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Permanent Tsb Group Analyst and Investor Presentation permanent tsb Group Analyst and Investor Presentation Please refer to the important information in disclaimer on pages 105 to 106 before continuing 12 March 2015 Today’s Presenters Jeremy Masding Glen Lucken Paul Byrne Group Chief Executive Officer Group Chief Financial Officer Group Treasurer David Curtis Shane O’Sullivan Niall O’Grady Group Chief Credit Officer Managing Director, Director, Asset Management Unit Transaction Banking, Savings and Investments 1 The Equity Story: An Overview • Well positioned for continued macroeconomic and banking sector recovery in Ireland • Conservative balance sheet and strong capital position • Legacy issues increasingly behind us • Simple business model targeting sustained and attractive returns over the medium term • Upside potential in the short term through pace of recovery and longer term through profitable growth 2 Order Of The Day 4 Commercial Operations 5 Funding, NIM, Trackers And 1 2 Liquidity 8 9 10 Comprehensive 3 Introduction Financial Assessment And To PTSB And Financial Targets Closing Remarks Performance Capital Plan Investment Case 6 Asset Quality 7 Arrears Management Note: Numbers in this presentation and its Appendix may not be the sum of their parts due to rounding 3 Section 1 Comprehensive Assessment and Capital Plan Comprehensive Assessment And Capital Plan: An Overview • SSM Outcome ‒ Provisioning levels validated by the Asset Quality Review ‒ Sufficiently capitalised in the Baseline Scenario ‒ Capital shortfall of €855m identified in the Adverse Scenario ‒ The Group’s Capital Plan is ‘Endorsed’ by the ECB/JST(a) with no major amendments • Capital Plan ‒ At least €330m of Management Actions ‒ €525m of new capital (€400m equity(b) + €125m AT1) ‒ Use of Funds includes repurchase of State Contingent Capital Note (CCN) of €400m (ineligible instrument for Capital Plan unless converted) (a) Joint Supervisory Team (b) Gross equity raise 5 Comprehensive Assessment: Outcome Asset Quality Review (AQR) Baseline Stress Test Scenario Adverse Stress Test Scenario 15% 15% 15% (0.3)% EndAQR - End BaselineEnd 10% - 10% 10% End Adverse ScenarioAdverseEnd Min. CET 1 Min. CET 1 - Ratio (8.0%) (4.0)% Ratio (8.0%) 13.1% 12.8% 12.8% 12.8% Min. CET 1 Scenario Ratio (5.5%) 5% 5% 5% 8.8% CET1 Ratio vsRequirements,CET1Ratio Year CET1 Ratio vsRequirements,Year RatioCET1 CET1 Ratio vsRequirements,Year RatioCET1 (11.9)% 1.0% 0% 0% 0% 2013 AQR Impact 2013 Capital 2013 Capital Baseline Minimum Test 2013 Capital Adverse Minimum Test Available Post-AQR Post-AQR Scenario Capital Post-AQR Scenario Capital Capital Impact Impact Capital Capital Capital Buffer vs Buffer vs Buffer vs 860 812 812 145 1,232 (855) 8.0% 8.0% 5.5% (€m) (€m) (€m) Capital Surplus in the AQR and Baseline Stress Test Capital Shortfall in the Adverse Stress Test Note: The AQR adjusted CET1 ratio of 12.8% is the starting point for the baseline and adverse scenarios 6 Capital Plan: The Capital Plan Has Been ‘Endorsed’ By ECB/JST Capital Plan • €855m capital shortfall in the Adverse Stress Test 10% excluded the €400m CCN which only qualifies as available capital upon conversion 8% • Capital Plan submitted to address shortfall included: – €525m of new capital, through a combination of Equity 6% Min. CET1 Ratio (5.5%) >3.1% >5.5% and AT1; and – At least €330m of capital from ‘Management Actions’ 4% (2014 actual performance, asset sales, technical (Transitional) items) Resulting 2016 >1.4% Capital Post-Capital Plan 2% 1.0% • The Group’s Capital Plan is ‘Endorsed’ by the ECB/JST Adverse Stress Test Scenario CET1 Ratio with no major amendments 0% CA Outcome Management Combination Of CA Outcome • Formal approval of the Capital Plan is subject to its Actions And New Equity And Post-Capital implementation – the Group has until July 26th to execute Technical AT1 Plan the outstanding elements of the plan; in particular, the Adjustment Capital Capital Raise Buffer/ (855) >330 525 >0 (Shortfall) (€m) 7 Section 2 Introduction To PTSB Group Organisation Group (Net Loans: €28.2bn) Core Bank Non-Core (Net Loans: €20.1bn) (Net Loans: €8.2bn) ‒ Full service retail bank across Current Accounts, Deposits, Mortgages, Credit Cards and Personal Loans RoI Non-Core UK Non-Core (Net Loans: €1.5bn) (Net Loans: €6.7bn)(b) ‒ Dedicated Asset Management Unit (AMU) ‒ Commercial Real ‒ Predominately CHL; a good platform for arrears management(a) Estate assets credit quality but low yield ‒ Sale of €0.8bn net loans Buy-To-Let mortgage book announced ‒ Sale of €3.5bn(c) net loans ‒ Remaining assets to be announced deleveraged over next 12 ‒ Remaining assets to be months deleveraged over next 12 months subject to minimum price thresholds Note: Figures are net loans as at 31 December 2014 and include assets classified as held for sale. See Appendix for full explanation of Core Bank/Non-Core split and for pro-forma for sales announced in March 2015 (a) Also manages CRE Non Performing (Residential) loans which are part of Non-Core (b) FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.78 as at 31 December 2014 9 (c) €3.5bn gross (€3.5bn net) based on FY2014 figure and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.73 as at 28 February 2015. €3.2bn gross (€3.2bn net) based on FY2014 and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.78 as at 31 December 2014 Group Overview Group Deposits FY2014 Financials PBI (IoM)(a) (€bn Unless Stated) Core Non-Core Group 3% Corporate Deposits 19.8 0.6 20.4 13% Net Loans 20.1 8.2 28.2 Retail Current Retail Provisions 2.5 1.2 3.7 Accounts (ex-Current 13% Accounts) RWA 11.3 3.5 14.8 57% Equity 2.3 Institutional 14% Total Operating Income (€m) 310 (2) 308 Total Deposits: €20.4bn Total Operating Expenses (€m) (356) (33) (389) Pre-Provision Loss (€m) (46) (35) (81) Group Loans Writeback/(Charge) Of Impairments (€m) 51 (9) 42 Non-Core Core Bank Exceptional Items (€m) 0 (9) (9) Net Loans: Net Loans: €8.2bn €20.1bn Profit/(Loss) Before Taxation (€m) 5 (53) (48) Non-Core 29% NIM (pre-ELG Fees) 1.21% na 0.90% Core HL Underlying Cost:Income Ratio(b) 86% nm 97% Consumer 53% Finance RoE na na (4.6)% 1% LDR 101% nm 138% Core BTL CET1 Ratio (Transitional) 14.2% 17% Group Net Loans: €28.2bn CET1 Ratio (Fully Loaded) 12.4% Note: See Appendix for full explanation of Core Bank/Non-Core split and for pro-forma as of June 2015 (a) Permanent Bank International Limited ("PBI") is a deposit business in the Isle of Man which, while considered core to the overall business of the Group, has historically been included in the Non-Core to enable the Group to hedge its GBP foreign exchange exposure more efficiently (b) Adjusted for non-recurring items. See Appendix for more details 10 Non-Core: Focused Deleveraging Means ‘Group Will Equal Core Bank’ By The Middle of 2016 Overview Exit Strategy • Sale of €1.5bn of gross (€0.8bn net) assets announced • €2.0bn CRE Non Performing portfolios Non-Core RoI • Management targeting a sale of remaining loans over the • €0.6bn CRE Performing portfolios next 12 months • Sale of €3.5bn(c) of gross (€3.5bn net) assets (c.50% of the • €6.5bn CHL portfolio outstanding CHL) and the CHL underwriting platform announced (a) Non-Core UK ‒ Low LTV, predominantly Trackers • Management targeting a sale of remaining CHL assets to • €0.3bn IPI(b) closed mortgage book be agreed at no more than a 10% discount to gross assets over next 12 months Note: Figures are gross loans as at 31 December 2014 (a) Non-Core UK also includes Permanent Bank International Limited ("PBI") deposits of €0.6bn. PBI is a deposit business in the Isle of Man which, while considered core to the overall business of the Group, has historically been included in the Non-Core to enable the Group to hedge its GBP foreign exchange exposure more efficiently (b) Irish Permanent Isle of Man (IoM) Limited; a closed mortgage book in the Isle of Man comprising €0.3bn residential loans (c) €3.5bn gross (€3.5bn net) based on FY2014 figure and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.73 as at 28 February 2015. €3.2bn gross (€3.2bn net) based on FY2014 and FX rate of EUR:GBP 0.78 as at 31 December 2014 11 Core Bank: Focused Domestic Retail Bank Well Positioned To Grow PTSB Overview RoI Current Account Market Share • Focused Domestic Retail Bank well placed to capture market 36% share: 30% 17% 13% – 1 million plus customers – 77 branches plus phone and web capability AIB BoI PTSB Ulster Note: Data is stock market share calculated based on results of polling – 2,321 FTEs Source: RedC Brand and Ad Tracking, Q4 2014 poll commissioned by PTSB • Pure retail offering with full service product suite RoI Total Deposits (€bn) • Well positioned to benefit from profitable growth opportunities in 51.2 a consolidated market and increasing credit demand 37.0 19.8 19.2 • Aiming for growth to achieve 13-17% share in key products: 3.5 (a) – Current Accounts AIB BoI PTSB Ulster KBC (a) Excludes PBI deposits – Retail Deposits Source: FY2014 for PTSB, AIB and BoI; FY2013 for Ulster and KBC – Residential Mortgage Lending RoI Gross Residential Mortgages (€bn) • Seeking to explore opportunities in: 36.3 25.6 22.9 20.1 – SME 11.3 – Consumer Finance AIB BoI PTSB Ulster KBC Source: FY2014 for PTSB, AIB and BoI; FY2013 for Ulster and KBC 12 Section 3 Investment Case Investment Themes • Increasing demand for credit as Irish economy recovers • Full service domestic retail bank well placed to capture market share 1 Capturing Profitable Growth • Attractive front book margins • Entry into SME market via OME(a) provides potential for further upside • NIM drag expected to be reduced by decreasing cost of funds • Funding and Liquidity expected to be strengthened by active balance sheet management 2 Managing The Legacy • Arrears Management expected to be enhanced by focus on best practice • Non-Core deleveraging plan clearly defined and under way • Strong pro-forma capital position with potential for dividends in the future 3 Maintaining A Strong • CCN to be repurchased and capital stack normalised Capital Position • Additional capital provides buffer for future stress tests, flexibility to accelerate deleveraging and potential for additional growth • Phase 1 cost base restructuring complete.
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