Nairobi Metropolitan 2020 Residential Report “A Buyer’S Market Amidst a Global Crisis”
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Nairobi Metropolitan 2020 Residential Report “A Buyer’s Market Amidst A Global Crisis” Date: July 26, 2020 Table of Contents 1 Overview of Real Estate in Kenya 2 Nairobi Metropolitan Residential Report A Introduction B Residential Market Performance C Investment Opportunity D Conclusion and Outlook 3 Appendix www.cytonn.com 2 I. Overview of Real Estate in Kenya Overview of Real Estate in Kenya Our outlook for the sector remains neutral, constrained by a weak macroeconomic environment due to the COVID-19 crisis Factor Characteristics Sentiment • The real estate sector grew by 5.3%, 1.2% points higher than 4.1% in 2018. This served as an indicator of the sector’s recovery despite a sluggish growth for the overall economy which grew by 5.4% down from 6.3% in 2018 Macro-economic Neutral Contribution • In 2020, we expect the sector’s growth rate to come under pressure on account of the ongoing crisis which has disrupted the sector in terms of sales as well as construction activities due to measures imposed by the government to spread the pandemic’s spread as well as the ensuing tough financial environment • As of 2019, average five-year returns for the real estate sector stood at 13.1% higher than the five-year bond, 91- day T-bills, and NASI averaging at 12.5%, 8.5% and 2.0%, respectively High Returns • We expect the sector to continue outperforming traditional asset classes and to continue attracting investors due Positive to its low correlation to other assets, profitability and relatively low volatility • The sector continues to attract more of institutional and international players with an absolute development capability. The focus on the affordable housing initiative, is expected to continue attracting international players, New and development financial institutions once global lockdowns are lifted Positive Players • In search for better margins, we also expect to see more joint venture deals and public-private partnerships at a time when access to financing remains a key challenge • Our outlook for the sector remains neutral due to the subdued macroeconomic environment and thus, waning demand. Additionally, the sector also continues to be constrained limited access to financing for both developers Market Outlook and off takers. However, we do expect the market to pick once the economy recovers and effective demand resurfaces, and once the government , through the KMRC, improves the mortgage market Neutral • The real estate sector has pockets of value especially housing for lower-middle to low-income earners in the residential sector, serviced apartments, and Mixed-Use Developments (MUDs) www.cytonn.com 4 Introduction to Real Estate in Kenya –Contribution to GDP Real Estate and construction sectors contribution to GDP remained at 12.5% in 2019, the same as the previous year 2010 2013 2016 2019 24.8 34.1 Agriculture 26.4 31.1 % % % % 7.5 Manufacturing 11.3 10.5 9.3 % % % % Wholesale & 7.7 8.0 7.2 7.6 Retail Trade % % % % Hospitality & 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.7 Tourism % % % % Real Estate & 12.8 12.4 12.7 12.5 Construction % % % % Source: KNBS www.cytonn.com 5 2. Nairobi Metropolitan Residential Report Executive Summary Average annual returns improved marginally in FY’20 to 5.0% compared to 4.7% last year on account of a vibrant rental market • To gauge residential performance in FY’20, we carried out research in 31 areas within the Nairobi Metropolitan Area (NMA). According to the research, average annual returns improved marginally in FY’20 to 5.0% compared to 4.7% last year on account of a vibrant rental market • However, price appreciation remained subdued averaging at (0.1%) compared to 0.3% in FY’19 and we expect this to continue in light on the ongoing Coronavirus pandemic • Rental yields in 2019/20 improved by 0.7% points, coming in at 5.0%, on average, from 4.3% in 2019/18, attributable to reduced supply in the face of a tough economic environment • On housing demand, majority of the demand remains in the lower mid-end and low income segments which account for 63.1% of the salaried Kenyans according to KNBS data. However, actual demand is expected to remain weak due to economic uncertainties with disposable incomes coming under pressure. In terms of supply, 2020 is expected to see reduced construction activities owing to the ongoing COVID-19 impact on the global economy and the subsequent effect on real estate fundamentals such as supply chain disruptions, reduced revenue collections coupled by insufficient access to credit. However, we have seen various developers seek alternative measures such as real estate investment trusts and bonds to meet their funding requirements. We expect to continue seeing this trend going forward • On the best areas to invest, Runda Mumwe and Ruiru present the best opportunity for detached units development driven by relatively high returns of 5.5% and 5.8%, respectively, in comparison to the detached market average of 4.6%, and relatively higher uptake of 24.1% and 20.6%, respectively • Westlands and Ruaka are the best opportunity for apartments also driven by uptake, 23.9% and 22.6%, respectively, coupled by solid fundamentals such as good infrastructure and presence of amenities, thus appealing to homebuyers • We expect developers to scale back on supply in the high-end and upper mid-end sectors given the existing supply against waning demand with developers shifting focus to differentiated and modern-day concepts such as mixed-use developments, especially in the upper mid-end markets, as well as niche markets in the lower mid-end and low-end segments, which have the highest uptake, thus potential for better returns. www.cytonn.com 7 Nairobi Metropolitan Residential Report 2020 – “A Buyer’s Market’ Amidst A Global Crisis’ Residential performance improved in FY’20 posting average total returns of 5.0% from 4.7% in FY’19 Value Area Summary Effect • According to KNBS, the number of Kenyans • The government’s affordable housing initiative is earning Kshs 50,000 and below decreased in expected to take a back seat as public funds are 2019 to 63.1% from 74.5%, indicating the channelled towards COVID-19 containment Demand & growth of the middle class. We expect the • With household disposable incomes coming Supply demand for housing to therefore continue rising under pressure, demand for affordable housing in the middle and lower income segments is expected to soar • Supply is expected to remain suppressed in • We expect private drivers to tap into this niche 2020 considering the ongoing pandemic • Prices appreciation remained subdued averaging at (0.1%) in FY’20 compared to 0.3% in FY’19 • We expect investors to focus on the rental yields as property prices are likely to increase once the • However, rental yields improved significantly averaging Returns economy regains momentum 5.0% from 4.7% the previous year, indicating a rebounding in the sector • Investment opportunity for detached units is in areas • We expect to see investors shifting focus to such as Ruiru and Runda Mumwe driven by presence differentiated concepts such as mixed-Use of relatively high returns and uptake as well as developments which yield better returns Opportunity & availability for development class land Outlook • We also expect investment in areas offering the • Investment opportunity for apartments is in areas highest uptake, and affordable land for such as Westlands and Ruaka driven by uptake, development particularly in satellite towns returns as well as good infrastructure where infrastructural developments are ongoing We expect the residential sector to remain resilient with activity picking up pace as the economy regains momentum in Q3’2020. The market will have pent up demand, and due to the dented incomes, developers are expected to focus on low-cost housing in the lower mid-end segment as well as modern-day concepts such as live-work-play controlled communities for the upper mid-end markets www.cytonn.com 8 A. Introduction Key Factors Affecting Residential Demand in 2020 In 2020, demand is expected to remain muted owing to slowdown in economic activities and decline in disposable incomes Factor Characteristics • The need for affordable has continued to soar considering the current economic downturn which has seen increased unemployment and the subsequent drop in disposable incomes. Additionally, the government’s Housing Deficit Affordable Housing initiative continues to lag behind expectations despite the growing housing deficit in Kenya which is estimated at 2.0 mn units • According to the 2019 census data, Kenya currently has a population of 47.6 mn persons, growing at 2.2% p.a. which is 1.0% higher than the global average. Additionally, Kenya’s urban population continues to grow Demographics rapidly accounting for 31.1% of the total population and estimated to grow by 4.3% p.a. according to the World Bank. This demographic trend is expected to continue supporting housing demand in urban areas, exacerbating the current housing deficit estimated at 2.0 mn units • The repeal of the interest cap regime in November 2019 was expected to enhance market liquidity and thereby stimulate sectors such as real estate which are capital intensive Access to Credit • Additionally, the Kenya Mortgage Refinancing Company is slated to begin refinancing mortgage portfolios in Q3’2020 and with this, we expect homebuyers to have access to affordable credit for home-buying • According to the KNBS Economic Survey 2020, average earnings grew by 2.3% in 2019 compared to 3.2% in 2018, attributable to relatively high inflation rates