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Trump Success? Conventional Measures in the Era of an Unconventional President
Trump Success? Conventional Measures in the Era of an Unconventional President Jon R. Bond Texas A&M University [email protected] and Manny Teodoro Texas A&M University [email protected] Prepared for Presentation at the 115th Annual Meeting & Exhibition of the American Political Science Association August 29 – September 1, 2019 Washington, DC Trump Success? Conventional Measures in the Era of an Unconventional President Abstract Conventional indicators reported in CQ’s 2017 Presidential Support Study show that President Trump racked up a “Record Success Rate”, winning 100 percent of House votes on which he expressed a position. Although presidency scholars have long recognized that winning roll call votes is not an indication of presidential influence, Trump’s unconventional style and his willful ignorance of Congress and basic details of the policies he “supports” lead us to question whether the results of roll call votes should even be interpreted as presidential success. Including this unconventional president in the study of a still small n of presidents requires innovative indicators that do not rely exclusively on traditional Presidential Support Scores that compare members on a static zero to 100 scale. Taking cues from FiveThirtyEight and from the field of sabermetrics, this paper presents two novel metrics that estimate whether House members’ support for the 11 elected presidents from Eisenhower to Trump is higher or lower than should be expected relative to differing political conditions. One metric, Support Above Expectations (SAE), estimates whether members’ presidential support is higher or lower than should be expected given electoral conditions, partisanship, polarization. This metric builds on 538’s “Trump plus-minus” score. -
Xerox University Microfilms 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 76-16,438 KIM, Haingja, 1913- a COMPARATIVE STUDY of the U.S
INFORMATION TO USERS This material was produced from a microfilm copy of the original document. While the most advanced technological means to photograph and reproduce this document have been used, the quality is heavily dependent upon the quality of the original submitted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help you understand markings or patterns which may appear on this reproduction. 1. The sign or "target" for pages apparentlY lacking from the document photographed is "Missing Page(s)". If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting thru an image and duplicating adjacent pages to insure you complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a large round black mark, it is an indication that the photographer suspected that the copy may have moved during exposure and thus cause a blurred image. You will find a good image of the page in the adjacent fr~me. 3. When a map, drawing or chart, etc., was part of the material being photographed the photographer followed a definite method in "sectioning" the material. It is customary to begin photoing at the upper left hand corner of a large sheet and to continue photoing from left to right in equal sections with a small overlap. If necessary, sectioning is continued again - beginning below the first row and continuing on until complete. 4. The majority of users indicate that the textual content is of greatest value, however, a somewhat higher quality reproduction could be made from "photographs" if essential to the understanding of the dissertation. -
Melissa Bean United States Representative Democrat from Illinois
★ appendix a ★ First-Term Women Members of the 109th Congress (2005–2007)* Image courtesy of the Member Melissa Bean united states representative democrat from illinois Congressional Committees: Financial Services Small Business Born: Melissa Luburich, January 22, 1962, in Chicago, Illinois Family: Married to Alan Bean; two daughters, Victoria and Michelle Education: Graduated from Maine East High School, Park Ridge, IL, 1979; A.A., Oakton Community College, 1982; B.A., Roosevelt University, Chicago, IL, 2002 sources Military: N/A Biographical Directory of the United States Congress, 1774— Political Career: Unsuccessful candidate for 2005 (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, election to the 108th Congress in 2002 2005); New Member Pictorial Directory, 109th Congress Professional Career: President, sales consulting (Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 2005); firm “Meet the New Members,” 8 November 2004, Roll Call; Members’ official U.S. House Web sites at Publications: N/A http://www.house.gov. * Current through August I, 2006 930 ★ women in congress Image courtesy of the Member Congressional Pictorial Directory 109th Congress Thelma Drake Virginia Foxx united states representative united states representative republican from virginia republican from north carolina Congressional Committees: Congressional Committees: Armed Services Agriculture Education and the Workforce Education and the Workforce Resources Government Reform Born: November 20, 1949, in Elyria, Ohio Born: Virginia Palmieri, 29 June 1943, in Bronx, New -
Women in the United States Congress: 1917-2008
Order Code RL30261 Women in the United States Congress: 1917-2008 Updated July 23, 2008 Mildred L. Amer Specialist in American National Government Government and Finance Division Women in the United States Congress: 1917-2008 Summary A record 91 women serve in the 110th Congress: 75 in the House (55 Democrats and 20 Republicans) and 16 in the Senate (11 Democrats and 5 Republicans). A record 94 women have served during the 110th Congress, but three died during the first session, Juanita Millender-McDonald (D-CA), Jo Ann Davis (R-VA), and Julia Carson (D-IN). The first woman elected to Congress was Representative Jeanette Rankin (R- MT, 1917-1919, 1941-1943). The first woman to serve in the Senate was Rebecca Latimer Felton (D-GA). She was appointed in 1922 and served for only one day. A total of 246 women have served in Congress, 158 Democrats and 88 Republicans. Of these women, 211 have served only in the House, 28 only in the Senate, and seven in both houses. The figures include one Delegate each from Guam, Hawaii, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Of the 218 women who have served in the House, 38 were elected to fill vacancies caused by the death of their husbands. Sixteen of the 38 were subsequently elected to additional terms. Twenty-five women have been elected to fill other vacancies. Edith Nourse Rogers (R-MA), who served in the House for 35 years, holds the record for length of service by a woman in Congress. Margaret Chase Smith (R- ME), the first woman elected to the House and Senate, holds the record for Senate service by a woman with 24 years. -
Endangered Species Act Under Fire: Controversies, Science, Values & the Law Dissertation Directed by Professor Susan E
ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT UNDER FIRE: CONTROVERSIES, SCIENCE, VALUES & THE LAW by NICOLE J. ROSMARINO B.A., Syracuse University, 1993 M.A., University of Colorado at Boulder, 1996 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado at Boulder in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science 2002 iii Rosmarino, Nicole J. (Ph.D.-Political Science) Endangered Species Act Under Fire: Controversies, Science, Values & the Law Dissertation directed by Professor Susan E. Clarke ABSTRACT My central purpose was to explore whether Congress intended to protect ecosystems and err on the side of species protection in the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and whether the Act’s legislative history transcends a simple economy versus environment dialectic. I examined the ESA’s legislative history from its passage in 1973 through key amendments in 1978, 1982, and 1988 by analyzing the values actors invoked, their rhetorical strategies, and their use of ecosystem and precautionary themes. I identified actors’ expressed values and preferred outcomes within congressional hearings and floor debate. I assessed their value usage using cross- tabulations and log likelihood ratios. The use of ecosystem protection and the precautionary approach was reviewed via content analysis. I analyzed these themes within conflict areas such as the Tellico Dam controversy in 1978 and wolf reintroduction in 1988. I considered general expressions regarding ecosystem protection and erring on the side of biodiversity protection given scientific uncertainty. I found that ecological values and ecosystem protection arguments were invoked consistently throughout the legislative history. Actors expressing ecological values were likely to support strengthening species wildlife protection. -
Complete Document / HAWAU-Y-85-002
PISHERY FEDElkALISN»' -INRRRGOVERNNmNTM DECISION@AXING IN PISSERY NMNhQENENT IN MWAII NATIONAI. SEA GRANT DEPOSITORY, PELL LIBRARY 3~JlLDING URI, NAi H~ i:iNSETTBAY CAMPUS NARRAC iNSETT,R I 02882 Rose T. Pfund B.A., University of Hawaii, 1951 H.Ed., University of Hawaii, 1978 Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of Graduate School of Public and International Affairs in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy University of Pittsburgh 1985 c! Copyright by Rose Toshiko Pfund l985 All Rights Reserved PS Rll ISII': 1%RIWSPR XN PISHERY NANhGENENT IM MNAII Rose T. Pf und, Ph. D. University of Pittsburgh, 1985 Regional f ishery management councils RFNCs!, composed of federal and state fishery administrators and f ishers, were established under the Nagnuson Fishery Conservation and Man- agement Act MPCMA! of 1976 to operationalize this newest f orm of intergovernmental administration "f ishery f ederal- ism.' This study on the implementation of the NFCMA in Hawaii was centered on two aspects of organizational behav- ior: ! the pervasive influence of historical antecedents and organizational norms on the operations of the Western Pacific RPNC and ! the sociology of fishery decisionmakers' information sources and their ability to use new information for problem solving. Federal and state laws and congressional and archival documents provided background data on the formulation of the NFCMA, legal origins of state and federal fishery agencies, and Hawaii-United States relations. Six classes of f ishery influentials were characterized by their openness-closedness profile, a psychological index which was developed as one part of this study. The inf ormation network of administra- tors was used to develop a map of the information sources and flow for one state and two federal fishery agencies. -
Download- Ed From: Books at JSTOR, EBSCO, Hathi Trust, Internet Archive, OAPEN, Project MUSE, and Many Other Open Repositories
Series Editors Lynne Itagaki, University of Missouri Daniel Rivers, Ohio State University Founding Editors Claire Potter, Wesleyan University Renee Romano, Oberlin College Advisory Board Mary Dudziak, University of Southern California Devin Fergus, Hunter College, City University of New York David Greenberg, Rutgers University Shane Hamilton, University of Georgia Jennifer Mittelstadt, Rutgers University Stephen Pitti, Yale University Robert Self, Brown University Siva Vaidhyanathan, University of Virginia Judy Wu, University of California, Irvine Deep Cut Science, Power, and the Unbuilt Interoceanic Canal Christine Keiner © by the University of Georgia Press Athens, Georgia www.ugapress.org Some rights reserved CC BY-NC-ND This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives . International License. Note to users: A Creative Commons license is only valid when it is applied by the person or entity that holds rights to the licensed work. Works may contain components (e.g., photographs, illustrations, or quotations) to which the rightsholder in the work cannot apply the license. It is ultimately your responsibility to independently evaluate the copyright status of any work or component part of a work you use, in light of your intended use. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/./ Most University of Georgia Press titles are available from popular e-book vendors. Library of Congress Control Number: ISBN: (ebook: open access edition) ISBN: (hardback: alk. paper) ISBN: (paperback: alk. paper) ISBN: (ebook: standard edition) An earlier version of material from chapters and appeared, in very dierent form, within Ashley Carse, Christine Keiner, Pamela M. Henson, Marixa Lasso, Paul S. -
![Presidential Files; Folder: 1/7/80 [3]; Container 145](https://docslib.b-cdn.net/cover/3168/presidential-files-folder-1-7-80-3-container-145-6373168.webp)
Presidential Files; Folder: 1/7/80 [3]; Container 145
1/7/80 [3] Folder Citation: Collection: Office of Staff Secretary; Series: Presidential Files; Folder: 1/7/80 [3]; Container 145 To See Complete Finding Aid: http://www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov/library/findingaids/Staff_Secretary.pdf THE WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON FOR THE RECORD: OUT ON 1/8/80 .· . · · 1� TRANS�� TTAL l �· ... --�- u -� .,--'---- ). �- The President's Advisory Committee for Women 200 Constitution Avenue, N.W.,Washington, D.C. 20210 Room N-3437 (202) 523-6707 December 18, 1979 HONORARY CHAIR: Judy Carter CHAIR: Dear Mr. Pres i dent: Lynda Johnson Robb CHA R Y1�E I S: Your Adv i sory Comm i ttee is pleased to transm it to you a a e e ii Cham bers comprehens ive report on ratificat io. n of the Equal Rights M ql�n B . E 1za bet h K oon tz Amendment, wh1ch. you requested when we met w1th you on October 23. We were impressed at that meeting with your MEMBERS: comm i tment to play a sign ificant role in ga ining the amend ment's passage in the three necessary states, and th is OwanahAnderson report will outl ine those steps we feel are imperat ive to Un ita Blackwell Bombeck aSSUre that g 0 a 1 • Erma jack T. Conway Miriam I. Cruz T h e rep 0 rt wa s prepared i n c 0 n j u n c t i 0 n w i t h ERA mer i ca , a ade e e a a L ur H rr r coalition of more than 200 organ. -
Congressional Campaign” of the Benton L
The original documents are located in Box 1, folder “Campaign Records - 1970 - Congressional Campaign” of the Benton L. Becker Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Copyright Notice The copyright law of the United States (Title 17, United States Code) governs the making of photocopies or other reproductions of copyrighted material. Benton Becker donated to the United States of America his copyrights in all of his unpublished writings in National Archives collections. Works prepared by U.S. Government employees as part of their official duties are in the public domain. The copyrights to materials written by other individuals or organizations are presumed to remain with them. If you think any of the information displayed in the PDF is subject to a valid copyright claim, please contact the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library. Digitized from Box 1 of the Benton Becker Papers at the Gerald R. Ford Presidential Library 1. Between 1968 and 1973 the AFL Maritime Trade sponsored \'l e_dnesday afternoon cocktail luncheons at \vhich various congressmen spoke. Was Gerald Ford one of them? How many times did he speak? How much money did he receive for each speech? Did he list these fees on his IRS report? Did he write his own speeches on each occasion or were they \vritten by the Union? 2. Did ih.e President receive contributions from an illegal fund set up by Seafarers International Union in 1962? According to a Justice Department indictment against the Union and its officials which was delivered in 1970 certain congressmen received a total of $750, 000 from that fund between 1964 and 1968. -
A Changing of the Guard Traditionalists, Feminists, and the New Face of Women in Congress, 1955–1976
A Changing of the Guard traditionalists, feminists, and the new face of women in congress, 1955–1976 The third generation of women in Congress, the 39 individuals who entered the House and the Senate between 1955 and 1976, legislated during an era of upheaval in America. Overlapping social and political movements during this period —the civil rights movement of the 1950s and 1960s, the groundswell of protest against American intervention in the Vietnam War in the mid- to late 1960s, the women’s liberation movement and the sexual revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, and the Watergate Scandal and efforts to reform Congress in the 1970s—provided experience and impetus for a new group of feminist reformers. Within a decade, an older generation of women Members, most of whom believed they could best excel in a man’s world by conforming to male expectations, was supplanted by a younger group who challenged narrowly prescribed social roles and long-standing From left, Congresswoman Martha 1 Griffiths of Michigan, journalist congressional practices. May Craig, House Rules Committee Several trends persisted, however. As did the pioneer generation and the second Chairman Howard W. Smith of generation, the third generation of women accounted for only a small fraction of Virginia, and Congresswoman Katharine the total population of Congress. At the peak of the third generation, 20 women St. George of New York pose for a photo served in the 87th Congress (1961–1963)—about 3.7 percent. The latter 1960s were shortly after the House added a sexual discrimination amendment to Title VII the nadir for new women entering the institution; only 11 were elected or appointed of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. -
Onto the National Stage Congresswomen in an Age of Crises, 1935–1954
Onto the National Stage congresswomen in an age of crises, 1935–1954 Thirty-six women entered Congress between 1935 and 1954, a tumultuous two decades that encompassed the Great Depression, World War II, and the start of the Cold War. Women participated in America’s survival, recovery, and ascent to world power in important and unprecedented ways; they became shapers of the welfare state, workers during wartime, and members of the military. During this time the nation’s capital took on increasing importance in the everyday lives of average Americans. The Great Depression and the specter of global war transformed the role of the federal government, making it a provider and protector. Like their male counterparts, women in Congress legislated to provide economic relief to their constituents, debated the merits of government intervention to cure the economy, argued about America’s role in world affairs, and grappled with challenges and opportunities during wartime. Distinct trends persisted from the pioneer generation of women in Congress. Second-generation women still made up only a small fraction of the total congressional membership. At their peak, 15 women served in the 83rd Congress (1953–1955)—about 2.8 percent. These numbers afforded women scant leverage to pursue a unified agenda, though few seemed inclined to champion what would later be called “women’s issues.” The widow-familial succession remained for women a primary route to political office. Subtle changes, however, slowly advanced women’s status on Capitol Hill. By and large, women elected to Congress between 1935 and 1954 had more experience as politicians or as party officials than did their predecessors. -
A Changing of the Guard Traditionalists, Feminists, and the New Face of Women in Congress, 1955–1976
A Changing of the Guard traditionalists, feminists, and the new face of women in congress, 1955–1976 The third generation of women in Congress, the 39 individuals who entered the House and the Senate between 1955 and 1976, legislated during an era of upheaval in America. Overlapping social and political movements during this period —the civil rights movement of the 1950s and 1960s, the groundswell of protest against American intervention in the Vietnam War in the mid- to late 1960s, the women’s liberation movement and the sexual revolution of the 1960s and 1970s, and the Watergate Scandal and efforts to reform Congress in the 1970s—provided experience and impetus for a new group of feminist reformers. Within a decade, an older generation of women Members, most of whom believed they could best excel in a man’s world by conforming to male expectations, was supplanted by a younger group who challenged narrowly prescribed social roles and long-standing congres- sional practices.1 Several trends persisted, however. As did the pioneer generation and the second generation, the third generation of women accounted for only a small fraction of the total population of Congress. At the peak of the third generation, 20 women served in the 87th Congress (1961–1963)—about 3.7 percent. The latter 1960s were the nadir for new women entering the institution; only 11 were elected or appointed to Representatives Bella Abzug (left) and Shirley Chisholm of New York confer outside a committee hearing room in the early 1970s. Abzug and Chisholm represented a new type of feminist Congresswoman who entered Congress during the 1960s and 1970s.