RUSSELL: ENVIRONMENTAL INSECURITY IN SAUDI ARABIA SAUDI ARABIA: THE STRATEGIC DIMENSIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL INSECURITY James A. Russell Dr. Russell is an associate professor in the Department of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, CA.* audi Arabia sits in the middle of Other indicators have emerged point- the world’s climate furnace. There ing to inexorable climate-change trends in are fewer hotter, drier places on Saudi Arabia and the wider Middle East. the planet, and it’s only going to The summer of 2015 saw a “heat dome” Sget worse as the world continues to dump settle over the region, sending tempera- carbon into the atmosphere. Since 1995, tures skyward — a harbinger of what is the world’s atmosphere has seen carbon to come.4 As noted by New York Times amounts increase from 360 parts per mil- columnist Tom Friedman, a heat index of lion (ppm) to an estimated record-crushing 163 degrees Fahrenheit was reported in 400 in 2015.1 Some researchers predict the Iranian city of Bandhar Mahshar on an increase in temperature of around 3 July 31, 2015, described by a weatherman degrees Celsius throughout the Middle at the time as “one of the most extreme East by 2050. According to climate-change readings ever in the world.”5 Meanwhile, researchers, the Arabian Peninsula even- in the midst of their war with the Islamic tually will become too hot for people to State, Iraqi citizens in Baghdad rose up in remain outdoors for more than six hours spontaneous protest at the inability of the at one time. Writing in the journal Nature government to deliver enough electricity to Climate Change, Jeremy Pal and Elfatih keep the city’s air conditioners running. As Elfatir categorically state, “by the end of noted in a poignant report describing ev- the century certain population centres in eryday life in Baghdad during the summer the same region are likely to experience of 2015, “The lucky ones drive around in temperature levels that are intolerable to their cars with the air conditioning on, visit humans owing to the consequences of shopping malls, or wait for the air coolers increasing concentrations of anthropogenic to switch on and huddle around them in greenhouse gases (GHGs).”2 Quite simply, a single room. Those without that where- these temperatures will overwhelm the hu- withal find cool where they can, sometimes man body’s capacity to cool itself through swimming in dirty, sewage-tainted pools ventilation and sweating.3 and canals.”6 * The author wishes to thank Robert Springborg for comments on an earlier draft. The views expressed here are his own. © 2016, The Author Middle East Policy © 2016, Middle East Policy Council 1 MIDDLE EAST POLICY, VOL. XXIII, NO. 2, SUMMER 2016 Israel in September 2015 experienced gradual that it’s difficult to make a direct its worst sandstorm since record keep- connection to the weather.”11 This perfect ing began, a storm almost certainly made storm indeed will break over Saudi Arabia worse by abandoned farmland in drought- and the Middle East during the rest of the stricken and war-torn Syria.7 During the century — and we have almost certainly storm, air pollution in Jerusalem reached only witnessed the first cloudburst. 173 times the national average, and power usage broke all national records.8 The A GATHERING STORM same storm produced high winds and tor- There has been plenty of warning of rential rains in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, and the region’s building environmental catas- undoubtedly played a role in the collapse trophe. As poignantly noted by researchers of a crane that killed 107 and injured 238.9 in 2009, “The Arab countries are in many Elsewhere in the Gulf, Iran remained in the ways among the most vulnerable in the grip of a seven-year drought as reservoir world to the potential impacts of climate levels throughout the country sank to new change, the most significant of which are lows.10 increased average temperatures, less and These extreme cases will become more erratic precipitation, and sea-level future norms, regardless of the December rise (SLR), in a region which already suf- 2015 Paris Agreement. The tidal wave of fers from aridity, recurrent drought and looming environmental stresses adds yet water scarcity.”12 another systemic factor to a region already The year 2015 was the hottest since torn asunder by civil wars, failed states, data started being collected in the late regional balance-of-power conflicts, mili- nineteenth century — coming on the heels tant Islamic extremism, massive refugee of records set in 2010 and 2014.13 The populations, foreign military interventions, summer 2015 heat wave in the Middle and oppressive governments seeking to East comes after five Arab countries set rein in their citizens’ demands for change. new high-temperature readings in 2011.14 The world is seeing only the opening phase Some scientists predict that the succes- of a multidimensional crisis that promises sively hotter annual temperature readings to get progressively worse. While changes may suggest a dramatically faster overall in the weather and further deterioration of increase in the world’s temperature.15 As the environment may not appear as seri- temperatures keep rising, the region is go- ous as civil wars and terrorist bombings, ing to become even drier. The Middle East the long-term impact of these changes may already contains less than 1 percent of the be just as serious. As noted by Haaretz world’s fresh water resources and is gener- contributor David Rosenberg, “It’s easy to ally recognized as the most water-stressed imagine the sudden emergence of a Mad environment on the planet. By 2040, pro- Max world where environmental disaster jections by the World Resources Institute has plunged humanity into war, famine indicate that the Middle East will contain and financial chaos. More likely, we’ll 14 of the 33 most water-stressed countries experience climate change as a creeping on the planet.16 Summers will get hotter process with heat waves and droughts that and winters shorter and drier, with annual disrupt normal life for short periods, or rainfall forecast to decrease by as much whose economic and political impact is so as 20 percent over the rest of the century. 2 RUSSELL: ENVIRONMENTAL INSECURITY IN SAUDI ARABIA Some estimates suggest that annual rainfall an epic water crisis as a result of persistent may decline by as much as 50 percent.17 drought and disastrous water management. All but six Arab countries of the Mid- Over the last 50 years, it has exhausted 70 dle East suffer from freshwater scarcity, percent of its groundwater.22 Jordan and defined by the World Bank’s minimum re- Saudi Arabia are sucking an estimated 9 quirement as 1,000 square meters per per- billion cubic meters a year from the Disi/ son per year. What little freshwater there Saq aquifers — water that has been under- is above ground will decline significantly ground for tens of thousands of years and by the end has also been of the cen- For centuries, the MENA population found to con- tury. Higher hovered around 30 million, reaching tain poten- temperatures tially danger- will cause a an estimated 60 million early in the ous levels of reduction of twentieth century. ... By 1950, the region’s natural radia- water runoff population had reached 100 million; tion.23 Today, of 10 percent an estimated by 2050, at today it is estimated at 340-350 million 50 percent of the same time and is projected to increase to 588 million Saudi Ara- that demand by 2050. bia’s fresh- for freshwater water comes is forecast to increase by 60 percent.18 Two out of the ground. In short, the region’s of the region’s major aboveground fresh- already scarce natural supplies of water — water sources, the Jordan and Euphrates rainfall and aquifers — are drying up. Rivers, are predicted to see dramatically Further stress on freshwater supplies decreased water flows by the end of the is now coming in the form of salt-water century.19 Those aboveground sources that intrusion from sea-level rises (SLR). Ac- remain will be severely stressed by pollu- cording to the Intergovernmental Panel on tion and decrepit public-works infrastruc- Climate Change (IPCC), the average rate tures. Researchers estimate that several of sea-level increase has doubled since cities in the Middle East lose as much as 1993 to an annual rate of 3.2 millimeters 40 percent of their freshwater due to leaky a year. Researchers forecast annual SLR pipes.20 of 16 millimeters a year by 2081. By the The story of the region’s underground end of the twenty-first century, the world’s sources of freshwater is not any better. oceans may rise a total of three feet as Underground aquifers are being sucked ice in the Arctic and Antarctic inexorably dry by growing, freshwater-hungry so- melts.24 If the West Antarctic ice sheet cieties. In war-torn Yemen, for example, breaks apart, researchers estimate that the the capital of Sanaa and its projected world’s oceans could rise by as much as 12 population of over 4 million may exhaust feet by the end of the century.25 Egypt is its groundwater by 2025. Some sources the regional state most vulnerable to SLR, estimate that as much as 50 percent of although the Gulf states will not be im- Yemen’s 24 million people already do not mune. An estimated 6 percent of Egypt’s have access to safe drinking water.21 Iran GDP is at risk with an SLR of 1 meter.