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Table of Contents Long Range Solid Waste Management Plan Environmental Assessment Waste Quantity Projections and Existing Environment Profile Draft - June 2005 Long Range Solid Waste Management Plan Environmental Assessment Waste Quantity Projections and Existing Environment Profile TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 1 2.0 WASTE QUANTITIES PROJECTIONS ............................................................... 1 2.1 Population Projections ............................................................................... 1 3.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE MUSKOKA ENVIRONMENT ........................................ 8 3.1 Muskoka Overall Characteristics ............................................................... 8 REFERENCES.............................................................................................................. 22 LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 District of Muskoka Municipalities Permanent Population Projections............................................................. 2 Table 2.2 Residential Waste Generation Rates......................................................... 3 Table 2.3 IC&I Waste Disposal Rates........................................................................ 4 Table 2.4 Biosolids Generation Rates ....................................................................... 4 Table 2.5 Waste Generation and Remaining Disposal Capacity .............................. 5 Table 3.1 Historically Significant Buildings and Structures ...................................... 13 Table 3.2 Muskoka Population (Statistics Canada, 2001) ....................................... 14 Table 3.3 Estimated Permanent Population Projections 2006-2021........................ 15 Table 3.4 Labour Force by Industry Type ................................................................ 20 LIST OF FIGURES (At end of Report) Figure 1 Muskoka Study Area Figure 2 Physiography and Quarternary Geology Figure 3 Muskoka Watersheds Figure 4 Gravenhurst Natural Features Figure 5 Bracebridge Natural Features Figure 6 Huntsville Natural Features Figure 7 Georgian Bay Natural Features Figure 8 Lake of Bays Natural Features Figure 9 Muskoka Lakes Natural Features M:\PROJECTS\DRAFT\03\032633\Reports\Problem Identification\Waste Quantities and Existing Environment Draft June'05.doc Draft - June 2005 Page i Long Range Solid Waste Management Plan Environmental Assessment Waste Quantity Projections and Existing Environment Profile 1.0 INTRODUCTION The District of Muskoka (Muskoka) is preparing a Long Range Solid Waste Management Plan to determine the preferred way to meet the waste management needs of the community until at least 2035. The plan will consider opportunities for both waste diversion and waste disposal. In the Fall of 2004, an Environmental Assessment (EA) Terms of Reference was prepared documenting the planning process required to obtain EA approval for the disposal component of the solid waste management plan. The EA Terms of Reference were approved in January 2005. Two of the initial steps in Muskoka’s EA are to 1) describe the waste management problem/opportunity, ie. need for additional waste disposal capacity, and 2) profile the existing environment potentially affected by the proposed undertaking. This report documents both steps. 2.0 WASTE QUANTITIES PROJECTIONS In order to determine the future waste quantities requiring handling by Muskoka, a number of factors have to be taken into consideration and include: • population projections; • waste generation rates; and • diversion rates. The following sections provide additional information on each. 2.1 Population Projections Muskoka retained Marshall Macklin Monaghan (MMM) to prepare a twenty year permanent population projection based on the 2001 census data.1 The report prepared by MMM concluded that the permanent population is expected to increase by approximately 5,500 people by 2021. This represents an increase of approximately 10.4% or, on an annual basis, just over 0.5%. The report outlined that the growth rate is less than previous projections but is reflective of general trends in current demographic profiles, declining birth rates and migration in rural Ontario. 1 District Municipality of Muskoka, Permanent Population Projections 2001 – 2021, April 2004, Marshall Macklin Monaghan Draft - June 2005 Page 1 Long Range Solid Waste Management Plan Environmental Assessment Waste Quantity Projections and Existing Environment Profile For the purpose of the EA, the projections for 2001 to 2021 developed by MMM were used. A population increase of 0.5% per year was used beyond 2021 to project the population to 2035. The population projections to 2035 are shown in Table 2.1. TABLE 2.1 DISTRICT OF MUSKOKA MUNICIPALITIES PERMANENT POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2035 Bracebridge 13,751 14,312 14,767 14,984 15,228 15,629 16,040 16,376 Georgian Bay 2,176 2,176 2,176 2,177 2,177 2,234 2,293 2,341 Gravenhurst 10,899 11,248 11,529 11,662 11,811 12,122 12,440 12,702 Huntsville 17,338 18,268 19,032 19,398 19,813 20,334 20,689 21,307 Lake of Bays 2,900 2,946 2,983 3,000 3,020 3,099 3,181 3,248 Muskoka Lakes 6,042 6,250 5,417 6,4997 6,586 6,759 6,937 7.083 District of 53,106 55,200 56,905 57,719 58,635 60,177 61,760 63,056 Muskoka Based on these projections, it is anticipated that the permanent population in Muskoka will increase to 63,056 by 2035. Muskoka also has a significant seasonal population which has been estimated at 100,000 persons. The significant seasonal population spikes will be accounted for in the waste generation rates. The waste generation rates are based on the entire year and account for the spikes in population during the recreational season. 2. Waste Generation Rates Three different waste streams are handled by Muskoka and include: • residential; • IC&I; and • biosolids. In order to project future generation rates, each has to be dealt with separately. Each stream is discussed in greater detail below. Residential Waste Stream The total residential waste handled by Muskoka between 2001 and 2004 is summarized in Table 2.2. Draft - June 2005 Page 2 Long Range Solid Waste Management Plan Environmental Assessment Waste Quantity Projections and Existing Environment Profile TABLE 2.2 RESIDENTIAL WASTE GENERATION RATES 2001 2002 2003 2004 Waste Landfilled 16,821 17,809 19,087 23,607 (tonnes) Waste Diverted (tonnes) 11,561 8,532 11,068 9,740 Total Waste (tonnes) 28,382 26,341 30,154 33,347 Permanent Population 53,106 53,525 53,944 54,363 kg/person/year 534 492 559 613 The per capita residential waste generation rate over the past four years has ranged from 492 to 613 kg/person/year. The average generation rate over the past four years is 550 kg/person/year, although it has been on an upward trend since 2002. For the purpose of projecting the residential waste stream, the generation rate of 600 kg/person/year will be used. It is 9% above the Muskoka average for the last four years and comparable to the 2002 generation rate in Ontario based on Statistics Canada survey data as discussed below. This residential generation rate uses the yearly totals and therefore takes into consideration the seasonal influx of residents during the recreational season. According to a Statistics Canada survey in 2002, the residential waste generation rate in Ontario was 363 kg/person/year. This is lower than Muskoka’s generation rate because it does not account for the seasonal population. The seasonal population for Muskoka is estimated at 100,000 persons; if we assume that on average each person spends approximately four months in Muskoka, the equivalent permanent population would be 33,000, for an average total population in Muskoka of 86,500 over the past four years, or 1.62 times the permanent population. If we add this seasonal population factor to the Stats Can residential rate we get 588 kg/person/year, which is comparable to the Muskoka generation rate of 600 kg/person/year. IC&I Waste Stream The total IC&I waste handled by Muskoka between 2001 and 2004 is summarized in Table 2.3. Draft - June 2005 Page 3 Long Range Solid Waste Management Plan Environmental Assessment Waste Quantity Projections and Existing Environment Profile TABLE 2.3 IC&I WASTE DISPOSAL RATES 2001 2002 2003 2004 Waste Landfilled 17,115 15,201 17,523 20,535 (tonnes) Permanent Population 53,106 53,525 53,944 54,363 kg/person/year 322 284 325 378 In addition to the above IC&I waste, other IC&I waste is being exported out of Muskoka each year. Muskoka has no control over this waste and therefore cannot predict if it will return to local landfills. The IC&I waste disposal rate has been on an upward trend since 2002. According to the Statistics Canada survey, in 2002 in Ontario 6.2 million tonnes of IC&I and C&D waste was disposed (after diversion of 1.44 million tonnes, or approximately 19%); this is equivalent to a disposal rate of 513 kg/person/year, much higher than the disposal rates in Muskoka over the past four years, the difference likely being exported out of the District. Therefore, the disposal rate to be used for the IC&I sector is 500 kg/person/year beginning in 2006. Biosolids The total amount of biosolids landfilled by Muskoka between 2001 and 2004 is summarized in Table 2.4. TABLE 2.4 BIOSOLIDS GENERATION RATES 2001 2002 2003 2004 Biosolids Landfilled 3,028 4,418 4,178 4,100 (tonnes) Permanent Population 53,106 53,525 53,944 54,363 kg/person/year 57 83 77 75 In addition to this tonnage, there is currently
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