1(Xt), 500 Absolute Return, 101 Acceptance/Rejection Method, 317

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

1(Xt), 500 Absolute Return, 101 Acceptance/Rejection Method, 317 Index ∇f(θ, γ), 359 annualized log return, 30 4(xt), 497 annualized simple return, 29 −1 4 (xt), 500 annualized volatility, 107, 491 ANOVA (analysis of variance), absolute return, 101 415–421, 440 acceptance/rejection method, 317 apply (R function), 150 accredited investor, 18 APT (arbitrage pricing theory), 44 ACF (autocorrelation function), 8, AR model, 534–571 100, 515 AR(1), 536–539 AR model, 541–546 ACF, 538 AR(1), 538 PACF, 539 difference equation, 544 AR(2) MA model, 531 ACF, 543 partial (PACF), 516, 547 AR(p), 534–548 sample (SACF), 100, 519 ACF difference equation, 546 adjusted price, 45–48 order determination, 548 dividend, 46, 134 autocorrelation, 538, 543, 547 effect on option strike, 64 causality, 539 return of capital, 48 explosive, 538 stock split, 45 partial autocorrelation function 2 adjusted R , 423, 468 (PACF), 547 after hours, 10, 37 stationarity, 535 agent-based model, 357 arbitrage, 38 aggregate (R function), 510 statistical, 600 AIC (Akaike information criterion), arbitrage pricing theory (APT), 44 445, 468 ARCH (GARCH see), 576 AICc, 469 ARCH effect, 578 Akaike information criterion (AIC), tests for, 579 445, 468 Archimedean copula, 266 algo (programmed trading), 126 ARFIMA model, 554 alpha, 63, 126 arima (R function), 561 alternative hypothesis, 382 ARIMA model, 553–571 alternative trading system (ATS), order determination, 560, 16, 35, 129 563–565 analysis of variance (ANOVA), arima.sim (R function), 555 415–421, 440 ARMA model, 549–571 Anderson-Darling test, 461 causality, 551 623 624 Index invertibility, 552 Bayes information criterion (BIC), order determination, 557, 560, 468 563–565 Bayesian model, 346, 386–393 ARMAX model, 575 conjugate prior, 388 asymptotic distribution, 270, 271, MCMC, 389 308 Bayesian network, 284 asymptotic inference, 378, 393 bear market, 126 ATS (alternative trading system), Bernoulli distribution, 283, 450 16, 35, 129 beta, 61–63, 126 augmented Dickey-Fuller test, beta distribution, 291 595–596, 598 bias, 347 autocorrelation, 7, 511–513, 518 bootstrap estimate, 395 returns, 99–101 bias-variance tradeoff, 218, 220, 370, tests, 526, 580 379, 402, 463, 465 autocorrelation function (ACF), 8, BIC (Bayes information criterion), 100, 511–513, 515 468 AR model, 541–546 bid/ask, 35 AR(1), 538 bid-ask spread, 37 difference equation, 544 big data, 139 MA model, 531 bill, Treasury, 22 partial (PACF), 516, 547 binary regression, 451 sample (SACF), 100, 519 binary regressor, 415, 419 autocovariance function, 515 binary tree, 281 partial, 516 binomial distribution, 283, 450 sample, 519 binomial tree, 281, 283 autoregressive model, 338, 492, Black Monday (October 19, 1987), 534–571 99, 159 autocorrelation, 538, 543, 547 black swan, 132 stationarity, 535 Black Thursday (October 24, 1929), vector autoregressive model, 159 535, 590 Black Tuesday (October 29, 1929), autoregressive operator, 535 159 multivariate, 536 Black-Scholes-Merton differential equation, 280 backshift operator, B(·), 495, 531, BlackRock iShares, 56 535 BOJ (Bank of Japan), 22 −1 inverse, B (·), 496 bond, 13, 20 multivariate, 497, 531, 536 coupon rate, 26 bagplot, 227, 236 coupon stripping, 28 Bank of Japan (BOJ), 22 coupon yield to maturity, 28 Basel Committee, 19, 119 par value, 21 Basel Accords, 119 price, 28 Basel II, 119 yield to maturity, 28 basis point, 22 zero-coupon, 28 bond, Treasury, 22 Index 625 book value, 38 CDF (cumulative distribution bootstrap, 393–396 function), 211, 249 bias estimate, 395 complementary, 258 boot (R package), 396 CDF-skewing, 302 bootstrap (R package), 396 CDO (collateralized debt obligation), confidence interval, 395 20 variance estimate, 394 Center for Research in Security Bowley’s skewness, 96 Prices (CRSP), 53, 171 box-and-whisker plot, 224, 225 centered data, 208–210, 408 Box-Cox transformation, 345, 422, central limit theorem, 272 579 Chambers, John, 140 Box-Ljung test, 526, 580 change of variables technique, 255 Box-Pierce test, 526 characteristic polynomial, 503, 531, boxplot, 110, 224, 225 533, 535, 539, 543, 545, 546 bivariate, 227, 236 AR model, 535, 543 Brownian motion, 279 discriminant, 504 BUGS (software), 389 MA model, 531, 533 Bulletin Board (OTC), 16 chi-squared distribution, 289, 292, burn-in for a stochastic process, 357 313, 383 Burr distributions, 324 chi-squared test, 457 buyback, stock, 33, 38, 43, 44 Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), 17, 108, 113 Cp, 424, 468 Chicago Mercantile Exchange CAC-40 (index), 59, 166 (CME), 17 calendar spread, 74 Cholesky factor, 269, 310, 320 call option, see option class (R object), 143 call spread, 74 classification model, 337, 449 candlestick graphic, 33, 182 logistic regression, 449 CAPE (Shiller P/E ratio), 43 Clayton copula, 266 capital asset pricing model (CAPM), cleaning data, 183–186 44 missing data, 185 capital market line, 72 CME (Chicago Mercantile capitalization, market, 32 Exchange), 17 CAPM (capital asset pricing model), CME Group, 17 44 coefficient of multiple correlation, Case-Shiller Index, 168 417 cash settlement, 64 coefficient of multiple determination, Cauchy distribution, 293 417 causality, 528, 537, 539, 551 coherent measure, 118, 257 CBOE (Chicago Board Options cointegration, 599–602 Exchange), 17, 108, 113 Engle-Granger test, 600 CBOE SKEW Index, 113 Johansen test, 600 CBOE Volatility Index, 108–111, 166 Phillips-Ouliaris test, 600 CCF (cross-correlation function), 517 collateralized debt obligation (CDO), sample, 519 20 626 Index COMEX, 17 correlation, 83, 85, 208, 210, comma separated file (CSV), 162–163 261–263, 584–591 header, 163 among assets in financial crises, Commodity Futures Trading 127, 130, 276 Commission (CFTC), 18 autocorrelation, 100 complementary cumulative distribution, 408–409, 584–591 distribution function Kendall’s tau, 98, 399 (CCDF), 258 Pearson correlation coefficient, composite hypothesis, 381 83 composition of functions, 495 sample, 83, 408 compound distribution, 307 Spearman’s rank correlation, 97, compounding, 26 399 continuous, 28 spurious, 584 computational inference, 378, 393 tail dependence, 127, 130, 276, conditional distribution, 6, 260, 310, 402 513 test, 409 conditional heteroscedasticity, correlogram, 519 575–583 coupon bond, 21 conditional value at risk, 119, 404 coupon rate, 26 confidence interval, 379, 448 coupon stripping, 28 basic bootstrap, 395 Cov(·, ·) (covariance, see), 4 conjugate prior, 388 covariance, 82, 208, 210, 261–263 consistency, 348 covered call, 74 consistent estimator, 348 Cox-Ross-Rubinstein (CRR) model, constrained optimization, 359, 362 282 feasible set, 362 Cram´er-von Mises test, 461 Consumer Price Index (CPI), 168 CRAN (Comprehensive R Archive continuous compounding, 28 Network), 146 continuous data, 206 credit rating agency, 19 continuous distribution, 252, 285 cross-correlation function (CCF), contour plot, 235 513, 517 Cook’s distance, 433, 440, 443 sample, 519 copula, 264–267, 310, 321, 334, 350 cross-correlogram, 519, 522 Archimedean, 266 cross-covariance function, 513 copula (R package), 350 sample, 519 definition, 265 cross-validation, 463–467 fitting, 350 k-fold, 465 Gaussian, 266 leave out one (LOOCV), 464 normal, 266 crossover, 122 Cor(·, ·) (correlation, see), 4 CRSP (Center for Research in Cornish-Fisher expansion, 406 Security Prices), 53, 171 corporate bond, 25 database, 53, 171 seasoned, 26 cryptocurrency, 14, 38 correction, 25 CSV file (comma separated file), 162–163 Index 627 header, 163 Nasdaq daily, 50, 55, 85, 86, 98, cumsum (R function), 154 127 cumulative distribution function Nasdaq daily 1987-2017, 83 (CDF), 211, 249 S&P 500 daily, 50, 53, 55, 61, complementary, 258 83, 85, 89, 90, 92, 98–101, currency exchange rates, 167, 168 108, 127, 569, 579 CVaR, 119, 404 S&P 500 monthly, 93, 102, 105 S&P 500 Total Return daily, 53, D’Agostino-Pearson test, 461 56 DAG (directed acyclic graph), 388 S&P 500 weekly, 93, 105 daily log return, 30 SKEW daily, 108 dark pool, 16, 35, 129 SPY daily, 56 data, 2 T-Bill, 3-month monthly, 22 continuous, 206 USDollar/Euro daily, 14, 601 copyright, 164 VIX daily, 108, 110 derived, 158 yield curves, 24, 25 discrete, 206 date data, 156, 174 observed, 158 in data frames, 161 repository, 163 in xts objects, 174 data cleansing, 183–186 ISO 8601, 157, 176 data quality, 197, 481 POSIX, 157, 176 missing data, 185 DAX (index), 59, 166 data frame, 152–153, 161 death cross, 123 stringsAsFactors, 152, 163 deleted residual, 429, 464 converting to xts object, 174 delta (Greek), 65, 75, 137 data-generating process, 2, 311 density plot, 79, 226 model, 311 bivariate, 227 data reduction, 341 derivative, 13, 63–66 data structure, 160 descriptive statistics, 94, 205 data wrangling and munging, 183 detrending, 505, 508 datasets deviance, 373, 451, 468 CanadaDollar/USDollar daily, deviance residual, 374, 451 601 df (degrees of freedom), 289 Dow Jones daily, 50, 55, 85, 98, DFBETAS, 433, 440, 443 127 DFFITS, 433, 440, 443 Dow Jones daily 1987-2017, 83 Dickey-Fuller test, 595 GLD daily, 85 augmented, 595–596 INTC daily, 9, 34, 39, 51, 70, 76, diff (R function), 154, 174, 176, 499 77, 79, 80, 85, 86, 88, 98, cumsum, 154 124, 127 diffinv, 154 INTC daily 2017, 61 on xts object, 155, 174 INTC monthly, 9 difference equation, 501–505, 545, INTC price adjustments, 47, 48 546 INTC weekly, 9 difference operator, 4(·) or (1 − B), 497 628 Index fractional differencing, 498 lognormal, 286, 288, 313 differential scaling, 302 Lorentz, 286 diffusion process, 279, 280, 490 multinomial, 284, 294, 313 dimension reduction, 341 multivariate normal, 287, 295, directed acyclic graph (DAG), 388 313 discount rate, 22 multivariate t, 295, 313 discounted cash flow,
Recommended publications
  • SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT USING the X12 PROCEDURE Tammy Jackson and Michael Leonard SAS Institute, Inc
    SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT USING THE X12 PROCEDURE Tammy Jackson and Michael Leonard SAS Institute, Inc. Introduction program are regARIMA modeling, model diagnostics, seasonal adjustment using enhanced The U.S. Census Bureau has developed a new X-11 methodology, and post-adjustment seasonal adjustment/decomposition algorithm diagnostics. Statistics Canada's X-11 method fits called X-12-ARIMA that greatly enhances the old an ARIMA model to the original series, then uses X-11 algorithm. The X-12-ARIMA method the model forecast and extends the original series. modifies the X-11 variant of Census Method II by This extended series is then seasonally adjusted by J. Shiskin A.H. Young and J.C. Musgrave of the standard X-11 seasonal adjustment method. February 1967 and the X-11-ARIMA program The extension of the series improves the estimation based on the methodological research developed by of the seasonal factors and reduces revisions to the Estela Bee Dagum, Chief of the Seasonal seasonally adjusted series as new data become Adjustment and Time Series Staff of Statistics available. Canada, September 1979. The X12 procedure is a new addition to SAS/ETS software that Seasonal adjustment of a series is based on the implements the X-12-ARIMA algorithm developed assumption that seasonal fluctuations can be by the U.S. Census Bureau (Census X12). With the measured in the original series (Ot, t = 1,..., n) and help of employees of the Census Bureau, SAS separated from the trend cycle, trading-day, and employees have incorporated the Census X12 irregular fluctuations. The seasonal component of algorithm into the SAS System.
    [Show full text]
  • Discipline: Statistics
    Discipline: Statistics Offered through the Department of Mathematical Sciences, SSB 154, 786-1744/786-4824 STAT A252 Elementary Statistics 3 credits/(3+0) Prerequisites: Math 105 with minimum grade of C. Registration Restrictions: If prerequisite is not satisfied, appropriate SAT, ACT or AP scores or approved UAA Placement Test required. Course Attributes: GER Tier I Quantitative Skills. Fees Special Note: A student may apply no more than 3 credits from STAT 252 or BA 273 toward the graduation requirements for a baccalaureate degree. Course Description: Introduction to statistical reasoning. Emphasis on concepts rather than in- depth coverage of traditional statistical methods. Topics include sampling and experimentation, descriptive statistics, probability, binomial and normal distributions, estimation, single-sample and two-sample hypothesis tests. Additional topics will be selected from descriptive methods in regression and correlation, or contingency table analysis. STAT A253 Applied Statistics for the Sciences 4 credits/(4+0) Prerequisite: Math A107 or Math A109 Registration Restrictions: If prerequisite is not satisfied, appropriate SAT, ACT or AP scores or approved UAA Placement Test required. Course Attributes: GER Tier I Quantitative Skills. Fees. Course Description: Intensive survey course with applications for the sciences. Topics include descriptive statistics, probability, random variables, binomial, Poisson and normal distributions, estimation and hypothesis testing of common parameters, analysis of variance for single factor and two factors, correlation, and simple linear regression. A major statistical software package will be utilized. STAT A307 Probability 3 credits/(3+0) Prerequisites: Math A200 with minimum grade of C or Math A272 with minimum grade of C. Course Attributes: GER Tier I Quantitative Skills.
    [Show full text]
  • Topics in Compositional, Seasonal and Spatial-Temporal Time Series
    TOPICS IN COMPOSITIONAL, SEASONAL AND SPATIAL-TEMPORAL TIME SERIES BY KUN CHANG A dissertation submitted to the Graduate School|New Brunswick Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Graduate Program in Statistics and Biostatistics Written under the direction of Professor Rong Chen and approved by New Brunswick, New Jersey October, 2015 ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION Topics in compositional, seasonal and spatial-temporal time series by Kun Chang Dissertation Director: Professor Rong Chen This dissertation studies several topics in time series modeling. The discussion on sea- sonal time series, compositional time series and spatial-temporal time series brings new insight to the existing methods. Innovative methodologies are developed for model- ing and forecasting purposes. These topics are not isolated but to naturally support each other under rigorous discussions. A variety of real examples are presented from economics, social science and geoscience areas. The second chapter introduces a new class of seasonal time series models, treating the seasonality as a stable composition through time. With the objective of forecasting the sum of the next ` observations, the concept of rolling season is adopted and a structure of rolling conditional distribution is formulated under the compositional time series framework. The probabilistic properties, the estimation and prediction, and the forecasting performance of the model are studied and demonstrated with simulation and real examples. The third chapter focuses on the discussion of compositional time series theories in multivariate models. It provides an idea to the modeling procedure of the multivariate time series that has sum constraints at each time.
    [Show full text]
  • Do Seasonal Adjustments Induce Noncausal Dynamics in Inflation
    econometrics Article Do Seasonal Adjustments Induce Noncausal Dynamics in Inflation Rates? Alain Hecq 1, Sean Telg 1,* and Lenard Lieb 2 1 Department of Quantitative Economics, Maastricht University, School of Business and Economics, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands; [email protected] 2 Department of General Economics (Macro), Maastricht University, School of Business and Economics, P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht, The Netherlands; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +31-43-38-83578 Academic Editors: Gilles Dufrénot, Fredj Jawadi, Alexander Mihailov and Marc S. Paolella Received: 12 June 2017; Accepted: 17 October 2017; Published: 31 October 2017 Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of seasonal adjustment filters on the identification of mixed causal-noncausal autoregressive models. By means of Monte Carlo simulations, we find that standard seasonal filters induce spurious autoregressive dynamics on white noise series, a phenomenon already documented in the literature. Using a symmetric argument, we show that those filters also generate a spurious noncausal component in the seasonally adjusted series, but preserve (although amplify) the existence of causal and noncausal relationships. This result has has important implications for modelling economic time series driven by expectation relationships. We consider inflation data on the G7 countries to illustrate these results. Keywords: inflation; seasonal adjustment filters; mixed causal-noncausal models JEL Classification: C22; E37 1. Introduction Most empirical macroeconomic studies are based on seasonally adjusted data. Various methods have been proposed in the literature aiming at removing unobserved seasonal patterns without affecting other properties of the time series. Just as the misspecification of a trend may cause spurious cycles in detrended data (e.g., Nelson and Kang 1981), a wrongly specified pattern at the seasonal frequency might have very undesirable effects (see, e.g., Ghysels and Perron 1993; Maravall 1993).
    [Show full text]
  • Seasonal Adjustment
    OPEAN CENTRAL BANK Seasonal EUR Adjustment Seasonal Adjustment Titel_16182.pmd 1 12.11.03, 07:33 Seasonal Adjustment Editors: Michele Manna and Romana Peronaci Published by: © European Central Bank, November 2003 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.int Fax +49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d This publication is also available as an e-book to be downloaded from the ECB’s website. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. No responsibility for them should be attributed to the ECB or to any of the other institutions with which the authors are affiliated. All rights reserved by the authors. Editors: Michele Manna and Romana Peronaci Typeset and printed by: Kern & Birner GmbH + Co. As at January 2003. ISBN 92-9181-412-1 (print) ISBN 92-9181-413-X (online) Contents Foreword by Eugenio Domingo Solans ........................................................................ 5 Notes from the Chairman Michele Manna ..................................................................... 7 1 Comparing direct and indirect seasonal adjustments of aggregate series by Catherine C. Hood and David F. Findley .............................................................. 9 2 A class of diagnostics in the ARIMA-model-based decomposition of a time series by Agustín Maravall ............................................................................... 23 3 Seasonal adjustment of European aggregates: direct versus indirect approach by Dominique Ladiray and Gian Luigi Mazzi ........................................................... 37 4 Criteria to determine the optimal revision policy: a case study based on euro zone monetary aggregates data by Laurent Maurin ....................................... 67 5 Direct versus indirect seasonal adjustment of UK monetary statistics: preliminary discussion by David Willoughby ........................................................
    [Show full text]
  • How to Handle Seasonality
    q:u:z '9* I ~ ,I ~ \l I I I National Criminal Justice Reference Service 1- --------------~~------------------------------------------------------ li nCJrs This microfiche was produced from documents received for inclusion in the NCJRS data base. Since NCJRS cannot exercise control over the physical condition of the documents submitted, HOW TO SEASONALITY the individual frame quality will vary. The resolution chart on HAN~JE this frame may be used to evaluate the document quality. Introduction to the Detection an~ Ana~y~is of Seasonal Fluctuation ln Crlmlnal Justice Time Series L. May 1983 2 5 0 11111 . IIIII 1. IIIII~ .' . .. .' '.. ,,\ 16 \\\\\~ IIIII 1.4 11111 . MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS-J963-A Microfilming procedures used to create this fiche comply with the standards set forth in 41CFR 101-11.504. 1 .~ Points of view or opinions stated in this document are those of the author(s) and do not represent the official position or policies of the U. S. Department of Justice. 1 , ~!. ~ , National Institute of Justice j United States Department of Justice I, ,I, Washington, D. C. 20531 , .1 I! d ...:.,. 1 ·1;··'1~~;:~ ~~' ~ ; ~ ., 3/30/84 \ , ,;;:'. 1 ... ,'f '\! 1*,,-: ,j '"-=-~-~'- f qq .... 191f' I III I to( ' .. ~J ( ,] (J ,(] ....,.. t ~\ . 1 HOW TO HANDJE SEASONALITY Introduction to the Detection and Analysis of Seasonal Fluctuation in Criminal Justice Time Series _i. May 1983 by Carolyn Rebecca Blocv. Statistical Analysis Center ILLINOIS CRIMINAL JUSTICE INFORMATION AUTHORITY William Gould, Chairman J. David Coldren, Executive Director U.S. DopsrtrMnt of •• u~lIce NatlonaIlattiut. of Juallce II Thi. documont has .os"n reproouood (!)(actty t.\l received from the /1 _on or organl.tation originating II.
    [Show full text]
  • Residuals, Part II
    Biostatistics 650 Mon, November 5 2001 Residuals, Part II Key terms External Studentization Outliers Added Variable Plot — Partial Regression Plot Partial Residual Plot — Component Plus Residual Plot Key ideas/results ¢ 1. An external estimate of ¡ comes from refitting the model without observation . Amazingly, it has an easy formula: £ ¦!¦ ¦ £¥¤§¦©¨ "# 2. Externally Studentized Residuals $ ¦ ¦©¨ ¦!¦)( £¥¤§¦&% ' Ordinary residuals standardized with £*¤§¦ . Also known as R-Student. 3. Residual Taxonomy Names Definition Distribution ¦!¦ ¦+¨-,¥¦ ,0¦ 1 Ordinary ¡ 5 /. &243 ¦768¤§¦©¨ ¦ ¦!¦ 1 ¦!¦ PRESS ¡ &243 9' 5 $ Studentized ¦©¨ ¦ £ ¦!¦ ¤0> % = Internally Studentized : ;<; $ $ Externally Studentized ¦+¨ ¦ £?¤§¦ ¦!¦ ¤0>¤A@ % R-Student = 4. Outliers are unusually large observations, due to an unmodeled shift or an (unmodeled) increase in variance. 5. Outliers are not necessarily bad points; they simply are not consistent with your model. They may posses valuable information about the inadequacies of your model. 1 PRESS Residuals & Studentized Residuals Recall that the PRESS residual has a easy computation form ¦ ¦©¨ PRESS ¦!¦ ( ¦!¦ It’s easy to show that this has variance ¡ , and hence a standardized PRESS residual is 9 ¦ ¦ ¦!¦ ¦ PRESS ¨ ¨ ¨ ¦ : £ ¦!¦ £ ¦!¦ £ ¦ ¦ % % % ' When we standardize a PRESS residual we get the studentized residual! This is very informa- ,¥¦ ¦ tive. We understand the PRESS residual to be the residual at ¦ if we had omitted from the 3 model. However, after adjusting for it’s variance, we get the same thing as a studentized residual. Hence the standardized residual can be interpreted as a standardized PRESS residual. Internal vs External Studentization ,*¦ ¦ The PRESS residuals remove the impact of point ¦ on the fit at . But the studentized 3 ¢ ¦ ¨ ¦ £?% ¦!¦ £ residual : can be corrupted by point by way of ; a large outlier will inflate the residual mean square, and hence £ .
    [Show full text]
  • Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models with an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy
    Munich Personal RePEc Archive Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models with an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy Sant’Anna, Pedro H. C. Universidad Carlos III de Madrid May 2013 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/48429/ MPRA Paper No. 48429, posted 19 Jul 2013 13:15 UTC Testing for Uncorrelated Residuals in Dynamic Count Models with an Application to Corporate Bankruptcy Pedro H. C. Sant’Anna Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Getafe, 28903, Spain [email protected] Abstract This article proposes a new diagnostic test for dynamic count models, which is well suited for risk management. Our test proposal is of the Portmanteau-type test for lack of residual autocorrelation. Unlike previous proposals, the resulting test statistic is asymptotically pivotal when innovations are uncorrelated, but not necessarily iid nor a martingale difference. Moreover, the proposed test is able to detect local alter- natives converging to the null at the parametric rate T −1/2, with T the sample size. The finite sample performance of the test statistic is examined by means of a Monte Carlo experiment. Finally, using a dataset on U.S. corporate bankruptcies, we apply our test proposal to check if common risk models are correctly specified. Keywords: Time Series of counts; Residual autocorrelation function; Model checking; Credit risk management. 1 1. Introduction Credit risk affects virtually every financial contract. Therefore the measurement, pricing and management of credit risk have received much attention from economists, bank supervisors and regulators, and financial market practitioners. A widely used measure of credit risk is the probability of corporate default (PD).
    [Show full text]
  • A Diagnostic for Seasonality Based Upon Autoregressive Roots
    A Diagnostic for Seasonality Based Upon Autoregressive Roots Tucker McElroy U.S. Census Bureau NTTS, March 13, 2019 Disclaimer These slides are released to inform interested parties of research and to encourage discussion. The views expressed on statistical issues are those of the author and not necessarily those of the U.S. Census Bureau. Outline 1. Background on Seasonality 2. Criteria for a Diagnostic of Seasonality 3. Persistent Oscillations 4. Seasonality Hypothesis Testing 5. Simulation Evidence 6. Data Application Background on Seasonality Seasonality in Official Time Series. Many official time series { such as gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment rate data { have an enormous impact on public policy, and the seasonal patterns often obscure the long-run and mid-range dynamics. What is Seasonality? Persistency in a time series over seasonal periods that is not explainable by intervening time periods. • Requires persistence year to year • Non-seasonal trending series have persistence, which comes through intervening seasons { we must screen out such cases Background on Seasonality The Seasonal Adjustment Task. Given a raw time series: 1. Does it have seasonality? If so, seasonally adjust. 2. Does the seasonal adjustment have seasonality? If not, publish. Both these tasks require a seasonality diagnostic, although the properties of a time series before and after seasonal adjustment can be quite different. Background on Seasonality Pre-Testing. Testing for seasonality in a raw series, where the seasonality could be deterministic (stable), moving and stationary (dynamic), or moving and non-stationary (unit root). These categories are not mutually exclusive, e.g., we could have both unit root and deterministic seasonality.
    [Show full text]
  • Research Paper Commerce Statistics Inference in Nonlinear Regression Model with Heteroscedastic Errors B. Mahaboob Research Scho
    Volume-5, Issue-5, May - 2016 • ISSN No 2277 - 8160 IF : 3.62 | IC Value 70.36 Commerce Research Paper Statistics Inference in Nonlinear Regression Model With Heteroscedastic Errors B. Mahaboob Research Scholar, Department of Mathematics Dr. M. Ramesh Senior Data Scientist, Tech Mahindra, Hyderabad. Dr. Sk. Khadar Assistant Professor (Senior), Department of Mathematics, VIT, Vellore, Babu Tamilnadu. Academic Consultant, Department of CSE, SPMVV Engineering P. Srivyshnavi College, Tirupati. Prof. P. B.Sireesha Research Scholar, Department of Statistics, S.V.University, Tirupati. Balasiddamuni Rtd. Professor ABSTRACT An advent of modern computer science has made it possible for the applied mathematician to study the inferential aspects of an increasing number of nonlinear regression models in recent years. The inferential aspects for nonlinear regression models and the error assumptions are usually analogous to those made for linear regression models. The tests for the hypotheses on parameters of nonlinear regression models are usually based on nonlinear least squares estimates and the normal assumptions of error variables. A more common problem with data that are best fit by a nonlinear regression model than with data that can be adequately fit by the linear regression model is the problem of heteroscedasticity of errors. The problem of heteroscedasticity can be studied with reference to nonlinear regression models in a variety of ways. In the present study, an attempt has been made by developing inferential method for heteroscedastic nonlinear regression model. KEYWORDS : Intrinsically Nonlinear model; Violation of assumptions on Errors; Problem of Heteroscedasticity. I. INTRODUCTION In estimating the linear regression models, the least squares method of estimation is often applied to estimate the unknown parameters of the linear regression model and errors are usually assumed to be independent and identically distributed normal random variables with zero mean and unknown constant variance.
    [Show full text]
  • SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT in ECONOMIC TIME SERIES: the EXPERIENCE of the BANCO DE ESPAÑA (With the Model•Based Method)
    SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT IN ECONOMIC TIME SERIES: THE EXPERIENCE OF THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA (with the model•based method) Alberto Cabrero Banco de España Banco de España — Servicio de Estudios Documento de Trabajo n.º 0002 SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT IN ECONOMIC TIME SERIES: THE EXPERIENCE OF THE BANCO DE ESPAÑA (with the model-based method) Alberto Cabrero(*) (*) A first version of this paper was presented at a meeting of the Task Force on Seasonal Adjustment in Frankfurt (November, 1999). I am grateful for helpful comments to the members of the TFSEA. Also, I am especially grateful to A. Maravall for his suggestions and comments. Of course, any remaining errors are the author´s own. BANCO DE ESPAÑA-DOCUMENTO DE TRABAJO Nº 0002 Abstract. For over 20 years the Banco de España has been using seasonally adjusted series for economic analysis and, more specifically, for monitoring the main monetary and financial magnitudes. This paper presents the Banco de España's experience in this field, describing the various methodological aspects that lead a central bank to use seasonally adjusted series in monetary monitoring and analysis. The paper further describes and substantiates the use of a procedure such as ARIMA model-based signal extraction for seasonally adjusting economic series. Lastly, a specific instance of seasonal adjustment using this methodology is offered: the analysis of the seasonality of the Spanish component of the euro area M3 aggregate. This case study illustrates in detail how the Banco de España has been regularly conducting its monetary and credit aggregate seasonal adjustment exercises up to 1999. Key words: monetary aggregates, seasonal adjustment, model-based signal extraction, TRAMO/SEATS procedure.
    [Show full text]
  • Gretl User's Guide
    Gretl User’s Guide Gnu Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Allin Cottrell Department of Economics Wake Forest university Riccardo “Jack” Lucchetti Dipartimento di Economia Università Politecnica delle Marche December, 2008 Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.1 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation (see http://www.gnu.org/licenses/fdl.html). Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Features at a glance ......................................... 1 1.2 Acknowledgements ......................................... 1 1.3 Installing the programs ....................................... 2 I Running the program 4 2 Getting started 5 2.1 Let’s run a regression ........................................ 5 2.2 Estimation output .......................................... 7 2.3 The main window menus ...................................... 8 2.4 Keyboard shortcuts ......................................... 11 2.5 The gretl toolbar ........................................... 11 3 Modes of working 13 3.1 Command scripts ........................................... 13 3.2 Saving script objects ......................................... 15 3.3 The gretl console ........................................... 15 3.4 The Session concept ......................................... 16 4 Data files 19 4.1 Native format ............................................. 19 4.2 Other data file formats ....................................... 19 4.3 Binary databases ..........................................
    [Show full text]