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Exchange Rate Policies
Exchange Rate Policies Charles Engel Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research Senior Fellow, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas July 28, 2009 Email: [email protected]. Address: Department of Economics, 1180 Observatory Drive, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706-1393, USA. This note was prepared as background for the wrap-up conferences of the BIS Asian research programme, The International Financial Crisis and Policy Challenges in Asia and the Pacific, in Shanghai, 6-8 August 2009. I acknowledge support for my research from the Duisenberg Fellowship at the European Central Bank, and from the National Science Foundation under grant #MSN121092. A debate has continued over many years on the desirable degree of foreign exchange rate flexibility. One side of the debate has sometimes made the case that the exchange rate should be freely determined by market forces, independently of any foreign exchange intervention or targeting by central bank monetary policy. This argument takes the stance that the market can best determine the appropriate level of the exchange rate. From the standpoint of modern macroeconomics, particularly from the view of New Keynesian economics, that stance is potentially self-contradictory. Markets are able to achieve efficient, welfare-maximizing outcomes when they operate without distortions – that is, when markets are competitive and prices adjust instantly to reflect underlying costs. But in such a world, the nominal exchange rate regime is of no consequence in determining the real allocation of resources. The real exchange rate (the consumer price level in one country compared to the level in another country, expressed in a common currency) and the terms of trade (the price of a country’s imports relative to its exports) could adjust freely to efficient levels under a floating nominal exchange rate regime, a managed float or even a fixed exchange rate regime if goods markets were perfectly efficient. -
The Econometric Society European Region Aide Mémoire
The Econometric Society European Region Aide M´emoire March 22, 2021 1 European Standing Committee 2 1.1 Responsibilities . .2 1.2 Membership . .2 1.3 Procedures . .4 2 Econometric Society European Meeting (ESEM) 5 2.1 Timing and Format . .5 2.2 Invited Sessions . .6 2.3 Contributed Sessions . .7 2.4 Other Events . .8 3 European Winter Meeting (EWMES) 9 3.1 Scope of the Meeting . .9 3.2 Timing and Format . 10 3.3 Selection Process . 10 4 Appendices 11 4.1 Appendix A: Members of the Standing Committee . 11 4.2 Appendix B: Winter Meetings (since 2014) and Regional Consultants (2009-2013) . 27 4.3 Appendix C: ESEM Locations . 37 4.4 Appendix D: Programme Chairs ESEM & EEA . 38 4.5 Appendix E: Invited Speakers ESEM . 39 4.6 Appendix F: Winners of the ESEM Awards . 43 4.7 Appendix G: Countries in the Region Europe and Other Areas ........... 44 This Aide M´emoire contains a detailed description of the organisation and procedures of the Econometric Society within the European Region. It complements the Rules and Procedures of the Econometric Society. It is maintained and regularly updated by the Secretary of the European Standing Committee in accordance with the policies and decisions of the Committee. The Econometric Society { European Region { Aide Memoire´ 1 European Standing Committee 1.1 Responsibilities 1. The European Standing Committee is responsible for the organisation of the activities of the Econometric Society within the Region Europe and Other Areas.1 It should undertake the consideration of any activities in the Region that promote interaction among those interested in the objectives of the Society, as they are stated in its Constitution. -
Income Inequality and the Labour Market in Britain and the US
Journal of Public Economics 162 (2018) 48–62 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Public Economics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jpube Income inequality and the labour market in Britain and the US Richard Blundell a,⁎, Robert Joyce b, Agnes Norris Keiller a, James P. Ziliak c a University College London, Institute for Fiscal Studies, United Kingdom b Institute for Fiscal Studies, United Kingdom c University of Kentucky, Institute for Fiscal Studies, United States article info abstract Article history: We study household income inequality in both Great Britain and the United States and the interplay between la- Received 31 October 2017 bour market earnings and the tax system. While both Britain and the US have witnessed secular increases in 90/ Received in revised form 15 March 2018 10 male earnings inequality over the last three decades, this measure of inequality in net family income has de- Accepted 2 April 2018 clined in Britain while it has risen in the US. To better understand these comparisons, we examine the interaction Available online 23 April 2018 between labour market earnings in the family, assortative mating, the tax and welfare-benefit system and house- hold income inequality. We find that both countries have witnessed sizeable changes in employment which have Keywords: Inequality primarily occurred on the extensive margin in the US and on the intensive margin in Britain. Increases in the gen- Family income erosity of the welfare system in Britain played a key role in equalizing net income growth across the wage distri- Earnings bution, whereas the relatively weak safety net available to non-workers in the US mean this growing group has seen particularly adverse developments in their net incomes. -
Boa Cover Pages
5TH EUROSTAT COLLOQUIUM ON MODERN TOOLS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS Jointly organised by EUROSTAT and European University Institute (Florence, Italy) Luxembourg, 29th September – 1st October 2008 Monetary Policies and Low-Frequency Manifestations of the Quantity Theory Thomas Sargent Paolo Surico Monetary Policies and Low-Frequency Manifestations of the Quantity Theory∗ Thomas J. Sargent† Paolo Surico‡ September 2008 Abstract To detect the quantity theory of money, we follow Lucas (1980) by looking at scatter plots of filtered time series of inflation and money growth rates and interest rates and money growth rates. Like Whiteman (1984), we relate those scatter plots to sums of two-sided distributed lag coefficients constructed from fixed-coefficient and time-varying VARs for U.S. data from 1900-2005. We interpret outcomes in terms of population values of those sums of coefficients implied by two DSGE models. The DSGE models make the sums of weights depend on the monetary policy rule via cross-equation restrictions of a type that Lucas (1972) and Sargent (1971) emphasized in the context of testing the natural unemployment rate hypothesis. When the U.S. data are extended beyond Lucas’s 1955-1975 period, the patterns revealed by scatter plots mutate in ways that we want to attribute to prevailing monetary policy rules. JEL classification: E4, E5, N1 Key words: quantity theory, policy regimes, time-varying VAR ∗We wish to thank Tim Besley, Efrem Castelnuovo, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Haroon Mumtaz, and Francesco Zanetti for useful discussions. Sargent thanks the Bank of England for providing research support when he was a Houblon-Norman Fellow. -
Tax Policy Reform: the Role of Empirical Evidence
TAX POLICY REFORM: THE ROLE OF EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE Richard Blundell University College London and Institute for Fiscal Studies Abstract To understand the role of evidence in tax policy design, this paper organizes the empirical analysis of reform under five loosely related headings: (i) key margins of adjustment, (ii) measurement of effective tax rates, (iii) the importance of information and complexity, (iv) evidence on the size of responses, and (v) implications from theory for tax design. The context for the discussion is the recently published Mirrlees Review of tax reform. Although the Review focused on all aspects of tax reform, this paper highlights the taxation of earnings. It also comments on earnings taxation in the context of VAT base-broadening reforms and the taxation of capital (JEL: H2, H3). 1. Introduction How should evidence be used in the study of tax design? What is the appropriate balance between theory and empirics? These questions lay at the heart of the Mirrlees Review. Motivated by the aim to develop a broad set of principles for what makes a good tax system, the Review was an attempt to base tax reform on the large body of economic theory and empirical evidence. It was inspired by the Meade Report (1978) with the idea to review tax design from first principles for modern open economies in general and for the UK in particular. The UK over the past thirty years would be the working laboratory. The Mirrlees Review was published in two volumes: Dimensions of Tax Design (Mirrlees et al. 2010) bringing together expert evidence across a wide range of aspects of tax reform, and Tax by Design (Mirrlees et al. -
New Institutional Economics: a State-Of-The-Art Review for Economic Sociologists by Rinat Menyashev, Timur Natkhov, Leonid Polishchuk, and Georgiy Syunyaev 12
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies (Cologne) (Ed.) Periodical Part economic sociology_the european electronic newsletter, Volume 13, Number 1-3 economic sociology_the european electronic newsletter Provided in Cooperation with: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies (MPIfG), Cologne Suggested Citation: Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies (Cologne) (Ed.) (2011) : economic sociology_the european electronic newsletter, Volume 13, Number 1-3, economic sociology_the european electronic newsletter, ISSN 1871-3351, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies (MPIfG), Cologne, Vol. 13, Iss. 1-3 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/155978 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. -
The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium
IHS Economics Series Working Paper 265 April 2011 The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium Charles Engel Impressum Author(s): Charles Engel Title: The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium ISSN: Unspecified 2011 Institut für Höhere Studien - Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) Josefstädter Straße 39, A-1080 Wien E-Mail: offi [email protected] Web: ww w .ihs.ac. a t All IHS Working Papers are available online: http://irihs. ihs. ac.at/view/ihs_series/ This paper is available for download without charge at: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/2050/ 265 Reihe Ökonomie Economics Series The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium Charles Engel 265 Reihe Ökonomie Economics Series The Real Exchange Rate, Real Interest Rates, and the Risk Premium Charles Engel April 2011 Institut für Höhere Studien (IHS), Wien Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna Contact: Charles Engel Department of Economics University of Wisconsin 1180 Observatory Drive Madison, WI 53706-1393 email: [email protected] Founded in 1963 by two prominent Austrians living in exile – the sociologist Paul F. Lazarsfeld and the economist Oskar Morgenstern – with the financial support from the Ford Foundation, the Austrian Federal Ministry of Education and the City of Vienna, the Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) is the first institution for postgraduate education and research in economics and the social sciences in Austria. The Economics Series presents research done at the Department of Economics and Finance and aims to share “work in progress” in a timely way before formal publication. -
Michael BEST CV
MICHAEL CARLOS BEST Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) | [email protected]| personal.lse.ac.uk/bestm John A. & Cynthia Fry Gunn Building, 366 Galvez Street, Stanford, CA 94305, USA | +1 (415) 316 5006 October 2014 EMPLOYMENT 2014-2017 Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University Postdoctoral Fellow EDUCATION 2009-2014 London School of Economics PhD Economics 2011-2012 UC Berkeley Economics, Center for Equitable Growth Visiting PhD Student 2008-2009 London School of Economics MRes Economics (distinction) 2006-2008 University of Oxford MPhil Economics (distinction) 2003-2006 London School of Economics BSc Government & Economics PUBLICATIONS Production vs Revenue Efficiency With Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence From Pakistan (with Anne Brockmeyer, Henrik Kleven, Johannes Spinnewijn and Mazhar Waseem) September 2014. Forth- coming, Journal of Political Economy WORKING PAPERS Salary Misreporting and the Role of Firms in Workers’ Responses to Taxes: Evidence from Pakistan May 2014 Housing Market Responses to Transaction Taxes: Evidence from Notches and Stimulus in the UK (with Henrik Kleven) May 2014 Optimal Income Taxation with Career Effects of Work Effort (with Henrik Kleven) February 2013. Revise & Resubmit at the American Economic Review WORK IN PROGRESS Motivating Bureaucrats: Autonomy vs Performance Pay for Public Procurement in Pakistan (with Ori- ana Bandiera, Adnan Khan and Andrea Prat) The Challenge of Taxing Small Businesses in Mexico (with Miguel Almunia) Haste Makes Waste: -
The New Political Economy
The New Political Economy Timothy Besley London School of Economics November 8, 2004 1 Introduction It is a great honour to give this year’sKeynes lecture. I have chosen as my subject the New Political Economy, a body of research and thinking that has ‡ourished in the past …fteen years or so at the interface between economics and politics. At the margin the New Political Economy reverses the split that occurred between the disciplines of economics and political science at the end of the nineteenth century. The aim of the New Political Economy is to understand important issues that arise in the policy sphere.1 It is not, as is occasionally hinted, an e¤ort by economists to colonize political science. Rather, the main concern is to extend the competence of economists to analyze issues that require some facility with economic and political decision making. This lecture is not in any sense a survey of the …eld. It is a highly selective and personal view of the motivation behind the …eld and some of the key themes that link the literature. Thus, it represents a manifesto presented in the hope that somebody who encounters these ideas for the …rst time here might be tempted to delve further into the literature and even contribute to it. This paper is based on the Keynes lecture delivered at the British Academy on October 13th 2004. I am indebted to Pete Boetkke, Mary Morgan and Torsten Persson for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this lecture and Steve Coate for numerous illuminating discussions. -
Human Development Research Paper 2011/06 Economic Crises And
Human Development Research Paper 2011/06 Economic crises and Inequality A B Atkinson and Salvatore Morelli United Nations Development Programme Human Development Reports Research Paper November 2011 Human Development Research Paper 2011/05 Sustainability in the presence of global warming: theory and empirics Humberto Llavador, John E. Roemer, and Joaquim Silvestre United Nations Development Programme Human Development Reports Research Paper 2011/06 November 2011 Economic crises and Inequality A B Atkinson and Salvatore Morelli A B Atkinson is a Fellow of Nuffield College and Centennial Professor at the London School of Economics. E-mail: [email protected]. Salvatore Morelli is a D Phil student in the Department of Economics, University of Oxford. E-mail: [email protected]. Comments should be addressed by email to the author(s). Abstract Sustainability for a society means long-term viability, but also the ability to cope with economic crises and disasters. Just as with natural disasters, we can minimize the chance of them occurring and set in place policies to protect the world’s citizens against their consequences. This paper is concerned with the impact of economic crises on the inequality of resources and with the impact of inequality on the probability of economic crises. Is it the poor who bear the brunt? Or are crises followed by a reversal of previous boom in top incomes? Reversing the question, was the 2007 financial crisis the result of prior increases in inequality? Have previous periods of high inequality led to crises? What can we learn from previous crises – such as those in Nordic countries and the Asian financial crisis? How far can public policy moderate the impact of economic crises? Keywords: Economic crises, Poverty, Inequality. -
Income Inequality and the Labour Market in Britain and the US
UKCPR Discussion Paper Series University of Kentucky Center for DP 2017-07 Poverty Research ISSN: 1936-9379 Income inequality and the labour market in Britain and the US Richard Blundell University College London Institute for Fiscal Studies Robert Joyce Institute for Fiscal Studies Agnes Norris Keiller Institute for Fiscal Studies University College London James P. Ziliak University of Kentucky October 2017 Preferred citation Blundell, R., et al. (2017, Oct.). Income inequality and the labour market in Britain and the US. University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research Discussion Paper Series, DP2017-07. Re- trieved [Date] from http://www.cpr.uky.edu/research. Author correspondence Richard Blundell, [email protected] University of Kentucky Center for Poverty Research, 550 South Limestone, 234 Gatton Building, Lexington, KY, 40506-0034 Phone: 859-257-7641. E-mail: [email protected] www.ukcpr.org EO/AA Income Inequality and the Labour Market in Britain and the US1 Richard Blundell2, Robert Joyce3, Agnes Norris Keiller4, and James P. Ziliak5 October 2017 Abstract We study household income inequality in both Great Britain and the United States and the interplay between labour market earnings and the tax system. While both Britain and the US have witnessed secular increases in 90/10 male earnings inequality over the last three decades, this measure of inequality in net family income has declined in Britain while it has risen in the US. We study the interplay between labour market earnings in the family, assortative mating, the tax and benefit system and household income inequality. We find that both countries have witnessed sizeable changes in employment which have primarily occurred on the extensive margin in the US and on the intensive margin in Britain. -
International Macroeconomics Prospectus[1]
International Macroeconomics Prospectus Professor: Ethan Kaplan Spring, 2006 This course will focus on the main area of research in international macroeconomics and international finance: the determination of the exchange rate and the determination of the current account. The exchange rate will be studied in both regular modes and crisis modes under fixed, floating and currency band models. The current account will be studied in both regular as well as crisis modes, incorporating both determinants of levels as well as sustainability issues. The course will begin with a 2-period and then an infinite horizon real-side model of current account determination. Current account determination will then be revisited in the presence of uncertainty. Uncertainty leaves open the possibility of default (Obstfeld-Rogoff, Chapters 1, 2, and 5). The course will then continue with models of sovereign default (Bulow-Rogoff, 1989). Recent theoretical as well as empirical work will be considered. The course will then turn towards the nominal side of the economy, looking at exchange rate determination. The first topic on exchange rate determination will be PPP models. We will discuss empirical work on whether or not there is convergence to PPP in the long and short run. Then, we will look at Dornbusch’s sticky-price model of exchange rate determination (Dornbusch, 1976). Krugman´s currency band model (Krugman, 1991) will also be considered. The course will then consider more recent new open economy macroeconomic models of exchange rate determination, starting with Obsteld-Rogoff (1994). Included in the new open economy macro discussion will be recent work on the impact of net asset holdings in exchange rate and current account determination.