Drought Production Date: 31/08/2011 Version 2.0 !!+ UNOSAT Activation: DR20110714HOA

SOMALIAF

KENYA

Summary: A total of 226 spatially distinct IDP shelter 41,000. Significant building damages were identified satellite imagery recorded the mornings of 21-22 August, concentrations were identified (as of 22 August 2011) within the Bacaad Market area () 28 July, 15 April and 30 March 2011. This is a within the urban extent of Mogadishu, representing an following the offensive by AMISOM against al Shabaab preliminary assessment and has not yet been validated increase of 45 IDP sites since 28 July 2011. A projection positions on 28-29 July 2011. This report is based on a in the field. Please send feedback to UNITAR/UNOSAT of the total number of IDP shelter structures located in time-series analysis of Somali IDP shelter at the contact information below. Mogadishu indicated a minimum estimate of over concentrations within the capital city of Mogadishu using

Major camp growth of over 2,750 Continued north-eastern movement of new IDP shelters in IDP site (ID:115), Hodan camp sites into areas formerly-held by al Shabaab (here 250 shelters in two sites in )

Digfer Hospital HODAN

Taleh Village

Over 18,400 IDP shelters Identified for 52 selected ID: 295 ID: 296 ID: 297 African ID: ID: IDP sites in Mogadishu ID: 213 Village 87 ID: 212 215 ID: 91 Digfer ID: 299 ID: 83 Hospital ID: 89 National ID: 115 University ID: 161 ID: 214 (frm) ID: 92

ID: 84 ID: Frm. US 250 Embassy Taleh Compound ID: 93 Village ID: ID: 249 ID: 308 298 ID: 206 HODAN ID: 160 ID: Coca ID: ID: ID: 151 150 ID: 82 WADAJIR Cola ID: ID: 81 94 158 ID: 149 Plant (MEDINA) 152 ID: 96 ID: 147 ID: 321 ID: 289 Benadir ID: 80 ID: 95 Secondary School Benadir ID: 210 Hospital ID: 148 ID: 103 ID: 109 ID: ID: 232 ID: 145 144 Bulo Median Hubey Bermuda ID: 107 ID: 146 Hospital ID: 142 District

" " " " " " Individual IDP IDP Camp Status: " " " " " " " " Open - Open - Size / Open - Open - No Closed - (Absorbed/ " " " " " " " " " " " " (28 July 2011 to " " " " shelter structures New Site Pop Expanded Contracted Significant Change Relocated/Aggregated) " " 22 Aug 2011): (selected sites)

Map Scale for A4: 1:14,000 Lower map The depiction and use of boundaries, geographic names and related data the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR), providing I! Inset only shown here are not warranted to be error-free nor do they imply official satellite imagery and related geographic information, research and analysis to endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. UNOSAT is a program of UN humanitarian & development agencies & their implementing partners. Meters 10050 0 100 200 300 400 500 Satellite Data: QB02 / WV02 Imaging Analysis: UNITAR / UNOSAT UNITAR / UNOSAT Dates: 30/03/11,15/4/11, 28/07/11, 21- IDP Camp Data: UNITAR / UNOSAT Coordinate System: UTM Zone 38N- [email protected] 22/08/11 Landcover: UNITAR / UNOSAT WGS84 Palais des Nations, Resolution: 0.6 m/0.5 m Road Data: Google Map Maker Analysis conducted with ArcGIS v10 Geneva, Switzerland Copyright: DigitalGlobe 2011 Admin Boundaries: OCHA T: +41 22 767 4020 (Operations) Source: FirstLook & European Space Other Data: USGS, NGA, SWALIM 24/7 hotline: +41 76 487 4998 www.unitar.org/unosat This work by UNITAR/UNOSAT is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.

31 August 2011 - Version 2.0 UNOSAT Activation: DR20110714HOA Updated Emergency Assessment of Somali IDP Shelter Concentrations in Mogadishu, (as of 22 August 2011)

BACKGROUND: This assessment of IDP shelter concentrations within the urban extent of Mogadishu was done in support of UN emergency humanitarian planning in the city following the dramatic influx of Somalis displaced by famine and armed conflict. Satellite imagery acquired on 21-22 August, 28 July, 15 April and 30 March 2011 was used for this shelter assessment. This assessment provides a detailed count of spatially-distinct concentrations of IDP shelters within the city, an estimate of the total number of IDP shelter structures in the city by camp site as well as by district, and assesses the date periods the camp sites were likely formed. Identified IDP sites were further assessed for construction/shelter type, specifically looking for the presence of emergency tent shelters, a common barometer of active support from international aid organizations and NGOs.

This is a preliminary assessment and has not yet been validated in the field. Please send feedback to UNITAR/UNOSAT at the contact information below. Geographic datasets produced for this assessment and additional UNOSAT Horn of Africa products are available at http://www.unitar.org/unosat/horn-africa-data. This report is part of an on-going satellite monitoring program of UNITAR/UNOSAT of the Horn of Africa crisis in support of international humanitarian assistance and created to respond to the needs of UN agencies and their partners.

ANALYSIS RESULTS: 1. DRAMATIC CHANGES IN IDP LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CITY There has been dramatic internal movement of IDP populations in Mogadishu during the last month, as indicated by the pronounced expansion of several major existing camps, as well as by the formation of new IDP shelter sites primarily within the districts of Hodan, Hamar Jab-Jab, Hawl-Wadag and Wardhigley (see table 2). Further, there has been an apparent increase in the absolute number of IDP shelters as suggested by the 16% expansion in the total area of IDP shelter sites across the city, from 178ha on 28 July to 206ha on 22 August 2011.

Table 1 below contains a detailed breakdown of the updated IDP shelter analysis by district, and contains both actual shelter counts and projected shelter estimate numbers (see Section 2 for detailed description). The overview map on the following page presents the location and distribution of the 230 IDP shelter sites identified across the city. Table 1 – Breakdown of the number of IDP sites and estimated shelter structures by District

# of distinct Mean area of Total area of a. Selected IDP b. Projected IDP Total Shelter estimate Mogadishu IDP shelter IDP shelter IDP Shelter Site Shelter Site Shelter (a. Actual counts + b. Districts: sites sites (m2) sites (m2) Count Estimate Projected) Outside of City* 4 130,510 522,050 7,760 7,760 Wadajir (Medina) 45 11,370 500,750 5,210 2,930 8,140 Hodan 43 10,610 456,250 7,530 1,460 8,990 Dharkeynley 28 15,650 438,250 5,000 1,430 6,430 Karan 3 77,720 233,170 1,580 1,580 Waberi 15 7,820 117,240 1,960 1,960 Hawl-Wadag 18 4,370 78,720 160 1,450 1,610 Huriwa 8 6,720 53,770 320 760 1,080 Wardhigley 12 4,010 48,120 890 890 Deyninle 1 31,520 31,520 460 460 Hamar Jab-Jab 18 1,280 22,980 200 430 630 Yaqshid 4 5,290 21,150 350 350 Bondhere 11 1,860 20,410 450 450 Hamar-Weye 12 1,620 19,490 50 380 430 Shibis 2 5,370 10,730 220 220 Shingani 6 1,120 6,740 160 160 TOTALS 230 2,581,340 18,470 22,670 41,140 * Four large IDP camps located approximately 6km north-east of Huriwa district, along road to Balad town, near settlement of Ceel-cirfeed Drought Production Date: 31/08/2011 Version 2.0 !!+ UNOSAT Activation: DR20110714HOA

To BaladF F To Afgoye AOI 8: Four large IDP camps AOI 1: IDP camp (ID115) AOI 6:Significant building damages identified approx. 6km NE of Huriwa, expanded by over 2,750 Deyninle and destruction within Bacaad Market near Ceel-cirfeed village, with estimated shelters & 100,000m2 in area identified. Large informal IDP settlement over 7,000 IDP shelter structures, absorbing 3 smaller existing newly-formed along main road north of established before October 2010 the Presidential Palace camps, plus formation of 7 new Fr,. Ministry IDP camps in immediate vicinity of Defense Shirkole Gubta Village Al Bakara Animal Village Market Wardhigley Industrial Hodan Road North Stadium Emiska Ramadan Jungale Hotel Area Digfer Hawl-Wadag Ali Hospital Tawfiq Dharkeynley Kamin Frm. US AOI 1 Bakara Embassy Market Yaqshid Compound Huriwa AOI 6 AOI 7 Median Jamhuriah Hospital Black Sea Hamar Bile Bacaad Market Fagah Benadir Taleh Hospital Village AOI 5 AOI 3 Presidential Palace AOI 7: 300 Somali IDP shelters Wadajir Villa Bondhere erected in three new (Medina) Baidoa camp sites in Shibis Bermuda District

AOI 2 Sacha Sq.

Solene Boulevard Karan !I AOI 4 Waberi Fish Abdi-Aziz New Sea Market AOI 2: Large IDP camp site erected Port immediately adjacent to Int. Airport AOI 3: 7 newly-erected Shingani small IDP camp sites AOI 4: 9 newly-erected small IDP camp sites erected Hamar erected in Taleh AOI 5: majority of newly- Village area along southern Bermuda area 20 of 24 roadblocks removed near port in Hamar Jab-Jab Jab-Jab erected IDP shelters in Abdi Aziz, Shibis and concentrated in two Shingani districts large camp sites near the Hamar-Weye Presidential Palace (IDP shelter concentrations highlighted by the site status color)

I! Data Frame rotated 29 degrees from North Open - New Market Area which likely Roadblock / Checkpoint - ACTIVE Map Scale for A4: 1:64,000 contains small informal IDP shelters Open - Expanded Market Area unlikely to Roadblock / Checkpoint - REMOVED Meters have IDP shelters in vicinity 500250 0 500 1,000 1,500 Open - Contracted Road flooding site (standing water) Large Urban The depiction and use of boundaries, geographic names Research (UNITAR), providing satellite imagery and UNITAR / UNOSAT Mogadishu Int. Airport Open - No Change Building / Complex !I and related data shown here are not warranted to be related geographic information, research and analysis to [email protected] Primary Road error-free nor do they imply official endorsement or UN humanitarian & development agencies & their Palais des Nations, Closed - (Absorbed/ IDP Camp Status: Camp IDP 2011) Aug July-22 (28 AOI within report Local / Urban Road acceptance by the United Nations. UNOSAT is a implementing partners. Geneva, Switzerland Relocated/Aggregated) program of the United Nations Institute for Training and T: +41 22 767 4020 (Operations) Satellite Data: QB02 / WV02 Copyright: DigitalGlobe 2011 Landcover: UNITAR / UNOSAT Analysis: UNITAR / UNOSAT 24/7 hotline: +41 76 487 4998 Dates: 30/03/11,15/4/11, 28/07/11, Source: FirstLook & European Space Road Data: Google Map Maker Coordinate System: UTM Zone 38N 21-22/08/11 Imaging Admin Boundaries: OCHA Datum: WGS 1984 This work by UNITAR/UNOSAT is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- www.unitar.org/unosat Resolution: 0.6 m/0.5 m IDP Camp Data: UNITAR / UNOSAT Other Data: USGS, NGA, SWALIM Analysis conducted with ArcGIS v10 ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. Table 2- Number of newly formed IDP shelter sites by District 1. DRAMATIC CHANGES IN IDP LOCATIONS WITHIN THE CITY (Cont.) # of newly As of 22 August 20111, there were a total of 226 spatially distinct IDP shelter concentrations Mogadishu formed IDP located within the urban extent of Mogadishu, with an additional 4 large camp sites located a Districts: shelter sites 2 few kilometers outside of Huriwa district , representing an increase of 45 new IDP sites Hodan 12 within the city since 28 July 2011. Of these newly-erected sites, the majority were located in Hamar Jab-Jab 10 several distinct clusters near the Int. Airport, Digfer Hospital, Taleh Village, Bermuda Hawl-Wadag 5 neighbourhood, the Presidential Palace and in areas of Huriwa district. The three largest IDP Wardhigley 5 concentrations in the city (with a combined total of over 13,400 individual IDP shelters) are Wadajir (Medina) 4 presently located in the districts of Hodan, Wadajir (Medina) and Dharkeynley; these three districts also contain the largest proportion of shelter sites (116) covering over 139ha in area. Huriwa 3 Dharkeynley 2 Of the 188 sites identified from 28 July3: 168 have had no appreciable changes either in the Waberi 2 shelter structure total or in the physical extent of the site area; eleven sites expanded in both Yaqshid 1 the number of IDP shelters and total area (with one site expanding by over 2,700 thousand Bondhere 1 shelters – see Section 3 below); two sites contracted in size, and a further seven sites were Totals 45 either closed/relocated into larger sites in close proximity or absorbed by the expansion of adjacent and much larger camps. (Please reference the overview map on page 3 for a detailed visualization of the location and distribution of the IDP camp changes across the city).

2. ESTIMATING A GLOBAL IDP SHELTER COUNT FOR MOGADISHU A detailed shelter count assessment for 52 selected IDP concentrations across the city was conducted as a rapid basis for projecting a global shelter estimate for the remaining 178 open sites identified. Over 18,400 individual IDP shelter structures were identified visually, which ranged from very small, informal shelters constructed from local materials to large emergency tents provided by international aid agencies.

A projection of the total number of IDP shelters located within Mogadishu on 22 August 20114 resulted in a minimum estimate of approximately 41,100 shelter structures in the 230 sites (including the four large sites outside of Huriwa district), concentrated mostly in the south-western districts of the city. This is a preliminary shelter projection, and is likely to represent a reliable minimum estimate; actual IDP shelter numbers within Mogadishu are likely to be larger.5

The relative magnitude and distribution of the shelter count by IDP camp site is shown in Figure 1 below. Of note is the tendency for very small IDP shelter sites with less than 50 structures (usually constructed almost exclusively from informal building materials) to be located within larger shelter clusters, adjacent to significantly larger IDP camp sites.

Figure 1 - Map of IDP shelter counts/estimates by IDP Camp Site

1 The latest available satellite image covering Mogadishu,accessed with the FirstLook Event Service of Digital Globe 2011 2 Approximately 6km outside of Huriwa district to the north-east along the main road to Balad town, near settlement of Ceel-cirfeed 3 See report v1: http://www.unitar.org/unosat/node/44/1577 4Individual shelter structure estimates were obtained for the 230 sites based on a linear function of median tent density values for the 52 control sites. 5 It is probable that hundreds of IDP shelters are located under trees and roof-overhangs along buildings thus preventing identification in satellite imagery. Also not considered are IDP populations residing within permanent buildings. 3. IDP SHELTER TRENDS: CAMP EXPANSION As noted earlier in sections 1 and 2 above, a small percentage of existing IDP camps identified from July experienced significant growth in both the number of IDP shelters as well as the physical extent of the informal camp boundaries. Although most of the eleven sites in question showed only small to moderate growth in relation to their relative size, one camp (site ID 115) located in expanded by over 260% in area and by over 2,750 shelters in only four weeks between 28 July and 22 August 2011, absorbing 3 smaller IDP camps in the process. Currently camp ID 115 has approximately 4,320 shelter structures of varying sizes as of 22 August 2011, making it the second largest in the city after Camp ID 97 in Dharkeynley. There are a further seven newly erected IDP camps within the immediate vicinity. The growth of camp ID 115 is illustrated in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2 - Map of the dramatic expansion of Camp ID 115 in Hodan district

4. IDP SHELTER TRENDS: CONTINUED NORTH-EASTERN DRIFT IN NEW IDP CAMP FORMATION Although the majority of IDP shelter locations remain in the south-western districts of the city under the longstanding control of AMISOM and TFG forces, there is a marked acceleration in the trend of Somali IDPs to erect new camp sites within the north-eastern districts of Mogadishu recently vacated by al Shabaab forces on 7 August 2011. As illustrated in Figure 3 at right, a typical example are the three small IDP camp sites erected in a residential area of Huriwa district, composed of a total of approximately 300 informal shelter structures.

The three largest newly-erected IDP shelter concentrations (see AOI locations 5 and 6 in the overview map on page 3) probably contain at least 1,000 shelters and were located within areas of Wardhigley and Yaqshid districts recently under al Shabaab control. What remains unclear is if the Somali IDPs erecting shelters in these new camps are new arrivals to Mogadishu or are simply relocating from larger existing camps from districts in the south- west of the city.

Figure 3 - new informal IDP camps in Huriwa District 5. RECENT BUILDING DAMAGES AND ROAD CONTROL POINTS There is direct evidence of recent building damages and destruction within the district of Yaqshid, likely the result of the reported major offensive by AMISOM forces against al Shabaab on 28-29 July 2011, which apparently led to their reported withdrawal from the city on 7 August 2011. As illustrated in the Figures 4 and 5 below, over 8 buildings were likely destroyed and further 5-7 buildings severely damaged within the Bacaad Market area (Yaqshid district). It is probable that there are significant additional pockets of recent building damages across the districts of Hawl-Wadag, Wardhigley, Yaqshid, Bondhere and Shibis.

Figure 4 - Bacaad Market before recent fighting (28 July 2011) Figure 5 - Bacaad Market after recent fighting (22 August 2011)

A review of roadblocks, traffic barriers and checkpoints which were located along the primary front lines in the city indicated that in certain districts, a majority of control points have been relaxed or removed entirely, while in other districts these control points have been generally maintained and even increased in number. Approximately 30 checkpoints and roadblocks have been removed since 28 July 2011, primarily clustered along main roads in the districts of Abdi Aziz, Shibis and Shingani, however there remain over 40 active roadblocks within the city, located mostly near the Industrial Road North, the Presidential Palace and Taleh Village. It remains unclear to what extent such control points are affecting the internal movements of IDPs and aid agencies.

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This is a preliminary assessment and has not yet been validated in the field. Please send feedback to UNITAR/UNOSAT at the contact information below.

Contact Information: Please send additions / corrections to UNITAR / UNOSAT: [email protected] Palais des Nations, Geneva, Switzerland T: +41 22 767 4020 (UNOSAT Operations) 24/7 hotline: +41 76 487 4998 www.unitar.org/unosat