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Equinet 281117 S&T AG Germany | Technology Hardware & Equipment Investment Research Full Company Report Reason: Initiation of Coverage 28 November 2017 Buy Rapid evolution of the IoT and Embedded market Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR 17.53 S&T AG (SANT) is an Austrian company listed in the German TecDax index. closing price as of 27/11/2017 The company grew via acquisitions in the past and operates now under three Target price: EUR 21.00 Target Price unchanged pillars: IT Consulting and Services (40% of FY17 revenue), IoT (40%) and Embedded Solutions (20%), the latter of which is comprised of its latest Upside/Downside Potential 19.8% Kontron acquisition. SANT operates in robustly growing Eastern European Reuters/Bloomberg SANT1.DE/SANT GY markets as well as in the DACH region and high growth areas such as IoT and Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,009 embedded technologies, in which we see CAGRs of 10% to 15% for FY17-21e. Current N° of shares (m) 58 We believe that SANT can expand its gross margin from currently 34% to 40% Free float 63% by FY21 and switch to a recurring revenue model with 60-70% of total group Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 206 Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 2,187.76 revenues. We initiate coverage with a BUY rating and a DCF-based target Price high/low 12 months 8.25 / 19.08 price of EUR 21.00 per share. Abs Perfs 1/3/12 mths (%) 4.75/4.44/80.39 Key financials (EUR) 12/16 12/17e 12/18e Sales (m) 504 870 1,001 In our base case scenario we see SANT´s revenue to increase in the FY17-21e EBITDA (m) 34 63 78 period by 10% p.a. EBITDA should rise over-proportionally (CAGR FY17-21e: EBITDA margin 6.8% 7.2% 7.8% 18%) as SANT currently streamlines Kontron´s operations and should EBIT (m) 24 44 55 EBIT margin 4.8% 5.0% 5.5% significantly benefit from its partnership with Foxconn/Ennoconn in cross-selling Net Profit (adj.)(m) 15 31 43 their product pipeline with more than 1,000 designs p.a. ROCE 5.1% 8.7% 10.0% Net debt/(cash) (m) (32) (79) (101) A healthy balance sheet (net cash: FY19 EUR 140m+) and future high cash Net Debt Equity -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 conversion (EUR 50-75m p.a.) should help SANT to further consolidate the IT Net Debt/EBITDA -0.9 -1.3 -1.3 Int. cover(EBITDA/Fin.int) 8.5 18.9 37.4 services market in the DACH and EE region. Bolt on acquisitions will then help EV/Sales 0.9 1.2 1.1 to penetrate more into key customer groups for machine to machine EV/EBITDA 12.8 16.4 14.2 communication and connectivity in industrials, automation, gaming, avionics or EV/EBITDA (adj.) 12.8 16.4 14.2 health and medical sectors. SANT´s IoT products and embedded solutions EV/EBIT 18.2 23.6 20.2 P/E (adj.) 26.3 32.2 26.1 should help bring Industry 4.0 forward. P/BV 2.5 3.8 3.7 OpFCF yield 12.6% -3.4% 2.6% Currently, we view SANT as a pure growth play and market share gainer with its Dividend yield 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% strong foothold in the DACH and EE region. With its Foxconn/Ennoconn EPS (adj.) 0.33 0.54 0.67 partnership and the successful roll-out of new products such as smart metering BVPS 3.50 4.63 4.76 devices, we estimate that SANT is able to keep capex, R&D spend as well as DPS 0.08 0.08 0.08 Shareholders depreciation levels low (1-2% p.a. on sales) and turn into a highly cash Ennoconn Corp. 22%; JPMorgan Asset Management (UK) Ltd. generative entity by FY18. The successful turnaround of Kontron enables SANT 5%; Allianz Global Investors GmbH 4%; to cross-sell its embedded as well as security and Industry 4.0/IoT appliances to vvdsvdvsdy Kontron´s vast customer base with more than 4m installed hardware devices. 20 18 We have conducted a DCF, a peer group valuation and a SOTP valuation for 16 SANT´s three different business units. In our opinion, a DCF based target price 14 of EUR 21.00 per share is the most suitable valuation method for SANT, as the 12 company transforms from a pure low growth IT services firm into a high growth 10 IoT and Embedded solutions provider, with high recurring software revenue 8 streams and predictability of cash flows going forward. Okt 16 Nov 16 Dez 16 Jan 17 Feb 17 Mrz 17 Apr 17 Mai 17 Jun 17 Jul 17 Aug 17 Sep 17 Okt 17 Nov 17 Source: Factset S&T AG Tec Dax (Rebased) We view SANT as a highly attractive growth story for the next five years with Analyst(s) 1) a growing IoT and embedded market 2) Kontron´s successful turnaround in Cengiz Sen FY17 3) move into software solutions and hence recurring revenue streams and [email protected] 4) further margin expansion in coming years. Additionally, SANT could be seen +4969 58997 435 as an attractive M&A target for Ennoconn, holding already 22% of SANT shares. Hence, we initiate coverage on SANT with a BUY rating and DCF- based target price of EUR 21.00 per share. Produced by: For important disclosure information, please refer to the disclaimer page of this report. All ESN research is available on Bloomberg, “ESNR”, Thomson-Reuters, S&P Capital IQ, FactSet Distributed by the Members of ESN (see last page of this report) S&T AG CONTENTS Investment Case and Market Environment 5 Kontron´s turnaround and IoT market growth 5 Moving into recurring revenue streams 6 Gross margin improvement program 8 Valuation 10 DCF valuation assumptions 10 Multiple comparison 11 - Peer group constituents: IT Services 13 - Peer group constituents: Smart Metering 13 - Peer group constituents: Appliance Security 14 - Peer group constituents: Embedded Solutions 15 Triggers & Swot Analysis 16 SWOT Analysis 16 Financials 17 Segment sales 17 Earnings development 19 Cash Flow Analysis 20 Working Capital 21 Equity & Debt 22 ROE 22 Company Profile & Market Environment 24 Company overview 24 Management 25 Shareholder structure 26 Divisional set up 26 Page 2 S&T AG Investment case in six charts Exhibit 1: Turnaround success at Kontron Exhibit 2: Foxconn / Ennoconn partnership and synergies 15 8 11 Program Description Status Completed Impact on financials 10 EUR 200m material cost Outsourcing of manufacturing Dragon 2 30% implemented Dec 2018 reduction with 300bps GM to Foxconn/Ennoconn 5 14 improvement Op. loss 2016 Foxconn delivers HW 0 Merger Dragon 4 embedded products, SANT Open 2021 EUR 400m revenue addition synergies Profit 2017 provides SW solution Leverage Foxconn R&D -5 Dragon 5 design and new product 15% completed Dec 2017 EUR 4m R&D cost savings offensive Market penetration into China -10 6 Gross Margin via IoT volume products via improvements Rising Sun Ennoconn, non-volume and Open 2018 EUR 30m revenue addition -15 12 high margin products via Consultant Kontron China -20 Address large accounts, sell reduction volume IoT products via -25 Dragon 6 Foxconn, high margin Started 2018 EUR 4m in cost savings services and upgrades via SANT -30 -29 Head cost reduction -35 Source: equinet research Source: equinet research Exhibit 3: Full project pipeline and scheduled orders Exhibit 4: Revenue split and EBIT margin development 1,200 7.0% 6.0% 5.5% 1,000 6.0% 5.0% 4.8% 4.4% 5.0% 800 4.0% 4.0% 600 Backlog EUR m Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 3.0% (wo Kontron) 400 2.0% Project Pipeline 308 644 701 1002 1012 1016 200 1.0% Scheduled Orders 97 157 181 306 320 463 0 0.0% IoT Solutions Embedded Systems IT Services EBIT margin Source: S&T AG, equinet research Source: equinet research Exhibit 5: Total IoT market expectation Exhibit 6: Connected devices Products available in 2016 Expected market size CAGR Significance for SANT 30.00 25.00 Embedded boards US$ 3.2bn 8% low Celular IoT 20.00 Non-cellular IoT Embedded systems US$ 3.5bn 10% middle 15.00 PC/laptop/tablet Mobile phones Connectivity US$ 16bn 17% high 10.00 Fixed phones 5.00 Services US$ 58bn 16% important 0.00 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e Total IoT market by 2020 US$ 9,400bn 18% significant Source: S&T AG, equinet research Source: Ericsson, equinet research Page 3 S&T AG S&T at a glance Exhibit 7: Business units and other valuable tidbits Business Units IT Services IoT Solutions Embedded Systems Products/ IT services to small and mid-sized enterprises, IT integration and focus on security Applications dedicated to vertical markets with e.g. security offerings for machines (IoT), Embedded hardware and software solutions, customized products for niche applications applications applications software in IoT grid, operation of IoT services (cloud, on-premise) with long-term recurring contracts Industrial applications such as robotics, automotive, health care, avionics, gaming and Customers Small and mid-sized enterprises in DACH and Eastern European region Communications and avionics customers other high-end niche IoT markets Market share/ Only reasonable data from SANT`s prospectus reveals market share for Advantech of 8%, Below 1% in SANT´s footprint Below 1% in SANT´s footprint positioning Siemens 6% and AdLink of 3% in the European Econimc Area (EWR) Connectivity of devices and increased need for secure platforms in M2M, smart metering System-on-a Chip, enhanced software solutions and niche but customized solutions in the Drivers Outsourcing and cost cutting main drivers for GDP-like growth for SANT in IT Services.
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