World Bank Document

flVTTJMPNT OFW INTMT1RPATTOAT RANKT FPR RPr^NqTRTJCTTCN ANT) TEPVPTOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

Public Disclosure Authorized Not For Public Use _ PS-13 1 VOL.1 Report No. PS-13 Public Disclosure Authorized

LAND AND WATER RESOURCES SECTOR STUDY

BANGLADESH

(in nine volumes)

VOLUME I

DETAILED SECTOR REVIEW Public Disclosure Authorized

December 1, 1972 Public Disclosure Authorized

Asia Projects Department

I This report was prepared for official use only by the Bank Group. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. The Bank Group does not accept responsibility for the aGGi-uracy or comAn1eteness of the report. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

US $ 1.00 Takas (Tks) 7.28 Tks 1.00 US $ 0.137 Tks 1 million = US $ 137,000

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 acre (ac) 0.405 hectare (ha) 1 mile (mi) 1.609 kilometers (km) 1 square mile (sq mi) 640 ac a 29 ha 1 foot (ft) 30.5 centimeters (cm) 10ng ton (1a tnn) = 1.016 metric tonS (Tmtonn) 1 acre-foot (ac ft) = 1,234 cubic meters (m3 ) 1 cubi t p secor. (cusec) or (cfs) 0.028 m3/sec (Local Units)

l maund VFlni = .0367 Lg win 1 maund = 82.2 lb

INITIALS AND ACRONYMS

AI - Artificial Insemination ARI - Agricultural Research Institute (B) ADB - (Bangladesh) Agricultural Development Bank (B) ADC - (Bangladesh) Agricultural Development Corporation BARD - Bangladesh Academy for Rural Development BR - Bangladesh Railway BRRI - Bangladesh Rice Research Institute BUET - Bangladesh University of Ehgineering and Technology GGB - (lentral Cnoonerative Rank CIDA - Canadian International Development Agency GJG - C'.ntrq1l Tute rnmmi ttAe DU - Development Unit FAO - Food and Qt±on GK - Ganges-Kobadak UVUI - U4e, V-;ml in" 'UT!lwo+Aa ILI. V 1Y4gh -ieding _ ie t--- IDE - Institute of Development Economics TPnfD - T,i-,gnal Tral riwngp.vnt Prorar I7RRI - International Rice Research Institute, Philippines TOT T te P.esearch T.4s4tivu VU LU W%& hJ ~* O 0 ~ ~.1 .LW-~ UA .fl LDU - Land Development Unit r' A= Y4l'40. A--- Feet ZL.L..LJ Z LLI W _ U MEO - Mechanical Bluipment Organization rloA) KXd.L JId .VA" J. PCO - Public Call Office aTr~~ Polyiy ., C,hlori; de RWP - Rural Works Program SITDA - S wedshTrn+d-na+4^n nl DTrevlontv-+ Arcynn'r TAO - Thana Agricultural Officers INITIALS AND ACRONYMS (dontinued)

TCCA - Thana Central Cooperative Associations TIP - Thana Irrigation Program TSP - Triple Superphosphate (fertilizer) TTDC - Thana Training and Development Center UAA - Union Agricultural Assistants UNDP - United Nations Development Prograrme USAID - United States Agency for International Development USBR - United States Bureau of Reclamation USGS - United States Geological Survey (B)WAPDA - (Bangladesh) Water and Power Development Authority

Note

II"Te TL-A .-A I.To+- -t - ---- ces Stud = Bangladesh" dated December 1, 1972 was prepared between AJL,ay7 1971 arnU tihe OLUAWJIC IJLo57f 19L7U2u,Le V thegenCe.L-a supervision of the Banks by staff members of the Bank, arn F, wAOith substantial hlpa from consultants. -±i UNDP and the Bank shared the cost of the consulting services. The study is made avaiiable on the understand- ing that it does not necessarily represent the official position of the Government of Bangladesh or of the Bank.

The study is based mostly on data collected prior to March 1971. Although some of the infomnation contained in the study is out of date, the essence of it is valid and it should be useful to the Government of Bangladesh and to other countries, agencies, and institutions interested in the development of Bangladesh.

LANV AND WATER RESOURCES SECTOR S-UDY

The Study Group

Overall Coordination R. Picciotto R. Harma S. Allison T. Hexner (Advisor)

Agriculture G. Stern U Hpu 1/ G. de Brichambaut (FAO/IBRD) Professor Norman Efferson (Louisiana State) H. Brammer (FAO) A. Seager (Consultant)

Water V. Hansen E. Hunting W. Rangeley (Consultant) R. Maasland (Consultant) R. Morton (Consultant)

Economics Professor Robert Dorfman (Harvard)>- Professor Henry Jacoby (Harvard) Professor John M4ellor (Cornell) Richard Will (Consultant)

Regional Planning W. Drewes R. O'Sullivan H. er Rashid

General Assistance B. Oury Y. Nakahara R. Stern N. Reynolds N. Farmer R. Harris D-- - +--4- J. Schilstra (Consultant) A; van. der Graaf (Consultant)

InT-additi;or, to1 their cont-ributionr.V LoItheUVIa.L.L Suu,y, iwr. dUe Bri±cnambau'v and Mr. John Clarke coordinated the work of several FAO experts who p' V+lcipaIte d UinAh prepaL,L-aio of VU.LU,ILRV ILI, IV and V.

J>} With assistan.ce from Peter Rogers, Richarud Tabors arnd T. AlaLgir of the Harvard Center for Population Studies.

B A'UTrT A MC U

LTi A'dTTi ±J.AM DV(TTjDOrO Q1'Jrr1ND C TMVi

IT^ T TII VOVurjul., 1

PREFACE

1. Tnis Study is tne result oi a cooperative efiort involving tianiK Group staff, FAQ and UNDP personnel, consultants and talent from the academic community. in particular, the Harvard Center for Population Studies provided help based on its experience with UNDP-supported systems analysis studies. Tne Bank and U-NDP provided financial assistance for consulting services. The multi-disciplinary nature of the Study required a major integration effort. The Bank staff assumes responsibility for the overalu approach, and for any errors or inconsistencies which exist. Although the Study was prepared after May 197',it Is based, for the most part, on data gathered prior to that date. ii. The Study is the latest link in a long chain of developments. In February 1966, and again in September 1966, missions headed by Mr. Bernard Chadenet of the Bank, Deputy Director - Projects, visited Bangladesh to discuss a Master Plan for Water and Power Resources Development prepared by the International Engineering Company, Inc. and to determine what further action should be taken to develop comprehensive plans for agricultural and water development. In accordance with the agreed "Statement" dated March 1, 1966, a special staff group was assembled within the Bank to review agricultural and water programs and projects in Bangladesh. In 1967 this group reviewed the situation in the field. Potential developments were further elaborated by the Bank team in the Report, "Proposals for an Action Program - Agriculture and Water Development", dated July 17, 1970. iii. Meanwhile the Bank/IDA ,ad financed several projects related to the agriculture and water sector.t , and much new data had been generated, prerequisite to further refinement of the agricultura and water development program. Surveys of soil and land capability and soil fertility were completed under the auspices of UNDP and FAQ, and a surface water hydrologic survey under the auspices of UNDP was continued. Data were Pathered on groundwater hydrology from field investigations and ongoing well drilling programs. Results of the International Rice Research Institute, Bangladesh

nm_n" Dnc=eaIrgioT4--- -o1-4t (l'l -PA^7 1961;. TTO O*Im_4 I r>) Brahmaputra Embankment Project (39-PAK, 1963; US$5 million). Chan T d.4I4TT Tn4Irriga-tion _ f L.A DAY -1 4 -19,T35t$9n -.4 i,j 184-PAK, 1970; US$13. million). Foodra,--n Sto+orsge Project (AWI=PAK' 1966; Twdr19.0 i'Ol 5 ~ v .~~~n -~~~..L7'JJ, %&J'4J.L7* '- MLL.L._LLL%J& * Technical Assistance Project: Consultants to EPWAPDA (136-PAK, 1969; TwTq42 . L4.AA- East Pakistan Tubewells Project (208-PAK, 1970; US$14 million). US$hn8~~~ ml ~ ~ s-ionandce~ ~ ~ Cre-lDsa 4 - A-io6nUg- --.. _ million).;'.J 197;69h… T_L- c8, J 0 ^ -- US$0.8 million and S-10, 1970; US$2.4 million). - ii -

Rice Research Institute, and Ford Foundation joint research program matured with the distribution of several new rice varieties. Technical assistance. such as general consultancy services and systems analysis studies by the Harvard Center for Population Studies was provided to the Water and Power Development Authority. The data and experience generated by these efforts required new analysis and synthesis. This was to be done under comnrehen- sive studies being formulated when the civil unrest broke out in March 1971. To avoid losing the momentum achieved un to that timej thp Bank dided to undertake a comprehensive Land and Water Resources Sector Study in spite of the inabilitv to consult with the Gnvernment; since much of the analysis and resulting new synthesis were of a technical nature, rather than tied to anv narticular institutional arrangement. This nine volu.me Study is the result of these efforts. BANGLADESH

LAND AND WATER RESOuRCES SECTOR STUD

VOLUME I

DETAILED SECTOR REVIEW

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

Preface i List of Tables vi List of Maps vii Basic Data viii Glossary x Table of Contents, Volumes II-IX Summary and Recoimendations xv

CHAPTER I - INTRODUCTION 1

CHAPTER II - THE PROBLEM 4

Economic and Administrative Structure The Human Environment 5 Natural Constraints 6 Population Pressure 8 Past Sector Performance 9 The Potential of New Technology 11

CHAPTER III - A FROGRAM FOR DISCUSSION 13

The Strategy 13 *Tha Samnla Program 1). Macroeconomic Consistency 19 Demand and Sunplv Tmnlications 22 Implications for Alternative Approaches 25

CHAPTER IV - THE TECHNICAL APPROACH 27

Analytic Framework 27 LaTnd Capabi-itv AnptlwsiR 28 Investment Return Calculation 29 Sector - Proalat AnI,vrinR 29 - iv -

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

CHAPTER V - KEY PPOGRAM ASSUMPTIONS 33

Area Agriculture Program 33 Rural Organization 36 Research 37 Agricultural Training 38 Farm Inputs and. SuDporting Services 39 Water Program 40 Fisheries WI

CHAPTER VI - INTERSECTORAT, ASPErTS );

Pnpulatlont and Tmnlovment Education-Standards 47 7N=+m.tl1 Resormrnc 48R Transportation and Communioations 48

CHAPTER VII - THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN DETAIL 54 Total Agriculture Sector Production 54 Food P"ewhinMAnri 5. Food Imports 59 Tlhit+w4 +4 n Non-Food. Production 60 Modern V- T--,+ 62 Water Development 67

Large-Scale Water Control 69 4 A w ,.rnlI +,a,.1l Tn a+ +a+t4on. 7) Rural Organization 77

CHPTER VIII - POTENTIALS FOR MODERNIZING AGRICULTURE 84 Rice 84 Other Grons and T.jvAstoikc 85 Land and Related. Characteristics 87 Temneratures 88 Soils 88 Water Rao7imA 88 Land Available for Human Habitation 91 AdiustmAnts of TraditionnI Croppving Patter.n to Water Regime 91 Land. Adapted for Modern Technolopv as Determined, by Soils and. Land Capability Surrev 93 Water Control Potential 94

'I I TABLE OF CONTNETS

Page No

CRAFPTER TX - THE SAMPLE AGRICULTURE PROGRAM 101

Crrps 101 Livestock 109 F4sherie 111 Implementation of Current Inputs Program. 112

CHAP'rER X - THE. RAMPT.w WATMRP PPA,aM 119

Cnerle119 Irrigation 126 Dra-nnge arnd Flood Control 129

C.AMPTR VT - KYTTD

Fertilizers 137

Input Marketing 142 Daft ULd.I.LV CdLU, A zaUtiCLLLon J'4j Agricultural Credit 144 Agric.L U r-aLd.Lr,erfio.LUn L147 Research 152 nGh PTRR YTT - TrPA TKrC-WA OF Pr7TTTtIRT A (-T('7L TTDA T WDW)ITATL 165

Trairing Requirements 165 fl*A .4 a iJl S aai-l C!+ .4' .*L44 I Irrigation Staff 168 Coo V>i-Uve 5O.&.LS .LLaT.r.I.u6 167 District Training Centers 170 LIST OF'TABLES

Iv-l - AcAre-ge S-i + "'e for, Sp-ci fi-e' Gr psz J.-1 - PopulatioAr D.rasiJ4 ar o-

Trr-- - I - 'JI -..J 'JJ - - 4 + -" J -,I oA Developed VI-2 - Population Densities in Certain Developed and Less CJountriLes5,71965 VI-3 - Structure of Bangladesh Economy (at 1959/60 Factor Cost) I-4- u± VI-4~ V1-4~~~~- Podu'-crruuu-r tion ofL Selec ted tLdustrO'"ies VI-5 - Value of Exports

VII-l - Per Capita Income VII-2 - Private Sector ILI-ves ,w'iL" VII-3 - Rice - Area, Production and Yield vlI-4 - Rice Production per Capita VII-5 - Wheat Area, Production and Yield Vii-6 - Pulses - Area, Production anud Leld VII-7 - Oilseeds - Area, Production and Yield VII-8 - Potatoes - Area, Production and Yield VII-9 - Sugarcane - Area, Production and Yield VII-10 - Estimates Livestock Population VII-ll - Livestock Output VII-12 - Marine and Fresn water Fisn Production VII-13 - Foodgrain Availab- .fore Consumption Prior to 1970 VII-14 - Foodgrain Production and imports Prior to i970 vii-15 - Jute Acreage, Production and Yield VIi-16 - Tea Acreage, Production and Yield VII-17 - Tobacco Acreage, Production and Yield VII-18 - Seed Distribution VII-19 - Fertilizer Consumption VII-20 - District Sales of Fertilizers, 196y-70 VII-21 - Area Receiving Plant Protection VII-22 - Plant Protection Equipment and Pesticides VII-23 - Institutional Credit to Agriculture VII-24 - Agriculture Research VII-25 - Extension

VIII-1 - Land Capability and Improved Varieties - vii -

LIST OF SUMMARY MAPS

1. Areas best suited for concentrated extension effort for £IRu rice varieties and jute.

2. Land suitability for broadcast IRRI aus.

3. Proportion of land suitable for transplanted IRRI aman.

4. Additional crop production possible from introduction of irrigated IRRI rice.

5. Proportion of land suitable for cultivation of oilseeds (mainly groundnuts, mustard and rapeseed).

6. Flooding conditions land drainage potentials.

7. Land Development Units. - viii -

BASIC LATA

0 0 LOCATION: Indian Subcontinent between 20 - 30' and 26 - 45' north latitude and °ooand 92° - 50i east longitude. (Dacca is about the same latitude as Key West Florida).

ARRA (square miles): Tontl Cltivated Percent of Total

5,130 35;160 63.8

POPULATION (Jan. 1971): Total Annual Growith Rural Density (Million Persons) (Percent) (Percent) (per sq. mile) 69.8 &/ 3.1 Over 90 1,266

NATTTMeT. RPVfnTTjP(r.E AM POTTPP

MNatulral Gasc R e--rrrc (Trillion of cubic feet) 4.87 Power Development: (FY 1968) Generation Capacity (MS) 268

T rTTA rGniI A1TAITYT A r A rT,iTWAT T - _ : Qn A1V DrIU1U.dV kUB±u£Lk rLI_1AJ'LL; U- .1 ICLhs

SEASONAL TEMPERATURE:

Degrees Fahrenheit

Sm.m.er Monsoon l,x,~~~~~~~~~ITi+M" (March-June) (July-October) (November-December)

Dacca Max. Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. 90.0 n.074.0 2 77.9 .5 5.0

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (constant factor cost at 1959/60 prices): FY 1970 FY 1965 (US $ Billion) (US $ Billion) 4.57 3.77

SPECTORAL DISTRIBUTION OF GDP AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST (percent):

FY 1970 FY 1S65 Agriculture, Fishing, Forestry ..... 56.3 58.4 Mining and Quarrying ...... 0.0 0.0 Manufacturing ...... - 7.8 6.7 Construction ...... 6.2 5.0 Transportation and Communication 5.8 6.2 Public Administration. Defense 2.3 2.0 Other Economic Sectors ...... 43.6 21.o

/,' Harvard Center for Population Studies estimate for pre-war conditionUs. Corresponding Government estimate is 74.4 million. = 4 -

BASIC DATA (continued)

PERCENT OF GNP AT MARKET PRICE: FY 1965 FY 10968

Gross Investment ...... 13.9 12.7 Gross Savings ...... 9.3 9.7 Balance of Payments Current Account Deficit ...... n.a. 1.6 Government Taxation Receipts (Direct) 1.4 1.2

RESOURCE GAP - PERCENT OF INVESTMENT: FY 1965 FY 1968 32.1 24.0

MONEY AND CREDIT:

Conversion: 1 Taka = US $ 0.137 1 US Dollar = Takas (Tks) 7.28 Relationship to large monetary or customs area: member of sterling area. Money supply and credit: Change from Dec. 1969 Dec. 1960 (Tks 1Million) (Percent)

Total monetary assets ...... 5,360 +2.9 Scheduled bankst deposit liabilities 2,868 -1.0 General wholesale price index (1959160) 100 0000o00000**XvOoo 140.0 +5.3 rflrp!TuDMMVTTTM f0DMDAr PThOT ('rl,- 1F f I , IA: Annual Rate 0o Cihange FY 1966 FY 1969 FY 1966 - FY 1969

Revenue Receipts ...... 1,095 1,336 6.9% Non-Development Revenue Expenditure ...... 655 723 5.2% C. Development Revenue Expenditure ...... 226 h92 130.0% Revenue Surplus ...... 214 107 -126.0o Capital Expenditure ...... 765 1,843 134.0%

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (Tks Million): FY 1961 FY 1970 Total Meca,is ^ot (Foreign and West Pakistan) ...... 1,623 2,593 Total Im,ports, C,I.F. (Foreign and West Pakistan) .... 1,831 3,h65 -x-

GLOS,'SAR

A I\Th -.-

1 Crore = 10,000,000

B. Currency

1 Taka = 100 Paisa

C. Miscellaneous

Bil - Lake. swamp; or vear-round stand4g water body filled by rains or flooding.

Desh - Cultural homeland.

Desi - Local, indigenous.

Katcha - Unimproved. Generally in reference to

Paceca - Twm.,yvvr,=A h4grh ^iia14+vr C in reference to brick or metalled roads and

4 ! f T. fgn Oll-WSt4. a n.nn, . ,,11 4

D. Agr cultural ProuuctoVn

Barani refers to - Rainfed crops as opposed to irrigated.

inarif - Tne summer cropping season (May through October).

Rabi - Tne winter cropping season tOctoDer tnrougn May)

Paddy - unhusked rice. Rice is the husked grain (rice 2/3 paddy).

Jowar - Sorghum

Bajra - Millet

Gur - Country made brown sugar Bhadoi - Crop grown in the latter half of the rainy season

faldJIL.L1J.Zk - CropU p.lanted,~ in the rair.y seasor.L ar.d haI.-vested~ in winter.

Jhum - Slash and burn agriculture as practiced on the hills. - xi-

E. Rice Seasons

In Bangladesh the rice growing year is divided into three seasons, sommewtaI o-verlapp'ng.- .L~ ~ - -- ~ Thcy are:

Aus :

Seeding.1 - nvoaQcast narchx I.- - nay I narvU - iudU-J-u.Ly tUV mid-September Transplanted marcn 1 - April '5

Aman:

Seeding - Broaacast March 15 - April 30 Harvest - Novernbe' 15 to January 15 Transplanted July 15 - Sept. 15

Boro:

Seeding - Harvest - end of March to May Transplanted Nov. - Feb.

The Aus season (about 33.5% of total paddy acreage in 1967/68) is characterized by scattered spring rains. The crop may suffer from drought in some areas, especially during the early part of the season. Paddy is usually grown with serious weed problems. Harvesting takes place during the monsoons and there are grain drying and storage problems.

The Anan season with the largest rice acreage (60% of the total paddy acreage in 1967/68) is characterized by heavy monsoon rains. During this season, deep water can accumulate over wide areas up to 15 or 20 feet deep. Aman rice is either broadcast or transplanted. In the case of broadcast rice in Aman the yields are poor but no other crops could be planted in deep water. Transplanted Aman is the major rice crop on medium lands and represents about 65% of the total Aman area. Seedlings are raised in nurseries in June-July and transplanted to puddled fields in July-September.

The Boro season is characterized by dry weather during the growth stage of the crop and by the lowest temperature of the three seasons. The paddy acreage during Boro season is limited to low lying areas where paddy is planted into receding flood water and growth is sustained by residual soil moisture or to areas with some form of irrigation, either traditional devices, low-lift pumps, tubewells or gravity diversion. Late in the season high winds and showers may spread disease and cause lodging. - xii. -

F. Terms Associated with Civil Administration and Local Leadership

Thana - Original meaning, police station. The tham is tne smallest administrative unit oI the GOP. There are 413 of them in Bangladesh. Q.& or sever, tha,a fOm a S-ub-uiv'sion; three or four sub-divisions form a district; C iAuWMre are 19 di"s'vri'ctls 4.'AU-B-g'^deaUsh.

Circle Ofl?fer - 0tffcer of the civil administrat±on at the thana level; vice-chairman of the thana cnuneil.

Basic Democracies - A five-tiered svstem of councils made up of elected, appointed and ex-officio members. The lowest unit is the union council; there are 4,053 union councils in Bangaldesh representing about 40,000 wards containing over 60,000 villages. The next unit is the thana countil representing several unions. The higher tiers are at the district, divisional and provincial levels.

Deputy Commissioner - Chief administrator of a district and co- ordinator of all departmental activities in the district; also chairman of the district council.

fLaJ -LU.LLU. I d&.J.era1Lyj1LeUq.UU*Ud± 'VJse .14 Lre ferr±n.Latg UU thanas that contain the district headquarters

of +WS,*. civil aA. 4-Wltt at-con,s i1n +.e caze i. Comilla Kotwali Thana.

Matbar - Recognized leader of a neighborhood within a v_llage.

Sandar - Recognized leader of a villaze.

Iman - A religious leader residine in a village and supported by the village people.

Panchayat - A traditional leadership group of five or more village elders.

Union - A unit of local self-government made up of several wards of several small villages each; or a larger village may contain more than one ward.

.USL.t,UrTT-s .J.AIin tsheUIJ.0 IM%.LVLLReKion UJ.of0 Bn--JDW16.Lt%UW0II, dh J'LUn~Dee-e 177

4 - visionls 20 districts 54I slb'-divi iqinnr 413 thanas 4.053 unions 460,00 wards (approximate) 60,000 villages (approximate) over 70,000,000 people (approximate) - xiii -

BANGLADESH

LAND AND WATER RESOURCES SECTOR STUDY

TABLE OF CONTENTS, VOLUMES II - IX

VOLUME II - THE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT POTENTIALS AND CONSTRAINTS

Technical Report No. 1 - Regional Development Framework Technical Report No. 2 - Land Capability Potentials and Constraints

VOLUME III - SECTOR ECONOMICS

Technical Report No. 3 Technical Renort No. 4 - The Land and Water Sector Sequencing Model Technical Report No. 5 - The Special Problem of Emnlovment Technical Report No. 6 - Land Tenancy and. Taxation

VOLUME IV - CROPS, LIVESTOCK AND FISHERIES

Technical Report No. 7 - Rice ThrGhni Gal Re?port Nn . 8 - J_itp Technical Report No. 9 - Sugar Technical RPPnrt .10Nn-l - Tea Technical Report No.11 - Fisheries Technical Repornt No.A12 - Livestockr

VOT.TMl. V MfnlrfM TTPTJTS

Techn-ical Rpovrn.?tnNo13 - Se Technical Report No.l1 - Fertilizer Ten-ch P-v,-w- -aIPev'TIh-cl Ef I- D----,.,o.4n. Tech ,ic-l R r+ No.15 - m a ,oUO.UJJ.1 Jnt Technical Report No.16 - Mechanization and Draft Power

VOLUME VI - RURAL DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS

Technical Report No.17 - The Rural Works Program Tcnal Repor u iNo.18 - The Thana±4 .LL a.L-dti.LWVr.rLur.rZi1 Technical Report No.19 - Agricultural Credit

VOLUME VII - WATER

Technical Report No.20 - Overall Water Resources Potential Technical Report No.21 - The Groundwater Potential Technical Report No.22 - International Water Aspects TechnicaL Report No23u.c - n fall Ania Lyses - xiv -

VOLUME VIII - THE FLOOD PROBLEI

Technical Report No. 24 - Flood in Bangladesh Technical Renort No-. 25 - River System Annlvyses Technical Report No. 26 - Embankment Maintenance

VOLUNE IX - SUPPORTING PROGRAMS

Technical Report No. 27 - Family Planning Technical Report .N-o. 28 - 7u.trition Technical Report No. 29 - The Power System - xv - BANGLADESH

LAND AND WATER RESOURCES SECTOR STUDY

SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

4 T~The nine-volunme Bangladpeh T.Lnd and Water Resources `eŽctor Study (Report No. PS-13) provides an opportunity for the Bank Group to take decisive action to assist t-ha PnalncdesQh aiuthoritipq in the delprinment nf the new nation's major production sector. The Study summarizes and provides a new analysis of all relevant data, introduces techniqiupe ft-r scPtoral planning and for testing macroeconomic consistency, and uses these techniques to con.struct a "sV-'e" progra. for the sector. While the lnttter will have to be refined in the light of discussions with the Government, it constitutes a useful starting proint for-such discussions. The mode'lc nc,itod fn theh Study provide 'tools for elaborating a program consistent with objectives ar.d prioriti-6s established.byth .e G-.rer@

ii. Banglades'U s inhereUnt problem of limited cultivaDle iand, subjected annually to dry season as well as to severe flooding and to periodic cyclone aamage, nas been exacerbated in modern times by a population pressure of mounting intensity. Furthermore, in the past two years, the country has enaured a series of calamities: unusually destructive river floods, an unprecedented cyclone and tidal wave in 1970, followed by nine months of armed conflict. The Government has so far properly been preoccupied with urgent relief and rehabilitation tasks. In both reconstruction and development, primary emphasis must be laid on agriculture and rural development since more than 80% of the people live directly off the land. The overriding priorities in the Government's economic policy are to raise food production fast enough to forestall unmanageable food imports and to provide useful employment to develop rural areas. Over the next few years, however, sustained food imports will be required. This points to the necessity to mobilize domestic resources to undertake without delay a series of quick- yielding, low-cost, labor-intensive projects. Concurrently, planning for long-run programs, both in the land and water resources sector and elsewhere in the economy, should be considered.

iii. The Study deals with the land and water sector from three different angles. First, it considers explicitly the potential of the new agricultural technology in relation to available land and water resources; on the basis of a detailed regional analysis of land capability, water availabili- ties and flooding characteristics, different possible sequences of investment are outlined. Second, implementation capacity is assessed in terms of past sector performance and of specific institutional and policy constraints on the provision of modern agricultural inputs and improved water control. Third, various development activities and areas are ranked in terms of their respective rates of return. On this basis, a production strategy has been designed for implementation over three development decades. This strategy, and the sector programs which would follow from it, are crucially sensitive to assumptions made concerning implementation capacity. Indeed, the Study illustrates that a much higher level of production could be obtained if the pace of agricultural innovation and irrigation development could be accelerated beyond that assumed in the Study. Clearly, the targets in this sector program can only be finalized following detailed consideration by the Bangla- desh authorities and will periodically require revision as additional experience is gained. - xvi -

iv. In brief, the Study confirms that the imperative of rapid production growth entails emphasis on the following key inputs: (a) high-yielding seeds production and distribution; (b) inputs packages comprising seeds, fertilizer, plant protection and improved draft animal power; (c) low-lift pump irrigation and small drainage improvements; (d) minor to medium-size drainage works; (e) tubewell irrigation and double pumping _/; and (f) early investigation of increasingly more difficult and major drainage works, including poldering in deeply flooded areas for flood protection and irrigated agriculture. The "sample" program derived from this production-oriented strategy starts with a first tenl-year segment entailing total expenditures of US$3,`82 million of which US$1,434 million would be in foreign exchange. Major cost elements are cal- c"u.LaOlbd 'ae U n th'le4.LL Q>uUYC.&L.3Lu as 3.-oll-s's.1J..LP

…------.,(US$ million) ------Tersyvear 1973-70 197d-83 TOTAL

Total FE Total FE Total FE

Rural Infrastructure 208 9 283 15 492 23

Inputs

Seeds 18 7 11 4 29 11 Fertil-zer 9212 Q9 )166 210 679 303 Plant Protection 81 72 284 265 365 337

W4ater MaJor Projedts 138 68 17)4 81 312 149 Project Preparation 27 19 74 9 40 28 Low-Lift Pumps 68 46 99 56 168 104 Tubewells 88 57 134 83 222 1)40 Multi-purpose Projects 183 51 246 61 429 112 Rural Infrastructure-Water 77 16 93 17 170 33

Supporting Services

Credit 169 - 234 - 403 - Agriculture Extension 74 24 112 31 186 55 intergrated Rural Credit 43 16 11 2)4 1'54 )4° Research and Training 53 21 82 32 135 53

Pre-Investment Studies 39 28 31 23 71 51

TOTAL 1)480 527 2,372 906 3,852 1,431 v. Under the postulated program, top priority would be given to the develrlopmet of rural infrastructuare thrnuDh 1 ahoL1r-intrn9aiv techniques, and related human resource development actions. With respect to agricultural production, the Study takes specific account of the regional pattern of land and water resources. Concentration areas of high potential are selected for early application of an intensive inputs package. Jute, the most important export crop, would receive special attention in selected sections of the concentration areas. A minimum package is recommended for the balance of the rural areas. The water program has been designed to fill the long-term gap that would otherwise exist between future demand and the level of production that can be achieved from modern agricultural inputs alone. rhe Std# also proposes special programs to develop fisheries and livestock, which are shown to have considerable de-velopment -potential.

1 -Double pumping weans pumping water over two separate lifts with a pump installation at each to bring water to the field. - xvii - vi. Policy formulation emerged as a major focus for attention. A need for reorientation is particularly crucial to the future outcome of drainage/flood control/irrigation programs. The physical layout of the Bangladesh delta requires gradual development similar to that experienced in other deltas such as the Rhine, Nile and various Japanese deltas. The delta lends itself to scattered developments not requiring large indivisible investments, and the Rural Works type approach can be applied if backed up with adequate engineering. This type of program can be expanded or contracted rapidly as needs be. A start can be made immediately, but regional master plans need to be prepared without delay. vii. There is a need also for other reorientations in development policies. Incentives to farmers need to be improved so as to reduce the burden of development on administration. This requires measures such as improving incentives to use small irrigation pumps (smaller than 1 cusec capacity), the strengthening of price incentives by means such as improving the farmgate price of jute, Food Department's grain purchasing in surplus areas to reduce seasonal fluctuations, and providing price incentives for crops like oilseeds. Training programs and institution building for agricul- tiire need to be strengthened.

CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION

1.01 This volume constitutes a synthesis of the major points arising from the nine-volume Bangladesh Land and Water Resources Sector Study. The Study is the latest step in the Bank's involvement with this sector doMting hbaeck tn the Aarlv sixttes= Re.-ent events have frustrated efforts to put accumulated knowledge to effective use. The current Study builds on that accumulated knowledge, adds t+o it in important respects, and points to the opportunities for taking decisive action, both in the short and Inn& t.rm- ton dvelon thA nAntnr and 8A make a mainr onntribution to the development of the economy as a whole and to the well-b6ing of the people.

1.02 It is 5tLUC.Ly necessary to poLnt out that this is an nistoric moment for seizing those opportunities. With civil and international war behind it, the new Go-vernm-tent of the new state of Bangladesh is able to tackle afresh the difficult tasks that have always faced the territory. Withn inependence, the country has established an entirely new set or international relationships. In particular, major issues related to riparian rights to river water are now being reviewed in a different iight. Co- operation with India has changed the possible solutions to the costly problems of flood control and irrigation. Furthermore, as Bangladesh has gained access to new markets and to sources of coal and construction materials, particularly in India, commercial links are being restored which could make the Bangladesh economic equation somewhat easier to solve.

1.03 Reconstruction, after both natural and man-made disasters, is now under way. Action after the November 1970 cyclone damage 1/ has been followed by emergency steps to mitigate the worst effects of the December 1971 war. Opportunities exist to link these relief and rehabilitation programs with an early and sustained effort, for the development of rural infrastructure and the creation of rural employment opportunities. The initiative should be seized without delay while the world community, primed to Bangla- desh's emergency situation, is most amenable to responding to the country's needs.

U.L4 Dauk StaMfL.and colu.I taLLtULEIsJU bUogWe11L W'.tLh ^LO per1DU1LJU.l Worli.L11g under the FAO/IBRD Cooperative Program, produced the Study during the period

o.L #,L"ULA.-L.L o.L ±7 (1. to ear-ly 172c w1hen acto.L±A iL Lol= L.LW.Ld Ws prLec.L"U. Thus, the Study as now drafted was elaborated without the usual joint con- .. -4.1 ..- 4...L1L.. . . T... LI--A. A.2L. L Ul _. SuiLtL.at.onLU NJ.tal goVer.LIJ1LUtUk.L uLLLItS.L-"-LWt0W. No tIUW b AtLIW LXUVtL-1VLJUe haL begun to plan for reconstruction and development, an international dialogue on develUop,.entu poulicy aJ programmuing can be res-ameu. ±ime tuLy Li i Df- tended as an initial contribution to such a dialogue.

1/ The Reconstruction Program for the Cyclone Damaged Coastal Areas of Bangladesh is described in a report circulated to the Executive Directors of the Bank on December 7, 1970. 1.05 The principal features of the Study are an analysis and synthesis of all relevant data. minh of it only recent.1l asse.mbled; the introduction of methodological techniques for sectoral planning and the testing of inter- sActoral consistency; and the ut±.i1izatiAn of those tehniques for the construction of a "sample" 30-year program for land and water resources development. with a particulanr emphasis on the progrnm content for the first ten years. The Studyr breaks new ground in the following respects:

(a) it takes explicit account of the variations of project costs and betnefit-s. unvdr varying conditions identified by recent soils and hydrologic investigations and of the spatial allocation of la.nd an.d water resourbces T!ithin the region;

(b) it draws the policy implications of recent research-based tecl;nologi cal breakthroughs in rice prosuction (tbe stapl crop);

(d) it outlines a possible sequence of projects that could be phased to meet specific economic objectives within various alternative assumptions as to resource constraints; and

(e) it relates possible development programs for land and water against the background of a perspective economic planning model, extending beyond the year 2000.

1.06 It is recognized that these techniques and "sample" programs are subject to considerable modification once the Government has had an opportunity to define its own strategic policies and priorities and as the full impact of a variety of constraints, particularly financial, manpower and institutional, become better known. But the synthesized data collected in the Study, together with the new methodologv employed provide essential tools for elaborating an action program geared to the new nation's development objectives.

1.07 The Study emnhasizes agriculture and rural develobment. This is deliberate. It reflects the stark reality of a country where over 80% of the npeonle live off the land. vhere jute is the only mnior exnort commoditv and where mineral and energy resources are small save for natural gas deposits. Tt. a1s6 reflects the overrriding priority of emxanding agriculture sector activities fast enough to forestall unmanageable food imports and unemployment- Yet.. the Stu1dV estnhli.shes thnt. nn economic strntPerv eenred solelv to agricultural development cannot meet the long-run requirements of the country. Even as agricuilture fuilfills its potential; education; transnort and industry will be competing for attention and resources. Furthermore, the Report highlights the need for further inquiry, inclnding the imn=ct of changed economic and trade relations with neighboring India. - 3--

1.08 Effective long-run development of the country's land and water resoAirrpe imnlip5 jnvAstm.nnt in basin-wide develoPmenn - The rlvers which empty into the Bay of Bengal originate in the, Himalayas and have large stretches passing throgh India. Cooperation between. Indiaj Nepal nd Bangladesh may minimize the need for technically difficult and economically costly mean.s of navigation, irrigation, -ndflood control- Similarly, as Bangladesh gains access to the Indian market and to Indian coal and construction materials, coerciallinks w411 'km restore whic sho1ul mnlke the Bangladesh economic problems somewhat easier to solve.

1.09 Chapter II describes the imraediate problem facing Bangladesh. Chapter TII ------a str-e+- -an hit=er rga VX ~ .Z.L.L 0 -J. L V.~.a jCI% -1-l L UO~jJJ J U j-J ~-CL k'J -'WG.VI"! forLSJ± CLVLIattack- zxL.L ing the problem, with detailed costs for the first ten years. Chapter IV describesthe te-chn-ical used4 indrvngtepora 4ppoac hl UVMJ ~ULJ0~ t4A. CI4JIJ.UL U11..LUOVULLI± U,L.LJ±.L 11 lIA; jJ1LJr± dtI±. VdIL.-LJ- Chapter V discusses key program assumptions. Chapters VI and VII describe int-ersect'[Ioral aspectl,-s and UtVUdetail Uo. thLIe agri,cltrU rLU1 s Uecto Utoate, whLIle Chapter VIII discusses potentials for modernizing agriculture in the future. t'lt_ 4- - | _V -3 V, ------4I J_4 41 e - __1 ._t __ _- __ _ _ - ,savLjjLpcLQ .LA d.lU A Y.A-UOGL1 U aLL.LO uDLi U1Jt; )D.eLJJ.Lt e±U.LU±LLUw diulu WcAUA. pIu- grams. The final two chapters describe key supporting programs and training requirements for achieving the pL-ugL-aUIm!s production, orgaEUiUaUional and institutional goals. -4-

CHAPTER II. THE PROBLEM

2.01 At this point in history, Bangladesh faces-a set of crc stances which may well constitute the most difficult development problem in the world; a large population of around 74 million in relation toa limited amount of available cultivable land, a third of which is subject to annual floods. The coastal areas are ravaged by periodic cyclones. These natural conrstraints have been magnified by a population pressure of mounting intensity. Against

L L.t~LDL~tOaOL& LLO L11 LAL LC L. L.WW. OI.L t this setting,5 Bangladesh-has in the last .oyasedrdasre o0CL _UO WJLfcl.l tO.O ities. In November 1970, after suffering unusually destructive river floods, B.aLg laAdesh- hit~ by --Aon -and -which wasWL O II.L. L. 01an unprecedentedUIj LL U=11LLtU Lt_%.L±ULLC CLU tidalL-LUO- wavWCLV= W .L%LL killedMN±±±.LU several hundred thousand people and destroyed the assets of millions of cultivators andU fishermen ir, the coastaLL areas. From March to Decem,ber 1971, the entire territory was involved in an armed conflict which resulted in further UetrLLUctLoUI U l IdLUnIal assets anu' in the displacemenL dllU lalrdbsUImIIL UL millions of people. The war over, the country was left with little of its basic inirastructure intact, with millions of returning refugees to be re- settled and with a critical food shortage.

2.02 Since the end of hostilities, the authorities have been preoccupied with meeting urgent relief and rehabilitation needs. These tasks continue. But the time has come to consider the opportunities for improvement and modernization which the rebuilding of the shattered economy opens up. It is to that problem that the Study adresses itself.

Economic and Administrative Structure

2.03 The economy of Bangladesh is traditionally and predominantly agricultural. About 90% of the country's population is rural, and about 80% of these are engaged in agriculture. Agricultural output accounts for about 55% of the gross domestic product, a share that has remained virtually constant over the past decade. Even with increases in jute manufacture after the Partition from India, total industrial output still accounted for only 9% of the GDP. Sixty-five percent of all industrial production is accounted for by the processing of jute, cotton, sugar, oil seeds, rice and wood products. All in all, there has been little increase in real income per capita in Bangladesh since the mid-sixties (about US$64 at the official exchance rate). Because of the preponderance of agriculture and its vulnerability to natural disasters, the overall rate of economic growth has been erratic, varying from less than 1% per annum to 8% per annum.

2.04 Contributing to the region's Door growth has been a markedly inadequate rate of domestic investment. Gross investment has averaged about 11% of GDP throughout the past decade. This ratio is well below that required to produce acceptable rates of growth of GDP. Public investment as a percentage of GDP in Bangladesh has varied between 6% and 8%. Ranged against the magnitude of the requirements, public funds were grossly inadequate. 2.05 Bangladesh is in the process of reviewing its entire governmental and administrative machinery. At present the country is divided into 52 districts, 420 thanas, 3.995 unions, and 65,000 villages. The thana is an effective administrative unit for implementation of rural development. It is sufficiently large to make the planning and implementation of development projects technically efficient; it is important enough that the Government is willing to assign competent deDartmental representatives to it; and it is small enough to permit communication between any thana citizens and the thana headauarters. as well as coordination between the departmental reDresentatives and village leaders in the thana council. As a result, local government has ceased to be merely a seat for the nolice and for the taxation administrators: it has become the focal point of rural development:

The Human Environment

2.06 The average land-owning villager possesses only 1.5 acres. He rents nnthasr.oher creror fvrninromthe i-ha well-to-dor.7 1 -tn-tin x74_villagers 1 I n wro and-nrtl thereforei-ho rfnit. cultivaer',,lt-4irn1-oa ------r. neroaares.- This area is usually fragmented into ten or more plots, some of which may be a mile or more away from the homestead He owns one scrawny cow, used for ploughi.g. The plow is a light 15-pound affair, which digs only two or three inches into the ground. For breaki.g up the hard clay clods he uses a mallet or a ladder-li4 k harrow which the cow drags around the field. For quicker ploughing, two or more 'l thLei4Lr rCesuc,rut and it fa-mers usua"Llly* .AO~.L.yp oo-.JJ.L LL~LL L~~/UL --IiU A J.. -LOis 4L*.L Lt- %I.ULUU.LLcoo see fild being ~L~.LO1 9 , L.U 0= L.L=.LU&O UJ=.LLLr 3 ploughed by a team of two or six cattle.

2.07 Most of the family resources is the value of the rice kept for ___._ J__T_J__^] _--^ -t-______-1- C - 1 ___ -IC1 ___ J consumU-ptLoun. It Xs estjL LeU LHUL LLe average faluILy ol tnree aluULb allU three minors consumes 1,850 lbs of rice a year. This can be grown on two acres. Since the usual rent of rice land is 5ul. or the crop, the average villager will get the produce from only two acres. In order to buy cooking oil or fish or some clothing, the family may eat less than they need to and sell some of the rice for the other requirements. The farmer may grow some Jute or onions or tobacco, earn a somewhat higher return from his land and buy the rice. Market uncertainties and the nature of the flooded land, however, inhibits him from switching too much land from rice to other crops. For festivals, marriages and other social occasions he borrows from relatives or, failing that, from money lenders. Since he lives from hand to mouth, he is just able to keep up with the interest payments and hardly ever clears the principal. The occasional bad year puts him even deeper into debt.

2.08 The life of the landless laborers in the villages is even more grim. It is estimated that one-fifth:of the villagers are landless. They work mainly as field hands or laborers in various projects. Their huts are much poorer and smaller than those of the landowners. The roof is usually of rice straw and does not quite keep out monsoon rain. The walls of plaited bamboo are often patched together. The bigger landowners sometimes allow their field hands to build a lean-to next to their homestead compound. They are at the mercy of the landowners and are often evicted after a bad harvest. These uprooted people are quick to migrate to towns. When working on the farms they earn two meals of rice and Tks 2 to Tks 3 a day during the peak of planting or -0- harvesting season. During the slack period hardly one in four will get a job, and even that is for Tks 1.5 a day and no meals. During the slack season therefore, the jobless are desperate for work and often travel 100 miles or more to projects providing some employment, such as the Coastal Embankments. At planting or harvesting time, they move back close to their home area.

2.09 The introduction of the transistor radio brought about a major change in village life. People hardly aware of the outside world heard of local and world events. They began to understand that other people did not necessarily live in a social setup similar to their own. This awareness, coupled with the political movements afoot, has brought up new leadership in villages, younger and more radical than the established village leaders. It is to these new elements-that the new Government is looking to build the institutions on which economir develonment will he based.

Natural Constraints

2.10 Althnuoh it has a nonulation of about 7h million (1971). Baneladesh is a small country geographically with only some 25 million acres of cultivable land, surrnounded on the west, north and northeast yh Indi, on the snouth- east by Burma and on the south by the Bay of Bengal. Much of the region is a "TMOfwrv of t-renTc cntiting Aelta nf three of t-he wonrld'sa biggest- rivers (the Brahmaputra, the Ganges, and the Meghna). The population is crowded 4ma relativ7e;ly7 small r {(5,0ono 0 snnqnar milec) 1/ a Fthrrl of w.7hich is floondeda every year. Cyclones forming in the Bay of Bengal periodically ravage the noa1stlzne.

2.11 Tne aliuviai plains oI Bangiadesh rise with very low gradients from the Bay of Bengal in the south to the foothills of the Assam Hills in the northeast and the Himalayas, a few miles outside Bangladesh, in the northwest. This overall picture disguises considerable variations in local relief. Complex local differences in elevation are important in planning irrigation and drainage, especially as they are usually associated with important differences in soil permeability and associated crop suita-bility.

2.12 Because monthly mean temperatures never fall below 600, the climate is favorable for crop growth 12 months of the year. Annual rainfall ranges from 50 inches in the southwest and west to over 200 inches in the northeast. The monthly distribution of rainfall follows the usual pattern of monsoon Asia, with heavy rains starting in May and ending in October and little rainfall at other times. The groundwater table over most of the country is high. Most of the soils have been developed on the flood plains and deltas of large rivers and are somewhat above average in fertility for a tropical country. There are no large areas of virgin land to be opened up. Thus, increased agricultural production must come from land that is already being farmed.

2.13 The Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river delta (25,000 square miles) includes waterways, totalling at least 15,000 miles in length. These waterways increase in number and size from the northwest to the southeast. The drainage area of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna system covers 600,000 square miles, but only 7.5% of this lies in Bangladesh. The Brahmaputra

1/ It is one-quarter the size of France, one-third the size of Japan, and one-half the size of Germany. -7- and Ganges rivers have enor-ous discharges (t he istorical peak f ood of 4.5 million cusecs is about twice that of the Mississippi and an annual flow six times hat Of tbhe Ird'-) aannd c h-Lg1h- r ein loa"---about 2.4 billion tons annually (five times that of the Indus)--and are still experiencing major sl'i 1S in he'r ch-ar.nels g- l-± - control in the region.

2.14 The water regime is typical of monsoon climates; often there is either too much or too little water. In the monsoon season the great rivers rise to high levels causing extensive flooding either by direct overbank spillage or by impeded natural drainage. During the relatively long dry season (November-April), the river levels are low. The extremes in discharge lead to contrasting problems of deficiency for irrigation and navigation during the winter and flooding during the summer monsoon months.

2.15 The development of water resources in Bangladesh has lagged behind that of the sub-continent as a whole for two main reasons. Firstly, apart from periodic famines caused by extreme floods and cyclonic storms, the agricultural production in this high rainfall region met the needs of the people till the early 1940's. Secondly, the development of water resources, whether by irrigation of the dry lands or by protection and drainage of the flooded land, is relatively expensive and technically complex compared with most other parts of the world. Over the last 20-30 years, the balance of food supply and demand has changed rapidly and Bangladesh has become an area of serious food deficit -- a situation worsened by economic isolation from neighboring territory created by the Partition of India. Furthermore, the consequences of flooding that occurs over more than a third of the country and of the marine salt intrusion in the delta havebecome more devastating and socially unacceptable as the population density has reached alarmingly high levels, compelling more people to dwell in areas vulnerable to floods and cyclones.

2.16 The villaRers are used to the "normal flood" and the crops grown are adapted to it. However, it does restrict the cropping in many areas and, in some years, there are abnormal floods. which do a great deal of damage either because of their timing, duration, or extent. If there is an early flood, it can ruin voune rice and iute Dlants in the fields or destroy seed beds. If there is a long flood just after the summer-sown rice has flowered there is often a sharn fall in yveld. These flonds rise and fall fairly quickly, but if they last over four days a great many rice plants are destrovpd. Moreouer- flonds of liniisinl height drown short-stemmed r_ce plants on intermediate and relatively high lands. Apart from crop damage, floods also knock down. houses, erode road emban.kments, accelerate river bank erosion and result in loss of life.

2.17 Cyclonic storms are an important feature in Bangladesh climate anA oon r ela on more dAmage than the annual rer floods. IT-op---l storms usually form in the southeast portion of the Bay of Bengal, move in a northerly or ,nort-h.watrY -----r -c- anrd _fter. turn r.orthe------eastrly_ i--to t coast of the country. Reports of property damage and loss of life caused by recent c-clones have been greater than those of earlier cyclones. -This is partly due to increases in population density and property development and more - 8 - complete reports on damage. The time of occurrence of a cyclone as related to the stage of nlanting or growtth of rice influences markedly the wamount of crop damage. Improved cyclone warning and shelters for protection from storms are a vital need in the co-astal area, Better -irland ar. -ter transport and telecommunications, maintenance of a secure source of fresh water supplies, emer- gPenc1y fonond stora.ge and completion of coastal emban&m.ents along th .oast are also required. On economic as well as on humanitarian grounds, a program for the coastal areas should proceed as soon as practicable.

Pnpulation Pressure

2.18 While land and water resources available to Bangladesh permit considerable intensification of agricultural activity, such intensification can d no1o more thLar Uuy timLLLe uuriLrg -whilch populatioi planning coulu Uecome effective. Census figures suggest that Bangladesh population has increased from 42 million personsU in 1951 to 53.5 million in 1961, at the implicit annual average rate of 2.4%. The estimate of 74.4 million people in 1971, used by the Planning Commission, impJies an annual average rate of 3.1% over the sixties. Population pressure on land, which is already highly settled, is expected to increase further even if efforts in family planning are effectively implemented beginning in 1973 so that there is little chance of maintaining the present estimated 0.6 - 0.8 acres per farm worker until 2003, let. alone increasing it. Between 1960 and 1970, fertility rates in Bangladesh declined from over 7.0 to about 6.5 births per woman. Mortality rates started to decline after the Second World War from around 30 deaths per thousand to the present level of about 17 deaths per thousand. A continuing high rate of population growth is generally expected over the next two decades or so.

2.19 Two projections have been used in the Study for planning purposes. They are believed to provide the most likely range within which the population level is expected to lie. One assumes a small decline in fertility, the other assumes a greater decline which might be reasonably expected in the lightof comparable experience elsewhere. 1/ The upper range for planning assumes fertility rates which decline from about 6.8 births per woman to 4.9 births per woman in year 2000. Under this projection, population would increase at rates of about 3.2% annually through 1975, 3.4% annually through 1980, and then decline gradually to an average annual rate of 2.9% by 2000. The lower range is based on fertility -rates which decline from 6.8 to 3.2 births per woman in year 2000. Under this projection, population increases at the rate of about 3.4% annually through 1980 and then at annual rates which decline to 1.7% through year 2000. It is believed that these two projections provide an envelope of reasonable expectations for development planning and would result in a total population in the year 2000, between about 140 million and 175 million.

2.20 Labor absorption in the non-agricultural sector has been very slow and available data suggest that the proportion of population in agriculture actually increased in the fifties. If such a trend were to persist 90% of future increments in the labor force would have to be employed in agriculture. Because of the small base of the non-agricultural sectors, even a substantial increase in non-agricultural employment would do little to relieve the need for increased productive work opportunities within the agricultural sector in the course of this decade. A 5-6% increase in non-agricultural employment

1/ International comparisons suggest that the low population projection is likely to obtain only if the overall economic strategy is reasonably effective in raising per capita incomes, in improving nutrition, health and education services and in alleviating severe inequalities in economic opportunities. -9- would mean an absorption by the non-agricultural sectors of only 200,000 - 30,OOf00 ner year in this decade leaving 700,000-800,000 per year to be absorbed in the agricultural sector. Such an increase in non-agricultural employment would be an extraordinary achievement for a region which lacks substantial infrastructure and industrial skills. If, as is likely, it is not achieved, agrii-lltilre will have to carrv an even greater employment burden. This under- scores the need to encourage labor-intensive technologies and to expand rural works opportunities in t-he rninl-trvide. In the long run. however, labor absorption will have to occur largely outside of agriculture.

2.21 Modernization of agriculture in Bangladesh should allow significant absorption of labor at increasing per acre nrnductivitv levelq. While the high-yielding rice varieties are not likely to lead to dramatic increases in cropping 4-.tensit-4is -expt in specific areac cuch as the Barind tract in the northwest, labor requirements per acre should go up with yield increases related to increased inputs utilization and to shifts from broadcast to transplanted paddy crops. The Study projects a 50% increase in rice output during 1973=83 .d an i.ncrease In related requirements of about 20%. This is equivalent to a direct increase of 270',000 jobs per year or about a fourth of the incre- men-Lt to thILe labor fLorce. 1"owever, thke multipli4er employment effects in processing, marketing and provision of inputs can be expected to be substantial.

2.22 Medium- and long-term demand for foodgrains and other essential foods, such as fishr, pulses, and oils, will be determined primarily by the size of the population and by income levels. Foodgrains and pulses are the basic stapLe fLoodus andU their dUemuand is rel-atively price inelastic. Despite wide fluctuations in the price of rice over the 15-year period between 1956 and 1970, per capita demand showed a steady increase of about i% annually. The long-run influence of price changes on demand for basic foods is likewise not expected to be significant in the next 10 to 15 years.

Past Sector Performance

2.23 Food production increased only slowly during the last 20 years. Rice production increasing at only 0.7% per annum in the 1950's compared with a population growth rate of nearly 3%, led to a steadily deteriorating food supply situation. Even the respectable growth rate of 2.9% a year in total rice production between 1962/63 and 1969/70 lagged behind food requirements as the total demand for foodgrains is estimated to have increased 3.3 - 3.5% during the same period. Bangladesh has thus become increasingly dependent on food imports, which grew from 775,000 tons a year during the first half of the decade to 1.2 million tons during the second half (about 9% p.a.) and to 1.5 million tons in 1969/70.

2.24 Jute production increased from 6 million bales a year in the early sixties to about 7 million bales in 1969/70 when 2.9 million acres were planted with jute. Yields have decreased since 1965 (3.5 bales/acre to 2.9 bales/acre), while area planted was increasing (1.7 million acres to 2.4 million acres). Bangladesh's share of the world export of jute and allied fibers declined during this period in spite of the small increase in production. Tea production increased at more than 50% p.a. during the same period, with the extension of tea plantations from 78,000 to 105,000 acres. All tea is of a relatively poor quality lowland type used only for blending. 2.25 Inland fisheries rank next only to crop production in importance adiL furni~sh the bu`l or tle arL. aL PLULprtin CUnUlUILtiLUn in Lne Uiete of tne rural population. The number of inland fishermen is estimated at 600,000 most of whoim are landless Hindus. SDome 5 million people derive their livelihood either directly or indirectly from capture or culture of fish in inland waters ana ponds. Tnese activities are labor-intensive, and being close to consumer centers, do not require investment in elaborate marketing systems. The per capita consumption of fish has, however, decreased steadily for a number of years and this neglected sector of the economy is no longer able to supply the dietary needs of the rural population.

2.26 The agricultural inputs program has developed rapidly since 1965; fertilizer consumption has increased by 23% a year and in 1970 reached about 275,000 tons of Urea, Triple Super Phosphate (TSP) and Potash._'i Use of pesticides in 1970 is estimated to have reached 8.4 million acres. The Accelerated Rice Program initiated in July 1970, involved the import of 1,800 tons of IR-20 seeds from the Philippines (enough to plant 180,000 acres) and the provision of other inputs and technical assistance as part of a package program available on credit. In the 1971 monsoon season some 500,000 acres were sown to IR-20. 2.27 Cooperatives have been set up using new patterns developed and tested by the Academy for Rurai Development in Comilla. Thana Cooperative Associations (TCCA) were created in 15 thanas to encourage the formation of farmer groups and to distribute supervised short-term credit and inputs through village primary cooperatives. The original cooperative system is expected to form the core of a small farmers development program and to be the main channel for financing rural development. The present Cooperative Bank network covers 8,500 villages (out of a total of 65,000), and 4,100 union-based multipurpose societies.

2.28 A most successful approach to irrigation has also been developed on a cooperative basis. The Thana Irrigation Program (TIP) was initiated as a means of providing irrigation facilities in response to requests from groups of farmers formed into cooperative water user groups. Development of surface water -- where it is available -- is accomplished by diesel-driven pumps of 2 cfs capacity. By far the easiest and cheapest approach to irrigation, these "low-lift" pumps lift water out of channels, irrigate 30-40 acres each and cost only about US$1,500. In 1970/71, about 24,000 low-lift pumps were fielded under this program to irrigate a total of about 0.8 million acres. Development of groundwater (essential where surface water is not available) is a slower and costlier process involving the construction of "tubewells" 200-300 feet deep, costing US$10,000-$20,000 but having only the same 2 cfs capacity as the low- lift pumps. About 1,000 Agricultural Development Corporation (ADC) wells have been developed under the TIP. The Water and Power Development Authority has an additional 365 large-capacity wells in the Thakurgaon Tubewell Project. The total area irrigated by tubewells in 1970/71 was about 200,000 ac.

2.29 The Rural Works Program was designed to stimulate the initative of the rural people in undertaking local infrastructure development. Started in 1962, it reached its peak in 1967/68 with the creation of 22 million man-days of employment for an expenditure of Rs 120 million (US$16.7 million). Severe budgetary constraints during the three-year period after 1968 as well as the

1/ Equivalent to 131,600 nutrient tons. - 11 -

rcvrSl_4id a n d rnntiit-irni ------iinhPnxni-1 t-h-t vpnr at-a the- - Himpr- - were nrimarilv resnonsible-v -- r for the subsequent fall-off in the Rural Works Program effort. Planning begins at the 1owTest nxiovrTm.nt lel, the Uninn rGionril,- where lnr…l m,.m.rq develon project plans for their own villages. By engaging the rural people themselves in the- planning nndl 4mnle.a"tntatin of ruvral wo-r1r, this appnroach offers a relatively inexpensive means of rehabilitating rural infrastructure while pro- v ,4 Ading a large numr Fo1 f J obs Works- undertakan incliuAe nfnt-riwt4rn rrn__dsQ bridges and culverts, irrigation and drainage ditches and a variety of their pubkli4c facilit-ie 4ir r 1ralaes-inc luding -chools mark- plaOc a r.v 4 1d1 cia ponds.

2.30 The Coastal Embankment Project was started in 1962, and represents thLLe siLngLe largest develop.ment projectJdate. un.dertaJken to It was dAesigned primarily to prevent salinization of soils in the coastal areas by preventing sea water flooding di periods of high tide. Phase I of the project, originally scheduled for completion in 1971/72, involved the construction of over 2,000 miles of emban'kmuent and 700 sluices, to protect more than one million acres. During the cyclone of November 1970 the embankments constructed to that time were breached in many places. Repair work is still in progress.

The Potential of New Technology

2.31 Nature endowed Bangladesh with substantial agricultural resources. hLle soils are producti LlU lad Vha bUstaLIeU LUntLilUUUs cLUpping for centLUrLes with very little fertilization. The climate is suited for year-round production. This enables two or even more crops a year to be grown if proper technology is applied, thus effectively multiplying the crop acreage. However, the dry season from NovemDer through marcn restricts winter crop proauction except where soils have exceptionally good water holding capacity, or where irrigation facilities are available. The near flat topography is favorable for field work but prone to drainage and flood problems.

2.32 On balance, although natural conditions are not optimal, agriculture can be considerably intensified on most of the cultivable area. Further technological advances, unlocked by adaptive research now under way, should contribute signiticantly to such intensification.

2.33 Bangladesh's rice production technology has long been dominated by varieties with limited capacity to utilize fertilizer efficiently. Tradi- tional varieties in Bangladesh and in most other areas in Asia are relatively tall, weak-stemmed plants. When additional units of nitrogen are applied, heavier heads cause the plants to fall down or lodge. For this reason, farmers could only use very limited quantities of fertilizer thus limiting potential geld improvements and inhibiting risk-taking. The end result has been that cultivation technology used on traditional varieties remained largely unchanged for decades if not centuries. Thus, increased rice output in Bangladesh remained dependent on major modification in the crop environment through water control, i.e. irrigation and drainage to permit increased cropping intensities and/or a shift from broadcasting to transplanting techniques. Where proper incentives existed, increased plant population densities, better cultural practices (such as more careful weeding) and some fertilizer applications did accompany improved water control. However, progress was slow and highly localized. - 12 -

2.34 A number of new varieties of rice seed have been produced by the Interna-tional Rice Research Tnstit+ut-e in the Philippines whi4ch, under the U....JflflJ. tAC - ~~~~~~~~ *W.O .OL U.LL .L*~~~~~~~O~~..J.LI..L L~~~~~~ .LLfl LLt~~~~ 2. LLLXLpyLLU~~~~~~O-LU WJIXL.IUIL~ L UHUCI appropriate circumstances, permits dramatic increases in crop yields. ThLue4r introduction in Bangladlesh has_ or.ly benreaivl ecrt n,hl .LIL~.L .L JU.LJI%A UJJ~i L U ~LL [Lda ULI±Ly UCULL £ _LLaL.LVt_±.y Lf_-;tIiL cdIUL, WLIIJL" acreages so sown are increasing, much remains to be achieved to bring them iLLLt graLLJ. use. TLLI Lr.eW VCLLretie UoJpLL up enLoULLUU.u proLucLionI pUbb±UiliLti5, but they are definitely not "miraculous". They do require difficult adjust- ments in institutions andU cu.LturaL practices fLor 'Large enefLiLts to ue reaped. In particular, pest control, weed control, better land preparation, more eLectiLve irrigation practices, right timing in transplanting, proper plant population per acre, and appropriate use of fertilizers, have become limiting factors to production under tne new tecnnology. This implies a heavy burden on research, extension and education services.

2.35 No dramatic breakthroughs have yet been achieved in production technology for crops other than rice or for livestock. In the short and medium run, improvements in production have to be achieved by all-around improvements in practices. Yet, even on this basis, it should be possible to achieve substantial yield improvements and production increases for the other crucially important crop, jute, and also for crops such as groundnuts and wheat.

2.36 The complete lack of improved technology is the reason that the production of pulse crops -- the most important source of protein -- has not expanded. The importance of the crop from the standpoint of balanced nutrition warrants a major research program.

2.37 While average yield of tea is low -- 670 lbs. per acre compared with 1,000 lbs. per acre in India -- yield levels are as high as 1,000 lbs. per acre on well-managed estates. Technology developed largely at the Tea Research Stations at Srimangal accounts for the higher yields of well- managed estates. - 13 -

CHAPTER IIT. A PROGRAM FOR DISCUSSION

The Strategy

3.01 AsThp StnArv confirms that the imneratives of a ranid growth in production, utilizing such labor-intensive methods as will promote rural amnlr-mavn.t AntirAdevel nmantj-en+. lI qmnhas4.q on: (a) hich-yve.1ti4rn' sAAteq production and distribution; (b) inputs packages comprising seeds, fer+-ilizer,a l+.w+ 'iMn.tprr'Ad4 rly'aft %A14mAl nre;A,- (c-) lnw-Ilift pump irrigation and small drainage improvements; (d) minor to medium-size tinage works; and (e) +.nhatwll irr4gwiA+Aeo Andi Aroh1b pumpning. WMhile projects comprising these foregoing elements would be successively implemented Am-ving +.h. arli4wr phasesaa nf +h.h nroe,,nY. eariyh 4.veswcI+A-a+An-n wonrldi ha YnnAa of increasingly more difficult drainage works including poldering in deeply flooded areas for flood protection and irri gated agricult,re. s, one quicker yielding projects begin to be implemented and as experience with pionoeef protectir&on projec4s, su as at4 Chandpa,r is gan4d, nal an -n4 and implementation of more major projects can proceed in an appropriate

A3.0 Mhis 4tre- h.as b A-4 sAe-- 4to fit-&4e rea'iti--es of the. Bangladesh situation in the following ways:

(a) Dissemination of the majority of the established seed va--.L~eties~ IrLUII ±a-1U.1- UV Ia1,-e,-J IS ri os'1 effectIive way at an early stage to inject the new technology in ngladesh.-Jdcos oain of comlete Jinputs 0N41sg.2t O_ U*dULA AUU" ius "LctVI VUI1 cUVIlL X w LJpUU packages and of irrigation investments provides a fie-Xble approach dra-wing selectively upon most enterprising, willing participants to join together for low- lift pump, tubewell or minor local drainage improvements thus helping to spread the new technology through demonstration effects.

(b) Tne direct employment benefits, with its immediate impact on rural development, are more widely distributed and more rapidly obtained with local infrastructure works than with major capital intensive works.

(c) Emphasis on small individual investment units (such as pumps and tubewells) facilitates construction and management problems in contrast to major projects which tend to lock up considerable investments over necessarily long gestation periods.

(d) Decentralization of development activity facilitates grassroots participation in rural development and thereby minimizes demands on the machinery of public administration.

(e) The postulated program could be one of the least-cost efforts to increase agricultural production -- a consideration of overriding importance given the shortage of capital funds. - 14 -

The Sample Program

3.03 On one basis of the above strategy, the Study performs a 30-year programming exercise within which a detailed program for the first ten years is eaborrated, giving both capital and recurrent costs. The contenT of this particular program is implicit in the production goals as postulated, the 'Xv a'ter ha-LiLrUg takenU .LL acucuviv U wuh anUU esIL bI oV-.a 4JUL Coun IralanIu and the calculated returns on various alternative investments. The Study -nderlines a+1 w.h4±le the analysis------n1. a4ge4s- - t-e produc 40r objectives, other policy objectives will have to be taken into account and +hace will mndiify7 +.e -nwrn. fin llyW adte-dA.

3.0h ThA maionr nt. ATAmpntnt ineltluding rpAirrpntr t t-nq..q) fnr he f4rs+. ten years of the selected "sample" program as calculated in the Study are summarized below. Notional annual figures annear on nages 15 - 18.

------(US$ million)------1973-78 1978-83 Ten-Year Total Total FE Total FE Total FE

Rural Infrastrueture 208 9 283 15 492 23

Inputs

Seeds 18 7 11 4 29 11 Fertilizer 212 93 h66 210 679 303 Plant Protection 81 72 284 265 365 337

Wlater Major Projects 138 68 174 81 312 49 Project Preparation 27 19 74 9 40 28 Low-Lift Pumps 68 46 99 56 168 104 Tubewells 88 57 134 83 222 140 Multi-purpose Projects 183 51 246 61 429 112 Rural Infrastructure-Water 77 16 93 17 170 33

Supporting Services

Cred"' LU7 -_24 - 4°3 - Agriculture Extension 74 24 112 31 186 55

-"1L'~I.T-.tergra 5± O 4edU R-la"tUJ.1 L %."L ~edit4'AL. U C4-.J.43 1611-1 ---*~ '-424~ -'-2'4154, 40+4" Research and Training 53 21 82 32 135 53

Pre-Investment Studies 39 28 31 23 71 51

TOTAL 1,480 527 2,372 906 3.852 143h 8ANGIADESiO- SECIl)R STUDY

COST FORECAST OF MAIN PRO(Alt9, 173-983

(US. Milli-o)

Year 1 Yealr 2 Year 3 Year 4 Yoar 5 Year 1- YY 6 `ar 7 Year S YTer 9 Year 10 Year 6-10 Year 1-10 Total F.E. Total F.E. Total F.E. Tolal F.E,. Total P.E. TotaI E.E- Total F.E. Total F.E. Total F.E. Total P.E. Total _.E. Total F. Total F.E.

1. FABN INPUTS PROGRAY1

1. SF110

a. Slod Pradaetioo, Froce..ig, Cortifictito llice aod Wheat 2.5 1.8 2.8 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.0 1.t 0.2 0.3 7.0 6.4 0.4 0.4 - 0.6 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.4 31.9 2.5 11.7 8.9 doute 0.4 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.1 0).4 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.6 0.6 2.5 0.4 - 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.1 - 0.1 3.7 1.0 6.3 1.6 b. Slod Diatribtiort lice, Wheat rnd Jute 1.2 - 1.3 - 1.5 - 1.6 - 1.6 - 7.2 - 1.7 - 2.0 ------3.7 - 10.9 - T.Toal1 Seed Developooct lUpendittree 4.1 2.0 4.9 1.9 3.8 1.7 3.O 1 S. 2.2 0.4 17.6 7.0 2.6 0.8 2.0t 0.8 1.6 0.8 1.6 0.6 1.5 0.5 11.3 3.5 28.S 10.5

2. FERTILIZERS

. etilier Factory - - - - - b. Annual Procrrfe.eta 17.5 9.2 18.1 11.5 23.7 14.9 29.8 18.E 36.7 23.8 122.9 78.1 46.0 28.2 51.8E 32.6 59.1 37.3 66.4 41.9 64.6 46.3 283.9 186.3 410.B 264.4 c. Storago end Diatributico 12.2 2.4 13.9 2.4 17.8 3.0 21.0 3.3 24.5 3.8 89.5 14.9 27.8 3.9 32.4 4.6 35.5 4.7 40.4 5.4 42.7 5.3 17E.0 23.9 268.3 38.8 d. Toital FertS lizer Ikveloptent Eapendit-ree 26.80 11.5 32.1 13.8 41.5 17.9 50.8 22.1 61.2 27.6 212,4 93.0 73.8 32.0 84.,2 37.2 94.6 42.0 106.8 47.3 107.3 51.6 466.7 210.2 679.1 303.1

3. PLANT ]'ROTECTIC'N

a. Procoroeoeal 1.3 1.3 3.9 3.9 7.8 7.8 12.2 12.2 17.4 17.4 42,.6 42.6 22.6 22.6 27.0 27.8 33.0 33.0 38.2 38.2 43.5 43.5 165.1 165.1 207.7 207.7 b. For .latio., Repackiogi S;torage, Ofatriibtitee 2.2 1.4 3.6 2.7 6.5 5.2 9.2 7.1 12.6 10.5 34.2 27.3 18.7 13.8 10.S 16.2 21.8 18.8 23.7 22.4 28.8 25.2 113.9 95.6 148.1 122.9 c. AerIal Applic-tioo Loit 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 4.6 3.1 1.2 0.7 0.1' 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 4.8 3.7 9.4 6.8

Total PFlet Prp ectioa Dovolopoent Eapoadit-.rea' 4.3 3.2 8.2 7.1 15.3 13.8 22.5 -20.4 31.0 28.5 81.4 73.0 42.3 36.3 47.6 44.7 55.8 52.6 64.9 61.4 73.2 69.4 283.8 264.4 365.2 337.4

Total 1-3 35.2 16.7 45.2 22.8 60.6 33.4 76.3 43.6 94.4 56.5 311.7 173.0 118.7 69.1 133.0 82.7 152.0 95.3 173.3 109.3 182.0 121.3 759.1 477.9 1070.5 650.9

11. ASGEICULTUYALCB8DT1

CaPital Loading Reqairoooot 52.5 - 62.0 - 76.7 - 9:1.5 - 112.4 - 397.1 - 132.4 - 151.3 - 173.3 - 190.1 - 210.1 - 857.2 - 1254.3 - 36.6 - 31.9 - 53.7 - 65.4 - 78.7 - 266.5 - 97.9 - 118.0 - 142.1 - 163.5 - 189.1 - 71C.6 - 977.1 Loan Recov-ry 2 6 Fr-eh Capital RequireRent 13.7 - .1 - 35.7 - 42.9 - 50g - 169.0 - 52.4 - 50.2 - 51.3 - 41.4 - 39.0 - 234.3 - 403.3

1/ Fo-eig. -,nhag. -equitreenta ocy enceod the total plant proltctton dovelop.ent eopoditOtre. Revenue redoce. the total coat to the Goverorot, bht beca-ee revenue ia local cIirroecy, it do.. rot affe:t foreign -.change r-qoi-rnta. To tal Total Total Year 1 Year 2 ~~~~~~Year1 Yea 4 Yea ea-5 I Yer6 Year 7 Tec0Ya er10 Year 6-10 Year 1-10 TotalP.R TarotI P. E. Total . Tot aL PRP.PE....rTota o PE Tart .R otl t Total F. E. Tota'l PF.E. Toaly .. Ttl P.. Ttl PO

11.AGI6COTTO0L S21TIO26TSIOI SERVIC-ES

1. AIIRICULTURAI. EKTPNS10IO4

T.Pap-arg Trot oR OorI-oa of lolatlog Staff 2.5 1.3 5. 1.0 7.8 2.1 8.9 2.8 7.7 2.4 32.7 10.4 4.2 1,0 4.2 1.0 4.2 1.0 4,2 1.0 4.2 1.0 21,0 1.0 53.7 15.4

Progrm. 0.8.g 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.2 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 -4.0 1.0 8.0 2.0 C-oaarolorIf Areas P-1 00c 2.2 1.0 4.3 1.2 6.2 2.3 9.5 3.2 15.2 5.2 237.4 13.9 17.0 5.6 15.9 5.3 14.0 3.5 12.2 3.0 12.0 5.1 12.4 20.5 109.8 22.4 0 Addi0t6..0l Staff ------0.4 0.2 3.3 1.0 5.0 1.0 3.4 1.0 2.4 0.6 14.5 4.6 14.2 4.6

TOTAL 2.5 2.5 10,9 3.2 14.8 4.6 19.2 6.2 23.7 7.0 74.1 24.3 22.4 7.0 24.2 7.5 24.0 6.5 21.1 5.2 20.2 4.0 111.9 31.1 186.0 25.4

2. CREDIT COOPERATIVES (INTPOOAT83IRURAL

CapitaldeR It- topcat Coat 3.2 1.3 4.0 1.0 9.0 2.6 14.4 3.0 23.3 6.2 34.2 15.0 20.3 7.0 30.0 6.1 37.5 4.2 20.2 5.3 20.3 5.3 154.5 23.9 200.7 39.7 baa It-taeo Revooa 0.4 - 1.2 - 2. . 3.2 - 42 - 11.0 -. 5. - 70 - .0- 10.3 - 12.1 - 45.8' - 54.0 - Oat Tovoatarat ~3.11.3 2.8 1.9 7.00 2.6 11.2 3. 19.1 6.2 43.2 15. 2'3.7 7.0 23.09 6.1 28'.7 4.2 10.2 3,3 16.2 3.5 110.7 23,9 153.9 50.7 3. RURAL INPRAITRUCOl

(a) Miter Roada and

ailtdtige 33.8 1.7 33.0 1.7 33.0 1.7 33.8 1.7 33.8 1.7 169.0 8.5 45.6 2.6 45.6 2.6 45.6 2.6 45.6 1.6 45-6 1.7 220.0 13.0 597.9 1.9.4 (55 Mino coog 6.5 0.3 7.2 0.2 7.0 0.3 6.2 0.2 9.1 0.3 39.1 1.3 9.8 0.3 10.4 0.3 11.1 0.4 11.7 0.4 12.4 0.4 55.4 1.8 94.5 2.1

TOTEAL 40.3 1.9 61.0 1.9 41,6 2.0 42.2 2.0 42.9 2.0 208.1 9,8 55.4 2.9 56.0 2.9 55.7 3.0 56.3 2.0 58.0 1.9 203.4 14.8 492.4 22-

4. AGRICLTA. EWSCATIO?l

(a)1.tesoloo T-airtog It- eriroroo ~~~2.00.5 2.2 0.5 2.4 0.6 2.6 0.6 3.0 0.6 13.4 2.8 1.6 0.2 .1.6 0.2 1.6 0.2 1.6 0.3 1.6 0.2 8.0 1.0 20.4 3.8 (b) Udatftlto TraiineE Centore 0.3 0.1 1.1 0.3 2.1 8.7 3.5 1.1 5.2 1.5 12.2 3.7 6.6 1.9 7.2 2.0 6.8 1.8 2.7 0.5 2.7 0.5 20.0 6,7 59.2 10.4

TOTAL 2.3 0.6 3.3 0.8 4.5 1.3 6.3 1.7 8.2 2.1 24.6 6.5 8.2 2.1 0.6 2.7 8.4 2.0 4.3 0.7 4.3 0.7 34.0 7.7 50.6 14.2

5. AOOTC11TU0AILRURARC!O

(a) RIcc R-ao-h 1.3 0.7 1.5 0.7 1.3 0.7 1.3 0.7 1.3 0.7 6.5 3.5 1.3 0.7 1.3 0.7 1.3 0.7 1.3 0.7 1.4 0.7 6.6 3.5 13.1 7.0 (6) 3000 Researh 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.6 1.7 0.6 1.0 0.9 5.9 2.9 2,0 1.0 1.9 0.9 1.7 0.8 1,3 0.7 1.4 0.7 8.3 0.1 14.2 7.0 (t) Agci-laulol

Iae 7l: 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 1.5 0.7 3.1 1.0 2.3 1.5 7.2 3.4 2.4 1.2 2.5 1.2 2.6 1.3 2.1 1.0 2.1 1.0 11.7 5.7 18.9 9.1 (d) Other Crop Re.-eeh 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.3 1.3 0.6 3.1 1.5 1.5 0.8 2.1 1.1 2.5 1.2 1.5 0.7 1.7 0.8 9.7 4.6 12.4 6.1 (a) Lillatok Re 004 0,2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 1.8 0.9 0.9 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.4 4.4 2.2 6.2 5.1 (f) Pthot110 Reacarh 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.3 0.8 0.0 0.4 .0.6 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 2.9 1,5 4.4 2.3 (g) E.-Ial ard GOAGera Reosartl, 0.2 8.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 2.3 1.2 0.9 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.4 4.3 2.i 6.6 3.-

TOTAL 2.9 1.5 4.2 2.1 5.6 2.6 7.0 3.5 0.6 4.3 28.3 14.2 9.8 4.9 10.4 5.2 11.1 5.5 7.8 3.9 8.4 4.2 47.3 23.7 75.8 37.9

T'OTAL 1-5 54.1 7.0 62.7 9.9 73.5 13.3 86.0 17.2 102.5 22.4 378.3 70.6 119.3 23.9 123.3 23.9 127.9 21.2 107.7 13.1 107.1 15.0 507.5 101.2 966.7 109.7 BANGLADE1N WArER PROGRLAMSUMN8A&L(f!A?

3-YerTotal Year 1 Year 2 Yea 3 Yea Ya 5 Tota Yer Ya 7 Year S Year Year 10 Year 1-10 TotalTotal P.O. P.O. Total 0.0. Total 8~~~~~~~.0E.Totl .E. toalrotal tal. E.. Total7 7.E. Total F.E. Total F.O. Toa F.E. Total P.E.

IV. WATERPROGRAM

1. PROJECT PREPIARATIONSt FINAL ENGINEERING

a. Coastal NAbsakets 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.0 4.9 4.1 0.5 0.3 ------5.4 4.4 4.GaoeeOosdK. Kutia UitO 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 ------0.6 0.4 ------0.6 0.4 a. PRasalarleal I ~~~~ ~~~~2.11.9 2.0 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.6 1., 1.4 01.9 9.0 6.4 ------9.0 6.4 d. Gomll1a-Noakhall/Little FetE 3.0 2.0 3.0 2.0 2.3 1.4 2.0 1. 1. I. 12.3 .9 - . ------12.3 7.9 a. Bel1korhl ------. - -2.0 L.5 2. 13 f. Sloo- Northb , - - 4.0 ~2. 6 4.0O 26 g. Lklhye Heghocs - -20 13 20 1.2 4.0 2.5 h. Pabee------2.0 15 2.0 1.5 i. K-rof`l -ILL - - - - - 0.3 '3.3 0.3 0. 3 J. Mh-ior 0.5 '2.3 0.3 0. 3

TOTA]. 6.0 4.2 6.4 4.6 5.1 3.5 4.0 3.5 4.3 3. 0 Z6.8 10I.8 0.5 0.3 2.0 [.3 11.0 7.4 40.3 27.0

2. ifAIRAGE 4 IIULTIPORPIO0EPROJECT CONSITRUCTION

Total CaaetrrtOoa 2:2.8 6.6 24.0 10.0 29.2 0.0 20.9 8.8 M7. 9.4 1-41.9 42'.6 23.0 F.2 23.0 7.2 23.8 7.2 23.0 7.2 23.0 2.2 260.9 70.6

Total Reourret Cost 1.5 0.3 4.2 0.9 7.9 1.6 11.9 2.4 15.9 2.2 41.9 0.4 19.3 31.8 22.7 4.4 25.5 5.2 28.4 5.7 31.0 6.2 160.8 33.2

Grad TotalI, YItiti- purpose Projerts 24.3 6.9 30~~~~.1.710.9 317.1 10.4 40.6 11.2 42.9 11.6 163.6 51.0 43.1 11.0 46.5 11.6 49.3 11.4 52.2 12.9 54.0 13.4 42. 122

3. TOREWEL.LIECRIGATION PROGRAM

CaP1tal Outlay 7. 4.7 1.4.2 9.4 10.9 12.6 21.2 14.2 71.2 14.2 82.6 55.1 21.2 142 21.2 14.2 21.2 1,21.2 21.2 11.2 21.2 14.2 IL00.6 126.1 Rerorret Casts 0.1, 0 .4 .2 .9 .4 1.5 .6 2.4 ('. 9 5.3 21.1 3.4 1.41 4.5 1.0 5.6 5.3 6.0 2.0 0.1 3.3 33.2 13.7 S113TOTLAL 7.2 4.7 1.4.6 9.6 19.8 13.0 22.7 14.0 73.6 11. 1 67.9 21 .2 24.6 12. 6 25.7 14.0 26.8 10.5 28.0 17.0 29.3 17.5 222.3 139.0

4. LWILIPT PUMPS

Capital Ootlay 10.9 8.1 10.9 8. 1110.9 10.L 8. 9.5 7.1 13.1 41.5 9.5 7. 1 9.5 7.1 9.5 7.1 9.3 7.1 9.5 2.1 100. 6 73.0 Rerorret Coats 0.7 0.3 17 0. . 1.2 4.49 1.7 5.8 2.3 12.6 6,.2 7.2 2.9 8.7 1.5 10.2 4.1 11.9 4.7 13.5 5.4 67.1 26.0

SUBTOTAL 11.6 8.4 12.6 8.8 13.9 9.5 45. 3 9.0 15.3 0.4 68.7 42. 7 16.7 10.0 10.2 103.6 19.7 11.2 21.4 11.8 23.0 12.5 467.7 IC3.8

s. 18A.r0RPROJEC1 2 A. Irrioatto ooret

Capital Outlay 15.6 9.0 1.5.6 9.0 15.6 9.0 15.6 9.0 18. C109 81.0 47.0 10.1 10 .9 108 10L.9 10.8 15.9 10.0 10.9 10. 10.9 175.0 101.5 Recorreat toots .2 .1 .5 .3 .9 ~~~ ~13 ~~~~57 1.7.1. . 2.2 .2 12. 1 .5 3.6 1.0 4.0 2.1 4. 2.4 21.0 11.5

SUBTOITAL. 15.0 9.1 1.6.1 9.3 16. 5 9.5 46.9 5.7 11.5 11.8 85.0 40.4 21.0 12. 1 21.6 17.4 22.4 12.7 22.8 13.0 23.4 13.3 196.8 113.0

F lead Carrel -od frai-Rf

CapItol Outlay 8.9 3.5 8. 3.5 8.9 3.5 89 3.5 0.8 2.9 4.4.4 16.9 0.0 2. 9 0.9 2.9 8.0 2.9 0.8 2.9 0.8 2.9 00.4 11.4 Roa-eret Cte 0.5 0.1 1.09 0.2 1.5 0.2 '2. 0 0.3 2.4 ['.4 7.4 1.2 2.9 0.5 3.4 02.1 3.0 2.6 4.3 0.6 4.8 0.7 26.6 4.1

SUBITALM 9.4 3.6 9.9 3.7 10.4 3.7 40.9 3.8 11.2 11.3 51.0 10l.1 11.7 3.4 12.2 0.4 12.6 3.5 13.1 3.5 13.6 3.6 115.0 25.5

6. RUPLL INFRASTRUCTREOl- WATER

a. -istsalPatoakhalli 5.0 0.9 5.0 0.9 5.0 0.9 5.0 0.9 5.0 0.9 25.0 4. 5 6.0 4. 0 6.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 55.0 9.5 A. CoaillafRokhal..1.7 24 071.2.4 . 0.7 2.4 O. 7 12.0 32.5 2.9 0.8 2.9 0.0a 2.9 2.68 2.9 0.8 2.9 0.8 26.5 7.5 o. Goa-Ooetlou-htil 6.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 6.0 10 6.0 1.0 6.0 1'.0 30.0 1.0 7.2 1.0O 7.2 1.0 7.2 1.0 7.2 1.0 7.2 1.0 64.0 10.0 d. Brabna-ur 0.B. 2.0 0.5 2.0 0.5 2.0 0.5 2.0 0.5 2.0 0.5 10.0 2.5 2.4 0.6 2.4 0.6 2.4 2.6 2.4 0.6 2.4 0.6 22.0 5.5

SUBTO'TAL 13.4 3.1 15.4 3.1 135.4 3.1 15.4 3.1 15.4 2.1 77.0 11. 5 10.5 31.4 10.5 1.4 18.3 5.4 16.5 3.4 18.5 3.4 159.5 32.5

GRANDTOTAL WATERP000RA14 89.7 40.0 113.7 30.0 1108.2 52.3 126.0 55.9 133.4 51.3 501.8 253.7 136.1 55. 8 144.7 510.7 160.3 67.1 156.0 61.6 1L62.6 63.7 1:142.3 542.6

1/US$1.00-Th90 2/ThEe dee. nto-lodeo RoiteI oother 0.W. Raglet Proj.tt where irrigotios will be by sogIe or oIltiple us f low-lift peep.. Total Tate! Total Year 1 Year 2 Yea 3 Year 4 Year 3 Yea 1-5 Year 6 Yea 7 Year 6 Year 9 Year 10 Year 6-10 flare 1-IC Total F.E. Total Fe.E. Total P.E. Total F.E. Ta0tal FPm1. Total FP.EO. Teta.1 FOE. Total F.1E. ToDtalFP2 Total P.E. Total P..ooalT.. FE. Total F2.E

Jr. STUDIES. SUJRVEYSANE INVESTIrkTIONO

1. SPVECIALPURPOSE STUDIES

a.) loil Sorvey 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 - - - - (.5 0.3 … ……… ……0.3 0.3 (b) 1'lood Fioherieo 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.3 1.0 0.6 1.3 0.8 1.3 0.6 0.43 2.6 0.7 0.4 - -- -- 0.7 0.4 5.0 3.0 (a ASrl_oltr., Eoo0oeir-- 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 O'.2 (. 0.5 0.2 0.1 … …… ……0.2 0.1 1.0 0.6 (d) ioalootry 01 01 .1 .1 .2 .2 - - - - .4 0.4 -- - - 0.4 0.4 le) Satfate Water Hydrology -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 2.1 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 2.6 2.1 4.7 3.6 f)) G-- t-h-~~~~~~~~~~~~~ - ~~~0.1- 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 - - - - 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.6 (o '...... 0.1 0.1I 0.1 -- 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 (h) Rive Mophology &Sedaoeotelogy - - 0.1 - 0.2 0.1 0.2 0. - - (. 03----- 0.5 0.3 (0) C-st-rti-o Mot-irlal 0. 1 0 021 0 02 0 012 0.1 - - C07 0.4 0. . . .1 0.2 0.1 - 0.6 0.3 1.3 0.7 j) -tar1a 14ppIng 0.2 0:1 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.41 0.7 5.4 1.0 1.6. ------3.0 0.6

Total 0.6 0.6 2.4 1.4 3.2 1.9 3.1 2.0 2.6 1.9 12.3 7.8 1.6 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 5.1 3.6 1.7.4 11.4

2. ISLAINAGE.FLOOD CONTROLAND WATERSUPPLY INVESTIGATIONS AND)ROLATED ETlEIRIIE

a)Soot:h..et Rrgi- 0.1 0.1 1.0 0.7 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.0O 5.3 4.4'…15.3 4.0 cb) Northeas.t Regtoi 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.6 1. .0 10 0. .0 2.0 1.1 0. 1 I 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 5.7 4.3 9.7 7.2 a)Sootheast ORgies 0. 0.1 E.7 0.5 11 0. 1. 0. 10 0. 710 3.I. 01 12 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.9 4.7 3.7 7.7 6.7 (d) 00.6100Norlhvoet ~~~~ ~~~~0.1 ~~~0.10.7 0.5 1.1 0.6 1.1 06 1.0 0. 5.1 3.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 - - 1. 07 61 37 (.Mdeo .1tlhwost Neglos 0. 0.1 0. .6 3 0.9 1I3 0.9 1.2 0.9 4.3 3. 4 .. 4 05 0.4 05 0.3 05 0.3 20 1.4 6. 46 (f0) Floo d.Model 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 6.3 2.7 1.91 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 3.7 2.7 7.4 4.6 (gage/rheoor/B-heMow o ------0. 0.1 0.5 0.4 i1. 0.6 1.2 0.6 1.2 0.9 4.2 3. 42 30

Total 0.7 0.6 4.4 3.2 6.6 4.6 6.7 4.9 6.3 4.7 24.6 l6.2! 2.3 1.7 4.4 3.3 5.1 3.6 3.5 3.6 4.3 3.4 21.3 15.6 46.6 34.0

3. !COMPREHENSIVESr1)0Y

()Floo'd Cootro;l, Oraiege, Agrli-ltore a-d Load Use Pla-ig aed Related Ero.oodo 1o1oiog 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 6.4 0.3 1.4 0.9~ 0.4 6.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.9 1.4 3.3 2.3 (b) PZM _11. - - ~~~~~~~~0.1 ~~~~~~~~~~~0.10.2 0.2 - - - - 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

(a) Floo'd Co-oltiog Pac)-l- . - - - - . .1 0.1 - - 6.0 0.1 - 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 (d) Other 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 6.2 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 2.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.6 1.6 2,7 2.3

Total 0.3 6.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 3. 3 1.0 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 4.3 3.6 6.6 5.4

GRNAW) TOTAL, ETUDIES 1.6 1.4 7.2 4.9 10.3 7.0 10.3 7.3 9.7, 7.1 39.4 27.7 4. 9 3.3 6.5 4.6 7.4 3.7 6.3 4.6 5.5 4.4 30.7 23.6 710.6 50.6

VI. SUMMSARY

ALL PROIXIlIS:

it. AGRICULTURAL IKPMSY. 33.2 16.7 45.3 22.6 60.6 33.4 76.3 43.6 94.4 56.3 311.7 173.0 116.7 69.1 133.8 62.7 152.0 95.3 173 3 109.3 102.0 121.5 759.1 477.9 1070.5 650.9 II. AG1IO1CULTURaS.CREDIT! 13.7 - 26.1 - 35.7 - 42.9 - 50.3 . 169.0 - 32. 4 - 50.2 - 31.3 - 41.4 - 39.0 - 234.3 - 403.3 - III. AGROICULTURAL.SUPPORLT SERVICES 54.1 7.6 62. 2 9.9 73.5 13.3 66.0 17.2 102.3 26.4 370.3 70.6 119.1 23.9 123.3 23.9 127.9 21.2 107.7131 071 5. 365102 967'6.7a IV. WATER PROGRAM 69.7 40.0 113.7 50.0 1,16.2 52.5 126.6 53.9 133.4 57.3 361.6 253.7' 136.1 33.6 1447 3.7 160307.1 05. 6. 6266.7 5739. 306.9 1341.3 582.6 V. SYDJDIPS, SOYRVOYS,INVESTIGATIONS 1.6 1.4 7.2 4.9 10.3 7.0 10.3 7.3 9.7 7.1 39.4 27.7 4.1 3.5 6.5 4.6 7.4 5.7 6.3 4.6 5.5 4.4 30. 23.0 70.6 50.6

TOTAl. 194.5 53.9 254.4 67.6 296.3 106.2 342.3 124.0 390.5 140.3 1460.2 327.0 431.6 152.3 456.5 170.1 496.9 169.3 464.2 190.6 496.2 204.6 2372.3 906. 9 3652.4 1434.0 3-°5 The sample program would achieve the following results: (a) An increase in rice production of possibly 25% by 1978 from 11.5 million tons to 14.5 million tons and 18.8 million tons by 1963. Self-sufficiency in rice would not be attained until 1983. If, as is. likely, this date weAre rWA=rdAd by pnolcymakers as unaccentablv remote. the program would have to be modified accordingly. (b) The total additional area irrigated by low-lift purnps would be 1.1 million acres by 1978 and a further additional 0.8 million acres by 1983. The numbers of additional 2-cusec units sited would be ahout 22;000 by 1978 and about 13,000 between 1978 and 1983.

(c) The area irrigated by tubewells would increase by nearly 31l,0OM acreso by-1078 andr byi a furthe 800,00 acre Iby -- -* ." I' _ t4- 1903. The numbers of additional well units installed v-,^oul b'neal 5,3-C~00 by 1978 -an 11 ,500 between 1Q978 and 1983.

(d) The construction of two new multi-purpose projects

Voak1zC]J..Ljit F1'en.L andl BarLs ') Und.ULrther development of two existing projects (Ganges-Kobadak and n'L . _. --- i- _X _ n. v__^Q, n _ - - - _- _ _ .__,_ ____, 1anUd-pUUr-J WUul by 8I3u U-lrlg fLoUoU pr'oUtCUton adU improved drainage to 1.7 nillion acres and irrigation to 90u,000 acres.

(e) Pianning and preparation in the form of substantial data- gathering and evaluation would be advanced for further development and to expand the area irrigated and protected from floods. (f) The planning and implementation capacity of Government agencies would have been developed to provide for continuing growth in ths activities in the sector, while research programs wxould have ensured a continuing improvement in agricultural yields.

Macro-Economic Consistency

3.o6 The agricultural sector, accounting for over half of the GDP today, will continue to play a dominant role in the econonmy of Bangladesh for Years to come. Therefore, it must be assured that any program oosa is feasible and consistent with development demands of other sectors, and with macro-economic factors conditioning erowth such as domestic caDital mobilization, foreign exchange availability and institution-building to overcome the implementation constraints. - 20 -

3.n« n +heabsrcAfu-odteV. [eibep" g Udata, a tent1aL,tlve macro-economic model has been developed for Bangladesh to test the implications of specific agricultural strategies sudied. The macro-economic model relates key variables such as per capita income, employment, and financial resources with other variables, including factors affecting capital formation such as tax rates and consumption functions, capital output and depre- c,ation rates. hne model can be "driven" by difIerent variables such as per capita income, foreign aid and employment. In the Study, the driving force used is the growth of the agriculture sector time-pnased value added. Crop- ping patterns (in conjunction with implementation constraints on flood con- tvrol, irrigation, drainage and inputs options) determine agricultural production levels. By converting physical production into value of production, and subtracting the value of purchases by agriculture from other sectors, the agricultural value added component of the GDP results.

3.08 According to the "sample" program tested by the Study, agricultural production would grow by an annual average rate of 4.6% during 1973-83 and of 3.9% during 1973-2003. Growth would be greater in the first decade as immediate action would be taken to exploit the unutilized land and water potential of the region by existing technological breakthroughs. The calculations are based on population levels of 74.5, 101.0 and 170.3 million in 1973, 1983 and 2003. respectively; a constant 35% labor force participation during 1978-2003; a 1973 base of US$64 per capita income; and a 30% unemployment rate, relatively constant throughout the period. While the latter figure must be regarded as very high, it is nevertheless implicit in the not inconsiderable growth rates postulated for the economy as a whole and therefore is a measure of the difficult economic problems confronting the Bangladesh Government and people.

3.09 When time-phased growth rates of agricultural value added are supplied to the model, the following indicators can be readily detelmined: GDP growth rate, foreign aid (i.e. investment savings eap), per capita income, employment, investment, sectoral shares of GDP and sectoral growth rates.

3.10 Any change in agriculture produces a larger relative change in other sectors through multiple linkage effects= Acconrding to the macnr-eGonnTm1 model, a thirty-year average agricultural growth rate of 3.9% corresponds to a c GnP growt-th rate anri n 9 1% nper rnncpit inonme grrt.h rnt. Vnriationns in the growth rates of agricultural value added between 3.5% and 4.9% are consistent with G-DP growth rates be+wee i% nnr 7. T7hmus the (CMP growth rate is relatively elastic with respect to agriculture. This leverage effect of agriculture, combined with its size and its potential for jnob creation, confirms the impor-tance which the Study ascribes to land and water. It is the cutting edge of the d porm prvidin t oh rs Success in agricu'lture can generate a viable economy. Conversely, failure in agri-culture wouldA spea t+ other sctors.+ OV%X

3.11 The "sample" sector program outlined in the Study has been constructed with full awareness of its inter-sectoral impacts or lnages. It presupposes that the agricultural program will generate a balanced overall development strategy giving appropriate weignt to other sectors of the economy such as transport, industry, and human resources development. To ensure this consistency, multi-sectoral growth projections have been computeu. These intersectoral results appear plausible in terms of experience from Bangladesh and elsewhere. 3.12 The components of the industrial sector most clearly allied with agriculture are chemical inputs, i.e. fertilizer and pesticides. Since the need for fertilizer and pesticides may be met either by imports or domestic production, the trade-off decision concerning the proper mix of imports and production depends on the results of feasibility studies for the establishment of specific industrial projects. While Bangladesh is likely to have to import much of its chemical inputs requirements in the short run, it has the basic raw material for urea manufacture and should investigate expeditiously the establishment of a modern industrial complex geared to meet all its agricultural requirements for nitrogen. Pesticides formulation, assembly of small pumps, rigs, well screens and casings are smaller but nevertheless important areas for further industrial development.

3.13 Significant requirements also exist for the processing of agricultural products. In the manufacturing sector, jute is the prime example. Rice, tea, shrimp, lumber, fruit and vegetables also require improved and expanded industrial processing. Further processing of agricultural products and increased farm specialization will stimulate the trade sector by requiring more sophisticated wholesale and retail distribution systems.

3.14 Similarly, agriculture will exert a significant demand on the transportation sector as a result of increased trade in agricultural products from areas of relatively high agricultural potential to deficit areas and urban centers. Conveyance of inputs will also place a significant burden on transport with the ten-fold projected increase of fertilizer and pesticides use from 1973 to 2003. In order to operate irrigation. drainage and flood control projects, motor vehicles and vessels will be needed for extension services and maintenance of wells and pumips, apart from the transport requirements imposed bv construction of these facilities. Finally, as per capita incomes gradually rise, the rural population will demand more responsive transportation systems for consumer goods requirements.

"et-tcraslngLy c n y o JuSuiiied as greater density of pumps and tubewells in favorable agricultural areas creates more demands on the utilities sytr ote" --- , po--s-D power ead willinld dOercemands Wilinclude requirements of the manufacturing sector for processing of agricultural goods andr for. s_mall i.ustis - 22 -

3.16 The achiervrement ofa balanced developrment strategy with the outlined agriculture sector development will require investment to cover growth, denreciation and working capital O US$700 ri"n in -73 growing to US$1.3 billion in 1983 and US$2.7 billion by 2003. Although gross investment climbs rapidly, it grows more slowly than the GDP over the thirty-year period, decreasing from 15Z of GDP in 1973 to 13. in 200 3.1 / The frraction of' total investment in agriculture would climb from 18% in 197.3 to 22% in 1983 and 37% in 2003 in spite of agriculture's decreasing share of GDP. This occurs due to the increasing capital output ratio for agriculture, resulting from the need to invest gradually larger amounts in water control= Manuufacturi-g investment remains close to 20% of total investment.

3.17 The investment requirements during 1973-1983 will entail both foreign assistance and a substantially augrmented domestic resources mobilization effort. This will call for improved taxation instruments and a suitable combination of direct and indirect ta-2ation which will maxm ize savings without creating a negative impact on production incentives. In 1950-1960 revenue from taxation in Ba-ngladesh onl-y amou-ted to 14%of' the GDP. Of this anount direct taxes constituted about 1%, while indirect taxes were 3%.

DLamnd ay-d sLp.nLyr IMplicatioQnsl

3.18 Medillmb and. long-term. demand for foodgrains and other essential foods, such as fish, pulses, and oils, will be determined primarily by the size of the population and by income 1eve1S. Foodgrains and pullses are the basic staple foods and their demand is relatively price inelastic. Despite w.ide fluctuatiors in the price of rice over the l5-year per od between 195 and 1970, per capita demand showed a steady increase of about 1% annually. The long-run influence of (deflated) price changes on demand for basin foods is likewise not expected to be significant in the next 10 to 15 years. Demand for foodgrains has been projected under the assumption that the corresnnnding income elasticiS coefficient declines as per capita demand approaches an ul- u.z'.au~ *-usLY ,J -'Un.. a .o.'-4 .5st-ant.'s44~ t:i,ate ce4|1 ng.- DemdPo" other food itemls has been -roiected ngCD-- stn coefficients, since only rough estimates could be obtained for these values as wel' as for presen.t levels of cosmption. The estimates for items other than foodgrains, therefore, provide only broad indications of future demand..

lJ These figures must be contrasted against the historical average Of only about 11% of GDP. To simplify calculations, however, a linear relatianship has been assumed. - 23 -

3.19 Future increase in demand for foodgrains has been estimated using a relatively high coefficient for the initial elasticity of demand. in 1967. For the lnrge portion of the population liv.ing well below subsiseQ+.ne dgmand for foodgrains is expected to increase at a rate nearly that applicable as an average over the whole populnation. The initial ratio was assuem d to be about 0.55. This value falls within the range of estimates made in 1967 by FAO of the income elasticities of dean.d fo fograins in. several co,,+ries. In comparison of over 80 countries where per capita income was less than TTc$100-209 values fell between 0.2 "Ar. o A andn4, ,.,os cases werec trated around. 0.5. Similar values were also determined.by studies completed. in Bargladesh ir.197 an.l968.OA

3.20 Increases in future per capita demand would 'ary according to overall r,vrno&V' growth. Demand empnected under an average rate of development equivalent to a per capita income growth of 1.5% annually is summarized below fr^ majon fo.no 's +aarvres.QC

w~~~~n m " vSm nyi -rn Mn y V nl c +P Ar_iA ___ Demand S'mmary for Manor Food Categories

T>Qr,,q TT,AsQ_ -n4-.A D4-O rNf' Tv,r'rrnmnwnTr Year Population Grain Fish Pulses Oils Sugar Heat

1L9 73 7 4.5_J 133 .7 .6 .1 .Lc 000 , *'- II - 4 -,-- L

1983 101.0~~~~~~~0 18. r.1 -I .o .45 .2e .27 i-993 133. 22. 1.5 1.61 o4.s .4i *4U

2003 170.3 30.5 2.19 2.36 .62 .65 .2

3.21 The estimated demand for foodgrains and corresponding estimates of production over a 30-year period are listed below and shown graphically in Figure IV-1. The foodgrain production is estimated to reach a self-sufficiency level (18.8 million tons) in 1983, followed possibly by marginal surpluses during the subsequent years.

1973 1983 1993 2003

Demand 13.3 18.8 22.2 30.5 Production 11.2 18.8 26.4 32.9

3.22 Production projections are based on the assumption that an inputs, irrigation and drainage program would be implemented gradually over the 30 years in selected areas. Because of the long periods of time necessary for implementation of major drainage and flood control projects during the first 10 years the major portion of the program would consist of inputs and irrigation by individual low-lift pumps and tubewells. - 24i - Pi,- ,wT ALL REGIONS

...... Y

. { .. // ..1~~~~.....

...... ----......

L '/4/- -~~~~~~~~~~~~----- 2~~~~~7.. et of seed-

Pt~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...... _ _.and.wast

20-I

m~~~~~~~. N t o see4~~~~2

t,- .~~~- ...- "....-...... - . .- . .------.- - 1.-.-..-~~~~...... 19018 9020

0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

6l~~~~~~~tft

. ~~ : U1______...... j.j.....j...~~....

(U uu Ut.) yu (U ~~~J >U U1J ...... ~~..(U *-1-

1970 198 OOORAN D1990 &20OUCIO - 25 -

ImOlications for Alternative Approaches

3.23 A major objective of the Agriculture and Water Sector study was to show growth opportunities based on sound assessment of resources since without showing this any discussion of trade-offs with other important oDjectives would. have been academic.

3.24 in the course of worK on the Study, policy formulation emerged as a major determinent of the outcome of the program, but opportunities for consulting witn the Government were absent. Therefore, the outlined. program is designated as a "sample" program.

3.25 Reorientation is crucial to the future outcome of the drainage/ flood. control/irrigation program, one of the most acutely felt development issues in Bangladesh. In particular, the physical layout of the Bangladesh delta requires gradual development similar to that experienced in other deltas such as, the Rhine, Nile, and. various Japanese deltas. However, this approach - provided that regional master plans are prepared. for water control developments - in the long run - enhances rather than reduces opportunities for large-scale programs. This is so because the regional plans can be carried.out by a Rural Works type approach provided that it is backed-up by ad-equate engineering. In fact, works foIlowing such an approach can begin imediately, but master plan preparation should. also start without delay. In the absence of an opportunity to discuss this reorientation need with the Government, it would.have been unreasonable to propose a large water control program for lines of development other than low-lift pumps and tubewells. However, it should.be noted. that the proposed approach lends itself to rapid.expansion since it does not involve any indivisible, "lumpy" investments. Thus, a large program can be fonmu- lated rapidly as extensive studies are carried out. This should be kept clearly in mind-while examining the size of the water developments other than irrigation by low-lift pumps and tubewells, included. in the sample program.

3.26 Experience shows that a self-sustained momentum for improvement of the institutions supporting Bangladesh agriculture is largely lacking. This leads to two major conclusions. First, the farmers' own incentives will need to be utilized to the utmost to reduce the burden of development on administration. A number of policy measures would improve incentives, such as Foods Department's purchasing of rice in surplus areas, Government s providing market outlets for groundnuts, assuring improved farm gate prices for jute, and equalizing the subsidy between various inputs such as small, low-lift pumps (smaller than 1 cusec) and 2 cusec pumps. Second, the limited response to organizational reforms in the past strongly suggests that the organizational reforms contemplated now are going to be productive only if they are backed, up by a strong training program all around. - 26 -

3.27 Finally, the Study has demonstrated that development opportunities are almost unlimited in relation to past performance capacity. Therefore, the bulk of development efforts must be focused on improving implementation canacitv in all pronosed lines of activity.

3.28 The Study algo shows that agriculture can offer onlv an interim solution to the Bangladesh economic dilemma (although this interim period miav have tn be connted in decades rather than vears). Tn the ihnrt-rnn; critical responsibilities of the non-agriculture sector policy are to provide the reqnired mirnnort fnr the aci'i ciltbre sActn.nr in termq of nhvsi cal infrastructure, manpower and institutional developments, and to prepare the ground for trari.nition from. an acie ii1umtre-hase ttn avn indrstry-based eGnnmv. In particular, the education effort should be directed toward making maximum use of +.he agriculturl- poten+ial.

3.29 Onie fiL gual uhuu-u be LAW davetLupment oI manpower and experience for industrial expansion. The key economic policy issue is to recognize that, n mhile auzxeice uf lrge-scale natural reouurces -- other tman lana. -- Iuture econonic development must rely on manpower improvements. Training and education programsj along -with supporting institutions, must be planned accordIngly. The benefits of manpower improvements accrue only slowlyy, while expenditures must be made l3meCiately* CHiAPTER IV

TIEE TECHNICAL APPROACH

Analytic Framework h.ol The main vectors in the sector analysis considered in the Study are: (i) land capability; (ii) hydrological conditions; (iii) cost-benefit analysis of alternative investments; and (iv) implementation constraints. Cumputerized methods have been used to link these vectors and to rank the investment alternatives. Through these steps, a sample land and water sector program, for implementation over three development decades, has been formulated. Production targets and costs have been tested for inter-sectoral consistency within a macroeconomic framework, together with a sensitivity analysis.

4.02 As a complement to the analysis, a series of six large-scale analytical maps of Bangladesh have been prepared from available data and reports. They include: Political Divisions, Population, Hydrology, Transportation, Land Use Associations, Land Development Units (LDU).&I As visual tools, these maps complement work done by the analytic models. By overlay methods, existing land use patterns and land capability as represented by land development units, were associated by hydrologic conditions, the transport network and the present population distribution as well as political subdivisions. Agricultural inputs, irrigation projects and drainage and flood control programs were then related spatially to potential development areas within the regions. From the series of analytical maps, summary maps showing areas of high rice and oilseed production potentials were derived. The transverse Mercator Projection System could now be employed to allow salient data to be computerized and related to specific localities, thanas or even portions of thanas. This could lead to greater standardization of data, making it readily available for future regional studies.

4.03 The Study recognizes the importance of dealing with natural catastrophes which regularly afflict Bangladesh. Water control and cyclone protection will undoubtedly continue to be a focus of Government activity. Although the Study assembles much of the fundamental knowledge concerning water control, it must be emphasized that water control has been included at this stage only as a production input and not on its influence on the quality of life of the people. However, the tools have been developed to measure the economic impact of alternative modes of development so as to facilitate assessment of trade-offs between different policy goals.

1/ Each of the 58 LDU's represents a natural subrezion with distinctive physio- graphic, hydrological and soil characteristics. It contrasts with its neighbors in these characteristics. Since land use and land capability in Banzladesh are strongly determined by these characteristics, each LDU thus produces a distinctive combination of development opportunities and phrsical constraints. The delineation and. description of the LDU's--supplemented by the more detailed hvdroloeical. climatic and socio-economic information--provide a physical basis for agricultural development planning at the indicative level. (See Map 7). 4.o4 The need for more comprehensive study of land and water development remains. River regimes, hydraulic models, regional analyses, farm economics are some of the key areas for further exploration. With the creation of Bangladesh, a new and crucial dimension for analysis has now emerged in the changed relationship with India and. the possibility seems much closer for dealing with the problems of the delta on a regional basis. The solution of exceedingly difficult water control problems may therefore be closer to the realm of economic and engineering feasibility.

Land Capability Analysis '

4.05 The land. capability evaluation has been based on detailed reconnaissance surveys conducted by the UNDP/FAO Soil Survey Project covering 70% of Bangladesh. Sufficient information was obtained for the remainder of the country (through aerial photography interpretation and exploratory surveys) to extrapolate the results of the Survey to the entire area. The Survey provides information not only on soil conditions but also on present land use and on physical factors limiting agricultural development, such as surface relief, drainage, depth and nature of seasonal flooding, erosion hazard., etc. This irformation has been interpreted to determine suitability of soils for production of particular crops, with and without water control. The land classes bave been subdivided into major subclasses differentiating non-flooded land from seasonally flooded land. These major subclasses were further subdivided into ordinary subclasses which indicate the nature of the main factor, if any, which restricts agricultural use of crop yields. The classification considers the land as it is at present and the relative ease or difficulty of overcoming existing limitations, especially by irrigation and drainage. It thus provides a uniform basis for evaluating agric4ltural and water control development possibilities throughout Bangladesh.-/

4.o6 During the first development decade, approximately 7 million acres of farm land., including about one-third of the farm population have, through this analysis, been indicated as suitable, in terms of quick and high returns as areas of concentration to receive a maximum package of inputs and water facilities, complete with supporting infrastructure to intensify crouina patterns. Portions of the prime land are found in 263 of the 420 thanas in the country. In this way, nearly 60% of the administrative machinery in the country would become familiar with the dissemination of the maximum development effort. In the second development decade, it would have a much simpler task to spread the full support facilities to every thana according to individual local needs.

1/ Land Capability Analysis shown on Maps 1 through 6. I/ Table TV-1. - 29 -

4.07 Also during the first development decade. two-thirds of the land not considered, rime territory for increasing agricultural production would, under this hypothesis, receive what has been called a '"minimum" package of inDuts. meaning new high yielding rice varieties, as they become available, beginning with IR-20, and, fertilizer and pesticides for enterprising farmers wishing to use them. However, agricultural support services such as extension and cooperatives vould not be expanded beyond present levels. in contrast to the vastly increased services planned for the prime areas of concentration. Like- wise, the irrigation, flood control, and drainaze facilities will not likely be available prior to the 19 8 0ts.

Investment Return Calculation

4.08 Rate of return calculations were crucial to the decision-making process used in thr formulation of the "sample" program. Actually two separate rate of return exercises were conducted. In order to begin to assess the relative priorities of the princinal aspects of modern agriculture;an initial set of rate of return calculations was perfornTed on various typical land development n]nits and provided the following range of results. The economic return for high yielding seed production and distribution, for examnle. was cal Citl ate to he about 100%-. Innut packages to silunort seed have a return varying from 40-50%. Medium and minor drainage have 80-100% return_ The replirn raloiil -hi n for low-liff. niTmnq are eonsistent with previous analyses--approximately 30-40%. Longer term projects have a lowearr rn+.rrrn F r nm-nlnc fwny Annil -O ninm,ni o f-rnm mAnnr mnri raajor structures range from 7-17% , while tubewells show a rate of return of 11-1i ar.d polders a return of 3-18% TIMe results Trere useful in providing orders of magnitude. They were not, however, used as direct

Sector-Project Anraly9ss

4.09 A second, more spcific invertment return calculation -was emplo-y-d to derive the "sample" investment program which was generated for each of the 58 T.nTTs by th,e sector-project model. The methodolog employed was simple and direct. A 12% discount rate was used to calculate the net present worth of and-projects't all those wit- positive v e were included as acceptable investments to be undertaken in any given LDU. Tak- ing the present cropping patterns as a base, three m--ajor categories or "stages" of development activity were analyzed as "projects" for each LDU: (a) imprrned in.puts (see - - -c-ltur and extension); (b) improved inputs plus irrigation from tubewells ,and lowulift pnm.ps (no flood control/drainage); and, (c) improved inputs pl-us co-mplete water control (full irrigation and drainage). 4.10 Development possibilities in each LDU were evaluated at this stage subject to several specific constraints which were estimated in quantified terms, i.e.: (a) availability of land and irrigation water; (b) capacities for administration, engineering, and training necessary for effective implementation; and, (c) a minimum investment return of 12% on investments (valued in terms of cost to the economy). The irrigation facilities considered for the purposes of this exercise wjre primarily diesel-powered tubewells and low-lift pumps, some of which were assisted by double pumping. Drainage was defined as water removal in the broadcast sense, including prevention of flooding in excess of 20 ft in river levels. The main inputs were expressed in terms of human labor, draft animal power, improved seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, and wiater, and accounted for by assigning unit costs to each of these items. Outputs were expressed in terms of crop yields, and were evaluated in terms of projected world prices for each commodity. Average values of input and output variables were selected for each of the major crops, for successive stages of development.

4.11 The present cropping patterns for each LDU are fundamental to the Study as they reveal the potential for, and constraints on, development. For instance, where a very high proportion of an LDU is currently planted to broadcast aman /. indicating extensive deep floodine. substantial increases in productivity would require major drainage and flood control works. Similarly, current laree areas in transnlanted aman are indicative of widespread shallow flooding, with the promise of major increases in productivity by introduction of imnroved varieties and fertilization. The fractions of the landscape adapted to each crop are taken account of in the data base and, to a significant degrpee it is this which determines regional priorities for development.

4.12 For each LDU, a series of programs was generated which included combinations of the three stages of develonment defined above. These were summarized in the form of : (a) areas planted to each crop; (b) resulting nroduc.tion; and (e) repniirprd innutsj for each TDUI and all m-odes of devlopn- ment. This information may be aggregated to show the production by region, fnr each mond nf devlonpmentj and cnmp2red wirth the rnsts of develonment Ps required for assignment of development priorities.

4.13 The first stage of the analysis took the cropped areas of each LDU. To th)is a-rea, it. app-lied the iiiAmn.en of- thosea writh fieldi P-rnpripepnczas t the maximum possible coverage of inputs package programs, as limited by n rimi ri c trnti vor t-.r-ininc tnno1 r%p"QtnrnpIre.tlri+ nnri 'hnqcPrI rn imnPrnlrp? varieties adoption rates in other countries, at five-year intervals to the year 2003.

414 The second age Ap+,"m-i n" +.theoportiini t-A fo-r i ns+al tion of low-lift pumps, tubewells drainage and flood protection in each LDU according to physical constraint n elndandr rater development.T These results Tere then reduced to reflect likely administrative constraints limiting water development. In addition the "aea of concent_ion"./ strategt limits agricultural development in the early years to specific areas that will vield greatest incremental returns. The areas determined are then the maximul-m incremental development areas for each LDU for the particular planning period

1/ See Glossary. "4,' See paras 5.07-5.o8 boelow. under consideration. Finally, the estimated capital and recurrent costs of the irrigation facilities were converted into present values at a 12% discount rate.

4.15 The third.stage applied.a country-wide constraint to the aggregated t+otl leverl of develoe%7ntr). Tn norder +.n +tec+s nhyircal andl andminist+.r+ative constraints the potential area under drainage or flood, control in each LDU over a five-year period, an UppQm l,wi,t of 250,00 ac t.- was i ±ialnv chn.n as a reasonable lhypothesis. However, as the model showed, this proved not to be a con.trrai.nt on devellopm.ent.

IA.16 Substantially di>ferent levels of produc+ionarev p -le *iAe' the different development activities. The figures below show the potential countrywide rice -1vn-ucon at tbe diAffi-erent stage of An,rle%r,vnnn ncsrn¶ alln 0 .1 F.,J -- A.i.-Ji uj-j a WsL4O .~. ~ I SU t W.L 'S V- -JSSiIA- - 5 possible "projects" beginning with "inputs only" were adopted.

…------…Potential Rice Production2…------

U.LAL Ji / Trputs TnuI-.us plu,s M '1_ .L.LpL.u.Is l - s .I- I. .J..U.W Year Inputs Only Irrigation Irrigation and. Drainage

1983 155.6 26.32 35.31 -1 18.67 r1.raI) 1 7 2003 22.40 37.91 50.84 / Base level of production at 11 m tons (1969/70)

This very wide range of figures on production potential demonstrates the

acu.tle sersL u.LvJVy tU pJaIULUteter cnIeU-rIL.LIJLdt .LUZr c;LitI1Uw.lu6e WIAL%;Ll Ithe and practices are diffused through the agricultural sector, implementation capaciXy and the required rate of return. In. practice, G.overn.Ient performance and farmer acceptance and use of new technology will be the principal deteriants of what levels of o-utp-ut are actually achieved.. Another factor would be the minimum. rate of return applied as a criterion in deciding wnether to proceed with particular agriculture-oriented investments.

4.17 TWhile these are operating on the development process, many constraints are impossible to quantify, while others, though conceptually measurable, would require the construction of a considerably more sophisticated model than has been possible to date. It nas been possible, nonetheless, to test in a limited.way the sensitivity of the proposed.sample program to the three fundamental constrainfts, viz, land, water anad implementation capacity. For example, in the short term, i.e. up to 1980, diffusion of modern agricultural inputs would be a greater constraint than the availaDlity Of irrigated areas or of the inputs themselves. Over the medium term, i.e. up to around 1990, it -would be possible to have more land drained than irrigated, and hence, irrigation would be the binding constraint and would limit development possibilities. n______n, _ __ ,_ - ff- - .I , '.. ... Deimeandu adu supply proJevCtions ImldUe in the Study inaicate that, up to about 1985-1990, short and medium term programs focusing primarily on agricultural inputs, and'A ue-,hca iLnpihISenU.aUon and quick-yielding developments, should enable the achievement of self-sufficient food production. Over the longer term, i.e. be-y-ond 1990, t he binding constraint to ciosing the gap between ever-growing food demand and the medium term level of self-sufficient produc- 4- o Ntwou_ A|1An d ue 4: __ __I _ ..J tio1 nV< oul be t Lid-g level of and flood control that coula oe achieved. (See para 5.32 below.) _-__ As a result of the longer gestation period for major drainage and flood, control projects, the insensitivity, in the shortterm, of output to these constraints and the critical need for food self-sufficiency and rural infrastructure programs, the program fnr 1973-1983 consists largely of inputs and irrigation by individual low-lift numns and tubewells. The nrimarv areas of inputs package programs are those in which it is possible to switch from local to improved varieties of transpl2nted aman: the emnhasis in water development is on tubewells in the nortrwest and low-lift pumps in the southwest. Substantial areas are also identified.for drainaoe and flood control, primarily in the Comilla and Barisal areas where the works required.do not Dresent malor enzineering nroblems and the notential benefits annear to be attainable relatively quickly. - 37, -

CHAPTER V

KmT PROGRAM ASSUMPTIONS

Area Agriculture Programs

5.01 Two area development programs underly the assumption that maximum use wi4ll be marde of ava;ilble technologv adapted to various parts of the country: a minimum package program and an intensive package program.

Minimum Package Program 5.02 The minimum package program would follow the paijtern of the Accelerated Rice Production Program to Popularize IR-20 L/ launched in 1970 under which seeds of new varieties have been made available in suitable areas together with complementary quantities of fertilizers and pesticides, at an estimated cost of Tks 5 million (US$700,000). This program would make use of the available extension organization. The minimum package program would spread innovation to about 30% of the farmers in any given area within 10 years, which is comparable with the most ambitious programs elsewhere. However, in particularly favorable areas, the minimum package program would be preparatory to the introduction of the full range of supporting services provided by the intensive package program.

5.03 The Extension Directorate, with existing staff, would be largely responsible for the program, and the special funds for the program would be for training, demonstrations as needed, and staff incentives. The objectives of the approach would be to ensure that new rice varieties are demonstrated in all suitable areas as soon as adequate seed is available, together with the relevant technology package to all suitable areas. Rice would be the most important crop so treated, followed by jute, wheat and groundnuts.

5n4 A."PAreas to be included in the program each season wou ld be selected by consultation between research, administrative and advisory services, to deci-de- w-h.atv seed-s to-bullk- andyith-e quiantities of seeds,' fe rt i.ize-nrsc and oth,er inputs to place in the chosen areas at the right time. The Tks 2 million (TUS 200,000) a year r progra00 -ning aing-s for staff and 500,000 training days for farmers. Staff would be given special t'-rairling f"or now se-eds and accompanying technology or rvefreshler trl,AlngiLIJLr where their task wculd be the sipport of farm-to-farm distribution of seed previlously introduced. The research services wovld take apreminent part in staff training. Trained staff would teach the new technology to farmers, at- T.>ana Trainin a,d- eeop,n Centers fmm). lleadlers in day.~ ~ .. jjcou;rses u~± o~ O. ±L1d. L I"I d.LL .L/uIrVC;±UPJIIIt U IJU LU.~~J (T-4--JUJ

- .'..' ± JsL U~iILLJiI.~u Lu 1 av.LULI ± svLI Ui Uesve Ut . USL ,IltJ XLt-1.[1-LULI WU:.L . to introduce new varieties and to teach new technology. An allocation of

1/ After a field testing on 200,000 acres, some 0.5 million acres were so p two yer le1 . ::Ju P.LULift! UWU yt-,/U, -LELvUI'* TKS 2 miiiion (uS$ 280,000) a year is proposea ±or ifeid demonstrations. This would allow 20,000 one-half acre field demonstratins per year to be conducted by extension staff in cooperation witn farmers. Part of the funds would provide materials to the well-staffed and well-equipped agricultural information center in Dacca for the supply of audio-visual supporting materials. Finally, there would be Tks 1 million (US$ 140,000) per year provision for staff incentives -- up to Tks 200 (-US$ 28) per extension worker per year paid for meeting targets. This type of operation was successfully pioneered by the Accelerated Rice Production Program.

5.06 The minimum package approach would enable the best farmers rapidly to adopt new seeds and related technology. Their example would be emulated by large numbers of neighbors, so that the new crop varieties would be speedily and widely distributed. With one extension worker to 1,500 largely ill-educated farmers and with credit not readily available to the mass of smaller farmers, the new seeds would give some yield increase but probably only on the order of half the increase possible with a more intensive approach. However, the immediate widespread distribution of new seeds would lay the foundation for an intensive approach possible when additional staff becomes available.

Intensive Inputs Package in Concentration Areas

5.o7 The intensive4 package program would be concentrated in areas wheret muJfr' v4.a nwww'i f-a4 +h 4m^. wiaA 4 ,m%n+e ,_V% ha v%-,. i.+4^aA __ 4 _ %rha,.e aN .aa.r.a.si Za w.--. ^fr,- prve __ - p- _Uee 4- y A.n.-. , / broadcast ausi' or jute can be followed by transplanted aman; '(b) peas with 4 4 w. 4aer+4ew, %.*a"a +a r amaDn aavt be follA.'wAr d by'a boro c. -hr. (c) a.. - C ------areas where jute is grown on more than 10% of the cultivated land. The actuval areas astea+ad for this concentr,stion p g have been. ide.Lif_ed on the basis of land capability information and maps. In these areas, it should be poss4ble +t achieve a diAja4 nva+v jw. of4 4proA ed4 ratces a er P 48%oa farmers within a 10-year time frame. However, this would require far greater 4 etesario i^.. saff P cor..cenatr.fa+G40na a..beut.r ta-4.. 4a4 -+ - r..rs .a..ha, been available so far. This will call for a special training effort and, 44'.anaCa * a ^d-P +a 4 .4. an 4_, a -. -e prvgar.e-. i 1 wi' bea MW& %W'j.-, in WV.J 6.a~ j1f A &W1 .6L&4UL L5~.V%W bf%ARr1 FJ& 5L LIL L.O a.LLfl4..JV AiJ iJ% relatively slow at first.

5.08 The connentration areas can be expected to become heavy rice surplus areas. Production effort will therefore have to be supported by adequate marketing; including transport. To help accommodate adeauate draft animal power requirements for timely land preparation, a livestock improvement seheme wonlld be nart of the concentration area nrogram: and for the same reason, increased emphasis would be called for in research for vnrieties with shorter maturity npriods Sneed of implementation of the intensive inputs programs is determined by staff availability, rate nf t.mnhP_rp 1 ron.st.rci(.tjonn and rate of irri sti on groun formation bv farmers.

1/ See Glossary. - 35 -

5.09 This proeram would involve the expenditure of Tks 1,060 million (US$ 150 million) over 10 years and the employment of an additional 825 agricultural graduates and 3,900 agricultural diploma holders. 'The extension staff would be mobile so that senior staff could exercise adequate sunervision and so that field staff could reach all parts of their work area. Motor vehicles or boats, and adequate operating funds would be necessa-v for Thana Agricultural Officers. sub-division and District headquarters staff and an adequate travelling allowance for Union Agricultural Assi st nnts =

5.10 The Plqnt Protention Services should be drastically reorganized. The Agricultural Development Corporation (AJJC) would seil pesticides and nn1li;r n+.r +.hrnialgh thp fa-rm inpus+.s d1Pea1lrtin qv-.qT.tm FanrmePrsmr uniilrd nnna v pesticides themselves. The emphasis would be on the use of granular pesti- pi cAd=s -ra.ni r, +houngh mnre PvnPsqive, are more- ffect-iveu and Peaier to applyv than sprays; the application is comparable to tha-' of fertilizers familiar to a larger number of farmers in Bangladesh. Specalnist plant protect'on staff would be responsible for pest scouting, and for advising and training s+tafT oandl ffaC:mYC - *;i fn t+ +.hagywr ,TmIl1bPe crncinlis Tson re;inforce +he general extension staff. At each of the 52 District headquarters, the existing plainrt prro,tection sta+.fff' wouldI1bea rinr'vnea-sed hrba mrh-ila1 cout+in team of two assistant plant protection officers. They would build up a com.os ,p1ivurI o-af' pest+ Q+. +sCZ I e. l t imes so +1lme- t,nVIr)r?ri-ming rl a-pli- cation of pest control can be scheduled to coincide with early outbreak s tage s.

0 4.4. ku.i-cLLIdJ lLtUov HUly IIL6l± u UUIJ i' 5 JJ~U L.U UJ. UliS- dtr1 1. cultural extension services. To achieve positive results, present and future staff wua-ld n-reed approYpriate traiUIng. A graduate animali Husbandry officer could be posted to each District Headquarters, to conduct in-service

staff training anld to guide field staff. Bc-use-- o Ua-cdr p -owercould become a limiting factor to agricultural intensification in concentration areas, the primar-y objective -would be imUprovemen-11t of draft animals quickly by better feeding and by introducing parasite control on a larger scale.

5.12 A youth program could be planned for areas of concentration, to reinforce thUPe smal'll exdsti-ng program. Lhis could be directed from national headquarters. By means of small projects, children can help diversify the family diet and sometimes help to introduce new farming techniques.

>.13 An extension program ior women could be introduced into 157 thanas of the seven districts where most intensive agricultural development has been planned -- Dinajpur, Rangpur, Barisal/Patuakhali, Dacca and Mymensingh/ Tangail. The woments program might concentrate on solving health and nutrition problems. Instruction would take place at the TTDC and the extension worker would need a properly equipped classroom. It may be difficult to find women with agricultural training for these posts; teaching qualifications with home economics would be satisfactory. Graduate staff would need overseas training and diploma staff at least six-month special training locally. The program would initially require technical assistance. - 36 -

Jute

5.14 Jute production would be stimulated by aqn intensi ve diri vp -n about 1.5 million acres, in 157 thanas of the concentration areas. The iiite npackage is bhased on imn-rovedr varieties accompanied by appropriate inputs, such as timeliness of planting, sowing the jute in lines, better thinning and weeding, correct fs=rtli atiAnn and adequate plant protection. Seed drills would be provided for line sowing. With the introduction of line sowing cha_nes in cultivation tech--i--- -vn more drastic than changes in paddy cultivation and would require intensive farmer training

5.15 L.rlth the in.troduc+lon of' TInT auso vaieie of lc ,; c.tlc compete for land with jute, the only way to expand jute production in the short te- and to establish a base for f,'ther growth A-0dbe a.. increase in the farmgate price of raw jute. The stabilization of export a,n4 ; 4I; A- - A --- ; A- -S P -;,,+-A; - -- AA\;+-; P- -A 4A -; --; - -A v, - 4 4 a | e .-A a- ac, a C J4.- , 0 svc a yr....-; y4 .4v .a E, .a- improving Bangladeshts competitive position in the world market. This may require caing a certain buffer stock from year to year. Relatively limited stocks should be adequate to even out the year to year fluctua- utio iLL DangIldhut± s-upply.

~i--the domestuicu juut gUouo m[aJnUflactUL±lg liluUsury mally hlave t auDurU part of the price increase to be given to farmers. It would be necessary U xd[ii-ne the posslbilities Ub sruiwline the domestic umtarketing sy-stem,1 for jute in order to improve incentives to farmers, and while so doing, to reduce the burden on the jute goods marnulacturing industry. A program of industrial research should be devised to improve present products -- especially carpet backing, the only existing rapid growth product of the industry. Future growth of theindustry will depend heavily on the possibility of diversifying the end use of jute.

Rural Organization

5.17 Any agricultural development program depends to a large degree for its success on a set of rural institutions designed to support technological innovation. In Bangladesh the foundations for sound rural institutions already exist. The key innovative aspect is a decentralized organizational structure which permits effective execution of widely scattered, small development projects. In the Bangladesh setting of small and fragmented farms and rural underemployment, this approach is crucial since it fully recognizes and attempts to easy prevailing institutional constraints to development programs.

5.18 In the past, rural development activities centered on two major programs: the Rural Works Program and the Thana Irrigation Program. Work had also begun on a third, the Integrated Rural Development Program (the system of Thana Central Cooperatives). The first two have provided the infrastructure to develop the production capacity of the land, the third would help to release the farmer from the money lender and would enable him to adopt mode, fwming +.c. n ep i rMno esemr,o pro g th r nm vided an institutional framework within which the rural population formulated development propUosl's, par tUlciypatOed in thUe pl nnlng4.a and, to a'.lar.ge eXtUent, executed them. Local officials controlled expenditures and provided technical ser-vices includlng tra.i1r.g for farmers aand su'lles o-" agrL.l%ur ii.puits. Through the thana cooperatives, farmerst savings, supplemented by government funds, provided loans to those previo-usly ignored by institutional credit. The effect of this partnership at the local level has been to provide the foundations of a deceroalied organizational sysueri w-cl -i esseniA the agricultural inputs which constitute the new technology are to be assured of reaching the small farmer.

5.19 hle central effort of the rural development prUgrail, in the futur-e should be training aimed to improve local capabilities and expertise to meet development problems; examples are: the training of cooperative personnel in rural credit organization and accounting principles; the training of thana agricultural officers, and subsequently iower ievei extension personnel (about half of whom are now untrained and thus of doubtful effectiveness); the upgrading of thana irrigation officials to understand and cope with problems of irrigation design; and the training of thana technical officers responsible for road construction and other civil engineering works.

5.20 In addition to improving the capabilities of the officers and staff of the rural institutions, attention would have to be given to strengthening the central institutions which set guidelines, service and cater to the local needs. Examples of such actions are as follows: the establishment of an efficient low-lift pump and tubewell maintenance organization within the ADC; streamlining the ADC input distribution program, e.g. to insure that fertilizer godowns (storage sheds) are located and constructed in the areas in wVaich they will be most needed; ensuring that the Water and Power Development Authority has sufficient capability to evaluate thana irrigation plans from a technical point of view, a function it has so far been unable to execute; the strengthening of the Department of Agriculture to ensure that its officers in the field have an adequate supply of up-to-date extension materials associated with the new inputs.

Research

5.21 The striking success of rice research proves that research can be one of the most fundamental contributions to the agricultural development of Bangladesh. A research program of Tks 560 million (US$ 80 million) has been tentatively formulated. It would cover the key components of agricultural development such as rice, jute and other crops, livestock, fisheries, forestry and economic research related to them. An essential part of the research program would be the strengthening of the various specialized research institutions and of the research facilities of universities and colleges. Also, agricultural and economic statistics would be improved. Costs for the research program, including the cost of - 38 -

the: UL"Ver-sity progra,,m, iIjdM-e atUCL aL c.apit cU U oI 1-KS I.5 million (US$ 19 million) over the first ten-year period, with recurrent expenditure rising to Tks 42 mlllion (Tku$ 6 mlllon) above present expenditure.

5.22 Fumre research programs require an even sharper focus on the specific problems and potentials of Bangladesh. In particular, it is essential to adjust the rice cropping cycie to the special hydrologic conditions of the region. With rice varieties increasingly tuned to hydrologic cycles of specific areas of bangladaesn, it snoula be possible to maKe substantially better use of land and water resources and thus reduce radi- cally the degree of precision required in future drainage and flood control schemes. Given the high cost and managerial complexity of such schemes under Bangladesh conditions, this would be of decisive importance to the future growth of agricultural production. Furthermore, longer intervals between crops would reduce demands on draft power provided almost exlusively by draft animals, suffering seriously from inadequate feed supply. Another important issue with rice is the need for improved tolerance to salinity (for the coastal areas).

5.23 With the very heavy emphasis on production gains through improved varieties of rice, serious effort must continue to develop new varieties to mhinimize the danger of disease. Such effort has in fact been underway at the Institute of Rice Research in Dacca. However, close contact between the research and field practices must be maintained. Extensive disease damage to a new variety is one of the great threats to farmer confidence and could contribute to a retardation of the diffusion of modern technology.

Agricultural Training

5.24 A prerequisite to the accomplishment of the proposed production programs is the development of the required manpower. A suggested agricultural training program costing Tks 335 million (US$ 48 million) for ten years has therefore been formulated. The program would supplement existing training facilities to provide the trained agricultural manpower. The time schedule for this program would essentially determine the time schedule for the other programs outlined below. Enrolment and staffing at all existing education institutions would be restored to the 1969/70 level before beginning further development schemes. Courses for staff who require professional (degree) training would usually be 4-5 years or more. Diploma courses are usually 2-3 years and other technical training may take 12-18 months. Pump operators and village accountants have 2-4 week training courses and a similar length of training is proposed for cooperative society managers. Both managers and model farmers would attend regular weekly one-day training at Thana Training and Development Centers (TTDC). The proposed program is designed to meet the deficiencies in training agricultural diploma holders and cooperative staff and committee members as follows:

(a) 2.000 District Training Center places in 1978 and 5,400 in 1983; kb) 1`00 new union agricultural assistants in I970 and 6,550 in 1983;

(d) 2,500 new cooperative assistants in 1978 and 6,000 in 1983;

(e) 500 new cooperative officers in 1978 and 800 in 1983.

Farm Inputs and Supporting Services

Inputs 5.25 Seed. High priority should be given to assuring the rapid spread of new high-yielding grain varieties and assuring a supply of good seeds. The Government prepared a project with such objectives with FAO/IBRD assistance and a Bank appraisal mission was in the field at the outbreak of hostilities. At full production, the project would supply about 18,000 tons of seed grown and processed under strict supervision. With respect to jute, efforts should initially be concentrated to provide adequate seed for the intensive jute cultivation areas but, of course, seed will be available throughout the country. The ultimate aim of a jute seed production project should be to provide seed for about 25% of the area every year.

5.26 Fertilizers. The current fertilizer distribution network is geared to administrative and geographic concepts and not to specific needs of a particular area. To update basic information regarding crops and varieties, a soil fertility investigation project is proposed. Its capital costs are about Tks 9.5 million (US$ 1.4 million) and annual recurring costs about Tks 1.23 million (US$ 160,000).

5.27 As the country has large reserves of natural gas which has the right composition for urea manufacture with a minimum of waste, urea production capacity might be so planned as to meet the needs of the country from domestic soarces, while also exploring possibilities for exports. On the other hand. because there are no known DhosDhate sources and there is no present geological evidence that any will be found, imports must continue.

Agricultural Credit and Cooneratives

5.28 The role of agrimiltural credit is crucinl to sustnin inpuits diffusion. It is expected that production credit would be increasingly channelled thmugh the Thnna nentral Goonperative ASSOGiations_ MlTIti-A purpose cooperatives would be gradually phased out. The Agricultural Develonment Bank should also ewnwnd its activities. Lonns would be sni-i tuted for outright relief in case of emergencies. The past repayment record of apr-nbltural eredit has hbpn irnJ-tisf^t-or)Y in -articular fo-r rmlti purpose cooperatives which experience over 30% default rate in their nnniinl Thnding.

5.29 The ohber+Alve of' -tng up extensive- omilla otrnvillage primary cooperatives in a ten-year period to supply credit and inputs,

eost+incg-"t-. -_Gvr.n-?znmennt-_ _.- - - an totaln-_ _ of-_ -lr Lt.'.1 OOU° .,,-mnilion ..a ,fl,a, . (TTSZ r55 7 m41" llo)of-JL -I ,'IJ4. -1-;" ch- credit would be Tks 2,Ylu million US$ 403 million),may be the most ambitious part of ti agricultural development exercise. . s prora i-h priority for international support. Expansion of cooperatives would ensure

that~~~~-1int lrincnet-vo ra, ara e-Ivnua_l'y iII 'l ofBr.ldeh every farmer would have access to current inputs and credit. At present, only ,Aw i f r'erI beeft from4- 4nthe nw tT 4e;thereo e a Adyami cooperative program is necessary to allow poorer farmers to participate

in accelerate%d .1.'..ic.J. U4U. @.J.. .. lUJ.LV'tJ._Jrl.L-JUV Ue V UeVev=lUpIJ.1lU would therefore be an essential part of the concentration areas approacn and would eventually replace the existlng countrywlde system,j of union m,,ultipur- pose cooperatives which presently serve only a small proportion of the rural _0- __. . __ kJUk)Udal.U±VL.1

lilt: JheT pUi:osU Den-ytea coopativ-UeLV p.ogicuII hal:s ueetl UbaseU Ulo on cooperative society for 100 acres (in irrigation areas this would mean two irr-igation p-umrps per society) fedueraedU into mharldUi uldrl Wopuratlvud Association (TCCA) in each of the 263 thanas of the concentration areas. Because of tjhe eno nir'y of thls tjask, cooperatilve development] effortjs may need to be confined to concentration areas. The size of individual TCCA could vary with projected development intensity of the thana and would include between 200-400 financing societies.

Agricultural Extension 5.31 The Extension Directorate of the Ministry of Agriculture would remain responsible for most agricultural advisory work. But to meet the requirements of accelerated development, some changes might be considered. Staff terms of service should be improved; the number of technical staff should be doubled; there should be intensified staff training with special courses for those Union Agricultural Assistants who have never had formal technical training; and there should be adequate financial provision for staff travel, and for agricultural demonstrations and other field works. Four related programs with a total cost of Tks 1,350 million (US$ 186 million) over ten years are suggested for the extension services: (a) improvement of terms of service of existing staff; (b) the minimum package approach; (c) intensive inputs package (concentration areas) approach; (d) additional staff.

Water Program

Objectives and Priorities

5 3 ~ The major objective of the water program postulated in the Study is o fill the long-term gap (about 60% of food requirements at the end of the century) that would otherwise exist between future demands for agri- cultaral commodities and the self-sufficiency level of production that can be achieved from agricultural inputs alone by about 1985. Investment in low-lift pumps and tubewlls for irrigation form the nucleus of the short- term program. Over the medium and long term. large-scale projects would be required if the country is to meet its food requirements in later years. Other important objectives of the water program would be to improve transportation. These elements have yet to be brought in explicitly in the modelling analyses of the Studv.

5.33A The water nrogram set out in the Study constitutes a balanced mix of activity including the immediate installation of large numbers of t+.bewells and low-liCt pumps; construction of minor drainage and flood protection works; implementation of major flood protection works including the Coastan Embankments; and continued nrojrect nrenaration for othpr major schemes. All these activities should be coupled with comprehensive studies (includinag reviews of upntream developments) so that planning criteria And resource allocations can be more accurately defined as the program proceeds.

5.34 The tentative medium- and long-term projections would bring irrigtiorto an addition- 2.8 million _ces hy 193;4. million be_Teer 1983 and 1993; and 1.6 million between 1993 and 2003, for a total of 8.8 million acres over an.d above tXhe 0.8 million now receiving lrrigatton. All of these areas would be included in the intensive inputs package program described above. T oTw"-1-P4 pumps representv tbe -lowes+v couhgetbn- Er'"41 .Lj V -, Oj'- VI JJ'. VVL..L U tULSJ 1 ILI± VII'. .LJV~~ V ..'JC) 1 "rL.EIIUO V ULl/~L1 fit and most flexible approach to irrigation, and therefore have substantial prJr; 4-_ | orNibew1oAT - 5o^nd pu png -P - sources wa " -"s _T'sbelts5A5u ..LLJ.I. .* XUU.v Vw L- vi CU'. AUIU.U. U.LIiJF L16 i' WIJJ 14 LC o I v C sL wv U v." v u developed over substantial areas. Finally, there are major areas which wouldu bL)e:ne.f.Lt fror, execuiUon oLf m,.iLnor dulrainage works LLLn. ULI1 Ud.L,y years_ oLf the program. Medium and major drainage works would receive increased empha- sls in the seconu and 4ird udeUaUde. Ara underlco,,,Plete water Uuo.Urol (irrigation, drainage and flood protection) would increase from about 10,000 acres t)o dao-uu 1.5 Imillion acres b3y 19U3), _).9 mL.LULI acres i 1993J anU aUout 5.3 million acres by the end ofthe century.

Pattern of Investment and Policy Implications

5.35 The total capital cost of the water program for the first ten years is given below, togetner with projections for the suDsequent two decades (in US$ million): - h2 -

_- - r-io. ------

1973=9318-10993oi10QIO 199-0)o Total For.Ex. Total- r-.Ex. Total For.Ex.

Irrigation Only T - I1.P-- -- 4- - Tubewell projects 240 150 204 136 19 13 Other projects 8 2 1 12 6 4 ~IU 14 17 4u-tto 313 200 22)1 148. 1

.L.L.UOUdU.1.ULvd.LLU .±.LLIag IrrigatLiu oi- ad Drainage Tubewell projects - - 171 1C3' 75 46 Surf ac -watJer proj ects With minor drain. works 35 18 18 9 - - WLth mediumUldrain. works qg 26 68 0l 5 With major drain. works 157 36L02 126 82 i5

Sub-total 227 108 559 277 167 86

Drainage only 92 5 6 1 9 1 'otal Costs 633 323 787 427 201 104

5.36 The Study also advocates that a major effort to strengthen programs of rural works and, in this connection, reconsideration could be given to the previous Bank Group work done on a credit for this type of activity. There should also be an effort to revitalize programs for irrigation activities in the thanas, with heavy emphasis on practical training, particularly cooperative management, bookkeeping, use of credit facilities, water management and construction of irrigation distribution systems.

5.37 There should be a tiajor initiative to develop local construction capacity particularly for well-drilling and embankment construction. Special support might be given to local suppliers and manufacturers to meet the material and equipment needs of the construction program. Furthermore, Indian sources of supply of stone and other construction materials should be investigated. Extraction, storage and transportation capacity should be developed for gravel, pump and motor manufacture and assembly plants must be encouraged -- and the possibility of increasing manufacture of PVC pipe (for well screens and casings) should be actively explored.

5.38 Finally, the initiation of a series of regional studies, both within Bangladesh and in relation to neighboring areas of India, is required without delay to provide the necessary data and resolution of outstanding technical problems.

The Supply of Irrigation Water

5.39 The major findings of the Study concerning the supplies of surface and groundwater are: - 43 -

(a) With relatively minor excentions. irrigated agriculture can be expanded from additional groundwater and surface watepr resqclrces and by increasing neriods of oneration from supplies available in each location;

(b) Low flows during the dry season may well cause severe shortages in mnnv Inoetinns anrl fiir+.hPr penetration of saline water in the coastal areas woald result from major rl;a"s7~At-ncl r1+.;ri Rnnrric'h,~ h ~oI l; c,h+.Ana'a_ _ +.h-- e n,g- f'nr an early accord with India on water rights;

(c) To develop the] ultimate potential in the coastal area, deevelp~pnent c -n be impplem-entred by water transfer from the vicinity of the Ganges-Brahmaputra confluence and vim,r ra-,,- ,,o r e, ng andde in i, - iay-eusgi mjrp gram of estuary closures and channel improvements.

5.40 The analysis of surface water availability indicais that a key fact-or-L 0..,4dJ JnI fut-r4,L J . 91 irrigatlon.44.. .4.S0.U.LI4 WAI d^velopment4. .. iJ LIL V -willYV..44.L9L be- lnrasn.4144.~L AJ. -LLL U.L1i n.berI.LLUJIJLS-h of hours of irrigation each day and that in this respect a large potential for expansi""n of low-lift pump irrigation exists in addition to 4the' pot4-et4.i remaining from unexploited sources of water. The effect would be a much _larger. supplyo4.. - waCter de'livered toUIL'_the 4ield but~J, atU Uthe Os«'Me U_~ti', thsIZ analysis shows there would be a reduced requirE ent at the rivers in terms o.f flow U.LVersio.Lns. IV aLcLeve *Uhls,Wi1 LLi LeUUy -L puFip useLl WUItLUA [lU, necessarily have to increase, but if utilization did improve, it would mean a lower density- of p-ups installed and lo-we uiiit irrigation costs.

5LIVVLLUw-aUeULf Jwil becoUme iIlcteasiIlgly ±[rripu.LaILt for agricuiturVal development in Bangladesh. The actual and potential groundwater recharges in Bangladesh during monsmoon are very hiLghi anu muc;h oi this water can be used during the dry season. Tubewells permit irrigation of lands which cannot be served by surface supplies because of the distances from perennial rivers. Over most of Bangladesh there are groundwater aquifers which are suitabie for pumping, although the depth to suitable aquifers varies from one locality to another (see inset, Analytical Map - Hydrology).

5.42 Some of the potential for irrigation expansion in the Southwest Region is qualified by the possibility that saline water may intrude further inland as the result of irrigation developments upstream. The irrigation withdrawals inside Bangladesh, even assuming no major diversions outside of the auntry, may well add the maximum seasonal movement resulting from the extreme variation in river discharge and energy gradient between monsoon flooding and low dry season flows.

5.43 The largest remaining source of river water to be exploited exists in the fresh water tidal zone of Barisal and Patuakhali. Few areas in this zone are more than half a mile from a tidal creek and the soils are almost all suitable for irrigated rice cultlvatlon. Full development in this area could be achieved without major engineering works and therefore the investment risks associated with possible further saline intrusion re I mvi,nimvn. T'he fnt-t+onr limitiny fihll devenmea+ nf o low-lift. pnml irrigation in this area is the risk that heavy water extraction within t-he Barisal/Patuakha1ln4 ara-U11 also pus@h the an1ivritw limit upwards.

The Bangladesh. thdrawls m,it be conidered ansinst the background of changes in upland river flows which are, in principle, beyond the c0r.trol of Banrglad1e sh. Both +.h. .. q-tity+alwity an-ed q+4 4 of.t+w the rve4ry,v flows may change. In trying to assess these changes, it is important 4 4 *-nct+ v ^ nplra-aJ + vvvJ.-- n^ n ojAaw +ha-* 1J,.--ah^"-_v-- * vvn .w v- +A4vvPi+iiv.a (a 1 ORA'._vJ -r =- v a1OAIc:l ' but also the longer term prospects (say 2000 and beyond) difficult as this many be.

Fisheries

54hFisheries hol unique positior. ir.the economy nf Bar.glesh, rankindg second only to agriculture as an economic activity. Roughly 15 4 4 1 mn4114 nf anl-- a Aaam-A A4--'.an+.I- -m 4 -A -ma -rnm o+ Wa #4 nl4, -m.A nn1 +-,n m .llior.peopW'ex depend d. -cl or i. d.LA&J. or catv Y. shir. ar.d'.' fisheries for their livelihood. Fish forms the second staple diet of the 4 4 e-ople a-.,dA f P- accoabout - 4tseaor cpt 4" 4per. -4- .ua1 pro= F~ _L~ Gwa C&m .J MS.4 UQ .LJ Q& J.V 4*U %JW/Jf 4JL ULL~ FW 4..aF4jJ.. U LASUL" WJ.5. CLAJ.IU&UG FJJv' tein. Few regions in the world enjoy such vast resources within their hJO J CAL.4.LO '%J.. Q 1 JLA,1.L,VA.~1L9,A J.A&1L VU%L.Z UJ.LC.G 4J4V.5. U1 r LVVUJ VJ.L WUL1 fisheries is probably considerable, but is poorly known. The crucial role o. iJ.sherLes in. terLs of1 e ploymuAent., rLutr.itLLon, in.come distdributLio.LULL ar1.d foreign earnings suggests a bold approach. The aim should be to seek imme-

ia.LatLIe gar.Ls f.oL Lar,.Ld LseOLries.LWQ I InUL1UO oV.1. maraUCLI lAe0t, U1rar,spo.Lrt CLA marketing, and to achieve long-term gains through research and institution

U'd-ULLLLr,.buildir.g. Furthe.oIe,£ L UlW .IU. theVIJt. .LLAinterfee,et M.L L. CL UV05 U1LLIh AP=IUU.C.Laua GJ moveme-4-lIU U l1UO V.5ffih . OJA which water control measures sometimes cause, should be reduced to a

_. _:.2- -_ ___ _._ - -.. -A_ LL.. -.- ' -2 __ _- -- r ._ S .2 laLL Luua--U1LL-u.LK1L UtoL.LL U1UII;U ±U"I'd±LU U0 U Xt;U±V±.l Ug.Lu tllpw U! .II -L- vidual schemes at all stages of the project cycle. CHAPTER VI

INTERSECTORAL ASPECTS

6.01 The large population of 74.4 million (in 1971) is crowded into a relatively small area of 55.000 square milesl/!. resulting in a very high man/land ratio. (See Table VI-1.) The cultivated area comprising all suitable land is about 35,000 square miles (22.5 million acres). The habitable area is reduced by annual flooding of about a third of the country2 /. by cyclones which periodically ravage the coastal zones of the Bay of Bengal, and by the steeply sloping hills along the eastern and northeastern borders. In 1965, Bangladesh had 6.9 persons per cultivated hectare, a density exceeded only by Taiwan and United Arab Republic among less developed countries. Only some industrialized nations had reached a good standard of living in spite of higher or comparable population densities, as highliphted by Japan's two and a half times higher population density, and WJest Germany's and United Kingdom's slightly higher population densities per cultivated hectare. (See Table VI-2.) 6.02 About 90% of the countrv's population is rural. and about 80% of these are engaged in agriculture. Agricultural output accounts for about 55% of the gross domestic product directly, and for an additional 17% indirectly. The share of agriculture in GDP has remained virtually constant over the past decade. Malor crons 2/ comDrise about 65% of the agriculture sector product as against 9% for livestock and 11% for fisheries. while forestrv is insiznificant. Even with increases in jute manufacture after the partition from India, total industrial output still accounted for only 9% of GDP. (See Table VI-3.) Sixtv-five percent of all industrial production is still. accounted for by the processing of iute. cotton, supar. oilseeds; rice and wnod nroducts in spite of public sector industrial ventures in shipbuilding and iron and steel. (See Table VT-L.) Well over 90% of the foreivn exchange earnings of Bangladesh are generated by agriculture and related industries. Raw and nrncessed iute exnorts alone aceount fnr some 90n of exnnort earnings= (See Table VI-5.)

l/ It is one quarter the size of France, one third the size of Japan, and one half the size of Germany. 2/ See Volume VIII, Technical Report No. 24. 3/ Major crops consist mostly of rice and jute, plus smaller quantities of wheat, grain and pulses, oilseeds, potatoes, sugarcane, tea and tobacco. - L6 -

Population and E ploe-d+1

Popuaation

6.o3 Census figures suggest that the Bangladesh population has increased from 42 million persons in 1951 to 53.' 2/million in 1961, at an implicit average armual rate of 24'/O ine estimate of- 72.t4 million people in 1970, recently used by the Planning Commission, implies an annual average rate of growth of 3.1.: over the sixties.3. Population pressure on the already thickly settled land is expected to increase, even if efforts in family planning are effective beginning in 1973. Between 19ou and 1970, fertility rates in Bangladesh declined from over 7.0 to about 6.5 births per woman. Mortality rates started to decline after IWborld WJar II from around 30 deaths per thousand to the present rate of around 17 per thousand. A continuing high rate of population growth is generally anticipated over the next two or three decades. Technical Report No. 27 on Family Planning gives an assessment of past birth control programs and recommendations for a more effective family planning strategy. Such a strategy implies close integration with health and nutrition programs, and a deliberate focus on the most receptive groups of the population.

Employment

6.o4. Urban unemployment in Bangladesh is at least 10% in large towns. Village surveys suggest that over 25% of the man-days available for work are unemployed due to the highly seasonal pattern of agricultural work. The availability of redundant labor has resulted in a thin spread of available work. For example, owners of 3-5 acre farms tend to hire labor for the bulk of their agricultural requirements. Though these owners are better off than most people, they represent an underutilized labor force which could be drawn into productive work as the economy develops. At the other end of the scale, landless laborers often find work for five months of the year, or less. The situation of a large labor surplus is aggravated by the rapid increase of the labor force of about one million every year, or a 4% annual expansion rate.

1/ See Volume II, Technical Report No. 5 on the Special Problem of Employ- ment. _/ The 1961 census has been criticized hr some demographers in that it inclu es a "dent" in the population pyramid in the 20-25 year age group. While av-aillable evideance isz not. orn1i-ro, we beJe_ that some low' cour.t in. Jils age group can be explained by a drop in birth rates during the early 40's, a period of severe depriv-vai clmaxed y the 1943 , i. A4aI rela Lt iveL rapid increase in births would have followed in the early 50's, causing the

3/ The Planning OanLmiission assum-led an adju-Isted count of 55 m;llion persons in 1961. This would imply an annual average rate of growth of about 2. 95p over the sixties. Work done at the Harv='d Center for Popu'ation Studies and elsewhere evidences similar rates of growth between 1951, 1961 and 1971. 6.05 Labor absorption in the non-agricultural sector has been very slow and available data suggest that the proportion of population in agriculture actually increased in the sixties. If such a trend persists, 90$ of future increments in the labor force would have to be employed in agriculture. Because of the small base of the non-agricultural sector, even a substantial increase in non-agricultural employment would do little to relieve the need for increased productive work opportunities within the agricultural sector in the course of this decade. A 5-6% increase in non-agricultural employment would mean an absorption of only 200,000 - 300,000 per year in this decade, leaving 700,000 - 800,000 per year to be absorbed in the agricultural sector. A 5-6% increase in non-agricultural employment would be an extraordinary achievement for a region which lacks substantial infrastructure and industrial skills. If, as is likely, it is not achieved,agriculture will have to carry an even greater emplovment burden. In the long-run, however. labor absorption will have to occur largely outside of agriculture.

6.06 Modernization of agriculture in Bangladesh should allow significant absorption of labor at increasing productivity levels. While the hirh- yielding rice varieties are not likely to lead to dramatic increases in cropping intensities. exceDt in specific areas like the Barind tract. labor requirements per acre should go up with increased use of modern inputs and shifts from broadcast to transplanted naddv crons. The Study nroiects a 50< increase in rice output tyfing 1973-83 and an increase in related inputs, including labor of about 20<,J This is enuivalent to a direct increase of 270.000 jobs ner year or about a fourth of the increment to the labor force. In addition, the multinlier Pmnlovment effect.s in nrooessin, marketing and nrov.ision of input.s can be expected to be substantial. The emphasis of the agricultural policy pronosed by the Study is on measures wh-ich a;im at imnroving lahor and land productivity simultaneously. The new rice technology should not be subjected to diminishing returns. nrovided that rural orcani7ation and crerlit systems are geared to serve a large proportion of farmers. An important aspect of this policy would be to rely more heavily on the price mechannism than in +he past, especially inith respect to interest rates, iwhich have been too loT. iAile some mecha-hnization mnay be 1ustified -tn meef- seasonal pneak in specific areas of high cropping intensities, no large-scale power tiller or tractor progrnm, ¶.rhl ch woulAi mlv significant 1abor dnlament, is recommTended.

Education Standards

6.07- I Me >4goper. -.d *-nemm lomen.t I.s rovs in the low educational level. Some 85% of the people are illiterate and no fuwindarmrental im,.provem.ent is in sight. Less than hal of the school age popu= lation enter schools and a majority of them drop out before completing the fl rs+ +.rn yea o fP nl mentanyr school. Mn-. rer--, the q-ui A- ofP cAuca---- - 'C.ars of ~ ±U. ~ fJJL JJ.''0V~J ULIe.. Lju.6.". V'Y _J " U.L%JLIJ throughout the system does not meet the requirements of modern economic and con;c:i r1c rol rnrmcn+ j See Volume IV, Technical Report lNo. 7 Natural Resources

6.o8 Aside from land resources and high quality natural gas,

L~J I L -UrU. resoUar.e haVW UD-U IuOwn.o ±LLc rucoverao±e reserves of the seven gas fields so far found are estimated at 8.35 trillion cubic feet. Iccluding the sma,ll Chhata1 nd Sylhet fields, Bangladesh may have enough reserves to support a production rate of 800 million cu.ft./day for VIuenty years. At present the total-utization of natural gas in Bangladesh is only about 47 million cu.ft./day. Therefore, leaving aside her own requLrelents tIll the end of the century, Bangiadesn may nave sufficient reserves to export natural gas at the rate of 50 million cu.ft./day for more than 20 years. Mor eover, there is still a vast area, on iand and offshore, 'which is yet to be explored. The gas is predominantly methane and does not contiainI -: ImpU-ritie4_.. -- 'Ilike 'I -- ___--___2Uorosive --- ou inert._ 1 gases in. significant. _.. ... quantities, so that no purification plants are required.

Transportation and Communications

6.09 The geography of Bangladesh makes the provision of an efficient tra5sportation system extremely difficult and expensive The Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers are formidable barriers to land transportation and the unstable nature of these rI-vers, -with the constant shiftng ld silting of their course, hinders movement by wratero Much of the land is flooded during the monsoorn season with the res-ult hat depenjdence on particuar- modes of transport, particularly local, varies uith the season. The route mileage open to water transport during the wet season is considerably greater than that during the dry season, and at the same time many roads are impassable during the wet season. Rail transport, open the year round since the brack is built on high embanlments, must be flexible to fit in with this seasonal modal shift.

6.10 The Branmaputra effectively divides Bangladesn into two regions for land traffic, writh the port of Chittagong serving the eastern region and the port of Chalna the western region. Tne main freight traffic pattern is based on the export and import of material through these ports, emphasizing movement in the north-south direction. Exports consist predominantly of jute, which moves through the Dacca and Khulna areas by water to Chalna, while imports enter mainly through Cittagong and are distributed by road, rail and water. This pattern leads to empty back hauls for land transport.

6.11 Local transportation is dominated by bullock carts and sailpowered country boats wThich move over an extensive network of rural tracks and river channels. The smnll average farm size and the presently small marketable surplus make the quantities of produce which now-T move at primary market level very small. A major conclusion of this Study, how-ever, is that the quantities to be transported increase-wi substantially over the next 10 years, and that future transportation will have to be planned accordingly. -49-

Road Transport

6.12 Motor vehicle transportation has in recent years increased at a more rapid rate than the economy as a wnole. Vehicles registratlon increased by 14% per year from 1963/1964 to reach 64,700 in 1969/1970. Tnere are still, however, about 1200 persons per motor vehicle (roughly four times as many as in Pakistan). Buses account for 8% of all vehicles, trucks 13%, cars 33% and motorcycles 32%. 'Vehicle use, as indicated by fuel consumption, is difficult to gauge as no time series data exists for the consumption of diesel fuel. Petrol use, however, has increased by only 6% yearly -- far lower than the increase in the number of vehicles. This suggests that a growing proportion of new vehicles consume diesel fuel. One half of all vehicles are registered in Dacca, with 20% in Chittagong and most of the remainder centered on Khuina and Sylhet. Proper utilization of vehicles is often seriously limited by difficulties in obtaining spare parts.

6.13 The main trunk highway system consists of about 3,300 miles of roads maintained and controlled by the Roads and Highways Directorate. Only about 2,300 miles are paved and most of this is 8-10 foot single lane construction. Road construction is expensive. It requires substantial embankment work to prevent flooding during the monsoon, road-building materials such as stone and gravel are in short supply, and the local contracting industry is in- experienced.

6.14 Inter-city road movement is hampered by inadequate river crossing facilities. Bridge construction is difficult and expensive, since bridges must be built high enough to allow water traffic to pass underneath. Fbrries are affected by the changing stage and course of the rivers. Local road freight transport is by headload, bullock cart or rickshaw, and occasionally by truck. There is no reliable information on traffic pat-terns, but some 60S of local freight movements are estimated to be by bullock cart.

6.15 Local roads, constructed and maintained by the Rural Works Program2-' (RWP) have been built throughout the country with government funds. By 1970 there was extensive network of unsurfaced roads and tracks. A quarter of the funds for roadwork are normally allocatsd for maintenance, but inadequate construction standards and lack of rigorous maintenance have resulted in a rapid deterioration of the completed works. The network of local roads and tracks is now sufficient to support broad based agricultural development. However, there is a need to establish investment priorities for upgrading the more important existing roads, such as those linking Thana Headquarters with arterial routes (rail, road and waterway) and roads from Union to Thana markets, and to improve the quality of their construction. These roads must be widened and otherwise improved, and provided with proper drainage structures and bridges. Further development of local communications in rural areas must v See Volume V, Technical Report No. 13. - 50 -

be planned nith proper regard for local dependence on water and land transportation and local marketing patterns. A greater proportion of available funds should be allotted to structures and better quality earthwork and sodding, which will require improved local supervision and workmanship.

Railways

6.16 The Bangladesh Railway (BR) consists of truncated sections of the former Indian railway system. It is beset with the technical problems of operating on two track gauges (broad and meter) over its 1,781 system miles, and maintaining a connection between the two gauge systems via railway ferries across the notoriously unstable Brahmaputra river.

6.17 Nearly 40% of BR's freight consists of agricultural commodities. Fertilizer distribution also relies heavily on the railway system. Hauls on BR of more than 300 miles are rare (the average is 150 miles), and the overall volume of traffic in Bangladesh is low. In the face of competition from road transporb, BR's position as the dominant carrier has been declining. Between 1963/64 and 1968/69 while GDP grew by about 3% annually, railway freight traffic (ne-t ton miles) declined by 5.5% annually, and passenger traffic (passenger miles) increased by only about 2% per year. Resumption of trade with India and increased traffic with Calcutta and other eastern Indian markets could lead to more favorable load and route characteristics in the future.

Water Transport 6.18 The numerous waterways of Bangladesh provide the bulk of local and arterial transport. The total arterial route mileage operated throughout the year is about 3,200 miles. During the wet season this increases to about 5,000 miles, the increase being mainLy in the northern Dart of the country. Cargo routes which generally require greater draught, are 1,600 miles perenially and 1,900 miles in the wet season.

6.19 Two broad categories of vessels exist, country boats and the mechanized fleet. Country boats are privately owned and for the mwst part are comnarativelv small. Thev are powered bv sails. supDlemented by oars. It has been estimated that there are over 30 0,OOOof'these craft, but little is known about the auantitv of transportation services provided. It is thought that about one-third of country boats are cargo carriers, and the rest passenger carriers; most of the cargo carriers are of about 4T capacitv. but some of the larger boats carry over 20T. T'he most important commodities handled byv the unpowered craft are jute, foodgrains. fruits and housing materials. They also play a role in fertilizer distribution at both arterial and local level. - ,J. -

6.20 Quanti¢tat4 iave t the mech---ized l eet and associated barges is limited to a census conducted in 1965/1966. This census indicated that there -w-ere 133 ste.e-powred bots (07 f9+vly owre 1,96 motor launches, (1,043 privately owned), and 837 barges (749 private owned). Ton- rlag was abu 3f0 :'io. . more th.an 600 m-'lJon passenger m;-e were reported. Since these figures were used for tax purposes, severe under- reportirng may have occurred. 6.21 -.le- ar'anr.eclardized fleet is pr:ry cncer-e T-;7t th o6me. J@ C~L T11'e JJLL" 1lL LW .U %A U- .L J. ± ".LC"L.~.A.LJ A AA~. ~ ~ V., VI *'* '_11- of jute to and through Khulna and Chalna, which are the main distributing andu expoIUV centers f.or thlle jue and j-ute products of' Bangla desl. U.VO. U through Chalna handled by the inland fleet consist primarily of foodgraiwe, coal anud ferti'-izer. 0-7' products originating internal,y i. tlhe ChiLttgVoA.g area are carried inland by a fleet of small tankers, while some general rLercharLIdse ite rSLLsa r e hnLi Ue aed ULL LChittUagong tbo -the DaccaJarayana.rLJ area by a small fleet of ocean-going lighters which offer limited competition to the railway 'or i-Lmport traffic. * 'lWile countr-y boat ,movements extend to every navigable waterway and motor launches offer passenger ferry services along most of the riain rivers, heavy Lreighting acti-vity is largely confined to the southern areas bounded by Chittagong, Khulna, Chalna, and the Dacca area. where inland port facilities are adequate. Extension of inland fleet activities beyond the southern area is limited by the lack of proper port facilities farther inland and. the poor standard of the upper reaches of the waterways. As with other modes of transport, difficulty in import ing spare parts for engines and equipment has seriously limited expansion of country boat mechanization.

Ports

6.22 There are two important sea ports: Chittagong, which handles about 60% of the tonnage, and Chalna anchorage, a lighterage port. There is a severe imbalance between the twfo, with Chittagong having a large excess of imports over exports. and Chalna amaller surplus of exports. Utntil 1947, Chittagong was a small port serving local needs and was overshadowred by Calcutta. Capacity in 1947 was in the neighborhood of 00O000 tons, and there were only four jetties. A rapid expansion followed and capacity is now about h.5 million tons. From 1963/64 to 1968/69 imnorts increasei at 4% per year, just exceeding 4 million tons in 1968/69. Important imports are bulk shipments of petroleum. oils and lubricants (32%). foodgrains (18%), cement (1%, and coal (7%). Muach of the increase in total tonnage has been due to oil products and foodgrains. Since port traffic exceeded 90% of capacity, causing many delays and long queues, an expansion program to construct six new jetties was planned when the political disturbance broke out= - 52 -

6.23 Sixty percent of Chittagong's imports go to Dacca, 15% are used locally, and the remainder go to the northwest regions, Mymensingh and Sylhet. About 30% of the import traffic is handled by BR, 40% by road, and the remainder is shipped by boat or used locally. Exports are brought to Chittagong in the following proportion: rail 35%, road 50%, river 15%. The imbalance between imports and exports causes severe difficulties for BR, as many southbound wagons are empty. This problem could be reduced by specifying that more Government imports of bulk commodities go to Chalna for delivery by the inland water transport fleet.

6.24 Chalna anchorage was established as a jute export center after 1947 to replace the traditional Calcutta outlet. Jute is carried to Chalna from the Dacca area, Khulna and other collection points bv the inland fleet and loaded into ocean-going vessels directly from the barges, which serve as floating warehouses when ships are unavailable0 This traffic results in an unbalanced traffic flow since backhaul movements are very light. In recent years, as congestion threatened Chittagong and the rail and road arteries north of that port, there has been increased emphasis on importing bulk items such 8S foodgrains and conl through Chalna. but the nort still1 operates far below the capacity of both the anchorage and the inland fleet.

6.25 Work is underway to build a permanent port near Chalna at Mongla. UnT. ever- the devhnernpnt of large-s,ale Termanent Ton+ fcnilitie- mnv he premature since the ultimate utility of the location depends on the prospects for econom;callyr edrnc the estuary br and channel of the aisar River to permit vessels of at least 30-32 feet draft to enter freely. At present, dranfts are limited to 25-28 feet -- the same as at Chittagong. The Chalna anchorage provides the logical access route for imports to the provincial districts lying west of +he Brahmapuntra River which are effectivelv separated by the river from the transport services centered on the Chittagong and Dacca arreas. At+.Hth nsme time, t.hrongh +.he ;vin-nnd f_eet-+ (mot^c+off whnich cnnotn negotiate the open-sea passage to Chittagong) Chalna offers direct cheap transport to the central Dacca area, which is the finln or intermediate destination of most import traffic. In 1969/70 Chalna handled about 2.3 million tons of traffic, ner.ly r one-1f of' wlhnich ecr.ido+A of' Jiut erts4. Imports consisted largely of foodgrains, coal and fertilizer.

Telecommunications

6.26 In 1970, there wvere 66,000 telephones installed in Bangladesh provid,4ng & average tel eponk Aden-t- nf 0.0 pOe n--- persns-- -- low level compared to Pakistan (0.4), Korea (0.96), Malaya (1.42), and Tapan (1l). EA g p4erc ent o- the*I4,.+ loephne14 aens'. s and -rural C*C4, 14 e * I 4~.4J5AVL kJJ.- O,LI W-JLV 4 A.JJ0 C. .LL& Ould A... JV JL .LL4 4.L.±0. areas serving about 90% of the population. The densi-ty of manual exchanges evr 1-,i000 peole. Long istq an coral --ia ios estb;tated to be one to every 115.,000 people. Long distance communication between main centbers is by a low capacity VITF system, which was recently strengthened by a high capacity microwave link between Dacca, Chittagong, Khulna and Kushtia. Service at main centers is provided by automatic exchanges, and in smaller centers by manual exchanges. Distribution systems in towns are largely underground, while in rural areas they are by open wire lines. Development plans nave been formulated to continue the rapid expansion of the system. From 1965/66 to 1969/70 telephone installations increased at a compound annual rate of 15Y. Although most of this growth was in urban centers, plans were to increase the number of telephones in rural areas from 2,080 in 1967 to 6,800 in 1972, including 1 ,600 telephones in new rural areas. - 54 -

CHAPTER VII

THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN DETAIL

Total Agriculture Sector Production

7.01 Real income per capita in Bangladesh has increased very little since the mid-sixties (Tks 306 per capita in 1968/69 or US$64 at the official exchange rate. (See Table VII-1). Because of the preponderance of agriculture and its vulnerability to natural disasters, the overall rate of economic growth has been erratic, varying from less than 1% per annum to 8% per annum.

7.02 Agricultural production which grew at an average annual rate of about 1.9% over the last 21 years (1949/50 - 1969/70), has not kept pace with population growth. Performance was especially poor in the fifties when the annual growth rate was a mere 0.3%. Notable acceleration occurred only in the sixties, during which agricultural production increased at an average annual rate of 2.5%.

Food Production

Rice.i/

7.03 In the 1950's, total rice production hardly increased at all; the average annual growth rate was only 0.7% from 1950/51 to 1959/60. This modest increase was due to a slight increase in aus production, while aman and boro remained stagnant. Production ranged from 7.0 to 8.5 million tons a year, except for 19555/6 when it was only 6.4 million tons due to bad weather. The low growth of output, coupled with annual population growth of 2.7% meant a deteriorating food supply situation during the decade.

7.04 In 1960/61 a new record output of 9.5 million tons was reached, due more to good weather than to the modest improvements i,n farming practices made up to that time. From 1962/63 through 1969/70,E/ total rice production increased by about 2.9% per year. Acreage -increased at an average rate of 2.1%, while average yield per acre increased by 0.8% annually. Total production ranged from 8.7 million tons in 1962/63 to a new record of 11.8 million tons in 1969/70.

1/ See Vol. IV, Technical Report No. 7, and Tables VII-3 and VII-h.

2/ The method of compiling and analyzing rice statistics was changed in 1963. Therefore developments during the sixties were analysed using 1962/63 to 196Q/70 data 7.05 The accelerated growth in the 1960's was due to aus and. boro, Acreage of both crops increased by 4.1% and 11.3% a year respectively. There was no trend in aman acreage. Boro yield more than doubled, from less than 12 maunds of clean rice per acre in 1962/63 to almost 24 maunds per acre in 1969/70. Dis- appointingly, aman and aus yields did not exhibit any trend during the decade.

7.06 Even with a respectable 2.9% yearly growth rate in the 1960's, rice production lagged behind food requirements. During that period, estimated population growth was over 3% per year, and per capita income grew between 0.5 and 1.0%per year. With an income elasticity of demand of around 0.6, total demand for rice and other foodgrains would have grown by 3.3 to 3.6% per year. Thus the food, deficit continued to grow during the decade.

Wheat Y

7.07 Other cereals are much less important than rice in the Bangladesh diet, although wheat has become increasingly more important, especially in the cities. Wqheat consumption represented about 7% of total cereal consumption in 1965/66 - 1969/70, and only 3% in the preceeding ten years. Much of the food deficit has been covered by wheat imports which have brought about changes in dietary tastes, particularly in urban areas. The area devoted to wheat is increasing rapidly; in 1960/61 it was about 140,000 acres; in 1969/70 nearly 300,000 acres were recorded..

7.08 With the contribution of new high-yielding varieties and increased use of fertilizers, domestic wheat production about quadrupled.from the beginning of the 1950's to 1969/70. The main growth in production took place in the 1960's. From the latter half of the 1950's to 1966/67, wheat production more than doubled, and increased.some two-thirds again by the end. of the decade. Average yields per acre increased by about 50% over the last ten years. Yet local wheat production, which now stands at about 100,000 tons a year still plays an insignificant role in meeting the food requirements of Bangladesh.

1/ See Table VII-5 Pulses

7.09 The production of pulses, the principal protein crop, has not increased. over the last two decades. Pulses are a traditional part of the diet and are eaten with rice as a kind of sause (dal). Production has stagnated around 300,000 tons a year since the early fifties, because of the lack of an improved technologv to raise yields. Since the nopulation has almost doubled during this period, the failure of pulses output to grow has contributed to a serious deterioration in nrotein sunplv.

Oilseeds

7.10 ThA threA nrincinal oilspAd nrons -- rape, mustard and groundnuts -- account for about 80o of total production. The balance is made up mainly bv sesamm but also by some ,ottnnseed and linspeed. The nrodiuntion of rape and mustard accounted for about half of the total production during these years and groundmnts for about 25n. Total oilseed production has increased.by about one-third. over the last 15 years, reaching slightly over fnnfnnn tnnq diuringr 1967/019 - 196Q/7n- Thp mo+up+ nf ranp andi mqt.sard haq shown no discernible trend during the last two decades; annual production during this period has fluci+tuated around 100,000 tons with the record cron of about 137,000 tons attained in 1968/69. Groundnuts production, however, grew from less tharn 10,000 tons a year in the .mid-19n0's to about 50,000 tons a year in 1968/69. The production of linseed has fluctuated around 10,000 tons a year during the last two deades. The statistics for other minor oilseed crops, sesamum and cottonseed, are available only for the second half of the 196 0ns, a period too shor't fo'r showing anv tr.end in production. Two major conclusions emerge. First, in spite of encouraging grnowth in +.he nprnoeiucti on of cYor1ndI-nI . the gowtn.h rate of' t.otnl oileeed.q production has lagged.behind the population growth rate and thus contributed +ttIe dete-rinrating fonfd .it-natinn Seeond;. roundnuts appear as an oil crop of promise since expansion has been obtained with limited efforts.

Potatoeso Y- Pn+!,4-n+^n 7 111mir Pota+1oe remina- fodro in s of a r in their production during the last two decades. Production nearly tripled. in ab'ot five years f-om.. 'lJ,E,fff,' t 10.,'/6A, -. thnagai trile by the end.of the decade, reaching about 850,000 tons in 1969/70.

Other Vegetables and Fruits

7.12 The total production of vegetables (other than potatoes) and fruits has been. esti..ated at some 2.0-2.2 5 l t iwa a yau dur+ng t-he second hlf1 of the 1960's. Vegetables and.fruit make an essential contribution towards bka'lar.edU ddiet rath-er thaar to ovIeUr '1 calorle Q-11ply' hi rduto >a not kept up with population growth.

1/ Qna N,In VTTT-L6 See Table VII-7. See TbeP I - TTI- 3J/j WJ. Sugar

7.13 Sugarcane production has about doubled over the last two decades, from 3.6 million tons to 7.5 million tons. Nearly all of the increase occurred in the sixties and mostly during the second part of the decade. Sugarcane was grown on almost 500,000 acres in 1969/70. While there are some areas of concentration around sugar mills, the crop is grown all over the country to provide for on-farm consumption either in the form of home- produced gur or at least as chewing cane.!/ According to official statistics, the average yield of sugarcane per acre ranged from 15.0 to 19.5 tons during the last ten years, averaging 18.0 tons over the last five years. However, these figures are questioned by many observers. Sugar consumption -- including all forms of sugar except chewing cane, is estimated to be almost 11 lbs. per capita. When supplies of both gur and white sugar are taken together, however, consumption would probably increase substantially with lowering of prices. Bangladesh would now appear to be approaching sugar self-sufficiency at its prevailing high retail prices. However, imports remain necessary to bridge variations in supply in years of small crops.

Livestock Production-

7.1h Besides pulses, the main protein crop, there are two main sources of animal proteins -- farm livestock and fisheries, which provide about 20% and 80% respectively of total animal proteins currently consumed in Bangladesh. In the absence of statistics on actual livestock production, three types of indirect evidence have to be used; (a) livestock numbers. (b) estimated valties of production; and (c) data on feed production. Livestock numbers provide an appropriate indicator of changes in production. From 1945 to 1960 the cattle population increased from about 14 million to 16 million head. Tn Anril 1971, the RA0/TRRT. Liv.ntnnk Miln.1ion amtimated that there were 18 million head. The total poultry population has seemed to remained fairly constant over the last two decades at arounnd 20 million. The huffalo populntion declined over the same period from 540,000 in 1945 to 450,000 in 1960 and 380000 in 1971 ('Tbnhle VTTTII10)

1/ See Volume IV, Technical Report No. 9 and Table VII-9.

2/ Quite sizeable amounts of sugar are also obtained from two species of palms: h+e sugar palm.m (I oenaI Hi'.ilisI a an.d th.e i ai ,w',l (Borassus flabellifer). Both these species are concentrated in the southern areas, wit+ih lssa +-han 1 000 acrnesa r.o+h o-f +-'.n 'ro of C1" ^p- -A 1.7 acres south of it. The sap is obtained by tapping and is processed into gur, which is rore hig.hly valu,ed locally thanthe ,r made fro.% cane. Yields of gur per acre are higher than with sugarcane and there would appear to ea case to irsntga +hese sources of sugar, especially he sugar palm, which can grow on soils too poor for high yielding arable crops, including su,ga r n-4Je. T

R/(See U^Ivivnex TIV, 1R*r-7cnY e1 'Peport W 121 7.15 There is no evidence of improvement in animal husbandry practices over the last two decades, so the output of livestock products probably increased no faster than livestock numbers. Cattle are kept for dual purposes: for work and for livestock production. The normal diet consists essentially of rice, the cultivation of which crucially depends on draft animals. Thus, cattle products are by-products from draft animals and are incidental to the diet. Perhaps the most important exception to this is milk for children, but detailed information on its share in the diet is not available. Only goats, sheep and poultry are kept exclusively for food production. Because most land must be planted with rice for human consumption, there is little fodder production for cattle. Feed is mostly rice straw, plus grass, weeds and twigs collected or grazed from fields and small patches of wasteland along roads, water courses, and pools. There is no evidence that feed supply for livestock has improved significantly over the years. In fact, feed output is clearly inadequate for the Present livestock population. With increase in livestock population and static food supply, there is evidence that the carcass weight mav have actuallv declined.. Under these kindB of food supply conditions milk and egg output per animal have hardly increased either. Thus, the inevitable inference is that outnut of livepstonk prodmhets grew more slowly than livestock numbers, which in turn, grew more slowly than the number of neonlA. Also. with a dAnlinA in live .asiht nAr nmit- the drnft power situation has deteriorated.

7.16 During the second half of the 1960's. for which livestock nroduction figures are available (Table VII-ll) the value of total meat production increased by onlv about 9% or less than 2% ner vear. Meanwhile; the value of milk production declined somewhat and that of eggs remained about constant. inc,e the relat4ve scarcitv nf these producrts grew in the 960'si their relative prices should have increased rather than declined. Therefore, if these value estimates are attall aIInciirnte, the volinme nf nrodfctlotn probqbly deolinedj 2S has already been suggested. 7.17 The nutritional conclusions emerging from the above are grave. The per capita avaIlabilIty and consupntIon of proteins supplied by livestock products apparently declined during the last two decades. Since the supply nr via -aw 14 aoa+1%,il wina 4-nnAamnti~+Am4 hKaerivviA,+4h +hn AM+a+i4^ n,. +4 a of p S--I -LI V - --- …1. th e deterioratior. over the last two and a half decades must be considered serious.

Fisheries-/

7.18 Bangladesh is provided with large areas of water comprising

and a long coastline in the form of a delta. Consequently, fishing is a -4aor aC+iVi+J - A +'kw prir.cip ' ouceo -4-1 pro4,s- .- the- A4-4

1/ See Volume IV, Technical Report No. 11 Fresh water fish comprises 90% of the total catch and the balance is made up by the marine fish catch (Table VII-12). Towards the end of the 1960's, the total fish catch (in terms of fresh weight) was estimated at over 800,000 tons compared with about 700,000 tons in 1960, an increase of some 2% a year over the sixties. Thus, also fish output laaged behind the population growth rate.

Food ImPorts

7.19 Bangladesh has become increasingly dependent on food imports as a result of its sluggish nroduction nerformance. Foodgrain imports grew from an average of 775,000 tons a year during the first half of the decade to 1;131;000 tons during the second half (Tables VIT-13 and VTT-lh). Mtinh Of the imported grain was procured on concessionary terms from the United States,. Depli-.nte the inc.rea.sP in fonod imnorts. the average annual ner canita foodgrain availability decreased from 359 lbs. to 351 lbs. between the two npriodq fDecresRing pe'r t-arritq fnodi7rqin qvqi1.qhi1itv_ q1thniicah erombinPd with only a slight increase in per capita income, has led to a rise in relative foodgrain prices. The average annnnl innrpiac in the foodgrain wholesale price index from 1965/66 to 1969/70 is estimat+ed at 11.5%; +hp retainin nri;r nfg nevarczp rice incrpeaepr Q9Q.% Tn conmn:priston +.he agnpral wholesale price index rose 6.2% a year and the general consumer price index for industrial workers in Narayanga -- also represen+taive of Tac -- 5.3%.

Nutrition

7.20 The inadequate performance of Bangladesh agriculture over the past several years, an,d tne depressed state of its econoiorr, is reflected in the low nutrition standards prevalent throughout the region. A -nutritio-n survey 1/ completed in 1964 has established that malnutrition affects the health and well-being of at least half of the population. Growing children, especially Of pre-school age, and childbearing women, are the most severely affected. Mortality in the one to four years of age group, a reliable index of malnutrition, is 9%, compared to 0.1% for tne same age group in Europe. Inadequate caloric intake in low-income house- holds is still the major nutritional hazard. Heavy dependence on rice in the diet, scarcity of pulses, fruit, vegetables, meat and milk, and lack of knowledge of the special food needs of pregnant women and growing children further add to the poor nutrition status of the bulk of the population, particularly in rural areas. The resulting deficiencies in protein and vitamins A and D lead to stunted physical and mental growth, and to a host of debilitating and infectious diseases. Towards the end of the decade the malnutrition apparently grew worse due to further deterioration in employment situation and due to relative increase in food prices.

1/ See Volume IX, Technical Report No. 28 -6S

Non-Food Production

Jutez/

7.21 Jute is the principal foreign exchange source and, jointly with processed jute goods, accounted for about 90% of Bangladesh exchange earnings. Moreover, Bangladesh accounts for about two-thirds of world exports of raw jute. The acreage planted to jute declined from about 2 million acres in 1947/48 to about 1.4 million acres in 1960/61 (Table VII-15). Thereafter, the acreage recovered to about 2 million acres in 1965/66 and increased further to almost 2.4 million acres in 1969/70. Production grew from an average of about 6 million bales a year in the early sixties to about 6.6 million bales in the latter half of the decade. Yield per acre grew from about 2.5 bales around 1950 to 3.5 bales in the early sixties, but declined to 2.9 bales in the late sixties. The decrease in yields associated with expanding acreage during the sixties apparently reflects the expansion of jute cultivation to marginal land.

7.22 The increase of jute production during the last two decades was insufficient to maintain Bangladesh's share of world raw jute exports while at the sametime supplying the domestic processing industry with increased quantities of jute. The end result was that Bangladesh's share of world exports of jute and allied fibers declined and that the development of jute substitutes was encouraged. These substitutes now threaten the future of the entire jute industry. Due to the limited supply and relatively high prices of raw jute, manufacturers have increasingly looked to kenaf as a substitute, and Thailand became a main kenaf exporter. Also, synthetic substitutes such as polypropylene became important. To reverse these trends, jute production should be made more efficient and competitive in Bangladesh. This will require integrated policies for the production, trade and processing aspects of the jute industry. 1/

7.23 Bangladesh tea ceased to be an export crop in 1966 owing to rapidly increasing demand in Pakistan, although production increased from 42.25 million lbs. in 1960 to 68 million lbs. in 1970 (see Table VII-16) The acreage expanded from 77,603 to 105,731 over the same period, with yields varving betwieen 650 and 750 lbs per acre. All tea is of lowland tvyes used for blending. The tea industry suffers from a number of problems. Yields are low compared with those obtained in India and Ceylon. This is partly due to the length of the dry season and to the hot weather in March-April. It is also attributable to the old age of many of the tea bushes, which in turn, was related to uncertainty of tenure of tea estates (tea estates are granted

2J See Volume IV, Technical Report No. 8 1/ See Volume IV, Technical Report No. 10 only five-year land leases). The gaps left by dead bushes were generally not filled oy new plantlngs, and tuhl £ndauquawe use of fertilir-s adud pest control did not help towards better yields either.

7.24 In general, tea is not competitive for land with other crops, nor has the tea picking labor any substantial alternative employment opportunities. In view of these factors tea should continue to have a role in the Bangladesh economy although growing conditions ae far from optimum. The Tea Enquiry Committee appointed by the Government of Pakistan in 1966 recommended continuation of the compulsory expansion program, phased rehabilitation of older tea, adoption of improved clltivation practices and use of inputs, modernization of processing and strengthening of planning activities, technical services and credit facilities. The recommendations have yet to be implemented.

Tobacco

7.25 Since about 1950, the acreage of tobacco has ranged between 100,000 and 135,000 acres, averaging 113,000 acres over the last three years (Table VII-17). Over the same period, total production ranged between 50 to 105 million pounds, with an average yield per acre of 550 to 875 pounds. Bangladesh is not quite self-sufficient in tobacco. Much of the production is low quality tobacco for local consumption (nicotiana rustica), but Virginia and burley tobaccos are grown also, mainly in Rangpur and Kushtia districts. In Rangpur, tobacco is air cured but flue curing has been introduced in Kushtia. Tobacco is grown as a rabi crop, and the virginia and burley types are irrigated, mainly by handlift devices in Rangpur. Although much of tobacco cultivation is practiced directly for the cigarette industry, and is thus closely geared to it, the cigarette industry has failed to undertake measures to bring production practices up to modern standards. Under these circumstances, production has not achieved sufficient quality or quantity to encourage exports, although tobacco might have become an export crop, particularly suited for the light soils in the northern part of the Region.

Forestry 7.26 Practically all the 3 million acres officially classified as forest in Bangladesh are owned and managed by the government. The major areas are in Chittagong (Chittagong Hill Tracts), Sylhet and Khulna districts, with smaller areas in Dacca and Mymensingh districts. The Khulna forest comprises the Sunderbans tidal forest. Recorded production of timber increased from about 0.2 million cubic metres (c. 2.1 million cu. ft) in 1949/50 to o.6 million cubic metres (6.6 million cu. ft) in 1959/70 and 1.0 million cubic metres (11.0 million cu. ft) in 1969/70. Additionally, similar amounts of small wood were produced, originally for fuel, but increasingly for pulp and paper production. Large amounts of bamboo are also cut in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, mainly to supply the Chandraghona paper mill. Re- forestation, mainly with teak, has grown from almost nil in the late 1940's - 62 -

to about 20,000 acres per year in the late sixties. The development of the forest indus+ry hhs hbem sufficieAnt to reduce impor+.s of wood nr weod products to insignificant levels, although production is not competitive at world prices.

Modern Farm Inputs

7.27 Bangladesh's transition from a stagnant to a developing agri- -1+11"n 11sa V%nn" MtrlAo +Inn -Mn^Mo ^-P rstnr+ 4"shonoAon^,1M compared to the requirements. Whatever progress there was occurred mostly'

i.. t.l.e sixties,4- parvicular, AL. n4--S6 U .latt eP ha' . f .A. decaSd, as a result of efforts to provide farmers with better seeds, fertilizer, plant

prot Uection, LArd TnLAi.A _ late7AUhe ste t.he4 .main er.gi.^.e o roU4VIh was the low-lift pump program, around which a highly promising rural orran.iza'on strategy was launched. In 1969 and 1970 the suosef Intro- duction of new aus and aman paddy varieties, which are not exclusively dependent on irrigation , promised new, brignter prospects for accelerated agricultural growth.

improved S /

7.208 Lne supply of. ±mproveU seUed IaLs, so I aar, 1e-iUineu belOW reUqulre- ments both in terms of quantity and quality for the major crops. This has particularly affected tihe most important crops such as rice and jute. Barely a start was made in the distribution of improved seeds before the establishment of the Agricultural Developmenb Corporation (ADC) in The early 1960's. Fram 1963/64 through 1968/69 the annual distribution of rice seeds amounted to less tnan 2,000 tons. Only in 1969/70, did rice seed distribution reach 4,400 tons. Of this amount, 2,600 tons were produced on ADC's seed farms and about 1,800 tons were imported. Tne imports consisted entirely of IR-20 variety seeds for the accelerated rice production program of 1970. A thousand tons of rice seed is adequate for about 100,000 acres if transplanting is used and for only about 25,000 acres if broadcast sowing is used. HYV paddy and wheat seed requirements are estimated at over 270,000 tons annually. The experience of cereal producing countries is that the seed industry should aim at refreshing farmers' rice seed on a 5-year cycle. If tnese standards were to be adopted in Bangladesh, the seed industry should aim at an annual output of at least 54,000 tons. In these terms, the distribution of improved paddy seeds to date represents about 8% of requirements.

7.29 ADC has also distributed minor quantities of wheat seeds, ranging from 12,000 to 28,000 maunds a year from 1963i64 through the end of the decade, except for one year when only about 5,500 maunds were distributed to producers (Table VI-1-8). The main contribution of this program has been the

1/ See Volume V, Technical Report No. 13 ,C -

4yi+.A¶t,+io,o .af h4ih.."4elA4,jng 4#xiatvarieties since +i.eya beaw avial

a few years ago. These varieties are better suited to the relatively warm 4 +e.mpe ran2"es evail rym Ari4rv a p%a+ of +.-g v grong season 406- t.he traditional varieties developed essentially for temperate climates. This has nffAed a nanw -otenn.ial for Bangladesh's wheat ctation. The sto-rage and preservation of wheat seed from one season to the next is difficult in B&nev Anczh -- AgwA" fn" %^vAJ+4^. -A h+ - Q_+ _1r ZAP 4 _-_3 .2 ^b-^* *S- *w-- ^-4 a > v~..bcA U y kAJ.-LJ V.L riAXa.L%^UL DIUV .L dependent on the performance of ADC in this field. As in the case of rice, L.ie s-nv%vply 41 V"haft avA- hkas bee. 4- ae-a- ---u.-4-vivo d bot ar. -k **v-.*~. - t ~ U ~ WV~*LLWIU%LQ IJU U±L '.Ud± UL.IL AJ qualitative.

7.30 To date the absence of drying, grading and cleaning facilities, along wihvth e laok of m,.oden- stor-age hoavu made it impossible rorr ADC to store and process large quantities of seeds. Thus, ADO has not been able to handle

.2%& hJ-bs+w.ti UOJa U.L~JW sced%UIL proc-ajJ JLL r.er.tmM U f.o..5. .5 L &L UOI =isw-d%A.A LUVWFJLZ-- r.u * 1111d PfSr5OnIMWesne associated with the seed industry have lacked technical and managerial experience. There is no seed leglatkIon requIring quality control and labelling. The poor quality of seeds is reflected in farmers' unwillingness too pay rl"lrgs'.er leeBs 'or A"" seuds..

7.31 Jute s_ed distribution increased from an average of about 1,000 mnaunds in the period 1960/64 to about 4,000 maunds in 1968/69 and to 8,500 maund's 'e nextg year. TILhese amiounts a agan, rnt from tge standpoint of total production, even if far=er-to-farmer distribution of seeds is taken into account. 1in particular t-he launchi-ng of the acceleratd jute production program in 1969/70 revealed the inadequacy of the jute seed supply. unly traditional varieties are available for Jute, and their improved seeds do not promise any drarmatic yield improvements. As in the case of other seed, quality of improved jute seeds has been far frorn sabis- factory. HIere again, farmers have sho,,m little interest in seeds supplied by ADC. 7.32 Potato production is dependent on regular seed imports because rood quality potato seeds cannot be produced in Bangladesh. Seed imports and the establishment of aDpropriate cold storage facil.ties have led to the development of potato Droduction as a notable minor crop in Bangladesh. The distribution of potato seeds has ranged from 54,C00 maunds to 90,000 Ynaunds a year from 1963/6h through the end of the decade.

**33 ATY' -nplies seeds also for a nunber of other minor crops. The T..'.' -_ _ -Z--.------oe relevant statistics are, however, not available. Yet, it should be noted

- a. .Uiy.a..a. e has.,..b^ ti ~s1.dr+anel fsAr to unnlrl producers with improved varieties and good quality seeds for such crops as oilseeds

.d@Ws p'sesPJ .ULL W5.""A~Lc are essto W._ a balan.ced -;t.- -04-

Fertilizer Use._/

7.34 A nrimarv thrust of the agricultural development program since the late fifties has been the promotion and distribution of chemical fertilizers. As late as the mid-1950ts- ferAilizer use was insignifieAnt (as shown in Table VII-19). The 11,000 tons of ammoniiun sulphate distributed in 1955-56 w2s applied to probablv no more than nabht 2nn-nnn acres (providing about 20 lbs of nitrogen per acre), i.e. to less than one percent of the cultivatRd iand TRV 19q-/61 fertilizer use had gone up sixfold. to 66,000 tons. By this time, roughly half was urea. Thus, compared to 19q5/q6_ nine times as mnrch nlant food was actually used. Byv 1965/66, 130,000 tons were sold, all of high-analysis products, and the 1969/70 con- fllmpnn.inn wasn 975,000n tons, pilu anohieT 16A ons ofPf, 1nhnfe iof mnnia the latter used by the tea estates. No exact information is available ric ia ivz rf' f'vA1P ~ ' r'r.rn, 'hl O'?i1Mnk1v P114Aw ~ ^M __..___he, --- V.f __ _ _V-- P- --- _SV%aJL6_ that the bulk of fertilizer, perhaps 80% or 220,000 tons, was used on boro and transplar.ted anian.rice crops. There are stron ia-tion tha+ f-er tilizer has been applied on virtually all the area of modern irrigation duiy-i-ney the~+I.g boroVl Qonc"s nnq +o some 90000 ar i 1969/7r. VenA if the application rate is estimated very conservatively at 200 lbs/acre, Ahc .t.fn tr.~1rA k.n7A rjonvnIAA htvi,+ Rnl nnnl +nr,c rvf fnv,+;n;4 on,, U±A.LV 0.5. .. v CVv.'. CI,VV .. JJWV IJ..C a.JJL U '.i¼/ VVV'. U¼JL.&I V1. .5 LA. UL.L L L.A .L.. 0 J.|CVL 140,000 tons for other rice crops. Estimating that the application rate or,AtrarA1-4v_' -,slan a nis 0 m 2 m a of __ oIlacre,so C2 vJ1V..0.5.f- LL U~l__ . ~ l .A. ~ L.,4J. / CXU±~ L, OWLJII r.. LI .. J J. UL.L.4 .A VJJ C±LI of its total area wculd have received fertilizer. A small amount of fertilizer is knowr, to go on the broadcast aus crop probabl'y no more than about 25,000 tons, in the most favored areas. Assuming an applica- 4-4on rat-e of-' biaut 100. lbJJs per acre, Uii5s wou'd account for just over 0.5 m acres of this crop, which faces great risks from weather and pests. ILn conclusion,%,-L0IL.LU.UA itV4. U nayiCJ le0v assumnedUI U 1hatULLCU no14 m,ore10.~ ULI"han L .. 1.5)Ild0 mg acres ofL± ri4 ce, or 14% of the total area is fertilized. To put this figure in perspec-

tiveL, while DWBglLdeUsh.L u aLUo u -2 -Lb) of Let.liUze.r for eveyL-. acur of rice it grows, Great Britain, for example, uses about 180 lbs for every acre of arable and rotatviolnal grassland.

7.35 A liberal fertilizer s-ubsidy awno-unting to over half the actual cost has been an important factor in spreading the use of fertilizers. Another basic factor has been the introduction of IRI rice variety IR-8 for the boro season and low-lift pump irrigation. The subsidy plus the new credit have made fertilizer

jl'See volume V, Technical Report No. 14. use very attractive. Furthermore, ADC has made significant progress in setting up a fertilizer distribution network which comprises some 300,000 tons of storage at district and thana levels for wholesale distribution and some 20,000 dealers at union and village levels for retail distribution (Table VII-20). However, the cost of distribution is high: Tks 160 per ton, compared with Rs 100 per ton in Pakistan. Timeliness of supply and credit support also constitute problem areas for further expansion of fertilizer use.

Pest Control1/

736A Pest control was initiated on a large-scale around the mid- 1950's. The Plant Protection Department of the (former) Central Government had been resDonsible for the aerial spraving program. and the Plant Protection Directorate of Bangladesh Ministry of Agriculture for all other plant protection programs. The total area receiving plant protection increased from about 0.6 m acres in 1960/61 to almost 10 m acres in 1969/70. The area receiving plant protection under the Plant Protection Directorate Programs expanded from 0.2 m acres to 8.5 m acres. ThA area receiving plant protAntion by air increased from 0 1 m aGres to 1.3 m acres (Table VII-21).

7.37 A key factor in these developments has been the effort of the Plant. Pr+.ection Tfirin nrqt.p 1-x) Pniiin it.. lf for nn Pmnrip8 q-nri -,iqtninPA plant protection effort and make needed equipment available to farmers (TPaI%e VIIT-22). The. Tire-on_.rna. mnnplipd aq stni nimbher eof' npesticide applicators. However, the procurement of pesticides has been erratic and has hnndicapped the timeliness and adequacy of applica+ions iPn the field. The annual procurement of pesticides remained below 4,000 tons through 1968/69. T.h.e procurem.ent target was 9,900 tons for 1969/70, and apparently a major part of this target was reached. Most of the pesticides are applied to rice. Alo- Sm -ar.t a,- asof jute receive proecton Ofl+4 minor crops, potatoes, sugarcane, and tea benefited from plant protection. The e {3ffect 4,i,ven ea ss s o f tae pes-I a-tco n-tl t 1n r ...nr,v Jn +heL pas--s q,esaiona-Ile. The identification of the type and timing of required applications was not sat.14iisfact4o.ry. Dosages we-e frequentl'L-yS in pr 4. . Ma.- f t4.h a1ppl- cators were inefficient and wasteful. The laxity of the program was due in Ilarge part 4to a free dAist-r:b-u4tion polic-o all--'I -Irotection4--4 n Li.L LOJ. JJ '. .4 1 . U.L4 . LJLJ .LV4LII PkiLL.L l.y 4L.SJ d.L.LL V±d..[i4 jJ.L-U L5'U U±.JII chemicals and equipment.

j See Volume V, Technical Report No. 15. - 66 - Grei tI

7 IS The rnle of cnredit. is to. fAoPpiqq f.mpr t access +tto.technical inputs. Institutional credit to agriculture, all sources combined, was negligible in the 1950s, but grew rapnidly in absolute .erms in +.hp 1960's. Yet, institutional credit has remained as a very minor source of funds to farme-rs.q in cnmnTrT-irlin !i+.h noin-r.inst4+utional TYn fact+. t-he State Bank estimated that, in 1966, institutional credit was only 14% of allagriculturallending while pr_vate sources supplied the balance, 86%. There is no major change in evidence in these proportions since then. The pri-ate credit comes from relatives, friends, and money lenders; the latter demand interest rates commonly ranging from 20 to 50%. Even higher interest rates are not unusual1.

7.39 In the early 1950s, the only institutional sources of agricultural credit in Bangladesh were the Cooperative Provincial Bank and the- Tand Mortgage B-ank(Tzble VII-r-ei% ) -ne Tacavrwas, Grdi intende for JX.,- ±rLJ-aJLEA .1.-JA- %.LC&LJ.LV V L.L.. .JJ , -1 -44 4a..,tj~54 - - L -L- .4-- 451¼1 A.~ ~. relief purposes. The combined maximum amount lent by the two former

tiinS 1Ut UD. U'- JI V a-s av U±Lo5 S LI-ll ' r-,ti- -, ' ' V X n-,V_1Juf.LJX... cient to make an impact on agricultural production. Lending by the 1Provlnclal Cooperatlv M-l-T -F uctatdblo rm,s I. 0 milo ya i ) .LV±LU±~.L \JU-L V ~ CU"L± -~-LLU-ULLA5iA.- - VLA-L5JW ±5.5 . I.L/ L54-A 4 Y'-4 i nlL- the balance was made up by the Mortgage Bank. Towards the end of the decade, total institutional lending to agricultural expanded, reaching Tks 38 million in 1957 largely due to the establishment of two new agricul- 4 u -s'I c_ 4 4 -n S4 AAA 4- 4- -- 4 |;AhAA-._ A-- -1 q 4-ur - nev_ A mentA .- - -~ - - -v4_AI_A;A u' aL U' u± Ut l UDt UU U±Ul iDQ U1±' At. '.L-UAALULL V 55JSJj.IIf ' X .LI 4 V '-H cU1 5l4 created in 1953 and the Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan created in 1958.

17.40 T.hMI 9604 s 'wlnessedrapid1 on in i4-4ns 4-iuton-4 - n in g.4J ±1ic; I 7u. W± uII.t o u ±aJLU U ~JJCLLJ5.LMJ11 .L1LL CL.OUJ. AL U lUJW.L -LUL1iuALngr to agriculture. During the first half of the sixties, the lending fluc-

uatdUuu Leuw'ni abutu U Lr90 m7VIJ.LLiLoL \d. ±Tks 1 r,J,iL-Lion. In 196-5/ u6, lending dropped to Tks 70 million because of the financial stringency causedu by- ithe Wal W-LULI ILLUd.i. Hotwever lendiUnUL IC, rea 7\he Lks90miin over the next year and climbed further to Tks 152 million in 1969/70.

D-ur.LnIg UIh laUst Udeuade, Lthe rUovicLiUaLL UCooperative BanLk btLecamiie 'UI'Ie mostl important single source of agricultural credit. In 1969/70 it provided more than two- thlrds (Tks 115II illion) of the total lendinr, while the Agricultural Development Bank lent Tks 70 million, and the Taccavi Credit System, Tks 30 million. The growth of le-nding by the Provinc.al Coopera- tive Bank occurred during the last three years of the decade only. Lending by the Agricultural Development Bank grew steadily thro-ughout the second half of the decade, while lending under the Taccavi Credit System does not exii- bit any dlscerniole trend. The expansio-n in t'he volumIxe of agrLicultural lending coincides with the expanded use of agricultural inputs during the second half of the decade, such as fertilizers, irrilgatlon water pro-vided b-y pumps, and improved seeds, especially IR-8. Credit has undoubtedly facili- tated the adoption of these improvea practices.

1/ See Volume VII, Technical Report No. 19. - 67 -

Water Development

7.41 Water development efforts have resulted in irrigation, drainage and protection of the following areas:

(Acres)

Irrigation 859,000 Flood protection and drainage 1,080,000 Prevention of saline intrusion 1,600,000

In addition, a number of small schemes and projects throughout the country provide drainage and flood protection. These involve minor drainage, dredging of river beds, river training works and loop cutting as well as embankments on some of the smaller streams. It is readily apparent that the overall impact of water development has been small in relation to the total cultivable area of 22.5 million acres. Two principal agencies have been active in the field of water control ifi Bangladesh. For small-scale irrigation the principal agency has been the Agricultural Development Corporation (ADC) while for large-scale water control (includes flood control and drainage as well as irrigation) the agency has been the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA).

Small-Scale Irrigation

Low-Iift Pumps

7.42 Most of the existing irrigation (700,000 acres) has resulted from the low-lift pump program under which 17,800 pumps had been fielded by mid- 1970, irrigating 640,000 acres of low-lying land during the dry boro season.i/ Where good quality surface water is readily available, low-lift pumps (portable 2-cusec capacity, driven by diesel engines) provide the most economical form of irrigation. The main expansion came during the second half of the 1960's. The principal,,agencies involved in the program were the Thana Irrigation Program (TIP)-e.nd ADC. The former assured the cooperation of farmers and development agencies while the latter supplied the pumps and their operation and maintenance services. According to ADC, the resulting production has averaged about 1 long ton (27 maunds) per acre or 640,000 tons total. High yielding varieties should gradually improve these yields. The pumps obtain water from perennial water courses and sources of water in the boro season and locations suitable for siting of low-lift pumps are limited. On the other hand, by means of engineering works such as permanent primary pumping stations and tidal sluices, the scope for use of low-lift pumps could be greatly increased. This concept (use of low-lift pumps for irrigation distribution) is being followed for Chandpur, a large-scale WAPDA project under construction.

/ The average area irrigated per pump is 39 acres or 19.5 acres per cusec. This low acreage per cusec results from the prevailing pattern of small fragmented landholdings. Without this constraint, it would theoretically be possible to irrigate as much as 100 acres with a 2-cusec pump. ~/ See Volume VI, Technical Report Nio. 18 _ 68 -

Tubewells

7.43 In the coumtry as a whole, there are approximately 1,500 tubewells irrigating the total area of about 116,000 acres0 To date, the total area being served by these tubewells is relatively small, some 50,Q00 acres only.

7.hh The Northwest region is the driest part of the country is the one where flooding is less serious than elsewhere and where most groundwater developments have occurred thus far. These include: first, a 365 "intensive" tubewell project (Thakurgaon) constructed from 1962 to 1966 by WAPDA with West German financial assistance; and second, the project program which has led to the installatiom of some 500 scattered wells since 1969. The Thakurgaon wells are electrically driven, of relatively large capacity (average 3 cusecs) and closely spaced -- 0., miles apart. The ADC wells are of smaller capacity (1.5 to 2 cusecs), non-intensive in the sense that they are dispersed -- minimum spacing 1¼ to 15 miles -- and powered by diesel engines rather than electric motors. The spacing mentioned is considered safe given the Dresent state of knowleclge of the groundwater aauifer. Closer sDacing will be possible in the future as better aquifer information becomes availableo With resnAct to groundwater Axnloration; information developed from the ADC "non-intensive" wells will, at least in the Northwest region where most of this anttivitv i9 nontantrat,ed- nrnvidA AsspntMal data on t.hA anql4fr sqo that, where this is favorable, more closely spaced "intensive" wells can be added .d A

7.L5 ThAe Th.akrgaon tubewell project area cnmmands an area of 72,000 acres of which about 63,000 acres are considered irrigable. After initial +.Wial and erTr'w WAPlA_ wi+Jh AaSi4a+neIn fvrm +.' TnI"CFlAAaeh A,Agiq , for Rural Development (BARD) of Comilla, has built up an effective agricultural exenion' se -c Famers hat ornied cooperative societiesj each based on a 200-acre block of land commanded by a tubewell. The cooperatives have been handning seasonal crerit, poocl1ement of inputs nnd farmers training successfully. The area irrigated from the project wells has increased, from about 6,00 acres cropped in 1965/66 to over 66,000 acres cropped in 1968/69. Yields per acre have roughly doubled with ir.rigation anrd at..increasi-ng- gra-in,"pvlus s. in T .O.-prgaon dnemo a+es the success of the project. The area irrigated in 1970 in a single season is

J2/ Although the matter has not yet become critical, steps need to be taken to 4 4- O.4 4- At.4a nn rn,+ harrn h +..r ,. i ., assure~ ,a-n-L.V- LooL %ro,wa+verdevelopmen+ between the w rnia development agencies (ADC and WAPDA). Coordination is also needed between the groundwater developments of AO an.d the surface=ater developments of WAPDA since some areas in which it is now proposed that tubewells be placed are in zones beig considered for urface=water development. --' . 4- -- - i*n rnno Tqv-,Wl4;ch5Q I QVFA11 QnrCavThn+ 1sQQ thnn now in LdW V cLLUJ U L . acM'J..v* .. half of the irrigable area, it does represent considerable progress in a kxu-ee-yuart11periUoUd 7.146 As'u 4f._ '13 4v+^,s WAPA,a4-w i m1i% ivn Thnninr'ann- there

f .4. fa±.Lu .L.LwAU wL&u .d'.dCC--,evs.- -_ __ are about 1,000 non-intensive ADO wells installed either by ADC itself or by local contractors; thUese have rma e iJ ese v capacity 1.5 to 2.0 cusecs, with cost ranging from Rs 26,000 to 30,000. A relatively ,tensive1 ubewell development at Comilla- consistsof 160 6-inch wells with average capacity of 1.25 cusecs. These were constructed -with dauid-poweere-I r-gs ar,d hav u._uJ.J..±.d brs s The pumps are centrifugal rather than turbine-type which limits lifts to

au LU-4 iuu D.Lui LC±VuUDLU Wt;-L.L OvJdU.LI% -LO C.IJXJAL L.,'-".

Large-Scale water Control

7.47I Th1~ Banglaesh±e iiadLVt a-. £UWUPower DLIUJJvV.LUp,ir1lU £iu y I(I'YMIi was established in 1959 to provide coordinated development of water and power resources. ItL operat±es thilurou Utihre V-4.L1I--IPowVver, lVVJater aLLdI FUloo CUIIIJ.L.UA-- and accounts for about 30% of public sector development expenditures in B,angladesh. The Water and Flood Con.trol Wings over the last ten years have conducted construction work on five major water-control projects-- CUoastUaLL ,,LbaUlN,Ulluents, Uariges -1obLUd.Uak, Br.L apII)Li Utra ILLghIt, I:1IIUiUi1, DIacc- Demra and Chandpur--and one tubewell project, Thakurgaon discussed above.

7.48 These projects (including Chandpur now under construction) have provided flood protecibon for 1.1 million acres, protection froml inndation by saline water for 1.6 million acres and irrigation for less than 0.2 million acres. IT is seen that the program oI WArDA nas up to now been concerned mainly with flood control with relatively little emphasis on irrigation. Ie Coastal Embankments have provided protection against saline-water i±ooaing from oceanic tides. The other projects have prevented flooding from major rivers and irom the neavy monsoon rainfaii; this has enabied farmers to shift from low-yielding broadcast (deepwater) aman to higher-yielding trans- pianted variaties. While benefits from single-purpose flood protection projects have been substantial, experience has shown more emphasis should be given to the irrigation, input programs and coordination with agencies at all levels to accelerate implementation of the projects and to develop organizations and programs for operation and maintenance of project works.

Uanges-Kobadak Project, Kushtia Unit

7.49 The first important large-scale project has been the Ganges-Kobadak- Kushtia project in which the total sum invested since 1959 has been US$80 million total equivalent. The purpose of the project is to provide irrigation and drainage and eliminate flooding in a gross area of 350,000 acres (220,000 acres net). Although the project is providing important benefits, these have fallen short of expectations since irrigation in 1970 amounted to only 70,000 acres of supplementary irrigation of the monsoon-season crop and 10,000 acres od dry-season irrigation. The project has suffered from various technical difficulties and from the fact that the type of irrigation distribution (conventional gravity system) adopted may not be suited to - 7n -

BangLadesh conditions of very anall and fragnented land holdings. Among the technical difficulties encountered are the following: (a) the intake channel of the main pumping station, located on the Ganges River, is subject to heavy siltation, which interferes with operation of the pumps particularly in the dry season when the Ganges River is at low stage; (b) the electric power supply to the main pumping station does not have adequate reliability: (c) because of their design, the main project canals must be operated at full or almost full design capacity regardless of the quantity to be delivered. leading to very high levels of operational waste; (d) turnouts or "project outlets" typically serve 100 to 200 acres and have capacities of from 1 to 2 cusecs. The irrigation canal network is designed for a duty varying from 1 cusec per 100 acres for the larger canals to 2 cusecs per 100 acres for the smaller ones. These capacities are insufficient to provide for farm water requirements (given the existing pattern of landholdings) and as a result, farmers located at a distance fran project outlets have suffered from insufficient or unreliable water sunnlv (e) hecruse of the riiffi r-hl ties in providing a dependable water supply particularly in the dry season, farmers have been reluctant to nlant new varieties nndi to np2 charges for water.

7.50 The technical difficulties described above are by no means insur- mountable. The experience gained on this nronect has, moreover, been utilized to guide planning for future projects. In January 1971, preliminary arrangements were made bv WAPDA for the engagement of an inter-disciplinay team of experts to be supplied by the USBR. The team was to have conducted a reconnaissance of the Droient tn determine o nr.re.nlr the stems that need to be taken. It was visualized that the USBR would provide further assistance following the reconnaissance-. The arrangement.s wpere not followed. through owing to the disturbances.

Brahmaputra Right Embankment

7.51 The Brahmaputra Right Embankment project was constructed during i46)u_A1 This mroiect (for which IDA provided a credi+ of US$5 m.illion) consists of an embankment 135 miles long and 12 feet high (average) and

protection against floods from the Brahmaputra River over 580,000 acres. Inspections of the area have shown that farmers n roughly a third of th area that formerly grew low-yielding broadcast aman rice have shifted in only ovearor two tor hb crI -- eldlng transplanted aman. U- -- a 1___-_ No to highe.~~~~~~~~~~~~~J -- - - r, - r~A JiU~vvv_v , C sampled survey to determine the benefit from the project has not yet been carr-ed out. Foloing-~I.L~J~LJ - Jco.peto LIJJ_LU4AVJ1I-44- inKLLI 1968,-L.7JUU 11&Lmaineac I 1U 1 -hCLjL.1Ut,- 0.1.of WV-- p--osecb--- -was 5 PrqJtU U was transferred from WAPDA to the newly reactivated Irrigation Organization but in tU4LI, qUALP1i1LIU, sUta.Lff d.LIU techiLcUar..d L4 L ILOW-h-W, [[ina-L tenance to date has been negligible. A strengthened maintenance and flood- f_[ghting p 6~ ~" and.LoanL..-Uzat4Uion should beU suet up as sLoon a U Ine next stage in the development of the area would include, besides the setting up f mai ntenance organi zati on, the installIatilon of ilrri gationr fac-'its-I by means of tubewes&lls.W] 6GIIa>VUI Ul U _L.L U I L U L Uy means of tubewells. - 71 -

Dacca-Demra

7.52 An IDA credit of US$1.0 million for Dacca-Demra was provided in

-L7;J-L .IV 1 ± XVUJ0 U P. V .I0 F'IJ . |U.a.VrlJ. i94.U - - v W - 6 - area of 15,000 acres. It was substantially completed in 1967 and benefits are now Dbein obtained ^'hogh as forA Brwp+aRg+Ebr;.t-he ea,l an adequate survey of benefits has yet to be made. The area is adjacent to

Ai 11L CZL1 .LIIL±. UXO.L.L1r,L~Y _.L± rQ V94 VFp9S U..'LA '.JJ U1..I 4. U~4. gradually being taken over for urban and industrial development--about a 4 foUUJth U11Us lar. The1 p1VJeCt%U Ls OVJ.V1=LL Ljy a. siL0 g pHle i±piLnl1 stauion V.hJ.A.,1ich is, dual-purpose for supply of irrigation water as well as for evacuation of excess drainage water- from rainfall during the mLonsoon season. though its area is small, the project provides a good opportunity; first, for a

1.Lontrt-iiU.~bon1de,,nbro of riiuo.uu-odr arciuug1r± L.UVeU1t --udrULIUO.L contr-olleduLL_LJ±±OU waeWCLUtOL kLUX1U.±U±_UL1LovtosanA '11u second, as a means of estimating drainage and water requirements.

Chandpur

7.53 In 1963, IDA granted a credit (39-PAK) of US$9.0 million for the Chandpur project, a combined irrigation and flood protection scheme covering 127,000Y/acres. The irrigation features were dropped in late 1965 and the credit reduced to US$5.25 million. Work proceeded on the flood control features but these too were halted early in 1967 and the remaining proceeds of the credit were used to engage new consultants (in 1968) to assist in the preparation of a revised project which would restore irrigation as a primary feature of the project but on a substantially modified basis as compared with the original project. In April 1970, IDA granted a credit (184-PAK) of US$13.0 million to assist in financing completion of the Chandpur project, as revised. 7.54 The major works of the project include a peripheral embankment 60 miles long, from 10 to 15 feet high and with a crest width of 14 feet (wide enough for vehicular traffic); an irrigation cum drainage pumping station with 6 units having a combined capacity of 1,135 cusecs; an outlet regulator or tidal sluice (for drainage) containing four 30-foot wide by 15-foot high gates; and 2 navigation locks, one adjacent to the pumping station and one to the outlet regulator, each 100 feet long and 20 feet wide. Thirty-one miles of the peripheral embankment have been completed to date. Contracts were awarded in early 1970 for the pumping station and outlet regulator and for the mechanical and electrical equipment involved; these structures govern the overall construction schedule and were originally to be completed by the end of 1972. However, owing to the civil disturbances that began March 1971, completion will be delayed by at least two years.

7.55 The fact that the Chandpur project area is already densely popu- lated and that the population will continue to rise presents a problem which is not limited to the Chandpur area and is typical of flangladesh generally. 1/ Later changed to 140,000 acres gross (75,000 acres net). - 72 -

There will be continued pressure on the land not only for agricultural production but also for additional rural housing and for roads. These problems which have no easy solution will require further investigations and long-range planning. The planning concepts involved in the Chandpur project represent nevertheless an important step forward. Successful and rapid implementation of the Chandpur project has crucial importance since it will assist in bringing to light problems still requiring solution with respect to other projects similar to Chandpur, e.g. fisheries, embank- rment, siting and location, agricultural suPporting services, etc.

7.56 The establishment of a project-implementing o,rganization, the responsibility for which the Government has assigned to the Ministry of Agriculture, is highly important to the Chandpur project. This organization will include personnel for agricultural extension, for plant protection, for installation, operation and maintenance of pumps, and for assistance to cooperatives. All such personnel are being deputed from existing government agencies and are under the control and supervision of a Project Director appointed by the Minister of Agriculture. Action to get this organization underway has been slow and indecisive. Consideration may therefore have to be given to set up an integrated project authority covering all aspects of the project under a single agency.

Coastal Embankment Project

7.57 The Coastal Embankment Project consists of a system of dikes and dirainage luices t.o prott lanri in the coastal area frorn flnneing hy saline water during normal high tides. The project was launched in 1960 in respnse to demnnanQ for nrotnc+.on gnainsqsaline wnatr int.ruiqon ontn farm lands and as a means of reducing unemployment (the embankments have been buil+. enti+ r hy hand methods). To dnte more than 1,900 miles of embankment have been completed, protecting 1.6 million acres. Protection wnas- scedled for a total of 1_. million (81 pnn11eri hy .Tlnn 1972. An early. start is planned to complete 9 polders protecting an additional 0. million racr t.hii ruscmpln+etng Phacn T orb +.he embankmern+. ornorc+. PhasceP II of the project (16 polders, 0.7 million acres) is scheduled for later devrelop.ment and requires feasibility studies beforeronstructJon is initiated. Approximately half of the area in Phase II polders are in fresh water zones.

7X58 An expenditure of about Tks 1,000 million already has been made on h roet The +to+tl cost oP Phase T is est- mated at Tks' -1 9A6. mil= lion including Tks 31 million foreign exchange and the cost of Phase II at TIks 380 milllion includiJng Tk~s '_;11 milo oeg xhne Phase T ofP the project was justified on the basis of an estimated average increase in yield of 0.m tons ok paddy per acre, transporntatnd bunemplot (per-ehalef .n ds the embanlment), cyclone damage reduction, and unemploylment relief. - 73 -

7.59 Although the embankments afford protection against damage by many cyclone storm surges they are not effective in cases of surges of great magnitude such as occurred in November 1970. This cyclone resulted in over- tonni npr of emhbnkments in mqnv nl qf-P rXAnqi na washoit..q and severe erosi-i on. Approximately 38 miles of embankment were completely destroyed and 243 miles recieved severe to mild Hamag. R.estoration i now under wnyo

7.60 Tn N~mnhe" 1970, A ank m Iovn rview.ed +hae Caa Project to prepare guidelines for further development and to prepare terms of referenee for additional studies needed for such developmPent. It foun,I" that the benefits now being realized, resulting from protection against salt water intrusion,i ere only a fraction of the full potential of the land. To realize this full potential, it is necessary to concentrate on improvement of water management prnactices agricultural support serv and rural in structure. Some examples of water management possibilities which should be emrnlored are introuction of freh water inrto the polders, evn of natural rainfall and use of groundwater. Agricultural support services would emphasize modern agricul+.nral in.puts such as improved seed varieties, fertilizer and pesticides. Credit, marketing, institutional arrangements, training, better commi'inication arnd coordnation among agencies at all levels also are essential in obtaining maximum benefits from the project.

Conclusions

7.61 In sum, with the exception of the low-lift pump program and the Coastal Embanlcment program, past water development hss m[eud a rat1her sLUl- contribution to agricultural output. Lessons learnt should be important in accelerating effective water development in the 1Utwe. Th,e following conclusions emerge: (a) elimination of flooding in most cases must be accompanied by provision of irrigation,which should have a higher priority; (b) gravity irrigation by conventional canal systems is difficult to implement in most parts of the country because of the small inadnoidings and the intensity of land use. W4here water is available, low-lift pumping is the most economical and desirable procedure; (c) irrigation shouid be accorrpar-Lied by effective agricultural input programs; (d) coordination of activities is needed between agencies at all levels and involve farmers' participation; (e) adequate consideration must be given to other water development functions such as fisheries and navigation; and , (f) additional training and staffing is needed to carry out effective maintenance and flood fighting.

7.62 The disappointing performance in parts of the water control program to date reflects overlooked opportunities attributable to insufficient analysis of the water development opportunities. First of all, the analysis basic to past programs largely overlooked the need for gradual implementation of water control including flood protection, drainage and irrigation; the noed to proceed from easy areas tQwards more difficult ones; and from the coast upwards to assure drainage outlets.

1/ Proposals for Further Development of the Coastal Embankment Area (IBRD, April 23, 1971). - 74 -

Second, there has been a notable failure to provide adequate engineering services for the Rural Works Program which is ideally suited for scattered. gradual drainage/flood control/irrigation developments. The organizational arrangements to have IWAPDA to provide engineering services for Rural IWorks had been worked. out by mid-1960's but was not put into effect on adequate scope. In the absence of adequate engineering planning, the Rural Works Program proceeded in a somewhat haphazard.manner in providing drainage works, embankments, irrigation channels and roads and was not able to integrate them to provide better water control for entire minor drainage basins. Nor was the Program able to integrate the developments in minor basins to required water control systems for large basins and, thus, achieve a significant regional impact. Also, the approach to these water developments did not adeauately appreciate that there were in existence many nearly ready man-made polders bounded by already existing road embankments, railway embankments or flood control embankments, and that the variations in natural topography offered many opportunities to utilize existing ridges for improved water control by the construction of relatively modest works. Finally, there was no systematic search for drainage outlets essential for imnroved drainage. This, in turn, resulted. in giving inadequate attention to opportunittes t-o uitilize tidal f'lictuations for drainage with chnnel inrovements and. with construction of regulators.

7.63 Regarding irrigation opportunities, many potential water transfer voaa".+I,w 4 == auc as hiI 4 h+eAh.r thos verora cor.- fluence into the southwest region and from Padma or Meghna to the southeast region == were not a,llo4+ied aA.lugh su&ch traruers may be acno-l4shed largely by excavation of existing channels rather than by building new major link Canals and by bulLding relatively mwdest reJ"'ators and. ppirig r.t 'A- lations at most.

Agricultural Institutions

7.64 By 1960, institution building for agriculture in Bangladesh had, had a long history. Efforts to provide agricultural credit go as far back as the 1880 s, agricultural research and cooperatives date back to the first decade of this century and the establishment of the extension service to the year 1914. In the 1950ts the extension system gained-its present organizational setup with one agricultural assistant in each union, agricultural officers - 75 -

in e nc-th +.Ina as we l -l asQ in o rea'h rli Q+sric t+ * mean no .Ter iiyn,rn+ a- 's - 4-- strengthen the agricultural credit system; the Plant Protection Service AADrc-14--l Develo,,nt Bnk, I.TATYnA. and B gladeslh Academy for Rbur_a -IDeve_ lopment (BARD) were established; and a community development program was put into prac- Several --I' s measures took p during the -- last,. years of the decade and were followed up further measures in the early years _of the, 190's1

BADC 7.65 The ADC was established in 1962 in response to the recommendation of the Food and Agriculture Commission to assure expeditious distribution of agricultural inputs as well as to carry out various development functions in agriculture. Other organizational changes were undertaken in the 1960's. The Rural Works Program was started in 1962, the Thana Training Center Program in 1963, the Thana Irrigation Program on a countrywide scale in 1967/68, and the concept of the Integrated Rural Development Program comprising all BARD pioneered programs introduced towards the end of the decade. A proposal for its countrywide application was made in 1970. The Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) was established in 1970.

7.66 By the end of the decade ADC had built a fertilizer distribution network and launched a successful low-lift pump irrigation program. However, the full potential of these nro¢rams has not been obtained due to poor maintenance practices and. inadequate in-service training policies. As noted already. BADC's nerformance in seed.sunnlv has been disannointing both in terms of quality and quantities of seeds supplied.. Other BADC schemes in the field of mechanization and. of farming estates have failed due to inadequate project selection and poor management. BIWAPDA

7.67 The Banglad.esh Water and Power Development Authority (BWAPDA) was established in 1959. Its lWater and Flood Control Wings have worked. on the construction of five major water-control projects -- Coastal Embankments, Ganges-Kobadak. Brahmaputra Right Embankment. Dnr'a-Demra and Ghandnur (under construction) -- and one tubewell project, Thakurgaon. In addition they have nrovided. a mnber of smaller flood nrotection and drainage progra.ms and projects throughout the country. Thus far, the accomplishments of BWAPDA have been oriented 1,re.1v to flond cnnt.rnl nnd drninnag with ralntAiveiv disappointing results. In total about 2.8 million acres have been provided. comnlete or partial nrotection.from uplqnd nnd ocenn flooding= On the other hand, less than 0.2 million acres are irrigated by BWAPDA projects. The inadequate performvince in irrigation is partlvy due to lack of experience with irrigation systems adapted to small land holdings and high population densities. - 76 -

I7,68w BtWF1A neeas to give a nigner priority to irrigation DOth witn ano without flood protection. It also needs to be more closely geared to the needs of grassroots rural institutions--the basic engineering needs of which have been neglected to allow infusion of considerable technical skills into the planning of relatively large, long-term and slow-yielding water control schemes (e.g. Brahmaputra, Ganges and.Tista barrages). Closer coordination between BWAPDA and other agencies is needed. to insure that water control facilities meet the needs of the farmers and are utilized by them. In this connection, more emphasis must be given to adequate project preparation and to a more effective operation, maintenance and.flood fighting organization. Additional training is also needed. at all levels to improve implementation capacity.

Credit

7.69 In agricultural credit, the principal changes in the 1960's were the expansion in the volume of operations rather than improvements in operating efficiency or in the organizational setup. The Agricultural Development Bank has had, a relatively good recovery record but it has lent to very few.farmers. The cooperative credit started. to reach increased. number of farmers towards the end of the decade but with the exception of Comilla type cooperatives it has had a very unsatisfactory recovery record.. Other government credit schemes (taccavi) have been so poorly administered that they are widely regarded as welfare operations.

Research

i.70 Cooperation with the International Rice Research Institute started. in 1965 with a joint variety testing program. BRRI was established in 1970 and is a semi-autonomous institute with strong links with IRRI in the Philippines. With assistance from international agencies, BRRI has built modern laboratories and offices in Joydephur near Dacca where it has some 200 acres of land for experiments.

7.71 BRRI's intensive variety testine Drogram has identified. a numehr of superior varieties which now form an impressive pipeline. Some of them have alreddy played their part in increasing rice nroduction (TR-8); others hold. dramatic promises for future expansion of aus and.aman crops. Of these, IR-20 has already been released and after its second season (summrer 1971) has become well-established. IR-442 shows promise for areas flooded, up to five feet since it clongates with risine water. BRRI's nerformane. shows that proper leadership, continuity and. attraction of good local staff, link with international research and adeauate funding can produce outstandina results quickly. 7.72 Various other measures were undertaken in tne 960;os to strengthen research for jute, sugarcane and tea. Yet with the exception of rice research by BRRI, the results of these efforts to date have been disappointing. Even such an old and well-established organization as Jute Research institute has produced negligible results to date.

Extension

7.73 Since the latter half of the 1960's there has been a dramatic improvements package available to the extension services only for boro rice. There has been only very modest technological improvement available for other important crops, such as aus and aman rice crops, and jute. The general approach to extension has been to get workers as close as possible to the village to demonstrate agricultural techniques to farmers. There were about 6,500 extension workers by the late sixties. Lack of trained personnel willing to undertake extension work has been the main problem. While in-service training institutes giving six-month to one- year courses have been established they have not been very successful. Without a good education or a direct experience of agriculture, the extension worker has had limited effectiveness. He has often proven less capable than local farmers. As a result, demonstration plots have been very ineffective instruments of technological diffusion.

7.74 A repercussion of the limited performance capacity of the extension service was that BWAPDA was authorized by the Government to set up an extension and. agriculture division (Land and Water Use Division) in the early 1960's to assure the fullest possible utilization of irrigation and. flood protection projects. Later on, separate project agricultural services have been included in projects such as Chandpur Irrigation Project and BADC Tabewell Project.

Rural Organizain

7.7q In order to succeed. agricultural development programa must be rooted on a set of rural institutions which can support technological innovation. Banzladesh is fortunate. in that during the 1960's, the foundations for aound. rural institutions began to emerge. Based on models suggested by the Bangladesh Acadnmv for Rural Development at Comilla (BARD) an approach, whose key innovative aspect was a decentralized organizational structure which permitted effective execution of uidnlv scattered. small development prosects was developed.. In the Bingladesh setting of inmall frag-mented farms and rural underemployment, it is difficult to overstress the importance of this approach which fully recognizes and attempts to ease prevailing institutional constraints to development programs. - to -

7.76 A focal point of the rural development app-roach p,oneered a' Comilla is the thana training and development center which was introduced throughout the ,413thanas (administratiive unfits) of tu-e co-arL± between 1962 and 1963. The thana is an effective administrative unit for imple- menrtation of rural developmnent. It is sufficiently large to make plann-ng and implementing development projects technically efficient; it is important enough that the Goverrnment is wi'ing to assign competent departmental representatives to it; and it is small enough to permit com maun-ication between ary thara citizen anu the thana headquarters, as well as coordination between the departmental representatives and village leaders in the thana council. As a result local governmert has ceased to be merely a seat for the police and for the taxation administrators; it has become the focal point of rural develop-ment.

7.77 So far rural development activities have been centered on three maJor programs; (a) the Rural Works Program; (b) the Thana Irrigation Program; and (c) the Integrated Rural Levelopment Program (the system of Thana Central Cooperatives). The first two provide the infrastructure to develop the production capacity of the land., the third. helps release the farmer from the money lender and. enables him to adopt mDdern farming techniques. More importantly, these programs provide an institutional framework within which the rural population formulate development proposals, participate in planning and to a large extent execute them. Local officials control expenditures and provide technical services including training for farmers and supplies of agricultural inputs. Through the thana cooperatives, farmers' savings supplemented by government funds, provide loans, to those those previously ignored by institutional credit. The effect of this partnership at the local level has been to provide the foundations of a decentralized organizational system which is essential if the agricultural inputs which constitute the new technology are to reach the typically small Bangladesh farmer.

P.ura vw zlworProgno ;tyX

7.70 Under the Rural Wborks Program, which was introduced on a countrywide basis in 1962, union councils (the lowest level of local government averaging about 10 sq. miles in area) and thana councils (which usually cover about 10 Unions) were allocated annual budgets, within broader five- year plans.

7*79 Formulation of proposals for works to be included in the programs were in the first instance on the initiative of the rural population via their union coLncil representatives. IWithin the overall allocations, proposals, for local roads, bridges, culverts, embankments, drainage canals egc. were discussed and consolidated at Union level. Plans were then submitted to

Se Volume VI,Tehnical Report No. 17 - 79 -

thana councils for similar aggregating into thana plans together with proposals for works and buildings initiated by the thana council itself; these plans were then sent to the district council for approval. Implementation of rural works programs was carried out by local project committees under force account or by local contractors under the general guidance of thana council super- visors. Great emphasis was given to employment creation with the use of labor intensive techniques being encouraged wherever practicable,

7.80 The results of this program have been impressive. Total Rural Works Program expenditures during 1962-67 were Tks.710 million (US$149 million) of which some three-quarters went into road. building and maintenance; in consequence rural transportation costs are estimated to have fallen by 30%- 50% in the beneficiary areas and. land values adjacent to these roads to have risen by 154% (as compared, with 4h% in other land values). With access to may secondary markets now open, exclusive sales of rice to itinerant traders are estimated to have fallen from 74% of all farmers to only 18%, with a concomitant increase in the proportion of farmers marketing at least part of their crop (from 36% to 57%) as well as in the proportion growing cash crops other than rice and jute. Expenditures on drainage (5% of the total) brought water-logged land into production which reportedly increased. total agricultural output by 3.5%, and increased the value of the land. itself by an average of around 300%. Another 5% of RWP funds went for embankment construction; though affecting only 6.2% of the land, annual savings from the protection of these embankments have been estimated. atTks,100 million. The remaining 15, of RWP expenditure went for the construction of buildings such as training facilities and thana headquarters.

7.81 In the process the Rural Wdorks Program created. 866,000 man-years of employment in a five-year period, or an average of 173,200 man-years of employment annually. The employment opportunities provided. were in the slack agricultural season. Between 1263 and. 1967 the program employed, from 600,000 to 1 million men annually for periods varying from two weeks to four months. The increase in average income of those employed under the RWP was about Tks.168 (Tks.2 a day for 84 working days in the slack season), an important addition for individuals whose per capita incomes are about Tks.200 per year. Works Program, 1962-68

New Repair 1. Roads (miles) UnvrA a"-Pa-eA OWN ,,'60 Dirt 20,925 115,210

2. Eimbankents (miles) 3,740 79595 3. Drainage and Irrigation C'tslsI (w.41e., 90312i7~JJ 7,7LI

4 4.4@ Cr.w M* A. - B5l4"u6on. 1A49 s 7g,58 ,~ Thana Irrigation Program (TIP);/

7.82 A logical extension of the Rural Works Program, viz., a program aimed more directly at farm operators, was tested during 1966 and 1967 and emerged.in 1967-68 season as the Thana Irrigation Program (TIP) which zgain featured decentralized, village level decision-making. Irrigation is an economic proposition for most farmers, but few individuals can afford a low-lift pump (or tubewell). Since the average farm in Bangladesh has only 3.1 acres under cultivation, since a high proportion of the farms have considerably less than the average and finally since this acreage is divided into numerous plots, irrigation is only a sound investment for a typical cultivator if he car cooperate with others.

7.83 with the prospect of boro season water as a focus, user groups were organized around the pumps and tubewells (so far however, experience has been largely with low-lift pumps). in order to insure that water was provided only where it met a felt need, groups were formed principally on the initiative of the local council member or farmers themselves. The procedures followed were broadly similar to those for the rural works program although provision was made for a technical review of thana irrigation plans at district level by the Bangaldesh Water and Power Development Authority (BWqAPDA). In fact since the 1967-6a season the Rural lWorks Program and the TIana Irrigation Program have been combined as the Expanded. Works Program.

7.84 Since irrigation creates additional land for cultivation, the TIP created in 1968-69 over 25 million man-days (or 80,000 man-year) new agricultural employment. These employment opportunities will grow as rural development programs, including projects to provide irrigation, expand. The components of the Expanded Works Program thus succeeded in mobilizing part of the countryts grossly under- employed, labor resources and converting them into the physical infrastructure necessary for more rapid development in the countryside. The Thana Irrigation Program roughly doubled the total number of low-lift pumps utilized in Bangladesh during its first year of operation: in 1968-69 about 10,900 pumps were operated, and irrigated 425,000 acres; as a result of the expanded. area under irrigation, boro rice production increased from about 1.1 million tons of cleaned rice in 1967-68 to about 1.6 million tons in 1968-69; an increase of 500,000 tons or 45, over the previous boro seasons. In short. the management annaratus of these programs -- with their stress on decentralized, village level planning and execution of small nrojects -- has already nroven itself as a stepn toward rapid.development of the rural infrastructure and associated institutions.

Cooperatives

7.85 With this demonstration of what can be done in managing civil works and irrigation of a tvne and on a scilA which directly benefits small- holders (and landless), the Academy for Rural Development began examining

1/ See Volume VI, Technical Report No. 18 ways of e _tAndinotheir efforts to comple-mntary tnnpits- Agai the in.tenttion being to assist the poorer farmers, who constitute four-fifths of the rural

7.B6 A rural cooperative credit program again based, on the thanna was formulated. and.tested. for several years in Comilla district. The program promotes the formulation of primnar cooperative groups at the village lev-el, such as groups formed.to obtain a pump or tubewell, which are then affiliated. tn the TGdCA. -Again the fmall-krmeAr is encnuraged to h&hp hImqelVby CDrn1rgino shares and.d.epositing compulsory savings, which then form the cooperatives basic c-pital, Lnan capital has been provided bry theW St-+ten Barb thrs tghe Provincial Cooperative Bank. In addition the Government has provided some reeurring and, non-recurri-g costs for an i4itial pero +o help +th 'J''A 1T through the first few years of their life. Supervised,short-term credit and. a small aontvt of medium +trmcredits, ha.e so far been exterid.- to small farmers via the village cooperatives at a rate of interest of 153%.

7.87 For the first time the typical "poor" farmer has had the prospect of obtaining institutional credit which was i. practice pre-iously only availab-1e to larger landholders. A program to allow him to purchase the off-farm inputs of the newoj technolomr, which right otherw.-ise -be vailable only to the larger farmers with liquid resources, has thus been instituted. Some Cooperatives plsn to~ ev4 e.nd ther act_6itie i,to Other field such as rketing of inputs (principally fertilizers) and.processing (initially rice milling).

Evaluation

7.88 The above rural development programs have not been without their -1shotc.,no - -I . Tbe Rtural±LLJ. .J. liWorksAVJ£" Program-.IL 'hddAJ LJU beer.LJC±JVU4 los- JI'sLL (~fconnection J .e(Lf -wish J. the grass roots throughout the mid. and late 1960 s. Union council members, not-i^GnTrg e-e=llec"oin, cease'. lomU`.n . Lanianr.erest iL t1he programn. 'Lucal initiatives became progressively less the basis for annual programs; in part, th;s led.to undue emphasis on roads to0the detrimentr, of drainage investmen'ts. The government became weaker and disillusioned and its directives were progres- siivlyrJi.ore. Al the thana irrigation progam 'a' mIIndai.Led its grass roots character, largely because each individual request for a pump or tubewell represents a fresh initiative by a gro-up of farmers, the area irrigated per pump had shown a tendency to decline and their operation has been aa .Iw 4iw.4 -erere*-J Dpa4"ef b-i.. .. VIi.*LOck o a proper aziunteance~ and baacckup organization. Although the program was the first of its kind to secure payment for irrigation water in Bangladesh some grcups had been allowed to become lax in their payment of pump rentals. Training classes conducted for model farmers have been poor and associated visual aids absent;: further the -,4raditional extension system made up of union-based agricultural assistants under the - 82 -

direction of the Ministry of Agriculture has lacked properly trained personnel. Similar problems were facing the TCCA's: standardized operational procedures did not exist; the lack of training of TCCA officers resulted in poor supervision of loans: there were conflicts between TCCA officers and personnel of other departments at the thana level, partly because the division of responsibilities had remained poorly defined; and the opposition of money lenders and-the older multipurpose cooperatives dominated by the larger landholders had made loan administration difficult. In large part. the difficulties reflected lack of trained manpower.

7.89 Some of these shortcomings are to be expected with pioneering programs which attempt to make use nf innovaitive t i * building a rural infrastructure and its associated institutions. Yet, the success of the developmen.t strateg proposed in this S+udy depends in large part on the ability of adapted rural institutions to both support and service the "new" inpnut packages and to handle +he increased mnrketaeh1 surplus.

7.90 The central Pffornt of the rural development programn in the futuare will be training aimed to improve local capabilities and expertise to meet development problems; exampnles are: the trainin.g of cooperat1iveP nprsornnepl in rural credit organization and accounting principles; the training of thana agr--i1t+1o-nfflcrs,-o and subsequently I.TPr lpvel Pv+exn.sion personnel (about half of whom are now untrained and thus of doubtful effectiveness); the upgrading of thana irrigation officials to understand ar.d cope with sirnple problems of irrigation design; and the training of thana technical officers 7%0er1on1cb -Por r-,A +ons,rn-wi-ron-nrA r'i -w1 cn.nv on,nj"v -.qnv ± 'J ±71VA' _VJ*ViVa~ 'J'JUL4UXIAsV± V'J | _ I v _\-LA~ 'J ' a

7.91 In addition to improving the capabilities of the officers and staff of the rural institutions, attention will have to be given to strengthening 4-e central1 gove.-mmenta-l institutions;_ se-h+ gudlre,sriear. ae 1)11e L0 Ill 0.1 IJV . J OI.LI 1).1 .L I. ) UU. )-~1Ak MUI.) ML L' - U..&Jh, .JJ-. -V - to the local needs. Examples of such actions are as follows: the establish- r,,entu of artnefiln loVW-'wt p,, andl., bwel mantnac orgaization within the Agricultural Development Corporation (ADC); streamlining the ADC input

Ud.st riLbULU11 progr-a.,,, 0e.g. tUo lnsure 4that1 fetU;L.LzIer g,oJUVVWs (trgUJ.L sh,e d1s)~Q are located and constructed in the area in which they will be most needed; ensuring that, uthe wa,,e- andu ruwr Die Ve.LUpr,,entI±I JiUtUhL-i±1y has sLL.L.LU.Lffc1en Uc.apU.L- lity to evaluate thana irrigation plans from a technical point of view, a function it has so far been unable to execute; the strengt,hening of the Minist-y of Agriculture to ensure that its officers in the field have an adequate supply of up-to-date extension materials associated with the new tec-hnolo0ry. TI s in turn requires the continued exchange of information between the extension service and the various agricultural research instltutions; the es,ablishmb1,ent of a strong technical staff charged with the supervision of rural works programs; and the strengtnhening oI the Rural Development Board (or whichever organization ultimately assumes responsibility for the rural cooperatives) to enable it. to set down and enforce guidelines for the rapid but sound establishment and development of rural credit institutions. Uoncl-us-ions fromi 'nstiut-Lg-UU'-iorlaL Det:ve:lopments-I; to Dateut

I *.'f ±iAlu U.JLUUIILL1.id.LL.U I_L.± U IItVJL.ULJ.J.Y L.L. III ULIV d.J1VVV that no self-sustained momentum for institutional improvements has been generateu in piute VI ULJt _L UII-±LI.LULy1 VU ±11SUJ.LUL.LUII U4_LUA.I4 Cd.LV.LL.L^J The reasons for this are several. First of all, there has been a lack of trained personrxel attributable to inadeq-uate educational base i. ite Bangladesh territory. This has not been made good by adequate in-service UL-a.LnILIJ prIogramsU. TILI 1inUequaLLUtdL.LcUIr.Ig Vo oIsVt Li UnLUtiJtIo andIU associated remuneration policies, which have not been conducive to rLa,ai_Lini_g Lth cUU,LtIU_LUY U.L and in iLVe oLU.i pesLorIeUl, LheV fur-ther aggravated the situation. From the standpoint of employees, there has ueen an 'LsufIcLeLLJ.LUIU ±IItJibVe to! seJ-JrveLrent.

.7 024 ml - - -- - ~_ , ,*-2 t,* ~ -- I -.e.0 i1iu uUUJJeLaIU.±VU Ut::V±U_VIULILUb LVUdL LLt~ILgIIi".,LrIL.I[Iitv-uOl4s.LLi.Lyi perhaps than any other development the lagging self-sustained momentum in institution build--up. The cooperatives ha-ve over six decades of history behind them in Bangladesh - only slightly less than in Central and, Northern Europe for exam-nple. Yet the cooperatives stiI depend essentiailly on public support in Bangladesh and are, therefore, considered a part of the public sector in contrast to developmfient inl parts of Europe referred to, where cooperatives have developed into strong, self-supporting business eu ey-pr-ises which are competitive with private business and have their own momentum of growth and self-improvement. Once again, these contrasting developments can be explained only in terms of contrasting developments in educational base.

7-94 Finally, the disappointing results of many organizational reforms carried out to date suggest that even in future very little can be accomplished with new reforms if they are not backed up by strong training, education and personnel development programs. 01 - UL± -

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ADnr7IWT(TATQC:ID MnTWD?,TT7 T?Jn AIlDTnm tPTTD' %.v..LJ . h *J. La JJ.J JL.A LJ VU.LV UV

Rice V

,raditi'onal Technolomx

8.01 Bangladesh rice production tecMnolog3 nas long been dominated by varieties with limited capacity to utilize fertilizer efficiently. Tradi- tional varieties in Bangladesh and in most other areas in Asia are relatively tall, weak-stemmed plants. When additional units of nitrogen are applied, heavier heads cause the plants to fall down or lodge. For this reason, farmers could only use very limited quantities of fertilizer thus limiting potential yield improvements and inhibiting risk-taking. Tne end result has been that culitvation tecbnology used on traditional varieties (including the socalled "improved:: varieties) remained largely uncnanged for decades if not centuries. Thus, increased rice output in Bangladesh remained dependent on major modification in the crop environment through water control, i.e., irrigation and drainage to permit increased cropping intensities and/or a shift from broadcasting to transplanting techniques. Where proper incentives existed, increased plant population densities, better cultural practices (such as more careful weeding) and some fertilizer applications did accompany improved water control. However, progress was slow and highly localized.

New Technology

8.02 The first major breakthrough in rice production technology for Bangladesh was for the boro crop (the least important of the three rice crops) with the introduction of IR-8, the first major release from IRRI. It was tested in Bangladesh in 1965-66 for aus, aman and boro. Initial results indicated an average yield of 2.5 tons of paddy per acre as compared with less than one ton per acre for local boro varieties. On the other hand, the new variety did poorly during the aman and aus seasons due to its susceptibility to pests and diseases. Some plantings were complete failures, others produced low yields, but the majority produced higher than normal yields.

8.03 On the average, a yield of 1.5 tons of paddy per acre was obtained in the boro season, with proper fertilization and pest control -- two to three times the average yield of local varieties. However, the following disadvantages of IR-8 emerged: (a) a longer growing season than the traditional boro types interfering with aus crop; (b) largely, as a result of this, water requirements more difficult to meet; and (c) susceptibility to bacterial leaf blight and cold damage if planted early. The yield potential given inputs and good care was sufficiently great to ensure dissemination of the variety in irrigated areas--and the beginning of a new productivity consciousness

/ See Volume IV, Technical Report No. 7. among Bangladesh farmers. The overriding constraint to expansion of rice #m-1+Ar+A ni" imdw.r fhin aurnmr won +he AanadnA y nof Tp,_8R anm jam aill boro rice, on irrigation.

8.04 Breakthrough in rice technology for the main crop aman, came only in 1Q70 wiith the introduction of TR-20. A crnaiallv inmortant bensfit is that this development releases the rice production programs on short term frnm their previous wexlusivA dpenndpnce on irrigation until- this or comparable varieties are cultivated, in all suitable areas. The IR-20 variaty was grown on about 170j000 acres in 1970 snnttered over about 100 thanas in different parts of Bangladesh. In 1971, IR-20 was grown on well over 600,000 acrp-s and gained wide nnaptance hy farm.ers. The results of the 1971 season are most significant since the pest control system did not fim.,.tinn duiige+.n civril 1 ,. nor was there significantnrnn.tiies of supplementary irrigation. This confirms experimental findings suggesting that the variety has reCn.arkedly good pest resistn-ce and that it is w.ell adapd+. t. the prevailing rainfall pattern with its earlier flowering than traditional varieis A+ new brethroh a alolr%OreachgA 4n Anmrnen,mn+ nfb TPPT ~~~~~~ -- -- 1 - .V- --- r _z- -e -n of -_ _ varieties for the aus season. The first of them, IR-76 (Chandina), was released n 1970. Other promising arities a I.R-272-4l-2 as aus crop and IR-442 for more deeply flooded, transplant aman areas than IR-20 or as broadcast mann, for areas of 3 - 5 ft. depths of flooiA .

_VWUT+ S_V _.9VLW VXVS_ - chniill&W* LL_VW h«n c+ v->o ,nA +h..n+ _1+h1w riih +1h% "Aa- _;A ; O -i a 6,A~~ It should, be stresed t,ta+nrhthe new vrietiea -m 1 enormous production possibilities, they are definitely not "miraculous".

They, Ano -r difi' n, -nj4 4 Jus+nvnA.. a inm -n a't4,,-ard c+1+ I pra+ t ices I*LC.J * , - - - - - C q Lt-j VAwwr"AUU ht ...LAkJ I.h W WUU.UJ.U 4.Lt. UIA.J fL" jJA. ate j.'~,e for large benefits to be reaped.. In particular, pest control, weed control, bette-r la.d preparatio Amoreu effect ve i;rr igat.'jjo-L6 practices, righ. U4m,-L in transplanting, proper plant population per acre, and appropriate use of 4 fertilizers,)an+4.,nn 14 Inavehara becoM.hana.n 1Ia mt P.n+ae+an.n,nC r -p.-odcton .Aa th4derl, r.wtehaeW 4n -.~ te~ J, *ta~ t ~tetetS4V .J.LILI V.I.Lt .a.te U.JA J U. ~j.'.JU.A,LLte U.L U.LtLUt'..L ULAL A. v VeAA nology. This implies a heavy burden on research, extension and education

Other Crops -n.A TLivestock

4 R (V%e 71T . arA,.+ a4 - ~ 4,....JA 4.-.l I'l. Jo dra ma-L LJJ.VCtr oIAJU6L hblave b Vee..achOie-Ved U-n. pjroductLion t echL.nolog-.V for crops other than rice or for livestock. In the short and medium run,

Jimprove,mVeIrU.tin produAction hLaLve uo be acL b1.VVVy aJ.LW..L-V.LUU .Lp.roVVemL=14j0 Ln practices. Yet, even on this basis, it should be possible to achieve sub-

UtU.LiaL, y4LLe.LdU.IJILjJVVe,=.1Lt=s anu prouci.Lon.LV LLnrUases f- ULIh UoAthe cU1-U.LtLLJ important crop, jute, and also on crops such as groundnuts and wheat. This ould in.vol-ve special arrar-EL-LerM.+ to assur-e adequate price inLcentLves. Jute 8.07 A large-scale field evaluation of the available jute technolog-J package conclud.es that a 100%/@ increase of average jute yields from about 14 mds/acre to 28 mds/acre is feasible. Leaving out any item of the package would lower the impact of individual items, especially if the package is applied, to unimproved-varieties. The impact of irrigation on jute production has not yet been critically evaluated. Its main benefit would.be to facilitate timely land.preparation and sowing and of helping jute to grow through the early part of the season when rainrfal may be erratic. After examination of available evidence a potential yield increase of about 4 mds of fiber per acre has been estimated.. An evaluation of the input of individual items to the total yield estimates increases as follows: (%O Varieties 20 Timely sowing 15 Line sowing 25 Fertilizers 25 Plant protection 15 100

8.08 Climatic conditions are not as favorable for achieving high wheat yields as in India or parts of Pakistan. cool temperatures during the critical period.from tillering to ear formation occur-for too short a time for maximum yields attainable with the dwarf wheat varieties in cooler countries. At present, it is doubtful whether the dwarf (Mexican) varieties would outyield local varieties south of latitude 24-N1. The International Maize and Wheat Breeding Center in Mexico has developed a variety, Sonalika, that has shoiwn promise. This variety may extend southward to the zone of the successful wheat cultivation in Bangladesh.

8.09 Modern technology has not yet made an impact on cane production,jE but results at research stations and at some factory estates show that the yields can be improved considerably. Most important is the choice of land. Waterlogging and flooding will seriously reduce cane yields and depress the sugar content of cane. At present much of the cane is grown on land subject to flooding or to long periods of waterlogging. Besides, irrikation would alao be essential. Disease which seriously reduces the plant population and consequently yields can be reduced by choice of healthy planting material, simple and inexpensive treatment and selection of well-drained soils. Pest control to prevent damage from borers has been worked out and, is relatively simple and inexpensive to implement. Work by the sugar research services and by the Soil Fertility Testing Unit shows up to 60% yield increase with fertilizer application of 150-N, 50-P. 50-K.

J4 i-n _ I w.'0 ThereW -L"i isn proven tecnnology pacKage for rape and mustard seed, the most important of the oilseeds, but there are several agricultural practices whichVcve lU.* Poor land preparation is probably the main cause of poor yields, as with wheat, so that little improvement can be expected until np more su-itale for dryland farming than the local country plow, finds wide acceptance. Because the other improvements would depend on good land preparation there may be little improvement until the cultivation problem has been , / -_ r- .... -v M -- J6/ -- VUj.UVvu LTeonInCieai Rfeport, NO4. 8. 2 See Volume IV, Technical Report No. 9 - 87 - solved. Other factors which would contribute to yield increases are the use of fertilizersa 'a jti'arl ritrog_r.* ard.phosphate, and the' croo aphids. Groundnut production has been increasing rapidly. No particular +echnologT package has~ beenider.ti,fiedA tvoe+dla+te +the anailary14+-t of seed. and market outlets is ad.equate to sustain increased, production.

8.11 The complete lack of improved.technology is the reason that the p ro-d.^tion ofvPp-1se crosa -- +he r..ost iat rt+.. eor o'f protein+e% -- h n expand.ed. Consequently, no recommendations for improving yields are possible. a major research program. Of the large group of horticultural crops, production of potatoes has expan.ded rapidly. Yi Adsar low -- 2 -3 +ors pe acre The basic technology for doubling yields includes: (a) healthy seed.; potato seed. 4 4 A A.Ae-e-+- A a41,1- , ; _,-nl nAdas1AAOS a., ,nrs, aeAn. 1he o -- I AA ,-.n . -- -- A 'A 6 w ~ 1 Ix^<9wwJs DA6. > X L4ss.^*4 ^&gUV U LA s -- AL V d ki _6W .L. VU,i. Uv'J 9z or third. year; (b) adequate amounts of seed; 12 - 15 mds seed potatoes per acr, .. tead of = A rds at present-.t (c" adqat ar,ure ar.d vertlies a ~A.~LLOJ UGL,' ,ja _ - ' LILUJO 0.VU k.J± Q0 1 , \%../ 0.UV.JACLVV L1U0.4L±LL" OI u .L ~±UA.LJ.A.J0J. 0 i 0. combination of 4-5 tons manure and 50-N, 80-P20s, 60-K is the minimum recom-

1 9 T.7:1,, 1 - - .. - A _4 4 - 1 'l 4 7 AI - - -1 ------T_- - A_ _4_2o H- sVAA-LcOV C6V JY W.LU VJ. U0CJ.O JJVWi WU. VJ LUQ iJt.L- CUVlOt t;.JALYd.L. U IIUU 1,000 lbs per acre in India -- yield levels are as high as 1,000 lbs per acre on WWe a.'-"I --rIar.-Laged~ 'J~L 6 ~UW~J.LAID1AOAe..lg estts 00 U. .o. ±0'.ALU'J.I 'OYdeveopevJ JAJ~JOU .LO.±larel t;J..J 0.ULAoat- thu it Lea.e 6 Research Stations at Srimangal accounts for the higher yields of well- m.anaged est0atCoes. TLIey fact.ors are; (a) ad.equate La..LLLpopu.LJ.Latio young plants often die due to the severe and. long dry season; (b) improved varieties: AZL 'JLo A. tea varietis.L.0 groVwnl areu 50 - LOU years oldU U Var.L6L.tu> .L-Vll low yielding strains. The Tea Research Station has developed. high yielding M,aterial clorLal 1...L~.'L1d.J.IIO.UJ..dJ. tuol replartLpD iL10Lol W1"he l lessL ~ prod"crveUULUU..LVf, fL.L±U.LUZ; elds 4kU)(c _LVEIrrgtorsp%eb .L6 .LU11 FUAI.tLU.Lal.. yield iycrease from irrigating mature tea is under investigation. Irrigation is vital for the successf-ul establ shamentv of t-a seedlLrb fro cLUrULmaterial; (d) adequate fertilization: the standard recommendation is 80 lbs N per acre per year with balaced. dressiU g of the proport on of 1;2;2 (N:PC;:Kj) fAor young tea or for rehabilitating old.tea and 5:l:l for mature tea; (e plant protection: includinlg pest,…dsaeal.eh d al..~ weed...co.r' me Tea Rsearo Station has given recommendations for the control of the 7 major peasta and. of 2 aerious weed control problema, mOst effectively control'ed.with"0 herbicid.es. Based on available research and. estate data average yields of between 1,200 lbs anfd 15w00 lbs tea per acre are feasIble with itproved olonal Material.

T.J- nf - at. ~- _--I - - - rLIKHU anU ne.Lated Characerisics

'I T- 1- -T _._ I __ _ a I -_ - _ In _U -__ - I s- _ -_ _ - I - - --- u.Q u. zi±N.turie i ua snuuweu I tiangLauesn wirn large agricu.tural resources. They are, however, complex and have many inherent constraints. Yet, a large porEion of resources are und.erUtilized -- ovpaule os r-' X- -lor intensive development -- in terms of available technology.

/ See Volume IV, Technical Report No. 10 Temperatures

8.14 Temperatures are suitable for Xear around crop production. Mean monthly temperatures never fall below 60-F and hence permit the growth of a wide range of tropical and sub-tropical crops throughout the year, as well as of temperate zone crops in the dry season. The tropical and sub-tropical crops include rice, millets, maize, sugarcane, jute, various pulse and fodder legumes, groundnuts, chillies, bananas, mangos, tea, coffee coconuts, betal (areca) nut, ginger, and various other spices. Temperate crops include wheat, barley, potatoes, mustard, cabbage, onions and linseed.. Bangladesh is beyond the climatic range of equatorial crops like oil palm and cocoa, and conditions are marginal for high yielding rubber. The low winter temperatures are on the cool side for optimum, though not for acceptable, rice cultivation, yet their duration,is too short for optimum wheat cultivation.

Soils/

8.15 Bangladesh'sa soils have, in general, a high potential for increased crop production. This is due more to favorable physical properties for rice cultivation than to high natural fertility. Under continuous cropping, in much of the area dating back for many centuries, yields are low at the low levels of manuring generally practiced. However, extensive agronomic trials show that virtually all soils respond well to fertilizers. With the use of other inputs associated with modern technology -- including high-yielding varieties. plant protection, and irrigation and/or drainage where appropriate -- most cultivated areas are capable of producing vastly increased yields. Soil problems affect only a small percentage of the cultivated land. However, salinity depresses yields along the coast where many areas are still subiect to saline water inundation.

Water Regime2

8.16 The water regime exhibits extreme variations typical of monsoon climates. The rainy season (June-October), which is characterized by an excess of water, is followed by a virtually rainless dry season lasting several months. The seasonal rainfall variation is compounded by the three mighty rivers, the Brabmaputra, Ganges and Meghna, which Join together in Bangladesh and discharge into the Bay of Bengal through a common outlet. Most of the watersheds of these rivers are outside of Bangladesh, and they bring into Bangladesh an average annual inflow of some 870 million acrefeet of water (MAF), an amount sufficient to cover the cultivated land of Bangladesh to a depth of nearly 40 feet. / See Volume II, Technical Report No. 2. 2/ See Volime Irj Tec'hnical Report No. 9Ulirmn2, ITTT Rpor or) and Volume VIII, Technical Report No. 25 Rainfall

8.17 Rainfall ranges from 50 inches in the west to over 200 inches in the northeast and the southeast. The monthly distribution of rainfall follows the monsoon pattern of South Asia, with the heavy rains starting in june and ending in October. From November through February, there is virtually no rain. March and April are transitional: some showers fall., but they are irregular in timing and quantity.

8.18 The abundant monsoon rainfall, with the resulting widespread waterlogging and. flooding, give a comparative advantage to wetland crops, rice and jute, over dryland. crops. However, wherever drainage conditions are good., there is a great diversity of cropping opportunities even during the monsoon season. On munch of the cultivated land, the water regime is suitable for the introduction of modern rice and,jute cultivation technology. 8.19 A number of constraints are inherent in the monsoon rainfall and cli-mate patten.. 6 moron season restri of perennial and, annual dryland.crops to soils with superior moisture holding capac±ty-, foun.d only in 1i4i ted areas, or to irrigated. land. Uncertaintuy of pre-monsoon showers causes variations in aus and.jute acreages and yields from year to yea-ra,esc 11r 4n +he. ei-j-r wesa+ U4 ,,1, -a4"- 11 A4 4.d -4 J - n.IV ... S~5S.a.& LtJ.%. E MAZUs~ cloudiness impose limitations in monsoon season production, encouraging various ^".nn A aiaonan " v1i ml n4Y md4yr A4 PP4^4 .1 + +^ 1~ - A..n- -4-- - - 4.~.4---- - 4. -cro diseases .- it difiJ.t + ha es, dyJ, stlor hALU trar.soV.LC crops. Finally monsoon season cloudiness reduces with yield potential of most riGe ymvi*tism below ha+t #tv ha ach4eWed 4- tUh si_i4 r jeason.s

Topog-1_ 2/

8.*20 The nearly flnat topograp.>V, .:hile ideal for agriculture, is prone to drainage and flood.problems under the prevailing rainfall pattern and river regsimes. The low=Lyig aluvial plan comprising m..ost of Ban.gladesh, rises with very low gradients from the Bay of Bengal in the south towards the foot-

h*ll.J.O 0400MWIUUUIC .LJ. ..L.LO aa, UAAh d._os -- o-- t f miles outside Bangladesh in the northwest. Most of the country lies less than60 feet above Me-a Sea T-ve1 (MQT) The highest part+- of the flood pl-in, on the northwestern bord.er, is about 280 feet above MSL. The 10-foot contour

raLuis C&.LV1A6alor-1--- theU&l1Z- Me-,_r1iWV LL&la, CL1.a..d. Su1-aWLJ,.JLLC6 li A.&VV.L.AVCrier M.111W v~ V WU. 4-1.sttou,,le Assm border~v.... Thenlh.-.. coastal tidal land lies only a few feet above sea level as well as lowest parts ofL thle OS;Llhet depression. ILr'ar.d-LA, th-L-e overcall g-radi6er.tV onL .. -ive flood- plains is less than a foot per mile, except in the extreme northwest where it

8.2''J . Cl~ ThsL ILL~ oVvea' dL J_L p-c'-ure IjU.L UJof a verj-y ger.t'y1.VwL1 VJ.Jy sloi_.L0JkJ.I.4( alvlpanCL..LJSV .LM-.J disguises considerable variability in local relief which is of decisive irportance to present and. future larnd. Pc:Lity, ar,dC to patter.f V v.

y See Voluxme VII., 1eciuuLca.L R6epoUrU VWo. 23. / See Volume II, Technical Report No. 2 habitation. Few floodplain areas are truly flat. The smoothest areas are on the old Meghnn floodplain and the r.TngeP tirnI floodplnin, where t

8.22 The major terrace areas of the Madhpur (in the northeast) and Barind (in the northwest) tracts (Land evelop,met Units C13 and NWl3, respectively), generally lie only a few feet higher than adjoining land, but the western edge of the Barind tract reaches a height of a-dost 10 feet, about a hundred. feet higher than the adjoining Purnabhaba floodplain. The surface of the Barind is t flat, excep in the dissected wester. areas. Thee are eonsider _ of almost level land on the Madhupur tract, too, but in general it is more closely dissected by broad and rarrow valley s wi+I, local and usualy abrupt differences in elevation of 10 - 13 feet, providing potential problems for distribution of irrigation water over considerable areas.

Floods and Drainage '

8* 23 The flat, low=ly;ng n-,.n--- -- ed es dranage ard causes 4 ood4 under the heavy monsoon rainfall pattern, (see Map 6). The hydrological _eg;m_ ^.p +1,^ -;wr_e - 4GAm;Ams_nr1-~ +1AIk U--_A P ^-_A A. W5.I.V -AU L VJ. U - Ji' .. 11L.J C W..Y UAAY JALU6*V J1.441v*-W WJrA ALL J UV%JL± rainfall outside Bangladesh, and snowmelt in the Himalayas.

JJAL.J 4-rir.ULAU UM -he .L partkJCJk---J0 4-U ofWJ ULAU-h mosonLILWIL-romu-mot -ae -f JJJi, VIAJJ ALU A.JU2 cut JULUS ofW.IP IVICL U1.1.-4low .-LJ -V-LLin viav .LC 1 the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna systems, causing adjoining rivers to rise

r;a.!pidAy1.I ~.LUJJL, nhe±1"V ris.LJ_Q i4-nLLJ. Irilver ±Y± "le-vels0 blocksU-L,LA U± LG±L5art g %JUULCUIi.),4- -ri4ules - Ca-U-J-nasn .LLicreaslc easeU. ponding of local rainfall and run-off water. Most of the land is flooded, in UiA.Ls way. OrLL .Ltr;Ldi..LViLy 11arLroJW UbeLts, CUJJA-4JJJ ULthe ,ilaJJUU J.LVMO c.UIU tU1rvsa .e distributaries are flooded directly by river water.

8.24 In particular, in the moribund Ganges delta occupying most of K(ushtia, Jessore and Khulna dsitricts, where local rI vers are not connected with the major rivers, flooding occurs when runoff from excessive local rainfall is unable to drain rapidly enough beca-ase of the congested condition of the old river channels. Elsewhere, in areas adjoining the northern and eastern hills, flash f1LooUUds U rLULLUo.LoUWinJg periLodUUzjs oLf hieavy ra.±LLa.Ll. OSi,±LJ .lL.LasLh 1LoUUU1 occur, but less frequently, on the Tista floodplain following exceptionally heavy rainfallt i adJoininL g areas of the Hima'ayas. In COasl areaso, fldUU. levels fluctuate with the tide, except where tidal effects are cut off by e eVbankmcnRent. Ns i/ See Volume VIII, Technical Report No. 24~. 8.25 Regional and. local differences in depth of flooding depend on topographiGal cnfditioln 5 in relation to ndioining river levels. The Madhupur and Barind tracts, and high floodplain ridges - especially in the northwest and west - stand abovnenonm-l flnneo level- Howe-ver, suh- stantial areas of such land are either periodically wet or shallowly flnnroigdi within field bh,neid duriying the Ynnosoontdai e ton a raisAd water table during periods of heavy rainfall, or to impervious soils (intcluding soils deliverately rlddNed for rice Plt+AuV+Ann). WlsRawh ere" floodplain land in the north, west, south and extreme east is mainly subject to shallow flooding (less +han about+. 3 feet). Vast areas in t+ha renter of Bangladesh - on the Jamuna, old and middle Meghna, and parts of the old, Brahmaputra and Ganges river f roodplains - are flooded 3 - 11 feet dep, shallower on the ridges, deeper in the basins. Flooding depths in extensive p-wIa of the Sy lhe+ basin,K r.dA lo1a'r elsaeerve excee 15 fee

T ore Awn41!2I-v for T,im.n Ush4+o+4v

8 Hfuean habitation is crodAA on h4, ,,od whA4^ch 4i nn+ fl%^AaA at all or only to shallow depths. Wherever there is flooding the villages a e built on M-=.--M-de mol,.nds. The houses, 4- ,,- , .re bui,l+ n 4""4 -I X.A~~, .~AJ5..*, f ~ L ~ U .~a d ~. elevated platforms rising from one to three feet above the village mound 4 level. TPhe cnns+n,n4- nofl - suchI alev.a+ved pla+vfo.....C for,1-.k4 . 4-. +elaks a great deal of labor and. therefore there is serious crowding on existing -+-3..1 - h,4 + "n1 a 1-4 "bIt gr. nd A an _o_.n al3 A .41 ._ aSW. vfl C...L..5. * . vW~a Sw 6 i,.Af, rU %l L&S%I. WU% 4/AS-A v *ISv ' eV. V vUv V This and. the difficulty of providing transporation, communication, social se..ces ard--A 4-P--4- nctv.re 4-o -4'-'-g , .a.-- - ofl whi4c1h a Adact4-o 4isl& -.ds A~JV I.6%.V.5 CSLIA. A.4.45A5.5 V.QUJ.L%. UU. V U' V.L6J.L.LrVO.9 M&e1SJJJ W.L LL'..A C6A V; 44V.40C1. LI/' J.0.&O.Li'.JD during the monsoon season, are among the greatest inconveniences to every- day 14a.-.d-Ale 4--Ae..4-t 4-develo..v.4 m .-L..L. C.SL4 .LJIA. J'LLW1 U4J %.4VV ,V.JA/ ILVAI u.

Adjus4.m.-yts of-P Tra44tior-'I - -Pztter,.s4-.4-4-- toT-4-- D4 fl'JJ 4.~UIIV.LUa 1.5 O...La.. UJ.4JS0.. V..4UJVJJJ.1IL, 0.44 UV± AJL. 444 00LO.UV ALUMLALLU -1/

8.27 T~Flfl 4is predi e or. ,.,S4 o a 1rt A -.- A. loalag ~ 4/05..IJt'.J..L. J. .LQ 5 jJ. V JA.U0.JJV 4/I 544/ 1 .L J /JAkJJ.0LCLA A.CLA.IU, 0i4'J%.L'LC" C.Lr0.- ricultural practices have adapted. to it so that damage is only in years of nus ly %highL, elarl;- rapid floodir.- T^r.A whchsqf-oo ar,g un4LLu -.0sJ.L LU V. .L or/ .4 a.Y.,LU. u.LLVUL&L6* 40C4±LU. WLLLL.L OUL.L.LLA a L.LVUU. UCUIJa.5V more frequently lies near the major river channels, near the foot of the hills wh4ere PL.Msh 4Lflaoods occur and in UAr,-.e deebas.ir. w orrapi WLAVI .4-L.CUJI'Ja tL,L,U. 4LIU .1.44 IAIJ. UVVj U&.Q.LAL UV4LL,=L.V. WLIVJl-V Ct0l.iJ. V/.L vyLu.J.U rise of floodwater may damage either the boro or deepwater aman crop. Some deep basirn centers, such as the Sylhet basin, Ar-al bil, etc., are tUU raPdlU and deeply flooded for rice to be grown in the monsoon season at all, and. produuceproduce~I. olA±or- 4y4auuoro crop ±L11in thbLit UJ-Vd-y-- seso------UtsIUI wherWiiulru-- bLU.L±Lu.LuIIfiel Wat,e- Lb ava±Jau.Luava'__21 able and. where the hazard. of early flash floods is not too great.

8.28 More than any other environmental factor,hydrological conditions detemIn-(Lie the present and fut-ure agriculture use of Bangladeshuwu cultivated land,. These conditions determine which crops can be grown and which rotations

1/ See V'olume II, Technical Report No. 2. - 92 -

can be practised. In general, rice or jute are grown in the monsoon season on seonsnlv flooded or wet land; and drvland crn s are grown in the dry season on land that drains quickly enough and has soils with good enough moisture retaining nspitv- Ry aaga ouf ai dn4ini,. ni'vA consequent soil saturation or flooding, 85% of all agricultural land is suitabla onlv for rice and jute pr.odunction during the monqsnn sason. Dryland crops, including permanent crops (such as orchards and sugar- c-ne) and. annmal tcrnn-p (1neluiiri-na arinnit-c and suzer vegetables) can be grown on the remaining land.-- the best drained highland soils -- during the mronqoons. Rice can also be grown in the dry season where land remains flooded throughout the year, or on impermeable soils with ir-

8.29 The three main rice crops -- aus, ae n -- .-r ^ ; the early monsoon, late monsoon and dry seasons, respectively. Their C,il t va!t+_ ewi, +.toefther" "it+h t+ha+t o-f 4iu+ e i lal ,r Aeter.m..inA b 1ar.d 1evela in relation to flooding. 8.30 Higher yielding transplanted aman rice varieties can be grown on l,Ar floodAPl i.o+ moreha.+.~ nab^u 3 fee+ A-eep e as or' r, low4 -l Ad- deepwater aman varieties will grow on more deeply flooded land. Even these v.arieties carr.ot be grown safely oni lar. flooded too deeply or rapid ly Th general relationship between land levels, flood depths and cropping patterns a n, nan ha.,-al A mrdaea AAc- n-nA - nn - ' +1, 4-n-- a -' 1.,AI.. A-- n - _SSS ''5vu_ww I e £ *51ASS.- w' V S .._ W V G.SW'SL U 'V5 uLAv A_L & WSv5J. LSJ1.4 5&.''S.v and other environmental factors on land use and land.capability is contained, .in Vol,.e- TT.

T--A ~ n'4-_~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IMnda,,n i crop rot-'-ati.Lona 4-.4-4. or. l.-Cd -V e

Pe.~.L able.I-. hihlar.dg Broadca-+ -u - rab 'Lcrop I I

Pe .OeCab Le med1iLmA- 11biLLgIL&-nd. . B.1r.o'aldcast, auI s or juLte t - rabli crop (0-3 feet flood.depth)

Poorly drained. highland Transplanted aman ± broadcast aus

Poorly drained medium highland Broadcast aus or jute - transplanted.

(o f) ±.eet.ULU. Uood.deuplt / - A.5u.LJJ Uri -Up

Mediu m lowlanld. ri,dges Mi-iUed. aus and deePwater- auman rabi and.basin margins crop I,(3-6 Ui .J.eetfee .L.L-oo- ULU d.epth)U,LI j

.LoVWLzUU (u fee.t±VVU Ut!phL) 1Ji.Wute Vob uu.,,; ,lVU.LY.9-, aus and medium lowland.basin centers and crop (Khesari) or grazed.grass-land.

-' The 'yo'bol± indicates that the folluwig crop Lay or ray-not be grown in rotation, usually determined.by soil moisture conditions. - 93 -

T.nd Adnint.Md fo)r Modern Technologv as nAtArmined by Soils and.Land Capability Survey

4 8.31 TPhe nnaly r.zi of tha qnilq nfr Tadanrd Crnnahility Surrvey snonsorpd by the UNDP and FAO was completed. - by lucky coincidence - just in time to be used in this+ tudy. It provided.the basic data for nlanning fut.ure land.developments. Also, some additional analyses of the survey data were -m.dt ispecfji11v for +this stid.v ThA fiPtsi1Ad rPonnnAissqncA surveys covered over 70% of the country and gathered.sufficient information for the remainder of the coun.try (througih airphoto nTterpretation and exploratory surveys) to extrapolate the results to the entire area of Bangladesh. The survey provides infor.mation nnot onlr n soil eonditions, hbit also on present land use and on physical factors limiting agricultural development, such as surf-ace delrf,d-rlafae, d.epfh aned natu-re of sesnlf'loodingj erosion hazard and salinity. This information has been interpreted to determine the sit+n1b14+vy nf individ and areas for production of p*rti"n1r crops, with and.without irrigation.2 _ The results of this land capability classification allow agr±cl+vural poten.tial in d r f them ?rgion to be evaluated, on a common basis. Thus, the basic land capability data was m-ore comprehen.sive thar. _fora In_pr plarr-g eff_a.

8.32 The most fiv-.me-tal findirg is that sorme 1 .i"ion acres out of 22.5 million acres of agricultural land in Bangladesh are suited for a griec,0 v"nl intensa +vo with.e ar. iJ.puts package -onsAn"n-.. o i crop varieties (especially IRRI rice varieties), fertilizers and pesticides, WJ+h mi+ iwnn_ry vn¶r~a+m--n+. 4"v_"4-n- A ,S_ fl^^4 ...-- -1 ;+1-.+ h t _J_ v vJ,ut a, 'a, a 5 v. -----a. . . v- U.%/SA vJU hw vW-d va.WUv irrigationpDeing essential (although this would generally provide valuable

benefits) Abu 6. Miilion wO be suitLabDle a. a ~ ~~62 acres lm'd for the 6 TrrU-.40 r. -4V following either IRRI aus or jute. On a further 1.7 million acres in the dry west o-f thAe -o,Wn,.ty w1here currer."l or'ly a sing'Le crop of loca"l rice-- is Sgrowin., a single high yielding rice crop, either early planted. IR-20 or one of the new

nor.-photoser.si+v~V ar.e.ties Ch&inL4i4rVlJkLkL..L.Li0.L oWr L.wLU rLepe.Ld thLe traditional crop. In addition, 3.1 million acres of medium-deeply flooded broadcast

(,''' -. U^1,iaZs e a..TT, UJ,.. U '~-A V- I Se-QC Volwme II, Technical 1Peport 1No. aF Tal,a.'ka an 0I'*r. Land in the highest class delineated by the Soil Survey (Class 1) has lew limitations for agricultural use throughout the year. Land in successively lower classes has increasing limitations for crop production either in one or both main cropping seasons. Land in the iowest ciass (Class v) is regarded as unsuitable for economic agricultural use. The classification makes a major distinction between land that is seasonally f±ooded and land lying above normal flood,level. Sub-classes are recognized which distinguish major characteristics affecting crop production. These limitations include: rapid. permeability and.poor moisture retention; poorly drained, soils subject to water- Logging; monsoon fiooa levels; hazard of rlood damage; erosion hazard. (including hazard of river erosion or burial by new s,ediments); irregular relief (for irrigation); salinity. Land is classified in its present condition, but suitability for irrigation in the future is taken into account. In determining suitaDility for crop production, rice is regarded as the normal crop of the region. A full description of the classification is given in Volume II, Technical Report No. 2. I/ See Table V, Technical Report No. 2. - 94 - aman could be replaced by IR-442. Irrigation would benefit most of the transplanted aman areas in low rainfall years, but this form of supplemental irrigation would only be economic if provided as a by-product of dry season irrigation. Moreover, of the 8.5 million acres of broadcast aus, some 7.5 million acres could be replaced by high yielding IRRI varieties, but the use of other inputs would remain at relatively modest levels due to the variable, unpredictable rainfall during the dry season except where irrigation is available. Also, the potential for intensified Rabi cropping without irrigation is substantial, although for highest yields, such crops require irrigation during the dry season.

8.33 The majority of the floodplain and terrace soils are considered irrigable if irrigation water can be supplied. In particular, about 15 million acres have moderately to slowly permeable soils and considered suitable for irrigated IRRI boro or transplanted aus. Almost all the remaining agricultural land is suitable for irrigation of dryland rabi crops if water can be supplied.

8.34 Regarding other crops, oilseeds, including groundnuts, can be grown on a gross area of about 10 million acres in the dry season and 3 million acres in the monsoon season. Almost all this land is currently producing broadcast aus (c. 8 million acres) or jute (c.2.4 million acres), but only a fifth produces a rabi crop. Kharif groundnuts would compete with aus and jute, but the rabi oilseeds could be grown in rotation with them. Irrigation would be essential for high yielding rabi production, but not for kharif production nor, on about half the area, for moderate yields in the dry season so long as the crops are adequately fertilized and protected from pests.

8.35 Substantial land areas are also suitable for sugarcane (c.4 million acres), wheat (c. 5 million acres), and rabi cotton (c.2.5 million acres, subject to further testing). They would require irrigation. Together with oilseeds, these crops provide considerable opportunities for crop diver- sification and for cash crop production to support agricultural processing industries.

Water Control Pbtential i'

8.36 Readily usable irrigation water - in technical and economic terms - is available for irrigating at least some 7 million ac - nearly one third the cultivated area of the country as against less than 5% irrigated at present.

Surface Water Irrigation

8.37 It has been estimated that some 100,000 cusecs can probably be withdrawn from the major rivers without causing excessive salinity intrusion in the Lower Meghna Outlet. The net amount of water in cusecs per million acres of develoPment area is given in Table 46 of Technical Report No. 20 for five districts. The net river withdrawals for low-lift pumps vary by district and would be maximum 10,000 cusecs per million irriRated acres in Khulna for the month of April. For closed polders, the maximum net with- drawal reduces to 7,500 cusecs per million irrigated acres in Khulna for

/ SeeQ VTolume VII, Technical Report No. 20 the month of April. These figures are indicative of the development potential. Makine allowance for conveyance losses (15%). it follows that there is potential for developing up to 10 million ac with surface water. In the nresent study, it has been established that some 3 million ac can readily be developed by low-lift pumps and double pumping schemes. The latter can be develoned by nmpning into existiTng channels which mav need some improvement and into several of the coastal embankment nolders. after saiinitv intrutsinn haq bean dAcreaasd or Aliminated in salected channels. More land can be irrigated by diverting surface water into the southwest region from the Ganges/Brahamnutra confluence and by diversion from the Meghna into the east region. Water diversion into the southwest region can be accomplishad by dredgina in the channel into the rIoral from a point near the confluence of the Ganges/Brahamputra. The Gorai River itself will nAad channAl imnrovAynnnts And nnsqihlv an inlAt strtntire- Di- versions from the Meghna will need provision of a regulator on the river whic-h can possiblv hA proviteidi mt thA rqilw.v hb-riAdg near BhRirab Bazar.

8.38 In assess,ing irr_gatinn potentialj suirfac ei ity n.eed only be considered in relation to its dry season flow. Any source capable nf meetin dry nnneason demnd:rniAtn will have abndantn suppline o meet the lower demand of the wet season. Although crop requirements are greatest in Jmrniarv and 'ebyinav-w qiiifne.a floer are more thant adequate in +these months. The period of critical surface water flow is in March and April jiiQt hAforA the onset of the monsonns. Over m.ost ^f +h.e countr, A.pril is more critical than March, but to the northeast and east the rains nor- mnll2 eonme snnn Rnnhlah toe ineranea -n-pit_nff' tii4-4 A,4pril lawiyr-ic Wnth no the critical month.

Critical Lower Quartile Surface Flows

iinor Rivers by Region

North-west 11d60 12,000jl Center 5,700 13,000 East up INVf 1fl0% Southwest 3,900 3,900

Total 29,600 39,000

Major Rivers Brahmaputra 136,000 207,000 Ganges ui,ooou60,00 Meghna 18,000 28,000 Total 221,000 295,000

Total 251,000 335,000 8.39)7 MUnaa LUW UWk&UVL1 L.L.WWO MAL- A epa irrigation because flow must be maintained for navigation, domestic water supp-1 ant-L other uses. Abou 6t on-fth.+ lort'n nv+4Ai fl^W i4 AQtiThstAId to be a reasonable criterion for maximum abstraction. The lower quartile 4.low ^^oirM.Aed are ff ivn+t_ on +h4i hbaqisq +n prnvide for dry season cultivation of rice on roughly half the arable land of the region. How- ever, surface water use is severely limited by the accessibility of suitable agricultural land. Although most areas are cut by numerous channels and river distributaries, many channels are dry during the winter, slopes are neither substantial nor uniformly aligned and the ground relief is marked by various ridges and depressions. Land ownership is highly fragmented and land is difficult to acquire. DLstribution, therefore, is essentially restricted to the existing network of channels and khals and by the distance low-lift pumps can reach.

Groundwater Potential

8.40 The potentially available groundwater resources have been estimate'd to be ade-+.i-te to irrigate 17 million a 4tA t+h honeatAe4 ~~~~~'_ cv ov-s -v_{a "-gvvo- -_-W*naff W. L. assumptions made in this study, it has been determined that some 4 million ac! can be irrigated from tih_ewAll immediately.y t 80 ac per well, +is would translate into about 70,000 2-cusec wells. For all practical purposes the groundwater development notential is unlimited for the next 10-15 years.

8.41 Initially, groundwater development has been concentrated in those areas--largely in the northwest region--which have the greatest need for irrigation and the most limited supplies of surface water. The combination of unconsolidated alluvial deposit with relatively high rainfall in these areas provides what is in effect a vast buried reservoir. Constraints are imposed in the south by the presence of saline groundwater, so that no major development of wells for irrigation is possible south of a line running approximately from Comilla to Jessore. In the east, constraints faced include deep flooding in the Sylhet Basin and complex geological conditions in the surrounding hills. For these reasons, and with the exception of a limited area in the Comilla district, no major tubewell development seems feasible in the eastern region or the east part of the eentral region.

8.42 The remaining area, totalling about 22,500 sq miles, is generally suitable for development of irrigation weiis, yielding 2 cfs on the average, with depths between 150 and 300.ft. However, about 25% of this area is seasonally flooded to dept'hs sgreater tnan 3 ft and a iurther 9% is occupied by settlements or water. This leaves about 14,750 sq miles (9.4 million ac) of ""rd ptn4 "yirgablefro..LLLu. .IALVA. groundaterUIA W.L"Wd. #'zV U sources.U~L Reo,haarge conrI) L LLLtions. are generally excellent and water tables near the rivers are observed to rise and fall winth, the r_vers, irMcating high lateral permeabilities. It is conceivable, however, that intensive development in specific areas could draw the water table down and therebv t.reAte excessive puimning os.Q+..

Drainaze and Flood Control

8.43 Two important conclusions relative to drainage and flood control problems in Bangladesh emerge from the FAO/UNDP survey of land levels in relation to flooding referred to earlier. First, about 67% of the cultivated land (22.5 million ac) comprises high land and medium high land flooded on average to a depth of 1-3 ft and thus suited to agricultural intensification without investment in drainage--flood protection works. However, selective drainage works in these areas would undoubtedly improve the agricultural potential and are likely to be made eventually with increased intensification and sophistication of agricultural practices. - Y7 -

8.44 Drainage and flood control works would be very desirable on medium low land (f-looded from 3 to 6 ft). sich land occupies about 15% of the cultivated areas and would require medium size drainage and embankment works. However, part of the area is likely to be intensified by using crop varieties such as IR-W42 that can tolerate water up to 5 ft if the flood does not start so early that rice is drowned as seedlings or if the flood does not rise verv raDidlv exceeding the prolonging cavacity of the plant.

8.45 Drainage and flood protection in deeply-flooded low land (flooded more than 6 ft) is not critical from the standpoint of agricultural production potential of the region as a whole during the next 10-15 years. Low land comprises about 15% only of the cultivated area where flood protection and drainage would require costly works. However, about 50o of the low land area consists of the Sylhet Basin for which no flood protection appears feasible. This leaves about 10% of the cultivated land which, from the point of view of the agricultural economy as a whole, might be regarded as of secondary interest. From the standpoint of sub-regional economies it is, however, of major importance especially in densely occupied areas such as around Dacca.

Control of Saline Water Inundation

8.46 The elimination of salt water inundation has rightly been given high priority in the coastal embanw1nt program. SOIl salin'ty has a strongly depressing effect on yields and must be prevented whenever economically feasible. full ueve±opmWn oi OI agricUUrUaL POutm1± UX the reclaimed polders, however, cannot be achieved without the introduction of irrigation and drainage. For that reason, water management Within the polders has become a very important and promising aspect of the Bangladesh water program.

Constraints

Limiting Land and Related Characteristics ;V

8.47 The inventory of land and related. characteristics reveals indirectly a number of constraints. For a portion of the cultivated land no improved technology is available. No technically and economic ally feasible package geared to current inputs exists for about 5 million acres of cultivated area. Only limited though significant improvements through current inputs are achievable on about 6 - 7 million acres of broadcast aus. It is not technically and economically feasible to provide irrigation water to perhaps half of Bangladesh. Finding drainage outlets to assure water run-off from shallow to medium deeply flooded areas, requires thorough investigation. No technically and economically feasible solution is available for the flood problems of deeply flooded areas comprising some 10% of the cultivated land. All in all, the land and water resource pattern is complex. - 98 -

Dealing with it will require a high degree of selectivity in development p-- nd sutA.i ieion1 and econ-oM-ic sophistication in implementation. Institutional Constraints

8.48 Past performance has been very uneven, varying from activity to nCt+vrj+jTr nr'forn'rm_nnr-a in s haq been highlv encouraging but has in others been highly disappointing. 8.49 Seed Supply Imported IR-8 seeds in the late 1960's and IR-20 around 1970 were brought into use with remarkable efficiencv. BRoth progranA were imnrovised. In the absence of comparrableprograms for two IRRI varieties released for distribution by Bangladesh Ri_Ge 'RAqP.rrh TnStitte_ int-Ge tehnr +-he distribution of improved seeds has been lagging. This highlights the point that seed distribution rpmains to hp instittintonn1i7Pd and nrnovidep wit.h reqiiroi facilities within the public sector, the private sector or both. "I 8.50 Fertilizers., (Fertilizer distribution has been one of the most reimark- able SUCce8a storiee tn dAte.- Thin 7-n8 hb.rout anouNt byr +hg A -4 - 4e r-l ' ---- L Corporation. However, much of the fertilizer distribution system has been built along the existing land transportation routes whi;h foPlow the _l- ground and are thus least flooded, best suited for improved, technology, and consequentlv areas where fertil izer application should have been actually has been started. However, in the next few years ADC faces the task of extending thess activities farther away from these tr+-, -I lines and thus faces an increasingly difficult logistics and commercial problem. The nast nroarams of ATC sJggests thatit can overcome the const-r-nts nhlerent in the above developments if it continues to show the determination of its past ferti_I7Preditutoefr+s

8.51 Pest Control.- Pest contrnl programs have been one of the areatest di_- appointments, andthe waste has been extremely high. Experience from Bangladesh and other counT-ies shows that the pvnv- zq-iRon of pffi nient pest o-nnt-rol iR onA of the most difficult tasks in agriculture, particularly in countries where small farms dor.ir.ate. This probler. has so far,n ^udA a"A ztt.pts u l o solve it. New hopes now rest on the use of granular pesticides, the application of whnichn is comparahle to that ofnPertlizers. Al SO organizationhl improvernert need, to be attempted, supported by intensive training programs. Finally, research on ddewvrejlopi pest- r.+.%i.,- crop --rieia + is cor.tnuirg f TIn ohrt,+ to date the impediments to improvement in the pest control area have proven overpowering. J See Volume V, Technical Report No. 13 2/ See Volume V. Technical Report No. lh 3/ See Volume V, Technical Report NIo. 15 - 99 -

8.52 Credit. Credit system development has proven to have many inherent constraints. To date all measures to strengthen the institutional credit system have led to meager results although the credit system has gone through many organizational reforms. The Agricultural Development Bank has been perhaps the soundest businesswise but it reaches only a limited number of farmers, normally operating bigger farms. The Cooperative Agricultural Credit has a performance record leaving much to be desired. Therefore, the Government has found it necessary to launch another reform of cooperatives based more on Comilla type cooperatives. The principal determinant of their success is likely to be the adequacy of the training effort - requiring a major undertaking - to support the development of required. personnel. 8.53 Advisory Work. Advisory work in agriculture has a very uneven performance record. It has made highly commendable contributions in fertilizers and seed distribution (IRRI rice varieties), and. expansion of low-lift pump irrigation, while it has accomplished.very little in improving the cultivation of crops such as jute, pulses and oilseeds; in irrigation, agronomy, and. irrigation water management. The advisory system has been able to bring into use only such technologies which have promised radical improvements to the farm economy while it has very little to show in spreading gradual all around improvements important to development in more advanced.countries. The deficiences of the advisory system have been well identified. They consist of insufficient training personnel, unsatisfacoty operating conditions for them, and inadequately planned extension programs, Solving the personnel problem is the key to the entire impro:vement effort in this institution, as well as in cooperatives and.other institutions. 8.54 Research. Breeding new rice varieties is the outstanding success of LasV a .icultoural LesearchL pro.gra. YV -Uch mo.L eV cUo. 'd hL%A benVVVLLL a>A uwMJ.L.Lshed even in rice research, with more diversified effort. Fru se PflO., .Les|et:;> As ULU 11u-t=iL-n:6-;lats4 UUsII: Ve4y J-LUULC,, uue w various institutional, personnel and. financial constraints yet to be overcome. Even if these constrainLts were lifted. i_U1ediately, it wo-uld..still taKe several years to build up a respectable research activity due to the limited base now. 8.55 Water Control InRut. Success in water development has varied §IAALW Wour V.LULU%%..L'.LVLJF JvVVA .VV y far tnsX We;i results have been achieved in irrigation developmaent by lowliTt pumps which has proven to be most easy to impiement. Tubewell irrigation has turned out to be more difficult to implement, and success has been more limited. Tne most difficult line of water development activity has been bringing multi-purpose polders into operation to provide flood control, drainage and irrigation. These efforts have been least successful, with only one minor polder completed. Great success has again been achieved. in emoanKment activities involving essentially earth work and the construction

/ See Volume VI, Technical Report No. 19 2/ See Volumes VII and VIII - 100 - of various regulator structors, such as the Coastal Embankments and Brahmaputra, Right Embankment Projects, but very little else has been accomplished. This reveals indirectly that the key to overcoming the constraints limiting water development activities has has been the pvoper selection of activities. These constraints are difficult to quantify but are real nevertheless, as shown by the past development effort. The above suggests also that with a careful selection of activities in the future, many constraints which have proven difficult in the past can be avoided.

Capacity for Innovation bY Farmers

8.56 Experience in Bangladesh shows that with adequate incentives, farmers are willing to accept inovations. An essential ingredient in this process is adequate purchasing power and. the capacity to run the risks inherent in inovation. The inovations adopted to date have been limited, for the most part, to larger farms which normallg spearhead inovation efforts in most countries. With development potential from new inovations bv this group largely exhausted, a broad.er base of inovation becomes more important if further development gains from this source are to be achieved. The spread of innovation in the future is therefore likely to depend increasingly on the availability of agricultural credit, i.e. overcoming difficulties associated with building up the credit system.

8.57 The constraints on the farm are further highlighted.by the fact that developments such as low-lift pumn irrigation are still denendent on public effort. In the absence of public support, little progress has been made in pnonularizing smnall pumps and tubewells (with less than 1 cusec capacity), although such developments have been extremely pro- minent undAr nomnarable fnrming conditionns in Tnd;iA_

8.58 Finally, farmers have not been ablep- nr their own initiative- to build-up, organizations to protect their interests, such as Farm Producers' Organi7ations and. Farm.ers Gnn np ra.Ai - nstead.a mensures to thiS effect have been imposed. on them by the government. These cooperative measures hnav thusq hbpn consnqi8Arl nnrt. of the pubhlic sector- in cont.rn.st. tn Central and, Northern European countries where comparable organizations are firmlv established, in the private sector=

T-Tiimnr fl1'f

8.5 Tisppic-n.M+m.rnn.t in in_ctitutio.enn1 norfewrmnnce anrn lrcargely att+r_- butable to a weak educational base. This conclusion inevitably emerges from the fact that manyr of the key insJtitutons were started.in the, npresert territory of Bangladesh only shortly after they were begun in many developed colwntreis.of Cer.t-ral andl Ve%"ther.n. INiTope. It+is no e%nHejo t-hat, altheough these developments flowered in Europe, comparable undertakings wilted.in Mr eas ke B Yr(gl tadaI F th a tS¶tiad lesso11aae%nemerges" tha+ ,,i m,on. resources development has to back up other development efforts in particular, organi"atiorel reforms. 10i1 -

CHAPTER IX

THE SAMPLE AGRICULTURE PROGRAM_/

Crops

Rice

9.01 The goal of the rice program would be to bring new varieties,_ accompanied Dy modern inputs, into use in areas ±UUv.".LtUd au sutable fUr them. In portions of these areas, irrigation would be an integral part of the package, -while 'i other areas irrigation would follow Lth some time lag.

9.02 The following changes in cropping patterns are projected by the 10th year:

Total Area (m. acres)

HYV broadcast aus replacememt of local broadcast aus 3.0 HYV transplanted aman replacement of local transplanted aLian L.64 Development of boro a~pd transplanted aus

Boro ( HYV) 0.7 Improve-ment of ewistingboro 1.0

9.03 LIe LrIP.bUs paIckage WUU'dU Ube dlwcL vLLhe s,t, iLn prcL LJLI, fLor comparable farming conditions although in practice application rates wsould vary.Fertilizer application. wou'd ayacrItoece ils from 225 lb per acre for HYV broadcast aus, with a projected yield level of 25 ma-nds paddy per acre to !8, lb fertilier per acre for M. boro, with a projected yield level of 50 maunds paddy per acre. The yield potential, in turnj has been estimated taling into acnt llI factnrs affecting yield such as adequacy of moisture and impact of drainage/flood problems. Allowqance has been made for improved pest control services. Pest control would be through use of granular insecticides wherever possible. Short-term credit would be provided to serve as a catalyst. The estimated reouirements are based on purchased inputs, seed, fertilizer, pesticides, pump fuel, pump rentals and the element for hired labor and draft animals.

9.o4 The intensive and minimum package programs/would include 4.0 million acres of irrigation: 1.3 million from tubewells, 2.5 million from low- lift pumps and 0.2 million from gravity irrigation. About 0.4 million acres of low-lift pumping would be in deeply flooded areas where replacement of low-yielding deepwater aman by HvV boro would give good returns. The boro crop would be the only paddy crop during the year in those areas, but advisory and inputs services staff would switch to juet work after the boro season. Rice would be in rotation with jute in the intensive jute inputs package program areas.

1/ See ChapterIII for Summary of Cost Estimates. 2/ Partly oy repiacing iocal broadcast aus or broadcast aman and partly by adding a second rice crop in areas where only one crop a year is growqn at present. 3/ See paras 5.01 through 5.13. _ 102 -

Jute

° 05 Jute production. pnyrected in the table below wolrld be tmimuated by an intensive drive, on about 1.5 million acres jute, in the 170 thanas of the concentration -eas. The jute r_ckage is based on improved varieties accompanied by appropriate inputs. Other important element of the jute i rn i+.putopankg,n c besides irnme-vvrovri.r!m-re4+-;ma <-e, +Aruiuol4no o Pf plant ing,I 1n4ne sowing, better thinning and weeding, correct fertilization, and adequate pl-.rotection., Seed A-ill oul bem providr-ed orlie o Iniih h introduction of line sowing,changes in cultivation techniques are drastic onid req-ire intensiv 4-4a ,-; ; '. or,A n; A-,,n

UJt-4e .SU- 4.D,-oA-c4o 1 JLAU LO.&ULLA -CLr.J.Trget

tLI. ~~~~a . aI IS..4. -J..4ASU A 4 ('000 acres) (bales/acre) (million bales)

Base year 2,465 2.90 7.2

Year 10 2,800 3.h6 9.7

9.06 Higher farmgate prices projected below4 4 would at first result in some acreag expansion, b-u l4i-al thea jute,, -a 4k - 1- - wonwa,?n,'d bring about a 30% rise in yields in concentration areas. Of the total increase of 1 .lor._ ' 4. in th-11e 4the -1969n/70-levels, -or,se .L.IAL.I. V.L U.")LIL_LJ.AL balesU0.4_ JAI 1 ULi `YearYedJ .JAJ'V'In over U±L 1i .J.77 J1 %/ _L.. -L O,V OUuIIU 2 million bales would come from concentration areas and some 0.5 million bales- . otI4 her areas.

.7 I VLJ.UllUU tb _lImU±i±_ItU -"inUtoUUc tiorULI of .LLI1.J aus VariL.0ties, lith ULrL'y Way to expand jute production in the short term and to establish a base for fL -vher gLvWUhLl LVU.Lu bUw le ±LZItnrIa l ±d.U-ILgdLUe prcie of raw JuUU--Uo at least Tks 36 per maund raw jute (see Technical Report No. 8). The stabiliza| md w tion 1fexpUoUrt qUantitlesr6% aidiU prices Uof jutu, sa preruquisUte for maintaining and improving Bangladesh's competitive position on the world mlarket ThLis rmiay require carr-ying a certain b-uffer stock fr L-year to year. Relatively limited stocks should be adequate to even out the year to year Iluctuations in Bangladeshn's supply. Annuial fiuctuations in production are about 10% from one year to the next. Bangladesh may have to undertake such stabilization measures alone--at least initially.

9.08 Bangladesh jute, the best in the world, has advantages over other soft fibers and over synthetics, and would be able to compete even at slightly higner price levels given stability of supplies. Jute products enjoy a technical advantage over competing products, particularly in the carpet backing trade. However, uncertainty oI supply--year to year fluctuations besides seasonal fluctuations, long supply lines and industrial labor problems--is a poweriul inducement towards conversion to synthetics. - 103 -

9.09 Continued growth of the jute processing industry will be required under the strategy proposed in this Study. Bangladesh shoulZd be able to strengthen its hold on the world market for manufactured jute goods, especially in the field of carpet backing and fill any gaps in the export market which may develop. Until now, the Bangladesh jute manufacturing industry has enjoyed many incentives, in particular, cheap raw material anu accompanying large profit margins resulting from policies pursued. However, in future, jute manufacturing industry will be facing an increasingly competitive situation. Therefore, the industry must bring dowqn production costs by at least 20%, to remain competitive on the one hand, and to allow farmers a reasonable raw jute price on the other.

9.10 Jute research, including manufacturing and marketing aspects, should receive the same status as technical rice research. The program woula need to cover all agricultural aspects, breeding, agronomy, and pest and disease control. At the same time, a program of industrial research should be devised to improve present products--especially carpet backing, the only rapid growth product of the industry. Future growth of the industry will depend heavily on the possibility of diversifying the end use of jute. 9.11 Economic research is required in the following fields: economics or jute cultivation, optimum farmgate price of raw jute, improvement possibilities in jute marketing arrangements; the role of existing and future Government marketing agencies; the effect of the statutory minimum price; the economics of stabilizing export supplies and prices; and the economics of alternative export price policies. Marketing studies should also examine the economic benefits, if any, that farmers would derive from grading of fiber, and from potential storage schemes supported by commodity credit. Other Crops

9.12 Of the minor food crops in Bangladesh, wheat, oilseeds and pulses require special attention. Wheat is eaten mostly by the urban population and is largely imported. The production of vegetable oils providing muc4- of the fats component and that of pulses providing much of protein, are inadequate for self-sufficiency. Out of 10 million acres of land suitable for these crops during the rabi season, almost 6 million acres are fallow at present. There are also 3 million acres of permeable highland soils suitable for summer oil crop production. Even with maximum development of rice irrigation, there would still be ample land for wheat, oilseeds and pulses.

9.13 Wheat. With the continuing shortage of foodarain. the wheat acreage will probably continue the trend of the past, and double within 10 years from 300,000 acres at present to 600,000 acres. Through extension and distribution of better see and fertilizers, yields shouldincree by 4 maunds per acre (above the present 8 maunds per acre) on the estimated 4 ontf' nnr~ P 4~4- 1,14,,,IT,.+ -4 ro P- VrA .T,y*lJi o PTn iir+Annv fAvrPaq_ft 3J0,000 acres of.JJ wVh.L1eat in VIM "Ir.--sve Rice.- ' Jut-t A rise of 2 maunds per acre is estimated elsewhere. Projected wheat productior. in 'year10% wo-'d be:

WUUU~U AVL1.LU ±!J '3LU_

Ar-ea YeldVIPJ- u IDrodu^- t io n (acres) (mds/acre) (million mds) (tons equivalent)

300,000 12 3.6 130,000 ,uuuuu wLu .).v*,vvv

Total 600,000 6.6 240,000

Assuming that rice production will continue to claLm first prio-ity, but that a suitable plow for dryland farming is developed, wheat production may rise to 1.5 million acres over a further 20-year period. W,ith betuer cultivation methods, the output should rise to 1 million tons. 9.14 In many other areas, the plowpan-/ necessary for rice cultivation prevents high wheat yields. The traditional plow is designed for rice cultivation and plowpan formation. Therefore, for successful production of wheat and most other winter crops, development of a suitable implement has high priority. Moreover, more intensive adaptation trials are needed to delineate the parts of Bangladesh best suited for high-yielding Mexican- type varieties. Adequate irrigation would double production. Wheat uses from 25% to 50% of the amount of water needed by rice under irrigation. 9.15 A careful analysis would be required whether more priority in winter irrigation should be shifted to wheat production -- perhaps by means of realistic water charges. At present the late aman harvest, cultivation difficulties and low wheat yields militate against irrigated winter wheat production, but future technological developments through research could reverse the situation. On balance, research and adaptation trials would be an important part of the wheat development effort. 9.16 Oilseeds. With large areas of suitable land available, the third priority of the agricultural strategy is self-sufficiency in vegetable oil. Out of the large number of oil crops presently grown in Bangladesh, rape and" mustard--t--hle largest' crop and preferred oil type--and groundnuts, the only expanding oil crop, are singled out for special attention. With limited reso-ur-ces, concentration on tnese two crops should pay off better than a dissemination of effort over the range of 10-12 oil crops found in Bgladesh±. TTINu le local preference is for rape and mustard oil, the ready acceptance of imported soya oil, properly refined, and the expansion of gro-iru-uiius production to date, had proved that oils other than rape and mustard oil are acceptable. 9.17 Groundnuts. Groundnut, besides having a high oil content, has a high proteini content and could well play a dual role as an important protein supplement and as the major source of vegetable oil. Oil cake and high

/ A layer of hardened soil 2-4"1 below ground level which impedes drainage and in many soils cannot be penetrated by plant roots. feed value straw would provide badly needed stock ieed. The Extension Directorate should continue its successful efforts to expand production and should give the groundnuts program a special emphasis in tne Northwest Concentration Areas where soils are particularly suitable. Acreage exansrion is expected to continue at least at the present rate and reach 500,000 acres after ten years. With 150,000 acres in the concentration areas yielding la maunds per acre and other areas yielding i0 maunds per acre, production would be as follows:

Shelled Nuts (tons)

Area of concentration 80,000 Other areas 130,000

Total 210,000

Oil equivalent at 40% oil recovery 84,000

9.18 An essential part of the effort would be measures to provide the required processing facilities to assure market outlets. This might be best done by providing credit, foreign exchange and technical assistance to suitable entrepreneurs through existing finance corporations. Small units would avoid supply problems inherent with large processing plants. The program would also require a determined agricultural research support in the field of variety improvements, fertilization, land preparation and general agronomy. Trials could be linked to a pulse improvement program at a later stage, when plant breeding and legume bacteriology problems may need to be solved.

9.19 With research-based yield improvements, the expansion of the groundnut crop should continue and reach 2 million acres over a 30-year period. This represents the total amount of land suitable for groundnut production without irrigation. Estimated production would be 1.5 million tons shelled nuts, equal to 700,000 tons of oil. With only half the quantity of seed required to meet projected oil requirements--taking account of the production of other oil seeds--there would be a 750,000 ton surplus to help meet the demand for vegetable proteins for human consumption, at present provided by pulses.

9.20 Rape and Mustard. With the price of rape and mustard seed at Tks 45 per maund and average yields reported at between 5 and 6 maunds per acre, and at least 5-6 million acres of suitable fallow land are available in the dry season, it is hard to explain why production has not expanded in the last 20 years. First priority must therefore be research and intensive field trial work--including variety trials--to lay the basis for future expansion. Nevertheless, a modest increase in production on the order ot 25,000 tons oil is proJected during the first ten-year Deriod. the results of some trial work allied to follow-up demonstrations and extension. The technical problems which have prevented expansion to date do not seem to be severe and should be solved within ten years. Consequently, the subsequent expansion of the area under brassica crops should be raDid and rise to 1.5 million acres over 20 years, yielding 250,000 tons oii. - IU. -

9.21 Pulses. Pulses are the main source of protein other than that contained in cereals. In contrast, yield improvements possible at present are small and to achieve them would require an improved implement. In view of increasing irrigation with a consequent switch to paddy, a decline in the production of pulses is more likely than an increase, and only a research breakthrough into higher yielding varieties would stimulate increased production. Intensive grain legume research in Bangladesh is needed to break away fran the static production of the last 20 years and fram the lack of high-yielding varieties. The likelihood of a genetic breakthrough cannot be predicted. It may well be that pulses will cease to play the central role as a major source of protein if the development of high protein content cereals materializes. Since increased grain legume production. is a Droblam cammon to most developing countries, Bangladesh might be able to benefit from international research.

9.22 Sugar. Low cane vields and high cane production costs are the root causes of many of the problems which beset the sugar industry in Bangla- desh. Flnoding or waterlogging for nart of the year (because cane is nlanted on unsuitable areas) and drought at other times of the year are mainly resnonsible for low vields; the sugar recoveryv is further reduced by slow delivery of cane to factories. In addition, standards of agronomy are low. Government has already identified manv of the nroblems and has plans for intensified extension work. A specialist advisory service of 20 graduates andt200 n diploma holders had been proposed who, together with field staff from sugar factories, would launch a program of demonstrating and teaching improved cane technology.

9.23 To increase the productivity of white sugar mills will require _onsder.hle ffots".c anditdeA=+-lod invstgair

9.24 A flexible price for cane and sugar sho_ld allowL-ur- bot_h and wllite sugar factories to find the correct level of production, dictated by rI1iaeet d.emliddIU. .tL U vlDI gU-a LnIu_ UUv-YWLVU-LU UeneLLu± _ LILI aLC% UIOUC" LcInu advisory program dealing with equipment and processing improvements. 107 -

9.25 Competition for suitable land dictates a policy of increasing production by yield improvement rather than acreage expansion. Assuming no irrigation, a research-backed extension drive--supported by adequate credit--should raise cane production to about 6 million tons cane over 10 years. Allowing 20% for seed waste and other uses, tome 4.8 million tons would be available for processing. Assuming improved sugar extraction, combined production of sugar and gur, estimated at about 280,000 tons at present, could rise to 450,000 tons. Cane yield improvements should continue as they have in other countries. On the assumption that irrigation will continue to be used exclusively for grain and vegetable production, a rise in cane production to 8.5 million tons is forecast for year 30, corresponding to some 700,000 tons of sugar.

9.26 Tea. Local tea industry leaders have identified the essential problems of the industry and their solutions. The take-off base for development should be the provision of long-term stability of land tenure for tea plantations. This should encourage all-around improvements in tea plantation husbandry. The improvements would include the filling of gaps left by dead tea bushes, and all-around improvements in cultivation practices. An irrigation potential of about 30,000 acres of tea gardens has been identified and there is a 50,000 acres potential to additional tea land to be nlanted. Polder tea gardens (some 50-100 years old) need replanting. Development of irrigation is necessary for establishment of high-yielding clonal planting material. Tea nrocessing needs improvement; factory equipment is wearing out or getting obsolescent, and factory capacity must he enlarged to nrocess the expanding cron. The factory improvements under consideration include a feasibility study for piping natural gas to supply power for tea factories. Tea production mights benefit also from some technical assistance and certainly from adequate allocations of foreign exchnngA to enahle the imnorts of requiired nroduction renuisites and exchange of technical information with other tea producing areas.

9.27 With some new plantings of higher yielding strains and generally rising level of management, a 5% increase in yield by 1980 has been projected by a Bank appraisal mission. The mission estimated that prhduction will rise from 68 million lb at present to 99 million lb by 1980. However after the changed, situation, much of the future expansion is liWl-yo+den- pend on finding replacements for the falling off of the Pakistan market. In this respect the correct pricing of tea in terms of foreign exchanre would be crucial. With 80% of all Bangladesh tea consumed in Pakistan, auction prices in Chittagong were Tks 3.0 a lb. The valuneofn milar grades of tea on the London market is about Tks 1.50 a lb at the official exchange rate.

9.28 A US$9.6 million project with a USt5 million fnreign xnchange component for tea factory improvement irrigation equipment, assistance to tea research and a feasibility study for pining naturnl gas to tea factones, has been appraised by the Bank. The project is to enable the tea industry to meet processing requirements for a five-vear neriod And needs then +o be followed by further investments in processing equipment. -With labor costed, at full financial cost the project may show a low rate of re+u +r.n economy. However, there is no alternative employment opportunity for the labor force and the true incremental cost to the economy may not be more than the cost of extra food and other bare necessities of laborers due to their work on the gardens as against their lower consumption in disguised unemployment if tea industry employment were not available. The cost to the economy has been estimated at a half of the current agricultural labor cost of Tks 3.50 a day. With these assumptions and considering the capital investment already made in the industrv (at least Tks 500 million), a modest investment to markedly improve thie performance of the industry should be economically justified. However. the nroiect needs re-evaluation in light of the new and competitive market situation now facing the industry.

9.29 Tobacco. The shortfall in production is in flue cured tobacco wrhich could be meat hv 1 0nofl-2n_nnn acres aA against lj500 acres grown in 1QO6/70. The private sector industry, with Government assistance, is trying to build unp t.he fluie mirp a g Fuel srn^l ie for nrin-i ng barns are c and studies are needed to explore alternatives, including natural gas. ('rprlit for oon.triinti;n of mirincy hnrns would. qn,A, up t.hp r7opmnnent. nf this crop; the requirement has been tentatively estimated at Tks 20 million. Exceptionanlly conod P-1nqion andr research are plroU-rvidre by +.hp largr 1-r,-r companies. WJhile the bulk of all tobacco (air cured) is grown in Rangpur District,the best potential for expanding flue cured tobacco is in the Ganges-Kobadak project irrigation area (tobacco, a winter crop, needs ; y, ,; +-4 nr8 1'ha A P4M- .+ +^A AT 4-1,a -A-+ 4 a 11P 4tl,,y,-4 4-a1- 1 -5& 5 a U.-;JWA * 1 U U.XWF V -.VVo V W ULI' M AtAu U E S.J.L | . UV JC. V warrant further support. However, tobacco expansion can only make a small con4trbLhution- to 4the econ-mo,y un'less large scale expo'ts can lbe developed. '.LLLU .JAJUU.LUJl UVL ,I1V .ALUo LIVLIL wuLLL o J..L16 Q ~L.L AJ1AJ L..L UU kA V-_LP " Because of the low yields even in experiments to date and because most of the tUobacco prodUctionUof 7 r.ilLLLlio lb per. yeCar d.UatpreseL1IS consistU oi. smaI.ll patches of backgarden grown tobacco of low quality which is unsuitable for starting exports on a trial buasiLs, it 4is ur'ikel 4that 'D-nl s coul Q~UL1 U~± ULI~U~ Lii ~ U± La.L _ U _L Ui"±LXUL,y Uil~.U LJLJ,LLV1 %.UUU±' hope to become a major tobacco exporting country in the next decade. However, production wilJl- p robaiLo.Ly AVVI) paVeJtAd.UULPJ0.;U W±ULi tUiiee poua.L VLLt re L rolw tjio 110 million lb in year 10 and to 180 million lb in year 30.

9.30 Horticulture. Horticulture crops--a group of probably more than 100 diUf.f.Lerent fl.-Uit andU vegetab,le cro7s--ocC u oULrethanI 1m±ll-Lion acries of land. Much of the production is on elevated village mounds, an acreage which does not lend itself to rapid e-pansion. Like all hortic-u't-ur-al industries, producers suffer from seasonal fluctuation in production, storage limitations and transport problemns. Potatoes have shio-iw outstanding growth and now occupy about 200,000 acres. Yields are low but a technology package exists to impfrove yields. D-ue to poor keeping qualit-y, the n,eed for cold storage of seed and frequent reintroduction of seed, potatoes is almost a luxury food. There has already been some surplus production and the search for seasonal export outlets has been disappointing. In view of market limitations anu the considerable resources and technical efforts whicCh thnis crop requires, the economic justification for expanding production should be established before comm-nitting more reso-urces to this crop. Condiments and spices--a large group of crops--also classified as horticultural crops occupy 350,000 acres. Chillies, the most important of these crops, grow particularly well in Bangladesh. Seasonal export opportunities to other Asian countries should be explored. - 109 -

9.31 Lhere is a large group of tree crops. Betel palms are of considerable econamic importance. The acreage declined steadily over 20 years dup to an unknown disease. Coconuts are important as a source of food in the Coastal areas. There is scope for increasing the acreage. Tree crops are of particular interest for the Chittagong Hill Tracts, especially rubber and cashew nuts. The latter, while offering fairly low returns per acre, require little labor skill or care and flourish in sandy soils not well suited to other crops. The existing small industry has processing problems and technical assistance is necessary to set up one or more processing plants. Alternatively, there may be opportunity for exporting raw nuts to India for the time being. Better marketing arrangements or provision of processing plants would probably stimulate rapid expansion of cashew nuts.

9.32 Rubber cultivation is the responsibility of the Forest Industries Development Corporation. Small plantations established to date have given good yields under efficient management. Further technical assistance may be used to explore the possibility of expanding plantations to meet internal requirements for rubber.

9.33 In the absence of large domestic and export markets, and due to the IjILL,.naur L ofU 1±v±UhotiC 'ur .L~JC-JL crops as thseofelvateAU1±UU J.L VVGO u " Lvillag VLJACL %, sites hes crops have received little attention in the past and no significant technology packages exist for them at present. This li.-its the extension effort in the foreseeable future but more intensive research efforts would be -warranted. Research' s,,o'ld concentrate on thl'e r.ost '.-1portuantl cro-ps of thile group. Priority should further be guided by market oriented studies into export opportunities of crops, to break the sole depenrnuee on jute as an export crop.

Livestock

9.34 The Government's animal husbandry efforts have been oriented toward animal health rather than production. These priorities warrant re-examination. The system of thana clinics and District Animal Hospitals is not suitable for preventive medicine or to control disease outbreaks. Funds to expand clinics and hospitals would be better spent to increase the number of field staff veterinarians and assistants, and provide them with adequate vehicles and equipment. A central diagnostic laboratory is necessary to provide field staff with back-up services. Field staff should be mobile to enable them to trace disease outbreaks early and to control them by mass vaccination. The Livestock Directorate should provide disease prevention services in future rather than emphasize curative services as in the past.

9.35 Farmers receive no animal husbandry advice at present. Such advice should become the responsibility of the Extension Dirmetmr,ato which, with its larger staff, could implement improvement schemes more _ 110 - effeetively. Qualified animal husbandry officers trained at Mymensingh Un±versity and -w±u-i -A. --- 'L so-adb recr-u'ted4 ar.d stationed a District Headquarters. The Livestock Directorate would, however, retain responsib'uity.y fLor dUisease conrol anu artieia insem±Slina-t lA' io--n 'aI).. Research work needs strengthening and needs to focus on the most urgent _~~~ _ n __ Al - - _ _ _ n I - _ ~- -1 _ - A _ . probule-ms Lncluding matters rela wd Lo adequate stock feeilng, improved Al techniques, increased supply of farm power by draft animals, appropriate implements, and the role of livestock in farm economics. Research should be interdisciplinary and include farm economics and farm management aspects. An adequate budget shouid be provided for researcn services. The Livestock Directorate and the University of Mymensingh should collabo- rate in the research program.

9.36 In addition to institutional reorganization, three development schemes have been identified by an FAO/IBRD Cooperative Program mission: First, a scheme for expanding vaccine production and for vaccine potency testing with the total cost of the scheme estimated at US$3 million. Second, a pioneer cattle improvement project combining upgrading of cattle by AI, better feeding, regular deworming, and disease control. The objective is 40-50% heavier animals (capable of pulling improved implements) and a 15% decrease of stock numbers so that upgraded animals have adequate feed. The main objective of the project is improvement of draft power although extra meat and milk production should also result. The cost of the cattle improvement scheme has been estimated tentatively at US$0.5 million. Third, a pioneer poultry improvement scheme to upgrade poultry and improve disease control and feeding. Improved animals would convert available waste grain into meat and eggs more efficiently. The cost of the scheme was projected at US$0.2 million. The project requires further preparation and should incorporate a study of the limitations to crop development due to lack of draft power, and a study for improving feeding and feed supply.

9.37 Adequate vaccine production and improved veterinary and animal husbandry services are basic to general livestock improvement. A program for regular control of internal parasites and for encouraging improved feeding should become a part of intensive crop production programs. Widespread introduction of a cheap urea/molasses protein supplement to allow better straw utilization and intensive catch cropping might also help to ease the cattle feed situation. Regular deworming and better feeding would strengthen farm animals, and reduce crop production constraints from lack of draft power. Anti-helminthics should be supplied free. The estimated cost of Tks 5 per head would amount to about Tks 30 million per year for treating animals in the proposed concentration areas. Treatment would include the sheep and goat population for which little else can be done in the foreseeable future.

9.38 A considerable quality improvement in hides and skins, which at present earn the country Tks 75 million export revenue per year, is possible by providing better facilities in slaughterhouses and by the use oI proper skinning knives. To remain competitive on the world market, the processing industry needs a more liberal import policy for the purchase of modern equipment.

9.39 Overall there is little prospect for a dramatic increase in livestock products for human consumption. The Government forecasts growth targets of 3% per annum for milk and meat and 2% for eggs. Given this improvement in services and the projects described above, these targets should be attainable.

Fisheries

9.40 As already noted, fishing holds a unique position in the economy of Bangladesh. It ranks second only to agriculture as an economic activity. Roughly 5 million people depend directly or indirectly on captive fishing and culture fisheries for their livelihood. Fish forms the second staple diet of the people and accounts for over 80% of the per capita intake of animal protein. Few regions in the world enjoy such vast fisheries resources within their boundaries and territorial waters as does Bangladesh,

9.41 Technical Report No. 11 presents a tentative outline of the inland fisheries situation. It lists ten investment schemes and eight research projects. These should receive early and critical review within Bangladesh.

9.42 The Fisheries Directorate will have to be strengthened if it is to manage a large investment and research program. Graduates in fisheries from Mymensingh University have in the past sought employment outside of the Directorate because of its poor salary structure in relation to other Government and private employers. As part of the investment and research program, serious work will have to be done to build up the expertise of the country. The undertaking of eight research projects will strain the existing expertise beyond its capacity. Research projects should, therefore, include training components as well as assistance to the University.

9.43 An immediate requirement if inland fisheries are to be developed is that the Ministry of Finance, Revenue and Planning forsake the past practice of managing water bodies solely for revenue purposes. These water bodies will fall under the Directorate of Fisheries and the Directorate will - 112 -

have to be charged with the preservation of the existing stock of fish, the development of fisheries. particularly in areas which are important for breeding. This will maintain an open market situation for fishermen. and Drovide services to fishermen to reduce their denendence on money lenders and middlemen. Finally, the Fisheries Directorate should also be routinelv consulted in connection with the studv and implementation of water control schemes.

Tmnlementtinon of Current Tnputs Proirnm

944 Tne current inputs program would be implemented througn two approaches -- the Minimum and Intensive Package Programs. The Minimum Package Program wculd assure expeditious promotion of new IRRI rice varieties and of improved seeds for varieties already in use, as well as known innovations for the production of crops such as jute. It would be based on the use of the available extension organization. Although the more enterprising farmers would undoubtedly apply reasonably high doses of other inputs with seeds, many if not most farmers would limit application rates to modest levels in absence of strong support from agricultural services and of demonstration by neighbors. The Intensive Package Program would bring modern inputs packages into use in areas where multiple cropping can be applied, either without or with irrigation. In those areas, agricultural services would be specially strengthened and special emphasis would be placed to reach high rate of inputs application and a majority of farmers. In these areas, the Minimum Package Program would be a preparatory stage for the subsequent Intensive Package.

Minimum Package Program

9.45 The Minimum Package approach would ensure that new rice varieties 4 ar A-M -.-. +--+--nA te,- nkle -f4t ..re. - asC soonA as a +- seed--- A is available to introduce the seed together with the relevant technology package to -"' -4t+aeI areas. P4e wo',1d b +1-he -.n 4-por-tar+ crop .F CL U'. 0.-L.J. 0 L..4. L0.L 0.L&V=o. IW '4A.L'.A IOV W4L10 MA'. 0U .LWIJk4.JL 1C401V1 %..~LV to be dealt with followed by jute, wheat and groundnuts. The overpowering i or+.ofl approach -,n.- a 0-afror,, ,.-ou6- ras iA^r.L4 4 as ..IJJ.YLJC. UI 0.% , U.L 14110 CLJJ_C%~1WIOI 00 .L. VAIL e-LOL ouA sLUa r e. s0.J.UL de C.LJ...04 -00 suitable for improved varieties and irrigation.

9.46 As alreacly noted the Minimum Package Program would follow

UUII jJlcL4I IIU-1V.L WIOJE (LULL LOL L1.LUOW J. 4.VUUAL.;1U.LULAI A. _VrU ACIL 0.CLL111.;ILO% U 11 L 1970 under which seeds of new varieties have been made available in HLa t.A±areas together wi.h complUm" nta.y q.tities - 113 - of fertilizers and pesticides. The Minimum Package Program would spread ijnovat4on to abnut 30% onf the farmers in any given area withi-n 10 vears; which is comparable with the most ambitious programs elsewhere. However, in parrularlyfavornble arens, the Miniymi Pac-kage Program would hp preparatory to the introduction of the fall range of supporting services pr~,4,ovidediby oti+. Irt a r.sv Packriage Pw.na,'m.

o ).7 Arena +to habe ^1itAA 4 +.he vrn geach seasonn weuldj 'him salec-ted by consultation between research, administrative and advisory services, to

decide s eA toQQ+ 'Dulkmand +the quan+A.4+.A r.f' q_aaA T-Q+.i 1nd ot.her inputs to place in the chosen areas at the right time. The Tks 2 million (TTQ(tO.QO A)n a year tr44iniv g eg mallowso for 50,000 +.Tr_4tnl4la Ays,r for- / J--x - - -5*.A~ 1-5 -a. J..-a.1.-- - staff and 500,000 training days for farmers. Staff would be given special 4.4 ni- fo. ne. see a ar.d acrarn a acen? a.. orrefrshe tra4nin where their task would be the support of farm-to-farm distribution of seed 4 previously introduced.A 'nu-----u--The .ese ser ces WlA +.*a a wi -4ni "a-++ ~.L~VJJU.OLJ .L1IL-USIJ A%.oVU* .L1 VA L1Q. ML1.1 D LJ V.Ai. W%JAj.~. U L F wjJ'J~ L~A'ILU j.'A. in staff training. Trained staff would teach the new technology to farmers' Leaders ir. day cur-ses atLuThana, Tra 1.LJ1ring and Centers (TDC.

9.48 Field demonstrations remaain the best tool for the extension wo1Mer to introduce new varieties and to teach new technology. An allocation of TkS 2ilJ.L.LonIC \U20PCUV,VVJ/ a yearLi prop`osUe L.Lt.L±U Uf1¶filI,ra.lonlstujIons. This would allow 20,000 one-half acre field demonstrations per year to be conu'uLLcted bjy exter.sion staaff in cooperation,Wi.h ICAi-0z.L. Pa-tL of tIhel f-.LUsLUO would provide materials to the well-staffed and well-equipped agricultural inform.ation center in,Dacca for the s-upply- of audio-vis-ual supporting materials. Finally, there would be Tks 1 million (US$140,000) per year provision for saff incenti,vs -- up to mi'Tks 200o (U'$2CU) per extoensi.on worker per year paid for meeting targets. This type of operation was successDully pioneered by the 1> 70 Accelerated Rice rroduction Prrogr-n as mentioned.

9.49 The Minimum Package approach would enable the best farmers rapidly to adopt new seeds and related tecnnology. Their example would be emulated by large numbers of neighbors, so that the new crop varieties would be speedily and widely distributed. With one extension worker to 1 ,500 iargely ill-educated farmers and with credit not readily available to the mass of smaller farmers, hne new seeas woula give some yield increase Dut prODaDly only on the order of half the increase possible with a more intensive approach. However, the immediate widespread distribution of new seeds would lay the foundation for an intensive approach possible when additional staff becomes available.

intensive Inputs Package in Concentration Areas

9.50 Extension Work. The Intensive Package Program would be concentrated in areas where multiple cropping with improved inputs can be practised -- i.e., where (a) broadcast aus or Jute can be followed by transplanted aman; (b) areas with irrigation where transplanted aman can be followed by a boro crop; and (c) areas where Jute is grown on more than 10% of the cultivated land. The actual areas selected for this concentration program have been identified on the basis of land capability information and maps. In these areas, it should be possible to achieve a - 114 - dissemination of improved practices over 80% of the farmers within a 10-year time frame. However, this would require far greater extension staff concentration and better trained extension workers than have been available so far. This will call for a special training effort and, therefore, the build-up of the Intensive Package Program is likely to be relatively slow at first.

9.51 The conoentration areas can be expected to become heavy rice sUrplus areas. Production effort will therefore have to be supported by adequate marketing, including transport. To help accommodate adequate draft animal power requirements for timely land preparation. a livestock improvement scheme would be part of the concentration area program; and for the same reason. increased emohasis would be called for in research for varieties wit4 shorter maturity periods. Speed of implementation of the intensive inunts nrograns is determined by staff availability; rate of tubewel.l construction, and rate of irrigation group formation by farmers.

9.52 This program would involve the expenditure of Tks 1,060 million (WsUi5o million) over 10 years and the empnlovment of an Add tiHnal 825 agriculturail graduates and 3,900 agricultural diploma holders. The extension staff wueld be mobille so that senior staff v-cmld axeriewiess adAqnute supervision and so that field staff could reach all parts of their work area=. ot-or ven.les or boats.. and adsnrnates opey.tinag Aivsln i,,nl1 ho necessary for Thana Agricultural Officers, sub-division and District head- qunart;ers s+tff and an ade,qatn+te tra.nell -ng a-13ToT'nce for iTuMaA- 4-- --+ - Assistants.

9.53 The Plant Protection Services should be drastically reorganized. .LA_The -A.S&i .L &VIA - AJ%WVlD 10.,11J.L WUJJ jJ . 10 k~.A.LLIAWStS( OJIJ U'U..".)rad A ..sellOVL pesticidesi~ D.L..JL%AW O6JIA%.d applicators through the farm inpats dealership system. Farmers would apply 0 pesticidesr th6se.s & 1 WJWQ.DWI.LA "~UAU~JUke eo onJ. 4emvaiU-vq -~Ug use of-OL 5&L-UALuima-'r h'pesti-U cides which, though more expensive, are more effective and easier to apply than 8p,z'; the applIcation iS coma-z'.vl6e toIto Stat4to .ier fam a414r to a larger nmmber of farmers in Bangladesh. Specialist plant protection staff w0 'd ble rUespons-ILI.Le .4fr pUeLst scouOtLJang., aud fOr. autvsng an traning staff and farmers; in fact, they would be specialists who reinforce the -0. ext-er siarnetalvff. JA-ueachu of.ULM -2nn.az. tz-=_ existing plant protection staff would be increased by a mobile scouting team of two assistant plant protection officers. Th ey would build p a composite picture of pest status at all times, so that timing and application of pest control can be scheduled to coincide w-ith early outbreak stages. 9.54 Animal husbandrx might become the responsibility of the agricultural extension services. To achieve positive re-uxifs, present au .ture staff would need appropriate training. A graduate animal husbandry officer could be posted to each Diatrict -neadquarters, to condauct in-service staff training and to guide field staff. Because lack of draft power could become a limiting factor to agricultural intensilfcation in concentration_ areas, the primary objective would be improvement of draft animals quickly by better feeding and by introducing parasoite control on a larger scaLe. - 115 -

9.55 A youth program could be planned for areas of concentration, to reinforce the small existing program. This could be directed from national headquarters. By means of small projects, children can help diversify the family diet and sometimes help to introduce new farming techniques.

9.56 An extension program for women could be introduced with 157 thanas of the seven districts where most intensive agricultural development has been planned -- Dinajpur, Rangpur, Barisal/Patuakhali, Dacca and Mymen- singh/Tangail. The women's program might include health and nutrition advice. Instruction would take place at the TTDC and the extension worker would need a properly equipped classroom. It may be difficult to find women with agricultural training for these posts; teaching qualifications with home economics would be satisfactory. Graduate staff would need overseas training and diploma staff at least six-month special training locally. The program would initially require technical assistance. 9.57 Cooperatives. The cooperative program, with an objective of setting up about 73,000 Comilla type village primary cooperatives in a ten- year period costing Government Tks 1,660 million may be the most ambitious part of the agricultural development program. The objectives are to ensure that initially in concentration areas and eventually in the whole country all farmers would have access to current inputs and credit besides advice. At present only wealthier farmers benefit from the new technology and a dynamic widely accepted cooperative program is necessary to allow poorer farmers to participate in accelerated agricultural development. Cooperative development would therefore be an essential part of the Concentration Areas program.

9.58 The present cooperatives lack dynamism and are not able to expand to serve the broad mass of the farming population. It is therefore proposed that the existing cooperatives be replaced by the Comilla system known as Integrated Rural DeveloDment (IRD) -- a two-tier svstem of small village primary societies federated into Thana Central Cooperative Associations (TCCA). The small village societv has been evolved by the Comilla's Academy for Rural Development and has been demonstrated in Comilla and a number of other districts. Membership ner societv is only ho to qO. which is small enough for all members to know each other well and share the same intArnsts- This minimizAs frinntnn withiin.h p ar nd henls to mnintain discipline and gives a feeling of participation to members. The village socr-ieties wouild federa?te inton TrY.A whirch szh^m-v1liatwd +e^he real bsns entity while the village society would be only its internal working arm.

9.59 ln the past, primary societies have mostly had to rely on irri- grationD -- as a- economic~,~.j... Just-i-N-Jon ~ forw&J~-ceoperation4 ,W ±OIAL.LVI.I _ &UIJILV,_ _ L 5.. a1 - -FJCU15-mn-ames - * PqUW,u-,_ new aus and aman paddy varieties provide sufficient economic stimulus to base priary cooperative societies o ra-infed agriculture. Primary cooperatives would aim to arrange farm inputs, credit and training for members and, where irrigation is available, be responsible for the operation of irrigation pumps and for water dist.ribution. Capital formation by regular saving would be one-of the objectives. Each cooperative would be registered by the Cooperatives Directorate and would elect a five-man management committee, a manager (to act as executive of the committee) and a model farmer. TCCA would be managed by a committee elected by primary cooperatives. The Associations would employ management staff (in existing TCCAs senior staff consists of a project officer, a deputy project officer and an accountant), a field inspectorate and village accountants. The field inspectorate would assist society managers and would primarily be responsible for the planning, disbursement and supervision of credit. The TCCA would in the first instance deal only with credit for constituent societies, raising revenue to meet part of its expenditure by means of an 8% fee incorporated in loan interest rates. Existing TCCAshave launched into a number of other activities -- tractor hire pools, fertilizer trading, produce marketing and business investment -- generally unsuccessfully. In view of this, new TCCAs should diversify their activities only with extreme caution; distribution of inputs and produce marketing would be the first fields for broadening TCCA activities.

9.60 The cooperative program would be supervised by the newly created Rural Development Board. The Board would superintend the recruitment and training of senior TCCA staff and would have an office in each District Headquarters. District project officers would supervise and help TCCA staff and liaise with other Government agencies involved in rural development. IRDP would replace the existing multipurpose cooperative societies in Con- centration Areas. This would be a gradual process and multipurpose union cooperatives and Central Banks would meantime continue to operate. Elsewhere existing cooDeratives continue to operate during the ten-year Deriod. Energetic efforts should be made to improve existing cooperatives and in particular to recover outstanding debts.

9.61 The CooDerative Directorate would therefore play a Drogressivelv smaller role in direct operation of Cooperatives. Its function with IRDP would be registration and audit of societies.

9.62 The size of the Droposed ten-year cooperative Drogram has been based on one cooperative society for 100 acres (in irrigation areas this would mean two irrigation numDs Der societv) for the 7.3 million acres development in concentration areas -- a total of 73,000 societies federated into 263 TGGAs. Because of the enormity of this task cooneratives development efforts should be confined to concentration areas.

9.63 The size of individual TCCA would vary with the projected develop- mentnntensitv of the thana. GonnnPom-ntIv_ -staff requirements and costs have been based on units of 100 primary societies. The number of units per - 117 - thana would vary fran 2-4. The distribution of the cooperative effort during the first ten-year period is shown on the following table:

No. 1/ No. 2/ Thanas in Area of No. Co-op. No. Concentra- Develop- Co-ops. Units Units tion ment No. of Per Per Per District Areas ('000 Ac.) Co-ops. TCCA TCCA District

Dina-pur 18 600 6,000 333 3 5X Rangpur 30 1,200 12,000 400 4 120 Bov,ra 12 340 3.400 283 3 36 Rajshahi 13 160 1;600 123 2 26 Pabna 11 170 1,700 155 2 22 Kushtia 9 110 1;100 122 2 18 Je8sore 15 230 2.300 153 2 30 Barisal ) 32 1,140 11,400 357 4 124 Patuakhali ) Faridpur 22 530 5,300 241 2 44 T)acna 28 570 1,600 203 2 56 Mymensingh ) 1,600 16,000 320 3 150

Comilla 19 500 5,000 263 3 57 N.^akha_1 ;I 130 130 325 39 12t

TOTAT. 263 _ 72,800 - - 749

9.64 The rate of establishing cooperatives would be coordinated with the rate of a. icul+trnl developme nt anAd r.ou d be. as 4'fol w1

Y e. a r 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10

No. Cooperative T s-4- +ished An An 0 12In nn I2On Iin UAI.LVO £II VU&M..l-J.4SV..I '.Jw J'S VW I L&J &Wu.. I GW~ I 7 -

~~~~M0- An% i n OntA '3e)n ef)n AI1.n o71 RunI.LL,g ±i. 60.J 120IJITotal 2 30L 0 44 %J 4749

9.65 The necessary staff per unit of 100 societies has been estimated as one seio± r .fficr(eithrLL po.R.U0±jU,U Vh Udputy project ofllicer or accountant of the TCCA which would consist of two or more units) seven field inspectors (one to 14 cooperatives) and ore village accouLtant to 10 societies. This compares with one inspector to seven societies and one village accountant Al. _ :___4 _ :__|.^1I _T-|_n4--m .^ M__vn - _ _1__ E I --__- to LfiVe societieb atL CoULia KtWaLi TOGA, viXtually double tne staffiing uen- sity of the now proposed staffing pattern. The total requirements for 749 units

I2/ AhCooperatieU i 10 prm a cs Ae. 2/A Cooperative Unit is 100 primary cooperatives. A unit used for cost estimates. - 118 - making up 263 TCCAs are 749 senior staff and 5,250 field insDectors and 7,490 village accountants.

9.66 Staff and farmer training should be an essential part of the program. Senior TCCA staff -- mostly university graduates -- would continue to train at the BARD. The BARD course should put more emphasis on accountancy and business management than in the past. Inspectorata staff at presnnt receive only in-service training. This would be replaced by training partly at the eiaht Oovernmant nonnarativa training Institlute and nnrtlv St distrint training centers to be established in each district of the concentration areas R^s4Arntial trini?nt vnilei aljn be nrnovided fnr e-nnnprative snoietv r~------managers and village accountants. The main purpose of district training e-enters in +thA long run would be to offer regular res4-dent trn4n4ng corses and seminars to cooperative society committee members. Due to inadequate training, comittee and ot-her --- ie m-mbers do not understand the prerequisite Of success of the cooperative enterprises clearly -- particularly +wh*uy do r.ot+ appreciaten+ +~hv 4mvui4 i,anc 0t adequatea w.ol,,, of bnsiness., ai.d sound business management based on competent staff. This has been identified as onne of +V% aafi4. prole of^hlam^P.sJ Gmlla. typ0 J.LV a. CHAPMTR' X

TIE SAMPLE -wAFeR PROGRAM=/

General

10.01 The ultimate physical objective of the water development program in Bang1adaabh is complete water control, i.e. provision of irrigation, drainage and protection against floods. Complete water control includes the following components:

(1) irrigation;

(2) prevention of saline inundation (the Coastal Embankment Program);

(3) drainage and flood control;

(4) prevention of saline intrusion into streams and estuaries and creation of fresh water basins; and

(5) maintenance of a minimum flow in channels for the following purposes: (a) control of saline intrusion; (b) navigation; (c) irrigation; (d) fisheries; and e water quality control 10.02 Floods occur regularly in several areas of the Ganges and Brahma- putra plains of India, particularly in the Assam valley and along the Ganges tributaries. However, flooding in Bangladesh is far more extensive than in India. The flood problems in the higher reaches of rivers take the shape of river spills, bank erosion and river erosion, but these are complicated in- the lower reaches where the inundation of flat lands is aggravated by siltation, river migration, salt water intrusion, tidal effects and storm surges.

10.03 Fresh-water flooding in Bangladesh is caused by: (a) Overtopping of the major rivers, mainly the Brahmaputra, Meghna and Padma. Areas affected are the Sylhet depression, the low-lying lands in the pabna District, the Dacca Southwest project area and the lowlands in the Faridpur District.

1/ See Chapter III for Summary of Cost Estimates. - 120 -

(b) Overtopping of small streams originating in the hills and mountain slones in India or in the hills alon- international border:

There are many of these rivers: the Surma, Khowai, Kusiyara, and the Dhakai in Sylhet; the Sameswari, the Nitai and Jadukata in Snmensingh; the Tista, Karatoya and Mahananda in the Northwest Region; and the Sangu and Mathamuhuri Rivers in the Southeast Region receiving the main part of their discharge from the hill range along the Bangladesh side of the international border.

.;.ere are e-3en.sive areas withi pondedz raIr-AMeLin LAI WJ h and Jessore Districts, south of the Ganges and west of the U*.' .-' L6.' * , ~ ... ~J.~.L 01~ ...A~ J0. o. U-A4 W 0 UNLV.LOLIVU V.L. VY-ra4 *'vers;; TLh fwlooCA VVodLw are 4S p at sVs L.J 4XJVV v the Kaliganga and Kumar Rivers which have silted up. These riras 'have been A4datribut+arie of the G-es but their C^ offtakes have recently been closed by an embankment. These rivrs¶J0.va-'p neddedgingf1v..44A,'as n v r andovsA im.rzoued4 mnlfvtrTar otesintom~i+.1 0+0.z 4v+s the+.ha es+vares+lfW 0' in order to provide drainage relief for an area of about 600.000 anres whprA lTht.l rAinfall accnmiihntAs dnrin the monsoons. The fringes of the Comilla/Noakhali region suffer from flash floods originating in the hills of Tndia and whila the bulk of the region suffers from local rainfall accumulation both of which can be relieved by a combination of improving channels and provision of tidal sluices. WAPDA has a comprehensive drainage scheme underway for the southern part of the1area (Sadar-South Subdivision Drainage Scheme) and another one4n the Faridpur District for the improvement of about 250 miles of rivers and khals in the northern and central part of the district. lo.oh ThysseJ has advised against early confinement between embankments of the unstable major rivers. Fortunately, however, 'well over half the areas prone to flooding are unaffected by the major rivers. Most of flooding is due to the accumulation of local rainfall and/or streams originating in the Indian hills. In these areas flooding conditions can be relieved by a combination of the following methods:

(1) embankments;

(2) channel enlargement and maintenance;

I,) ) C'laUI-ie rect±ificat Xuio

(L4) .Irovem,ent of out'ULVets3

I5) provisior. of tid_al sluice-14-_m-s;war.d

(6) storage in the hilln in TnAin-

/ ECAFE, bater Resources Series No. 25, by Mr. B.M. Abbas, 1963 j Hydrology of East Pakistan, 1964 and 1965. - 121 -

.. F.otJ be plce po a slzeSto,°t 11O.I.±alluUR6l'aF ~UJLULLUshual .LD I.DUtWCF.La'%;U ILjJwas CL.4..1 A1LG.Aw *MWW ULIU *~WC. -a e1mu-4h1n policy should be adopted using one or more methods that suit the local coz-dit-ions

10.07 Sto r gthe r - 8ua' " storeasu in the Indian hill"s fo,oodVV L-Wief .LU J O oVmg oJn 1U& aZU..L. ~U JUU .L UAL. .JLU.LCLJ& "L.L.LO .LV~LL.U in Bangladesh will require cooperation between the two countries. In this connection it is noted that reservoirs deisigned solely for lood conltrul are generally prohibitive in cost and are built only in exceptional cases when protection is required for major co mercial and industrial centers. India has located several hydro-power sites on the tributaries of the Meghna, Tista and other rivers 11 and the posaibility of providing reservoirs for flood control and hydro-power generation deserves urgent consideration by the Joint Rivers Commission of India/Bangladesh. Joint exploitation oy Bangla- desh/India of the vast hydro-power potential in the Brahmaputra-Meghna water- shed should pernaps be included as part of the program or developing the regional resources. 10.06 In Bangladesh there are many small watersheds and interlacing streams. These small watersheds, their channels and outlets all have their own runoff characteristics and flow patterns. The channels can be used for effective gravity drainage if they are enlarged and outlets are available or provided. Many of the southern estuaries provide excellent outlets because the tidal range in the Bay of Bengal is large (iS to 22 feet) and the levels in most estuaries are unaffected by the high monsoon stages of the major rivers. It is technically feasible to provide drainage outlets into these estuaries by a suitable combination of tidal sluices and main drains. In practical terms this means that drainage can be provided and floods prevented in the districts of Kushtia, Jessore and Khulna situated west of the Gorai River, in Faridpur, Bakarganj and Barisal between the Gorai River and the Padma/Meghna Outlet, in Comilla/Noakhali and in the district of Chittagong. Master plans for drainage should be prepared for each of these areas with emphasis on the use and improvement of existing channels. The main channels can be dredged and the smaller ones enlarged and maintained by manaI excavation under the Rural Works Program. This type of development follows the usual principles for developing deltaic areas :2 (1) Avoidance of the main streams; and (2) development from the sea upwards. 10.07 Opportunities for gravity drainage exist also in the Northwest and Central Regions. These have been examined and are listed in Annex 1 of Technical Report No. 24, wnich includes preliminary cost estimates. 10.08 The improved drainage channels can also be used for water supply in the dry season if arrangements are made for diversion of fresh water into them. Extensive areas can be irrigated by diverting surface water into the southwest region from the Ganges/Brahmaputra confluence and by diversion from the Meghna into the east region. Water diversion into the

1:/ "ECLI:Ai, WWCrater Re%Jce Q-4,_es No. 279, 17966. 2/ ECAFE, Flood Problems in Deltaic Areas, Flood Control Series Flood Control Measures and Technical and Economic Limitation totbhei_ -r Apl44i, 4 tW-r P.esources Ser-es No.23, pages - 1 96 - 122 -

southwest region can be accomplished by dredging a channel from a point near the confluence of the Ganges/Brahmaputra to the Gorai River. The Gorai River itself will need channel improvements and possibly an inlet structure at the offtake. Diversions from the Meghna will need provision of a regulator on the river which can possibly be built near the railway bridge at Bhairab Bazar.

10.09 The suggested approach will lead to a flexible water development program suitable for rural-work-type efforts and capable of rapid expansion. However, it implies a water development program that is significantly different from that followed in the past. The changes are so fundamental that they require a re-orientation of policy on the part of the Bangladesh Government. This is the reason why the size of the Water Program suggested in this report has been kept small. Regionalization of the WAPDA effoirs would make it possible to provide engineering services needed for enhancement of local development efforts and the major works required for servicing large areas. The assistance of regional consultants will be necessary to elaborate this framework of develorment in detail. Coordination and consolidation of the regional efforts will need to be provided by strong planning body at the top.

10.10 4While the primary objective of water control in Bangladesh is to increase crop production, other important objectives include:

(a) conservation and improvement of fisheries;

(b) protection of life and property from flood hazards; and

Thus water projects are much more than a collection of engineering works; rather they provide a basis for achieving the complete, integrated development of a geographic area. This Study proposes stricter procedures for water project selection than have been applied in the past. In particular, economic considerations can now be brought in explicitly through cost-benefit analyses and the development sequencing model described in Technical Report No. 4. A brief discussion of the other factors that should enter into the choice of proJects follows.

10.11 There are at least four technical factors that are pertinent in the o OrnBanglaAdesh.fls The first ionnnoenas Adeqniin#w nf y.+ay. nm -1 nl a, and whether it is practicable and economical to obtain and distribute it. rnce obtSnqed bh meann nf a sordamm.'ui4caSlir 4,.+a.%, theter usst be distributed to the farmers' fields. Under prevailing conditions of very small and fragmented hnoldiJngs, water dAS+ibu4hAem byh onvn+onalgra"ty systems is very difficult to design and implement. Fortunately, where sunrface wa+ear is qavnableh tha +.ar4in is usually ers-oerose by ntura+n channels (Khals) which can, in conjuction with low-lift pumps, be utilized for _irn_itinn-wat+r diq+ ihnvi as .ewll a Por draiage. Where natur.al channels are used for distribution it is important to minimize siltation by 10.12 A second factor concerns embaniments -- the only form of flood protection feasib'le under Bangladesh conditions. At least tbhree questions require answers in the case of embankments: (i) have these been adequately sited? (ii)J has the design (including emban'senb sec.ion auud be"ht) been reviewed by qualified river control experts (important since we are dealing with two of the most powerful rivers in the world in terms of the vol-ume of flow and sediment)? (iii) has a practicable scheme for maintenance of the embankmnents been worked out? A third factor concerns drainage which is essential in order to obtain optimum benefits from monsoon-season crops. Studies of this matter should be adequate regarding the type of drainage proposed -- whether by pumping plants or by tidal sluices. Finally, soils capability must be assessed and ecological effects, especially as regards fisheries, must be investigated.

10.13 With respect to water-control projects in Bangladesh, the most obvious risks are: (a) in the case of projects providing only irrigation (e.g. tubewells) farmers face the risk of local flooding and poor drainage; (b) in the case of projects providing only flood control (e.g. the Brahmaputra Right Bank embankment and the Coastal Embankments) farmers face the risk of lack of water; (c) for projects involving embankments for flood protection, there are risks related to overtopping and erosion of embankments. The latter risks are discussed in Technical Report No. 26. The risk from erosion can only be overcome if an adequate maintenance and flood-fighting organization is established.

10.14 Obvious social factors in the case of Bangladesh are the need for unemployment relief particularly for farmers during the slack winter months (December-May), the need for flood protection to improve the quality of rural and urban life and to avoid traffic and commmuication disruptions. and the need to reduce migration from rural areas to the cities. 10.15 There are also severe constraints with respect to each stage of project development: planning, construction, operation and maintenance, and agricultural implementation. With respect to construction contracting, owing to the relatively small scale and dispersed character of the works involved as well as for other reasons, construction contracts are not attractive to international firms. Local construction companies are f?' in nnmbeAr and lack financial strength as well as adequate construction equipment and technical know-how. Private construction contracting needs to be stimulated. For construction of WAPDA projects, especially surface-water projects, the plan adopted up to now has involved rental of construction eauipment (includixw operators) to local contractors. This system has not worked well. WAPDA recently proposed the setting up of an eauiDment pool to be managed by its Mechanical Equipment Organization (MEO). The scheme would involve: (a) purchase in advance by MEO of eauipment and spare parts from a restricted list of suppliers so as to achieve standardization; (b)-rental of equipment of contractors who would have an option to purchase same at the end of the lob with penalty to contractor in case the option is not exercised; (c) operation and maintenance of eauipment by contractor; (d) MEO would grant its emplovees leaves of absence so that they could be employed by contractors without losing tenure with MEO; (e) availabilitv to the contractor of imported snare parts at pre-agreed prices. 10.16 The proposed medium- and long-term program would bring irrigation to an additional 2.8 million acres by 1983, 4.4 million between 1983 and 1993 and 1.6 million between 1993 and 2003, for a total of 8.8 million acres over and above the 0.8 million now receiving irrigation. All of these areas would be included in the intensive inputs package program described above. 10.17 Low-lift pumps represent the lowest cost and most flexible approach to irrigation and must therefore be developed as an activity of first priority. Tihbewells and double pumning from surface sources would also be developed over substantial areas. Finally, there are major areas which would benefit frnm exanution of minor drainage works in the early years of the program. Medium and major drainage works would only receive emphasis in the second and third dec~ades~. Areas under comnlete water control (irri,ation. drainage and flood protection) would increase from about 10,000 acres to about 1.5 million ac'res by 19813 3.9 million acres in 1993 and about 5.3 million acres by the end of the century.

1O.lod These developments are summarized below. Note that the figures given he r--aflAn+t nprojrc+t sr-on nn^+aA hor n+ ner P-1 1r -. -A-+- in the years shown. Project phasing and lead times are such that a considerable amount of work -- naie,1nia e+.e des ndir . --- occur on some projects during a particular decade, but their incremental production Will be so smalI at the end of +he t---earpeod tUat thep.ject does not appear as complete and in full production until the next decade.

THRi rnTf\h1TATTVJqAT'flR PRNG.RAM ('000 acres)

Irrigation Irrigation Total Drainage Only & Draira,e Irrigated nly Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. Incr. Cum. 1/ Base (1972-73) - 840 - 10 - 850 - 1,900 1073-193OR 19OR I W A1 ,47 1 1.77 ,6 4,5?1 8*Ao 9 71).C 1983-1993 1,137 3,705-2,485 4,4323/ 622 8,137 85 2,825 1993-00Y3( 125 33- pin 1410 5 2 5 3 A79 1)96)0 2960

/ C('a4-, ' Ebankmnts 2/ 3,038 + 1,137 = 4,175 less 470 previously irrigated now drained. T(/ 1 1.77 + 4. ,tJ 0 OA1 previouslyr70 irrigatyed notw daineAd - 125 -

10.19 Detailed cost figures for the water program are presented in Technical Report No. 4 and page16of this volume. 10.20 Major policy implications of the above water invesbnents are: (a) A substantial reorientation of BWDB activities is proposed with more emphasis on irrigation and drainage, and a higher priority to small projects. Specifically, BWIB would play a more important role in designing and implementing tubewells and small-scale drainage proJects. Unless this is done, it would not be possible to undertake the water Drogram of the type outlined in this study, given the limited implementation capacity of ADC. (b) The proposed indicative water program also implies that a malor effort to strengthen the Rural Works Program will be made in the techniques of laying out and constructing minor drainage works. with engineering support from BWDB. (c) There should be an effort ta revitalize the TIP structare. with heavy emphasis on practical training, particularly coonerative manavenant. bookkeenina. use of credit facilities. water management and construction of irrigation distribution

(da) hare shonld be a mainr rnitia+vP tn derelnp local en- struction capacity particularly for well drilling and amhavnkmE'nti n+T.a rntn e+Ann. ln,e wm11 A"1114ine +3hja .nnl1Ad a-WA to include early testing of rig design, drilling methods, P nWr ne arel ,ant,ig, t.I% Tie walte of 9n1+-4.+w rr.. -wr- n - - . . … compaction techniques for embankment construction would also be "vest1gated.

(e A m4" effort w~0A li&be rsdA forvo eu.4w 8vi u o small tabewells (with the capacity of less than 1 cusec). Fo- ___e, - sru' It.. , 464- P. .-.4 I.6r-L' XV%IA. VJCUV .W Mmaii.A.LJ . UJ%.L& 1,IA WI.Uma 4-.J] UU.A00FVUU engines have been found to be practicable elsewhere under GUnLUle.L1ZL"LLS I.ALA" UJ.6ULLa. LLLOAJI8 UXMiLLLLre a reviLw and subsequent revision in Government supporting policies P.WV J1J.643V.

I %JFJeIJU.L.LaJsI~jupp4r U"JL kUI UlO SJ.LI WM A.UUMJ. UUPUpp.rO MLUU UNAUUQ facturers to meet the material and equipment needs of the cons W-uu w.uu ppOrvam. CCIonI ars gwra auug -nurWisporTabtan capacity must be developed for gravel, pump and motor manu- faco,u.reau assemby pslants zUi8i be encouraged--and the possibility of increasing manufacture of PVC pipe (for well- screens and casinfXgs) suUU.Ld be actively exp.lored. 1 'Olf - '26L -

(g) Finally -- and of the utmost importance -- is early action to-wards initiating a series of regional studies to provide the necessary data and resolution of outstanding important technical problems. Technical details and participation in these studies during execution would be the responsibility of the appropriate line agencies, but overall responsibility and coordination should be exercised by the Planning Commission.

Irrigation Low-lift Pumps

10.21 The water program foresees distribution of about 55,000 2-cusec pumps by 1983 (including rehabilitation and replacement of the 20,000 which were in the field at the onset of the civil war in March 1971). This number of pumps would, initially, serve about 2.2 million acres. With improved efficiency of water use it is assumed that the service area would increasa to 50 ac per pump to give a total irrigatedarea of 2.75 million acres by 1993. These targets are conservative with respect to water availability, pump sites, and efficiency of water use. (See Technical Report No. 20). If, and when, efficiency of water use improves, it may be possible to irrigate a larger area with the same number of pumps, or the same area with fewer pumps.

±U.22 The primary adaptabili t of low=lift p-,up irrgation is in areas wz,ere there are considerable quantities of surface water in the dry season,

weLL U.Ldtr-iLutLed across tihe la.-j.ca :.LLe se.s or r.aLu.± de so Fortunately, the parts of the country where this condition is met are the __~__' ~ ~ ~ - - - - -___- --.. A A_A* r__P- __ 4S A- PC-r4. part-s5g1-1'Ce the-t U"_V _VjlU f.tHULlDU V -6- uw uwv LU |LV uW -LL1Lf| f l. LauxL %A|n.L.J |w U_L or problematical, i.e. south of an E-W line between Jessore and Comilla, and easb oI a IN-S lHune UnrouwghU Dacca.

Double Pumping

Tne next leasi; cos"± LOrL 01 L±5ar,L0Li L UUl: WUI{ L ±II5 small diesel units. There are many places where the available water can be distributed furtner by using one standard 2-cusec unit to feed another -- or a 5-cusec unit to feed two standard units, Iy pumping over a temporary plug at the bottom end of a borrow, pit or small natural drarinage channel. The proposed program foresees about 725,000 acres developed by this means during the 'second decade. Again, there are currently strict hydrological and topographical limitations in this form of development and it is anticipated that all opportunities for this form of development will nave been exploited by 1993. 10.24 The magnitude of both the single low-lift pump and the multiple lift programs could be substantially greater in bthe e-vent of successDiL execution of an estuary closure program described in Technical Report No. 20. Not adequately explored to date is the possibility oL mu±I&lple pwriLping using 25-100 hp diesel units mounted on barges as the primary pumping source. Practiced extensively in West Bengal, this might also be a low-cost approach to water development in Bangladesh. Lack of local experience, absence of cost estimates, and insufficient detailed mapping have prevented specific concl-usi_o of this form of water development in the program. - 127 -

10.25 Miltiple numping involving the use of large Dumping stations is a costly approach to irrigation. "Average" cost figures are very close to the It veriagel hAnefits of irrig'ation in Bangladesh. There are. of course, many areas where the benefits are higher than average. The indicated program has 2.3 million acres irriganted through pumnInh nlants involving maior civil works by 1993 -- and a further 1.2 million acres in 1993-2003, for a total of about 3.5 million acres. wd.ere drain.age and floni protection through embankmQnt construction are to follow, the costs of the pumping stations for this form of in-raq QiiK nihcntJilly by the neae ton nrnvide pannnA for future installation of additional (drainage) pumping capacity, and the structural complexity necessary to per.mAit psgof fishing and trnspnrt. honats.

10.26 The investment made to date n.AAvheU- Gns aub.rk prvjuuu hao uen Substantially under-utilized. Although the technical difficulties that impede efficient operation of the project are gradually being solved, a stepped-up effort is needed in the organizational and management fields as in the technical field. It would then be possible on a progressive basis to acnieve a substantially large increase in the area irrigated and thereby the benefits from the project. so accomplish this, preiiminary arrangements had been made by -WAPDA in January 1971 for an interdisciplinary team of experts to be supplied by the US Bureau of Reclamation to study the management of the project. This would include a determination of how the project must be modified so as to improve the operational efficiency oI facilities to prevent waste and losses of water, improve water deliveries to the farmers, improve use of water on the farm, train personnel and establish repayment for water deliveries on an equitable basis. The costs included in the program are for the following: (a)Tks 65 million during the period i973-7O wouid cover about 1,000 low-lift pumps supplied from the existing canal system and 200 tubewells plus some improvements of tne existing canal system to enable dry-season irrigation of about 130,000 acres; (b) irrigation of a further 100,000 together with minor drainage works at an estimated cost ofrks 70 million. This work would be scheduled to take place between 1978 and 1983.

Groundwater Develooment

10.27 The final element of the irrigation programs would be a major effort in groundwater development with about 20,000 wells to be constructed by 1983, another 22.500 between 1983 and 1993, and 7,500 in the final decade of the development period. This would provide irrigation to a total of about 4.0 million acres (not including the apDroximatelv 70,000 acres to which water from tubewells is already available). This is an ambitious program, and its siicces,fr1 completion is absolutely contingent on the creation of additional local well drilling capacity. To minimize the capital investment, a concerted effort. wnill have to be mad-e to develon local manufacturing canacitv for down- well components (screens and casings) and to strengthen the existing local capacity for manufacture of pumns and engines. - 128 -

l£.c'Fract-onalL tube-"Ls (e tube-wells 8z±--er than one cusec capacity) have received increased attention only recently in the government program, and still have many pior,eerir,g fe at-,res. A fractionai tuDeweiL program could be implemented along the same lines as the other tubewell programs referred to in this ch.apter. Folveer, operation and maintenance would raise different problems. While two-cusec tubewells warrant a full-time paid operator, fractional tubewells do not. Therefore, the f-ull operation success oI the fractional tubewell program would depend. on whether individual farmers can be made responsible for tubewell operation on a part-time basis, and whether they have access to supplies (fuel, oil and spare parts) and repair facilities. Making individual farmers responsible for the operaiUon and repair of fractional tubeweiis would nave an important educational effect. Farmers would have to learn the required technology and impose the uLscipLine of such technology on local repair shops. Tnus successful development along these lines would have the positive environmental effect of contributing to the general development of technological know-how in rural areas.

n=l.2s Pip1d annraisal of a second Thakurgaon tubewell prolect involvine 550 3-cusec wells was completed by IDA in 1971. Besides the 550 tubewells of 3-Cusie Gnpan itv. the prolect would include a nilot nrogram of 300 indigenous-type tubewells of about one-half cusec capacity, road improvements to facilitate distribution of agricultural inputs and farm-to-market transportation, and rice-drying and storage facilities to stabilize rice prices in the project area= The total PetAimnatd cost of the prolett is $25 million with a foreign exchange component of $8 million. The project would have included revisinn and iinrpting of a feasihility studv of the Rangpur tubewell prolect which would involve approximately the number of wells as the existing Thakurgaon project. The area of the projnot is estimated at 5nnO00 acres. A feature of this project that would. have to be investigated with some care during final design is whether tubewell pump9 should be de eel=drcvt- or elcntrfied. FinrPlly the agriculture trial program-of the Thakurgaon project would investigate cropping patterns and water distribution methods Suitable for pe-0-eable s "nh as to be found in the Tentulia-Panchagarh area.

10.30 In the North Mymensingh tubewell area, groundwater data is inadequate to enable proceedng-with anl inltens,-ve t-ube-well developm.ent at this tinu,e. However, ADC would extend its program of dispersed tubewells (spacing 1.0 to 1 * ~,mile9) into tne huorth nmensingh area thereby supplementirlg currently available data and enabling decisions on an intensive tubewell development to be made at some future time. As described in the 1970 Action Program report, a 1,000 intensive tubewell project is proposed in the area protected by the existing Brahmaputra Right Bambanlanent project. Tne Yugoslav firm Geotechnika had been asked to prepare a feasibility study for this project and a contract was on the point of being signed in Marcn i97i when the disturbances broke out.

10.31 For both groundwater development and double pumping through Major structures, it will be necessary to implement an active program of applied research and training in ail aspects of water mana-ge-mmOnt. hlue single m-uost important impediment to efficient water use in the country is the present pattern of small and fragmented land holdi-ngs. Concurrent -withthe effort to develop more efficient ways of distributing water in this situation, there should be a major effort through trials and demonstrations to stim-ulate voluntary consolidation of scattered land fragments. - 19l-

Manpower Needs

10.32 Manpower requirements for the irrigation program were estimated per 200 pU7Vs, co-u-mana-Lg-10,00u acres in casa of i. pups, anu-luw 12,00 acres in case of tubewells. The estimated personnel requirement of a typical lowlift p+ n,,rn p 4 4 n+n, area wol be oannec40 assisar.n en anee, one +&nr irrigation officer, five assistant irrigation officers, 15 mechanics and 200 pumn drivers. The nersonnel renuirement for a tvyical 200 tubewell area would be one assistant engineer, three sub-assistant engineers, 15 mechanics and 200 pump drivers. The irrigation development of polder projects is also based on lowlift pumps and the respective personnel requirements have been estimated accordingly.

10.33 In both tYpes of irrigation, repair and maintenance would be centered on thana workshops -- either to be established or to be suitable expanded. The latter would include the addition of two mobile workshops per 200 pumps. There would be a major workshop attached to the office of an executive engineer for about 2,000 pumps. To enable these inspections the assistant engineer and the 4 4 4 th.ana -~Jrigatilon~~r..4,,a., ,..,+ noffIicer ~~~'4na.. .~~.a,.l,.JWoulld h..sahae .ea+aotor .,ah4a~~~~a~,_ehi4c',esl. a.,or h,..,+nboats anderA U ,eaai,er4e~~...echar.ics *wwould ,.. have adequate travelling allowance to visit all pumps regularly.

10.34 The weakest link in the staff chain are likely to be the mechanics. Frequently, they are promoted pump drivers who have not received proper training. Consequently, standards of pump engine maintenance are low. While it is commendable that mechanics be selected from the local community in any one place this is no excuse for inadequate training. In future, mechanics should undergo effective training either under apprenticeship scheme operated by ADC or WAPDA or should have formal training at a Govern- ment Technical Training Center. As a follow-up, there should be a scheme of.JJregua"Lar t-radJe 4test:n,t ih44U reuts. aLffec.ing pro.otions.

Drainage and Flood Controlli

Coastal Embankments

10.35 A sum of $200 million (total equivalent) has been invested up to now in the Coastal Embankment Project. The project has thus far concentrated on flood protection against salt water inundation caused by oceanic tides. Despite benefits obtained from such protection, much larger benefits could be obtained through interior water management and provision oI agicultural inputs. Water management would have severalfacets including: (a) intro- +he `Aler/ %AU4du,ction-3-44 V .JA WA C&d LL U dsribution._L ." 4.4 .LLLLJV A. 154of 1non-saline L.L.4AW ,Lrive .VVA------TI V.WObIer 1.4UL.LI5.4widthin 14ASV YW.L.UOA !/ , 4,0/(b)-_ conservation of natural rainfall through adoption of proper cultural practices; and (c) develonment of deen and shallow wells to the extent Dracticable. Substantial areas could be developed through pumping of fresh water into polders -- about 1.5 million acres or half the total area of the coastal embankments. Closure of some of the tidal estuaries might extend this area considerably but the feasibility of such schemes can be determined only after detailed regional study.

10.36 Because of its size (,000,000 acres of which i,000,000 acres now have flood protection with the embanknents for an additional 500,000 acres p*ax~ UCa...L'y.4.04.1.LJ co.pleted.)il,L0L Can -4L reoteness,I - O5~~-AI- - UAeJ4 CoastalJUI.- U M..Lrbankrwnt U U 4*LU-1 aread.S- callsd.LA~ for

.L/ uuLy the pwjeczusu maing a major cenriobuti-on to Agricultural production in the first ten years of the Program are described here. 2/ By manipulat-in of gat-s o- d-aige ,1,,4 es fresh o w,er %.. be al1,ed to enter most pelders during high tide. There are many variations and combinations of actors involvinrL eharatrIstAee Of the t1dA1 cycle amon"t oa fresh water discharge, degree of salinity and local topography. Each polder requires special study. - 130 -

special breatu-MUIt LI eUffrt. The speed WLIhl -whIIchL pueltl of the area can be realized will depend primarily on the resolution of institutional pr`oblemss. '-Pilot polders" for demUlonstrating the value of -water management and agricultural inputs should be advanced as well as technical studies for their gradual extension to a maJor part of the encire coastal embankment area.

10.37 Phase I of the oDastal Embankment Project consists of 86 polders enclosing an aggregate area of about 2 million acres. As of July 1970, 61 polders were to have bean completed, enclosing about 1 million acres. Of the remaining 25 poiders, some construction has been started on 17. '"Group A' designates the Phase I polders which are either completed or started (78 polders covering 1.) million acres) while "Group B- designates the o remaining polders (covering 0.5 million acres) not yet started. The Group A polders were scheduled for completion by B-WDB in 1970-71 and i97i-72. The present program includes a tentative allocation of Tks 693 million for an area of 225,000 acres to be completed by 1973. Tnese polders have had public acceptance in varying degrees.

10.38 The Group A polders need additional project planning and water management to mitigate the loss of beneficial fresh river overflow in some areas and to increase the water supply and management in all the polders. The Group B polders have been deferred due to unacceptance by the public primarily because they interfere with freshwater inflows during October and because intensive polder planning will need to be completed before construction can properly resume. For these reasons construction expenditures should be minimal in Group B for the next three years with emphasis on project planning.

10.39 Phase II construction would be deferred to permit polder by polder project planning and management studies to be completed. An overall management assistance program, including all facets of implementation from management of water supply, operation of physical works, agricultural extension through advisory services at all levels,has been progranmed for the entire Coastal Embankment project. The management assistance program, together with the project planning studies now proposed, would be directed toward solving the many problems of project implementation including the development of viable overall organization to direct the project. l0.)10 Mcanwhilc, also the determination of t.he optimal embaikmcnt design and system of polders/embankments, in view of a need for improved cyclone protection and technological and economic considerations, requires further investigation. Finally, estuary closures should make it possible to have a shorter overall embankment length and lower inland embankment height for providing the same protection as a system of closed polders without estuary closures. Such developments would at least partlv offset the relativelv high cost that might be expected for many estuary closures. Also, aspects like these need to be considered in outlining coastal embankment developments for the future. - 131 -

M,f.ltip ose Project- as ,JJ ~-sA l w-'- 'rwhchae o 10.1. Two mitultipurpose projects, the physical works for which are now two-thirds or more complete.,are Chandpiu. and the Ga.ges-Kobadak/ftshtia tUit Phase I. These are included in the first development decade of the proposed water program. The status of both of these projects has been described in Chapter VII. Ch-dp--r has crucial importance because of its pilot nature both with respect to the method of irrigation used and agricultural implement tation aspects. The sun cOSts in the QK/KKu'hta Pnase I project are large and the project is starting to give important benefits. Substantial additional benefits could be obtained at relatively low cost.

10.2 in addi tion.L iandpur and U-, insta"lation Of faciUlies and construction would be commenced at Barisal and a first stage of the Comilla- Noakhali/Little Feni Projects. By 1983, 505,000 acres of the Barisal Project would be provided with lowlift pumps and an additional 50,000 acres would be provided with gravity drainage and minor embaniments as well as lowlift pumps. As a first stage of the Comilla-Noakhali/Little Feni Project, 125,000 aures would be provided with facilities for irrigation and gravity drainage alone with medium-height embankments. By the early 1980's, installation of facilities and construction would be commenced on the Belkuchi and Lakhya-Meghna Projects. Also at that time, studies of the Dacca-North, Muhuri and Dacca-Southwest Projects would be updated so that development could be commenced early in the following decade.

10.43 Barisal Project: The Barisal area comprises 1,500,000 acres in the southeast portion of the Southwest Region. It is in a zone of ample fresh water subject to relatively shallow flooding and is thus similar to freshwater portions of the Coastal Embankment area. The soil and water resources of the region indicate that it is one of high potential, where major benefits can be achieved both in the short run and over a longer time period at relatively low cost. ADC recently decided to give the area high priority and now has plans to install up to about 10,000 1/ lowlift pumps during the next few years. By the end of the 1969-70 irrigation season, 1,710 such pumps were installed and ADC's program for 1970-71 proposed fielding of 3,300.

10.44 It thus appears that Stage (a) of the Barisal project as had been described in the Action Program report of July 1970 (which called for 2,000 lowlift pumps) may already have been undertaken. Feasibility studies should start without delay to clarify further staging of the project. These would

'"Water Development and Agriculture Program -- Major Projects: Progress and Prospects", ADC, September 1970, p. 40. 4ncl-de a large n.uer of^4 ior str4ctures (4 tidal sluices) plus primary pumping plants; both types of works would be needed in owrAer to exter.d lov-3lift pwi..g troughout theu project area. W L U~M J.W IV .LJ.LWU kJIIkJ.A4r %.W%.A JW%W IAU A 1Barisal%i~.J. Oa4.J ' VJ %U .L The ultimate stage of the project might involve flood embankments and & _V__ UA. 10 fLr LJ~ V U~MI .IIL.'J'..z a.I .LLLscW01 LLV.% LO400 ALu

1.4'r* JJn.mg- as re"l zs rtL A -4.J4 sho-- beL'I -'d. 44.' Barisal region than elsewhere in Bangladesh. It is not expected that dr.-a'age pmUmping w-ou'd bLe n.eeded& as t0he are.a can bUe d14.l"neld du Le low part of the tidal cycle. In many portions of the region, moreover,

WIFlere %Al @.ni'sactio.. r, LaVOL0 abUl.W, P-LJ0A.-y pULUKp.ng UL6LIaI als.o rL.L Ub rJt.Leeded for irrigation. Natural levees exist along some of the streams in the reg'on; ir.such cases, '--'--Iens cou'd be ab_Lbtd eab ruba'iy .9UUJ.LI UL11 WMWCL04JAJU=ULD UULLU Utt Q1U.±1sLDUUs tLL I.Watit JJLLT.ALt%-JY, and only drainage sluices (supplemented by earth plugs to close off the

ZLLi.l eAiLLsLJ JW.alleUU.

104.6 The Barisal area has special land tenure and infrastructure characteristics which require special attention iA the course Of thae feasibility study. The relatively large landholdings in the area give rise to considerable tenant occupancy. The area has poor transportation and communications by water and overland by foot-paths. As a results, marKetang IS poorly organIzed. One mater TMht must be cleared Up In any feasibility study is how marketing outlets can be improved.

10.47 In April 1971, WAPDA with the assistance of its General Consult- ants prepared detailed Terms of Reference on the basis of uhich proposals were requested from six foreign consulting firms. It was a condition of the Terms of Reference that the foreign firm would have to prepare a proposal jointly with a local firm.

10A48 In view of its very large size, the Barisal project will have to be carefully phased and a study of this aspect is included in the Terms of Reference. Improved economic guidelines for project evaluation, have been included in the Terms of Reference. These required, besides the marketing aspects already mentioned., treatment of agricultural inputs, institutional arrangements, and ecological effects, e.g., with respect to fisheries. - 133 -

10.49 The proposed Southwest Region Water Study would be carried out concurrently with the feasibility studies described in the preceding paragraphs. Going ahead with actual development of the Barisal Project need not, however, await the completion of the water study which may take about five years. The Barisal Project would, moreover, have little effect on the water balance of the critical ,(western) part of the South- west Region which is more directly affected by the low flows of the Ganges River. in tn 411nM.a1,hA14- rA t-+la F PInieetq The Planning Study for the MeghnaA4uhuri. water transfer scheme ( Mincluding Comilla-Noakhali/Little Feni) is qpe0ted to be ready by early 1973. The area -oaered by t-e planning Study would include about 1,220,000 acres of which about 920,000 acres wo 'd be i4r4gated, and also drained t-o some de4greeA The seheme makes use of a relatively sediment-free river -- the Dakatia. The large 4 Cv.i|'w-s.takA,.1~14?4 ar4a^ea, a zore o-r goodl%fh so41R1 *1qAl~modruYat.e AnA ononirrigatio&ng rfloodina0,withwate wonnl-d be developed in phases with initial concentration on irrigation with water obtaIMed from the Daka4-ta Pier MMd the -4n- -n-- hi ,r'w4¶aw r p n *wand secondary lifting by low-lift portable pumps. Later phases would include ~~I ~A...J.r....1 , -4- ,.a- v%.~w- ,1 -taii hi,f e,p,n_4 +i, MI.* - - flood. Cont ol LD Uw.haLL a .-. d -= bg.J -J -- the previously built primary pumping plants for irrigation, through gating .uJ. coul operate a' so. .or&A=4-g^. dui4ngvi~he% wet seasonr, A pre-feasibility study for Stage 1 of Phase 1 of the transfer scheme was .... .J . Y..1 IflPI1 -t .46 cuZplejtAia U -uY A971,J it covers a n,t1 i .. I _ftulb arenv*~Q o,^4' 1,"1e~ hrA n a.res,i .*ga_ broken down as follows: Dakatia Sub-Project I/ (Comilla/Noakhali I) 79,000 acres Little Feni Project Area 33,000 acres Muhuri Project Area (Muhuri I) 41.400 acres

Total .... *...... 153,400 acres

10.51 A barrier across the Dakatia River could interfere with fisheries, especially prawns. This has been examined in a preliminary manner -- a more detailed investigation is needed -- indicating that the barrier would not prevent upstream migration of prawn larvae as they would pass through the pumping plant and would not be damaged by the low-head nuMn impellers and that due to additional Meghna River water in the Dakatia River, it can be expected that prawn production would increase. It is further pFronos- ticated that with the more stable water-level conditions provided by the project, it should be possible to enhance production of fresh-water fisheries.

J The Dakatia Sub-Project is located within the Comilla-Noakhali project area. - 134 -

Minor to Nedium Size Works Under Rural Works Program

10.52 There are substantial areas elsewhere in the country where important changes in crop production patterns can take place after minimal investments in drainage works. The proposed program includes about a million acres in this category, focused primarily on the areas alreadv irrigated by tubewells and lowlift pumps. Costs would be less than Tks 150/acre on the average for a total of Tks 150 million.

10.53 Next in order of prtorito for development are those arsea in whieh madinm to low embankments snPffite to InrItvAnt flnnding and uhere drainage can be effected by gravity (without pumping). These areas are dA'ribAiqd in dARail in Annowr 2 +to Tocbhn4M l Rmin-rt' No. 4i.. Tha nrw iAm presented here anticipates full development of 125 000 acres in this cate- gnry hy 1983, h35,AflO ae-req hai.waen 1983 sandl 199 =ne A fmther I57flQOoO acres before 2003. Estimates in this and the preceding paragraph are based on the use nof cont+ra-+c-tQ nd fore naccoun+ na conventi+nal

4 10.54 TtPsrnl Wo-ks. Goai,40r. npu+ h +l7 . .i-l T,lpa O 4zan4ion needs to continue as an integral part of the water program implementation, 4 h.,, v _4 +h aer4. 4, r,.nn4 ff4444 on. Tnn W. C ar, l L.,torspa n,-n. **11V ~ Sd. w w~* .h& .. JS.. ~&- .l* 4U ~ . L .**S FlTh pawr'&a M would contribute increasingly to drainage and irrigation water supply and 4 4 alsao *to a nn aC anv of 'odc..Lrol ,rks 4 c 4 -laWse waged 4n& WAPDA projects. The reorientation along these lines would start with the 4 - I.al- 4-A4-nA-444cated 44. e n #n. 4-th4a Af1 development is gradual (see para 3.25), works range from small to medium 4t- size, 4H6- -s bea s-atee-- A --- r ir regons they ca.-b c-lete4d A.& L.4. p M"WJ AMJ LP %QMW01UU V %V.L IOL.1V~J~L~UJ..J. U U JS V.LLO% ULW.LV VGbLA UUO UWAJAMhD.LU U% component by component, and they do not normally include major indivisable

?%1M&k1LUA .LFWUJeV.1WO14. U, IO %IO%.r4,VLUAAW.L.JLAIU'& .L 1.UkFJJ.L 11MIL W1.L ULLU J.U.LQ-'J. VI IJ.LX6 drawing upon local initiative, leadership and labor would be well suited LAD qUj..Juir u U.LZL~ "W.LVUUM.L rAZ ~LOL [email protected] VW FLU~J.MjJOtL WVU.JLUL jJr.LIV.LUO ISA overall frame, although the start would be made without them. Paragraphs 10.53-10.55 deeribe the proJects, and provid.e representative figures for five year costs and areas covered.

10.n1 Comilla-Noakhali ProJect. Channel excavation with the dual function of (a) irrigation water supply and (b) drainage would be carried out under the Rural Works program. WAPDA and its consultants would be expected to make an engineering input also in planning technical specifications for the Rural Works.. A reeion-wide interconnected water conveyance system would be established.:V With the completion of Rahmatkhali Khal regulator, now under construction. d drainage outlet would be provided, and the pumping of irrigation water into the khals would be accomplished under the previously mentioned Comilla-Noakhali Droiect of WAPDA (see para 10.48). The project area would be 150,000 acres and cost US$12 million.

1/ The khals are already interconnected during the monsoon season. '1Ag -

10.5% Barisal-Pathuakali Project. The project would be complenentary to the WAPDA proiect referred to (see paras 10.41-10.47). The cost is tentatively estimated at US$25 million for 300,000 acres. 10.57 Gorai West-Kushtia-Jessore Drainage ProJect. The area west of the Gorai river is flooded by local T,ondinz of rain rather than by over- spills from the Ganges river. The channel improvement excavation would improve both drainage and irrigation water suPvWy. The first phase of the project would be about 375,000 ac costing about US$30 million. 10.58 Brahmaputra Right Bank Regional Drainage Project. The project would provide better drainage for selected narts of the area protected by the Brahmaputra Right Bank embankment and deferred maintepance from the embankment itself. The oroiect area consists of 12q.00 ae and costs soma US$10 million. 10.59 Other Minor Water Control Works. In addition, water control works would be carried ont under the Rnral Works Program in salactad parts of the Northwast region and elsewhere in the country. -I st - J-.I -

CIHAPrER Xi KEY SUPPORTING SERVICE PROGRAMS

1/ Seed Supply

ll.ol IR-8 was first planted in 1967 on several thousand acres. As it was a much superior variety, farmers rapidly bought seeds from each other as well as from ADC and the extension services. By 1971, however, the stock was sufficiently dispersed for Government agencies not to be able to sell any more: demand could be met in the same manner as has been the case for traditional varieties over the centuries. IR-20, the improved aman variety, has shown a similar pattern. In 1970 some 170,000 acres were harvested. In 1971 in spite of the much disturbed conditions some 600,000 acres were planted widely scattered over the counbry. The seed for most of it was obtained through farmer to farmer dissemination. In the past, efforts have been made by ADC to sell seeds of traditional varieties that were supposedly of higher purity and better germination percentage. However, they have not been successful in this part of their effort because they could not establish the superiority of their seeds or because indeed the quality was not sufficiently high to persuade farmers to buy. 11.02 Two aspects of seeds supply must be clearly distinguished. One is the provision of an improved variety, conferring benefits by its genetic superiority. The other is to provide a seed that has a higher degree of purity, is more vigorous and has a better germination percentage than home grown seed. At this stage of development the spread of new varieties has Drioritv. At a later stage. the main task would be to renew farmers' seed supply from time to time.

Rice and Wheat Seeds '1.03 The Government has given a high priority to assuring the rapid snread of sunerior varieties and assuring a sunplv of good seeds. To this effect, the Government prepared a project costing Tks 160 rnillion (including the recurrent cost of five vears) with FAO/IBRD assistance and a Bank appraisal mission was in the field at the outbreak of hostilities. At full nroduction;. the nroieet wouald surrnlv about 18;1M tons of sePed grown and processed under strict supervision. Certified seed would be grOwn by ADn and special contract gronwers. ADC woul d also produce stonck seed for elite contract growers. It may take over two decades before fArTnims will replace their seeds at the rate otnmuon in develnpedaointries, i.e., about once every four years.

Jute Seeds

11.0lh The provision of Jute seeds presents a more complex problem. Seeds are a by-product of fibre production a-nd the technology to produce them is different from that of fibre production. Consequently, the

/ See Volume V, Technical Repo-t No. 13. farmer's best efforts rarely go into seed production. Research has shown that tne provision of good seed considerably ennances yields althougn no dramatically superior varieties comparable to those available for rice, exist. Further, if the olitorius and capsuiaris species are separated, a better sample of fibre is produced. A joint FAO/IBRD mittion has proposed a jute seed production project with the total cost of about Tks i5 million and output of about 1,000 tons per year (5th year). The project includes seed production by a company composed of the Bangladesh Jute Association and the jute industry. Seed would be marked by ADC. The ultimate aim of a jute seed production project will be to provide seed for about 25 of the area every year. Initially, efforts will be concentrated to provide adequate seed for the intensive jute cultivation areas but, of course, seed will be available throughout the country.

Pricing

11.05 Whether charging of the full cost would create a psychological barrier for the rapid advancement for new seeds warrants constant review since the success of the whole agriculture program depends on the rapid availability of improved planting material. Therefore this may prove to be a case for some subsidy estimated at Tks 220,000 through the fifth year. The price payable to contract growers must be based on the milling price of paddy which,,for purposes of this study, is assumed to be Tks 21 per maund. Over and above this price quality seed product warrants a premium of at least 25%. Certified seed should be sold to growers for Tks 35 per maund for the first three years, Tks 40 for the next three year period, Tks 45 for the next three years and thereafter for Tks 50.

11.06 In case of jute seeds, there would not appear to be a need for a subsidy. The seed rate is about 5 lbs. per acre, the cost of which is only Tks 7 per acre on the average in the first five years, Tks L.50 in the next five years and Tks 4 thereafter. These prices are not much in excess of what the farmer pays now. Even if they were to be marketed as cereal seeds, the costs per acre would only increase by some Tks 0.30. Thus, there does not appear to be a need for a subsidy.

Fertilizers 1

11.07 Fertilizer is basic to utilizing the genetic potential of high- yielding varieties. Therefore, the provision of adequate fertilizer is an essential adiunot to their introduction. The current fertilizer

1/ See Volume V, Technical Report No. 14 - 138 - distribution network is geared to administrative and geographic concepts and not to specific needs of particular areas. It is principally located along the railway and road network, and along the river ports. Thus, while all major centers have fertilizer in stock, turnover has not been the key factor in determining the extent of the facilities available, resulting in a rather expensive organization, although a reasonably efficient one as far as the farmers are concerned.

Rate of Fertilization

11.08 The per acre fertilizer recommendations are based on available data. Fortunately, the very extensive work on traditional varieties in Bangladesh, and investigation in other countries on high-yielding varieties, gives some indication of the required rates. They suggest that a suitable fertilizer mix is one containing two parts of N to one each of P205 and K20. Using, therefore, urea, T.S.P. and muriate of potash, the mixture will be 100 parts of urea to 50 parts T.S.P. and 36 parts muriate of potash. The general guideline rates derived from the same data are as follows:

Rice

Epected Yield Fertilizer Recommendation of which (maunds) (lb/acre- (lbs/acre) urea T.S.P. m/p

25 225 134 60 31 ho 375 200 100 37 50 485 260 130 95 60 595 318 19 118

11.09 It cannot. however. be emnhasized stronglv enough that the ratio of nutrients, as well as the quantities suggested are approximations and must be made mueh more specific in terms of the Land Canabilitv Classes identified in the four regions by the Soil Survey Project. To fill this need, andi to.nupdate continnuosly basicr infnrmation regarding crops and varieties, a soil fertility investigation project has been developed. Its capital coss+arP nabou+. Tks.Q 5 million nd annainl recurring n-cz nhbou+. Tks 1.23 million. It is expected to yield very valuable information concerning the mot+henefirial fertilizer r and mixes in well-defineti ares but is unlikely substantially to affect the overall tonnage requirements

11.10 A fur+her factor in estimating fertilizer needs is the anticipated regional average yield level. The basic assumption is that yield levels reached hv year 10 will increase about 20$ ner decade; due to nrogressively better farming practices arising from research and extension services. Accordingly- the followinng assumptions have heen develonped! - 139 -

Crop Year 10 Year 20 Year 30 - Yields (m/acre) ------

Rice: boro/t. aus 50 60 72 T. IRRI aman (irrigated) 40 48 57 It "' (non-irrigated) 36 43 52 B. aus 25 30 36

Jute: 20 24 28

Fertilizer Requirements

11.11 The various acreages assumptions of the cropping patterns were projected for each of the Land Development Units for estimating fertilizer requirements. The estimated total requirements are as follows:

Year Amount (m. tons)

Base year 290 10th vear 1.560 20th year 3.920 30th year 7.450

Procurement

11212 Based on eurrent knowledge nf the natural resources of the countrv, the following fertilizer supply program emerges:

(a) Urea. As the country has large reserves of natural gas which has the right com-ponition for urea manufacture with a minimurm of waste, urea production capacity should be so planned as to meet the needs of the nomit'ry at all times= Until it becomes technologically possible to take a gas pipeline across the Brahm.aputra, the urrea plants will have to be confinedt the eastern part of the country, where the presently known gas fields are. UTownever, as soon as it is possible to do so, a plant should be set up west of the Brahmaputra, thereby saving

() Phs .hn tes+. TTher ar no knowTn pho^spha+.t sQourre- snA +.ha-o e4 a not, at present, appear to be any geological evidence that any will be frni^- Thai-forf , imports musQtm ontinni. In sonme for.m.. There is solid experimental evidence to suggest that on the non- calcareous soils, i.e., everywThere exceptin GangetiG aUurv±inm, rock phosphate is nearly as efficient as T.S.P. and, subject to nroof t.hat its. usep i94 ehepenr thann T.S.P., reockI pnheosp-hate mayi account for half the phosphate used in future. Furthermore, a qtu81- pnrenpred by a manor -emmAre-il organi zaion, in 1968, concluded that the manufacture of T.S.P., which is not labor - L40 -

intensive, and uses imported raw materials, is not economical when co-mpared to imports. Therefore, requirements oI T.S.r. exceeding the capacity of the existing Chittagong plant should be i-mported. By year 10, the sources are projected as follows:

Total phosphatic fertilizer consumption 420,000

of which rock phosphate " 210,000 - T.S.P. equivalent home produced T.S.P. i 50,000 imported T.S.P. t 160,000

By the tenth year the economics of home manufacture will be known and this knowledge would guide the future imports and home manufacture policy.

(c) Potash. Muriate of potash will always be imported. Thus, the country is faced with considerable, increasing fertilizer imports. As requirements increase, import control and timing must be increasingly more efficiently managed so as not to exacerbate the storage problem, precipitate shortages at critical times and tie up an unreasonable amount of capital in inventories.

Storage

11.13 At present, about a year's supply is stocked; this would be reduced to six months and eventually to three months for imports and six weeks for home produced urea. By Year 30, howiever, assuming that the product ratio given above is not substantially altered, some 3.5 m tons of phosphates and potash have to be imported. This is only manageable if arrivals are very carefully and regularly scheduled, from which it follows that inventories can come down to two months' average consumption. The system of fertilizer storage is described in Volume V. Storage capacity requirements are estimated to increase from 200,000 tons during the base year to h50,000 tons in the fifth year and to 600,000 tons in the year ten.

Pricing

111.4 So as not to price fertilizers out of the farmers' range subsidy may be required until distribution costs can be brought down significantly. The financial projection made assumes maintenance of the current farmers price for the first ten years. Assumptions regarding the subsidy are that it would be reduced from its present level to 40% of total costs by year 20 and would then remain at that level. During the first ten years the subsidy cost would rise from Tks 158.7 to Tks 800 m per annum. Plant Protection=

11.15 7ne new rice varieties have resistance to uiseases and pests bred into them, but fully resistant varieties are not available. Moreover, with the hign yield potential and heavier expenditure on production inputs with higher yielding varieties, the potential loss to the farmers increases. Pest control has an important role to play in this context.

Granular Pesticides

11.16 During the last few years there has been a major change in tne concept of pest control in paddy rice in developing countries; the effectiveness of granular formulations has been fully established. It has, further, been shown that farmers are very efficient in applying them by hand, thereby avoiding the use of any equipment. Consequently, the projected plant protection program relies on granules as completely as current technical evidence indicates it to be feasible. The use of granules is assumed for all transplanted rice and part of the broadcast rice where enough water can be impounded to render them efficient. Non-granular formulations are anticipated for seedbed treatments, for broadcast aus and in situations when water cannot be impounded and for growing in deeply flooded conditions (mixed aus/ aman and broadcast aman). Jute, as far as is known at present, must also be treated with liquid formulations. Simple hafld sprayers, modeled on the Hudson, ICI and Jensen Garden-Master type, should be manufactured in Bangla- desh. These should cost no more than about US$10 retail; undoubtedly they would, at least initially, have to be subsidized to some extent.

Insect Scouting

11.17 Plant protection efforts must be guided to areas of outbreak before such outbreaks get out of hand. Therefore an insect scouting organization, as part of the plant protection service must be set up. The scouting organization should be decentralized to district level and consist of a qualified technician travelling in a four-wheel drive vehicle and equipped with a two- way radio.

Expected Consumption and Supply

11.18 Unlike fertilizers, quantities of pesticides used are not propor- tionate to yields. Even in the first ten-year period intensive, near-complete protection is planned over the entire area of high-yielding varieties. Aerial coverage, on at least the present scale but with, hopefully, much improved technologies, is envisaged over the remainder of the crops. There- fore, consumption increase after the tenth year will not be of the order expected for fertilizers. The active ingredients are expected to be imported in the foreseeable future, but formulation--dilution and/or attaching the chemical to granules--will be done in Bangladesh. The formulating plants necessary to handle the entire expected task will cost about US$1 million. Their operation and the provision of the dilutants can be assumed to cost about 10% of the value of the finished pesticide.

1/ See Volume V, Technical Report No. 15 - .I -5

Pricing

1.1.19 Pricing policies must be changed. At present both the material and the service of application is completely free. This is not conducive to creating cost consciousness with the supply organization and with the farmer. Granular formulations of the kind and composition envisaged are usually to be applied at the rate of about 10 lbs per acre, no more than twice, for complete protection; often the second application can be saved. The proposed initial price is Tks 1,000 per ton; the 20 lb dose would thus cost Tks 10 per acre, or less than the value of half a maund of milling quality rice. Liquid formulations would be priced on a similar basis, making an allowance for the fact that a sprayer has to be bought, maintained and operated. The projected expenditures would be about Tks 610 million for the first five years.

Aerial Spraying

11.20 Aerial sparying is designed to cope with situations in which the farmer, expected to have access only to granules and to hand sprayers requires outside assistance. These include: (a) spraying deep-water areas, which the farmer cannot,handle from the ground; and, (b) coping with emergency epidemic pest attacks that are beyond the farmers' resources, in terms of time and equipment to handle. The aerial wing should also be available as a contract service to farmer groups, who prefer their services to ground spraying or granular pesticides. The latter is not expected to be significant for several years to come.

11.21 Prior to the civil unrest of 1971 there was in Rangladesh an aerial spray unit consisting of twelve aircraft, most of them over ten years old. The recent heavy use, lack of maintenance and other causes would lead to the conclusion that the rehabilitation of this fleet, especially in view of limitations inherent in aircraft type and the spraving equipment with which they were equipped, is not practicable. Such planes that can be re- commissioned should be used to support the new fleet now proposed. The five-year cost has been estimated at Tks 37 million.

Input Marketing

11.22 There is no dealer system for seeds comparable to that for fertilizers. Pesticides are not marketed at all; they are given free, often along with the loan of a sprayer, but even more often with only the instruction to apply them with a watering can or dab on with palm fronds. Ferti- lizers alone are marketed in an orderly manner. They are retailed through some 20,000 outlets that are village shops. They are sold either loose, in any quantity, or by the bag. These shops are not necessarily independent businesses: often one man controls several of them and they are essentially just so many outlets of his activities.

11.23 The projected growing sales of inputs are expected to lead to the emergence of somewhat bigger enterprises serving the agriculture sector through inputs and output marketing activities. The Government's aim should be further to encourage the emergence of agriculture oriented commercial enterprises village-based businesses or cooperatives as they gradually develop and as they develop competitive enterDrises with competent management. It would be of much benefit if their major source of income was trading with farmers by selling them production inputs and also buying their products so as to establish that their fortunes will be closely connected with those of the farming community. They would be expected to trade through several outlets. By year 10, the product slate throughout and gross income from selling inputs of such a satisfactorily performing enterprise should be:

Tons Commission Gross Income (Tks per ton) (TksF

Fertilizers 200.0 35.0 7,000 Pesticides 6.o 70.0 420 Seeds 2.5 70.0 175

Total 208.5 7,595

This growth would take place through natural selection; most enterprises would never reach much beyond their present level, some would follow the projected pattern, and some would do even better.

1.1.24' ADC would continue to backstop the dealer organization. For greater efficiency and cost saving, ADC should streamline its operation by a degree of reorganization and upgrading of staff. The main organization will, of course, be oriented towards fertilizers that represent, in volume 96% and in value 92% of their turnover. The technical aspects of seeds and pesticides marketing would be handled by product line staff integrated into the organization. Their costs, incremental to that of fertilizer distribution, would be borne by the particular product line. The costs of the distribution organization (ADC) have been estimated as follows for the initial five yearq

Million Tks

Fertilizer 500 Seeds 35 Pesticides 30

Total 565

Draft Power and Mechanization

11.25 A quick and practicable way to increase farm power is to improve the working condition of farm animals by veterinary practices. In particular, -44-

antihelminthic treatment which eliminates internal parasite infection should be provided as a service to farmers, at a cost of Tks 5 per animal per annum. The project to induce farmers to supplement the diet of their animals with a urea/molasses blend would be introduced and should be self- sustaining, as it will cost only a nominal sum for the few pounds of the mix that an animal may be safely fed per day.

11.26 Some degree of mechanization may be necessary for future development owing to a much tighter operation schedule. However, it is essential to avoid displacement of labor through hasty mechanization measures. A review of past efforts fails to give positive indications on almost all the salient factors: whether the unit is to be a four-wheel tractor or a power tiller; what the most desirable ownership pattern will be; how to solve the seemingly insoluble problem of inefficient operation and maintenance. It is therefore proposed to set up a pilot project, costing some US$2.6 million. Such a project, in about seven to ten years, should be able to set both the pattern, and the scale of any future mechanization plans (see Volume V, Technical Report No. 16).

Farm Implements

11.27 For animal draft, only two implements are being used--a plough and a ladder-shaped smoothing implement. T-land tools consist of hoes, small weeding trowels and some skips for winnowing grain. The uresent system appears to be able to cope adequately with all transplanted rice culture under the presently practiced intensities. The problems are most serious with rabi crops; presently used implements are not suitable for working hard land. Land preparation for aus rice and jute is only slightly less handicapped. Farmer reaction is to delay spring operations until rains have softened the soil, resulting in delays in ripening of the fixed-period aus which, in its turn, prevents or at least seriously retards the planting of transplanted aman. Consequently, yields are much lower than they need be; writh the proposed improved varieties, potential loss of production through delays may become even more serious.

11.28 The problem is only partly that of power; as noted, the animal- drawn implements themselves are not suitable either. FAO have studied the problem and found that a locally adapted version of a Japanese plough could be usefully integrated into the farming system. The study team could not finish its investigations. The studv should be comDleted. When a better plough is readily available, it should increase significantly IR.RI aus, jute and rabi crops.

Agricultural Credit

11.29 The role of agricultural credit is crucial to sustain inputs diffusion. It is expected that production credit would be increasingly channelled through the Thana Central Cooperative Associations. Multi-purpose cooperatives would ue gradually psJaf cut. J.L&" A .elIoal AJ;el.er.t Bank should also expand its activities. Taccavi loans would be substituted for outright relief in easa of umrneruuses.

11.30 Credit estimates cover 50%of the oost of fertilizer pesticidas, improved seeds and irrigation cost charged to farmer; 10% of labor cost and 5% of the cost of draft anImals. I-n additi'mlon, J.KZ .LUU be..LLLOn £. UOULI allocated for medium-long term loans, Tks 110 million for convertible non- institational credit to institutional credit. Taklng these unit estimates and the acreage projected for agricultural intensification, the total credit requirement amounts to 'Ts 1 billion for the tenth year of development. This estimate of the total credit requirement compares with the following other estimates. T'e 1967 Committee on iural Credit estimated to ' requirements at Tks 1,290 million for 1966 rising to Tks 1,810 million in 197 0Y They also estimated total farmer indebtedness to T'ics 1,-140 million in 1966, mostly owed to relatives or moneylenders. Historically, the state Bank of Pakistan in 1969 estimated total rural credit requirements for both East and West Pakistan at between Rs 5,000-6,000 million per year, of which less than 10% was provided by institutional credit. These figures include all types of credit including short-term and longer-term, production credit, consumption credits before harvest, credit for the purchase of draft animals, farm machinery and irrigation equipment. Comilla Kotwali Thana Central Cooperative Association in 1968/69 reported a total credit operation of Tks 2.9 million for the 301 agricultural cooperatives (12,000 members)97. At that time there were no improved aus or aman rice varieties and most credit was used for boro cultivation.

11.31 The past repayment record of agricultural credit has been unsatisfactory, in particular for multi-purpose cooperatives which experience default rates up to over 30% in their annual lending. If the credit r'ani;t+en is even to be anything like a commercial operation, this situation must be improved. Consequentlyv the oroiection nrovides for npersonnel bhild-u_p as well as management improvements for reducing the bad debt rate to 10% within the first ten years of onerationn These arej however_ average figures for the whole field of operation and are not expected to show marked improvements until aft+er the fi f9t.h year of n-neY'n+Aj-n h,r uhi oh +Amo qizepnhIp Thrn, Central Cooperative Associations will have been well established. In the cash flow proiections the defaults are treated. as PAnit.1 losses anA aro expected to be made up by appropriate annual subsidy.

Cooperative Credit

11.32 Despite past problems, Government is convinced that the only way to channel credit to millions of small farmers is through cooperative societiqes To improve cooperative tredit, Government plans to expand Integrated Rural Development Program (TRDP); a comparatively minor credit. agenc-yr . nareent, at the expense of Multipurpose Union Cooperatives. At present there is

1/ Report of the Committee on Rural Credit Government of East Pakistan. Agriculture Department-East Pakistan overnment Press, November 1967. 2/ A new Rural Cooperative System for Comilla Thana, Ninth Annual Report 1968/69. Pakistan Academy for Rural Development, Comilla. - 146 -

rivalry between the two types of cooperatives. IRDP attempts to enforce strict repayment and savings disciplines and charges higher interest rates (15% including 8% service charges) compared to the lax discipline of Multi- purpose Societies and their 9% interest rate. As a first step the interest rate for Multipurpose Societies must be raised and repayment discipline must be tightened.

11.33 Much of the overdue credit of Multipurpose Societies is owed by willful defaulters who could afford to pay. Investigation teams should examine every Society and every loan and effect recovery when possible. Societies which are hopelessly insolvent should be liquidated. IRDP should not be asked to take over any loans from the older cooperative system, but before any old loan is written off, every possible effort should be made to obtain repayment. The Central Cooperative Bank (CCB) is the apex bank for both cooperative systems. While multipurpose societies and their central banks have invested in CCB, its relationship to IRDP at the moment is to act as forwarding agent to the State Bank for loan funds assigned to IRDP. Because of the bad repayment record of farmers, primary and secondary cooperative societies, CCB is insolvent and only keeps afloat with the help of Government loans to repay its debts to the State Bank. Part of the problems of the Union Multipurpose System are due to inadequate banking and financial advice from CCB and this would affect IRDP equally in future. CCB would. therefore, need to be strengthened with professional banking staff so that it can guide TCCA and remaining central banks and effect loan repayment from this level. While the Rural Development Board would control primary cooperatives and TCCA administratively, CCB should exercise financial control. Expert staff should lay down standard accounting and auditing systems and should provide manuals on these subjects for cooperatives.

Comilla Type Cooperatives under Integrated Rural Development Program

11.34 Total costs of the Comilla-type cooperative program is estimated at Tks 1,660 million over the 10-year period made up of a capital investment of Tks 272 million and an operating deficit over the 10-year period of Tks 1,386 million. Recurrent operating expenses rise to Tks 140 million in the tenth year and are in detail as follows:

Tks million

District office expenses 2.0 TCCA espenses: 48.o Cooperative society managers' stipend 37.0 Staff transport and travelling expenses 10.0 Farmer and committee member training 11.0 Miscellaneous expenses 11.0 Replacement of buildings and equipment 21.0

Total 14o.0

The only source of revenue worth considering at that time wasthe 8% service fee levied by TCCA on credit to members of primary societies. The projected - 147 -

level O thne credit operation hanuied uy coope-rau±ve 1 LI [oc------io- a----- is Tks 800 million with a 10% repayment default rate. Consequently, the income would be 8% of TIks 720 milH on 'loan recoveredU, approxi ateil-y ±M± 6u million a year. Expenditure would exceed income by Tks 80 million a year, and the totai loss of the cooperative operation incl-uding bad debts from loans and interest charges would be Tks 166 million. The total operating deficit over the ten-year period--TIks 1,386 million--is composed to TIks 839 million loan funds not recovered and Tks 547 million operating expenses of cooperatives, in excess of revenue.

11.35 These results are in sharp contrast to Government forecasts of the performance of IRDP, which expected the average TCCA to meet recurrent costs aiter five years from credit service fees, and presumably to be able to compensate for bad debts. Our analysis of the situation shows that it is unlikely that the coonerative movement could support a supervised credit and farmer training operation for the mass of small farmers without subsidy.

11.36 A high level of loan default occurs in most developing countries. in Bangladesh the estimated default rate of cooperative credit in the past has beenup to over 30% and that is with institutional credit available only to a comparatively small number of wealthy farmers. The elaborate staff pattern to supervise credit devised at Comilla is designed to reduce loan defaults to a minimum. Consequently, the assumption is that the present 30% loan default rate would be reduced to 10% by the tenth-year. Assumption of further reduction beyond this level, at that time would be over optimistic.

11.37 In view of the high cost of Comilla type cooperatives the benefits bear reiterating. They are:

(a) Widespread access of all grades of farmers to training, technology, inputs and credit.

(b) A considerable reduction in the present disastrous loan default rate, which would rule out large scale expansion of rural credit in the long term. Assuming a continuation of a 30% default rate on the proposed credit operation, the deficit would rise to Tks 250 million per year (compared to Tks 84 million) by year ten.

11.38 The difference in total loan default over the ten-year period is less spectacular--Tks 977 million compared to Tks 839 million--because improvement in default rates has been assumed to commence only in the fifth year (when the new type of cooperative is widely established) and would be gradual over the succeeding five years.

Technical Assistance

11.39 Recognizing the formidable difficulties faced by the ambitious cooperative development program under the Fourth Five-Year Plan and in view of the limited success of previous attempts at widespread cooperative - 148 - development, the Government prior to the outbreak of the civil unrest in March 1971 had requested the Swedish Government for a mission under bilateral technical assistance, to conduct detailed investigations of the cooperative movement. The investigation was to cover:

(a) the respective role of the Rural Development Board and the Cooperative Directorate;

(b) the future of the existing 4,100 multipurpose Union Coopera- tives;

(d) the examination of cooperative credit institutions.

11.Lo The mission was to make proposals for training facilities, detailed training syllabuses, and for changes to existing credit institutions. Such investigations would be an essential prerequisite to future large-scale expansion of the cooDerative sector.

11.4i The Future. Despite the massive financial support necessary to the cooperative movement the long-term objective is to achieve financial independence. W;Tith financial independence the movement would cease to be a Government controlled department and would become part of the private sector. WTith increased training, management would improve and the present need for intensive credit supervision would lessen so that the high over- head costs could be reduced considerably. Concentrated effort would be made to expand business turnover to afford better management. Over a period of the next 20-30 years cooperatives--with proper effort--should be able to take over much of the trade in farm inputs and much of the produce marketing. The number of cooperative societies may still increase between year ten and year twenty to cover all agricultural areas but eventually the number of individual societies should stop rising and subsequently decrease due to mergers of the small village societies. This would be in line wvith successful cooperative developments elsewhere. TCCA would be established in every thana. For their wholesale trade, they would establish specialized national federations. With financial independence the federations may take over the functions of the Rural Develonment Board. excent for nolicv formulation and advisory functions. At this time also, the cooperative movement may begin to contribute substantially to the cost of research and extension. Agricultural Development Bank

11.42 ADB should continue to provide medium- and long-term credit for larger farms and for sugar and tea estates. ADB unlike cooperatives, has gained experience in appraising medium- and longer-term credits and could meet such credit requirements of cooperatives as well as of individual members of cooperative societies. ADB would, therefore, continue to be the main credit agency supporting private investment in farm mechanization and privately owned irrigation pumps. 'Tacca-va Loans

11.43 TacAvi lran 2re considered grants hy farmers. Taccavi loan debts were all written-off in 1956 and present poor repayment is partly based on farmers' hopes for another urrite-nff and partly hpnause administration of these - I-t loans is inadequate. Farmers in many instances are not specifically asked to repay and conseauentlv do not volunteer renayment. Rnpaymen.t grants ft+er disasters would be preferable to Taccavi loans.

Agricultural Extension

ll 44 J.A.45 l +ic- all exter.sion sh pl-y - keyr-le in t.he rmloet program. The Extension Directorate of the Ministry of Agriculture would re-a4n respon.sible for most aerecul-ta.. l-a - ory work to meet the requirements of accelerated development, staff terms of service would be improved, +he nu-bers of technical staff wosld be doubled, +here would be 4 i+r.tsi.f4ied staff training with special programs for those Union Agricultural Assistants who-, ., .--- a.. had f.al 4e.anlic tnr ar.d +... wo'd bh adequa+e financial provision for staff travel, and for agricultural demonstrations and ot4her. 4field works. Fwo u relawed,a prog& ms wit4h a total cost, of TksP8 1,A109 million over 10 years are proposed for the extension services: (1) improve-

mo2nt ofP termz offse ofeitn-s-f'"Quka6e 2)terr- Fr&oWgrv (3) intensive inputs package (Concentration Areas) program, (4) additional

L-,.-

11.4T.^w oJectire of .,+ro;irg .^.er..,S ofP ser.ce of thep existi.-g staff would be a considerable improvement in quality to hold present staff

i.n tlh-e serv.ce. nd 'to00 att'-zct goo0dJIV cardidlates-89L C. TLh p.56L-U " wo"LS 'd.-LrU Government staff service terms into line with those of similar staff in __ _..z ..z___wsJ_A *_ semI-aultuo.uoWaUsW auLthorV-±es es . ThLeM--___ Extension DUivectoWVrat__n wuu h_Uave ____ tuA.._. ___z_ rasre salaries of field staff, mainly of Thana and Union level agricultural staff, p.-Ude Sousin.6 .L-L UrioUn Agr.uL%;"LL-1= DUaOL.Lf, rotUo.r VeLL%c.Les .L- boatsLD fLoL Thana staff and adequate travelling funds for Union staff.

ll.h6 To improve staff quality, the Directorate would fill TAO posts by grad-uaUw , UUr.L'r 'wel fL.L.L-st uistnLeLa 'Ca.L 0 WUaLLU '.tLLL U.Ln t aC sIpV%C.Le.L .-CLLLLLUg program for untrained UAA at "In-Service Training Wings" to be constructed at Ag.riculture Extension Training Centers.* At present only about 100wO the Thana Agrioultural Officers (TAO) posts are filled by graduates and half the UAA have o-nly had in-servi.e araiing in the field. In return for improving the terms of service and for the training programs, much higher standards of technical knowledge and work performance would oe demanded. Stalf unable to meet these requirements should be retired. This program would be completed during the initial five years. It has particuiar relevance because the existing staff would have the crucial task of carrying out the "Minimum Package Program", designed to spread the new crop technology throughout the country rapidly.

Staff Requirements

11.47 The basic assumptions for planning the manpower requirements for the proposed extension services are:

a) One graduate TAO can supervise j0 diploma trained UAA--roughly the present ratio. Consequently 1 TAO, 10 UAA, 1 plant protection officer and 8 supporting staff (clerks, drivers and general staff) would be the basic operational unit. - 150 -

UJ T.L area wll. cl can Le super V.Lsed by a stfalff tur.i tuas ub-cen called a "Development Unit". For an inputs program without J.8 J.....LJ..Z _ (tJ.6 ...... 4. n 12- --AJ. ..-1. J _ -. __ J...L .-2 .LLJ.rCLL..LUJL Lcj( leLas.LucOL, 2. LhL" LL .-L-r LUe J O.L- JLuLt ai-LA rice a year) a Development Unit would be 15,000 - 25,000 acres ka-vrage sihe 0V,00V acres).

c) Irrigated ag-ic-uture -needs Morer intenlsive sbaffing thanl rainfed agriculture. A development unit would cover 10,000 -rat-'avsCvu tr acres._ _

1.4- The dLLCU.V loJpJ1=L1r.0L1LkLQJ.L9q V inICUi41d.LLA UiL.LrL.st-aLIe LLLIrRaJsah0J1 the average planned development per thana would be 12,000 acres (one devel- UIILI UALLOJ ar.j iLn 1VRan4pur 40,0vv acres (three duve-LjJloipr t,e -ULLor,,u . IU thanas which require only one unit a new unit would be added to the existing S UCIL. Le U1LA. WUo-LL UV, l capow.LrLsl fLuu the ev.&WIIajr.LV U-LVC.lVP1LeCLI, ofU..Le part of the thana in the concentration area. Existing staff would continue to cater for Ue exVensLonL needs of the greater part of the thana. If, on the other hand, more than one unit is required per thana, existing staff would constit-ute onle of the Units-. Tne table shows that there are 486 development units in concentration areas--an average of one per 15,000 acres. There would be one UbAk per 500 farming families instead of 1 per i,500 as at present. Three hundred and seventy of the 486 development units would be staffed by newly recruited staff. ll.49 In all thanas in concentration areas there would eventually be more than one TAO. In each case, one would be appointed to direct the whole thana extension team. Tne plan includes proposals for the appointment of an extra graduate agricultural officer in 18 sub-divisions in Dinajpur, Rangpur, Bogra, Barisal/Pathuakhali and Mymensingh/Tangail Districts each with more than 15 development units. The 15 District Headquarters would be expanded by a District Development Officer and the following specialists; an Animal Husbandry Officer, two Assistant Plant Protection Officers, a Youth Program Organizer and in 7 districts a female Agricultural Officer. Clerical and other supporting staff would be increased by 9 men. The role of the Dis- trict Development Officer would be to direct the intensive program and to provide the liaison with the other nation building agencies. The following is a breakdown of staff requirements in addition to existing staff:

(a) Graduates

District Development Officers 15 Subdivisional Agricultural Officers 18 Thana Agricultural Officers 370 Plant Protection Officers 400 Animal Husbandry Officers 15 Women Extension Officers 7

Total 825 - 151 -

(b) Diploma Holders Youth Club Organizers 15 UAA 3,700 Thana Women Extension Workers 157

Total 3,872

'L1.50 Availability of UAA would be a constraint and thus an essential determinant to the establishment rate of 370 new development units. UAA staff for each unit would be built up over a four year period as follows: Year 1 2 3 4 No. UAA 3 6 8 10 Based on a forecast of staff available, the following is the projected buildulp nf the 370 new DevelopmAnt Units (nW) dnr4ng the fi4rst tAn vsar development period:

Year 1 2 3 5 6 7? 8 9 10

N -wTTAA availabhls- from Training Program 200 250 250 450 650 950 950 950 950 950

No. of DU started 30 30 40 60 100 80 30 - - -

Running Total of DU 30 60 1OO 160 260 340 370 - - - No. New UAA required 90 180 250 440 620 740 650 450 220 60

Running Total New UAA 90 270 520 960 1580 2320 2970 3420 3640 3700

The outpu-lt of gradate staff fr^m. +)t Air,'u-I+iiwn1 TjT,ir,44t- A f-,-P"- 44 Agricultural College would be adequate to sustain the proposed rate of est- abli;shing dvel'omren+t units.

AAAitioral C4-. P4

11.51 In tWhe ir4tial fiveear develop.1nt period vtahe conceration areas - 152 -

would absorb all available personnel with competence to serve as UAA's. After

tolat, WU=dJ.1- IJIow WLA WI.MMJAa. .ALA~ & adt*I s+

Research

11.52 A Tks 560 million research nrogram covering crop, livestock; fisheries, forestry and economic research is proposed. In the absence of detailed studies, the formulation of a research nlpn and exnendituire estimates can only be tentative. The striking success of rice research and that of the Soil Survey and the valuable results of Soil Fertility Investigation prove that research can make one of the most fundamental contributions to sector develonment.

Aaricultura1 Research Tnstitiite - ART

11.53 The first and most important sten to 'e taken is to improve terms of service of research workers and to provide them with adequate funds, materials and eqinipimnt. for their wnork. The long delayed move of aRI to new premises should take place as soon as possible. ARI has been weakened in the npst hv settingn pinsmi -t.nnrnMous research organn.izations such as BRRI and the Jute Research Institute. Due to the vital importance of the 'ronsn the measures have been fully justified. However, the justification for the establishment of any new independent institutes is seriously in doubt excent nnpoqibl for ART itself. Instead of ore independen+ institutes, ARI should be strengthened and reorganized and become the parent ins+.i ,itutefor tl allisting and pronosed agricultural research outside the present semi-autonomous institutes. If Government procedure is an obstacle to the strengthening and reorganization, API itself could become seri - autonomous.

11.5h The new ARI should be modeled on BRRI and the Institute Head- r,,,Dvl+nawa 7n,,4n P~n.r,,I^fili+jnc canaii1A ,1141+ IT%' qUar L-s wi-v,di+k r r laoatr faclites should beh~ built upC forfe% a sff+' of about 100 scientists. Linked to the institute should be several multi- disciplinary crop research units--notably wheat, sugarcar.e, o eAd &nA pulses, and draft animal feed supply. A detailed study would determine theabest site- f-or eanch un4i+.. Es n research f'.. nee tobe dvlp and equipped and some additional farms may be necessary. The Soil Fertility 4 ,ran so1 'I`ic+j-nff Tnc+4+uu+p _ni -ha anr.ul+uu'l Van vun Tanc+-+..+

OS LI .5 LIL V - *-5 CAl A > I &~L AL. *- lb_ SJ S ) L8 e- %V_tew*V* should be part of the Institute. ARI needs a dynamic director to get it moving, who in turn, would need a top line scientist as technical advisor. ARI would benefit from a long-term association with one or more really first uclass¶b-- - _acnn,,nhorg-nizatior.s. There would be scope for oa,reral overseas research workers in every department of the institute for five to 1 p^ropose the vario Q,usA h., an uationofAR h is;. giv e+n be . h A.,r1a + IJCI* J WcI LIw vC V_. C_C LIAC LIJ LI .L%I.C V. , A-CICI. L LI_4CICA VW..L 'JL **SC - CII.PAIfCIS' proposed for the various sections of ARI is given below. - .3, -

Laboratory Services 11.55 With the spread of new rice varieties in the Aman and Aus seasons a ne-W 'rno1nt off fertilizJser trials is urgent and should be an important assignment for the Soil Fertility and Soil Testing Institute. Existing services __mynr nzaA +.n 'ha ranrnni7.1 d tn imniAment a more soDhisticated Drogram. Trial designs successfully used in wheat fertilizer investigations and described in Technical RPeport No. 14 are sigg'estetd. Present recurrent funds may be adequate, but the program may need motor vehicles and laboratory equipment.

-I CfA The entomologv and plant patholov services need to exnand-- at least double--to provide the plant protection services with adequate dat3 and to intAensifv inveAtigations into long standeing npet and disease problems. In particular, the efficiency of pest control on rice needs evnlIAtino-n Concerning minor trremr for instancej a Betel Nut Palm di.sease killed half the palms in the country and more than halved production over the last ten years nnd no control measures exist to dnte.

I'l 7 The Agriui1ltunl rnepineering TDivtiin of the M4initvv of Arv.i- culture should become part of ARI and should be expanded. The following is list. of urgen+. enineerin wrnholmsn: intensifiea crop prodcio+rn espcially multiple cropping with rice and Rabi cropping will depend on improved tillage imIplements, adjusted to tillage needs anld farm powuer supply; increasedy lro and Aus rice prodUction call for the introduction of small grain driers suit- ab11le for v *jse; i g o rs c ueL4i r ol distribution systems and water use over a wide range of soils and for a range of crop'rns

Crop eec

-I.-e polic ofi settin upspcfi co resea.-chL -it p4 pse in the Fourth Five-Year Plan is endorsed. The development of improved crop varietiesinvolve~ ~ +-+e&o o a nu.m.ber of sc4enrAtific; disciplir.es----n -- two research workers alone cannot achieve marked variety improvements. Eachsh-ld nit for~ ~~s-adviir oe ADPLL.I.As indicated ir. the cropis progr,CLL the following crops besides rice, jute and tea need intensive research: whatoil crop,'o pLus eLsA,..LAL4% feLeLLfeU UicJ.d.gcrp by-prodLuUtJJ.d ofJ.L food crops, horticulture and sugar.

11$5c The sugar cane research station in Ishurdi was established in 15. ardA.dLas is sue 9 local'0L.-yJ bDre(d can.e veaui-eties. VVwJ..le tlhe l.dLU fLV.Lo 'hie station is adequate, staff, equipment and laboratories need expansion and 4-1e station neveds access -to fil4-a ttin r fhr sgr r"l Val .'1A±V~~od.-~0 A ±LJ.W.U UL-.La.Ld. stat.4.ions .1L1 V4/L1UI iUg4.Ll grUW.±lg a areas. The station has an inadequate budget and has difficulty in importing raterials, and equimLent. TLhe officer In charge has prepared a TKS L5 million project for expanding research, which includes five years recurrent expenditure an,d a technical assistan.ce program through linKs Wwith an overseas sugar research organization. A research program based on a 20-30

4- - a.& -& n_P -_ _ ------g - - s SC Ucienisbt staff. WithadL V-ItLdL Uvt-rdtLb techliLcal ass.!isance prugram fur five n_ years is described in Technical Report No. 9. J-.)4

Rn.gl adesh Rice Resea-rch Institute (BRRTI)

11.60 ice research will remanin of pa-amount LpVortance to the economye There is a large list of important problems for rice research to tackle. Thesea incluide the followi-ng:

(-) Batter cold, pest and disqeases and salinity resista-.ce

(b^) Droulght resistence.

(c) Shortening tne life cycle of the crop. This would allow later aus planting to escape early season droughts without depressing aman yields by delaying transplanting. Shorter crop cycles would allow more time for land preparation, thus easing the draft power constraint. The shortening of the growth cycle of transplant aman crops would overcome possible soil moisture constraints at the end of the season in October- November and in the drier, western most part of Bangladesh along the Indian border.

(d) Development of high yielding varieties of deep water rice. A promising start has been made with variety IR-442 elonga- ting with rising water up to five feet. Daylight sensitivity needs to be bred into this variety to allow more flexible sowing dates. In particular, with planting before the seasonal drainage/flood problems develop and with harvesting at the beginning of the dry season, much of the drainage/flood relief problem would be overcome. Improved deepwater varieties would replace broadcast aus/aman mixtures. Preliminary results indicate at least 10 mds per acre yield increases over potential yields of the mixture.

(e) Improved rice quality, so that the rice for high yielding strains can compete with the best quality local varieties.

(f) Impact of partial or full submergence of rice.

Jute Research Institute

11.61 The Jute Research Institute is semi-autonomous but used to be controlled by a Central Government Jute Committee. The Institute should be raised to the same state as BRRI. While housed in good laboratories in Dacca, the Institute has lost most of its land to urban development. A new site must be chosen for the agricultural section, preferably in an important jute growing area. Adequate number of field stations should also be provided. The existing premises should be left to an expanded jute technology research section. The agricultural section of the Institute already employs 30 research workers. Improved varieties have been issued and applicable results obtained in solving agronomy, pest and disease problems. However, the yield increases achieved to date are not comparable to those brought about by new rice varieties and have only a limited attraction to farmers. Unlike most commodities, there is little jute research elsewhere from which Bangladesh could benefit. In view of the economic importance of jute, jute research should be given at least the same resources as rice research. That would entail at least dLoub'J..tL1 IjIJfe 0Ldt . ±1W, Ln U tLeIdWsho4u.LdA estab.L.Ls11 links iWJ- fiibur e (even if not jute) research elsewhere and recruit several overseas scientists vo inAten1tlona ' stUIda din>UJJ1S WX epWe;-dLJ1L AL.1 UL.i . lio .lU Of g-on e .LUA J. L C6LU physiology. Capital expenditure of expanded research would probably rise to Tks 13 million per yea.

Tea Research

11.62 The Tea Research Station (TRS). also semi-autonomous, received financial support from the tea industry. Its program enjoys the confidence of the Tndustrv. but the Institute is handicanned by lack of foreign exchange and inadequate contact with tea research elsewhere.

Livestock Research 11.63 The three livestock research institutes situated in Dacca, Comilla and Mvmensingh are prima=rilv engaged in vancine production rather than in real research. In addition, there is a FAO supported project for the survey, st.idyv nnd control of intArnal and eTtprnal parasaies and some nnimal nutrition and breeding work takes place at the Savar Livestock Station. As with other research activitiAe- on-going livestonk reaprch can hp imnrnvprH considerably by providing adequate equipment and by providing adequate reciurrAnt funds . sneri.nllv fnrAican Acnhnnge.

11.64 The estahlishmAnt of central disease diagnosis lahoratories to support the field services has a high priority. The cost of re-equipping and operating all the required labmiotoril shoul d be etimnated and appropriate follow-up measures taken. The existing good work on parasite problems should be expnanded. Ot.her fields of stuiAy which req ire rget attento are:

(a) the seasonal nature of food supply for all livestock, cattle, goats waridpoultry;

(b)work oupt'a._ee euie of ---- __. bullocks -^.d evaluation of possible constraints to crop production from lack of a.imal -raft power;

(d) improvement of Artificial Insemination (AI) techniques suitaabaaoe for Banglad4esh; .n i

sses-ore-_4oAP hI rol1 of 14-stockA_ 4_ 4be -Parm ecomy O C& - -Q W LA zSva VO~ V~* || 1 -UQV2 " A J. U L WCILORVIZ especially in view of draft power requirements.

ll.65 The minimum expenditure for livestock research would be capital epr.dit4 +n,ar of 'P I43 "A I n 81 a recurrent expr.dit,Au+re of TsoL 4 'I 'ii pend_ _ _ .._a £'.'. -..J m34.4.l.l on I_ _.~ a m '1--. U ~v- '1 L .. . J...J.LJS 11.66 Improved and increased vaccine production has a high priority. However, the transfer of vaccine manufactubring from veterinary services to private enterprise should be pursued energetically. The release of the public sector from this resnonsibility wouild make resources avIailol f^r other livestock sector improvements.

Fisheries Research

11.67 Since fish is the main source of animal protein in Bangladesh and because of vast inland water resources, fish research should be strengthened. The existing Fisheries Research Stations are already enna^ed on a broad range of investigations including most of the eight key requirements identified by a FAO studv (see Technical Rpnort No. 11) as follows!

(a) Resource Inventories;

(b) Survev of fish seed resoulrces and reAquiremAnts:

(d) Induced breeding of Indian and Chinese carps;

(e) Present and past impoundment studies on dams;

(f) Placement of fish seed in brackish water areas;

(g) Industrial and domestic pollution effects;

(h) Effect of flood embankments on fisheries.

11.63 The last of these is particularly important in view of possible pnnoldeor AovPn-m.t ln theha T-ntIr.nn. ait+inn,-he eff'eof nf pes.itieidq should be studied without delay. The research stations have not been properly equipped aand lack recurrent fuds. S+aff has uattractive terms of service and good staff is consequently lost. Existing staff has little contact with fisheries research elsewhere.* A detailed research progra. should be worked out.

Forestry

11.69 The Forestry Research Institute has done particularly good work on wood products developr.-er.t, bvr,,+ praivl litl4 ++1 1 ,iclt+,l reeach A 6-year Tks 3.5 million UNDP Special Fund Project is under way to expand 4 +he TAO+ ; + + qA,-hA A Ilh o -,.fPa'--A Pfmn- mnn¶, ++h n hlao 1h.. + sIJ 1 v IAAU U. . LljO J U fL- LJ v v-- tA W...*- -S. -- when running smoothly may be able to meet forestry research requirements. S.-ce t4.ber rotation are norrr.ally long---pproxi+ntely from.0sipna rn"( hJ.LLA U4.5h-~ .. . UF..*..J aInE~- p.,,Kan SSK CSS.'.-SVUK.K -0 J -_ L forestry economics should have an important role in research to determine best exploitatio.-A of exiJ.sting cor=K.Iercial tirr.Kber st&nAd a.dA to guid ne-w plantings. = 1tf., -

Ag rimiltmlrnl 1TnivPrqi+.v of' M-t..en_inr.=

11.70 In fiutiumr the ricul+.1 University of .rf4ensingh should bc an important center of agricultural research. Faculties cover the complete rano nafof piculturga inclu ivig Agrvicu+vura.l Ecr.oi,e - -a Fisheris. 1f.,e University has a 600-acre irrigated farm and modern laboratories developed with USATID antd Banke assistance. IT.adA4tion, USTA[D=fTr.arced Corgia University provides technical assistance and overseas training. The University of D- ensin.gh is ideal'ly equipped to focas iLus efforts on one glouup of cpL since it combines all the disciplines of a large crop development institute.

Pulses is most in need of implrovem,ent. Tn addition,, the Uni-versity- could carry out a series of smaller research programs and cooperate with other research

i.7L rUost-graiUuate piojtU Ls in41 eUrtoUmlgy aIIU p.LatU paI hoJU.LUgy oUUlU contribute to the solution of pest and disease problems. The Veterinary and Animal Husbandry faculties could become the main livestock research center of Bangladesh. The Economics Department has already contributed valuable arm management ataa and the fi±neries sectlun, as yet in tne equaoianmhnu stage, should be able to have an important role in the overall fisheries research program. Similarly, the agricultural engineering department could make important contributions by developing implements, small driers, storage, irrigation water distribution, and drainage systems.

Economics and Statistics

U .72 Capacity for econo,ic studie' -e dy esists at the Jnivers±ty of mjiensingh, Dacca University and at the Bangladesh Institute of Development Economics. Economic. research has alsO bueer U0nd-Luced by A.R and by the Department of Marketing Intelligence and. Agricultural Statistics of the Central Government irnistxry of Agricultoure and Wo,rks. r%3blihed fL-rU manage= nt data is still scarce and, therefore, the Government has not had adequate economic information to forulUate farm policy. There is therefore a g-eat new. fo.- economic surveys and research and. the Universities and BIDE are already well established for this purpose. They would require adequate financlL support and IDE might benefit from an association with overseas consultants and outside researchers to work side by side with local staff.

11.73 The following are some priority problems for research:

(a) economics of specific crops and crop rotations;

(b) economics of various types of farm activities--e.g., inputs, irrigation, drainage, various combinations of these activities, and the economics of small irrigation pumps and tubewells (smaller than one cusec);

(d) collection of farm management data with a view to. developing water charges and input policies and programs; - '58A.g'PW =-

(e) economics of complete farm enterprise on various size farms in different ecologies;

(f) commodity price,marketing and processing problems;

(g) comparison of returns from fishing and crop production on flooded land;

(h) economics of livestock.

The ARD should have a rigorous research program on business management for cooperatives, and all aspects of economics of cooneratives as a euide for strengthening the cooperatives to make them economically viable to enable their transfer from nublic to private sector.

11 7h The collection and nrocessing of arricultural statistics reonires an overhaul. Overseas consultants should be engaged to cooperate with an institute such as TDE in establishing a new svstpm of assessing flood nnd cyclone damage. This would entail staff training.

Studies

U1.75 To improve agriculture and water sector programming, to firm-up the ¶'iiar.etoral linkages, and to ensure macro- econ.omic favdsa4 cy ^4"','hor studies would be required., focused at three different levels. These are:

(i) Basic data collection, resource inventory and special

4 - 4 (44 )m G^ehasi,a)%S%4 -w a+,n 4i a awn+ka4rP4 n"^ " ^ ale otA he aspects on a country-wide basis, continuing agriculture 4 4 ' s-an^ a, .a.s.rr4nlkrr a.naa aa an . n a sect-oIVy Ia: gVV sc.is J.% iVy-A J oWA ^.W&" optimization model, proceeding from projects/programs to

WLAV 4MGSVDy-j1LVtL4. WJJ. XVV%"UlS 1~ '.D ULAV V1UL .5-IV .1.LILUIV sector resource comititments; and

(iii) Comprehensive studies to adjust the agriculture and. 4 . 4' Va r sena t ragnn . 4 , 4 e,s o 4i44 an4.a,,nvo 1 4 nba effects and macroeconomic impact, to assure that the agrceulture mn. wi.ater -1tar otr4hut4ig n the+. overall growth, modernization and.ultimate industrialization of the ec^no^ .

Vnww eof +-he a+-ne4na wnuld be of, a con.tinu.in-;g ^n+tre,m-d. and. others be repeated from time to time, due to the continuing nature of the development efor4t -.-A r,al +-A AnlA a f.4--+A.-4.-. s+vudie wv 'd.1be"one sho+" We.S.W.1,P. VU a.,,.., V.- I WW%&V-SAM V& %P&5 L LUS AI6 * iJ&L..5j a. J VYW 6;SUU%.IvJ. O wV J,A. MV MaLV GFJAi U operations. In view of the above, organization arrangements for studies would L&.V*Us Ve 4-ou' Pr-.AAWIV.L'J.V a.1.10 -X -wvasuv %... II VWJL.&6LU.J%. *

'I1 074 '1'),.. Pal a,4-, 14-4 a-4. -+,A4-a- k,n1 ,a 'h,i+n h44)'yl 4 nk+a nana 5.L*I'3 Thea1 t fo.P.a.' .. L Or s+udUIP.Ag w£~ +oU48 tY r.o iA.Ou+.V , *i.a. .h.a.ts -- -.. n 5 of the key areas of interent. Terms of reference for some of thcse otudies 4 al aa A.. a -4- n- vhey -4r n to a.. 4.4. an CL.rLaI -UA.6W.LU, fa. oth5M IJAV U hay rj..5A..l - .5V V4 - 159 -

Reionnal S Ladle s l / 71 . 77 uthwest ReJ.0o.n B. far tale 'rgest invues 4.entsto.4 dt v bee

I I 01j LAJULLW0L L JJ LJ .A4J..L U AV S.J0- IL-- IL ~ ~LM made in the Southwest Region. These amount to about US$200 million for the 4-_1 -- 1__s_A&_Kn _ e _ _ :ntA 4-1- rsir V-.44; -- 4- V__:_ tJVC.a u.L =EClJ.lUUI %O proJVLIe MLt plA J ALJ.._L.JAL 4V.L. Ldv %I1-1J WAQU0L1UA.o jJV.U9.I UU LJJ.L AU the hydrologic point of view, the southwest region is the most camplex because of.L ILL.LJ.LoJ..L6eLe (%."J LaL) v .L a0. 'ffJ.i . U.L%A=.. range -- of L % ordlAAr.e ofL -%.. Leet; tidal surges from typhoons may reach elevations 25 feet above sea level; \U1J WAyK VIJ-U . 01-rW LIJ.U .L V0QOUML.LOW LLLQ VVI.S.L A." WJ..LU%Ak44. L'eI ~J 1, UJ 0 09VIV..L miles. Closure of these estuaries would provide benefits through elimination

o. sa' n.e.-waeUW.L_ jJre^#i.L0. U.LVIi Cr&, UL ghLLrJ&lLo.odJA pJ.-eV=L& LO.LVJAI, bLLU v J-' L Ler.v.l major engineering works requiring careful study. The effect on fish ecology wouuiLd also r ee w4 be evaluatWedj (J ±.eVWU Vter wv area Lf-ULroim L GU and Brahmaputra Rivers. The latter is much greater in volume that the former. Whven uhe FarakKda Barrage 1i IndUa is cUmpleted, ULe ILow rom Utle GaLges RLver- may be reduced which would increase saline-water penetration in various parts of the region.-/ See discussion above Of the 0vastal abaniments, Bari3alS and Ganges-Kobadak projects; (d) there is evidence of a large groundwater potential particuLarLy in the western and higner part Of the region but actual availability of groundwater needs quantification. The USGS groundwater study program would assist in this effort; (e) the region is interiaced with natural channels. These vary greatly in width, depth and state of enlargement or decay. Many control structures would be needed to enhance drainage, water distribution, capture of return flows from upstream areas, navigation and fisheries development; (f) an indispensable analytical tool in carrying out tne southwest region water study would be the setting up of a mathematical model. A limited amount of work on such a model has already been done by the Harvard university Center for Population Studies but would have to be greatly expanded and supported by a massive data; and (g) BWAPDA has begun detailed structural design of a major barrage across the Ganges River. Before such work had been started, it would have been appropriate to study the barrage from a functional as well as a structural viewpoint. To determine the functional requirements of such a barrage would require consideration of the above factors followed by an analysis of regional water balance.

11.78 Terms of reference for the reconnaissance phase of the Southwest Region Study were prepared in 1970 by BWAPDA, and were reviewed by an Ad Hoc Flood Consulting Panel appointed by the Bank. BWAPDA then approached the Netherlands Government which tentatively agreed to make a technical assistance grant so that the reconnaissance phase of the study could be carried out by Rijkswaterstaat, a leading agency with experience on large tidal deltas.

TTerms of Reference for regional studies need to be reviewed in light of recent developments and engineering policies. The should take account of the new relationship with neighboring India. / The present average flow during the three low-flow months (March, April and May) is about 66,000 cusecs. The minimum 3-month flow in 35 years of record (l934-68) was 55,000 cusecs in 1953. One year in 7 can be expected to have a flow of about 60,000 cusecs. (From "Ganges Barrage Project", Associated Consulting Engineers, Dacca, 1969). - 160 -

11.79 Southeast Region. Mhch of the entire Sou-uarszuko ^ao-.w z-a by studies nearing conpletion by consultants for the Karnafuli and Muhuri projects, and for projects in the Comilla-Noaina&i area. Te Southeast Region is one of very high population density, but fortnnately the technical problems involved, whether of water supply or flood conUt'l, are leas difficult than for the other three regions. Moreover, costs should be relatively low.

11.80 Northleast Region. Projects in this region are a Dacca North and two relatively smal.l projects on tributaries: Upper Kusiyara and Khowai. The so-called Brahmaputra Left Bank Embankment project is located in the Northeast Region, but since it involves a major embankment would parallel the existing Brahmaputra Right Embankment and since water supply in this area is uncertain, a considerable amount of preliminarv work would be needed before proceeding with a feasibility studyr. Most of the remainder of the Northeast Region is subject to deep flooding from the Meghna. Working out a practicable means of mitigating the effects of such flooding needs a great deal of study. A possible approach is that of submersible embankments as has been suggested for the Meghna Dhonagoda project in the Southeast Region. Alternatively, it could be accepted t.hat the area of deep flooding be set aside for use as a storage reservoir with resulting benefits to flood control as well as low-flow augmentation. Such a scheme, which would be of rather grandiose scale and involving difficult technical problems, could be examined in a preliminary manner as part of the special study "Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex." As in the case of the Southwest Region, a period of reconnaissance phase of a Northeast Regional Study were prepared by BWAPDA in late 1970, and reviewed by a panel of experts appointed by the Bank.

11.81 Northlwest Region. Tn this region, except for the Belkuchi and Pabna project areas, groundwater rather than surface water may well prove to be the appropriate source of water. On the other hand, integration of surface and groundwater supplies could prove advantageous in the long run; a gradual generation of knowledge on this matter would emerge from the proposed special study "Prahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex" described below. The existing Thakurgaon project and its extension as well as the pronosed tubewell project within the area protected by the Brahmaputra Right Embank- ment are-in this region. Steps need to be taken to launch a Northwest regional study. Special Studies

4 4 0- - .Lt- V-IJ. _ iYU__ t A-T I11.82I I .QCRydraUlac JU~U.es 01ofUJ 1S1WI e IJMU= '< A.tra'vt$1.VUXbrs *U1U bLot%JLLAJ.VW DVWADwr^-OR VUILfLAnf agreement, mentioned above provides for a three to four-year study of the nhyrau JIc5 UI 1ta main riverb. mlU rerms 0l rfu renac far -i.lU reomIriaissanc were reviewed by a panel of experts appointed by the Bank in November 1970. Tne Study wll involve a mthemaatical modeel of the river system and possibly also a physical model of portions of the main rivers, although the feasi- biLity of such a model, given the hign volume and heterogenous nature of the sediments transported, is in doubt. 11.83 Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna Complex. The construction of a complex involving a barrage across the Brabmaputra tmver near the international border with provision for diversion of flows to the Meghna Basin and to the Northeast and Southwest regions has been proposed from time to time. Tne purposes envisaged for this complex are: to provide partial relief of flooding along the Brahmaputra by diversion througn the Old Brahmaputra River into the Sylhet depression of the Meghna Basin; to divert irrigation supplies to serve water-deficient areas of the Northwest and Southwest regions; and to generate hydro-electric power which could conserve scarce fuel resources and also provide energy which may be required for pump drainage, particularly in the Northwest region. From the investigations made for this Study, it emerges that the significant practical use of the barrage would be to divert irrigation water supplies to water deficient areas. Flood relief would require opening new drainage outlets into the sea rather than diverting water into another area of Bangladesh. Hydro-electric power supplies have been identified across the border in the Assam hills and also in Nepal and other locations in the Himalayan slopes. They would most likely be able to produce power at a substantially lower-cost than the barrage referred to.

11.84 Development of an adequate safe design for a barrage across the Brahmaputra River would involve complex problems, particularly with respect to hydrologic and geotechnical features. The design would have to incorporate extensive training works to ensure stable conditions so that the river would not change course. A supplementary mnassive groundwater development would have to be studied concurrently. 11.85 From a structural point of view a barrage across the Brahmaputra would be a major undertaking. It would be approximately four miles long and would have to pass a flood flow of about 3 million cusecs. The principal technical problem that would be encountered relates to the instability of the river (see Technical Report No. 25). Qn this account it will probably prove desirable to adopt the lowest height compatible with delivery into the canal headworks and at the same time construct extensive river bank protection works upstream. A further important technical problem will relate to the methods of construction, bearing in mind the length of the barrage and the absence of any intermediate natural islands. The design of the barrage itself, founded on alluvium, should not present problems substantially different to those encountered in the construction of most other barrages in the subcontinent. - 162 -

11.86 Owing to the question of availability of adequate water supplies in dry season to justify the barrage after making an allowance for increased irrigation use in Bangladesh as well as in India, to a need to control saline water instrusion in the delta,1/ and to the magnitude of the investigations involved in the Study of the Brahmaputra Barrage Project, it will be necessary to phase the inrvestigations to define first what function the barrage should perform taking both economic and technical factors into account. A reconnaissance period to do this should precede detailed planning studies and investigations.

Flood Consulting Panel

11.87 Bangladesh requires the support of the best international expertise available to focus water studies along sound lines and to provide answers to important technical questions arising from past and current investment decisions. Such expertise should be assembled in a Consulting Panel to include eminent experts in various technical fields such as hydrology, river training and control, sedimentologr, economics, river basin planning, and agriculture. An Ad Hoc Panel acting as individual consultants to the Bank was assembled in the latter part of 1970 and demonstrated the value of such expertise througsh its review of the Terms of Reference for various regional studies. A proposed IDA Credit for consultant services was to have included funds for a permanent Flood Consulting Panel and for certain supporting services to assist the Panel in reviewing aerial photography and hydrologic-data programs, hydraulic studies of major rivers and miscellaneous tasks.

Data Base

11.88 Much basic data are already available in Bangladesh on hydrology, toDography, soils, agriculture and economics.2/ These data are generally adequate in the short run for the planning of water projects, including those already under way or which mieht start during the next few years. However, for further planning, including the various special studies described above, additional data will be needed. Harvard University has done work on basic data requirements and inputs and is exploring establishment of a basic data bank for storage and retrieval of this information. 11 o89 Surface Water Hvdrolo"r. Much data has been gathered by various groups and agencies and FAO has given valuable assistance with their program i nvol ing the tralning of Bangladesh personnel to make gaugings of streams. However, much remains to be done in reviewing historical records to eliminate uinrel±iahbl data. correct errors. establish nrocedures for recording records and retrieval of records when needed for use in hydrologic studies. There aslon is a need for additional training of Bangladesh nersonnel i-n gauoinq large rivers and more modern equipment will be needed for this work. Adequate hvydroloic measuremPnts are also depend-nt upon re-calibration of measuring instruments at regular intervals. There is at present no operational facility

1/ See Technical Report No. 20 (paras. 6.28 - 6.32, 7.26-7.32 and Appendix B). 2/ The presently available data were obtained through programs of BWAPDA, ADC, and +th-rough feasibl+v s ga¶esof specific projects. - 163 -

in Bangladesh for accomplishing this objective. Funds should be made available to establish this facility and training provided for its use. Costs were estimated in early 1971 at $13.5 milMlion of which $1.2 million foreign. Financing of the latter by UNDP was being considered. Finally, hydrometeorologic studies would be required to ascertain the maximum possible and maximum probable floods to provide a technical basis - apart from social, human and economic considerations - for determining the safety criteria and design flood for any major flood control works.

11.90 Groundwater &ydrolps Groundwater development in Bangladesh has proceeded and is being intensified. As concentrated development proceeds, more comprehensive data will be needed both for project planning and for water balance studies. With progressive growth of hydrogeologic information, massive tubewell developments will ultimately require consideration, possibly as supplements or even as alternatives to major barrages.

11.91 Hydro-geologic studies would include the determinatLon of aquifer characteristics (such as area, depth, material, specific yield and recharge), well spacing and other factors pertinent to intensive groundwater development. Such studies were programmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (financed by USAID) to start in mid-1970 with completion in five years. The USGS studies would provide data for specific projects but, as the projects proceed, the USGS studies would also make use of data generated by the specific projects.

11.92 Aerial and Satellite Photography* It was the opinion of the Ad Hoc Flood Consulting Panel (January 1971) that Bangladesh should carry out a major aerial survey program. The objective would be to serve a wide range of purposes within the general context of land and water development. Apart from the usual use of air survey for topographic mapping the principal applications in Bangladesh are: (a) the final design of such project features as canalization, drainage and flood embanlcment layout; (b) soil surveys and land capability mapping; (c) studies of existing land use patterns; and (d) studies of river regimes and stream bed migration problems.

11.93 The basic and most urgent requirement is to fly new high quality air photography over most if not all of the country at a photo scale of about 1 in 30,000. This should be done in color rather than black and white. The Panel further recommended that infra red photography be carried out at a similar scale of 1 in 30,000 or a little larger over selected waterways and flooded areas of land at times of high flood. This type of photography reveals most clearly the presence of water surfaces and inundations and would be particularly valuable in assessing in detail the influences of flood protection works and of projected drainage measures.

11.94 In addition to the above basic program, the Panel considered it would be worthwhile including a small multi-spectral photographic survey in an attempt to develop a special program suited to the conditions in Bangladesh. This type of photography is designed to provide a much more detailed interpretation of crop types and other features than is possible with ordinary color processes. Multi-spectral photography would be applied to limited test areas selected from regions with differing conditions and natural features. The initial program would be a small one totalling about 1 000 square miles. - 164 -

ii.95 Apart from the direct use of air photography by BWAPDA, the BADC and other agencies for project planning and construction as described above, the air survey program should allow for the setting up of an air photographic interpretation unit in Bangladesh with the necessary training facilities. Such a unit would also be the center for the proposed testing program on the use of multi-spectral analysis. The cost of the aerial photography program over an approximately 3-year period was estimated in early 1971 at $3.0 million of which $2.2 million foreign.

11.96 In May, 1971 the Bank, in agreement with the Government of Bangladesh submitted to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) a proposal for investigations as part of an initial program being formulated by NASA involving the use of an Earth Research Technology Satellite (ERTS). The estimated cost to the Government would be about $162,000. This would be an experimental program which would not supplant the aerial photography program described above. On the other hand, a good possibility exists that through the initial ERTS and future similar programs, the results obtained through aerial photography alone could be substantially increased at relatively low cost.

11 97 Miscellaneous Data Programs. The following data programs are needed and funding should be discussed with UNDP and bilateral donors:

(a) Geotechnics (cost $0.8 million of which $o.6 million foreign): Soils testing and analyses used in design of project works is presently carried out by the materials testing section of the Hydraulic Research Laboratory (BWiAPDA). A desirable program to increase the capacity of the laboratory would include both training of personnel in modern techniques and provision of additional equipment needed in the laboratory and in the field. Training of personnel would be accomplished both in Bangladesh and abroad.

(b) Seismologr (cost $0.2 million of which $0.1 million foreign): Bangladesh is situated in an active tectonic zone. Timited data indicate that a large number of shallow and intermediate depth tremors have been felt within the country's boundaries since seismic data were first collected in the Indian subcontinent around the turn of the century. Historical evidence attests to the tremendous landslide into the Brahmaputra Valley in Assam in 1950 that caused considerable aggradation of the bed of the river and is probably still affecting the behavior of the Jamuna in Bangladesh. Large hydraulic structures must be designed to withstand earthquake forces. and without adeauate pertinent information, over-design for safety can result in substantial excess costs. To provide rational criteria for design, a program is needed to obtain expatriate advice on analyses of data and the procurement of seismographs for strategic location. Presently, the only seismograph location is in Chittagong and it is understood that the data have not been fully analyzed. - l65 -

CHAPTER XII

TRAINING OF REQUIRED AGRICULTURAL PERSONNEL

12.01 A program costing Tks 335 million over the initial 10-year period would be required to provide the necessary personnel and farmer training. The program would supplement existing education facilities. A basic assumption for the proposed plan is that at the beginning of the development program enrollment and staffing at all existing education institutions would have been restored to the 1969/70 level.

Training Requirements

12.02 The training requirements for the 10-year period emerge from the above-outlined strengthening of services as follows:

Staff Who Require Professional or Technical Training

Agricultural graduates 2,100 Agricultural diplomas 7,500 Irrigation Engineers (degrees) 400 Assistant Irrigation Engineers (diplomas) 550 Trained Mechanics 3,500 Senior Cooperative Staff 800 Cooperative Field Staff 6,000

Total 20.850

Staff Who Require Short Traimini Coursas

Puma Onerators h

Total 53,000

Cooperative Society Officials

Managers 80,000 .MAAIe F-amno _- r-,%0v Cooperative Society Committee Members 400,000

Total 560.000

12.03 Courses for staff iwlo require professioinal (degree) training would usn 1uall be~ l.l.-5 vcens or morev. Th Wi mn cxre areusually 2- years a.nd ther technical training may take 12-16 monthis. Pump operators and village aolntaints havre .le e- +.,q i rni nry emiyvzc qnrl n cmi I u.r I -n

Agriculture Staff Degrees 12.04 The following is a breakdown of estimated requirements for agricultural graduates over the first 10-year development period:

Expanded Extension Service 800 Replacement of non-graduate Thana Agriculture Officers 300 Research and Training 500 Wastage 500

Total 2.100

12.05 Agriculture degrees are awarded by the Agricultural University of rk,yLjj",L1O_LIg1i d.UILLV VLd1 jc1SL,_-O11~~i Xlr,.L ZLkLA~ U.L=± LLI)LQ J IU.LvtA LLIA ~LPO.U . X J) %I graduate training is only conducted at the University. The Institute is con- trled3 by 4the ",in4st--o4 wSiuQuehereas thiue 'UsiversiAUy Ls Linanced1_U bJy the Ministry of Agriculture but administered by the Education and Cultural

Affairs ?1±1in isry. I,It split responsibility causes mar.y administra.ti.Ud Ve problUems0 and the University would benefit from unified administration and finance, preferably tIh-ough an automusiiUi academic boar;d. Closer integrLation betiween research, extension and education would greatly improve the quality of education.

12.06 The Tnsti-tnte's 1969t70 Anrollment waq 250 for thAe fon-year degree course with an expected output of 50 BSc Agriculture graduates each year. The TTniversitv Or MvmAnstinofh ha beeRn nlaninedi for a maqar.-tir of 3,500 students, with 590 students graduating each year. A build-up to 100 Ao.i milrtt1 o¶A(+q+Aq A Ve$t7'r nrwAr a f4ltran.Ar rna"iew rmvilt Y%rnte4vf.P the necessary 2,100 graduates during a ten-year period, and with the output nf the+.c' a A>owcultur'l T-snt+u+.+ there wniilA be som Qs1 rls for now unaccounted for contingencies. Given reasonable employment and career pronaspct +.he Mcmstz,y"eieh TTMrIT.a-a+,i* shslel attract good,. _l rc!A4Andiaa_ The importance of offering good employment terms to attract good staff can+be overstated.

12 07 A cont+ract for technical assis+ance and provision Of scholar- ships was held by Georgia University at the time civil disturbances commenced. With local acad^eic st+ff nosibh1y depleted during the disturbances there is now more than ever a need to continue the technical assistance program. - 167 -

Diplomas 12.08 The following is a breakdown of estimated requirement of agricultural A4plinmn ho~lder nwer >e ¢_-t t,-ear~ vdeontnmt per_od-

MUA for E.,,-e-dson Services L-7nf0 Research and Other Services 1,300

n Wa +sg 'Vn 41yi%, P tm0+nn

12.09 The Agricultural Extension Training Institutes, controlled by the Ministry of Agriculture have accommodation for 900 students for the 2-year diploma course, producing 300-350 diploma holders per year. With improved training methods the outturn could be increased to 4100 a year giving a total outturn of about 3,500 diploma holders over a ten-year period, less than half the requirement. At uie same time it would be necessary to give upgrading training to the 2,000 UAA (almost half the existing staff) wno have had no technical training, and refresher training for the balance. The quality of training has not been satisfactory in the past. in future, in view of the more complex farming technology extension services cannot afford untrained or inadequately trained staff.

12.10 The Ministrv of Agriculture has for some time recognized the necessity to expand diploma training considerably and to improve training. As a first step, a UNDP scheme was negotiated to improve the standard of teaching at the institutes. The scheme, which started work in 1970, provides 207 man-months technical assistance and 72 man-months overseas training for local staff. rhe project may have to be expanded. The Ministrv's plans for exapnding diploma training have been examined by a USCO-IBRD mission. The mission proposed projects tentatively estimated to cost US$ 3.5 million to: a. Expand student accommodation from 900 to 1,750, by re- locating and enlarging 2 institutes and by enlarging 2 others at their present sites. b. Construct in-service training wings to accommodate 80 students at each of the 4 enlarged institutes. The projection of staff requirements made in this request call for even greater expansion of institutes, to 2,400 places per year. To meet staff requirements as early as possible during the first ten years of development, the necessary works to expand the institutes must start during the first year of the development period. Assuming completion of the expansion program in five years and an outturn of diploma holders equal to 90% of the intake, the build-up of new diploma staff from the training program is as follows: - 1W -

Number Diploma Running Total Year Holders amined Losses Net Addition New Diploma Holders

1 350 150 200 200 2 400 150 250 450 3 400 150 250 700 4 600 150 450 1,150 5 800 150 650 1,800 6 1,100 150 950 2,750 7 1,100 150 950 3,700 8 1,100 150 950 4I,650 9 1,100 150 950 5,600 10 1,100 150 950 6,550

12.11 The estimated cost of the program, with the capital cost based on UNESCO-IBRD estimates and recurrent costs on a cross section of college training costs in Bangladesh are:

Accumulative Total

Years 1-5 Years 5-10 Year 10 Tks million Capital Cost 45.0 45.0 Recurrent Cost 28.5 42.5 71.0 Total 73.5 42.5 116.0

Level of recurrent expenditure in Year 5 and thereafter: Tks 8.5 million. Irrigation Staff 12.12 The Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUWT) and the two other en Ineerina colleges have a notential annual outnut of 600 engineers. There are already unemployed engineers in Bangladesh and there should be no difficnuTtv in recruit-ino adequate staff for the l10vear irrigation program. BUET has in the past received considerable technical A.l %itafnt-aArnd rnnrqmniiPnt1Iv_ _ __ qtqarinardiC----- arA h; alh_a-O 'he hjn eiayineAr-na colleges may not have achieved the same standards and should therefore he Associatedl wi+h BRTJE to achimeve unifrnm +.tA:vini standards.

12.13 S'eanteen wrrnu..ent polyntPevhzn4e Tn_+.%Aacz nff'er 3-yar engineering diploma courses with an outturn of 1,500 diploma engineers a year. As wi+h detr'ee anoineers, diponma holders alreade have deffi1tvnl fitnpol employment and there should be no problem recruiting adequate staff for i'rrPigatinn seritee *1 Z^* - ;.6 -

12 1tt The raeruittment and training of mechanics is less satisfactorv. At present mechanics are often promoted pump operators with little further tmainin& nAre that a4vTan to nlmn oneration. Eyintina' staff must be improved and only competent staff employed in future. There are several al+.rnativra.q for improving the nqalitv nf nArsnnnel- OnA is to make more use of the 5 Government Technical Training Centers. They offer a wide w-nge, OrP 19-.IR mnf+l)% Atainingc %ntrseA ine-tirng tlnnnrce for t.ninerg; fitters, welders and diesel mechanics. In 1967/68 the enrollment was only 9Q49o nn+. of e-arIatM+nr nf P-nnOf Thp nt+her woild be an anrprnte-skhi-n supervised by BADC--possibly reinforced by staff from manufacturers of p.mpS and engines- To maintain st+.Anrdse BAnG woA havee to inst+tAte an effective trade testing scheme, with trade tests linked to staff promo-

+A em -n?,flnvnc+nr 5Psef N',v+yQ

12.15 Cons+nt intensive training wolA be oeo +eii lrvy eAm" +to improve the performance of the cooperative movement in Bangladesh. Coopera- +Awae sm+nff +y.m4n-;b,eruu tr boe%+.lh for% Okate c+n4'f of +1.e Coopera,+AwM Directorate and for Integrated Rural Development Program requirements. 1..r+w TVnTP g,_,A 11w ,iepv n cjeg cooperati+es aAînA trve4a4A by +'eI-% Directorate and with the Directorate becoming a registration and auditing 4 orgeP_azv4o,,n+4 ,w +he +wa i ' ta4n"4n+of req firij,4rA by +1n st+ff4 ,.w.s,ldAr -. ~ I S. L* …-~. _ ,, .- b - --* 4. W ~ 54 --- -V change requiring thorough experience in accounting and in financial analysis Of coe%na"+I wes. Ev-4.stin+g terai4int 4t+4+ti+=a, +t-he Coôpera+v-e College at Comilla for cooperative officers and eight cooperative training insti- +1-1+.D pf."_ +^ -=…e --.r^ Jv'.* _-O+Mf'r __^n- - _.in Aafq u%1 - .- w Âs- ' +hkwSI - "na^nAW-i v.wS J. I_o_o "_+ was of these training facilities would be required for training IRDP staff. 12.16 IRDP requirements will increase sharply. Senior staff would be

+rA".^A at-UW BADJJJILLW CA&a. 4oe-a-UL&%U; JlIkUWVJV.opraieClee U.L6V%7 %JV.4.VU V BesdeJjVQj.LU.U %LVJpU.LC%%i.LVU 4-t-.I-gVIa4LG.".Lr BARD gives a wide range of courses (106 courses with 2,930 participants .LA& A.L7''JV IV7/ j9.LLAIUPb.LJ.Lj .5VAJ V.L. L.JU.L 4 O .S V 6 IJ V U.5.LMLUAL Li t.LUV%7j.SJjAILUU Li gu~Llu.L.C5 These courses play a vital role in teaching rural development to the wide .rangs 01 agenrLL.ci es AVJ.VVLJ CLL.LaV..de.L-U'U LA.oleJ cUorV-. ALLV L.LVe V.5. LA geLcis.U BARD has enough capacity to train the 750 senior staff for Thana Central 4 CMoopera- Ass s soca.A 4-ito.s, .. t ,tr..- Ath. 4.1--- o.ther J'rt.ar,J. UVIjUJ .V U IL aIJUJ .GLWJ&LO,9 VJ.1 LA&USJ L .L .L_LVJUU. . LJ t;LL W.LLL5.4 1WA .LL UWWAV' .LLIPUJ. SiGh I, training activities. As already pointed out, training courses for TCCA o.L.i.LVI-s4 sOJUULU LI.VU LLVtUy.L .UJ.V%A wLU.U' orL.LOUZI UUUJ.LLUbO mBa iagemUtJliI andL accountancy.

12.17 To date TCCA field inspectorate staff do not receive formal trining. Two tyes of trainiu.g a.ue -wpu-ood for the f-uture, somie basiu training at the eight Cooperative Training Institutes to be followed by at last G I AWUUrVWU W1 tLI-M.UL"1g aGL pruposed aS-1LsicT Trainng Centers. These centers would also provide residential training for village accounta"nts euplvYed by TOGA and more iIntensive taininrg for primary cooperative society managers. - 170 -

ra 4* M4> t _4 __ n_ .IJLD I|. i.. ID LI. >JAI.L IJUi I/UJ VVs

BARD are confined to professional or vocational training--BARD caters for a br dpUUJ.V r-aA ' vL.L-J.tLopI i aUd-L'-'strLabtor.L La LA . 10"arLer. anr.d an.a qua-l'.y broad range of courses. The objectives of the TTDC, originally developed uA n n ... I.....J..- … J.L LI... NL..,.. 92 -' Wy BAnvare simJ 'lari a. AV=ILpL-VU.LVV Fa.ILK of eWoLu,se aLI L4LU .hLCUOna LVVt2J. for farmers and for junior staff of government agencies. TTDC do not have

resid.LLUILb.L 4MV, odaoUUUUOLLL ar.ILL ca.al WLOL-.LV.L-W oJLLL Lar.dL-e0 one-uay JLWO-uLL .O Recently, however, a need has emerged for general training centers which give a broad - ofA…firge on.e- -t t…J.ee... 3-u.nh.1 courses. ally L n.e… have focused on staff training for specific projects--the Chandpur project, ULLe.IAL IMULI~~LL weie"ells project,.UJUJ0LUpLp ardu pr-oposa'ls fLor 'Ldle AlAhca OSuoh-u>-6es-~.ULW~~~UILW ard-- AUL Seedsfti projects--each include training components which require residential faciv ies.L ae proposed development program CGonr entrntiorn areas would have similar but much larger scale training requirements. The cooperative movement in partlcular as Training neeus wic=a hve nout ueen mtD--tAULfL training requirements, and even more important, the educational program for cooperative committee me-bers.

12.19 To meet these training requirements, District ±ra-ining Centers would be constructed in concentration areas. Courses at the Centers would include initial technical training with a focus on local proDlems for all technical staff, regular refresher courses for staff, basic training for field inspectors for cooperatives, cooperative society managers and village accountants, and constant training and seminars for cooperative society committee members and officials. initially, at least half the training capacity of the Centers would be devoted to staff training, but ultimately three-quarters of the training time would be available to the cooperative movement.

12.20 The size of the Centers would be based on about 3 training weeks per cooperative society per year--a total of about 220,uu0 training weeks for 73,000 cooperatives in year 10. Assuming 45 training weeks per year, 5,000 trainee places would be required. The size of Center would vary with the development intensity of the district. In several districts, notably Rangpur, Barisal and Mymensingh very large training Units--with accommodation for more than 500 student places would be required. The optimum size of District Training Centers would have to be determined, and in Districts of most intensive development two or even three Centers may be preferable to a single large one. Most Centers would be constructed in stages. Stage one, which should not require more than one year to complete, should normally be built before intensive development of the area commences. The following table shows the distribution and size of proposed Centers: -171-

Number Number of Training Weeks Trainee Places District Cooperatives Required Required

Dinajpur 6,000 18,000 400 Rangpur 12,ooo 36,000 800 Bogra 3,4OO 10,200 230 Bajshahi 1,600 4,800 110 Pabna 1,700 5,100 120 Kushtia 1,100 3,300 80 Jessore 2,300 6,900 160 Barisal ) Patuakhali) 11,400 34.,200 770 Faridpur 5,300 15,900 360 Dacca 5,700 17,100 380 Mymensingh) Tangail ) 16,000 48,0o0 1,100 Comilla 5,000 15,000 350 Noakhali 1,300 3,900 90 Total 72,800 218,400 4,950 (say 5,000)

12.21 The principal of each Center would be responsible to the et 4-i44C A, -4 -i,4-.-.1 fl.Pc4 a.. tA-i. be 4.- seriorn.. a'1 of LU4..5 WJ. JA16 4£L5& J.%UI%. U U.S. W.L.Ld.U.. WA PW %&W- -- A.LIP U'WL5.64.J U&V .I W development team. The District Agricultural Committee headed by the 4 . TI-...... ,. 4l4--to 'nuld be, the Co-'-4-4--.A- Adec4 Ao the .JjJ .U%&J JJWLQ . WVUTjS.L% Uf %AU. W'J'.JL~ U.L&AL U.LAAr' W.PJi4W WV %Al J OLw &A. &W balance of the different courses conducted at the Center. In the long

er.ia, i° Ut-e coperatA.Lve moUv eau.U UUV Y.LJO aC.LJ.4 ga .. n L..d LA IL L IerLgA i.t Mr,y take over many of the duties at present provided by government services JLLUJ.LLU.. LLJ ULLL .LOS1I.L0. orJ.UAL A. WLU ±L _ LL2L-. i. L0 _O L ... _ _ _ I .L_I.. L_ e II __ g .A_ U 1 _.OO

. CC-LLe ±L1- Sk9%.L V.o° WIe rILLWrO WsU.LLL Uid O.LbiO ofuJjJsuj rLUaLc specialists with a staff to trainee ratio of 1 teacher to 20 students--a IoVIlJ. ,L.L V.A.of .2Vf allLor- CetUers. .1, OL.a.L- WVL"ULL1ve 1M be caLLLLL.Lx selected for their vocation for teaching and would require training, ___A %_ - _sA.__ "Anoo ME _ _ _0 LI- ___ _. Li..-_ >_ Po5oJui.u a L DfliJ* OJ[LL; 1&ueW UJiMpIUC.L0 VI LM bI-JLLUILg at ts U1rser;s would be strongly orientated towards cooperative development, a regular DA LU StdAff IemLer shobuLd ob secUnded 'w eiac cenTer anu DArw shouiLd play a leading role in devising the curriculum for cooperative society courses. Tle following is anteoimate oL the cost of the program.

Year ;-5 Year 5-10 Total for 10 years Tks million Capital 54.0 81.0 135.0 Recurrent 17.0 66.5 83.5

.. L 9 . L4. 2i8.5

TABLE IV-1

BANGLADESH - SECTOR S-UMDY

JIjLAC°EAGE, CsA. UfLiL STrrM'DTT^UJ. i.tl.LU.jfl, CvFMeNnI J JLOnVCIFTLVn4.r. AJ.. V1. L,JL VIA'JnOrVnPSa/ S-0 (million acrcs)

------R e g i o ns ------North West Center Eastern South !cest Total

T. Aman (IR-20) bJ 2.2 1.3 2.0 2.5 7.9 IRRI Boro and Trarns- planted Aus 4.5 3.0 4.1 4.0 15.6 'Wheat / 2.6 1.7 0.7 0.4 5.h Kharif Oroundnuts 1.3 0 II 0.2 0.9 3.1 .Rabi Grouandnuts 3.2 2.0 2.4 2.2 9.9 Rabi Cotton e/ 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.9 2.31 Sugarcane 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.9 3.9

(16.1) (10.5) (10.0) (11.8) (L3.-L)f/ Cultivated Land 6.4 4.1 5.7 6.3 22.5 Geongraphic Area. excluding water 8.0 5.3 10.9 9.3 33.5

a/ Gross acreage. Availability of wzater for irrigation not taken into account. Drainage no+ assnociie-. Does not co &r1en nn.iT vTTrletien fo- bro ' aus such as IR-176 and 272 raight might be adapted to about 6 million acres. bJ Estimattes relate to individual crops. They do not include estimates for

.L.iL} 4. WLhickl ULL --I t Lbe adraptUed ta,oU 1k. r_llionL:.L.L5-LL a f leuLra. j The distinction bet-ieen boro auiid transplantud aus is some-mat, arbitrary (see Glossary). Roughly one-third of the area is estimated to be boro, I.e. transplanted beiore the ena of February.

SL' Assurning w.heat is confinled to areas tJoi- latitude 214 °Jl. e/ Ilore e,ztensive trials required for southerin half of the countr{r. f/ The total land suitability acrea-e reflects the great mun-iber of feasible rotaations ns v!ell as the cons .dcrable scope for land use intensification made possible by irrigation.

TABLE VI-1

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

POPULATION DENSITY AND GROWTH

1951-1961

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Population Density (persons/acre) Population On Total On Net On Gross Population 1961 Land Sown Cropped Growth District Census Area Area A&rea 1951-61 (milli7ons) (%

Chittagong 2.98 1.80 5.65 2.90 18 Comilla 4.39 2.80 4.60 2.30 16 Dacca 5.10 3.00 4.30 3.10 25 Noakhali 2.38 2.30 4.15 2.30 15 Faridpur 3.18 2.05 2.95 1.80 14 Sylhet 3.49 1.15 2.60 1.70 14 Pabna 1.96 1.80 2.55 1.75 23 Barisal (Bakarganj) 4.26 1.85 2.55 1.70 17 Mymensingh 7.02 1.80 2.50 1.70 21 Khulna 2.45 0.95 2.40 1.95 18 Hill Tracts 0.38 0.10 2.35 2.05 34 Bogra 1.57 1.70 2.30 1.70 23 Rangpur 3.80 1.75 2.20 1.70 30 Kushtia 1.17 1.40 2.20 1.50 32 Jessore 2.19 1.35 1.80 1.65 34 Rajshahi 2.81 1.25 1.75 1.45 27 Dinainur 1.71 1.05 1.65 1.40 24

Total 50.84 1.55 2.70 1.85 21

Source: Columns (1) and (5) from Tables XCV and XCIV, respectively, iLn n.E R ashid,East PakL i 0 aiLLL.y Syst0 ati. RegionlL r apy and Its Development Planning Aspect, Ghulam Ali and Sons, Lahore, etc., 1967. TABLE VI-2

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

POPULATION DENSITIES IN CERTAIN DEVELOPED AND LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, 1965

Density Density on Total Cultivated on Total Cultivated PoDulation Area Area Area Land (millions) (millions of hectares) (persons/hectare)

Less Developed Countries

People's Republic of China 730 956.0 145.0 0.7 5.0 india 483 304.0 162.0 1.6 3 . Indonesia 105 149.0 18.0 0.7 5.8 Philippines 32 30.0 11.0 1.1 2.9 Thailand 31 51.0 10.0 0.6 3.1 RDepublic of Chiluna (Tai4war,) 12)r 1.0fI. 34.3 12 .0 Ceylon 11 6.6 2.0 1.7 5.5 rt- _ _ . n c n) rz 1 1 G GLlana 8 24ot.v 5. v v . j 1.u Madagascar 6 59.0 3.0 0.1 2.0 Tanzania 11 94.0 9.0 0.1 1.2 United Arab Republic 30 100.0 3.0 0.3 10.0 Mexico 4i 197.0 11.0 0.2 3.7 Brazil 81 851.0 19.0 0.1 4.3 Colombia 16 114.0 5.0 0.i 3.2 Bangladesh 63 14.3 9.1 4.4 6.9

Developed Countries

Soviet Union 234 2,240.0 230.0 0.1 1.0 United States 195 936.0 185.0 0.2 1.0 Japan 98 37.0 6.0 2.7 16.3 France 49 55.0 21.0 0.9 2.2 West Germany 57 25.0 8.0 2.3 7.1 United Kingdom 54 24.0 7.0 2.2 7.7 TABLE VI-3

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

STRUCTURE OF BANGLADESH ECONOMY (AT 1959/60 FACTOR COST) (Crore takas and percent)

1966/67 1o-967/68 (°L 1968!69 (%,) 1969!70n .

.griculture 1,041 (55) 1,134 (56) 1,180 (56) 1,234 (55) lanufacturing and Mining 160 ( 9) 181 ( 9) 181 ( 9) 200 ( 9)

'onstruction 95 ( 5) 98 ( 5) 134 ( 6) 135 ( 6)

Jtilities 14 (1) 15 (1) 17 (- 1) 19 1) fransport 125 ( 7) 133 ( 7) 122 ( 6) 130 ( 6) rrade 215 (11) 228 (11) 244 (11) 251 (11)

Ownership of Dwellings 109 ( 6) 112 ( 6). 114 ( 5) 117 ( 5)

Public Administration and Defence 31 ( 2) 33 ( 2) 42 ( 2) 50 ( 2)

Services 86 ( 5) 90 ( 4) 92 ( 4) 94 ( 4)

Total GDP 1,876 (100) 2,024 (100) 2,125 (100) 2,231 (100)

Source: GOB, Planning Department, "Economic Survey of E'st Pakistan" annual report BANGLAI)ESH - SECIOR STUDY

PRODUCTION OF SELECTED INDUSTRIES

(estimate) Item Unit 1960/61 1961/6:2 1962/63 1963/64 1964/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/70

Jute Manufactures (000 tons ) 257 268 298 331 289 409 404 513 518; 620

, Cotton (i) Yarn (rtil. lbs.) 48 54 54 64 64 73 74 77 96 108

(ii) Cloth (nilI. yds.) 1 69 67 5,5 48 49 40 55 52 61. 58

. Sugar (000 tons ) 56 68 75 88 77 85 113 110 57 90

. taper and News P-rint (000 tons ) 60 67 64 62 79 76 71 - 78 83 83

*atches (OCO gross) 9,171 9,622 L0,01:3 11,548 10,696 12,181 10,372 1:L,064 13.191 14,520

. C:eaCrt (000 tons ) 86 70 94 65 56 43 75 82 63 72

. Cigarettes ( million ) 1,450 2,760 3,729 4,885 5,537 9,576 13,i34 14,905 17,811 17,900 90 FEertilizer (Urea) (000 tons ) - 17 72 106 72 91 93 112 87

o_rce: (1) Central Statistical Office,.Karachi (2) 1969/70 figures are estimaLtes of the Planning Department TABLE VI-5

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

VALUE OF EXPORTS (Crores of Takas)

Raw Jute Other Total Year Jute Manufacturers Exports Exports

1959-60 72.9 22.7 12.3 107.9

1960-61 84.9 31.1 9.9 125.9

1961-62 85.0 31.9 13.2 130.1

1962-63 79.3 30.6 15.0 124.9

1963-64 75.3 31.4 15.7 122.4

1964-65 84.5 29.3 13.0 1268

1965-66 863 5 151.4

1Q66-67 87.0 56.8 13.7 157.5

1967-68 75.9 60.5 12.0 148.4

1968=69 73.1154.3 65.6 15.6

Tuly-ecem..ber.. e rla 4 A ..6 37.680 .

JuLy-LiDeeer,.b 163.6 38.6 1.6 03.8

TABLE VII -1

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

PER CAPITA INMOJME (GNP at hactor cost of 1959/60)

Ye ar Per Capita Income Growth Rate

(Rs) M

1964/65 293 _ 1965/66 295 0.7 1966/67 .290 -1.7 1967-68 307 5.8 1968/69 306 -0.3

Source: GOWP Planning and Development Department, "Regional Development",

September 1969. TABLE VII.-2

DA 1uIADESHr - SECTOR S7TDY

PR'XiATE SECTOR INVESTMENT (Million Tks')

196566 1966-67 1967-63 1963-69 ( 965- 7 (Vzlue,

.A ^ icu1turte 30 32 33 3h 129 L J Lr.n f CtLvr Z 414 50h 527 551 1997 55 (a?) LIrg sciole 355 tliLs L5ii 1470 1721 1' (b) -. ' scac 59 63 711 8C) 276 nrn 2 1 1 1 5 22 13 2 3 bO 1 _lec.'-,t? an. Ga1s 1 1 2 1 5 c16 83 65 65 319 02zr r.v -;i") of 180S1Oi 171 193 202 715 21 82 co 95 Ck 365 l

Tot;;l 837 895 938 9515 360> 100

Source: GwEP Planning Departmient "Economic Survey of East Palcistan 1969-70" BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUJ_Y

RICE -AREA, IYROUCTION AN!D YIELD

Aus .o Amnan ____ -- ___ Bor-o %of ,Total Total.

7. of Total 7. of Total 7. of Total rice rice pro- Total, rice Total rice Total rice areia duction rice Produc- produc- rice Produc- produc- rice Produc- produc- (all (all Total. Area area Yield tion tion Area area Yield tion tcon Area area Yield tion tion seasons) seasons) yield! (msac) (atds/ac) (mn tn)(i a(isar)(ic)) i ac)(is/) (nt)(nac (nt) (nto

1947-48 I/ 4.50 23.5 8.00 1.43 21.2 13.35 70.2 10.18 4.99 74.0 0.76 4.0 11.44 0.32 4.7 19. 01 6.74 8.63 1948..49 4.75 24.5 7.83 1.41 i8.4 13.86 71.4 11.79 6.00 71.4 0.81 4.2 9.00 0.27 3.5 19.42 7.67 9.61, 1949-50 4.67 2 3. 9 7.31 1.25 16.9 14.01 71.7 11.17 5. 74. 77.8 0.84 4.3 12.25 0.38 5.1 1 9. 53 7. 38 9. 19

3-Year Average 4.64 24.0 23.14 1.36 18.8 13.74 71.1 11.05 5.58 74.4 0.80 4.2 10.88 0.32 4.4 19. 32 7.26 9. 14

1950-51 5.26 26.3 9.27 1.79 24.2 13.95 69.7 10.30 5.27 71.4 0.80 4.0 9.53 0.28 3.8 20.01 7.34 8.92 1951-52 5.4.5 26.8 7.97 1.59 22.6 14.03 69.1 9.93 5.11 72 .7 0.83 4.1 10.91 0.33 4.7 20.30 7.03 8.43 19S2-53 5.50 26.5 8.20 1.66 22.6 14.44 69.5 10.04 5.33 72 .6 0.84 4.0 11.44 0.35 4.8 20.78 7.34 9.59 1953-54 6.32 31.6 9.27 2.15 26.1 14.85 74.2 10.55 5.75 69 .7 0.84 4.2 11.17 0.35 4.2 20.01 8.25 10.03 1954- 55 6.03 28.2 8.83 1.96 25.8 14.45 67.6 9.93 5.26 69.3 0.86 4.0 11.70 0.37 4.9 211.37 7.59 8.64

5-Year Average 5.71 27.9 8.71 1.83 24.3 14.34 70.0 10.15 5.34 71.1 0.83 4.1 10.95 0.34 4.5 20.49 7.51 8.92

1955-56 5.82 29.9 8.41 1.80 28.2 12.99 66.6 8.94 4.26, 66. 8 0.6f9 3.5 13.21 0.33 5.2 19. 49 6.:38 7.96 1956-57 5.99 29.8 9.82 2.16 26.4 13.38 66.6 11.79 5.79, 7C1. 7 0.69 3.4 9.39 0.,24 2.9 20.10 8. L9 9.91 1937-53 5.79 28.6 9.82 2.09 27 .5 13.63 67. 3 10.10 5. 15 67.8 0.82 4.,1 11.98 0,36 4.7 20.24 7.605 9.1-4 1958-59 5.65 28.8 7.53 1.56 22.5 13.15 67.0 10.30 4.97 71.8 0.85 4.3 12.52 0.39 5.6 19. 64 6.92 8.57 1959-60 5.-95 28.1 9.60 2.10 24.8 14.29 67.6. 11.42 5.99- 70. 6 0.92 41.3 11.85 0,40 4.7 21.15 8.48 9.76

5-Year Average 5.84 29.0 9.04 1.94 25.9 13.49 *67.1 10.55 5.23, 691.5 0.79 3.9g 11.79 0.34 4.6 20).12 7 51 9.09

1960-6t 6.30 28.8 10.80 2.50 26.3 14.58 66.6 12.29 6.57' 6P.0 l.0II 4.6 12.12 0..45 4.7 21.89 9.52 10.59R 19-,1-62 5.57 28.0 10.80 2.33 24.6 14.08 67.2 14.09 6.~65 70.2 1.00 4.8 13.11 0.49 5.2 203.96 9.47 10.99 19u2-63 6.19 28.8 9.70 2.20 25.2 14.22- 66.2 11.58 6.05 691.3 1.07 5.0 12.25 0,48 5.5 21.48 8.73 9.89 19o,3-64 6.59 29.6 11.00 2.66 25.4 14.60 65.6 11.60 7.301 69.8 1.07 41.8 12.98 0.51 4.9 22.26 10.46 11.43 19~4-65 6.64 29.1 10.20 2.50 24.2 15.11 66.3 13.10 7.30 701.3 1.05 4i.6 14.80 0.60 5.5 22.80 10. 40 II.09

5-Yesr Average 6.32 28.9 10.50 2.40 25.1 14.52 66.4 12.93 6.77 69. 7 1.04 4.8 13.1 0.50 5.2 21.89 9.72 10.b0

1965-66 7.32 31.7 10.30 2.90 28.2 14.67 63.4 12.60 6.80 65.8 1.1.4 4.9 14.80 0.60 6.0 23.13 10.30 10.83 1966-67 6.96 31.1 10.4 0 2.70 28.3 14.06 62.7 11.50 5.90 6 2. 9 1. 39 6. 2 16.30 0.80 8.8 22.41 9. 4 0 10.21 19r7-68 8.22 33.6 10.10 3.07 27.9 14.68 60.0 12.60 6.81 62.1 1.53 6. 3 19.70 1.11. 10.0 24. 44 10.99 I0 94' 19t8-69 7.66 31.8 g.5O 2.68 24.0 14.40 60.0' 13.00 6.87 61.5 2.02 8. 2 21.70 1.61 14.5 24.07 11.19 11.31 1969-70 2/ 8.46* 33.2 9.52 2.96 25- 14.-80* 58.1. 12.78 6.95. 59.4 2.20* 8 .6 22. 27 1.8-0 15.4 25.46 11.71 11.19

5-Year Average 7.72 32.3 9.96 2.86 26.7 14.52 60.8 12.50 6.67 6 2. 3 1. 66 6. 8 18.95 1.18 10.94 23.90 10.72 10.91

I/ Ilata for 1947-48 to 1963-64 is from Statistical L'igest of East Pakisitan. No. 5: 1968 2/From goz cSre of nst Pakita, 1969-70

* Areas for Aus, Aman and Boro for 1969-70 are all estimates. TABLE VII -h

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

RICE PRODUCTION PER CAPITA

FY Production Population Production TLo ns T-l'onLs. i n-I.e%- r'r '7 I. IL r7 f

1951-52 7.o ~ ~~~~~~I55 345 952-53 446.2 e7.3 351

1953-54 8.2 47.77 384 1954-55 7.6 48.93 348 1955-56 6.4 50.O6 286

1956-57 8.2 51.04 362

1957-58 7.6 52.15 327 1958-59 6.9 53.13 291

1959-60 8.5 54.18 351 1960-61 9.5 55.30 385

1961-62 9.5 57.21 372

1962-63 8.7 59.18 329

1963-64 10.5 61.20 384

1964-65 10.3 63.29 365 1965-66 1o4 65.46 356

1966-67 9.4 67.70 311

1967-68 11.0 70.04 352

Source: Produztion - GOB Agriculture linistry TABLE VIIL-5

A ~f1A I~'~? T lACtTTSIV e %frn r"-r T

'wwnrAT AREA, rnOJ.UUCTION, IU\ 14 ELJ

Year Arca Prodtuction Yield per Acre ('000 acres) rCDj 4c-s) (n.auilcls

191i7-48 85 2' 5.7 1io)8-149 95 19 h.9 194,11-50 96 23 5 3 Year Average 92 21 190o- q1 9h 20 1951-92 23 5.8 1952-53 98 2_ 6;o 1953-54 98 24 6.0 195i.s55 1 03 26 6.1 5 Year Averaae 96 23 1955-56 9 22 7 1°56-57 133 23 -4.2 1957-58 107 22 .5.0 ' 9e859- 992 6 1959-60 138 29 .1 ~ lUl.J JLV~U1;,2 Year .^verase:L.L 1-r 14 i_T4

1961-62 lh5 39 6.5 19062-63 18o l5j44 19603-64 1112 34 5.8 i964-65 132 3i 7. 0 5 Year Average 1T .37 9

o965-66 136 35 17.0 i966- 67 180 58 8.8 1967-68 .192 58 8.2 1966-69 290-:' 92 8.6 1969-70 279? 103./ 9.0 215' 769 _-

~/ Irnclude; 21,000 acrc:b of .:i:-'k varieti.c$,

,/ ESt;IjaaLc'. 3/ Economic Survey of East Pakistan, 1969-70 Source: Agriculture Wing, Ministry of Agriculture and Works, Government of East Pakistan, Islamabad. Except for years 1947-48 to 1963-64 which are from Stat.istical Driest of East Paki.stan, No. 5: 1968. TABLE VII -6

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

PULSES - AREA, PRODUCTION, AND YIELD

Year Area Pro+i ction .-Yield ccr Acre ('~~!05acres) tmun6s)

'L I4 ILi 7~L r-4 19h8-6o 990 269 * 19l99-50 991 272 6.7 3 Year Avcrage 93 91 7

.19.50-51 1,015 258 6," 1951-`2 -1,021 284L 1952-53 1,038 29I 6.9 1S53-5'1- 1,01i4 300 7 0 1954-55_l,ll6v 300 730 5 Ycar Average 1,C47 -959 1955-56 923 251 6.6 1956-57 828 223 6.6 1957-58 780 210 6.6 1958-59 853 207 7-0 1959-60 791 193 ' 5 Year Av-erarc 32 252 I

1960-61 817 223 Se6 1561-62 801 230 7.0 1962-63 627 66 6. b 1963-6h, 558 153 6.7 195-6 767* 22?3*w 7.1 5 Year Average 7TI h L

1965-66 8 ,50 2b0* 6.9

15'7-66 793x- 2h0* 7 4 1968-69 915 275**- 1969-70 2901/ 5 Year 2vge!-2

Source: Official Figures from Food. and. Agricultural Section, Planning fnmmini-on- Goer_n_mant nf P:tkidtpn, Qtm,t fno ,Qh7-h8 tn 1A4L-.Al from Statistical Digest of East Pakistan 1/ From Economic Survey of East Pakistan, 1969-70 * Revised according to Statistical Digest of East Pakistan. Original estimates were: 1964-65: area - 813, production - 238 yield - 7.9; 894, production - 278, yield - 8.3; 1967-68: area - 895, production - 273, yield - 8.2; all from Food and Agriculture Section. Revised according to Economic Surrer of East Pakistan. 1969-70 TABLE VIn.-7

L 91T tt P;. r'- !.2s

S ..... ,......

t-ooooooOOOOO0 ooodoooo

I1i fouoooo'o I~~t

Ir~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

It S ,,- .0,,,,,, ,0 ., ._0 - ." e bg~~~~~~~~~_~ ~.V,

,tJ *|- .,, ,-

t a,,,,,,,,...... t _

* ...... '. TABLE VIL, 8

Br,NGLPDESH - SECTOR STUDY

POTATOES - AREA, PRODUCTION, AND YIELD

Year Area Production Yie2 d .Acre ('000 Acres) ('000 tons)

1955-56 61h 1264 7.1 1956-57 72 189 63.9 1957-58 77 171h 55.0 1958-59 88 223 61.6 1959-660 117 277 57.6 196)0-61 138 327 57.6 1961-62 138 315 5•5.5 1 962-63 11,3 357 60.7

190,6 3 -4A 3-7 319 56, 7

'l9641-6 n 37 3°5 In.

i966-67 17L 591 82.6

1967-686 1388 703 0. 7

1968-69_

32697o 211 851 98.1

Source: Statistical Digest of East Pkstan, No. 5: 1968, except for figures for 1969-70 from Certain Basic Statistics on Agricultural Production. TABLE VIytjx

RANGLAIDESH - SECTOR STUDY

SUGARCANE - AREA. PRODUCTION, AID YIELD

Year Area Production Yield Der acre

I98-z0), 74) 3, 27 1948-1h9 225 3,4l11 1

3 Years Average 222 3,357

1950- 51 226 3,353 15 3-951-52 229 3., ) i2.5 1% 1952-53 245 3,675 15 1953-51 262 3,967 15 1 95 LI-.,')526h 3.696 ih, 5 Year Average 2; 3,62

195%5-6 259 3,s975 15 19q6-q7 3,90 1 1957-53- 253 3, 6 91 15 ',LI.. .~ -1 i,t 1959-6o 281 3 6l1. 13

'0-61 279 3, 954 14 1961-62 490 43418 15 ic,62-63 ~318 4i, 7I9 is 2963_6l4 36 5,363 16 1964.-65 306 6 231 -17.5 5 Year Average 311 _7

1965-66 379 7l,r¢A 19 1966-67 14o6* 7,71&> 19. 1967-68 1412 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~i,71,*81 1968-69 407 7,297 17.9 5 Year 1,vcrxagc 1 7,S 1I

Source: Adapted from Agriculture Wing, Ministry of Agriculutre and. Works, G'overnment of PAkistan. xecAt for 19L7-h8 to 196h-6q which is from Statistical Di2est of East Pakistan. No. 5: 1968, and. for 1969-70. Ehonnmin Sur'av of VAnt Palistan.

* Revised according to Stati8tical Digat of Esat Pakistan. Original figures uere area 1966-67 413, production 1966-67 8,070 and yield. 1,969-66 19-9. BANGLA:DESH - SECTOR STUDY E'STULTED LIZESTOCK POFULATICIN ('000)

Cattle Dut'faloe- Goats ann_Sheep Pout Young M;oe'cmal.oC oung Tc;sr Bulls Bulloek3 Cow;s Stock Total Ad'lt 4diftlt Stock Total Goats Sheep Total Fowls Ducks Totnl

1S'.5 18h4 5,475 5,.239 3,10314 14,391 3!6fi 15 5 2 503 b, M 234h 328, W.A. N. A. N. A.

1560 279 6,675 4,032 5,h18 16,1404 336 53 56 U5 5,660 h77 6,137 16*.179 3,617 20,CO6

Pl.nn, Dopt. 4 4 ,O ,3j SAimatsn 20pt. 356 7,594 3,344 7,353 18,656 325 21 60 406 7,036 747 7,783 lls,941 b,,s0t 19,3)6

'L A cn _s3tirzatcs "730 7,31,9 h,499 5,905 18,085 190 95 97 382 7,346 620 7,966 -15,863 3,482 19,3)6

Source: )B?3-?AO April 1971 Livc-stok tedssion.

0 TABLE-VII . 11.

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY LIVnST~OGK O~UTPIrr (Tks Thousand)

19614/65 1965/66 1966/67 1967/68 1968/69 1969/?0 1969/7C y1lk and 1fil1k Prcwuets

Fluid XUlk 230,872 226,305 221,O5 217,185 213,277 203,012 Ghee 125,640 123,120 120,6C3 118, U1O 115,920 113,7SD Butter 4,200 4,200 h,200 3,920 3,92D 3,523 Clhana 49,200 48,2:0 17,250 L6,1440 45,133 U14,641 C'neeae 8,323 8, 0 A, Ov 7,68 7,63 7,3 Curd 2w4,660 24,180 23,640 23,220 20,340 22,320 Total U12,892 434,015 425,525 417,185 406,617 L400,012

Keatw

Cattle 156,780 158,880 161,^1 0 163,260 165,51:0 167,9LO Bmffalo 2,52b 2,520 2,520 2,520 2,1L00 2, L00 ~~~~~~~~-IC 9L-,. e~£9t,I r. Gioat > 7 .,),.5L., Sheep 2,4:00 2,520 2,6-10 2,8so 3,000 3,120 *FOW b14.S90 145,500 46,1:3.0 47,320 48,230 19,113

Total 258,370 262,580 266,970 271,5140 275,930 2v0o,650o .:

Edible offal, 5,959 6,066 6,174 6,293 6,UO 6.5: Kead and trotters 6,831 6,953 7,079 7,210 7,3L:0 .7;177 Co-wt-il hair 1,632 1,655h 1,677 1,699 1,723 1,711 13 1 11. 1, le I .0 L" Ip~.a. .w 1 Bones 2,529 2,561 2,592 2,626 2,651. 2,690 Aniral gut 218 222 226 233 233 217 AnL.a1 fat 3, :10' 3,:65 3,533 3,59. 3,6h13 3,670 Shins (g. & s.) 26,531 27,120 27,728 27,355 28,996 29,637 )Rlde3 (c. & b.) 2L,5 2b-,9814 25,311 25,655 25,956 25,7ia

Total 71,808 73,059 7h,342 7h4,677 77.001 77,771

Eggs (hens and duceis) 4h,9914 4,61T U. 63L, 1!h 1j276h - 1:1:, ?5

TO7AL C"'.7'T P818,0' 8V.14,1V8 51I,7: 807,85O3 33,821 832,5;9

Source: Estimates of Livest.ock and Poult.ry Population and their products and the suggested Benchmarks for the Fourth Plan for E.D. Planning DeDt. G.E.Pc 1968. IBRD/FAO April 1971 Livestock Mission. TABLE VII -12

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY 1 1 %Y~ rmTl~?C1107 1.?A tfT.M ~LT Cl t)1AflTTt'Tr'KTA / (Thousand lIetric Tons)

Year (July-June) Ilarine Fresh Total

1B960-61 142 646 688 1961-62 142 666 708 1962-63 42 695 737 1963-614 142 708 750 1964-65 42 717 757

1965-66 42 723 765 1966-67 1i2 716 788

--I A UIA7-

* Prov7isional

1/ Inclusive of dry) fish

Source: Directrate of Fisher.ies, Go7ernricrt of BangladeshB BAULADEiSH- ECTOR STUDY

FOOD GRAIN AVAILABLE FOR CONSUMPTION PFIOR 7O 1970 (000oLG. TONS)

YEARS FROM DO1SESTIC FROM SHIPY1ENTS FROM CHANGE NET AVAIL- PO?ULATICN PER CAPITA 1/ 2/ WEST PAKISTAN IN GOVT. 11/ (million person,s) AVAIThBILITT PRODUCTIO f IY,PORTS 3/ ABILITf (oz./person/day) STOCKS

1961/62 8,l;90 h30 9'0 200 9,210C 56.7 15.-5 196 !i/ 6 5 9,290 310 50 a70 10,120 61.31 16.2 1965/66 9,510 580 290 30 10,4lo 6411 15.6 1966/67 8,720 930 270 - 40 9,88C1 oi6..7 1L. 5

1967/68 9,290 900 170 -310 10,050 68. 6 lL. 4 1968/69 9,630 800 lj5O - 20 10,86o 70.7 15.1 1969/70 10,570 1,030- 510 0 12,110 72.4 16.LI

1 GUrain fcr humaan consu.-.otion available from domestic production was estimated assuming: that 10, of the harvrest ws used for seed, for feed, or otherwise was lost. Rcgarding the balance of the harvest, the following: assumptions were made: one-half of thei Amarn crop was avail.ble in the same year as harvested and one-half during the following year; all cf the Aus crop was availArble in thet year in which it Mas harvest-. ed; all of the Boro crop was available during the year follcwing harvest; the balance of cther grain,s were available id the year in which they were harvested. 2/ One-half of the imported grains are assumed available during the year of import and one-hailf available the following year. 3/ Changcs in stocks during tho year pertain only to governrent-owned inventories. iGnus sign indicates inventory increase during the year. E/ Total of the preceding Ls columns. 3/ Figures for 1969/70 are estimates based on figures available for only part of the yeair. No change in government stock was assumed.

SOURCES: Original data fror1Ministry of Agriculture and Works, Planning Commission, and Ministry of Finance, Govcrrunernt through 1966/67: and subsequently Govcrn;ment Of West Pakistan, Planning and Development Bonrd, Bureau of Food and Statistics Department, LAhore. Estimates for 1969/70 used data from Foroign Agriculture Service, U.S.D.A., 1970. BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

FOODGRAIN PR.0DUCTIC11 AND IMPORTS PRIOR ro 19'70

D0o~ZssIc PRODUCTION :reomrs TOTAL AVAILABL 7l'(OC= = (O-70 LG. TONS) (OO G TFJS)

YEAF5 RICZ W1{EAT TOTAL RICE 1WMIAT TOTAL RICE WHEAT TOTAL

55/56 .59/60 Average 7,51 0 2L 7,530 81489 503 7,920 113 8,030 60/61 64/65 Average 9,700 37 9,7h0 336 438 774 10,00 475 10,510 195'/C66 10,3:30 35 10,:370 360 529 889 10,690 564 11,260 19665/67 9,:'o 58 9uo80 432 647 '1,079 9,850 705 10,560 1967/68 10,99?0 58 11,050 308 712 '1,020 11,300 770 12,070 1968/69 11,160 92 11,260 236 883 '1,119 11,oO0 975 12,380 1969?/70 11,7-LO 1o0 II, io 502 1,0L5 '1,547 12,210 1,150 13,360 SCTIS7E: Planning Departmexit, Government of East Pakistan and Weite-Hattelsater Engineers, Economic Study; Foodgrain Storage and Handling Facilities - Chalna -; Khulna Area, June 1970. TABLE VII -1i

B"JIuJWLl3S -broYTUI bTUDY JUTE ACREAGE. PRODUCTION AND YIELD

Acreage Production Yield per Acre

.%I .7 1,8 n,v 6,on 0.07 1918-h9 1,877 4,890 2.61 1949-50 1561 I.l 3 Year Average a,d32 62.50

1950-51 1,711 5,360 3.13 1951-52 1,779 5,655 3..8 1952-53 1,907 6,o0o 3.19 1953-:5h 965 3,225 3.34 19Uk-<< ~~1.2L3 b.165 3 35 5 Year Average 1,521 ZF7 99 37 1955-56 1,716 4,995 2.91 1956-~5I 1,234 .4,925 24.00 155758 1,563 5,535 3.54 i;/,>U ;)> J. J ,> u 2 ))_ ;k 1959-60 I375 4i 960 3.61 5 Year Average 1,L4D

1960-61 1,518 5,625 3.70 1961-62 2,061 6, 96 3.38 1962-63 1,723 6,300 3.65 1963-64, 1,700 5,875 3 5 1964-65 1j 66o 5,328 YYear Average 1. 712 63019

966-67 2,332 6,862 2.95 '- 7_-' Cl 41, i.n 6, 850 . Q 196o- 69 2,219 5,831 2.65 1969-70 e.l!D_ 7,j0 e .u; 5 Year Average 2,3 00 ,-61 2.90

1!ote: 1 B.ale = hO°O 2bs.

Source: Planning Departnerit, except for 1969-70 which is from Economic Survev of East Pakistan. 190Q9-70, and 1 947-48 to Qr959-; frem Statistical Digest of East Pakistan, No. 5. TABLE VII .-16

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY TEA ACREAGE, PRODUCTION AND YILD

Year Area Production Yield Ta-c) Tm~ilion 1D) (lb/ac)

,96178, IIA-)3_ 58. 61

i6729,858 51.83 6'e9 / YLoe I LU)UL7 ;~f 6Or±

1964 86,L495 63.20 731 1965 9o,155 60.36 670

1966 93,549 62.90 672

7 97,091 64.50 664

1968 10O, 331 62.91 666 1969 103,561 66.8o 645

1970 105,731 68.0oo / 662

lI/ Droucht year.

SC,urkc :: . ort o! - Tca o s-r- .iect Dec. 80 1970 TABLE VII -17 BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY TOBACCO ACREAGE, PRODUCTION AND YIELD

Area Production Yield per acre YAaw' (000 Acres) (million pounds) (po YdS) 19!7-1.8 131,300 89.2 761 1948-49 126,200 90.9 806 191j;-50 126,230 83.1 706 1950-51 128,300 85.8 75o 1 95;1 -52e 1, 0 8. eV 7 1952-53 130,600 98.0 8!140 1953-5 131,30 98.6 41 1954-55 135.,100 105.6 875 1955-56 112,900 80.2 796 1956-67 109,000 79.8 818 1957-58 106,853 68.0 726 19`8-59 110,700 103.2 842 1959-60 110,100 4.4 553 1Q20.-1 102.100 51.0 559 1961 -62 1076800 62.5 601 '962~=63 101 ,903 572 628 1963-64 100,700 55.5 616 *964-6,2 I WOJp JO C#.o I' < 1965-66 109,000 53.8 52 1966-O7 113,000 76.0 762 1967-68 112,003 78-0 780 1968-69 113i,003 89.6 7Y2

Source: St.-tIstic.-O. Diacst of Dist Pa!'s.^.n, To. 5: 1968, Froiii iurcc'Clratc of Argriculttue, o:-'n:_t oix East Pakistan TABLE VII -18

RANQLAnESH SWM¶OR STTMY SEED DISTRIBUTION (in -uds

Year Paddy Wheat Jute Potato

1963=64_1 _, _, _.n n8,2300COi n ronn % 1,90 1,3< 71,S8oO

9O-O .50, -uu ,,> (1aUJ.J,u

1966-67 61,720 13,665 2,660 > I6 1967-68 59,74z0 11, 741 2, 218 80,336 1968-69 60,000 27,880 14,ooo g,ood l969-70 72,000 17,100 8,500 54,000

Source: Coverjimcnt of East Pa-is.tan Plannin7 Dapartrien:t Econlo..ii Surv.eyr o} rast Peki.stan i.5D9-7 ., .. _ 9._ , . BANGELADESH - SECTOR STUDY MERTILI7E.R 0ONSIMPTION (ir thou.sa-nd tof

Ratio .ao-ng Io,'s of Fertilizer Nti'utrient - Nutrients Izraonitn .. Single Super Tri-ple Supc-r :u'riate of Year cul-whate Urea Phosp)lat Phospla.te Potash Total N PI 'J_ Tootal N B O.rf U?O

195-•6 11 - - 11 2.3 - - 2.3 2: 0: 0 59-O_77 25 25 5-7 - - 5.7 6: 0: 0 l 9'7-58 30 2 - 1 - 33 7.0 0-5 - 7.5 14: 1i: 0 19D, -59 30 14 - 1 - 35 7.9 0- -:5 8.516: 194 -60 32 8 - 2 - L2 10.3 0.9 - 11.2 10: .1 0 1;350-61 ,27 3 )0 2 6 1 616 19.0 3.0 0.5 22.5 6 I: 02 1961-62 29 30 3 b 1 67 20.0 2.0 0. 2:2. 10 1 02 l962-t3 25 40 3 3 2 73 24.0 2.0 1.0 27.0 12: 1 :05 1963-614 8 75 2 23 1l2 36.0 11.0 2.0 49.0 13 : : 5 1°614-O5 7 71 _ 19 14 101 314.0 9.0 2.0 1.05 17 : : 1 9 6 -66 :21 81 21 4 130 142.9 9.3 2.0 514.2 21 ; : I 15 666-67 6 119 34 5.4 4.1 ?5.8 14 : 4 : 1 1967-6b 115 10 21,7 70.9 20.2 14.9 96.0 14 : 1 :' 19(x3-'_693 '11 1) - L9 13 223 76.1 24.14 7. 105.0 10 3.3 : 1 1969-70 - 200 60) 15 275 92.2 30.2 9.2 131.6 10 : 3.3 : 1 *19.70-71 _ 23. - 11 29 375 112.6 57.0 14.4 103.4.o 3 : 41: 1

* Estimates of B.I).A.

Source: Fertilizers & A, ricultural Pevelotmn.ent in E. Pakist?n. 0 .1 FA/I-07);.ay 1971; eroouceT.g--lgO.C.D.r irom .,1568-197 from E?DA Action Program. -A1'iLiADE - nA^T^R V)T±UJJ DISTRICT SALES OF FERTILIZERS, 1969-70 (tons)

Districts Urea T.S.P. M.P. Total

1. Chittagong 34,200 9,00 1,4A00 4.5,100

2. Comilla 22,300 9,300 2,000 33,500

3. Dacca 19.800 6,200 11h00 27.h0L

Th}i~ ,ogra9 n is-'AM Qg 17OOn

5. rKshorega .j (Agr. dist.) 13,200 2l400 600 16,200

6. Noakhali 10,500 3,500 100 14.,100

7. Itmensingh 10,900 2,500 700 1I.,100

8. Dinajpur 7,300 5,100 1,500 13,900

9. Ra-shahi 9,100 3.200 1.000 13.300

10. S¢h ,R0 3,1n li9nntY 12,'700

12. Barisal 7,500 2,900 3003 10,800

13. Jessore 5,500 2,200 6003 8,300v

14. Rushtia JI,830 2,300 80o 7,800

15. Rhulna 6,600 900 200 7,700

16. Pab2na 5;,300 1,300 300 7,000

17. Tangfail 3,8CC) 2,000 300 6,100

18. Faridpurp 2,200 800) 500 3,500

19. Ctg. llill Tracts 1,900 1,033 300 3,200

20. Patual;hali 2,fi() 700) 100 2 ,1hO

TOTALF 196,1"00 65,66 15,000 277,100

Lot.o: TherJir:uxos above do not contain A. S. and S. P. whichlconstitute onV a gi.blo portion of the total. saic s. ourcc:jTesocrt hnnual ).969-'0, Est Pa;istan AOricultur al Dovolopmnt Couporation. TABLE VII -21

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

AREA RECEIVING PLANT PROTECTION (millir acres)

Plar.t prot-ection Aerial spraying by by Bangladesh Clentral Government Plari. raTolectlort Year Service Directorate Total

1959/60 0.1 0.2 0.3

1960/61 0.2 0.4 0.6

1961/62 0.2 0.7 0.9

1962/63 0.7 2.1 2.8

1963/64 0.6 2.2 2.8

1964/65 0.6 4.0 4.6

1965/66 0.5 4.8 5.3

1966/67 0.5 6.9 7.4

1967/68 1.0 6.4 7.4

1968/69 1.9 6.3 8.2 1/

1969/70 1.3 8.5 9.8

1/ Preliminary estimate. TABLE VII.-22

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

PLANT PROTECTION EQUIPMENT AND PESTICIDES

Equipment Pesticides Total Hand Hand Power actual sprayer Year sDraver sprayer number eauivalent Total

1959/60 - - 160 1964/65 - - 3,000 196S/66 44 5.000 5;044 15;044 469 1966/67 - - - 3,861 1967/68 4;010 170 4;R80 49570 18R57 1968/69 18,361 3,743 22,104 29,590 3,388 1969/70 20,770 ),89 40,859 81,037 9,940

Tot-a! 43,185 290Q 29 79,187 13,1A9q 99,A76

Source: Water Development and Agriculture Programme, Agricultural Development Corporation - September 1970. BANGLkDESH - SECTOR iSTUDY

INSTITUTIONAL CllEDIT TO AGRICULTURE (Tks million)

Agriculture Bangladesh Development Agriculture Land PorvinciaL Outstandlng FiLnance Bank of Agriculturala Mortgage Cooperative Taccavi Instityt:Lonal Year Corporattion Pakistan Developnt Bank Bankr Relief - Loans Total Credit_-

1947/48 - - - n. a. - - - 26.1 19413 - - - 0.2 1.5 - 1.7 18.2 1949/50 - - - 0.2 1.1 - 1.3 16.9

1950/51 - - - 0.2 1.1 - 1.3 16.13 1951 - - - O.:L 1.9 - 2.0 16.7 1952 - - - 0.2 1.9 - 2.0 14.7 1953 0.2 - - C.I - - 0.1 21.6 1954/55 0.4 - - C.IL 0.2 - 0.3 19.'9

1955/56 0.7 - - 0.2 0.7 - 0.9 24.2 1956 1.7 - - 0.2 1.0 - 1.2 24.83 1957 3.7 - - .I3 1.1 - 1.4 51.8 1958 6.1 2.5 - 0.3 3.5 24.0 2/ 36.5 53.'9 1959/60 7.9S 11.1 - 0.3 9.3 9.8 2! 38.5 74. 4

1960/61 10.4 11.5 16.3 n.a. 38.0 13.5 2/ 89.7 83.1 1961 - - 40.5 n.a. 40.0 21.5 2! 102.0 103.2 1962 - - 37.7 n.a. 27.9 29.0 94.6 115.2 196:3 - - 38.3 n.a. 34.8 38.4 112.6 142.2 1964/65 - - 36.5 n.a. 22.5 310.2 89.2 177.'9

1965/66 - - 41.5 n.a. 14.1 17.8 73.5 207.6 1961i - - 47.0 n.a. 24.0 19.0 90.1 n.a. 1967 - - 65.0 n.a. 49.6 1.5.3 116.1 n.a. 1968 - - 75.8 n.a. 77.8 25.4 179.0 n.a. 1969/70 - - 69.5 3/ n.a. IL14.7 310.0 3/ 151.6 n.a.

1/ Outstanding government loans as annual issued amount is not available. Includes government loans. Though not accurately quantifiable, a large portion is loans to farners for agriculture and relief - taccavi loans. 2/ Includes loans made by the relief departiment and the agricultural department. 3/ Preliminary estimate.

TABLE VII.-24 Page 1.

BANGLADESH - SECTORK STUDY

AGRICULTURE RESEARCH

Year Major Events Important Points

1905 Establishment of farm for This research station was agricultural research at Tejgaon, the first one on the Indian Dacca in undivided India. sub-continent.

1909 Establishment of first research laboratories on farm.

1938 Establishment of Agricultural Institute (Dacca Agricultural College).

1955-61 Submission of first scheme for The Ministry of Agriculture Dacca rice research institute. was interested in a rice research institute because the agriculture research station which looked into all asne-ts of agriculture, could not give enough attention to rirp research. The scheme was authorized and then canrelled in 1961.

1958A-61 Establclshm.nt- o%f Tuite p.sacnrnh ni-ringr this time, thei position~ Institute, Tea Research Center, of the Dacca Research station Atomic Ene-rgyCnfter, and Soil Adeteriorated_ as tepre-stiage of Survey. these new organizations rose,

anA the organizations'L. .LJL LIL.L1higher O ILtL* '..~. 6 L. . salaries led to a brain drain ofC staffr from Ithe station.

June 1962 Erstablishme,,t ofL Seedu Testing Laboratory at Ishurdi.

1962-64 Conducting of Nutrition Survey The survey revealed the of Bangladesh by the Ministry Bangladesh diet, particularly of Health, in collaboration with that of students, was deficient the Bio-Chemistry Department of in protein, oils, vitamins, Dacca University and the U. S. and calories. Department of Health.

1963-64 Establishment of Bangladesh The work of this station con- Fresh Water Fisheries Research siderably expanded the few Station, Chandpur. research efforts of the Directorate of Fisheries. TABLE II-24 Page 2

Year Major Events Important Points

1964 Beginning of cooperation between the Dacca Research instLitute anu the International Rice Research Institute (IKRI). i965 Starting of cooperative variety testing program between ARI and !RR!.

1966 Approval by Government of Second Revised Scheme for "Accelerated Rice Research Institute".

1969 Operation of Accelerated Rice The Institute is located at Research Institute begun. Joydebpur, Dacca and eight other sub-stations in 'Bangladesh. It is developing improved varieties and doing research on all aspects of production (e.g. fertilizer requirements).

June . Establishement of ARricultural The DurDose of this Board is 19701/ Research Board. to analyze research activities in the province and to evaluate manpower availability and capabilities.

.Tilv 1970 Starting of "Survey and Fore- The nronict is to do fipld casting of Insect Pests work and research on crops and Oitbreakn and Toxicological pests- and research on the Studies of Pesticides" effectiveness of pesticides.

1/ Recent history of research events in 1970 and 1971 is unclear because of the political conflict. TABLE VII -25

BANGLADESH - SECTOR STUDY

EXTENSION

Year Major Events Important Points

1906 Establishment of the Agriculture This Directorate had a skeleton Dirrctorate. staff for extension work.

1914 Appointment nf puniityv Director nf Extension with nucleus staff.

1947-50 Reorganization of Extension (1) Old Jute Regulation Department. Department em-lo-ees became Union Agricultural Assistants 4 and Than.a A gri -cultureOff4 cer s (2) An emphasis on training the farm.ers began.

1 , January Co-a-enceme p r 0 ofJtraecant t p -.-- .ia,. - storA twr 1969 included additions, alteration an Agricultural Extension Center. ofz A,5 andusdL[U I..~UIL~LLconstructionstoeJ sLL.LVLUL~ L.LUII Ut UnrI)IT- seed stores.

TABLE VIII-l

LAND CAPABILITY AND IMPROVED VARIETIES

Alternatives offered by Land .Capabilities and Improved Varieties Without Irrigation Additional. and Drainage/Flood with Irrigation Control Works 2nl (006 Acres) (m Acres)

Rice Boro/transplanted Aus: a) Traditional Varieties *15 1.4 _ b) IRRI Varieties O.6 - 15.6

Total 2.1 1.4 15.6

Broadcast Aus: a) Traditional Varieties a.5 1.0 b) IRRI Varieties (IR-176 (Chandina), IR-442) _-

Total 8.5 8.5

Transplanted Aman: a) Traditional varieties 9.3 - _ b) IRRI Variaties: i) IR-20 0.2 6.2* 1.7 ii);z-2-La LP4l' IR-176 (Chandina) and nion-photoes tve varieties in research pipeline 1.7* iii) IR-442, its improve- z-.nts -Rt

Suib-total 9=5 11,0

Broadcast AJman 5.5 4,Qo

Total 1q.0 15.0

Rice - Total 25.6 -

Crops Other Than Rice Jute 2.5 4.5* 0.5 Wheat 0.3 - Brassicas (Mustard and related crops) 0.5 12.0* Groundnuts: 0.1 - _ a) Rabi Season n.a. - 9.8 b) Kharif Season n.a. 3.1

Total 0.1 -

Sugarcane 0.4 3.9 3.9 -

* Yields will be improved if supplementaty irrigation is available. * Assuming that wheat is confined to areas N of lattitude 25ON

8- , . , , , - MAP 1 BANGLADESH

!,t ,_, i 1s-|AREAS , BEST SUITED FOR CONCENTRATED EXTENSION _ _..rRrEORT _ i------e, rOR IRRI RICE VARIETIES AND JUTE 2n --f^-] - . 'I 1971

126f , .

___ _ _._j_ M ; . = | - -; SCALE

I: I , e, .& : -I 40 oso s0 70 80 90 100 MILES - , -T,1. ~ i. Ir' -= 40 500 0 70 80 90 tOO 110 120 tILOMETERE

,, . _ I I~~rc-.L JI

4 . .-.- .. - i !.| . -..-^ - -

; { - r 1 c _ .j T, f -. .- .. - . r 1 1I ~~~~~ t q 8- a --- -

_ - 1_ -~ - - . _ _ | s-- t : ' .~ 1- ~ l t -- - SgX- 1-- -~-!--7

rI - I I,,,- ;'EJ\jlAI, C _4 -- I ! - .- , . I - E'.L,. . -g' -Ti

0 .... ; --! |.n ;e~~~~~~~~I--i - 1 4t-!is

C. . IC

'5 tIe~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ y

b'-1*-1,j\S{=-,I I_ , L . I

K -F _~~~~~~~ = r I , ; , -p- [ Ji-__l-- ~~~~~Lw~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~ [3 0 e _: 90° |. .7~~~~I' -J, 91t--Nc='I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ,~e -_ 4F4C 89° j_ ~L,; _ ,_ TCC'_ , _ . _ _ _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-

Broadcast aund V1man Ballha-plat,d -d t,-pl-ted man twithout rimgation); or bora/transp anted | with tubewell i,rig.ti-n aus and trarsplanied aman (with tubewell. Inrigation). , Booltanplanted aus iwith tbawell L li-rg.tio.) and transplanted aman tpartle _v Bo /r.flanpla.ted aus twithl.w-Bhftpump with tubewell ngail irriga" n and transtal-ted aman (pa,tly iriated with low-lift Pump irigation). 7 Jute Ithanas where iute occupies more i 4L1than 10%of the net cultivated .,ea).z _

Boro (.,th fov- if0t P-mP irr9gati-- - 3A-e included in Ongoing Project.

______MAP 2 - -- ;, ___ __ ] s BANGLADESH- |-- - t

L \NID S,LITWIIILIT1\ FOR IWO( DI 'ST I1RR1I%LS

------1~ t,~- ~~. .JR . I | |1 /e,l__ 8 >,, t I,t,t,>-,,* - ......

|------'

- ---

- --- 1 =' -- ...... _F.61e=...... -m; __ ' B;E M i----s -M e r;I~ P.-|s | I-; , ) | * | r \ ;, | }'| _ K_ I- 9 - 'ifi,

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_ ;_ r._ , _ __ , ~~~~~~~~~~~~-_,Sos w,-%'S4Ir I;i_ __-______z~-_ -~-l--'-_ --,__,- - l n; SI~~_ - I ;r'.;.. ~~~~~,~~ _ ., ~_ -S_,_ - t-l1r __r _ ' ' - -- -r '' ' ,rS. .WJ F- '_Iz ----.------I)_|J__j' .- _l -I .,I I~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I__

i - - '||! - '| re | A i ;.~I _° i II tC J ~~~ - -'i , g~- ____~ ~~ / ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~5,1 ; ! .| , : ;, t {I lr __1-_ ; i>,Bt_1 r\-_ \__(r _ _ ----

I J 1 h ' L r. .:1.-J -*--It..zi ..: 1 T 1, . ,,4 Ni ,N\ Il_ I,L pR j I ______I, , , _ 71

~~~~~~~~I I , ,,,,,,,1-,;,.;,,,,,,....,ii;

4%~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ l

_ 1_'_-__ , _ _ _ _ _,_1_ _ .. .I

; . 'r3° ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~MAP3 ------. -i -,------BANGLADESH

. - ,,5 | 1n-' ''' 5 ,-e- I'~~~ROPO(RTION )\:t- L %\1-)i;LlIT 1BLE _t- ,_ , ^ s_ _ t , FOR TR NNSPL NTEI. IRRI XM -\N D N - L-Utt1-

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J'X1 L E'.. I .G".->>0__S__s;

~~b l_ > _;~~~~~~~~ ;___,-,, t._t_- jlt __lr_ -_;__ __i__;_ -; 1~~~~~~~~~ :. .S ,7 X tS J~S u 0

.Tlano- r -, *k F | - 0 r Je-|c q 1,t.* 'Li4A,ll ,'-Ya! 9v' '

_~~~~~~~~~~~ A_ _ _-A-, 4 ,_,--.Da< L1 -r--

; --,1 Z -, ' ,LEGEND , , _--.'

------,1 ~ :,WIHOU '> WITg- 1,'wJ,,f I.,

9- i Xsw~~30 - 50_! _% ,

= 10% - 30% : 1-,_

1105 or less |

NOTE: These etimates.---nsrvtive

sr D)- 3687

p-_-Mo rQlPo 4

,,,. . I - .,1 ; - .,,BANGLADESH

ADDIII Lr0I'RODIL'CTI[ONCrPr)ITiON POSiSIBLE FROMI ffl11 ui;il |11 1 -- <-5, -NTRODLCTION I- OF IRRI(J0 TII-D IRRI RIL-E

- ' I'~ - ,, , ______1___? . M I Li i >tI- -SM 1 1 1; - l | I | . I

,i~II | r. 1 ,;,i,. ,ra|.;pj, yt -¢

', . I I R

! - i ; t i | r - i ,, g ~, ,;-, - _ _ . .

|1R~~ it : 1 w 1 I , 1 , i ' > -- ; ~ j | I j i _ -- .l !; - | !'1; p---- , r a . s ~~~~11- i, N -i-t

! N ~IS~L~-- I; -* I ; II If'

i- 1 ~~1I .~~Ira'jOO..~~L I.

. _ _, _ _ _ ,I I _ ,1_. _ .- - _ _ -

:;'~ I at 'I ',,'

E i o n I D I - --- 1 3- --- ._ I _ _ 4 '-,-1--a C: ~~I I ,** ' 1,; DW-

<> 4 ,,< 1- ,J:{!, S__ ___ ,.__ --

89 ..~ ~ \ FA.. ftu, I ' I. ',

= birTajat o mot f ,f

5 dkplaci.q de.p-ter aaranII!uGO'arand nor

LEGEND! i

A. One addit onalrnpatdicBSbtiuontransplanted rice - ---! ! crop P.11sble with irrigation B.S.sitto o n flowranspld.ntedr icel - .:.. t -, l- | -- _ ...... - RI boroortr plantd s possible ith rrigati |possible _| on most ofarea IRRlboroortransplantedau]R as ' ; d displacingdeepwater aman and/or , -,-

. {-=2I RR I boro prtransplanted aus iatS rea A . | ; ..r --= p-sibleonrabout halftof area IRRI oro o ntraac seplanteraaad l ,a - ; -

RRRI boro or transplanted aus b dcast aus on about half of area ... Ipossible on part of area; much I z2 IRRP I boro or transplanted

irrigated boro '1ll b,rsoadcanst-aduesonaplaert omf area;nSo much of the area already producing irrigated b...

; L a.-'.--l. . .. 'S.-< 's ,,._ ...... I ...- O p

r _,0-5 '!'_i'-'a

zFE ;L f l< ' fi1~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~5,, 1 00i4 ¢0. ,0 ,$ ,7,

o:'. WE- bi ____Q _ -: o'< ,; - - -: , --~~~--.-.,, ' ~ t . .

( . y _. - t-''- w ~F ~ i) , , r' s -'s I -

_s - :_- - t-- - i - - [z - -- r - - . .

-~~ !1~~ ~ ~-~~~~ ==- ~ z 1-A

_[ 0 _, tD <_~ ~~~~~~~~~~------~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-

_~ I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~3 cF ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~IR~

88 ;_T\ 1 0 9Oi |_,. 7t = DMAP BANGLADESH

LAND DEVELOPMENT UNITS

I A J PUR T

9 1 30 40 - 60 hiug 1. go 0 MILE

-25~~~~~~~~~~~~B

4 'Sorrhr,FtdptsraS~~~~~~~~~~~~~~flnMy stain PsOOpltnsrost . ply dos-,.,?C b h

NW (NorthweshRagion) C Ragios) SW LCntral(athcSa Rcgjon E (EaoacrnRagion(

2 NorOarmpan a! old FHiur lapa padarant plain I AhIIo5Brh aruhprba dpIuln I AcalosGoaga flu dpIrin I Naflherrpiadmon plakht, r __ 2SOuthrIp.0thf aIdHrra.Isyan rdraar,plc, 2 SortSMrtrcairt piada,rttplAn ZMchu5ndgaran. 2E65 ataS ooSXryr nfirs1 d3Nrrthrrrpnnor71.Tbaspplol 3 SipSpurrs 1512b.usOu"tr,lodpIo,n S Crta.KrrrroadakPrarsanArOs sscpr rdas 3bySpebtltsAn tDtdla ei _

°Stdtharrpcrt rC70 !.s. S Wss rnrsisfh hdP 1m 4 Sohub assonrisgr s 5dpl1n | r;t S. repiurramuasPdst6rr c Sarrr Mrh.Xcirh SC Isculai.Ofl.lnarw banshot .'." ' ..'.' .t' D . dANogha-asrt Osoos 6 Ngnsaltas C.nrrh lshl dprsi,r 6 Mlddk 4ghaltshn9plims\ ll .,f 4 Hshiaid Drhrsroh r. rtds -2 7 aSlitraCungu BAsh Ssdpl,or 11 7 Eaaslrnhtsasrash p1m5 \

7 t^LMasantnArs, ospii hpr, o Gnsndli 5 NOkrsfelrrahro catploasorpr S nt 555ataItsOh ttrgraras itsr 150..0 S ,oasar no.bnrr3sbsObsS uth DhSOOIIO 0mronohrs s Sylhol;t

Mol,"d.oO cr5hgg psrrh opOtaIoptr or, OrDhc ddlasam,raond SyIarMpmflsar laoqgHrsiloc=\sot4ngDdC Dh D Tbh 8r5 hm.pgICSnioPP)hcirlnosrnairusrdgo dd S ,g hh2asrs h~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~uscrrs Amb55IprAchlbl poor flloopdplsOd _d 12Aq1hqasar3nrifdo12Ato,s G thfl Ostbltm RegronarBaurdahlds 13 Lotfelarlrtdtoar 15Madhsp.rarchh U tnudre

IERD3272