G.38 STATEMENT OF CORPORATE INTENT JULY 2018–JUNE 2023
Mai i te rangi, ki te nuku o te whenua, ka puta te ira tangata i te po, i te whaiao, ki te ao mārama. Ko Te Pū Ao mātou.
From the sky and the land, came people from the night, from the old world, to the world of light. We are GNS Science. UPCOMING MILESTONES
AUCKLAND’S CARBON EMISSIONS GEONET ENHANCEMENTS We are leading a project to determine Auckland’s first full The GeoNet system is undergoing major enhancements, carbon budget. The project uses atmospheric measurements including the establishment of a dedicated 24/7 operations to determine not only Auckland’s fossil fuel carbon emissions centre by December 2018. It will mean increased capability but also account for Auckland’s ‘land carbon sink’—the to provide fast and accurate information on earthquakes, exchange of carbon with the urban biosphere. We believe volcanic unrest, tsunamis, and landslides. The upgrades that Auckland’s land carbon sink could remove a substantial will provide new decision support tools and visualisation amount of carbon from the atmosphere. Our study will collect software that will enable duty officers to make faster and the first city-scale evidence as to whether this is occurring, more accurate assessments of geological hazards. Faster and if so, how much carbon is being removed. Findings detection of threats and more specific advice will ultimately will inform Auckland Council’s carbon emission mitigation lead to reduced risk to life and property. strategy and will be incorporated into New Zealand’s Paris Climate Agreement commitments. JULY 2018–JUNE 2019
SHINING A LIGHT ON SUBDUCTION PROBING ZEALANDIA Together with international research teams we are collecting New Zealand’s largest ever Earth science endeavour is a large amount of seismic data to better understand the underway with the 23-nation International Ocean Discovery hazard posed by Hikurangi subduction zone, which lies off Program (IODP) completing six expeditions to Zealandia, the eastern coastline of the North Island. Advances in seismic the largely submerged continent of New Zealand, and the hazard assessment depend on a better understanding of Ross Sea. GNS Science is a key player in this initiative, which the physical environment and mechanisms that control the is acquiring seabed cores to better understand the forces earthquake, slow-slip, and creeping behaviours that occur on that generate earthquakes and drive plate tectonics, the this subduction zone. Detailed 3D images of the subduction workings of a seafloor volcano, and probe the mechanisms of zone will help define the potential for great subduction submarine landslides. The research is also delivering insights earthquakes and tsunamis at the Hikurangi margin. on how a warmer climate impacted the South Pacific and West Antarctica in the geological past. PROFILING OUR SUPER-VOLCANOES OUR RISING TIDES We are planning to publish a landmark geological map of the We are working with our partners to provide accurate entire Taupo Volcanic Zone. The first comprehensive map projections of sea-level rise and its impact on New Zealand. of its type, it will cover all active volcanoes from Ruapehu Parts of the Antarctic Ice Sheets are particularly sensitive to White Island and include Earth’s most-productive to the warming oceans and could add over a metre to global super-volcano system. The well-illustrated book and sea level by the end of the century and 10-20 metres in the accompanying map will detail the volcanic geology and longer term. Our ice core and sedimentary programmes will evolution of the zone. It will incorporate advances over the provide accurate projections of sea-level rise and assess the past decade from our 1:250,000 scale geological mapping impact on our shores. These projections will help to improve (QMAP) programme, including the evolution of the Taupo- New Zealand’s resilience to sea-level rise, and will inform Okataina super-volcano system. adaptation and mitigation strategies.
JULY 2018–JUNE 2019 JULY 2019–JUNE 2020
PROTECTING OUR GROUNDWATER SMARTER BUILDINGS We are leading the development of a range of new computer We are developing a new system for measuring the inter- modelling tools to help with the management of New storey movement of buildings during earthquakes. This Zealand aquifers. There are about 200 known aquifers movement is a key measure in assessing the potential in New Zealand and groundwater currently accounts for damage to a building, helping engineers decide whether about a third of all freshwater usage. The novel, world- a building can be quickly and safely re-entered. The leading toolbox includes components for risk assessment technology is easily retrofitted and helps to ensure business and uncertainty analysis to support decision-making. The continuity by reducing the time it takes to re-enter a modelling tools will be much faster and more powerful than workplace and restart cashflow. We are working with those currently in use. When fully available, it is expected Kiwinet, a government-supported network of research the new models will deliver benefits worth about $350 providers, and private sector companies, to determine its million a year to New Zealand. commercial potential. GNS SCIENCE PROFILE
Institute of Geological and Trading as GNS Science Nuclear Sciences Limited
Head Office 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon, Lower Hutt 5010
Other Locations National Isotope Centre, 30 Gracefield Road, Lower Hutt 5010 Dunedin Research Centre, 764 Cumberland Street, Dunedin 9016 Wairakei Research Centre, 114 Karetoto Road, RD4, Taupō 3384
Postal Address PO Box 30368, Lower Hutt 5040
Web Address www.gns.cri.nz
Ownership Crown-owned entity, established under the Crown Research Institutes Act 1992
Board Chairman, Dr Nicola Crauford Deputy Chair, Ms Sarah Haydon Director, Prof. Steve Weaver Director, Mr Chris Bush Director, Dr John Sharpe Director, Mr Paul White
Chief Executive Mr Ian Simpson General Manager, Strategy, Prof. Tim Naish General Manager, Stakeholder Relations, Dr Justine Daw General Manager, Science, Dr Peter Benfell General Manager, Business Services, Mr Allan Frost General Manager, People & Culture, Ms Rose MacFarlane
4 CONTENTS
Delivering on Our Vision �������������������������������������������������������������6
Statement of Core Purpose �������������������������������������������������������8
Operating Environment ����������������������������������������������������������� 10
Government Priorities ���������������������������������������������������������������14
Sector Priorities ����������������������������������������������������������������������� 16
National Science Challenges ���������������������������������������������������� 22
Natural Hazards Research Platform ����������������������������������������24
Implementing Vision Mātauranga ��������������������������������������������26
Operational Initiatives �������������������������������������������������������������30
Our Research ��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 32
Horizon Scanning �������������������������������������������������������������������� 66
Performance Monitoring ��������������������������������������������������������� 68
Financial Forecasting ���������������������������������������������������������������70
Accounting Policies ����������������������������������������������������������������� 74
CONTENTS 5 DELIVERING ON OUR VISION
This Statement of Corporate Intent (SCI) outlines our priorities and goals for the period July 2018 to June 2023 to deliver on our vision of a cleaner, safer, more prosperous New Zealand, and meet the expectations of our Shareholding Ministers. The Government’s expectations are clear: GNS Science’s purpose is to undertake research that drives innovation and economic growth in New Zealand’s geologically- based energy and minerals industries, develops industrial and environmental applications of nuclear science, increases New Zealand’s resilience to natural hazards, and enhances understanding of geological and Earth-system processes.
Aligned with the Government’s Five themes emerged: A review of our science programmes National Statement of Science has led to a shift in emphasis of our 1. Investing for and with purpose— Investment (NSSI) and priorities for SSIF investment towards: linking our role, purpose and activities Research, Science and Innovation, we with New Zealand’s strategic needs; »» exploring the continent of will invest our resources to deliver Zealandia; excellent science and profound 2. From ‘decision taker’ to ‘decision impact that addresses the six maker’—improving our connections »» understanding hazards and risks; Outcome Statements identified with officials and government; »» understanding New Zealand’s in our Statement of Core Purpose 3. Culture change—organisational groundwater resource; (SCP). Our research, across four before individual activity, where our Core Science Areas (CSAs) and 12 »» enhancing support for Vision strategic direction drives our funding; Themes, is supported by a mix of Mātauranga research; and funding from the Crown (Strategic 4. Deep partnering—enhancing our »» developing a strategy for managing Science Investment Fund - SSIF, ability to partner with other CRIs and ‘big data’. and contestable), EQC (support organisations; and for GeoNet), and domestic and To allow for this shift in emphasis we 5. Awareness—improving stakeholder international commercial clients. are reducing investment in petroleum, engagement and upweighting minerals, and geothermal research. communications. Strategic review We are retaining science capability In March 2017, a strategic review, This SCI is indicative of the planned in these fields so that New Zealand’s involving wide stakeholder changes in leadership, operational science needs are met while enabling consultation, was initiated to structure, and science investment. effective SSIF investment for long- create a clearer, shared view of As such, it is transitional in nature, term impact. our role and purpose, and improve overemphasising some aspects internal systems and processes, and of GNS Science operation, which collaboration. will be de-emphasised in future SCIs when the new strategy is fully implemented.
6 DELIVERING ON OUR VISION Major science initiatives Implementing Te Rautaki We are working with officials at MBIE Māori and MCDEM to expand New Zealand’s Our Māori strategy (Te Rautaki Māori) capacity for monitoring and assessing will continue to guide our efforts to geohazard risk. The Government support Māori-relevant science and investment of $19.5 million over innovation and to incorporate Vision 4 years for Enhanced Geohazard Mātauranga into our research. We will Monitoring (EGM), will see the endeavour to take all opportunities to establishment of a 24/7 operations unlock the potential of GNS Science- centre by December 2018, providing Māori relationships through the timely information to inform both use of Māori advisory panels that quick response to events and long- help inform our science and Māori term planning. Priority is being placed relationship development. on awake monitoring and improved earthquake and tsunami advice. Public Good Science Delivery After more than 150 years of service We are also playing a leading role in to New Zealand, GNS Science will a multi-national IODP geoscientific continue its evolution as a national drilling programme taking place in science provider. In setting our new New Zealand waters in 2017-19. IODP direction for future research and membership, via the Australia-New Dr Nicola Crauford, development, we are taking the Zealand ANZIC consortium, allows Chairman opportunity to sharpen our focus, us to use scientific drilling ships to grow our partnerships and capability, answer important questions relating improve our internal corporate to geological hazards, climate change, culture, and enhance our national and and the hidden continent of Zealandia, international reputation. We remain bringing more than 150 scientists into optimistic that the current downturn the region to undertake collaborative in geoscience consultancy activity research that will continue for many within New Zealand will reverse, and years. that our recent success in securing We are hosts to both the Resilience MBIE (Endeavour) and Royal Society Challenge and the Natural Hazards of New Zealand (Marsden) research Research Platform (NHRP). The contracts will continue, allowing us second five-year phase of the to deliver on the research described Resilience Challenge involves herein, and the array of impacts and integration of key areas of the NHRP, benefits they promise. as we look to the future needs of the New Zealand natural hazards science eco-system.
Ian Simpson, Chief Executive
DELIVERING ON OUR VISION 7 STATEMENT OF CORE PURPOSE
GNS Science’s Purpose GNS Science will fulfil its Purpose To achieve these Outcome through the provision of research Statements (OS), GNS Science is the is to undertake research and transfer of technology and lead Crown Research Institute in: that: knowledge in partnership with key »» geothermal energy, oil, gas, gas stakeholders, including industry, hydrates; • drives innovation and Government and Māori, to: »» mineral resources; economic growth OS1: Increase resource security in New Zealand’s and economic benefit from the »» geological hazards, risk mitigation geologically-based development and diversification of and societal impacts of natural New Zealand’s oil, gas, geothermal hazards; energy and minerals energy and minerals industries »» earth-system processes and industries; OS2: Increase New Zealand’s landscape evolution; resilience to natural hazards and • develops industrial »» groundwater processes and quality; reduce risk from earthquakes, and environmental volcanoes, landslides and tsunamis »» the geological component of global environmental processes and applications of nuclear OS3: Improve the sustainable climate change; and science; management of and increase economic returns from groundwater »» application of nuclear technology • increases resources and isotope science and ion beam technology. New Zealand’s OS4: Create value for New Zealand resilience to natural industry through the use of isotope hazards; and and ion beam technologies OS5: Increase understanding of • enhances the geology and past climates of understanding of New Zealand, the Ross Dependency and Antarctica geological and earth- system processes. OS6: Enhance the geotechnical engineering that underpins New Zealand’s transport and energy infrastructure
8 STATEMENT OF CORE PURPOSE GNS Science will work with other »» maintain a balance of research »» enable the innovation potential of research providers and end-users to that both provides for the near- Māori knowledge, resources and contribute to the development of: term requirements of its sectors people; and demonstrates vision for their »» high-value manufacturing »» maintain its databases, collections longer-term benefit; »» freshwater management and infrastructure and manage »» transfer technology and knowledge the scientific and research data it »» hazards management from domestic and international generates in a sustainable manner, »» ocean floor exploration sources to key New Zealand providing appropriate access and stakeholders, including industry, maximising the reusability of data »» climate change adaptation and government and Māori; sets; and mitigation »» develop collaborative relationships »» seek shareholder consent for »» Antarctica with other CRIs, universities and significant activity beyond its other research institutions (within scope of operation. GNS Science will: New Zealand and internationally) to »» operate in accordance with a form the best teams to deliver its Statement of Corporate Intent and Core Purpose; business plan that describes how GNS Science will deliver against this »» provide advice on matters of its Statement of Core Purpose, and expertise to the Crown; describes what the shareholders »» represent New Zealand’s interests will receive for their investment; on behalf of the Crown through »» meet its obligations as a Crown contribution to science diplomacy, Company and remain financially international scientific issues and/ viable, delivering an appropriate or bodies as required; rate of return on equity; »» seek advice from scientific and »» develop strong, long-term user advisory panels to help ensure partnerships with key stakeholders, the quality and relevance of its including industry, government research; and Māori, and work with them to »» establish policies, practices and set research priorities that are well culture that optimise talent linked to the needs and potential of recruitment and retention; its end-users;
STATEMENT OF CORE PURPOSE 9 OPERATING ENVIRONMENT
In setting our investment priorities as laid out in this SCI, we take guidance from the NSSI 2015-25, and other Government drivers (see pages 14 and 15). We will meet the shareholders’ expectation that investment in science be relevant to stakeholder needs and contribute to New Zealand’s economic, social, cultural, and environmental well-being. Emerging opportunities and challenges for New Zealand’s use of its natural capital will increasingly demand the application of research carried out by GNS Science. Important is the increasing role of Māori in the management and economic use of geological resources, and the mitigation of natural hazards.
Evolution of the New Zealand science Countering this, we expect some We have budgeted accordingly, with system, particularly the impact of the modest revenue growth from the a forecast of modest revenue growth National Science Challenges Phase 2 National Science Challenges as well from $94.4 million in 2018-19 to strategies, and expectations around as continued incremental growth in $95.5 million in 2019-20. Expenditure the use of SSIF with respect to the international commercial contracts. will remain under tight control Programmes Investment Contract and These tend to be larger in size and throughout this period. pending Impact Evaluation process, longer term than domestic contracts, In setting our priorities we consider are factors in the constrained fiscal but timing is uncertain and there are the research and service needs of environment in which we will operate additional risks involved in operating the main sectors we serve, and key over the next five years. in foreign jurisdictions, as well as Government strategies, to deliver potential risks to our staff. We Although Treasury has forecasted maximum impact and, ultimately, have a process for mitigating these positive economic growth over the outcome benefit for the nation. risks, or declining to participate, as next three years, peaking at 3.6% in Maintaining our strong tradition appropriate. This increased focus on 2018-19, we expect the spending of of collaboration and stakeholder the offshore allows us to continue central and local government, and our engagement will ensure that we to work with the Government to New Zealand commercial clients, to will tackle only the highest priority Government (G2G) initiative to be constrained. Low oil prices and flat research. The research needs seek new offshore clients, and domestic electricity demand persist, of Government, industry, and promotion of New Zealand Crown- and this, together with a tailing-off of community partners are determined funded intellectual property (IP) and Canterbury and Kaikoura earthquakes by various means, including advice expertise. recovery work, is having a direct from our Strategic Science and User impact on our ability to earn New Advisory Panel, programme-specific Zealand commercial revenue. advisory groups, and sector-based strategic groups, such as Straterra,
10 OPERATING ENVIRONMENT PEPANZ, the Land and Water Forum, On page 30 we outline strategies for CSA1: Science for a Cleaner NZ and the New Zealand Geothermal building deeper relationships and – providing critical information Association. We also obtain input collaborations with key stakeholders, for more-effective management to our research plans via regular such as EQC, to secure longer- of climate and sea-level change, engagement with government term funding streams. We are also groundwater, air quality, and land use organisations and clients, such as seeking to develop new sources of [relates to OS3 and OS5] EQC, Contact Energy, and Mercury NZ. revenue such as commercialisation CSA2: Science for a Safer NZ of IP via engagement with Callaghan We maintain cutting-edge research – enhancing the nation’s ability Innovation-initiated technology through regular participation at to understand, mitigate, and incubators. international conferences and communicate the effects of membership of major international Our vision of a cleaner, safer, more earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, forums, such as the Global prosperous New Zealand translates tsunami, and landslides [OS2 and OS6] Earthquake Model (GEM), International into three applied Core Science Areas CSA3: Science for a More Ocean Discovery Programme (IODP), (CSAs), underpinned by a fourth. Prosperous NZ – developing new the International Partnership for Twelve themes describe the research knowledge and tools to optimise Geothermal Technology (IPGT), undertaken across the CSAs, and discovery and sustainable use of our the International Energy Agency- these relate to 20 Impact Statements geothermal energy, petroleum, and Geothermal Implementing Agreement (see pages 37 to 65). Collectively, mineral resources, and developing (IEA-GIA), and the Intergovernmental these statements encompass our new materials for high-value Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). These full research capability, and underline manufacturing [OS1 and OS4] interfaces also help to ensure that we our ability to deliver on our six SCP collaborate widely with the national Outcome Statements (OS). CSA4: Underpinning Geoscience and international research community Knowledge – generating, managing to form ‘best teams’ to provide and communicating geoscience comprehensive and effective science information, data and collections solutions. to underpin applied research, policy development, and decision making [OS1 to OS6]
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 11 CORE SCIENCE THEMES IMPACTS AREAS
Past, Present & 1. Towards a low-carbon economy Future Climates SCIENCE FOR A
CLEANER NZ 2. Improved water management Air, Water & Land 3. More-realistic air quality regulations
4. Effective response to hazard events Hazard Monitoring 5. Timely response to hazard events
Understanding 6. Better mitigation planning Hazards 7. Enhanced global research presence SCIENCE FOR A
SAFER NZ 8. Enhanced risk analysis and uptake Assessing Risk 9. National Seismic Hazard Risk Model
10. Better-informed policy development Societal & 11. Enhanced preparedness, response, and Economic recovery Resilience 12. Improved infrastructure design
Renewable 13. Enhanced operational efficiency Geothermal Energy 14. Greater socio-economic benefit
Petroleum 15. Improved resource management SCIENCE FOR Resources A MORE PROSPEROUS NZ Mineral Resources 16. Enhanced mineral prospectivity
New Materials & Processes 17. More energy-efficient products
18. Deeper understanding of crustal evolution Zealandia Revealed 19. Deeper understanding of Earth deformation UNDERPINNING and plate boundary processes GEOSCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE Geoscience 20. Enhanced database efficacy Information
Relative Investment >$4M $0.5-$4M <$500K
12 OPERATING ENVIRONMENT SCP OUTCOME STATEMENTS OS1 OS2 OS3 OS4 OS5 OS6
Past, Present & 1. Towards a low-carbon economy Future Climates SCIENCE FOR A
CLEANER NZ 2. Improved water management Air, Water & Land 3. More-realistic air quality regulations
4. Effective response to hazard events Hazard Monitoring 5. Timely response to hazard events
Understanding 6. Better mitigation planning Hazards 7. Enhanced global research presence SCIENCE FOR A
SAFER NZ 8. Enhanced risk analysis and uptake Assessing Risk 9. National Seismic Hazard Risk Model
10. Better-informed policy development Societal & 11. Enhanced preparedness, response, and Economic recovery Resilience 12. Improved infrastructure design
Renewable 13. Enhanced operational efficiency Geothermal Energy 14. Greater socio-economic benefit
Petroleum 15. Improved resource management SCIENCE FOR Resources A MORE PROSPEROUS NZ Mineral Resources 16. Enhanced mineral prospectivity
New Materials & Processes 17. More energy-efficient products
18. Deeper understanding of crustal evolution Zealandia Revealed 19. Deeper understanding of Earth deformation UNDERPINNING and plate boundary processes GEOSCIENCE
KNOWLEDGE Geoscience 20. Enhanced database efficacy Information
23% 53% 7% 6% 9% 2%
OPERATING ENVIRONMENT 13 GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES
The NSSI confirms the dual importance of science excellence—peer-reviewed research of international quality—and impact—strong line of sight via end-users to eventual benefits for individuals, businesses or society.
NSSI Goals Our Actions
A better-performing science system We will focus our activities on our vision of a cleaner, safer, more that is larger, more agile and more prosperous New Zealand, and apportion our resources appropriately. We responsive, investing effectively will balance our activities to achieve immediate benefit and longer-term for long-term impact on our health, impact: 44% of revenue will be directed towards leverage of proven ideas economy, environment, and society. (time to impact 1-2 years), 43% towards development of emerging ideas (time to impact 3-5 years), and 13% towards generation of new ideas (time to impact 6-15 years). This revenue will be derived from an appropriate mix of core, contestable, and commercial projects (see bar graph, page 32). We will review and, where necessary, redirect our research to ensure responsiveness to New Zealand’s changing needs, with stakeholder input obtained through close alignment of our research activities with our commercial contracts. We will support innovation and agility (discovery science) by directing a proportion of our SSIF towards short-term (1-2 year) strategic development initiatives.
Growth in Business Expenditure on We will transfer our scientific knowledge and expertise to end-users, R&D to well above 1% of GDP, driving thereby assisting them to undertake in-house R&D. This will occur through a thriving independent research our commercial contracts with businesses, government agencies and sector that is a major pillar of the foreign companies, joint research programmes with businesses, and on- New Zealand science system. going partnership with the University of Auckland Product Accelerator and membership of KiwiNet and Return on Science.
Reduced complexity and increased We will ensure that our research outputs are accessible and comply with transparency in the public science the Open Government Information and Data Programme. Our Nationally system. Significant Databases, together with several other key datasets, are already publicly accessible through web sites or application programming interfaces (APIs).
14 OUR CONTRIBUTION TO GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES NSSI Goals Our Actions
Continuous improvement in We will contribute to New Zealand’s high standing in the global New Zealand’s international scientific community through participation in high-profile international standing as a high-quality R&D collaborations such as the Thwaites Glacier project (see page 36), and destination, resulting in the IODP drilling of our submarine territories (see pages 2, 7 and 62), the latter attraction, development and representing an investment of c. $120 million in New Zealand science, c. retention of talented scientists, and $30 for every dollar invested by New Zealand in the researchand impact direct investment by multinational indicators, such as the ‘Nature Index’. organisations. We will attract, develop and retain talented scientists by strengthening leadership, direction, and delivery, and initiating a culture change programme redefining who we are, how we behave, and the way we work (see page 30). We will actively work to maintain our reputation for science excellence, as reflected in our consistently top performance in Endeavour and Marsden fund bidding and delivery, and in international science quality and impact indicators, such as the ‘Nature Index’
Comprehensive evaluation and We will enhance our own performance evaluation and monitoring by monitoring of performance, implementing improved systems for integrated administration and underpinned by easily available, reporting, document management, research reporting, and stakeholder reliable data on the science system, engagement (see page 31). to measure our progress towards these goals.
The Government priorities for Research, Science and Innovation Investments, as expressed in the Annual Letter of Owner’s expectation (February 2018), cover two broad areas.
Sustaining economic development Supporting a rich and and supporting the regions protected environment The need to diversify the economy by Our research into natural gas and The Government understands that investing in new industries, creating gas-hydrate resources recognises a healthy economy depends on a new businesses, and new ways of the need for a low-carbon transition healthy environment, so sustainable doing business requires priority option to reduce dependency on economic development is an research to assist in the transition to petroleum and coal as we approach overarching priority. There is thus a low-carbon economy by 2050 and that target, and thus assist the a dual emphasis on understanding to develop innovative, knowledge- Government to meet Paris Agreement climate change, its drivers, and its intensive technologies that could pledges. possible effects on New Zealand, disrupt existing industries or create and improving the quality of Our materials science research into new ones, leverage regional strengths New Zealand’s freshwater. These magnets and sensors, backed up by (both existing and potential), priorities are reflected strongly in investigation into domestic supply of and create resilience to natural the two themes within the Science strategic metals to support green- hazards. Our continued research for a Cleaner NZ CSA, in which we technologies, will provide niche to support renewable geothermal focus on developing understanding support for New Zealand’s emerging power generation and low-enthalpy and effective tools for air, land high-technology industries. But, for geothermal development is aimed and freshwater (groundwater) this economic transformation to be at driving New Zealand towards a management, and for adapting to possible, geohazard risk assessment zero-carbon, renewable energy- climate change impacts. and the development of mitigation based economy (the goal of ‘100% strategies, supported by rapid hazard renewable power generation by forecasting, is vital to protect our 2035’). assets.
OUR CONTRIBUTION TO GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES 15 SECTOR PRIORITIES
GNS Science’s dual geoscience and industrial research focus have led us to develop and maintain close relationships with a large number of end-user groups within diverse stakeholder sectors. Engagement has taken place through contracts, secondments, and joint projects, with many of our commercial clients also being the targeted end-users for our SSIF and contestable research programmes. This has ensured that we have a good understanding of their research strategies and needs. SCIENCE FOR A CLEANER NZ
Fresh water, clean air and Climate Change response stable historical period monitored sustainable environmental practice by instruments. Data gleaned from Much of the scientific advice are vital to our social, cultural and geological archives has, uniquely, currently offered on climate change is economic well-being (cf. SCP Output shown that mean sea level can vary underscored by numerical modelling, Statement 3; OS3). Those charged by more than a few metres and mean which seeks to quantify impacts with managing the quality of water surface temperature by as much based exclusively on historical and air—principally the regional as 6°C, in response to changes in and current instrumental records. councils, territorial authorities, atmospheric CO2 concentration. Our Such models fail to account for and Ministry for the Environment, internationally acclaimed paleoclimate the evidence contained in ice and MFE)—require high quality, research is, therefore, critical to sediment archives extending back independent analysis on which to refining and validating predictive into geological time. These offer the base their decisions. Climate change climate-change models, providing only avenue to observe and examine mitigation and adaptation have also essential observation-based data to Earth’s longer-term environmental become critically important global identify the types and scale of change and biological variability. They also and regional environmental issues, to which we will need to adapt in the allow us to determine the rate requiring sound strategy and policy future (see page 36). and magnitude of the change that development (cf. OS5). can occur beyond the relatively
16 SECTOR PRIORITIES Groundwater Management quantity, which relies on NGMP data. Air Quality Assessment There are about 200 mapped aquifers Regional councils seek advice and Urban air pollution is thought to in New Zealand. Groundwater reviews on the operation of their be responsible for about 1400 supplies 35% of the nation’s water regional groundwater monitoring premature deaths in New Zealand needs, supporting agriculture, city, networks, and changes in water and $5.5 billion in health costs and domestic supply and other chemistry related to land use. This and lost productivity, every year. uses, especially in dry periods. allows them to work out the most Reducing particulate matter levels in Regional authorities have a statutory effective management strategies the air will thus deliver major health responsibility to manage aquifers to ensure sustainability. There is an benefits for local communities as sustainably, and rely on the data identified need for information on well as the national economy, in and models provided though our the source, flow paths and transit terms of reduced respiratory disease. active monitoring networks and times of water and key contaminants Using ion beam technology (IBT), aquifer case studies. At the national through groundwater systems, and particles trapped on air filters can be scale, 110 groundwater sites are identification of recharge areas, flow chemically analysed, and the relative monitored quarterly as part of the paths, mixing of ground and surface contribution of different air-pollution National Groundwater Monitoring waters, seawater intrusion, and sources determined, including Programme (NGMP), with each aquifer structure. For this, we employ vehicle, domestic heating, and sample analysed for 25 parameters a range of chemical and isotopic industrial emissions, sea salt, and soil. for long-term trends in water tracing and dating techniques, Councils use the results to develop quality. The data provide a national in conjunction with numerical air-pollution mitigation measures baseline perspective on groundwater groundwater models. These tools and to track the effectiveness of quality that differentiates between and models also contribute directly these measures. IBT is also used to natural and human-induced change, to environmental management by, develop new materials and sensors, and feeds into models and tools for example, determining the sources which are sought by New Zealand’s used to improve New Zealand’s of nutrients that contribute to toxic manufacturing firms focused on freshwater management (the free algae growth in rivers, or variations environmental management (see also software for interpreting trends in in the geochemistry of soils, with page 38). groundwater quality is used in over their attendant health or agricultural 70 countries following its release implications (see also page 38). in 2007. MFE compiles a national report on groundwater quality and
SECTOR PRIORITIES 17 SCIENCE FOR A SAFER NZ
New Zealand’s location on an Hazard Resilience There is a need to reduce the active plate boundary means economic and social costs of natural New Zealand is one of many countries nature’s forces can change our hazards, through a robust evidence- that in 2016 signed up to a global world dramatically at any time. As base for determining priorities agreement on disaster risk reduction our population and cities grow, for action across the full range of that will guide actions to reduce risk we become more at risk. Major disaster-risk management options. from natural disasters through to geological hazard events have had, These will involve land-use planning, 2030. The Sendai Framework is a and continue to have, a significant engineering standards, emergency non-binding agreement with seven impact on New Zealand’s economy response planning, and risk transfer clear targets and four priorities for and social well-being. The total cost through insurance. Important action to prevent new, and reduce of the Canterbury earthquakes will research input will include improved existing, disaster risks. Science is likely exceed $40 billion (Treasury understanding of the processes embedded throughout the Framework estimate in 2018 dollars). After the that cause earthquakes, tsunami, and there is strong recognition of the Boxing Day and Japanese tsunami, volcanic eruptions, and landslides, and need for enhanced understanding of the Ministry of Civil Defence & estimation of the size, frequency and disaster risk and risk-informed decision Emergency Management (MCDEM) potential impacts of each of these making especially at government level. now rates tsunami alongside geological hazards. The Framework aims to achieve a earthquakes in the ‘potentially substantial reduction of disaster risk most dangerous’ category. Volcanic Hazard Monitoring and losses in lives, livelihoods, and eruptions are equally damaging, High demand from civil defence health and in the economic, physical, and the threat under our largest agencies, the commercial sector and social, cultural, and environmental urban area, Auckland, is significant. the public for the data it generates assets of persons, businesses, The frequent eruptions from amply demonstrates the important communities, and countries. The Tongariro are individually costly, role GeoNet plays in this country. key stakeholders charged with causing disruption to air transport, Over the past 17 years, GeoNet has delivering on the Sendai Framework— agriculture and forestry over a become a household name, and MCDEM, EQC, and regional CDEM wide area of central North Island. an international exemplar of how and lifelines groups—will require The threat of landslides is ever to monitor geological hazards and research information to inform the present across New Zealand, with provide timely information to the development of a national strategy for damage to roading, such as that people who need it. New Zealanders disaster risk reduction and resilience to which recently occurred along the can now see where an earthquake support the Government’s obligations. Manawatu Gorge and Kaikoura- occurs, and the magnitude of the The Ministerial Review on Better Blenheim highways, being time- shaking in their neighbourhood, Responses to Natural Disasters and consuming and very costly to repair. within seconds on their mobile Other Emergencies, released in January The more we learn about such devices. Continuing and increased 2018, has also signalled ways in which events, the better prepared we are support from its sponsor, EQC, science should be better integrated to deal with them (cf. OS2). as well as additional funding via into response and recovery planning, SSIF infrastructure for Enhanced Geohazards Monitoring, will ensure that GeoNet continues to improve its delivery and range of services (see also pages 30 and 42).
18 SECTOR PRIORITIES Understanding Earthquakes difference in terms of public safety. Understanding Mass As fresh information comes to hand Determining the rupture history Movement on the size, location, depth and style of earthquakes on important fault Unstable geological conditions, of an earthquake, the model can be systems such as the Alpine Fault heavy rain, earthquakes, and refined to give updated information (the South Island’s main source human-induced landscape changes on tsunami arrival times and likely of earthquake hazard) and the can trigger landslides. Expertise in effects. Given our long coastline Hikurangi subduction zone (the geomorphology and engineering and growth in coastal communities, North Island’s greatest risk), is geology enables strategies for increasing the sophistication of the key to understanding where reducing the impacts of slope failures such models becomes ever more and when future earthquakes will and landslides to be developed. As important. occur, and what their impacts are well, there is a need to identify and likely to be. Modelling the likelihood Understanding Volcanism quantify landslides and their triggers, of future seismic activity and the design safer slopes, assess risk, New Zealand has twelve volcanoes effects of ground shaking provides monitor unstable slopes, understand that are considered active, and important information for the landslide movement mechanisms, and they present a range of potential development of hazard mitigation consider social impacts. hazards. Taupo is the world’s most strategies. Earthquake engineering dangerous volcano in terms of the research feeds into structural design Hazard Loss Modelling size of its historical eruptions, so the standards, enabling infrastructure Loss modelling helps to quantify threat must be taken very seriously. to be built to withstand earthquake the impact of natural disasters There is permanent surveillance shaking for a given location, leading to on infrastructure and people, operating at the active volcanoes to a safer built environment and faster providing quantitative estimates detect early signs of volcanic unrest. recovery in the event of a natural of likely damage and loss of assets Research focused on sub-surface disaster, (see also page 44). and casualties, critical for risk processes and plumbing systems, management, hazard planning, and and the impacts of eruptions Tsunami Modelling insurance assessment. Disaster risk on infrastructure and people, is Propagation models showing how reduction and resilience can only be necessary for the development of tsunamis travel across the Pacific achieved through understanding eruption scenarios for emergency Ocean and impact on our coast how society interacts with natural management and risk assessment. help authorities to prepare coastal hazards and disasters. It is important communities. When a large sub- to understand what contributes seafloor earthquake occurs in the to effective land-use planning for Pacific the best-matching model natural hazards, how agencies and is quickly found to obtain a first the public understand and respond approximation of what the likely to threats, and the attributes of an impacts will be in New Zealand. This effective recovery (see also page 48). is communicated to the MCDEM and other agencies, as every minute of advance warning can make a
SECTOR PRIORITIES 19 SCIENCE FOR A MORE PROSPEROUS NZ
New Zealand is relatively well plants. Investigation of hotter and Currently, the New Zealand economy endowed with natural energy deeper geothermal sources, up to benefits significantly through and mineral resources, which 5 km deep, is the key to developing royalties and income tax from oil collectively are important more-sustainable resources for and gas production, oil exports. contributors to the wealth and the future. The abundance of high- Natural gas is an important peak-load energy security we expect as a temperature geothermal resources fuel (replacing coal) for electricity first-world nation. The knowledge in the central North Island means generation as we transition to a base and intellectual capacity geothermal is the lowest-cost low-carbon economy. In addition within the resource sector is critical electricity generation option to build to domestic residential supply, to support the goal, espoused in and operate. With well-targeted gas is used by Methanex NZ, as the New Zealand Energy Strategy research, geothermal energy is a chemical feedstock to produce 2011-2021, to grow our economy on course to help achieve the methanol, an increasingly important, to deliver greater prosperity, Government goal of 100% renewable clean transport fuel. Ballance security and opportunities for all electricity generation by 2035 (see Agri-nutrients also uses gas to New Zealanders (cf. OS1 and OS4). also page 52). manufacture ammonia and then urea for use domestically as farm Geothermal Energy Petroleum Resources fertiliser and feedstock. These, and Renewable geothermal energy is a In April 2018 the Government other commodities such as floating critical component of New Zealand’s announced that they would issue Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), are key electricity generating capacity at 16%; no more exploration ‘block offers’ export avenues for any significant behind hydro, and well ahead of wind. for petroleum in New Zealand’s future gas discovery. Geothermal energy is reliable, clean EEZ, confining new permits to and cost-effective and provides a onshore Taranaki. Although oil and Gas Hydrates consistent energy flow day and night, gas production is seen by many Gas hydrates (methane-rich icy in any season and in any weather. as a sunset industry, there is an deposits beneath the seafloor) off Research is essential to maintaining acknowledgement that the transition the North Island’s east coast, present the viability of the industry, and to 100% renewables would take some an unconventional energy resource increasing investor/developer decades, and that New Zealand’s for the country. New Zealand has confidence by reducing technical needs for natural gas, in particular, some of the most extensive and risks of exploration. Examples include would continue for some time. highly concentrated deposits of field and laboratory investigations Existing exploration and mining rights hydrates in the world, the nature of that shed light on rock permeability via 31 active permits (9 onshore and which is still being determined. If only and sub-surface fluid flow pathways, 22 offshore) would be honoured, a small fraction of the potentially making drilling targets more likely some relating to the 27 producing huge resource can be commercially to be successful, and finding new fields in Taranaki extend through to recovered, it would prove a major ways to modify the internal surfaces 2030. Thus, there remains a need for boost to our economy and energy of geothermal pipes to prevent the geoscientific research to support the security (see also page 54). build-up of minerals that reduces industry, for as long as it is active in operational efficiencies at power New Zealand.
20 SECTOR PRIORITIES Mineral Resources deposits, yet to be commercially supply, making a broad-based search Onshore mineral extraction is an extracted, include phosphorite and for domestic sources (including essential industry for New Zealand, iron sands, both of which are the mineralised fluids, landfills, mine providing aggregate for roads subject of current mining license dumps, and effluents) imperative. and construction, limestone for applications. Massive sulphides Isotope Labelling agriculture, and iron sands, clay, (metal-rich accumulations associated zeolite, gold and silver for internal use with sea-floor hydrothermal vents), Niche capability in isotope and and export. Combined, the production which occur along the chain of ion beam technologies (cf. OS4) value of mining and quarrying is more submarine volcanoes extending has the capacity to create value than $2 billion a year, generating 1500 km northeast from the Bay of for New Zealand industries. This substantial near-term impact to both Plenty, are seen as a new frontier includes building competitive export national and local economies through in mineral exploration. Since the commodities in the primary sector. royalties, taxes and jobs. As well as mid-1990s, these deposits have been An example is the use of isotope improving knowledge of the location systematically explored and mapped, methods to authenticate the source and quality of ‘industrial minerals’, with the research shedding light on of high-value food or beverage there is a need to better understand the processes of mineral deposit products such as mānuka honey and the geological processes that formation. This information is critical orange juice, to check they are ‘true to result in large, high-value precious for assessing economic potential, label’ and meet export criteria. metal deposits, and to use these in and making informed decisions on New Materials for Industry exploration. Digital map products whether a deposit could, or indeed remain important for promoting should, be harvested (see also page Ion beam techniques can also be knowledge and understanding of 56). used to develop new materials with characteristics such as increased mineral accumulations and their host Reflecting New Zealand’s drive hardness and wear resistance, regions. towards 100% renewable energy, hydrophobicity, or magnetic and ‘green’ technologies, increasing The realisation that New Zealand properties. The New Zealand emphasis is being placed on ’critical is the ‘above water’ component manufacturing sector makes use of metals’, such as copper, lithium, of the world’s eighth continent such new materials in, for example, tin, tungsten, vanadium, and rare Zealandia provides a fresh context for high-value products for harvesting earth elements. These are also understanding and researching into waste heat, improving the energy essential commodities for high- ore deposit formation and will play a efficiency of heating and cooling tech manufacturing. New Zealand key role in facilitating new important processes, and developing new currently imports over $200 million mineral discoveries. An understanding sensors and sensor systems (see also of such metals annually, a figure of deposit-forming processes within page 58). our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) that is expected to grow rapidly and extended continental shelf (ECS), as we drive towards a low-carbon underpins longer-term resource economy. Dwindling reserves globally, appraisal, and policy development for and political instability of the main low-footprint extraction. Seafloor producers, threatens security of
SECTOR PRIORITIES 21 NATIONAL SCIENCE CHALLENGES
Appreciating their important roles in underpinning the Government’s socio- environmental and economic agenda, we are a collaborating partner to seven of the eleven National Science Challenges. We host Resilience to Nature’s Challenges due to our wide knowledge of natural hazards and their societal risks and impacts. Our understanding of the soil-groundwater interface and past ecosystems are germane to Our Land & Water and New Zealand’s Biological Heritage; and our carbon- cycle research and analysis of past climate, benefits Deep South by enhancing predictive models of future climate.
Resilience Challenge Resilience to Nature’s Challenges, overarching mission of the Resilience Research, University of Waikato, Kia Manaweroa – Ngā Ākino o Te Ao Challenge is to: “Partner with Market Economics, and Resilient Tūroa (Resilience Challenge), was multiple stakeholders to generate Organisations. The science teams launched in June 2015, with research new co-created research solutions encompass a multi-disciplinary mix of programme aimed at improving New to inform how New Zealand builds physical science, Māori, engineering, Zealand’s preparation, response and a transformative pathway toward social science, economics, and adaptation to a range of geological natural hazard resilience”. business and enterprise. and weather hazards. Departing from The Resilience Challenge formal The Challenge received $19.6 million traditional single-risk models, the partnership involves six universities in Government funding for its first Resilience Challenge is focused on – Auckland, Canterbury, Lincoln, four years (supported by an additional building broad-spectrum resilience Massey, Otago, and Victoria – $0.6 million in co-funding), which it for our unique rural, urban and Māori three CRIs – GNS Science, NIWA, invested in developing new science- communities to multi-hazards, and Scion – and two research backed approaches to resilience, and including weather and rural fire associations – BRANZ and Opus. fast tracking their implementation. exacerbated by climate change. There The research is conducted by more This extends beyond defensive and is a special emphasis on extreme- than 80 scientists from these adaptive approaches to making risk communities at coastal margins and several other organisations, New Zealand a safer place to live and other vulnerable locations. The including Manaaki Whenua Landcare
22 NATIONAL SCIENCE CHALLENGES in and a more attractive, lower risk Resilience Toolbox’ programmes The Resilience Challenge is an investment opportunity. The research important vehicle for building the »» Resilient Governance: Addressing is headlined by four ‘Co-creation next generation of researchers in the role played by governance, Laboratory’ programmes, where natural hazard resilience, with over 20 policies, and institutional and end-users partner with researchers doctoral students included in its first societal relationships that underpin to devise resilience solutions in phase of operation. enduring community resilience. the Rural, Urban, Māori, and Edge As host of the Resilience Challenge, (Coastal) environments. Six ‘Resilience »» Infrastructure and Built- GNS Science has responsibility for Toolbox’ programmes are developing Environment Solutions: Developing providing financial management and resilience-specific technical solutions tools to assess the performance of infrastructure support is provided by to be applied across the highest- spatially-distributed infrastructure the Challenge office to deliver on the priority areas within the Co-creation networks subject to extreme Challenge mission against a series Laboratory programmes natural hazards. of outcome-based key performance Co-creation Laboratory programmes »» Creating an Economically Resilient indicators. Supported by a full New Zealand: Developing economic formal collaboration agreement »» Resilient Rural Backbone: decision support tools that enable among the eleven formal partners. Finding innovative solutions to New Zealanders to transition The challenge’s management team better protect vulnerable rural effectively and quickly to a more- is responsible for operations and communities, and enable them to resilient nation. supporting a governance group of thrive in the face of natural hazard experienced independent members risks. »» Cultural Resilience: Working to who drive the strategic direction. understand the social norms that »» Urban Resilience: Integrating and underpin a resilient culture in New Over the next two years the Resilience implementing tools that enable Zealand, harnessing and building Challenge scientists will continue our towns and cities to adapt and on them to improve our national to produce research results that transform with urban change, resilience. communities, organisations, and whilst building resilience to natural agencies can use in real time to hazards. »» Resilience to New Zealand’s Hazard improve New Zealand’s natural Spectrum: Generating a set of »» Better Understanding and hazard resilience. The research will fit-for-purpose hazard tools and Implementation of Mātauranga enable more-resilient design of New solutions for nationally consistent Māori and Tikanga to Build Zealand’s electricity, transport and delivery of risk information. Resilience: Integrating local, communications sectors. Agencies traditional, and iwi knowledge »» Resilience Trajectories for a Future responsible for these networks will with Te Reo and Māori values into Proof New Zealand: Harnessing be better able to collaborate and improved natural hazard resilience data to accelerate progress toward exchange information on resilience. strategies for all New Zealand the vision of a resilient New Zealand The Challenge will be able to measure communities. and to inform policy makers and some of the diverse capabilities of practitioners where to spend our a resilient community, helping New »» Living at the Edge - Transforming resilience ‘dollar’ most effectively. Zealand’s authorities and land-use the Margins: Finding support planners to implement strategies solutions for communities living in for adaptation to hazards in New highly-vulnerable, dynamic settings Zealand’s cities, coasts and farms. such as coastal margins and flood plains. The Resilience Challenge, and its stakeholders, are now planning the next five-year phase of operation across resilience themes of critical importance to New Zealand.
NATIONAL SCIENCE CHALLENGES 23 NATURAL HAZARDS RESEARCH PLATFORM
GNS Science is host of the Natural Hazards Research Platform, a consortium of Government-funded science providers dedicated to increasing New Zealand’s resilience to natural hazards. Established in 2009, the Platform brings together integrated hazard and risk expertise from GNS Science, NIWA, University of Canterbury, University of Auckland, Massey University, and Opus. Several other universities, consultancies, and international partners are also involved as subcontractors or through aligned research programmes. The aim of the Platform is to contribute directly to improved economic, infrastructural and societal resilience to natural hazards in New Zealand, through research that aligns with the strategies of Government agencies responsible for reduction, readiness, response and recovery. The Platform is charged with providing the best scientific advice possible in the national interest. Following the Canterbury earthquake sequence and the Kaikoura earthquake, the Government provided additional funding to support high need, short-term research that informed decision- making during critical periods.
24 NATURAL HAZARDS RESEARCH PLATFORM The programmes of research are In addition, the Platform has »» Too big to fail? —A multi- underpinned by aligned SSIF at GNS 11 projects under contract via disciplinary approach to predict Science and NIWA, and by six long- its contestable process (2017- collapse and debris flow hazards term (2015-19) research programmes 19), covering a range of hazard, from Mt Ruapehu (Massey led by the non-CRI Partners, covering engineering, and economics University). a range of hazard and engineering topics. These projects and the lead »» Towards robust decision-making in topics. These projects and the lead organisations are: natural hazard risk management: organisations are: »» Pre-historic earthquakes on Uncertainty quantification for »» Climate change impacts on Kaikoura’s earthquake faults and RiskScape-MERIT modelling (Market weather-related hazards (University implications for seismic hazard Economics). of Auckland). (GNS Science). »» Indicators of vulnerable »» Tools and knowledge to improve »» Paleo-coastal uplift along the populations to natural hazards—A New Zealand’s long-term resilience Kaikoura coastline—Detecting case study of flooding in the to wind storms (Opus). multi-fault rupture and implications Porirua City Council area (Massey for the southern Hikurangi margin University). »» Volcanic risk: from hazards to (GNS Science). impacts (Massey University). »» Enhanced probabilistic flood »» Stability of buckling-restrained forecasting using optimally »» Building quake and people: braced frame (BRBF) connections designed numerical weather a serious game platform for using a simplified notional load prediction ensembles (NIWA). informing life-saving strategies yield line method (University of (University of Auckland; completed »» Improving the seismic performance Auckland). in October 2017). of glazing and windows (University »» Adaptive and interactive of Canterbury). »» Research-informed advancements futures—A ‘serious game’ for in guidelines and standards of »» Quicker and safer tsunami decision-making and coastal engineering practice for natural evacuations through agent-based hazards (NIWA). hazards (University of Canterbury). modelling (GNS Science). »» Improved medium-term earthquake »» Building to recover: quantifying The Platform is set to merge with the forecasting (GNS Science). and predicting the role of the built Resilience Challenge; in 2018, a series environment in social and economic of workshops with researchers and recovery (Opus). stakeholders will be held to plan the new research programme, which will be initiated in late 2019.
NATURAL HAZARDS RESEARCH PLATFORM 25 IMPLEMENTING VISION MĀTAURANGA
GNS Science is committed to developing partnerships with Māori to identify iwi aspirations, and to undertake joint research projects to realise those aspirations.
The GNS Science Māori Strategy, Te »» being more visible to Māori, with We are placing an increasing emphasis Rautaki, was launched in September Māori knowing who we are and on Whakapakari tangata (staff 2016, and has been successful in what we do and by promoting development), providing in-house forging new relationships with research and GNS Science capability courses in Te Reo, Treaty awareness, Māori researchers, organisations, within Māori communities; Māori pronunciation, marae protocol, individuals, iwi, and businesses. Te and waiata training. This has been »» strengthening our people Rautaki’s vision is to ‘Create mutual extended to the Board of Directors (Whakapakari tāngata) and value by unlocking the potential of and the Executive, as well as research knowledge of Te Ao Māori and GNS Science-Māori relationships’, and support staff who engage which is as much about unlocking our »» ensuring that the R & D GNS regularly with Māori. GNS Science has own potential as it is about deepening Science is involved with are made a commitment to allocate SSIF our existing relationships with Māori. available to support Māori specifically to better support Māori development and resilience. engagement, Vision Mātauranga, and We will achieve this vision by: relationship management with Māori. Te Rautaki is forward looking and »» mana enhancing relationships aligns with Vision Mātauranga, the Building on the success of our Te and the reciprocal sharing of National Science Challenges, He Kai Kura Whenua initiative with Ngāti information (Manākitanga); Kei Aku Ringa, iwi research planning Kahungunu Iwi Incorporated (2014-17), »» strengthening our internal documents, and GNS Science we plan to organise more marae- processes (Tikanga) and policies strategy. Our staff work closely with and field-based wānanga to help to improve our service delivery, Māori trusts, iwi, and businesses bridge the gap between science and research, responsiveness to Māori, to help address Māori needs and Mātauranga Māori, and to foster and legal responsibilities and aspirations, test innovation and dialogue on important geoscience obligations; to develop research that has real issues such as climate change, hazard impact on Māori aspirations by jointly resilience and resource management. developing our research projects with Māori.
26 TE WHAKATINANATANGA O TE TIROHANGA MĀTAURANGA Four MBIE-funded Vision Mātauranga Capability Fund projects are demonstrating effective research partnerships with iwi, and possible pathways to enduring scientific engagement. Te haurehu waikawa pungatara e pa ana te kaimahi Māori – Impact of hydrogen sulphide on the Māori workforce
GNS Science and Whakarewarewa The research team contains experts The research has two mutual benefits: Village Charitable Trust are working who share an interest in exploring 1. to improve Māori understanding together to demonstrate a framework synergies between these two of the science of hydrogen sulphide for integrating related scientific data knowledge systems. Whakarewarewa, and the possible risk to human health and Mātauranga-a-iwi (traditional The Living Māori Village, provides when exposed to high concentrations knowledge of the tribe and its land guides and other staff for tourism of it, and 2. corroboration of historical base) to better understand hydrogen businesses, and this project targets and current events concerning sulphide behaviour surrounding the improvements in the workforce to hydrogen sulphide and its possible Whakarewarewa Village, and the realise opportunities in growing the health effects. Data from the world- possible impact on human health. business and ensuring the health of first fine and coarse air particulate the Māori workforce. matter database from the sampling campaign from November 2014 to June 2017 at Whakarewarewa Village will be integrated into the research.
TE WHAKATINANATANGA O TE TIROHANGA MĀTAURANGA 27 Incorporating environmental and indigenous knowledge for future management of freshwater resources in the Piako Catchment
We are working with Ngāti Hauā resources in the Piako Catchment, from iwi members through hands- Iwi Trust to improve the health Ngāti Hauā will acquire the knowledge on engagement at their marae. and vitality of the Piako River, to to make informed decisions regarding Collectively, the information resource ensure the mauri of the waterways future management of water will allow for Ngāti Hauā to store is sustained for future generations resources, both for the health of information, assess changes in through a merger of scientific the environment and for the iwi. water resources over time, and have knowledge with Mātauranga Māori Scientific, Mātauranga, and policy information on-hand for improved (indigenous knowledge), Mātauranga- information is being collected, and decision making. The project is ā-iwi, and cultural values. By gaining stored on an interactive user portal supported by Waikato Regional a clearer picture of the current (website). Additional knowledge and Council. knowledge around freshwater perspectives are being gathered
Kaitiaki flows and baseflow-dominated stream systems
The increasing role of iwi in management because it is being organisations are joint holders of the environmental management, developed by iwi to meet iwi criteria, consent and the renewal will govern associated with treaty settlements including the amenity of spring-fed water management in the area for and newly-legislated co-management baseflow-dominated streams, and many years to come. The project is arrangements, requires iwi to groundwater resource sustainability also developing a water resources develop skills in water resource of the spring catchments. Kaitiaki capability plan for Ngāti Rangiwewehi, management. In partnership with flows are being considered by Ngāti outlining their aims and tasks over Ngāti Rangiwewehi, we are setting Rangiwewehi and the Rotorua the next 20 years in terms of staff out to identify kaitiaki flow regimes Lakes Council with regard to an capability, training requirements, and for Awahou Stream using a mixture up-coming consent renewal for strategic projects at local, catchment of science and wananga. This is municipal drinking water supply and regional scales. a new concept to water resource from Awahou Stream. These two
28 IMPLEMENTING VISION MĀTAURANGA Hei koha tū hei kura huna a papa A resource characterisation and ancestry of minerals for Ngāti Hako
In partnership with Ngāti Hako, resource potential now recognised of the needs of modern society in web are integrating scientific data as vital for a modern society. The developing a pathway to realise and Mātauranga-a-iwi to attain a collaboration is providing Ngāti Hako and unlock mineral potential as well better understanding of the mineral with an understanding of the geology as economic opportunities. The resources within the Ngāti Hako rohe of the Hauraki Region that has shaped findings are providing a balance (region). The research interweaves the land and resulted in the formation between mineral development and oral histories, for example ngā of different minerals resources. The environmental protection with mōteatea (songs) of past traditional project brings together portions of Ngāti Hako as kaitiaki (guardians to mineral resource use, with the mineral Mātauranga Māori, with a recognition maintain, protect and enhance). A Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden-funded project is helping to reconnect taonga (treasures) with their Māori owners. Track the Black – the whakapapa of paru
Intricately woven kakahu (Māori and Te Papa staff are revealing and significance, curation and location. A cloaks) are extant exemplars restoring human-environmental database of diagnostic geochemical showcasing traditional black iron- linkages and whakapapa (historical properties of paru from sites across tannate dyes derived from iron-rich relationships) to ‘disconnected’ New Zealand is being created, and paru (muds) that were applied to paru-dyed taonga held in museums geochemical correlations between New Zealand flax fibre (muka) during and private collections. Reconnection individual paru pits and heritage the manufacturing process. Paru- methods include a strong component textiles revealed. This is allowing dye residues are essentially the only of Mātauranga Maori. This is being reconnection of unprovenanced physical remnant left that could track gained through knowledge sharing taonga back to iwi, empowering iwi to unprovenanced heritage objects or and semi-structured interviews protect, restore and acknowledge the textiles to their origins. By coupling with key community and iwi (tribe) cultural importance of paru for the indigenous studies and modern knowledge holders around traditional provision of black dye in the marae forensic techniques, GNS Science paru use to reveal their past setting.
IMPLEMENTING VISION MĀTAURANGA 29 OPERATIONAL INITIATIVES
Our review of executive and corporate functions carried out in early-mid 2018 was aimed at ensuring that GNS Science has the capability and capacity to support its science teams in the future, so positioning it better to achieve its vision.
Creating the future—our Enhancing external relations people and collaboration Our organisational culture and »» Investing in improving our health, By creating value through close capabilities underpin our ability to safety, and wellbeing culture engagement, and linking our business deliver on our strategic direction. through increased communication, with our stakeholders, we should The changes outlined herein call for education and participation; see increased revenue and profits a workplace culture that is smart, from research, commercial and »» Developing cultural capability to strategic and responsive. We want commercialisation activities, and meet our commitments under all New Zealanders to recognise the greater awareness and appreciation Vision Mātauranga and enhancing value we bring both domestically and of our science by all New Zealanders. our partnerships with Māori; globally, and to do this we need an We will incorporate more outreach organisation with outstanding people »» Updating our internal systems and activities into our research, building and effective systems and processes. processes to ensure they are fit for on our success with MBIE-funded purpose, flexible, and responsive to Unlocking Curious Minds projects. Our focus will be on: our needs; and Positive outcomes include being »» Ensuring we have the structure, widely respected by stakeholders as »» Implementing key capability, and capacity to create a trusted advisor and the first port recommendations and priority globally influential science; of call for solving their problems, outcomes from our Pay and and being regarded as an innovative »» Strengthening leadership, direction, Employment Equity Review (PEER) company. and delivery through changes to project, in partnership with the the way we operate; PSA, to resolve gender pay gaps. EQC has committed to ongoing support of GeoNet, with funding »» Initiating a significant culture increasing from $12.7 million in 2018-19 change programme redefining who to $13.2 million in 2020–21, enabling we are, how we behave and the way us to enhance our stewardship of the we work, linked to our strategic project. We will use the additional review; investment to continue to move
30 ORGANISATIONAL INITIATIVES GeoNet forward by streamlining our Maintaining research In 2018-19 we will be developing current operations and updating funding a business case for an Electronic our monitoring network. Work has We will maintain research funding at Content Management System (ECMS) started on our longer-term goal to a level that fully supports our SCP. We to improve our level of document accurately and automatically detect will continue to make effective use of control and external collaboration eruptions at New Zealand’s most SSIF and contestable funding, aligned ability, and utilising a technology active volcanoes (see page 42). This with commercial funding, to address roadmap to guide our IT hardware and includes development of forecasting issues of national importance. By service procurement decisions. This tools that will assist decision-making streamlining our project management will enable us to achieve improved once an eruptive sequence is under and reporting systems for greater scalability, efficiency, and availability way. The establishment of a 24/7 efficiency, we will ensure a robust and of information services in the medium geological hazard monitoring centre enduring skill-base to underpin our to long term. for New Zealand will have the benefit commercial capability. A stage-gate We will also be refreshing our of reducing the time taken to provide process, linked to strategic drivers Information Services Strategic Plan critical information to stakeholders will further improve bid quality and to support the Strategic Review on natural hazard events (see also reduce administration costs. outcomes, and establishing a new page 2 and 7). roadmap of projects to support its Enhancing information Through participation in Centres of delivery. Our principles in developing services Research Excellence (‘MacDiarmid this roadmap are: Institute’, and ‘QuakeCore’), University The business of GNS Science is data ÎÎ Big Data and analytics are key of Auckland’s Product Accelerator, driven and our goal is to improve drivers of future science and and the National Science Challenges operational practices to increase technology advances; (see page 22), we will make further efficiency and data management progress in removing barriers to maturity, through high-performance, ÎÎ services are digital by default; science and technology partnerships. robust systems that are usable, connected and interoperable to ÎÎ information is managed as an well-targeted and managed dataset asset; collection and use. ÎÎ investment and capability are shared; and ÎÎ improved systems assurance.
ORGANISATIONAL INITIATIVES 31 OUR RESEARCH
Over the next five years, we will undertake wide ranging research designed to deliver on our vision. This will be suppported by a variety of revenue sources: SSIF–Research Programmes, Nationally Significant Databases and Collections, and Enhanced Geohazard Monitoring (EGM); external contestable (MBIE-administered Endeavour, Vision Mātauranga, National Hazard Research Platform (NHRP), National Science Challenges (NSC), Catalyst, and Unlocking Curious Minds funds; RSNZ-administered Marsden, and Catalyst funds; EQC Biennial Fund; Centres of Research Excellence (MacDiarmid Institute and QuakeCore funds; EQC funding of GeoNet; and commercial service and consultancy.
GNS Science R&D Investment (2018-19)
$45m- SSIF: Research $40m- SSIF: NSC-aligned $35m- SSIF: Strategic $30m- SSIF: NSDC $25m- MBIE Contestable $20m- RSNZ Contestable
$15m- NSC Contestable Other Contestable $10m- EQC Geonet + EGM $5m- Commercial $0m- Generate new Develop Leverage ideas emerging ideas proven ideas
Basic (‘generate new ideas’) research manufacturing (43%). In combination, Payments and Resilience Challenge in regional geology, tectonics, these generate the capability and funds—is made up of 31% SSIF, 24% biostratigraphy and materials science understandings to undertake contestable, 22.5% EQC GeoNet + (13%), provides the fundamental effective problem solving (‘leverage EGM, and 22.5% commercial. understandings for more applied proven ideas’) (44%). The investment is deployed across (‘develop emerging ideas’) Our total R&D investment of $88.6 four Core Science Areas and 12 research in environmental science, million—based on the 2018-19 underlying Research Themes. economic geology, and high-value budget forecast less NHRP Partner
32 OUR RESEARCH SCIENCE FOR A CLEANER NZ UNDERPINNING GEOSCIENCE KNOWLEDGE PAST, PRESENT & GEOSCIENCE FUTURE CLIMATES INFORMATION AIR, WATER & LAND ZEALANDIA 4% REVEALED 3% 12% 9% NEW MATERIALS & PROCESSES 16% 4% 13% MINERAL RESOURCES 2% HAZARD 24% MONITORING PETROLEUM 9% 24% RESOURCES 48%
8% RENEWABLE GEOTHERMAL 8% 12% ENERGY 4% UNDERSTANDING HAZARDS SCIENCE SOCIETAL & FOR A MORE ECONOMIC ASSESSING RISK SCIENCE FOR A PROSPEROUS NZ RESILIENCE SAFER NZ
Translating the Themes (outer ring, above) to the In the detailed explanation of our research that follows appropriate SCP Outcome Statements (see pages 12 & (see pages 34-65), we address four questions in relation to 13) reveals that the greatest amount of effort (58%) is the science outlook associated with each of the 12 Themes: directed towards OS2—natural hazard risk and resilience. »» What are our research aims over the next 1-5 years? OS1—wealth from resources (21%), and OS5—geology and past climates (11%), OS3—groundwater quality (4%); »» Who are the key end-users we are targeting to take up OS4—nuclear & isotope applications (5%), and OS6— our research results and put them to good use? enhanced geotechnical engineering (1%) make up the »» What impacts, and ultimate benefits, do we expect to remainder. achieve?
»» How will we measure success?
OUR RESEARCH 33 SCIENCE FOR A CLEANER NZ
Our role is to enhance the In partnership with central research to ‘generate new ideas’ nation’s ability to understand and government, regional authorities, iwi, relates to obtaining a better responsibly manage changes in industry, universities, and the public. understanding of the drivers and climate, sea level, air and water Improving the accuracy, reliability, impacts of climate change through quality, and land use. and coverage of paleo-environment paleoclimate and carbon-cycle Our research findings contribute to proxies, and environmental research, and sub-crustal fluid flow improved environmental assessment monitoring networks will provide into and out of aquifers. Commercial by developing better networks for stakeholders with authoritative, projects, which mainly ‘leverage real-time monitoring, and effective unbiased data and advice to support proven ideas’ provide practical mechanisms for dissemination the development of informed support to the land and water to, and engagement with, the policies, plans and strategies for sectors for improved environmental public, iwi, and other stakeholders. climate-change and environmental management. management. The desired outcome for New Increasing demand for groundwater Zealand is effective kaitiakitanga The 2018–19 investment of $13.8 consultancy services has seen the (environmental stewardship), million is made up of 30% SSIF, 37% horizon profile skew slightly towards leading to social, cultural, health contestable, and 33% commercial. ‘leverage proven ideas’, relative to the and economic benefits. To achieve 24% supports the Past, Present and 2016-17 profile; the strategic move to this, we investigate ancient and Future Climates Theme, and supports invest more SSIF into groundwater modern environmental systems and 76% Air, Water & Land. systems modelling capability, leading processes, and determine the impacts to the creation of a ‘hydrological Research to ‘develop emerging ideas’ of human activity and changing QMap of New Zealand’, will see the involves physical and geochemical climate, empowering environmental profile shift back over the next two characterisation of our air, land, stewardshop. years more towards ‘generate new and water environments; whereas ideas’.
34 OUR RESEARCH Science for a Cleaner NZ (2018-19 Investment)
$8m-
SSIF: Research $6m- SSIF: NSC-aligned SSIF: Strategic
$4m- MBIE Contestable RSNZ Contestable NSC Contestable $2m- Other Contestable Commercial
$0m- Generate new Develop Leverage ideas emerging ideas proven ideas
OUR RESEARCH 35 PAST, PRESENT & FUTURE CLIMATES
Science outlook Our research on past climate and For example, leadership of the multi- to sea level rise (see page 3, ‘Our rising environments is essential for national Roosevelt Island Climate tides’), and informing longer-term improving predictions of the rate, Evolution (RICE) project (2013-16) has (centuries to millennia) adaptation scale, and magnitude of future allowed us to take the lead on the and mitigation strategies. We seek climate change and assessing the planning of the international Thwaites paleo-environmental evidence that likely impacts of these changes on Glacier ice-core drilling project in West extends the understanding of Earth- New Zealand and New Zealanders Antarctica. This highly-leveraged system behaviour beyond the short (see page 16). Knowledge of past international research project aims to instrumental record, to times of environmental change is also key determine the stability of the West global temperature and atmospheric to understanding the evolution of Antarctic Ice Sheet in a warming carbon dioxide concentrations Zealandia, the origins of its biota and world, and improve estimates of its relevant to those projected for the the nature and distribution of its contributions to future sea-level next several decades. This is essential geological resources. rise. Thus supports New Zealand’s to any assessment of the impacts efforts to be a good global citizen of climate change on New Zealand’s In collaboration with Victoria, in understanding and mitigating environment, society, and prosperity. Canterbury, and Otago universities, the impacts of climate change and A quantitative understanding of the and NIWA, we will continue to resultant environmental degradation. source and fate of key greenhouse contribute to international efforts to gases is also critical to this Our focus on previous episodes of understand how climate has changed assessment (see page 2, ‘Auckland’s major climate shifts and intervals of in the past and how these changes carbon emissions’). have affected the wider SW Pacific warmer-than-present climate is aimed region, from Antarctica to the tropics. at quantifying ice-sheet contribution
Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Advance understanding of the »» identifying the global causes Paleoclimate-validated predictive regional impacts of global change and regional consequences for models and associated climate- at a range of spatial and temporal biological and physical systems impact scenarios, documented in scales, by: of extremely warm, high-CO2 peer-reviewed high-impact scientific climatic events in the geologic papers, provide important input »» refining and developing isotopic past. into the globally-reported findings methods for dating climate of the IPCC (International Panel archives and deriving climate »» Determine the effects of climate on Climate Change), WEF (World proxies; warming on Antarctica’s ice sheets, Economic Forum), and WMO (World simulating responses using models »» using radiocarbon to determine Meteorological Organisation). These validated with prehistoric data to the responses and dynamics of organisations inform the Government improve sea-level rise projections. carbon stocks and flows in the through the Climate Change Minister, biosphere, atmosphere, and »» Determine how the Southern via regulators, strategists, and policy ocean system relevant to New Ocean carbon sink is evolving developers in government ministries, Zealand; in response to climate change such as DOC (Conservation), MFE »» using ice and sediment cores using atmospheric radiocarbon (Environment), MFAT (Foreign Affairs to construct high-resolution measurements. and Trade), MOH (Health), and MPI climate records for the past (Primary Industries), regional councils »» Determine the seasonality of 150,000 years, to reduce and territorial authorities. Iwi/ Southern Ocean dynamics from Southern Hemisphere climate Māori, for whom kaitiakitanga spans Antarctic radiocarbon observations model uncertainties; multiple generations into the future, to improve the predictive capability and who therefore have a long- »» refining future sea level of the New Zealand Earth System term perspective on environmental projections for New Zealand and Model being constructed by the management, take a keen interest modelling local impacts; Deep South NSC. in the information gleaned from »» using marine records to »» Devise probabilistic sea-level geological archives. In developing recognise the main drivers, rise scenarios for New Zealand’s ever more-sophisticated and robust mechanism, and patterns of coastline, and co-design impact models, an effective interface with climate change in the SW Pacific, assessment/risk programmes with other researchers becomes a key with an emphasis on ‘warmer local authorities, communities, and element in the science value chain. world’ intervals; and iwi/hapū.
36 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
By June 2020, carbon source 1. Towards a low-carbon economy and sink data is included in New New highly-resolved environmental data have been Zealand emissions reporting in used to improve forecasts of climate and biological relation to the Paris Agreement, change for New Zealand, and pathways identified and used to inform international to a low-carbon economy that will support New advisory bodies such as IPCC, Zealand’s international commitments. WEF, and WMO.
By June 2023, GNS scientists have been engaged in the production of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report, providing key paleoclimate information from the SW Pacific, Antarctica and New Zealand, published in high-impact international journals.
OUR RESEARCH 37 AIR, WATER & LAND
Science outlook Our wide-ranging groundwater- contaminant transfers between air, We also make a contribution to the related research helps to address the land, and water and the resulting increasingly damaging problem of air ‘supply of fresh water’ issue (see page environmental impacts. We see pollution in New Zealand (see page 17), 17), which is the major environmental environmental stewardship as a by applying our customised ion beam and resource issue internationally. collective responsibility. Enhanced technology to determining the origins Specifically, we address the need engagement and knowledge exchange of particulate matter, and by creating to fully understand the structural mechanisms that give the public smart environmental sensors. characteristics of, and the fluxes of and Iwi/Māori a more-active role For example, joint research with water into, out of, and through New (see page 28) will increase public Whakarewarewa Village Charitable Zealand aquifers, and improve our awareness of environmental risks Trust (see page 27) is developing ability to predict the response of and help to provide tools for decision strategies that makes their people New Zealand aquifers to pressures makers to address multi-faceted more resilient to their environment, such as climate change and land- issues (see page 3, ‘Protecting our allowing them to derive even greater use intensification. There is also a groundwater’). benefit from the natural assets of need to improve understanding of their rohe.
Research aims »» Provide new knowledge on »» In partnership with industry and »» In partnership with the physical and chemical government develop environmental Whakarewarewa Trust, integrate characteristics and responses isotopes as a traceability tool to environmental data and of New Zealand’s land and water support product authentication Mātauranga-a-iwi to determine the systems and their response to and Country of Origin Labelling impact of hydrogen sulphide on future pressures, by: (CoOL), and as a biosecurity and local Māori communities. forensic tool to protect New »» determining the hydrogeological »» In partnership with Ngāti Hauā Zealand’s unique flora and fauna. and structural characteristics of Iwi Trust, integrate environmental our aquifer systems; »» Develop and validate an improved data and Mātauranga-a-iwi for »» developing fit-for-purpose method for quantifying the extent water management in the Piako chemical and isotopic tools for of denitrification in groundwater Catchment. determining the dynamics of systems, based on the »» In partnership with Ngāti hydrologic systems; measurement of excess nitrogen. Rangiwewehi, identify kaitiaki flow »» applying tracers for »» In collaboration with NIWA and regimes for Awahou Stream using biogeochemical processes that ESR, develop, test and validate science and wananga. define the source, fate, and methods for simplifying large-scale »» Develop new knowledge on outdoor transport of nitrogen, carbon, groundwater models so that they and indoor air quality via source and other pollutants; and can run quickly without introducing apportionment of air particulate »» determining how human biases or inaccuracies. matter, and sensor development. activities and climate change »» In collaboration with Cawthron, affect our groundwater »» In collaboration with Te Papa, Matana, Victoria University and resources, identify the unique geochemical University of Otago, obtain a fingerprints of paru from different nation-wide overview of the locations used by Māori to dye health of our lakes using paleo- flax fibre for weaving, and so environmental reconstructions, to allow unprovenanced taonga to enable prioritisation for protection be reconnected with their original and achievable restoration owners.
38 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
2. Improved water management By June 2020, isotope tracer-based information, Tracer-validated numerical models and ‘smart’ and simplified, reliable tools for accurate, rapid and cost-effective and integrated (‘SMART’) characterisation, mapping, and modelling of key groundwater-surface water aquifers have led to a better understanding of models are being used by aquifer systems and a demonstrable improvement industry and government in the management of groundwater and agencies to inform policy and interconnected surface-water systems. management decisions affecting and water resources and biological products.
3. More-realistic air quality regulations By June 2022, air particulate A better understanding of the drivers of air quality source apportionment data in New Zealand in relation to particulate matter has is being used for setting new resulted in more-realistic pollution thresholds and air-quality standards in New regulations, leading to improved community health. Zealand and, through to the IAEA-sponsored international air pollution programme, to set new air quality standards overseas.
By June 2023, regional councils have revised monitoring strategies for lakes within their catchments, and are amending Uptake and implementation plans to set and manage limits more effectively. The is a strong appetite amongst water regulators for 3D aquifer models and associated water-quality data, to inform water management strategies, policies, and regulations. The principal users of groundwater information, which is transferred mainly in the form of high-quality data sets, technical reports, and peer- reviewed scientific papers, are regional councils and territorial authorities, DOC, MFE, MOH, and MPI. The NAQWG (National Air Quality Working Group) use air pollution data to revise air quality standards, and NZTE (NZ Trade and Enterprise) factor food authentication research into their regulatory and marketing strategies. The IAEA-RCA (International Atomic Energy Agency Regional Cooperative Agreement), through MFAT, broker multi-country hydrological research initiatives around the Pacific Rim and SE Asia. Forestry, horticulture, farming, and viticulture industries, community groups, iwi/Māori (e.g. Whakarewarewa Trust, Ngāti Hauā Iwi Trust, and Ngāti Rangiwewehi), and others with a vested interest in water quality and/or supply (e.g., utility providers), are also key users of groundwater data and models.
OUR RESEARCH 39 SCIENCE FOR A SAFER NZ
As the lead institute in New Zealand users, and communities in national Research to ‘leverage proven ideas’, for geological hazard research, and international programmes for relates mainly to the delivery of our role is to develop and support disaster risk reduction, to develop immediate geohazard advice to key the nation’s ability to understand, safeguards from the impact of natural stakeholders via GeoNet, EGM, and communicate and mitigate the hazard events. And we will provide geohazard consultancy services; impacts of earthquakes, tsunamis, authoritative and independent research to ‘developing emerging volcanic eruptions, and landslides, information and advice to support ideas’ relates to acquiring a better and its ability to become more risk mitigation, community resilience, understanding of geological hazard, resilient to these hazards. and informed decision-making in risk assessment, and societal The desired outcomes for New response to, and in preparation for, and economic resilience; whereas Zealand are reduced economic, natural hazard events. research to ‘generate new ideas’ is focused on acquiring a fundamental environmental, and social impacts Nearly half (47%) of the 2018-19 understanding of geohazards, their of natural hazards on communities investment of $42.5 million comes triggers and predictability. and infrastructure, and, ultimately, from EQC support for GeoNet plus improved national wellbeing. To MBIE support for EGM; the remainder The strategic move to invest more achieve this, we will undertake is from SSIF (21%), contestable (15%) SSIF into refining and enhancing research to better understand natural and commercial (17%) sources. 49% the National Hazard Model has hazards and community exposure, supports the Hazard Monitoring significantly increased the investment and support risk mitigation and Theme, 25% Understanding Hazards, in ‘generate new ideas’, relative to the community resilience. We will partner 8% Assessing Risk, and 18% Societal 2016-17 profile. with other researcher providers, end- and Economic Resilience.
40 OUR RESEARCH Science for a Safer NZ (2018-19 Investment)
$24m-
$20m- SSIF: Research SSIF: NSC-aligned $16m- SSIF: Strategic MBIE Contestable $12m- RSNZ Contestable $8m- NSC contestable Other Contestable $4m- EQC Geonet + EGM Commercial $0m- Generate new Develop Leverage ideas emerging ideas proven ideas
OUR RESEARCH 41 HAZARD MONITORING
Science outlook GeoNet, the geohazard monitoring GeoNet’s existing infrastructure, Enhanced Geohazard Monitoring system we operate, has a pivotal role operations and services. GeoNet is (EGM) project, funded by MBIE, will in supporting natural hazard research well-equipped to deliver leading- implement 24/7 awake geohazard in all its forms. GeoNet services edge hazards information to all monitoring services, concentrating include the collection and publication New Zealanders, when and where initially on tsunami and large of geological data from the GeoNet they want it. earthquakes, but with the intention sensor network, and maintenance of to cover all perils by 2021. The There is an ever-pressing need to an on-call duty system to monitor, ultimate goal is to provide enhanced provide better real-time forecasts detect and assess geohazard threats communication of hazard and risk for all four geological perils and their related to earthquakes, tsunami, through multiple channels, and impacts, so the public can be better volcanic eruptions, and landslides. The comprehensive response planning for prepared for impending events, GeoNet Sustain project (the national all future events in New Zealand. and know how to respond when geodetic framework and tsunami adverse events happen (see page 2, gauge network), funded by EQC ‘GeoNet enhancements’). The GeoNet and LINZ, maintains and reinforces
Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Improve the scope and value of the Because GeoNet provides real-time GeoNet service, by: data on earthquake, volcanic eruption, »» providing 24/7 awake and tsunami events, its user base monitoring, initially for tsunami includes all sectors of society. Primary and large earthquakes, then delivery of hazard information is for volcanic eruptions and to key Government ministries and landslides; agencies, namely MCDEM, MBIE, DOC, »» developing systems to provide EQC, lifelines groups, LINZ, regional fast and effective advice councils and territorial authorities, for local-source tsunami and regional CDEM groups. The warning, while supporting the information is used to inform ‘long, strong–get gone’ self- strategies around advice to the public, evacuation message; and longer-term policy development. GeoNet also interfaces with the public »» providing better access to data via the media, and makes available and information for researchers information on the severity and and other users; characteristics of events (accessing »» improving the speed of citizen-science data) to interested detecting and assessing parties via its website. geological hazard threats in New Zealand; »» progressively improving the certainty and accuracy of our advice to responsible agencies about hazard threats; and »» progressively moving to impact forecasting for all perils to provide improved information for decision makers.
42 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
4. Effective response to hazard events By June 2019, GeoNet has a 24/7 awake monitoring service GeoNet real-time data on the location and size of in place, including enhanced hazard events, and forecast impact scenarios, has capability to respond to local- been taken up by government agencies, the media source tsunamis. and the public, and used to facilitate effective response procedures, and planning for future events. By June 2021, the speed of detecting and assessing geohazard threats in New Zealand has improved by 50%. 5. Timely response to hazard events Early warning or forecasting capability for all perils has been established and utilised, leading to more- timely decision making by CDEM and other response By June 2023, GeoNet is providing impact forecasting groups and planners, lessening the impacts of for some geohazard threats, hazard events on people and infrastructure. further enhancing the quality of advice to decision makers.
OUR RESEARCH 43 UNDERSTANDING HAZARDS
Science Outlook Critical to a resilient society is the hazards they pose to society, as the ensuring that New Zealand is well ability to understand and mitigate first step to quantifying risk. Through positioned as an international hazards the risk from the range of potential discovering new insights into when, laboratory, and there is integrated geohazards we subject to. Thus, we where, why, and how an earthquake research leading to comparative look to provide sound information strikes, a tsunami is triggered, risk across all hazards, through the on which to base decisions on the a volcano erupts, or a landslide development of end-to-end research priorities for action, and methods to occurs, we are able to build models projects (see page 2, ‘Shining a light reduce risk. We seek understanding to compare risks between different on subduction; and page 3, ‘Profiling of geological processes and the perils. In this context, we are actively our super-volcano’).
Research aims »» Advance understanding of »» Derive new geologic slip rate and »» developing conceptual and earthquakes, to better understand paleo-seismic data for four of numerical models of sub-surface risk by: the faults involved in the 2016 eruption processes; and »» using active fault data to Kaikōura Earthquake—the Papatea, »» imaging subsurface conditions quantify the rate at which faults Hundalee, Humps and Hope (pre-eruption signals) in volcanic with high slip rate, high hazard, (Seward) faults. systems. and/or poor characterisation »» Improve medium-term forecasts of »» In collaboration with Victoria move; large earthquakes in the Wellington University, use knowledge of »» quantifying earthquake region, enhancing the forecasting super-volcano eruptive dynamics predictability, and developing model through improved to create a Caldera Health Status enhanced earthquake understanding of precursory System, and devise mitigation forecasting models; seismicity. strategies based on eruption »» improving understanding of »» Determine how and why slow- hazard and impact models that are the seismic cycle, including slip earthquakes are triggered by co-produced with iwi, CDEM, and stress build-up and release, regional earthquakes in shallow volcano advisory groups). fault mechanics, and fault subduction zones, by applying »» Advance understanding of landslide interactions; novel methodologies from landslide hazards, by: »» refining models of earthquake mechanics. »» characterising the spatial rupture; »» Better constrain seismic and distributions of landslide »» improving earthquake tsunami hazard of the Kaikōura- occurrences from rain, attenuation models for Marlborough regions by earthquakes, and other triggers, engineering and risk determining the magnitude and and their role in landscape applications; and frequency of past-coastal uplift. evolution; »» quantifying space-time »» Diagnose the nature and history »» recording, monitoring and variability in strong-ground of slip along Hikurangi margin modelling landslide processes motion. faults, to develop more-accurate in time and space, including »» Use high-frequency scattering earthquake and tsunami forecasts. initiation, run-out mechanisms, methodology and a dense and societal impacts; and »» Determine the sources of tsunami aftershock dataset to understand »» determining the geo-mechanical and the processes of propagation seismic wave effects in the near properties of soils and rocks, and inundation, to devise a surface, and their impact during the and how they influence the quantitative frequency-magnitude largest earthquakes. causes and evolution of framework for tsunami forecasting. landslides. »» Probe the Hikurangi subduction »» Advance understanding of active zone using full-waveform inversion »» Develop a decision-making volcanism, to improve response to determine what controls the framework and toolset that will times, by: spatial variation of mega-thrust slip immediately inform risk and behaviour. »» determining the frequency, size, risk-management methods and and style of volcanic eruptions practices in relation to Kaikoura through analysis of eruptive Earthquake landslides. deposits, and their potential impacts on communities;
44 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
6. Better mitigation planning By June 2019, a global volcanic impacts database hosted by Advanced information on the causes, frequency GNS Science is being operated, and consequences of hazard events in New Zealand in collaboration with the US has provided response agencies with tools to Geological Survey and the Global make more-effective and timely mitigation plans, Volcano Model. reducing risk across all hazards.
By June 2020, an automated operational earthquake 7. Enhanced global research presence forecasting framework is in place. Excellent research and strong collaboration has positioned New Zealand as a geohazards research centre of global significance for understanding hazard and associated risk. By June 2022, an operational landslide forecasting framework is in place.
Uptake and implementation The main users of hazard cause- and-effect models are government ministries and agencies, for informing strategy, policy, and operational procedures. These include DOC, EQC, MCDEM, Met Service, MFE, MBIE Building System Performance, NZTA (New Zealand Transport Agency), regional councils and territorial authorities. Insurance providers and underwriters, infrastructure providers, geotechnical consultants (such as BECA, DamWatch, Transpower, and Vector), iwi/Māori, and the public are also key end-users. Outputs are customised to specific needs, and include technical reports, popular articles and workshop presentations, as well as website postings and media releases. Because much of the research output is in the form of fundamental data sets and codes, other researchers are important next users; these include scientists involved in collaborative research and outreach through the Resilience Challenge, QuakeCoRE, DEVORA, It’s Our Fault, and East Coast LAB.
OUR RESEARCH 45 ASSESSING RISK
Science outlook Risk can be treated by a range of that we are comfortable to accept all New Zealanders. Key to this is mitigation methods—avoid, transfer, a certain level of risk from a low establishing enduring partnerships reduce, or accept. Our research probability, high-impact event such with government agencies to ensure underpins decisions about which as a Tohoku-size tsunami, so long as seamless and sustained delivery of treatment option is optimal: Do we build in safeguards such as good quality risk advice, using our expertise we avoid a lahar by not building in evacuation planning? to develop strong risk management potential pathways for future events? across government and the private Our RiskScape-based research makes Can we transfer the risk by insurance sector. us uniquely placed to inform national and, if so, how can insurers better conversations on natural hazards Underpinning RiskScape is the assess the premium we should pay? risk. We are developing multi- updating and development of Can we strengthen our buildings in hazard risk models, engaging with models for a full range of geological areas of high earthquake activity, decision makers to guide the most perils, leading to the creation of a thus lowering the likelihood of effective methods for risk mitigation, comparative National Natural Hazard business interruption? Do we have and improving our knowledge of Risk Model. the discussion with our communities how best to communicate risk to
Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Develop the RiskScape risk Risk analysis is undertaken by assessment tool, to support government ministries and agencies, effective management of natural such as DOC, EQC, LINZ, MCDEM, hazard impacts on New Zealand MBIE Building System Performance, communities, infrastructure and NZTA, and the Local Government Risk business. Agency, insurance and infrastructure providers, businesses, and »» Improve the reliability and community groups (including iwi/ applicability of national hazard Māori) via web-accessed RiskScape models, by: tools. These enable users to build »» combining multiple data sets their own hazard and asset modules, from earthquake geology, then import these for impact and loss earthquake catalogue, and modelling. They can also apply user- geodesy to more completely developed modules independently capture the earthquake process or in combination with RiskScape- in the National Seismic Hazard provided modules. National hazard Model (NSHM); models, codes, and peer-reviewed »» modelling the impact of data scientific publications, present quality and uncertainty on underpinning data for RiskScape earthquake hazard in the NSHM; development, and down-stream risk »» developing a national-scale and resilience modelling. Tsunami Inundation Hazard Model (TIHM); »» developing earthquake-induced and rainfall-induced landslide forecasting models; and »» developing a volcanic eruption forecasting model.
46 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
8. Enhanced risk analysis and uptake By June 2020, RiskScape tools are being used by at least half Enduring partnerships with insurance and other of all regional councils and companies have ensured uptake of accurate and territorial authorities and key timely risk evaluations, and widespread use of Government stakeholders. RiskScape to assist geohazard risk-reduction activities, resulting in more resilient New Zealand communities and businesses. By June 2022, an improved National Seismic Hazard Model is the basis for all earthquake risk modelling in New Zealand. 9. National Natural Hazard Risk Model A comprehensive National Natural Hazard Risk Model has been used to underpin development of RiskScape, as the basis for refined hazard-risk assessment, risk-based land-use planning, informed emergency responses, and appropriate investment in mitigation and risk-transfer mechanisms.
OUR RESEARCH 47 SOCIETAL & ECONOMIC RESILIENCE
Science outlook As host and partner to the Resilience We undertake research aimed at translating this into measures Challenge, we sustain momentum understanding the social, economic suitable for modelling social and around social and economic resilience and cultural factors that enhance economic impact, and recovery research, by playing a leading role community resilience, developing strategies (see page 3, ‘Smarter in helping the Government fulfil its economic models for quantifying buildings’). obligations to the Sendai Framework the economic impacts of disasters for Disaster Risk Reduction, and (loss modelling). We also assess the contributing to the development of performance of the built-environment a national strategy for disaster risk under different hazard intensities, reduction and resilience (see also page 18).
Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Advance understanding of the »» Improve methods for achieving Evidence-based societal resilience social, economic, and cultural acceptable levels of functionality of advice, in the form of science reports, factors that enhance community the built-environment in cities after policy briefs, stakeholder and resilience to geological hazards, by: an event by: community workshops, is accessed »» exploring ways to improve the »» determining the habitability and primarily by government ministries preparation and implementation functional recovery of buildings; and agencies, such as ACC (Accident Compensation Commission), EQC, of mitigation plans and policies; »» modelling interdependencies MCDEM, MFE, MOH, MSD (Ministry of »» devising strategies for of critical lifelines and Social Development), and regional enhancing community resilience infrastructure; and CDEM and lifeline groups. Pacific- to disasters; and »» modelling damage to horizontal rim countries, notably Vietnam, »» developing methods to improve infrastructure, outage and Indonesia, Vanuatu and Samoa, also behavioural responses warnings, recovery of utility networks. benefit from targeted research, via and disaster recovery. »» Improve infrastructural resilience NZAID. Data and models pertaining through better knowledge of the to infrastructural resilience are behaviour of anthropogenic slopes, fed directly into MBIE Housing and and developing efficient strategies Construction policy, and building for robust remediation approaches. codes. Community feedback, in the form of public talks and media »» Develop a tool for simulating articles, is widely accessed by iwi/ the flow of pedestrians during Māori and the public. a tsunami evacuation response, and establish procedures for using model outputs to improve evacuation planning.
48 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
10. Better-informed policy development By June 2019, research findings on societal resilience have Land-use planning, emergency management, and become a key part of MCDEM’s economic risk research findings have become new strategy. embedded in government policy, leading to increased societal resilience to geohazards.
By June 2020, functionality advice has contributed to revision of the Building Code and/or standards, such as 11. Enhanced preparedness, NZS1170.5 and NZ3604. response and recovery Policies containing effective natural-hazard planning procedures, with practical provisions to By June 2023, societal resilience develop resilience, such as through best-practice toolboxes have become a key communication, engagement and training, component of the strategies have resulted in communities that can respond for at least three quarters of effectively in a disaster and have a high recovery regional councils. capacity.
12. Improved infrastructure design Uptake of advice on design codes and standards has led to improved infrastructure design for earthquake and landslide protection, resulting in safer buildings and infrastructure, reduced socio- economic impact, and evidence-based investment planning.
OUR RESEARCH 49 SCIENCE FOR A MORE PROSPEROUS NZ
Our role is to provide the nation We will collaborate with universities, Research to ‘develop emerging ideas’, with tools to enhance resource government agencies and industry to relates to characterising our known security, energy stability, and provide leadership in understanding geothermal, petroleum and mineral sustainable development of its and promoting geological resource resources; research to ‘leverage geothermal energy, petroleum, and potential, and with high-value proven ideas’ relates to the delivery mineral resources, and to develop industries to promote uptake of new of knowledge supporting the existing new high-value materials and technologies. And we will apply our extraction industries; whereas processes for industry. knowledge to provide independent research to ‘generate new ideas’ is The desired outcomes for New and respected advice to inform focused on realising the potential of Zealand include environmentally debate on resource development, and offshore gas hydrate and seafloor responsible use of our energy and on opportunities in minerals, energy massive sulphide resources, and mineral resources, and creation or and high-value industries. innovative ways to improve energy efficiency. enhancement of high-value industries The 2018–19 investment of $21 that generate national wealth. To million is made up of 26% SSIF, 43% The recent downturn in domestic achieve this, we will delineate and contestable, and 31% commercial. consultancy from the geothermal and quantify New Zealand’s natural 35% supports the Renewable petroleum sectors has seen a sharp energy and mineral resources, and Geothermal Energy Theme, 37% decrease in ‘leverage proven ideas’, assist the discovery and development Petroleum Resources, 10% Mineral relative to the 2016-17 profile. of new minerals and manufacturing Resources, and 18% New Materials & processes. Processes.
50 OUR RESEARCH Science for a More Prosperous NZ (2018-19 Investment) $12m-
$10m- SSIF: Research
$8m- SSIF: NSC-aligned SSIF: Strategic $6m- MBIE Contestable RSNZ Contestable $4m- NSC Contestable
$2m- Other Contestable Commercial $0m- Generate new Develop Leverage ideas emerging ideas proven ideas
OUR RESEARCH 51 RENEWABLE GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
Science outlook In recognition of the critical Two main challenges face the of geothermal production, and contribution geothermal makes to industry, namely improving extracting additional value from our energy security, we continue to the efficiency of existing field- geothermal fluid streams. We also contribute strongly to supporting management operations, and seek to reduce the risks of drilling the viability of the industry, to developing reliable assessments of unproductive wells, and insufficient help the Government advance new geothermal resources. We are resource, to maintain generation by towards its goal of 100% renewable addressing these by developing a improving the predictive capabilities electricity generation by 2035. deep understanding of structure of geothermal resource assessment Our research addresses a range of and dynamics of the Taupo Rift, and models. As a result, cheaper barriers to profitability, including the the geothermal systems within it, geothermal developments will be maintenance of permeability and fluid near surface geothermal resources possible for greenfield sites, and flow, the discovery of new fields, and and their direct-use potential, and sustainable expansions of existing environmental degradation. novel approaches to improving sites. the sustainability and efficiency
Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Support sustainable development New Zealand-based geothermal horticulture, manufacturing and of New Zealand’s high- and low- companies Contact Energy, Mercury processing, and tourism industries temperature, deep and shallow NZ, Ngāti Tuwharetoa Geothermal also make use of information specific geothermal resources, by: Assets, Tauhara North No.2 Trust, to their needs. Environmental regulators, including EECA (Energy »» understanding near-surface Tikitere Trust, and Top Energy, as Efficiency & Conservation Authority), systems, through remote well as several overseas companies, EPA (Environmental Protection sensing and modelling, to including Chevron, EDC, Origin Energy, Agency), and regional councils maximise direct-use potential; and Pertamina, make extensive use of our expertise and research (principally Bay of Plenty, Northland, »» determining the hydrodynamics findings on a day to day basis to and Waikato) use research findings of deeper systems and their improve production efficiency, to set policy. Economic development heat sources; and and in the longer-term to de-risk agencies, such as NZP&M, Enterprise »» developing and trialling novel exploration strategy and operations. Great Lake Taupō, Grow Rotorua, techniques for metal extraction Knowledge transfer is by way of MFAT, NZTE, and Te Puni Kōkori from geothermal effluents. technical reports, geoscientific data, use research findings for strategy development and trade promotion. »» In collaboration with The University hands-on advice, industry workshop IPGT (International Partnership for of Auckland, improve the predictive presentations (e.g. NZ Geothermal Geothermal Technologies) provides a capabilities of geothermal resource Workshop; World Geothermal link for member governments (USA, assessment model, by developing Congress) and scientific papers. Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, new approaches to interpreting Geotechnical companies, including Switzerland, and Japan) to coordinate and extracting information from AECOM, BECA, HADES Systems, R&D and technological development. geothermal field data. MB Century, and Tiger; and direct- use companies in the heat pump,
52 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
By June 2019, New Zealand 13. Enhanced operational efficiency geothermal reservoir models Regular uptake by geothermal companies of are being built using a new flow geoscientific information relating to deep or near- simulator, and validated using a surface geothermal systems, improved modelling suite of enhanced modelling tools. and monitoring tools, and solutions to process efficiency issues, has resulted in a more profitable sector, and an increased contribution to New Zealand’s energy needs. By June 2022, resource assessment models are being used to plan new greenfield developments in New Zealand, increasing the amount of renewable electricity generation. 14. Greater socio-economic benefit Retention of high-quality research capability in New Zealand has provided cutting-edge solutions to exploration and production barriers, reducing costs for greenfield geothermal development, and sustainable expansion of existing plants, and advancing the Government’s goal of 100% renewable electricity generation by 2035.
OUR RESEARCH 53 PETROLEUM RESOURCES
Science outlook As the principal provider of petroleum exploration success. Although we elsewhere in New Zealand’s EEZ. geoscience research in New Zealand, provide technical overviews of frontier This diversified approach is helping we cover a wide range of specialist basins to support existing licenses to improve regional exploration disciplines, providing local expertise, there, we maintain a strong focus on play concepts and drilling target knowledge, and geoscientific data the proven oil-producing region of delineation. A nationally-significant to the global companies exploring Taranaki, where seismic mapping has compendium of maps, the Atlas of here. We address the question of how provided a benchmark for evaluating Petroleum Prospectivity, depicts geologically prospective New Zealand and refining future exploration current knowledge of the petroleum is by qualifying and quantifying critical planning. Our expanded data sets potential of our offshore basins, parameters of the petroleum systems of geochemical and petrophysical informing industry on the relative in our sedimentary basins. This helps properties of petroleum sources, merits of areas for exploration. reduce technical uncertainty and aids reservoir rocks, and fluids are driving we are assessing The potential of investment decision making. new interpretations of our petroleum the gas hydrates resource along systems. High-resolution fluid-flow Our sedimentary basin research the eastern coastline of the North models in known petroleum fields includes the study of critical aspects Island. in terms of economic viability, in Taranaki are forming an empirical of petroleum source, reservoir, production hazard, and environmental basis for predicting petroleum charge seal, trap and charge, where there implications, contributing base-line scenarios for as-yet undiscovered are gaps in knowledge that impede evidence for informed decision-making petroleum accumulation there, and on future development.
Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Advance understanding of the »» investigating the impact that The main research outputs are structure, stratigraphy, and changes in seafloor stability tailored explicitly to the needs of prospectivity of New Zealand’s or methane flux could have on the primary end-users. NZP&M uses sedimentary basins, by: marine ecosystems. petroleum data and interpretations to »» creating new maps and derivative »» In collaboration with The University develop strategy around exploration 3D models of the evolution of of Canterbury, publish new- activity, and to promote New Taranaki Basin structure and generation digital maps and Zealand to international exploration stratigraphy through geological metadata of potential subsurface companies. Research-based time; petroleum habitats in New consultancy is undertaken for nearly all companies exploring in and around »» providing an improved technical Zealand’s EEZ, to aid exploration New Zealand, and partnerships basis for evaluating petroleum targeting. have been established with potential; and »» Provide new insights into oil and several New Zealand and overseas »» applying new concepts to gas occurrences in New Zealand’s universities and international seismic understanding sedimentary EEZ, by: companies. architecture. »» determining the types, volumes, We have a high level of engagement and essential properties of »» In collaboration with NIWA, Otago with exploration and seismic petroleum source rocks; and Auckland universities, GEOMAR companies, with more than ten (Germany), and incorporating »» chemically analysing oils, companies providing co-funding, Vision Mātauranga and deliberative condensates, and gases to access to 3D seismic data volumes, community engagement, assess determine sources, migration petroleum fluid samples, and the implications of developing pathways, and controls on the specialised datasets for our research. prospective gas hydrate resources distribution of oil versus gas; Annual workshops are held to present along the Hikurangi margin, by: »» modelling the movement of the latest research results and data »» determining New Zealand-specific petroleum fluids through strata to companies and NZP&M, whilst frameworks for from gas-hydrate over geological time; and customised workshops are organised energy production; »» promoting informed dialogue for individual companies on request. »» predicting the geo-mechanical between the public, iwi, and Our Petroleum Basin Explorer (PBE) responses induced by production industry on environmental, web portal provides open access to drilling; and social, economic, and cultural geoscientific data and information. issues pertaining to petroleum exploration.
54 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
15. Improved resource management By June 2020, increased uptake and use by the Government Enhanced knowledge of the prospectivity of and the petroleum sector of petroleum resources within our sedimentary basins research results, including has led to greater confidence in New Zealand as an the Atlas of Petroleum attractive destination for oil and gas exploration, Prospectivity and petroleum new commercial discoveries, greater security of systems databases, is resulting energy supply, and increased exports of oil and in petroleum exploration wells natural gas derivatives; knowledge of the scale and drilled in Taranaki Basin and one quality of our gas-hydrate resource has encouraged or more frontier basins. exploration drilling; and informed debate on the risks, consequences, and potential benefits of petroleum exploration and production has led to By June 2023, interest in improved management of the resource. New Zealand’s gas hydrates by exploration companies is resulting in an exploratory drilling programme.
OUR RESEARCH 55 MINERAL RESOURCES
Science outlook Although the minerals industry in To achieve this, we are providing geochemical mineral exploration New Zealand is relatively small by the Government and industry with data, and delivery in appropriate international standards, it still makes information on mineralisation styles product formats. We are placing a significant (c. 1%) contribution to and processes, regional to deposit- more emphasis on understanding New Zealand’s GDP. Our research is scale exploration models, and the tectonic and geological drivers aimed at growing this, and attracting mineral prospectivity. This is used for mineral deposition, in relation to new exploration investment, to better identify areas of higher the evolution of Zealandia. Research particularly with respect to the mineral potential and exploration aimed at increasing knowledge of critical metals (see page 21) needed targets for de-risking exploration and specialised aggregate resources to support New Zealand’s ‘green’- extraction operations. Key to this is is also being undertaken, to ease technology manufacturing industry. the acquisition and interpretation concerns over supply related to of new geological, geophysical and increasing demand for infrastructure development and housing.
Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Determine the origin and »» delineating the 3D structure of The end-users of mineral data and distribution of onshore mineral sea-floor hydrothermal systems interpretations are: NZP&M, who deposits, and their geological and and their associated mineralised use mineral data, interpretations, economic context, to enhance their systems through IODP drilling; and models to inform strategy prospectivity and our ability to and and licensing policy, and resource locate them, by: »» developing holistic models assessment reports to attract mineral »» addressing the issue of scale for the formation of copper- exploration companies, such as Hardie of mineral systems by studying gold, and other ‘critical Pacific, to New Zealand; exploration metallogenic provinces, mineral metals’ required for ‘green’ and production companies, such camps, mineral deposits, and technologies. as OceanaGold, and Blue-Pacific ore formation processes; Minerals, who use research findings »» In collaboration with Otago and to inform and de-risk exploration »» creating 3D mineral exploration Auckland universities, make strategies and enhance operational models for key strategic deposit available regional to deposit-scale efficiency; consultants, such as types; exploration models to aid the Kenex, RSC, and Opus, who access »» devising innovative geoscientific discovery of new world-class gold- basic mineral data to undertake their methods for mineral silver deposits in New Zealand and contracted work; iwi/Māori, including exploration; and better-target resources in known Te Rūnanga O Ngāi Tahu, Ngāti Hako, »» updating an inventory of deposits, by: and Te Arawa; and regional councils, aggregate and mineral »» determining geological in particular Northland, Waikato, occurrences. and structural controls on West Coast, and Otago, who also the occurrence of volcanic, apply mineral prospectivity data »» Improve exploration methods for intrusive, and orogenic ores, and to inform decision-making around seafloor massive sulphide (SMS) characterising their geochemical resource assessment. Apart from deposits along the Kermadec arc, and geophysical footprints published reports and data sets, the by: to determine geochemical most effective modes of knowledge »» determining the size, extent, and mineralogical vectors to transfer are industry conference and heat flow of active seafloor mineralisation; and papers (AusIMM; PACRIM), articles in hydrothermal systems; »» validating ore-deposit models. industry magazines and, particularly »» conducting high-resolution for the frontier offshore realm, peer- geophysical surveys to »» Use the trace-element and isotopic reviewed journal papers. accurately locate and map sea- (Lu-Hf, O, U-Pb) composition of floor hydrothermal systems; zircon as a pathfinder for mineral deposits in New Zealand’s Western »» conducting remotely-operated Province. vehicle (ROV) surveys to surgically sample hydrothermal systems for vent fluids, minerals, and rocks for genetic studies;
56 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
16. Enhanced mineral prospectivity By June 2020, new exploration and deposit models, and digital The provision of enhanced models and targets map products, are widely used for exploration onshore, and within our EEZ, by the minerals industry for has enabled better-focused and more-efficient investment-risk analysis. exploration, resulting in increased Government revenues, flow-on wealth creation, and security of supply, particularly for the critical metals required for ‘green’-technology manufacturing. By June 2022, New Zealand’s mineral potential, as ranked in the Fraser Institute annual mining survey, has risen 10 points, taking it into the top 50 globally.
OUR RESEARCH 57 NEW MATERIALS & PROCESSES
Science outlook Taking advantage of our niche in performance in sensor applications use of energy and energy networks ion beam technology, we undertake (see page 3, ‘Smarter buildings’). We and are seeking ways to achieve research in advanced materials, with work closely with several New Zealand resilience of energy infrastructure applications in the development of manufacturers to develop and to natural hazards. This includes sensor devices and systems, and prototype the devices needed development of new materials functional surfaces. Both areas have for energy conservation, security for improved energy efficiency in rapidly expanding global markets that systems, food processing, medical industrial processes (e.g. direct are already worth billions of dollars. applications, and other markets. use of geothermal energy), new We modify the near-surface region of devices to harvest waste heat, and We are developing new materials and metallic and other substrates to alter storage devices customised to local technologies for storage and efficient surface properties, or to enhance conditions.
Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Develop fundamental new Close engagement or partnership materials and sensors for high- with high-value manufacturers, value manufacturing applications, such as Gallagher Group and Page as proof-of-concept precursors to MacRae, engineering consultants, more-specific product and process such as HEPA, and technology applications. incubators, such as WNT Ventures, Astrolab, and Powerhouse, ensures »» Create new devices by firing there is an active two-way flow of 28Si atoms into native silicon to innovative ideas and knowledge. eliminate 29Si atoms that interfere Involvement in R&D networks with quantum computing. established within the University of »» Develop a true cool black pigment, Auckland’s Product Accelerator, the distinct in its ability to reflect most MacDiarmid Institute, the Science for solar radiation. Technological innovation NSC, the NZ Materials Manufacturing Network, »» Develop next generation band- and TIDA, also facilitates uptake and pass filters for use in the GHz implementation of research findings. communication bands. Scientific papers, reports and industry »» In collaboration with Victoria and seminars provide effective avenues Auckland universities, contribute for peer-review, while patents, where to the development of a roadway- appropriate, ensure for IP protection. charging system for electric vehicle, by optimising methods for producing magnetic nanoparticles, nanofibers, microcrystalline powders, and polymers for the fabrication of magnetic flux guides.
58 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
17. More energy-efficient products By June 2020, R&D created by GNS Science is taken up and Technological innovations for renewable energy use used by at least one primary have been developed by New Zealand companies, industry or manufacturing leading to more energy-efficient primary and company. manufacturing industries and products, and wealth creation.
OUR RESEARCH 59 UNDERPINNING GEOSCIENCE KNOWLEDGE
Our role is to expand understanding To achieve this, we will continue Research to ‘generate new ideas’ of Earth science in New Zealand to explore and map the geological relates to data acquisition and and to ensure that geoscientific history, structure and processes of the development of fundamental information, data, and collections Zealandia. We will cooperate with understandings of the geological are acquired, managed, and the producers, users, and stewards makeup of Zealandia; research to made available to next- and end- of geoscience data and collections ‘develop emerging ideas’ relates users now and in the future, thus to ensure security and accessibility to database development and the providing a comprehensive and now and into the future. We will refinement of pre-existing knowledge accessible knowledge base to use geoscience information, high- (mapping); whereas research to support policy and decision making performance computing, data analysis, ‘leverage proven ideas’ relates to by Government, communities, and and new technologies to facilitate support of our Nationally Significant industry. innovation that serves local, regional, Databases and Collections (NSDC), and national needs. And we will and the use of acquired geoscience promote, educate and build public and knowledge to solve current stakeholder awareness of our geology, geoscientific problems. associated geoscience information and its potential benefits for the nation. The 2018–19 investment of $11 million is 82% SSIF, 5% contestable 13% commercial. 72% supports the Zealandia Revealed Theme, and 28% Geoscience Information.
60 OUR RESEARCH Underpinning Geoscience Knowledge (2018-19 Investment)
$6m-
$5m- SSIF: Research $4m- SSIF: Strategic SSIF: NSDC $3m- MBIE Contestable RSNZ Contestable $2m- Other Contestable
$1m- Commercial
$0m- Generate new Develop Leverage ideas emerging ideas proven ideas
OUR RESEARCH 61 ZEALANDIA REVEALED
Science outlook As an island nation with one of the and Campbell frontiers, northeast organisations, such as IODP largest marine jurisdictions in the and southeast of New Zealand, (see page 2, ‘Probing Zealandia’). world (95% of its total EEZ; c. 6 million respectively, the submarine volcanoes After drilling in the Tasman Sea (Lord km2), New Zealand has continental- of the Kermadec arc, and the plate Howe Rise) to investigate subduction scale resources, with attendant boundary zone extending from East initiation, drilling along the Hikurangi responsibilities and opportunities. It Cape to Fiordland. The aim is to margin is investigating, for the also has significant hazards related acquire information on the tectono- first time, the physical controls on to the contact between the two stratigraphic history of Zealandia, and subduction earthquakes, including active tectonic plates that straddle baseline information on climate and slow moving (days to months) the continent, and Zealandia’s environmental history, and on-going plate-boundary slip events. Drilling sedimentary basins record the climate improvements to the New Zealand of Brothers submarine volcano in history of the southwest Pacific. Geological Timescale, to underpin the Kermadec arc is exploring the Building on research begun in the assessment of its hazard, climate associated hydrothermal system, and 1960s, we will continue to survey change, and resource potential. the role of underlying magma. Other and study the underlying geology drilling legs within New Zealand’s Such integrated marine and onshore of this vast continent, a task that is EEZ and the Ross Dependency are research requires sophisticated and large by any measure. Our focus will investigating climate change and gas expensive infrastructure, which is be on collecting and interpreting hydrate formation. leveraged through collaboration geoscientific data in the Tasman with overseas marine research
Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Determine the underlying »» Develop a 3D model of the Taupo Because of the fundamental nature geological structure, and model the Rift, with a focus on faulting, large- and broad scope of research tectonic evolution of Zealandia, by: scale structure, and dynamics; carried out under this theme, the main users are other researchers, »» synthesising long-term and »» Refine the New Zealand timescale who build on the knowledge and short-term active crustal via integrated biostratigraphic and apply it to their own research into deformation, including rates of isotopic research. horizontal and vertical motion, hazard resilience, environmental strain, and stress; »» Determine the tectono- sustainability, geological resources, stratigraphic evolution, and crustal evolution. Thus, the main »» analysing Hikurangi margin paleogeography, and sediment modes of knowledge transfer are subduction and fore-arc dispersal pathways within high-impact peer-reviewed scientific processes, and Alpine Fault Cretaceous-Cenozoic successions papers and international conference continental collision processes; of our offshore sedimentary basins presentations. This, and ready access and (the Zealandia Megasequence). to one of the world’s best natural »» determining feedback between laboratories for studying active »» Detect temporal changes in tectonics and landscape tectonics, results in a high degree of stress associated with aseismic evolution. international science collaboration. slip on the subduction interface, »» Determine the crustal structure, and determine how these stress tectonic history, resource potential changes impact seismicity in and natural hazards of offshore surrounding regions. Zealandia, using geophysical data, building on IODP drilling of the Lord »» Use Interferometric Synthetic Howe Rise, Brothers Volcano, and Aperture Radar (InSAR) and GPS to Hikurangi margin, and observatory measure South Island deformation, installations monitoring near- and provide new evidence for surface deformation and seismicity. ‘hidden faults’.
62 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
18. Deeper understanding of By June 2019, IODP drilling of crustal evolution the Hikurangi subduction zone, the Tasman Sea, and Brothers Higher-resolution and more-accurate characterisation Volcano, is providing high- of the composition, stratigraphy, structure, temporal quality samples and data for and spatial tectonic evolution of, and fluid flow through, analysis, and new and important Zealandia, onshore and offshore, has underpinned insights. estimates of resource and hazard potential.
By June 2021, tectonic, paleogeographic and geodetic information are being taken 19. Deeper understanding of up and used for marine-and Earth deformation and plate land-use planning and decision boundary processes making, hazard assessment and risk mitigation, and/or resource Enhanced knowledge of current rates of deformation assessment. and landscape change, and the nature of the Hikurangi megathrust, Taupo Rift, and Alpine-Marlborough-North Island Fault systems, has informed models of seismic hazard, leading to refined time-dependent estimates of seismic and tsunami hazard.
OUR RESEARCH 63 GEOSCIENCE INFORMATION
Science outlook We have a long-term role as (NPC) and associated databases associated databases, Geodetic Database, and the Strong Motion the national provider of trusted »» National Petrology Reference Database. geoscience knowledge and of Collection (NPRC) and PETLAB hosting, maintaining, and enhancing To realise the full value of these »» Regional Geological Map Archive Nationally-Significant geoscience and assets to the nation and the and Data File (RGMAD) geospatial Databases and Collections: research community, we actively »» Earthquake Information Database »» Volcano Database (VDB) seek ways to enhance efficient and widespread utilisation, by: improving (EID) We also maintain approximately 30 the quality and depth of our data; other nationally-important databases »» Fossil Record File (FRF) managing national sample collections; and datasets that underpin New updating and delivering geological »» Geomagnetic Database (GMD) Zealand geoscience. Some of these maps, analyses and information; are publicly accessible, including the »» National Groundwater Monitoring implementing global standards; and Geological Resource Map of New Programme (NGMP) adopting emerging technologies for Zealand (GERM), Landslide Database enhanced data delivery. »» National Paleontology Collection (LDB), Active Faults Database (AFDB), Petroleum Basin Explorer (PBE) and Research aims Uptake and implementation »» Assess the functionality of all our quality parameters (chemistry, Ready access to quality geoscience nationally significant and other age, nutrients, and microbial data, in the form of analyses, data nationally important databases, biodiversity), improving legacy sets, archived samples, images, and validate their effectiveness data quality, and optimising data maps, and map products, is required within the context of a wider accessibility. by a wide range of users involved database management strategy in research, strategy, or decision »» Absorb new collections into the and implementation roadmap. making. Government-funded National Petrology Reference researchers supported by, for »» Maintain and improve data integrity Collection and enter associated example, MBIE Endeavour, RSNZ for the Earthquake Information information into the PETLAB Marsden, QuakeCoRE, DEVORA, It’s Database, progressively ‘relocating’ online database, improving public Our Fault, East Coast LAB, and the historic earthquake data, ensuring accessibility through new data Resilience, Deep South, Sustainable improved and more consistent licensing, and reviewing database Seas, and Our Land and Water NSCs, seismic moment and magnitudes quality, structure and functionality. add value to the data to create new for historic and recent events. »» Acquire geospatial information on knowledge across a broad range of »» Maintain an up-to-date geological features of New Zealand sectors. Stratigraphic Lexicon and enhance and its territories through digital Officials in government ministries, the National Paleontology capture of legacy geological maps regional councils, territorial Collection with new catalogues and held in the Regional Geological Map authorities, and other agencies taxonomic data. Archive and Data File, updating use the information as an evidence national digital geological map »» Improve functionality, security, base for development of policy products and generating new and robustness of the delivery and procedure. Technical officers geological maps and associated mechanisms for the Fossil Record within the resource, infrastructure, datasets of cities, volcanic centres File, integrating it better with the environment, and civil defence and Antarctica, adopting relevant National Paleontology Collection. sectors use the data to de-risk international data standards, economic analysis and to inform »» Collect and process continuous and ensuring versatile and critical decision making. Geoscience magnetic data from Eyrewell technologically-current delivery of information, in the form of popular (Canterbury), Scott Base these geological map products. articles and media releases, is also (Antarctica) and Apia (Samoa) »» Migrate all relevant data to a taken up by iwi/Māori and the public for the Geomagnetic Database, redesigned comprehensive Volcano to enhance their knowledge of Earth submitting the data to the Database structure and implement systems, and help inform opinion and INTERMAGNET global directory to data-quality assessment community decision making. the required specifications. procedures, future monitoring- »» Maintain the National Groundwater related data capture and data Monitoring Programme, visualisation and accessibility analysing samples for water interfaces.
64 OUR RESEARCH IMPACTS MEASURES OF SUCCESS
20. Enhanced database efficacy By June 2019, a Data Management Strategy and Our most important databases and collections Roadmap is in place for our are all of a known quality, and have documented eight Nationally Significant operating principles and properties, allowing their Databases and Collections, and data to be used with more efficiency, confidence, all are being managed to those and consistency. expectations.
By June 2021, there is enhanced usage, with positive feedback, for our publicly-accessible databases, leading to impacts across a wide range of geoscience applications in the environment, resources, geohazard, and education sectors.
OUR RESEARCH 65 HORIZON SCANNING
A component of our SSIF (c. $2.4 million annually), named the ‘Strategic Development Fund’ (SDF), is allocated contestably on a two-year cycle to investigate the potential of innovative research ideas. Such ideas may require ‘pilot’ testing for research or commercial potential before they can be considered for longer-term investment.
Examples of targeted projects, to be »» Enhancing our Vision Mātauranga »» Addressing deficiencies in the completed by June 2019, include: research capability by appointing National Seismic Hazard Model a new Māori social scientist and that affect our ability to conduct »» Integrating biostratigraphic increasing support for existing seismic hazard consultancy, research over four IODP legs in the Māori researchers. namely insufficient modelling of New Zealand region, generating fault uncertainty, and a lack of well-calibrated paleontological »» Strategically designing, building, documentation of fault-source data from across Zealandia that and implementing features to development. will transform the NZ Geological enhance the OpenQuake engine for Timescale and biostratigraphic research and commercial use. »» Supporting on-ship involvement database. with IODP drilling of Brothers »» Addressing the weakness in Volcano, increasing our »» Determining fossil fuel and CO generating probabilities of 2 understanding of mineral deposit fluxes for New Zealand’s largest additional large earthquakes in formation along arcs, sub-seafloor city, Auckland. Kaikoura-like events by developing architecture, and the relationship an advanced modern earthquake between magmatic fluid discharge simulator. and the deep biosphere.
66 HORIZON SCANNING »» Building the foundations for From 2018-19, we have boosted our We have also set aside some SSIF to a game-changing fabrication SSIF investment in two key strategic further improve our implementation technology for rapid micro- areas: of Vision Mātauranga in our science electronic prototyping (atomic 4D programmes, recognising the need to 1. Developing and updating models printing). develop capability and culture to both for a fuller range of natural increase engagement, and support »» Bringing together a team of hazard perils, putting in place scientific development, with Māori. scientists and support staff to the building blocks for creating a firmly, tangibly, and indelibly comparative natural hazard risk We have invested a similar amount associate GNS Science with the model (see page 46, Research for the development of a data and past, present, and future discovery aims); and analytics strategy, recognising that and exploration of onshore and Big Data and analytics will shape 2. Developing modelling capability offshore Zealandia. the future science and innovation to deliver a hydrological ‘QMap’ landscape, and that GNS Science »» Using data acquired from IODP of New Zealand, and associated needs to understand and capitalise on drilling of the Tasman Frontier models (10-year plan), creating the opportunities that will arise from to refine our understanding of the building blocks that will better utilisation and custodianship of Paleocene-Recent tectonic and allow decisions on sustainable our national data sets. climate events in NW Zealandia. groundwater management (see page 38). SSIF will also be used to integrate »» Developing a non-proprietary social science disciplines across information store for next- our research portfolio, beyond generation 3D geological modelling natural hazards, to broaden GNS components. Science’s impact and influence with communities.
HORIZON SCANNING 67 PERFORMANCE MONITORING
The overall performance of GNS Science is monitored via the set of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) set out in the table below. The KPIs are complementary to the 27 Measures of Success linked to the Research Aims and Impacts detailed on pages 34 to 65.
2018–19 deliverables additional to »» Research findings on societal »» A Data Management Strategy and the ‘Upcoming Milestones’ on pages resilience have become a key part Roadmap is in place for our eight 2 and 3 and the ‘Horizon Scanning’ of MCDEM’s new strategy. Nationally Significant Databases initiatives on pages 66 and 67 are: and Collections, and all are being »» New Zealand geothermal reservoir managed to those expectations. »» GeoNet has a 24/7 awake models are being built using a new monitoring service in place, flow simulator, and validated using including enhanced capability to a suite of enhanced modelling tools. respond to local-source tsunamis. »» IODP drilling of the Hikurangi »» A global volcanic impacts database subduction zone, the Tasman Sea, hosted by GNS Science is being and Brothers Volcano, is providing operated, in collaboration with high-quality samples and data for the US Geological Survey and the analysis, and new and important Global Volcano Model. insights.
Year ending Forecast Budget Outlook Outlook Indicator Measure 30 June 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Strategic Intent Priority setting Surveyed end-users* have confidence that GNS Science considers their >70% >70% >70% >70% sector’s priorities when setting their research priorities Team selection Surveyed end-users* have confidence that GNS Science has assembled ‘best’ >85% >85% >85% >85% teams for research delivery
68 PERFORMANCE MONITORING Year ending Forecast Budget Outlook Outlook Indicator Measure 30 June 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Impact Research milestones (critical steps) on Research delivery >85% >85% >85% >85% track or completed Impact case Impact case studies published 3 3 3 3 studies Surveyed end-users* have adopted Knowledge knowledge from GNS Science in the past >90% >90% >90% >90% transfer three years Science Excellence Peer-review Programme reviews carried out 5 5 5 5 Publication Impact of scientific publications 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 impact (weighted citation index)** Joint publications Papers co-authored 90% 90% 90% 90% Research Leverage Proportion of (basic) science investment Discovery science 30 30 30 30 (new ideas generation) Commercial revenue per scientist FTE Co-funding 80 80 80 80 ($000) Consultancy Commercial reports per scientist FTE 1 1 1 1 Vision Mātauranga Māori Projects with Māori stakeholders 4 4 5 5 engagement embedded in the research High Performance Culture Recordable injuries per 200,000 work Health & Safety <3 <3 <2 <2 hours (rolling 12-month average) Percentage of staff proud to work for Staff morale GNS Science (biennial climate survey) 75% 75% >80% >80%
* Based on a biennial MBIE-commissioned Colmar Brunton Survey (>50 respondents) **Mean 2-year impact factor for SCImago-assessed journals, weighted by the number of GNS Science publications
PERFORMANCE MONITORING 69 FINANCIAL FORECASTING
GNS Science has in recent years delivered consistent base-line normalised operational profits, which have been punctuated by increased activity and associated revenues caused by significant national events—for example responses to the Canterbury earthquakes of 2010-11, and the Kaikoura earthquake of 2016.
The strategic reorganisation of our GNS Science has sufficient actual Deployment of SSIF executive and corporate services, and and forecast cash flows to meet the The $27.54 million SSIF investment science division structure, coupled requirements of the business during (see table, page 71) enables GNS with changes to SSIF allocation, and beyond the years affected by Science to build with confidence clearly has financial consequences. In the Strategic Review. Commercial and with speed, science capability in the short-term, financial performance revenue declined during 2017-18, areas of national need. Without SSIF, will be adversely affected by costs due to difficult trading conditions in developing capability would have associated with conducting the the energy sector, but is expected been a slow and uncertain process Strategic Review, and restructuring, to rebound over time as a result of via contestable bidding. Our science after which we anticipate the Institute Strategic Review initiatives. users also benefit from being able to to be well placed to deliver strong and A major, nationally significant align their funding with our SSIF and sustainable financial performance. infrastructure investment by MBIE hence boost outcome delivery. Capital investment plans include has been made around the delivery of SSIF has remained constant since on-going investment in scientific a 24/7 immediate geohazards warning its introduction in 2010, apart from equipment to support our science system (EGM), and forecast revenue a $423k increase in support for our activities and to secure new revenue and cash flow streams reflect this. Nationally Significant Databases streams. Our rolling IT upgrade, Budgeted revenue for the 2018-19 and Collections in the 2015 Budget. and our building and facility financial year is $94.4 million with At a programme level, there has, refurbishment programmes will planned earnings before interest and and will continue to be, investment continue. Our capital investment tax of $2.2 million. adjustments made on the basis programme will, however, be affected of changing sector priorities and by the ongoing Strategic Review. shifts in international science (see pages 6 and 67). Such changes are implemented by the Executive with Board approval.
70 FINANCIAL FORECASTING Commercial value Dividend policy Compensation Section 16(3) of the CRI Act requires Our dividend policy states that the Where the Crown wishes us to the Company to furnish an estimate Company may elect to return surplus undertake activities or assume of the current commercial value of the cash to shareholders in the form of a obligations that will result in a Crown’s investment. We use net asset dividend when no sound investment reduction of our profit or net worth, value as a proxy for the commercial opportunities exist (including the Board will seek compensation value of the Group. The net asset reinvestment, commercialisation, sufficient to allow the Company’s position as shown in accordance with capital expenditure, and the position to be restored. No the company’s accounting policies for retention of important capabilities). compensation is currently being 30 June 2017 was $34.9 million In determining surplus cash, the sought from the Crown. Board will also give consideration to the ongoing financial viability of the company and their obligations under the Companies Act 1993. Any dividend would be paid within two months of the end of the financial year.
Government Research NSC Aligned Database Total Outcome Area ($k) ($k) Support ($k) ($k)
Biological Industries 0 0 0 0
Energy and Minerals 6,431 400 821 7,652 Hazards and 10,937 1,000 1,160 13,098 Infrastructure Environment 3,835 900 714 5449
High-value Manufacturing 424 250 0 674
Capability Enhancement 666 0 0 666
Total 22,292 2,550 2,696 27,538
FINANCIAL FORECASTING 71 Group Ratios and Statistics Forecast Budget Outlook Outlook Outlook Outlook Year ending 30 June 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Revenue ($000s)
Total Revenue 87,806 94,414 95,470 97,350 99,460 101,600
Revenue growth 1.7% 7.5% 1.1% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2%
Operating results ($000s)
Operating expenses (excluding depreciation) 82,766 86,253 86,526 87,698 89,152 90,930
EBITDA 5,040 8,161 8,944 9,652 10,308 10,669
EBIT (1,880) 2,161 2,944 3,652 4,158 4,422
Profit before tax (1,250) 2,701 3,444 4,152 4,708 4,972
Profit after tax (900) 1,945 2,480 2,990 3,390 3,580
EBITDA per FTE 13 20 22 24 25 26
Total assets 60,777 60,476 62,166 64,380 67,504 70,816
Total equity 34,011 35,706 37,936 40,676 43,816 47,146
Capital expenditure 4,300 7,350 6,850 6,350 6,350 6,850
Liquidity
Quick ratio 2.4 x 2.3 x 2.2 x 2.2 x 2.3 x 2.5 x
Interest coverage 168.0 x N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Profitability
Return on equity (2.6%) 5.6% 6.7% 7.6% 8.0% 7.9%
Operating margin 5.7% 8.6% 9.4% 9.9% 10.4% 10.5%
Operational risk
Profit volatility 25.0% 25.0% 23.3% 22.2% 21.8% 9.5%
Forecasting risk (2.6%)
Growth/Investment
Capital renewal 0.8 x 1.2 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.0 x 1.1 x
Financial strength
Equity ratio 56.0% 59.0% 61.0% 63.2% 64.9% 66.6%
72 FINANCIAL FORECASTING FINANCIAL FORECASTING 73 ACCOUNTING POLICIES
REPORTING ENTITY AND ACTIVITIES REVENUE
The Institute of Geological and are those entities controlled by the Strategic Science Investment Nuclear Sciences Limited is Company. Control is achieved where Fund established under the Crown Research the Company has the power to govern The Company is party to a Strategic Institutes Act 1992 and the Companies the financial and operating policies of Science Investment Fund (SSIF) Act 1993. Its subsidiary companies an entity to obtain benefits from its agreement with the Crown to perform are established under the Companies activities. research activities. Revenue under this Act 1993. The financial statements The subsidiaries of the Company are: contract is treated as a Government have been prepared in accordance Grant under NZ IAS 20. with the Crown Research Institutes Isoscan Limited Act 1992, the Public Finance Act 1989, Isoscan Food Limited Revenue from other research the Companies Act 1993, the Crown Geological Surveys (New Zealand) and commercial contracts Entities Act 2004 and the Financial Limited Revenue earned from the supply of Reporting Act 2013. goods and services is measured at the Geological Risk Limited Consolidated financial statements for fair value of consideration received. GNS Science International Limited the group comprising the Institute Revenue from services is recognised of Geological and Nuclear Sciences The principal activities of the Group are based on the percentage of work Limited (the Company) and its to undertake geoscience and isotope completed. Any amounts received in subsidiaries are presented and the science research, development and relation to work not yet commenced effects of intra-group transactions commercial projects, predominantly in are recorded as revenue in advance. are fully eliminated in the consolidated New Zealand. Revenue from the supply of goods is financial statements. Subsidiaries recognised when the significant risks and rewards of ownership of the goods have been transferred to the buyer.
74 ACCOUNTING & BUSINESS POLICIES PROPERTY, PLANT INTANGIBLE DEFERRED TAX
AND EQUIPMENT ASSETS Deferred tax is accounted for using the comprehensive balance sheet liability Property, plant and equipment are Software, patents and capitalised method in respect of temporary stated at cost less accumulated development costs have a finite differences arising from differences depreciation and impairment. Cost life and are included at cost less between the carrying amount of includes expenditure that is directly accumulated amortisation and assets and liabilities in the financial attributable to the acquisition of the impairment. Amortisation is charged statements and the corresponding item. Assets have been depreciated on on a straight-line basis at rates tax base of those items. In principle, a straight-line basis at rates calculated calculated to allocate the assets’ cost deferred tax liabilities are recognised to allocate the assets’ cost over their over their estimated remaining useful for all taxable temporary differences. estimated remaining useful lives. lives. Freehold land is not depreciated. The estimated useful life and Deferred tax assets are recognised to the extent that it is probable that The estimated useful lives, residual amortisation method are reviewed sufficient taxable amounts will be values and depreciation methods are annually, with the effect of any available against which deductible reviewed annually, with the effect of changes in estimate being accounted temporary differences or unused tax any changes in estimate accounted for for on a prospective basis. losses and tax offsets can be utilised. on a prospective basis. The following useful lives are used in The carrying amount of deferred tax The gain or loss arising on the disposal the calculation of amortisation: assets is reviewed and reduced to the or retirement of an item of property, extent that it is no longer probable plant and equipment is recognised in Software 4–8 years that sufficient taxable profits will be profit or loss. Patents 4–17 years available to allow all or part of the Heritage assets - collections, Capitalised assets to be recovered. 4–8 years library and databases development costs Deferred tax assets and liabilities The Company owns various collections, are measured at the tax rates that library resources and databases that are expected to apply in the period are an integral part of the research in which the liability is settled or the work undertaken by the Company. asset realised. These collections are highly specialised Under Section OB1(2)(d) of the Income and there is no reliable basis for Tax Act (2007), the Company is not establishing a valuation. The two major required to maintain an imputation collections are: credit account. The National Paleontological Collection The National Petrological Reference Collection
ACCOUNTING & BUSINESS POLICIES 75 EMPLOYEE TRADE AND RELATED PARTY ENTITLEMENTS OTHER PAYABLES TRANSACTIONS
Liabilities for wages and salaries, Trade and other payables are non- The Crown is the ultimate shareholder annual leave, long service leave and interest bearing and are normally of the Company. No other transactions retirement leave are recognised when settled on the 20th of the month with New Zealand government owned it is probable that settlement will be following receipt of invoice. The entities are considered as related party required and they are capable of being carrying value of creditors and other transactions in terms of NZ IAS 24. reliably measured. payables approximates their fair value. Employee benefits to be settled within twelve months are reported at the amount expected to be paid FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS and are classified as current liabilities. Employee benefits not expected to Capital management Interest rate risk be settled within twelve months are The Group manages its capital to The Group operates a call account and reported at the present value of the ensure that entities in the Group will has short-term deposits on which estimated future cash outflows. be able to continue as going concerns interest is earned. Where possible while maximising the return to the Group manages exposures to Provisions for long service leave shareholders through the optimisation interest rate fluctuations through and retirement leave depend on a of the debt and equity balance. prudent management of its treasury number of assumptions such as the operations. expected employment period of The capital structure of the Group employees, salary levels and the timing consists of cash and cash equivalents, In managing interest rate risks the of employees taking leave. When and equity attributable to equity Group aims to reduce the impact of measuring employee benefit liabilities holders of the parent, comprising short-term fluctuations on earnings. risk-free discount rates provided issued capital and retained Over the longer-term, however, by The Treasury are used as the earnings. The Group is not subject permanent changes in interest rates appropriate discount rates, the salary to any externally imposed capital will have an impact on profit. increase factor is based on forecast requirements. information and employee pattern Credit risk management of leave has been determined after Currency risk The financial instruments which considering historical data. The Group undertakes certain expose the Group to credit risk are transactions denominated in foreign principally bank balances, short term currencies. Exchange rate exposures investments and accounts receivable. are managed within approved policy The Group monitors credit risk on an limits using forward foreign exchange ongoing basis. contracts. Bank balances and short-term These derivative financial instruments investments are held with are initially recognised at fair value New Zealand registered banks on the date the derivative contract in accordance with the Group’s is entered into and are subsequently treasury policy. remeasured to their fair value at No collateral is held by the Group in the end of each reporting period. respect of bank balances, short term Derivatives are carried as assets investments or accounts receivable. when the fair value is positive and The maximum exposure to credit risk as liabilities when the fair value is is represented by the carrying value negative. The resulting profit or of each financial asset in the Balance loss is recognised in profit and loss Sheet. immediately, unless the derivative is designated effective as a hedging Liquidity risks instrument, in which event the timing The Group manages liquidity risk of the recognition in profit or loss by maintaining adequate reserves, depends on the nature of the hedging cash deposits and reserve borrowing relationship. facilities, by monitoring forecast The effective portion of changes in and actual cash flows and matching the fair value of cash flow hedges is the maturity profiles of financial recognised in other comprehensive assets and liabilities, all of which are income and accumulated in a cash flow of a short-term nature. The Group hedge reserve. The gain or loss relating continues to generate sufficient to any ineffective portion is recognised cash flows from operations to meet immediately in profit or loss. financial liabilities.
76 ACCOUNTING POLICIES COMMITMENTS
Non-cancellable operating lease commitments Operating lease payments are Leases are classified as finance leases The Group has no leases which would recognised on a systematic basis whenever the terms of the lease be classified as finance leases. representing the pattern in which transfer a significant portion of all of economic benefits from the leased the risks and rewards of ownership asset are consumed over the to the lessee. All other leases are lease term. classified as operating leases.
PREPARATION DISCLOSURES
Statement of compliance Interest in joint arrangements Critical accounting estimates The financial statements have been A joint arrangement is an arrangement and judgements prepared in accordance with New whereby the Company or its In applying the accounting Zealand generally accepted accounting subsidiaries have joint control over an policies, there is the requirement practice. They comply with New entity. Joint control is the contractually for judgements, estimates and Zealand equivalents to International agreed sharing of control of an assumptions to be made about the Financial Reporting Standards and arrangement, which exists only when carrying amounts of some assets other applicable Financial Reporting decisions about the relevant activities and liabilities. The estimates and Standards, as appropriate for profit- of that entity require the unanimous assumptions are based on historical oriented entities. The financial consent of the parties sharing control. experience and other relevant factors. statements also comply with A joint arrangement is either a joint Actual results may differ from these International Financial Reporting operation or a joint venture. For a joint estimates. Standards. operation the Group recognises its Accounting policies where critical share of assets, liabilities, revenues Accounting policies have been applied estimates have been made include and expenses on a line-by-line basis consistently to all periods presented in property, plant and equipment, using the proportionate method. For the financial statements. intangible assets, impairment of a joint venture the Group recognises assets and liabilities and employee its interest in a joint venture as an Measurement basis benefits. Judgement has been applied investment and accounts for that The financial statements of the Group in determining not to value heritage investment using the equity method. have been prepared on an historical assets for financial reporting purposes. cost basis, except that derivative Classification of financial New standards and financial instruments are measured at assets and liabilities their fair value. interpretations not The Group holds loans and receivables. yet adopted Transactions in foreign currencies are These are measured at cost less Standards and interpretations converted at the New Zealand rate impairment, or in the case of trade effective in the current period - of exchange ruling on the date of the receivables, reduced by an allowance there are no new standards and transaction. Monetary assets and for doubtful debts. interpretations effective in the current liabilities at year end are converted to Financial liabilities, excluding derivative period with a material impact. New Zealand dollars at the exchange financial instruments, are classified as rate ruling at balance date. Standards and interpretations ‘other financial liabilities’. approved but not yet in effect The financial statements are presented Other financial liabilities are initially – New or revised standards and in New Zealand dollars which is the measured at fair value, net of interpretations that have been Group’s functional currency. All values transaction costs. Other financial approved but are not yet in effect are rounded to the nearest thousand liabilities are subsequently measured have not been adopted for the year dollars. at amortised cost, with interest ended 30 June 2017. The adoption of expense recognised on an effective these standards and interpretations interest basis. is not expected to have a material recognition or measurement impact on the financial statements. These will be applied when they become mandatory.
ACCOUNTING POLICIES 77 IMAGE CREDITS
FRONT/BACK COVER: OPERATIONAL INITIATIVES (pages 30–31) The road to Aoraki, deep in the Southern Alps, Upper Waitaki Hydro network, Otago, Hamish Clark - unsplash.com Chris Sisarich - nzstory.govt.nz
UPCOMING MILESTONES (pages 2–3): OUR RESEARCH (pages 32–65) Auckland Skyline at sunset, Unknown Flecked Peak, Mid Burn, Stuart Mountains, Southland, Lloyd Seismic Monitoring, Unknown Homer Lakes Waikareiti and Waikaremoana, Te Urewera National Park, Inside the ice core tent, Antarctica, Nancy Bertler Dougal Townsend Mount Erebus, Antarctica, Lloyd Homer Mount Herschel and pack ice, Antarctica, Lloyd Homer Kaikoura Peninsula, Marlborough, Lloyd Homer Joides Resolution ocean drilling research ship berthed in Fumarole 0 Reinstall, White Island, Tony Hurst Wellington, Margaret Low Road damage at Mounsey Creek bridge, SH1 caused by Kaikoura Groundwater, Pupu springs, Unknown Earthquake 2016, William Ries A low-angle shot of the sharp edges of a glass skyscraper House teetering after a landslide, Maungaraki, Wellington, shrouded in fog, Patrick Tomasso Lloyd Homer
DELIVERING ON OUR VISION (pages 6–7) Christchurch earthquake damage clearance, Margaret Low Sea Caves; Jam Roll Bay; Tongaporutu; Taranaki Coast, GNS Science scientists with oil company representatives on the Lloyd Homer North Taranaki Coast, Peter King
STATEMENT OF CORE PURPOSE (pages 8–9) Symmetry in Energy, Ngatamariki Geothermal Power Station, Lake Tekapo, Tobias Keller - unsplash.com Taupō, Chris Sisarich - nzstory.govt.nz Gas Hydrate sample, IFM-GEOMAR OPERATING ENVIRONMENT (pages 10–13) Geothermally heated greenhouse at Wairakei, Kate Whitley Marble like mineral deposits, Unknown GOVERNMENT PRIORITIES (pages 14–15) Ion beam implanter National Isotope Centre, Margaret Low The Beehive, Parliament House, Wellington, Canterbury plains and Southern Alps blend into 3D topographic Image provided by MBIE data, GNS Science
SECTOR PRIORITIES (pages 16–21) Zealandia Map, GNS Science Ocean washing on the hilly sand shore at Cape Reinga, Hokonui Hills - strike ridges in the Southland Syncline, Mathew Waters - unsplash.com Lloyd Homer The road to Mt Cook, Quentin Leclercq - unsplash.com HORIZON SCANNING (pages 66–67) Benmore Power Station, Llyod Homer GPS measurement equipment on the top of the Southern Alps, Aline Peltier NATIONAL SCIENCE CHALLENGES (pages 22–23) PERFORMANCE MONITORING (pages 68–69) Colombo Street after Christchurch Earthquake 2011, Cliffs and lagoon at Castlepoint, Wairarapa, Lloyd Homer Margaret Low FINANCIAL FORECASTING (pages 70–73) NATURAL HAZARDS RESEARCH PLATFORM (pages 24–25) Waiau Falls, Coramandel, Lloyd Homer Crater on White Island (Whakaari) Volcano, Bay of Plenty, Putangirua Stream, Te Kopi, Lloyd Homer Lloyd Homer ACCOUNTING POLICIES (page 74–77) IMPLEMENTING VISION MĀTAURANGA (pages 26–29) Money, Public Access - negativespace.co Meeting House, Waitangi, Unknown Sweet corn booth at Whakarewarewa Village, Margaret Low Piako River, Unknown Awahou Stream, Kaitiaki, Unknown Tirohia, Unknown Maori Cape, Unknown
Principal Location Other Locations
GNS Science National Isotope Centre Dunedin Research Centre Wairakei Research Centre 1 Fairway Drive, Avalon 30 Gracefield Road 764 Cumberland Street 114 Karetoto Road Lower Hutt 5010 Lower Hutt 5010 Dunedin 9016 Wairakei 3377 PO Box 30368 PO Box 31312 Private Bag 1930 Private Bag 2000 Lower Hutt 5040 Lower Hutt 5040 Dunedin 9054 Taupo 3352 New Zealand New Zealand New Zealand New Zealand T +64-4-570 1444 T +64-4-570 1444 T +64-3-477 4050 T +64-7-374 8211 F +64-4-570 4600 F +64-4-570 4657 F +64-3-477 5232 F +64-7-374 8199