Capital Controls
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Mr. Mayer AP Macroeconomics
Mr. McFarling AP Macroeconomics The Balance of Payments Balance of Payments • Measure of money inflows and outflows between the United States and the Rest of the World (ROW) – Inflows are referred to as CREDITS – Outflows are referred to as DEBITS • The Balance of Payments is divided into 3 accounts – Current Account – Capital/Financial Account – Official Reserves Account Double Entry Bookkeeping • Every transaction in the balance of payments is recorded twice in accordance with standard accounting practice. – Ex. U.S. manufacturer, John Deere, exports $50 million worth of farm equipment to Ireland. • A credit of $50 million to the current account ( - $50 million worth of farm equipment or physical assets) • A debit of $50 million to the capital/financial account ( + $50 million worth of Euros or financial assets) – Notice that the two transactions offset each other. Theoretically, the balance payments should always equal zero…Theoretically Double Entry Bookkeeping • Lucky for you, in AP Macroeconomics we only worry about the 1st half of the transaction. We simplify and see the export of farm equipment as a credit (inflow of $) to the current account. • Why then, did I mention double entry bookkeeping? – To illustrate my innate intelligence? – No – To help you understand that the current account and capital/financial account are intrinsically linked together and help balance each other? – Yes, that’s it! Current Account • Balance of Trade or Net Exports – Exports of Goods/Services – Import of Goods/Services – Exports create a credit to the balance of payments – Imports create a debit to the balance of payments • Net Foreign Income – Income earned by U.S. -
Austerity: the New Normal a Renewed Washington Consensus 2010-24
Initiative for Policy Dialogue (IPD) International Confederation of Trade Unions (ITUC) Public Services International (PSI) European Network on Debt and Development (EURODAD) The Bretton Woods Project (BWP) Austerity: The New Normal A Renewed Washington Consensus 2010-24 Isabel Ortiz Matthew Cummins Working Paper October 2019 First published: October 2019 © 2019 The authors. Published by: Initiative for Policy Dialogue, New York – www.policydialogue.org International Confederation of Trade Unions (ITUC) – https://www.ituc-csi.org/ Public Services International (PSI) – https://publicservices.international/ European Network on Debt and Development (EURODAD) https://eurodad.org/ The Bretton Woods Project (BWP) – https://www.brettonwoodsproject.org/ Disclaimer: The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the authors. JEL Classification: H5, H12, O23, H5, I3, J3 Keywords: public expenditures, fiscal consolidation, austerity, adjustment, recovery, macroeconomic policy, wage bill, subsidies, pension reform, social security reform, labor reform, social protection, VAT, privatization, public-private partnerships, social impacts. Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 5 1. Introduction: A Story Worth Telling ................................................................................................ 8 2. Global Expenditure Trends, 2005-2024 ......................................................................................... -
Capital Controls and Foreign Exchange Policy
WORKING PAPER SERIES NO 1415 / FEBRUARY 2012 CAPITAL CONTROLS AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE POLICY by Marcel Fratzscher In 2012 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €50 banknote. NOTE: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily refl ect those of the ECB. Acknowledgements Prepared for the 15th Annual Conference of the Banco Central de Chile on “Capital Mobility and Monetary Policy”. I am grateful to Norman Loayza, my discussant, and conference participants for comments and discussions, and Bogdan Bogdanov for excellent help with the data preparation. Views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily refl ect those of the European Central Bank. Marcel Fratzscher at European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; e-mail: [email protected] © European Central Bank, 2012 Address Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Internet http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 All rights reserved. ISSN 1725-2806 (online) Any reproduction, publication and reprint in the form of a different publication, whether printed or produced electronically, in whole or in part, is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the ECB or the authors. This paper can be downloaded without charge from http://www.ecb.europa.eu or from the Social Science Research Network electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1991084. -
The Real Effects of Capital Control Taxes: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment
The Real Effects of Capital Control Taxes: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment Laura Alfaro Anusha Chari Fabio Kanczuk Working Paper 15-016 February 16, 2016 Copyright © 2014, 2016 by Laura Alfaro, Anusha Chari, and Fabio Kanczuk Working papers are in draft form. This working paper is distributed for purposes of comment and discussion only. It may not be reproduced without permission of the copyright holder. Copies of working papers are available from the author. The Real Effects of Capital Control Taxes: Firm-Level Evidence from a Policy Experiment Laura Alfaro* Anusha Chari** Fabio Kanczuk*** Harvard Business School University of North Carolina University of Sao Paulo and NBER Chapel Hill and NBER February 2016 Emerging-market governments adopted capital control taxes to manage the massive surge in foreign capital inflows in aftermath of the global financial crisis. Theory suggests that the imposition of capital controls can drive up the cost of capital and curb investment. This paper evaluates the effects of capital controls on firm-level stock returns and real investment using data from Brazil. On average, there is a statistically significant drop in cumulative abnormal returns consistent with an increase in the cost of capital for Brazilian firms following capital control announcements. The results suggest significant variation across firms and financial instruments. Large firms and the largest exporting firms appear less negatively affected compared to external- finance-dependent firms, and capital controls on equity inflows have a more negative announcement effect on equity returns than those on debt inflows. Real investment falls in the three years following the controls. -
Addressing Causality in the Effect of Capital Account Liberalization on Growth
Addressing Causality in the Effect of Capital Account Liberalization on Growth Adam Honig* Amherst College, Amherst, MA 01002 ______________________________________________________________________________ Abstract Evidence supporting the positive effects of capital account liberalization on growth is mixed at best. Even after conditioning on the quality of domestic financial institutions, a significant number of studies still find no effect. One possible explanation is reverse causation. If low growth countries liberalize in order to spur growth, the observed correlation between growth and liberalization will underestimate the impact of capital account openness. To eliminate this bias, I instrument capital account liberalization with the average level of openness of other countries to capture the “fad” element in financial liberalization. IV estimates indicate a significant positive effect of liberalization on growth, confirming the predictions of economic theory. _________ * Correspondence: 315 Converse Hall, Amherst College, Amherst, MA 01002-5000. Phone: (413) 542-5032. Fax: (413) 542-2090. Email: [email protected] JEL Classification: F43; O43 Keyword(s): Capital account liberalization; growth ______________________________________________________________________________ 1. Introduction The effect of capital account liberalization on economic growth has received considerable attention, due in part to the potential welfare-enhancing effects for developing countries and emerging markets. The benefits of capital mobility are clear: a more efficient allocation of resources, including an additional source of funding for domestic investment projects in poorer countries with low savings, possibilities for risk diversification, and the promotion of financial development.1 The empirical evidence on the positive effects of liberalization on growth, however, is mixed at best.2 One explanation is an increased probability that countries will experience financial crises when they open up their financial markets to foreign capital. -
Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis – the Case of Central Eastern European Countries
Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis – The Case of Central Eastern European Countries Malgorzata Sulimierska Economic Department, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1-9RH, England E-mail: [email protected] Abstract The dissertation investigates if Central and Eastern European countries with unregulated capital flows are more vulnerable to currency crises. In order to answer this question properly the paper considers two lines of analysis: single-country and multi-country. Single –country studies look into three cases: Russia, Poland and Latvia. The multi-country analysis is the simple adaptation of Glick, Guo and Hutchison’s probit panel model (2004). The results suggest that countries with liberalized capital accounts experience a lower likelihood of currency crises. Moreover, the information from case studies pointed that the speed and sequence of the CAL process needs to be adequate for the country development. Keywords currency crises, capital account liberalization, exchange rate CONTENTS INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. 3 CHAPTER I. The theoretical link between Capital Account Liberalization and 6 Currency Crisis episodes .……………………………………………….. 1.1. Capital Account Liberalization…………… ………………………………………... 6 1.1.1. Capital flows......................................................................................................... 6 1.1.2. Capital controls.................................................................................................... -
Capital Controls: an Evaluation
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences Volume Author/Editor: Sebastian Edwards, editor Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-18497-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/edwa06-1 Conference Date: December 16-18, 2004 Publication Date: May 2007 Title: Capital Controls: An Evaluation Author: Nicolas Magud, Carmen M. Reinhart URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c0157 14 Capital Controls An Evaluation Nicolas Magud and Carmen M. Reinhart 14.1 Introduction The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious issues that make it difficult, if not impossible, to compare across theoretical and empirical studies. We dub these apples-to-oranges problems, and they are as follows. First, there is no unified theoretical framework (say, as in the currency crisis literature) to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls. Second, there is significant heterogeneity across countries and time in the capital control measures implemented. Third, there are mul- tiple definitions of what constitutes success (capital controls are a single policy instrument—but there are many policy objectives). Fourth, the em- pirical studies lack a common methodology and are furthermore signifi- cantly overweighted by the two poster children—Chile and Malaysia. Our goal in this paper is to find a common ground among the noncompa- rabilities in the existing literature. Of course, there is usually a level of gener- ality that is sufficiently encompassing. After all, an apples-to-oranges prob- lem can be solved by calling everything fruit. -
Lessons from Asia's Experiences with Sudden Capital Flows
Lessons from Asia’s Experiences with Sudden Capital Flows Final Report Prepared for the Korean Institute of Finance (On behalf of the ASEAN+3 Research Group) Fiscal Policy Research Institute, Thailand February 2011 Table of Content s Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1. Objectives of the Study ………………………………………………………………1-3 Z 1.2. Scope of the Study …………………………………………………………………...1-4 1.3. Organization of the Study ……………………………………………………………1-7 Chapter 2 Literature reviews 2.1. Capital Inflows: Policy Responses ……………………………………………..…..2-4 2.2. Capital Outflows: Policy Responses……………………………………….……...2-13 Chapter 3 The recent experiences of rapid capital flows in ASEAN+3 countries 3.1. Empirical Evidence of the Types and Magnitudes of Capital Flows in ASEAN+3 Countries…………………………………………………..…………………………..3-1 3.2. Analysis of the outcome of rapid capital flows…………………….….………..3-10 Table of Contents ( c o n t i n u e d ) Chapter 4 Policies and measures in response to capital flows 4.1 Capital Controls on Short-Term Inflows………..……………………..……………4-1 Z 4.2 Capital Controls on Outflows… ………………………………..………………….4-36 Chapter 5 Policy stances going forward 5.1 Challenges Ahead ……………………………………………………..………….…5-2 5.2 Policy Recommendations……………………………………………....……………5-5 References ………………………………………………………………………………...…R-1 C h a p t e r 1 INTRODUCTION Economic growth in many Asian countries has coincided with economic liberalization, especially in the financial sector. As capital inflows to the region increased, Asian countries have been able to take advantage of them as a source of growth. Doing so, however, has also rendered these countries more vulnerable to external financial shocks. From the early years of the 21st century, low interest rates in the major developed countries, such as the United Stated and Japan, led to a surge in international liquidity. -
From Austerity to Expansion? Consolidation, Budget Surpluses, and the Decline of Fiscal Capacity
MPIfG Discussion Paper 13/16 From Austerity to Expansion? Consolidation, Budget Surpluses, and the Decline of Fiscal Capacity Lukas Haffert and Philip Mehrtens MPIfG Discussion Paper MPIfG Discussion Paper Lukas Haffert and Philip Mehrtens From Austerity to Expansion? Consolidation, Budget Surpluses, and the Decline of Fiscal Capacity MPIfG Discussion Paper 13/16 Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung, Köln Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne December 2013 MPIfG Discussion Paper ISSN 0944-2073 (Print) ISSN 1864-4325 (Internet) © 2013 by the authors Lukas Haffert and Philip Mehrtens are researchers at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, Cologne. [email protected] [email protected] Downloads www.mpifg.de Go to Publications / Discussion Papers Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies Paulstr. 3 | 50676 Cologne | Germany Tel. +49 221 2767-0 Fax +49 221 2767-555 www.mpifg.de [email protected] Haffert/Mehrtens: From Austerity to Expansion? iii Abstract In the wake of the financial crisis, most developed countries have entered a period of prolonged budgetary austerity. While the success of austerity programs is still unclear, it is also an open question what success would mean for activist government in the long run. This paper rejects the progressive belief that successful fiscal consolidation will lead to a strengthening of fiscal capacity, arguing that consolidations transform the political context in which fiscal policy is made. By analyzing the evolution of public expenditure in six countries with sustained budget surpluses, it shows that while surpluses were mostly achieved through expenditure cuts, they were predominantly used for cutting taxes. -
The Determination of Capital Controls: Which Role Do Exchange Rate Regimes Play?
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong Working Paper The determination of capital controls: Which role do exchange rate regimes play? ZEI Working Paper, No. B 08-2003 Provided in Cooperation with: ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn Suggested Citation: von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong (2003) : The determination of capital controls: Which role do exchange rate regimes play?, ZEI Working Paper, No. B 08-2003, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Zentrum für Europäische Integrationsforschung (ZEI), Bonn This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/39557 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under -
Low Altruism, Austerity, and Aversion to Default: Are Countries Converging to the Natural Debt Limit?
Low Altruism, Austerity, and Aversion to Default: Are Countries Converging to the Natural Debt Limit? By Henning Bohn* University of California Santa Barbara and CESifo network December 2013 Abstract Democracies around the world are making promises to the old at the expense of future generations. I interpret this as reflecting low altruism—a discount rate on children’s utility greater than the world interest rate—and I examine the implications in a small open economy with overlapping generations. A focus is on the public sector: The model includes public capital in production and public education as determinant of human capital. I examine to what extent both are crowded out by spending on debt and retiree entitlements. In the model, altruism towards children determines bequests, government debt, and the time-path of consumption. Altruism towards parents influences incentives to default. If altruism is low, voters demand fiscal policies that extract substantial resources from future generations. Public debt rises until debt service requires maximum taxes forever, and an era of austerity ensues: investment in human capital declines to a lower bound, and reduced human capital discourages investment in private and public capital. The threat of default enters as a constraint that may protect future generations. * Professor of Economics, UCSB, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, and CESifo network. Phone: (805)-893-4532. E-mail: [email protected]. Home page: http://econ.ucsb.edu/~bohn. Key words: Government debt, overlapping generations, altruism, default. JEL codes: H63, F34. 1. Introduction This paper is about the efficient exploitation of future generations, and why low altruism must lead to either persistent austerity, a debt crisis, or austerity followed by a debt crisis. -
The Nuances of Capital Controls in Economic Development: Argentina and Chile
Global Tides Volume 14 Article 8 4-22-2020 The Nuances of Capital Controls in Economic Development: Argentina and Chile Reagan A. Shane Pepperdine University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/globaltides Part of the Growth and Development Commons, International Economics Commons, Latin American Studies Commons, and the Political Economy Commons Recommended Citation Shane, Reagan A. (2020) "The Nuances of Capital Controls in Economic Development: Argentina and Chile," Global Tides: Vol. 14 , Article 8. Available at: https://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/globaltides/vol14/iss1/8 This International Studies and Languages is brought to you for free and open access by the Seaver College at Pepperdine Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Global Tides by an authorized editor of Pepperdine Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected], [email protected]. Shane: Capital Controls in Economic Development: Argentina and Chile Introduction In the last four years, Argentina has seen both a liberalization of and tightening of monetary and fiscal policy as the economy itself has fluctuated. When Mauricio Macri assumed the presidency in 2015, he began liberalizing the economy and pursuing free market policies. However, over time the administration has been forced to turn back to old policies, reinstating currency and capital controls in an attempt to stabilize the economy “after the government failed to stem heavy investment outflows...to shore up its tumbling currency” (Hunnicutt, 2019). The case of Argentina, especially when compared with that of its neighbor Chile, highlights an interesting component of economic development debates: capital controls.