Government of Kenya

THE 2020 LONG RAINS SEASON ASSESSMENT REPORT

Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)

Collaborative report of the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG): Ministries of Devolution and ASALs; Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries; Water and Irrigation; Health; and Education, Science and Technology; Regional Pastoral Livelihoods Resilience Project (RPLRP), National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), WFP, FEWS NET, UNICEF, FAO, World Vision, ACF, and Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASAL) County Steering Groups (CSGs): with financial support from the Government of Kenya (NDMA), WFP, UNICEF and partners.

August 2020

Contents Acronyms ...... 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 4 1.0 Introduction ...... 18 1.1 Assessment Coverage and Objectives ...... 18 1.2 Methodological Approach ...... 18 2.0 Food and Nutrition Security Analysis by Livelihood Cluster ...... 19 2.1 The Pastoral North-West Livelihood Cluster ...... 19 2.2 The Pastoral North-East Livelihood Cluster ...... 28 2.3 The Agro Pastoral Livelihood Cluster (Nelson) ...... 39 2.5 The Coastal Marginal Agricultural Livelihood Cluster ...... 60 3.0 Food Security Prognosis ...... 72 3.1 Assumptions ...... 72 3.2 Food security Prognosis (September 2020 to February 2021) ...... 73 4.0 Proposed Sectoral Interventions...... 75 4.1 Agriculture Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) ...... 75 4.2 Livestock Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) ...... 75 4.3 Water Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) ...... 76 4.4 Health and Nutrition Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) ...... 76 4.5 Education Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) ...... 76 4.6 Peace and Security Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) 77 4.7 Food Assistance Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) .... 77

Acronyms

CBPP Contagious Bovine Pleuro-pneumonia CCPP Contagious Caprine Pleuro-pneumonia CSG County Steering Group CSI Coping Strategy Index CSMP Community School Meals Programme ECD Early Childhood Development ESMP Expanded School Meals Programme FEWSNET Famine Early Warning System Network FMD Foot and Mouth Disease FNSA Food and Nutrition Security Assessment GAM Global Acute Malnutrition HGSMP Home Grown School Meals Programme IPC Integrated Phase Classification KFSSG Kenya Food Security Steering Group KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics LSD Lumpy Skin Disease LTA Long-Term Average MAM Moderate Acute Malnutrition MUAC Mid-Upper Arm Circumference NDMA National Drought Management Authority PPR Peste des Petits Ruminants RSMP Regular School Meals Programme SAM Severe Acute Malnutrition SDA State Department of Agriculture TLU Tropical Livestock Unit ToT Terms of Trade URTI Upper Respiratory Tract Infection WFP World Food Programme WHZ Weight for Height Z-score

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

I. Introduction The Kenya Food and Nutrition Security Assessment (FNSA) is a multi-agency, multi-sectoral exercise led by the government of Kenya, and is conducted in 23 arid and semi-arid (ASAL) counties. The assessment is carried out by the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) in collaboration with the respective County Steering Groups (CSGs). The KFSSG is a multi- agency body comprised of government departments, UN agencies and NGOs concerned with food and nutrition security and is chaired by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and co-chaired by the World Food Programme. Food security/insecurity in the country is highly dependent of rainfall. Given that the rainfall is bimodal in the ASAL counties, the assessments are conducted bi-annually, after the short rains of October to December and the long rains of March to May. The 2020 Long Rains Assessment was conducted between 14th July and 15th August 2020.

II. Objective The main objective of the assessment was to determine the impacts of the 2020 long rains on food and nutrition security in 23 ASAL counties. The assessment also considered the cumulative effects of previous seasons and impacts of other shocks and hazards including COVID-19 pandemic on food security.

III. Methodology The food security/insecurity analysis focused on acute food insecurity, but also considered other chronic issues that had direct impacts on food security. The assessment was centred on the four pillars of food security: food availability, food access, utilization and stability. The contributing factors and outcomes and their effects on the key sectors of agriculture, livestock, water, health and nutrition, education, peace and security, and markets and trade were also considered. The assessment also identified interventions to address the issues arising in each sector.

The assessment covered the 23 counties that comprise the arid and semi-arid region of Kenya, and which are generally the most food insecure given their levels of aridity and vulnerability. The area covers approximately 80 percent of Kenya’s landmass, and for the purposes of the assessment is classified into various livelihood zones grouped into five clusters; Pastoral North- West, comprising Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit; Pastoral North-East, comprising Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River and Mandera; South-East Marginal Agriculture, comprised of Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka Nithi, Embu, and Meru; Coastal Marginal Agriculture, comprising Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta and Lamu; and the Agro-pastoral cluster of Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, West Pokot, Laikipia and the northern part of Nyeri county (Kieni sub-county). The main livelihood activities in these clusters are Pastoralism, Agro-pastoralism, Mixed Farming, Marginal Mixed Farming and some Irrigated Cropping, and these form the unit of analysis.

The assessment involved the collection of both primary and secondary data. The principal sources were: (i) the NDMA’s drought early warning and monitoring system; (ii) data collected from the relevant sectors at county and sub-county level; (iii) community interviews and market interviews using focus group discussions and trader interviews; (iv) secondary data from nutrition surveys (SMART surveys); (v) field observations during transect drives; and (vi) agro-climatic data from FEWS NET.

The Acute Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC Version 3) was used for the analysis. The IPC is a standard global tool for classifying the severity of food insecurity and ensures that best practice is being applied. IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis was also carried out to understand both the food and non-food causes of malnutrition.

IV. Drivers of Food and Nutrition Security

Rainfall Performance The 2020 March to May long rains was mostly above average and followed the above average 2019 October to December short rains. The rainfall onset was 1 - 2 dekads early across most of the country however was 1-2 dekads late in parts of Narok, Mandera and Kilifi but were 3 – 4 dekads late in northern Turkana. The long rains were mostly above average ranging from 141 – 200 percent of the 30 – year average across most of the country and was 201 – 350 percent in parts of Samburu, Turkana and localized parts of Laikipia, Isiolo, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, Meru and Kitui. However, the rainfall ranged between 91 – 140 percent of normal in Lamu county and parts of Garissa, Kilifi, Figure 1.1: October to December short rains as a percent of Mandera, Turkana, Marsabit, Kitui, normal Migori, Siaya and Tana River.

The rains were well distributed spatially across the country but temporal distribution was mostly mixed. In Narok and Nyeri (Kieni), the rains ceased in late June compared to late May normally while Samburu, Turkana, West Pokot, Kilifi, Laikipia, West Pokot counties continued to receive off-season rains from up to June and July. However, early cessation of the rains was experienced from late April to early May compared to the normal cessation that occurs from early to late May in Isiolo, Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru (Meru North), Tana River and Wajir counties.

The COVID – 19 Pandemic On March 13th, 2020, the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Kenya. Following the confirmation of the first case, various measures were put in place in March and April. The Public Health Act was invoked which involved travel restrictions for people arriving from and non-Kenyans and quarantine for travellers, closure of education institutions, encouragement of organizations and companies to let staff work from home and the encouragement of cashless transactions. Other notable restrictions put in place were the enforcement of social distancing measures including public service vehicles (PSVs) ordered to carry only a 60 percent capacity, restaurants were allowed only to offer takeaway services and suspension of religious gatherings including church and mosque activities. A nationwide daily 1900hrs-0500hrs curfew was put in place and international flights suspended. Several tax relief measures announced including

reduction of Value Added Tax (VAT) and income tax among other measures. In April, a cessation of all movement, by road, air and rail, into and out of the Nairobi Metropolitan area was put in place and shortly followed by Kilifi, Kwale and Mombasa and later on Mandera. Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps were also declared containment zones. To contain further infection from cross-border movement but keep necessary movement of essential goods such as staple food commodities, mandatory testing of truck drivers at all border crossing points is required.

The pandemic and related impacts from these control measures slowed the country’s economic growth and significantly affected different sectors including health, tourism and hospitality, transport, agriculture, horticulture, manufacturing among others. Household food security has been significantly affected mostly due to reduced income resulting from a slowdown in economic activities resulting in reduced work hours and opportunities. Market disruptions together with a slowdown in the supply chain resulted in increases in staple food commodities as traders sought to cover increased marketing costs and cushion themselves from these uncertainties. Since then however, the cessation of movement directive was lifted and the ban on international travel has been lifted. The measures still in place include; the nightly 2100 – 0400 hrs curfew, mandatory wearing of masks, social distancing measures including the reduced capacity in PSVs, mandatory testing for truck drivers at border crossings, and Dadaab and Kakuma refugee camps containment zones. As at the end of July, according to the Ministry of Health, there were 19,913 confirmed cases, 8,121 and 325 fatalities with all counties reporting cases except Samburu County.

Floods In April, the excess rains resulted in flooding across 36 of the 47 counties and according to the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) and the Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), the flooding resulted in various parts of the country that resulted in 237 fatalities and displaced over 18,000 households and affected 160,000 household. The flooding caused rising levels of more than two meters in Lake Victoria, a situation that was last experienced in 1960 – 1964, 50 years ago. Mudslides were experienced in the Rift Valley, central and coastal regions, and swelling of rivers experienced across the country. This resulted in damage to property and infrastructure including farms, houses, roads, schools, bridges, health facilities and toilets. The Government and humanitarian partners including the United Nations and the KRCS in addition to carrying out rapid flood assessments, provided humanitarian assistance to the affected households by providing food, water, shelter, hygiene and dignity kits, with an addition of hand sanitizer and face masks to prevent COVID-19 transmission, distributed to affected people in different parts of the country.

V. Other shocks and hazards

Desert Locust invasions Desert locust invasions were experienced in some parts of the country that were part of the initial invasion that took place when the desert locusts first came into the country in December 2019. Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, West Pokot and Tana River counties all reported desert locust invasions that amounted to about 1,000,000 hectares of cropland and rangeland. However, in other counties the impact on crop and forage was minimal. Efforts to control the desert locusts continue spearheaded by the government of Kenya, the food and agriculture organization of the United Nations (FAO) and other partners have seen at least 160,000

hectares sprayed across the country. Constraints to these efforts have included the constant movement of the locust swarms which have made getting a GPS location fix difficult to enable spraying, rugged terrain in some areas where vehicles and aircraft were unable to access and insecurity that restricted physical access to these areas. According to FAO, the budget for surveillance and control of 32.1 million USD is funded up to 77 percent and the immature locust swarms left over are expected to mature during the October to December short rains season.

Conflict and Insecurity In Wajir, there were cases of resource-based conflict in areas bordering Marsabit County, with reports of at least nine fatalities that resulted in displacement of 470 households mainly women and children that had migrated to Marsabit back to Wajir and were hosted Basir IDP Camp in Eldas sub-county. A series of peace meetings organized by the national and county government and partners were organized to quell the hostilities. In Marsabit, inter-tribal and resource-based conflicts, and highway banditry attacks were reported across all sub-counties and resulted in 33 fatalities, displacement of over 90 households, and the loss of over 900 heads of livestock. In Garissa, threat of insecurity is mainly from terror attacks emanating from Somalia. While there have been resource-based conflicts on the Garissa – Isiolo border resulting in human and livestock deaths. In Samburu, incidences of cattle rustling were reported in Samburu North sub county that have resulted in four human fatalities, the loss of livelihoods, and restricted access to water and forage resources. In Turkana, armed banditry and cattle rustling incidences were reported in Loima sub-county along the Kenya-Uganda border and Turkana West sub county resulting in losses of livestock.

VI. Summary of Key findings The number of people facing acute food insecurity declined to about 739,000 compared to 1.3 million recorded during 2019 short rains assessment. Approximately 43,000 people who were affected by floods, with limited assets and have their livelihoods constrained by insecurity and conflict are in Emergency Phase (IPC Phase 4) mainly from Mandera County with the rest in Crisis Phase (IPC Phase 3) and therefore require food assistance. The decline in numbers is attributed to further improvement in food security situation owing to the good performance of the long rains. However, the situation is likely to deteriorate slightly during the peak of

Figure 1.2: Trends of food insecure populations

September – October lean season with an estimated 790,000 likely to experience acute food insecurity.

The pastoral counties continue to experience improvement in food security situation despite the impact of locust and covid – 19 control measures. Pasture and browse regeneration was good with current condition being good to fair and is expected to last upto the onset of the short rains. Return trekking distances between grazing areas and water sources have declined and are 3 – 10km compared to normal of 5 – 15km. however, long trekking distances of over 25km was observed in parts of Moyale, North Horr and Laisamis in Marsabit County due to breakdown and salinity of some major boreholes. Most of the surface water sources recharged during the long rains season. However, high temperatures have contributed to rapid decline and drying in parts of Marsabit, Samburu and Tana River counties. Watering frequency currently is daily to alternate days compared to daily and every 2 – 3 days. Camels were watered once a week.

Milk production has remained stable and comparable to normal of 1- 5 litres per household per day. Consequently, milk consumption remained stable at 1 – 3 litres. Milk production is expected to increase as kidding and lambing were normal while cattle are currently in-calve and expected in October/November. Milk prices increased by 20 – 60 percent in the Fisheries Livelihood Zone in Turkana and in both the Agro-pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood of Marsabit

Figure 1.3: Comparative terms of trade in pastoral and agro pastoral counties counties as a result of scarcity brought about by below average production. The rest of the counties reported decline of between 10 and 20 percent in the milk prices. Stable and or low staple food prices coupled with increasing livestock prices across the pastoral counties have impacted positively on households purchasing power with current terms of trade of 4 – 10 percent above the five-year average in Mandera, Marsabit, Tana River and Wajir but were 20 – 46 percent above the five-year average in Garissa, Isiolo and Samburu. Minimal migration has been reported across the counties with most livestock within seasonal grazing areas as pasture is available and of good quality.

Household food security situation in the marginal agricultural areas continue to improve following good performance of the long rains and coupled with carryover stocks from the short rains season. In south-eastern marginal, maize production was 95 percent of long-term average and households have 37 percent of maize stock higher than long-term average. Similarly, Coastal marginal cluster experienced good rains with maize production increasing by 47 percent above the long-term average while household maize stocks are 93 percent of long-term average. Stable food prices are expected to continue as households have stocks to cushion them for the next 2-3 months thus impacting positively on household food security.

VII. Categories of Food Insecure Populations During the 2020 Food and Nutrition security assessment, the food security situation had shown stability with no major change from the analysis done in February according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) 1.

Currently, majority of the counties across the country within the analysed areas were classified to be in IPC phase 2 (stressed)2 according to the footnote definition. This is an overall improvement compared to the same time in 2019 when majority of the counties were classified in IPC phase 33. The observed stability in food security situation is a result of the two consecutive good season that have been experienced during the October – December 2019 short rains season and the current season of analysis March – May 2020. Despite the good rains, there has been an improving trend in the food security situation from the previous season, however due to the current COVID-19 pandemic, the government issued various guidelines

Figure 1.4: Current and projected national food security phase classification

1 IPC classification guides convergence of evidence by using generally accepted international standards and cut- offs. Phase 1 minimal; Households are able to meet essential food and non-food needs without engaging in atypical and unsustainable strategies to access food and income. 2 IPC Phase 2 Stressed Households have minimally adequate food consumption but are unable to afford some essential non-food expenditures without engaging in stress coping strategies. 3 IPC Phase 3; Households either Have food consumption gaps that are reflected by high or above-usual acute malnutrition or Are marginally able to meet minimum food needs but only by depleting essential livelihood assets or through crisis-

and measures to prevent the spread of the disease which led to some negative food security outcomes hence limiting enhanced food security improvements. The situation is not expected to have significant changes through October, after which the food security situation will highly depend on the performance of the short rains season (October – December 2020). Figure 1.4 indicates the phase classification in August 2020 and the projection through October 2020.

While stability or improvements were seen during the March to August period in the Mixed Farming Livelihoods across the counties, Marginal Agricultural, Agro pastoral and Pastoral Livelihood Zones showed little or no improvements especially in South East Marginal Agriculture Livelihood Zones including Kitui and Makueni showing a worsened food security situation from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) to the current Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and pastoral areas of Baringo, Laikipia Kajiado and Samburu counties remaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

VIII. Population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) The number of people estimated to be in the Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse are considered to be in need of immediate humanitarian assistance. The population across the 23 counties assessed was 739,000 this being an overall improvement from the 1.3 million recorded after the short rains in February 2020. All the counties recorded reduced numbers of people in phase three or worse except for Baringo where increased vulnerabilities was a result of the flooding that displaced several households and in Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Marsabit household access to food remained low against seasonal trends mostly due to high commodity prices at market level. The projected situation is not expected to have any drastic changes as the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse are projected to be 0.8 million by October during the onset of the short rains.

Within the arid counties which are predominantly pastoral livelihoods, Wajir and Mandera were classified to have the highest number of people in need of humanitarian assistance (over 100,000 each) followed by Turkana and Garissa as indicated in Table 1. In the semi-arid marginal agriculture counties, only Kilifi, Kwale and Lamu had populations in need of humanitarian assistance in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). However, the numbers had reduced compared to the previously recorded figures during the short rains season.

Table 1: Food Insecure Populations by County, September 2020 – February 2021 County County population Population in need of Population in need of (KNBS 2019 assistance after the 2019 assistance after the Census) SRA March – May 2020 LRA Turkana 926,976 139,000 93,000 Wajir 781,263 111,000 117,000 Mandera 867,457 130,000 130,000 Garissa 841,353 84,000 84,000 Marsabit 459,785 69,000 69,000 Samburu 310,327 47,000 31,000 Laikipia 268,262 26,000 0 West Pokot 621,241 51,000 0 Tana River 315,943 47,000 32,000 Isiolo 268,002 40,000 27,000 Kajiado 1,117,840 56,000 0 Baringo 666,763 33,000 33,000 Narok 1,157,873 0 0 Sub-total, Pastoral 7,551,115 833,000 616,000 Makueni 987,653 73,000 0

County County population Population in need of Population in need of (KNBS 2019 assistance after the 2019 assistance after the Census) SRA March – May 2020 LRA Kwale 866,820 78,000 43,000 Kilifi 1,453,787 80,000 73,000 Kitui 1,136,187 87,000 0 Taita Taveta 340,671 17,000 0 Embu (Mbeere) 272,357 27,000 0 Tharaka-Nithi (Tharaka) 133,595 40,000 0 Meru (North) 764,885 69,000 0 Nyeri (Kieni) 198,901 0 0 Lamu 143,920 14,000 7,000 Sub-total, Marginal 6,075,275 485,000 123,000 Agricultural Total 13,626,390 1,318,000 739,000

IX. National Nutrition Situation Summary According to integrated acute malnutrition phase classification (IPC-AMN), nutrition situation largely remained within the same phase across counties compared to the 2019 short rain season with major improvement compared to the same period last year (Figures 1, 2, 3 and 4). The stable nutrition situation is mainly attributed to a stable food security situation characterized by improved milk availability and consumption, availability of food stock at household level in agricultural areas and stable food prices across the counties. Other factors contributing to the stable nutrition situation include improved water availability, reduced return distance and waiting time at water sources for domestic use and favorable terms of trade. Though the nutrition situation is stable, malnutrition levels remain unacceptably high in arid with several arid areas reporting critical levels of acute malnutrition (IPC AMN Phase 4). This is attributed to poor infant and young child feeding practices and morbidities coupled with multiple shocks

Figure 1.5: Current and projected national nutrition situation

11 such as floods and locust invasion which have resulted to slow recovery from the effects of the 2019 drought more especially for the most vulnerable communities.

Pre-existing factors such as low literacy levels, limited livelihood assets and poverty expose the communities to persistently high levels of malnutrition. Nutrition situation is projected to remain within the same phase across the counties during the projection period (September to November 2020). However, there is need for close monitoring of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on livelihood sources especially in urban centers and the coping capacity of the health care system to ensure sustained availability of essential preventive services and treatment of acute malnutrition to mitigate the effects of the pandemic on food and nutrition situation. Overall, an estimated 531,005 children 6-59 months and 98,390 Pregnant and lactating women require treatment of acute malnutrition. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic that is affecting all counties in the country, caseload for children 6 to 59 months requiring treatment were calculated for all counties in the country to inform planning in the context of the pandemic.

Table 2: Number of Children 6 to 59 months and Pregnant and Lactating Women (PLW) Requiring Treatment of Acute Malnutrition Area Global acute Severe acute Moderate acute Pregnant and malnutrition malnutrition malnutrition Lactating women children 6-59 children 6- 59 Children 6-59 months months months Total Target Total Target Total Target Total Target caseloads Caseloads Caseloads caseloads ASAL 343,961 193,681 86,791 65,091 257,170 128,590 96,866 96,866 Urban 57,448 32,986 17,050 12,787 40,398 20,199 1524 1524 Non- 129,596 72,714 31,668 23,750 97,928 48,962 ASAL Grand 531,005 299,381 135,509 101,628 395,496 197,751 98,390 98,390 Total

COVID 19 Impacts on Food Security and Nutrition Situation All analysis areas have reported cases of COVID-19. Since the first case was reported in Kenya, the Ministry of Health issued several restrictive measures to curb the spread of the disease. The measures included “keeping physical distance” as well as stay home advice. The pandemic presented a major challenge with health care system rapidly shifting attention and priorities to the pandemic amidst limited understanding of the COVID-19 epidemiology at country and global level during the early stages of the pandemic. There has been huge interruption of operations across all levels – globally, country, community to individual level.

Boarder restrictions and other control measures such as closure of restaurants and curfew have led to loss of livelihoods mainly within the urban areas in the counties and may have affected food access. The pandemic has also interrupted learning and school meals programs which are a major source of nourishment for school going children in arid counties. The pandemic containment measures also interrupted market operations albeit for a short time as markets were temporally closed. Traded volumes were however below the long-term average across counties due to the impact of the pandemic on movement of people, livestock and goods.

COVID 19 restrictive measures have resulted in interruptions of health services and activities across all the Counties including cancellation of household-based surveys, planned integrated

outreaches and Malezi bora activities which were scheduled to take place in May. The pandemic period has also been characterized by fear and anxiety associated to COVID-19 testing and quarantine coupled with misinformation on service availability across health facilities and fear of contracting the disease at the health facility. Community-level activities such as Mother to mother support groups were also interrupted due to social gathering restriction advice. As such, there was a notable decline in vitamin A supplementation, immunization, growth monitoring, IMAM services as well as the number of clients seeking treatment services at health facilities in the months of April and May 2020. Outreach services have since been re-initiated with observance of infection prevention control (IPC) measures and alternative strategies such as use of community health strategy are being implemented to improve VAS program coverage and service continuity. A steady rise though slow of clients seeking services has been observed since May 2020 mainly attributed to community messaging on availability of essential services in the context of COVID-19.

Coordination mechanisms have been put in place across all the counties analyzed to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic though nutrition agenda in the management of cases especially in home isolation and care has not yet gained traction despite the overall understanding of the place of good nutrition in management of diseases including COVID-19. Training of health workers and community health volunteers has been scaled up across all the counties to build their capacity to respond to the pandemic while ensuring continuity of essential health services. WASH interventions were rapidly scaled up to respond to the pandemic with heightened sensitization on handwashing, use of sanitizers, water provision and installation of handwashing facilities in public spaces. This has resulted to improved handwashing practices and together with the factors discussed earlier could somewhat explain the lower cases reported in WASH related diseases such as diarrhea and upper respiratory infection.

Key proposed actions  Scale up community level health and nutrition services, including integration of nutrition within home-based care, in the face of rising Covid-19 cases to expand system capacity for nutrition service delivery.  Expand innovative approaches like m-health applications and family MUAC to ensure continued access to services while maintaining IPC (Infection Prevention and Control)  Close monitoring of the effects of COVID-19 on continuity of essential services and livelihoods to mitigate the potential impact on food and nutrition security.  Close monitoring of locust invasion and support risk communication and mitigation measures  Continue to advocate for national and county government allocation of resources to procure commodities for management of acute malnutrition  Continue to strengthen multi-sectoral linkages and coordination at all levels to address the underlying and basic causes of the persistently high levels of acute malnutrition

X. Crop Production Prospects The July 2020 Food and Crop Situation Report from the State Department for Crop Development (SDCD) indicates that the national food security situation remains stable. This is attributed to cumulative above average crop production of the short rains of 2019 and the long rains 2020. The estimated maize production for the 2020 long rains in the country is projected to be 35.8 million 90-kilogram bags which is 10-15 percent above the five-year average. In the marginal agricultural clusters maize production is projected to be average to above average except for parts of south-eastern cluster (Embu county, Machakos, Makueni) where production reduced by about 50 percent due to early cessation of rainfall. In Turkana

and Samburu, the above average rainfall resulted water logging leading to reduced production of maize, sorghum and beans by about 10-20 percent. The drought tolerant legumes such as pigeon green grams and cow peas production was below average to average across the marginal agriculture clusters. The available maize stock as at July is expected to last for the next 2-3 months in the country. The prices of most cereals are average or below-average due to increased stocks with households, regional imports and the gazetted imports outside the region of 4 million bags that started in June

XI. Food and Livestock Price Trends Across the country, the COVID-19 pandemic had significant impacts on market operations. In March and April, markets were closed for fumigation and were-reopened with new social distancing measures applied which meant less capacity for traders and new locations in a bid to curb the spread of COVID-19. Since then, there were incidences of short -lived closures of markets especially those close to border points because of reported COVID-19 cases or the fear of the pandemic itself. Other COVID-19 related control measures such as closure of borders, banning of international flights, putting in place of a nighttime curfew and cessation of movement in and out of Nairobi, Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi and Mandera counties had a significant effect on both staple food and livestock markets especially at the initial stages resulting in significant but short-lived price volatility and shortages in supply. However, a lasting impact on markets has been an increase in the prices of staple goods as a result of a premium put on by traders that acts as a cushion against uncertainty in the markets and a slowdown in the supply chain especially for cross-border trade where goods are taking longer to get to their destinations due to the restrictions at the border crossings that include mandatory testing for COVID-19 for all truck drivers seeking entry into the country. 6000 5500 2015-2019 Average 2019 2020 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500

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Nairobi Eldoret Kisumu Mombasa Figure 1.6: Maize prices in urban reference markets Maize prices were 8 – 20 percent above average in Tana River, Garissa and Mandera due to marketing costs as they are sourced from local source markets and are 10 and 20 percent above average in Eldoret and Nairobi respectively as demand remains high and due to a premium on the price by traders. They were however ranged from within average to 15 below average across the rest of the markets due to available local harvests in the marginal areas and cross border imports from Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia. In the urban markets of Kisumu and Mombasa, the maize prices were 10 and 15 percent below average respectively due to supplies from cross- border trade from Uganda and Tanzania respectively. Bean prices are within average in the coastal counties of Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Mombasa driven by local harvests and cross border

imports from Tanzania but are 8 – 19 percent above average in the marginal counties of Nyeri, Makueni and Kitui. However, in the urban markets of Kisumu and Eldoret bean prices are 85 – 88 percent due to limited supplies and high priced cross-border imports as a result of below average production across the region.

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Turkana Garissa Marsabit Mandera Figure 1.7: Goat prices in pastoral reference markets Goat prices across the pastoral areas were 7 – 42 percent above the five-year average driven by good body condition and a limited supply to the markets as livestock keepers aimed to restock their herds. These above average goat prices continue to provide household food access even in instances where staple food prices are above average.

XII. Food Security Prognosis Pastoral areas Rangeland resources are expected to last through October supporting livestock productivity except in some localized areas with livestock births expected in September increasing milk production. High goat prices will maintain household food access despite above average maize prices. Nutrition status is expected to remain stable but range from ‘Acceptable’ (GAM MUAC <5 percent) to ‘Critical’ (GAM MUAC 15-29.9 percent) in children under five years of age. Livestock migration is expected in areas affected by desert locusts and that experienced incomplete regeneration of rangeland resources. Through September, Narok, West Pokot counties and parts of Baringo, Samburu, Laikipia will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) while the rest of the pastoral areas are expected to remain in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase. However, some poor households with limited assets will be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) across these counties but remain below the area classification threshold while in Mandera flood affected households yet to recover and those affected by insecurity and conflict will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. In October, the below average October to December will drive short-lived but needed regeneration of rangeland resources maintaining average livestock productivity and above average goat prices will maintain at least average food access despite a persistence of high staple food prices. Remittances will remain low throughout the period because of COVID- 19 especially reduced income in urban households. From December, decreasing milk production and income from milk sales will necessitate reliance on other income sources such as firewood and charcoal sales, petty trade and casual labor. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) will persist in parts of Narok, West Pokot, Baringo and Laikipia. Parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Narok will likely deteriorate to Stressed from Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist across the rest of the areas with some poor households are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa, Marsabit,

Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo and Baringo counties. In Mandera, a number of households are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). Marginal Areas: Household food availability is expected to remain stable with stocks likely to last through November due to the recent mixed long rains harvests. Staple food prices are likely to remain average to below average supported by local harvests and cross-border imports through December maintaining household food access. Apart from parts of Nyeri (Kieni) and Meru North that are likely to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to sufficient food and income while Taita Taveta and the parts of Makueni, Kitui, Kilifi, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as food and income sources dwindle. The below average October to December short rains will limit crop production activities resulting in below average income from casual wage labor. The reduced household food access will however, be mitigated by average staple food prices from October driven by the unimodal areas harvests even as household stocks get depleted. Below average remittances from relatives in urban areas will reduce household income forcing households to employ coping strategies to meet their essential non-food needs. Acute malnutrition is expected to increase as household food stocks decline but is expected to remain within ‘Acceptable’ (GAM MUAC <5 percent) mitigated by milk consumption and consumption of short cycle crop harvests available from December though below average. Households are expected to meet their minimum food needs but will unlikely afford non-food needs due to below average income and be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) however parts of Nyeri (Kieni) and Meru (Meru North) will likely remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). The key factors to monitor over the next six months include;  COVID–19 trends, control and related impacts  Close monitoring of the effects of COVID-19 on continuity of essential services and livelihoods as cases continue to rise to mitigate its effect on food and nutrition situation.  Household food access particularly from the demand side stemming from reduced household income  National food stocks  Livestock disease outbreaks  Performance of forecasted below average 2020 October–December short rains  Control of remaining Desert locust swarms and possible resurgence in October

XIII. Options for response The table 3 below sets out the options for response by sector. All immediate, medium and long-term interventions should be anchored in the Ending Drought Emergencies Common Programme Framework.

Table 3: Summary of sectoral recommendations Sector Intervention Cost Cost Kshs(M) USD(M) Agriculture Pests and disease control, Provision of farm 918 9.18 inputs, Postharvest management and preservation, expansion of irrigation infrastructure and value addition

Livestock Livestock vaccination and disease 1270 12.7 surveillance, Pasture and fodder establishment and conservation, Livestock value addition and capacity building of pastoralists and restocking

Water Repair,rehabilitation, extension and 3950 39.5 maintenance of water structures and systems, Promotion of rain water harvesting and technology and Covid 19 response

Health Procure commodities for management of 1550 15.5 acute malnutrition, update contingency plans, Scale up community level health and nutrition services in the face of rising Covid- 19 cases, Close monitoring of the effects of COVID-19 and strengthen multisectoral linkages

Education Water provision and disposing of food in 5760 57.6 schools, Expansion of infrastructure in existing schools, recruitment additional ECDE teachers and implementation covid 19 guidelines

Food Assistance Build resilience to future shocks through 6000 60 asset creation, safety net programmes and market access programmes; food commodities and cash including associated costs for over 739,000 food insecure people in need of assistance for the next six months (September 2020 – February 2021)

Peace and Security Peace and dialogue meetings and cross 100 1 border initiatives

Total 19,548 195.48

1.0 Introduction

1.1 Assessment Coverage and Objectives The 2020 March to May long rains assessment was undertaken between 14th July and 15th August 2020 in the 23 ASAL counties by the government of Kenya through the Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG), in collaboration with the 23 county governments through their respective County Steering Groups (CSGs). The KFSSG is a multi-agency body comprising of key government departments, UN agencies and non-Governmental organizations all with a stake in food and nutrition security in the country. The KFSSG is chaired by the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and co-chaired by the World Food Programme while the CSGs are county level multi-sectoral and multi-agency group that coordinates food security related activities.

Objective The overall objective of the assessment was to determine the impacts of the 2020 long rains on food and nutrition security in 23 ASAL counties considering the cumulative effects of previous seasons and impacts of other shocks and hazards on food security. At the same time, the assessment also considered the impacts of COVID-19 on food security. The assessment was to also determine the impact of the season on food availability, access, utilization and their stability by evaluating the contributing factors and outcomes, and their impacts on agriculture, livestock, water, health and nutrition, education, peace and security, and markets and trade sectors. The recommended interventions are presented in this report.

1.2 Methodological Approach The seasonal assessments cover the arid and semi-arid region of the country comprising of 23 counties, which are generally the most food insecure and exhibit high levels of vulnerability and covers approximately 80 percent of Kenya’s landmass. The area covered by these counties is further classified into generalized livelihood zones which comprise of; Pastoral North West Livelihood cluster (Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit counties), Pastoral North East (Wajir, Garissa, Isiolo, Tana River and Mandera Counties), South East Marginal Agriculture Cluster (Kitui, Makueni, lower parts of Tharaka Nithi, and Embu counties and the Northern parts of Meru County). Other clusters include Coastal Marginal Agriculture (Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta and Lamu counties) and Agro Pastoral cluster (Baringo, Narok, Kajiado, West Pokot, Laikipia and northern part of Nyeri county- Kieni). The main livelihood activities across these include Pastoralism, Agro-pastoralism, Mixed Farming, Marginal Mixed Farming and some Irrigated Cropping, which formed the unit of analysis for this assessment.

This assessment included collection of secondary and primary data with varied data sources including; Data from NDMA sentinel sites, which is collected monthly using questionnaires, Data from the various government sectors (livestock, water, agriculture, education, health and nutrition) at the county and sub counties using checklists. Also included was data collected through community interviews and market interviews through focus group discussions and interviewing of traders respectively, drought early warning bulletins among others and field observations through transect drives. During the analysis, Acute Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC Version 3) protocols were used. The IPC is a standard global tool for classifying the severity of food insecurity, was used to analyze the severity, causes as well as reach a technical consensus on the food security situation.

2.0 Food and Nutrition Security Analysis by Livelihood Cluster

2.1 The Pastoral North-West Livelihood Cluster

2.1.1 Cluster Background Information The cluster comprises of Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit Counties and covers an area of 173,815.1 square kilometers with an estimated population of 1,697,088 million persons (KNBS Census, 2019). It has three main livelihood zones: pastoral all species (69 percent of the population), agro-pastoral (24 percent) and fishing/formal employment/business/petty trade (seven percent) as shown in Figure 2.1.

2.1.2 Current Drivers of Food Insecurity Figure 2.1: Pastoral Northwest cluster livelihood zones Rainfall Performance The onset of March to May 2020 long rains season was earlier than normal across the cluster occurring in the first dekad of March. The cluster predominantly received rainfall amounts of 141 - 200 percent with major parts of Turkana South, Turkana East, Loima and marginal pockets of Samburu County recorded amounts of 201 – 350 percent of normal.

Conflict/Insecurity The cluster experienced incidences of highway banditry in Samburu North Sub County and Laisamis Sub County in Marsabit County. Resource based and cattle rustling were also reported along the Kenya-Uganda border in Loima Sub County, and in Turkana West Sub County, Samburu North Sub County and Saku, Lasiamis, North Horr and Moyale Sub Counties in Marsabit County.

COVID-19 Pandemic The cluster reported 51 positive cases of COVID-19 with Turkana County reporting 43 cases in Turkana West, Turkana Central and Turkana South. Samburu County has eight COVID-19 cases reported in Maralal Town as at 4th August 2020.

Desert locusts Invasion Desert locusts invaded parts of the cluster destroying pasture, browse and crops. The most affected sites in Turkana County included; Turkana South, Loima and Turkana Central. In Marsabit County, the areas affected included Laisamis sub-county and North Horr sub-county while in Samburu County the hotspots were Elbarta, Nyiro Wards in the pastoral livelihood zone and in Angata Nanyukie Ward in the agro pastoral area.

Flooding Flash floods were reported across the cluster resulting in muddy and slippery rural roads hindering access to health facilities and markets. The flash flood displaced a total of 2,631 households in the cluster and occasioning fatalities of 302 and 1,500 livestock in Turkana and Marsabit counties respectively. In Turkana County, a total of 3,000 acres of irrigated land was destroyed in April and May 2020. Two human lives were lost in low-lying and riverine areas of Nkuronit and along river Ewaso Nyiro in Samburu County.

2.1.3 Current Food Security Situation The cluster Integrated Food Security Phase Classification is Stressed Phase (IPC Phase 2). Maize stocks held by farmers are 40 percent above long-term average in Samburu County, 61 percent of the long-term average in Turkana and 15 percent below long-term average in Marsabit County. Forage condition was good across the cluster save for localized areas of Moyale sub-county, Laisamis sub-county and North Horr sub-county with fair to poor. The Fisheries livelihood zone in Turkana County and pockets of Wamba West, Waso and Ndoto wards in Samburu County also had fair to poor pasture condition. Majority of households in Samburu and Marsabit had acceptable food consumption score ranging between 64.3 percent and 68.9 percent. In Turkana County, 33 percent of household had poor food consumption scores while 36 percent had borderline. The proportion of children under-five at risk of malnutrition was 16.1 - 16.5 percent except in Samburu County with prevalence of 26.7 percent.

2.1.4 Food Security Trends Indicator Short Rains Assessment, Long Rains Assessment, February 2020 July 2020 Food security phase Stressed (IPC Phase 2) across all The overall phase classification for the the livelihood in the cluster. cluster is Stressed Percent maize stocks at 58 percent of LTA 95 percent of LTA household level Livestock body condition Good for all species in all Good for all species save for the fisheries livelihood zones across the cluster livelihood zone where condition of livestock is fair Distance to grazing (km) 5 3 - 5

Water consumption 25 lpppd 10 – 30 lppd

Terms of trade 68 65.8

Coping strategy index 13.6 13.7

Maize prices (Kshs) per kg 51 57

Food consumption score Acceptable 63 Acceptable 54.7 Borderline 30 Borderline 32.2 Poor 7 Poor 13.1

2.1.5 Impact of Drivers on Food and Nutrition Security

2.2.5.1 Crop Production

Rain-fed crop production The cluster mainly depends on long rains for crop production, which contributes up to 80 percent of total annual food production in Samburu and Turkana counties. In Marsabit, the long rains contribute about 30 percent of the total annual crop production. The area under maize, sorghum and beans was 87, 77 and 93 percent respectively of the LTA. The decrease was attributed to early onset of rains in Marsabit which got farmers unprepared, high cost of labour and reduced land mechanization.

Area planted for beans was higher than the LTA by 38 percent since Samburu County increased its production by 180 percent as a consequence of availability of farm tractors, subsidized

20 ploughing rates, provision of beans certified seeds and consistently above average rains throughout the season.

Rain fed Crop Production Crop Area planted Long term average area 2020 long rains Long term average during 2020 long planted during the long season production during the rains season (Ha) rains season (Ha) production long rains season Maize 10,532 12,120 77,210 102,565 Sorghum 4,922 6,390 39,376 69,453 Beans 4,220 4,560 4,600 7,150

Irrigated Agriculture The main crops grown under irrigation were maize, sorghum and cowpeas. Other crops grown included kales, tomatoes, cabbages and spinach that are grown on small scale in Marsabit and Samburu through micro-irrigation. The area under maize, sorghum and cowpeas was 79, 50 and 78 percent of the LTA. The decrease was attributed to dilapidated irrigation infrastructure and delay in provision of farm inputs to farmers who rely on support. COVID-19 regulations that restrict crowding and involvement of older people in the schemes hampered farmers’ group activities in the communal irrigation schemes.

Irrigated Crop Production Crop Area planted during Long term average 2020 long rains Long term average 2020 long rains area planted during season production production during season (Ha) the long rains season (90 kg bags) the long rains season (Ha) (90 kg) Maize 2,610 3,308 39,150 65,435 Sorghum 2,445 4,882 19,560 50,582 Cowpeas 57 73 570 970

Cereal stocks The main staple food stocks are maize, sorghum and rice. The maize stock held by households and millers were 98 and 98 percent respectively and was comparable to the LTA stocks while stocks held by traders was 87 percent of the LTA. The total maize stock was 93 percent of the LTA and this was attributed to increase in production in Samburu County.

Cereal stocks in the cluster Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum held by Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 28,300 28,857 1,000 1,800 9,760 4,220 Traders 33,042 37,807 5,660 6,400 12,273 11,723 Millers 6,618 6,698 0 0 415 3,956 Total 67,960 73,362 6,660 8,200 22,448 19,899

2.1.5.2 Livestock Production Livestock production contributes about 82 - 91 and 25 - 60 percent to cash income in the Pastoral and Agro Pastoral livelihood zone respectively. The main livestock species kept in the cluster include goats, sheep, camels and cattle. The pasture condition was good to fair across all the livelihood zones compared with fair to poor normally. Browse condition was good in all the livelihood zones in the cluster which is normal at this time of the year. The good pasture and browse condition is due to good performance of the long rains and off season rainfall in the months of June and July 2020 which supported regeneration of pasture and browse.

Pasture and browse situation Livelihood Pasture condition Browse condition zone Current Normally Projected Current Normally Projected Duration to Duration to last (Months) last (Months) Pastoral Good to Fair Fair to poor 3 - 4 Good Good 2 - 6 Agro pastoral Good Good-Fair 3 - 6 Good Good 3 - 6 Fishing Fair Fair 1 Fair Fair 2

The livestock body condition was good across all the livelihood zones in the cluster compared with good to fair condition normally. The improved body condition is driven by good forage condition and availability of water as a result of enhance rainfall performance for the last two consecutive seasons. During the August to October dry period, the livestock body condition is expected to deteriorate but still be within the good-fair condition which is normal.

Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel zone Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Pastoral Good Good to Good Good to Good Good to Good Good to Fair Fair Fair Fair Agro Good Good to Good Good to Good Good to Good Good to pastoral fair Fair Fair Fair Fishing Fair Good Fair Good Fair Good Fair Good

Tropical Livestock Units (TLU) The TLUs among poor income households in the pastoral livelihood zone remained stable (2- 8). However, TLUs increased by 30 percent among the poor income households in the agro pastoral livelihood zone but declined by 20 percent in the fisheries livelihood zone. In the middle-income households, TLUs have declined by 39.2, 15 and 40 percent respectively in the pastoral, agro pastoral and fisheries livelihood zones. This decline in TLUs is attributed to minimal recovery in livestock herds as a result of 2017 extreme drought that led to massive livestock deaths and increased livestock reproduction intervals. However, the situation is expected to improve with the good livestock body condition and high kidding and lambing across all the livelihood zones due to improved range land resources and availability of water.

TLUs by Livelihood Zones Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households

Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 2-8 3-7 5-12 8 -20 Agro pastoral 2-6 2-4 5-12 5-15 Fisheries 3 5 6 10

Milk production in the cluster was stable when compared with LTA at 2 - 4 and 1.5 – 5 litres respectively in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones. The stability in milk production is attributed to low calving rates as most of camels and cattle which are main sources of milk are likely to calve down in the months of October to December 2020 and currently milk was being derived from goats and sheep across the livelihood zones. The near normal milk production is reflected in milk consumption where milk consumption in the pastoral and agro pastoral

22 livelihood zones is the same as the LTA but the fisheries livelihood zone reported a decline of 50 percent in milk consumption.

Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk Consumption Price (Ksh)/Litre (Litres)/Household (Litres)/Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Pastoral 2-4 2-4 1-3 1-3 40-90 50-75 Agro pastoral 1.5 -5 2-5 1-3 1-3 40-90 50 -75 Fisheries 0.5 1 0.5 1 60 50

Water for livestock The trekking distances from grazing to water sources decreased by 45.4 and 21.4 percent respectively in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones when compared to normal. Water in open surface water sources is projected to last for two to three months and three to five months respectively in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones when compared to one to two and two to four months normally.

Water for Livestock Livelihood zone Return trekking distances (Km) Expected duration to last (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 3-15 8-25 2-3 1-2 Agro pastoral 3-8 2-12 3-5 2-4 Fishing 2 1 6 6

Livestock Migration, Diseases and Mortalities There was no reported out migration of livestock across the cluster as most of the livestock were within their wet season grazing areas. In Marsabit county intra county migration of livestock to dry grazing areas were witnessed in all the livelihood zones along the traditional migratory routes in Laisamis, North Horr and parts of Moyale sub-counties. In Turkana County, movement of livestock attributed to insecurity was observed in areas along the Uganda/Turkana border, Turkana West and Turkana South. In Samburu County, small proportion of herds of cattle migrated towards Samburu Central, Laikipia North Sub County and along the Samburu - Isiolo borders.

Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Diseases (FMD) and Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) were reported in Samburu and Marsabit in the month of March which resulted into vaccinations. Other endemic diseases reported included: Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Mange, Nasal bots, enterotoxaemia, Sheep and Goat Pox, Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), tick-borne diseases and haemmorghic septicemias in camels.

2.1.5.3 Market Performance Market operations were normal except in a few markets which had been affected by containment measures against COVID-19 pandemic. Floods and insecurity incidence were also reported in Songa and Forole markets in Marsabit County.

Market Supplies and Traded Volumes Majority of the markets were not well provisioned with both livestock and essential food commodities despite being operational. Available food in the markets was mainly sourced locally with very minimal supplies from the external markets. Traded volumes across the

23 cluster were below the long-term averages due to the impact of COVID-19 on movement of people and goods.

Market Prices Generally, maize prices were below the long term average across the cluster and ranged from Ksh. 47 per kilogram in Marsabit to the highest of Ksh. 71 in Turkana County. The high prices in Turkana were attributed to stock outs in the agro pastoral livelihood zone coupled with reduced imports from Uganda and external supplies from Trans Nzoia as a result of restrictions of movement occasioned by the COVID 19 pandemic.

Terms of Trade Terms of trade were favorable compared to the long-term averages across the cluster. The highest terms of trade were reported in Marsabit where a sale of one medium sized goat would purchase 78 kilograms of maize against the long-term average of 74 kilograms. Turkana reported the least terms of trade among the three counties within the cluster at 51 kilograms mainly due to the high maize prices reported in the county.

Figure 2.2: Comparative terms of trade

2.1.5.4 Water Access and Availability The main sources of domestic water are boreholes, water pans and shallow wells, Lake Turkana and rivers Turkwel, Kerio and Pans/dams were recharge to 75 and 100 percent of their capacity in Turkana and Samburu respectively. However, recharge was low in the pastoral areas of Marsabit with pans/dams recharged to about 30-50 percent of their capacity.

Water consumption in the pastoral areas average 10 litres per person per day (lppd) in the pastoral zones of Marsabit and Samburu and 20 lppd in Turkana. Water consumption in agropastoral livelihood zone of Marsabit and Samburu average 10-15Lppd. highest water consumption was noted in the agro pastoral and fisheries livelihood zone at 20-30 lppd. Elmolo in Marsabit reported an extreme humanitarian situation where residents reported total lack of safe clean drinking water. Low water consumption of 5 – 8 litres per person per day was noted in Seren, Lolkuniani, Lorok, Onyekie, Nairimirimo, Ngutuk, Engiron, Naturkan, Patpat and Kilepoi in Samburu due to breakages of water sources and destruction of gravity water gravity pipelines by flash floods.

2.1.5.5 Food Consumption Food consumption patterns improved across the cluster in July 2020 compared with similar period in 2019 and this was attributed to improved access to traditional vegetables, cereals and milk in the cluster. The proportion of household in poor food consumption category reduced slightly by six percent to stand at an average of 13.1 percent in July 2020 from 18.8 percent in similar period in 2019). Samburu County had the highest number of households with acceptable food consumption score at 68.9 percent compared to 64.3 and 30.8 percent in

Marsabit and Turkana counties respectively. Conversely, Turkana had the highest number of households in poor food consumption category at 33.2 percent compared to 5.2 and one percent in Samburu and Marsabit counties respectively.

2.1.5.6 Coping Strategy In July 2020, Samburu County recorded the least reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) in the cluster at 10.18 followed by Marsabit County at 15.9 and finally 17.0 in Turkana County. Compared with a similar time last year the index had reduced in Marsabit County from 18.1 and increased in Turkana County to 17.0. Households in Marsabit County had therefore reduced the frequency and severity of consumption-based coping strategies in comparison with last year, but those in Turkana County had slightly increased them. In Marsabit County, 37 percent of the households had not engaged any livelihood-based coping strategies to bridge food consumption gaps. However, 25, 26 and seven percent had engaged stressed, crisis and emergency coping mechanisms. In Samburu County, majority of households (64.4 percent) had not engaged any livelihood-based coping strategies to mitigate food deficits. However, 14.1, 17.8 and 3.7 percent had engaged stressed, crisis and emergency coping strategies.

2.1.5.7 Health and Nutrition

Nutritional status According to the Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) for Acute Malnutrition (AMN) conducted between July and August 2020, Turkana County and Laisamis and North Horr Sub Counties in Marsabit counties were classified in the Critical phase ((IPC AMN Phase; 4 GAM 15.0 to 29.9 percent)), while Samburu County, Saku and Moyale sub counties in Marsabit were classified in Alert nutrition situation (Phase 2; GAM WHZ ≥ 5 to 9.9 percent percent). The nutrition situation is expected to deteriorate across all counties in North West Cluster except in Turkana county in the projected period due to reduced service delivery following scale down of outreaches, increased disease burden due to COVID-19 community transmission, poor dietary intake as a result of household food insecurity. Overall, malnutrition levels are still high across all the Counties in the North West cluster which is majorly due to poor infant and young child feeding practices and morbidities coupled with multiple shocks such as floods and locusts which have resulted to slow recovery from the effects of the 2019 drought.

Morbidity and Mortality The common diseases affecting under-five were URTI, malaria and diarrhea across the cluster. Generally, there is a reduction in the total number of children attending the outpatient as from January to June 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. Cases of upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) and diarrhea among the under-fives were high before the onset of the long rains but declined from March up to June 2020 notably; falling below those reported in the previous year same period. This was attributed to the decreasing numbers of communities seeking health services at health services delivery points due to fear of contracting COVID-19, in addition to community observance of the hand washing measures. Malaria cases among children under 5 years during the period January to June 2020 were relatively high in comparison to those recorded in 2019 similar period. This could be attributed to the floods experienced in the cluster during the long rain season resulting in breading of mosquitos. Cholera, malaria outbreak and cases of Kala Azar were reported in some parts of Marsabit County. No unusual deaths in the cluster were reported within the same period.

Immunization and Vitamin A Supplementation

The proportion of immunized children was relatively high across the cluster for OPV3 and measles but relatively low for fully immunized children (FIC). However, none of the counties across the cluster attained the national target of 80 percent. Samburu County recorded the lowest percentage of FIC at 62.5 percent probably as a result of effects of COVID-19 on health seeking behavior. Marsabit and Turkana counties recorded 66.3 and 66.8 percent respectively. Turkana County had the highest OPV3 coverage at 76.5 percent followed by Samburu at 76.1 then Marsabit was least at 74.3 percent.

Vitamin A supplementation (VAS) was lowest in Samburu County for the first semester of 2020. Across the cluster, VAS for 12-59 months was the lowest at 54.8 percent, 14.8 and 35.5 percent for Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana respectively; while VAS for 6-11 months recorded the highest at 119.9, 74.9 and 114.9 percent. Marsabit County was the only Figure 2.3: Vitamin A coverage for North West Cluster county to surpass the national average (58.1%) for 6-59 months by recording 58.9 percent coverage (Figure 2.3).

Water Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) A larger proportion of households in Samburu, Turkana and Marsabit County were aware of handwashing practices at 84, 82 and 75 percent respectively. Hand washing at critical times remained low across the cluster. Turkana recorded the highest at 41.1 percent, Marsabit 27.0 and Samburu at 11.8 percent. The proportion of households treating water is still low across the cluster at less than 25 percent. The levels of water treatment were 12.6, 18.4 and 22 percent in Samburu, Turkana and Marsabit respectively. The main water treatment methods were boiling and use of chemicals. Turkana recorded a notable decrease on the proportion of households treating water from 20.1 in 2018 to 12.6 percent in 2019. According to SMART survey 2019, latrine coverage in Turkana and Samburu was 21 percent and 27.4 percent respectively. This is still below 50 percent WHO recommended SPHERE standards. Marsabit County has a fair latrine coverage at 54.8 percent. However, there was an improvement in latrine coverage across the cluster from the previous year where latrine coverage in Turkana and Samburu was 12 percent and 25 percent respectively. Marsabit improved from 52 percent in 2018. Turkana County has the lowest latrine coverage in the cluster.

2.1.5.8 Education

Access: Enrolment There was an overall increase in enrolment across the cluster in the three levels of education by one, 11 and 21 percent respectively in ECDE, Primary and Secondary, with exception of Samburu where enrolment in ECDE recorded a decrease. The increase is attributed to availability of school feeding programs for ECDE and Primary and the 100 percent transition drive exercise. Lack of feeding programmes in ECDE centres in Samburu is cited as the reason for drop in enrolment. Establishment of new day secondary schools in Samburu saw the enrolment in secondary level surge.

Enrolment in the cluster Enrolment Term III 2019 Term I 2020 before COVID School Change Closure (%) № Boys № Girls Total № Boys № Girls Total ECD 87,373 80,149 167,522 88,316 81,160 169,476 1 Primary 133,308 121,504 254,812 147,087 135,464 282,551 11 Secondary 20,499 15,861 36,360 24,760 19,375 44,135 21

The cluster witnessed minimal transfers with exception of Turkana which was attributed to parents’ personal interests, migration of the parents from one area to another, poor performance of some schools, sickly nature of some students, preference of boarding schools to day schools and financial problems.

School Meals Programme There are three forms of school feeding; ECDE feeding programme, Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) and Homegrown School Meals Programme (HGSMP). In Marsabit County Government supported school feeding which benefited 20,795 pupils in public and pre- primary schools. 185 Public primary schools were under RSMP in Samburu benefiting 61,491 pupils before COVID -19 school closure. The HGSMP benefited all public primary school pupils and is supported by the Ministry of Education.

Key challenges in implementation of school meals programme include delay in delivery of food in schools and inadequate water for preparation of meals in some schools. There are food stocks in some schools that may spoil due to financial constraints.

Inter-sector links Availability of water in schools is a challenge. For instance, in Turkana, a number of schools did not have hand washing facilities and even clean and safe water for drinking. In Samburu, majority of public primary and secondary schools have limited water supply occasioning poor hygiene and sanitation practices. Likewise, in Marsabit, earth pans and roof catchment form the main sources of water for most schools. There are no permanent water sources within 100 metres radius of many schools. Girls who usually receive sanitary towels while in school did not benefit following the abrupt closure of schools due to the COVID-19 pandemic. County departments of health carried out deworming and vitamin A supplementation in ECDEs targeting under-five children during the pre-COVID-19 period. The county departments of education and vocational training also distributed water tanks to ECD centres.

Effects of COVID -19 in schools A total of 29 institutions (1 primary, 27 secondary and 1 polytechnic) have been identified as quarantine centres in the cluster; 3, 4 and 22 in Turkana, Samburu and Marsabit respectively. Participation in e-learning is very minimal across the cluster. Despite awareness of e-learning among parents and learners in Samburu county, participation remained very low (four percent) attributable to; Inadequate electronic devices, poor reception of radio waves, low power connections and poor internet connectivity in the county since in many places only 2G network is available. High illiteracy level among parents was also cited as a hindrance to seeking e- learning opportunities for their children.

Effects of heavy rains on schools Above normal rains received during the long rains season resulted to flash floods affected 60 schools in Samburu where desks, learning materials, walls were destroyed. In addition, pit

27 latrines were submerged and therefore a need for rehabilitation of WASH facilities in preparation for school reopening. A similar flood scenario was witnessed in Turkana where 115 schools (30 ECDE, 75 Primary and 10 Secondary) suffered infrastructural damage with classroom roofs, fences blown off and solar panels destroyed by strong storms. Sanitation facilities such as toilets were damaged and cracks developed in some buildings making them a health hazard. Some 1,131 households in Marsabit were affected by floods.

2.2 The Pastoral North-East Livelihood Cluster

2.2.1 Cluster Background The Pastoral Northeast livelihood cluster covers five counties namely Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera, Tana River and Wajir (Figure 2.4). The cluster covers an approximate area of 193,245 square kilometres (km2) with an estimated pupation of 3,074,018 persons (KNBS 2019). The main livelihood zones in the cluster are Pastoral all species, Agro-pastoral, Marginal Mixed Farming, Irrigated and Formal/ Informal employment/ Business/ Petty Trade with a population proportion of 52, 19, eight, six, and five percent respectively. Main source of income is livestock production which contributes 60 percent to cash income in the cluster while crop production has a contribution of 30 Figure 2.4: Pastoral Northeast cluster livelihood zones percent to cash income.

2.2.2 Current Drivers of Food Insecurity

Rainfall Performance The onset of the 2020 March to May long rains in the cluster was timely in Isiolo and Tana River during the second dekad of March compared to the third dekad normally. The onset was late in Garissa, Mandera and Wajir, during the third dekad of March compared to the second dekad normally. The cumulative rainfall totals were above average ranging between 111-200 percent of the normal. The temporal distribution was poor in Garissa and Isiolo, fair in Wajir and good in Mandera and Tana River. Spatial distribution was even across the cluster except in the southern areas of Garissa. Rainfall cessation occurred early, during the third dekad of April to the first dekad of May compared to the third dekad of May normally.

Conflict /Insecurity Generally, there were no major incidents of insecurity reported in the cluster during the long rains season. However, prolonged conflict along the Garissa-Isiolo South border continued resulting to loss of lives and livestock and leading to temporary abandonment of homes for safer areas. In addition, cases of human-wildlife conflict remained rampant in Isiolo and Tana River (Sala, Nanighi, Saka, Kipini, Chara and Kilelengwani) while in Garissa insecurity related to terror attacks were reported in areas bordering Somalia. In Garissa consultative peace meetings were on-going.

Covid-19 Pandemic The cluster had reported a total of 61 confirmed positive cases as at the time of the assessment with a total of two fatalities. The COVID-19 control measures such as the banning of gatherings

28 and movement restrictions including night curfews resulted into profound and myriad negative impacts on livelihoods and subsequently the food security situation. For instance, closure of commodity, fish and livestock markets was reported across all the counties which resulted in reduced household incomes, increased food prices and 50 percent reduction in the workforce within the hospitality industry. In the agricultural sector, the control measures led to reduced area under crop production due to the banning of groupings in irrigation schemes and high cost of farm inputs resulting from restriction of movement which led to few farmers planting. Absence of casual farm labour also played a significant role in the agricultural production. Notably, health service delivery was severely affected with the focus on COVID-19 affecting other essential services like vitamin A supplementation and reductions in the proportion of people seeking health services due to fear and stigma associated with the pandemic. Following the closure of schools, negative practices including child labour, increased prostitution and teenage pregnancies were reported with the likelihood of a high dropout rate being recorded once learning resumes. Further, the situation has been worsened by the scaling down of the activities of humanitarian actors following the withdrawal of staff which in turn is expected to have significant negative impacts especially on malnutrition rates.

Floods Flooding along the banks of River Tana resulted into destruction of 528 Ha of maize, 85 Ha green grams and 328 Ha of cowpeas, destruction of household properties and shelters and the displacement of approximately 2,327 households in Garissa and Tana River counties. Approximately 10,236 households in Tana River were also temporarily hosted by their relatives and friends or sought temporary shelter in surrounding primary schools after their houses and farms were flooded. An estimated 7,534 households were cut off due to damaged transport infrastructure. Additionally, flooding in Iresaboru centre and Gafarsa location of Garbatulla sub county in Isiolo county led to the displacement of 535 households.

Livestock diseases Outbreak of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) affecting mainly cattle was reported in Garissa and Isiolo with a mysterious camel disease in Banissa and Mandera West sub counties resulting to over 200 deaths. Upsurge of helminthiasis and tick-borne diseases (Anaplasmosis, Babesiosis and Tick paralysis) in small stock, Para influenza in camel, endemic CCPP in small stocks and enzootic trypanosomiasis affecting cattle was reported in different sections of Isiolo and Garissa counties. In addition, Tsetse flies were reported in Isiolo (Kinna).

Desert locust invasion The Desert Locusts had earlier in the season invaded parts of Oldonyiro, Kulamawe, Kinna and Eldera in Isiolo; and Bangale, Walesorea and Bawama in Tana River while in Garissa 1,560 acres of crop-land and 6,800 hectares of forage was decimated in Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara central and Dadaab sub counties. Overall, the damage was minimal as a result of the above normal rainfall promoting continuous regeneration of forage. However,with breeding and laying of eggs having occurred in Tana River, it is projected that significant damage of the crops and forage will most likely happen if control measures are not put in place. During the season, tree locusts that were mainly feeding on browse were reported in Isiolo (Kinna and Kulamawe). On the other hand, the National Drought Management Authority was coordinating control efforts while the county government of Wajir was undertaking regular surveillance and cash transfer targeting 2,240 affected households across the county had been implemented.

2.2.3 Current Food Security Situation The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification for the cluster was Stressed (IPC Phase 2). All counties in the cluster reported household maize stocks that were below the long term average by 20 – 85 percent except Isiolo. The below average maize stocks were due to the destruction of crops by floods, desert locusts and reduced area under crop production due to a high cost of farm inputs. Pasture and browse conditions were good in Garissa, Wajir and Tana River but fair in Isiolo and Mandera. The good forage conditions supported good livestock body conditions in the cluster and sustained above average livestock prices. The maize prices were generally above average in the cluster except in Isiolo where prices were within the average. As a result, the goat-to-cereal terms of trade ranged between 30-40 percent above average and maintained good household purchasing power and access to food. The proportion of households with poor food consumption scores was generally low in most of the counties in the cluster except in Tana River where the proportion was 28 percent. The prevalence of acute malnutrition among children below five years of age was within the seasonal range.

2.2.4 Food Security trends Indicator Short Rains Assessment, Long Rains Assessment, July February 2020 (Previous 2020 (Current season) season) % maize stocks at household level 30 % of LTA 50 % of LTA Livestock Body condition Good for all species across the Good for all species across the cluster cluster Water consumption 25 litres per person per day 25 litres per person per day Terms of trade 64 kgs 68 kgs Coping strategy index 7 12 Price per kg of maize Ksh. 56 Ksh. 62 Food consumption score Acceptable: 66 Acceptable: 56 Borderline: 26 Borderline: 29 Poor: 8 Poor: 15 Distance to grazing (km) 5 8

2.2.5 Impact of Drivers on Food and Nutrition Security

2.2.5.1 Crop Production The cluster relies both on short and long rain season for crop production. Both rain-fed and irrigation agricultural production is practiced in the area. Most of the food crop production is done in Tana River and Garissa counties.

Rain fed Crop Production The major crops grown under rain fed agriculture are maize, cowpeas and green grams while beans and sorghum are grown on small scale. While maize is grown in all the counties across the cluster, Tana River accounts for 56 percent of total maize production. Also, the county accounts for 93 percent of green grams and 50 percent of cowpeas produced in the cluster respectively. The total area under maize and cowpeas was 10 percent and 21 percent above the LTA respectively Tana River and Mandera counties. The increase was attributed to timely access to farm inputs and subsidized mechanization services through support by county governments and other partners such as Concern Worldwide, World Concern and Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Project. In the rest of the counties, the area planted was slightly below the LTA due to low access to certified seed and fertilizer due to constrained supply because of Covid-19 restrictions.

While total maize production within the cluster increased to 31 percent above LTA, production in Garissa, Wajir and Isiolo declined to 41-68 percent below the LTA. The reduction was driven by an early rainfall cessation in Garissa while Desert Locust and Fall Armyworm infestations led to the loss of about 70 percent of maize, beans and green grams in Isiolo. Maize production in Tana River and Mandera counties ranged between 28-43 percent above LTA. Similarly, the production of cowpeas and green grams was significantly below average in Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and Isiolo. However, in Tana River the production of green grams and cowpeas was 50 percent and 86 percent above LTA, respectively.

Rain fed crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2020 Long rains season Long Term Average during 2020 Average production production during Long rains area planted during (90 kg bags) the Long rains season the Long rains Projected/Actual season (Ha) season (Ha) (90 kg bags) Maize 5,431 4,909 74,260 56,287 Cowpeas 1,614 1,324 13,791 7,338 Green grams 1,239 1,132 15,550 10,760

Irrigated Crop Production Irrigation is mainly done along river Tana in Garissa and Tana River Counties while in Wajir it is done by use of shallow wells/water pans. Irrigation in Mandera relies on seasonal River Daua. The major crops grown under irrigation were maize, cowpeas and green grams in Tana River and Mandera counties. Other main crops produced are bananas, mangoes, watermelons mainly in Garissa County while tomatoes, onions and kales are produced across the cluster. Overall, the area under maize, green grams and cowpeas increased by 67, 99 was 29 percent respectively compared to the LTA. However, the area under maize production in Isiolo declined by 44 percent due to lack of certified seeds.

The production of maize, green grams and cowpeas increased by 138, 158 and 199 percent respectively compared to the LTA. Production of bananas, mangoes, watermelons and tomatoes in Garissa was 30 percent below the LTA due to Desert Locust invasion that destroyed 631 Ha of the irrigated crops. In addition, floods along the Tana River washed away 40 percent of the irrigated fields, submerged irrigation engines and rendered the farms inaccessible for close to three months. Irrigation activities were also negatively affected by Covid-19 restriction as most casual laborers relocated back to the villages.

Irrigated crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2020 Long rains Long Term Average during 2020 Average season production during Long rains area planted during production the Long rains season the Long rains season (90 kg bags) season (Ha) (Ha) Projected/Actual (90 kg bags) Maize 4,547 2,721 72,230 30,390 Green Grams 923 464 11,999 4,640 Cowpeas 914 711 5,654 1,890

Cereal Stocks Maize stock held by households and traders were 53 and 83 percent of the LTA respectively while millers held 26 percent above the LTA stocks. The decrease in stocks held by households and traders was driven by a constrained supply due to movement restrictions imposed to control the spread of COVID-19 pandemic. Maize stocks held by millers were high especially in Garissa due to carryover stocks from the previous season. In Tana River, households maize

31 stock is expected to increase by end of August when farmers complete harvesting. Rice stocks held by households was 14 percent of the LTA while traders had 13 percent above the LTA. Traders have increased rice stocks, a substitute to maize within the cluster, to above average levels as a result of constrained maize supplies. Sorghum stocks held by household and traders was 65 and 70 percent respectively of the LTA due to constrained supply. Sorghum stock held for food assistance increased by 61 percent compared to the LTA due to support by World Food Programme (WFP) and other development partners to the vulnerable people affected by floods and Covid-19. Green gram stock with household and traders was 83 and 67 percent respectively of LTA due to due to reduced production and constrained supply. The available maize household stock is expected to last for one month across the cluster.

Cereal stocks in the cluster Farmers Traders Millers Food Aid Total Maize (90 kgs) Current 13,021 28,714 3,025 0 44,760 LTA 24,626 34,360 2,386 8,550 69,922 Rice (50 kgs) Current 130 86,473 25 14,180 100,808 LTA 903 76,363 0 15,200 92,466 Sorghum (90 kgs) Current 3,196 11,738 0 39,566 54,500 LTA 4,890 16,718 20 24,500 46,128 Green grams (90 kgs) Current 4,957 2,541 0 300 7,798 LTA 5,942 3,763 0 1,200 10,905

2.2.5.2 Livestock Production Livestock production contributes about 68 - 85 percent to cash incomes in the Pastoral Livelihood zones and 15 - 60 percent Agro Pastoral Livelihood zones. The main livestock species kept in the cluster include goats, sheep, camels and cattle. Pasture and browse conditions are good to fair within the cluster which is normal but on a deteriorating trend and is expected to last for one to four months which is normal. The current forage conditions result from the above average long rains experienced in the cluster. The carry over pasture and browse from the previous seasons was currently supporting the livestock.

Insecurity along Garissa-Isiolo border, inadequate water in the grazing areas and increased incidences of Tsetse flies as well as tick borne diseases in Garbatulla and Kinna ward hindered access to pasture and browse. Other risks such as bush fires and Desert Locust invasion posed a threat to the standing hay and browse across the counties. In parts of Isiolo (Oldonyiro, Burat, Kinna, Garbatulla and Sericho, Kinna-Kulamawe wards) Desert Locusts damaged approximately 10 percent of browse especially in Ol-donyiro ward and 40 percent in Kipsing location although regeneration has already taken place. In Garissa county Desert Locust invasions were reported in Balambala, Fafi, Lagdera, Ijara central and Dadaab. Sankuri (Balambala) and Nanighi (fafi) wards were the most affected and became hotspots for breeding. A total of 6,800 Hectares (17,000 acres) of pasture and browse were reportedly destroyed by the Desert Locusts. Recovery in most of the previously affected areas has occurred following the above normal 2020 long rains.

Pasture and browse condition Livelihood zone Pasture condition Browse condition Current Normally Projected Current Normally Projected Duration Duration to last to last (Months) (Months) Pastoral all species Good - Fair Fair – Poor 1-4 Good to Fair Good –Fair 1-3 Agro pastoral Good - Fair Fair – Poor 1-4 Good Good-Fair 1-4

Livestock Body condition The body conditions for all livestock are good to fair in the cluster which is normal for the season. The observed stability in body condition was attributed to adequate availability of pastures and browse. The body conditions are expected to deteriorate beginning September driven by increased distances to water sources, declining forage conditions and increased incidences of livestock pests and diseases. Consequently, milk production is likely to decline reducing household’s milk consumption, incomes and nutrition status.

Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral Good to Good to Fair to Good Good to Good Good Good Good Fair Fair Fair Agro Good to Good to Fair to Good Good to Good Good Good Good pastoral Fair Fair Fair

The TLUs among the poor income households declined by 18.1 percent in the pastoral livelihood zone but remained the same in the Agro Pastoral livelihood compared with normal. In the medium income households, the TLUs declined by 18.5 percent in the Pastoral areas and 20 percent in the Agro Pastoral livelihood zone compared to the normal. In the anticipation of the short rains in the next few months, it is expected that the TLUs will continue to improve among the households across the livelihood zones.

Tropical livestock unit (TLUs) Livelihood Poor income households Medium income households zone Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 2-7 4-7 10-12 9-18 Agro-pastoral 4-6 3-7 5-11 8-12

The birth rates were normal among the small stock and camels while most of the cattle had been served and were yet to calf. The current birth rates are expected to continue improving livestock holdings. Driven by good availability of rangeland resources, milk production remained within average with production ranging between 1- 5 liters compared to 2 – 4 liters normally.

Milk consumption was at average levels, ranging between 1 – 2 liters per household. The cost of milk declined by 10-20 percent in the cluster driven by COVID-19 control measures that limited deliveries to major urban areas such as Nairobi. In Isiolo County, camel milk delivered to Nairobi declined to approximately 3,000 liters compared to 6,500 liters normally.

Milk Production, Consumption and Prices Livelihood Milk Production Milk consumption (Liters)/ Prices (Ksh)/Liters zone Liters)/Household Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Pastoral 1 -4 2-4 1-2 1-2 55-80 60-90 The trekking distances from grazing areas to water sources were normal, both in the Pastoral and the Agro Pastoral livelihood zones, ranging between 6-12 km and 4-10 km respectively due to the average recharge of open water sources. Water is projected to last for 1-3 across all the livelihood zones which is normal. Watering frequency for all livestock species ranged from daily to after every two days across the livelihood zones in the cluster compared to 2-3 days for cattle and five days for camels in similar periods. Return trekking distances for livestock from grazing areas to water points across Pastoral Livelihood Zones in Tana River county had started to gradually increase as most open water sources

33 where drying up and is expected to increase further with the ongoing dry spell being experienced in the cluster counties. Water for livestock Livelihood Return trekking Expected duration to Watering frequency zone distances (Km) last (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 6-12 6-12 1-2 1 -3 After every 2 days to Daily to after every Daily 3 days Agro 4-10 4-10 1-2.5 1 -4 After every 2 days to Daily to after every pastoral Daily 3 days

Livestock migrations were minimal within the cluster with only localized intercounty movements within the cluster. In the pastoral areas of Wajir County livestock movements were noted from Basir/Lakolle, Arbajahan, Hadado/Athibohol and Ademasajida wards to parts of Isiolo and Marsabit Counties. Isiolo County hosted livestock from Marsabit, Wajir and Garissa counties. Livestock disease reported included Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR), Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia (CCPP), Sheep and Goat Pox (SGP), Camel influenza, Foot rot, Trypanosomiasis, Contagious Bovine Pleuro-Pneumonia (CBPP), and parasitic infections by fleas, mice and ticks. the counties. However, disease control, surveillance and vaccination by the veterinary department is ongoing. As a result, livestock mortality was normal within the cluster.

2.2.5.3 Market Performance Market operations were normal in Wajir but in the rest of the counties, operations were affected by containment measures imposed to control the spread of Covid-19. The closure of the Somalia and Ethiopia borders significantly impeded cross border livestock movements within Mandera county. In Tana River County, several markets were cut off by floods that had destroyed sections of the Garissa-Bura highway.

Market Prices Maize prices were above the long-term average, ranging from Kshs 50 in Isiolo County to Ksh. 81 in Mandera County and were driven by limited maize availability due to border closures and slowed down supplies following the COVID-19 control measures. Goat prices were above average driven by good body conditions and low sale rates as herders preferred to improve the herd sizes. The goat prices varied across the cluster ranging between Kshs 3,333 in Garissa to Ksh. 4,300 in Mandera County. The highest price was noted in Mandera Town Markets where prices ranged between Ksh 4500-5500.

Terms of Trade The goat-to-maize price ratios (Terms of 80 July, 2020 July Average (2015-2019) Trade) were above average across the 70 cluster driven by significantly above 60 average goat prices. By July, households 50 in Wajir County could afford 74 40 kilograms of maize from the sale of a 30 medium sized goat while those in Tana 20 River and Isiolo counties could afford 73 kgs and 72 kgs respectively. Terms from of sale a goat 10

0 Kilograms maizepurchasedof of trade were much lower in Garissa and Wajir Tana River Isiolo Garissa Mandera Mandera counties with households able Figure 2.5: Comparative terms of trade

34 to afford 56 kgs and 53 kgs of maize respectively from the sale of a medium sized goat.

2.2.5.4 Water Availability and Access The open surface water sources such as water pans and dams recharged to 60-80 percent with those in Garissa recharging up to 90 percent of their capacities. Currently, nearly 60 water pans, dams, and underground tanks in Mandera have dried up while a significant number has dried up in Wajir. The remaining water pans in Wajir and those in Tana River are holding about 40- 50 percent of their capacities and are expected to last for 1-2 months. Water flows along the major rivers such as Dua, Tana, Isiolo, Bisan Adi and Ewaso Nyiro are normal while other sources such as Benane springs have adequate amounts.

Return distances to watering points have significantly reduced due to improvements in water availability. Return distances range between 3-6 km compared to five kilometers normally in Wajir, 1-2 km compared to 4-10 km normally in Isiolo while in Garissa and Mandera, distances are normal ranging between 5-10 km. However, water trucking was active in 76 villages in Mandera. In Tana River, return distances are one kilometer compared to 1-3 km.

The cost of water across the cluster is normal at Kshs 2-5 per 20-liter jerrycan, except for Wajir and Tana River where the normal cost of water is Kshs 5-10 per 20-liter jerrycan. However, around Bangale area in Tana River County the cost of a 20-liter jerrycan has increased to Kshs 30 up from Kshs 20. Water costs are highest in Wajir and Garissa towns, ranging between Ksh. 25-50 per 20 liters jerrycan. Waiting time at source has remained normal at less than 30 minutes except in Mandera and Wajir and parts of Sericho and Iresaboru in Isiolo where waiting time is 30-60 minutes. Water consumption ranges between 10-20 liters per person per day in Mandera and Wajir, 20-30 in Isiolo and Tana River and 30-40 in Garissa.

2.2.5.5 Food Consumption With improved livestock productivity, food availability and access, household food consumption and dietary diversity has significantly improved in most areas within the cluster. The proportion of households with borderline and poor food consumption scores was 10-23 percent and 6-12 percent in Mandera, Isiolo and Garissa, in July. However, in Tana River and Wajir, the proportion of households with borderline and poor food consumption scores was 38- 47 percent and 21-29 percent respectively due to flooding and Covid-19 measures which resulted to loss of labor, limiting access of food from the markets. Milk consumption has improved across the cluster due to improved milk availability except in Isiolo and Tana River Counties where consumption slightly reduced.

2.2.5.6 Coping Strategies Even with improvements in household food availability and access, the adoption of consumption-based coping strategies, measured using the Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI), was evident but at varying degrees. According to NDMA sentinel site data, 51 percent, 57 percent, 74 percent, 79 percent and 83 percent of households in Mandera, Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, and Isiolo were employing Stressed consumption based coping strategies, in July. The proportion of households adopting Crisis/Emergency coping strategies was two percent in Wajir, 11 percent in Isiolo, 16 percent in Garissa, 20 percent in Tana River and 46 percent in Mandera.

The proportion of households that adopted Stressed livelihood coping strategies were six percent in Wajir, 12 percent in Mandera, 20 percent in Tana River, 30 percent in Garissa and 50 percent in Isiolo, in July. Those that adopted Crisis livelihood coping strategies were 12-25 percent except in Tana River that had approximately 60 percent of households due to the

35 negative impacts of floods. Approximately 3-10 percent of households engaged in Emergency livelihood coping strategies except in Isiolo and Mandera where the proportion of households was 18-23 percent.

3.3.1 Health and Nutrition Nutrition situation according to Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) for Acute Malnutrition was Critical (IPC AMN Phase 4) in Garissa, Isiolo, Mandera and Wajir while Tana River was Serious (IPC AMN Phase 3 GAM). Integrated management of acute malnutrition (IMAM) and outreach services were interrupted across the cluster due to the COVID 19 pandemic. As a result, admissions to SFP and OTP programmes declined significantly. Nonetheless, the prevalence of acute malnutrition in the cluster is projected to remain stable between through October as there are no significant changes in food availability, access and utilization anticipated. However, with the cases of COVID-19 expected to continue increasing, the pressure on health care systems is likely to remain elevated.

Morbidity and Mortality The caseloads for Upper Respiratory Tract Infections (URTI) and Diarrhea for both the general population and the under-fives between January and June compared to the same time last year. The low numbers observed in 2020 are attributed to poor health seeking behaviour as a result of COVID-19 pandemic which has seen many households stay at home for fear of infections when visiting the facilities as well as COVID-19 testing and subsequent quarantine. URTI infections trends for the children under five years of age were characterized by spikes in March at the start of rain season and reduced in April. Thereafter the caseloads remained within the seasonal ranges except in Tana River where an increase was noted due to the floods. The cases of diarrhea remained within the seasonal norms across the cluster mainly attributed to the improved hand washing practices as part of hygiene promotion measures put in place to curb the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, cases of malaria are within the normal ranges except in Garissa county where the cases doubled to 932 cases in 2020 compared 457 cases reported in 2019.

Between February and March, 33 cases of measles were reported in Fafi, Lagdera, Dadaab and Garissa Sub Counties while 56 cases were reported in Tana River with one fatality. At the sesame time, 55 cholera cases were reported in Garissa while four cases were reported in Wajir, in January. Visceral leishmaniasis was reported in Garissa with 84 confirmed cases out of which 41 cases were in Lagdera and Garissa Sub Counties. The case fatality rate of 7.3 percent. While response activities to control disease outbreak are in place, COVID-19 pandemic control measures continue to limit their effectiveness.

Effects of COVID -19 Pandemic on Essential Services As at 11th August, a total of 260 confirmed COVID-19 cases were reported 158 cases in Garissa, 35 cases in Wajir, 26 cases in Mandera, 32 cases in Isiolo and nine cases in Tana River. Currently, the business continuity guidelines provided by the Ministry of Health are being used within the cluster. Preventive, routine and curative services across primary and community health services have significantly reduced following a significant reduction in client turnout due to fear of infections and the associated stigma. The pandemic has affected all services including routine services, curative and specialized services particularly between April and May. Clinic outreach programmes, referrals by Community Health Volunteers (CHV) and Malezi-Bora activities have significantly reduced. All Counties within the cluster have established a COVID-19 response teams, coordination mechanisms for the response, isolation centers, and ICU facilities as part of COVID-19 response. Other response interventions include

36 public awareness through public barazas, radio spots on COVID-19, distribution of face masks, sanitizers and hand washing facilities. Health workers, CHVs, cross border case disease reporters and community mobilizers have been trained on COVID 19 and contact tracing.

Immunization, Vitamin A supplementation, Iron and Folic Acid Supplementation Between January and June, the proportion of fully immunized children was relatively high in Wajir and Mandera at 80 percent and 90 percent respectively but was 64.5 percent, 70.5 percent and 71.6 percent in Isiolo, Garissa and Tana River counties respectively. The coverage in the latter three counties was mainly attributed to poor health seeking behavior following the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic. Immunization against measles above 80 percent except for Isiolo and Garissa where the coverage was 74 percent and 75.6 percent respectively (Figure 2.6).

Immunization Coverage Based on Vitamin A Supplementation Based on Routine data Routine Data

100% 140 120 80% 100 60% 80

40% 60 40 20% 20 0% 0 Tanariver Isiolo Garissa Wajir Mandera Garissa Isiolo Mandera Tana River Wajir OPV3 FIC Measles Sem 1 2019 Sem 2 2019 Sem 1 2020

Figure 2.6: Immunization and Vitamin A supplementation Coverage

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene The proportion of households treating water is less than 28 percent across the cluster with Tana River county being the lowest at 16.7 percent. Sanitation and hygiene practice remain sub- optimal within the cluster with latrine coverage being at 49 percent and open defecation still at 50 percent. Hand washing with soap and water has significantly improved as a result of the COVID-19 control measures.

2.2.5.8 Education

Access: Enrolment rate ECDE enrolment within the cluster decreased by four percent while enrolment in primary and secondary increased by four and six percent, respectively. The increase was due to enhanced enforcement of the government policy on 100 percent transition and free compulsory education policy. Also, availability of the School Meals Programme (SMP), expansion of existing secondary schools, education scholarship and bursary opportunities drove the increase in enrolment.

Enrolment Term I 2020 (includes new Increase Term III 2019 students registered and drop- or % % Boys % Girls outs since Term I 2020) Decreas Increase Enrolme Enrolm e or № № № № nt ent Enrolment Total Total Variatio decrease Boys Girls Boys Girls n ECD 44,946 38,447 83,393 41,839 37,831 79,670 -3,723 -4% 53% 47% Primary 144,303 105,288 24,9591 149,923 109,104 259,027 9,436 4% 58% 42% Secondary 312,57 21,289 52,546 34,053 21,405 55,458 2,912 6% 60% 40%

Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Schools A total of 24 Secondary schools and 10 Primary schools within this cluster were used as quarantine centres. So far 11 (7 secondary and 4 primary) schools are being used as quarantine or holding centres in Isiolo county. In Tana River County, there were a total of five schools earmarked to be used as quarantine centres within the county. In these schools, infrastructure repairs, payment of water and electricity bills and fumigation are required before re-opening.

Effects of Long Rains on Schools In Isiolo the above average long rains resulted in floods and landslides that damaged structures such as latrines, classroom walls and water tanks, in addition to the emergence of deep gullies in 146 schools. Similar structures were destroyed in 40 schools in Mandera, 120 schools in Garissa, and 35 schools in Tana River.

School Feeding Generally, Home Grown School Meals (HGSM), Regular School Meals Progrmme (RSMP) are the main feeding programmes provided across the cluster. The programmes were running up to the closure of schools in March. By that time, 29,333 pupils (14,379 boys and 14,954 girls) in 115 public schools in Isiolo benefitted from Home Grown School Meals Programme. In Mandera, a total of 94,728 pupils (60,785 boys and 33,943 girls) in public primary schools and 51,066 pupils in 168 primary schools in Garissa benefitted from RSMP. In Tana River county 55,076 (28,439 Boys and 26,637 Girls) in all the 178 public primary schools benefitted from RSMP. There are still food stocks (rice, beans and cooking oil) available in some school stores which raises safety and suitability concerns.

Learning Continuity Pupils accessing E-Learning in Isiolo were 15 percent of the ECD pupils, 23 percent of primary schools pupils and 32 percent of the secondary schools. In Tana River County, 24 percent of learners in secondary schools, 12 percent in primary school and four percent in ECD centers had access to KICD (Kenya Institute of Curriculum Development) Radio/TV or other home-based learning. The uptake of E-learning has been low due to lack of radios, mobile phones, televisions and lack of energy sources such as electricity to power the electronic gadgets. In addition, majority of parents and pupils have little or no knowledge of the existing education platforms.

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene Generally within the cluster there were several schools with lack of clean water within 100 meters of the school and inadequate hand washing facilities. In Isiolo 40, 76 and 16 ECD, primary and secondary schools had inadequate functional latrines. Water was not enough, hand washing facilities and latrines for learners and teachers were also limited. The distribution of menstrual support or dignity kits was distributed to girls who were at their homes. Only Girls in upper primary schools (classes 5 to 8) benefitted from sanitary towels distributed to schools by the ministry of Education where each girl received three packets for the three months of term one 2020.

2.3 The Agro Pastoral Livelihood Cluster

2.3.1 Cluster Background Information The cluster comprises of Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia, Narok, Nyeri (Kieni) and West Pokot counties and covers an area of 71,471.7 square kilometers. The total population in the cluster is 4,281,198 persons (KNBS 2019 Census) and has six major livelihood zones (Figure 2.7). The zones include mixed farming, pastoral, marginal mixed farming, agro pastoral, formal employment/tourism/business and irrigated crop livelihood zones with a population proportion of 31, 27, 20, 11, 10.7 and 0.7 percent respectively. The main sources of income in the cluster are livestock and cash crop production with a contribution of 75 percent and 55 percent accordingly.

2.3.2 Current Drivers of Food Insecurity

Figure 2.7: Agro pastoral cluster Rainfall Performance livelihood zones The onset of 2020 long rains in the cluster varied from being early in some counties to late in some parts across the cluster. In Kajiado and Nyeri counties, the onset was early in the third dekad of February and first dekad of March respectively. In Baringo, Laikipia and West Pokot, the onset was timely during the first, second and third dekad of March respectively. In Narok, the onset was late in the first dekad of April. Rainfall received in the cluster was 126-200 percent of the normal rainfall (Figure 2). Temporal distribution was good in the cluster except in Narok where it was poor and erratic while spatially, the distribution was even in all the counties save for Narok. Majority of the counties reported a late cessation during the third dekad of June while Kajiado and Laikipia had a timely during the third dekad of May. However, off-season rains continued being experienced in Baringo, Laikipia and West Pokot counties across July 2020.

Insecurity and Conflicts The relative peace in Baringo was attributed to the on-ongoing disarmament exercise. However, few incidents of cattle rustling were reported in parts of Baringo South Sub County. Human-wildlife conflicts resulted to destruction of crops in areas bordering the game reserves in Kajiado and Laikipia. Cases of insecurity in parts of the pastoral livelihood zone in Laikipia resulted in injuries and death of police reservists.

COVID-19 Pandemic The cluster reported 48 confirmed positive cases as at the time of the assessment with three fatalities. The outbreak of COVID-19 in the cluster, resulted negative impacts on livelihoods as well as food and nutritional security situation. The closure of markets in the cluster had significantly affected household’s disposable incomes. Farmers were not able to market/sell their fresh produce while the livestock keepers could not trade due to the imposed restrictions and the cereals prices were notably high. The plight of residents within the cluster worsened by the closure of hotels and restaurants that consumed crop and livestock products. Changed health seeking behavior was attributed to COVID-19 pandemic fear/stigma, delivery of health services affected negatively resulting to increased cases of malnutrition and other co- morbidities like Malaria. The closure of schools as part of the containment measures earlier in March, resulted to negative practices such as child labour, increased prostitution and teenage

39 pregnancies in the cluster with the likelihood of a high dropout rates when learning resumes. Due to increased number of household members, competition for the little available food within households was reported with majority of households resorting to consumption of 1-2 meals as part of their coping strategy. Household water utilization improved, hygiene and sanitation levels were relatively high because of the sensitization conducted by the ministry of health. Acreage under cultivation increased due to availability of farm labour in surplus occasioned by closure of institutions of higher learning. However, there was limited labour opportunities for other people due to restrictions related to COVID-19 pandemic.

Flooding Flooding, due to the above average rains, affected areas bordering Lake Baringo, Lake 94 and Lake Bogoria. Approximately, 23 percent of land under irrigated agriculture was submerged as well as displacing 683 households resulting to internally displaced persons (IDP) camps in parts of Baringo South Sub County. Farms and on farm crop losses were witnessed in the affected areas. Structural damages on roads and water supply and storage systems were cut off or destroyed while a number of health facilities were destroyed and rendered unusable. Consequently, 11 fatalities were reported (Eight at Chemoe–Yatya and Eldama Ravine, two at Simotwet in Lembus-Perkera and one in Tangulbei). The floods had equally destroyed productive or livelihood assets within their trail that would require effective livelihoods restoration and recovery. Community, sensitization and immediate evacuation of families to safe and higher grounds was ongoing. Heavy flooding witnessed in Chesegon, along the West Pokot-Marakwet border triggered landslide that resulted to scores of deaths, loss of livestock and destruction of tens of acres of farmland.

Fall Army Worm Infestation Fall Army Worm (FAW) affected maize crop production across the cluster. In Kajiado Central and Kajiado South and mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones in Narok at least 30 percent of maize was infested by FAW.

Livestock and crop diseases There was an upsurge of livestock diseases in small stock in Kajiado. Diseases such as Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP), Pestes des Petits Ruminants (PPR), Rift Valley Fever (RVF), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) and Heart water (sheep and goats) were reported. Only ring vaccinations were conducted against PPR and RVF. PPR was reported in the pastoral livelihood zone in Laikipia North while in Narok, suspected cases of PPR, Bluetongue disease, anthrax, persistent cases of FMD, Foot rot, CCPP and Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) were reported in Trans Mara West, Trans Mara East, Narok East and Narok South sub counties. In Nyeri, outbreak of LSD and FMD was also reported.

Invasion by desert locusts Desert locusts invaded parts of Baringo, Laikipia and West Pokot counties but the negative impact on forage and crops was minimal.

2.3.3 Current Food Security Situation The overall integrated food security phase classification for Baringo, Laikipia, Kajiado and West pokot was stressed (IPC II) while Nyeri (Kieni) and Narok was None/Minimal (IPC Phase I). The production of Irish potatoes was within the LTA while that of beans and maize is 62 and 96 percent of the long-term averages (LTA). However, production of tomato and onions under irrigation was both at 94 percent of the LTA while that of maize was 21 percent

40 above the LTA. Maize stocks in the cluster were 86 percent of LTA. However, household maize stocks were 97 percent of the LTA while traders hold 79 percent of LTA. Forage conditions was good in all the livelihood zones across the cluster compared with the normal of fair to good in the same time of the year. The body condition of all livestock was good across all the livelihood zones in the cluster. The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic had affected all the markets operations in the cluster, leading to closure of some, especially livestock markets. However, most of the markets had since resumed normal operations. The average maize price in the cluster was below the LTA and ranged from Ksh. 37 per kilogram in Laikipia to the highest of Ksh. 52 in Narok. The prices of goat ranged from the Ksh. 4,230 in Kajiado to Ksh. 4,750 in Nyeri for a medium-sized goat. Terms of trade were favorable compared to the LTA across the cluster. The proportion of households in the cluster with acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption category averaged at 69.9, 28.6 and 1.5 percent respectively. In July 2020, Reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI) reduced to 13, 3.67 and 1.49 in Baringo, West Pokot and Laikipia Counties respectively. However, in Nyeri and Narok Counties, rCSI was relatively stable at 4.35 and 3.0 respectively. Return distances to domestic water sources in all the livelihood zones declined across the cluster. Water consumption improved in all the livelihood zones across the cluster. The Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) for acute malnutrition conducted in August 2020 classified Kajiado, Laikipia and Narok in the Phase 1 “Acceptable” phase using Mid Arm Circumference (MUAC) data of children 6 to 59 months, collected from sentinel sites with Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates of 0.8, 0.2 and 0.5 percent respectively. West Pokot was classified at Phase 3 “Serious” with a GAM rate of 11.7 percent and East Pokot (Tiaty sub-county) in Baringo at IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 4 “Critical” with a GAM rate of 20.9 percent based on Weight for Height Z-Score (WHZ).

2.3.4 Food Security Trends Indicator Short Rains Assessment, February Long Rains Assessment, July 2020 2020 (Previous Season) (Current season) % maize stocks at 62 % of LTA 236 % of LTA household level Livestock Body Good for all species across the cluster Good for all species across the cluster condition Water consumption 15-25 lpppd 15-25 lpppd Terms of trade 97 kg 93 kg Coping Strategy Index 8 5.3 Price per kg of maize Ksh. 39 Ksh. 47 Food consumption score Acceptable: 87.3 Acceptable: 63 Borderline: 11 Borderline: 34 Poor: 1.7 Poor: 3 Distance to grazing (km) 2.4 2.9

2.3.5 Impact of Drivers on Food and Nutrition Security

2.3.5.1 Crop Production

Rain fed crop production The cluster is mainly dependent on the long rains season for crop production. Crop production contributes 30 percent to food and about 40 percent to cash income for households. The main crops grown in the cluster include maize, beans and Irish potatoes. The area planted under maize and beans was within LTA, while that under Irish potatoes was six percent above the LTA. However, in Kajiado, area under Irish potato decreased due to scarcity of clean certified

41 seed but the projected yields expected to increase slightly due to enhanced long rains. The production for Irish potatoes was within the LTA while that of beans and maize was 62 and 96 percent of the LTA. The production was attributed to timely onset of rainfall, good germination of planted crop, even distribution of moisture and minimal outbreak of crop pests and diseases. Further, farmers heeded on extension advisories to plant drought tolerant and escaping crops in Baringo.

Rain fed Crop Production Crop Area planted Long term average 2020 Long rains Long term average during 2020 Long area planted during the season production during rains season (Ha) long rains season (Ha) production the long rains season 1.Maize 210,325 204,709 4,997,619 5,197,146 2.Beans 110,469 108,501 684,668 1,093,708 3.Potato 21,410 20,104 1,114,420 1,096,483

Irrigated Crop Production The main crops grown under irrigation are bulb onions, tomato and maize. Other crops grown under irrigation include beans and kales. The area under onions was 90 percent of the LTA while that of maize and tomato was seven and 21 percent above the LTA. Production of tomato and onions was both at 94 percent of the LTA while that of maize was 21 percent above the LTA. The increased production was attributed to most farmers grow seed maize, which the relevant companies are offered good prices.

Cereal Stocks The total maize stocks available in the cluster were 86 percent of LTA. Household maize stocks were 97 percent of the LTA while traders hold 79 percent of LTA. The households and traders hold 82 and 93 percent of LTA for sorghum respectively. Restrictive movements, due to COVID-19, hampered food distributions to different markets and centres.

Cereal Stocks in the Cluster Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green gram Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Farmers 511,255 529,210 0 0 2,704 3,281 133 143 Traders 258,926 329,718 31,847 17,520 9,396 10,148 1,276 1,523 Millers 26,181 21,348 0 0 32 50 0 0 NCPB 0 40472 100 600 45000 0 0 0 Total 796,362 920,748 31,947 18,120 57,132 13,479 1,409 1,666

2.3.5.2 Livestock Production Livestock production contributes 22–35 percent to cash income in mixed farming zones, and 40-60 percent in the marginal mixed farming, pastoral and agro pastoral zones. Pasture condition in terms of quality and quantity was good in all the livelihood zones across the cluster compared with the normal of fair to good for the season. The pasture and browse are expected to last for 3-4 months, which is normal for the season. The good forage condition was attributed to the above average long rains that were experienced through the season and cumulative effects of short rain season that had performed equally well across all livelihood zones. There are initiatives for fodder production and utilization of crop residues in the mixed farming, marginal mixed farming and irrigated agriculture livelihood zones. Invasive weeds were

42 limiting access to pastures in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zone and competition with wildlife in parts of Narok County. The COVID-19 pandemic affected pastures access due to restricted movements and interactions amongst the pastoralists.

Pasture and browse situation Livelihood Pasture Browse zone Condition How long to last Condition How long to last (Months) (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Good Good 3-4 3 Good Good 3 3 Farming Marginal Good Fair to 3 3 Good Good 3 3 Mixed good Farming Pastoral Good Fair to 2-3 2-3 Good Good 3-4 3 good

The body condition of all livestock types was good across all the livelihood zones in the cluster. The improvement in body condition was attributed to the above average forage and water resources thereby enhancing livestock productivity. The good livestock body condition enhanced milk production and availability thus positively impacting on household income, nutrition for under-fives and food security. It is expected that the livestock body condition will remain relatively good for the next 2-3 months.

Livestock body condition Livelihood Cattle Sheep Goat Camel zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Marginal Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Mixed Farming Pastoral Good Fair to Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Agro pastoral Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good

The Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) in the medium income households slightly declined below normal at 8-20, 3- 20 and 2-6 compared to normal of 10-21, 5-10 and 3-7 in the pastoral, agro pastoral and mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. The decline was due to breed improvement from many indigenous breeds. However, households in pastoral and agro pastoral livelihood zones diversified from keeping large herds of cattle to small stock (sheep and goats) due to their tolerance to dry spells after having previous experiences of cattle losses during prolonged droughts. For poor income households, the TLUs remained stable compared with LTA across all the livelihood zones. However, there was slight improvements in the marginal mixed farming due to reduced livestock marketing activities as result of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.

Tropical livestock units Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming zones 2-6 1-6 3-10 3-10 Marginal mixed farming 3 3 4 4 Pastoral 8-10 5-10 7-20 7-21

Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households Current Normal Current Normal Agro pastoral 3-20 4-7 6-21 6-21 Irrigated Cropping 2-3 5 5 5

Milk production at household levels was normal compared LTA for most of the livelihood zones in the cluster. However, there was an increase of milk production in the agro pastoral livelihood zones by 25 percent of LTA and was attributed to the adequate and quality livestock feeds that were available in various types and forms, good body condition and reduced distances to water for livestock. Milk consumption and prices remained stable compared to LTA, with 2-4 Litres /household /day being consumed in the household. The prices range was Ksh. 27- 75 across all the livelihood zones which was normal for the season.

Milk production, consumption and prices Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk consumption Prices (Ksh)/Litre (Litres)/Household (Litres) per Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed farming zones 3-20 6-20 2-5 2-5 27-60 30-60 Marginal mixed 4-7 7 2-3 3 25-30 30 farming Pastoral 1-10 2-10 1-3 2-4 50-75 40-60 Agro pastoral 2-15 4-12 1-3 2-3 60 40-60 Irrigated Cropping 5-7 8 2-3 2 50 50

The main water sources across the livelihood zones include lakes, rivers, streams, water pans, dams, shallow wells, boreholes, piped water and springs. The current water situation was normal across all livelihood zones due to above normal rainfall performance which resulted in high recharge rate of between 60–70 percent. Return trekking distances between water sources and grazing areas were below normal to normal in all livelihood zones. Water across the livelihood zones is likely to last for 2-4 months, which was normal for the season.

Return trekking distances and duration to last Livelihood zone Return trekking distances-km Expected duration to last (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming zones <1-2 2 1-4 3-4 Marginal mixed farming 3 3 2-4 2 Pastoral 2-5 3 -8 1-4 2-3 Agro pastoral 1-8 2-6 2-3 3-4 Irrigated Cropping 1-2 1-2 Permanent Permanent

Watering frequency for all the livestock species in all the livelihood zones was daily; except for pastoral livelihood zone where pastoralists are skipping one day due to longer return trekking distances between grazing areas and watering points.

Watering Frequency (days per week) Livelihood Cattle Camels Sheep Goats zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed farming 7 7 - - 7 7 7 7 Marginal mixed 7 7 - - 7 7 7 7 farming

Livelihood Cattle Camels Sheep Goats zone Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Pastoral 3-7 7 2 2 3-7 7 3-7 7 Agro-pastoral 7 7 2 2 7 7 7 7 Irrigated 7 7 - - 7 7 7 7 cropping

There were no livestock migrations within the cluster associated with pasture and water deficiency. Livestock migration is not anticipated in the next three months due to sufficient availability of forage and water. There were no major livestock disease outbreaks reported within the cluster during the period under review. However, cases of FMD, LSD, CCPP and CBPP, East Coast Fever were reported in the cluster. The landslides/floods that occurred at Chesegon in Central Pokot sub-county between April and May resulted to livestock deaths in the affected area.

2.3.5.3 Market Performance The Covid-19 pandemic had affected all the markets in the cluster, leading to closure of some, which were mostly for livestock. However, most of the markets had since resumed normal operations. The traded commodities were sources both locally within the cluster as well as outside, including cross border imports from Tanzanian. The volumes traded were lower than normal for both food commodities, non-food commodities and livestock. The main commodities traded were maize, beans, Irish potatoes, sorghum, millet, sweet potatoes, rice, green vegetables and livestock.

Market Prices The average maize price in the cluster was below the long-term average and ranged from Ksh. 37 per kilogram in Laikipia to the highest of Ksh. 52 in Narok. The below average prices were partly attributed to low demand resulting from Covid-19 pandemic related restrictions especially movement along the border with the Republic of Uganda which affected markets in West Pokot. Closure of schools also contributed to the low demand for maize, as schools were major consumers of the commodity. In Laikipia however, the low prices were attributed to steady supply and availability of households’ maize stocks. On the other hand, goat prices were higher than long term averages across the cluster mainly due to improvement in rangeland resources such as water and forage as a result of good rainfall performance. The prices ranged from the Ksh. 4,230 in Kajiado to Ksh. 4,750 in Nyeri for a medium-sized goat. However, very low prices were reported in Baringo County where a medium sized goat retailed at an average price of Ksh. 2,787 albeit above the long-term average price of Ksh. 2,614, which is typical.

Terms of Trade Terms of trade were favorable compared to 140 July, 2020 the long-term averages across the cluster 120 implying that households had higher 100 purchasing power. Within the cluster, 80 Laikipia recorded the most favorable terms of trade where households were able to buy 60 116 kilograms of maize from the sale of a 40 medium sized goat compared to the long- 20

term average of 78 kilograms (Figure 2.8). 0 from sale of a goat a of sale from Baringo on the other hand reported the least Laikipia Nyeri West Narok Kajiado Baringo Pokot favorable terms of trade due to the low goat purchased maize of Kilograms prices reported in the county. Households Figure 2.8: Comparative terms of trade in the cluster

45 were able to buy 59 kilograms of maize from the sale of a medium sized goat compared to the long-term average of 52 kilograms in Baringo County.

2.3.5.4 Water access and availability The major sources of water in the cluster are rivers, water pans/dams, boreholes and piped water schemes. Springs are major water sources in the mixed farming zones of West Pokot, Baringo and Kajiado counties. The sources are normal at this time of the year. However, at this time of the year, shallow wells were major water sources. Most sources were recharged up to 80-90 percent of their capacity due to above average long rain performance during the season and current water storage is expected to last for 4-6 months as normal compared to the normal 2-3 months. However, recharge of open water sources was up to 70 percent in Kajiado and current water storage is expected to last for the next 2-3 months which is normal at this time of the year. Pans/dams in Kajiado were 50-70 percent full. Rivers are experiencing above average flows as the county continues to receive off-season rains except in Nyeri where flows are below average due to illegal upstream abstractions. Seasonal rivers in Kajiado had begun drying up. Return distances to domestic water sources was normal at less than one kilometer in the mixed farming zones, 1-2 kilometers in the agropastoral areas of Kajiado, Narok, Laikipia, marginal mixed farming zone of Nyeri and pastoral areas of Laikipia.

Return distances reduced to 3-4 kilometers compared to the normal 4-6 kilometers in the pastoral areas of Kajiado, Narok, pastoral and agropastoral areas of Baringo and West Pokot. Households are able to collect water within five minutes across the cluster. However, waiting time was higher in the pastoral and agropastoral parts of Kajiado and Narok where households are collecting water between 15 and 30 minutes which was within the normal range. A small number of households relying on water supplied by vendors were buying water at Ksh. 10-20 shillings per 20 litres jerrycan to take care of transportation charges which was normal at this time of the year.

Water consumption remained stable at 30-40 litres per person per day in the mixed farming zones across the cluster, agropastoral zone of Narok and marginal mixed farming zone of Nyeri and Laikipia. Water consumption improved from 10 to 20-25 litres per person per day in the agropastoral and pastoral livelihood zones of Baringo, Laikipia, Narok and Kajiado counties. Water consumption improved also from the normal 10-12 litres to 15 litres per person per day in the agropastoral zones of West Pokot, pastoral areas of Narok, pastoral and agropastoral of Kajiado.

2.3.5.5 Food Consumption The proportion of households in acceptable, borderline and poor food consumption category averaged at 69.9, 28.6 and 1.5 percent respectively. An improvement in household food consumption patterns were attributed to on-going harvesting of crops, improved livestock productivity and enhanced household purchasing power that boosted access to diversified foods. Household in acceptable food consumption category were higher in Narok and West Pokot counties at 95.5 and 81.3 percent respectively compared to 73.3, 73, 53.4 and 43 in Baringo, Kajiado, Laikipia and Nyeri counties respectively.

2.3.5.6 Coping Strategies In July 2020, Baringo, West Pokot and Laikipia Counties posted a reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) of 13, 3.67 and 1.49 respectively. The index had reduced slightly in Laikipia County compared with a similar time last year when it was recorded as 4.3 implying that households were engaged fewer consumption-based coping strategies and of less severity. In June 2020, the rCSI in Nyeri, Narok and Kajiado Counties was posted as 4.67, 3.2 and 5.44

46 respectively. It had remained relatively stable in Nyeri and Narok Counties compared with May where indices of 4.35 and 3.0 had been recorded implying that there had been no significant change in the frequency or severity of consumption-based coping strategies engaged.

2.3.5.7 Health and Nutrition

Nutrition situation The Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) for acute malnutrition conducted in August 2020 classified Kajiado, Laikipia and Narok in the Phase 1 “Acceptable” phase using Mid Arm Circumference (MUAC) data of children 6 to 59 months, collected from sentinel sites with Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates of 0.8, 0.2 and 0.5 percent respectively (Figure 5). West Pokot was classified at Phase 3 “Serious” with a GAM rate of 11.7 percent and East Pokot (Tiaty sub-county) in Baringo at IPC Acute Malnutrition (AMN) Phase 4 “Critical” with a GAM rate of 20.9 percent based on Weight for Height Z-Score (WHZ) from historical data. There was inadequate data to make phase classification for acute malnutrition for Nyeri North (Kieni). The areas are likely to remain in the current phases during the projection period. The proportion of children with MUAC less than 135mm was lower in Baringo, Kajiado and Narok compared to the long-term average (2015-2019). Data was not available for the rest of the counties due to interruption of screening of children in the sentinel sites caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in the country during the current season of analysis. On Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) and Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM) trends, indicated a decline in the number of children admitted in the treatment sites, which could be attributed to reduced community screening and defaulter tracing due to restriction on movements as a Covid-19 containment measure. Lack of nutrition commodities for treatment of malnutrition was cited in all counties in the cluster

Morbidity and Mortality There was a generally decrease in cases of upper respiratory tract infections, diarrhea and malaria across the cluster (Figure 2.9). The reduction can be attributed to avoidance of seeking health services in health facilities caused by fear of contracting COVID-19 pandemic by patients. Hand washing might have led to reduction in diarrhea and upper respiratory tract infections while physical/social distancing and wearing of facemasks might have led to reduction in upper respiratory tract infections. However, there were more cases of malaria in Baringo County during the period of January to June 2020 compared to the same period in 2019. The increase could be attributed to the floods experienced in the cluster during the long 8000 25000 20000 6000 15000 4000 10000 2000 5000

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Mar-20 May-20 Tiaty/East Pokot Kajiado Tiaty/East Pokot Kajiado Laikipia Narok Laikipia Narok Figure 2.9: Morbidity trends for URTI and Diarrhoea

47 rains season. An outbreak of Measles was reported in Alale Ward, West Pokot County. The outbreak is active, and measures are being put in place to contain it

Effects of COVID -19 Pandemic on Essential Services Covid-19 pandemic posed new challenges in the health care systems across the cluster. The first confirmed case in Kenya was in Kajiado County in March 2020. The Government through the ministry of Health announced containment measures which had mixed effects to health service provision. The containment measures were such as improved hygiene, social/physical distancing and use of facemasks have received more attention leading to reduction in general morbidity, and health service provision has been affected negatively. There has been reduced visits to the health facilities, specialized clinics and physical counselling were suspended which led to reduction in coverage and increased defaulter rates in most of the health programs. Community programs such as health outreaches, mother-to-mother support groups and community dialogue and action days were suspended across the cluster. Closing of schools affected Malezi bora activities in Early Childhood Development Centres (ECDCs) leading to low vitamin A supplementation coverage. Livestock markets were closed affecting food access across the county. Priorities were geared towards COVID-19 pandemic, with nutrition services receiving less attention especially in community screening and treatment of malnutrition thus increasing defaulter rates. Emergency preparedness and response committees and other coordination forums have been active across the cluster. There is a likelihood of increased cases of acute malnutrition in the cluster due to increase and spread of COVID-19 pandemic in the cluster.

Immunization and Micronutrient Supplementation Immunization coverage was low across the cluster. All the counties recorded immunization ccoverage less than 50 percent. The low coverage was attributed to poor health seeking behavior and long distance to health facilities, especially in Narok and West Pokot which range from from 10 to 40 kilometres. The effects of COVID-19 pandemic containment measures, stock outs of anttigens and suspension of outreach services across the cluster also contributed greatly to the low immunization coverage.

Vitamin A supplementation coverage for children aged 6 to 59 months drastically reduced during the season of analysis in 2020 compared to a similar period in 2019 across the cluster. All the counties registered a coverage lower than 50 percnt except Baringo which had a coverage of 62 percent (Figure 8). The coverage was much lower than the national target of 80 percent. The distruption of outreach services for hard to reach areas, suspension of Malezi Bora activities in May and closure of schools and Early Childhood Development Centres (ECDCs) centres occassioned by COVID-19 pandemic prevention guidelines closed avenues which have traditonally been utilized to reach the children. Attendance of maternal child health clinic was also very low as a result of fear of contracting the virus from health facilities. The situation is likely to remain the same if the virus is not controlled in the projection period.

Water, Hygiene and Sanitation Access to quality water was desirable in controlling water borne and water related diseases. Nyeri North and Narok had the highest proportion of the population accessing water from improved sources at 45 percent and 38 percent respectively. In Tiaty, only 15 percent of the population access water from improved sources, which was the lowest proportion in the cluster. Water treatment was generally low across the cluster with Tiaty having the lowest at 4.4 percent, West Pokot and Kajiado at 10 percent and 39.6 percent respectively. Latrine coverage was generally low for the cluster with exception Nyeri having the highest at 80 percent

48 followed by Kajiado at 52.4 percent, West Pokot at 48.7 percent and the least coverage area was Tiaty at 6.6 percent. Hand washing practices at all critical times remained sub-optimal with Tiaty having the poorest at 2.2 percent followed by West Pokot at 7.5 percent and Kajiado at 15 percent. The cluster therefore experience poor water and sanitation practices, which contribute to high waterborne morbidity including diarrhea, malaria and dysentery. Covering long distance to water source resulted in more time spent in search of water ultimately affecting childcare giving practices, which have a major contribution on acute malnutrition. COVID -19 pandemic is likely to contribute to improved hand washing at four critical moments, due to the intensified sensitization on COVID 19 pandemic measures as well as installed hand washing facilities at all business premises.

2.3.5.8 Education

Access: Enrolment rate There was a general increase in enrolment by eight, four and ten percent in ECD, primary and secondary schools respectively within the cluster (Table 10). The enrolment increased due to sensitization of parents by stakeholders, school feeding programs implemented through parents and partners and 100 percent transition policy initiated by the government. However, Narok County witnessed a decline in ECD enrolment during the period under review.

Enrolment Rate

Term I 2020 (includes new Increase % Term III 2019 students registered and drop- or Increase outs since Term I 2020) Enrollment Decrease or Variation decrease № Boys № Girls Total № Boys № Girls Total

ECD 119,709 117,058 236,767 125,554 129,724 255,278 18,511 8% Primary 429,016 414,897 843,913 448,199 433,053 881,252 37,339 4% Secondary 106,914 101,927 208,841 117,950 111,601 229,551 20,710 10%

Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Schools There were a few schools identified for use as isolation centers in the cluster. Access to E- Learning by learners within the cluster was very low due to poor internet and radio/television connectivity, lack of smartphones, computers and television sets. However, awareness among parents was also low. Cases of teenage pregnancies were reported across the cluster, with more vulnerable groups being girls in class six, seven and eight in primary schools and form one and two in secondary schools. These cases will likely exacerbate dropout rates in 2021 once schools’ resume.

Effects of Long Rains on Schools The above average long rains performance resulted to destruction and flooding of school infrastructure in the cluster. A total of 89, 138, 84 and 108 schools in West Pokot, Baringo, Nyeri, and Laikipia respectively were destroyed. The most affected facilities were classroom walls, roofs and toilets.

School Feeding Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMP), Community School Meals programmes (CSMP) and Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP) are the dominant school feeding initiatives across the cluster. A total of 298 primary schools, benefitted from these programmes across the cluster. However, late disbursement for HGSMP was reported in Nyeri (Kieni Sub County) in May 2018. Schools that had food stocks before the closure due to COVID-19 pandemic.

Learning Continuity The outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic resulted to closure of all schools in the county. However, learning continued through varied methods. About 12, 49 and 82 percent in ECD, primary and secondary respectively used varied E-Learning methods. However, lack of radios, mobile phones, TVs, internet connectivity and unaware of any existing E-Learning platforms were limiting access to E-Learning programs. Lack of power connectivity and high illiteracy levels and ignorance among parents were some of the reasons that hampered E-Learning platforms in the cluster. In addition, livestock herding among learners who are at home was hampering their participation in available E-Learning platforms.

Inter-Sector Links

Water, Sanitation and Hygiene A number of schools were reported to have inadequate functioning latrines and access to clean water within 100m of the school in the cluster. Notable, in Laikipia county 223 schools have inadequate functional latrines, 563 schools with no hand washing facilities and 470 schools with no access to safe water or any functional source of water within 100 metres. In Nyeri, county most of the schools had piped water supply and adequate water storage facilities. Majority of schools had adequate functional latrines. There were few schools in need of adequate hand washing facilities. There is need to provide hand washing facilities before schools’ re-opens. Despite girls being at home due to closure of schools, they continue to be provided with menstrual support or dignity kits though the Ministry of Interior by chiefs who organizes for sanitation barazas to issue to girls.

2.4 The South Eastern Marginal Agricultural Livelihood Cluster

2.4.1 Cluster Background Information The cluster consists of Makueni, Kitui, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka-Nithi and Meru (North) counties. The cluster covers an area of 49,039.4 square kilometers with an estimated population of 3,556,767 persons (KNBS 2019 census). The main livelihood zones are; Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone with a population of 65 percent and Mixed Farming livelihood zone accounting for 26 percent of the population (Figure 1). The main sources of income include; Crop production which account for 40 percent, Livestock production at 35 percent while Employment account for 25 percent of household Figure 2.10: Southeastern marginal income agricultural cluster livelihood zones

2.4.2 Current Drivers of Food Insecurity

Rainfall performance The cluster had early onset of the 2020 long rains season except in Embu (Mbeere) County that had timely onset. The rainfall amount received was 141 – 200 percent of the normal across the cluster. In marginal pockets of Kitui South, Igembe North and Tigania East received rainfall amounts of between 201 and 350 percent of normal. Spatial distribution was even across the cluster. However, temporal distribution was varying from good to fair except in Kitui County which had poor temporal distribution. Early cessation was experienced in Kitui and Meru (North) counties while in Tharaka Nithi and Embu (Mbeere) counties, cessation was timely in the second dekad of May 2020.

COVID-19 Pandemic The measures instituted by the Government to contain the spread of corona virus that included restriction of movement, ban on social gatherings and nationwide curfew resulted in loss of livelihoods, underutilization of health facilities and consequently health services such as immunization, deworming and vitamin A supplementation. Several markets in Tharaka were temporary closed while in Meru, miraa business was negatively affected by the nationwide curfew and movement restrictions.

Livestock Disease and Crop Pests Lumpy skin diseases (LSD) were reported across the cluster resulting in fatality of about 24 cattle in parts of Kitui county. Clinical signs of Foot and Mouth Diseases (FMD) and Newcastle were reported in Tigania East and West in the months of June and May. Isolated cases of contagious caprine pleuropneumonia (CCPP) affecting 533 goats were reported in Tseikuru in Kitui resulting in 40 deaths of goats. Fall Army Worm (FAW) and Mealybugs infestation on maize and other cereal crops were reported in Tharaka Nithi and Meru (North) counties.

Desert locust invasion Desert locusts invaded farms and grasslands in Kiambere, Muminji, Thawa and Mavuria wards in Embu (Mbeere) County. Though the impact of the locust destruction was minimal, some farmers feared the future effects and therefore did not expand their farms during the long rains season. The acreage under cultivation for various crops reduced with a resultant decline in overall crop production. This was observed in the areas of Kiambere, Mbeeti South and Mavuria wards.

2.4.3 Current Food Security Situation The overall Integrated Food Security Classification (IPC) for the cluster is stressed (IPC Phase 2) with mixed farming zones classified in None/Minimal phase (IPC Phase 1). Maize stocks held by farmers are 122 percent and 17 percent above LTA in Kitui and Meru (North) counties respectively. In Embu (Mbeere) and Tharaka Nithi counties, farmers are holding nine (9) and 62 percent below LTA respectively. Forage condition was good across the cluster save for Embu (Mbeere) County that was fair to poor across the livelihood zones. Livestock body condition was good in the cluster except parts of Embu (Mbeere) County that was poor. Maize prices were ranging between Ksh 31 – 35 per kilogram and below LTA by 10 and 19 percent. Goats prices were 13 – 46 percent above LTA across the cluster. Terms of Trade were favorable as the sale of medium sized goat would purchase between 126 and 187 kilograms of maize. Average water consumption was 20 – 40 litres per person per day across the cluster. About 85 percent of the households within the cluster had acceptable food consumption score while 15.6 percent and 0.7 percent of the households had borderline and poor food consumption scores respectively. The mean reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) for the cluster was 4.7 implying

51 that households are engaging in less severe coping mechanisms. The proportion of children under five at risk of malnutrition based on (Mid Upper Arm Circumference) MUAC was ranging between 3 – 6.6 percent within the cluster.

2.4.4 Food Security Trends Indicator Short Rains, February 2020 Long Rains Assessment, July 2020 Percent maize stocks at 99 of LTA 92% of LAT household level Livestock Body condition Good Good - Fair Water consumption 20 to 30 lpppd 20 – 40 l/p/p/d Terms of trade 111 140.25 Coping strategy index 2.2 4.7 Price per kg of maize Kshs 36 Ksh 31 - 35

Food consumption score Acceptable: 92 Acceptable: 83.8 Borderline: 8 Borderline: 15.6 Poor: 0 Poor: 0.7 Distance to grazing (km) 2 1 - 6

2.4.5 Impact of Drivers on Food and Nutrition Security

2.4.5.1 Crop Production The cluster is mainly dependent on the short rains for crop production. The main food crops grown are; maize, green grams and cow peas. Other crops grown include sorghum, beans, millet and pigeon peas.

Rain fed Crop Production The area planted under rain fed was 83, 84 and 92 percent of LTA for cowpeas, maize and green grams respectively. Production of green grams and maize was at 93 and 95 percent of the LTA while that of cowpeas was within the LTA. The decrease in the area planted and overall production was attributed to the offseason rains from short rain season that prevented land preparation in readiness for planting during the long rain season. In Tharaka, lucrative market for sorghum has been a motivational factor in increasing production. In Embu, the production of maize and beans decreased by 50 and 25 percent as a result of abrupt early cessation of the long rains while the production of green grams increased occasioned by less water requirement and the availability of inputs at household level due to the previous support from KCEP CRAL- cereal enhancement programme.

Rain fed Crop Production Crop Ha planted Long Term Average 2020 Production Long Long Term Average 2020 Long during Long rains rains (90 kg bags) Production Short rains season (Ha) Projected/Actual rains season

Maize 128,527 152,774 1,087,557 1,139,279

Green grams 78,838 85,346 273,210 293,461

Cow peas 51,303 61,483 214,163 210,959

Irrigated Crop Production The area under irrigation for tomato and watermelons was eight and 47 percent above the LTA while that of kales was 52 percent of the LTA. Production of watermelons and kales was 92 and 96 percent of LTA while that of tomatoes was 11 percent above the LTA. The increase was attributed to good rainfall performance and increased acreage under the crops. Youthful farmers have ventured in irrigated farming on the realization that vegetable production generates money within a short period. The restrictions imposed due to the COVID-19 Pandemic affected availability and access to farm inputs due to restricted distribution of goods. However, the availability of labour improved due to closure of learning institutions boosting production from the expansion of the irrigated area. In Tharaka, movement restriction as a result of COVID-19 caused disruption of market for papaya and bananas grown at the irrigation scheme in South Tharaka causing post-harvest losses.

Cereal Stocks The total sorghum and maize stocks are 6 and 7 percent above the LTA while that of green grams is 88 percent of LTA. Farmers held 34 and 37 percent of sorghum and maize above the LTA. The traders held 74, 95 and 97 percent of LTA for sorghum, green grams and maize respectively. The stocks in the cluster are expected to last for 3-4 month compared to the normal 2-3 months. Farmers maize stock was cumulative of stock from short rain season 2019 and long rain season 2020 in Meru North. However, in the marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, the stocks will last less than one month in Makueni.

Cereal Stocks Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green gram

Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA

Farmers 523,786 382,147 18,461 30,437 159,927 119,245 136,584 163,434

Traders 357,097 369,727 1,282,508 404,658 43,780 59,449 81,925 86,694

Millers 45,002 43,400 2,000 2,000 1,950 15,400 4,000 2,500

NCPB 0 66,075 968 0 0 0 0 0

Total 925,885 861,349 1,303,937 437,095 205,657 194,094 222,509 252,628

2.4.5.2 Livestock Production The main livestock species bred in the cluster include cattle (dairy and local), sheep, goats, poultry and donkeys. Livestock production contributes 15-70, 15-45 and 15-60 percent to cash income in the marginal mixed farming, mixed farming and rain fed agriculture and agro pastoral livelihood zones respectively. The pasture and browse situation was good and was comparable to normal across the cluster except Embu County which was fair to poor in mixed and marginal mixed farming livelihood zones. The good forage condition was attributed to the good performance of the 2019 short rains. The available pasture and browse is expected to last for between 2-4 months which is normal.

Pasture and browse situation Livelihood zone Pasture Condition How long to last Browse condition How long to last (Months) (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming Good Good 2-3 3 Good Good 2-4 3

Livelihood zone Pasture Condition How long to last Browse condition How long to last (Months) (Months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Marginal Mixed Farming Good Good 1-3 2 Good Good 1-3 2.5 Rain fed Good Good 2-3 2-3 Good Good 3-4 2-3 Agro-pastoral Good Good 2-3 2 Good Good 3 2 Mixed farming- Good Good 3 3 Good Good 3 3 livestock and food crop Mixed farming- Good Good 2 3 Good Good 3 3 coffee/dairy

The livestock body condition for all species across the cluster was good which is normal for the season. The good body condition was attributed to good forage condition and availability of water. However, the body condition for cattle was ranging from good to fair and fair to poor compared with good normally in the mixed farming and marginal mixed farming livelihood zone of Embu County. The Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) for poor and medium income households remained stable compared with normal in all livelihood zones across the cluster. The stability was due to the good rainfall performance which enhanced vegetation growth and water availability as well as own food production at household level thus minimizing livestock sales to purchase food commodities.

Tropical livestock units (TLU) Livelihood zone Poor income households Medium income households

Current Normal Current Normal

Mixed Farming 2-3 1-3 2-10 2-6 Marginal Mixed Farming 1-5 1-5 5-10 4-8 Mixed farming coffee/dairy 1 1 5 5 Mixed farming 2 2 2.4 2.5 crop/livestock Rain-fed 2-3 2-3 3-5 4-8 Agro-pastoral 3-4 4-5 >10 >10

Livestock birth rates and calving intervals were normal across the livelihood zones. Milk production slightly increased by 35 percent above LTA across all the livelihood zones (Table 6). The increase was due to improved availability of forage and water. The increase in milk production raised consumption at household level across all the livelihood zones compared to LTA. Following the improved milk production in the cluster, the average price per litre remained stable and was comparable to normal.

Increased milk production was reported in Makueni, Meru North and Tharaka though marginal at 1 – 1.5 litres compared to the long-term average of 1 litre. Meru north reported highest increase of 2 litres compared to 1 litre normally. However, decline in milk production was recorded in Mbeere at 1.5 litres compared to 3 litres. Milk consumption remained unchanged or increased marginally across the counties. The marginal increase in milk production was attributed to availability of forage resulting to improved livestock body condition.

Milk production, consumption and price Milk Production Milk consumption Livelihood zone Prices (Ksh)/Litre (Litres)/Household (Litres) per Household

Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed Farming 1 -7 1-5 0.6-3 0.5 – 3. 40 - 60 50-70 Marginal Mixed Farming 0.6 - 2 1 -2 0.5-2 0.25-1.5 40 -70 40 -60 Mixed Farming 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.75 50 50 Coffee/Dairy Mixed farming livestock 1.6 1 0.8 0.5 50 60 and food crop Rain Fed Agriculture 2.5 -4 2-3 2-3 2 50 - 70 50 Agro pastoral 2 2 2 1 50 50

Water for Livestock The current water source for livestock across the different livelihood zones were the boreholes, piped water, seasonal rivers, dams, shallow wells, water pans, earth dams, streams. Return trekking distances to watering points was normal across all livelihood zones. The water sources are expected to last between 2-3 months compared with 1-3 months normally. The increase in duration is attributed to the good recharge of most water sources. The watering frequencies for all livestock were daily which was normal across the cluster.

Water and trekking distances for livestock Livelihood zone Return trekking Expected duration Watering frequency distances (Km) to last (Months) (days)

Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Farming 0.5-5 0.5 -3 3 2-3 Daily Daily Marginal Mixed Farming 3-10 2-10 2-4 1.5-3 Daily Daily Mixed farming 0.5-1 0.2 -1 3 2 Daily Daily coffee/dairy Mixed farming 1 1-2 2 2 Daily Daily crop/livestock Rain-fed 1-3.5 1-2 3 2 Daily Daily Agro-pastoral Zones 4-6 5-6 2 1 Daily Daily

There were no in or out migration to other counties within the cluster, except some earlier than normal in-migration of livestock from Tana River County to Kitui county which was reported in (Tseikuru, Ngomeni, Nguni, Endau/Malalani, Voo/Kyamatu and Mutha wards) in search of water and pasture.Cases of disease outbreaks like Foot and mouth disease (FMD ), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), rabies, Newcastle Disease (NCD) and Contagious Caprine Pleuro-Pneumonia (CCPP) in goats which are endemic across the cluster were reported.

2.4.5.3 Market Performance All the markets in the cluster were affected by regulation government on Covid 19 pandemic, leading to closure of some markets which were mainly for livestock and at the same time affecting volumes being traded. The main commodities traded in the cluster were cereals, livestock, maize, beans, rice, pigeon peas, cow peas, green grams, millet, vegetables, fruits. Other than in Kitui which had well provisioned markets, the rest of the markets had low sales volumes compared to normal times. Most of the traded commodities were sourced locally while the rest were sourced outside the cluster including across the Tanzanian border.

Market Prices Maize prices in the cluster showed a decline from the beginning of the year up to March- April. Thereafter the prices showed varied trends across the counties within the cluster but remained below the long-term average. The stability in prices was attributed to increased stocks at household level Figure 2.11: Comparative maize price trends across the cluster which reduced the demand of the commodity from the market.

2.4.5.4 Water Access and Availability The major water sources for domestic use in the cluster were rivers, boreholes, pans/dams, rock catchment, shallow wells, springs and piped water systems. Pans/ dams were recharged to about 70-90 percent of their capacities across the cluster except in marginal mixed farming livelihood zone of Kitui where surface water were recharged to 60 percent of their capacities. Kune and Mugwanjogu earth dams in Embu were washed away due to excessive rainfall. Water levels in most water pans/ dams have fallen to about 40 percent of their capacity in Kitui and Makueni due to erosion of the spillways and high siltation levels. Pans/dams with water are expected to last about 2-3 months except in Makueni and Kitui and expected last for less than two months. Despite good recharge in Meru North, rivers are flowing at 25-40 percent of their normal flows due to illegal upstream abstractions for irrigation purposes. Major seasonal streams that have dried up in Tharaka include Gituma, Nkararu, Kiiji and Muthangachwe. Low flows have resulted to high concentration of humans in boreholes serving Ndumuru, Buluu and Mariara in the agro-pastoral livelihood zones of Meru North.

Return distances to water sources in the Mixed farming zones are within the normal range of less than one kilometer while return distances are normal at 2-4Km in the Marginal Mixed farming zones. Isolated areas in the marginal mixed farming zones of Kitui, Embu and Meru North have recorded high return distances of up to 5-10Km. Waiting time is within the normal range of 10-20 minutes across the cluster. However, the normal waiting time in the Mixed farming and Marginal Mixed farming zones of Kitui is 20-40 minutes. Water consumption range from 30-40 litres per person per day (lppd) in the Mixed farming zones of Kitui, Embu and Tharaka Nithi. Water consumption has increased in the Agro-pastoral and Marginal Mixed livelihood zones from the normal 15-20lppd to 20-30 lppd except for the Agro pastoral of Meru North where consumption has remained within the normal range of 10-15 lppd.

Water consumption and demand increased due to sensitization to wash hands regularly as part of the measures to reduce spread of COVID-19 pandemic across the cluster. The cost of water is within the normal ranges of Ksh.2-5 per 20 litres jerrycan. Water vendors in isolated marginal mixed farming areas of Meru North, Kitui and Tharaka are selling water at Ksh. 10-20 per 20

56 litre jerican. Water treatment across the cluster remains low. Latrine coverage ranges between 80 and 95 percent across the cluster.

2.4.5.5 Food Consumption Household in acceptable food consumption category improved across the cluster by 17 percent to stand at 79.5 percent in July 2020 compared to 62.9 percent in July 2019 and this was attributed to availability of diversified foods at household level and favourable terms of trade which impacted positively on household purchasing power and access to diversified diet. Majority of the households were consuming a normal of 2-3 meals per day which consisted more than three food groups; mainly cereals, pulses, vegetables and fruits. Only 17.3 and 1.3 percent of households had moderate and poor food consumption score respectively. Moreover, Meru, Kitui and Embu counties had the highest number of households with acceptable food consumption score at 87, 86.5 and 80.8 percent respectively compared to 77 and 66 percent for Tharaka Nthi and Makueni counties respectively.

2.4.5.6 Coping Strategies The reducing coping strategy index (rCSI) averaged 3.5, 8.45, 1.9 and 8.7 in Kitui, Makueni, Tharaka and Meru North Counties respectively. The most commonly used coping strategies across the cluster included consumption of less preferred/less expensive food reduced portion sizes, skipping of meals and borrowing. Most of the households were not engaging in any livelihood-based coping strategies in the cluster. In Tharaka County, approximately 98 percent were not engaging any coping strategy while two percent engaged stressed coping strategies. In Meru North County, an estimated 87 percent had not engaged any coping strategy while 10

Figure 2.12: OTP and SFP admissions for SAM and MAM cases (Source; MOH/KHIS) percent had engaged crisis strategies. In Embu County, 66.7 percent had not engaged any coping strategy while the remaining 33.3 percent had engaged stressed coping strategies.

2.4.5.7 Health and Nutrition

Nutrition Status According to IPC Acute Malnutrition classification, most counties (Mbeere, Meru North, Makueni and Tharaka) could not be classified due to data limitation. However, Kitui County was classified as Acceptable level (IPC phase 1) with a GAM by MUAC of 0.9% (0.3-2.5, 95% C.I). Makueni was classified as Acceptable level (IPC phase 1) based on historical data. Based on contributing factors, Kitui is projected to remain in Phase 1 while Makueni is projected to move to phase 2. Trends in Outpatient therapeutic programme (OTP) and Supplementary Feeding Programme (SFP) Admissions is as shown in Figure 5. The performance of IMAM

57 program in Makueni, Kitui and Meru were varied and poor in 2020 compared to 2019. The cure rates were below sphere standard (>75%) with Meru, Makueni and Kitui at 52.5, 57.1 ad 65.1 percent respectively. In addition, defaulter rates were more than a third across the three counties compared to standard (<15%). Meru recorded highest defaulter rate of 36.5 percent with Makueni at 32.5 percent while Kitui recorded 30.5 percent. However, death rates were with acceptable ranges in the three counties (<10%). Makueni, Kitui and Meru reported 2.2, 1.9 and 1.8 percent death rates respectively.

Morbidity and Mortality Patterns Notable decline and or stable trend across the cluster was observed for period January – March 2020 for diarrhoea and Acute respiratory infections. The sharp decline in the month of April could be attributed impact of COVID – 19 pandemic which resulted in majority of people shunning seeking health services for fear of contracting the disease. However, the months of May and June recorded an increase which could be attributed to increased cases owing to the rain season and cold weather as well as households seeking treatment. Few cases of Malaria were recorded in the cluster. COVID – 19 affected all the clusters albeit variation in cases since the first case was reported in March 2020. Based on data available on 27th July 2020, Makueni was leading with 82 case, while Tharaka Nithi reported three cases. Meru, Kitui and Embu had cumulatively reported 32, 22 and 8 cases respectively. Control measures put in place have impacted all sectors with health sector experiencing drop in health seeking for routine services across the counties. There were no disease outbreaks reported during the analysis period.

Immunization and Micronutrients Supplementation Notable decline and or stable trend across the cluster was observed for period January – March 2020 for diarrhoea and Acute respiratory infections. The sharp decline in the month of April could be attributed impact of COVID – 19 pandemic which resulted in majority of people shunning seeking health services for fear of contracting the disease. However, the months of May and June recorded an increase which could be attributed to increased cases owing to the rain season and cold weather as well as households seeking treatment. Few cases of Malaria were recorded in the cluster. COVID – 19 affected all the clusters albeit variation in cases since the first case was reported in March 2020. Based on data available on 27th July 2020, Makueni was leading with 82 case, while Tharaka Nithi reported three cases. Meru, Kitui and Embu had cumulatively reported 32, 22 and 8 cases respectively. Control measures put in place have impacted all sectors with health sector experiencing drop in health seeking for routine services across the counties. There were no disease outbreaks reported during the analysis period.

Vitamin A supplementation in the first semester of 2020 recorded a significant reduction and was below 50 percent for all counties except Makueni (72%) compared to similar period in 2019. Meru and Kitui reported the lowest coverage of 21 and 30 percent respectively (figure 8). Low Vitamin A supplementation is attributed to lack of Malezi Bora regular upscale interventions which usually are done in May but was not possible due to COVID-19 pandemic and resultant measures.

Child Care Practices A Knowledge, Attitude, Beliefs and Practices (KABP 2017) reported minimum dietary diversity of 32.8 percent, Minimum Acceptable Diet of 22 percent, Minimum meal frequency of 79.9 percent while exclusive breastfeeding was at 75.6 percent. This illustrates significant progress on a child feeding practices with diet acceptability and diversity being areas of

58 concern. Generally, data on childcare practices was limited across the area of analysis. However, other positive factors like overall improvement in food consumption scores, better coping strategy index, milk availability, access and availability of water are likely to influence key dimensions of child.

Water Hygiene and Sanitation The main sources of water for the cluster was mainly surface water and roof catchment. Water treatment before consumption was low across the cluster with Kitui having the lowest at 17 percent and both Tharaka and Meru North at 45 percent. Hand washing facilities have been installed and placed in most public places across the cluster as part of corona virus infection Prevention and Control measures. Additionally, recommended hand washing practices at four critical times is high in Kitui but remains low across other counties in the cluster with both Meru North and Kitui Counties at 45 percent. However, frequent and regular hand washing has improved due to COVID 19 prevention and control measures.

Latrine coverage in all the counties within the cluster was notably high above 90%, this was attributed to the community led total sanitation (CLTS) initiatives in the counties. The improved Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) practices can be attributed to reduction in WASH related diseases including diarrhea diseases.

2.4.5.8 Education

Access: Enrolment There was an overall increase in enrollment across the three levels with exception of Tharaka where there was no significant change in ECED enrollment across the two terms under review. Before closure of schools due to COVID-19, enrollment at ECDE and Secondary level increased slightly by about seven percent and five percent respectively while at Primary levels the increase was about 13 percent. The increase was attributed to the Compulsory Free Primary Education, Free Day Secondary Education and 100 percent transition policy at all levels of basic education. ECDE feeding program supported by County Government in Meru resulted in sustained retention of learners. Transfers were minimal across the cluster with a slight change in Meru attributed to parents’ relocation.

Effects of COVID -19 in schools Less than 20 percent of learners were accessing KICD e-learning programmes with Kitui and Meru estimated at less than 10 percent access. Lack of access to smart devices, poor connectivity, lack of awareness and household tasks are some of the reasons cited as hindrance to e-learning. Other challenges reported were teenage pregnancies and related sexual gender- based violence (SGBV) for both primary and secondary school girls. The affected learners are likely to drop out of school. Currently, some institutions have been identified for use as quarantine centres for COVID-19 however, no cases have had been referred to these centres at the time of reporting.

Effects of Long rains on schools The long rains caused damage in a total of 81 ECDE centres, 252 primary schools and 45 secondary schools across the cluster. In Embu (Mbeere), it was reported that the damaged infrastructure was rehabilitated with the support from the National CDF.

School Meal Programme School meals programme is mainly in Embu (Mbeere), Kitui, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka). Meru North does not have any form of school meal programme. Home Grown

School Meals Programme (HGSMP) is the dominant programme targeting 120,789 beneficiaries. It was reported that HGSMP funds were not received in Makueni and Embu for 2019, the last disbursement was in term 2, 2018. Delayed and inconsistent funding of HGSMP was highlighted as a major hindrance to school feeding in the four beneficiary counties.

Inter-sector links Hygiene and sanitation facilities were inadequate in most schools across the cluster with Kitui, Makueni and Tharaka Nithi being the most affected. In Makueni 199 learning institutions did not have adequate functional toilets, 648 institutions (241 ECDE, 336 Primary,71 Secondary) lacked hand washing facilities while in Tharaka only 13 schools have adequate functional toilets. In Kitui county, 598 learning institutions (108 ECDE, 202 Primary and 288 Secondary schools) have no functional latrines, hand washing facilities and functional source of drinking water within 100 m respectively.

Across the cluster, there was no provision of free sanitary towels to girls due to school closure except for Makueni county where arrangements were made to distribute sanitary towels to girls at home. The distribution was through the head teacher and coordinated by the sub county education offices and local administration.

2.5 The Coastal Marginal Agricultural Livelihood Cluster

2.5.1 Cluster Background The cluster is located in the south most tip of Kenya. It covers an estimated area of about 47,861 square kilometers, with a population of 2,805,198 persons, and consists of Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Taita Taveta Counties (Figure 2.1.3). Major livelihood zones in the cluster include; Mixed Farming (60 percent of population), Trade/Business/Formal employment/Casual labour (21 percent), Marginal Mixed Farming (11 percent) and Figure 2.13: Coast marginal agricultural cluster livelihood others eight percent). Major source of income zones for the livelihoods are livestock production representing 40 percent of total household income, crop production and waged labour accounting for 30 percent respectively.

2.5.2 Current Drivers of Food Insecurity

Rainfall Performance The onset for the 2020 long rains season was timely with some areas experiencing an early onset except for Lamu County that had late onset occurring in the third dekad of March. The cluster recorded remarkably enhance rainfall of about 141 – 200 percent of normal except parts of Lamu County that received depressed rains of less than five of the normal. Agro pastoral, Fishing and mangrove livelihood zones in Lamu County received 111-120 percent of with few pockets in fishing /Mangrove livelihood zones received between 120-140 percent of normal rainfall.

Rainfall distribution in space was even except in Lamu where it was poorly distributed. For distribution over time within the season, the rains progressed well in Kilifi and Taita Taveta counties and poor progression in Kwale and Lamu counties.

COVID-19 Pandemic There was an outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic within the cluster occasioning containment measures by government to control the spread across the counties such as imposing of curfews and restriction of inter-county movement. The measures resulted in price hikes of food commodities that were sourced from outside the cluster. As a result of the pandemic, health seeking behavior was affected, and less people visited facilities especially those that were being used as isolation centers. The uptake of health services reduced significantly owing to fear of exposure to the virus as well as movement restrictions which saw suspension of Malezi Bora activities as well. On livestock, the containment measures especially “stay at home” guideline coupled with fear of exposure and risk of infection led to limited movement and caused faster depletion of pastures in some areas of Jilore ward in the livestock farming livelihood zone.

Flash floods Flooding was experienced in various counties occasioning destruction of irrigation infrastructures and farms in the flood plains of River Sabaki in Kilifi County. Learning institutions were also affected by flood where 98 ECD Centres, 163 Primary Schools and 44 Secondary schools were damaged with Ganze sub county recording the highest number of affected institutions. high leaching of crops nutrients and stunted growth and early tasseling of maize before maturity reported in Lamu County.

2.5.3 Current Food Security Situation Kilifi and Taita Taveta counties are classified under None/Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security classification except for the fisheries and food cropping livelihoods that were in phase 1. The phase classification for Kwale and Lamu counties was Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Farmers in Kilifi County are holding maize stocks of about 112 percent of long-term average (LTA) while farmers in Kwale and Taita Taveta counties had around 70 – 80 percent of LTA as a result of the good rains. Low maize stocks of 12 percent below LTA reported in Lamu County majorly attributed to poor rains. Forage condition is good across the cluster with localized packets of Lamu County having fair forage condition supporting good body condition for all livestock species.

Maize prices are within normal in Kilifi and Kwale counties and 22 percent above the LTA in Lamu County. In Taita Taveta, maize prices were below LTA at eight percent due to the 2019 short rains and current season harvests. The low maize prices were as a result of the current household stocks that resulted from the favorable harvest.

The market prices for a medium sized goat in Kwale and Kilifi counties was 78 percent and 42 percent respectively. In Taita Taveta and Lamu counties, stable goat prices that were within long term. This resulted to good availability of pasture. Generally, terms of trade are favorable across the cluster with households able to purchase between 85 – 126 kilograms of cereals. Majority of households in the cluster were able to meet food gaps with a proportion of 71 percent having Acceptable food consumption score, 25 and 4percent had borderline and poor food consumption score respectively. The malnutrition rates based on MUAC are stable and below 2 percent save for Lamu County with proportion of children at risk of about 6 percent which was still not significant.

2.5.4 Food Security Trends Indicator Short Rains, February 2020 Long Rains Assessment, July 2020 (Previous season) (Current season) Percent maize stocks at 94 percent of LTA 87 percent of LTA household level Livestock Body condition Good for all species across the Good across the cluster for all cluster species Water consumption 35 lpppd 30 – 50 lpppd Terms of trade 97 kg 85 – 126 kg Coping strategy index 3.7

Price per kg of maize Ksh 43 Ksh. 46

Food consumption score Acceptable: 84 Acceptable: 71 Borderline: 16 Borderline: 25 Poor: 0 Poor: 4 Distance to grazing (km) 2.2 1- 4

2.5.5 Impacts of Drivers on Food and Nutrition Security

2.5.5.1 Crop Production The cluster is dependent on long rains for crop production, except Taita Taveta County that depends on the short rains. In the cluster, crop production contributes 10 to 20 percent of cash income. Main crops grown are maize, green gram and cowpeas.

Rain fed Crop Production Overall area under crops was nine percent above the LTA with increase in area for maize and cowpeas being 11 and 18 percent above LTA while that of green grams was 89 percent of LTA. Production increased by 46 percent for maize while that of green grams and cowpeas was 85 and 95 percent of LTA. The increased acreage was attributed to the county government having offered incentives of free maize seed provision. Additional workforce was also available at farm level as school-going children had been sent home in a bid to curb the COVID-19 pandemic. The Kenya Cereals Enhancement Project (KCEP) helped farmers to get farm inputs in Kwale and Kilifi. In Lamu, the increase was attributed to more land being opened up for cultivation and the deliberate effort made by County Government of Lamu of timely provision of certified seeds for maize, cowpeas and green gram and subsidized tractor hire services whose charges were lowered by 50 percent due COVID -19.

Rain - fed crop production Crop Area planted Long Term 2020 Long rains Long Term Average during the 2020 Average season production production during the long rains season area planted during (90 kg bags) Long rains season (Ha) the Long rains Projected (90 kg bags) season (Ha) Maize 131,303 118,290 1,527,509 1,039,792 Green grams 13,059 14,650 72,613 85,798 Cowpeas 11,627 9,875 63,784 67,358

Total 155,989 142,815 1,663,906 1,192,948

Irrigated crop production The main crops grown under irrigation include banana, green gram and amaranth. The area under irrigation was within the LTA. The overall production increased by eight percent above the LTA. Production of banana was within the LTA while that of amaranth was 119 Percent above the LTA. Irrigation was becoming expensive in Kwale due to manual operations during watering, hire of irrigation equipment, fuel and constant destruction of irrigation infrastructures by floods. Improvement in yields in Taita Taveta was due to farmers adopting the use of tissue culture banana seedlings and good agricultural practices.

Cereal Stocks Held The overall maize stocks in the cluster was 93 percent of LTA. The stocks held by farmers for sorghum and green grams was 18 and 58 percent above the LTA, attributed to enhanced rains and improved agronomic practices. Traders held 95 percent of the maize stocks. The variations in stocks held were due to COVID-19 and imposed curfew.

Cereal Stocks Commodity Maize Rice Sorghum Green grams Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Households 260,515 283,572 4,534 3,593 1,090 923 25,743 16,243 Traders 203,785 213,893 12,895 23,741 2,143 1,455 13,562 11,218 Millers 6,035 5,235 0 0 0 0 0 0 Food assistance 54,073 60,969 0 0 0 0 0 0 NCPB 0 3072 0 23 0 0 0 0 Total 524,408 566,741 17,429 27,357 3,233 2,378 39,305 27,461

2.5.5.2 Livestock Production Livestock production in this cluster contributes approximately 18-33, 18-20, 60 and 15 percent to cash income in the mixed farming, Livestock farming, agro pastoral and Fisheries /Mangroves livelihood zones respectively. The main livestock types in the cluster are cattle, sheep, goats, and poultry. The pasture and browse condition was good in all livelihood zones except Lamu county where pastures were good – fair across all the livelihood zones. The improvement was attributed to above average long rains received that triggered the rejuvenation/sprouting of the pasture and browse. The available pastures and browse are expected to last for 3-4 months in all livelihood zones. Access to pasture and browse in the mixed farming and Agro pastoral zones of Lamu County was limited by insecurity and conflict between crop and livestock farmers and thick shrubs. While in Kilifi thorn bush, encroachment and Land ownership were the limiting factors.

Pasture and browse condition Pasture Browse Livelihoo How long to How long to Factors Factors d zone Condition last Condition last Limiting Limiting (Months) (Months) access access Curre Norma Curr Nor Curr Nor Curr Nor

nt l ent mal ent mal ent mal

Mixed Good- Insecurity/ Goo Insecurity/co Good 3 2-3 Good 3-4 farming/ Fair conflicts d 3 nflicts

Goo 1-3 Livestock Good Fair 2 1-2 None Good d- 3 None farming Fair

Pasture Browse Livelihoo How long to How long to Factors Factors d zone Condition last Condition last Limiting Limiting (Months) (Months) access access Curre Norma Curr Nor Curr Nor Curr Nor

nt l ent mal ent mal ent mal Agro Good Good 3 4 Insecurity/ Good Good 3 4 Conflict/insecu pastoral conflicts rity Fisheries Good Good 3 4 Ocean Good Good 3 4 Ocean /Mangroves

The body condition of all livestock types across all livelihood zones was good which is normal for the season under review except Lamu county where the body conditions was Good - Fair. The good body condition was attributed to good rainfall performance that resulted in enhanced forage availability for the livestock. The good body condition is expected to remain stable until the next short rain season. Livestock body condition Cattle Sheep Goat Livelihood zone Current Normally Current Normally Current Normally Mixed farming Good Good Good Good Good Good Marginal Mixed Good Good - Good Good Good Good farming Livestock farming Good Fair Good Good Good Good Agro pastoral Good Good Fair to Good Fair to Good Good Good Fisheries Fair to Good Good Fair to Fair Fair to Good /Mangroves Good Good

The TLUs for poor income households declined by 16-40 in the mixed farming, Livestock farming and agro pastoral livelihood zones but increased by 20 percent in the marginal mixed farming zones when compared with normal period. The TLUs for medium income also declined by 62, 12, 11 and 33 percent in the marginal mixed, mixed farming, livestock farming and agro pastoral zones respectively. The decline was attributed land pressure for poor income household and change of breeds for medium income households.

Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) by household income Poor income households Medium income households

Livelihood Zone Current Normal Current Normal Marginal Mixed 2-5 1-4 3 8 Mixed farming 2-5 6 7-8 9 Livestock farming 4-5 3-6 10 8-9 Agro Pastoral 4 5-7 10 >15

Milk production slightly increased by 30 percent in mixed farming, marginal mixed and livestock farming zones compared with LTA due to availability of pasture and good body condition. The fishing mangrove and agro pastoral zone reported a decline in milk production of 75 and 70 percent respectively compared with the LTA. The low production of milk in these zones of Lamu County is due to outward migration of livestock, floods and excessive rains that contributed to lack of accessibility. Milk consumption was normal compared to LTA in most livelihood zones. Lamu County reported below normal consumption trends due to lower

64 production levels. Milk prices were lower than normal by 20 percent due to increased production in all livelihood zones hence increased supply.

Milk production and consumption Livelihood zone Milk Production Milk consumption (Litres) Prices (Kshs)/Litre/ (Litres)/Household per Household Current LTA Current LTA Current LTA Mixed farming 3-7 3.6 0.4-3 2 30-70 59 marginal mixed 3 2 1.5 2 30 40 Livestock farming 3-5 3.3 2-3 1.3 35-40 55 Fishing mangrove

The sources of water for livestock are water pans, shallow wells and rivers, piped water and water canals. The livestock trekking return distances from grazing areas to main water sources were slightly below normal in the mixed farming and marginal mixed farming due to recharge of open water sources near grazing areas. The trekking distance was above normal in the livestock farming and agro pastoral zones watering as the distanced increased in areas where less precipitation was received and less alternative water sources. The available water was projected to last approximately three to four months compared to the normal period of one to three months, about double the normal duration period. In addition, there was no change in the livestock watering frequency since livestock were provided with water on a daily basis in all livelihood zones.

Water sources and trekking distances Livelihood Sources Return distances (km) Expected duration to last zone (months) Current Normal Current Normal Current Normal Mixed Water pans Water pans 0.5-5 0.5-3 2-5 2-3 Farming Shallow wells Shallow wells Rivers streams Rivers streams Piped water Boreholes Marginal Water pans Water pans 0.5 1-3 3 1-2 Mixed Shallow wells Shallow wells Farming Rivers Streams Rivers streams Dams Livestock Water pans Water pans 0-5 3-5 2-3 1-2 farming Shallow wells Shallow wells Rivers streams Rivers streams Piped water Piped water Boreholes Boreholes Fishing 2 2 2 4 mangrove Agro 4 <1 3 3 pastoral

There were reported cases of in-migration of livestock especially cattle and goats into the county from Tana Delta into Adu ward Magarini in Kilifi county and areas of Witu in Lamu County in search of pasture and water which was normal at that time of the year. There were no confirmed cases notifiable livestock diseases. However, cases of endemic diseases such as Tick-borne diseases, East Coast Fever (ECF), Anaplasmosis, Trypanomiasis and worm infestation were reported.

2.5.5.3 Market Performance Market operations were affected from mid-March due to the containment measures put in place against the spread of Covid-19 pandemic. This led to some of the markets shutting down while others operated below their normal capacity. Operations had since resumed after cessation of movement in and out of Nairobi and Mombasa were lifted as the two cities act as major terminal markets for the cluster. Market operations in Lamu county was also affected by insecurity incidences in Boni areas of Basuba ward.

All the markets were well provisioned with food commodities whereas livestock markets witnessed reduced volumes of trade especially in Kilifi county where livestock markets were reported very low volumes of livestock traded. Commodity supplies were sourced both locally as well as from the neighboring counties such as Mombasa and across the border from Tanzania. The main food commodities traded in the markets were maize, beans, sorghum, cowpeas, vegetables, Irish potatoes and green grams.

Maize Prices Maize prices varied across different counties within the cluster but generally declined below the long-term average prices in Taita Taveta county and remained stable in Kilifi county. Price stability in Kilifi was mainly attributed to high demand for sifted maize flour which was readily available in the market Figure 2.14: Comparative maize price trends across the cluster selling at an average price of Ksh. 60 per kilogram packet coupled with availability of green maize at farms. Above long-term prices were reported in Lamu county where a kilogram of maize retailed at Ksh. 55 compared to the long-term average of Ksh. 45. The high prices in Lamu were occasioned by high demand and low supply of the commodity sourced from outside the county and also poor harvest as a result of the heavy rains which led to flooding of the farms and pest infestation. In Kwale county, a kilogram of maize was trading at Kshs 48 in July which was within seasonal ranges of Kshs 46. The prices will likely be on a reducing trend in the next three months as harvesting will have been completed and households will have stocks thereby reducing the demand. Within the cluster, highest prices were reported in Lamu county while lowest in Taita Taveta county due to harvests experienced during the short rains of 2019 together with the current season harvests that were ongoing at the time of the assessment.

2.5.5.4 Water and Sanitation The major sources of water in cluster for domestic use are boreholes, dams/pans, rivers, piped water systems, springs and shallow wells. Surface water sources were recharged over 90 percent of their capacity across the cluster except in some parts of Lamu where the recharge was up to 60-80 percent of their capacity. Water pans/ dams are expected to last for the next 3- 4 months except in the Fishing and mangrove zones of Lamu where they may last for 1-2

66 months. Return distances to water sources are normal at less than one kilometer across Kilifi county and Mixed farmig zones of Kwale, Lamu and Taita Taveta. Return distances are within the normal 2-3Km in the livestock farming zones and Fishing & Mangrove Harvesting of Lamu, Kwale and Taita Taveta. However, in livestock farming zone of Kilifi (Bofa, Chamari, Duke and Kilulu), return distances average 5-7 kilometres as the areas are relying on water trucking.

Waiting time at the source is within the normal range of 10 to 20 minutes with the exception of most parts of Lamu where waiting time average 20-60 minutes. However, long waiting time of 1-2 hours was observed in the fishing and mangrove livelihood zone of Lamu where waiting time average one to two hours due to congestion at desalination plants. However, this is normal during this period of the year.

The cost of water was within the normal range of Ksh. 3-5 per 20 litres jerrycan except in Lamu where the cost was Ksh.5-10 per 20 litres jerrycan, but within the normal range. However, costs of water in Mtangawanda and Bahamisi islands averaged Ksh. 10-20 per 20 litres jerrycan. Water vendors in the livestock zones that are relying on water trucking of Kilifi are selling a 20 litres jerrycan at Ksh. 40-50 while in Lamu islands, the cost of water is selling at Ksh. 50- 100 per 20 litres jerrycan.

Water consumption had improved across the cluster. Highest consumption of 30-60 litres per person per day (Lppd) was reported in Kwale and Kilifi. Water consumption average 20-30 Lppd in Lamu and Taita Taveta. However, lowest consumption of 10-15 Lppd was noted in Island of Patte of Mtagawana and Bahamisi due to high salinity levels of water in shallow wells. Areas with high concentration of people at water points in Kilifi included Kikombe thele area in Sabaki Magarini sub-county and Jila water pan in Ganze sub-county. The high concentration of people at these water sources were attributed to low pressures in pipelines. No high concentration of human at water points was observed in areas of Kishushe, Mlilo, Kamtonga, Godoma and Kwa Mnengwa as usual due to recharge of the surrounding open water sources and piped water developments. Boiling was the most preferred method of water treatment. Hand washing at household level and designated places in urban areas are placed to curb the spread of COVID-19 pandemic.

2.5.5.5 Food Consumption Food consumption patterns improved across the cluster with exception of Lamu County where the proportion of household in acceptable food consumption category declined by 12 percent to stand at 24.7 percent in July 2020 from 37 percent in July 2019. A reduction in food consumption was attributed to reduced availability of food at household level coupled with low purchasing power. Conversely, Taita Taveta, Kilifi and Kwale counties had the highest number of households in acceptable food consumption group at 100, 89 and 69 percent respectively coupled with increased availability of casual labour opportunities which boosted household purchasing power hence access to diversified foods. Kwale had the highest number of households in poor food consumption score at 12 percent compared to 5 and less than one percent in Lamu and Kilifi counties due to COVID-19 preventive measures such as restriction of movement which limited access to sukuma wiki, tomatoes, fruits and potatoes as there was a scarcity of the commodities in the market.

2.5.5.6 Coping Strategies No consumption-based coping strategies to curb food gaps were engaged in Taita Taveta County during the assessment while in Kilifi County, a few strategies were engaged as the reduced coping strategy index (rCSI) was 2.95 which had reduced from 3.58 reported in June. The reduction was indicative of less severe coping mechanisms engaged to reduce food gaps. In Kwale, the index had maintained a stable trend from 15.4 recorded in July 2019 to 14.1 in July 2020. Most households across the cluster were not engaging any livelihood-based coping strategies to mitigate food gaps with the exception of Kwale County. It was estimated that approximately 86.3, 88.1 and 76 percent of households in Kilifi, Taita Taveta and Lamu Counties did not engage any of the said strategies compared with half of the population in Kwale County (50.2 percent).

2.5.5.7 Health and Nutrition

Nutrition Situation Phase classification for Acute Malnutrition was done for Kilifi and Kwale Counties since Taita Taveta and Lamu Counties did not meet threshold for analysis. Both Kilifi and Kwale Counties were categorized in phase 1 IPC Acute Malnutrition classification. Owing to classification of GAM based on MUAC, nutrition situation in these counties are at acceptable phase but could progressively deteriorate if new or existing strategies to address malnutrition are not put in place or strengthened. Taita Taveta and Lamu counties remain grey areas with regards to phase classification because sentinel data did not attain analysis threshold and so the magnitude of Acute Malnutrition remain subject of extrapolation.

Morbidity and Mortality Urinary Tract Infections (UTRI) poses greatest threat to Acute Malnutrition in Kilifi, Lamu and Taita Taveta Counties. A significant increase in malaria cases was recorded in Kwale and Kilifi Counties with Taita-Taveta and Lamu counties recording a reducing and stable trend respectively. Malaria cases in Kwale County are likely to worsen in the next 3 months due to challenges with preventive and curative commodities. There were significant decreases in diarrheal cases across the four counties due to increased hand washing practice in a bid to practice Covid-19 containment measures.

Figure 2.15: Trends in malaria illnesses among children under-five years in the Cluster

In Kilifi and Taita Taveta Counties, Acute Malnutrition is likely to remain the same for the next three months due to projected abundance in food stocks and enhanced malezi Bora in the Counties. In Kwale and Lamu Counties, the situation is likely to worsen due to commodity stock outs and strict Covid-19 preventive measures in place. Measles outbreak was reported in Kilifi in June 2020 with five confirmed cases, and the outbreak has since been contained. Morbidity trends in the Coastal Cluster are likely to be on reducing trend for the next three months due to improved hygiene practices and end of wet season. The under-five mortality and crude death rates in Kilifi County did not vary much from the previous year; trends are expected to remain stable in the projected period. There were no mortality data for Kwale, Taita Taveta and Lamu counties to establish mortality trends.

Trends in childcare practices Minimum Meal Frequency (MMF) and Dietary Diversity practices are sub-optimal across the four Counties. Complementary feeding practices are likely to be affected across the Coastal cluster due to reduction of food and income at household level and number of meals per day is projected to drop. Dietary diversity amongst children has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic as some fresh foods that were sourced from upcountry were not easily accessible when the restriction of movement in to and out of the counties was put in place. Normal market and business operations were adversely affected, thus reducing access to variety of food items. The situation is likely to improve in the next three months because of food support and increased time for childcare resulting from Covid-19 related support and measures which enhances caregivers’ presence at home for childcare. Other interventions in place such as BFHI, BFCI and nutrition education are slowly improving the situation and the community is expected to practice appropriate IYCF.

Tends in Exclusive Breast Feeding The exclusive breastfeeding rate was constantly below 80 percent for Lamu and Taita Taveta Counties with Kilifi steadily exhibiting an increasing trend from 2017 while it keeps fluctuating and a notably decreasing trend in 2020 for Kwale County. Overall, there are improving trends in EBF for the entire cluster which is expected to impact positively on Acute Malnutrition.

Routine Measles Vaccination Coverage for routine measles vaccination was above 80 percent for the entire cluster. As for OPV3, it was above 80 percent for Taita Taveta and Kwale Counties due to heightened referrals by CHVs. Lamu and Kilifi recorded below 80 percent. Overall improvement in Fully Immunized Child (FIC) in Kilifi, Kwale and Taita Taveta is attributed to heightened referrals by CHVs to the facilities and crowd control during out reaches with a bid to implementing COVID-19 containment measures. The COVID-19 effect is however felt in Lamu County which was significantly on reducing trends when compared to same period in 2019.

Integrated Management of Acute Malnutrition (IMAM) admission Trends Trends in Outpatient Therapeutic Programme (OTP) and Supplementary Feeding Programme (SFP) indicated an increase in Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) in the next three months for the entire cluster. The COVID-19 pandemic has had an effect in all the 4 counties. This has seen a hindrance in continuity of essential health and nutrition services as integrated outreach services and campaigns like “Malezi Bora”have been stopped. The strict Covid-19 preventive measures in place have limited access to health care services including Antenatal clinics and normal curative services. The community generally avoided health facilities due to fear of exposure to the virus, and subsequently caregivers did not keep their program appointments for admissions and follow-up. As a result, there was an increase in defaulter rates. In static health

facilities, normal service delivery was interfered in order to decongest outpatient and inpatient departments as was deemed paramount in the prevention of COVID-19 infections

Vitamin A Supplementation The coverage across the cluster remained below the national coverage except for Taita Taveta Counties which was at 97.4 percent while there were no data to establish trends in IFAS hence a grey area of intervention.

2.5.5.8 Education

Access: Enrolment rate The cluster recorded an increase in enrolment in primary by four percent and eight percent in primary and secondary levels respectively with a decrease (-16 percent) in ECDE. This increase is attributed to the 100 percent transition policy, parents’ sensitization on importance of education and Free Day Secondary Education (FDSE) by government that generally influenced access and retention in schools.

Enrolment

Term I 2020 (includes new Increase Percent Term III 2019 students registered and drop- Percent Percent or Increase outs since Term I 2020) Boys Girls Decrease or Enrolment Enrolment Variation decrease № № Enrollment № Girls Total № Girls Total Boys Boys ECD 86,006 80,697 166,703 72,632 67,004 139,636 -27,067 -16 52 48 Primary 273,233 267,636 540,869 287,067 278,113 565,180 24,311 4 51 49 Secondary 66,982 61,682 128,664 69,652 69,810 139,462 10,798 8 51 49

Effects of COVID -19 in schools Across the cluster there are schools identified to be used as quarantine centres for covid-19. In some cases utility bills (water and electricity) were noted to be piling. The cluster recorded a low participation in e-learning (estimated at three to fifty-seven percent) with secondary on the higher extent Kenya Institute of Curriculum Development (KICD) radio and TV channel and other home-based learning are the available channels. The low e-Learning participation is attributed to lack of TV sets, internet connectivity, mobile phones, and radios, ignorance about existing learning platforms, lack of skills on how to access and lack of parental supervision. Increased cases of girl’s pregnancies were reported in the cluster, citing minimal engagement and monitoring of girls during their free time by their parents. Community interviews indicated that school going boys and girls were migrating from the rural to urban areas for casual labour or child labour to earn a living due to COVID-19 Pandemic. In Lamu, 39 early pregnancies (30 in secondary, 9 in primary) coupled with early marriages of girls in both primary and secondary schools in the County were reported.

Effects of Long rains on schools Infrastructure in 128 ECD centres, 226 primary schools and 56 secondary schools) in these counties have been damaged by flooding and mudslides. The most affected facilities being pit latrines, water tanks and classrooms.

School Meals Programmes Various school feeding initiatives were reported among them, Regular School Meals Programme (RSMP), Home Grown School Meals Programme (HGSMP), Expanded School Meals Program (ESMP) and Community School Meals Program (CSMP) targeting 533,827 learners in public primary schools. It was however, noted that funding for government supported feeding programme was not consistent.

Inter-sector links Inadequate functional latrines in ECDE, Primary and Secondary schools was highlighted as a challenge in some of the counties apart from Taita Taveta where only 25 percent of schools are affected. For instance, in Kwale County, a significant number of ECD, primary and secondary schools have inadequate functional latrines, hand-washing facilities and lack of access to clean safe water. Given the high standards of hygiene involved in the containment of the current COVID-19 pandemic, this state poses a risk when schools re-open in 2021. However, dignity kits for menstrual support are still being distributed to girls in the county.

3.0 Food Security Prognosis

3.1 Assumptions  Based on global forecasts from USGS and NOAA/CPC, and downscaled forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Department, the October to December 2020 short rains season in the unimodal areas is 75 percent likely of being normal to below normal while in the bimodal areas of Kenya the rainfall has an 80 percent probability of being below average to average.

 With the below-average October to December short rain forecast, According to the Desert Locust Global Forecast by FAO, the leftover immature swarms in the northeast and northwest parts of the country following the desert locust migrations into Ethiopia and South Sudan will likely result in the threat of a desert locust upsurge likely resulting in damage to crop and foraged resources. However, available funding for the desert locust response is sufficient through December and will help mitigate the impacts of the infestations significantly.

 Previous projections from the University of Nairobi and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine pointed towards a peak of COVID-19 cases between June and September. Despite a reduction in cases indicating a flattening of the curve, the COVID-19 related restrictions like the nationwide curfew, mandatory testing at border points for truck drivers, enforcement of social distancing measures will persist and continue to impact businesses and income earning opportunities negatively especially in urban areas resulting in below average income for household in both urban and rural areas.

 Local maize supply is expected to be adequate for the 2019/2020 consumption year, given regional cross-border imports from Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia, international imports of about 360,000 MT received in June and July and projected above average 2020 long rains maize crop production.

 Given current average to above average forage conditions, livestock prices are likely to remain above average supported by good livestock body conditions and limited supply to markets as households aim to restock their herds. However, as the short rains cease early households may flood the markets with livestock in a bid to obtain income in the face of reduced income due to below average milk production and COVID – 19 related restrictions resulting in a drop of prices from January.

 Rangeland resources are expected to last for 1-4 months through December given the current good conditions across the pastoral areas caused by the two consecutive above average rainfall seasons. The below average October to December rains are expected to have a short lived positive impact on the rangeland resources maintaining them at average levels through January.

3.2 Food security Prognosis (September 2020 to February 2021)

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes Pastoral Areas Above-average rangeland resources are expected to last through October except in desert- locust infested areas in the north and northwest and in Isiolo and Mandera where regeneration was below average. Livestock productivity is expected to be maintained and milk productivity is expected to increase especially in September as the animals in calf give birth through October. High goat prices will likely persist and maintain household food access despite likely high maize prices. Nutrition status is expected to remain children at risk of malnutrition ranged from ‘Acceptable’ (GAM MUAC <5 percent) in Laikipia, Narok and Kajiado, ‘Alert’ (GAM MUAC 5-9.9 percent) in Marsabit (Saku and Moyale Sub-counties), ‘Serious’ (GAM MUAC 10-14.9 percent) in West Pokot and Tana River, and ‘Critical’ (GAM MUAC 15-29.9 percent) in Turkana. Baringo (Turkana East), Samburu, Isiolo, Marsabit (Laisamis and North Horr sub counties), Mandera, Wajir and Garissa. Parts of Mandera and Tana River may experience livestock migration as accelerated depletion of rangeland resources is experienced. Through September, Narok, West Pokot countries and parts of Baringo, Samburu, Laikipia will be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) while the rest of the pastoral areas are expected to remain in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase as households are able to afford food needs but unable to afford essential non-food needs. However, some poor households with limited assets and affected by insecurity and conflict will likely engage in crisis livelihood coping strategies like reducing expenses on health and withdrawing children from school and face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo and Baringo counties. However, In Mandera, poor and previously flood-affected households yet to recover and those affected by insecurity and conflict will face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. From October, the forecasted below average October to December will drive regeneration of forage and water resources that will likely be short-lived but still maintain them at average levels supported by the effects of the preceding consecutive above average seasons. Livestock productivity is likely to be sustained at average levels resulting in at least average prices maintaining average to near-average household food access despite likely rising staple food prices driven by a slowed down supply chain. Milk production is expected to wane towards the end of the scenario period reducing milk consumption and income from milk sales. Households are expected to seek additional income from firewood and charcoal sales, petty trade and casual labor. Income from remittances is expected to be below average as the relatives in urban areas also experience reduced incomes because of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the rangeland conditions deteriorate, resource-based conflicts, cattle rustling and banditry are expected to rise causing insecurity, loss of assets and constrained livelihood activities. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) will persist in parts of Narok, West Pokot, Baringo and Laikipia while Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist across the pastoral areas as incomes are further constrained with parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Narok deteriorating to Stressed from Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, more poor households are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Mandera, Wajir, Turkana, Garissa, Marsabit, Samburu, Tana River, Isiolo and Baringo counties which may result in some area-level classifications. In Mandera, a number of households are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) but not expected to achieve the threshold for an area-level classification.

Marginal Areas Following mixed cereal and pulse production across the marginal areas, household food availability is expected to remain stable with stocks likely to last through November. Staple food prices are likely to remain average to below average supported by available supplies from local harvests and cross-border source markets through December maintaining household food access. Apart from parts of Nyeri (Kieni) and Meru North that are likely to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to sufficient food and income while Taita Taveta and the parts of Makueni, Kitui, Kilifi, Embu (Mbeere), Tharaka Nithi (Tharaka) move to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as food and income sources dwindle necessitating application of coping strategies joining the rest of the marginal areas.

The forecasted below average October to December short rains will likely result in reduced crop production activities and consequently below average casual wage labor income. Reduced household income will reduce the purchasing power but from November onwards as household stocks get depleted food access will be mitigated by below average to average staple food prices from the high and medium production parts of the country. Livestock productivity is likely to remain stable providing milk for consumption at household level. Remittances from relatives in urban areas are expected to remain below average as household income in urban areas are impacted negatively by COVID-19. Below average income will force households to employ consumption coping strategies and livelihood coping strategies such as borrowing money, purchasing food on credit, spending their savings to meet their essential non-food needs. Acute malnutrition in children under six years of age is expected to increase as household food stocks decline but is expected to remain within ‘Acceptable’ (GAM MUAC <5 percent) levels mitigated by consumption of milk and short cycle crop harvests available from December though below average. As household food stocks dwindle, households are expected to meet their minimum food needs through purchase but will unlikely afford non-food needs due to below average income and be Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, parts of Nyeri (Kieni) and Meru (Meru North) will likely remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

The key factors to monitor over the next six months include;  COVID–19 trends, control and related impacts  Close monitoring of the effects of COVID-19 on continuity of essential services and livelihoods as cases continue to rise to mitigate its effect on food and nutrition situation.  Household food access particularly from the demand side stemming from reduced household income  National food stocks  Livestock disease outbreaks  Performance of forecasted below average 2020 October–December short rains  Control of remaining Desert locust swarms and possible resurgence in October

4.0 Proposed Sectoral Interventions

Options for response The tables below contain priority response options by sector. Immediate interventions to mitigate food insecurity should be complemented by medium to long-term interventions that build the resilience of vulnerable communities

4.1 Agriculture Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) Interventions Counties Cost Kshs (Millions) Provision of farm in puts such Kitui, Embu, Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, 250 as seeds, fertilizers and Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, subsidized mechanical services Kitui, Makueni, Narok, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, West Pokot Pests and disease control Embu, Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, Kitui, Tana 170 including desert locust River, Baringo, Kilifi, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kitui, Makueni, Turkana, Narok, Kwale, Kilifi ,Lamu, West Pokot Post-Harvest Management and Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo, Turkana, 10 capacity building of farmers Kilifi, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kitui, Makueni, Narok, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, West Pokot Promotion of value chain Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, Baringo, Turkana, 118 additions Kilifi, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Kitui, Makueni, Narok, Kwale, Kilifi ,Lamu, West Pokot Expansion of irrigated Isiolo, Kajiado ,Makueni ,Marsabit ,Samburu 280 Agriculture ,Tana river ,Turkana ,Wajir Total 918

4.2 Livestock Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) Interventions Counties Cost Kshs (Millions) Livestock vaccination and Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, 470 disease surveillance Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, west pokot, Wajir, Turkana Pasture and fodder Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, 400 establishment and conservation Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera, Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, west pokot, Wajir, Turkana

Livestock value addition and Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, Kitui, 200 capacity building of pastoralists Kwale Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, west pokot, Wajir, Turkana and Baringo

Livestock restocking Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, 200 Kilifi, Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, west pokot, Wajir, Turkana Total 1,270

4.3 Water Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) Interventions Counties Cost Kshs (Millions) Repair,rehabilitation,extension Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, 1000 and maintenance of water Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Wajir, West Pokot structures and systems

Promotion of rain water Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kilifi, 800 harvesting and technology Kitui, Kwale Laikipia, Lamu, Makueni, Mandera Marsabit, Meru, Nyeri, Narok, Taita Taveta, Samburu, Tana River, Tharaka Nithi, west pokot, Wajir, Turkana Construction of new water Baringo, Kajiado, Kitui, Kilifi, Laikipia, Lamu, 1750 sources like boreholes, dams Mandera, Marsabit, Nyeri, Wajir, and water pans Garissa,Turkana and West Pokot Covid 19 response Kitui, Lamu, Nyeri, Taita Taveta, Tharaka Nithi. 400 Total 3,950

4.4 Health and Nutrition Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) Interventions Counties Cost Kshs (Millions) Procure commodities for Kitui, Embu, Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, 700 management of acute Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi, Nyeri ,Taita Taveta, malnutrition Kitui, Makueni, Narok, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, West Pokot Update contingency and Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Meru , Tana 50 response plans River, Garissa, Kajiado, Isiolo, Samburu and West Pokot Scale up community level Baringo, Embu, Garissa, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kitui, 300 health and nutrition services in Kilifi, Kwale, Laikipia, Marsabit, Meru, Narok, the face of rising Covid-19 Samburu, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Tharaka cases to expand system capacity Nithi, Turkana, Wajir for health and nutrition service delivery Close monitoring of the effects Kitui, Embu, Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, 200 of COVID-19 on continuity of Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi,Nyeri,Taita essential services and taveta,Kitui,Makueni,Narok,Kwale,Kilifi,Lamu, livelihoods as cases continue to West Pokot rise to mitigate its effect on food and nutrition situation Continue to strengthen multi- Kitui, Embu, Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, 300 sectoral linkages and Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi, Wajir ,Tana River, coordination at the county level Garissa, Isiolo, Kitui, Makueni, Narok, Kwale, to address the underlying and Kilifi, Lamu, West Pokot basic causes of the persistently high levels of acute malnutrition Total 1,550

4.5 Education Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) Interventions Counties Cost Kshs (Millions) Water provision and disposing Kitui, Embu, Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, 1000 of food in schools. Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi ,Nyeri, Taita taveta,Kitui,Makueni,Narok,Kwale,Kilifi,Lamu, Wajir,Garissa,Mandera,Isiolo,Marsabit,Narok,Kaj iado,West Pokot Expansion of infrastructure in Kitui, Embu, Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, 2700 existing schools Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi,Nyeri,Taita taveta,Kitui,Makueni,Narok,Kwale,Kilifi,Lamu,

Interventions Counties Cost Kshs (Millions) Wajir,Garissa,Mandera,Isiolo,Marsabit,Narok,Kaj iado,West Pokot Recruitment of additional Kitui, Embu, Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, 1500 ECDE teachers and girl child Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi,Nyeri,Taita empowerment taveta,Kitui,Makueni,Narok,Kwale,Kilifi,Lamu, Wajir,Garissa,Mandera,Isiolo,Marsabit,Narok,Kaj iado,West Pokot Implementation of covid-19 Kitui, Embu, Meru North, Tharaka Nithi, 560 protocols, supply of face masks, Baringo, Turkana, Kilifi,Nyeri,Taita soaps and sanitizers taveta,Kitui,Makueni,Narok,Kwale,Kilifi,Lamu, Wajir,Garissa,Mandera,Isiolo,Marsabit,Narok,Kaj iado,West Pokot Total 5,760

4.6 Peace and Security Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) Interventions Counties Cost Kshs (Millions) Peace and dialogue meetings Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Marsabit, West Pokot and 100 and cross border initiatives Baringo

Total 100

4.7 Food Assistance Sector: Priority Interventions (September 2020 – February 2021) Interventions Counties Cost Kshs (Millions) Build resilience to future shocks Turkana, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Marsabit, 6,000 through asset creation, safety net Baringo, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River, Kwale, programmes and market access Kilifi, Lamu programmes; food commodities and cash including associated costs for over 739,000 food insecure people in need of assistance for the next six months. Total 6,000