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California Fire Siege 2007 an Overview Cover Photos from Top Clockwise: the Santiago Fire Threatens a Development on October 23, 2007
CALIFORNIA FIRE SIEGE 2007 AN OVERVIEW Cover photos from top clockwise: The Santiago Fire threatens a development on October 23, 2007. (Photo credit: Scott Vickers, istockphoto) Image of Harris Fire taken from Ikhana unmanned aircraft on October 24, 2007. (Photo credit: NASA/U.S. Forest Service) A firefighter tries in vain to cool the flames of a wind-whipped blaze. (Photo credit: Dan Elliot) The American Red Cross acted quickly to establish evacuation centers during the siege. (Photo credit: American Red Cross) Opposite Page: Painting of Harris Fire by Kate Dore, based on photo by Wes Schultz. 2 Introductory Statement In October of 2007, a series of large wildfires ignited and burned hundreds of thousands of acres in Southern California. The fires displaced nearly one million residents, destroyed thousands of homes, and sadly took the lives of 10 people. Shortly after the fire siege began, a team was commissioned by CAL FIRE, the U.S. Forest Service and OES to gather data and measure the response from the numerous fire agencies involved. This report is the result of the team’s efforts and is based upon the best available information and all known facts that have been accumulated. In addition to outlining the fire conditions leading up to the 2007 siege, this report presents statistics —including availability of firefighting resources, acreage engaged, and weather conditions—alongside the strategies that were employed by fire commanders to create a complete day-by-day account of the firefighting effort. The ability to protect the lives, property, and natural resources of the residents of California is contingent upon the strength of cooperation and coordination among federal, state and local firefighting agencies. -
Soaring Weather
Chapter 16 SOARING WEATHER While horse racing may be the "Sport of Kings," of the craft depends on the weather and the skill soaring may be considered the "King of Sports." of the pilot. Forward thrust comes from gliding Soaring bears the relationship to flying that sailing downward relative to the air the same as thrust bears to power boating. Soaring has made notable is developed in a power-off glide by a conven contributions to meteorology. For example, soar tional aircraft. Therefore, to gain or maintain ing pilots have probed thunderstorms and moun altitude, the soaring pilot must rely on upward tain waves with findings that have made flying motion of the air. safer for all pilots. However, soaring is primarily To a sailplane pilot, "lift" means the rate of recreational. climb he can achieve in an up-current, while "sink" A sailplane must have auxiliary power to be denotes his rate of descent in a downdraft or in come airborne such as a winch, a ground tow, or neutral air. "Zero sink" means that upward cur a tow by a powered aircraft. Once the sailcraft is rents are just strong enough to enable him to hold airborne and the tow cable released, performance altitude but not to climb. Sailplanes are highly 171 r efficient machines; a sink rate of a mere 2 feet per second. There is no point in trying to soar until second provides an airspeed of about 40 knots, and weather conditions favor vertical speeds greater a sink rate of 6 feet per second gives an airspeed than the minimum sink rate of the aircraft. -
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS a Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Re
CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Master of Arts in Geography By Ilya Neyman May 2013 The thesis of Ilya Neyman is approved: _______________________ _________________ Dr. Steve LaDochy Date _______________________ _________________ Dr. Ron Davidson Date _______________________ _________________ Dr. James Hayes, Chair Date California State University, Northridge ii TABLE OF CONTENTS SIGNATURE PAGE ii ABSTRACT iv INTRODUCTION 1 THESIS STATEMENT 12 IMPORTANT TERMS AND DEFINITIONS 13 LITERATURE REVIEW 17 APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY 24 TRADITIONALLY RECOGNIZED TORNADIC PARAMETERS 28 CASE STUDY 1: SEPTEMBER 10, 2011 33 CASE STUDY 2: JULY 29, 2003 48 CASE STUDY 3: JANUARY 19, 2010 62 CASE STUDY 4: MAY 22, 2008 91 CONCLUSIONS 111 REFERENCES 116 iii ABSTRACT FORECASTING CALIFORNIA THUNDERSTORMS By Ilya Neyman Master of Arts in Geography Thunderstorms are a significant forecasting concern for southern California. Even though convection across this region is less frequent than in many other parts of the country significant thunderstorm events and occasional severe weather does occur. It has been found that a further challenge in convective forecasting across southern California is due to the variety of sub-regions that exist including coastal plains, inland valleys, mountains and deserts, each of which is associated with different weather conditions and sometimes drastically different convective parameters. In this paper four recent thunderstorm case studies were conducted, with each one representative of a different category of seasonal and synoptic patterns that are known to affect southern California. In addition to supporting points made in prior literature there were numerous new and unique findings that were discovered during the scope of this research and these are discussed as they are investigated in their respective case study as applicable. -
The 2007 Southern California Wildfires: Lessons in Complexity
fire The 2007 Southern California Wildfires: Lessons in Complexity s is evidenced year after year, the na- ture of the “fire problem” in south- Jon E. Keeley, Hugh Safford, C.J. Fotheringham, A ern California differs from most of Janet Franklin, and Max Moritz the rest of the United States, both by nature and degree. Nationally, the highest losses in ϳ The 2007 wildfire season in southern California burned over 1,000,000 ac ( 400,000 ha) and property and life caused by wildfire occur in included several megafires. We use the 2007 fires as a case study to draw three major lessons about southern California, but, at the same time, wildfires and wildfire complexity in southern California. First, the great majority of large fires in expansion of housing into these fire-prone southern California occur in the autumn under the influence of Santa Ana windstorms. These fires also wildlands continues at an enormous pace cost the most to contain and cause the most damage to life and property, and the October 2007 fires (Safford 2007). Although modest areas of were no exception because thousands of homes were lost and seven people were killed. Being pushed conifer forest in the southern California by wind gusts over 100 kph, young fuels presented little barrier to their spread as the 2007 fires mountains experience the same negative ef- reburned considerable portions of the area burned in the historic 2003 fire season. Adding to the size fects of long-term fire suppression that are of these fires was the historic 2006–2007 drought that contributed to high dead fuel loads and long evident in other western forests (e.g., high distance spotting. -
The Iberian Peninsula Thermal Low
Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2003), 129, pp. 1491–1511 doi: 10.1256/qj.01.189 The Iberian Peninsula thermal low 1 2 By KLAUS P. HOINKA ¤ and MANUEL DE CASTRO 1Institut fur¨ Physik der Atmosph¨are, DLR, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany 2Dpto. Ciencias Ambientales, Universidad Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain (Received 9 November 2001; revised 26 September 2002) SUMMARY Statistics of the thermal low above the Iberian Peninsula are presented for the period between 1979 and 1993, based on gridded data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis project. The sample of days with a thermal low above the Iberian Peninsula was selected objectively using criteria applied to mean-sea-level pressure and 925 hPa geopotential elds. The synoptic- and regional-scale horizontal structure is characterized by the climatology of the 500 hPa geopotential and mean-sea-level pressure distributions. The diurnal evolution of the mean-sea-level pressure is portrayed by mean elds at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The climatological vertical structure of the thermal low is shown by relation to meridional and zonal cross- sections passing through the thermal low’s centre. The diurnal evolution of the divergence, relative vorticity, potential temperature and vertical velocity is investigated. Statistics are presented also for the monthly frequency, geographical location, vertical extent and intensity of the Iberian thermal low. KEYWORDS: ERA data Heated low 1. INTRODUCTION A thermal low is a warm, shallow, non-frontal depression which forms above continental regions, mostly in the subtropics, but also in the lower midlatitudes. They form mostly during summer months because of the intense surface heating over land. -
Dynamical and Synoptic Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall Episodes in Southern Brazil
598 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 135 Dynamical and Synoptic Characteristics of Heavy Rainfall Episodes in Southern Brazil MATEUS DA SILVA TEIXEIRA Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Sdo Jose dos Campos, Sdo Paulo, Brazil PRAKKI SATYAMURTY Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos Climdticos/INPE,Sio Jose dos Campos, Sdo Paulo, Brazil (Manuscript received 21 December 2005, in final form 19 May 2006) ABSTRACT The dynamical and synoptic characteristics that distinguish heavy rainfall episodes from nonheavy rainfall episodes in southern Brazil are discussed. A heavy rainfall episode is defined here as one in which the 2 50 mm day-' isohyet encloses an area of not less than [0 000 km in the domain of southern Brazil. One hundred and seventy such events are identified in the 11-yr period'of 1991-2001. The mean flow patterns in the period of 1-3 days preceding the episodes show some striking synoptic-scale features that may be considered forerunners of these episodes: (i) a deepening midtropospheric trough in the eastern South Pacific approaches the continent 3 days before, (ii) a surface low,pressure center forms in northern Ar- gentina 1 day before, (iii) a northerly low-level jet develops over Paraguay 2 days before, and (iv) a strong moisture flux convergence over southern Brazil becomes prominent 1 day before the episode. A parameter called rainfall quantity, defined as the product .of the area enclosed by the 50 mm day-' isohyet and the average rainfall intensity, is,correlated with fields of atmospheric variables such as 500-hPa geopotential and 850-hPa meridional winds. Significant lag correlations show that the anomalies of some atmospheric vari- ables could be viewed as precursors of heavy rainfall in southern Brazil that can be explored for use in improving the forecasts. -
CAL FIRE Mobilizing for Santa Ana Winds
CAL FIRE NEWS RELEASE California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection CONTACT: Duty Information Officer RELEASE October 20, (916) 651-FIRE (3473) DATE: 2017 @CALFIRE_PIO CAL FIRE Mobilizing for Santa Ana Winds SACRAMENTO – After one of the deadliest and most destructive weeks in California’s history, firefighters are preparing for another significant wind event in Southern California. The National Weather service has issued several Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches across Southern California starting this weekend through early next week due to gusty winds, low humidity and high temperatures. In response to these anticipated conditions, CAL FIRE is increasing its staffing levels with additional firefighters, fire engines, fire crews, and aircraft to respond to any new wildfires. “This is traditionally the time of year when we see these strong Santa Ana winds,” said Chief Ken Pimlott, director of CAL FIRE. “and with an increased risk for wildfires, our firefighters are ready. Not only do we have state, federal and local fire resources, but we have additional military aircraft on the ready. Firefighters from other states, as well as Australia, are here and ready to help in case a new wildfire ignites.” The weather warnings stretch from Santa Barbara, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, Los Angeles, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties. The winds are expected to reach gusts of up to 50 mph, along with record breaking heat, fire danger in these areas is high. It is vital that the public use caution when outside and avoid activities that may spark a new fire. Any new fires can spread rapidly under these types of weather conditions. -
Categorization of Santa Ana Winds with Respect to Large Fire Potential
Categorization of Santa Ana Winds With Respect To Large Fire Potential Tom Rolinski1, Brian D’Agostino2, and Steve Vanderburg2 1US Forest Service, Riverside, California. 2San Diego Gas and Electric, San Diego, California. ABSTRACT Santa Ana winds, common to southern California during the fall through early spring, are a type of katabatic wind that originates from a direction generally ranging from 360°/0° to 100° and is usually accompanied by very low humidity. Since fuel conditions tend to be driest from late September through the middle of November, Santa Ana winds occurring during this time have the greatest potential to produce large, devastating fires when an ignition occurs. Such catastrophic fires occurred in 1993, 2003, 2007, and 2008. Because of the destructive nature of such fires, there has been a growing desire to categorize Santa Ana wind events in much the same way that tropical cyclones and tornadoes have been categorized. The Offshore Flow Severity Index (OFSI), previously developed by Predictive Services, is an attempt to categorize such events with respect to large fire potential, specifically the potential for new ignitions to reach or exceed 100 ha based on breakpoints of surface wind speed and humidity. More recently, Predictive Services has collaborated with meteorologists from the San Diego Gas and Electric utility to develop a new methodology that addresses flaws inherent in the initial index. Specific methods for improving spatial coverage and the effects of fuel moisture have been employed. High resolution reanalysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model generated by the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at UCLA is being used to redefine the OFSI. -
News Headlines 01/21/2021
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ News Headlines 01/21/2021 Strong winds create hazardous driving conditions, bring fire danger and power shutoffs across SoCal Spectacular House Fire Lights Up the Sky in Yucca Valley Early This Morning 1 Strong winds create hazardous driving conditions, bring fire danger and power shutoffs across SoCal Rob McMillan, Marc Cota-Robles and Sid Garcia, ABC7 News Posted: January 19, 2021 at 12:55PM San Bernardino County Fire Engineer, Eric Sherwin, warns ABC7 News “The tendency to start a ‘warming’ fire can result in destructive and truly out-of-control fires very quickly.” He encourages residents to report fires right away to give Firefighters the opportunity to knockdown fires before the wind takes control. FONTANA, Calif. (KABC) -- Dangerous Santa Ana winds are whipping through the Southland, bringing increased fire danger and causing hazardous driving conditions as thousands are under the threat of having their power shut off. Southern California on Tuesday will be hit with the trifecta of increased winds, low relative humidity and low moisture, prompting firefighters to be on alert. A huge area is affected - from Santa Clarita to the high country, from the Los Angeles basin to the Santa Monica Mountains and all the way to the coast. In the highest elevations, gusts could reach up to 90 mph. Those gusts posed a challenge for some drivers in Fontana Tuesday morning, where at least five big rigs flipped over near the 15 and 210 freeway interchange. Nobody was hurt, but several other drivers stopped on the side of the freeway to wait for the strong gusts to subside. -
III. General Description of Environmental Setting Acres, Or Approximately 19 Percent of the City’S Area
III. GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING A. Overview of Environmental Setting Section 15130 of the State CEQA Guidelines requires an EIR to include a discussion of the cumulative impacts of a proposed project when the incremental effects of a project are cumulatively considerable. Cumulative impacts are defined as impacts that result from the combination of the proposed project evaluated in the EIR combined with other projects causing related impacts. Cumulatively considerable means that the incremental effects of an individual project are considerable when viewed in connection with the effects of past projects, the effects of other current projects, and the effects of probable future projects. Section 15125 (c) of the State CEQA Guidelines requires an EIR to include a discussion on the regional setting that the project site is located within. Detailed environmental setting descriptions are contained in each respective section, as presented in Chapter IV of this Draft EIR. B. Project Location The City of Ontario (City) is in the southwestern corner of San Bernardino County and is surrounded by the Cities of Chino and Montclair, and unincorporated areas of San Bernardino County to the west; the Cities of Upland and Rancho Cucamonga to the north; the City of Fontana and unincorporated land in San Bernardino County to the east; the Cities of Eastvale and Jurupa Valley to the east and south. The City is in the central part of the Upper Santa Ana River Valley. This portion of the valley is bounded by the San Gabriel Mountains to the north; the Chino Hills, Puente Hills, and San Jose Hills to the west; the Santa Ana River to the south; and Lytle Creek Wash on the east. -
Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index
Developing and Validating the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index Tom Rolinski1, Robert Fovell2, Scott B Capps3, Yang Cao2, Brian D”Agostino4, Steve Vanderburg4 (1)USDA Forest Service (Predictive Services), Riverside, CA, United States, (2)Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)Vertum Partners, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (4)SDG&E, San Diego, CA, United States 65 60 LFP depicting Santa Ana Wind Events 2007-2014 55 Santa Ana Events – weather parameters only 50 Santa Ana Events – weather and fuels 45 40 35 LFP 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1- Introduction 2- Methodology From the fall through spring, offshore winds, commonly referred • The SAWTI which predicts Large Fire Potential (LFP) during to as "Santa Ana" winds, occur across southern California from Santa Ana wind events, is informed by both weather and fuels Used by fire agencies and the general public, the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTI) was made publically available on September 17, 2014. The product Ventura County south to Baja California and west of the coastal information. can be accessed at: santaanawildfirethreat.com mountains and passes. Each of these synoptically driven wind • We define LFP to be the likelihood of an ignition reaching or events vary in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial coverage, exceeding 250 acres or approximately 100 ha. thus making them difficult to categorize. Since fuel conditions • For SAWTI, the following equation was formulated: 4- Operational SAWTI tend to be driest from late September through the middle of In 2013, the SAWTI was beta tested through a controlled 2 November, Santa Ana winds occurring during this time have the 퐿퐹푃 = 푊푠 퐷푑퐹푀퐶 release via a password protected website. -
Santa Ana: a Dangerous Wind
ample, they are called mistrals in southern elevation. France, chinooks in the Rocky Mountains In the case of California’s Santa Anas, Geography and boras in northeast Italy and Slovenia. the air that reaches the coast may be very In The In the U.S. Southwest, the katabatic winds hot. Air that descends in elevation heats are called Santa Ana winds. through a process known as adiabatic News™ Winds blowing out of high pressure warming. As air descends, it is compressed cells generate katabatic winds, often be- and it warms at 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit per ginning as cold winds. These high pres- 1,000 feet (1 degree C/100 m). sure cells, containing cold, dense air, may Additionally, katabatic winds are very, Neal Lineback become situated over mountains or high very dry winds. Having originated as and Mandy Lineback Gritzner plateaus. Because air tends to move from cold, dry air and then warmed adiabati- high pressure areas toward surrounding cally, this air may arrive at sea level with low pressure, the air rushes outward from a relative humidity below 10 percent. The SANTA ANA: the center of the high pressure area and temperature of typical Santa Ana wind gravity pulls it into the valleys below. The may exceed100 F (37.8 C) by the time it ap- A DANGEROUS air’s relative weight causes it to hug the proaches sea level. ground. Santa Ana winds normally occur in WIND As the air fl ows toward the lowlands, its Southern California in the fall season fol- Blistering Santa Ana winds whipped velocities increase.