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205 Working Paper December 2020 205 Working Paper December 2020 Technological change and precarity: how technology is changing the UK’s low skill labour market and a search for policy responses By Steffan Willis DPU Working Papers are downloadable at: www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/ development/DPU Working Papers provide an outlet for researchers and professionals working in the fields of development, environment, urban and regional development, and planning. They report on work in progress, with the aim to disseminate ideas and initiate discussion. Comments and correspondence are welcomed by authors and should be sent to them, c/o The Editor, DPU Working Papers. Copyright of a DPU Working Paper lies with the author and there are no restrictions on it being published elsewhere in any version or form. DPU Working Papers are refereed by DPU academic staff and/ or DPU Associates before selection for publication. Texts should be submitted to the DPU Working Papers’ Editor Étienne von Bertrab. Design and layout: Ottavia Pasta 2 Technological change and precarity: how technology is changing the UK’s low skill labour market and a search for policy responses By Steffan Willis Abstract Author Technological change is having significant impacts on the UK’s labour market Steffan Willis and low skill workers in particular. This paper constructs a framework linking the capabilities of technologies to changes in the occupational structure of the Supervisor labour market, arguing that technologies which substitute for low skill labour Dr. Robinson Rojas Sandford weaken the bargaining position of workers relative to employers. The frame- work draws upon two hitherto distinct bodies of work namely, that of a labour MSc Urban Economic Development economics literature on skills-biased technological change and the literature around precarious employment which links labour market flexibility to individ- Development Planning Unit, ual labour market outcomes. This framework is used to analyse the impact University College London of technological change on low skill workers through the lens of precarious employment. The paper adopts a two-stage analytical approach. Using data 2nd September 2019 / from the Labour Force Survey the paper finds evidence of increasing levels reviewed for DPU working paper of precarious employment amongst low skill workers. This is combined with 30th November 2020 a qualitative assessment of the current labour market policy concluding that workers possessing basic levels of education and skills no longer command sufficient bargaining power to ensure high wages and secure employment and that existing government policies do little to enable low skill workers impacted by technological change to develop the skills needed to be competitive in the contemporary labour market. The paper concludes with a discussion of poten- tial policy responses. 3 Content 0105 Introduction 0515 The low skill labour market 15 Technology-driven structural change 19 Precarious employment 22 Precarious employment in the non-graduate labour market 0207 Literature review and theoretical framework 07 Technological change and labour market 09 Labour market flexibility 0625 Current labour 0729 Policy options market policies 30 Minimum wage and 25 National living wage universal basic income 27 Education, training and skills 31 Employees, workers and the self-employed 31 Adult skills policy 0311 Framework 11 Low skilled workers 12 Analytical framework 0834 Conclusion 0414 Methodology 4 There’s never been a better time to be a worker with special skills or the right education… there’s never been a worse time to be a worker with only ‘ordinary’ skills and abilities to offer. 01. Introduction Prophecies of impending automation-induced unemployment are widespread. In 2012 an oft miscited study by Frey & Osborne caused headlines after they found that 47% of jobs in the US were at high risk of automation. Whilst often hyperbolic, these fears are not without some merit. There have been impres- sive advances in artificial intelligence and robotics in recent years, enabling an ever-growing number of tasks to be performed by machines and there have been significant falls in certain ‘at risk’ occupations. History demonstrates that fears of new technologies displacing workers have been a consistent feature of technological change, stretching back to the Luddite revolts of the early 19th century. However, the increase in productive capacity enabled by rapid tech- nological development during the industrial revolution created many more jobs NOTE 01 than it displaced1. Is this time different? When taken at a macro-level, there is Although, significantly for the no clear evidence to suggest that it is - the ratio of employment to population contemporary debate, the conditions rose between 2005 and to 2019, adding 3.3m jobs to the UK economy and in the factories and mills of the period were considerably worse those of the unemployment is at record lows. small-scale hand artisans that they displaced. Source: Engels, 1845. However, whilst the total number of jobs seems unlikely to fall, the type of jobs will almost certainly change significantly over the medium to long term. These shifts in the occupational structure of the labour market will depend on whether workers possess skills which are either augmented by, or substituted for, technology. Quoting Brynjolfsson & McAfee (pg. 11, 2014) in The Second Machine Age: “there’s never been a better time to be a worker with special skills or the right education…there’s never been a worse time to be a worker with only ‘ordi- nary’ skills and abilities to offer” This paper is about the ‘ordinary’ worker. What impact is technological change having on the employment outcomes of low skilled workers in the UK labour market and what policy responses are needed to ameliorate the most pernicious effects? Drawing upon theories of technological change developed by labour economists, this paper constructs a framework linking the capa- bilities of technologies to changes in the occupational structure of the labour market, arguing that technologies which substitute for low skill labour weaken the bargaining position of workers relative to employers. Having made this link, the impact on low skill workers is analysed through the lens of precarious employment defined as low income, low quality, low security employment. Framed within the current policy context this paper asks, what impact is tech- nological change having on the incidence of precarious employment amongst low skilled workers in the UK labour market and what policy responses are 5 needed to ameliorate the most pernicious effects? Section 2 begins with a thorough review of the relevant literature, aiming to draw out and critique the main theoretical concepts which then inform the conceptual and analytical framework described in section 3. The research process followed a two-step process. Section 5 provides descriptive analysis of the key trends impacting low skill workers, finding evidence of increasing incidence of precarious employment amongst this population. This is cou- pled with a qualitative assessment of the current labour market policy context in section 6. The conclusion, which feeds into the policy recommendations outlined in section 7, is that workers possessing basic levels of education and skills no longer command sufficient bargaining power to ensure high wages and secure employment and that existing government policies do little to en- able low skill workers impacted by technological change to develop the skills needed to thrive in the contemporary labour market. The policy responses fall into two categories: those which tackle the issues of low income and lack of security associated with precarious employment and those designed to equip workers with skills augmented by technology. Framed within the current policy context this paper asks, what impact is technological change having on the incidence of precarious employment amongst low skilled workers in the UK labour market and what policy responses are needed to ameliorate the most pernicious effects? FIGURE 1.1 Neil Schofield (2019). Gig Economy. Licensed under 6creative commons (CC BY-NC 2.0). Avaiable here. Technological change increases the demand for higher level skills. If demand outpaces supply, then the wages of highly skilled workers will rise relative to lower skilled workers. 02. Literature review and theoretical framework This section provides a thorough review and critique of two distinct but interre- lated bodies of literature, namely a labour economics literature focused on the impact of technological change on labour markets and a literature which links labour market flexibility with individuals’ labour market outcomes. The theories underpinning these literatures are drawn out and evaluated and then summa- rised into a conceptual and analytical framework in Section 3. 2.1 Technological change and labour markets How has technological change impacted labour markets? This question has been the subject of academic debate amongst, primarily US-focused, classi- cal labour economists since the 1970s. Tinbergen (1974), looking to explain widening income inequality, proposed a model of supply and demand for skills, arguing that technological change increases the demand for higher level skills. If demand outpaces supply, then the wages of highly skilled workers will rise relative to lower skilled workers. This insight formed the basis of the skill-biased technological change (SBTC) hypothesis that was developed by, amongst others, Katz & Murphy (1992),
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