The Atlantic alliance is as important as ever, but the US will face new challenges in getting its partners to pull their weight.

A NATO E-3 AWACS flies a mission over Germany. NATO has long operated a fleet of 17 jointly owned and operated E-3A aircraft.

USAF photo by TSgt. Bennie J. Davis III

NATO’s WobbleBy Peter Grier

s Europe beginning a slow-motion capitals seem most concerned with de- need to guard against unpleasant sur- abandonment of NATO? As the fense closer to home. This preference is prises—such as an aggressive Russia Atlantic alliance’s long operation more in line with the Alliance’s historic or belligerent Iran. in Afghanistan winds down, some roots as a Euro-centric entity. Some Al- Perhaps NATO is now entering its observers see this as the case. liance members have declined to take third era. The first was the Cold War IEuropean defense budgets have been part in Alliance contingency operations against Soviet expansionism. The second on a downward slope for years, and this or have sent only token detachments. was the scramble to accept new members decline is likely to continue as the region Yet NATO has survived and will while handling a variety of conflicts fol- struggles to recover from the recession probably continue do so. lowing the fall of the Berlin Wall. The and battered economies of the past four third may well be a post-Afghanistan years. Defense capabilities are being Post-Afghanistan Retrenchment retrenchment. This could be a time of meaningfully cut at a time when the The reasons it came to be and has consolidation as allies work on making technology imbalance between NATO served as the most successful security their militaries more complementary haves and have-nots—evident in air alliance in history still hold. Europe and reach out to neighbor groups in the operations over Libya—is already a wants a means to anchor the US in Alliance near-abroad. serious Alliance concern. that continent. After centuries of con- “NATO will survive as an alliance. While the US itself will focus ad- flict, most European governments still We’ve moved a long way from the Cold ditional strategic attention on Asia and think the denationalization of defense War via different concerns, via different the Middle East, some NATO-member is a fine idea. And there is always the risks, but it’s still a pretty robust alliance

AIR FORCE Magazine / February 2013 45 capabilities in terms of who ‘could but wouldn’t’ and who ‘would but couldn’t,’ ” said Hammond in a No- vember 2012 speech at the UK’s Chief of the Air Staff airpower conference. Hammond added that with the US now rethinking its strategic options, Europe will have to accept more responsibility for its own security and for its periphery. That will mean shouldering a major burden in continuing stability operations USAF photo by Navy Petty Officer 1st ClassTab Ryan in the Balkans and Mediterranean—and perhaps taking on a bigger role in North Africa and the Middle East. “The bottom line is that Europe, as a whole, needs to do more, at a time when the reality is that, across the continent, aggregate defense expenditure is certain to fall in the short term and, at best, recover slowly in the medium term,” The multinational Heavy Airlift Wing, based at Papa AB, Hungary, flew members of Hammond said. So the challenge is, if the NATO International Military Committee to Kabul, Afghanistan, in one of its three C-17 Globemaster IIIs. The 12-nation HAW was formed in 2009 to operate the airlift- Europe can’t spend more, it must do ers under the Strategic Airlift Capabilty arrangment. things differently, he said.

that’s never everything we want it to be,” More recently, British Minister of Vertical Cuts said Malcolm Chalmers, research director Defense Philip Hammond plowed the The word that might best describe of the Royal United Services Institute ground of NATO’s Libya operation, saying NATO budgets is “constrained.” The for Defense and Security Studies, at a the demands of enforcing a no-fly zone Alliance’s informal goal is for members Brookings Institution seminar last year. exposed the growing gap between Alli- to spend two percent of their gross The North Atlantic Treaty, which ance countries. All 28 NATO members domestic product on defense. established the Alliance, was signed voted to approve the Libya mission, led According to figures compiled by the in Washington, D.C., on April 4, 1949. by Britain and France. Half then agreed World Bank, which uses a broad measure Since then member nations have often to take part, while only seven participated for defense accounts, in 2011 the only been embroiled in arguments about their in actual strike operations. NATO quickly NATO nations reaching this benchmark mutual strategic direction. In the early ran short of precision munitions and had were France, Greece, Portugal, Turkey, 1950s, NATO struggled to accommodate to call on the US for resupply. Europe’s the UK, and the US. historic adversaries Greece and Turkey lack of intelligence, surveillance, and Taken as a whole, America’s Euro- within the military command structure. reconnaissance assets meant Americans pean allies spend about 1.5 percent of The 1979 decision to deploy new Per- had to supply crucial ISR capacity. their GDP on the military, according shing II nuclear missiles in Europe in The Libya operation “shone a bright to Council on Foreign Relations senior response to Soviet SS-20 IRBMs was light on relative military and political fellow Charles A. Kupchan. The com- fraught with controversy. The collapse of the Soviet Union left the Alliance rudderless for a time. The beginning of the latest era of NATO pontification came with Robert M. Gates’ valedictory speech as US Secretary of Defense. In June 2011, DOD photo by Cherie Cullen Gates warned that a new generation of post-Cold War US political leaders might walk away from Europe due to exasperation over European dithering and continued defense cuts. “In the past, I’ve worried openly about NATO turning into a two-tiered alliance, between members who special- ize in ‘soft’ humanitarian, development, peacekeeping, and talking tasks, and those conducting the ‘hard’ combat missions. ... This is no longer a hy- pothetical worry. We are there today. And it is unacceptable,” said Gates in a Then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates (r) attends the first session of the NATO blistering address in Brussels, Belgium, Defense Ministers’ meetings in Brussels, Belgium, on March 10, 2011. That June, to top European officers and officials. Gates expressed exasperation over European defense cuts. 46 AIR FORCE Magazine / February 2013 only way to achieve real savings and to protect their most desired capabilities,” according to the NDU scholars. For its part, the US is already plan- ning vertical reductions in Europe. In January 2012 the Obama Administration announced it would withdraw two Army USAF photo by SSgt. Quinton Russ brigade combat teams and an Air Force fighter squadron from Germany by 2014. These withdrawals—with associated changes in command structures—will reduce the US footprint on the continent by some 11,000 personnel. When they are finished, the American presence in Europe will stand at just under 70,000 personnel. The brigade combat teams represent the last US heavy armor units deployed on European soil. Infantry and armored TSgt. Jin Yum (r) and an Afghan counterpart perform a seven-day inspection on the cavalry BCTs will remain. rotor of an Mi-17 helicopter during a NATO training mission in Afghanistan. After To Pentagon budget-planners these NATO passes off security responsibility to the Afghans in 2014, some US trainers adjustments may make sense. The lighter will remain to try to bolster indigenous capabilities. US units that remain in many ways are a better fit with Europe’s own land armies. parable figure for the US is more than the subject from NDU’s Institute for But European officials might take the four percent. The US is likely to scale National Strategic Studies. change harder. back the Pentagon’s budget in coming A few nations have saved money “The withdrawal of heavy brigades re- years, and that may make Washington through highly visible vertical cuts moves US main battle tanks in Europe for even more sensitive to the ability of its that eliminate a particular system or the first time since 1944. The symbolism partners to pick up their fair share of capability. Netherlands, for instance, of this passage for our allies is far more NATO responsibilities. has eliminated heavy tanks. In turn, this significant than it is for Washington. “Inequitable burden sharing has means the Dutch can afford missile de- Reassurance of the US commitment to strained trans-Atlantic relations even fense radars for deployment on frigates. collective defense is at a premium not in good economic times,” said Kupchan The danger of vertical cuts is that only because of US troop drawdowns; in 2012 testimony to the Senate Com- they can take place without regard for fears of gradual decoupling have been mittee on Foreign Relations. what one’s compatriots are doing. This growing in recent years due to the US There are disparities hidden within could lead to a growing “self-selection” focus first on the Middle East/South the overall downward trend of Europe’s of roles within the Alliance, according Asia regions and now on the Pacific,” defense budgets. In general, the smallest to Barry and Binnendijk. write Barry and Binnendijk. NATO members have slashed the most. They judge that the current tight fis- So how to keep the old NATO gang Lithuania cut its defense 36 percent cal environment will last until at least together? For a start, officials might in 2010 alone. Medium-size nations 2018. “In the future, more cuts will be concentrate on the positives. have implemented overall reductions vertical as nations realize this is the In Libya, NATO aircraft helped drive around 10 to 15 percent, according to a Brookings Institution study on NATO defense cuts. Larger European Union RAF photo nations such as Germany and the UK have limited cuts to around eight percent for the 2011-2015 period. Meanwhile, Poland (one of NATO’s newer members) has actually increased military spending since the beginning of the continent’s economic crisis. Most of Europe’s military reductions have been horizontal, applied evenly across operations, maintenance, and investment accounts. “These typical responses result in a growing array of forces that are not ready, not trained, and not sufficiently equipped or sup- plied—a widening ‘invisible’ gap across the Alliance,” write National Defense An RAF Tornado GR4 links up with a US Air Force KC-135 for refueling while on an University scholars Charles Barry and Operation Odyssey Dawn mission over Libya. The technological imbalances among Hans Binnendijk in a recent report on NATO nations were clear in that operation. AIR FORCE Magazine / February 2013 47 a tyrant from power in an operation led by Britain and France. NATO sea pa- trols have contributed to cutting the rate of piracy by three-quarters of previous levels in the dangerous waters of the Gulf of Aden and off the Horn of Africa. In the face of Russian complaints, NATO members reached a difficult political USAF photo TSgt.by Jacob BaileyN. and military consensus on the deploy- ment of ballistic missile defenses, and American BMD radar was deployed to Turkey and began operation in December 2011. Romania and Poland have agreed to host interceptor missile sites beginning in 2015 and 2018, respectively, and four interceptor-equipped Aegis warships will be based in Spain beginning in 2014. In Afghanistan, the end is in sight for NATO’s largest and longest combat operation. At the 2012 Chicago NATO summit, allies agreed to hand over defense of the country to Afghan forces in 2014. Afghanistan’s future remains in question Defense Secretary Leon Panetta (r) and NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmus- due to continued Taliban strength and sen hold a press conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels. Rasmussen is endemic corruption in Hamid Karzai’s pushing for more joint development, acquisition, and maintenance assets among government, but throughout the difficult NATO partner nations. Afghan experience NATO allies have largely stuck with the US—however controlled robots for clearing roadside global security organization. That would much some may have been edging to- bombs to the pooling of maritime patrol be an unsupportable financial burden and ward the exits. aircraft to multinational medical facili- create insurmountable political divides, After 2014 some NATO trainers will ties. At the Chicago summit Denmark according to Kupchan. “Trying to turn remain to try and bolster indigenous signed on as the 14th ally to join a group the Alliance into an all-purpose vehicle of units, and the Alliance as a whole will purchase of five Global Hawk remotely choice for military operations around the defray the cost of this effort. piloted aircraft for delivery around 2015. world would likely lead to its demise, not “Up to this point the US has been revitalization,” Kupchan told the Senate responsible for 90 to 95 percent of the Co-op Shopping Foreign Relations Committee. cost of sustaining and building the ANSF, “The Alliance will pay for the operation The Alliance needs to keep its military the Afghan [national security] forces. and support and maintenance as well as forces in as fine a shape as possible. Mis- In the future, from 2015 onwards, this the infrastructure for these drones,” said sions on Europe’s edge or in its backyard will be a shared responsibility,” said US Daalder. “And as a result, we now have a of North Africa and the Middle East can Permanent Representative to NATO Ivo capability that individual countries could emerge without warning. In 2010, few H. Daalder. He spoke during a Council never purchase themselves, and that’s a envisioned NATO-led Tornados over on Foreign Relations briefing following real capability with real output down the Tripoli. the Chicago meeting. line. And that’s how we need to in these But in coming years some of NATO’s As to the future of forces in an era next few years focus on spending our most effective contributions to global of defense cuts, clearly NATO must try dollars and Euros more wisely.” security may come in the form of capac- to do more—or at least the same—with But co-op shopping isn’t something ity building, according to Kupchan. It less. Already in Europe, governments are the Alliance just discovered. NATO has could teach others the things that have beginning to shift defense dollars away long operated a fleet of 17 jointly owned served the Atlantic community so well: from personnel to investment, according and flown E-3A AWACS aircraft. There is regional cooperation on military and to Daalder. The US has long complained also the newer and smaller joint strategic political questions. that European defense forces are soldier- airlift wing of three C-17s, with NATO “Some of the most important secu- heavy and spend too little on procurement members representing most of the 12 rity institutions of the 21st century are and research and development. Now the partner nations. likely to be regional ones, such as the Germans, for instance, appear to have Most of the projects listed as Smart De- Gulf Cooperation Council, the African taken this to heart and are rebalancing fense efforts are relatively small. Nobody Union, the Association of Southeast their military budget. is talking about something as revolution- Asian Nations, and the Union of South In addition, NATO Secretary General ary as a multinational air force—not yet. American Nations. NATO should be in- Anders Fogh Rasmussen is pushing for In the wake of the Afghanistan operation vesting in the efficacy of these regional more joint development, acquisition, it is clear NATO is unlikely to turn into a bodies,” Kupchan said. n and maintenance of assets via a “Smart Defense” initiative. Currently the Al- Peter Grier, a Washington, D.C., editor for the Christian Science Monitor, is a longtime liance boasts 24 multinational Smart contributor to Air Force Magazine. His most recent article, “The Death of Korean Air Defense efforts, ranging from remotely Lines Flight 007,” appeared in January. 48 AIR FORCE Magazine / February 2013