THE GAME WITHIN THE GAME YOUR 2019 BETTING GUIDE TO THE AFL SEASON INTRODUCTION In anticipation of the AFL Season, Betfair has partnered with professional punters to preview 2019. They share their best bets for the: • Premiership • Minor Premiership • Top 4 • Top 8 • Least Season Wins • Coleman Medal Plus, you’ll get a comprehensive preview of the 2019 Brownlow Medal. We’re incredibly excited to watch, and bet, on the AFL in 2019. Betfair’s 2.5% commission rate is arguably the lowest take out rate in the industry. In fact, to put 2.5% in perspective, let’s look at an example: If you back a line bet at $2 on the Betfair Exchange, you’re effectively getting $1.975. And that’s before any discount rates. So the most you’ll pay is $1.975 on that bet. That’s a whopping 7.5% better than a $1.90 line at the TAB. NEW PRODUCTS Not only does Betfair provide incomparably better odds during 2019, we’re also offering two new products: 1. Betfair Starting Price (BSP) 2. Multis Just like Racing, Betfair now offers the BSP for AFL. This allows you to put up a bet at your desired odds, but if that goes unmatched, you can take the BSP at the start of the game. Never go unmatched again. And multis. We know AFL punters love them. But at corporate bookmakers, generally speaking, multis have significant margin built in. So we wanted to offer multibets without multiplying the profit margin. You’ll only pay 2.5% commission at Betfair. Very different to approximately 8.1% margin on a three legged market with some corporate bookmakers. THE GAME WITHIN THE GAME 2019 AFL BETTING GUIDE AFL PREMIERSHIP WINNER Best Bet: Melbourne ($7.8)* Expectations are as high as they have been in a generation for the Demons following a stellar 2018 season that saw them finish fourth after 11 straight seasons without finals footy. Having been without a flag since 1964, the club is no doubt trying to keep a lid on it. With one of the most impressive lists led by a midfield that oozes class, and one that has been bolstered by some astute backline recruiting. Even the departure of star forward Jesse Hogan won’t worry the Dees. Each of the last three premiers rose sharply to title success after either a sustained run of outs or floating around the fringe of the finals, so the Demons shouldn’t be discounted in the slightest. The Dees don’t have an easy draw but have the talent to post a Top 4 finish and will be far better for last year’s finals experience. Value Bet: Sydney ($23) The Swans get written off just about every single year. At $23 on the Betfair Exchange, which is good for the ninth favourite, it looks like they have been again. Callum Mills, Sam Reid and Sam Naismith all return to the team after injuries last year. While there was no big-name recruit for them, those three back into the 22 significantly improve the team. Along with the pickup of a motivated Daniel Menzel. Buddy Franklin is still the most damaging player in the AFL and Bobby Skilton Medalist Jake Lloyd is becoming a serious weapon for them off half back. Natural improvement from the likes of Hewett, Cunningham and Aliir, plus their top draft pick Nick Blakey, will give them great balance across the park. You do worry about how the new rules might affect the Swans if the game becomes purely a case of who has more leg speed but we trust John Longmire to form a game plan that will win them games on their terms. Along with the veteran experience of their spine. They look a great price to be right back to the top. *All odds in this eBook are accurate at 3.00pm on 12/3/19. THE GAME WITHIN THE GAME 2019 AFL BETTING GUIDE MINOR PREMIERS Best Bet: Richmond ($4.4) The Tigers are the standout play in minor premiership betting. Richmond won the flag two years ago before finishing top of the ladder last year. Minor premiers have a strong history of staying at the top for multiple seasons. Over the last two decades, five teams have gone either back-to-back or three-peated. Of the last five teams to win the minor premiership by eight points or more, three have gone on to win it again the next season. TOP 4 VALUE Best Bet: West Coast ($2.0) The AFL Top 4 historically doesn’t have a lot of turnover and the best bet is nearly always the defending premier. What is most surprising this year is the price available for West Coast to post a Top 4 finish. They possess one of the best home ground advantages in the AFL, going 35-9 over the last four regular seasons. They’ve lost none of their core and remain a defensive powerhouse with the right list balance. TOP 4 LAY Best Bet: Essendon ($3.15) The Bombers won another off-season. Adding Dylan Shiel to the 2017 acquisition class of Adam Saad, Devon Smith, Jake Stringer. With the natural improvement in Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, and the healthy return of Joe Daniher, you can understand their optimism. However, their Top 4 case isn’t as strong as Richmond, Collingwood, West Coast, Melbourne, Adelaide, and potentially GWS and Geelong. Of the seven teams mentioned, Essendon has the weakest home ground advantage. We’re also unconvinced that they have the leadership to challenge the competition’s best. They’re simply under the odds to finish in the Top 4 during 2019. THE GAME WITHIN THE GAME 2019 AFL BETTING GUIDE TOP 8 VALUE Best Bet: Geelong ($1.86) Geelong have played finals football in 13 of the last 15 seasons. As an organisation, there are few more reliable. Yet the Cats are forecast by the market to just miss out in 2019. Geelong have won fewer than 15 regular season games just twice in the Chris Scott era, a remarkable effort over his eight years in charge. Gary Rohan and Luke Dalhaus have added depth to an already impressive list led by Patrick Dangerfield. The Cats can press for a Top 4 spot. LEAST SEASON WINS Best Bet: Gold Coast ($1.59) Taking the shorts about a bet that will take close to seven months to settle but there is only one team who will be taking home the wooden spoon in the AFL this year. The Suns have surprisingly claimed only one wooden spoon but that, in our opinion, will be added to in 2019. They have finished bottom four in each of the last four seasons, including second-last the previous two seasons. The Suns list is about as bad as they come with hardly a single noteworthy player to call on. COLEMAN MEDAL Best Bet: Tom McDonald ($11.0) The departure of Jesse Hogan from the Demons has made Tom McDonald the main man and he ticks a lot of boxes when it comes to looking at him for the Coleman. McDonald booted 53 goals in 20 games for the Dees last year. He is set to again play for a Top 4 team with the last six winners all coming from teams who finished sixth or higher on the ladder. The Demons kicked more goals than any other team in 2018. At double figures he is very much a bet of high confidence. THE GAME WITHIN THE GAME 2019 AFL BROWNLOW MEDAL Firstly, did you read our 2018 Brownlow eBook? The Analysts correctly predicted Tom Mitchell (they said 27.5, he had 28). They also predicted Tom Mitchell at the start of the 2018 season: Tom Mitchell ($14): In it up to his eye balls. You know what you’re getting week to week and he doesn’t get attention from defensive mids. 35 possies a game and improvement out of Hawthorn could see him bettering the 25 votes of 2017. Needs to hit the scoresheet more though. Averages of 0.5/0.5/0.4 need to be improved on to be considered a medal chance and not just a TOP 3-5. Hawthorn were top four and Mitchell hit 35 disposals. Inevitably, it was enough to better that 25 votes in 2017. 2019 PREVIEW Last year’s winner is unfortunately sidelined with injury but what he proved was that landing in the ‘sweet spot’ of past winner’s statistical averages gives you every chance of taking home the medal. Unfortunately, there are more than a few contenders this year have that capability. That sweet spot being: • 20+ games • 30 possessions per game • 15-20+ goals per season • A positive +/- free kick differential • A top eight team - since 2000 (including Jobe Watson), only three Brownlow winners have come from teams outside the top eight • 6+ clearances a game Despite Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn polling well in 2019, they were still eight and 10 votes off the winner. And the last ruckman to win was Scott Wynd in 1992. For that reason, we’re focusing on elite midfielders that match our sweet spot: Dustin Martin ($7.4) – Lay. 2018 disposal count was down 19% against his Brownlow year with injury concerns and a change in role contributing factors. The Tigers proved they’re not so Dusty reliant anymore with an even spread of contributors throughout the 2018 season. Compounded by a slight knee scare in JLT one, and injury concerns throughout 2018, we’re uncertain if Dusty has the legs for 20+ games.