Week Ending March 27

TRACKING THE COVID-19 ECONOMY WEEKLY LABOR MARKET INFORMATION

Week ending March 27, 2021 Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims for the Three-State Region For the week ending March 27, 2021, workers filed 41,404 initial UI claims (NSA) in our three-state region — more than the prior week’s 31,671 (revised), but far below the historic peak of 599,446 for the week ending March 28, 2020. Workers also filed 20,258 initial Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) claims for the week ending March 27, 2021, in our three states. The PUA program provides benefits for workers who are not eligible for regular UI benefits. Initial UI claims plus initial PUA claims were 61,662 for the week ending March 27. Prior to the pandemic, the 52- week average of initial UI claims was about 24,000 for the week ending March 14, 2020. Compared with the prior week, initial UI claims across our three states: . fell to 1,373 from 1,482 (revised) in Delaware; . rose to 19,475 from 10,441 (revised) in New Jersey; and . rose to 20,556 from 19,748 (revised) in Pennsylvania.

Millions, NSA Millions, NSA 0.7 6 Initial 0.6 5 PUA 0.5 4 0.4 Continued PUA 3 0.3 PEUC 2 0.2

0.1 1

0.0 0 3/7 5/2 6/27 8/22 10/17 12/12 2/6 4/3 3/7 5/2 6/27 8/22 10/17 12/12 2/6 4/3 2020 2021 2020 2021 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; not seasonally adjusted (NSA) For the week ending March 20, 2021, continued UI claims in our three-state region fell to 378,451 (NSA) — from the prior week’s 404,929 (revised). Workers may draw Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) benefits after their regular weeks of UI benefits are exhausted. Compared with the prior week, continued UI claims across our three states: . rose to 11,604 from 11,454 (revised) in Delaware; . fell to 115,514 from 120,159 (revised) in New Jersey; and . fell to 251,333 from 273,316 (revised) in Pennsylvania. For the week ending March 13, workers in the three-state region also filed continued claims in these programs: . 800,086 PUA claims, and . 553,350 PEUC claims. Total continued UI claims for the week ending March 13 were 1.8 million compared with a 52-week average of about 200,000 for the week ending March 14, 2020.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia | Research Department www.philadelphiafed.org TRACKING THE COVID-19 ECONOMY WEEKLY LABOR MARKET INFORMATION

Week ending March 27, 2021 Unemployment Insurance (UI) Claims for the U.S. For the week ending March 27, 2021, workers filed 714,433 initial UI claims (NSA) — more than the prior week’s 651,151 (revised). Workers also filed 237,025 initial PUA claims for the week ending March 27 — for a total of 951,458 initial claims. The 52-week average of initial UI claims was about 215,000 for the week ending March 14, 2020. Initial UI claims set a historic peak of 6,161,308 for the week ending April 4, 2020 (revised). Continued UI claims for the week ending March 20, 2021, fell to 4,142,940 (NSA) from the prior week’s 4,233,636 (revised). The 52-week average of continued UI claims was just 1.7 million for the week ending March 14, 2020. However, for the week ending March 13, 2021, a total of 18.2 million continued claims were filed from all programs, including: . 7.3 million PUA claims, . 5.5 million PEUC claims, and . 1.1 million from the Extended Benefits program and other small programs (not depicted in the graph). Continued UI claims typically fall slowly from recession peaks. During the Great Recession, continued UI claims peaked at 6.5 million and about five years passed before continued UI claims returned to pre-recession levels. Millions, NSA Millions, NSA 7 35 Continued PUA 6 30 Initial 5 25 PEUC 4 20 PUA 3 15

2 10

1 5

0 0 3/7 5/2 6/27 8/22 10/17 12/12 2/6 4/3 3/7 5/2 6/27 8/22 10/17 12/12 2/6 4/3 2020 2021 2020 2021 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Haver Analytics; not seasonally adjusted (NSA)

Notes: PEUC and PUA claims data for any given week may include backdated claims from prior weeks. Thus, observed trends may not reflect economic trends. Source: Initial and continued (UI) claims are gathered by individual states and are typically released on Thursday mornings at 8:30 a.m. by the Employment and Training Administration of the U.S. Department of Labor. https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia | Research Department www.philadelphiafed.org TRACKING THE COVID-19 ECONOMY WEEKLY LABOR MARKET INFORMATION

Week ending March 21, 2021 ASA Weekly Staffing Index The ASA Weekly Staffing Index fell to 93.1 for the week ending March 21, 2021. Other than seasonal drops, the index has tended to rise since hitting a low of 59.6 for the week ending April 26, 2020. However, the sudden, sharp rise for the week ending February 28, 2021, appeared to be an anomaly — a pattern not seen other than during rebounds following declines at major holidays. This week’s drop may represent a partial correction. The year-over-year change in this index was 13.8 percent for the week ending March 21, 2021 — a comparison that will grow significantly over the next four weeks when compared with 2020 at the outset of the pandemic. More useful comparisons can be made with 2019 and 2018. The index was even with the 2019 index for the comparable week and 1.9 percent below the comparable week in 2018 — the year with the highest annual average index. Index, 2006=100 110 2018 100

90 2019 80 2021 2020 70

50 Jan Apr Jul Oct Note: This index is highly seasonal (see below). To aid visual comparisons, the upper chart depicts 52 weeks for key years.

Index, 2006=100 110 90 70 50 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Source: American Staffing Association via Haver Analytics

Sources: The ASA Staffing Index tracks weekly changes in temporary and contract employment and is typically released on Tuesday mornings. The index is generated from a survey of U.S. staffing firms by the American Staffing Association. americanstaffing.net/staffing-index americanstaffing.net/index

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia | Research Department www.philadelphiafed.org