Warding Pattern Arrangements Submission to the Local Government Boundary Commission for England by the Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames CONTENTS 1. Introduction 2 ​ 2. Borough Profile 3 ​ 3. Current Arrangements 8 Current Warding Patterns 8 Neighbourhoods 9 4. Principles of the Warding Review 11 Stage 1 Council Sizing 11 Statutory Criteria 11 Electoral Equality 11 Community Identity 12 Number of Councillors per Ward 13 ​ 5. Warding Recommendations 14 Summary 14 ​ Motspur Park and Old Malden 15 King Georges and Sunray 20 Chessington and Hook 23 Surbiton, Berrylands and Tolworth 28 Norbiton 42 New Malden 45 Kingston 51 Coombe 62 1 1. Introduction 1.1. This report forms the Royal Borough of Kingston’s response to the second stage of the review of electoral arrangements undertaken within the Borough by the Local Government Boundary Commission for England. It sets out the Council’s preferred pattern of ward boundaries and associated arrangements including the number of Wards, the number of Councillors within each ward and the names of the wards. 1.2. The Council has arrived at these proposals following extensive engagement and consultation with ward Members in every part of the Borough. This has taken the form of both workshops and one to one and small group meetings as well as an online questionnaire issued to all Members. The work has been overseen by a cross party Member Reference Group comprising two Councillors from each of the Administration Liberal Democrat Group and the Opposition Conservative Group. 1.3. The report was approved for submission by the meeting of the Full Council on 17 December 2019. 1.4. The proposals have been drawn up on the basis of the Boundary Commission’s conclusion following the first stage of the review that it is minded to recommend that the Borough should continue to be represented by the present total of 48 elected Councillors. The Council’s submission also takes into account the three criteria applied by the Commission relating to electoral equality, community identity and effective and convenient local government and reflects the Technical Guidance issued by the Boundary Commission for the conduct of electoral reviews. 2 2. Borough Profile 2.1. The Royal Borough of Kingston Upon Thames is located in south west London, on the banks of the Thames, 12 miles from the centre of the city. It covers 3,756 hectares and has a population of 180,600. The Borough has excellent transport links so is well placed as a visitor and commercial centre and Kingston’s town centre is a popular shopping and entertainment destination. In addition to the town of Kingston Upon Thames itself there are several other distinct local areas within the Borough. These include Berrylands, Chessington, Coombe, Hook, New Malden, Surbiton and Tolworth. The borough contains significant areas of public parks and open spaces. 2.2. The local authority area includes two parliamentary constituencies. Kingston and Surbiton lies wholly within the administrative boundary of the Royal Borough, while the wards of Canbury, Coombe Hill, Coombe Vale and Tudor in the north of the borough constitute part of the Richmond Park constituency. 2.3. As the oldest royal borough in London, dating back to 838AD, Kingston has a proud history, intrinsically linked to its unique location on the River Thames. In the tenth Century, seven Anglo-Saxon kings were crowned in Kingston, and the Coronation Stone now stands in the grounds of the Guildhall. A market in Kingston has flourished since the 13th Century, and the ancient market place and stalls in the town centre were rejuvenated in 2014, which gained a RIBA Regional London Award in 2016. Surbiton saw one of the last battles of the English Civil Wars, which was fought in 1648. Such elements contribute to the borough’s attractive, distinctive image and character. It is important to conserve and enhance what makes the borough and its local areas different, to retain and enhance its unique local identity. Heritage assets form part of 3 the borough’s identity and play a critical role in the regeneration of the borough by creating a distinctive character experienced by all. 2.4. Kingston is one of the smallest boroughs in South West London; as well as bordering the London boroughs of Richmond, Sutton, Merton and Wandsworth it shares borders with the Surrey districts of Elmbridge, Epsom & Ewell and Mole Valley. 2.5. Like the rest of London, Kingston’s population is growing. The total projected population for 2019 is 180,600 and this is anticipated to rise to 228,500 by 2050. Kingston is home to a higher proportion of older residents (aged 65+) compared with London and this age group is projected to grow from 24,800 in 2019 to 45,100 in 2050. The number of young people (aged 0-19) is set to increase from 44,000 in 2019 to 50,300 in 2050. 2019 2025 2030 2050 Projected 180,600 190,300 202,000 228,500 population (+9,700; +5.4% (+21,400; +11.8% (+47,900; +26.5% against 2019) against 2019) against 2019 Older Residents 24,800 28,100 32,000 45,100 (65+) (+3,300; +13.3% (+7,200; +29% (+20,300; +81.9% against 2019) against 2019) against 2019) Young People 44,000 46,500 47,300 in 2030 50,300 (0-19 years) (+2,500; +5.7% (+3,300; +7.5% (+6,300; +14.3% against 2019) against 2019) against 2019) Source: GLA 2016 Housing led population projections 2.6. Whilst people living longer is something to celebrate, Kingston’s growing population - particularly the growth in younger and older cohorts who tend to require more social care support - puts increasing pressure on a range of local services, particularly social care and housing. 4 Total population projected to 2050 Source: GLA 2016 Housing led population projections 2.7. Kingston is an increasingly diverse borough and will have an estimated BAME population of 35.3% by 2025. 32.7% of current working aged adults are from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic groups. Year Ethnic Group 2019 2019 2025 2025 Number % Number % White 121,900 67.5% 123,200 64.7% British/Irish/Other BAME 58,700 32.5% 67,100 35.3% Source: GLA 2016 Housing led population projections 2.8. Residents of Kingston are generally in good health, with 86% self-reporting their health as being good or better. Like much of the country, obesity levels are a concern - 53% of the borough’s adults are classed as overweight or obese1. That said, Kingston compares favourably to London and England on this and against a range of health and lifestyle indicators, including life-expectancy. 1 Public Health England 2016/17 ​ 5 Self reported health per 100 persons Source: ONS 2011 Census 2.9. Kingston ranks as the second least deprived local authority in London and is 143rd out of 152 authorities in England. Nonetheless, there are pockets of relative deprivation. The Index of Multiple Deprivation ranks every small area in England from 1 (most deprived area) to 32,844 (least deprived area). Three of Kingston’s 98 small areas - within the current Norbiton, Berrylands and Beverly wards - fall within the top 30% for deprivation in the country. Deprivation score - comparison with London boroughs Source: DCLG 2015 2.10. Kingston’s education outcomes are strong, with the borough consistently ranking among the best local authorities nationally for educational attainment at both GCSE and A-Level. 77.5% (93,000) of 16-64 year olds are economically active, 4.0% of which are unemployed (2017/18). This is lower than both London (5.0%) and England (4.3%). 6 % of 16-64 year olds economically active Source: ONS Annual population survey (June 2018) 2.11. Kingston is amongst the safest boroughs in London, with crime rates - including anti-social behaviour, violence and sexual offences - significantly lower than the London average. Total crime rate comparison across London (Sept 2017 - Aug 2018) Source: data.police.uk 7 3. Current Arrangements Current Warding Patterns 3.1. Since the previous Boundary Commission review, undertaken in 1999, the Council has operated with 48 Councillors divided into 16 wards as arranged in the map attached at Appendix 1. In accordance with the uniform requirements in London at the time of the ​ last review each of these wards are represented by three Councillors. Elections to the whole Council take place every four years with the next scheduled for May 2022. 3.2. On the basis of the forecast electorate for 2025, which projects a target of one Councillor per 2,572 electors, six of the 16 existing wards (38%) would at that point breach the maximum variation of +/- 10% if no change were to be made to the current warding arrangements. This would be a sufficiently significant deviation from the guidelines to trigger intervention by the Local Government Boundary Commission. 3.3. The greatest discrepancy would be found in Kingston where Canbury, which has seen a number of major developments reach completion in recent years, would have an electorate more than 21% larger than the target figure and Grove would be 13.1% above (the third Kingston ward, Tudor, would have a deficit of 9.1%, at the outer limits of the tolerance). Significant variances would also be recorded in Coombe Hill (-14.8%), St Marks (-12%), Tolworth and Hook Rise (+11.7%) and Chessington North and Hook (-10.1%). Only seven wards, fewer than half the total, would be within the ideal variation of +/- 5%. 3.4. The table below provides details of the electorate totals and electoral equality projections to 2025 for each of the existing wards.