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Key Concepts of the NWS WRN Roadmap

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Key Concepts of the NWS WRN Roadmap April 2013 NWS WRN Roadmap Table of Contents Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................... 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................. 4 1. Services Plan ......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1. Service Concepts ........................................................................................................................... 5 1.1.1. Shift from Product-Focused Service to Interpretation and Consultation .............................. 6 1.1.2. Communicate On-demand, Reliable, Quantified, and Comprehensible Forecast Confidence Information ........................................................................................................ 7 1.1.3. Improve Usefulness of Forecast and Warning Information for Decision-Making ............... 7 1.1.4. Emergency Response Specialists (ERS)............................................................................... 7 1.1.5. Rapid Deployment ................................................................................................................ 8 1.1.6. Integration into NIMS and the National Response Framework ........................................... 8 1.1.7. Foundational Datasets .......................................................................................................... 8 1.1.8. Deliver Information that Clearly Conveys Impacts .............................................................. 9 1.1.9. Seamless Climate, Water, and Weather Information ........................................................... 9 1.1.10. Improve Communications and Dissemination through Partnerships ................................. 10 1.2. Impact-Based Decision Support Services ................................................................................... 10 1.2.1. IDSS Operations Concept ................................................................................................... 12 1.2.2. Key Activities to Evolve IDSS ........................................................................................... 18 1.3. Common Operating Picture (COP) ............................................................................................. 19 1.3.1. Quantification and Communication of Forecast Confidence ............................................. 20 1.3.2. Activities to Evolve the Forecast Process ........................................................................... 20 1.4. Integrated Environmental Services ............................................................................................. 21 1.4.1. Water .................................................................................................................................. 21 1.4.2. Climate Services ................................................................................................................. 24 1.4.3. Ecological Forecasting ....................................................................................................... 26 1.4.4. Activities to Expand and Integrate Environmental Services .............................................. 27 1.5. Emerging and Collaborative Service Sectors .............................................................................. 28 1.5.1. The Arctic ........................................................................................................................... 28 1.5.2. Space Weather .................................................................................................................... 29 1.5.3. Aviation and Traffic Flow Management ............................................................................ 30 1.5.4. Weather Impacts on Mobility and Productivity ................................................................. 31 1.5.5. Renewable Energy .............................................................................................................. 32 1.5.6. Public Health ...................................................................................................................... 32 2. Workforce Evolution Plan ................................................................................................................. 34 2.1. Workforce Concepts ................................................................................................................... 34 2.2. Staffing Profiles .......................................................................................................................... 35 2.2.1. Expertise Required to Provide IDSS .................................................................................. 35 2.3. Training ....................................................................................................................................... 36 2.3.1. Training Components of IDSS ........................................................................................... 37 2.3.2. External Education and Outreach ....................................................................................... 39 2.3.3. Communications Strategies ................................................................................................ 40 2.4. Recruitment and Diversity of the Workforce .............................................................................. 41 2.4.1. Diversity of Disciplines ...................................................................................................... 42 Table of Contents Page ii WRN Roadmap VERSION 2.0 - April 2013 NWS WRN Roadmap 2.4.2. Recruitment and Retention ................................................................................................. 43 2.4.3. On Boarding and Training Personnel ................................................................................. 44 2.4.4. Succession Planning ........................................................................................................... 44 2.5. Evaluation of Personnel .............................................................................................................. 45 2.5.1. Goal-Setting and Follow-up ............................................................................................... 45 2.6. Co-location of Facilities .............................................................................................................. 45 3. Science and Technology (S&T) Plan ................................................................................................. 48 3.1. S&T Concepts ............................................................................................................................. 49 3.1.1. Comprehensive Situational Knowledge ............................................................................. 49 3.1.2. Forecaster Decision Support Environment (FDSE) ........................................................... 52 3.1.3. Improved Earth System Predictive Guidance ..................................................................... 54 3.1.4. Expand and Optimize Use of Probabilistic Forecast Guidance .......................................... 55 3.1.5. Agile, Scalable, Cost-Effective Data Processing and Dissemination ................................. 57 3.1.6. Symbiotic Research to Operations and Operations to Research ........................................ 58 3.1.7. Pilot Projects, Test Beds, Proving Ground, and Simulation Training ................................ 60 3.2 Priorities for S&T Development ................................................................................................ 61 3.2.1 Comprehensive Situational Knowledge, Earth System Predictive Guidance and Forecast Confidence .......................................................................................................................... 61 3.2.2 Forecaster Decision Support Environment ......................................................................... 62 3.2.3 Data Processing, Management, and Dissemination ............................................................ 62 4. Business Plan....................................................................................................................................... 65 4.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 65 4.2. Current Business Strategy and Model ......................................................................................... 65 4.2.1. Facilities ............................................................................................................................. 66 4.2.2. Observational Infrastructure and Programs ........................................................................ 66 4.2.3. Science and Technology Infrastructure .............................................................................. 67 4.2.4. Research to Operations and Operations to Research (R2O and O2R) ............................... 67 4.3. Current Business Model Gaps..................................................................................................... 67 4.4. New Business Model .................................................................................................................. 68 4.5. Sustainability ..............................................................................................................................
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