Part 2 of THE YEAR IN REVIEW pages 5-12 THEPublished U by theKRAINIAN Ukrainian National Association Inc., a fraternal W non-profit associationEEKLY Vol. LXXXIV No. 4 THE UKRAINIAN WEEKLY SUNDAY, JANUARY 24, 2016 $2.00 Poroshenko has 25% support, Proposals to resolve armed conflict 70% disapproval, poll reveals in Donbas fail to impress experts by Zenon Zawada Indeed Mr. Poroshenko is widely report- ed to be leading the work to prepare the KYIV – Top U.S. and Russian officials conditions for local elections in occupied were literally brainstorming on new ways Donbas. He is also working to cobble togeth- to resolve the armed conflict in Donbas on er 300 votes (out of 450) in Parliament to January 15, as described by Russian presi- approve constitutional amendments, among dential aide Vladislav Surkov. them a clause that establishes the legal A solution has yet to emerge from the basis to establish “specific procedures for meeting in Kaliningrad between Mr. Surkov self-governance” in the Donbas region. and U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Once the constitutional amendment cre- Nuland, the details of which were not made ating the specific procedures is approved, public. Instead, other creative proposals all that’s required is a simple majority of have surfaced in recent weeks to solve the 226 votes in the Verkhovna Rada to conflict, including the Organization for approve the corresponding law that estab- Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) lishes its legal framework. taking control of the Ukrainian side of the Commonly referred to as the “Donbas occupied border, as well as the United special status,” and widely regarded as de Nations dispatching humanitarian missions facto autonomy, the framework in the occu- Presidential Administration of Ukraine and possibly peacekeepers. pied Donbas would provide amnesty to President Petro Poroshenko on January 11 with soldiers of an artillery brigade dur- They haven’t made Ukrainian political most of the Russian-backed terrorists and ing a working visit to Ternopil. Seventy percent of Ukrainians polled disapprove of experts any more optimistic. Ukrainian enable them to occupy law enforcement his government’s handling of the war in the Donbas. President Petro Poroshenko has yet to pro- posts. pose to the Europeans an alternative to the Local authorities could also form eco- ishment is very apparent, particularly in by Zenon Zawada current plan, which involves local elections nomic agreements with their counterparts the form of inflation,” Mr. Oleshchuk said. in occupied Donbas, followed by de facto KYIV – About 25 percent of Ukrainians in neighboring Russia, all the while receiv- Only 11 percent of Ukrainians approve of autonomy, said Oles Doniy, the head of the approve of the job President Petro ing subsidies from Kyiv. Meanwhile, elected the Verkhovna Rada’s work, compared to 83 Center for Political Values Research in Kyiv. Poroshenko is doing, while about 70 per- officials can’t be removed before their percent who disapprove, which is nothing “OSCE control of the border is not cent disapprove of his performance, partic- terms are up. new, said Mykhailo Basarab, a Kyiv political important and how the elections are held ularly his administration’s handling of the The law’s many critics believe it’s these consultant. “Parliament has always been the and who will control the border is irrele- war in the Donbas. As president, he’s the conditions that will enable the Donbas most unpopular body, ever since the days of vant,” he said. “The main issue is holding commander-in-chief of the military and has leadership to foment conflict with Kyiv and [President Leonid] Kuchma,” he said. the elections, which will enable amnesty led the negotiations with foreign leaders to stir further internal strife within Ukraine, The poll revealed that pro-Western par- and put the terrorists in charge of the resolve the conflict. serving the Kremlin’s ultimate aim of ties either somewhat or entirely hostile to police, prosecution and the courts. Merely “He has quite strong support, particular- breaking the country up further. Mr. Poroshenko’s policies would gain seats fulfilling the elections will put an end to ly when compared with [Prime Minister in Parliament if elections were held in the unitary Ukraine.” (Continued on page 22) Arseniy] Yatsenyuk,” said Petro Oleshchuk, nearest future. a political science lecturer at Taras The Poroshenko Bloc would finish first Shevchenko National University in Kyiv. with 15 percent. The Batkivshchyna and “The public is banking on Poroshenko to Samopomich parties, which are part of the EU document refl ects concerns resolve this war and his rating reflects cer- current coalition but have opposed the pres- tain hopes and expectations. I would even ident on key issues such as special status for say that they’re a down payment.” the Donbas, would gain 21 percent together. about pace of reforms in Ukraine The poll, released on January 12, was Three pro-Western parties utterly hos- by Rikard Jozwiak The paper suggests that the establish- conducted by Rating Group Ukraine tile to the president – Oleh Liashko’s ment of a vice prime minister for RFE/RL between November 19 and 30, 2015, in Radical Party, Svoboda and Ukrop – would European integration could foster the cooperation with the International gain 16 percent support collectively. BRUSSELS – Kyiv has touted the prom- creation of a “transparent and effective Republican Institute’s Center for Insights in “Growing attitudes in opposition to the ise of a visa-free regime for Ukrainians coordination structure for reforms.” Survey Research and was financed by government are radicalizing into various traveling to the European Union as evi- The document acknowledges that Global Affairs Canada. ideological niches. The next Parliament dence of its success in carrying out substantial progress has been made as As low as 25 percent may be, the presi- would have far more conflicts than the cur- reforms, but behind the scenes several regards the passage of new laws but dent’s support exceeds that of other state rent one,” said Mr. Basarab, pointing out that key European Union member states are highlights the many problems still facing bodies, such as the Cabinet of Ministers this session has already had its fair share of bemoaning the country’s slow progress the country. and Parliament. fistfights and blockades of the podium. of implementation and lack of engage- “In some areas the actual implementa- Only 12 percent of Ukrainians approve of The Russian-oriented Opposition Bloc, a ment both with its citizens and with tion of reforms lags behind and is ham- the Cabinet’s work led by Mr. Yatsenyuk, com- potential ally to the Poroshenko Bloc because Brussels. pered by vested interests and lack of pared to 82 percent who disapprove. The rat- it also supports the establishment of the A discussion paper supported by nine capacity,” the paper said. “The complex ings of the Cabinet, which is responsible for Donbas special status, would finish in second EU member states and seen by RFE/RL processes of change and perceived lack domestic affairs, largely reflect the deteriorat- at 12 percent. The People’s Front, led by Mr. declares that the government and of tangible results create disappointment ing economic conditions in Ukraine, which Yatsenyuk, would not qualify for Parliament. Parliament in Kyiv “urgently need to and frustration among Ukrainians.” is undergoing an economic depression in Mr. Poroshenko is only the fourth most respond to public demands and reinforce The document is backed by EU heavy- which GDP is expected by the World Bank popular politician in Ukraine, with 27 per- their efforts to adopt and implement weights Germany and the United to have plunged 12 percent this year. cent of poll respondents viewing him favor- effective reforms, in particular in the area “The Cabinet’s reforms aren’t very of anti-corruption.” (Continued on page 18) apparent to the public, but their impover- (Continued on page 13) 2 THE UKRAINIAN WEEKLY SUNDAY, JANUARY 24, 2016 No. 4 ANALYSIS Russia’s National Security Strategy Poroshenko on restoring control over east war between Kyiv’s forces and Russia- backed separatists in eastern Ukraine. In a KYIV – Ukrainian President Petro statement earlier in the day, Mr. Kirby said denotes U.S. and NATO as threats Poroshenko has vowed to regain sovereign- the meeting was part of “our continued were clear signals concerning the tone to ty over separatist-held areas in the coun- efforts to work with Russia to ensure full by Roger McDermott try’s east in 2016. “Ukrainian sovereignty Eurasia Daily Monitor be framed within the 2015 Russian NSS implementation of the Minsk agreements, (Rossiyskaya Gazeta, December 22, 2015). over the occupied territories of Donetsk in close coordination with the other Russia’s new National Security Strategy Mr. Patrushev further justified the underly- and Luhansk regions must be restored,” Mr. Normandy powers – Ukraine, Germany and (NSS), signed into law by President Vladimir ing need to revise the NSS: “This is due to Poroshenko told journalists on January 14. France.” The AFP news agency cited an Putin on December 31, 2015, marks the cul- the emergence of new military dangers and He added that securing Crimea’s return unidentified source familiar with the mat- mination of a long process in deteriorating threats. These manifestations can be seen from Russian control was a priority, saying ter as saying that the meeting was held on relations between Moscow and Washington in the events of the ‘Arab Spring’ in Syria “de-occupation” of the peninsula that was Russian territory because Mr. Surkov, wide- and in how the Russian security elite per- and Iraq, the situation in Ukraine and annexed by Russia in March 2014 must be ly credited as the mastermind behind ceives the North Atlantic Treaty around it.