Wild Harbor Seal (Phoca Vitulina) Population Dynamics and Survival in Northern California
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WILD HARBOR SEAL (PHOCA VITULINA) POPULATION DYNAMICS AND SURVIVAL IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA A thesis submitted to the faculty of Moss Landing Marine Laboratories San Francisco State University In partial fulfillment of The Requirements for The Degree Master of Science In Marine Science by Suzanne Camille Manugian San Francisco, California December 2013 Copyright by Suzanne Camille Manugian 2013 CERTIFICATION OF APPROVAL I certify that I have read Wild harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) population dynamics and survival in northern California by Suzanne Camille Manugian, and that in my opinion this work meets the criteria for approving a thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree: Master of Science in Marine Science at San Francisco State University. ________________________________________________ James T. Harvey Director, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories ________________________________________________ Ellen Hines Professor, Department of Geography and Environment ________________________________________________ Benjamin Becker Director and Marine Ecologist, Pacific Coast Science and Learning Center WILD HARBOR SEAL (PHOCA VITULINA) POPULATION DYNAMICS AND SURVIVAL IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA Suzanne Camille Manugian San Francisco, California 2013 Pacific harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) within San Francisco Bay (SFB) have been described as stable compared with those in coastal northern California, like Tomales Bay (TB). Historical data (1970s – early 2000s) indicated an overall increase in adults and pup production. Recent data, however, revealed SFB and TB adult counts decreased while pup production increased. There is a paucity of life history data, such as survival rates, for northern California harbor seals. For 32 radio-tagged adult females, survival was 98.2% over 20 months 2011 through 2013, constant between bays and influenced by an individual’s axillary girth. Movement between bays supported this survival estimate. Lower resight probability in SFB compared with TB was likely due to multiple factors including sampling bias and haulout quality and area. These are the first adult/subadult survival and resight estimates for harbor seals in California, and suggest the stable SFB population is due to some reason other than poor adult female survival (e.g. emigration, poor pup survival). I certify that the Abstract is a correct representation of the content of this thesis. ____________________________________________ __________________ Chair, Thesis Committee Date ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my thesis committee, Jim Harvey, Ellen Hines, and Ben Becker for assistance and guidance throughout my MLML career. I’d also like to extend a special thank you to unofficial committee members Denise Greig, Sarah Allen, and Frances Gulland for always being in my corner and selflessly offering advice and support throughout this long journey. Thanks to The Marine Mammal Center (TMMC) for surgical support: Bill Van Bonn and Vanessa Fravel for surgeries, Lauren Campbell and Erin Brodie for veterinary tech support, Matt Hoard for all things USDA pool-related, and a tremendous number of volunteers for care and release of pilot study animals. An army of volunteers helped out with seal captures and sample collection, and the students, faculty, and staff at MLML helped make it all possible. A special thanks goes to Stephanie Hughes, Liz McHuron, Deasy Lontoh, Tenaya Norris, Scott Hansen, Alex Olson, Sean Hayes, Greg Frankfurter, Patrick Flanagan, and my VELers (both past and current). Aerial tracking for this study was graciously donated by K. Harmon, who both flew and looked for seals with me: without you this could not have been a success. Joe Merz (Cramer Fish Sciences) and B. Van Wagenen (Ecoscan Resources) also provided sage tracking advice and several survey flights. Additional funding was provided by The Marine Mammal Center, the Student Packard Fund, and the San Francisco State University travel fund. This project would not have been possible without support from the National Parks Service, Don Edwards National Wildlife Refuge, MLML, Kathy Hieb, and the CDFG San Francisco Bay Study and the Interagency Ecological Program for the San Francisco Estuary. Lastly, I am eternally grateful for the unconditional love, encouragement, and support from my amazing folks and wonderful friends. To those who are always jokingly asking “What’s taking so long?” I now have a response: “I’ve reached the finish line!” v TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables ……..….……..….……..….……..….……..….……..…..….……..... vii List of Figures ……..…..….……..….……..….……..….……..….….…….….....… viii List of Appendices ……..…..….……..….……..….……..….………….………..… xii Introduction ………..….……..….……..………..……..….……..………….……… 1 Hypotheses …..…..….……..…………..….……..…………..….….…….… 11 Methods …..……..….……..….……..….……..….……..….……...….……..…….. 13 Results …………..….……..….……..….……..….……..….…….……..….….…… 22 Discussion ………..….……..….……..….……..….……..….…..….……...…...…. 26 Conclusions …………………………………………………………....….... 39 Literature Cited …………..…..….……..…….……..……..….….……..…….……. 41 Appendix 1 …………..….……..….….……..….….…….…..….……..…………… 90 Appendix 2 …………………………………………………………………………. 92 Appendix 3 …………………………………………………………………………. 93 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. 16 original survival and recapture models in MARK, with description …...……… 57 2. 40 new survival and recapture models in MARK with covariates, built off 16 original models (Table1), with description ………………………………………....… 58 - 60 3. Models built to examine tag effects over August 2011 – March 2013 by varying time frames. Monthly, biology, and seasonal effects examined ……...….……….…..... 61 4. Selection table for survival (Φ) and recapture (p) probability models. Time is recorded in monthly intervals, site is either SFB or TB. No individual covariates are included. No ^c adjustments made …….…………….………………………....…. 62 5. Selection table for survival (Φ) and recapture (p) probability models. Time is recorded in monthly intervals, site is either SFB or TB. Individual covariates are included. No ^c adjustments made ………………………….………………….…………..… 63 6. Real survival (Φ) and recapture (p) parameter estimate values from model 1 (Table 5): Φ (ax girth) p (site). Standard Error (SE) and 95% confidence intervals (LCL and UCL) also reported ……………………………………………………………….. 64 7. 27 resighted harbor seals. Animals with + indicate inclusion in Φ/p estimates. Total time: months to last resight occasion. Animals with * indicate > 15 months until first resight. Minimum total distance: reasonable travel pattern for harbor seals…..…. 65 8. Mean minimum total distance traveled (miles) ± standard error (SE) for subadult and adult harbor seals tagged in SFB and TB. Values pooled and averaged from minimum total travel distance values for each seal (from Table 7) …………………..……... 66 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Northern California study area: tagging haulouts and additional aerial and ground resight locations. Circles denote tagging and surveyed haulout sites, stars denote surveyed haulout sites, triangles denote CDFW trawl stations (station number in parentheses) ……………………………………………………………………..... 67 2. Telonics IMP/300/L implantable radio tag (23mm x 81mm; 40g; Paraplast® wax coating …………………………………………………………………………… 68 3. Maximum counts of adult harbor seals, by month, in SFB (Castro Rocks, Yerba Buena Island, and Newark and Mowry Sloughs) during pupping (March through May) and Molt (June and July) from 2008 to 2012. ……………………………………..… 69 4. Maximum counts of adult harbor seals, by month, in TB during pupping (March through May) and molt (June and July) from 2008 to 2012. ………….………… 70 5. Mean maximum counts of adult harbor seals in SFB (Castro Rocks, Yerba Buena Island, and Newark and Mowry Sloughs) and TB by year during pupping (March through May) and molt (June and July) from 2008 to 2012. The red rectangle denotes time-frame of the survival implant tagging study. …………………...….……… 71 6. Relationship of LN of maximum count to year (2008 to 2012) for adult harbor seals in SFB (Castro Rocks, Yerba Buena Island, and Newark and Mowry Sloughs, P = 0.29) and TB (P = 0.23) from March through July. The red rectangle denotes time-frame of the survival implant tagging study. …………………………………………… 72 7. Relationship of proportion of pups to year (2008 to 2012) in SFB (Castro Rocks, Yerba Buena Island, and Newark and Mowry Sloughs, P = 0.15) and TB (P = 0.34). The red rectangle denotes time-frame of the survival implant tagging study…… 73 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 8. Total adult harbor seal counts (lines; black denotes CR, gray denotes YBI) and percentage of adult females (circle denotes CR, triangle denotes YBI) during molt May to August 2013. ……...……………...……………...……...……....…….… 74 9A. Movement pattern for seal 360: resighted 6 times, alive 30 months. Lines represent hypothetical trips between haulouts numbered in chronological order and duration between resights annotated in parentheses (months). The animal was tagged at Elkhorn Slough. …………………………………………………..…….…….… 75 9B. Movement pattern for seal 920: resighted 6 times, alive 19 months. Lines represent hypothetical trips between haulouts numbered in chronological order and duration between resights annotated in parentheses (months). The animal was tagged at Tomales Bay.………………………………………………………...……….… 76 9C. Movement pattern for seal 960: resighted 20 times, alive 21 months. The animal was tagged at Tomales Bay and never resighted at another haulout, remaining there at least 21 months (when surveys were completed)..…………….….....……….…