Nuclear Capability, Bargaining Power, and Conflict by Thomas M. Lafleur
Nuclear capability, bargaining power, and conflict by Thomas M. LaFleur B.A., University of Washington, 1992 M.A., University of Washington, 2003 M.M.A.S., United States Army Command and General Staff College, 2004 M.M.A.S., United States Army Command and General Staff College, 2005 AN ABSTRACT OF A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Security Studies KANSAS STATE UNIVERSITY Manhattan, Kansas 2019 Abstract Traditionally, nuclear weapons status enjoyed by nuclear powers was assumed to provide a clear advantage during crisis. However, state-level nuclear capability has previously only included nuclear weapons, limiting this application to a handful of states. Current scholarship lacks a detailed examination of state-level nuclear capability to determine if greater nuclear capabilities lead to conflict success. Ignoring other nuclear capabilities that a state may possess, capabilities that could lead to nuclear weapons development, fails to account for the potential to develop nuclear weapons in the event of bargaining failure and war. In other words, I argue that nuclear capability is more than the possession of nuclear weapons, and that other nuclear technologies such as research and development and nuclear power production must be incorporated in empirical measures of state-level nuclear capabilities. I hypothesize that states with greater nuclear capability hold additional bargaining power in international crises and argue that empirical tests of the effectiveness of nuclear power on crisis bargaining must account for all state-level nuclear capabilities. This study introduces the Nuclear Capabilities Index (NCI), a six-component scale that denotes nuclear capability at the state level.
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