Bond Implied Risks Around Macroeconomic Announcements * Xinyang Li† Abstract Using a large panel of Treasury futures and options, I construct model-free measures of bond uncertainty and tail risk across different tenors, showing that bond tail risk works as a good indicator for recessions since it remains moderate during normal times and suddenly enlarges before financial crises. Besides the term structure and cyclicality of bond implied risks, I document three novel findings regarding their movement around announcements by the US Federal Reserve: First, measures of stock and bond uncertainty increase two days prior to the announcements and revert back upon release. Second, the pre-FOMC announcement drift also prevails in Treasury bonds, such that yields of the 5, 10 and 30 years shrink 1 bp on the day before the announcement. Third, variation in uncertainty predicts the positive stock return and bond yield change, but its jump prior to the FOMC meeting has an offsetting impact. Nevertheless, neither the global positive nor the local negative effect is large enough to fully explain the pre-FOMC announcement drift. Keywords: Treasury implied risks, Monetary policy, Pre-FOMC announcement drift JEL Classification: E52, G12, G14 This Version: August 2020 *All errors are mine. †Questrom School of Business, Boston University, Email: fi
[email protected]. The recent disruptions in global financial markets in Spring 2020 are a stark reminder of the significant uncertainty faced by investors after the default of Lehman Brothers in 2008. Option markets are particularly suited to gauge such manifestations of uncertainty because they capture market participants’ future expectations. Particular attention is paid to the so-called VIX index, an implied-volatility index calculated from S&P500 options, which climbed to new heights in March 2020.