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Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State Or Federal Prison

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Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State Or Federal Prison U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs Bureau of Justice Statistics Special Report March 1997, NCJ-160092 Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison By Thomas P. Bonczar and Allen J. Beck, Ph.D. Highlights BJS Statisticians Percentage of U.S. males likely to ever go to prison, based on constant 1991 rates of first incarceration, An estimated 5.1% of all persons in by age, race, and Hispanic origin the United States will be confined in a Cumulative percent of males incarcerated State or Federal prison during their 30% lifetime, if incarceration rates recorded Black 28.5% in 1991 remain unchanged in the fu- ture. The lifetime chances of a person going to prison are higher for men 20% (9.0%) than for women (1.1%) and Hispanic 16.0% higher for blacks (16.2%) and Hispan- ics (9.4%) than for whites (2.5%). At 10% All males current levels of incarceration a black 9.0% male in the United States today has White greater than a 1 in 4 chance of going 4.4% to prison during his lifetime, while a Hispanic male has a 1 in 6 chance and 0% a white male has a 1 in 23 chance of 13 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age at first admission serving time. If recent incarceration rates remain The chance of going to prison for The lifetime likelihood of incarceration, unchanged, an estimated 1 of every the first time declines with age the focus of this study, represents the 20 persons (5.1%) will serve time in Chance of going a prison during their lifetime. to prison during percentage of all U.S. residents ex- Not yet rest of life pected to be incarcerated in a prison at Men (9.0%) are over 8 times more incarcerated All White Black some time in life. Such a measure is likely than women (1.1%) to be in- by age persons men men Birth 5.1% 4.4% 28.5% hypothetical based on the assump- carcerated in prison at least once 20 4.5 4.1 25.3 tion that recent rates of incarceration during their life. 25 3.1 3.0 17.3 (and death rates) will not change in the 30 2.1 2.1 10.8 Among men, blacks (28.5%) are future. Unlike a standard incarceration 35 1.4 1.5 6.5 about twice as likely as Hispanics 40 .9 1.1 3.6 rate, which expresses the prevalence (16.0%) and 6 times more likely than 45 .6 .8 2.1 of incarceration on a single day, the whites (4.4%) to be admitted to lifetime likelihood measure summa- prison during their life. Nearly two-thirds of those admitted rizes the chances of a person being to prison for the first time will have incarcerated at some time over an Among women, 3.6% of blacks, been on probation and a third will entire lifetime. 1.5% of Hispanics, and 0.5% of have served a sentence to a local whites will enter prison at least once. jail or juvenile facility. Summarizing life experiences lifetime rates to express statistics The chances of going to prison, based on annual rates about familiar life events: by sex, race, and Hispanic origin Estimates of the lifetime likelihood 5 out of 6 persons are expected to Life table procedures have been re- of going to prison are derived from be a victim of an attempted or com- peated for males and females, whites, standard life table techniques used pleted violent crime (rape, robbery, blacks, and Hispanics subgroups by demographers and actuaries to and assault, excluding murder) at with different rates of death and first summarize observed rates and to least once during life, based on incarceration. Estimates coming from project them into the future. When 1975-84 annual victimization rates. these procedures summarize the com- applied to the study of the U.S. prison (See Lifetime Likelihood of Victimiza- bined impact of the differential rates. population, the lifetime estimates rep- tion, BJS, NCJ-10427, March 1987.) resent the combined experience of Overall, an estimated 5.1% of all per- first admission to prison and mortality 1 of every 100 men and of every sons in the United States will serve by age of the U.S. resident population 323 women are expected to be a vic- time in a State or Federal prison during during a 12-month period. tim of murder, based on 1978-80 an- their lifetime, if recent rates of first in- nual murder rates and lifetime carceration and mortality remain un- The estimates do not reflect the expe- probabilities. (See Crime in the changed (table 1). rience of any actual group but rather United States, 1981, FBI.) of a hypothetical group that is subject Men are over 8 times more likely than to a fixed set of age-specific rates of 49.6% of all new marriages are women to be incarcerated in prison at first incarceration and mortality. As expected to end in divorce, based least once during their lifetime. A male such, the estimates depict the pro- on marriage and divorce statistics has a 9.0% (or 1 in 11) chance in his jected mortality and incarceration ex- for 1976-77. (See National Estimates lifetime of going to prison, while a fe- perience of newborn U.S. residents, of Marriage Dissolution and Survivor - male has a 1.1% (or 1 in 91) chance. assuming that the mortality and incar- ship: United States, National Center ceration rates observed during a for Health Statistics, November Blacks in the U.S. resident population 12-month period remain unchanged in 1980.) (16.2%), regardless of their sex, are the future. ( See Methodology, page nearly twice as likely as Hispanics 8.) 1 of every 8 American women are (9.4%) and 6 times more likely than projected to develop breast cancer whites (2.5%) to be admitted to prison Life table techniques have been ap- in their lifetime, if 1987-88 rates re- during their lives. plied in numerous fields to summarize main unchanged. (See The Lifetime the likelihood that an event may oc- Risk of Developing Breast Cancer, Among men, more than 1 in 4 blacks cur. The following four examples use Journal of the National Cancer Insti- and 1 in 6 Hispanics, compared to 1 in tute, June 1993.) 23 whites, will enter prison at least once if current first-incarceration rates Table 1. Chances of going to State or Federal prison for the first time, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin Cumulative percent of resident population expected to go to State or Federal prison for the first time, by age 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 65 Lifetime Total 1.1% 2.4% 3.3% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.1% Sex Male 2.0% 4.3% 5.9% 7.0% 7.8% 8.2% 8.5% 8.7% 9.0% 9.0% Female .1 .3 .6 .8 .9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 Race/Hispanic origin White* .4% 0.9% 1.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% Male .7 1.7 2.5 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 Female 0 .2 .3 .4 .4 .5 .5 .5 .5 .5 Black* 4.1% 8.4% 11.6% 13.6% 14.9% 15.4% 15.7% 15.8% 16.0% 16.2% Male 7.9 15.9 21.4 24.6 26.6 27.4 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 Female .3 1.1 2.0 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 Hispanic 1.5% 3.6% 5.2% 6.3% 7.5% 8.2% 8.8% 9.1% 9.4% 9.4% Male 2.8 6.3 8.8 10.7 12.7 13.9 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.0 Female .1 .4 .7 .9 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 Note: The cumulative percents represent the chances of being incarceration rates and mortality rates for each group to a hypo- admitted to State or Federal prison for the first time, by age. Estimates thetical population of 100,000 births. (See Methodology, page 8.) were obtained by sequentially applying age-specific first- *Excludes persons of Hispanic origin. 2 Lifetime Likelihood of Going to State or Federal Prison do not change. An estimated 28.5% by the time they are 30; and 4.4% The chances of going to prison of black men, 16.0% of Hispanic men, by the time they are 40. decline with advancing age and 4.4% of white men are expected to serve a State or Federal prison At every age, men have higher The life table calculations also provide sentence. chances of going to prison than estimates of the likelihood of going to women, and blacks and Hispanics prison at some time during the rest of In general, women have lower lifetime have higher chances than whites. life among persons not previously chances of incarceration than men; Based on current rates of first incar- however, black women (3.6%) have ceration, an estimated 7.9% of black Why lifetime estimates exclude nearly the same chance as white men males will enter State or Federal prison admissions to local jails (4.4%) of serving time in prison. by the time they are age 20, compared Among women, blacks are more than to 2.8% of Hispanic males and 0.7% of Jails are locally operated correctional twice as likely as Hispanics (1.5%) and white males.
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