An Analysis of Changes in the Long Term Characteristics of River Flows in the Munster Blackwater Catchment
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An Analysis of Changes in the Long Term Characteristics of River Flows in the Munster Blackwater Catchment Oliver Nicholson Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the Master of Literature Degree, Faculty of Social Sciences Department Of Geography National University of Ireland, Maynooth June 2012 Head of Department: Professor Mark Boyle Supervisor: Dr. Conor Murphy This research was funded by the Office of Public Works ii I dedicate this thesis to my little family iii Acknowledgements I would like to take this opportunity to extend my thanks to the people who gave their support and assistance in completing this thesis. I wish to acknowledge the huge help provided by my project supervisor, Dr. Conor Murphy. His clear, concise and focused input helped to constantly keep this thesis on track. It is always reassuring to know that you have somebody fighting your corner for you in the background. I would also like to thank the Office of Public Works for funding this research, and for providing the encouragement to continuously improve my engineering and hydrological knowledge. I would also like to thank Mairéad Treanor of Met Éireann for her efforts searching for, and retrieving the archived Met Éireann charts. My Parents deserve appreciation for providing support, both moral and financial in my formal education so many years ago. Last but not least I would like to thank Irene Nicholson for the encouragement to undertake this research and for the ongoing support once it was underway. She also deserves recognition for taking on the roles of both Father and Mother to Patrick and Brendan during the final six months of this thesis. iv Abstract This project is an analysis of the changing characteristics of river flows in the Munster Blackwater catchment. The portion of the Blackwater catchment above the river flow gauge at Kilavullen was the focus of this study. This is amongst the oldest continuous flow stations in the country with continuous flow data available from 1955 to the present day. Indeed, it can be said that prior to the 1950’s Ireland did not possess a formal continuous flow gauging network, which inhibits the examination of long term trends in Irish river flows. To examine the long-term characteristics of flow at the Kilavullen gauge, the 54 years of flow data that are available are insufficient and a method of extending the flow record at the site was required. Fortunately, organised precipitation and temperature measurements in Ireland date back further than their river flow counterparts. Within this study digital and historical paper based precipitation and temperature records from Met Éireann were compiled for the area in and around the Kilavullen catchment extending back to 1926. This data was quality controlled and where necessary was used to synthesise historical values of potential evapotranspiration before making it fit for purpose for hydrological modelling. This historical data was then used as inputs to the HYSIM and IHACRES lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models and used to reconstruct flows (hindcast) at the Kilavullen gauge from 1926 to 2009. This hindcast effectively extended the record at Kilavullen from 54 to 84 years (representing a 55% increase in the period of record). Rather than relying blindly on the rainfall-runoff modelling to reconstruct historic flows, a database of historic floods in the catchment was used to validate the hindcasted flows. Tests for gradual trend in the data show statistically significant persistent positive trends in Annual temperatures, rainfall and flows within the catchment. Evidence of trend in spring flows was found to be the overall driving factor of trends in annual flows. Overall results of the trend analysis on the reconstructed flows general shows that in over the last 84 years, floods in winter months are becoming more common, and that floods in summer months are less evident. v Table of Contents LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... X LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................... XIII 1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................... 1 1.2 AIMS OF THE STUDY .............................................................................................. 1 1.3 THESIS STRUCTURE ............................................................................................... 3 1.3.1 CHAPTER 2 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.3.2 CHAPTER 3 ............................................................................................................ 3 1.3.3 CHAPTER 4 ............................................................................................................ 4 1.3.4 CHAPTER 5 ............................................................................................................ 4 1.3.5 CHAPTER 6 ............................................................................................................ 4 1.3.6 CHAPTER 7 ............................................................................................................ 4 2 LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................... 5 2.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 5 2.2 EVIDENCE OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ............................................................ 5 2.3 EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN IRELAND FROM OBSERVED DATA ................. 6 2.4 FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR IRELAND .................................. 7 2.5 STUDIES OF TRENDS IN OBSERVED RIVER FLOW DATA ........................................ 8 2.6 PROJECTED FUTURE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RIVER FLOWS IN IRELAND .......................................................................................................................... 10 2.7 OBSTACLES TO THE DETECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN OBSERVED FLOW RECORDS ......................................................................................................................... 12 2.8 USE OF CONCEPTUAL RAINFALL -RUNOFF MODELS IN HINDCASTING RIVER FLOWS 17 2.9 USE OF HISTORICAL METEOROLOGICAL DATA TO HINDCAST RIVER FLOWS ...... 19 2.10 THE FIELD OF HISTORICAL HYDROLOGY ............................................................ 20 2.11 FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................... 22 2.12 SUMMARY OF BEST PRACTICE FOR RECONSTRUCTING RIVER FLOWS AND DETECTION OF TRENDS IN FLOOD DATA IDENTIFIED IN THE LITERATURE REVIEW ........ 23 2.13 CONCLUSIONS ..................................................................................................... 24 3 DESCRIPTION OF CATCHMENT AND DATA COLLECTION .................... 25 3.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 25 3.2 CHOICE OF STUDY CATCHMENT .......................................................................... 25 3.3 CATCHMENT LOCATION ...................................................................................... 26 3.4 TOPOGRAPHY AND RIVER NETWORK IN THE KILAVULLEN CATCHMENT . ............. 26 3.5 SOIL AND SUBSOIL DESCRIPTION ........................................................................ 28 3.6 LAND USE WITHIN THE CATCHMENT ................................................................... 30 3.7 CLIMATE ............................................................................................................. 31 3.8 DESCRIPTION OF THE KILAVULLEN GAUGE ......................................................... 32 3.9 SUMMARY OF CATCHMENT DESCRIPTORS .......................................................... 33 3.10 DATA COLLECTION FOR USE IN HYDROLOGICAL MODELS .................................. 34 3.11 COLLECTION OF RAINFALL DATA ....................................................................... 34 3.11.1 MONTHLY RAINFALL DATA FROM 1899-1920 AT MALLOW – FROM NEWSPAPER RECORDS 36 vi 3.11.2 RAINFALL DATA FROM 1926-1940 – FROM IRISH RAINFALL ASSOCIATION AND MET ÉIREANN PAPER CHARTS .......................................................................................... 38 3.11.3 DIGITAL MET ÉIREANN RAINFALL DATA ............................................................ 40 3.12 COLLECTION OF TEMPERATURE DATA ................................................................ 41 3.12.1 PAPER RECORDS OF TEMPERATURE DATA ......................................................... 42 3.12.2 DIGITAL MET ÉIREANN TEMPERATURE DATA .................................................... 43 3.13 COLLECTION OF POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (P.E.) DATA ...................... 43 3.13.1 MET ÉIREANN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION RECORDS ............................... 43 3.14 COLLECTION OF DAILY MEAN FLOW DATA ........................................................ 44 3.14.1 DAILY MEAN FLOW DATA FROM THE OFFICE OF PUBLIC WORKS AND THE EPA. 44 3.15 COLLECTION OF HISTORICAL FLOOD DATA ........................................................ 45 3.15.1 NEWSPAPER RECORDS ...................................................................................... 45 3.15.2 FLOODMAPS .IE DATABASE ...............................................................................