Oxford Strategic Growth Options High Level Review of Opportunities Pro
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Oxford Strategic Growth Options High Level Review of Opportunities Pro-forma Analysis October 2014 Contents 1. Introduction 1 2. Previous Work 5 3. Context for a Green Belt Review 7 4. Exceptional Circumstances to warrant a Green Belt Review 14 5. Review of Areas for Growth 18 6. Pro-forma Analysis 20 7. Summary and Conclusions 38 Appendix 1: Strategic Landscape, Heritage, and Visual Impact Appraisal Appendix 2: Community Infrastructure Plans 1 - 6 Appendix 3: Transport Overview and Assessment of Site Options Appendix 4: Constraints Atlas Contact Graeme Warriner [email protected] Client Oxford City Council LPA reference October 2014 1. Introduction 1.1 Oxford is an international city, which is successful, vibrant, and a national economic asset. It is at the centre of the world-class knowledge economy of Oxford and Oxfordshire, with one of the most important concentrations of high-value businesses in Europe. However, a severe lack of housing availability, choice and affordability is creating a deepening housing crisis in Oxford, which is significantly undermining its future. 1.2 Oxford has overtaken London as the least affordable city to live in across the UK. Oxford average house prices are over 11 times the gross annual earnings in the City.1 This means there is already severe pressures on the City’s housing stock. 6.2% of households in Oxford are classed as overcrowded, compared with an Oxfordshire average of 3.3%2. The affordability crisis has meant that more households in Oxford now rent their homes rather than own them. Oxford has been identified as the most unaffordable location outside of London for private renting: median rents for two bedroom homes account for 55% of local median full-time earnings.3 1.3 Oxford’s population is growing and increased by 10% over the last decade. It is predicted that the population will continue to grow rapidly. The City has a population profile which is young, diverse and attracted by the opportunities the city offers. The young population means that Oxford continues to experience a strong demand for family housing. Table 1.1: Population growth in Oxford, 1801-2021 1.4 Leading businesses report severe difficulty in the recruitment and the retention of staff at all levels, because of a lack of housing choice and affordability.4 Also, a recent report5 reveals how our universities are being held back in the global competition for the best 1 Annual Lloyds Bank Affordable Cities Review (23rd March 2014) 2 Census 2011 (www.ons.gov.uk) 3 Shelter Private Rent Watch, Analysis of local rent levels and affordability (Shelter, 2011) 4 Withy King Business Barometer (www.withyking.co.uk) 5 The Oxford Innovation Engine: Realising the Growth Potential (SQW, October 2013) 1 research talent, due to the lack of affordable homes and lack of land for expanding business/research. Outcomes in our public services, such as health and education, are compromised through the lack of available affordable housing for key staff. 1.5 The recently published Oxfordshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment, or ‘SHMA’6 showed that there is a need for between 24,000 and 32,000 new homes in Oxford alone, to meet existing and future housing needs. There would need to be 988 affordable homes built per year (nearly 20,000 in total) to meet the needs of those who cannot afford to pay open market rents or purchase prices. 1.6 Across Oxfordshire, the SHMA identified a need for between 93,560 and 106,560 homes to be built in Oxfordshire in the period 2011-2031 (between 4,678 and 5,328 per year). This includes the unmet Oxford need, as well as the need arising within the other Oxfordshire districts making up the Oxford and Oxfordshire Housing Market Area. However only around 3,000 homes per year are proposed by adopted or emerging Local Plans for the five Oxfordshire districts. This means a shortfall of between 36% and 44% against the assessed housing needs for the county. 1.7 In order to ensure informed decisions are made in relation to accommodating housing needs, Oxford City Council has embarked on a programme to objectively consider the various growth options in and around the City. The Council has published a ‘Route Map’ which sets out the process and strategy the Council is following in seeking to address these issues. This includes the consideration of development opportunities around Oxford, including areas within the Green Belt. A balanced growth solution 1.8 The City Council is working hard to deliver more housing within Oxford’s boundaries. The City is already leading the delivery of over 1,500 new homes over the next 5 years on land it owns through innovative partnerships with developers. 1.9 However both Oxford’s administrative boundary, and the boundary of the Oxford Green Belt, are drawn very tightly around the City’s urban area. Very little suitable land remains within the City’s boundaries for further housing development beyond that already planned for. Subject to independent confirmation of the City’s lack of capacity to accommodate all of the homes necessary, the Oxfordshire local authorities have agreed to work together to address Oxford’s unmet housing need. However questions remain as to where this additional development will be located, and whether it will happen fast enough to address the urgent and damaging housing problems. 1.10 Options to meet the unmet need are currently being considered by the Oxfordshire Spatial Planning and Infrastructure Partnership (SPIP). These include further growth around the ‘County Towns’, or a new settlement outside the Green Belt. Whilst these options may help deliver much needed housing and growth across Oxfordshire, they are unlikely to address Oxford’s needs, in terms of sustainability, a balanced population, and the economic role of Oxford at the heart of Oxfordshire’s economy. 6 Oxfordshire Strategic Housing Market Assessment (GL Hearn, March 2014) 2 1.11 The City Council believes that the time has come to review the Oxford Green Belt boundary, to allow a re-assessment which properly reflects the purpose of the Green Belt and the need for housing and growth. Urban extensions would be well linked to existing employment and services, using Oxford’s highly-developed public transport and cycling networks. 1.12 The City Council is supported in this view. The Oxford Strategic Partnership’s Economic Growth Strategy published early 2013, based on independent research by consultants Shared Intelligence, identified the urgent need to enable housing and employment growth through urban extensions. The report Oxfordshire Innovation Engine: Realising the Growth Potential reported that Oxford has to grow to fulfil its role within the high tech economy, including housing and employment development to the north and south of the existing urban area with necessary Green Belt adjustments. Furthermore, a panel of independent Planning Inspectors had already accepted the proposal for an urban extension for the south of the city at Grenoble Road, within the current Green Belt, concluding that the necessary ‘exceptional circumstances’ had been demonstrated. Study Objectives 1.13 The aim of this report is to provide a high level assessment of potential development locations around Oxford and revisit whether there are exceptional circumstances to support the release of land from the Green Belt. 1.14 It draws on previous analysis already undertaken including the ‘Investigation into the potential to accommodate urban extensions in Oxford’s Green Belt – Informal Assessment’ (May 2014), which identified the following six areas of the Green Belt which merit further consideration for possible release for development. • Yarnton • North of Oxford/South of Kidlington • Wick Farm • Wheatley • South of Grenoble Road • North of Abingdon 1.15 These locations were identified following analysis of environmental constraints around Oxford as well as the Green Belt function. They are considered the areas least affected by flood risk, or other environmental constraints. 1.16 In taking this work forward, this report considers the strength and weaknesses of these identified areas in the context of other matters such as: • highway and infrastructure capacity; • heritage impacts; • landscape value and visual impact; • and socio-economic factors including proximity to jobs and public transport. 1.17 The assessment work is appended to this Report and the outputs of this analysis is summarised for each location in Section 6. 3 1.18 Accordingly, the report is structured as follows: • Section 2 briefly summaries the previous technical work which has been undertaken to date; • Section 3 considers the context for an Oxford Green Belt review, as part of a balanced growth approach; • Section 4 considers the ‘exceptional circumstances’ case for a Green Belt review; • Section 5 provides an introduction to the six areas which have been identified for further consideration; • Section 6 considers the strengths and weaknesses of the six areas; and • Section 7 sets out our summary and conclusions. 1.19 This study does not seek to reach a final decision on the right approach to delivering new development. This will require inter alia a more comprehensive assessment of the suitability of various approaches and agreement through the Oxfordshire Growth Board. However, the work is intended to inform the Growth Board process and assist in identifying the most appropriate locations for growth. 1.20 In accordance with the ‘Route Plan’ document, this work will lead into a high level sustainability appraisal of potential growth locations and inform decisions on whether to investigate further the appropriateness and capacity of specific locations to accommodate growth. 4 2. Previous Work 2.1 This document draws on existing work, most notably the ‘Investigation into the potential to accommodate urban extensions in Oxford’s Green Belt – Informal Assessment’ (May 2014) prepared by Oxford City Council.