OVERVIEW the Field for This Year's Kentucky Derby Is
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OVERVIEW The field for this year’s Kentucky Derby is unusually strong. The winners of all of the major prep races---- Arkansas, Florida, California, Kentucky, New York, Louisiana and Dubai---were dominant. Two key angles this year: two horses, including race favorite Justify, are trying to break the “Curse of Apollo,” named after the last horse to win the Derby without having raced as a two-year old. The last time it happened was 1882! The other theme is the dominance by big time trainers. Four of the most renowned trainers in the world, Bob Baffert, Todd Pletcher, Chad Brown and Aidan O’Brien train all of the major contenders and it would be a surprise if a horse from somebody else’s barn won. Rain is in the forecast for Friday but Saturday is expected to be dry so track conditions are not likely to be a factor. I’ll assess every horse in the field, in post-position order. THE FIELD #1 FIRENZE FIRE - The post position is awful and the horse is too slow. #2 FREE DROP BILLY - Lousy post position but the horse is training well and could come from off the pace for a lesser placing. #3 PROMISES FULFILLED - He’s the likely pacesetter and may be on the lead for most of the race. But the pace is likely to be torrid and I doubt he’ll last. #4 FLAMEAWAY - Not likely but not impossible. He should be close to the pace and ran a good second to Good Magic in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. #5 AUDIBLE - This is the first of four horses from trainer Todd Pletcher. This horse won the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park and Pletcher-trained Always Dreaming used that exact same path to win last year’s Derby. But jockey John Velazquez opted off this horse to ride Vino Rosso. #6 GOOD MAGIC - He was the champion two year old last year and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This is his third race of the year and his last, a win in the Blue Grass, was a big step forward. His trainer, Chad Brown, is winning everything in America right now and it’s only a matter of time before he wins a Derby. Good Magic has looked great in his training at Churchill Downs. His breeding suggests the race distance is perfect. His stalking running style is ideal and his rider won the award for best jockey in America last year. In other words, there is a LOT to like here. #7 JUSTIFY - He is very likely to be the favorite. He’s won all three races of his career races (all at Santa Anita) and each one was very fast. He’s a large imposing horse who has been highly regarded from the beginning by trainer Bob Baffert who has won the Derby four times. His rider is also in the Hall of Fame. But he is bucking the “Apollo curse” by not having made his career debut until February. His first three races had a combined 14 opponents. He’s facing 19 in this race alone. Traffic issues, being jostled around and the whole Derby scene are a lot for such an inexperienced horse. You’ve got to use him in your wagers and he is actually a possible Triple Crown winner but it is hard to “Justify” making a big bet on him at a short price in a field this talented while he is up against 136 years of history. #8 LONE SAILOR - He’s 50-1 in the program odds but actually has a chance. He was a nice closing second in the Louisiana Derby, has been freshened and had a rocket-ship workout over the Churchill track April 19. #9 HOFBURG - Like Justify, he’s had only three career starts but each one has been a big improvement over the last. He is bred to get the distance. Trainer Bill Mott is not one to enter his horses over their heads and rider Irad Ortiz is as good as anybody in America. He could be any kind but this spot is very tough. #10 MY BOY JACK - Underrated trainer whose brother has ridden the Derby winner three times and is aboard this one. This horse always fires but never runs spectacularly. He has at least some shot to do as well as third or fourth. #11 BOLT D’ORO - He ran second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby and all six of his career starts has been excellent. Jockey Victor Espinoza has won the Derby three times including the Triple Crown with American Pharoah. But the owner-trainer has never been in a situation like this and I have the sense that this horse might already have peaked. #12 ENTICED - Here’s a sleeper. He ran second to Vino Rosso in a strong running of the Wood Memorial, he’s improving and he is a brilliantly-bred horse. Good trainer and jockey. He will be a huge longshot but is not without an outside chance. #13 BRAVAZO - He’s trained by 82-year old legend D. Wayne Lukas, the native of Antigo. If this horse wins, it will be the biggest upset in Lukas’ amazing career. #14 MENDELSSOHN - He’s a half-brother to Beholder, the best American filly of this decade. He’s based in Ireland but shipped to the US to win the Breeders’ Cup turf race for two year olds last year. In his first ever start on dirt, he romped by 18 lengths to win the UAE Derby in Dubai in his last start. He’s by far the best horse to try the Dubai route to the Derby but nobody has pulled that off yet. This is another one who might not handle a crowded field and blistering pace. But, on raw ability, he might be right there with Justify. The jockey, Ryan Moore, is the best rider in the world but most of his experience is on grass races outside the United States. The trainer is arguably the most successful global trainer in the history of the sport. #15 INSTILLED REGARD - Every race he’s run has been OK. But OK isn’t good enough for the Kentucky Derby. #16 MAGNUM MOON - He’s an undefeated 4-for-4 but, like Justify, did not run as a two year old. Trained by Todd Pletcher. He did drift out in the stretch in each of his last two races and I think he’s being asked to do too much too soon. #17 SOLOMINI - Baffert’s “other” horse which is reason enough to consider him. But there are few other reasons. #18 VINO ROSSO - He won the Wood Memorial with a powerful finish that is exactly what you want to see in a Kentucky Derby winner. The time of that race was fast. He’s trained by Pletcher and rider John Velazquez chose this horse over the other Pletcher runners. He will come from off the pace but that might be the preferred style in a race filled with speed horses. Velazquez is a master with this type of horse. I watched the final workouts of all 20 horses and Vino Rosso’s was the one that impressed me the most. The breeding is perfect for the Derby distance. Two knocks: the Wood winner hasn’t won the Derby in ages and the last race was so strong that he might “bounce” or regress off of it. If he runs back to that race, however, you may be looking at the winner of the 2018 Kentucky Derby. #19 NOBLE INDY - Yet another Pletcher trainee. This one won the Louisiana Derby, one of the lesser of the prep races but I was very impressed how he fought back on the rail after being passed. Horses rarely do that. He’s had good workouts and has a very good jockey. He’s the most overlooked of the Pletcher runners but I think the second best of them. Possible longshot winner. #20 COMBATANT - He comes from way back, always threatens, and never wins. Look for the same here. Very good chance to hit the board but very little chance of finishing first. #21 BLENDED CITIZEN - This horse will run only if another horse scratches before Friday. He has nine starts already and keeps improving. If he gets in, I give him a very good shot of coming from off the pace to finish in the money. PREDICTION HORSE PROGRAM ODDS #18 VINO ROSSO 12-1 #6 GOOD MAGIC 12-1 #7 JUSTIFY 3-1 #19 NOBLE INDY 30-1 #5 AUDIBLE 8-1 #14 MENDELSSOHN 6-1 #10 MY BOY JACK 30-1 #21 BLENDED CITIZEN 50-1 ANALYSIS I have three Pletcher horses in my top five. My top choice is one of them. Vino and Good Magic are almost dead even in my mind. Both have the right running style and appear to be peaking. Justify and Mendelssohn may have the most talent and either could win but both are being asked to take paths that just don’t win the Derby. Don’t discount Noble Indy. If you play pick threes or pick fours, use him. I have given preference to horses that come from at least a little off the pace as I believe the pace of the race will be very fast. One caveat is that we don’t know how the track will be playing. If it is favoring speed, my picks here might be all wrong. SOME WAGERS Bet #18 and #6 to win, place and show (choose an amount you’re comfortable with) $1 trifecta 6-18-19 with 5-6-7-18-19 with 5-6-7-10-14-18-19-20 ($72) $2 exacta box 5-6-7-14-18-19 ($60) *****Add #21 to the third spot in the trifecta wager and into the exacta box if he draws into the race OTHER RACES All at Churchill Downs Saturday (bet all to win place and show): Race 2: #6 Big Gray Rocket (5-1) Race 3: #6 Irish Freedom (7-2) Race 7: #9 On Leave (8-1) Race 10: #5 Mississippi (10-1) FRIDAY In the Kentucky Oaks I like #5 Wonder Gadot (20-1) along with #13 Eskimo Kisses (15-1) and #14 Monomoy Girl (2-1).