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Midterm Election Analysis

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Midterm Election Analysis 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION ANALYSIS PRIME POLICY GROUP | PSB RESEARCH | BCW | DIRECT IMPACT Production Credits Analysis and Commentary The leading bipartisan government affairs firm in Washington. Prime solves problems and builds brands with powerful relationships, policy expertise, and capabilities on Capitol Hill and beyond. Pioneers in the bipartisan approach to problem solving, we have earned a unique reputation for shaping public affairs. prime-policy.com Polling Data With roots in innovative political campaign strategy, PSB Research is a full- service strategic insights consultancy engaging blue-chip organizations across all sectors. PSB has over 40 years of experience using research to help Fortune 500 companies navigate their most difficult business challenges. psbresearch.com Design Founded by the merger of Burson-Marsteller and Cohn & Wolfe, Burson Cohn & Wolfe is one of the world’s largest full-service global communications agencies. BCW delivers digitally and data driven creative integrated communications programs grounded in earned media and scaled across all channels. bcw-global.com Field Insight BCW’s grassroots arm, delivers unparalleled grassroots campaigns across the U.S. through an extensive field network, along with targeting technology, to build influence in the communities that matter most to our clients. directimpact.com Table of Contents 2 Production Credits 3 Table of Contents 4 Overview 6 House of Representatives 9 Senate 13 Governors and State Legislatures 14 Lame Duck Agenda 17 Bios for Newly Elected Officials 41 Committee Changes Overview Results and Implications The 2018 midterm elections played out largely as expected: not quite the “Blue Wave” that some Republicans privately feared, but certainly not a disappointment for Democrats either. As of this writing, Democrats won control of the House of Representatives by picking up at least 31 seats, but Republicans expanded their Senate majority by picking up at least 2 seats. Democrats also managed to pick up at least four governorships and several state legislatures. Additionally, voters in Florida decided to restore voting rights to rehabilitated felons, a major victory for voting rights advocates. Strong Headwinds For Democrats Republicans enjoyed a favorable environment Democrats also successfully capitalized on leading up to the election: unemployment stands at widespread dissatisfaction with the direction of the a 50 year low, consumer confidence is increasing, country and tapped into a groundswell of support and until just a few weeks ago, the stock market from the suburbs of major Eastern and Midwestern was at record highs. President Trump, however, cities, areas where white, educated women tended to wanted the election to be a referendum on himself - dominate the electorate. Democrats fielded strong and was mostly successful. In exit polls, 2 in 3 voters candidates—including record numbers of women said that their vote for Congress was because of and veterans—in contested districts and talked President Trump. President Trump’s low approval up bread and butter issues, such as healthcare, rating was a particular drag on the 25 Republicans which was the top concern for independent voters holding seats in House districts that were won by in exit polls. Hillary Clinton in 2016. HOUSE SENATE R | 200 ? | 1 D | 234 R | 52 ? | 1 D | 47 435 TOTAL 100 TOTAL 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION ANALYSIS | PRIME POLICY GROUP | PSB RESEARCH | BCW | DIRECT IMPACT | 4 An Enthusiasm Election Democrats ultimately were able to capitalize on Average age of freshman members overwhelming negative views on President Trump, th which translated into unprecedented enthusiasm. 112 Congress The Democrats held consistent and significant leads House: 48.2 on generic ballot measures in the months before the Senate: 52.1 election, as well as a huge fundraising advantage. 113th Congress The 2018 cycle broke records for early voter turnout House: 49.2 in a midterm elections and looks likely to have the Senate: 53 highest overall turnout in a non-presidential election in decades. According to exit polls, 1 in 6 of those 114th Congress who cast a ballot were first-time voters, and 61% of House: 52.3 them voted for Democrats. Senate: 50.7 While this enthusiasm helped Democrats sweep 115th Congress through the House, it was not enough to overcome House: 50.8 the unfavorable landscape in the Senate, where Senate: 54.8 Republicans had a great night. The big question 116th Congress is whether Democrats can maintain this momentum House: 49 as the campaign for 2020 begins to heat up Senate: 49.75 and Democrats face a much more favorable Senate landscape. Freshmen members in comparison An unprecedented number of women, minorities, to other wave elections veterans, and younger candidates ran for office, and many of them will take their seats in the 54th Congress (GOP Wave) 116th Congress. The new Congress will take office 176 new members on January 3rd, and it will look very different than in years past. 103rd Congress (GOP Wave) 110 new members 112th Congress (GOP Wave) 94 new members 116th Congress At least 101 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION ANALYSIS | PRIME POLICY GROUP | PSB RESEARCH | BCW | DIRECT IMPACT | 5 House of Representatives Divided government officially arrives in Washington. In the 116th Congress, the House of Representatives will be composed of at at least 226 Democrats and 198 Republicans. Of the 21 races that have yet to be called, Democrats currently lead in 8 of them and Republicans lead in 13. It is no surprise that Democrats, as the opposition party in the midterms, found themselves more popular with voters, but their success in capitalizing on it is notable. Democrats managed to mount challengers in more than 70 tossup races across the country and successfully outraised and outspent their Republican counterparts nationwide. Sending a convincing message, they captured at least 29 in the House of Representatives, with more likely to be added, while losing only two they currently hold. The gender gap and surge in women voters, who and vote counters of her time. Looking forward cast ballots for Democrats by a 55-41 margin she will try to work with her Members to earn them according to exit polls, provided a key demographic legislative successes. that Democrats harnessed at the polls and on the ballot. A record number of female candidates ran The new Democratic House of Representatives and won, making this this largest amount of women is likely to usher in the old with the new. While elected to the House of Representatives ever there has been much speculation and internal elected, surpassing even the “year of the woman” consternation about Rep. Pelosi’s future as leader in 1992. Conversely, on the other side of the Capitol, of the Democratic Caucus, no challengers to her there is widespread agreement that Democratic have emerged and it seems likely that the current Senate candidates suffered a notable setback in key leadership team is reelected. It is important to races in the wake of the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme note, however, that at least 10 new Members Court confirmation battle. who publicly disavowed Pelosi have won their races and five more are currently leading. H Rep. While partisanship and dysfunction will continue Steny Hoyer (MD), whom many had thought to mark Congress’ overall report card, the new might seize the opportunity to challenge Pelosi, class of freshman Democrats seek to govern and has no intention of doing so. Rep. Jim Clyburn, find a way to put legislative wins on the board, who currently serves as the Assistant no matter how small. Rep. Nancy Pelosi (CA) is Democratic Leader, has said that he intends aware of the dynamics of each of their districts; to announce his bid to be Majority Whip, a position while representing left leaning San Francisco, she likely to be vacated by Hoyer when he becomes is known to be one of the most skilled legislators Majority Leader. 2018 MIDTERM ELECTION ANALYSIS | PRIME POLICY GROUP | PSB RESEARCH | BCW | DIRECT IMPACT | 6 Newly elected Members, however, will allow the As predicted, Democrats were able to win a number New Democratic and Blue Dog Coalition to grow of suburban districts that had long been bastions of significantly and to exert their influence accordingly. Republican support, from Dallas and Houston to the They largely hail from the center of the political Washington suburbs in Virginia. In Virginia alone, spectrum, candidates uniquely suited to their Democrats flipped three Republican-held districts districts, who toppled a sitting Republican Member at least in part due to their strength in the suburbs. or won open seats formerly held by Republicans. Democrats saw only two of the districts they On the Republican side, changes in leadership are represent - Minnesota’s 8th and Pennsylvania’s guaranteed, as current Speaker of the House Paul 14th districts - flip to Republicans. However, the Ryan (WI) did not seek reelection. With Republicans Pennsylvania district probably deserves an asterisk moving to the minority party in the 116th Congress, —with redistricting, the boundaries changed so Rep. Kevin McCarthy (CA) is expected to be dramatically that Republicans were almost assured chosen by the conference on November 14 to lead of a pickup. them. If Rep. McCarthy unexpectedly bows out of the leadership race, Rep. Steve Scalise (LA) will be When Rep. Mark Sanford (SC) was defeated by a the most likely leader; wile Rep. Jim Jordan (OH) Trump-supported challenger from the right, Democrats has expressed interest in the position, it is unlikely identified the seat as being a possible pick-up. Last that he will have the votes to win. night, that suggestion bore out, with Katie Arrington (R) losing to Joe Cunningham (D). Democrats have not represented this district since 1981. Key Races Georgia’s 6th District—of Jon Ossoff fame—is truly The most surprising Democratic House victories the district that won’t go away.
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