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Breakthrough Year

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Breakthrough Year Bill Oppenheim, January 29-Current Form With the 2014 season not even a month old, he is in the top 20 on the 2014 TDN Year-to-Date General Sire List (click here), and is the leading 2014 sire of individual black-type winners, with four already. Going up! Click here to read Andrew Caulfield's Jan. 14 column covering English Channel. BREAKTHROUGH YEAR For his part, Curlin was Horse of The Year twice, is I know, there are plenty of people who say a 'good the all-time leading money-earner trained in North gamble' is an oxymoron, but when you think about the America ($10.5-million), and level of financial gambling involved in sire selection, won seven Grade I races at three and four, including the GI there has to be some relativity included in the equation. Preakness S., GI Breeders' Cup One of the best applications of the APEX figures is to Classic, and G1 Dubai World try to decipher which stallions are doing well enough Cup. He never even ran at two. that they are undervalued as sires of racehorses, Though he had only two A regardless of their commercial stature. An even bigger Runners (0.66) through the end gamble, is to try and read between the lines a little bit of 2013, one of them is the and decipher which sires may not have the big figures GI Belmont S. winner Palace Curlin Malice, who remains in training www.lanesend.com yet, but have potential in the numbers which tells you and is also one of 15 3-year-old that they have. ABC Runners in Curlin's first crop of 3-year-olds in Which brings me to the subject of Smart Strike as a 2013. His 2-year-old ABC Runner Index (0.97) is a little sire of sires. Of the 937 sires assigned year-end 2013 more respectable, but his 3-year-old ABC Index, for his APEX ratings, probably the two sires which struck me first crop last year, was 2.30. He's the leading as being the most likely candidates to have third-crop sire both by earnings and by number of 2014 winners with 13 already this year, including three 'breakthrough' years in 2013 are both sons of Smart 4-year-old black-type horses last Saturday, and several Strike, both stand at Lane's End and both cost $25,000 promising 3-year-old winners, including Santa Anita J this year to breed to English Channel and Curlin. “TDN Rising Star” J Texas Ryano, and the good English Channel is the elder of the two. He was Gulfstream Park allowance winner and J “TDN Rising foaled in 2002, won six Grade I races one at nine Star” J Top Billing, also a winner last Saturday. He furlongs, the other five at 11 and 12 furlongs on the also had another J “TDN Rising Star” J, the turf, including the 2007 3-year-old filly Diversy Harbor, on Sunday. Hey, there is GI Breeders' Cup Turf (on no crystal ball he might end up with two A Runners at the end of 2014, but equally (and I think this is more soft turf at Monmouth), and likely) Curlin could be a sire poised for a real was named Champion Turf breakthrough year. Horse that year. A few, not Not all Smart Strikes are slow burners. His age all, of these Smart Strikes ratings are very consistent, including an impressive can be slow burners. Smart 1.88 for 2-year-old ABC Runners. One of his best Strike himself never ran at 2-year-olds was Square Eddie, who was bought by English Channel Jamie McCalmont for Paul Reddam after running www.lanesend.com two. Curlin never ran at second in the six-furlong Sirenia S. at Kempton Park on two and English Channel the all-weather in September of his 2-year-old year. In ran once at two, winning over 8 1/2 furlongs at his first run off the plane he won the GI Breeders' Saratoga. In 2013, English Channel had eight A Futurity at Keeneland and his second he was beaten Runners, all eight were from his first crop of only by Midshipman (Unbridled=s Song) in the 2008 4-year-olds, and he had a total of 13 4-year-old ABC GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita; both those Runners last year. That's a lot of decent horses running runs were also on all-weather courses. He placed in two GI Kentucky Derby preps at one-mile plus at three, but for you. was then on the bench until the fall, when he was At the end of 2013 English Channel's A Runner Index re-invented as a sprinter. After missing his entire (ARI) was 2.67, which ranked him only behind Dark 4-year-old year when he was siring his first crop at Angel (2.86) among F2009 sires with 200 or more Vessels Farm in California, in his first start at five, after year-starters through the end of 2013 and ahead of Santa Anita went back to dirt, he ran a half-mile in Discreet Cat (2.42), Street Sense (2.15), Teofilo (2.10), :43 2/5 on the way to setting a new 6 1/2-furlong track and Dutch Art (1.99). He also has an ABC Index of record. His resulting 2011 crop of 33 foals included 13 1.62, which is actually pretty good for more of a runners, five winners, one black-type winner and four middle-distance sire. Significantly, his runners are black-type horses, made him the leading freshman sire showing marked improvement each year: his 2-year-old in California last year, and ranked him number nine ABC Index is just 0.48; he is 1.62 for 3-year-olds, and nationally. 2.28 for his first 4-year-olds. Besides the three sons of Smart Strike with runners mentioned above, Coolmore's Lookin At Lucky will have his first 2-year-olds in 2014. Lookin At Lucky, a $475,000 Keeneland 2-year-old purchase trained by Bob Baffert was really good, but in a couple of key races, he wasn't so lucky. His only defeat in six starts at two (including three Grade I wins) came in the 2009 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, when he “With a much bigger catalogue than last year, OBS becomes the first regional sales drew the 13 hole and was beaten a head by Vale of company to show signs of recovery, with 78% more catalogued and 80% more sold York (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}). He still, deservedly, than in the corresponding sale in 2013. The gross was up a whopping 125%, and the average up by 25%. OBS has already been gaining more and more of the won the Eclipse Award as Champion 2-year-old male. In 2-Year-Old sales market share, so OBS shareholders must be pretty pleased with the 2010 GI Kentucky Derby, in which he was sent off their 2014 results so far, and optimistic about the prospects for their March and April the tepid 6-1 favorite, he had the opposite problem. He 2-Year-Old sales.” – Bill Oppenheim drew the one-hole and was literally almost put into the fence when the field shifted left coming out of the 10-furlong chute on to the main track. I thought he ran an amazing race to recover and finish sixth to Super Saver (Maria=s Mon) that day. He came back to win his next three the GI Preakness S., GI Haskell Invitational S., and GII Indiana Derby before running a respectable fourth, drawn 12 of 12 and wide the whole way, behind Blame (Arch) and Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}) in the 2010 GI Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. He was named Champion 3-year-old male in 2010. According to the Jockey Club's online fact book, he had 107 foals in his first crop, 2-year-olds this year, so obviously, in the best Coolmore tradition, he's getting a real shot. Considering all of this evidence, it is a OBS WINTER MIXED SALE (INCLUDING HORSES IN TRAINING) reasonable bet that Smart Strike will be held in much YEAR CAT RING SOLD %W/D %S/R %S/C GROSS AVG higher regard as a sire of sires by the end of 2014. 2014 809 633 463 21.8% 73.1% 57.2% $6,408,500 $13,841 Click here to share. 2013 454 392 257 13.7% 65.6% 56.6% $2,835,200 $11,032 2012 382 335 238 12.3% 71.0% 62.3% $2,475,300 $10,400 2011 522 451 309 13.6% 68.5% 59.2% $2,376,000 $7,689 Bill Oppenheim may be contacted at [email protected] 2010 469 425 288 9.4% 67.8% 61.4% $1,656,000 $5,750 (please cc TDN management at 2009 612 484 343 20.9% 70.9% 56.0% $2,129,100 $6,207 [email protected]). Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/billoppenheim. TOTAL US MIXED SALES AS OF JAN 28, 2014 YEAR CAT RING SOLD %W/D %S/R %S/C GROSS AVG 2014 2,399 1,910 1,490 20.4% 78.0% 62.1% $47,434,200 $31,835 2013 2,347 1,869 1,362 20.4% 72.9% 58.0% $48,042,500 $35,273 2012 1,976 1,585 1,241 19.8% 78.3% 62.8% $40,467,200 $32,609 2011 2,349 1,857 1,330 20.9% 71.6% 56.6% $27,626,350 $20,772 2010 2,222 1,770 1,270 20.3% 71.8% 57.2% $25,551,100 $20,119 2009 2,991 2,196 1,681 26.6% 76.5% 56.2% $34,953,100 $20,793 Data compiled by Brianne Stanley .
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