UNIVERSITY of CALGARY Vulnerability Assessment of Skiing-Dependent Businesses to the Effects of Climate Change in Banff and Jasp
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UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Vulnerability Assessment of Skiing-Dependent Businesses to the Effects of Climate Change in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada by David Michael Reynolds A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY CALGARY, ALBERTA APRIL, 2010 ©David M. Reynolds 2010 Library and Archives Bibliothèque et Canada Archives Canada Published Heritage Direction du Branch Patrimoine de l’édition 395 Wellington Street 395, rue Wellington Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Ottawa ON K1A 0N4 Canada Canada Your file Votre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-62173-8 Our file Notre référence ISBN: 978-0-494-62173-8 NOTICE: AVIS: The author has granted a non- L’auteur a accordé une licence non exclusive exclusive license allowing Library and permettant à la Bibliothèque et Archives Archives Canada to reproduce, Canada de reproduire, publier, archiver, publish, archive, preserve, conserve, sauvegarder, conserver, transmettre au public communicate to the public by par télécommunication ou par l’Internet, prêter, telecommunication or on the Internet, distribuer et vendre des thèses partout dans le loan, distribute and sell theses monde, à des fins commerciales ou autres, sur worldwide, for commercial or non- support microforme, papier, électronique et/ou commercial purposes, in microform, autres formats. paper, electronic and/or any other formats. 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UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES The undersigned certify that they have read and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate Studies for acceptance a dissertation entitled “Vulnerability Assessment of Skiing-Dependent Businesses to the Effects of Climate Change in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada” submitted by David Michael Reynolds in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. Supervisor, Dianne Draper, Ph.D. Department of Geography Bruce Leeson, Ph.D., Parks Canada (retired) Simon Hudson, Ph.D. University of South Carolina Robert Schulz, Ph.D. Haskayne School of Business External, Peter Williams, Ph.D. Simon Fraser University Date ii ABSTRACT This qualitative study examines the potential positive and negative socio-economic impacts that may emerge from the long-term effects of climate change on skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada. My goal was to determine whether or not skiing-related tourism in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s is more or less socio- economically vulnerable to the effects of climate change on snow cover, temperatures and ski season length at ski resorts in the parks. My study explored the level of awareness and personal perceptions of 60 skiing-dependent business managers about how the impact of climate change on ski resorts may influence future socio-economics of ski tourism businesses. I employed a vulnerability assessment approach and adopted some elements of grounded theory. My primary data sources are interviews with managers and the outcome of the geographical factors index (GFI). Supporting methods include: an analysis and interpretation of climate model data and an interpretation of the economic analysis of skiing in the parks. The interview data were sorted and coded to establish concepts and findings by interview questions, while the GFI model rated and ranked 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. The findings answered the research questions and helped me conclude what the future socio-economic vulnerability may be of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks. The interviews revealed that managers are not informed about climate change and they have not seen any urgency to consider the effects on business. The GFI revealed that the ski resorts in the parks ranked in the top ten of 24 ski resorts in the Cordillera based on 14 common geographical factors. The economic reports suggest skiing is the foundation of the winter economy in the parks and any impact on skiing would directly impact other skiing-dependent businesses. Research indicates that the effects of climate change may have less economic impact on skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper in the 2020s and 2050s compared with other ski resorts located in the Cordillera. Recommendations are provided to explore future research opportunities and for skiing-dependent businesses and government organizations. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I extend my gratitude to my Ph.D Supervisor, Dr. Dianne Draper. She supported my project proposal from the beginning. I thank Dr. Draper for the time she devoted mentoring and guiding me through some of the rough spots, around mental potholes and past detours that I encountered as I travelled down the road toward a Ph.D. She has been very patient and tolerant with me, and for that I am grateful. Had it not been for her constant and spirited encouragement, I might have packed it in several years ago. I also acknowledge the encouragement of my other committee members: Dr. Bruce Leeson and Dr. Simon Hudson. I worked with Dr. Bruce Leeson many years ago at Parks Canada. When I approached him to be on my committee he agreed without a moment’s hesitation. He thought the project had considerable merit and so agreed to stay with me over the four and half years it has taken. Likewise, Dr. Simon Hudson, formerly of the Haskayne School of Business and now at University of South Carolina, remains on my committee even though he has relocated to U.S.A. He, too, has been a mentor and inspiration for me. I greatly appreciate their support. I had three other committee members who have since moved on: Dr. Lawrence Nkemdirim and Dr. Don Getz have recently retired from the University of Calgary; and Dr. Jeremy Hall has relocated to Simon Fraser University in British Columbia. I thank you all for your guidance during my long journey. I also would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the Prairie Adaptive Research Collaborative (PARC); and to Parks Canada for providing a research permit that allowed my research to take place in Banff and Jasper National Parks and for covering the cost of camping in the parks while conducting my interviews. Many other coworkers, colleagues and friends, too numerous to mention here, have supported my efforts to complete this degree. To all of you … thanks! iv DEDICATION As with any major personal undertaking and achievement, there are always special people in the background who deserve recognition. In my case, it is my immediate family. They rode out the highs and lows with me. My family put up with my absence in spirit, if not at times in body, as I sequestered myself away in my office night after night and weekend after weekend for more than four and a half years. I could not ask for a better support unit and cheering section than the one that surrounds me. Thankfully, my journey was made easier with the full support and encouragement of my wife of 37 years, Colleen. She was with me all the way and never complained. She has my love, gratitude and admiration for her undying support and unfailing encouragement. I dedicate this degree to her. Colleen, you have earned it. Likewise, this degree is dedicated to my adult children Ryan and Anni, both of whom know what it is like to pursue a degree or two. They have been on the sidelines cheering my marathon race to the finish line. Every time I threatened to quit, they would pipe up and say “no you’re not!” Their encouragement motivated me. DMR v TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval page ii Abstract iii Acknowledgments iv Dedication v Table of contents vi List of figures viii List of tables CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Background and context 5 1.3 Problem statement 9 1.4 Statement of purpose and research questions 10 1.5 Research approach 11 1.6 Study area 13 1.7 Assumptions 16 1.8 Rational and significance 16 1.9 The researcher 18 1.10 Definition of key terminology 18 1.11 Road map of chapters 20 CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Introduction 21 2.2 Climate process in mountain regions 23 2.3 Mountain tourism 27 2.4 Skiing and ski resorts 39 2.5 Climate change in Banff National Park 51 2.6 Economic importance of ski tourism in Banff and Jasper 56 2.7 Chapter summary 68 CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction 71 3.2 Qualitative research design 72 3.3 Vulnerability assessment approach 73 3.4 Grounded theory 74 3.5 Research population 79 3.6 Data collection methods 82 3.7 Data analysis and synthesis 100 3.8 Ethical considerations 104 3.9 Issues of trustworthiness 105 3.10 Summary 106 vi CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS 4.1 Introduction 107 4.2 Findings 108 4.3 Chapter summary 148 CHAPTER 5: INTERPRETION OF FINDINGS 5.1 Introduction 150 5.2 Finding 1: Geographical