UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY

Vulnerability Assessment of Skiing-Dependent Businesses to the Effects of Climate Change in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada

by

David Michael Reynolds

A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO

THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE

REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY

CALGARY, ALBERTA

APRIL, 2010

©David M. Reynolds 2010

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UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY

FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES

The undersigned certify that they have read and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate Studies for acceptance a dissertation entitled “Vulnerability Assessment of Skiing-Dependent Businesses to the Effects of Climate Change in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada” submitted by David Michael Reynolds in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.

Supervisor, Dianne Draper, Ph.D. Department of Geography

Bruce Leeson, Ph.D., Parks Canada (retired)

Simon Hudson, Ph.D. University of South Carolina

Robert Schulz, Ph.D. Haskayne School of Business

External, Peter Williams, Ph.D. Simon Fraser University

Date

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ABSTRACT

This qualitative study examines the potential positive and negative socio-economic impacts that may emerge from the long-term effects of climate change on skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada. My goal was to determine whether or not skiing-related tourism in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s is more or less socio- economically vulnerable to the effects of climate change on snow cover, temperatures and ski season length at ski resorts in the parks. My study explored the level of awareness and personal perceptions of 60 skiing-dependent business managers about how the impact of climate change on ski resorts may influence future socio-economics of ski tourism businesses. I employed a vulnerability assessment approach and adopted some elements of grounded theory. My primary data sources are interviews with managers and the outcome of the geographical factors index (GFI). Supporting methods include: an analysis and interpretation of climate model data and an interpretation of the economic analysis of skiing in the parks. The interview data were sorted and coded to establish concepts and findings by interview questions, while the GFI model rated and ranked 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. The findings answered the research questions and helped me conclude what the future socio-economic vulnerability may be of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks. The interviews revealed that managers are not informed about climate change and they have not seen any urgency to consider the effects on business. The GFI revealed that the ski resorts in the parks ranked in the top ten of 24 ski resorts in the Cordillera based on 14 common geographical factors. The economic reports suggest skiing is the foundation of the winter economy in the parks and any impact on skiing would directly impact other skiing-dependent businesses. Research indicates that the effects of climate change may have less economic impact on skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper in the 2020s and 2050s compared with other ski resorts located in the Cordillera. Recommendations are provided to explore future research opportunities and for skiing-dependent businesses and government organizations.

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I extend my gratitude to my Ph.D Supervisor, Dr. Dianne Draper. She supported my project proposal from the beginning. I thank Dr. Draper for the time she devoted mentoring and guiding me through some of the rough spots, around mental potholes and past detours that I encountered as I travelled down the road toward a Ph.D. She has been very patient and tolerant with me, and for that I am grateful. Had it not been for her constant and spirited encouragement, I might have packed it in several years ago. I also acknowledge the encouragement of my other committee members: Dr. Bruce Leeson and Dr. Simon Hudson. I worked with Dr. Bruce Leeson many years ago at Parks Canada. When I approached him to be on my committee he agreed without a moment’s hesitation. He thought the project had considerable merit and so agreed to stay with me over the four and half years it has taken. Likewise, Dr. Simon Hudson, formerly of the Haskayne School of Business and now at University of South Carolina, remains on my committee even though he has relocated to U.S.A. He, too, has been a mentor and inspiration for me. I greatly appreciate their support. I had three other committee members who have since moved on: Dr. Lawrence Nkemdirim and Dr. Don Getz have recently retired from the University of Calgary; and Dr. Jeremy Hall has relocated to Simon Fraser University in British Columbia. I thank you all for your guidance during my long journey. I also would like to acknowledge the financial support provided by the Prairie Adaptive Research Collaborative (PARC); and to Parks Canada for providing a research permit that allowed my research to take place in Banff and Jasper National Parks and for covering the cost of camping in the parks while conducting my interviews. Many other coworkers, colleagues and friends, too numerous to mention here, have supported my efforts to complete this degree. To all of you … thanks!

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DEDICATION

As with any major personal undertaking and achievement, there are always special people in the background who deserve recognition. In my case, it is my immediate family. They rode out the highs and lows with me. My family put up with my absence in spirit, if not at times in body, as I sequestered myself away in my office night after night and weekend after weekend for more than four and a half years. I could not ask for a better support unit and cheering section than the one that surrounds me. Thankfully, my journey was made easier with the full support and encouragement of my wife of 37 years, Colleen. She was with me all the way and never complained. She has my love, gratitude and admiration for her undying support and unfailing encouragement. I dedicate this degree to her. Colleen, you have earned it. Likewise, this degree is dedicated to my adult children Ryan and Anni, both of whom know what it is like to pursue a degree or two. They have been on the sidelines cheering my marathon race to the finish line. Every time I threatened to quit, they would pipe up and say “no you’re not!” Their encouragement motivated me.

DMR

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TABLE OF CONTENTS Approval page ii Abstract iii Acknowledgments iv Dedication v Table of contents vi List of figures viii List of tables

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Background and context 5 1.3 Problem statement 9 1.4 Statement of purpose and research questions 10 1.5 Research approach 11 1.6 Study area 13 1.7 Assumptions 16 1.8 Rational and significance 16 1.9 The researcher 18 1.10 Definition of key terminology 18 1.11 Road map of chapters 20

CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Introduction 21 2.2 Climate process in mountain regions 23 2.3 Mountain tourism 27 2.4 Skiing and ski resorts 39 2.5 Climate change in Banff National Park 51 2.6 Economic importance of ski tourism in Banff and Jasper 56 2.7 Chapter summary 68

CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY

3.1 Introduction 71 3.2 Qualitative research design 72 3.3 Vulnerability assessment approach 73 3.4 Grounded theory 74 3.5 Research population 79 3.6 Data collection methods 82 3.7 Data analysis and synthesis 100 3.8 Ethical considerations 104 3.9 Issues of trustworthiness 105 3.10 Summary 106

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CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS

4.1 Introduction 107 4.2 Findings 108 4.3 Chapter summary 148

CHAPTER 5: INTERPRETION OF FINDINGS

5.1 Introduction 150 5.2 Finding 1: Geographical factors index 150 5.3 Finding 2: Climate model Projections 156 5.4 Finding 3: Current ski tourism business vulnerability 161 5.5 Finding 4: Future snow and skiing conditions 165 5.6 Finding 5: Future business vulnerabilities 166 5.7 Summary of answers to research questions 170 5.8 Summary 172

CHAPTER 6: SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 Introduction 173 6.2 Primary conclusion 173 6.3 Conclusions about the future of skiing in Banff and Jasper 174 6.4 Vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses 176 6.5 Recommendations 178 6.6 Recommendations for further research 180

BIBLIOGRAPHY 182

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A Representatives, organizations and businesses interviewed 195 APPENDIX B Interview questions of skiing-dependent businesses 196 APPENDIX C Steps conducting face-to-face interviews 197 APPENDIX D Informed Consent Form for interviewees 199

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LIST OF FIGURES CHAPTER 1

Figure 1.1 Study area 13

CHAPTER 2

Figure 2.1 Literature and research gap between climate change and ski tourism businesses 22 Figure 2.2 Image of on-shore air flow over orographic relief 26 Figure 2.3 Map of Canadian Cordillera in British Columbia and Alberta 26

CHAPTER 3

Figure 3.1 Five stages in a vulnerability assessment approach model 74 Figure 3.2 Location of 24 regional ski resorts in Canadian Cordillera 83 Figure 3.3 Steps in developing and carrying out the interview process 98

CHAPTER 4

Figure 4.1 Data pyramid illustrating the path to the study’s findings, interpretation 107 Figure 4.2 Base/summit elevations of 24 regional ski resorts in Canadian Cordillera 110 Figure 4.3 Long-term trend in Banff town site (1,400 m) mean annual temperatures 114 Figure 4.4 Banff’s annual snowfall since 1938 115 Figure 4.5 Observed versus the modelled daily snow depth (1961 – 1990) at the Banff climate station 116 Figure 4.6 Projected daily average snow depth at Banff in the 2020s (1,600 m) 118 Figure 4.7 Projected daily average snow depth at Banff (1,600 m) in the 2050s 120 Figure 4.8 Projected daily average snow depth at Banff (2,600) m in the 2020s 120 Figure 4.9 Projected daily average snow depth at Banff (2,600 m) in 2050s 121 Figure 4.10 Canada West Ski Areas Profit/Loss by percent of revenue 139

CHAPTER 5

Figure 5.1 Transient snowline and snowfall line 154 Figure 5.2 Projected daily average snow depth at Banff in the 2020s (1,600 m) 157 Figure 5.3 Projected daily average snow depth at Banff in the 2020s (2,600 m) 158 Figure 5.4 Projected daily average snow depth at Banff in the 2050s (1,600 m) 159 Figure 5.5 Projected daily average snow depth at Banff in the 2050s (2,600 m) 160

CHAPTER 6

Figure 6.1 Stages followed to derive the recommendations 173

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LIST OF TABLES CHAPTER 1

Table 1.1 Base/summit elevation for ski resorts in Banff and Jasper National Parks 15

CHAPTER 2

Table 2.1 Beniston (2006) on climate processes in mountain regions 25 Table 2.2 Beniston (2003) on mountain tourism 30 Table 2.3 Bürki et al., (2003) on mountain and ski tourism 33 Table 2.4 Scott (2003) on mountain tourism 35 Table 2.5 Scott (2006a) on mountain tourism 36 Table 2.6 Elsasser and Messerli (2001) on mountain and ski tourism 40 Table 2.7 Breiling and Charamza (1999) on ski resorts 42 Table 2.8 Abegg, et al. (2007) on winter tourism 44 Table 2.9 Scott and McBoyle (2007) on ski industry adaptation to climate change 47 Table 2.10 Moen and Fredman (2007) on skiing in Sweden 50 Table 2.11 Scott and Jones (2005) on the effects of climate change on snow cover and length of ski season in Banff National Park 52 Table 2.12 Contribution of skiing to Banff and Jasper’s winter economy prior to 2000 59 Table 2.13 Average daily overnight skier per person expenditures in Alberta 60 Table 2.14 Reduction in skiable days and total expenditures under the climate scenarios RH-B2 and RE-A2 for 2070 – 2100 61

CHAPTER 3

Table 3.1 Sample of concepts (themes) 78 Table 3.2 Participation versus non-participation in the interviews 81 Table 3.3 Regional ski resorts included in the geographical factors index 83 Table 3.4 Geographical parameters and weighting factors 84 Table 3.5 Template for conducting geographical factors index for ski resorts 85 Table 3.6 Example of managers’ perceptions by concept 101 Table 3.7 Research questions/interview questions matrix 103

CHAPTER 4

Table 4.1 Regional ski resorts included in the geographical factors index 109 Table 4.2 Example of the GFI model rating scheme (for Sunshine Village) 111 Table 4.3 Ski Resort Rating, Ranking and Possible Future Prospects by 2050 112 Table 4.4 Modelled temperature and precipitation change for Banff 115 Table 4.5 Projected changes in annual snowfall in Banff 117 Table 4.6 Projected change in length of ski season at Banff 122 Table 4.7 Projected change in length of ski season at Lake Louise 123 Table 4.8 Coping strategies and tactics deployed during past economic downturns 125 Table 4.9 Current vulnerability: How ski tourism businesses plan for the future 127 Table 4.10 Link between the presence of skiers and skiing-dependent businesses 129

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Table 4.11 Managers’ awareness of future climate effects on skiing and business 131 Table 4.12 How changing snow and temperature in the future affect skiing 133 Table 4.13 Socio-economic impacts to business from long term climate changes 136 Table 4.14 Impact on business from changing climate conditions in the 2020s 140 Table 4.15 Impact on business from changing climate conditions in the 2050s 142 Table 4.16 Adaptive measures, best practices or innovations for implementation 144 Table 4.17 Diffusion of innovation, adaptation and best practices 145

CHAPTER 5

Table 5.1 Top 10 ski resorts in Cordillera with high GFI ratings 151 Table 5.2 Answers to research questions 171

CHAPTER 6

Table 6.1 Conclusion for finding 1 – Geographical factors index 174 Table 6.2 Conclusion for finding 2 – Climate model projections for Banff 175 Table 6.3 Conclusions for finding 3 – Current business vulnerability 176 Table 6.4 Conclusions for finding 4 – Future snow and skiing conditions 177 Table 6.5 Conclusions for finding 5 – Future business vulnerability 178

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CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1.1 INTRODUCTION

The skiing-dependent businesses1 in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Alberta Canada actually may be less socio-economically vulnerable to the long-term effects of climate change than a person might expect. The geographic advantages that exist at the ski resorts in the Canadian Rockies and Eastern British Columbia Interior, and the projected progressive effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions may actually result in a positive rather than a negative socio-economic benefit for skiing- dependent businesses. It is possible the projected effects of climate change in the parks may result in fewer or delayed impacts on snow-reliability, ski season length and average winter temperature conditions than may occur at other ski regions in the Canadian Cordillera2. Provided the number of skiers in the future does not decline below a critical mass enough to eliminate the sport and snowmaking technology continues to enhance snow cover at lower and middle ski slope elevations, the possible result may be an economic bonanza for many skiing-dependent businesses from an increase in market share (i.e., of skiers) in the 2020s and 2050s (Williams and Fidgeon, 2000; Hennessey et al., 2008). The reason for a potential economic bonanza emerging from climate change may be attributed to a combination of topographic, climatic and geographic advantages that the four ski resorts3 in the parks benefit from because of their location in the Canadian Rockies. These advantages include a cold mountain continental climate, geographic continentality4, rugged (steep and high elevation) mountain topography, nearby urban land use, other

1 Skiing-dependent businesses in this study include: ski resorts, ski shops, ski clothing retail, ski shuttle buses, vehicle rentals and accommodations that cater to skiers. Other retail businesses such as restaurants, liquor outlets, B&Bs and other retail stores are not included because they are not necessarily exclusive to skiers and also serve the local population. 2 Canadian Cordillera is the series of mountain ranges north of the 49th Parallel in the Provinces of Alberta and British Columbia bordered on the east by the Canadian Rockies in the Province of Alberta westward through the Province of British Columbia to the Coastal Mountains adjacent to the Pacific Ocean on the west. 3 The four ski resorts are: Sunshine Village, Lake Louise and Mount Norquay in Banff, and Marmot Basin in Jasper. 4 Continentality refers to the location relative to distance from a major moisture source, such as the Pacific Ocean, and elevation on a continental land surface.

2 physiographic and urban infrastructure features5. Not all other ski resort locations within the Canadian Cordillera include these same geographic advantages. The physical and climatic conditions in the Canadian Rockies may be a fusion of conditions that are conducive to delaying and buffering the progression of the various effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions, particularly at lower elevations. Winter presents conditions in the parks that are not only ideal for the four ski resorts in the parks, but also for the other ski tourism businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks that depend upon the presence of skiers. Rather than being more vulnerable to future changing socio- economic conditions, the skiing-dependent businesses, possibly through no deliberate mitigative actions of their own, actually may be less socio-economically vulnerable than expected to the effects of climate change. Other ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera, particularly those located at lower elevation and in closer proximity to the moderating influence of the moist Pacific Ocean, may not be as fortunate as the ski resorts in the Central and Western British Columbia (B.C.) Interior and in the Canadian Rockies (i.e., Banff and Jasper National Parks). The ski resorts at low elevation and close to the coastal influences may not possess the natural climatic, topographic and geographic conditions that the ski resorts in the parks do to delay the increasing effects of a warmer climate. These other ski resorts may not be able to manage their vulnerability and risks from climate change in quite the same way as the ski resorts in the B.C. Interior and the parks. By the 2020s and 2050s, the consequence for some ski resorts and skiing-dependent businesses in the Canadian Cordillera may be to find themselves in economic circumstances, such as those currently being experienced by some ski regions in the European Alps, that they need to close permanently or reduce operations on a year-by-year basis depending upon inter-annual snow conditions. The geographical advantages6 and natural climatic conditions found in Banff and Jasper National Parks may be just part of the reason that Sunshine Village, Lake Louise, Mount Norquay and Marmot Basin ski resorts may be fortunate enough to be able to

5 Refers to the physiographic features and wide valleys and a safe highway and access road network. 6 The geographic advantages the parks have over other skiing regions in the Canadian Cordillera include being located far from the effect of the moist Pacific Ocean, high mountain ranges, steep angular peaks and a cold mountain continental climate. Additional geographic advantages are described in chapter 3.

3 continue operating and attracting large numbers of local, regional and destination skiers at a time when other regional ski resorts may be struggling to remain viable. The ability to continue operations also may be affected positively by being geographically close to a major urban centre and airport. Being close to an airport may seem trivial, but large numbers of skiers arrive in Vancouver and Calgary from Eastern Canada, U.K., Europe and America and many other points of departure. Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver International Airports are viewed by tour organizations and independent skiers as gateways to world-class skiing in Whistler and Banff and Jasper National Parks. Since many other skiing regions around the world (i.e., Australia and the European Alps) are already beginning to experience the early-stage effects of climate change ahead of the Canadian Rockies, this direct and easy access to skiing is a critical dimension for many skiers wanting to travel from abroad. Many ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera are not currently served by major airports that can receive large aircraft. In the future, opportunities for day-skiing in the Canadian Cordillera may be fewer than today causing those who can afford to ski to travel greater distances to participate. One of the few operational ski areas likely remaining in Canada by the 2050s may be the high elevation ski resorts in the parks and some other high elevation regional ski resorts, such as Whistler/Blackcomb on the coast and several Interior British Columbia ski resorts. If skiers, like golfers, begin travelling greater distances to ski in the future, then all other factors being held constant, skiing-dependent businesses in the parks could see an increase rather than a decrease in business as early as the 2020s and most certainly by the 2050s. If business improves for skiing-dependent businesses in the parks in the future, then that may result in a reversal from a negative to a positive potential socio-economic vulnerability for skiing-dependent businesses. Ironically, the reversal of socio-economic fortunes for skiing- dependent businesses in the future may not be as a direct result of adaptation or any business decisions the skiing-dependent businesses may have taken on their own. Their continued operation simply may be a matter of supply, demand and location – the classic fundamentals of business success. Several skiing-dependent business operators in the parks whom I interviewed indicated they have a hunch (i.e., business intuition), contrary to common belief by others

4 in the ski tourism industry, that the effects of climate change on snow and temperature conditions in the parks may actually prove to be a positive rather than a negative benefit for skiing and skiing-dependent businesses. For instance, George Schwarz at the Post Hotel, based purely on his business intuition and many years in the hotel business in Lake Louise, foresees a greater shift in the regional skier market share to the parks in the 2020s and 2050s. George Schwarz and two other business operators opined that some regional ski resorts may find it necessary to delay opening, not open at all, or reduce operations to weekends because of poor snow cover conditions and a lack of skiers. Skiers who would normally ski at these ski resorts, if they continue to ski, may begin to seek out other ski resorts where there is reliable snow cover and high quality skiing. Based on climate model projections (Scott and Jones, 2005), it is possible the ski resorts in the parks may be among only a small number of ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera still operational in the 2050s. In a market place with shifting demographics and possibly declining numbers of skiers, the fewer the number of ski resorts competing for market share the greater the potential market share for the remaining ski resorts. The irony of that scenario is that should the projection prove to be accurate, notwithstanding a possible decline in the number of skiers in the future, it is possible the skiing-dependent businesses in the parks may not be able to handle the potential volume of visitors because of a projected lack of hotel accommodations (i.e., hotel beds). Ski slopes, too, may well become over crowded. The spillover of visitors from the parks may be a benefit to businesses in Canmore, Golden, Radium Hot Springs, Invermere, Valemont and Hinton. This scenario is pure conjecture, but not beyond the realm of possibility. Following sections of this chapter include: background and context; rationale and significance of my research; problem statement; purpose; and my research questions. I also have included a description of the study area and some discussion related to the research approach, my assumptions, and a brief description of my personal perspective and professional background. I conclude the chapter with definitions of key terminology and the outline of the remaining chapters in the dissertation.

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1.2 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT

1.2.1 Background

The literature on the science, impacts and mitigation of climate change (i.e., “global warming”) is extensive; however, there is limited literature available regarding mountain, winter and ski tourism. Only during the past two decades have academic and government researchers begun to examine how climate change may have collateral socio-economic effects on commerce and business, particularly businesses related to snow sports and winter tourism. My study examines the potential effects that climate change may have on the socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent tourism businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks. The investigation is inter-disciplinary in scope in that the study blends elements of the socio-economics of business with physiography, the science of climate change and the geography of climate. My study investigates how geographical factors combine with business adaptive capacity to play an important role in determining socio- economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses not only in the parks but also for other regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. Much has been said in the public media and reported in scholarly journals about the potential long-term effects of climate change on the physical environment from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (i.e., global warming). Some of the public reporting and continuing debate on the issue of climate change boils down to personal opinion often formed with no basis in science or fact. My study does not address the science of climate change, but rather the indirect effects that climate change may have on businesses that depend on the climatic status quo. The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, has published four major assessment reports7 that document the combined thoughts and concerns of approximately 2,200 climate scientists about what may occur during the next century to the physical environment from increased greenhouse gas emissions and a warming global climate.

7 IPCC Assessment Reports are dated: 1990, 1996 (for 1995), 2001 and 2007.

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1.2.2 Context

Most tourism businesses are based around some appealing feature or activity; in some cases that feature is a location’s climate (e.g., sun and surf; skiing and snow in mountains), or a physical feature (e.g., mountains, waterfalls, canyons/valleys or forests). If the climate of a tourism location changes, then it is possible the tourism businesses built up around the tourism features may need to adapt to the changes or to close. Climate change may have a greater impact on specific tourism businesses, such as ski tourism, than on other tourism businesses. Mountain tourism, like so many other tourism sectors, not only needs to contend with external forces beyond their control, such as market forces, geopolitical turmoil, medical issues like SARS or H1N1, but also needs to adapt to changes to the physical environment upon which the business may be based. Such is the case for tourism businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks, which slowly are losing some of the very natural features, such as mountain glaciers and snow-capped peaks that make the parks a world renowned tourist destination. It has been suggested that mountain tourism businesses, such as those related to snow sports like skiing, may experience possible negative effects from climate change sooner and possibly to a greater extent than other tourism businesses, whether they be on flatland or coastal regions (Abegg et al. 2007; Agrawala, 2007; Barry, 1994; Beniston, 1997, 2003, 2006; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; Bürki et al. 2003a, 2003b; Elsasser and Bürki, 2002; Elsasser and Messerli, 2001; Moen and Fredman, 2007; Scott, 2003; Scott, 2006a, 2006b; Scott and Jones, 2005). These researchers suggest that the effects of climate change may not occur equally or over the same timeframe across the mountain landscapes of the world. For example, mountain regions of Europe may already be experiencing some of the greatest effects of climate change to date. The effects may be felt early in low valley elevations adjacent to large moisture sources based on lateral and horizontal temperature and precipitation gradients. It is likely that the mountain zone least likely to experience the warming effects of climate change may be the shaded side of mid and high elevation mountain locations located on continental landmasses where solar radiation is less intense and ambient air temperatures are consistently at or below freezing. These types of high mountain environments are the most suitable locations for developing ski areas (Abegg et

7 al. 2007; Agrawala, 2007; Beniston, 2003, 2006; Beniston et al. 1997; and Scott and Jones, 2005). Alpine (i.e., ‘downhill’) skiing8 is acknowledged by Scott and Jones (2005), Moen and Fredman (2007), Beniston (1997, 2003, 2006), Bürki et al. (2003a, 2003b) as being a recreational activity that may be faced with serious decline in the next few decades, partly as a result of changing demographics and partly as a result of the effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions at ski resorts. If reductions in total snow cover and warm temperatures affect local ski hills and regional ski resorts, as is apparently beginning to happen in the European Alps, then the viability of skiing in some areas of the world may be in jeopardy of collapsing in as short a period of time as the next few decades. If ski resorts cannot open or operate fully during at least 100 days (i.e., the 100 day rule followed in Europe) each winter, then the skiing-dependent businesses may also not be profitable and subsequently close down or reduce operations. The skiing-dependent businesses may have to close their doors because of the symbiotic relationship that exists with the ski resorts. Some research has been conducted to examine the effects of climate change on snow and temperatures at ski resorts (Beniston, 2006; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; Bürki et al. 2003a; Moen and Fredman, 2007), but to date nothing appears to have been done to examine businesses that depend on the presence of skiers. That is the subject of my study. My contention (i.e., belief and argument) that skiing is a major economic force in Banff and Jasper National Parks (because it attracts local, regional and destination skiers), was confirmed through my personal communications with senior officials at Parks Canada, Travel Alberta, Banff Lake Louise Tourism Bureau, local municipal officials and many of the skiing-dependent business operators in the parks who all agreed that skiing is the principal activity supporting the winter economy in the parks. If I were to consider a scenario where climate change caused ski resorts in the parks to close, then what activity would fill the economic void left behind by the skiers? Other than a few non-snow sport activities, such as business conferences, romantic getaways and hockey tournaments

8 The use of the term “skiing” in this report includes alpine or downhill skiing and snow boarding. It does not include Nordic or cross-country skiing. My research does not address Nordic skiing.

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(Harold X. and S. Best, personal communication, 20069), nothing for the foreseeable future can fill the void if skiing in the parks collapsed. Thus, skiing today and in the future is an important economic driver of the park’s winter economy. A more likely scenario that possibly could occur by the 2050s is that if skiing continued to flourish in the parks while other ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera declined or closed from the effects of climate change, then there may be a shift in the market share from the closed resorts to the remaining ski resorts. Such a shift in market share could result in a possible increase in the number of skiers to the parks from other regions. Compared to what I originally thought the possible result of climate change would be – a drop in skiing activity and a loss of business – this latter scenario would be a reversal of fortunes for skiing-dependent businesses in the parks. An influx of skiers from other regions and other countries may result in potential crowding conditions on the ski slopes and in the hotels. A few skiing-dependent business operators say they would like to see that happen (S. Best, G. Schwarz10 and John X11, personal communications, 2006). Each winter many thousands of skiers descend upon Banff and Jasper National Parks for the pure thrill and enjoyment of a Canadian Rockies skiing experience. Skiers come from around the world to the parks to enjoy some of the world’s most attractive natural areas with the highest elevations, longest vertical drops, high quality (champagne) powder skiing conditions and some of the most challenging ski slopes found in only a few other ski resorts in Western Canada. Approximately 30% of all skiers at Sunshine Village Ski Resort are destination skiers arriving from such locations as the U.S.A., Eastern Canada, U.K., Japan, Australia and Europe. The other 70% are local and regional (Alberta and British Columbia) skiers (John X12, pers. comm., 2006). For Whistler/Blackcomb, the ratio is reversed (John X, pers. comm., 2006). The operators in the mountain parks would like to see that situation reversed in their favour.

9 Harold X, a pseudonym, requested anonymity. To establish credibility this person is a senior representative of a large hotel in the parks; Sandy Best is General Manager Banff Ave Inn and indicated he was former Vice President, Marketing for Resorts of the Canadian Rockies at Lake Louise Ski Resort. 10 George Schwarz is the long-time owner/operator of the Post Hotel in Lake Louise. 11 Participants who requested anonymity have been given a nom de plume that in no way is similar to or identifiable with the individual. 12 John X, a pseudonym, requested anonymity during the interview. To establish credibility, this person is a senior representative of a ski resort in the parks.

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If the ski resorts in the mountain parks remain in full operation in the 2050s while other ski resorts in the region and elsewhere around North America close down or operate on a hit-and-miss basis, then the effects of climate change elsewhere will be seen as a bonus rather than a negative for the parks. But, if the effects of climate change affect all ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera equally, then all ski resorts in the 2050s may close or operate only on a hit-and-miss basis from year to year as snow conditions allow. In that case, there will be no operational advantages for the resorts in the parks. That may mean skiing as a winter sport may die out slowly – a sunset recreational sport. The more likely scenario is that notwithstanding the minor effects of a warming climate the ski resorts in the parks may be able to maintain a reasonably high quality snow cover condition, supplemented with snowmaking that will allow them to operate in the 2020s and 2050s and attract skiers in greater numbers from around the world.

1.3 PROBLEM STATEMENT

Little research has been undertaken to date to assess what the socio-economic effects of climate change may be on business, particularly businesses such as ski tourism that depend for their existence on specific climatic conditions in the environment. Recent research suggests that the effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions are impacting on ski resorts, particularly in the European Alps (Abegg et al. 2007; Agrawala, 2007a and 2007b; Beniston, 1997, 2003, 2006; Beniston et al. 2003, 2004; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; Elsasser and Bürki, 2020; Elsasser and Messerli, 2001). Thus, if ski resorts are being impacted, then so too will be the businesses that depend largely upon ski resorts to attract skiers who, in turn, are the prime source of revenue for skiing-dependent businesses. Although the effects of climate change are just another of many external factors that ski tourism businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks and elsewhere around the world need to cope with in the future, this force of Nature must not be ignored because of the potential collateral socio-economic effects on business. It is possible that some ski resorts and the associated skiing-dependent businesses in the Canadian Cordillera may be more vulnerable to the socio-economic effects from climate change than other ski resorts and ski tourism businesses. The question I am seeking

10 an answer to is whether or not skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks are more or less vulnerable in the 2020s and 2050s to being ‘blind-sided’ by the potentially changing socio-economic conditions that may emerge from the growing effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions. My research revealed an answer that was unexpected.

1.4 STATEMENT OF PURPOSE AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS

1.4.1 Statement of Purpose

The purpose of this multi-phase study was to explore with 60 skiing-dependent business operators in Banff and Jasper National Parks what their perceptions are about the potential long-term socio-economic impacts that climate change may have on their businesses in the 2020s and 2050s. I needed to learn what they know about the climate change phenomenon and what the implications are to business. And, I needed to learn how the businesses have coped with economic downturns in the past from poor ski seasons; how they would cope with any negative or positive impacts on skiing in the future; and what mechanisms they may use to mitigate possible effects that may damage the socio-economic stability of their businesses. With this understanding I may be able to judge whether or not the skiing-dependent businesses in the parks are more or less vulnerable to the long-term socio-economic effects of climate change.

1.4.2 Research Questions

To better understand my research problem, and in line with the purpose of my study, the following research questions are addressed:

1. How do the four ski resorts in the parks compare with the other 20 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera when each is judged and rated against 14 topographic, climatic and geographic factors common to each resort?

2. How may snow cover, temperature conditions and ski season length suitable for skiing at the four ski resorts in the parks today change in the 2020s and 2050s?

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3. What level of awareness and foresight do managers of skiing-dependent businesses have about the potential physical changes that climate change may cause at ski resorts and the socio-economic effects that may cause to other skiing-dependent businesses in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s?

4. What may be the socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks to the potential impacts of climate change on snow cover, temperatures and season length at the four ski resorts in the 2020s and 2050s?

Research question 4 can be addressed only after questions 1 to 3 are considered.

1.5 RESEARCH APPROACH

The overriding methodological framework for my research was a five-stage vulnerability assessment model based on Natural Resources Canada’s (2004) “vulnerability assessment tool”, which I employed in conjunction with grounded theory (Charmaz, 2006; Glaser, 1992; Glaser and Strauss, 1967; Strauss and Corbin, 1998) as a qualitative research tradition. By using this research approach, I was able to gather suitable data from multiple sources and stakeholders that enabled me to judge the level of socio-economic vulnerability that the skiing-dependent businesses in the parks have with respect to the effects that climate change may have on snow and temperature conditions in the 2020s and 2050s. The complex nature of my study prevented me from achieving a full triangulation of my data. My approach to this study involved analyzing, synthesizing and interpreting data from two primary data-gathering phases of research, supplemented with data from climate model output and economic analysis of the importance of skiing in Banff and Jasper National Parks and in Western Canada. With the University of Calgary’s Conjoint Faculties Research Ethics Board (CFREB) approval, the first phase of my study involved conducting interviews with managers of skiing-dependent businesses, federal, provincial and municipal government officials; representatives at Travel Alberta and tourism marketing agencies in the parks. Data obtained from the interviews with 60 skiing-dependent business managers are

12 included as primary data for this study. The remaining interviews provided supplementary information only, such as background information and the context necessary for me to understand and carry out my inquiry. Interviews with senior managers of skiing-dependent businesses were designed to learn what their individual level of knowledge and understanding was about the future effects of climate change, and in what ways their business may cope with future socio-economic changes. This helped me assess whether these people, as individual business managers or as a group, have the adaptive capacity to proactively adjust their business models and operational strategies to cope with the potential positive or negative socio-economic effects that climate change may cause in the 2020s and 2050s. The second primary data collection phase was the creation of the geographical factors index (GFI), which I developed specifically for my study. The GFI examined the 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera and compared the four ski resorts in Banff and Jasper National Parks against the 20 other regional ski resorts based on 14 topographic, climatic and geographic attributes common to all 24 resorts. The index provided a ‘level playing field’ for comparison. The results of the GFI help to quantitatively rate and then rank the regional ski resorts in descending order from highest to lowest rank. The results of the GFI indicated how the four ski resorts in the parks compared with the other regional ski resorts based solely on the 14 attributes. The GFI assessment helped establish which ski resorts benefit most from natural climatic, physiographic and geographic conditions that when taken together may help delay or buffer the effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions over the 2020s and 2050s. The first supplementary data review phase was an in-depth examination of a report by Scott and Jones (2005) about the potential effects climate change may have in Banff in the 2020s and the 2050s. This phase involved an in-depth review and analysis of Scott and Jones’ climate models to project possible climate scenarios for Banff and Lake Louise in three time periods: 2020, 2050 and 2080. Only the time periods 2020 and 2050 are included in my study because of the uncertainty associated with the 2080 model information. The second supplementary data review phase was an assessment of the economic importance of skiing in the Canadian Cordillera. This involved reviewing a number of

13 socio-economic reports and data sets prepared by the Alberta government and by the Canada West Ski Areas Association.

1.6 STUDY AREA

The geographic location selected to study the socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses is Banff and Jasper National Parks, Alberta Canada (Figure 1.1). A total of 60 interviews were conducted with skiing-dependent business operators in the parks. Separate interviews were held with government officials and tourism marketing agencies in Calgary, Edmonton, Banff and Jasper National Parks. These latter interviews are not included in the study because they served solely as background information and context. The geographical factors index (GFI) examined 24 regional ski resorts, all of which are located in the southern half of British Columbia and Alberta. More details about the location of the 24 regional ski resorts are found in chapter 3. As National Parks, Banff and Jasper are closely regulated business environments unlike those found outside the parks in the Provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. The businesses operating within Banff and Jasper National Parks are regulated by three orders of government: Parks Canada (under the National Parks Act and Regulations), Government of Alberta and by municipal bodies (Towns of Banff and Jasper and Hamlet of Lake Louise). Banff and Jasper National Parks are located in the Canadian Rockies east of the

Figure 1.1: Study area is Jasper, Lake Louise Continental Divide (Figure 1.1). Banff has and Banff Townsites within Banff and Jasper contiguous boundaries with not only Jasper National Parks. The ski resorts include: Sunshine Village, Lake Louise, Marmot on the north, but also Kootenay and Yoho Basin and Mount Norquay. National Parks in British Columbia on the

14 west. Together they straddle the Continental Divide and are referred to collectively as the Four Mountain Parks. The Mountain Parks are home to several major ice-fields (e.g., Columbia, Wapta and Waputik) and glaciers (e.g., Peyto and Athabasca), which exist among some of the highest mountain peaks in the Canadian Rockies. I have personally worked or walked on all of the icefields and glaciers mentioned. The Canadian Rockies, the youngest of all the mountain ranges in the Cordillera at approximately 60 million years since uplift (Eyles and Miall, 2007), form the eastern margin of the Canadian Cordillera. The Canadian Rockies are the northern extension into Canada of the larger and longer North American Rocky Mountain system, which forms the easternmost part of the more massive and extensive North American Cordillera in the U.S.A., a continuous series of mountain ranges lining the length of the western margin of the North American continent. The Continental Divide in the Canadian Rockies defines not only the jurisdictional boundary between Alberta and British Columbia, but also the river drainage systems. On the eastside of the Divide water flows eastward toward Hudson’s Bay or northward to the Arctic Ocean along the Mackenzie River system. Rivers on the west side of the Divide flow to the Pacific Ocean. The Canadian Rockies lie approximately 800 kilometres from the coast of the Pacific Ocean. Most often the weather systems (i.e., storm tracks) that deposit snow on the mountain peaks and valleys in the Rockies originate from weather systems developed over the moist Pacific Ocean that subsequently track inland along the shifting jet stream. Weather systems affecting the parks may come from any direction, but most often directly from the west, north or south or some variation depending on the path of the jet stream. The winter climate in the parks is a cold and dry mountain continental climate while the summers are typically warm to hot and moderately dry. Winter snow cover in the parks is relatively dry (i.e., light) compared to wetter snow cover in mountain ranges further west in the Golden, Revelstoke and coastal regions. A large portion of the annual precipitation in the Canadian Rockies occurs during the winter as snow, particularly at higher elevations, because of below freezing temperatures. Rain at low elevations during the winter is not

15 unheard of. The parks also are influenced by Chinook conditions, which occur frequently during the winter, bringing with it warm temperatures and dry13 winds. Geologically, the jagged mountain peaks in the parks are the remnants from the continuous effects over approximately 60 millions years of tectonic uplift and erosion (Eyles and Miall, 2007). The surface geomorphology has been greatly influenced by multiple major glacial events. Although not the highest peaks found in Canada14, the mountains in Banff and Jasper National Parks boast several summit elevations well above the 3,300 m15 or 11,000 feet elevation. Mount Robson in Mount Robson Provincial Park in British Columbia is located along the west side of the Continental Divide near Jasper National Park at 3,954 m (12,972 feet) and is the highest point in the Canadian Rockies. Mount Columbia at the Columbia Icefield in Jasper National Park is the highest point in Alberta at 3,747 m (12,293 feet). Mount Temple near Lake Louise in Banff National Park is 3,543 m (11,624 feet) and the highest peak near the Lake Louise ski resort area in Banff. The base and summit elevations of each of the four ski resorts in the parks are found in Table 1.1. The base of operations for all four ski resorts is above 1,600 m and the summit of three of the four resorts is above 2,600 m.

Table 1.1: Base and summit elevations for ski resorts in Banff and Jasper

SKI RESORT BASE ELEVATIONS SUMMIT ELEVATIONS Sunshine Village, Banff 1,660 m 2,730 m Lake Louise, Banff 1646 m 2,607 m Marmot Basin, Jasper 1,697 m 2,612 m Mount Norquay, Banff 1,636 m 2,133 m

13 Chinook is falsely claimed by popular mythology in Alberta and Montana and similar inland areas to mean "snow-eater" but it is really the name of a people in the region where the usage was first derived. The reference to a wind or weather system, simply "a Chinook", originally meaning a warming wind from the ocean into the interior regions of the Pacific Northwest (the Chinook people lived near the ocean, along the lower Columbia River). Source: Wikipedia. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinook_wind). 14 The highest mountain in Canada is Mount Logan in the Yukon and the highest mountain in British Columbia is Mt. Waddington in northwest B.C. 15 All elevations are indicated as “m” for metres above sea level. Only “m” will be used in this dissertation.

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1.7 ASSUMPTIONS

As a researcher in any research project would do, I made some assumptions. Based on my personal and 40-year professional background, I made three primary assumptions at the outset of this study. Firstly, I made the assumption that climate change is real and changes are starting to occur in the parks as projected by climate models. Secondly, I assumed that other externalities affecting ski tourism businesses in the parks, such as management ability, financial solvency, market forces and other similar local and regional factors are held constant. It is clear to me that these other external factors are not constant and that the effects of climate change may be just another impact on the socio-economic sustainability of skiing-dependent businesses in the future. Nonetheless I considered these factors to be static. Thirdly, I made the assumption that the climate model scenarios produced by Scott and Jones (2005) are reasonably accurate representations, based on Environment Canada weather data, of what conditions may be projected to occur in climate scenarios 2020 and 2050. Scott and Jones (2005) climate scenarios for 2020 and 2050 have a high degree of plausibility and, in my mind are suitably credible for inclusion in my study. This is explained in chapter 3. Obviously, the ski resorts are dependent upon receiving good reliable snow cover and cool temperatures to create good skiing conditions that will attract skiers so the resort will have a long and profitable ski season. I assumed that other skiing-dependent businesses in the parks understood that they are in a nearly total co-dependent or symbiotic relationship with the ski resorts to attract business (i.e., skiers). I also assumed the skiing- dependent businesses recognized the direct link between their business success (all other factors held constant) and the success of the ski season. I also assumed that the vast majority of skiing-dependent businesses had not considered or factored into their business plans the changes that may need to be made to business operations in the future to accommodate potential socio-economic alterations resulting from climate change.

1.8 RATIONALE AND SIGNIFICANCE

The rationale for my study comes from my personal interest in learning whether or not managers of skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks are aware

17 of the potential impacts that could befall their businesses in the future if they are not watchful. It would be a good thing and certainly advantageous to these small businesses to not be ‘blind-sided’ and left vulnerable in the future to the socio-economic impacts resulting from climate change on snow and temperatures. Before conducting the research, my estimation was that skiing-dependent businesses went about their business from day-to- day without any real recognition that climate change may be hanging over their heads and could lead to a serious socio-economic jolt to their business in the future if they are not suitably prepared. I suspected that most skiing-dependent businesses in the parks had not tuned in to what the potential ramifications of the effects of climate change may be on business and commerce. They can hardly be faulted for having taken that position given the on-going public debate and the lengthy timeframe over which these socio-economic impacts may begin occurring. Still, I felt it was necessary for someone to examine the issue with the businesses that are most likely to be impacted; and in the process, I hoped to raise awareness and possibly open some minds about why and how the businesses need to start thinking about and planning for the potential long-term impacts from climate change on businesses in the parks. My initial belief may have arisen because I was ill-informed, possibly even a naïve, bystander. My efforts to raise awareness about the socio-economic vulnerability of skiing- dependent businesses to climate change may be in vain, but I at least made an effort to raise the alarm. Then again, if only a small amount of my effort to raise awareness has rubbed off on a business person, I may have made a contribution that has benefit for the entire ski tourism industry in the parks and possibly well beyond the boundaries of Banff and Jasper National Parks. If that happens, then I will have accomplished my goal. I would like to believe that I made a significant contribution. I will know I made an impact when in the future at least one skiing-dependent business has accounted for the possible socio-economic effects on its business model.

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1.9 THE RESEARCHER

Since my biases and assumptions have a bearing on my inquiry, I should point out that I have more than 40 years of work experience in the environmental and geoscience disciplines, including experience in climate change, business administration, oil and gas research, and parks and recreation planning and operations. During my early years, I worked for Environment Canada Glaciology Division conducting a mass balance study on the Wapta and Waputik Icefield and Peyto Glacier in Banff National Park. I worked for Parks Canada as a Park Warden in Kootenay and Yoho National Parks making weather observations and conducting a 2-year long water resources inventory of Yoho. In addition, I worked as the Assistant Resource Studies Manager for Parks Canada supervising terrestrial and biological studies. I am a registered Professional Geoscientist (P.Geo) at the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of British Columbia; and I am a life-long skiing enthusiast who has skied at or visited half of the 24 regional ski resorts in the Cordillera.

1.10 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMINOLOGY

Climate – Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather,” or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period of time ranging from months to thousands of years. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system (IPCC, 2001).

Climate change – Climate change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity (IPCC, 2001). The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) defines climate change as: “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

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Climate model – A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for all or some of its known properties (IPCC, 2001).

Climate projections – A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate models (IPCC, 2001).

Climate scenarios – A plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships, that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change, often serving as input to impact models. A ‘climate change scenario’ is the difference between a climate scenario and the current climate (IPCC, 2001).

Geographical factors index – A model designed to compare 14 topographic, climatic and geographic attributes at the 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. The index allows the 24 resorts to be quantitatively compared, rated and ranked according to the strength of the attributes.

Reliable snowline (snow reliability line) – Refers to the boundary between a totally snow- covered surface and a bare surface at any given time of year. The snowline, which is not actually a ‘line’ but more a zone, is continuously changing (rising and falling in elevation) depending upon temperature and weather conditions throughout the winter season and over the year. At certain times during the year, the snowline may be near sea level during winter months in some locations or on the highest mountain slopes during the summer. It is the lower topographic limit of the permanent or early winter season snow cover. The snowline has been equated to the equilibrium line on glaciers. Depending on the aspect of a mountain slope, the snow line can vary greatly in altitude (source: Ostrem, 1974).

Skiing-dependent businesses – Businesses in Banff and Jasper that primarily cater to skiers and includes: ski resorts, ski rental/sales retail shops, skier/winter clothing retail shops, accommodations (except B&Bs and Private Home Accommodations/PHAs), vehicle rental

20 agencies, and ski shuttle buses. Other business, such as restaurants and pubs, are not included because they provide services for local residents as well as well as skiers.

Snowfall level - Related to the snowline is the snowfall level, which is the altitude above sea level at which the precipitation type that is deposited on the ground surface changes from rain to snow. The snowfall level is usually about 300 m lower than the freezing level. During heavy precipitation or in closed valleys the snowfall level can be between 300 and 600 m below the freezing level (www.wa.slf.ch/glossary_e.pdf) accessed July 1, 2008.

Vulnerability – The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2001).

1.11 ROADMAP OF CHAPTERS

The subsequent chapters in this dissertation are as follows: Chapter 2 is the literature review that introduces material related to the effects climate change may be having on mountain environments, mountain tourism and ski tourism. I also examine the economic value and effects of climate change on skiing in this chapter. Chapter 3 is the methodology chapter, which describes the vulnerability assessment approach, grounded theory tradition and the specific methods I followed to develop the interviews, the economic assessment and the creation and deployment of the Geographical Factors Index. Chapter 3 also describes the review and interpretation of climate models for 2020 and 2050 developed by Scott and Jones (2005). Chapter 4 presents the five findings that answer my four research questions; chapter 5 interprets these findings. Chapter 6 provides the conclusions and recommends possible actions by different agencies and organizations, and explores possible future research opportunities.

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CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 INTRODUCTION

My literature review includes articles from various print media, selected websites, newspapers, Internet searches, textbooks and related publications, and journals. In particular I focus on peer-reviewed scholarly literature related to climatic processes and impacts in mountain regions, on mountain tourism, skiing and ski resorts, and climate change in Banff National Park. I also examined key government and ski industry reports and data sources that investigate the economic value and importance of ski tourism in the Canadian Cordillera, particularly in Banff and Jasper National Parks. This literature helped me to assess whether or not climate change is beginning to have an effect on various elements of the natural environment, such as snow cover and temperature conditions, that may result in collateral socio-economic effects on the vulnerability and economic well- being of skiing-dependent businesses, particularly in Banff and Jasper. Most scholarly publications on the effects of climate change on tourism, particularly on winter tourism, dated from the mid 1990s. Because interest in climate change on tourism, particularly ski tourism, is recent the scholarly literature is limited. Current interest in climate change on ski tourism may reflect the global climate science research community’s focus on the science, impacts and mitigation of climate change rather than on assessment of the collateral effects or ramifications of a changing climate on the socio- economic vulnerability of businesses dependent upon the climate. Much of the existing tourism literature related to the effects of climate change is published by a small number of tourism academic researchers, graduate students and government researchers working in Australia, Canada, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K., and U.S.A. Two tourism research centres that are focused on climate effects on mountain and ski-tourism stand out from other tourism research centres around the world. One centre is located in Central Europe and the other in Eastern Canada. The names of authors often cited in literature on the effect of climate change on ski tourism include: Abegg, Beniston, Breiling, Bürki, Charamza and Elsasser in Europe; and McBoyle, Scott and Wall in Eastern Canada. Key literature sources identified that the current views, concepts, theories and research emphasis are on

22 the potential effects that climate change may have on mountain regions and snow sport activities. The literature also confirmed how economically important skiing is to the ski resorts and communities in the Canadian Cordillera, particularly in Banff and Jasper National Parks. Knowledge gained from the literature and my field research, combined with my 40 years of professional experience, helped me to judge whether or not ski resorts and skiing- dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper were potentially more or less vulnerable to the effects of climate change on snow cover and temperatures in the Canadian Cordillera. My review of the literature helped identify a narrow gap (Figure 2.1) in the research literature, namely the relationship that exists between the effects of climate change on the physical environment and the effects that could potentially impact on skiing-dependent businesses. The research gap separates literature related to the hard science and the biophysical effects of climate change on one side from literature related to examination of the socio-economic effects of climate change on skiing and ski tourism businesses on the other.

Figure 2.1: Literature and research gap between climate change and ski tourism businesses

Literature on Physical Literature on

Effects of Climate Change on Socio-Economics of Skiing- Research Snow Cover and Temperature Dependent Tourism Gap Conditions Businesses ‘The Climate Scientists’ ‘The Business people’

Only a small number of tourism-oriented researchers have attempted to bridge the research gap by considering in their research how the effects of a changing climate may result in impacts on socio-economic systems, but none of these researchers specifically focused on mountain tourism and ski tourism businesses. My study bridges the research gap and contributes original research to inform how skiing-dependent tourism businesses in the Canadian Cordillera, specifically in Banff and Jasper National Parks, may be impacted by climate change in the 2020s and 2050s. In order to develop the geographical factors index (GFI), it was necessary to amass information and knowledge about 14 geographic, climatic and topographic factors common

23 to all 24 regional ski resorts located in the Canadian Cordillera. The information I sought was found in various print-media sources, current resort brochures and websites for each of the ski resorts. I developed the GFI specifically for this study; details about the GFI are found in chapter 3. In this chapter I review material related to five key areas: climate processes in mountain regions; mountain tourism; effects of climate on skiing and ski resorts; climate change in Banff National Park; and economic importance of skiing.

2.2 CLIMATE PROCESSES IN MOUNTAIN REGIONS

Mountain regions serve as an ideal real-time living laboratory for researchers because mountains are deemed to be more sensitive and responsive to the effects of climate change than are other continental regions (Abegg et al. 2007; Beniston, 2003; Scott, 2003, 2006a). As a result, mountains are ideal locations to monitor changes to the biophysical environment, especially snow cover and temperature conditions. It is also possible to monitor the direct effects climate change may have on the social and economic systems (i.e., businesses) that depend on tourists visiting mountain regions (Abler et al., 2000). Even though each mountain region in the world is unique, several characteristic features are common. Even within a mountain region, such as the European Alps or the Canadian Cordillera, there are differences from one mountain range to another. Two common characteristics shared among all mountain regions are topographic or orographic relief with accompanying steep temperature gradients with increased elevation (Beniston, 2006). The steep temperature gradient profile affects the precipitation regime over short vertical and horizontal distances. Simply stated, as an air mass is forced to flow over a mountain range, the temperature of the air cools at the wet adiabatic lapse rate (if the air mass is moving off a large moisture source such as an ocean) to the point where the dew point temperature is reached and condensation (i.e., clouds) forms followed thereafter by precipitation. Precipitation could be in the form of rain if the temperature is above freezing or as snow if the temperature is at or below freezing. Considerable literature addresses the hard science and biophysical effects that a changing climate may have on mountain regions (for example: IPCC 2001a, 2001b and

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2007). Beniston (2006), a Swiss researcher examining the effects of climate on tourism, addresses a part of the gap seen in Figure 2.1 by providing a succinct overview about how mountain climate processes are beginning to influence tourism in the European Alps. Beniston acknowledges that the effects of climate change already may be adversely impacting mountain environments and mountain tourism. Beniston (2006) identifies four major physical factors that help to control mountain climates, namely: continentality, latitude, altitude and topography. Continentality is the geographic proximity of a mountain region to an ocean, sea or major moisture source. Beniston (2006, p.4) notes:

The diurnal and annual ranges of temperatures in a maritime climate are markedly less than in regions far removed from the oceans; this is essentially due to the large thermal capacity of the sea, which warms and cools far less rapidly than land. Since the ocean represents a large source of moisture, there is also more precipitation in a maritime climate than in a continental one, provided the dominant wind direction is onshore.

Beniston (2006) indicates that an example of a warm and moist maritime mountain climate is found in the coastal mountains of the U.S. Pacific Northwest. In Canada, that equates to the Coastal Mountains of British Columbia. An example of a mountain region that is influenced by a cold and dry continental-type climate is the Canadian Rocky Mountains straddling the continental divide between British Columbia and Alberta. The Coastal Mountains and the Canadian Rocky Mountains form the western and eastern margins, respectively, of the Canadian Cordillera. The length of the Cordillera in Canada and the U.S.A. serves as a major boundary and physical barrier separating the moist Pacific Ocean/Coastal/marine-type climatic zone from the dry and cold inland continental climate zone found in the Rockies, Foothills and Prairies of Western Canada and U.S.A. Table 2.1 highlights Beniston’s (2006) salient points. The latitude of a mountain region is an important factor only to the extent that it governs the angle of solar influence and “the amplitude of the annual cycle of temperature, and to a lesser extent the amount of precipitation that a region experiences” Beniston (2006, p.4). Latitude also influences the effects that dominate other weather-influencing systems,

25 such as the El Nino, La Nina and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which influence weather systems over the Pacific Ocean and in the Canadian Cordillera.

Table 2.1: Beniston (2006) on climate processes in mountain regions

Mountain climate is governed by:

• Continentality (refers to proximity on the continental landmass of a mountain region to a moisture sources, such as an ocean or sea) o Latitude (distance relative to the pole and equator) o Altitude (is the most distinguishing and fundamental characteristic of mountain climate and affects temperature conditions) o Topography o Orographic features o Mountain systems generate their own climates depending on size of landmass • Precipitation o Amount of precipitation increases with elevation o Sharp phase transitions between rain, mixed precipitation and snow o More precipitation in a moist marine climate than in a continental one o Continental-type mountains are Canada’s Rocky Mountains o Diurnal and annual range of temperatures decreases with altitude • Topographic features o Slope, o Aspect o Exposure of the surface to climatic elements

Of the four factors governing climatic conditions, Beniston (2006, p. 4) suggests that altitude or elevation (i.e., orographic relief) of a mountain region is the most “distinguishing and fundamental characteristic of mountain climates, because atmospheric density, pressure and temperature decrease with height in the troposphere”. The diurnal and annual range of temperatures tends to decrease with increasing altitude because of the lower heat capacity of the atmosphere. Mountain systems often generate their own local and micro-climates based on the size and elevation of a mountain landmass, and the:

Slope, aspect, and exposure of the surface to climatic elements. These factors tend to govern the redistribution of solar energy as it is intercepted at the surface, as well as precipitation that are highly sensitive to local site characteristics. Beniston (2006, p.4)

The elevation at which the temperature of rising air reaches the freezing point (i.e., freezing level) may determine whether precipitation falls as rain, mixed precipitation or

26 snow. The elevation at which orographically-induced precipitation changes from rain to snow, the snowfall level, is significant because it not only defines the current ambient freezing level, but also in the fall, it defines the initial reliable snowline on the mountain slopes. During the winter, the freezing level shifts daily, but the snowfall level shifts up or down slope based on snowfall events and tend to be about 300 m lower than the average freezing level. Orographically-induced precipitation, as illustrated in Figure 2.2, typically falls on the windward-facing slopes because of atmospheric physics and dynamics associated with lateral flow and Figure 2.2: Image of on-shore flow and effects of orographic orographic uplift. relief. This image is analogous to a Chinook crossing the This is commonly Cordillera (Figure 2.3). understood to be Image credit: Manfred Kaiser the wet adiabatic lapse rate. Different moisture regimes on the windward and leeward sides of mountain ranges explains partially why the majority of moisture in Pacific air masses falls on the windward slopes of the Coastal Mountains leaving little or no moisture available to fall on

Figure 2.3: Image of Canadian the leeward slopes Cordillera in British Columbia or across the low and Alberta. Chinook winds cross the mountains from the lying semi-arid Pacific Ocean to the Prairies and Interior plateau create warm dry winds on the interior plains similar to the areas of British image in Figure 2.2. Columbia (Figure Image Credit: Natural Resources Canada (NRCan). North is up. 2.2). The high peaks in Glacier National Park and the Selkirk, Purcell and Monashee ranges in the Revelstoke region capture a large part of the remaining moisture content as the prevailing weather systems flow eastward toward the Canadian Rockies. By the time the

27 easterly-flowing air mass reaches the Canadian Rockies there may be little moisture remaining in the air mass. As the air mass cools over the Canadian Rockies the little moisture remaining falls as dry powder snow. Often, an eastward moving weather system sets up a dry Chinook-wind phenomenon over the Canadian Rockies, Foothills and Prairies as illustrated in Figures 2.2 and 2.3. Another salient point relates to the importance and impact of solar radiation in mountain environments. The influence of solar radiation on mountain slopes differs according to the angle of orientation, albedo and absorptive capacity (i.e., dark surfaces absorb more solar energy) of mountain slopes relative to the sun’s direct rays. Typically, in mid and high latitude mountain regions in the northern hemisphere the orientation, or aspect, of a mountain slope toward the sun will determine the amount of solar radiation received. South-facing slopes (i.e., south east, south, south west) during the winter months receive more direct thermal absorption potential per unit of exposed land area than do northward facing slopes (i.e., east, northeast, north, northwest, west). Slopes that are warmed by direct solar radiation result in increased potential snow cover ablation. Maintaining a snow cover on south-facing ski slopes can be challenging for ski resort managers and for others engaged in mountain winter tourism. Ski resort operators use snowmaking, fencing, snow blankets and snow farming techniques to supplement, replace and manage snow cover loss on ski slopes (D. Gibson16, John X, S. Best, pers. comm., 2006).

2.3 MOUNTAIN TOURISM

Little of the scholarly literature published during the past decade is about the potential effects of climate change on mountain tourism, particularly winter tourism. However, the little literature on mountain tourism provides sufficient salient information to inform my argument and helps to formulate answers to several of my research questions. Examples of mountain tourism from the European Alps serve as analogues and help me to understand how the changing climate may start to impact mountain winter tourism in Banff

16 Dave Gibson is the long-time General Manager of Marmot Basin Ski Hill in Jasper National Park.

28 and Jasper National Parks. In this section, I review the work of a number of key authors related to the topic of mountain tourism. Collectively, the many researchers whose work is included in the 1990, 1996, 2001 and 2007 Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that global climate change is occurring and will become more apparent with time. These researchers firmly believe that human society should expect changes to the biophysical environment from changes to the local, regional and global climate. These changes will impact the current climate and weather patterns and physical conditions at tourism destinations, particularly in mountainous regions in the northern hemisphere. IPCC (2007) and Diaz et al. (2003) suggest that mountain regions serve as real- time, mega-scale laboratories that can be used to monitor the effects of a changing climate. This may be because mountains, more so than low elevation continental areas, appear more sensitive at low to mid elevations to a changing climate. In many cases, mountain regions already are exhibiting the early physical effects of a changing climate (Beniston, 2003, 2006). Diaz et al. (2003, p.2) indicate “The stratified, elevationally-controlled vegetation belts found on mountain slopes represent an analogue to the different latitudinally- controlled climatic zones …. [and] high relief and high gradients make mountain ecosystems very vulnerable to slight change of temperatures and to extreme precipitation events”. IPCC (2001a, 2007) used as evidence of the physical effects of climate change on mountain environments the significant melt back of mountain glaciers as seen, for example, in regions of the European Alps and the Canadian Cordillera. The changing physical environment in mountain regions may provide an analogue for what could be expected and may already be starting to occur in lowland continental areas. IPCC climate scientists widely hold the view that mountain regions play a major role in influencing continental, regional, local and micro-scale climatic conditions as a result of high orographic relief and steep temperature gradients (Diaz et al. 2003). As biophysical and climatic changes progress in mountain environments, there may be both positive and negative socio-economic impacts on mountain tourism. The impacts will be particularly noticeable on snow sports, such as snowmobiling and skiing. Some of the climatic changes that may have an effect on mountain tourism activities are anticipated to

29 include: increased mean winter temperatures, increased winter precipitation, increased mixed precipitation during the winter, rising reliable snowline, higher elevation freezing levels, an increased number of extreme winter storm events, increased snow avalanche risks, increased moisture evaporation, increased stream discharge during winter months, and increased length of fall and spring seasons (Beniston, 2003; Burki et al. 2003; IPCC, 2001a, 2001b, 2007). All of these climatic changes may directly impact on the socio- economic status of mountain tourism businesses, particularly on winter and ski businesses that rely on reliable snow cover and moderate winter temperatures to attract people. Any event or physical changes that affect mountain snow cover and temperature conditions will not only directly impact ski resort operations, but also may create collateral damage on related socio-economic systems (i.e., other businesses and skiing-dependent businesses), such as the transportation and accommodation sectors. The authors reviewed in this chapter agree that climate change will impact tourism. The effects of climate change may be responsible for the limited and unreliable snow cover that has been occurring during the past decade in the European Alps (Beniston, 2003, 2006; Burki et al. 2003; Diaz et al. 2003). The effects of climate change apparently occurring in the Alps may have the same potential to impact socio-economic systems during both summer and winter at mountain tourism destinations, such as Whistler, Banff and Jasper National Parks. Beniston (2003), Bürki et al. (2003), Diaz et al. (2003), Scott (2003, 2006a) suggests that even though some parts of mountain regions already may be feeling the side effects of climate change, parts of other mountain regions may actually have self-defence mechanisms that may help to delay or buffer the effects of climate change. The self-defence mechanisms include natural features such as high elevational relief, steep adiabatic temperature gradients, and geographic proximity to a continental climate setting. The potential self-defence mechanisms also may include the geographic extent (i.e., length and width of the physical barrier) and orientation of the mountain ranges to the prevailing weather systems. For example, the European Alps have a different continental setting and orientation compared with the western mountain regions in North and South America. The Alps are located roughly in mid continent surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea, Atlantic Ocean, North Sea and Baltic Sea. The arcing configuration of

30 the mountain range does not present as great a barrier to the flow of weather systems as do the mountain regions of western North and South America. In North and South America, the western Cordillera mountain chain extends down the entire length of the continents along the coastal margin. The mountain chain is wide and high, and acts as a major physical barrier to the flow of weather systems moving inland off the Pacific Ocean. Other mountain regions in North America, such as the Appalachians in the U.S.A. and Laurentians in Quebec, are similar to the European Alps. Several authors reviewed have perspectives about how climate change may impact on mountain tourism. Beniston (2003), for instance, provides an overview of the possible climatic changes that may occur in mountain regions and how the changes may lead to social and economic impacts on mountain tourism operators, particularly ski tourism operators (see Table 2.2).

Table 2.2: Beniston (2003) on mountain tourism

Impacts on mountain tourism:

• Climate change will have both direct and indirect effects on mountain tourism • If temperatures rise by 2-3oC by 2050, the Swiss mountain resorts located below 1,200 m – 1,500 m would be adversely affected by a lack of reliable snow cover • Warm winter temperatures may bring less snow and more rain at low elevations and the probability of snow lying on the ground at peak vacation periods would decline • Elevated resorts in the Alps would remain relatively unaffected by climate change • Vulnerability threshold elevation for mountain and winter tourism businesses is poorly known

Beniston (2003) notes that mountain regions represent more than pretty landscapes to local and national economies. In many cases mountains provide the basis for the tourism economy. Mountain regions are unique living laboratories for the detection of climatic change and the assessment of physical and economic climate-related impacts. Beniston acknowledges that in socio-economic terms, the beauty and majesty of mountain landscapes are people magnets, attracting large numbers of residents and tourists in search of four-season recreational activities, especially skiing during winter. Beniston recognizes the economic benefits derived by mountain tourism businesses and acknowledges that climate change may be just one more factor that alters the seasonal patterns of tourism.

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Mountain regions around the globe differ considerably, but one feature common to all mountain regions is the complexity of the geography and orographic relief (Beniston, 2003). No two mountain regions are alike, nor are the climatic conditions. The mountain region’s climatic parameters, in particular temperature and precipitation, will differ significantly over very short horizontal and vertical (i.e., elevational) distances. The point is especially significant for ski tourism in Western Canada because in the Canadian Cordillera the reliability of snow cover and temperature conditions varies considerably based on elevation as one moves eastward from the Pacific coast to the Canadian Rockies. Precipitation (i.e., snow) reliability and below freezing winter temperature conditions are two parameters among several others that are most critical to maintaining a successful ski resort operation in any mountain region. Not all natural mountain and socio-economic systems respond to the effects of climate change in the same way, to the same degree or over the same timeframe (Beniston, 2003). This perspective is necessary to understand the symbiotic relationship that exists between climate and socio-economic systems. It is critical to understand there is inter- dependency between environmental and socio-economic systems. Beniston (2003) cites environmental sensitivity studies that suggest, at elevations below about 1,500 m, snow reliability and the amount and duration of snow cover may be sharply reduced in the future compared to today. The duration of snow cover in the Swiss Alps is particularly well correlated with weather systems associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index. Similarly, in North America the interaction of the El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO/LNSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are known to have similar effects on the Western North American Cordillera (Mote et al., 2005). If mean annual temperatures were to rise in the Swiss Alps by about 2 to 3 oC by the 2050s, the ski resorts located below 1,200 m – 1,500 m in the Alps would be adversely affected (Beniston, 2003). Scott and Jones (2005) agree, suggesting similar effects could occur in Banff National Park within the same timeframe. Both Beniston and Scott and Jones agree that warmer winters in the Alps and Canadian Cordillera may bring less natural snow and possibly more rain at low mountain elevations. In both locations, the probability

32 of snow lying on the ground at peak ski vacation periods (e.g., Christmas, Spring Break and Easter) would decline. In Europe there is a general rule of thumb in the ski tourism sector that defines a viable (i.e., profitable) ski season as the number of days of operation (Beniston, 2003). To be viable, a ski resort needs continuous reliable snow cover of over 30 cm depth at the base lasting for at least a period of 100 days. This is commonly known in Europe as the ‘100 day rule’. Köenig and Abegg (1997) add that during the latter part of the 20th century 85% of ski resorts in the European Alps had reliable snow cover (i.e., met the 100-day rule) for skiing. With as little as a 2oC warming of the mean winter temperature, by 2050 the number of viable ski resorts in the Alps may be reduced from 85% to 60% snow reliable, with the high-elevation ski resorts in the central and southern Alps being relatively unaffected. Beniston (2003) affirms that most low and mid-elevation (base below 1,500 m) Swiss ski resorts are vulnerable to the long-term effects of climate change. Scott and Jones (2005) also suggest 1,500 m is the likely average snowline elevation in Banff by the 2050s. Unfortunately, the threshold elevation of snowline vulnerability for the ski resorts in Europe and North America is not well known because it is not measured or monitored. The approximate elevation of the reliable snowline in the Alps and other mountain regions has been used as a proxy measure for the threshold for operational vulnerability. Beniston (2003), like Scott (2003, 2006a) and Scott et al. (2002), suggests that expanding use of artificial snowmaking technology may help some low to mid elevation ski resorts reduce their short-term vulnerability to low natural snow cover and above freezing temperatures. On the bright side, even though skiing and other snow sports may be impacted, many other non-winter or non-snow-based activities, such as mountaineering and hiking, may provide some off-setting compensation for tourist operators during the summer and shoulder seasons. It is possible that a whole new range of outdoor recreational activities suitable for the shoulder seasons may emerge as a consequence of climate change. Bürki et al. (2003, 2005), like Beniston (2003) and Scott (2003), agree that mountain regions and mountain tourism are sensitive to the effects of climate change (see Table 2.3). Bürki is among several authors who note that a changing climate is only one of many factors, albeit an important factor, that influences the success of mountain and snow-

33 based tourism. The list of other factors affecting mountain and snow-based tourism is long and includes the global economy, geopolitical stability and other world events. The implications of climate change on mountain winter tourism is seen in not only potentially less snow cover, but also in the receding glaciers, melting permafrost and more extreme storm events. Lack of reliable snow cover or winter temperatures that are either too cold or too warm at ski resorts may substantially reduce the number of skiers, meaning that a profitable winter/ski tourism business may scarcely be possible. Bürki et al. (2003) indicate that some mountain regions may be able to maintain their winter tourism by adopting suitable adaptation strategies, such as artificial snowmaking, while other mountain areas may lose winter tourism because of diminishing and unreliable annual snow pack. Evidence of such a scenario is already being played out in the European Alps (Elsasser and Burki, 2002; Köenig and Abegg, 1997; Muller and Weber, 2008).

Table 2.3: Bürki et al. (2003) on mountain and ski tourism

Impact on tourism: • Climate change will lead to a new pattern of favoured and disadvantaged ski tourism regions

Impacts on snow: • Less snow and less reliable inter-annual snow threatens the winter tourism industry • Some ski areas able to maintain winter tourism with snowmaking • Snow-reliable if, in 7 out of 10 winters, sufficient snow covering of at least 30 to 50 cm for 100 days between Dec 1 and April 15

Impact of elevation: • Ski resorts at high middle and high altitudes will scarcely be affected: those at low elevations are at greatest risk • Ski regions at higher altitudes may experience greater demand • Ski resorts at lower altitudes may withdraw from the market sooner or later • Most vulnerable ski resorts in low elevations of Alps have to deal with a significant decrease of younger guests, day tourists and novice skiers, which is exactly the target group of these resorts • Only ski areas with good prospects will be those with facilities that provide access to altitudes higher than 2,000 m by the 2050s

Impact on financing: • Banks are only prepared to grant very restrictive loans to ski resorts at altitudes below 1,500 m that are not particularly profitable • Insurance companies will not insure risky ski resorts below 1,500 m • Without reliable snow ski resort profitability scarcely possible • Healthy shrinkage of ski sector necessary

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For many alpine areas in the Alps, winter tourism is the single most important source of income (Bürki et al., 2003). Virtually all snow-sports, such as snowmobiling, skiing and snowboarding, depend on sustained depth of snow cover to be profitable. The reliability of good snow cover is a key element of a resort’s marketing efforts and touristic offerings. Hence, the financial viability of the winter tourism industry depends on sufficient snow cover conditions. Scott (2003), like Bürki et al. (2003), acknowledges that climate and weather influence the quality of summer and winter mountain tourism and recreation (see Table 2.4). In addition to high quality, reliable snow cover, Scott indicates the natural setting of a destination is one of the most critical factors that tourists use to determine the quality of a tourism product. Any physical change that may adversely affect the natural setting of a mountain tourism destination impacts the quality and appeal of the destination’s tourism product. Being located within a national park is an ideal setting. When events occur that negatively impact the biophysical environment, such as the effects of climate change on snow cover, there could well be diminished visitation. Diminished visitation impacts the local tourism destination’s revenues and local communities’ economies. Scott (2003) states that extreme winter storms and increased precipitation as snow combined with warmer temperatures increase the magnitude and frequency of snow avalanches at tourism destinations. As a result, skiers, snowmobilers and mountaineers visiting mountain backcountry and ski areas can expect an increase in fatalities, which may be a deterrent for skiers to visit certain ski resorts. Models of snow cover in the Pacific Northwest of North America project reductions in future snow cover in the Cordillera between 75 cm to 125 cm by the 2050s, and a potential upslope shift in the reliable snowline from approximately 900 m to 1,250 m on the coast (Scott, 2003). Beniston (2003) reported a snowline rise in the Alps to 1,500 m by 2050 and Scott and Jones (2005) suggest a possible 1,500 m snowline in Banff by the 2050s. The implication for major ski resorts in the Pacific Northwest region has not been examined.

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Table 2.4: Scott (2003) on mountain tourism

Impact on snow cover: • Climate change may pose a greater avalanche risk to tourists visiting backcountry areas • Models project a 75cm to 125cm reduction in average winter snow depth and estimated upward shift in the snowline from 900 m to 1,250 m in Western North America • Studies demonstrate the importance of snowmaking to reduce the vulnerability of the ski industry and minimize ski season loss

Impact on tourism: • Magnitude of the impact of climate change will depend upon the importance of the tourism industry in the regional economy; adaptive response of tourists; and the capacity of the mountain tourism industry to adapt • Changes in visitor numbers and seasonal visitation patterns are important for park revenues and the economies of nearby communities • Winter tourism has received greater research attention than any other tourism sector; the ski industry has been the focus of impact assessments in many countries. All these studies project negative consequences for the industry • Large ski corporations are less vulnerable because they are more diversified business operations, regionally diversified and better capitalized • If winter tourists and skiers travel, the market share may increase even though the average ski season may be shorter

Impact on economy: • Snowmaking requirements and greater energy use in warmer temperatures represents a cost increase that could affect profitability • The varied impact on regional skiing could alter competitive business relationships between resorts and communities

Previous studies on the effects of climate change on snow cover and skiing have omitted the impact that snowmaking technology as a climate adaptation strategy would have on ski resort operations (Scott et al., 2002). Snowmaking is important to current and future skiing operations. The deployment of new snowmaking technology and capability in the 2050s is projected to increase average ‘natural’ snow season in Central Ontario by as much as 7% to 32%. While Scott and co-authors imply snowmaking is important to future skiing operations; they note snowmaking represents greater operational costs that could affect the profitability of some ski resorts. Scott (2003) acknowledges that large ski entities, such as Intrawest, Vail Resorts and American Skiing Company, may actually be less economically vulnerable to the long- term effects of climate change than a single ski resort or resort area because the large

36 companies have more diverse operations, they are regionally diversified, and they tend to be better capitalized to cope with regional climate variability. Scott (2003: p. 6) says that “to assess the impact of climate change on winter tourism in any region of North America requires an understanding of the impacts on neighbouring winter recreation destinations”. He believes the variable impact of climate change on regional ski resorts could be significant enough to alter the competitive business relationships that exist between the various regional ski resorts, larger winter tourism regions and local communities. Some winter tourism destinations actually may increase or capture market share from other ski resorts even with a shorter ski season. Scott (2006a) re-affirms his view that climatic and weather conditions strongly influence the success of mountain tourism, especially winter tourism (see Table 2.5). Scott suggested that the connection between the socio-economic vulnerability of the mountain tourism sector and individual tourism destinations to climatic change have not been adequately assessed by the tourism research community.

Table 2.5: Scott (2006a) on mountain tourism

Economic importance: • Tourism is of great economic importance to many mountain communities • One of the fastest growing economic sectors for mountain regions of the world • Annual revenues of skiing in Canada is approximately US $647 millions • A minor climate warming could benefit mountain tourism economically in North America • Sufficient snow and annual reliability of climatic conditions critical factors in economic success

Sustainability of winter tourism: • Studies suggest winter tourism in many locations will be adversely affected by the 2050s • Sustainability of winter tourism and ski industry has repeatedly been identified as highly vulnerable to global climate change • European ski industry does not have the same adaptive capacity as North American resorts; less snowmaking occurs • Important to include adaptation and snowmaking in future climate change assessments in tourism • Adverse effects on natural setting diminishes the quality of tourism product and economies

Effect of climate change: • Estimated upward shift in the snowline from 900 m to 1,250 m in Western North America • Warming is not enough to adversely affect the winter tourism season at high elevations or exceed the coping range of snowmaking in lower elevations • Even more problematic beyond the 2020s

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Scott (2006a, p.2) states that “if climate change adversely affects the natural setting of mountain destinations … the quality of the tourism product would be diminished with [resulting economic] implications for visitation and local economies”. Scott’s comment is a direct reference to the relationship that exists and the potential vulnerability of the local tourist economy to the effects of climate change on the natural setting; any event that leads to a change in visitor numbers and their seasonal visitation patterns to tourist destinations, such as Banff and Jasper National Parks, is critically important to the local economies, particularly if that change results in a loss from park gate and tourist business revenues. Scott (2006a) notes that changes in snow cover depth and warmer winter temperatures not only affect winter tourist activities, but also increase the potential magnitude and frequency of snow avalanches, which introduces a significant human safety concern and a deterrent to mountain winter tourism, particularly for tourists who ski outside ski resort boundaries or travel in the backcountry areas of the parks. Scott (2006a, p.3) identifies climate records as indicating that the mean annual temperature in the Canadian Rocky Mountains has increased in the past century by 1.5oC, which “is almost three-times the global average of 0.6oC”. This information highlights what Scott (2003, 2006a), Beniston (2003, 2006) and Burki et al. (2003) say about mountain regions not being exempt from the effects of climate change. Scott (2006a) further suggests that some areas of mountain regions, particularly low elevations, may already be seeing increased effects of climate change. Nations like Australia, Austria, Canada, Scotland, Switzerland and the U.S.A., have undertaken considerable research on the ski tourism industry because of its international, national and local economic importance. Scott (2006a, 2006b) cites the results of computer modelling studies of snow cover in mountainous regions in the U.S. Pacific Northwest that project a significant reduction in the average winter snow depth from 75 to 125 cm. In 2000, the reliable snowline in the U.S. Pacific Northwest was projected to shift upward from around 900 m to about 1,250 m by the 2020s, reaching 1.500 m or higher by the 2050s (Scott 2006a). The computer model did evaluate what the operational or financial implications of less snow cover and a higher snowline may be for the major ski resorts in

38 the region, but the future for low elevation ski resorts located below the reliable snowline may be bleak. Scott (2006a) foresees the use of snowmaking technology as a major advantage that may help rescue some low elevation ski resorts from the negative effects of climate change by providing some early season and supplemental snow cover if water supply and ambient air temperatures permit. He notes that earlier studies examining the effects of climate change on snow cover at ski resorts in Ontario failed to consider the importance of being able to make snow as an adaptation strategy for the industry. The need for greater energy to operate snowmaking equipment could exacerbate the profitability concern of some and possibly all ski areas that experience limited natural snow cover at the start of and during the ski season. Scott (2006a) suggests that with varied climatic impacts on different regional ski resorts, particularly in the U.S. Northeast, the competitive relationship between ski resorts could be altered, as could the relationship between regional ski resorts and nearby communities. He thinks that, if the magnitude of climatic changes occurs as projected, more skiers may chose to travel greater distances, for example from the U.K. to Canada, to seek better snow conditions and a longer ski season. This potential shift in skier behaviour requires more research. To highlight the economic importance of mountain tourism, Scott (2006a) provides data that show annual revenues from the global ski industry approaching US$9 billion. In 2003 alone, the American National Ski Areas Association (NSAA) reported members’ revenues at over US$3 billion; in the same year, Statistics Canada reported revenues at Canadian ski resorts amounted to US$647 million, evidence that skiing is a major economic contributor to the winter economies of many communities. These economic values do not reflect all revenues generated by other types of mountain tourism. Revenues from snowmobiling, ice fishing, hockey, figure skating, dog sledding, tobogganing, Nordic skiing and any other winter recreational sports and leisure activities would be in addition to the revenues reported by Scott. The existence of quality snow cover and safe ice cover is a necessary factor in all of these winter recreation and tourism activities.

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2.4 SKIING AND SKI RESORTS

One common theme throughout the literature related to the effects of climate change is of its major impact on snow-sports, such as ski tourism (Abegg, et al., 2007; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; Elsasser and Bürki, 2002; Mote, et al., 2005; Müller and Weber, 2008; Scott, 2006a; Scott, 2006b; Scott and Jones, 2005; Scott, et al., 2008; Scott, et al., 2003; Scott, et al., 2007; Scott, et al., 2006; Scott, et al., 2004). If these authors are correct, then it can safely be said that the effects of climate change on natural snow cover and temperature conditions will directly impact ski resorts. Simply stated: no snow; no skiing; and no business. Elsasser and Messerli (2001; see Table 2.6) re-enforce that winter tourism plays a significant role in the socio-economics of European Alps tourism businesses; in some areas winter tourism visitation has surpassed summer tourism visitation. It appears from many media reports and other Internet musings that the European Alps are beginning to experience the projected effects of climate change sooner than many other mountain regions. The 660 ski areas (230 in Switzerland alone) in the European Alps need sufficient reliable snow cover at the right time (i.e., Christmas/New Years and Spring Break), the maximum length of ski season (i.e., the 100-day rule) and at the desired elevation to survive financially. The lack of early ski season snow cover in the past decade has severely tested the 100-day rule in the Swiss Alps. Elsasser and Messerli (2001) have been examining the growing effects on and vulnerability of winter tourism in the Swiss Alps for many years; they feel the ski industry and alpine winter tourism in general need to reassess what currently is happening to the industry and what may happen in the future given the growing influence climate change is having on snow cover. In my opinion, the European Alps may serve as an analogue for other ski regions. The ski tourism industry may need to consider implementing new operational strategies for overall development of the key mountain tourism areas. Skiing as a sporting activity may need to be downplayed or reduced in the future if the lack of reliable snow cover continues to be a problem.

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Table 2.6: Elsasser and Messerli (2001) on mountain and ski tourism

Economic importance: • Winter tourism important economic role throughout the Alps • Low elevation and small resorts highly endangered for economic survival • Skier demand may decrease; loss of incubator ski hills • Skiers may shift to alternative winter activities or locations

Snow reliability: • Reliable snow cover: 30-50cm for 100 days in 7 out of 10 winters (Dec 1 to April 15) • 85% of current resorts have reliable snow; how many ski areas snow-reliable in future? • Abrupt changes to North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Gulf Stream patterns could cause cooling rather than warming in Europe in the future

Elevation considerations: • Current elevation of reliable snow is 1,200m • Rising snowline to 1,500m by 2050 would reduce ski resorts to 60% with reliable snow • Concentrate skiers into high-elevation and more snow-reliable areas

Elsasser and Messerli (2001) report that the 2001 altitudinal limit in the Alps for reliable snow cover – the snowline – was 1,200 m. Should the snowline rise to 1,500 m as is projected by 2015 – 2025, only 65% of the 230 Swiss ski areas are likely capable of operating throughout the ski season. An additional snowline rise to 1,800 m by around the 2050s may result in only 44% of ski areas still having sufficient reliable natural snow cover. Thus, the potential for a large number of ski areas to close is a real possibility. The big fear current ski area operators have is that the declining snow cover and reduced quality skiing experience will alienate young and potentially new skiers who may not take up skiing, quit skiing or ski elsewhere. As Elsasser and Messerli (2001, p. 337) indicate:

Climate change will lead to massive changes in demand. One survey of vacationers in the winter season showed that the demand for ski tourism will decrease significantly and that ski and snow activities will undergo a process of concentration in areas with reliable snow cover.

Elsasser and Messerli (2001) suggest that although it is unlikely people will cease skiing entirely, possible effects of climate change on snow cover may result in skiers shifting to alternative winter activities. What is more worrisome to the ski area operators is the possibility that skiers may shift to other destinations that have better snow cover. This

41 could mean skiers who normally ski in the Alps may go to locations in North America where skiing conditions may still be better than those in the Alps. Elsasser and Messerli (2001) suggest that the effects of climate change may not be as great as computer models project. Nevertheless, the effects of climate change certainly may be a challenge, particularly for the low elevation ski areas that already are in an economic struggle to survive. Elsasser and Messerli (2001) note that it would be advisable for the managers of low elevation ski areas to plan an early exit from ski tourism. Elsasser and Messerli (2001) advise that the future of alpine tourism in the Swiss Alps may not be directly determined by the effects of climate change, but it is certainly going to be significantly influenced by it. Breiling and Charamza (1999) participated in a project funded by the Austrian government to assess the potential economic losses resulting from a decline in winter tourism and skiing in Austria. Their contribution to the project was the development of a computer model that assessed the implications of reduced snow cover on winter tourism and ski areas. They found that the presence or lack of reliable snow cover is the most important resource to support winter tourism and the basis for ski tourism. They also determined that many rural areas in Austria have developed an economic dependence on winter tourism and the operation of ski areas during the past half century. These rural areas are now concerned that it may not be possible to sustain the winter economy if climate change continues to have negative impacts on snow cover at many low and mid elevation ski areas. The concern expressed by Austrian rural areas is a common concern among many ski area operators from around the world, particularly those located at low elevation. Even though Breiling and Charamza (1999, p. 5) acknowledge their models are valid only for a particular region in Austria, they say many other general circulation models conclude that “warming will be accompanied by snow losses for winter tourism, but the reduction of the winter tourism and skiing season is less severe in high altitudes” (see Table 2.7). As Breiling and Charamza (1999) found, resorts situated in western Austria are of high elevation with a longer ski season. These ski areas have snow conditions that attract foreign tourists. Ski areas in eastern Austria may be closer to large urban centres and provide convenient access for the majority of Austrians, but the ski areas are lower in elevation and have a shorter ski season with mostly day-skiers visiting. All of Austria’s ski

42 areas are located between 113 m and 3,797 m. In Austria, the reliable snow cover commonly occurs between 400 and 2,800 m and the ski areas in that elevational zone normally are able to sustain a profitable ski business (i.e., meet the 100-day rule). Breiling and Charamza (1999) considered an elevation of 400 m as the minimum elevation to sustain a profitable ski area in 1999; in 2010 it is more like 1,200 m (Beniston, 2003, 2006). Table 2.7: Breiling and Charamza (1999) on ski resorts

Impact on snow cover: • Snowmaking is necessary to adapt to warming climate • Snowmaking may be partly possible but maybe not economical • At low altitudes season snow cover will be reduced by a larger percentage

Impact on ski resorts: • Not all areas suitable for adaptation due to financial or ecological reasons • Models conclude that warming will be accompanied by snow losses for winter tourism • Less severe consequences in high altitudes • Snow conditions between 400 m and 2,800 m are most relevant to business success • It is the frequency of good and bad ski seasons that will determine future of resorts • Low altitude resorts will disappear first; access to higher resorts will become difficult and expensive • Number of 1-day visitors will decline at many ski resorts, with resulting loss of revenue

Impact of elevation: • At 2,000 m, a warming of 2oC does not seem problematic for amount of snow cover • If warming at high altitudes turns out to be stronger than at low altitudes, then even high altitude resorts will have trouble • With a gain in altitude, the snow is less vulnerable to warming

Several tourism researchers (Beniston, 2003, 2006; Burki, et al. 2003a, 2003b; Scott and Jones, 2005) would agree with Breiling and Charamza’s contention that snow cover is less vulnerable to the warming effects of climate change (temperature and wind) with a gain in altitude. This is known as the orographic effect where, with a normal adiabatic lapse rate (absent of any temperature inversion), temperatures get colder with increase in elevation. Breiling and Charamza’s (1999) model suggests that at 2,000 m elevation a warming of 2oC does not present melting or sublimation problems for the amount of snow cover on the ground. But, they indicate that at low elevations, the snow cover depth is reduced substantially. Since the frequency of good snow seasons in the Alps cannot be counted on occurring as frequently as they did in the past, the future frequency of good ski

43 seasons will determine the profitability and operability of ski areas. Breiling and Charamza (1999) acknowledge that even a small 0.8oC increase in temperature will require the ski areas to adapt operations. The effect of a 2oC increase may leave only a small number of viable operations to accommodate winter tourism. Skiing in the future (~2050) may be confined to only high elevation locations in the Alps. That leads to the possibility that people may stop skiing or ski infrequently or ski at other destinations because of a limited number of skiing venues in the Austrian Alps, and because of the potential for over- crowding. Breiling and Charamza (1999) examined the potential economic implications of a changing climate on Austrian ski tourism areas. February is the most important month for generating tourist revenues, while Christmas and Easter are the most important months from a business perspective. A warming of 2oC could negatively impact ski resorts located at mid elevations at the most economically important times. Breiling and Charamza suggest that if warming is actually greater at mid elevations the situation for these ski areas may be more problematic than was first anticipated. The conclusion Breiling and Charamza (1999) have reached is that low elevation ski areas near eastern Austrian urban centres will disappear first, resulting in more skiers visiting mid to high elevation ski areas and leading to overcrowding. The question Breiling and Charamza cannot answer is when will all these changes to the ski resorts begin to occur? Based on recent scholarly literature, anecdotal reports and media accounts, the changes in the Alps already have started. Abegg et al. (2007) re-enforce the importance of winter tourism activities in the Alps. Abegg and co-authors examined both the potential impacts of climate change on the natural variability and reliability of snow cover at alpine ski areas and adaptation options available to ski areas, including changes to operational practices, introduction of financial tools and implementing new business models to cope with future changes to ski area businesses see Table 2.8). Abegg et al. (2007) acknowledges that winter tourism in the European Alps is big business, generating EUR 50 billion and providing 10-12% of all winter jobs. Since the early 1970s, in some areas of the Alps, winter tourism has taken over from summer tourism as the main economic driver. Abegg et al. (2007) report that there are over 660 ski resorts

44 and 10,000 ski installations in existence in the French, Swiss, Austrian and Italian Alps. Taken together, these four countries make up 85% of Europe’s skiing areas. The ski area operators have invested heavily in infrastructure and contribute significantly to the economies of the four countries. In some alpine areas of the Alps, winter tourism is the only source of income. The prospect of a changing climate and the experience of the past few ski seasons give the winter tourism industry in the Alps good reason to worry. The low snow cover, rising snow lines and short ski seasons experienced by winter tourism operators in the European Alps during the past decade may be just a precursor to what other ski resorts around the globe have to look forward to.

Table 2.8: Abegg, et al. (2007) on winter tourism

Impacts of climate change • Colder areas will have natural snow reliability than lower warmer elevations • It is estimated that the snowline will rise by 150 m per 1oC; 300 m by 2050

Reliability of snow cover • Resorts financially depend on favourable snow and snow reliability conditions • Minimum necessary snow depth at base is 30 cm: 75 cm is excellent; more needed at high elevations • Considered snow reliable if upper half of altitudinal range is located above snowline threshold • Use snowline to detect trends and patterns in geographical distribution of natural snow

Adaptation options • Slope landscaping and developments • Move to higher altitudes • North facing slopes • Glacier skiing • Artificial snowmaking • Behavioural adaptations: operational practices and financial instruments; cooperation and mergers and all-year tourism

Operational practices • Skiing compensates for loss of summer alpine tourism • Alpine ski areas need to operate over a period of 120+ days starting in mid December • Three critical business periods are: Christmas/New Year, mid spring break and Easter • Resorts subscribe to the 100-day rule; currently fulfilled by ski areas above 1,200 – 1,300 m; 1,200 m taken to be the current line of natural snow reliability; varies across Alpine

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Indicating that elevation of the base and summit of a ski resort is critical to the future success of winter tourism, Abegg et al. (2007) examined the elevation of ski areas in the four countries plus Germany. The higher up on the slopes of a mountain a ski resort is located the greater the prospect a ski resort will be in colder temperature and snow precipitation zones on the mountain side. The ski resorts operators hope for a 120+ day ski season, with the season starting early in December and ending about mid April. As a minimum, the ski resort operators want to be operational for Christmas/New Years, the February/early spring school breaks and Easter. These times/dates are the prime revenue generating periods for all ski resort operators, including in North America (John X, pers. comm., 2006). Abegg et al. (2007) report that future snow cover in the Alps is anticipated to decrease under the influence of a changing climate. This possibility impacts the natural snow reliability in the alpine zones and impacts the 100-day rule. The 100-day rule is simply a guide that many ski operators at larger Swiss ski areas have adopted as a measuring stick. The 100-day rule is achieved by ski resorts above an average elevation of 1,200 – 1,300 m. This elevation will differ depending on geographical location. Abegg et al. (2007, p. 30) suggest “that one of the conditions required to run a successful ski business under current climate conditions in Switzerland is an average minimum elevation [at the base] of 1,200 m. This minimum altitude is taken as the line of natural snow-reliability” and is commonly referred to as the reliable snowline. The snowline is at different elevations across the alpine zone because of variations in the alpine terrain and climatic zones. For example, Abegg et al. (2007) suggest the line will be lower in elevation in colder alpine and continentality zones and higher in lower elevation warm Atlantic-maritime zones. The discussion about the elevational change of the reliable snowline (snow- reliability line) is significant to my study. Abegg et al. (2007) suggest that in a warmer and maritime-influenced ski area, the snowline and the line of natural snow-reliability may rise by 150 m, 300 m, and 600 m for every 1oC (2020s), 2oC (2050s) and 4oC (2100s) respectively of warming. Three threshold altitude values result:

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1) In regions where the natural line of snow-reliability is currently at 1,050 m, the altitude for snow-reliability will increase to 1,200 m 1,350 m, and 1,650 m with 1oC (2020s), 2oC (2050s) and 4oC (2100s) warming, respectively (p. 31).

2) In regions where the natural line of snow-reliability is currently at 1,200 m, the altitude for snow-reliability will increase to 1,350 m with 1oC (2020s), 1,500 m with 2oC (2050s) and 1,800 m with 4oC (2100s) (p. 31).

3) In regions where the natural line of snow-reliability is currently at 1,500 m, the altitude for snow-reliability will rise even higher to 1,650 m with 1oC (2020s), 1,800 m with 2oC (2050s) and 2,100 m with 4oC (2100s) (p. 32).

Abegg et al. (2007) notes that ski operators in the Alps are not sitting back and waiting to face the ultimate business consequence – closure. Instead, the operators are adopting new technology practices and making behavioural changes. Technological adaptations include: landscaping and slope developments; a move of operations to higher elevations and north facing slopes; expanding glacier skiing; and introducing more artificial snow-making technology. Behavioural adaptations include: operational practices; financial tools and adopting new or modified business models that include co-operation and mergers with other ski areas. The main behavioural change is to expand operations to be four-season operations with golf and other non-snow based recreational activities. Several ski regions in Canada already have adopted a four-season operation to sustain business year-round, mostly for financial reasons, not from the effects of climate change (Scott, 2003). Scott and McBoyle (2007) suggest the tourism sector has either limited understanding or chooses deliberately not to acknowledge that it is vulnerable to the long- term effects of climate change. Only during the past decade has the issue of climate change generated any real interest on the part of the tourism industry or the tourism research community. Prior to that time, the climate change issue was merely an academic exercise. One possible exception to this characterization was the research conducted on the winter sports sector. As of early 2010, there has been no thorough review of how the skiing tourism sector will be impacted by, or how it needs to adapt to, a changing climate. Scott and McBoyle’s paper provides some insight into adaptation strategies that could be adopted by ski resorts to cope with future changes to climate and the changing biophysical

47 environment (see Table 2.9). The possible adaptations may influence the degree of vulnerability and economic stability of the ski industry. Scott and McBoyle (2007) suggest the global ski industry is vulnerable to any event or climate effects that alter the number of skier visits. Ski areas around the world may experience potential consequences from a changing climate in different ways, to varying degrees and over different time frames depending on geography, elevation (of the ski resort) and proximity to a major moisture source, such as an ocean. Generally, most of the ski industry has yet to assess its adaptive capacity to cope with the effects of climate change. This type of assessment needs to be done, particularly in light of the difference that current and future snowmaking technology and other potential operational options could make to the industry.

Table 2.9: Scott and McBoyle (2007) on ski industry adaptation to climate change

Economic factors: • Skiing is big business: skiing revenues in U.S.A. is over US$3 billion; and in Canada U.S.$680 million • Europe is largest ski market with 54% of 330 million world wide; U.S. 21%; Japan 16% • Climate change viewed as low risk over any relevant business-planning horizon • Climate change would contribute to the demise of poorly adapted ski resorts

Adaptation strategies: • Ski industry will remain reactive rather than proactive to effects of climate change • Adaptation options not isolated from other business decisions; influenced by a broad range of other factors: economy, market demand, competition, energy costs, labour availability and costs, environmental regulations, jurisdictions with less restrictions • Climate change adaptations will be incremental adjustments to existing strategies • Ski areas that are better adapted to a changing climate and have better adaptive capacity than their competitors will be the survivors in an era of climate change • Adaptive capacity of ski industry has not been assessed; potential to reduce impacts • Technological and business practice adaptation options, including: o snowmaking o slope development o modifying operational practices o ski conglomerates o revenue diversification

Scott and McBoyle (2007) highlight a number of potential adaptation options for ski resorts. The options are framed around different factors relevant to the ski tourism industry,

48 such as quality of experience for skiers, economic well-being of ski resort operators and local communities, and environmental and social sustainability of ski resorts. Scott and McBoyle note these adaptation options fall into two basic categories: technological and business practices. Technological options include snowmaking systems, slope developments and grooming, on-hill operational practices and cloud seeding. Business practice options include creating ski conglomerates, financial instruments, revenue diversification, four-season developments, joint marketing efforts and indoor ski area developments. As Scott and McBoyle (2007; see also Scott, 2003, 2006a and Scott and Jones, 2005) point out snowmaking capability is today’s most commonly used adaptation strategy (and is likely to remain so, well into the future) for ski resorts in North America. Use of snowmaking in the European Alps, Australia or Japan is not yet as widespread as it is in North America. The Alps in particular continue to rely on natural snow cover. If temperatures are conducive (i.e., below freezing), snowmaking allows for the expansion of a ski season and increased use of lower elevations where there is a shortage of natural reliable snow cover (Scott and Jones, 2005 and Scott et al., 2006). Scott and McBoyle (2007, p. 1416) found “that snowmaking extended the average [North American] ski season between 55 and 120 days during the baseline period (1991-1990)”. Snowmaking technology helps to reduce the vulnerability of ski resorts in most mid-elevation mountainous regions of North America. In Banff National Park, snowmaking is suitable for elevations from 1,600 m and above to mid ski slope elevations where the temperature is at or below freezing (Scott and Jones, 2005). The adoption of various climate-oriented operating options by ski resort operators typically is not considered or implemented in isolation of other business decisions (Scott and McBoyle, 2007). Business decisions are influenced by a range of other factors considered equally as important as the effects of climate change, such as: market demand, geopolitical turmoil, global and national economies, regional and global competition, energy and operating costs, labour availability, environmental regulation, and regulatory environment. “Many North American ski area managers have indicated they perceive the risk of climate change to be very low over any relevant business-planning horizon” (Scott

49 and McBoyle, 2007, p. 1426). This short-term thinking and planning is not unusual; most skiing-dependent business managers I interviewed do not plan more than a few months to as much as 5 years in advance. Ski area operators believe that gradual future adaptation to climate change may allow their businesses to remain reasonably economically solvent and profitable; clearly, the ski industry needs to continue to be open-minded and reactive to change. Scott and McBoyle (2007, p. 1427) suggests the ski resorts that have the adaptive capacity to react to climate change will be ahead of their competition and may be the only “survivors in an era of climate change”. In some instances, the effects of climate change in the future may contribute to the closure of small ski hills and resorts that are poorly adapted to or unable to react to the necessary changes. This suggests the remaining ski resorts may be in a position to take advantage of an altered competitive environment by capturing market share (Scott and McBoyle, 2007). Increased market share will allow some ski resorts to grow economically despite the possibility of fewer skiers, shorter ski seasons and higher operating costs for snowmaking. Determining which ski resorts may be winners or losers in the climate change game remains a task for future research. Moen and Fredman (2007) state that, just like the European Alps or the major ski regions in North America, ski tourism in Sweden is dependent upon suitable natural physiographic features and desirable climatic conditions for the development and operation of successful ski resorts (see Table 2.10). As at all ski areas around the globe, reliable inter- annual snow cover in Sweden is one of the most important and critical elements needed to sustain a successful ski tourism sector. Godfrey (1999) indicates that high quality snow cover and moderate temperature conditions and the extent of skiable terrain are the two most important characteristics mentioned by British skiers when they decide to travel to Canada or Sweden for a winter ski vacation. Skiing is very popular in Sweden with an estimated 1.4 million individuals (one quarter the total population) claiming to visit a ski area, and 80% indicating they participated in skiing (Moen and Fredman, 2007). Moen and Fredman note that when it comes to major ski destinations, for most North American skiers, Sweden is not top of mind as a vacation destination. But, in the past decade Sweden has emerged as one of the

50 top ten ski areas in the world in terms of the number of ski regions and skier visits. Skiing is the single most important winter tourism activity in the Swedish mountain regions and is an economically important contributor to the economy of many local communities (Moen and Fredman, 2007).

Table 2.10: Moen and Fredman (2007) on skiing in Sweden

Effect of climate change: • Climate change may affect outdoor recreation in three ways: availability of opportunities through longer summer seasons and shorter winter seasons; overall comfort and enjoyment of recreation activities; quality of the recreation experience • Changes will produce both winners and losers of recreation activities: skiing being a potential loser • Changes in future temperature conditions and precipitation (snow cover) levels may reduce ski season length • Snow conditions are a key variable for skiers to decide where they want to ski (see also Gilbert and Hudson, 2000) • Low elevation ski areas are particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation levels

Ski resort requirements: • Skiing is dependent on ideal terrain, altitude, vertical drop and climatic conditions (temperature, precipitation and wind) • Factors affecting British skiers decision where to ski, snow conditions and skiing terrain where the two most important features (also Godfrey, 1999) • Some ski areas may need to introduce alternative attractions in winter to remain viable • Most common adaptation to snow-deficient winters is artificial snowmaking; but comes with environmental and financial costs • Develop all-year tourism activities; has a positive social effect with job opportunities • Strategies needed to counteract the adverse effects predicted from future climate trends

Snow conditions: • Some ski areas with positive snow conditions may opt to capitalize on the situation • Snowmaking may help some ski areas with snow-deficient winters • Extreme cold periods will be more uncommon while extreme heat will be common Very few alternative adaptation strategies for climate change exist in the low elevation Swedish mountains; develop new ski resorts in the north where snow is more reliable • Ski resorts in the north are further from population centres; costly to travel and ski

Ski areas in Sweden typically are located at high latitudes near the 60th parallel, which in Canada separates the Prairie Provinces from Yukon, N.W.T and Nunavut Territories where there are no ski resorts (Moen and Fredman, 2007). Most ski resorts in Sweden are at low

51 elevations in the range of 500 m – 1,200 m and characterized by small vertical drops of 300 m – 500 m, which makes skiing less challenging and demanding than that found at many European and North American ski regions. Skiing in Sweden has a high participation rate because it is branded as a family- friendly sport with facilities that are easily accessed by ground or air transport from the densely populated southern areas of Sweden. Moen and Fredman report that, in a reasonably short timeframe, Sweden’s ski areas can expect to experience similar effects of climate change on snow reliability and snow depth as may the ski areas in Europe and North America. The effects of a changing climate may include warmer winter temperatures, more mixed precipitation, increasing elevation of reliable snowlines, more extreme storm events and shorter ski seasons. Moen and Fredman’s comments suggest that even ski resorts located at high sub-arctic latitudes are not immune from the growing effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions.

2.5 CLIMATE CHANGE IN BANFF NATIONAL PARK

The Town of Banff engaged Scott and Jones (2005) to conduct a special study to explore the potential effects of a changing climate on temperature, precipitation and snow cover conditions in Banff National Park to assess how such changes may impact the length of the golf and skiing seasons during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Banff National Park may serve as an analogue for other regional ski resorts in the Canadian Rockies, including Marmot Basin in Jasper National Park, given the proximity and reasonably similar geographic, topographic and climatic conditions in Jasper. Scott and Jones’ (2005) report appears to be the only published report of its kind that models the future effects of climate change on precipitation amount, temperature conditions, snow depth and length of ski season in Banff National Park during three climate model scenarios: 2020, 2050 and 2080 (see Table 2.11). Their report also indicates how the changes in future climate scenarios may impact ski resort operations and skiing. While I examined only the potential affects during climate model scenarios 2020 and 2050, my research extends to other skiing-dependent businesses.

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The climate conditions and the climatic trend (i.e., warming or cooling) in the park are determined by comparing a 30 year base line period (1961-1990) of weather observations at weather stations in the park with current and projected temperature and precipitation trends. The comparison of the 30 year baseline data with current weather data allowed Scott and Jones (2005) to assess whether or not the climate is changing. Their examination of Environment Canada weather data at Banff, Alberta indicates that the mean annual temperature for Banff has increased by 1oC since the 1940s. Their research indicates also that winters in Banff are warmer by 1.2oC today than they were 70 years ago and 3.4oC warmer today than a century ago.

Table 2.11: Scott and Jones (2005) on the effects of climate change on snow cover and length of ski season in Banff

Impact on temperature and precipitation: • Trend in Banff’s mean annual and winter temperature is increasing • Trend in Banff’s mean winter precipitation levels are decreasing • Mean winter precipitation is becoming more mixed precipitation and the amount of rain verses snow content is increasing • Snow depth declining from Banff climate station 1961-1990 baseline

Impact on snow reliability: • Less reliable annual snow cover in 2020 at 1,600 m, but enough most winters to ski • Variable reliable natural snow cover in 2020 at 2,600 m; but more than enough to ski • Limited reliable natural snow cover in 2050 at 1,600 m; likely may not be enough from year to year to ski at valley and mid elevations; should not affect ski resorts with snowmaking capability • Variable reliable snow cover in 2050 at 2,600 m; but likely enough natural annual snow cover to ski safely most years (also supported by S. Best, pers. comm., 2006)

Trend of ‘snow’ season with natural snow and natural snow and snowmaking: • 2020 and 2050 at 1,600 m and 2,600 m with no snowmaking results in a major reduction in season (-57% to -94%) • 2020 with snowmaking at 1,600 m approximately 15% reduction in length of ski season? • 2020 with snowmaking at 2,600 m is zero change to snow season • 2050 with snowmaking at 1,600 m 9% - 43% reduction in length of snow season • 2050 with snowmaking at 2,600 m zero change to snow season

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Environment Canada records indicate annual precipitation levels have declined by 5% since 1938, while the inter-annual natural variability in snow depth can vary substantially from one year to next: some years receive abundant snow depth while other years receive barely enough (< 30 cm) to support skiing at valley and base elevations. The total mean annual snowfall in the park since 1971 has decreased 40%. Records indicate that this climatic trend for snowfall is consistent across the southern interior of British Columbia and in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains (Scott and Jones, 2005). Scott and Jones (2005) used two different climate models to project future climate change scenarios for 30 year periods: 2020s (2010 – 2030), 2050s (2040-2060) and 2080s (2070-2090). Using the best available data from Environment Canada, climate models projected what Banff’s temperature and precipitation changes may be for each of the three scenarios, based on the 1961-1990 baseline. The climate models project that Banff’s climate is likely to continue warming over the 2020s and 2050s. Their models projected that the mean winter temperature will increase between 0.3oC and 1.7oC in the 2020s; 1.4oC and 5.9oC in the 2050s; and between 2.7oC and 9.0oC in the 2080s. This suggests that the probability of more frequent rain events and mid-winter melts during the ski season, not unheard of today, may increase as the winter temperatures increase. They suggest that Banff National Park will likely receive more annual precipitation by as much as 5% by 2020s; between 4% and 7% by 2050s; and between 15% and 16% by the end of the century. Winter precipitation levels are projected to decrease by 1% in the 2020s, but range between -3% to +12% in the 2050s. By the 2080s, the winter precipitation may increase 10% to 27%. They suggest the amount of snowfall at valley and mid-slope elevations from increased future precipitation may actually be less during these time periods as the precipitation that falls may occur more often/frequently as rain than as snow. This knowledge is particularly important for assessing the potential long-term socio-economic impacts on and vulnerability of Banff’s winter tourism. As Doug Godfrey, an operator of a skiing-dependent business in Banff said, regardless of the effects of climate change “there will always be winter in Banff.” Scott and Jones (2005) acknowledge that of the three ski resorts in Banff National Park, Mount Norquay is likely the most vulnerable of the three to the effects of climate

54 change. This may be partly because of the resort’s geographic location in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rockies, its micro-climate being similar to the Bow River Valley, the effect of Chinook winds, its easterly slope aspect and lower elevation of the resort’s summit compared to the other ski resorts in the park. Mount Norquay is the largest user of snowmaking technology of the four ski resorts in the parks. The ski resort advertises on its website that it can make snow over 90% of its skiable terrain, dependent upon Parks Canada approving sufficient water allocation for this purpose from 40 Mile Creek. Mount Norquay, Sunshine Village and Lake Louise ski resorts all occupy different micro-climates within Banff; each receiving different amounts of snow cover and offering different ski season lengths. Scott and Jones (2005) modelled snow season lengths for Mount Norquay and Lake Louise based on weather data obtained from Environment Canada sites located in the Bow River Valley bottom at Banff and Lake Louise townsites rather than weather data from each ski resort17. The sites of the Environment Canada weather stations do not accurately represent the weather and climatic conditions at each ski resort, but it is the best available data to use in the climate models (Scott and Jones, 2005). Based on climate data from 1961 – 1990 for Banff town site, Scott and Jones (2005) report the average number of days in a ski season at Mount Norquay is approximately 76 days at the 1,636 m base elevation and 179 days near its 2,133 m summit elevation. Using these values, and considering natural snow conditions only, the two models (warm and less warm scenarios) project that by the 2020s Mount Norquay could face between a 50% – 57% reduction in ski season length at 1,636 m, and between a 7% – 13% reduction in the ski season at its summit. A reduction in the number of days suitable for skiing may result in significant operational and economic impacts on the ski resort by as early as the 2020s. By the 2050s, the average ski season at the base area of Mount Norquay may be reduced by 94% under the warmest climate change scenario and reduced by 66% under the less warm scenario. Mount Norquay’s capacity to make snow over approximately 90% of its slopes can be incorporated into the model calculations. With snowmaking and natural snow cover together the potential reduction in the ski season in the 2020s at the base elevation is between 7% – 15%, and 0% to 1% reduction in ski season at the summit.

17 The three ski resorts did not provide Scott and Jones with the climate records for each resort.

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By the 2050s, the reduction may be between 9% - 43% in the ski season at the base and between 0% to 6% less ski season at the summit (Scott and Jones, 2005). Climate models produce similar results for Lake Louise Ski Resort (Scott and Jones, 2005). Environment Canada data suggests an average 153 skiable days at 1,600 m and 197 days skiable days at 2,600 m based on the 1961-1990 baseline. When considering natural snow only for the 2020s, models project between 27% – 35% reduced ski season at 1,600 m and between 2% - 3% reduction in the ski season at 2,600 m. For the 2050s, models project between 31% – 87% fewer skiable days at 1,600 m and between 2% - 19% fewer skiable days at 2,600 m. When snowmaking capacity is included in the model calculations, the ski season length at Lake Louise is nearly unchanged in both the 2020 and 2050 scenarios. For the 2020 ski season at 1,600 m, models project between a 0% to 1% reduction in the ski season, and at 2,600 m a 2% increased ski season. For the 2050 ski season at 1,600 m, models project between a 0% to 12% reduction in ski season length, and at 2,600 m models project a potential 0% to an increase of ski season of 2%. Clearly, the capacity to supplement natural snow cover with artificial snow has the potential to significantly limit the loss of ski season length at ski resorts in Banff (Scott and Jones, 2005). Based on my knowledge and experience in the parks, it is likely that a similar climate scenario exists for Marmot Basin in Jasper. The adaptive capacity to make snow may be the silver lining for ski resorts in the parks, as it is for other ski resorts (Scott et al. 2003), provided water supply, snowmaking technology, freezing temperatures and regulatory authorities all cooperate. Mount Norquay and Lake Louise have been using snowmaking technology for many years; and Marmot Basin installed snowmaking technology on its lower slopes in 2007. Sunshine Village has received approval from Parks Canada to remove water from Healy Creek for snowmaking on the lower ski out trail. With snowmaking technology in place to supplement natural snow cover at the ski resorts, Scott and Jones (2005) say that:

Under both climate change scenarios [warmest and less warm], the probability of ski runs at base elevations [~1,600 m] being closed for the entire Christmas-New Year holiday in the 2020s and 2050s was almost zero. This indicates that the economic core of the ski season can be maintained with additional snowmaking even under the warmest scenario for the 2050s (p. 13).

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Snowmaking helps reduce the negative impact of less natural snow and will likely become an increasingly important climate adaptation for Banff’s ski operations particularly at low elevations (p. 20).

Regardless of what the climate models project, it is my opinion that making snow at the mid and summit elevations of Sunshine Village, Lake Louise and Marmot Basin ski resorts is currently impractical because getting sufficient water to higher elevations is already a challenge and without on-hill storage reservoirs will remain a challenge in the future. To be able to have a water supply at higher elevations requires the appropriate infrastructure (i.e., water collection and storage facilities), electric power, and additional snowmaking equipment. Given the current regulatory environment in the parks, Parks Canada may not have the appetite to undergo lengthy environmental assessment reviews necessary to approve a request to build water cisterns or reservoirs on the slopes. It may be a moot point because the ski resorts receive reliable snow cover at high elevations. Even during a low snow winter in the future, Scott and Jones’ climate models infer there may be sufficient snow depth at mid and high elevations to permit skiing in the 2020s and 2050s (supported by S. Best, pers. comm., 2006).

2.6 ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF SKI TOURISM IN BANFF AND JASPER

Ski tourism is big business in Western Canada. This was confirmed during my interviews with skiing-dependent business managers, Alberta Economic Development, Travel Alberta, Banff Lake Louise Tourism and the Canada West Ski Areas Association (CWSAA). As an indication of the economic importance of skiing, the CWSAA prepares an annual economic survey and analysis for its 64 members. While the annual reports do not contain economic information about other skiing-dependent businesses, the survey describes and measures the physical and economic characteristics experienced each year by many of the ski resorts and ski hills in Western Canada (CWSAA, 2006, 2007, 2008). If the CWSAA report indicates that a ski resort appears to have experienced a profitable ski season, then it may be inferred that the other skiing-dependent businesses associated with that ski resort may have also had a good season, all other factors being held constant,

57 because of the mutual (i.e., symbiotic) relationship that exists between ski resorts and other skiing-dependent businesses. For example, for the 2005/2006 ski season, 31 of 64 (48%) ski areas in Western Canada participated in the CWSAA economic survey: 19 from B.C. and Yukon and 12 from the three Prairie Provinces, including the four ski resorts in the national parks (CWSAA, pers. comm., 2007). The 2005/2006 CWSAA survey accounts for approximately 76% of skier visits in Western Canada. This report (2006: p.1) cautions that the results of the 2005/2006 survey “may not fully represent the economic conditions of the [entire] ski industry in Western Canada”, but the Executive Director of CWSAA (J. Spencer, pers. comm., 2007) suggests the survey results are representative of the ski industry in Western Canada. The 2005/2006 ski season was an average snow year resulting in a profitable season for most ski areas located in the Canadian Cordillera. The average CWSAA member recorded a 20.7% operating profit (before tax) on total revenue; 20 of 31 ski areas recorded a profit (before tax) of 27.3% of total revenue and 11 of 31 ski areas reported losses of up to 4.8% of revenue. CWSAA says one measure of a successful ski season is the number of days a ski area can operate. In 2005/2006 the average number of days of operation was 119 days compared to 111 days the previous ski season. The increased number of skiable days is attributed to better weather and snow conditions (CWSAA, 2006). Alberta ski areas recorded a 2.9% increase in skier visits while ski areas in B.C. experienced a 27% increase. Alberta skier visits peaked at nearly 2.6 million visits during the 2005/2006 ski season. The number of skier visits in Alberta have been in the same range for 2006/2007, 2007/2008 seasons. Over the past eight years, B.C. skier visits have been at approximately 7 million visits for the years between 1998/1999 to 2005/2006. The exception is 2004/2005, which is considered a bad snow year by many operators in B.C. B.C.’s ski resorts continue to attract more skier visits than Alberta’s ski resorts on a nearly 4:1 ratio (CWSAA, 2006). One of the best, but rather dated sources of economic information about downhill skiing at Banff and Jasper National Parks is a report prepared for Alberta Economic Development in February 2000 by PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PWC). This report was

58 released prior to the impacts that occurred to tourism in the parks following 9/11 and the subsequent global geopolitical turmoil. Other global events, such as SARS, H1N1, various economic downturns, such as the economic decline in 2008/2009, also followed the PWC report. Nevertheless, the PWC report remains the most current formal economic assessment of the value of skiing in Alberta and the mountain national parks. Given the importance of total tourist numbers to Banff and Jasper (e.g., almost 3.15 million in Banff in 2008, down from an estimated 4.6 million in 1999 – the date of the PWC study – and 1.891 million in Jasper in 2008, down slightly from 1.895 million in 1999), the winter tourist traffic and skier contribution to the winter economy of Banff and Jasper is significant (PriceWaterHouseCoopers, 2000; Government of Alberta, 2009). Parks Canada officials and representatives of SkiBig3 and Banff Lake Louise Tourism organizations that I interviewed acknowledged that snow sports, namely alpine skiing, form the foundation of Banff and Jasper National Park’s winter economy (see Table 2.12). The Alberta government commissioned the PWC economic report so the government could establish an economic baseline for winter tourism, and to better understand the economic contribution that skiing makes in Alberta’s mountain national parks. Parks Canada had already introduced the Ski Area Management Guidelines18, which regulates current and future ski area operations and developments. Given the decline in visitation from 1999 to 2008 in both Banff and Jasper National Parks the economic values cited in Table 2.12 for skiing in the parks likely are somewhat higher than are occurring in 2009/2010. The PWC (2000: p. 6) report also indicates that “approximately 1.66 million skiers visited the Alberta Rocky Mountain ski resorts during the 1998/1999 season”. Half the skiers that year were Alberta residents, while the remaining half included 20% other Canadians, 23% from overseas, and 7% from the U.S.A. A comment I heard from four different people in the ski tourism sector in Banff and Jasper National Parks, and stated best by Sandy Best (pers. comm., 2006), is that the economic benefits derived from one over-night or destination skier is roughly equivalent to the economic benefits generated by 10 day-skiers. Overnight and destination visitors tend

18 I obtained the December 7, 2006 version of the Ski Area Management Guidelines.

59 to spend more money in the local community for accommodations, food, drink and other spending than do locals and day-skiers.

Table 2.12: Contribution of skiing to Banff and Jasper’s winter economy prior to 2000

• Initial expenditures of CDN$329 million associated with off-site visitor spending and ski hill operations in national parks, resulted in a province-wide value added economic impact of $351 million in 1999. • Approximately 9,200 person years of employment were sustained province-wide and may be attributed to the total impact of downhill skiing in the national parks. • Over CDN$133 million (1999) in taxation revenues accrued to all three levels of government combined. The federal share accounted for $71 million, the provincial share was $44 million, and the municipal governments (Banff, Lake Louise and Jasper) shared $18 million. • Imports, or leakages (i.e., revenue lost to other regions), in 1999 amounted to CDN$92 million. Imports from other provinces totalled $56 million and from other countries $35 million. Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers, 2000

Table 2.13 illustrates the economic disparity between local and day-skiers and the long-haul destination visitors, particularly visitors from other countries. The PWC (2000) report indicates that in 1997/1998, 45% of skiers were day-skiers, while 35% were destination and 20% were overnight skiers. The total daily expenditure during the 1997-98 ski season for regional skiers from Alberta and other Canadian centres spending at least one night in the parks was $66. For U.S. skiers it was $151 and for overseas destination skiers it was $144 (PriceWaterhouseCoopers, 2000). In comparison, a local or day-skier from Calgary skiing in Banff may spend about $50 for on-hill food and beverages plus the cost ($75) of a lift ticket. These values represent 1999 dollar values and these values could be higher in 2009/2010. Table 2.13 reports the amount of average overnight per person expenditures by expenditure type at ski resorts in the parks. These costs do not include the cost of a lift ticket. The PWC (2000) report provides information about the average length of stay of a destination skier. Visitors stayed 3.97 nights in the parks and spent, on average, $151 per day. Destination skiers provide the local economy with substantial added socio-economic benefits from value-added services, employment and tax recovery. The PWC report suggests regional and long-haul destination skiers make up 50% of skiers and account for

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77% of expenditures. The current and future economic impacts from regional and long-haul destination skiers likely will continue to be a significant contribution to the Banff and Jasper National Parks winter economies. The PWC report infers also that for skiing- dependent businesses to be reasonably profitable in the future, they will need to attract more regional and destination skiers. It is my opinion that if other regional, national or international ski resorts close because of the growing effects of climate change in the 2020s and 2050s, many skiers that visit those ski resorts may elect to travel the greater distance to enjoy high quality skiing opportunities that may still exist at the high elevation ski resorts in Banff and Jasper National Parks.

Table 2.13: Average overnight skier per person expenditures in Alberta and other Canadian ski resorts

(After PriceWaterhouseCooper, 2000; in Canadian dollars)

Moen and Fredman (2007) examined the economics of ski resorts in Sweden, reinforcing the idea that many natural, social, geo-political and economic factors, apart from the impact of climate change, affect the socio-economics of skiing businesses. The effects of climate change is just one more thing skiing-dependent businesses will need to contend with in the future. Moen and Fredman (2007) break up the length of the ski season for the period 2070 – 2100 into three blocks: early season with 38 ski days, mid-season with 90 days and late season with 34 days (see Table 2.14). If the length of the ski season is shortened by the

61 effects of climate change, then Moen and Fredman suggest that reduction in ski season can be converted into potential loss of revenue by the ski resort.

Table 2.14: Reduction in skiable days and total expenditures under the climate scenarios RH-B2 (low warming impact scenario) and RE-A2 (high warming impact scenario) for 2070 - 2100.

RH-B2 RE-A2 (low warming impact) (high warming impact) current Reduced Reduced Period ski season Reduced Reduced expenditures expenditures (days) ski season ski season (Million (Million (in days) (in days) Euros ) Euros ) Early: Nov (24) – 38 -32 (-85%) -32.7 -38 (-100%) -38.5 Dec 31 Mid: Jan – March 90 0 (0%) 0.0 -24 (-27%) -80.3 Late: April – May (4) 34 -32 (-95%) -72.4 -34 (-100%) -76.2 TOTALS 162 -64 (-40%) -105.2 -96 (-60%) -195.0 (After Moen and Fredman, 2007)

Although Moen and Fredman’s (2007) timeframe (2070s - 2100s) differs considerably from my study’s 2020s and 2050s timeframes, the effects of climate change on the ski season is nonetheless a significant example of how dramatic the possible loss of ski season and potential lost revenue may be in the future. The climate scenarios suggest that the early and late portions of the ski seasons may be lost while the mid-season will be unaffected under low impact scenario RH-B2 and experience a 27% reduction in ski season length under scenario high impact scenario RE-A2. Based on the amount of reduction of ski season length, the reduced expenditures by skiers at skiing-dependent businesses may be calculated for each scenario. Table 2.14 illustrates for the two climate scenarios the loss of expenditures from skiers by businesses potentially ranges from 105 to 195 million Euros annually. Because Sweden’s ski resorts are at low elevation with limited vertical drop, Moen and Fredman (2007) suggest few adaptation and alternative strategies exist other than snowmaking and building new ski resorts further north in Sweden. The challenge with building resorts in the north is that they are further away from the populated urban centres where most Swedish skiers live. Alternatives to skiing during the winter are few since

62 many alternatives, such as snowmobiling, also depend on snow cover or freezing temperatures for ice cover. Moen and Fredman (2007: p. 431) suggest developing four- season resorts as a means to counteract the “negative economic effects from climate change … as such a strategy will also have positive social effects on traditional winter destinations as seasonal variations in job opportunities are bridged over”. Snowmaking remains the most viable adaptation for ski resorts to increase or stabilize the length of the ski season and increase inter-annual snow reliability (Moen and Fredman, 2007; Scott, 2006b; and Scott, et al. 2006). IPCC (2001: p. 770) addressed the uncertainty of putting a value on the tourism sector: Until systematic nation-level analyses of economically important recreation industries and integrated sectoral assessments for major tourism regions have been completed, there will be insufficient confidence in the magnitude of potential economic impacts to report a range (based on disparate climate, social, technical and economic assumptions) of possible implications for this sector.

Likewise, Scott et al. (2005: p. 50) believe there is not enough research done to date “to even speculate on the potential magnitude of economic losses in the US ski industry”. Moen and Fredman (2007) add that it is desirable for industry, specifically the tourism industry, to examine potential economic effects that climate change may cause and identify the measures to counteract the effects on the broader tourism economic system. Doing this may lead to the creation of new and reduced restrictions by government policies. For ski tourism, that may mean allowing new ski resorts to be created and allowing existing ski resorts to expand skiable terrain and snowmaking capability. Moen and Fredman (2007) point out that the economic impacts of climate change on ski resorts in Sweden are only starting to be felt, and may not be experienced fully for some time. That, they say, raises a number of important future economic-oriented questions for the ski tourism sector; what will the future dynamics of supply and demand be, for instance? Given the projection of fewer skiable days, Moen and Fredman wonder whether some people will stop skiing. They suggest that with increasing costs and fewer days available to ski, and with the possibility that the best ski resorts remaining in operation in

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Sweden in the future will be located at greater distances from urban centres, fewer people may engage in skiing. Both Swedish and international skiers (13% are foreign skiers in Sweden) may reduce the number of times during the ski season they ski and some may simply quit skiing all together (Bürki et al., 2003). Citing Swedish estimates of current participation in skiing, population size, other complex social mechanisms and current growth rates (skiing has grown in the past 20 years in Sweden), Moen and Fredman (2007) feel the economic losses to the ski tourism sector actually may be greater by 2100 than Burki et al. (2003) estimate to occur. Moen and Fredman (2007: p.433) note: “Changed behaviour in relation to reliability of snow conditions will thus have strong effects on the economy of the affected ski areas”. Moen and Fredman’s conclusion encompasses not only the ski resort itself, but also extends to the businesses that are dependent upon the ski resort. Changes to the alpine ski sector in Sweden, and likely elsewhere around the globe, have implications for the economic sustainability of the sector over the long-term. For example, a shorter ski season has impacts on employment opportunities for reliable and local populations dependent on the ski resorts for winter employment. Moen and Fredman suggest that a possible future rescue scenario for ski resorts may be the creation of four-season tourism centres and resorts that may provide improved and more stable socio-economic conditions. Banff and Jasper are already four-season tourist destinations, thus, a decline (or increase) in skiing may be problematic for winter tourism, but would not be the end of tourism because of strong summer tourism. Shaw and Loomis (2008) suggest an economic framework that allows researchers to model both direct and indirect effects of climate change on users of outdoor recreational resources, including skiing. Many aspects of the economic impacts derived from the effects of climate change mostly focus on greenhouse gas emissions, but some analyses reference the possibility that climate change may actually be beneficial to some sectors while others may be decimated. An example of the possible benefits of climate change may be increased ski tourism in the Canadian Rockies. Shaw and Loomis (2008) indicate that the economic literature neglects to identify or explore the potential benefits from the effects of climate change for outdoor recreational

64 activities. It is possible that as ski resorts decline or close, skiers may shift from their normal ski area to another more distant site. Based on a skier preference survey, Shaw and Loomis (2008: p. 261) report that “49% of skiers would choose another ski resort when snow conditions are poor at one area, and 32% of skiers would ski less often. The basic point is that there is evidence that visitation will be influenced by climate change, and, for some activities, the effect will be substantial”. Harrison et al. (2001) reports on the growing effects of climate change on snow cover conditions in the Scottish Highlands. Harrison and his collaborators do not focus specifically on skiing, but rather write about the socio-economic and environmental implications of climate change on snow sports. They identified a climatic trend since the late 1970s indicating the number of days during the winter that snow lies on the ground at low elevations in Scotland is decreasing. From this finding and other related research, Harrison and his collaborators suggest that climate change may be having a deleterious effect on snow sports, including skiing in the Scottish Highlands. They conclude (2001: p 297) that “changes in the depth and duration of snow cover across Scotland have a direct influence on a range of socio-economic activities…” not only on low elevation activities, such as skiing. The socio-economic activities Harrison et al. (2001) mention include businesses that rely on tourist and recreational activities that depend upon reliable winter snow cover at all elevations in the Highlands. Alarm bells rang for Harrison et al. (2001) when climate records indicated that, during the end of the 1980s in the Scottish Highlands, there was little or no snow cover at low elevations to accommodate snow sports. Beniston (1997) also points out that the low snow cover conditions in Scotland had not been seen in climate records for at least 700 years. Harrison adds that high elevation areas in the Scottish Highlands experienced little change in the period that snow cover lays on the ground, even with increasing mean winter temperature. That finding may be attributed partly to an increase in winter precipitation as snow at high elevations and the rugged topographic setting. Harrison et al. (2001) notes precipitation levels in the Scottish Highlands have been found to be closely related to the

65 atmospheric pressure patterns found in the mid tropospheric zone and changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index19. Harrison et al. (2001) surveyed tourism businesses to determine whether the changing snow cover in the previous decade had socio-economic effects on the business or organization, and whether the businesses had to make changes to their operational plans to avoid detrimental effects. Respondents indicated that the greatest socio-economic effects were on snow sports like skiing. The effect mentioned most often by respondents was a shorter ski season at low elevations resulting in fewer operational days for skiing infrastructure and reduced revenue. The respondents’ general impression was that skiing in the Highlands was unreliable from year to year, resulting in cancellation of skiing events.

Reductions in revenue from skiing activities have impacted directly on re- investment and staff has frequently had to be paid off…. As the snow cover has become less reliable, skiers have become more opportunistic in their behaviour patterns which make long-term management of commercial enterprises more difficult. Harrison et al. (2001:p 307)

Harrison et al. (2001) recognized that in 2001 there was insufficient information to reach any definitive answer about what the potential socio-economic effects of climate change may be on businesses. All they could do was to estimate from the respondent’s comments what the potential magnitude of the socio-economic impacts might be on businesses dependent on snow sports in the Scottish Highlands. This approach is similar to the approach I have taken with my study. Godfrey (1999) did not anticipate the profound effects that global events as SARS, 9/11, geopolitical turmoil and economic meltdowns would have had on global tourism, particularly ski tourism in North America. He did, however, acknowledge that one of the main markets for ski resorts in Banff and Jasper is skiers from the United Kingdom (U.K.). For many years, ski tour groups have descended on Banff and Lake Louise because businesses in Banff have been working with U.K. tour companies to bring 900 to 1,000

19 The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is a climatic phenomenon in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of atmospheric pressure at sea-level between the Icelandic low and the Azores high. Through east-west oscillation motions of the Icelandic low and the Azores high, it controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. Source: Wikipedia accessed February 16, 2010.

66 skiers a week starting from the week before Christmas until Easter20. These U.K. tour groups and individual U.K. skiers have proven to be revenue-positive for the skiing- dependent businesses in Banff and Lake Louise (S. Best, pers. comm., 2006). Banff and Jasper’s marketing efforts focus largely on providing a total skier experience combined with high quality (champagne) snow. In the late 1990s, British skiers were shifting away from traditional destinations in the European Alps to North American locations (Godfrey, 1999). This, according to Sandy Best (pers. Comm., 2006), still remains the case, but he acknowledges that since 9/11 long-distance travel by British and other European travellers’ has been curtailed in favour of staying close to home. Best indicates there seems to be a greater interest in and willingness to travel to safe destination such as Canada and the U.S.A. In 1998, there was a 685% growth in British skiers to North America (Godfrey, 1999). Godfrey predicted that with the growing effects of climate change on snow and temperature conditions in the European and Australian Alps, ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera, specifically Banff and Jasper, could anticipate attracting an even larger share of the British and European markets. A number of factors determine whether or not British skiers want a ski holiday in Canada or the U.S.A. Godfrey (1999) indicates British skiers tend to be frugal and that nature affects their choice of destination. The most significant factors in choosing a destination are overall holiday cost, ease of access from airport to town and from town to the ski hill, convenience and amenities of ski resort destination, quality of snow conditions, range of terrain and skill level of ski slopes, and experience with the destination (Godfrey, 1999). Other more personal factors play out in British skiers’ travels, including income level, monetary exchange rate, age, skill level, and the past experience and frequency of skiing (Godfrey, 1999). Skiing is an expensive hobby and U.K. skiers are mostly from the upper end of the economic spectrum (Godfrey, 1999). Half of Godfrey’s sample indicated the cost of skiing in Canada was a little bit or much better than other possible ski destinations, such as the Alps or U.S.A. Fortunately for Canada, Godfrey (1999) states that poor snow conditions at most European Alps ski resorts in the late 1990s (and in the mid 2000s) sent skiers searching for

20 Source: SkiBig3, Banff

67 better skiing elsewhere and Canada’s major ski resorts were the beneficiaries. Godfrey indicates that British skiers cite snow conditions followed by variety and extensive skiable terrain as the primary factors when selecting a destination to ski. U.K. skiers also consider ease of access to the destination, proximity to ski resort(s), proximity of accommodations and amenities, off-hill amenities, and the general atmosphere of the resort itself when choosing a destination. High-elevation Canadian ski resorts may be able to continue offering domestic and international skiers a quality skiing experience in the 2020s and 2050s at a time when low and mid elevation ski resorts in the U.K., Europe and other parts of Canada and the U.S. may be struggling to sustain skiing. The ski resorts in Banff and Jasper are likely among the Canadian ski resorts able to provide quality skiing by the 2020s and 2050s, which makes the ski resorts in the parks a potentially desirable destination (Godfrey, 1999). U.K. skiers were asked by Godfrey why, with such an array of other international ski resorts to chose from, they wanted to ski in Canada. One-third (approximately 33%) of Godfrey’s respondents had previously skied in the Alps and the U.S. and wanted to try Canada as an alternative. Five percent said they were influenced by fellow skiers to try Canada. Godfrey found that U.K. skiers chose to visit either Whistler/Blackcomb or the ski resorts in the parks. In 2006, the ratio of destination skiers arriving from U.K. and other international locations versus regional skiers at Whistler/Blackcomb is 70:30 (i.e., 70% destination and 30% regional) while the ratio is reversed for the park’s ski resorts (30% destination and 70% regional skiers) (John X, pers. comm., 2006). Godfrey (1999) said that when U.K. skiers choose a destination, they consider not only the skiing opportunities but also the après skiing activities, such as shopping, fine dining, ‘pubs and clubs’ and the opportunity to participate in other snow sports, elements that add to the overall appeal of a ski resort destination. Of critical importance to the skiing-dependent operators in the parks is Godfrey’s (1999) comment that 70% of all U.K. skiers in 1998 were part of a pre-arranged ski package put together by tour operators in the U.K. The other 30% were individuals not part of a formal group tour package. This statistic remains nearly the same in 2006 (S. Best,

68 pers. comm., 2006). Ski tour operators in the U.K. seem to like Calgary and Vancouver as destinations because of the charter and direct scheduled flight service from the U.K. (Godfrey, 1999; S. Best and K. Roth21, pers. comm., 2006). Direct flight access for skiers from the U.K. and other European points of departure is not a trivial matter to skiers and definitely plays a role in skiers’ decision-making on the choice of destination (K. Roth and D. Coke-Kerr22, pers. comm., 2006). Direct charter or scheduled flights from Heathrow to Calgary, Edmonton or Vancouver are appealing because no stop-over or transfers are desired, reducing the possibility of loosing baggage and skis in transit. After a 9 or 10 hour flight, U.K. skiers do not want to spend a lot more of their time in travel mode getting to the ski resort (K. Roth and D. Coke-Kerr, pers. comm., 2006). The travelling distance and time needed to get from the airport to the ski resort is also a major consideration to skiers. Whistler, B.C., for example, is a three hour drive from Vancouver International Airport. Banff, Alberta is an hour and a half drive from the Calgary International Airport to Banff town site, while Jasper town site is about 4 hours drive from the Edmonton International Airport and three hours drive from Banff town site. Godfrey (1999) stated that the main selling point that attracts U.K. skiers now and likely in the future to the ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera is continued reliable snow cover, good overall skiing conditions (i.e., not very cold or too warm temperatures) at all elevational levels, a beautiful landscape, and ideal and challenging skiable terrain.

2.7 CHAPTER SUMMARY

There are several common themes and key points emerging from the literature. The most commonly cited theme is that high elevation ski resorts in inland/continental areas away from warm moisture sources seem to be faring better against the advancing effects of climate change on snow conditions than are low elevation, sun-exposed and close to marine influenced ski resorts. The importance of and capacity to make snow is commonly viewed as the most critical climate change adaptation technique for low and medium elevation ski resorts. When temperature conditions and water supply allow, snowmaking helps

21 Dr. Klaus Roth is a senior tourism specialist at Travel Alberta, Calgary. 22 Derek Coke-Kerr is the former Executive Director of Travel Alberta, Calgary.

69 supplement natural snow cover and increase snow reliability, particularly for sun-exposed and low elevation ski areas. Literature about the economics of skiing highlights that skiing in Canada and elsewhere around the world is big business. Some tourism businesses and communities exist solely on the basis of revenue generated from winter snow sports, with skiing being the primary activity. To help sustain skiing activity at areas impacted by the effects of climate change, it may be necessary to develop alternative winter activities for skiers and non-skiers, particularly for times when skiing conditions are less than ideal. One business strategy that has been implemented at ski resorts is to expand from a winter-only operation into a four-season operation by including golf and other warm weather activities to off-set a decline in skiing activity. Because the effects of climate change on skiing-dependent businesses is viewed by managers as long-term and low risk to their operations over any length business planning horizon, these managers will continue to remain reactive rather than proactive to the long- term effects of climate change on the socio-economics of skiing-dependent businesses. Continentality of ski resorts is a significant factor in the battle to buffer the effects of climate change. Ski resorts in mid-continent and in a cold continental climate zone benefit from a delay in the impacts of climate change, while ski resorts at low elevation and closer to warm, moist marine climate zones are beginning to feel the effects sooner (e.g. Cypress Bowl, Vancouver, B.C., venue for freestyle and moguls events at the 2010 Winter Olympics). Many low elevation ski resorts close to a large moisture source may succumb to the effects of climate change on snow cover within the next decade. Ski resorts in the European Alps are not only showing the signs of suffering from the warming effects of climate change, but also from the reluctance by banks and insurance companies to finance or insure ski resorts located below 1,500 m elevation in mountain regions of the Alps. How a ski resort copes with and adapts to the growing effects of climate change has a cascading effect on the socio-economic well-being of other skiing-dependent businesses. What is good for a ski resort may also bode well for other skiing-dependent businesses, all other factors held constant. Like the skiing-dependent businesses in the Alps, the skiing-

70 dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper can afford to be reactive rather than proactive by applying incremental adjustments to business strategy to adapt to the effects of climate change. The key points in the reviewed literature support my assertion that skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks may fare better in the 2020s and 2050s than many lower elevation ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. The author’s key points provide me with the knowledge that geographic, climatic and topographic factors play a major role determining whether or not a ski resort possess the characteristics needed to buffer and survive the effects of climate change in the 2020s and 2050s.

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CHAPTER 3: METHODOLOGY

3.1 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of my study was to gauge whether or not skiing-dependent businesses23 in Banff and Jasper National Parks are more or less vulnerable to and have the adaptive capacity to cope with the potential socio-economic effects resulting from the long- term physical effects of climate change. To help me gauge the level of vulnerability, I explored with the managers of skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks their perceptions regarding the possible socio-economic impacts and their businesses’ potential vulnerability from the increasing effects that climate change is projected to have on snow cover and temperature conditions in the 2020s and 2050s. As part of my assessment, I created a geographical factors index (GFI) to compare the geographic, climatic and topographic features of the four ski resorts in the parks to the other 20 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. Notwithstanding all the media attention, environmental advocacy group protests and the plethora of peer-reviewed scientific reports (IPCC 2001a, 2001b, 2007) claiming that climate change may have a negative influence on the natural environment, it is possible that, because of certain key geographical advantages present in Banff and Jasper National Parks that skiers and the skiing-dependent businesses in the parks may actually benefit from the changing climate. These businesses may benefit mostly from the potential improving socio-economic conditions brought about by the decline or closure from the effects of climate change on other regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. Ski resort operators in the Canadian Rockies report that they are beginning to notice varying degrees of the effects of climate change on vegetation, snow cover and temperature conditions (John X and D. Gibson, pers. comm., 2006). The extent and progression of the effects of climate change on snow cover in particular depend largely upon geographical factors, such as topography, physiography, elevation, climatic zone, elevation of the reliable snowline (snow reliability line), elevation of the daily freezing level, average snow

23 Skiing-dependent businesses include: ski resorts, accommodations, ski/board rentals and sales, ski clothing/retail, vehicle rentals and ski-shuttle buses.

72 cover depth (usually reported at the summit), slope aspect, source of water for snowmaking, and proximity to a major urban centre and major airport (to receive long-haul destination skiers). I divided this chapter into a description of my methodology and the specific approaches and methods I adopted. Discussion follows regarding my use of qualitative approaches and methods, the vulnerability assessment approach and the grounded theory tradition. Additional research method sections address: data collection methods; data analysis and synthesis; ethical considerations; and trustworthiness issues in my study.

3.2 QUALITATIVE RESEARCH DESIGN

I adopted a qualitative research approach to my study rather than a traditional deductive quantitative approach. I was not applying an existing theory or planning on using detailed statistical analysis techniques for my research situation. A quantitative approach traditionally is associated with a structured deductive positivist epistemology and normally involves the collection and statistical analysis of numerical data (Marshall, 1998). I deemed a quantitative approach as being unsuitable to addressing and answering my research questions. Qualitative research design refers to all forms of data collection and analysis relying on non-numeric data, interpretation and understanding. A qualitative study is closely associated with an interpretative and constructivist epistemology (Oliver 2004). Bloomberg and Volpe (2008: p. 80) describe the rationale behind conducting qualitative research as being primarily for the purpose of examining a social science situation or context that allows a researcher “to enter the world of others and attempt to achieve …. an emphasis on discovery and description”. My strategy of inquiry includes adopting several but not all elements of the grounded theory process (Glaser and Strauss, 1967). Qualitative research seeks variation in findings and delves into the essence of the topic of inquiry. The design of my study allowed me to remain open and flexible to the exploration of emerging ideas and concepts rather than following a more rigid and fixed approach typical of a quantitative approach. Adopting a qualitative research approach also allowed me to be an instrument of research, and placed me in the midst of the real-world situation of skiing-dependent

73 business managers. I was able to develop multiple data collection methods, which I triangulated to develop my findings, reach conclusions and answer my research questions (Bloomberg and Volpe, 2008). I designed my study around the collection and analysis of data and information obtained from literature, interviews with 60 managers of skiing-dependent businesses, output from the geographical factors index, interpretation of climate model scenarios for 2020 and 2050, and review and interpretation of economic reports about the importance of skiing in the Canadian Cordillera.

3.3 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT APPROACH

The skeletal framework upon which my study is built is a vulnerability assessment approach. This approach provides an over-arching organizational outline and five-stage structure (i.e., a ‘roadmap’) that allows for and ensures a logical, sequential and comprehensive investigation of a research situation. The vulnerability assessment approach has been used widely in research, for example, Smit and Benhin (2004); Smit et al. (1999); Smit et al. (2003); Smit and Pilifosova (2003); and others. Figure 3.1 illustrates the five stages of a vulnerability assessment approach as adopted by Natural Resources Canada (NRCan, 2004). The five stages helped me determine what data I needed to help answer my research questions. The five stages are: 1) identify and engage stakeholders (e.g., skiing-dependent business managers, government officials and marketing agency representatives; 2) assess qualitatively what the current socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses is in Banff and Jasper (based on interviews); 3) estimate or project from interviews and climate model projections what future skiing conditions may be like in the 2020s and 2050s; 4) estimate from interviews what the future socio-economic vulnerability of skiing- dependent businesses may be; and 5) assess the future options skiing-dependent businesses may have to adapt to or to cope with the socio-economic impacts that emerge from the effects of climate change.

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Figure 3.1: Five stages in a vulnerability assessment approach model

(Adopted from: Natural Resource Canada (NRCan), 2004: 17)

3.4 GROUNDED THEORY

The seminal work on grounded theory is credited to Glaser and Strauss (1967). They describe grounded theory as a systematic qualitative research methodology that emphasizes the development of substantive theory24 from concepts born out of (or ‘grounded’ in) data collected while conducting research (Glaser and Strauss, 1967; Martin and Turner, 1986). It was not my intent to develop substantive theory from my research, but rather answer my research questions and reach a conclusion about my research situation. The principle behind grounded theory is to develop substantive theory by following inductive rather than deductive processes of analysis and interpretation of data. Substantive theory “is based on the assumption that social science theory can be built from data collected systematically in a social setting” (Glaser and Strauss, 1967).

24 Charmaz (2006: 189) defines substantive theory as a “theoretical interpretation or explanation of a delimited problem in a particular area, such as family relationships, formal organizations, or education.”

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Grounded theory differs from other qualitative traditions (e.g., ethnography, phenomenology or case studies) in seeking to understand the meaning of a real life experience or situation, and generating theory related to that experience or research situation (Creswell, 1998). Grounded theory method involves the collection, sorting, coding, concepts and categorization of interview (among other methods) data. Data collection is based upon saturation of theoretical constructs on route to developing theory. From the coded data, theoretical concepts and higher-order categories are derived based on common themes or emerging patterns found in the data. From higher-order categories, it may be possible to develop findings and theoretical constructs that lead to further research and to the creation of substantive theory. A grounded theorist’s plan is to create substantive theory from the interaction and inter-relationships that exist between the concepts and categories. The process is relatively descriptive and supposedly “leads a researcher from codes to concepts to categories to theory” (Allan, 2003: 7). Grounded theory is not a process used to predict outcomes like traditional research methodologies. It is an approach that typically selects a theoretical framework and applies a pre-existing theory or tests a hypothesis in the study of a phenomenon (Allan, 2003). Grounded theory process leads to theory based on key data points collected (likely from face-to-face interviews) about a research situation. From the sorting and coding of data, concepts and categories of common themes or patterns emerge. The categories (or substantive theoretical concepts) serve as the basis for going the next step to create substantive theory. The goal of creating substantive theory is not always possible, as is in my research. An advantage of grounded theory is that data collection and analysis begins with the first interview. Another advantage is it “relies mainly upon inductive approaches … therefore it is useful for research which seeks to develop theory” (Hardy, 2005: p 108). Allan (2003) suggests that data coding processes amount to content analysis that is aimed at revealing underlying issues or key points of importance or interest embedded in data. According to Glaser and Strauss (1967), a key descriptor word or phrase taken from the field notes, transcripts or drawn from the researcher’s memory is one ‘code’. Codes are sorted and grouped together into a higher level of commonality called a concept. Concepts

76 are compared to form yet another higher level of commonality called categories. Glaser and Strauss (1967: 105-115) describe the process of continually comparing codes, concepts and categories with each other as the “constant comparative method”. Critical to the development of a category is the point that “if the data has been analyzed without a preconceived theory or hypothesis, that theory is truly grounded in the data, because it came from nowhere else” Allan (2003: 3). When the various concepts and categories are examined and evaluated or connected together, the connections that form may lead a researcher to an emerging substantive theory (Allan, 2003; Glaser and Strauss, 1967). “The resultant theory does not need separate justification and testing because it came from live data. More data will be collected in future … studies and the theory will be improved upon and amended to reflect real life” (Allan, 2003: 7). Glaser and Strauss (1967; Glaser, 1978) say the key methodological components of grounded theory are:

• Identify substantive area(s) of interest – the research situation reflected in the research and interview questions • Collect data related to each substantive area – interview questions • Open data coding - coding of key points from the interviews • Write memos to elaborate on coding, concepts and categories, and specify their properties, define relationships between categories, and identify data gaps • Conduct selective coding to generate themes and concepts within categories (i.e., within the interview questions) • Sort and organize codes, concepts and categories and develop theoretical findings for each interview question • Triangulate substantive theoretical findings from each category (interview question) • Conduct the literature review prior to and after developing an independent analysis • Write up substantive theory (Charmaz, 2006).

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The goal of my research was not necessarily to construct substantive theory, but rather to generate theoretical constructs from the perceptions of 60 skiing-dependent business managers that explore, explain, support and triangulate with the findings from the geographical factors index and the climate model output for Banff. I modified grounded theory practices during my study’s interview process to accommodate my research situation. For instance, I did not find it necessary to carry out more than one interview session with each participant (grounded theory calls for multiple interviews), and I used my pre-established interview questions (Appendix B) to guide, but not dominate, the interview process instead of allowing questions and answers to be unstructured and free-flowing, as proposed by Glaser and Strauss (1967). I felt there needed to be more focus (i.e., to find the answers to my research questions) to the interviews, otherwise questions and answers could wander and be irrelevant and of no importance to my study. I also used multiple data sources besides the interviews to arrive at a determination of socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses. Rather than conduct interviews with a sample of the skiing-dependent business managers, I approached all (100%) managers and obtained a 71% participation rate. The steps I followed were to locate, invite and interview managers of each skiing-dependent business. I recorded (with permission) the interview sessions and also took notes for each of the 11 questions. Following each interview (in the evenings), I reviewed the recording of each respondent’s answers to the interview questions and supplemented my notes with additional details and memo notations. Following my return from the field, I started sorting and coding each participant’s responses by interview questions. Given the volume of data I was beginning to accumulate, I started sorting and coding data from the first interview into a series of common and recurring key points or concepts (i.e., themes). The key concepts for each interview question were displayed in tables with the number of responses for each concept by skiing-dependent business sector. The quantitative evaluation and percentage indicates the frequency of each concept. Table 3.1 provides an example of how I treated and displayed the concepts and the relationship of each concept to industry sector.

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The concept generation stage allowed me to settle on five to 10 common themes – or concepts – for each interview question. In my case, each interview question forms a category from which I developed my findings or theoretical constructs. Chapter 4 displays the tables for each interview question/category. I compared and integrated the 11 theoretical findings from the interviews to arrive at my conclusions. I did not have a pre-conceived idea, bias, theory or hypothesis in mind to test my research situation against. While there may be established theories that could have been investigated and applied to my research situation from management and business literature, I chose to explore the research situation to see if a theory would develop to explain current and possibly future socio-economic reality for skiing-dependent businesses.

TABLE 3.1: Sample of themes and concepts generated for each interview question (category) by industry sector.

CATEGORY (by interview question) % What, if any, socio-economic impacts do Total

you foresee for your business if poor Ski shops Ski resorts Mid hotels Mid hotels Car rentals Large hotels snow conditions or cold/warm Small hotels Shuttle buses temperatures persist for many years?

THEMES/CONCEPTS No response or don’t know 3 1 4 5.9 No impact: skiers still come 1 3 4 5.9 Hard to predict impacts 1 1 1.5 Maintain business as usual 2 2 3 1 8 11.8 Serious damage; difficult to survive; 1 3 2 2 8 11.8 Bankruptcy or closure Shorter winter season; decline in # of skiers 3 1 4 5.8 Reduce staffing & winter operations/rates 2 1 1 3 7 10.3 Ride out winter; diversify winter products from skiers to other sports such as hockey 5 4 9 8 3 1 30 44 tournaments or corporate retreats Close business: rely on summer business 2 2 3 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=68) 68 100

One key consideration necessary to applying grounded theory is that the researcher needs to take steps to deliberately avoid injecting his/her personal bias into the study. If I had any bias going into my study (a researcher cannot be 100% bias free,

79 otherwise there would be no identified need or agenda to conduct a study), it was a bias based on my sense that everything I had learned about the effects of climate change on the natural environment was negative. I was curious to determine whether or not the effects of climate change would have the same effect on business. In Table 3.1, and similar tables in chapter 4, managers’ responses could be represented by more than one concept, thus resulting in more the 60 responses for each category/question.

3.5 RESEARCH POPULATION

I chose skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks to include in my research partly because of my personal interest and experience working previously in the parks, and partly because I have skied at or visited all four ski resorts in the parks. The criterion for selecting a business to be a participant was that it had to cater mostly, but not exclusively, to the needs of skiers. Thus, my study focused on ski resorts, ski shops, ski clothing shops, ski shuttle buses and skier accommodations because these businesses are predominantly focused on meeting the needs of regional and destination skiers without totally ignoring the needs of local and day-skiers, who normally do not use many of the services (except the ski resorts) offered by these businesses. Banff and Jasper National Parks were selected over other ski resort areas because they provide a unique management area for ski resorts compared with ski resorts located outside the park boundaries. There are rules of operation and development within the parks that are quite different and more restrictive from those found in the Provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. The parks are closely managed by Parks Canada Agency (Parks) under the National Parks Act and Regulations. Parks also administers the 2006 Ski Area Management Guidelines, which control current operations and future planning and development of the ski resorts. Park’s mandate is to maintain the ecological integrity of the parks while ensuring the use and enjoyment of the parks for all generations. This mandate presents management and operational challenges for both Parks and the ski resorts. Banff and Jasper National Parks are already well established four-season tourist destinations. The tourism business infrastructure is already well-developed and diverse to

80 provide for the needs of local residents, day-visitors and tourists throughout the year. Some businesses transform from summer to winter operations to cater to a different seasonal clientele. For example, bicycle rental and hiking gear shops become ski rental/sales and winter clothing shops during the winter. Businesses such as restaurants, B&Bs/PHAs25, liquor stores, pubs/lounges, grocery stores, hospitals, service stations, doctors/dentists, movie theatres, taxi cabs, tourist attractions (e.g., hot spring pool, gondola, museums, etc.) and general tourist retail shops are part of the year-around infrastructure and were deliberately not included in my study. They were not included because these types of businesses would, presumably, remain open year-around, whether skiers were in the parks or not, to meet the needs of local residents and other non-skiing visitors. Many decades ago, a large number of these businesses used to close during the winter months because there were too few locals, visitors and skiers in the parks to make it profitable to remain open. It is a different story today. They remain open today partly to accommodate increased local and winter tourist traffic, and partly to compete with their competition. I identified 84 skiing-dependent businesses in the parks, making it possible to invite 100% to participate in my study (see Table 3.2). Accommodations, ski resorts, ski shops and ski clothing retail stores make up the majority (85%) of these businesses. Sixty of 84 possible interviews were held, representing an overall participation rate of 71%. In Jasper, 15 of 21 possible interviews were conducted; 5 of 7 interviews in Lake Louise; 40 of 56 interviews were conducted in Banff. Appendix A provides a partial list of the organizations and individuals who agreed to be identified in my study. The other participants preferred to remain anonymous. After receiving University of Calgary ethics approval, but prior to arriving in the parks to conduct my interviews, I identified most of the skiing-dependent businesses in the parks through a variety of means, but mostly from advertising brochures and an Internet search. The names of the managers were obtained from the advertising material, by sending an e-mail request or by making a telephone call to the business. Letters requesting the

25 B&Bs and PHAs are Bed and Breakfast and Personal Home Accommodations. These are private homes that owners open (for a fee) to accommodate tourists, mostly in the summer. Few B&Bs/PHAs operate in the winter, and often those that do, do so only for the tax benefits afforded to individuals running these types of establishments.

81 business manager’s participation were mailed or e-mailed to these individuals. Interview times were set up with all those who responded voluntarily; follow up telephone or e-mails were made to those who did not respond within 10 days to determine their interest in participating and to set up additional interviews. Several businesses did not respond at all to my phone calls or preferred not to meet with me (after I identified myself) when I went into the business. In some cases, it required three or four attempts to meet with the manager. After the third or fourth approach, if I did not make contact with the manager, I excluded them from further consideration.

Table 3.2: Participation versus non-participation in the interviews

SKIING BUSINESSES Jasper Lake Louise Banff Total % Participation Participated in interviews yes no yes no yes no yes/total Lodgings 7 3 3 2 22 9 32/45 71% Vehicle rentals 1 3 - 0 3 0 4/6 66% Ski shops/winter clothing 6 - 1 - 9 5 15/22 68% ski shuttle buses - - - - 4 2 5/7 71% Ski resorts 1 - 1 - 2 - 4/4 100% Total participation 15 6 5 2 40 16 60/84 Participation by location 71% 71% 71% 71% 71 % overall

One large and five small hotels in the parks did not wish to be interviewed. Approximately 12 hotels in the parks are part of hotel chains (e.g., Decore Hotels or Mountain Park Lodges) and only one interview (with the General Manager) was necessary to understand the business plans of these hotels. For example, Banff Lodging Company operates eight hotels in Banff and preferred to provide me with a single corporate-level interview. Because the participant rate is high relative to the total number of businesses, the non-participation rate did not influence the outcome of my study. I also conducted interviews with several key government officials and marketing agency representatives to gain background information and contextual insight into how government and marketing officials view the importance of skiing in the parks. Names of these interviewees are included in Appendix A. These interviewees were selected a priori because of each person’s position or particular interest in ski tourism or climate change. For example, I interviewed five Parks Canada officials, including two in Calgary and three

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Field Unit Superintendents; two Travel Alberta representatives; one Alberta Economic Development/Tourism official; one Alberta Environment scientist; two marketing agency representatives in Banff; and the Mayors and Town Managers of both the Towns of Jasper and Banff. Each interviewee provided a perspective about how they viewed the socio- economic importance of skiing to the local economy in the parks.

3.6 DATA COLLECTION METHODS

I used multiple methods to collect data for analysis, synthesis and interpretation. The multiple methods are: a) creation and application of a geographical factors index to rate and rank 24 regional ski resorts; b) interviews with 60 skiing-dependent businesses; c) an assessment, evaluation and interpretation of climate model projections for snow cover and ski season length in scenarios 2020 and 2050; and d) an examination of the economic importance of skiing in the parks and Western Canada. These methods allowed me to triangulate between the data set findings. Each of the methods may be triangulated with the other methods. Following is a review of each method.

3.6.1 Geographical Factors Index

To assess and compare the relative vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks, it was necessary to compare the four ski resorts with the other 20 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. The other regional ski resorts constitute the regional ‘competition’ for the ski resorts in the parks. The regional ski resorts were identified by size and scale of operation, amount of skiable terrain, and the known or potential ability of the ski resort to draw or attract regional and destination skiers to the resort (see Table 3.3 and Figure 3.2). Small local or community ski hills, such as Hemlock Valley and Fairmont Hot Springs, were excluded from the study because they do not have the same drawing power as the larger regional ski resorts. To compare each of the 24 regional ski resorts against each other, I created the geographical factors index as a level playing field to allow for the comparison, and applied the index to achieve a value that allowed me to rate and rank each resort. Figure 3.2 shows the approximate location of the 24 regional ski resorts.

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TABLE 3.3: Regional ski resorts included in the geographical factors index

BRITISH COLUMBIA ALBERTA Apex Mt. Washington Castle Mountain Big White Panorama Lake Louise, Banff Cypress Bowl Red Mountain Marmot Basin, Jasper Fernie Silver Star Mount Norquay, Banff Grouse Mountain Smithers/Hudson Bay Nakiska Kickinghorse Resort Sun Peaks Sunshine Village, Banff Kimberly Powder Mountain Mount Mackenzie Whistler/Blackcomb Mount Seymour Whitewater

FIGURE 3.2: Location of 24 regional ski resorts in Canadian Cordillera

N

1 cm = approx 80 km

The importance of factoring in ski resort’s geographical, climatic and topographical characteristics is important because the effects of climate change are not likely to impact all ski resorts equally or over the same timeframe (Abegg, et al., 2007; Beniston, 2006, 2003,

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1997; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; Burki, et al., 2003a, 2003b; Elsasser and Burki, 2002; Elsasser and Messerli, 2001). The effects of climate change in mountain regions are expected to be progressively more noticeable over time and from low to high elevations. Table 3.4 lists the 14 parameters and the weighting I used in the geographical factors index. Table 3.5 provides the geographical factors index model.

TABLE 3.4: Geographical parameters and weighting factors

GEOGRAPHICAL FACTOR INDEX WEIGHT 1 Base elevation 5 2 Summit elevation 3 3 Skiable area 2 4 Average annual snow depth (often measured at the summit elevation) 1 5 Length of ski season 1 6 Average elevation of freezing line/snowline in latter half of ski season 2 7 Snowmaking capability 1 8 Climate type or zone 1 9 Slope aspect/orientation of major slope surface 2 10 Mix of skier-skill level terrain 1 11 Base development (on-hill accommodations and services) 1 12 Proximity to a major urban centre with direct ground access 1 13 Ease and safety of access to ski resort 1 14 Proximity (distance) to a major or international airport 1

Based on the literature and from discussions with two current and one former ski resort managers, the first 9 of the 14 geographical parameters found in the geographical parameter weighting scheme in Table 3.4 hold the key to delaying or buffering ski resorts against the long-term effects of climate change on snow cover and temperatures. The other five factors have a geographical nature, and thus are included. Ten of the 24 ski resorts were rated ‘high’ with an abundant measure of these 9 parameters; 7 were rated ‘medium’ and 7 were rated ‘low’. The 14 medium and low rated resorts did not rate as high because they did not have a sufficient measure of these parameters. Generally, the businesses that rely on the ski resorts are relatively as vulnerable as the ski resorts. If a ski resort is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, then by inference the business associated with the resort may be equally economically vulnerable to climate change.

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TABLE 3.5: Model for conducting geographical factors index for ski resorts

Geographical Measurement Scoring Data g ht

Factors Index g Value

parameters Ratin Wei Base elevation metres <500 (0); 501-800(1); … 1401-1600 (5); 0 5 0 >1601m (6) summit metres <1200m (0); 1201-1600m (1); 1601- 0 3 0 elevation 2000m (2); 2001-2500m (3); 2501- 2800m (4); >2801m (5) Skiable area hectares <200 (1); 201-400 (2); 401-1200 (3); 0 2 0 1201-2000 (4); 2001-2500 (5); 2501- 3000 (6); >3001 (7) Annual snow centimetres <30 (1); 31-100 (1); 101-150 (2); 151- 0 1 0 depth 200 (3); 201-300 (4); >301 (5) length of ski average # of skier <90 (1); 91-125 (2); 126-150 (3); 151- 0 1 0 season days 180 (4); >181 (5) elevation of metres 500-1000 (4); 1001-1400 (3); 1401-1500 0 2 0 snowline (2); 1501-1600 (1); >1601 (0) snowmaking not needed, yes not needed (3); yes (2); partial coverage 0 1 0 capacity (>80%),partial (1- (1); no capability (0) 79%), no capability climate zone marine, coastal, marine (1); coastal mountains (2); 0 1 0 or type interior, eastern interior plateau (3); ranges eastern mountain ranges/mountain mountain continental (4) continental Slope aspect S, E, W, N or south (0); southeast (1); southwest (1); 0 2 0 variations east (2); north (3); northeast (3); northwest (3) Mix of skier- expert, medium more expert (1); more novice (2); more 0 1 0 skill level novice intermediate (3); good balance of all terrain three (4) Base town on hill, townsite on hill (2); community nearby 0 1 0 development nearby, none (1); none (0) Proximity to ½, 1, 2, 3, 4 hours half-hour drive (3); one-hour drive (2); 0 1 0 urban centre two-hour drive (1); > than 2 hours (0) Ease of access easy; moderately easy (3); moderately difficult (2); 0 1 0 to resort difficult; difficult difficult (1)

Proximity to 1, 2, 3, 4 hours < 2 hours (4); 2.25 to 3 hours (3); 3.25 to 0 1 0 major airport travel time 4 hours (2); > 4.25 hours (1)

TOTAL RATING 0 0

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3.6.1.1 Steps to create and apply the geographical factors index

The steps I followed to create and apply the geographical factors index include: • Identify climatic, geographic and topographic characteristics that are necessary to design, build and operate a regional-scale ski resort.

• Identify geographic, climatic and topographic characteristics that have the potential to delay or buffer the effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions. Initially, 18 possible parameters were identified for consideration, but that number was reduced by a process of elimination to 14 parameters based on the criteria that all parameters had to be climatic, topographic and geographically-related factors common to all 24 regional ski resorts. These 14 parameters and weighting factors are listed in Table 3.5. Four of the initial 18 parameters were eliminated because they are not geographical factors (e.g., demographics of regional ski population; governance; human capital and social capital) or were not common (e.g., latitude) to all 24 regional ski resorts.

• Create the geographical factors index model based on the 14 common parameters. A weighted value was determined for five of the 14 parameters: elevation of the base and summit, skiable area, average elevation of freezing level and snowline, and slope aspect. The weighting values were determined from my discussions with interviewees familiar with ski resort operations (John X, Barry X, D. Gibson and S. Best, pers. Comm., 2006). For example, weighting for elevation was determined to be 5 (the highest weighting factor) for the base of operations based on current operating conditions in the spring and the projected reliable snowline elevation in the Canadian Cordillera in the 2020s and 2050s. All agreed, the higher the base of operations, the less likely the effects of warmer temperatures will have an effect (i.e., ablation) on snow cover.

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• Promotional brochures and websites for each of the 24 ski resorts were accessed to obtain topographic, climatic and geographic characteristics data for inclusion in the index. Additional topographic data were obtained from Google Earth and the Snow-forecast.com websites pertaining to slope aspect and daily freezing levels from February 1 to mid May (mid to late ski season). Freezing levels serve as a proxy for the reliable snowline, which is not normally measured at weather stations.

• The geographical data for each of the 24 ski resorts was inserted into a separate index sheet to derive a quantitative value or rating score for each resort (see Table 3.6).

• The geographical factors index rating for each ski resort allowed the numerical ranking of each resort against the other resorts. The resorts achieving the highest values of the 14 geographic factors likely have the characteristics that may help to delay or buffer the growing effects of climate change on snow cover and temperatures. The rating and ranking emphasizes the importance of such factors as base and summit elevations, amount of skiable terrain, climatic zone, reliability of inter-annual natural snow cover or has the capacity to make snow cover, proximity to a major urban centre, and proximity to a major airport for destination skiers.

• The geographical factors index ranking of ski resorts helped me identify which ski resorts may have the greatest likelihood of still being able to operate, all other business factors being held constant, by the 2020s and 2050s.

3.6.2 A description of geographical and topographical factors

Details of the 14 geographical and topographical factors included in the index are described below.

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3.6.2.1 Base elevation The base elevation (elevation of the bottom or lowest ski lift) is probably the most important geographic parameter because the greatest effects of climate change will be felt soonest at lower mountain elevations (Abegg et al., 2007; Beniston, 2003, 2006; Beniston et al., 1997; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; Bürki et al., 2003a, 2003b). The base elevation is given a weighting factor of 5 to reflect the importance of this parameter. The higher the base of a ski resort operation the more delayed will be the collateral effects of climate change on the ski resort. For a ski resort to operate there needs to be at least 30 centimetres of packed snow at the base elevation. The higher the elevation of the base the greater likelihood there will be sufficient natural and/or artificial snow on the ground. Often at the start of the ski season the natural snowline may be above the base elevation resulting in some resorts depending heavily on snowmaking to provide snow until natural snow arrives. Snowmaking is an adaptation that ski resorts increasingly will depend on in the future. Ski resorts with low base elevations may find it necessary to shift operations higher up on the mountain slopes to take advantage of the natural snow cover and colder temperatures found at higher elevations.

3.6.2.2 Summit elevation

The elevation of the ski resort’s summit is a significant geographic factor because it is at higher elevations that significant inter-annual reliable snow accumulations occur. High elevations are less affected by the warming temperatures at lower elevations. The elevation of the summit also reflects on the resort’s ability to offer skiers a high vertical rise and often provides sufficiently high elevation skiable terrain that attracts skiers. A high elevation summit also collects natural snow cover not found at mid and lower elevations. This natural snow cover eliminates the dependence upon snowmaking capability, which is nearly impossible or cost prohibitive at high elevations.

3.6.2.3 Skiable area

The scale or expanse of skiable terrain is critical for the skier-experience. Skiers desire wide-open terrain with long vertical runs. The greater the skiable area the larger the

89 ski resort, which in itself tends to attract skiers to the resort. Small, local ski hills with a small skiable area simply cannot provide a skiing experience sufficient to attract avid skiers, whereas ski resorts with vast high alpine and sub-alpine expanses generally tend to have high quality powder snow and greater appeal because they provide a better skiing experience.

3.6.2.4 Average annual snow cover

Reliable inter-annual natural snow cover is most important for any ski resort, but especially for high elevation ski resorts, particularly those ski resorts that have limited snowmaking capability. If there is insufficient natural or artificial snow cover, there is no skiing. A high quality skiing experience depends on at least 30 centimetres of packed snow cover at the base elevation and ideally 70 cm or more sufficient to cover slopes and hazards at mid and summit elevations. The effects of a warming climate on reliable, inter-annual natural snow cover may well have a significant impact on reliable snow cover throughout the mountains of British Columbia and Alberta by the 2020s and 2050s. Ski resorts that experience a lack of, or lose, sufficient snow cover because of rain or melting conditions will no doubt find it difficult to remain solvent and likely will close after a few years of consecutive poor skiing conditions.

3.6.2.5 Length of ski season

The length of each ski season speaks to its profitability and depends on the timing and location of natural and artificial snow cover. One thing that is certain in most of British Columbia and Alberta is that they will experience winter each year. Some years may be milder, some years may have less snow and some ski resorts may get more snow than other areas; conditions are the call of Mother Nature. The norm for ski resorts in Europe is a minimum of 100 skiable days annually to generate revenues to be profitable (Beniston, 2003; Scott, 2003). Most ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera exceed that minimum number of days by enjoying as many as 130 skiable days. Most ski resorts want to be open by mid November if possible, but most do not open until about December 1st. All ski resorts must be operable by the Christmas/New Year period. Likewise, the ski resorts want

90 to be able to operate during the Spring Break/Easter periods for schools and universities. If they miss these two critical times of year because of poor skiing conditions, then they will not be profitable enough during the rest of the ski season to end the season with a positive balance sheet. Skiers will rush to the ski resort that opens early to get a head start on the ski season, but there are fewer skiers hitting the slopes at the tail end of the ski season in April and early May when the snow is often the best of the ski season. Skiers may have had their fill of skiing by the end of the season, thinking about shifting into golf, or the ‘backyard effect’26 is influencing skiers’ thinking (C. Cotton, pers. comm., 2005).

3.6.2.6 Average elevation of freezing line/reliable snowline in latter half of ski season

The freezing and reliable snowline elevations determine where snow remains after falling to the surface. The snowline is most noticeable when viewed from a distance after snow is deposited on high elevation mountain peaks in the fall/early winter months. The snowline separates a zone of snow on a mountain side from a zone of bare ground (i.e., a line) below. Eventually, the snowline may reach the valley bottom elevation and remain at that elevation until spring melt begins. The warming effects of climate change on snow and temperature conditions are causing the reliable snowline to rise in elevation gradually. The expectation in the European Alps is that the approximate 1,200 m elevation of the snowline will rise by the 2050s to approximately 1,600 m elevation. The same is anticipated to occur in the Canadian Cordillera. The snowline is variable in Alberta and British Columbia’s mountain continental climate zone, but it ranges around 1,200 m for most of the winter and can rise to 1,400 m (valley bottom at Banff) following extended periods of snow free weather. No agency records the actual or estimated snowline in the parks or elsewhere so the daily freezing level and snowfall level serves as a proxy for an estimate of the snowline. The snowfall level, distinct from the snowline, is approximately 300 metres lower than the freezing level. That is a rough estimate because the daily freezing level and snowfall level can fluctuate considerably from day to day, whereas the snowline remains reasonably steady. The snowfall level, however, forms a line on the surface where snow sticks to the

26 Crosby Cotton (pers. comm., 2005) says the ‘backyard effect’, usually associated with Calgarians, occurs when skiers find no snow in their backyard, so their sense is that there is not any snow in the mountains either.

91 ground surface and does not immediately ablate or evaporate as rapidly as the snow cover below the snowfall level and freezing line, where ablation is more pronounced because of the warmer temperatures and possibly from rain fall.

3.6.2.7 Snowmaking capability

The ability to make snow cover at a ski resort is an adaptation that has made it possible for many ski resorts to operate when they may otherwise not have sufficient snow to do so, particularly if the resort does not have reliable natural snow cover. Snow making is usually used to build an early-season base or to fill in bald areas on slopes, but only if the snowmaking system is able to reach these areas. Snowmaking is most used near the base elevation where temperatures are at or near the freezing temperature and where snow cover is difficult to retain on the ground. The high elevation ski resorts usually do not need to depend on snowmaking. Snowmaking usually is restricted to lower valley elevations where there is a readily accessible supply of creek/river water. All four ski resorts in the parks are using snowmaking on the lower slopes with a permit from Parks Canada to draw limited amounts of stream flow depending upon flow conditions. Mount Norquay claims to be able to make snow over 80% to 90% of the ski hill. Sunshine Village is making snow on the ski out. Marmot Basin is covering about 1% of its lower slopes using water from the resort’s grey water ponds. Adding snowmaking to a ski resort’s adaptation capability makes a major difference to the length of ski season and in retaining snow cover at lower elevations. Without this measure many ski resorts would open later in the season and close earlier. Some resorts (e.g., Cypress Mountain, Grouse Mountain and Mount Seymour) may not be able to open in future even with snowmaking capability because temperature conditions may not be conducive to retaining artificially produced snow at key times of the ski season. These resorts are at higher risk than other regional ski resorts from the effects of climate change.

3.6.2.8 Climate type or zone

The moisture content (i.e., dryness) of the snow cover and the elevation of the reliable snowline differ from one climatic zone in the Canadian Cordillera to another. The

92 closer a resort’s proximity to major moisture source like the Pacific Ocean the warmer and moister will be the snow; the elevation that defines rain, rain/snow mix and snow also depends on the synoptic weather system patterns. The further away from the maritime/marine influence the drier the snow cover becomes and the less moisture content (i.e., snow water equivalent/SWE) to turn the snow to ice. For instance, snow falling on the leeward side of the coastal mountains tends to have higher moisture content or snow water equivalent than the mountains of the central plateau regions (e.g., Kamloops, Kelowna). The Eastern Interior mountain ranges (i.e., mountain ranges around Revelstoke and Golden) of British Columbia tend to be dryer than the coast mountains, but still with a high snow water equivalent. The snow cover in the Canadian Rocky Mountains tends to be drier with lower snow water equivalent depending upon the track of synoptic patterns coming from the west, north or south. The mountain continental climate found in the Canadian Rockies results in ideal dry, ‘champagne’ powder snow at most elevations from valley bottom to summit peak. Even in the dry interior areas of British Columbia, ski resorts with high base and summit elevations, such as Apex and Whitewater, tend to get drier snow cover throughout the winter months than do the coastal ski resorts. The dry snow is easier to groom or ‘snow farm’ than wet or icy snow cover at lower elevations because it has less moisture content, more air content and is lighter and easier to move. So, the climate zone that a ski resort is located in is a significant geographical factor to consider in terms of quality of snow, and the climate zone is a factor that helps to delay the advancing effects of climate change because dry snow is normally found at higher elevations.

3.6.2.9 Slope aspect/orientation of major slope surface

The latitude and aspect of a ski slope along with the angle of ski slope exposure toward the sun throughout the day during the ski season plays a significant role in the amount and quality of snow cover. The more direct or vertical solar radiation hits a ski slope surface the more radiant energy is absorbed from the sun (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004) depending upon the degree of albedo. The effect of latitude also is significant for radiant energy absorption because the lower the angle of solar radiation in mid latitudes during the winter months the less its effect on ablation of the snow cover. Ski

93 resorts with slopes that have south, southeast and southwest facing aspects during the winter months will receive the most direct radiant energy during a clear (sunny) day, while ski resorts with slopes facing north, northwest, northeast, east and west will receive far less direct radiant energy resulting in less melt/sublimation during a sunny day. The irony is that skiers want to ski on sunny slopes.

3.6.2.10 Mix of skier-skill level terrain

Many ski resorts report the percentage of slopes suitable for novice, intermediate and expert skiers. The percentage of the different category of slopes included in the GFI addresses the skill level of skiers and, thus, the appeal of a ski resort based on a skiers’ level of experience. For example, Banff’s Sunshine Village reports its slopes are 20% for beginners, 55% for intermediate and 25% for expert skiers and is a ski resort with more challenging terrain suitable for more experienced skiers. The mix of slope gradients for novice, intermediate and expert skiers infers knowledge about the spread of opportunity for all three levels of skier skills to enjoy the ski resort. In this case, Sunshine is more suitable to skiers of intermediate and expert skills. A good balance of all three skier-skill level terrain suggests the ski resort can attract and cater to a larger number of skiers with various degrees of skill. Ski resorts with a majority percentage of expert slopes will attract fewer novice and intermediate skiers, while a majority percentage of novice slopes will attract fewer intermediate and expert skiers. The mix of skier-skill level terrain also speaks to some degree about the level of safety of the ski slopes from the potential risk of avalanches: the steeper the slopes, the greater potential avalanche risk.

3.6.2.11 Base development

As the ski resorts in the parks demonstrate, it is not necessary to have base development at a resort. Including base development in the GFI addresses the issue of appeal or attraction of a ski resort for skiers. Skiers often like the appeal of ski-in and ski- out convenience. Sunshine Village is an anomaly in the parks because it is the only resort to have on-hill accommodations, a legacy from the past. Other than that, the ski resorts only have day-lodges and parking lots at or near the base elevation. Most of the other 20 ski

94 resorts outside of the parks have some form of real estate/village development to attract skiers. Some ski resorts are developing as four-season operations to ensure continued economic viability. Base developments provide services beyond the facilities necessary to support a ski resort, including expanded on-hill (ski in and ski out) accommodations, food & beverage, and other services. Some ski resorts, like Whistler, have become full-service, four-season operations with such amenities as a designer golf course, conference facilities, permanent residences, staff residences, grocery stores, service stations and private real estate development aimed at time-share and ownership for part-time residence. The possibility of ownership in real estate, usually condos, is a drawing card developers use to commit people to come to the ski resort rather than going elsewhere to ski. The ski resorts in the parks, on the otherhand, draw on the year around services and facilities located in nearby Towns of Jasper, Lake Louise and Banff. The advantage for ski resorts in the parks is that they do not incur the expense of developing a town site with ski-in, ski-out convenience at the base of the ski resort to attract skiers. Skiers staying in the parks have options to ski at multiple ski resorts (including ski resorts outside the parks) rather than just the nearby resorts. This is of importance to skiers, particularly if snow conditions vary from one ski resort to another in the region.

3.6.2.12 Proximity to a major urban centre with direct access

The essential ingredient for a ski resort is skiers and critical mass is absolutely necessary, particularly as skiers’ demographics change and the cultural mosaic shifts to non-skiers. Skiers for the ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera are found in greater abundance mainly in urban centres like Vancouver’s Lower Mainland, Calgary, Edmonton and the many smaller cities within the interior of British Columbia. These urban centres provide the regional skier base ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera depend on season after season. But, the number of skiers is declining so there is intense competition to attract existing skiers. The ski resorts also depend heavily upon long-haul destination skiers who often come to the major ski resorts as part of a ski vacation package. Many middle and older-aged skiers have stopped or reduced the amount of skiing because of having young families in school, costs of a family ski day, available time from work, distance to travel,

95 concern about injury later in life, and a feeling of “done that.” Ski resorts are challenged to attract more skiers from other parts of the country and the world. Since, by the 2050s, there likely will be fewer skiing opportunities elsewhere in the world, such as the European Alps, U.K., Australia, Japan because of the effects of climate change, it is possible that many people in these locations will seek to ski at the remaining ski resorts, particularly in the Canadian Cordillera, that have been less impacted by the effects of climate change.

3.6.2.13 Ease of access to ski resort

The ability to make a safe return trip from a ski resort is a significant consideration in the mountain valleys of the Canadian Cordillera. Apart from the often steep, snow- covered/icy and torturous roads into high elevation ski resorts, potential avalanches present an ever-present road hazard and safety risk in some mountainous areas. The presence of these types of road/access conditions may be a deterrent to skiers who would prefer a safer trip to a ski resort, particularly if travelling with family. Even travelling on the Sea to Sky Highway to Whistler presents challenges during the rainy ski season. At least one ski area (Hudson Bay at Smithers, B.C.) frequently (most of the winter months due to snow covered or icy road conditions) require motorists to chain up their vehicles before venturing up mountain access roads (personal experience). Thus, ease of access to the geographic location of the ski resort is included as one of the geographical factors in the index. Compounding snow and ice-covered mountain roadways is the hazard that darkness brings to a motorist at the start and end of a ski-day. Ski resorts that have high quality skiing and are relatively easy to access by vehicle are safer and present more favourable conditions for many cautious skiers. The driving distance to a ski resort from a skier’s home base is also a consideration to many skiers, particularly if they are toting the family along. A long road trip to a remote or distant ski resort, often the preference of avid skiers and riders, is less desirable than a short quick trip to a local or regional ski resort for skiers with families.

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3.6.2.14 Proximity to a major or international airport

Many of the larger ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera, such as Whistler/Blackcomb, Sunshine Village and Lake Louise, depend on long-haul destination skiers. Whistler/Blackcomb depends for 70% of its skiers on destination skiers, while Sunshine/Lake Louise/Mt. Norquay depend on 30% destination skiers arriving at the Calgary International Airport. Most long-haul skiers fly to a major international airport and rent a vehicle or take a shuttle bus to a ski resort. Factors that skiers consider when flying to a ski resort include the number of plane changes (preferring direct flights) and travel time from the airport to the ski resort (D. Coke-Kerr and K. Roth, pers. comm., 2006). The shorter the time from airport to hotel/ski resort the better. For Whistler/Blackcomb the travel time is 2 ½ - 3 hours; for Banff National Park, travel time is 1 ½ hours to Banff town site and 2 ½ hours to Lake Louise. For Jasper National Park, travel time to Jasper and Marmot Basin in Jasper is a 4 ½ hour bus ride from Edmonton and 5 hours from Calgary. Edmonton International Airport receives a smaller number of charter flights from Europe each week; Calgary International Airport receives two to four (and sometimes more) charter flights from Europe each week on top of the daily scheduled Air Canada, Lufthansa and British Airways flights. Ski resorts in the B.C. Interior and the East Kootenays have limited air access to the ski resorts, consequently the resorts depend mostly on local and regional skiers. The airports are too small to accommodate large charter aircraft, which could bring in more destination skiers to the region. Currently, for destination skiers to access the ski resorts in the Interior of B.C., the skiers would need to change aircraft in Calgary or Vancouver and take smaller aircraft to the small airports, such as Castlegar/Nelson or Smithers, B.C. Although four B.C. Discussions with managers suggests that airports at Cranbrook, Golden and Revelstoke may be upgraded in the future to accommodate large charter aircraft. If this occurs, then it will make it possible for more destination skiers to directly access ski regions that are currently more difficult to access.

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3.6.2.15 Summary of geographical factors

The 14 geographical parameters included in the geographical factors index serve to evaluate some of the key geographical factors that currently affect a ski resort or skiers. Notwithstanding, the effects of climate change may be experience to some degree by all ski resorts, the geographical factors may be the key for some ski resorts to attract more regional and destination skiers to parts of the Canadian Cordillera as the effects of climate change on snow cover and temperatures are felt sooner elsewhere around the globe. If the ski resorts in the parks can capture more market share in the 2020s and 2050s, the businesses dependent upon the success of the ski resorts may, too, profit in the future, all other factors held constant.

3.6.3 Interview method

I adopted grounded theory as the qualitative research methodology and used semi- structured, face-to-face interviews with 60 skiing-dependent business managers as the main data collection method. Figure 3.3 illustrates the steps followed in developing the interview process. Additional interviews were held with numerous government (federal, provincial and municipal) officials and three marketing agency representatives. The interviews with government and marketing representatives served mainly to provide me with a context and background information about the history of skiing in the parks and importance of skiing to the winter economies of Banff, Lake Louise and Jasper townsites. These latter interviews were not included in the analysis because they did not provide insight into the business or operating circumstances of the skiing-dependent businesses in the parks. I was interested in learning what the perceptions were among the 60 skiing- dependent business managers interviewed regarding the social and economic importance of skiing within Banff and Jasper National Parks, and what their perceptions were about the potential impacts on skiing-dependent businesses should a ski resort be forced to reduce or close operations because of the effects of climate change. Interviews with the skiing- dependent business managers served as the primary data source for analysis, synthesis and interpretation about how the managers of these businesses perceived the possible socio- economic impacts from climate change on their business.

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FIGURE 3.3: Steps in developing and carrying out the interview process

Develop interview Government interviewees questions based on Code and develop vulnerability Identify and Skiing- Conduct concepts, assessment invite dependent interviews categories and on need interviewees businesses to answer and findings research Ethics questions Marketing approval agencies

3.6.3.1 Government officials

Interviews with key elected and government officials, although not part of the analysis, were pre-arranged on an a priori basis with the intention of gaining specific insight from these people into how all three orders of government viewed the importance of skiing to the parks’ winter economy, and how that economy could be affected (both positively and negatively) from the projected long-term effects of climate change on snow and temperature conditions. Each government official was contacted in advance by mail and invited to participate. A follow up telephone call or an e-mail was made five to 10 days later to determine agreement to participate. A date, time and location were set for the interview. Only one senior provincial government official turned down my invitation to participate citing no knowledge or understanding about the topic. Prior to each government interview, each participant was sent by e-mail or mail an informed consent form (Appendix D) to review and sign prior to the interview. In every case, the interviewees had not pre-read or signed the informed consent and, thus, the informed consent form was presented a second time to each interviewee at the start of the interview to allow them to read and sign before the interview proceeded. The informed consent form provided information about the aim of the research study and asked for the interviewees’ agreement (or not) to allow the interview to be recorded and whether the interviewee agreed to be identified in the study or preferred to remain anonymous. All agreed to be recorded and two preferred to remain anonymous.

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Once the informed consent form was signed, I proceeded with each interview, keeping a recorded account of the interview and taking field notes of the managers’ responses and other comments to each of the questions posed (Appendix B). Based on the principles and practices of grounded theory, the questions were used only as a guideline to help keep the interview focused on the topic. Each interview took between 40 and 60 minutes to complete. Field notes were reviewed following each day’s set of interviews to determine any content that could be included in subsequent interviews.

3.6.3.2 Marketing agency representatives

Interviews with Travel Alberta, SkiBig3 and Banff Lake Louise tourism marketing agency representatives were arranged a priori with the intention of gaining specific insight into how marketing agencies viewed the scale and importance of ski tourism to the park’s winter economy, and how they felt the economy could be changed (either positively or negatively) from the long-term effects of climate change on snow and temperature conditions.

3.6.3.3 Skiing-dependent business representatives

The businesses selected for interview, as described previously, were the four ski resorts, all ski shops, all skiing and winter apparel retail shops, all ski shuttle buses, all vehicle rentals and all types of accommodation that remained open during the winter months accommodating over-night and long-stay skiers. Seventy one (71%) percent of all skiing-dependent businesses agreed to participate in my study. All of these businesses had summer operations. For some, the focus shifted from snow to non-snow activities, such as hiking, climbing or cycling. Skiing-dependent businesses initially were identified as potential participants in the study through web searches for each of Jasper, Lake Louise and Banff. Some businesses missed during the initial scan were identified when I arrived in each community. In the end, 100% of the skiing-dependent businesses were identified. Contact information for each business was obtained from the websites, phone book or advertising media. If the managers’ names were not evident, I phoned or e-mailed to obtain the name(s) of the

100 general or senior manager of the business. I mailed or e-mailed a letter of invitation to participate in my study. If I did not hear back from a business after a 5 to 10-day period, I followed up with telephone or e-mail to determine the manager’s level of interest in participating in the study. Interviews were set up with all those agreeing to participate. Once I arrived in Jasper, Lake Louise and Banff it was possible to identify several previously unknown skiing-dependent businesses. I approached each of the managers of these businesses and invited them to participate. A letter explaining the aim of the study and the Informed Consent Form (Appendix D) were left with each manager to read in preparation for an interview. Also, while in each town those businesses that had not previously responded to the initial invitation were visited to invite them a second time. By the time interviews were completed in each community, 100% of the skiing-dependent businesses in that community had been identified, contacted and invited to participate in the study. Only 29% of skiing-dependent business managers in the parks declined to participate, stating a lack of time, lack or interest or they were not available to arrange an interview. Four blocks of time of one-hour each (two in the morning: two in the afternoon) were set out to conduct interviews each day (except weekends). Each interview took 40 to 60 minutes to complete. Given the managers schedules, several interviews had to be re- scheduled to a more convenient time. The interview questions posed to each manager provided a focus for consistent data collection, but the questions simply served as a starting point and an ‘ice breaker’ that allowed the managers to expand on their responses. The step by step process to gather interview data is Appendix C.

3.7 DATA ANALYSIS AND SYNTHESIS

My strategy with the interview data was to look for patterns or common themes emerging out of the managers’ responses to each of the 11 survey questions. Initially, I downloaded each interviewee’s response to each question. I began sorting and coding responses based on similar or common responses. As coding progressed I began to organize the responses by grouping similar or common responses into concepts within each display table for each of the interview questions. Concepts are a collection of ‘matching’ (i.e.,

101 similar thoughts) or ‘close fit’ codes. Eventually, through a process of ‘matching similar responses’ I was able to reduce down to a series of six to ten single concepts. Table 3.6 is an example of coding down to six concepts. The number of responses that matched each concept allowed me to provide simple quantified results. In some cases, managers provided responses that covered more than one of the concepts, thus there can be more or less than 60 responses to one question.

TABLE 3.6: Example of managers’ perceptions by concept

INTERVIEW QUESTION What is your current awareness about % the potential long-term impacts that Total Ski buses climate change may have on snow Ski shops Ski resorts Car rentals Large hotels conditions and temperatures on skiing Small hotels activities? Mid sized hotels

THEMES/CONCEPTS No awareness 1 1 7 1 1 11 18.6 Minor awareness; media, observation 2 3 4 8 4 1 22 37.2 Moderate awareness; from media & readings and observations 1 1 2 1 4 2 11 18.6 Significant awareness; from media, 1 2 1 2 2 8 13.6 readings, study and observation Well informed 2 2 1 5 8.5 Believes no impact to business from climate change 1 1 2 3.5 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=60) 60 100

Using Table 3.6 as an example, the interpretation of the concepts allows establishment of a category, or a substantive theoretical proposition. Based on the percentage of responses to each concept it was possible to infer the level of awareness managers have about the effects of climate change on skiing, and form that how climate change may impact on their businesses. For example, in Table 3.6, nearly 58% of the 60 responses (small circle) to this question indicate managers have a perception they have no or only a minor awareness about what the effects of climate change may be on snow cover and temperature conditions at ski resorts. Nearly 41% (large circle) indicated a perception of having a moderate awareness to being well-informed about what the effects of climate

102 change may be on snow cover and temperature conditions at ski resorts. Most of this perception of awareness comes from exposure to the media and possibly from personal observation in the topic. Inferences or findings may be drawn from the percentage of responses to each concept. The data set for each of the other interview questions was handled in a similar fashion. The interview questions were designed to collect data to answer research questions 1 and 4; questions 2 and 3 are answered by triangulating the findings from the geographical factors index and the interpretation of climate model output from Scott and Jones (2005). Table 3.7 provides a matrix showing which of the interview questions addresses the four research questions. To assess the economic importance of skiing in the parks and elsewhere in the Canadian Cordillera, I drew on the interviews with government officials and marketing agency representatives, and a review of two economic reports: 1) PriceWaterhouseCoopers (2000) prepared for the Government of Alberta; and, 2) Canada West Ski Areas Association (CWSAA, 2006, 2007 and 2008) Annual Economic Analysis. The data from these sources indicates that skiing is big business in Western Canada, as it is elsewhere around the globe (Moen and Fredman, 2007). Any significant event, such as acts of terrorism, geopolitical turmoil, market forces, economic downturns or health issues, which disrupts the status quo of ski tourism, may impact on the fragile bottom line (i.e., profit and loss) of skiing-dependent businesses in the Canadian Cordillera and elsewhere.

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TABLE 3.7: Research questions and interview questions matrix

# 1 What may be the socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks to the potential impacts of climate change on snow cover , temperatures and season length at the four ski resorts in the 2020s and 2050s? # 2 How do the four ski resorts in the parks compare with the other 20 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera when each is judged and rated against 14 topographic, climatic and geographic factors common to each resort? # 3 How may snow cover, temperature conditions and ski season length suitable for skiing at the four ski resorts in the parks today change in the 2020s and 2050s? # 4 What level of awareness and foresight do managers of skiing-dependent businesses have about the potential physical changes that climate change may cause at ski resorts and the socio-economic effects that may cause to other skiing-dependent businesses in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s? INTERVIEW QUESTIONS ADDRESSING RESEARCH 1 2 3 4 QUESTIONS How do you/your company plan for the future? X X How closely linked do you feel your business is to the presence of skiers using the ski hills in the parks? X X How has your company coped with poor ski seasons or socio-economic downturns in the past decade? X X What is your current awareness about the potential long-term effects climate change may have on snow and temperature conditions that could affect skiing in the X X X parks? How do you think the potential changes in snow and temperature conditions may affect ski hills and skiing in general? X X X What socio-economic effects do you foresee impacting your business if poor snow conditions persist or become the norm in the future? X X In what way could changes to snow and temperature conditions in scenario 2020 from climate change affect the socio-economics of your business? X X In what way might changes to the snow and temperature conditions in scenario 2050 from climate change affect the socio-economic status of your business? X X What, if any, adaptive measures, best practices or innovations have you considered or implemented to help sustain winter operations in the future? X X What plans do you have to diversify or adapt strategies to maintain your winter operations in the face of potential challenges likely to be experienced by ski resorts X X in the parks over the next 50 years? Do you share adaptation and innovation information related to tourism products and best practices among members of your industry sector? X X

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3.8 ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS

As an academic researcher I know I am morally bound to conduct any research involving human subjects in a manner that does not harm or potentially harm any of my participants. To that end, the proposal for this study was reviewed and received approval to proceed from the University of Calgary’s Conjoint Facilities Research Ethics Board (CFREB). In approving my proposal, CFREB did not perceive any ethical issues arising from the contact with any of the participants. Subsequent annual reports to CFREB received continued support for the research. In addition to the CFREB approval, I also received a research permit from Parks Canada to conduct my study within Banff and Jasper National Parks. I recognized that ethical issues potentially could arise at any time during my study, particularly during the primary data collection phase. Ethical issues could just as easily arise during the analysis, interpretation and findings stages (Bloomberg and Volpe, 2008). Being sensitive to that possibility, I established suitable safeguards from the outset to protect sensitive and confidential information and participants’ personal rights by maintaining a strict regime of confidentiality for the interview data collected, and by not seeking any personal or confidential corporate financial data. I did not feel this type of information was germane to my study. Each interviewee was asked to review and sign the Informed Consent Form (Appendix D), an instrument I consider to be central to the principles of research ethics, to ensure each participant understood the aim of my study, to indicate if they wished their name and/or corporate identify to remain confidential, and to note they could withdraw from my study at any time. It was not surprising to me that the businesses I interviewed were very sensitive to the possible release of confidential business information, such as profit/loss accounts, future planning strategies, number of visitors/guests, or even the number of staff working at a business establishment, although some of this type of information could be derived from other published and unpublished sources. The businesses mostly were concerned about the possibility this information would be leaked to or shared with the public and/or competitors. As a result, each participant was assured that this type of information would

105 not be collected during the study. My level of ethical integrity with participant’s data and anonymity has remained steadfast throughout the study to maintain a positive relationship with the participants.

3.9 ISSUES OF TRUSTWORTHINESS

My aim here is to assess the element of trustworthiness not only of the participants’ responses, but also of the data collected, data collection methods, analysis and interpretation, and the findings of this study, particularly when compared against the criteria of credibility, dependability and transferability (Bloomberg and Volpe, 2008).

3.9.1 Credibility

The credibility of the findings of my study is based on whether or not I have accurately portrayed my data sources or a manager’s responses. Bloomberg and Volpe (2008:77) state that the criterion of credibility in qualitative research “refers to whether the participants’ perceptions match up with the researcher’s portrayal of them.” To establish my study’s credibility it was necessary for me to declare any bias or preconceived notions that I may have about the participant’s views or about the outcome of a study. One of the strategies employed to enhance trustworthiness in the study’s findings includes a declaration that I bring a bias to the study. The bias is that climate change may likely have a negative effect on snow and temperature conditions, and that may result in negative socio- economic effects being felt by other skiing-dependent businesses in the parks.

3.9.2 Dependability

The criterion of dependability “refers to whether one can track the processes and procedures used to collect and interpret the data” (Bloomberg and Volpe, 2008:78). It is possible for another qualitative researcher to track the processes and procedures I adopted to collect, sort, code and interpret the interview categories and the other data sources used in my study. An explanation about how these data were collected and analyzed has been provided earlier in this chapter. The overall process should be clear enough to duplicate the

106 essence of my qualitative study and to follow the steps and stages to permit another qualitative researcher to try to duplicate all or most of the findings contained in my study.

3.9.3 Transferability

The criterion of transferability “refers to the fit or match between the research context and other contexts as judged by the reader” (Bloomberg and Volpe, 2008:78). Although this study was conducted within the administrative boundaries of Banff and Jasper National Parks, it is possible that the learning process and findings during my study could be transferred to another similar context. It would be inappropriate simply to generalize or extrapolate the findings within the parks directly to an area outside the parks. The two parks’ administrative and land use structures, operational paradigms and competitive contexts are very different. It is reasonable to think that similar business and socio-economic systems and climatic processes are at work at, for example, Fernie, Kimberley or Kickinghorse Mountain. The level of detail about the methodology provided in my study provides enough contextual background for another researcher to share a similar research experience at another site.

3.10 SUMMARY

This chapter described the qualitative research methodology and the methods I employed during my study to derive an answer to the research questions. My study followed a vulnerability assessment approach elements of grounded theory tradition. Two primary data collection methods were employed: interviews with skiing-dependent business managers; and the creation and application of the geographical factors index. These were supplemented with information from the interpretation of climate model output for Banff in the 2020s and 2050s, and economic assessment of the importance of skiing in the Cordillera. The triangulation and interpretation of the combined methods highlight the potential degree of socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses from the long-term effects of climate change on snow and temperature conditions at ski resorts in the parks.

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CHAPTER 4: FINDINGS 4.1 INTRODUCTION My study assessed whether or not the skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks are more or less vulnerable to the long-term socio-economic impacts resulting from the effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions over the 2020s and 2050s. The connection between how a warming climate may change snow cover and temperatures at ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera may help the skiing- dependent business community in the parks to understand and prepare for possible future socio-economic effects from climate change on their businesses. This chapter presents the findings from the three data collection processes: 1) creation and application of the geographical factors index (GFI); 2) results of interviews with 60 skiing-dependent business managers in the parks; and 3) interpretation of the work of Scott and Jones (2005), who report the results of model projections for Banff for climate scenarios 2020 and 2050. I have also incorporated information about the economic importance of skiing to winter tourism in the parks and elsewhere in Western Canada. This chapter presents and discusses 5 findings; chapter 5 provides the interpretation (i.e., the ‘so what’ of each finding) relative to the research questions. Figure 4.1 illustrates the conceptual framework for chapters 4, 5 and 6.

FIGURE 4.1: Data pyramid illustrating the path to the study’s findings, interpretation, answers to the research questions and recommendations

Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Geographical Factors Index Interprets the Assesses socio- Climate Models 5 findings and economic Interviews FINDINGS answers the vulnerability and research presents Economics questions conclusions and recommendations Literature

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4.2 FINDINGS

Following is a discussion about each of the key findings with an explanation about how each was derived.

4.2.1 Finding 1 - The geographical factors index (GFI) ranked the four ski resorts in Banff and Jasper National Parks in the top 7 (1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th) of the 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera that may have the ability to continue offering skiers high quality skiing experiences, all other business and economic factors remaining constant in the 2020s and 2050s (answers research question 1).

The 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera included in the GFI needed to be compared against a common yardstick. The GFI serves as the yardstick by providing a ‘level the playing field’ that allows the resorts to be compared against 14 geographical factors (i.e., topographic, climatic and geographic characteristics) common at each resort. The extent of these 14 geographical factors may determine whether or not certain ski resorts are better able to cope with or buffer the growing effects of climate change than other resorts (Breiling and Charamza, 1999). Table 4.1 identifies the 24 regional ski resorts and elevations included in the GFI. Details about the selection process in found in chapter 3. The elevation of the base and summit of a ski resort are considered by, for example, Beniston (2003 and 2006), Scott and Jones (2005) and three people (S. Best, D. Gibson and John X, pers. comm., 2006) involved in the ski resort management business as being a major factor to help delay the effects of climate change on snow cover. The weighting scheme (5 for the base and 3 for summit) was determined based on the input from the three ski industry people above. Figure 4.2 illustrates the elevational difference of each ski resort relative to the others from the Pacific coast eastward to the Canadian Rockies. As previously mentioned in chapter 3, the 14 geographical factors were selected based on a combination of considerations drawn from the literature, from my academic and professional background in natural resource and environmental management, and input from three ski industry specialists. The 14 factors that are considered by the ski industry

109 people to be important for a ski resort to possess to help slow or buffer the effects of climate change include: expanse and variability of the skiable area (i.e., size and mix of skiable terrain); reliability, type (i.e., wet or dry snow) and depth of natural snow cover; elevation of the snow reliability line; the ability to make snow; and slope aspect (i.e., direction of the slope relative to the sun).

TABLE 4.1: Regional ski resorts (and elevations) included in the geographical factors index

ALBERTA Base elevation (masl) Summit elevation (masl) Castle Mountain 1,410 2,273 Lake Louise 1,646 2,607 Marmot Basin 1,704 2,612 Mount Norquay 1,630 2,133 Nakiska 1,575 2,260 Sunshine Village 1,660 2,730 BRITISH COLUMBIA Apex/Penticton 1,575 2,178 Big White/Kelowna 1,508 2,319 Cypress Mountain 980 1,432 Fernie 1,068 1,925 Grouse Mountain 869 1249 Kickinghorse Resort/Golden 1,190 2,450 North Star/Kimberley 1,230 1,982 Mount Mackenzie/Revelstoke 512 2,225 Mount Seymour 1,023 1,265 Mount Washington 1,083 1,132 Panorama/Invermere 1,200 2,400 Red Mountain/Trail 1,185 2,072 Silver Star/Vernon 1,155 1,915 Hudson Bay Mountain/Smithers 1,128 1,676 Sun Peaks/Kamloops 1,255 2,152 Powder King/Mackenzie 935 1,829 Whistler/Blackcomb 653 2,284 Whitewater/Nelson 1,640 2,040

Table 4.2 is an example of a GFI rating form, in this case for Sunshine Village.

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a ional ski resorts in Canadian Cordiller g ure 4.2: Base and summit elevations of 24 re g Fi

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TABLE 4.2: Example of the GFI model (as applied to Sunshine Village)

GEO- DATA MENT PARA- VALUE METER RATING WEIGHT SCORING GRAPHIC FACTORS MEASURE- <500 masl (0); 501 to 800 masl (1); 801 to 1,000 masl (2); 1001 to 1,200 masl Base elevation 1,660m 6 5 30 (3); 1201 to 1,400 masl (4); 1,401 to 1,600 (5); >1,601 masl (6) <1,200 masl (0); 1,201 to 1,400 (1); Summit elevation 2,730m 1,401 to 2,000 (2); 2,001 to 2,500 (3); 4 3 12 2,501 to 2,800 (4); >2,801 (5) <200 (1);201 to 400 (2); 401 to 1,200 Skiable area (goes to 1,335ha (3); 1,201 to 2,000 (4); 2,001 to 2,500 4 2 8 size of skiable terrain) (5); 2,501 to 3,000 (6); > 3,001 (7) Average annual snow <30 (0); 31 to 100 (1); 101 to 150 (2); depth (base, mid 1,000cm 151 to 200 (3); 201 to 300 (4); >301 (5) 5 1 5 station or summit) <90 (1); 91 to 125 (2); 126 to 150 (3); Length of ski season 185days 5 1 5 151 to 180 (4); >181 (5) Average elevation of 500 to 1,000 (4); 1,001 to 1,400 (3); freezing line/snowline 1,328m (to 1,401 to 1,500 masl (2); 1,501 to 1,600 3 2 6 in latter half of ski April 15) (1); > 1,601 masl (0) season Snowmaking Not needed (3); Yes (2); partial (1); no not needed 3 1 3 capability capability (0) Marine (1); Coast Mountains (2); mountain Climate type or zone Interior Plateau (3); Eastern Mountain 4 1 4 continental Ranges and Mountain Continental (4) Slope 25% SE; S (0); SE (1); SW 1); E (2); W (2); N aspect/orientation of 25% E; (3); NE (3) 3 2 6 major slope surface 50% N more expert (1); more novice (2); more Mix of skier-skill good intermediate (3); good balance of all 4 1 4 level terrain balance three (4) community Town site on hill (2); community Base development 1 1 1 nearby nearby (1); none (0) Proximity to a major half hour drive (3); one hour drivel (2); urban centre with 2 hour two hour drive (1); >greater than 2 1 1 1 direct access hours (0) Ease of access to ski moderately Easy (3); moderately difficult (2); 2 1 2 resort difficult difficult (1) Proximity to a major <2 hours (4); 2.25 to 3 hours (3); 3.25 to 2.5 hours 3 1 3 or international airport 4 hours (2); >4.25 hours (1) GEOGRAPHICAL FACTORS INDEX SCORE 90

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Table 4.3 provides the GFI quantitative rating score sheet with a subjective assessment of high, medium and low that suggests the potential of the ski resort to be able to delay or buffer itself against the gradual warming effects of climate change and still be in operation by the 2050s. Several authors (Beniston, 2003, 2006; Scott and Jones, 2005; Elsasser and Messerli, 2001; Abegg, et al., 2007) suggest the elevation of the base of the ski resort’s operations relative to the reliable snowline is a major consideration for rating and ranking a ski resort’s ability to survive the long-term effects of climate change.

TABLE 4.3: Ski Resort Rating, Ranking and Possible Future Prospects by the 2050s

SKI RESORT Location GFI Prospect by Base Summit Rating the 2050s 1 Sunshine Village Banff 90 High 1,660 2,730 2 Lake Louise Resort Banff 85 High 1,646 2,607 3 Marmot Basin Jasper 83 High 1,704 2,612 4 Apex Mountain B.C. 79 High 1,575 2,178 5 Whitewater B.C. 78 High 1,640 2,040 6 Big White Mountain B.C. 75 High 1,508 2,319 7 Mount Norquay Banff 71 High 1,600 2,133 8 Nakiska Alberta 70 High 1,575 2,260 9 Sun Peaks B.C. 70 Medium 1,255 2,152 10 Kimberley B.C. 70 Medium 1,230 1,982 11 Castle Mountain Alberta 69 Medium 1,410 2,273 12 Red Mountain B.C. 64 Medium 1,185 2,072 13 Whistler/Blackcomb B.C. 64 High* 653 2,284 14 Silver Star B.C. 61 Medium 1,155 1,915 15 Panorama Village B.C. 61 Medium 1,200 2,400 16 Kicking Horse Mtn. B.C. 60 Medium 1,190 2,450 17 Powder King Mtn B.C. 58 Low 935 1,829 18 Fernie B.C. 57 Low 1,068 1,925 19 Cypress Mountain B.C. 57 Low 980 1,432 20 Hudson Bay/Smithers B.C. 55 Low 1,128 1,676 21 Mt Mackenzie/ Revel’e B.C. 53 High** 512 2,225 22 Mt. Washington B.C. 52 Low 1,083 1,132 23 Mt. Seymour B.C. 52 Low 1,023 1,265 24 Grouse Mountain B.C. 48 Low 869 1,249 (* can operate from mid station elevations rather than base elevation; ** with increased vertical development in future)

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Table 4.3 ranks the ski resorts in descending order of rating score for the ski resort with the highest degree of geographical advantages to least advantages to the effects of climate change by the 2020s and 2050s. Sunshine Village in Banff tops the list, placing 1st of 24 by achieving the highest score of 90 out of a possible 106 points, while Lake Louise and Marmot Basin placed 2nd (85 points) and 3rd (83 points) respectively. Mount Norquay placed 7th (with 71 points) overall. Grouse Mountain scored 24th, the lowest rating with 48 out of a possible 106 points. It and other lower-rated ski resorts reflect the resorts having the least ideal balance of topographic, climatic and geographic characteristics. The seven ski resorts ranked ‘low’ are the least likely able to cope with or buffer the growing effects of climate change, even as early as the 2020s, and almost certainly by the 2050s. The ski resorts with a score in the range of 70 to 90 and with a base elevation of 1,500 to 1,600 m possess a balance of topographic, climatic and geographic characteristics that with enhanced snowmaking capability may be able to buffer the effects of climate change and still fully operational between the 2020s and 2050s. The ski resorts with scores from 61 to 70 and at a base elevation of around 1,200 m to 1,500 m may possess geographic characteristics and snowmaking capability that will allow them to adapt their current operations to provide the greatest buffering against climate change beyond the 2020s but possibly not as late as the 2050s.

4.2.2 Finding 2: An interpretation of climate model projections for snow cover and ski season length for scenarios 2020 and 2050 infer that there ought to be sufficient natural snow cover conditions, supplemented with snowmaking, at least at the 2,600 m elevation in Banff National Park most winters to allow for safe, high quality but with a shorter ski season at each of the ski resorts in the park (answers research question 2).

Finding 2 is derived from an assessment and interpretation drawn out from the climate model scenarios and output developed and reported by Scott and Jones (2005). It was unnecessary for me to any additional modelling because Scott and Jones covered the topic thoroughly. The significance of Scott and Jones’ work is that the models project that

114 skiing in Banff by the 2050s is likely because although there may less natural snow, there may still be good snow depth and a long ski season if snowmaking supplements natural snow cover. The models project that the ski resorts in Banff can anticipate reduced snow cover, a shorter ski season and warmer mean winter temperatures at both 1,600 m and 2,600 m elevation levels in Banff by the 2020s and 2050s. The projected decline in the length of the ski season between was determined by Scott and Jones using scenarios based firstly on natural snow cover only; and secondly on natural snow cover supplemented with snowmaking. Snowmaking is the key adaptation strategy that reduces the loss of ski season length resulting in a viable ski season.

Historical temperature and precipitation conditions in Banff

Figure 4.3 illustrates the long-term the mean annual temperature trend for Banff. The mean annual temperature trend rose modestly between 1938 and 2004. The climatic record also illustrates that Banff experiences variable inter-annual warm and cold years. Figure 4.4 indicates the trend of the annual winter snow cover increased slightly from 1938 up to 1974; and from 1974 until 2003 there was a slight decline. Figure 4.4 also indicates a variable inter-annual snow cover record over 65 years (Scott and Jones, 2005).

FIGURE 4.3: Long-term trend in Banff town site mean annual temperatures

(Source: Scott and Jones, 2005: 2)

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The precipitation and temperature climate scenarios developed by Scott and Jones (2005) for the 2020s and 2050s (see Table 4.4) project that mean annual winter temperature may rise as little as 0.3oC to 1.7oC by the 2020s, and by as much as 1.4oC to 5.9oC by the 2050s. The average winter precipitation levels are projected to decline by 1% in the 2020s, and may range in the valley bottom from -3% to +12% based on the 30-year record by the 2050s. Scott and Jones suggest that snow cover at valley bottom elevations may be reduced or replaced by rain or mixed precipitation instead of snow events (Scott and Jones, 2005).

FIGURE 4.4: Banff’s annual snowfall since 1938

(Source: Scott and Jones, 2005: 2)

TABLE 4.4: Modelled temperature and precipitation change for Banff (1961-1990)

(Source: Scott and Jones, 2005: 3)

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Computer variance

History-matching the climate record for Banff/Bow Valley snow cover data over the 30 year baseline period 1961 to 1990 with the computer modelled record assessed the precision of the modelled information (Scott and Jones, 2005). The observed versus modelled records indicate a nearly identical bell curve appearance for snow depth at the Banff/Bow Valley weather station at 1,400 m (elevation of Banff town site), except for an approximate 5 cm under estimate (variance) of snow depth at peak snow season (see Figure 4.5). This approximate 5 cm variance between observed and modelled output suggests that the computer model experiences minor incongruities in data treatment, which may result in errors (i.e., an under estimation) projecting actual conditions for scenarios 2020 and 2050. This degree of error may seem insignificant, but it is significant because the climate model scenarios for 2020 and 2050 also may incur similar or greater errors and, thus, project less snow depth than may actually occur.

FIGURE 4.5: Observed versus the modelled daily snow depth at Banff climate station

~5 cm variance between modeled and observed Observed records

Modeled

(After Scott and Jones, 2005: 7)

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Changing snow cover depth with time of winter season

Canadian Global Climate Model 2 (CGCM2) projected snowfall levels for climate scenarios 2020 and 2050 at two elevations in the park (1,400 m at Banff town site and 2,600 m) based on the 30 year snowfall record from 1961 to 1990. Snowfall levels at 1,400 m are projected to decline from the baseline of 241 cm for scenario 2020 by between 7% and 8% (Scott and Jones, 2005). Snowfall levels at 2,600 m may decline 3% from the baseline of 344 cm (see Table 4.5). For climate scenario 2050, the snowfall projections range between 15% and 20% less snowfall at 1,400 m elevation and 7% to 11% less snowfall at 2,600 m elevation. The projected decline in snowfall in the park seems to be lagging behind that which is starting to occur in the Alps today (Abegg, et al., 2007); Agrawala, 2007a; Beniston, 1997, 2003, 2006; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; Elsasser and Messerli, 2001; Koenig and Abegg, 1997). My research explores and interprets then incorporates Scott and Jones’ (2005) findings to assess whether or not skiing is likely in the 2050s in Banff. My research does not modify their findings found in Table 4.5 and subsequent figures.

TABLE 4.5: Projected changes in annual snowfall in Banff

(Source: Scott and Jones, 2005: 12)

Climate model scenarios also project that snow depth in Banff will likely decline on an elevational basis over the winter season. Figures 4.6 to 4.9 illustrate how projected snow depth levels may change at 1,600 m and 2,600 m for scenarios 2020 and 2050 based on the

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30 year average (1961-1990) using climate models NCARPCM27 B21, CGCM228 A2X and CCSRNIES29 A11 (Scott and Jones, 2005). These climate model projections indicate the potential future of skiing in Banff based on natural snow cover decline by the 2050s. Figure 4.6 compares the 30 year historical snow depth at the 1,600 m level in Banff against the two climate model-generated curves (i.e., optimistic and less optimistic snow depth) for snow depth in climate scenario 2020. The CCSRNIES climate model projects an optimistic 15 cm to 18 cm depth at mid season (January 27) before the seasonal drop off. The NCARPCM climate model projects a low of 10 cm to 16 cm of snowfall by mid season and indicates a flattened and distorted bell curve.

FIGURE 4.6: Projected daily average snow depth at Banff for scenario 2020 (1,600 m)

1961-90 baseline

CGCM2 A2X

CCSRNIES A11

NCARPCM B21

(Adopted from: Scott and Jones, 2005: 13)

For climate scenario 2050 at 1,600 m (see Figure 4.7), the CCSRNES model indicates a snowfall curve that is significantly depressed and distorted even more so than in climate scenario 2020 with projected snow depths from as little as 5 cm to as much as 15

27 NCARP/PCM – B21: National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Parallel Climate Model, U.S.A. 28 CGCM –A2X: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Canada. 29 CCSR/NIES – A11: Centre for Climate Research Studies/National Institute for Environmental Studies

119 cm by mid season in the valley bottom, with the early and late parts of the season having little or only a trace of snowfall. Climate model NCARPCM projects an average snow cover of about 10 cm with a possible peak of 18 cm and an almost flat shape with little snow in late winter. My contribution to this model is that I can re-affirm, based on discussions with two ski resort operators that there is likely sufficient inter-annual natural snow depth during the mid-ski season to allow for skiing. This would need to be supplemented with snowmaking to ensure maintenance of sufficient snow base at 1,600 m. Figures 4.8 and 4.9 illustrate a significantly different snow depth profile for the 2,600 m elevation in Banff for climate scenarios 2020 and 2050. The 2,600 m historical curve in Figure 4.8 indicates a skewed or asymmetrical snowfall accumulation pattern highlighting a gradual but steady increase in snowfall and depth from the start of the snow season up until the late snow season, at which time snow fall and snow depth drop off sharply as ablation from temperatures and radiant energy in the early and mid spring season exceeds accumulation. The NCARPCM and CCSRNIES models show curves in Figure 4.8 suggesting a slight decline in snow cover ranging from 80 cm to 90 cm by climate scenario 2020. There is a variance of 10 cm between the most optimistic and least optimistic climate models’ projections for scenario 2020. My contribution to this model (Figure 4.8) is the assurance from discussions with two ski resort operators that there will be sufficient natural snow depth at 2,600 m to allow for skiing. Model plots for snow depth in climate scenario 2050 (Figure 4.9) with the range in projections from as much as 95 cm depth to as little as 40 cm depth in the middle of the snow season, which drops off sharply to near 5 cm by early May. In the least optimistic scenario (CCSRNES), there may be insufficient snow depth in the mid and latter part of the ski season to facilitate safe skiing at 2,600 m. There is a large variance in snow cover of 55 cm projected by models NCARPCM and CCSRNES for climate scenario 2050. Figures 4.6, 4.7, 4.8 and 4.9 highlight that the most pronounced decline in snow depth may occur in climate scenarios 2020 and 2050 at low elevations (1,600 m), while at high elevations (2,600 m) the decline in snow depth is less pronounced. Sandy Best (pers. comm., 2006) indicated that in most ski seasons the models suggest there still may be enough snow depth (greater than 30 cm), particularly on the upper slopes, to permit skiing.

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FIGURE 4.7: Projected daily average snow depth at Banff (1,600 m) in scenario 2050

1961-90 baseline

NCARPCM B21

CGCM2 A2X

CCSRNES A11

(Adopted from: Scott and Jones, 2005: 13)

FIGURE: 4.8: Projected daily average snow depth at Banff (2,600) m in scenario 2020

CGCM2 A2X NCARPCM B21 1961-90 baseline

CCSRNIES A11

(Adopted from: Scott and Jones, 2005: 13)

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FIGURE 4.9: Projected daily average snow depth at Banff (2,600 m) in scenario 2050

CGCM2 A2X NCARPCM B21 1961-90 baseline

CCSRNIES A11

(Adopted from: Scott and Jones, 2005: 13)

One important observation in Figures 4.8 and 4.9 is that at higher elevations (2,600 m), unlike lower elevations (1,600 m), the maximum snow depth does not occur until late in the ski season (early May), which is the time when the ski resorts are closing down.

Changing length of ski season

The average number of ski-season days at Banff and Lake Louise ski resorts was modelled based on Environment Canada historical weather data from 1961 to 1990 (see Tables 4.7 and 4.8). Scott and Jones (2005) compared this data with climate model scenarios to estimate how much less ski season there may be in scenarios 2020 and 2050. At 1,600 m elevation in Banff, based on natural snow cover only, there are on average 76 days in the ski-season and 179 days in the ski-season at 2,600 m. When snowmaking capability is factored into the model calculations the average number of days in the ski- season is 167 days at 1,600 m to 211 days at 2,600 m – a 26% improvement in the number of skiable days. The NCARPCM and CCSRNIES climate models project for Banff a reduced ski season for scenario 2020 at 1,600 m elevation under natural snow conditions of 50% to

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57% (see Table 4.6). At 2,600 m elevation, the projected decline in ski season is 7% to 13% (Scott and Jones, 2005). For climate scenario 2050 in Banff (see Table 4.7), based on natural snow cover only the ski season at 1,600 m may be reduced by 66% to 94%; and at 2,600 m it may be reduced by 9% to 60%. The variance between the most optimistic climate model projections to the least optimistic is as much as 50% in the 2,600 m case, a significant variability.

TABLE 4.6: Projected change in length of ski season at Banff

(Source: Scott and Jones, 2005: 14)

Snowmaking is an effective adaptation technique to help ski resorts to reduce vulnerability to the warming effects of climate change (Schneider, et al. 2007; Scott and McBoyle, 2007; Scott et al., 2007). When snowmaking capability is factored into climate model calculations, the loss of ski season is less than the loss projected based on only natural snow conditions. All four ski resorts depend for part of the ski season on snowmaking on the lower slopes or on the lower ski out to extend the length of the ski season. Climate models project with snowmaking cover the reduced ski season at 1,600 m in scenario 2020 is from 7% to 15%, and in scenario 2050 the reduction in ski season is

123 from 9% to 43%. During low snow depth ski seasons, this less ski season could be significant for the resorts viability and profitability, particularly if the snow drought continues for several years in a row. For scenario 2020 at 2,600 m, the models project zero change in the ski season. For scenario 2050 at 2,600 m, the models project no change to the ski season to a loss of as little as 6% (Scott and Jones, 2005). Skiing will be possible at higher elevations even as far out in time as the 2050s (S. Best, pers. comm., 2006). Table 4.7 presents similar model results for the length of the ski season at Lake Louise Ski Resort. The table illustrates the climate models projected ski season loss for scenarios 2020 and 2050 based on natural snow cover and snowmaking capability. The number of days in the ski season at Lake Louise, based on 1961 to 1990 records, ranges from 153 days at 1,600 m elevation to 197 days at 2,600 m elevation under natural snow conditions. When snowmaking is included in climate model calculations, the number of days in the ski season increases from 153 to 178 days at 1,600 m and 197 to 208 days at 2,600 m – a 16% improvement in the number of ski days at 1,600 m and a 5% improvement in the number of ski days at 2,600 m (Scott and Jones, 2005).

TABLE 4.7 Projected changes in the length of ski season at Lake Louise Ski Resort

(Source: Scott and Jones, 2005: 14)

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At 1,600 m under natural snow conditions, scenario 2020 projects a decline in ski- season length of 27% to 35%. At 2,600 m the projected range in the decline in the number of ski-season days is 2% to 3%. Factoring in snowmaking, at 1,600 m, the projected ski- season reduction is zero change. At 2,600 m, the projected change in ski-season length is an increase of 2%. The 2% increase in ski season suggests snowmaking at 2,600 m could add more ski-season days at higher elevations; however, snowmaking currently occurs at the lower elevations at all ski resorts in the parks except possibly Mount Norquay (Scott and Jones, 2005). This information suggests that skiing will still be possible with snowmaking by the 2050s at Lake Louise. For climate scenario 2050, with natural snow conditions at 1,600 m the models project a decline in ski-season length of 31% to 87%. At 2,600 m, the projected range in reduced ski season length is 2% to 19%. When snowmaking is factored into the model calculations, at 1,600 m the projected reduction in ski-season length is zero to 12%; and at 2,600 m the projected change in ski-season length is zero to an increase of 2%. This information suggests that snowmaking capability reduces the vulnerability of Lake Louise ski resort for scenarios 2020 and 2050 (see Table 4.8). In summary, skiing in Banff with natural snow depth supplemented with snowmaking may be possible by the 2050s. It is also possible by the 2050s that the ski resorts in Banff and Jasper may be among only a small number (~10) of currently operating ski resorts in the Cordillera to still be viable operations.

4.2.3 FINDING 3 – Current socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks from the effects of a changing climate on snow cover and temperatures is low and manageable relative to what may be the situation in the 2020s and 2050s.

The socio-economic situation relative to the past decade and current climate and skiing conditions has been reasonably stable for skiing-dependent businesses subject to variable global market forces. The ski tourism businesses have experienced extended periods of time in the past two or three decades when abrupt economic conditions negatively affected business. Many business managers have learned from past experiences

125 how to cope with abrupt economic changes (see Table 4.8). They plan to use (and share) their past experiences to cope with future abrupt economic changes, including the progressive socio-economic changes projected to be caused by the effects of climate change. Managers infer that if they can cope with abrupt economic changes in the past, they can likely handle the slowly developing socio-economic changes over the next decade or so resulting from the effects of climate change. They do not foresee the effects of climate change to be as great a challenge to cope with as the more abrupt economic changes they are accustomed to. For now, they will not worry about the effects of climate change until it becomes necessary.

TABLE 4.8: Coping strategies and tactics deployed during past economic downturns

CATEORY: Current business vulnerability %

Ski buses How has your company coped with Ski shops Ski resorts Car rentals Large hotels socio-economic downturns in the past Small hotels

decade from poor snow and Mid-size hotels temperature conditions or as a result Total responses of a poor ski season? THEMES/CONCEPTS No history/experience with down turns 2 7 5 2 1 17 18 Downsize; layoffs; reduce stock; drop 2 1 1 4 2 2 12 12.6 rates; closure; borrow money Diversify services and client base 6 3 9 6 1 2 27 28.4 Going through a period of growth 1 2 3 3 Adapt by making snow; snow cover 4 2 5 11 12 1 35 37 management; survive from day to day Not dependent on skiers 1 1 1 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=95) 95 100

The years 2008 – 2010 were a period of global economic turmoil that affected all tourism, including ski tourism, in the parks. Skiing conditions remained good during this time and continued to attract skiers from around the globe. Over the past decade, skiing- related business has been good in the parks. How a business plans and prepares for the future may depend to some extent upon how well the manager currently ‘takes care of business,’ and how well the manager coped

126 with positive and negative market forces in the past. One mechanism or tool for any sized business to help cope with economic conditions during difficult operating times is a business plan. A business plan keeps a business focused on its core business and helps to keep it from deviating too much. Not all the businesses I interviewed operate with a formal business plan, but yet they all have managed to successfully navigate during volatile economic times, which suggests that a business plan, whether it is written or it is carried in a manages’ head, has little bearing on the success or failure of a business. A number (24%) of businesses, mostly the larger businesses, have formal written business plans, likely to satisfy corporate governance issues and financial institutions. Others (34%) have annual operating or budget plans. Most (42%) managers have no formal business plan other than an annual budget and tend to conduct business on a year to year basis based on what the manager/owner’s plan is in his/her head or on the annual (16 to 18 month) stock ordering process. Table 4.9 indicates how skiing-dependent business managers say they plan for the future. All the managers indicate they watch the market trends and economic conditions and then adjust business operations accordingly. That may mean bringing in more seasonal stock, such as skis and ski clothing, or adjusting staffing levels to match anticipated business levels. None of the managers currently contemplate closing down their business today or in the foreseeable future, even under the worst possible economic scenario and certainly not from the effects of climate change.

Managers’ comments about how they plan for the future include:

We are under new ownership … and have no [current long-range] plan, but we are working on a 3 to 15 year plan …. We are under the development restrictions of Parks [Canada]. We do work with an annual plan … and a 1 to 2 year [operating] and capital budget (Barry X30, 2006).

[We have] a 5-year plan. We now follow a 3 year strategic planning [process] … and have an annual budget [that] plans 15 months out. [We have plans for] sales and revenue targets for 2010 (David Roberts31, 2006).

30 Barry X, a pseudonym, requested anonymity. 31 David Roberts is a senior official of the Fairmont Hotels in Banff.

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[The market] is too reactive … it is short term … 3 to 5 years because the markets change too fast [for long-range planning]. We concentrate on international markets and plan for the winter and skiers. [Our] marketing provides packages [that includes] other activities [than skiing]. Conference centre business is growing and draws regional business … (Harold X32, 2006).

[Ours is an] on-going 3 to 5 years planning process with an annual budget. We watch emerging trends and markets. [Our] traffic includes U.K. skiers. We are fairly easy-going … because we are numb to it [ups and downs of the economy] … we are used to it (William X33, 2006).

TABLE 4.9: Current vulnerability: How ski tourism businesses plan for the future

CATEGORY: Current business vulnerability %

TOTAL TOTAL ski shops ski shops How does your company plan for the Ski buses ski resorts large hotels vehicle rent future? small hotels Medium hotels THEMES/CONCEPTS No response 1 1 2 1.5 Month to month: short term planning; look 1 1 1 5 10 2 5 25 18 at trends and flow of economy No business plan: based on past or next 1 1 15 4 6 27 19 order: carry business plan in head of owner/manager Annual budget and operational plan; 1 5 4 13 8 3 3 37 26 marketing plan 1 to 2 year informal plan or more formal 4 1 2 2 1 10 8 written operational plan formal long-term (3-5 years) capital, 7 6 6 10 3 2 34 24 business or strategic plan: long-range plan (10-15 years) Guided by ski area management guidelines 3 3 2 Input from trade shows, tourism bureau 1 1 2 1.5 and ski hills TOTAL RESPONSES (n=140) 140 100

None of the business managers included anything about the effects of climate change on their business in their operations plan. That is partly because businesses do not

32 Harold X, a pseudonym, requested anonymity. To establish credibility this person is a senior representative of a large hotel in the parks. 33 William X, a pseudonym, requested anonymity. To establish credibility this person is a senior representative of a large hotel in the parks.

128 see the effects of climate change having an impact on their business at all or at least not in the next 5 to 10 years, and because businesses in the parks seem to thrive on being flexible and having the freedom to make strategic business changes quickly as the market changes. It seems that whether or not a business has a formal business plan is irrelevant. Managers indicate they do not need a plan, other than what they carry in their heads, because they know their business and they know the operating environment. The businesses typically work on a short-term planning and operating time horizon of one to three years. Many businesses are flexible enough to change direction abruptly to accommodate a shifting market place. The volatility of the tourism market place and the economy requires that type of flexibility. Because the long-term socio-economic effects of climate change may occur over the next decade or more, the managers see no urgency on their part to strategize or deploy operational tactics to start accommodating any changes now. They say that because they can easily adapt to the changing market place, they will be able to accommodate the economic changes projected to occur in the 2020s and 2050s. Most managers assumed the effects of climate change would be negative rather than positive for their businesses. At least two managers feel there is a silver lining to the effects of climate for their businesses. They contend that climate change may produce more snow at high elevations and that will attract more skiers because the skiing in the parks should still be good or better when compared to other ski resorts in the Cordillera in the 2020s and 2050s. More than half (56%) the managers acknowledge they know little about the effects of climate change on the environment (i.e., snow cover and temperature conditions), but 94.6% know the success of their winter business is dependent upon skiers, thus they are nearly totally dependent upon good skiing conditions at the ski resorts. A small (5.4%) number of businesses indicate they have less dependence on skiers than do other businesses because they offer other tourism products and can attract non-skiing park visitors. Most managers’ responses indicate they know they depend on skiers and are astute enough to acknowledge they would be severely impacted and may not be viable if a ski resort experiences a series of bad ski seasons or closes temporarily or permanently in the future

129 from any economic situation, including from the effects of climate change. Table 4.10 illustrates the degree of dependence of businesses on the success of the ski resorts. More than 17% (10 of 57) of responses indicate businesses have a 26% to 50% dependence on skiers, while 45.6% (26 or 57) of responses indicated 81% to 100% dependence on skiers. Only 5.4% (3 of 57) of responses indicated a range of between 1% and 25% dependence on skiers’ business. Fairmont Banff Springs Hotel (David Roberts, pers. comm., 2006) said they have established other reasons for tourists to come to the parks during the winter months, such as enhanced conference facilities, weekend get-aways and a health spa. Skiers, he says, are not the hotel’s main guests during the winter.

TABLE 4.10: The link between the presence of skiers and the vulnerability of skiing- dependent businesses

CATEGORY: Current business vulnerability %

hotels Medium TOTAL TOTAL

How closely linked is your Ski shops Big hotels Ski resorts Car rentals Shuttle bus Shuttle bus

business to skiers and ski resorts Small hotels in the parks? THEMES/CONCEPTS Minor links 1-25% 1 2 3 5.4 Moderate 26-50% 4 2 3 1 10 17.5 Significant 51-80% 1 3 6 6 2 18 31.5 Dependent 81-100% 4 2 7 9 3 1 26 45.6 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=57) 57 100

Nearly 6% of managers have a slightly different view about the link and importance between their businesses and that of the ski resorts. Amanda Robinson34 (pers. comm., 2006), for instance, indicates that her business does not depend on skiers because Marmot Basin is mostly a regional (i.e., predominantly Edmonton) ski resort. She says that there is a need to capitalize on attracting more skiers to Jasper from the U.K. and other distant locations. She says about 16% of her skiing guests come from Calgary. William X35 (pers. comm., 2006) says skiers are not as significant to his hotel as some people may think. Only

34 Amanda Robinson is General Manager at Jasper Park Lodge. 35 William X is a pseudonym because of a request for anonymity.

130 about 5% - 7% of his guests are in the parks solely or partly for skiing. About another 5% - 7% are regional visitors on winter get-aways while the rest are attending conventions/meetings, participating in tournaments or enjoying incentive travel. The message managers have about the importance of the link between their business and skiers and ski resorts includes:

We are 100% [dependent on skiers] in the winter. We are 100% sold out for next winter already and 100% of our clients is European. You look at the hotel guest that just came walking through here … for every one Canadian the other 10 is international. Canadians don’t support their own tourism …. They don’t contribute to the economy (Sandy Best, 2006).

On a scale of 1 to 10, an 8 or 9. In the winter time … I would say 85%. If the ski hill closed, I would have to make (pause) … for me to survive, I would have to make huge changes. Yup, I believe we could do it because we also have a strong summer season. It may be hard for our business to survive if the ski hill closed (Bill Keeling, 2006).

We are nearly totally (85%) dependent on skiers in the winter. We provide the ski shuttle bus function to Sunshine Village and the Airporter Service that brings skiers from Calgary’s airport to Banff and Lake Louise. In addition, we provide charter service for Canadian Mountain Holidays (CMH) for heli-skiing (Mike Dove, 2006).

[As a business community, we have a significant] link … 70% of winter visitors to the park (Banff) are domestic while 30% are offshore visitors … [these are] spread around the park. Thirty percent (30%) of visitors at the hotel are skiers, but we [our ski resorts] are not as competitive as others [outside the parks] because there is no on-site accommodation. (David Roberts, 2006)

Although it is unlikely, but should it ever be necessary for the ski resorts in the parks to close, there is nothing currently obvious at this time that could fill the economic void left behind by skiing.

FINDING 4: Future snow cover conditions and skiing activities in the parks may be less than current conditions (in 2010), given climate model projections, but 81% of managers are optimistic that skiing on natural snow cover will still be possible with enhanced snowmaking during the 2020s and 2050s (answers research question 3).

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An experienced business manager normally is familiar with the many externalities that impact a business operating environment, particularly those factors that have the potential to positively or negatively impact on business operations. I found that more than 50% of business managers apparently have a low level of awareness about how climate change may impact the environment, such as the snow cover at the ski resorts (see Table 4.11). Only 8.5% of the managers’ responses demonstrated to me that they are more than just familiarity with the potential effects that climate change may have on snow conditions and skiing activities at the ski resorts. These latter managers are familiar with the issue because they have some education about the subject or have direct involvement in skiing activities, such as having children engaged in ski-racing programs or, as two managers say, they are involved with the national ski team.

TABLE 4.11: Managers awareness of future climate effects on skiing and business

CATEORY: Current business vulnerability % Total Ski shops Ski shops Ski resorts Mid hotels Mid hotels What is your current awareness Car rentals Large hotels Small hotels about the potential long-term Shuttle buses impacts that climate change may have on snow conditions and temperatures on skiing activities?

THEMES/CONCEPTS No awareness 1 1 7 1 1 11 18.6 Minor awareness; from media, observation 2 3 4 8 4 1 22 37.2 Moderate awareness; from media & reading and observation 1 1 2 1 4 2 11 18.6 Significant awareness; from media, 1 2 1 2 2 8 13.6 readings, study and observation Well informed 2 2 1 5 8.5 Believes no impact to business 1 1 2 3.5 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=60) 60 100

At least 15 managers confided that they are confused about the climate change issue and about what impacts it may cause to the environment let alone to businesses in the parks. It is not surprising to me that the subject of climate change and its potential effects

132 on the environment, ski resorts and commerce seem like a foreign language. Climate change is a confusing scientific issue for most people to understand, including many highly educated business people. This is particularly the case given the polarized messages supporting or refuting climate change. Recent reporting of the climate change issue in the media (i.e., “climategate”) continues to create uncertainty in people’s minds about the state of the science and cause and effects of climate change (Weaver, 2009). At least 30% of the managers say they have tuned out the climate change issue because it does not directly interest or affect them. Business managers’ perspectives about the effects of climate change today and in the future include:

I have learned about [the effects of climate change] from newspapers and electronic media. I am noticing the changes … we had the warmest winter [last year] since 1964. It doesn’t look good; there is no doubt about it. (Dave Gibson)

I am well aware of it … there are a number of studies. I am aware of where it is going …. [for example] snow cover and amount is changing and we are trying to mitigate the effects. The treeline is moving up into the alpine. (John X)

Well, it’s pretty hard not to know about it [climate change’s effects]. It’s a pretty hot topic. You know you see it [effects of climate change] on the news quite often and by being in the national parks you’re certainly probably a little more aware than a lot of people…. When I look at this past winter it was a very mild winter. I think it was one of the mildest on record. The ski hill was able to open when it was supposed to open and close when it was supposed to close. It was pretty tough: it wasn’t a big snow year at all …. So, if we have snowmaking facilities, our businesses will actually be stronger for quite some time because of that. (Harold X)

Sandy Best (pers. comm., 2006), who has worked at ski resorts in the Alps, Colorado and at Lake Louise, said “you can see it [happening] now with the changing of the seasons.” Bob X (pers. comm., 2006) indicates that he is “… seeing the changes already … [because] we track trends. Two out of 10 years have [been] good snow.” Other managers can foresee how the projected future impacts of climate change on snow and temperature conditions could impact on skiing activities and ski resorts, and ultimately, on other skiing-dependent businesses in and outside (i.e., Canmore, Golden, Invermere, Hinton, etc.) of the parks. These managers also had a sense of what the ramifications could

133 be on the socio-economic well-being and vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses. Forty nine percent (49%) of managers’ responses suggested they think the impacts may be minimal or moderate negative effects on business, while 28% of responses indicated there may be major negative effects. A small number (10.5%) of responses felt there may be no effect or whatever effects that do occur may be more positive than negative on snow for skiing and businesses in the parks. Using climate model output developed by Scott and Jones (2005) for Banff, the managers were asked to think about and comment on what the snow and temperature conditions may be like at the ski resorts in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s. This task presented a challenge for more than half the managers (see Table 4.12) as they viewed the exercise simply as ‘crystal balling’. The remaining managers felt that skiing and the economic conditions for skiing-dependent businesses may be less ideal (i.e., less snow and shorter ski season) than at present, but that snow and skiing conditions may still be more promising in the parks than those found at other ski resorts in the Cordillera.

TABLE 4.12: How changing snow and temperature in the future may affect skiing.

CATEGORY: Future climate conditions % How do you think the potential changing Total

snow and temperature conditions may Ski buses Ski resorts Car rentals Large hotels impact skiing? Small hotels Medium hotels Ski retail shops THEMES/CONCEPTS Don’t know 1 1 3 2 7 12.2 No effect or positive effects 1 2 1 1 1 6 10.5 Minimal negative effects 1 3 2 1 3 2 11 19.5 Moderate negative effects 1 1 6 5 3 1 17 29.8 Major negative effects 2 1 3 4 5 1 16 28 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=57) 57 100

George Schwarz (pers. comm., 2006), owner of the Post Hotel in Lake Louise, believes that skiing-dependent businesses in the parks may actually benefit from a warming climate, possibly even more so than ski resorts elsewhere in the Canadian Cordillera,

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Australia, Eastern Canada, Europe, Japan, U.K. and U.S.A. Two other managers feel also the parks may be beneficiaries of the changing climate in the parks with both saying:

Canada is now renowned for longer [ski] seasons and more guaranteed snow quality than anywhere else in the world. The area we are in is the only place in the world that can open up in November and ski until May. Most American ski resorts close down the first week of April mainly because of their park constraints, but also now through lack of snow. The Alps close down at the end of or middle of March because of a complete lack of snow (S. Best, 2006).

The location in the national parks is ideal and better than in the U.S.A. New York State ski resorts have a short season. We get to enjoy winter because of elevation and good snow (Barry X, 2006).

Other managers’ thoughts about snow conditions in the future are less enthusiastic with most identifying future negative impacts on snow and skiing:

No doubt there will be effects to skiing. Changing conditions will affect opening and the number of skiers. There will be increased skier traffic in the middle of the ski season with many coming for the sun and warmth of spring skiing (Bob X, 2006).

Expect some changes. Cold temperatures and poor snow could kill skiing. Jasper is different than Banff, the majority of skiers stay overnight … we are the number one ski destination at which skiers stay overnight at least one night. We have limited accommodation space for skiers….This has been a good year, but snow levels are down … it’s not a record year (Dave Gibson, 2006).

Potentially major effects [are expected to impact] on ski resorts. Depth of snow over the long term will be impacted. Snowmaking can substitute for natural snow in places. The water content of snow determine [skiing] quality … we want dry snow. Good snow is [great] for marketing the ski resort (John X, 2006).

In the winter … skiing is the number one draw for the town….The ski season hasn’t really been consistent. A lot of good years … then a bad year and a lean year. If you go back quite a ways and talk to some of the old-timers they will tell you that they have already seen changes in their short lifetimes that they have lived in the park. Phenomenal changes, everything from the tree-line rising to … no really harsh winters like we used to get or snow levels like we used to get (Harold X, 2006).

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One manager has a slightly harder position about the potential effects climate change on snow conditions and business than do the others. He says he has “personal experience with the national ski team. [The climate change issue is] overstated….it is not going to be evident. [He is] not seeing it happen … in his business lifetime” (Ben X, 2006).

FINDING 5: Future vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks from the effects of a changing climate on snow cover and temperatures at ski resorts may be more pronounced than what occurs today, but the effects in the 2020s and 2050s ought to be mitigated with snowmaking capability to permit ski resorts and other ski tourism businesses to continue being viable operations, all other factors held constant (answers research question 4).

Climate models for Banff (Scott and Jones, 2005) and the European Alps (Abegg, et al., 2007; Agrawala, 2007b; Beniston, 1997, 2006; Beniston, et al., 2003; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; and others) suggest that snow cover and the length of the ski season will be less from today to beyond the 2050s. Seventy two percent (49 of 68) of managers’ responses (see Table 4.13) indicated a spectrum of socio-economic collateral damage could occur to their business with a reduction of the number of skiers or closure of the ski resorts in the parks. If the effects of climate change cause closure of the ski resorts, then that would cause serious economic damage to Banff, Lake Louise and Jasper’s businesses, possibly making it difficult (even with summer business) for them to remain viable. Five managers felt that in an extreme case the socio-economic effects resulting from climate change could cause business bankruptcy or closures in the future. Forty four percent (30 of 68 responses) of responses indicated they would try to ride out the winters by diversifying tourist products. Another 13.3% (9 of 68) of responses indicated it is too hard to predict what the socio-economic impacts may be on their business. These managers are not worried and plan to continue business as usual because they feel skiers will still come for the next decade or more.

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TABLE 4.13: Socio-economic impacts to business from long-term climate changes.

CATEOGRY: Future business vulnerability % Total

What, if any, socio-economic impacts do Ski shops Ski resorts Mid hotels Mid hotels Car rentals Large hotels you foresee for your business if poor Small hotels Shuttle buses snow conditions or cold/warm temperatures persist for many years? THEMES/CONCEPTS No response or don’t know 3 1 4 5.9 No impact: skiers still come 1 3 4 5.9 Hard to predict impacts 1 1 1.5 Maintain business as usual 2 2 3 1 8 11.8 Serious damage; difficult to survive; 1 3 2 2 8 11.8 Bankruptcy or closure Shorter winter season; decline in # of skiers 3 1 4 5.8 Reduce staffing & winter operations/rates 2 1 1 3 7 10.3 Ride out winter; diversify winter products from skiers to other sports such as hockey 5 4 9 8 3 1 30 44 tournaments or corporate retreats Close business: rely on summer business 2 2 3 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=68) 68 100

The skiing-dependent businesses may still feel the socio-economic effects even if climate change has moderate to severe impacts on snow cover and temperature conditions (as projected by Scott and Jones, 2005). The ski resorts may not need to close if they are able to make snow at lower and mid level elevations. As Ben X (pers. comm., 2006) indicates, if snow and skiing conditions become so bad that the ski resorts did close, then businesses in Banff and Jasper would be vulnerable and need to shift marketing efforts and business focus away from skiing to other winter activities, such as winter hiking, hockey tournaments or other cold temperature pursuits. Helmut X (pers. comm., 2006) says his hotel would ride out the situation by marketing to a different sector of the regional population. Helmut feels it would be “difficult to operate and make revenue” without skiers, but they would attempt to replace skiers with guests enjoying other non-snow activities, such as winter hiking, to reduce their vulnerability. Helmut also says skiers are fickle and have not loyalty. A ski resort is only as good as the last winter season and word spreads quickly around the world because of the Internet. Jason X (pers. comm., 2006) says

137 it would be a major negative without sufficient snow cover for skiing; and if there is no snow in Edmonton or Calgary, it will also affect day and over night skier-visits from those centres. That would double the impact on skiing-dependent businesses in the parks. Sean O’Farrell36 (pers. comm., 2006) said future climate change would likely have little or no impact on his business because his hotels do well before and after the ski season. Skiing and skiers are important, but a lack of skiers will not make or break his company. Frank X37 (pers. comm., 2006), who only recently arrived in Banff, says he does not anticipate there will be any impact on his hotel. He says, “When the temperature is warmer, there is a greater amount of snow in the mountains, although it can be raining in town.” Vicky Smith38 (pers. comm., 2006) said there would be no impact on her business because most of her business is “pre-paid vacation guests. Destination guests still come … [snow in Banff] is better than snow at home. Regional skiers are necessary to supplement [destination] guests.” Kevin Hann39 (pers. comm., 2006) says about 70% of his business is from skiers, with rental of skis and snowboards being most important. Stephanie Bishop40 (pers. comm., 2006) reports that between 75% and 80% of her business is from skiers, with 70% of those customers being destination skiers and 30% being local and regional skiers. Other comments include:

Yes, [climate change will have an] effect on business. Bad snow years affect business and I have experienced several years (summer mainly) of bad conditions. [It is usually] late snow. This affects the way [ski resorts and hotels] hire … usually late hires. Employees struggle [to make ends meet] and stay at the hotel and eat from the food bank (Lee Anne X41, pers. comm., 2006).

[Need to] be more creative … develop other [tourist] products. Visitation will drop. Currently 80% of revenue is from skiers and 20% from other activities. Need to develop creative marketing and products that de-emphasize skiing and builds on festivals and conferences to draw in people. Need to fill the gap (Vanessa Hugie42, pers. comm., 2006).

36 Sean O’Farrell is Vice President, Marketing for Banff Lodging Ltd. 37 Frank X is a pseudonym because of a request for anonymity. 38 Vicky Smith is the General Manager of Banff Rocky Mountain Resort, and Chair of the Banff Hotel/Motel Association. 39 Kevin Hann is owner/operator of Abominable Sports, Banff. 40 Stephanie Bishop is Manager of Helly Hansen in Banff. 41 Lee Anne X is a pseudonym because of a request for anonymity. 42 Vanessa Hugie is General Manager of Whistler’s Inn, Jasper.

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[There will be a] decline in skiers. It is necessary to re-invent yourself by diversifying business and adapting to each situation. It will require creative marketing [by everyone in the ski tourism sector] (Pedro X43, pers. comm., 2006).

In 1989, half of Banff’s businesses closed [because of an economic downturn]. There was a big marketing investment in the 1990s. In a worse case, many businesses would close in winter and/or focus on [attracting] meetings (Blaine X44, pers. comm., 2006).

[I have] talked about it [climate change]. The summer business is strong; half the revenue comes in one third of the year (summer). Winter is a concern, but I am prepared to close for the winter and will still do well if we close (Mark X45, pers. comm., 2006).

The managers of the four ski resorts indicated that for them to survive multiple years with reduced snow cover and shortened ski seasons, they would need to change lift infrastructure, make and farm (i.e., move) snow on the lower and mid slopes much like they do today, to maintain reasonably high quality skiing at lower elevations above the reliable snowline, which is projected to be around 1,500 m by the 2050s. The ski resorts believe that the capability to make and hold snow cover is critical and will greatly aid them in the future to extend their ski season (Scott, et al, 2003). Eighteen (18%) percent (or 17 of 95) of managers’ responses acknowledged that they are new in the manager position and do not have a long-term (>5 years) residency or work history in the parks. Several of the 17 responses had not experienced any downturn in their short history in the parks because of the reasonably stable economy and good skiing conditions during the past decade. Only the 2004/05 ski season was considered a poor snow year in the past decade (see Figure 4.10). Canada West Ski Areas Association (CWSAA; Figure 4.10), suggests ski resorts were profitable from 1997/98 until the present with the one exception being 2004/05. Prior to 1997/98 the ski seasons, profit – loss by percentage of revenue were erratic and indicated

43 Pedro X is a pseudonym because of a request for anonymity. 44 Blaine X is a pseudonym because of a request for anonymity. 45 Mark X is a pseudonym because of a request for anonymity.

139 some years ski operators operated at a loss. Managers indicate how they plan to cope with future socio-economic downturns:

Cold is not as [great] a problem as [no snow]. No snow doesn’t attract skiers. [Skiers] use the internet to [scout out good skiing opportunities] and can change [their travel plans] easily. They follow the snow. [We] need to be prepared to ride out the storm and not get too far ahead of [skiers] by diversifying our clothing products (Kevin Hann46, 2006).

In poor years [the number of] staff goes down to 1.5 from 1.7 staff on the floor, [store] hours change from the normal 9 a.m. – 10 p.m. 7-days a week to 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. in winter. We increase promotions during winter; and become more involved with ski hill events to expose our brand name at events. [We maintain] good relationships with other [retail] stores (Stephanie Bishop47, 2006).

[We] expanded into other areas … because we are part of a national chain … we hear of other problems [early]. [We] have teamed up with tour groups from the U.K. and Europe … for skiing and ice tours and other things. [We] are diversifying into other areas to be prepared (Allan X48, 2006).

FIGURE 4.10: CANADA WEST SKI AREAS PROFIT LOSS BY PERCENT OF REVENUE Adopted from CWSAA Economic Analysis Reports

40

35 Poor snow year

30 with depressed revenue 25

20

15

10

5

PERCENT OF REVENUE 0

5 0 7 90 /92 97 /02 86/87 93/94 03/04 -5 988/89 995/96 998/99 000/01 005/06 007/08 19 1987/88 1 1989/ 1990/91 1991 1992/93 19 1994/9 1 1996/ 1997/98 1 1999/0 2 2001 2002/03 20 2004/05 2 2006/0 2

-10 SKI SEASONS 1986/87 to 2007/08

(After CWSAA Economic Analysis Reports for 2007/08)

46 Kevin Hann is a business owner/operator in Banff. 47 Stephanie Bishop is a Manager of a corporate retail clothing store in Banff. 48 General Manager of a retail sports shop in the parks.

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Managers’ comments suggest they have not given much, if any, thought to the future effects of climate change on the socio-economics of their businesses. Half the managers suggested that if they can cope with abrupt economic changes, as they have done in the past, they can certainly cope with gradual changes resulting from the effects of climate change.

Socio-economic conditions in the 2020s

Managers were asked how changing snow and temperature conditions in the 2020s may affect their businesses (see Table 4.14). Climate scenario 2020 represents “short-term” planning for the projected effects that climate change may have on skiing-dependent businesses. Fifty four (54 of 65) responses (83.1%) suggested the socio-economic effects by the 2020s may result in only slightly reduced business with moderately negative impacts similar to today’s volatile economy. Managers also stated that they may experience some loss of revenue with the possibility of forcing the business to make minor operational adjustments, such as staffing levels. Managers felt also that there may be some financial instability that would get them started thinking about possible diversification of tourism products.

TABLE 4.14: Impact on business from changing climate conditions in the 2020s

CATEGORY: Future business vulnerability % shops hotels In what way could projected Ski resorts Large hotels changes to snow conditions and Small hotels Medium-sized Total number temperatures in climate scenario Vehicle rentals 2020 from climate change effect the Ski shuttle buses socio-economics of your business? Ski and ski clothing THEMES/CONCEPTS None or minor effect 1 1 1 3 4.6 Survival mode: reduce business; negative impacts; loss of revenue; 1 5 8 11 15 7 3 50 77 close/reduce for season; financial stability; diversify; refocus business Increased business; positive effects 1 1 2 3 Shorten season; depend on snowmaking 4 4 6.1 No response or don’t know 1 4 1 6 9.3 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=65) 65 100

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The big concern of most managers was what would be the response to a shorter ski season from financial and insurance organizations that support skiing-dependent businesses. The four ski resorts stated they would need to depend more on snowmaking capability rather than natural snow cover, slope grooming and on-hill developments to survive. Three (3) of 65 responses (4.6%), however, indicated that they feel the effect of climate change will have little or no effect on their business by the 2020s. Allan X49 (2006) said that he would likely be forced to “shut down his ski business and depend mostly on hockey and other winter activities.” He also noted that extended periods of poor snow conditions or long periods of cold temperatures over many ski seasons will “… scare off skiers … and they [will] leave the hill.” Walter X50 (2006) said he too would “… close the business … that’s a given.” Wendy Hall51 (2006) indicated her business owner “… would not sell skis anymore and that would have a huge effect on the business.” Comments from managers that felt climate change would have a negative effect on their business by 2020 also include:

[It would be a] significant effect on our business …. There would be less water and temperatures for making snow. [There will be] 25% to 30% less business … maybe 15% to 20% less with snowmaking. While the ski hill operates, so will the ski shops. There are other opportunities [to pursue] (Doug Godfrey52, 2006).

[Skiers] still come from the U.K. and Australia. [It will be necessary to] move skiers higher up the slopes … and move more skiers. Many skiers come [here] to learn to ski (Bec Johnson53, 2006).

Only 2 managers’ responses (3%) indicated that the socio-economic effects of climate change may actually have a positive effect and may result in increased business.

49 Allen X is a pseudonym at the request of the interviewee. 50 Walter X is a pseudonym at the request of the interviewee. 51 Wendy Hall is Manager of a retail sports shop in Jasper. 52 Doug Godfrey is owner/operator of multiple retail sport shops in Banff. 53 Bec Johnson is manager retail sports shop in Banff.

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Socio-economic conditions in the 2050s

Managers were asked to project how the socio-economics of their business may be impacted by the effects of climate change in the 2050s (see Table 4.15). This question was similar to the previous question except it is for 30 years later, but they all thought the worse case would happen to their business.

TABLE 4.15: Impact on business from changing climate conditions in the 2050s

CATEGORY: Future business vulnerability %

In what way could projected Ski resorts

changes to snow conditions and Large hotels Small hotels Vehicle rentals Medium hotels Total numbers temperatures in climate scenario Ski/ski clothing 2050 from climate change effect Ski shuttle buses the socio-economics of your business? THEMES/CONCEPTS No or minor effects 1 1 2 3.5 Reduced business; negative impacts; loss of revenue; 1 5 4 13 11 2 36 62 close/reduce for season; financial stability; diversify; refocus; banks Increased business; positive effects 1 1 2 3.5 Shorten season; depend on snowmaking 2 1 4 1 8 14 No response or don’t know 2 1 2 3 1 1 10 17 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=58) 58 100

Thirty six (36 or 62%) of responses suggested the businesses may experience greatly increased negative socio-economic impacts compared with the 2020s. They felt climatic changes at the ski resorts may likely cause reduced business and profit for their businesses and possible closures, financial instability, concern from the financial lending institutions, and a need to diversify or refocus the business. Ten (10 or 17%) of managers simply could not even guess at what the socio-economic conditions might be like in the 2050s, while 14% (8 of 58 responses) ventured an opinion that there would be a greater reliance on snowmaking (by the ski resorts) to sustain and extend the ski season. Two of 58 responses (3.5%) maintain there will be no or only minor effects on skiing-dependent businesses by

143 the 2050s; and another two responses (3.5%) felt there will be positive effects coming from climate change, and suggested business may well improve rather than decline.

Adapting to future changes

Managers were asked how they plan to adapt, innovate or introduce best practices in the future to sustain their winter operations (see Table 4.16). Most managers do not see the climate change issue as one that needs their immediate attention, and will deal with it if and when it becomes an issue. Ten (10) of 117 responses (8.5%) indicate they have not taken any proactive measures, nor plan to in the immediate future, to help sustain business over the long-term (the 2020s or 2050s). Even the 2020s is well beyond their business planning horizon. Forty seven (47 of 117) responses (40%) suggest their strategy would be to diversify to non-skiing focused winter activities including adventure and leisure events. Fifty one (51 of 117) responses (43.5%) report they have a number of changes (they did not share these possible changes) they can make to their business operations. Other managers indicate they will aggressively market nationally and internationally, and brand the parks as more than a ski destination by creating other reasons for tourists to come. Some businesses, such as the Banff Springs Hotel, have already introduced a health spa and conference centre for an increased business meeting focus. Five of the 51 responses suggest it may be time for ski tourism businesses to collaborate more than they do already with each other or shift business to another location. At least one bus company’s strategy in the future is to relocate or transfer part or all of its fleet to other locations outside the parks (i.e., Vancouver, B.C.). One vehicle rental business indicates its strategy is to reduce fleet size and sell off extra stock if the economic situation should get worse.

Other managers’ responses about adaptation strategies include:

[I] don’t know … [I] may not have a business … I am avoiding thinking about it. [We will make] no drastic changes … simply adapt. Retail changes, but it is progressive and evolve with a mix of [tourism] products (Gordon X54, 2006).

54 Gordon X, a pseudonym, requested anonymity.

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Not a lot! [Probably] attack skiing markets…hope to pre-book ski rentals…by working with hotels and international tour operators (Randy X55, 2006).

[No plans] at this point. Maybe retirement! [I have] not planned anything. [Maybe] switch to other seasonal products and hope the ski hills will [survive]. [I’m] not too terribly concerned there may be no skiing season. I will carry on with business. [We may be affected by events such as] another 911 and from other competition (Doug Godfrey, 2006).

[Yes our] plan is to diversify … we can still make money with Nordic skiing. Nordic skiing doesn’t take that much snow … and customers would enjoy skating.… I’d probably have a smaller [ski] rental fleet … I’d put it down here [in the basement] in April instead of May (Bill Keeling56, 2006).

TABLE 4.16: Adaptive measures, best practices or innovations considered or implemented.

CATEGORY: % What, if any, adaptive measures, best practices or innovations has Ski resorts Med hotels Large hotels your company considered or Small hotels Total number Skis & clothing Skis & clothing

implemented to help it sustain Vehicle Rentals winter operations in the future? Ski shuttle buses

THEMES/CONCEPTS None 2 8 10 8.5 Snow-making, snow cover protection, farming, new technology, new 9 1 1 11 9.4 systems and other snow management changes More marketing, markets and 1 5 5 11 2 24 20.5 branding; create reason to come Conferences and meeting focus 4 3 4 11 9.4 Collaborate with others in community 1 3 1 5 4.2 Diversify to non skiing focus/adventures/leisure; spas; change 6 7 12 14 4 4 47 40 rates; part-time workers; layoff staff; close for season; build an airport Relocate/transfer operations; change 4 3 7 6 fleet size; sell stock No response 1 1 2 2 TOTAL RESPONSES (n=117) 117 100

55 Randy X, a pseudonym, requested anonymity. 56 Bill Keeling is General Manager of a large sports shop in the parks.

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Managers’ responses suggest that they have not given much thought to the introduction of innovative solutions to the future changing economic environment. The solutions they would adapt to address the future economic environment are likely the same ones they use today and in the past: lay offs, late hires, downsizing the operations, closure and reducing stock.

Sharing knowledge, innovation and adaptation methods

Getting a new idea adopted within a single company is a challenge; it is an even greater challenge to have an idea adopted by an entire business sector, such as the ski tourism sector in Banff and Jasper. The diffusion of innovation is a lengthy process, often requiring many years from the time the innovation was first introduced to the time it becomes widely adopted by business (Rogers, 2003). Managers were asked how they share or spread information related to adaptation or innovation techniques or practices with other members of the tourism industry (see Table 4.17). The finding suggests that the skiing- dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper, although competitors, are open to sharing and learning from each other. Most information is spread through formal business groups.

TABLE 4.17: Diffusion of innovation, adaptation and best practices

CATEGORY: % Do you share adaptation and

innovation information related to Ski resorts tourism products and best Large hotels Small hotels Vehicle rentals Medium hotels Total numbers

practices among members of your Ski shuttle buses Ski/clothing shop shop Ski/clothing industry sector? THEMES/CONCEPTS No; not directly; keep close or no 1 1 3 11 2 3 21 16.4 competitors; few secrets among industry Yes; informally; watch others 2 4 3 7 8 3 1 28 22 Yes, formally through industry groups; 2 2 5 8 2 3 3 25 19.5 personal friendship with other managers Jointly with tourism bureau and 3 7 9 13 5 4 1 32 25 Hotel/Motel Association Through trade show, conferences or ski 4 1 3 5 7 1 1 22 17.1 organizations TOTAL RESPONSES (n=128) 128 100

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All the accommodation businesses are members of the hotel/motel, Banff Lake Louise Tourism or Jasper chamber of commerce organizations. A quarter of managers’ responses (25%) indicate that it is at meetings of these organizations that members benefit from interacting and sharing information with others involved in the same industry. Even so, innovation is often slow to be adopted by other businesses. Others managers (22%) say they observe how similar businesses make changes and often copy the changes, while 19.5% of responses indicate managers share information and ideas between each other through personal friendships and association. At least 17% of responses indicate they learn about new best practices or innovation through attendance at trade shows and conferences where such practices or innovations are introduced. Dr. Jeremy Hall57 (pers. comm., 2005) suggests the diffusion of innovative products, ideas or best practices are frequently spread fastest among a business sector, particularly a close-knit business sector like that found in Banff and Jasper, by word of mouth or observation. I found more than 50% of more progressive managers pick up and experiment with innovative ideas and best practices from sources such as trade organizations, trade magazines, industry sales representatives, conferences and trade shows. Other managers, generally not the leaders, watch what their competition is doing (i.e., intelligence gathering) and react by emulating the innovation. Some business managers capitalize on the opportunity to learn or implement innovation, while other managers seem content to be less reactive, preferring instead to maintain the status quo. Even though skiing-dependent businesses in the parks share information, they do not share confidential and strategic business information. All the managers are closed mouth on this subject and keep this type of information strictly to themselves. Barry X (2007) indicates that he is willing to share general business information and discuss operational challenges quite openly with other related businesses and industry associations, but he does not reveal any details about his business. He says he personally picks up ideas and information from not only various other tourism organizations, industry associations and trade shows, but also by visiting managers of other related businesses. He learns most

57 Dr. Jeremy Hall is a former Associate Professor of Innovation at Haskayne School of Business, now at Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, B.C.

147 by observing what other related businesses are doing. Bob X (2006) indicates that he collaborates with his competition about how to get more skiers to Banff and Jasper by adopting a common marketing strategy. He says members of his sector collaborate to attract skiers from other regional ski resort areas. David Roberts (2006) says the accommodation sector does share information with the local competition but only through industry organizations. He often looks to the smaller businesses to see what innovation and best practices they have adopted to see if they are suitable for his business. He, too, works with the various marketing agencies to attract skiers to the parks, even thought skiers make up a small part of his winter revenue stream. William X (pers. comm.., 2006) illustrates just how close-knit the business communities are in Banff and Jasper when he says there are few secrets among the various skiing-dependent sectors in the parks. A few other managers comment:

Personally, yes [I share information with my competition]… through the Banff Hotel/Motel Association and the Banff Lake Louise Tourism Bureau … where we share ideas. I am more outspoken and want to have input … particularly in local politics. Most information is obtained when we send staff to trade shows (Bob X, 2006).

[Yes] very much so … that’s the point of having the Hotel/Motel Association … we get reports by members. There was a time it was very competitive … but we don’t pirate other businesses market share … it’s a collaborative effort (Marcel X, 2006).

Yes … we are still competitors. We draw on the marketing organization and outside marketing agencies to advertise outside Jasper. [It is] difficult to market alone … [we] need to cooperate together … since we are all in the park (George Andrew58, 2006).

Yes … some guard [information]. [We draw on the] Hotel/Motel Association and the Alberta Hotel Lodging Association …. [where] we meet once a month … at breakfast. We imitate the most successful and creative ideas (Dave McKenna59, 2006).

58 George Andrew is General Manager and owner of a small hotel in the parks. 59 Dave McKenna is General Manager of a large hotel in the parks.

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Not all skiing-dependent business sectors are inclined or motivated to share innovative ideas and best business practices. For example a couple of ski retail business managers say:

There isn’t a mechanism [to share information] … business is close [chested] and intensely competitive in the parks. [We are] often over supplied60 at the retail level. We follow our own vision … and must be quick to innovate and bring in new products. Skiing is a small market … many supplier representatives are the source of information and gossip. We also attend ski shows [to learn about new products] and pricing (Kevin Hann61, 2006).

No [we don’t share with the competition]. [We attend] trade shows and watch the [broader] market place … where new trends are picked up and applied locally. We visit other stores to see how it is being done differently elsewhere … the industry drives the trends … and then these are introduced into the [local] market (Gordon X, 2006).

Sharing and collaborating with local and regional competitors can and does aid businesses in the diffusion of innovative ideas and technology that can better position a tourism destination to compete with regional, domestic and international tourism destinations (J. Hall, pers. comm., 2005).

4.3 CHAPTER SUMMARY

This chapter presented and discussed the five findings emerging from my research. The findings answer the four research questions. The raw data for this study was derived by applying the geographical factors index to each of the 24 ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera to determine how the four ski resorts in the parks compared with the regional competition. The second source of raw data is from the face-to-face interviews with 60 skiing-dependent business managers. Additional information was drawn from literature on mountain and ski tourism; the review, analysis and interpretation of the outcomes of the climate models prepared by Scott and Jones (2005) for scenarios 2020 and 205062; and from an interpretation of the economic reports about the importance of skiing to the

60 ‘Over supplied’ means too many of a similar type business in one community. 61 Kevin Hann is owner/operator of Abominable Sports in Banff. 62 No new modelling was undertaken during my study.

149 economy of Banff and Jasper National Parks and other ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. Interviews with skiing-dependent business managers determined how informed and well prepared the managers are to cope with both positive and negative socio-economic effects from a changing climate that may occur in the 2020s and 2050s. Managers’ quotes are included in this chapter to build confidence in findings 3, 4 and 5.

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CHAPTER 5: INTERPRETATION OF FINDINGS

5.1 INTRODUCTION

Chapter 5 discusses and interprets each finding from chapter 4 to answer the research questions. My approach to arriving at answers to my research questions was to interpret the findings separately to uncover any patterns and themes to establish theoretical concepts. I then compared and evaluated (i.e., triangulated) across the five findings to determine the inter-connectedness of each finding and ultimately arrive at a primary conclusion in chapter 6. Although I adopted elements of grounded theory, I did not intend to generate substantive theory. My goal was to answer my research questions, not to develop and test substantive theory. I have generated theoretical findings, which may serve me well in the future to initiate development of substantive theory. Developing substantive theory beyond this dissertation may be my next step or for another researcher to pursue. Chapter 5 is organized into five sections each dealing with the interpretation and discussion of individual findings, followed by the answers to the research questions.

5.2 FINDING 1: GEOGRAPHICAL FACTORS INDEX The geographical factors index (GFI) ranked the four ski resorts in Banff and Jasper National Parks in the top 7 best rated of the 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. The four resorts rated high because they possess geographic advantages that may serve to help delay the growing effects of climate change so the ski resorts may continue offering skiers a high quality skiing experience well into the 2020s and 2050s, all other business and economic factors remaining constant (answers research question 1).

The four ski resorts in the parks ranked highest (1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 7th) of 24 ski resorts included in the geographical factors index. The significance of finding 1 is that it suggests the four ski resorts in the parks are theoretically among only a small number, possibly as few as 10 of the 24 regional ski resorts (see Table 5.1) currently operating in the Canadian Cordillera that may still be fully operational, albeit with reduced snow cover and ski season

151 length, in the 2020s and 2050s. The four resorts should continue receiving reliable snow depth conditions, when supplemented with snowmaking, above the estimated 1,500 m reliable snowline projected for the Cordillera by the 2050s. The top 10 ski resorts in the Cordillera, as determined by the geographical factors index, are listed in Table 5.1. The top 10 resorts benefit from a greater degree of the key geographical factors that other ski resorts do not possess. Through the creation of the GFI, it was possible for me to collect, examine and interpret these geographic factors to allow me to infer which of the regional ski resorts may be most or least vulnerable (high, medium or low vulnerability) to the effects of climate change. Only the 10 ski resorts in Table 5.1 are rated at low vulnerability and high prospect to succeed.

Table 5.1: Ski resorts in the Cordillera with high GFI ratings likely to be operable in the 2020s and 2050s

REGIONAL SKI Location GFI Prospect Base Summit RESORT Rating by 2050 Elevation Elevation (masl) (masl) 1 Sunshine Village Banff 90 High 1,660 2,730 2 Lake Louise Resort Banff 85 High 1,646 2,607 3 Marmot Basin Jasper 83 High 1,704 2,612 4 Apex Mountain B.C. 79 High 1,575 2,178 5 Whitewater B.C. 78 High 1,640 2,040 7 Mount Norquay Banff 71 High 1,600 2,133 8 Nakiska Alberta 70 High 1,575 2,260 9 Whistler/Blackcomb B.C. 64* High ~ 1,600 2,284 10 Revelstoke/Mackenzie B.C. 53* High ~1,600 2,225 (*Whistler/Blackcomb and Mt. Mackenzie are included because they can operate from mid mountain elevations using lifts to transport skiers to and from the base).

Whistler/Blackcomb and Mount Mackenzie (Revelstoke) are included in the top 10 because, although the base elevation is considerably lower than other ski resorts, like Sunshine Village with its gondola from the parking lot, Whistler/Blackcomb and Mount Mackenzie are also able to transport skiers from the valley bottom to an elevation where there is good snow and skiing conditions. Other ski resorts do not have the lift infrastructure or lift configuration to allow for that.

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It is becoming more apparent today, particularly in the European Alps, that the mix of geographic factors present at each ski resort is critical to a ski resort’s continued success and ability to reduce, delay or buffer over the long-term the onset of the warming effects of climate change on snow cover and temperatures (Abegg, et al., 2007; Beniston, 1997, 2003 and 2006; Beniston, et al., 1997; Beniston, et al., 2003; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; Burki, et al., 2003a and 2003b; Elsasser and Burki, 2002; and Elsasser and Messerli, 2001). Some ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera, especially those located in the Canadian Rockies and other British Columbia Interior mountain ranges (e.g., Selkirk, Purcell and Monashee mountain ranges in Eastern British Columbia), are well situated (i.e., with respect to continentality) and endowed with geographic, climatic and topographic advantages that other resorts in the Cordillera do not share equally. Other ski resorts in British Columbia, particularly those located in the Lower Mainland, are not as well situated relative to elevation or to the proximity of warm moist weather conditions. These ski resorts also tend to have low base and summit elevations where warmer temperature are experienced to a greater extent than at other high-elevation, inland ski resorts. The ski resorts ranked low down on the GFI rating scale may find that after the 2020s they may have to close periodically or operate intermittently on weekends as inter-annual snow conditions allow. Some ski resorts have already experienced this situation. Most of the ski resorts not on the list (see Table 5.1) may not be fully operational often between the 2020s and 2050s, even with snowmaking capability. A similar situation to that projected for the Canadian Cordillera by the 2020s is beginning to be experienced by some low elevation ski regions in the European and Australian Alps (Abegg, et al., 2007; Beniston, 1997; Beniston, 2003; Beniston, 2006; Beniston, et al., 1997; Beniston, et al., 2003; Breiling and Charamza, 1999; Burki, et al., 2003a; Burki, et al., 2003b; Diaz, et al., 2003; Elsasser and Burki, 2002; Elsasser and Messerli, 2001; Hennessy et al., 2008; Köenig and Abegg, 1997; Moen and Fredman, 2007; Mueller and Weber, 2008; Scherrer and Appenzeller, 2004). These ski regions may be the ‘canary in the mine’ and serve as a modern day analogue for the Canadian Cordilleran. The influence of future climate change was not likely a consideration many years ago when most, if not all, ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera were initially designed and

153 built. All the regional ski resorts in the Cordillera pre-date the concern about a warming climate. However, the importance of topographic, climatic and geographic factors and the role they play today and into the long-term future cannot be overlooked or downplayed for future ski resort development (for example, Jumbo Glacier). There are many examples of ski hills closing because they were in the wrong location to capture and retain snow cover or they were not of high enough quality skiing to attract skiers. Wintergreen near Bragg Creek, Fortress Mountain in Kananaskis and Pigeon Mountain near Canmore, Alberta are three such examples. These examples highlight that geographic factors, particularly elevation, are critical to capturing snow and retaining it for the ski season. One key geographic characteristic common to the 24 regional ski resorts is the shifting elevational range of the snow reliability line – the snowline (see Figure 5.1). To my knowledge, no agency in Canada formally monitors or measures the elevation of the snow reliability line. Determination of the snow reliability line is by visual estimation, either from a satellite image, photograph or eye-balled from a valley location. Transport Canada in Canada and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S.A. issue weather information for North America. These weather reports include information about the elevation of the freezing level, but not the ‘snowfall line’ or the reliable snowline63. The variable freezing level (i.e., zero isotherm) in an air mass is estimated by weather agencies to be as much as 300 m above the snowfall line, which in late fall may be the same elevation as the snowline. In the Canadian Cordillera, as in other mountain regions, the elevation of the snowfall line and the snow reliability line varies with location and slope aspect. The snow reliability line (or zone) is not at a consistent or common altitude across the entire Cordillera. It varies significantly from the coast to the Rockies. Figure 5.1 illustrates the difference between the snowfall line and snow reliability line for a mountain area in Northern California. Several ski resorts in the Cordillera can transport skiers from snow free base areas up to the skiable area. The resort’s skiable area needs to be above the reliable snowline,

63 The reliable snowline is the zone above which the accumulation of snowfall exceeds ablation. Below the snowline zone, ablation exceeds accumulation following deposition of snow.

154 unless snowmaking supplements snow cover below the snowline. In the parks, the mid ski season reliable snowline is currently approximate 1,100 m to 1,200 m, which is below valley elevation making it difficult to accurately establish the elevation. The projected reliable snowline by the 2050s is estimated by Scott and Jones (2005) to be about 1,500 m. The base elevation of the four ski resorts in the parks is all above 1,600 m, which places them well above the mid ski season reliable snow zone by the 2050s. This situates the resorts at an elevation where they should be able to receive snow cover, supplemented with snowmaking, to continue offering a quality skiing experience for the foreseeable future. Other ski resorts in the Cordillera with base elevations at or below 1,500 m may not be as fortunate between the 2020s and 2050s.

FIGURE 5.1: Snowfall line and snow reliability line (snowline)

Approximate Snow Reliability Line

Approximate Snowfall Line

Photo credit: D. Reynolds

Two managers (John X and S. Best, pers. comm., 2006) say the reliable snowline in mountain regions varies greatly over the ski season and between valleys. It may be as low

155 as sea level at times during the ski season along the coast to more than 1,500 m in some dry zones in the central plateau regions of British Columbia and Alberta. When there is deep snow depth on the ground at Banff townsite after a fresh snow storm at an elevation of 1,400 m, the reliable snowline is at an elevation lower than the valley bottom. As ablation (i.e., snow melt) occurs in the valley bottom, the reliable snowline slowly rises in elevation to a point where snow cover ablation and accumulation is balanced (see Figure 5.1). The elevation of the reliable snowline can change rapidly depending upon the changing warm or cold synoptic weather systems (i.e., snow storms), the constantly changing daily freezing levels, depth of snowfall, Chinook wind influences and temperature inversions. By late spring ski season, the reliable snowline in the Bow Valley may reach 1,400 m to 1,500 m. By the time the snowline approaches the 1,600 m elevation, Marmot Basin, Lake Louise, Mount Norquay and Sunshine Village are experiencing spring melt (i.e., slush conditions) at the base elevations and may be closed or getting ready to close for the season. Beniston (2003), Elsasser and Bürki (2002), Elsasser and Messerli (2001), and Köenig and Abegg (1997) suggest that the reliable snowline elevation in the European Alps, which currently is estimated to average around 1,200 m, similar to the approximate elevation in Banff, may rise to about 1,600 m by the 2050s and 1,800 m by 2100. Beniston (2003: 10) says:

As warming progresses in the future, regions where snowfall is the current norm will increasingly experience precipitation in the form of rain. For every oC increase in temperature, the [reliable] snowline will rise by about 150 m.

It is likely the Canadian Rockies may, in time, begin mirroring the reliable snowline elevation and many of the snow cover conditions currently being experienced in the Alps. Skiers, like many golfers today, may need to travel greater distances to enjoy skiing at the remaining regional ski resorts in the Cordillera by the 2050s. The inference is that the ski resorts in the parks could capture more market share from other resorts as they close down operations between the 2020s and 2050s. Likewise, as quality skiing declines elsewhere in Eastern Canada, Europe, U.K., U.S.A., Australia, and Japan skiers from these

156 locations may elect to travel greater distances to experience a higher quality skiing experience than may still be available in Banff and Jasper (Elsasser and Bürki, 2002; Elsasser and Messerli, 2001).

5.3 FINDING 2: CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS An examination and interpretation of climate model projections for snow cover and ski season length for climate scenarios 2020 and 2050 in Banff infer that there may be less natural snow cover and shorter ski seasons during most winters unless natural conditions are mitigated with snowmaking capability at elevations above 1,600 m (answers research question 2).

Finding 2 addresses the question most skiing-dependent business managers have asked about whether or not there may still be skiing in Banff and Jasper in the 2020s and 2050s. My interpretation of the climate model projections for snow depth and ski season length is that skiing may likely be possible and the ski resorts should be able to continue providing a high quality skiing experience, all other factors held constant. Scott and Jones (2005) used several climate models endorsed by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their study of the potential impact of climate change on snow and temperatures for scenarios 2020 and 2050 in Banff. The models projected progressively less reliable inter-annual natural snow depth and an increasingly shorter ski season from the 2020s to the 2050s (Scott and Jones, 2005). The key to extending the amount of ski season and increasing snow depth at all ski resorts, particularly at the base and middle elevations, is the ability to supplement natural snow cover with snowmaking technology (Scott et al, 2003). Without expanded snowmaking capability and access to sufficient water supply, the operating situation for the ski resorts could be impacted negatively if the ski resorts rely solely on natural snow cover. A series of low-snow years could be detrimental to not only the ski resorts, but also to the other skiing-dependent businesses in the parks.

Changing snow depth in Banff National Park

The evidence to support my interpretation is found in Scott and Jones’ (2005) climate model projections that natural snow depth conditions at the ski resorts may decline

157 substantially at both 1,600 m and 2,600 m between today (2010) and the 2050s. Scott and Jones’ models project for scenario 2020 at 1,600 m reduced inter-annual natural snow depth ranging between 221 cm to 224 cm from the modelled snow fall of 241 cm (see Table 4.6 and Figure 5.2). At 2,600 m, models project reduced inter-annual natural snow depth of 333 cm from the modelled snow fall of 344 cm (see Table 4.6 and Figure 5.3). The ski resorts operators do not consider this reduction to be a significant loss of natural snow cover. Rather this loss is within the lower end of the range they can operate within for both 1,600 m and 2,600 m (John X, S. Best, D. Gibson, pers. comm., 2006; Barry X, pers. comm., 2007), but not for more than two or three ski seasons. The operators suggest that skiing will not likely be impacted to any great extent in the 2020s, particularly if they can continue making snow on the lower slopes as they do today (2006). My interpretation of the situation projected for the 2020s is that skiing and ski resorts in the Cordillera, all other factors remaining constant, will still be fully operational with the aid of snowmaking on the lower slopes.

FIGURE 5.2: Projected daily average snow depth at Banff in scenario 2020 (1,600 m)

Range of 1961-90 snowfall from most optimistic NCAR to less optimistic CGCM2 in mid- winter in the 2020s

CCSRN

(After Scott and Jones, 2005)

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Climate scenarios for Banff in the 2050s at 1,600 m project a further decline in inter-annual natural snow depth of 193 cm to 205 cm from the modelled 241 cm (see Tables 4.5 and 4.6 in chapter 4). At 2,600 m elevation, models project a reduced inter- annual natural snow depth of from 306 cm to 320 cm from the modelled 344 cm. This level of reduced inter-annual natural snow cover is a significant loss, particularly at lower elevations, and the ski resort operators consider this level of reduced snow cover (see Figure 5.4, least optimistic scenario) as being outside of the tolerable snow depth variability range (John X, S. Best, D. Gibson, pers. comm., 2006; Barry X, pers. comm., 2007) sufficient for skiing (see Figures 5.4 and 5.5).

FIGURE: 5.3: Projected daily average snow depth at Banff (2,600 m) in scenario 2020

Skewed 30- year average snow depth at 2,600 m for 2020s shows little variance 1961-90 between optimistic and less NCAR CGCM2 CCSR optimistic snow cover

(After Scott and Jones, 2005)

The ski resort operators infer that under all but the least optimistic scenario, skiing on natural snow may be possible at high elevations, but not likely without supplemental snowmaking at low elevations. If these types of snow-drought conditions prevail for more than two or three years, it may affect the quality of skiing, the reputation of the ski resorts and the continued viability of the resorts’ operations. The expansion of snowmaking

159 capability to high elevations may provide resort operators with greater assurance of better snow cover, at least at lower elevations (Scott and Jones, 2005; Scott et al. 2003). Sandy Best (pers. comm., 2006) suggested that even during the least optimistic scenario (i.e., CCSR model) for 2050 at 2,600 m (see Figures 5.4 and 5.5), given the error factor in the climate models (see Figure 4.5 in chapter 4), if snow cover at high elevation reaches at least 40 cm by mid ski season, there still may be sufficient snow cover to pack most of the slopes to permit skiing. He suggests that under limited snow depth conditions, there may be more exposed hazards, but skiing should still be possible at Lake Louise, Sunshine and the other high elevation ski resorts in the region. During the two peak skiing times in scenario 2050, the ski resorts may be compromised during the less optimistic scenario because of a greater likelihood there may be limited snow depth at those times of the ski season.

FIGURE 5.4: Projected daily average snow depth at Banff (1,600 m) in scenario 2050

Variance 1961-90 from 30-year average ‘bell NCAR curve- shaped’ graph CGCM2 line. Range of snowfall from ‘most CCSR optimistic (NCAR)’ to ‘less optimistic (CCSR)’ in early, mid and late- winter in the 2050s at low elevation

(After Scott and Jones, 2005)

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FIGURE 5.5: Projected daily average snow depth at Banff (2,600 m) in scenario 2050

• Great 1961-90 variance between NCAR optimistic and less CGCM2 optimistic snow cover CCSR • Most optimistic snow cover • Less optimistic snow cover

(After Scott and Jones, 2005)

Changing ski season length at Banff

Under natural snow conditions (except in extreme snow years), the length of the ski season in the 2020s and 2050s is projected to be reduced from today’s ski season length, resulting in potentially greatly shortened ski seasons and reduced profitability for the ski resorts and other skiing-dependent businesses in Banff (Scott and Jones, 2005). If snowmaking capability is factored into the model calculation, then the ski season is not impacted (reduced) to the same extent. The projected ski season in the 2050s with snowmaking remains basically unchanged at 2,600 m. This suggests the ski resorts will be able to maintain normal operations and provide continued quality skiing at higher elevations. This is also the finding in the Swiss Alps (Abegg, et al. 2007; Agrawala, 2007a, 2007b; Beniston, 2003, 2006; and others). At 1,600 m, the importance of snowmaking becomes more evident to the length of the ski season. With snowmaking, the ski resorts may experience a 7% to 15% loss of ski season in the 2020s; and 9% to 43% less ski season in the 2050s (Scott and Jones, 2005; p 14) (see Table 4.7 in chapter 4). The low elevation slopes are projected to experience the greatest impacts from a changing climate in the 2020s and 2050s, even at an elevation

161 above 1,600 m. With a reduced ski season at the lower elevations by the 2050s, the ski resorts may still be able to offer quality skiing, except possibly during occasional snow drought years (S. Best, pers. comm., 2006). The computer projections highlight the importance of expanded snowmaking capability, and may make the difference between a successful ski season and an abbreviated one.

Changing ski season length at Lake Louise

Climate models produced similar results at Lake Louise as at Banff. The models projected reduced ski season for the Lake Louise ski resort (see Table 4.8 in chapter 4), which, like Sunshine Village, is in a micro climate unlike the climate experienced at Banff townsite. Under natural snow conditions (except in extreme snowfall years), the length of the ski season in the 2020s and 2050s is projected to be reduced at all elevations, likely reducing profitability for the ski resort and other skiing-dependent businesses in the park (Scott and Jones, 2005). However, factor in snowmaking capability in the models and the ski season is not impacted to the same extent. For example, the projected ski season with snowmaking remains basically unchanged by the 2020s and 2050s at 1,600m and 2,600 m, suggesting that skiing will likely be unaffected. This suggests Lake Louise may likely be able to maintain normal operations and provide continued quality skiing well into the middle of this century.

5.4 FINDING 3: CURRENT SKI TOURISM BUSINESS VULNERABILITY Current socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks from the effects of a changing climate on snow cover and temperatures is low and manageable relative to what may be the possible situation in the 2020s and 2050s (answers research questions 3 and 4).

Ski tourism in Banff and Jasper is reasonably healthy in the decade leading up to 2010. Both Banff and Jasper have experienced declining summer and winter visitation in the past decade. Managers and tourism marketing agencies report that ski tourism is down as a result of a number of factors, including: the continued post-911 effects, the need for

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U.S. citizens to have passports, complications of SARS and H1N1, other geopolitical turmoil, the state of the global economy and the increasing cost of skiing. Although the warming climate is impacting glaciers and icefields in the parks, managers suggest that it is unlikely the decline in skier visitation to the parks and reduced revenues for skiing-dependent businesses currently or in the past has anything to do with the increasing effects of climate change on the environment (i.e., snow cover and temperatures). The noticeable effects of climate change on snow cover and temperatures are projected to occur slowly, almost imperceptibly to the average person, over the next decade. The socio-economic effects may be experienced first by the ski resorts, but not likely felt by ski tourism businesses for sometime afterwards, likely a lag of several years. Managers report that even though winter revenues and number of visitors is down over the past decade, business has still been reasonably good and consistent because the skiing conditions have been good. The most evident effects that climate change is projected to have in the future is on the amount, placement and length of time snow cover is at the ski resorts. Some years there may be snow drought and other years may experience frequent extreme storms. Ski resorts require deep snow cover, generally 30 cm or more, early in the fall to establish a deep enduring base layer. If the ski resorts get too little snow cover or the snow comes too late in the fall, there may be poor skiing conditions to start the ski season. This will be a particular challenge for ski resorts, particularly if the poor conditions extend into the lucrative Christmas/New Year’s period. Dry snow (not heavy wet snow or slush) is the critical element for skiing. Without good snow cover, skiers may not be attracted to a ski resorts. The ski resorts in the parks generally receive dry snow at the start of the ski season. The businesses that depend on skiers may not be directly affected by climate change on snow cover as the ski resorts are, but they are definitely affected by collateral effect of a lack of skiers. Their winter livelihood and revenue source comes mainly from regional and destination skiers. This is the primary reason the business stay open during the winter. Managers have dealt with poor ski seasons and abrupt economic and market forces in the past. Most businesses have survived these economically challenging experiences. Managers says they, or their successors, will use that knowledge and experience to cope with

163 changing market forces and the physical and socio-economic effects of climate change in the 2020s and 2050s. Most of the skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper are small businesses. Only a quarter of the managers indicate they operate with a formal written business plan or operational plan that sets out the future strategy for the business. These are mostly the larger businesses, such as the large hotels and bus companies. The remaining managers work with a variety of informal planning processes, including setting out a one or two year budget plan (usually the franchise businesses); planning 16 to 18 months ahead based on stock ordering timeframes; or more commonly, the manager carries a plan in his/her head. Regardless of the planning process adopted, each manager say they need to have the freedom and flexibility to quickly adjust business operations based on abruptly changing trends or market forces. At least 50% of managers indicate that they have conducted their small business quite successfully through good and bad times without the need of a formal business plan, some for several decades. Most managers work by intuition, monitoring the marketplace and relying on past experience. Several long-time managers say that their past experience with economic ups and downs is the best teacher to deal with future sudden or long-term economic changes. They have learned from the ‘school of hard knocks’ that a tourism business, particularly a ski tourism business, needs to be able to upsize or downsize (close if necessary) operations within a very short period of time (within days) in order to avoid economic conditions that may drastically affect profitability. The managers say they do not need a business plan to tell them when to make changes to their operating paradigm, just common sense. Five of the experienced managers indicated they closely monitor world events and trends to stay abreast of things happening in the global and local business environment, and they do not plan much more than one season ahead because of market volatility. Some managers admit they only stay open during the winter to compete with their competition. They often find their winter business runs a deficit that siphons profit away from the more lucrative summer season. The challenge for new managers is learning business strategy and tactics from experienced managers. Small businesses are typically owner operated and do not seem to have a succession process (most staff are seasonal employees) where the experienced

164 manager shares his/her knowledge with the next generation of potential managers. The likelihood is the knowledge may not be transferred to the next generation, but rather lost when the manager sells or closes the business. Mid-sized and large businesses seem to have a succession process – an internship – particularly businesses such as the large Fairmont brand. The vast majority of the managers know their winter business is tied to skiers and the ski resorts. For most skiing-dependent businesses, the winter season does not start until the ski resorts open for the season. Even though the managers acknowledge the relationship between their business and the ski resorts, about 10% do not see how the changing climate will affect snow conditions at the ski resorts or how that may impact the viability of either the resort or their business. That may be just a matter of being more aware of the externalities that influence one’s business. None of the managers have included proactive strategies or tactics in their business operations to mitigate the potential socio-economic effects of climate change because it is not seen as a priority issue at this time. A number of managers indicted that if the effects of climate change do not impact them today, they will deal with it when the time comes. Most managers recognize that the socio-economic effects of climate change will occur slowly over a period of many years and not likely occur abruptly like an economic downturn. Because of the pace of climate change, the managers feel they have the adaptive capacity and operational flexible to adjust quickly or as needed to accommodate the future socio- economic changes. Only a small number of managers (~10) reported having experience dealing with socio-economic conditions resulting from poor ski seasons or economic conditions in the past that impacted winter tourism. However, the managers say their experience with poor ski seasons goes back two decades rather than within the past decade. Snow and skiing conditions at the ski resorts in the past decade have been reasonably good, except for the winter of 2004/2005, which the ski resort managers considered a bad ski season. The tactics managers used during poor ski seasons or economic downturns are pretty standard for business. They employed lay offs, late seasonal hires, reduced operations, opened only on weekends, dropped room rates (for hotels), dropped vehicle rental rates (for car rental

165 agencies), diversified operations (for those businesses that have that option), or closed for the season. A tactic one manager mentioned could be employed in the future is sharing staff during open/close rotations: one business would open for a period of time using the same staff from a business that closes for part of the season. This tactic keeps experienced employees employed. Some businesses, such as small accommodations and skiing-oriented retail stores, may be more vulnerable than other businesses because they have few options to diversify. Fortunately, all the skiing-dependent businesses, except the ski resorts, have a summer component to their operations. If it became necessary, they could close or limit operations for the winter and focus on their summer business.

5.5 FINDING 4: FUTURE SNOW AND SKIING CONDITIONS

Future snow cover and skiing activities in the parks may be less than ideal compared to current conditions (in 2006), but managers still believe that skiing may be possible with snowmaking capability given the climate model projections for the 2020s and 2050s (answers research questions 3 and 4).

More than three quarters of the managers’ responses suggested that the changing snow conditions from climate change would have anywhere from minimal negative effects to major negative effects on skiing. These same managers felt that skiing in the 2020s and 2050s still ought to be possible with enhanced snowmaking capability. The managers place a lot of faith in the ability of snowmaking technology to provide snow where and when it is needed and to extend the ski season. The ski resorts are the first tourism business sector in the parks to notice the early effects of climate change. Ski resort managers are on the front lines dealing with the effects of climate change on snow cover and shifting vegetation cover on the slopes. Two resort operators specifically identified examples of how the vegetation cover in the alpine zone is beginning to encroach on the slopes and alpine meadows (Dave Gibson and John X, pers. comm., 2006). All four resort managers are noticing measurable changes in the inter-annual reliable snow cover depth and mean annual winter temperatures. The biggest change the ski

166 resort operators identified was the earlier date of the start of spring melt at low elevations. John X (pers. comm., 2006) indicated the lower ski out trail at one resort now needs to supplement snow cover with snowmaking in the early spring. Even with these apparent changes, the ski resort managers are optimistic that there will still be sufficient natural snow cover, possibly supplemented with artificial snow, to permit skiing in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s.

5.6 FINDING 5: FUTURE BUSINESS VULNERABILITIES

Future socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks from the effects of a changing climate on snow cover and temperatures at ski resorts may be more pronounced in the 2020s and 2050s than what occurs today. The effects ought to be mitigated to some degree with snowmaking capability, which may permit the ski resorts and other ski tourism businesses to continue being viable operations, all other factors held constant (answers research question 4).

All the skiing-dependent managers are optimistic that skiing in the parks will continue unabated well into the middle of the century and beyond. Even though they recognize climate change will present operational challenges and may have a negative impact on snow cover and shorten the length of the ski season, they feel that with snowmaking the ski resorts ought to be able to sustain a full, but shorter, ski season by the 2050s. Given that sense of optimism and confidence, they feel their businesses may not be as socio-economically vulnerable to the effects of climate change as they first thought. None of the skiing-dependent business managers, even the managers at the ski resorts, are particularly concerned at this moment about the possible long-term socio- economic effects that may emerge from a changing climate. None of the businesses have considered proactively developing or implementing strategies or tactics for their business to prepare for or cope with socio-economic impacts because the effects may not be felt until later in the next decade. Even those managers who demonstrated having a well-rounded understanding about the effects of climate change have not taken any steps to proactively prepare for a possible change to business in the 2020s and 2050s.

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The managers are accustomed to coping with abrupt socio-economic changes from shifting market forces and the volatile economy. That type of volatile operating environment forces managers to be ever-vigilant and reactive to changing trends. Managers felt that the socio-economic changes that may occur from changing snow cover and extreme temperature swings would occur over the long-term rather than abruptly. That means the effects of climate change would only become a problem for them if the climatic conditions occurred abruptly or persisted for an extended period of time (i.e., many years in a row). Eight of the managers suggested that because of the current flexibility and spontaneity of their businesses, they would try to maintain winter business as usual and ride out the low points by relying on summer profits as a counterbalance. Other managers felt if poor skiing conditions persisted for many years, defensive measures would need to be taken to protect the business. They suggested it may be difficult for the winter business to survive for any extended period of time and that bankruptcy, closure or sale of the business may have to be considered. They would shorten their winter operating season and reduce staff accordingly and ride out the few winter months. Most speculated that as long as there is skiing, skiers will come and they would maintain business for as long as economically feasible. Half the managers commented that because of the long timeframe involved (i.e., 2050s), any answer they could provide would be moot because they do not expect to be in business that long. Managers’ responses to what socio-economic conditions may be like for their business in climate scenario 2020 (the 2020s), the majority felt there would be little if any change to their business by the 2020s. But, they said, if conditions get worse they may be forced to shift into a survival mode, relying on tactics learned from past economic events. That means reducing winter business operations and extending summer operations to compensate for the loss winter business. They would diversify or re-focus to non-skiing products and target a different market segment. A quarter of managers suggested that if business became so bad (i.e., few skiers, limited snow cover or too short a ski season) by the 2020s, they would consider closing the business for the five winter months. Managers had similar responses about socio-economic conditions for their businesses in climate scenario 2050 (the 2050s). Managers suggested that the socio-

168 economic picture for scenario 2050 may be a considerably different picture for the 2020s. Every tactic they said they would employ in the 2020s they would also employ in the 2050s. Five of the managers felt that by the 2050s the skiing market may be a completely different picture from today. They were uncertain about what may happen saying it could be much worse than expected or it could be the complete opposite. Sandy Best (pers. comm., 2006) felt that since there could still be good skiing conditions with supplemental snowmaking, the market share between the 2020s and 2050s could shift in favour of the ski resorts in the parks as other low elevation ski resorts elsewhere in North America, Australia and Europe close down forcing skiers to search further afield for skiing opportunities. The climate models suggest that skiing may still be possible in the parks, even with a shorter ski season. The future may be friendly for those businesses that are adaptable to change; it may not be so friendly for businesses that cannot change to meet the new paradigm. Ski tourism businesses in the parks have a long history of adapting to abrupt socio-economic change. For some managers, it should not be too difficult for the skiing- dependent businesses to adapt to the slow pace of socio-economic change associated with climate change. Hopefully, new managers in the years to come will benefit from the experiences learned by more senior managers so that history does not need to repeat itself. For the ski resorts, future advances in snowmaking technology may be the single most important adaptation measure they can implement to counter the effects of a warming climate. Future technology must be more efficient and able to operate at higher elevations than today, if a water supply exists. A lot is riding on ski resorts’ ability to sustain viable operations well into the 2050s. Other managers suggest they will have to do more marketing than they do today and target non-skiers who want to enjoy longer shoulder season activities, such as hiking, birding, canoeing, cycling and nature walks. Managers in the accommodation sector suggest they need to create more reasons for people to want to come to the parks in the winter, such as holding hockey tournaments, conferences, meetings and corporate retreats. Several of the larger hotels have already developed conference centres and spas as an alternative to depending on skiers.

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One practice followed by younger or mid-career managers is to draw on past experiences learned by older managers so the newer managers can apply what they learn about the past in the future. Experience is great, but sometimes new ideas are needed to supplement tried and true practices from the past. The diffusion or spread of innovative ideas and practices helps business grow and evolve (J. Hall, pers. comm., 2007). The diffusion of innovation is achieved mainly through managers’ willingness to share what they have learned from ski organizations, attendance at trade shows, conferences and industry groups and from sales representatives. With a few exceptions, managers of big and small businesses learn most from each other (D. Roberts, pers. comm., 2006). They watch closely or learn what others or their competition is doing and, if the practice is working, follow the example. In small communities like Banff and Jasper, there are few secrets and innovative practices and ideas spread quickly. Managers in hotels, bus companies, ski resorts, vehicle rental agencies seem open to sharing best practices with each other, either formally through trade organizations or informally through personal friendships. The single sector that seems to be more secretive and competitive than the others, which increases their potential vulnerability, is the skiing retail sector (i.e., ski shops and skiing retail clothing). One manager suggests the ski retail sector is over populated and the competition is fierce between corporate (i.e., chain) and single or family operated businesses. The corporate stores may benefit from the structure and marketing power of the brand name, but they may not be as flexible and spontaneous as the small businesses when the economy takes a turn for the worse. One business manager suggested he can turn his ski retail business on a dime, and he does by converting to a clothing shop during the summer. There seems to be a spirit of collaboration and collegiality among most business managers in the parks. They all are members of the tourism agencies or chamber of commerce. The tension of competition is less pronounced, particularly when two or more businesses willingly collaborate with the marketing agency to advertise in the same newspaper ad. There is an attitude among most managers that we are all in the tourism game together, so we might as well get alone. That attitude appears to exist within both Banff and Jasper, but not necessarily between the two towns.

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The accommodation sector in the parks also seem to be open to the idea of sharing innovative information about tourism products and best practices to help sustain business. The accommodation operators are members of the hotel/motel association, the chamber of commerce and/or the tourism bureaus. They meet frequently and sharing knowledge about the industry and things that affect the industry. As one manager said, there are very few secrets in the business environments of Banff and Jasper. The socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks may be more pronounced and challenging going into the 2020s and 2050s than what they experience today, but the businesses appear, from past experience with downturns in the economy, to have the resilience and adaptive capacity to fend off the effects to remain viable enterprises. My interpretation is that the skiing-dependent businesses in the parks are no more socio-economically vulnerable in the 2020s than they are today. The degree of socio-economic vulnerability by the 2050s may depend whether or not the ski resorts will be able to sustain operations with the aid of snowmaking. If so, the ski resorts will likely continue being viable operations. If the ski resorts are viable and attract an increasing market share, then the other skiing-dependent business, all other factors remaining constant, should also be less vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

5.7 SUMMARY OF ANSWERS TO RESEARCH QUESTIONS

Table 5.2 summarizes the answers to the four research questions.

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TABLE 5.2: Answers to the research questions

Research questions Answers How do the four ski resorts in the parks compare The four ski resorts ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 7th best of the with the other 20 regional ski resorts in the 24 regional ski resorts based on the 14 geographical Canadian Cordillera when each is judged and factors. rated against 14 topographic, climatic and geographic factors common to each resort? How may snow cover, temperature conditions and There ought to be good snow conditions with ski season length suitable for skiing at the four ski snowmaking and a slightly shorter ski season at lower resorts in the parks today change in the 2020s and elevations: 2050s? • The models project slightly less natural snow cover at 1,600 m and nearly the same snow cover at 2,600 m in scenario 2020 • The models project significantly less natural snow at 1,600 m and considerably less snow at 2,600 m in scenario 2050 • The models project slightly less ski season at 1,600 m and virtually no change at 2,600 m with snowmaking in the 2020s • The models project moderately less ski season at 1,600 m and no change at 2,600 m with snowmaking in the 2050s What level of awareness and foresight do Managers recognize their business in linked to the ski managers of skiing-dependent businesses have resorts, but half have little awareness about the effects about the potential physical changes that climate climate change may have on snow cover and temperature change may cause at ski resorts and the socio- conditions: economic effects that may cause to other skiing- • Socio-economic effects from climate change may dependent businesses in the parks in the 2020s occur slowly rather than abruptly and 2050s? • Managers have experience dealing with abrupt socio-economic effects in the market place and should be able to accommodate changes from climate change • Managers felt skiing in 2020s should not be affected • Managers felt skiing in 2050s could be more challenging for ski resorts and they may have to take countermeasures to protect the business • Other ski tourism businesses may not be impacted in 2020s with slightly more impacts in the 2050s What may be the socio-economic vulnerability of Businesses may be less socio-economically vulnerable skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper than expected to climate change because ski resorts National Parks to the potential impacts of climate ought to continue being viable operations with change on snow cover, temperatures and season snowmaking, and they ought to attract more market length at the four ski resorts in the 2020s and share to the parks in both 2020s and 2050s: 2050s? • Snow supplemented by snowmaking will increase snow cover and extend the season • Other ski resorts likely to close; skiers will travel to other remaining resorts, including the parks • Ski tourism businesses will benefit from more skiers without having to take proactive measures of their own

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5.8 SUMMARY

My endeavour in interpreting the five findings is to answer the research questions and bring some sense of understanding to the viability and socio-economic vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s. I plan to share my findings with the managers I interviewed and, if invited, with members of Banff Lake Louise Tourism Bureau, Banff and Jasper Hotel/Motel Associations, and Jasper Chamber of Commerce. This sharing of my knowledge may help to increase awareness and start a process of capacity building for the managers. The findings from the interviews helped me to infer which of the skiing-dependent business sectors may be more vulnerable than the others to the long-term socio-economic effects of climate change. If the effects of a changing climate turn out to be more negative than positive for the parks, then the ski tourism business sectors likely to be impacted most may be the ski resorts, ski sales/rental shops, ski clothing shops and small accommodation businesses. These businesses have few options to diversify their winter operations to survive a decline in skiing. For example, a small hotel with no option to add meeting rooms or a spa is limited to just renting rooms. If the hotel cannot rent rooms because of a lack of skiers and other visitors, then the hotel’s management may find it more strategic to close down for the winter, as many small accommodation businesses do and did in the past in Banff and Jasper. If the effect of climate change is actually more positive for the businesses in the parks, then potentially all ski tourism businesses will benefit from an increase in the number of skiers coming to the ski resorts. The mid-sized and larger skiing-dependent businesses have greater options to diversify tourism products. For example, the large hotels offer conference and meeting rooms and a couple, such as the Banff Springs Hotel and Post Hotel, have opened spas in reaction to the market rather than to the potential effects of climate change. Overall, skiing-dependent businesses in the parks ought to remain viable and less vulnerable than other ski resort areas, all other factors held constant, in the 2020s. Businesses will likely encounter greater operating challenges, but ought to still be less vulnerable than other ski resort area, all other factors held constant, in the 2050s.

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CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

6.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter provides my conclusions from the findings and recommendations to skiing-dependent business and Parks Canada (see Figure 6.1). I also include my conclusions derived for findings 1 and 2: the future prospects of skiing in Banff and Jasper National Parks. The conclusions for findings 3, 4 and 5 address: current business vulnerability; future snow and skiing conditions; and future business vulnerabilities. This chapter is structured into: 1) primary conclusion; 2) conclusions for each finding; and 4) recommendations.

FIGURE 6.1: Stages to derive the conclusions and recommendations

CONCLUSIONS ABOUT FUTURE SOCIO-ECONOMIC Regional ski FINDINGS RESEARCH OF SKIING VULNERABILITY RECOMMENDATIONS resorts and QUESTIONS IN BANFF OF BUSINESS GFI 1 Climate 2 1 - Skiing-dependent models 3 2 businesses 4 3 - Parks Canada Interviews 5 4 - Future research

Economic importance

6.2 PRIMARY CONCLUSION

The primary conclusion I reached from an interpretation across my five findings is that the skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks are less likely rather than more likely to be socio-economically vulnerable in the 2020s and 2050s to the long-terms effects of climate change on snow cover and temperature conditions, all other factors held constant. The reduced vulnerability may not be as a direct result of anything substantive (i.e., beyond normal business practices) the businesses themselves have undertaken to do proactively to mitigate the socio-economic effects of climate change. Rather, the reduced vulnerability may be related more directly to the mitigative measures and geographical advantages found at or associated with the ski resorts in the parks. If skiing-dependent businesses are vulnerable to anything in the 2020s to 2050s, it may be

174 from the potential of over-popularity and overcrowding that may occur as skiers from other parts of the region, elsewhere in Canada and foreign countries come to ski in the parks. My conclusion addresses and answers research question 4 – the primary research question.

6.3 CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE OF SKIING IN BANFF AND JASPER

To arrive at my primary conclusion about the future of skiing in Banff and Jasper, I first had to determine conclusions for each finding and then synthesize them into the primary conclusion. The conclusion I draw from my interpretation of finding 1 (see Table 6.1) is that based on the results of the GFI the four ski resorts in the parks may be in full operation by the 2050s. The ski resorts may have to continue relying on snowmaking to supplement natural snow cover and to extend the ski season. The GFI suggests the ski resorts in the parks enjoy geographic advantages that other resorts may not. The situation may be that the geographic advantages could, in the 2050s, help the ski resorts endure and buffer the warming effects of climate change, while other resorts in the Cordillera may not be able to sustain a viable winter operation.

TABLE 6.1: Conclusion for finding 1 – Geographical Factors Index

Findings Interpretations Conclusions “If I find this…” “Then I think this “Therefore I conclude, or what I know to be means…” true is…” Finding 1: The four ski resorts have The four resorts are among as few as 10 ski The geographical the topographic, climatic resorts still able to offer a high quality skiing factors index and geographic attributes experience in the Canadian Cordillera in the (GFI) ranked the that may allow the resorts 2050s four ski resorts in to buffer or delay for the parks as 1st, several years the growing The quality of the skiing experience at the four 2nd, 3rd and 7th best effects of a warming resorts by the 2050s may be such that the of 24 regional climate on snow cover conditions may attract more regional and resorts when rated and temperature destination skiers to the parks at a time when against 14 conditions other ski resorts close or limit operations because topographic, of a lack of good skiing conditions climatic and geographic Skiing-dependent businesses in the parks may parameters continue to benefit from the success of the ski common to all 24 resorts because of the symbiotic relationship that resorts. exists between ski tourism businesses

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The conclusion I draw from an interpretation of finding 2 (see Table 6.2) is that skiing conditions in 2020 will continue to be high quality, but likely less high quality in the 2050s. My conclusion is based on climate models that project that there may potentially be insufficient reliable natural snow cover by the 2050s at both high (2,600 m) and lower elevations (1,600 m) unless snowmaking is able to maintain snow cover and the length of the ski season. Continued high quality snow conditions in the parks may attract increased numbers of skiers from elsewhere in Canada, Europe, Japan U.K., and U.S.

TABLE 6.2: Conclusion for finding 2 – climate model projections for Banff

Findings Interpretations Conclusions “If I find this…” “Then I think this “Therefore I conclude, or what I know to be true means…” is…” Finding 2: There will likely be less By the 2020s there will likely still be sufficient Climate model natural snow cover at natural snow cover at high elevation (2,600 m) and scenarios 2020 and 1,600 m, but still at lower elevation (1,600 m) supplemented with 2050 project a sufficient at all snowmaking for all four ski resorts in the parks and shorter ski season elevations for skiing in others in the Cordillera to be viable operations in Banff for the the 2020s 2020s and 2050s Between the 2020s and 2050s, snow cover at low from less natural There will be even less elevations will likely need to be supplemented with snow cover at natural snow cover at snowmaking technology for safe skiing and to 1,600 m and 2,600 all elevations in the lengthen the ski season m. 2050s, resulting in a much shorter ski season By the 2050s snowmaking at all elevations (1,600 that may only be m and 2,600 m) will likely be required to improved by supplement limited natural snow cover and to snowmaking at all lengthen the ski season elevations Continued high quality snow conditions in the parks may attract increased numbers of skiers from elsewhere in Canada, Europe, Japan U.K., and U.S.

Findings 1 and 2 triangulate well to infer that high quality skiing in the parks between the 2020s and 2050s will likely continue to exist. Part of the conclusion to finding 2 is premised on the resorts’ ability to continue making snow. If there is insufficient supply of or access to water to allow more snowmaking, the ski resorts may not be able to reach their minimum operating snow depth during some years in the future. That will cause negative impacts for the ski resorts and, ultimately, other ski tourism businesses.

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6.4 VULNERABILITY OF SKIING-DEPENDENT BUSINESSES

To arrive at my conclusion about the vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks, I had to draw on individual conclusions from findings 3, 4 and 5. My conclusion from finding 3 (see Table 6.3) is that the current effect of climate change on skiing- dependent businesses is not an issue for the managers, and the socio-economic effects on businesses may not be noticeable by the 2020s. By the 2050s, things change for the ski resorts and, potentially, for other skiing- dependent businesses. The physical and socio-economic effects may be more problematic at the ski resorts, particularly if snowmaking is limited. The socio-economic effects may be shifting more toward positive than negative effects on businesses by the 2050s as more skiers come to the parks.

TABLE 6.3: Conclusions for finding 3

Findings Interpretations Conclusions “If I find this…” “Then I think this “Therefore I conclude, or what I know to be means…” true is…” Finding 3: The effects of climate Socio-economic effects of climate change will Current socio- change are a long way off not likely be an operational issue for skiing- economic (2020s and 2050s) and dependent businesses by the 2020s, but may vulnerability of managers are not likely be a concern needing addressing by the skiing-dependent currently aware of or not 2050s if snowmaking is limited businesses from concerned about the the effects of a climate change issue The long-term effects of climate change on changing climate business are not currently a top-of-mind concern on snow cover and Managers are aware of or priority for managers today or likely to be for temperatures is the link between their the foreseeable future because managers are low and winter business and the focused on dealing with short-term and day-to- manageable operation of the ski day operational issues relative to what resorts may be the Managers do not need to incorporate mitigation situation in the Managers recognize that strategies or tactics into their current business 2020s and 2050s whatever impacts strategy and planning processes to address socio- negatively or positively economic changes from a changing climate on the ski resorts, climate change or otherwise, also Managers will need to become better informed in impacts on their the next decade about the potential socio- businesses economic effects of climate change on their business

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Another conclusion drawn from finding 3 is that the managers do not need to react now or in the next 5 to 10 years to the long-term effects of climate change on their businesses. They have the adaptive capacity to confront major shifting market forces and abrupt economic downturns, such as in 2008 – 2010. The managers ought to be able to cope with socio-economic adjustments generated from the effects of climate change. The conclusion I draw from the interpretation of finding 4 (see Table 6.4) is that managers are aware that the potential quality of future snow cover and skiing activities may be less than current conditions (in 2010), but they believe the quality of skiing may be better than at other ski resorts in the region. The vast majority of managers know their winter business is directly linked to the operation of the ski resorts and the presence of skiers. They anticipate the snow conditions will continue to allow a quality skiing experience, because they recognize that whatever factors affects ski resorts affect their businesses too.

TABLE 6.4: Conclusions for finding 4

Finding Interpretations Conclusions “If I find this…” “Then I think this “Therefore I conclude, or what I know to be means…” true is…” Finding 4: Managers recognize that Skiing conditions and ski season length may be Future snow cover climate change may less than currently exists and managers are aware and skiing impact on snow and that less high quality snow cover and warmer activities may be skiing activities, but as temperatures may impact the skiing experience, less than current little they know about the ski resorts and the socio-economics of their conditions (in issue they recognize their businesses 2010), but quality winter business depends skiing may be on the success of the ski possible given the resorts projections for the 2020s and 2050s

The conclusion I draw from finding 5 (see Table 6.5) is that future vulnerability of skiing-dependent businesses, based solely on the effects of a changing climate on snow cover and temperatures at ski resorts, may be more in the 2020s and 2050s than the vulnerability businesses experience today. When vulnerability is assessed on socio-economics, however, the vulnerability may be less because the ski resorts may capture more market share than they currently have. The factor that changes the level of vulnerability is not only the location of the ski resorts, but also the ability to supplement natural snow cover with snowmaking capability.

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TABLE 6.5: Conclusion for finding 5

Finding Interpretations Conclusions “If I find this…” “Then I think this “Therefore I conclude, or what I know to be means…” true is…” Finding 5: The socio-economic Climate change will likely impact snow cover Future effects of climate change and the duration of the ski season, but with vulnerability of may take more than a snowmaking some of the effects may be businesses from a decade to become evident mitigated to provide good skiing conditions and a changing climate to most skiing-dependent viable skiing industry on snow cover at businesses ski resorts may be Ski tourism businesses will be less socio- more pronounced The effects of climate economically vulnerable than the businesses at in the 2020s and change will be slow other ski resorts because as ski resorts elsewhere 2050s than what enough that businesses close from the effects of climate change, skiers occurs today. The ought to be able to may travel to the remaining resorts, including the effects may be mitigate the effects parks, thus bringing greater market share to the mitigated by without difficulty resorts and associated businesses. making snow cover

6.5 RECOMMENDATIONS

My recommendations are aimed at: 1) the owners and managers of ski resorts; 2) managers of other skiing-dependent businesses; and 3) Parks Canada officials. Figure 6.1 illustrates the conceptual framework I followed to develop my recommendations.

6.5.1 Recommendations for ski resorts

I recommend that ski resort operators continue to:

1. Formally document the physical changes to precipitation and temperatures they are detecting and that may be attributed to a changing climate. 2. Expand their climate monitoring station network (i.e., more locations and elevations) and track and evaluate the annual climate changes and trends to learn what and how things are changing over the next 20 to 50 years. 3. Expand a streamflow monitoring program to establish long-term, four-season discharge patterns for any watercourse that may be identified as a current or

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potential source of water for snowmaking during the early winter and early spring timeframes. 4. Expand existing snowmaking systems to allow the ski resorts to make early and late season snow cover on lower and middle-elevation slopes to supplement natural snow cover. 5. Incorporate into short-term operational plans and long-term strategic plans tactics that may be employed on short notice against the potential physical and socio- economic effects of climate change that are starting to appear in ski resort operations. 6. Take every opportunity to share information with other skiing-dependent businesses through the Hotel/Motel Association and Banff Lake Louise Tourism about what the physical and socio-economic effects climate change may have on the ski resort.

6.5.2 Recommendations for other skiing-dependent businesses

I recommend that skiing-dependent business owners/managers continue to:

1. Learn more about the potential effects of climate change on snow cover and temperatures as they affect ski resorts, and from that learn how these effects may change the operability of a ski resort and what the socio-economics effects may result for skiing-dependent businesses. 2. Learn what the socio-economic effects may be on their business should the ski resorts no longer operate or attract skiers; and examine the possibility that the opposite could occur in the 2020s and 2050s. 3. Develop a business strategy to identify operational tactics that builds capacity to employ in the future should winter business decline or increase. 4. Develop a means to identify early potential threats and opportunities for their business, whether that is a formal business plan or simply a SWOT64 analysis.

64 SWOT: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to a business.

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6.5.3 Recommendations for Parks Canada

My recommendations to Parks Canada officials are to continue to:

1. Work with the ski resort management to help them understand the effects of climate change on the environment, and help them to build capacity at the ski resorts to cope with the growing effects of climate change on snow cover. 2. Allow on-hill snowmaking capability at lower ski slope elevations with appropriate environmental assessments. 3. Investigate with the ski resort management the potential for snowmaking at higher elevations. 4. Measure and monitor year-round streamflow and aquatic systems in watercourses near ski resorts that are or could be used as a water supply for snowmaking.

6.6 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH

My recommendations for further research are:

1. Researchers consider taking my research to the next step by constructing substantive theory. 2. Researchers consider conducting similar studies for a broader ski region than just Banff and Jasper National Parks, such as Quebec or Ontario, Colorado, etc., to see if their findings replicate or refute my findings. 3. A broader scale study of the 24 ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera, possibly using other variables than geographical factors, such as economic variables, may present other interesting findings. 4. Engage local media into researching and presenting a well balanced report to help inform/educate/build capacity among tourism businesses, government officials and tourism agencies about the effects of climate change on the environment and the collateral impacts on the socio-economic on business. 5. Parks Canada increase the research efforts to identify and monitor the growing effects of a changing climate on the natural environment in the parks; and add

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greater emphasis about the effects of climate change to the park management planning process. 6. Conduct a case study that identifies the economic impacts on individual skiing- dependent businesses to determine the degree of financial effects likely to have an impact on skiing-dependent businesses in the future. 7. Conduct an economic assessment to identify the ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera that may either benefit or suffer from the effects of climate change and determine what strategies and tactics the ski resort ought to follow to sustain operations in the future.

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APPENDIX A

Representatives, organizations and businesses interviewed.

GOVERNMENT OR MARKETING INTERVIEWEE Parks Canada (plus two anonymous) Bill Fisher Ron Hooper J. Roulet Alberta Environment Harry Archibald Alberta Economic Development anonymous Town of Banff Mayor John Stutz Robert Earl Town of Jasper Mayor Richard Ireland G. Krefting Travel Alberta Derek Coke-Kerr Klaus Roth Ski Big3, Banff Ladd Snowsell BANFF BUSINESSES Abominable Ski Shop, Banff Kevin Hann Banff Avenue Inn, Banff Sandy Best Banff Mountain Wear, Banff Pat Gillespie Banff Park Lodge, Banff Frank Denouden Fairmont Banff Springs Hotel, Banff David Roberts Anonymous Banff Springs Ski & Ride, Banff Rebecca Johnson Brewster Bus Line, Banff Mike Dove Budget Rent A Car, Banff Al Zizac Banff Lodgings, Banff Sean O’Farrell Douglas Fir Resort, Banff Andre Fabbri High Country Inn, Banff Ron Bateman International Hotel, Banff Fern Marquez Mountain Magic, Banff Doug Godfrey Rocky Mountain Resort, Banff Vickie Smith Rocky Mountaineer/Gray Line, Banff Martin Bean Sport Chek, Banff Andy Tilley Unlimited Skate & Snow, Banff David Carlson JASPER BUSINESSES Astoria, Jasper George Andrews Free Wheel Cycle, Jasper Wendy Hall Jasper Park Lodge, Jasper Amanda Robinson Jasper Sport and Tackle, Jasper Mike Merilovich Marmot Basin, Jasper Dave Gibson Whistler’s Inn, Jasper Vanessa Hugie LAKE LOUISE BUSINESSES Chateau Lake Louise, Lake Louise David Bayne Post Hotel, Lake Louise George Schwarz Wilson Sports, Lake Louise Bill Keeling

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APPENDIX B

Survey questions for ski resorts and skiing-dependent businesses

Name: Business:

1. How do you/company plan for the future?

2. How closely linked do you feel your business is to the presence of skiers using the ski hills in the parks?

3. How has your company coped with poor ski seasons or socio-economic downturns in the past decade?

4. What is your current awareness about the potential long-term effects climate change may have on snow and temperature conditions that could affect skiing in the parks?

5. How do you think the potential changes in snow and temperature conditions may affect ski hills and skiing in general?

6. What socio-economic effects do you foresee impacting your business if poor snow conditions persist or become the norm in the future?

Scenario 1 7. In what way could changes to snow and temperature conditions in scenario 1 (year 2020) from climate change affect the socio-economics of your business?

Scenario 2 8. In what way might changes to the snow and temperature conditions in scenario 2 (year 2050) from climate change affect the socio-economics of your business?

9. What, if any, adaptive measures, best practices or innovations have you considered or implemented to help sustain winter operations in the future?

10. What plans do you have to diversify or adapt strategies to maintain your winter operations in the face of potential challenges likely to be experienced by ski resorts in the parks over the next 50 years?

11. Do you share or adopt information or best practices about tourism products among members of your industry sector?

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APPENDIX C

Steps conducting face-to-face interviews.

• Limit the interviews to only those businesses in the parks that depend upon skiers and the operation of the ski resorts. For the purposes of my research, these businesses are: ski resorts, ski shuttle buses, lodging/accommodations, ski shops, ski/winter clothing retail shops and vehicle rentals. • Develop and refine a series of questions designed to answer two of the four research questions to be asked during the interviews. • Draft informed consent letter and obtain University of Calgary Conjoint Faculties Research Ethics Board (CFREB) approval to conduct interviews. • Search business and tourism websites and tourism promotional materials to create a contact list of skiing-dependent business managers in Jasper, Lake Louise and Banff. • Draft and mail or e-mail letters of invitation to these business contacts. • Set up an interview with those contacts who responded to my mail or e-mail letter of invitation. • Follow up as needed, 7 to 10 days later, with a phone call or e-mail to the contact who initially did not respond to determine whether the contact was willing to participate in the study, and if so set a date, time and location to hold a one-hour long interview. • Interview schedule established and confirmed by phone or e-mail with the prospective participants. • Conduct interviews in Calgary with Parks Canada and Travel Alberta between May 10 to 15, 2006; and conducted interviews with Alberta Environment and Alberta Economic Development – Tourism in Edmonton on May 16, 2006. • Travelled to Jasper, Lake Louise and Banff to conduct interviews from May 17 to July 7, 2006. Returned to Banff to conduct three additional interviews during the spring of 2007.

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• Reviewed with and had each interviewee sign the Informed Consent Form prior to start of each interview; signed forms are retained in secure storage. Each interviewee also was asked to sign the same form allowing the interview to be recorded. Interviewees were given the option to be identified or not in the study. • Interviews were recorded (if permitted) and field notes made of the responses to each of the questions plus any related discussion with each interviewee; I reviewed my field notes at the end of each day to determine what additional points could be made or questions asked of subsequent interviewees. No changes to the questions were made as a result of input. • Once I arrived in Jasper, Lake Louise and Banff I proceeded to identify skiing- dependent businesses not previously identified and approached each business to invite the senior manager of these businesses to participate in my study. I provided a copy of the letter of invitation with the details about the aim of the study. Interviews were set up and carried out with those newly identified businesses that agreed to participate. Each signed the Informed Consent Form. • Each interview was held in a reasonably quiet location at the interviewee’s business location. Any new information obtained during an interview was considered or incorporated into the line of questioning and dialogue for the next interviews without going off track of the interview process. This was how each interview informed subsequent interviews based on the principles of grounded theory. • The people who were invited to participate, but who did not respond to the invitation were visited again in person, sometimes three to four times, while I was still in Jasper, Lake Louise or Banff. If no response was received (i.e., they refuse to meet with me) or if the potential interviewees indicated that he/she was not interested in participating, then no further attempt was made to engage them. • The recordings of the interview were burned to several CDs each evening for safe and secure storage; and the interview field notes were stored in a secure file cabinet for further review, analysis and interpretation.

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APPENDIX D

Name of Researcher, Faculty, Department, Telephone & Email: David Reynolds, Ph.D. Candidate Faculty of Graduate Studies, Geography Department 403-241-0338, 403-874-5944(cell); e-mail: [email protected]

Supervisor: Dr. Dianne Draper, Professor, Head, Geography Department, 220-5584, [email protected]

Title of Project: Assessing the long-term effects of climate change on the socio-economic vulnerability and adaptability of skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks.

This consent form, a copy of which has been given to you, is only part of the process of informed consent. If you want more details about something mentioned here, or information not included here, you should feel free to ask. Please take the time to read this carefully and to understand any accompanying information.

The University of Calgary Conjoint Faculties Research Ethics Board has approved this research study.

Purpose of the Study:

You are requested to participate in a unique Doctoral (Ph.D-level) degree university study to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of skiing-dependent businesses (ski hills, accommodations, ski shops, buses/taxi and local car rentals) in Banff and Jasper National Parks to the potential socio-economic impacts resulting from the long-term effects of climate change on snow and temperature conditions. Changing snow conditions and temperatures may affect the socio-economic viability of ski hills and, in turn, the various businesses in the skiing supply chain.

The purpose of the project is to interview key skiing-dependent business managers in Banff and Jasper and key Federal, Provincial and Municipal government officials to assess how

200 vulnerable and adaptive skiing-dependent businesses may be to a changing climate, and how they plan to sustain business operations in the future in a potentially uncertain and changing socio-economic environment. You will be asked questions about how your company coped with major socio-economic and weather disruptions in the past. You will also be asked questions about how your current strategic and long-range business plans include or incorporate possible socio-economic changes resulting from future climate change impacts on snow conditions and temperatures. The result of this study will help to assess:

1) How aware the skiing-dependent business sector is to the potential long-term effects of climate change on the snow and temperature conditions, and how changes to snow and temperatures directly or indirectly influences the socio-economic operability and viability of skiing-dependent businesses; 2) How well prepared individual skiing-dependent businesses are to respond innovatively and/or adaptively to potential socio-economic changes anticipated in the parks over the next 25 to 50 years.

The study also will identify where awareness about the effects of climate change on the skiing-dependent business supply chain is weak and where short and long-range strategic planning, innovation and business practice gaps may exist. The results of this study will assist to identify where skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper are most vulnerable and at most economic risk from potential changes to skier visitation levels from changes in snow and temperature conditions. It is anticipated that the study will raise some early warning ‘red flags’ for some skiing-dependent businesses and government organizations about future socio-economic challenges facing these skiing-dependent businesses in the parks. The study also will identify where some businesses may need to prioritize, innovate or diversify their business product offerings to sustain operations and to prepare themselves to cope with the possible effects of changing snow and temperature conditions.

What Will I Be Asked To Do?

You will be asked to participate in a pre-arranged, one-hour face-to-face interview with the researcher in your office or a convenient and quiet location. The interview will be held sometime during the ‘shoulder season’ months of May and June or September and October 2006. Since your participation in this project is voluntary, anything you say during the interview will be held in the strictest of confidence. You are at liberty to withdraw from the project at any time. Data collected to the point of withdrawal will be retained and may be used in the project, unless you specify otherwise.

The questions you will be asked are to determine your awareness about the effects of climate change on your business. The questions also will explore what your business has done in the past to cope with major socio-economic disruptions, and what your business is doing today to prepare for possible changes to your business from an environmental jolt, such as climate change. The text of the interview questions will be provided to you in

201 advance, if you wish. These questions will be used as a guide for the interview. Assuming you give permission, your responses to the interview questions will be recorded, transcribed and kept strictly confidential.

You will be presented with two possible climate models “what if” scenarios (roughly equated to the years 2020 and 2050) that relate to how potential changes to natural snow and temperature conditions in the future may influence your business operations. Seasonal snowfall levels and temperature directly impact on ski hill operations, thus any possible changes to snowpack and temperatures may well affect the socio-economic environment of the entire skiing-dependent supply chain in the parks over the next 25 to 50 years. The answers to survey questions will help the researcher assess how the skiing-dependent supply chain businesses in the parks plan for the long term, and how potentially vulnerable and adaptive the sector is to a gradual reduction in seasonal snowpack that may decrease the number of skiers visiting the ski hills. The responses to the questions are expected to be qualitative rather than quantitative.

What Type of Personal Information Will Be Collected?

You will not be asked to provide any personal or financial information. Even your name and company name remain anonymous. On the other hand, you may wish to be identified in the write up of this research project. If that is the case, there are several options for you to consider if you decide to take part in this research project. You can choose all, some or none from the list below. Please put a check mark on the corresponding line(s) that grants me your permission to:

I grant permission to be audio taped (the preferred method of interviewing): Yes: ___ No: ___ You may quote me and use my name and the company name: Yes: ___ No: ___ I and the company wish to remain anonymous: Yes: ___ No: ___ My company wishes to remain anonymous, but you may refer to us by a pseudonym: Yes: ___ No: ___ The pseudonym I choose is: ______

Are there Risks or Benefits to me if I Participate?

There are no risks to you or your company from participating in this research project. The information gathered from you for this study will be kept strictly confidential (unless you agree otherwise) and the data will only appear in aggregated form.

A change (either positive or negative) in skiing conditions and on skier traffic may have a profound effect on the socio-economics of some particularly vulnerable businesses in the skiing-dependent supply chain. Thus, one benefit for you of participating in this research is you may become more aware of the possible changes to snow and temperature conditions

202 and the possible effects those changes may have on ski hill snow pack and, potentially, on your business. Being forewarned of the potential socio-economic effects will help businesses like yours to adapt strategies to diversify and innovate early to mitigate the impacts facing skiing-dependent businesses in the parks.

What Happens to the Information I Provide?

Be assured, no one but the researcher will be able to see or hear any of the answers to the interview questions. There will be no names on the survey or included in the recordings. Only if a participant has agreed to be identified by name or company name would there be any identification in the dissertation or future publications. The aggregated information by sub sector businesses will be reviewed by the graduate supervisory committee and used for any publication of results. The surveys are kept in a locked storage cabinet at the researcher’s residence, and the transcriptions and recordings are stored on the researcher’s private computer. The data will be retained for future journal publications and possible additional research. As mentioned previously, if a project participant chooses to withdraw from the research project, the participant may do so at any time. The data gathered to that point will be retained and included in the research, unless specified otherwise.

Signatures (written consent)

Your signature on this form indicates that:

1) You understand to your satisfaction the information I have provided to you about this project and your participation in it, and

2) You agree to participate as a research subject.

In no way does this waive your legal rights nor release the investigator or The University of Calgary from their legal and professional responsibilities. You are free to withdraw from this research project at any time. You should feel free to ask for clarification or new information about the project throughout your participation.

Participant’s Name: (please print) ______

Participant’s Signature ______Date: ______

Researcher’s Name: David Reynolds

Researcher’s Signature: ______Date: ______

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Questions/Concerns

If you have any further questions or want clarification regarding this research and/or your participation, please contact:

Mr. David Reynolds Faculty of Graduate Studies, Geography Department Phone: 403-241-0338 or 403-874-5944; Fax: 403-241-1103; E-mail: [email protected]

Alternatively, you can contact the research Supervisor Dr. Dianne Draper, Geography Department Phone: 403-220-5584; E-mail: [email protected]

If you have any concerns about the way you’ve been treated as a participant, please contact Bonnie Scherrer in the Research Services Office, University of Calgary at (403) 220-3782; email [email protected].

A copy of this consent form has been given to you to keep for your records and reference. The investigator has also kept a copy of the consent form.