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RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State

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RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State 2018 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 5, 2018 2018 Early Draft Scouting/Fantasy Valuation: RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State *Our QB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. The question I have received most often in the early 2018 NFL Draft process, as it pertains to Dynasty- Fantasy Rookie Drafts is “How good is Saquon Barkley?” Last summer, I did a preview scouting report on Barkley…watched a little tape, input what we performance numbers we had, estimated his measurables (I’ll post that 2017 report below this piece if you’d like to look at). I did a similar drive-by scouting on Barkley again (pre-NFL Combine) recently. What I saw in 2018 is the same as I saw in 2017… I’m just going to share my notes/thoughts in a random bullet point format… -- I always see Doug Martin when I watch him run. Very fast feet, short steps. Can really hit the jets and isn’t great between the tackles as a physical runner but his quick feet allow him to get by. Not as tough as Martin up the middle, but is a fast, choppy, high-effort 217-222 pound runner who can dodge some bullets in congestion. You might scoff at Martin as a comparison, but a couple years ago he made a run at the league rushing title…doing so on a terrible offense that couldn’t block. When Martin was clean, sober and at his best…he was really good in the NFL. -- Barkley’s speed and size measurement results at the NFL Combine are CRITICAL. If he comes in at a 4.45 40-time and 218-pounds, people will feel pretty good. If he comes in at 4.35 and 220+ pounds, people will, and should, lose their minds. If he comes in at 4.55…doubts will creep in, but the football establishment is already all-in, so they’ll excuse it away. -- When I watch the tape of Barkley, I’m never that impressed. I mean that from a – he’s being sold as an A+++, but I’m seeing a nice B+, maybe A- runner. I’m not radically different from the mainstream view of him but I have much more doubt. There is 0.0% doubt in the mainstream right now, so any slight hesitation from an analyst or fan will get you shouted down and declared a fool. I have some doubts that he’s an A+. -- I also know what happens when the entire NFL media monster piles onto one side… NFL teams follow suit and they will draft Barkley highly and build an entire offense around him; like lemmings. See: Melvin Gordon. College Football Metrics| 1 2018 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 5, 2018 Barkley is a much better prospect than Gordon was as a rookie for me at this point. Both NFL-worthy talents with debatable upsides and radically over-drafted (from a value standpoint)…I’m not burning a 1st-round pick on an RB in an era over great supply of RB talent right now. And in the era of the 2018 Super Bowl teams using RBBC approaches. I was more B+ on Ezekiel Elliott scouting too, and you probably think that’s a damning cross-defense of my scouting. I still maintain Elliott is a B+ talent. B+ in a great NFL situation, which gives him a production/fantasy push. For the NFL, I like Ezekiel over Saquon. For fantasy/PPR, as pure talents, I like Barkley because of his breakaway ability and potential more usage in the passing game. But given I know Ezekiel is on Dallas and Barkley is an unknown landing spot at this stage…I’d take the sure thing in Elliott for fantasy this very day. -- Barkley is going to make his money as a ‘big guy with speed’ type of weapon. He can outrun defenders more than most guys who weigh around 220 +/- pounds. If Barkley has space to run, the defense will pay. If Barkley is expected to be a grind it out type of RB…not as likely to happen. Barkley is more finesse and speed than power. I would not be totally surprised if Barkley came in at 217-219 pounds versus 222-225 at the NFL Combine. He has the look of a slightly smaller RB to my eye…which flows with his style of running. Closer to Alvin Kamara looks/style than Ezekiel Elliott. -- When I watched Barkley versus Big Ten powers Ohio State and Michigan…I see a guy who is noticeably faster than the defensive players in the open field. I suspect he’s closer to a 4.40 than a 4.50 40-time, and if he comes in running in the 4.3s, I would not be shocked. When he gets loose, Barkley did well running the ball versus Big Ten powers -- but he was bottled up at the line of scrimmage a bunch too. Barkley tries to flee congestion up the middle more than plowing into it…and that may not serve him well in the pros. We’ll have to see his Combine numbers to theorize on that or not. I’m not sure Barkley will have great yards after contact in the NFL…I want to study more before I lock that in. -- Barkley had nice receiving numbers in college and I expected to see a way above-average, fluid receiver out of the backfield. My glimpses of watching his screen and flare pass catches were that he’s ‘fine/OK’ as a receiver, not a next-level receiver out of the backfield. Overall, I think Barkley is a legit NFL/FF prospect and I know he’s the dynasty rookie draft #1.01 today with a bullet. I know NFL teams are going to rollout the red carpet. Barkley makes sense as the #1.01 right now, but my question and probably a lot of your questions would be – “Is Barkley worth the #1.01? Should I trade up for him or should I trade my #1.01 and sell the hype?” Let me examine an answer to that question by looking over the NFL/FF right now. There is a glut of #1 RBs starting to pile up in fantasy, especially PPR. We just got Fournette-Kamara-Hunt-McCaffrey thrown College Football Metrics| 2 2018 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 5, 2018 into the system, with guys like Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook lurking…and Samaje Perine and D’Onta Foreman possibly. I’m going to go through the NFL team-by-team using a dynasty mindset, and list RBs I think are clearly better than Barkley/I’d rather have for FF today and also list the RBs who are about the same value for me right now. I think when you see the visual on this it will grab your attention/help you value Barkley (for PPR)… *Going through teams alphabetically and typing the RB names, so a random order list. Better than Barkley, clearly: David Johnson Joe Mixon Ezekiel Elliott Leonard Fournette Todd Gurley Alvin Kamara (because he’s used perfectly for FF/PPR) Le’Veon Bell Carlos Hyde (if healthy) About as good as Barkley: LeSean McCoy Jordan Howard D’Onta Foreman (but injury question) Kareem Hunt Melvin Gordon Mark Ingram Doug Martin (if he were clean) Derrick Henry/DeMarco Murray College Football Metrics| 3 2018 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT FEBRUARY 5, 2018 Samaje Perine Is the 8-12th best RB in the NFL/FF worth the #1.01 pick in a dynasty rookie draft? Probably not. I’d especially say it’s not when mainstream football people are valuing Barkley ahead of everyone but maybe Gurley and Bell-Johnson. I suspect if you had the 1.01 today, you could trade it for David Johnson straight up…if that gives you a valuation idea. People are whacko for rookies as it is…and the media has Barkley hyped so hard he’s going to be a crown jewel they’d all die for. I don’t think Barkley and Johnson exist on the same planet for talent and fantasy production. If you push Barkley as ‘in the upper group’ (in my lists above) then he’s worth the 1.01, at this stage. If you see Barkley as anywhere in the ‘about as good as Barkley’ group…you’re not using your 1.01 pick for all that it is worth most likely by taking Barkley. As of today, starting February 2018, with no Combine or NFL Draft landing data to work with -- I say Barkley is a B+ talent with A+ media hype and going into an unknown situation/NFL team/offense. He’s likely going to be an ‘A’ fantasy asset one way or the other (talent and/or volume)…but not as likely an A+, and I see opportunities to sell the A+ sizzle for a pretty big haul this offseason. We’ll lock all this in after the NFL Combine. NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State: From the summer of 2017… NFL Draft 2017 Scouting Report: RB Saquon Barkley, Penn State *Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available. *We use the term "Power RB" to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles-capable RBs from our "Speed RBs" group.
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