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Home , Cam Newton, Daunte Culpepper, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Tyler Lockett

1. KC Age: 25 • 6’3” • 220 lbs • Injury: 2 2019 Stats: Rank History: 4,031 Pass YD • 26 Pass TD • 5 INT • 6.4 AY@C • 218 Rush YD • 2 Rush TD 14 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 10 • Top 24 Finishes: 14 ’19 Preseason Rank: 1 Film Grades: ’19 Final Rank: 7 Arm Strength: A+ • Accuracy: B • Vision: B • Running: B+ • Situation: A • Sensitivity: ü ’20 Ranks Range: 1-3

Don’t take a in the first round.

The affable, lovable Patrick Mahomes—League MVP, champ—is standing right in front of you, waving his arms: Don’t take a quarterback in the first round! This is the bedrock assumption of nearly everything you’ll read in this publication so I’ll just get it out of the way right now: last year’s stats are not guarantees for this year’s stats. In 2019, I received dozens of questions about why, if I’m picking toward the end of the first round, shouldn’t I eschew all the uncertainty at RB and WR and lock in another 50-TD season from Mahomes?

Despite Kansas City’s long-awaited return to Halastown, you saw why. Everything has to go perfect for a QB to throw 50 TDs. It’s happened three times in league history and in their follow-up campaigns, , and Mahomes threw 39, 0 and 26. That doesn’t mean they’re bad. Hell, there are only 11 40-TD seasons in NFL history, and in not a single case did the QB even match his total the next year. Mahomes the athlete, the improviser, the arm…nothing changed. Even before he suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 7, he “only” had 15 TD passes, on pace for 34. Which is awesome! He’s so great! But he was never ever ever matching his ridiculous 2018 campaign because that’s not how this works.

He’s still my best at the position. He’s not superhuman; you saw his occasional limitations in the first three quarters of the Super Bowl, when the 49ers got pressure on him and his off-script vision and decision-making turned sour. When you fly by the seat of your pants so often, sometimes your tush gets exposed on national TV. But then came the fourth quarter. Sure, a blown coverage got open for a long momentum-changer, but on that play Mahomes stood in like a champ. And after that, just…there was no stopping him. When he’s feeling it, Mahomes is Prime with possibly a bigger arm and more mobility. He’s James Harden without the beard. He’s Freddy Krueger with nicer fingernails.

The only thing not to love about Mahomes (and probably the man I’m ranking #2 on my QB list) is his price. Listen, if you’re in a superflex league? Go for it. But in standard fantasy leagues you shouldn’t use a first-round pick on any QB, because to justify that cost, Mahomes must post another historic season. Otherwise, you’re clearly better off getting 85% of Mahomes eight rounds later. 2. BAL Age: 23 • 6’2” • 216 lbs • Injury: 0 2019 Stats: Rank History: 3,127 Pass YD • 36 Pass TD • 6 INT • 6.7 AY@C • 1,206 Rush YD • 7 Rush TD 15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 13 • Top 24 Finishes: 15 ’19 Preseason Rank: 15 Film Grades: ’19 Final Rank: 1 Arm Strength: A • Accuracy: C • Vision: C+ • Running: A+ • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üü ’20 Ranks Range: 1-7

He’s a baby! Lamar Jackson is coming off a fantasy MVP season at just 22 years old. (I don’t know your age, dear reader…maybe that doesn’t seem crazy-young to you. I promise that one day it will.) I understand the impulse to place him above Patrick Mahomes in the #1 spot among fantasy QBs for 2020. As Don DeLillo wrote in White Noise: “There are no amateurs in the world of children.”

Yeah, except, see—I still think part of Jackson’s game is still a bit amateurish. He’s still an average-at- best throwing quarterback. I know, I know, you’ll point to the scoreboard: 36 passing TDs. And don’t get me wrong: I’m not saying he’s bad and I’m not saying he can’t get even better. His wheels are unbelievable and they help keep an inordinate number of plays alive and put unprecedented pressure on defenses. But they also allow him to indulge in some bad habits. On the rare occasion that he hit bad patches in ’19, the leading culprit was Jackson’s tendency to make one read and then drop his head and start running around behind the line of scrimmage. His arm is plenty strong but he sometimes has trouble squeezing passes into tight coverage when his feet get in weird positions. Frankly, for folks who aren’t Ravens fans, watching Jackson struggle in a huge upset playoff loss was probably a welcome splash of cold water that helps us remember: when a player completely breaks the NFL at an incredibly tender age, usually the sailing doesn’t stay smooth forever. Take away some of Jackson’s wide-open big-strike TDs (including two in Week 1) and I can imagine a slightly more up-and-down year than ’19. I don’t think Jackson fits the profile of a perennial 30-plus-TD-pass quarterback.

Of course, I’m saving the best for last here. We’re already talking about one of the greatest runners in the history of the position. You sometimes hear sportsweasels prattle how “it’s like having a at quarterback!” and then you look around and they’re talking about Mitch Trubisky or something. Lamar Jackson is a stunning runner. His jump moves, his jab steps, his power, his acceleration, his long speed…what ’19 proved is that Jackson is such a transcendent runner that all he has to be is an adequate thrower. The Ravens are smart enough to build an offense around a ground game featuring Jackson and multiple strong RBs leading to play-action and lots of open receivers. Fine, take away 10 passing TDs and keep him in the low 3,000s in passing yards. If Jackson stays healthy—certainly a big if when you run it more than 11 times a game!—there’s almost no way he doesn’t get to, conservatively, 800 rushing yards. Baby or not, that gives the Jackson owner in your league a thrillingly safe floor. HARRIS’S RESEARCH PROJECT Just how ridiculous was Lamar Jackson’s running season in 2019?

You know he shattered the record for QB rushing yards in a season. You know his rush yardage total was higher than every running back in the league save five. And more generally you know he advanced the cause of running QB beyond where it’s ever gone before. But just look at the dang points:

Player Season Fantasy Points From Rushing Lamar Jackson 2019 158.6 2011 150.6 2014 120.9 Cam Newton 2012 120.1 Cam Newton 2015 119.6 Robert Griffin III 2012 119.5 2002 114.9 2002 113.7 Michael Vick 2010 113.6 Michael Vick 2006 109.8

Since 2000, no quarterback has scored more fantasy points with his feet. Do you realize that Cam Newton scored 14 (FOURTEEN!) rushing in ’11, and Jackson—whom you could argue might’ve been unlucky to only score seven in ’19—still produced more fantasy points on the ground? Even if we suspect Jackson’s passing numbers get worse, boy, if he’s healthy he’s gonna score on the ground.

3. HOU Age: 25 • 6’2” • 221 lbs • Injury: 9 2019 Stats: Rank History: 3,852 Pass YD • 26 Pass TD • 12 INT • 6.6 AY@C • 413 Rush YD • 7 Rush TD 15 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 9 • Top 24 Finishes: 13 ’19 Preseason Rank: 3 Film Grades: ’19 Final Rank: 4 Arm Strength: A- • Accuracy: B • Vision: B+ • Running: A • Situation: B- • Sensitivity: üü ’20 Ranks Range: 1-8

There’s a world where this goes fine. If you squint, you can understand what the Texans are thinking. Don’t commit long-term massive money to a wideout you’ve decided you don’t trust (DeAndre Hopkins). Spend a lot—in both draft picks and actual dollars—for someone you think is a franchise left tackle (). Replace departed skill-position pieces with veterans owed a lot of dough in ’20 but little in the future (David Johnson and ). Bill O’Brien now gets more crap than a bran muffin salesman, but maybe we’ll wake up in January and our buddy Brett Kollmann will be celebrating aboard that dumb steaming metal bull they have in the end zone.

The Chin Cleft’s credibility is 100% on the line in 2020. But Deshaun Watson’s isn’t. Some will argue that losing Hopkins is a deathblow to Watson’s immediate fantasy value, but I just don’t buy it. The Watson/Hopkins connection was incredible, but reviewing the film shows strong connections with other receivers, too: marvelous sideline leads, great post timing, delicate deep lofts. Watson just has a super arm and has begun to develop that Russell-Wilson-esque ability to scramble with intent to throw. There are plays from ’19 where I assume the dude making a lovely hands grab on the sidelines is Hopkins but instead it’s or Kenny Stills. And Cooks is a very good player. Plus if D.J. stirs the echoes, that could be another 500+ passing yards on easier stuff out of the backfield.

And of course Watson is another dude you can feel pretty sure will chip in at least 40 rushing yards or so per week because he’s great at it, even if in ’19 it felt a like he was a little more patient letting receivers get open before taking off. Plus as a runner his nose for the end zone is pretty sick. Remember that Week 1 score around the left edge against the Saints? Or the two in a huge road win over the Chiefs in Week 6, one on a scramble to the pylon, the other simply not allowing 260-pound Frank Clark to tackle him? Seven rushing TDs on 82 carries might not recur because that requires luck, but neither would I expect zero to be on the table. The guy’s simply growing into a complete quarterback: less hero ball, easier on the offensive line, more decisive on his reads. The newly reconfigured Texans may stumble, but Watson won’t.

4. RUSSELL WILSON SEA Age: 32 • 5’11” • 215 lbs • Injury: 0 2019 Stats: Rank History: 4,110 Pass YD • 31 Pass TD • 5 INT • 7.0 AY@C • 342 Rush YD • 3 Rush TD 16 Games • Top 12 Finishes: 7 • Top 24 Finishes: 15 ’19 Preseason Rank: 4 Film Grades: ’19 Final Rank: 3 Arm Strength: A • Accuracy: A- • Vision: B- • Running: A- • Situation: A- • Sensitivity: üü ’20 Ranks Range: 1-8

Remember when we had to endure the entire winter of ’19 “debating” whether Russell Wilson was an elite player? Ah, there’s nothing the Yacht Club loves more than two televised chuckleheads with more “dense” than “sense” taking sides on an issue that has no sides. We could’ve saved Doof & Doofier the trouble: Wilson’s personality may be terminally edgeless, but yes, paying him top QB money was wise.

If you listen to my podcast, you know Wilson’s one of my faves. He’s probably not a great bet to eclipse 500 rushing yards anymore. He plays on what passes for a “run-heavy” team in the modern NFL and so his throwing attempts will rarely be Jameisesque. (Or should that be Winstonian?) And the NFC West looks pretty stacked. That means Wilson foils the brigade of “experts” who are sure they have a “system”; why, without elite rushing yardage, elite pass attempts or an easy schedule, how could you ever consider him a top-five fantasy QB?

’Cuz he’s great! ’Cuz “run-heaviness” in today’s NFL is a belly laugh! ’Cuz he throws the prettiest deep ball in the land! I’ve loved drafting Russ the past few seasons precisely because so much paint-by- numbers analysis has surrounded him: you’ve been able to find extreme value while not-so-wise guys have chased new and unproven flavors at the position. Heck, Wilson entered ’19 with more uncertainty than this year: had retired, we weren’t sure Tyler Lockett was a #1 wideout and D.K. Metcalf was the subject of draft-day derision. Now the surrounding cast feels like it can only get stronger.

You know what you’re getting: improvisational play that’s nearly as good as Mahomes, in-pocket savvy on the level of Brady, arm strength on par with Rodgers, and an Instagram feed so corny Ralph Wiggum turns to the camera and goes, “Really?” If there’s a problem with Wilson in ’20, it’s that Doof & Doofier may have come finally come around. The market may finally catch up to him, and it’ll get tougher to plant a flag on his draft stock representing extreme value. If your default single-QB-league strategy is to wait on the position, unfortunately that might mean you’ll be waiting for someone else.