Persistence in the Official World Golf Rankings
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PERSISTENCE IN THE OFFICIAL WORLD GOLF RANKINGS A THESIS Presented to The Faculty of the Department of Economics and Business The Colorado College In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Bachelor of Arts By Mason Bergh December 2018 PERSISTENCE IN THE OFFICIAL WORLD GOLF RANKINGS Mason Bergh December 2018 Economics Abstract This paper builds on decades of hot hand effect research. Belief in persistent success or failure is common in sports despite a lack of statistical evidence supporting the phenomenon. Using weekly ranking data for 60 professional golfers around the world, this study deploys an ordinary least squares regression to analyze if persistent rank movement exists in the Official World Golf Rankings. This study hypothesizes that persistence does not exist outside of chance because significant evidence is needed to support the existence of streaks in golf ranks. Like previous studies, the results suggest that streaks do occur, but true statistical evidence to reject the hypothesis was not present. KEYWORDS: (Persistence, Hot hand, Official World Golf Rankings, Golf) JEL CODES: Z21, L83 ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Thank you to my family for the continuous love and support that they have shown me. Also, thank you to Neal Rappaport for his commitment and guidance throughout this process. iii ON MY HONOR, I HAVE NEITHER GIVEN NOR RECEIVED UNAUTHORIZED AID ON THIS THESIS Mason Bergh Signature iv TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS…………………………………………………………. iii 1 INTRODUCTION……………………………………………………………...... 1 2 LITERATURE REVIEW………………………………………………………… 3 2.1 Beginning of Streak Research………………………………………………... 4 2.2 Psychological Theories………………………………………………………. 6 2.3 Literature in Golf…………………………………………………………….. 8 3 THEORY……………………………………………………………………….... 12 3.1 Model………………………………………………………………………… 12 4 DATA……………………………………………………………………………. 14 5 RESULTS AND ANALYSIS……………………………………………………. 20 6 CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………………... 23 REFERENCES……………………………………………………………………….. 25 APPENDIX………………………………………………………………………....... 27 v Introduction In sports, a general belief that players can produce sequences of consistently superior performance compared to their normal performance exists (Bar-Eli et al., 2006; Heath et al., 2012). This occurrence is referred to as the hot hand effect, and despite its acceptance amongst sports fans, coaches, and players, there is little evidence supporting the hypothesis that it is a real phenomenon (Livingston, 2012). The subject of this research is professional golf. Analyzing hot streaks in golf has proven to be difficult because judging success is not as simple as other sports. For example, basketball and other shooting sports contain a clear success (scoring) and fail (missing) outcome. In golf, shots can be rated, but the score is player dependent and is impacted by factors such as environment, ability, course condition, and others (Heath et al., 2012; Rees and James, 2006). This makes examining two separate events difficult. However, golf continues to be an area of interest for persistence investigation. Many studies have deployed approaches that analyze hole-to-hole performance with different criterion for judging success, but week-to-week linkage is rare. Rosenqvist and Skans’ (2015) research on the effects of success on future performance in golf tournaments is closely related to this study, but their measure of success is defined differently. No previous studies have used rank movement as a measure of success. An ordinary least squares regression will be used to examine the impact that previous rankings have on current rankings for professional golfers. Using weekly rankings from the 2016 and 2017 periods, this study contributes to hot hand effects research in professional golf by looking at persistent rank movement in the Official World Golf Rankings. What the results suggest is that although streaks of rank movement occur, significant statistical evidence was not found. This suggests that the persistence that does happen is random. The study will be organized as follows: Literature Review, Theory, Data, Results, and Conclusion. The literature review will highlight previous research on hot hand effects in sports. Next, the theory will explain this study’s approach to answering the question of persistence in professional golf rankings. Following theory, the data will be described. Finally, the results of the research will be discussed and the study will be concluded. 2 Literature Review The hot hand effect is an idea that has been studied extensively across numerous fields such as economics, mathematics, and psychology. It has evolved throughout years of research, but the primary focus continues to be whether the hot hand effect is present or not. Livingston (2011) describes it as a topic of interest because people believe strongly in its occurrence despite little evidence supporting that it is a real phenomenon. For example, in a study performed by Gilovich et al. (1985), there was no evidence that a hot hand effect exists in basketball, however, they found strong evidence that basketball fans believe in it. In their study, 91 percent of their sample believed that a player “has a better chance of making a shot after having made his last two or three shots than he does after having just missed his last two or three shots.” Due to the fact that there is such a strong popular belief in it, there is a wide variety of strategies that have been deployed to evaluate the impact of past successes on future performances. Bar-Eli et al. (2006) compiled both supportive and non-supportive studies throughout years of research. Their literature review resulted in thirteen non- supportive studies and eleven supportive studies, but stressed that the results of the non- supportive studies weigh heavier than the supportive. However, since that review of hot hand research was released, further evaluation has been conducted and more supportive studies have surfaced. This literature review will look at hot hand research in its entirety. To do so, the literature review will be broken up into three sections: The beginning of streak research, psychological theories, and golf specific studies. Each section will analyze and discuss relevant literature to better understand the research that has been conducted. 3 2.1 Beginning of Streak Research Most people in the world of sports acknowledge that streaks happen. For example, a baseball player could put together ten straight hits, or a basketball player could make six straight shots, but what motivates streakiness studies across major sports is whether the observed superior performance is different than what could occur by chance (Bar-Eli et al., 2006). Gilovich et al. (1985) is acclaimed for initiating research on the hot hand effect in sports. Like many subsequent studies, Gilovich and his partners set out to obtain statistical data that supports the existence of streakiness in the sport of basketball. The first step entailed surveying basketball fans to determine if a belief in streak shooting exists. After establishing that there was an acceptance of persistence in the game of basketball, this belief was translated into a statistical hypothesis that could be tested (Bar- Eli et al., 2006). Two primary studies were introduced in this portion of their research. The first study analyzed professional basketball field goal data. Individual field goal records were compiled from 48 home games during the 1980-1981 season for both the Philadelphia 76ers and their opponents. This data was used to determine that the probability of making a shot was usually lower after having made shots than having missed shots, providing evidence against the hot hand (Bar-Eli et al., 2006 & Gilovich et al., 1985). Although evidence against streak shooting from the field is presented, shot selection and the opponent’s defensive efforts are factors introduced that could be responsible for the negative correlation between successive shots (Gilovich et al., 1985). To avoid these confounding factors, the second study looked at professional basketball 4 free-throw data. Free throws are most commonly shot in pairs from the same location without defensive pressure. All pairs of free throws by Boston Celtics players during the 1980-1981 and the 1981-1982 seasons were collected for this analysis. However, the data again showed that the outcome of the second free throw is not influenced by the outcome of the first free throw, providing no statistical support for persistence in basketball shots. Although Gilovich and his colleagues presented statistical evidence against streakiness in basketball, it has served as a foundation for research to develop and extend across many sports. In addition to basketball, research on streakiness continues to surface in baseball (Kvam & Chen, 2017; Vergin, 2000), tennis (Page & Coates, 2017), and like this study, golf (Clark, 2005a; Clark 2005b; Heath et al., 2012; Rees and James, 2006; Livingston, 2012; Rosenqvist & Skans, 2015). 2.2 Psychological Theories How an athlete reacts to certain events can have a lasting effect on the athlete’s psychological state (Adler, 1981; Bar-Eli et al., 2006; Compte & Postlewaite, 2004; Gilovich et al., 1985; Livingston, 2011; Taylor & Demick, 1994). Sports has been a topic of interest in psychology because performance varies as the game progresses. It is a series of small events that can be perceived by an athlete in different ways, impacting a player’s psychological and physiological states. For example,