Trends in Homicide in the United States

Trends in Homicide in the United States By Fulano de Tal

Trends in the Twentieth Century  Two Sharp Peaks o During alcohol prohibition o During drug prohibition  High unemployment also correlates with high homicide rates  The decline in homicide in the 1990s corresponds to a period of declining gun ownership HOMICIDE 11

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

 The first increase was during alcohol prohibition  The second was during drug prohibition  The recent decline, however, is during a period of continuing drug prohibition UNEMP MALE UNEMP FEM 9

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000  There was a increase in unemployment in the 1970s and early 1980s when homicide increased  This was true for men and women  Unemployment declined in the 1990s as the homicide rate declined.  The 1930s was also a period of high unemployment Correlation between Unemployment Rates and Homicide Rates

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 Men 0.4 Women 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Correlation Coefficients

 Homicide rates and unemployment rates are positively correlated  This is true for both men and women  Data are for 53 years OWNGUNGSS 51

1980 1990 2000

 Gun ownership also declined during the 1990s when homicide and other crime rates declined Conclusions

 Vigorous efforts to enforce prohibition of drugs or alcohol may lead to higher homicide rates  Higher unemployment rates may lead to increased homicide rates  Cutting the number of households with guns may cut homicide rates