SEMINAR IN GLOBAL ISSUES SYRACUSE UNIVERSITY—January-May 2017 Dr. Jim Keagle [email protected] 202-685-3700 (wp); 703-764-0726 (hp)

COURSE DESCRIPTION (3 CREDIT HOURS): The inauguration should kick off one of the most dramatic periods in American political history as we seek to understand the process of policymaking!!! It will be an interesting time with a new agenda moat likely delivered at a very fast pace.

ISIS, China, Russia, and Iran seem to be the big four foreign policy/national security priorities at the moment—plus a domestic agenda of repealing the ACA (Obama Care), securing the border (building some kind of wall and immigration reform), tax reform, energy policy, and regulatory relief that should be equally fact paced and transformational.

ISIS—the buzz in late December seems to be the generals have 30 days to come up with a strategy to eradicate ISIS. Seems like a switch to a “killing” strategy

RUSSIA—is cooperation possible? In Syria? Against China? In Europe?

CHINA—more confrontations and conflict seem to be the direction for Trump. Reclamation projects and the PRC checkbook (AIIB) seem prominent

IRAN--Syria and Iraq (IS, ISIS, ISIL), RUSSIA and its hybrid war post-Ukraine and our efforts to DETER—maybe avoiding another former empire seeking to expand its influence. The Shia Crescent?

Immigration—Policing (Ferguson, Garner, Gray, san Bernardino, Baton Rouge, Orlando and beyond —reclamation/creation projects in the South China Sea post the decision of the international tribunal —North Korea and Ballistic Missile Defense (THAAD and Goalkeeper)—BREXIT—Turkey post failed coup-regulatory reform--these seem poised to dominate the agenda.

Congress returns in January to prepare for the Inauguration and the first 100 Days or more.

The process and substance of international relations (IR) and international and national security are explored via an examination of global and domestic issues through the eyes of the U.S. national security community. Thus, while the focus begins with the nation-state (and the US as sole surviving superpower)) as the principal actor in the international arena, we will pay attention to any changes to the system that are threatening the pre-eminence of the nation state—the war on terrorism and its cost, populism and the challenges to sovereignty being pre-eminent among them. Cost is understood as multi-dimensional—blood, treasure and values among its key considerations. Different paradigms emphasize other players—non-state actors—and themes such as the clash of civilizations/cultures, How Iraq/Syria, the Ukraine, and Iran are affecting Europe and the Euro-Zone will also be center- stage in our discussions. Fundamentalism/Extremism/Fascism/Nationalism/Populism, ethnic conflict/nationalism, where the Arab Spring goes in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East, climate change, and globalization in the international system will be relevant. Course is integrative in that all the tools and instruments of policy are considered--military, economic, political, diplomatic, technological, etc. Course is inclusive—most major issues are addressed, regardless of whether or not they fit with the traditional EAST-WEST and North Atlantic/Euro-centric focus of conventional IR theories. In fact, the emphasis is on the expanding definition of “national security” and the threats that these new (and traditional) security issues pose to the nation state—like homeland security and combating ideological support for the terrorists. . The course is less theoretical and more policy and politics heavy. I am assuming that each student has an adequate grounding in IR theory—e.g., Russett and Starr, Dougherty and Pfaltzgraff—have written two classic texts. Therefore, most of our effort will be examining systematically the global issues of the post-9/11 era and using the U.S. policymaking machinery to do so. This is a U.S. centric and Executive branch centric course. However, the role of the Congress in considering changes to how we tax and spend and in addressing the debt/deficit issues will be very important in our considerations. The war on terrorism/Iraq/Iran/Afghanistan will be addressed specifically. U.S. “management of its empire” will also be central to our studies. In this sense the course will seem to fit the mold of other IR courses. You may also if your interests take you there, write 2 of your papers on domestic issues. But above all else the following themes will influence our readings, research, and discussions:

1. President-elect Trump wants to reverse the deal (JCPOA) with Iran as ineffectual in preventing nuclear proliferation in the MENA... In Afghanistan, the commitment to some residual force of about 8000 beyond) 2016 responds to the military chiefs in the Pentagon—but may be re- visited... He now faces renewed Taliban battlefield successes. The new AUMF--the specific authorizations for the use of military force in the immediate aftermath of 9/11 re Syria and Iraq—may be on the table again... Interesting backstory here. For Trump, the war against ISIS needs to be “won.” What about Syria (and drones flying out of Turkey and the key Incirlik air base?)? Pakistan? Somalia? Yemen? Libya? Mali? How will Mattis rebuild the defense budget? The new team must balance growing demands to balance the defense strategy with COIN initiatives to protect indigenous populations, necessary capabilities to fight a major war, and the increasingly prevalent use of UAV systems and a CT strategy. Cost will increasingly factor into these discussions as the war bill (OCO account) still approaches $70B /year. Look for CT to continue to replace COIN as the centerpiece of U.S. strategy (see Panetta’s speech to BENS, 20 Nov 2012).

2. The 2017 calendar will be filled with budget politics and the interaction among the President, Congress and the American people—not just with Trump’s leadership and political standing but also with the repeal of Obama care, entitlements generally, the tax code, and energy (what is happening with cap and trade and climate change—and the zero option re nuclear weapons?). And immigration! It begins with return of Congress in January and the Inauguration on January 20th.

3. Energy Security/Independence and oil prices—where does the price settle? Near $55 right now (December. 2016). Hydro-fracturing and LNG—are these real energy game changers? What does this mean for the traditional oil producers? Russia? Saudi Arabia? OPEC generally? How far away from a serious conversion to green technology and robotic cars are we? People are buying SUVs again—and not electric cars.

4. The pivot to the Asia-Pacific and China—peer competitor????— reclamation/creation projects in the South China Sea and the ADIZ controversy in the East China Sea); how about building of a 2nd aircraft carrier? The second island chain strategy? Japan? Ballistic Missile Defense for the ROK? Anti-Access/Area Denial in general? AIIB? Bilateral trade agreements in lieu of TPP?

5. The Mid-east peace process and the future of the Arab Spring movements—now 7 + years old; what do we do re ISIS? What about Syria? How long can Assad last? The post Assad Syria and the nature of the opposition (Al Qaeda links?). What happens after “verification of the destruction of chemical weapons?” Can we make that deal with Russia?

6. The continuing Russia-Georgia and Russia-Ukraine sagas—what do they illuminate re ethnic nationalism, NATO expansion, Russian resurgence/imperial ambitions/xenophobia (what does the ratification of START mean to all of this?)? Is it all about energy? Where are we with the reset? The future of Article V in NATO? For Poland? Latvia? Moldova, Transniestria, Romania? Sweden? Finland? The Warsaw summit focused on deterrence and moving military capability forward. Are we in or headed towards a new Cold War?

7. Whither the Euro-Zone and the EU in the face of electoral reactions to austerity programs, immigration, and BREXIT? Greece? Spain? Even Germany and its interdependence with Russia? Is Merkel’s original open arms welcoming approach to immigration and refugees dead?

8. The U.S. budget in a period of austerity—spending for entitlements, defense, debt and deficit; the Medicaid//Obama Care nexus has stirred the reaction among the states—as we age—what happens to retiring in one’s 60s? Medicare and Medicaid untouchables for Trump? Bu not Ryan?

9. Immigration—both legal and illegal—anchor babies, the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 14th Amendments, walls, and Trump’s campaign rhetoric?

10. Drug War

11. BRICS—are they done rising?

12. What will the social agenda bring us following Ferguson et al, ant the policing challenge?

13. This semester really will explode with the Inauguration. We face yet another looming session of Congress dominated by divisive politics—and the post- election adjustments to a Trump presidency—fairness, immigration, health care, energy, policing, war—and the debate about how gloomy or rosy the current state of affairs is. Politics will be an important element that we must consider on each issue.

PREREQUISITES: The student should know the basic features of the international system as it has operated historically and be familiar with the traditional concepts of EAST-WEST and NORTH- SOUTH as they structure thinking about IR and relevant global and regional issues. Students should have completed basic undergraduate courses in IR theory/American foreign policymaking.

COURSE OBJECTVES: Upon course completion, the student should have a reinforced understanding of:  the actors and their involvement in IR; the tools of IR interaction; the relationship between politics and economics in IR; the major theoretical approaches to the study of IR; and the global (and regional) issues in IR in the 1990s; and

 how to apply generally IR theory to any global issue.

 Most importantly, the student should better understand the process of national security policymaking in the U.S. as well as the manner in which the actors in the U.S. government establishment understand and decide issues. It will be a course about how Washington works. The single best recent article is from The Atlantic, “How American Politics Went Insane,” by Jonathan Rauch (July/August edition).  http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/07/how-american-politics- went-insane/485570/

In this sense, this course will likely be different from any other course you have ever taken.  Finally, the student should have a sense for the way in which the current menu of issues facing the international community offers threats as well as opportunities not only for the system as a whole and us as inhabitants of this planet, but also for the nation state, which has been the dominant form of organization for the past 500 years.

REQUIRED TEXTS: Time, Newsweek, The Economist, The Washington Post , Wall Street Journal, New York Times, etc Students should have available current periodicals and newspapers and will be expected to watch relevant current affairs TV broadcasts ((I expect everyone to read the Washington Post ((its A and Outlook sections) Foreign Affairs, The Atlantic, and the weekly national periodicals.)). The Washington Times is also part of the daily chatter in DC. You must watch the Saturday evening/Sunday morning talk shows/news broadcasts. Good background books are: Ian Bremmer’s, Superpower. I recommend a quick read of Thomas Friedman’s , The World is Flat, and Natan Sharansky’s, The Case for Democracy. I will flood you with electronic readings weekly that you can peruse. Sageman has a new text on leaderless terrorist networks. See recent critiques of the Bush administration such as Cobra II and Fiasco. See Doug Feith’s War and Decision; See Ron Suskind’s The Price of Loyalty, The One Percent Doctrine, and his most recent The Way of the World. These catch you up on the Bush legacy that Obama inherited. Two most recent books about how DC works are: Gutmann and Thompson, The Spirit of Compromise: Why Governing Demands It and Campaigning Undermines It; : Mann and Ornstein, It’s Even Worse Than it Looks

METHODOLOGY: This class is a seminar. No more that one-half of any meeting I will devote to a formal lecture, and student involvement is encouraged during any lecture (discussion based rather than lecture based learning environment). Significant burdens lie on each of us to be prepared fully prior to class. This means, of course, that assignments should be accomplished before class. Moreover, we all must devote time prior to class to thinking through the issues raised in the readings. You should allocate at least one-half of your preparation time to these thoughtful deliberations. Learn to read quickly and carefully—and make strategic decisions about what to read—and how to share your insights with others—in class and at the workplace.

I will assume the burden of making the seminars enjoyable learning experiences--a place and time we all look forward to. I will mix a variety of techniques throughout the course so that we are more able to keep our focus on learning. Learning can be fun, and making it so is one of my primary objectives.

EVALUATION: Grading is important to you and me and is a responsibility I take very seriously. I am flexible in my approach as to how you may earn your grade and will detail this more thoroughly in class. What follows is my general expectation for your level of work. Class attendance is expected.

Four written issues paper(s) (see below) 75% #1 Class 4 15% #2 Class 7 15% #3 Class 10 20 % #4 Class 13 25%

Class discussions/presentations 25% (This means you must be ACTIVE participant and not just a passive listener I will explain this in class). It is highly improbable that even with A’s on all papers you can earn above an A- for the course if you are not an active seminar participant.

Final Exam/Extra paper (optional—can raise your evaluation up to one letter grade; particularly recommended for those who are less involved in class discussions)

Each issue paper is to be three pages in length (less than 1000 words) and will contain the following sections—background, issue, options, recommendations, and traps (sample format will be provided; beginning with paper #3 talking points are also required). An additional one- half page of talking points are required for papers three, four, and five. You will write this as if you were crafting a position for your “principal,” who sits at the table of the senior-level, NSC-chaired meeting. You will be recommending a course of action, or option, for the president—President Obama. It must be in the ballpark of what he is willing to consider. How you define the issue is the starting point of the paper and crucial to what follows (not everyone will frame the issue the same). You must accomplish five of these issue papers. I will permit a sixth (or more) as an un-graded learning experience (that means you take your five highest). One is required not later than 4 p.m. on the day of our fourth, seventh, tenth, and thirteenth meetings. You must finish paper #1 before moving on to paper #2. You must finish paper #2 before moving on to paper #3, etc. One-half letter grade deductions from each paper evaluation will occur for failure to be timely with your paper submissions (and will be additive—one-half letter grade subtraction when it is late (at 4:00 p.m. on the respective due date) and an additional one-half letter grade each subsequent day late). You may submit up to two drafts prior to the due date and time for the first two papers—and I will comment as my time permits. But your final draft (or paper) is still due at 4 p.m. on the 4rd. 10th, and 13th meeting days of our class. Papers may be submitted electronically (Microsoft Word document) or paper. I normally return the electronic submissions with one working day. Paper submissions will be returned to you the next scheduled class unless you and I arrange differently. All work must be submitted not later than 12 noon following our last scheduled class meeting. That means no drafts for the last two papers. You are solo for these.

Each student is required to schedule and complete a face-to-face mid-term progress review with me between the 7th and 9th lessons. Expect this to take between 15-30 minutes. This is a student requirement to initiate and schedule with me.

Notional Schedule of Topics is included in integrated document for all three classes.

Notionally 1 Inauguration—security, political and economic agenda 2 Human rights and the case study of Syria 3 ISIS 4 Russia 5 China—One Road, One Belt 6 Japan, DPRK, and Russia 7 Social media—CVE, jobs, jobs, jobs—this may be the most interesting class of all as we explore the President’s approach to control the narrative through tweets (early in the morning) and squeeze out the mainstream media (the demise of the WH press conference 8 Indian sub-continent and Afghanistan 9 Legislations vs governance by administrative regulation—tax reform and infrastructure investment plans 10 Rise of populism—Kaliningrad case study/war game 11 Africa 12 Energy 13 Turkey and the Middle East—arms sales (FMS) and oil? 14 Immigration. Border security, The wall, and sanctuary cities 15 TBD