APPENDIX A: COUNTRY INCLUSION

Countries included in the analysis (in grey) Albania, Algeria, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, *Australia, *Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, *Belarus, *Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, *Bulgaria, Burundi, *Canada, Cape Verde, Chile, Colombia, Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cote d’Ivoire, *Croatia, *Czech Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, *Denmark, Dominican Republic, Egypt, *Estonia, *Finland, *France, Gabon, Georgia, *Germany, Ghana, *Greece, Guinea Bissau, *Hungary, *Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, *Ireland, Israel, *Italy, Jamaica, *Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, *Latvia, *Lebanon, *Liechtenstein, *Lithuania, *Luxembourg, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Moldova,*Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Namibia, *Netherlands, *New Zealand, Niger, *Norway, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, *Poland , *Portugal, Qatar, *Romania, *Russia, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Samoa, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, *Slovakia, *Slovenia, South Africa, *Spain, Swaziland, *Sweden, *Switzerland, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Tonga, Turkmenistan, *Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, *United Kingdom, *United States, Uruguay , Uzbekistan, Vietnam. *Annex I group

1 APPENDIX B: CODEBOOK

TRACKING GLOBAL ADAPTATION TO IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The goal of this project is to determine the current state of adaptation across the world. The analysis systematically compares the status and character of adaptation across high income, middle income, and low income countries, and across regions. This document summarizes the objectives of the project, and details the coding scheme that will guide data collection.

OBJECTIVES

Drawing on the comparative methodology developed in Lesnikowski et al 2011, this project further develops and clarifies a systematic and indicator-based approach to comparing adaptation policy at the national level. It expands on the previous analysis by considering non-Annex I countries as well as Annex I countries, and considers all vulnerabilities associated with climate change (a step beyond Lesnikowski et al 2011, which considers adaptation to health impacts of climate change). It also simplifies the methodology in such a way that the framework can be applied to any sector and any country. Indicators 4 to 11 have been expanded to include a wider range of vulnerabilities and actors, and health-specific indicators have been eliminated.

Drawing on adaptation scholarship (Smit et al 2000), three questions are addressed in this analysis:

1. What are we adapting to?

2. How are we adapting?

3. Who is adapting?

The first question is concerned with identified the kinds of vulnerabilities that countries are addressing. It will determine whether countries are progressing further on some vulnerabilities than on others, and whether there are regional patterns on vulnerability response. Data from this analysis can then be compared with IPCC assessments to determine whether countries are focusing on key vulnerabilities.

The second question is concerned with identifying the types of responses being undertaken to increase resilience to climate change vulnerability. Climate change responses are broken into three levels of action, recognition, groundwork and adaptation. In categorizing actions according to this spectrum, this question assesses how far countries have progressed toward implementing adaptation. The distribution of countries across continents also allows for an analysis of regional differences in adaptation progress. Finally, this question considers the extent to which adaptation

2 is either being mainstreamed into existing institutes or new adaptations are being designed and implemented.

This third question considers the types of actors involved in planning, designing, and implementing adaptation. It identifies actors based on public / private categorization, and government / non-government status. Government actors are further identified by level of jurisdiction. Sectoral involvement is identified, which will indicate which sectors can be considered leaders on climate change adaptation. Finally, special consideration is made for the inclusion of vulnerable groups in the process of adapting. Given the differential way that climate change will affect human communities, it is critical that vulnerable groups be considered in any adaptation analysis.

DATA SOURCE

In order to conduct a systematic analysis, a consistent data source is critical. The vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation chapter of the National Communications was selected as the data source for this project because to our knowledge it is the only standardized data source available for a large number of countries across high, medium, and low income countries. Because national governments self-report progress on treaty implementation to the FCCC Secretariat, the information presented about vulnerability response and adaptation is here considered representative of government priorities and commitments. Although these documents cannot be interpreted as complete inventories of adaptation in each country, they do indicate the nature and depth of adaptation efforts. From this we can compare vulnerability priorities, leadership, and general progress on adaptation across countries.

Owing to the principal of common but differentiated responsibility enshrined in the FCCC, reporting obligations differ between Annex I and non-Annex I parties in terms of timeline and content. The following text summarizes the reporting guidelines for Annex I parties concerning vulnerability assessment, impacts, and adaptation:

A national communication shall include information on the expected impacts of climate change and a outline of the action taken to implement Article 4.1(b) and (e) with regard to adaptation. Parties are encouraged to use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impacts Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Parties may refer, inter alia, to integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture. Parties may also report on specific results of scientific research in the field of vulnerability assessment and adaptation.

Annex I parties submit National Communications at the discretion of the COP every 4-5 years; the most recent NC was the fifth report, submitted by 1 January 2010. All Annex I reports are then subject to an in-depth review that assesses the parties progress on implementation of its treaty commitments.

3 Non-Annex I parties submit their first NC within three years of the entry into force of the convention for that party, or as financial resources become available. The Global Environmental Facility functions as a financial support body for non-Annex I parties working toward submitting their National Communications. COP11 (2005) set a timeline for the submission of the second, and in some cases of some countries the third, communication. The following text summarizes the reporting guidelines for non-Annex I parties:

30. Non-Annex I Parties may use appropriate methodologies and guidelines they consider better able to reflect their national situation for assessing their vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, provided that these methodologies and guidelines are consistent, transparent and well documented. 31. Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to use, for the evaluation of adaptation strategies and measures, appropriate methodologies they consider better able to reflect their national situation, provided that these methodologies are consistent, transparent and well documented. 32. Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on the scope of their vulnerability and adaptation assessment, including identification of vulnerable areas that are most critical. 33. Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to include a description of approaches, methodologies and tools used, including scenarios for the assessment of impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change, as well as any uncertainties inherent in these methodologies. 34. Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on their vulnerability to the impacts of, and their adaptation to, climate change in key vulnerable areas. Information should include key findings, and direct and indirect effects arising from climate change, allowing for an integrated analysis of the country’s vulnerability to climate change. 35. Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to provide information on and, to the extent possible, an evaluation of, strategies and measures for adapting to climate change, in key areas, including those which are of the highest priority. 36. Where relevant, Parties may report on the use of policy frameworks, such as national adaptation programmes, plans and policies for developing and implementing adaptation strategies and measures. Only countries that submitted National Communications between 2008 and July 1 2012 have been included in the sample. The most recent Annex I NC (the fifth) was submitted over a period of two years between 2008 and 2009; non-Annex I countries were selected to fit this time frame.

Only the chapter on vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation will be used, unless the reader is specifically directed to adaptation-relevant information in other chapters.

SAMPLE

The follow 117 countries are included in this analysis:

4 Albania, Algeria, Angola, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, *Australia, *Austria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, *Belarus, *Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, *Bulgaria, Burundi, *Canada, Cape Verde, Chile, Colombia, Congo, Cook Islands, Costa Rica, Cote d’Ivoire, *Croatia, *Czech Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, *Denmark, Dominican Republic, Egypt, *Estonia, *Finland, *France, Gabon, Georgia, *Germany, Ghana, *Greece, Guinea Bissau, *Hungary, *Iceland, India, Indonesia, Iran, *Ireland, Israel, *Italy, Jamaica, *Japan, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, *Latvia, *Lebanon, *Liechtenstein, *Lithuania, *Luxembourg, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mexico, Moldova,*Monaco, Mongolia, Montenegro, Morocco, Namibia, *Netherlands, *New Zealand, Niger, *Norway, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, *Poland , *Portugal, Qatar, *Romania, *Russia, Rwanda, Saint Lucia, Samoa, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, *Slovakia, *Slovenia, South Africa, *Spain, Swaziland, *Sweden, *Switzerland, Syria, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Tonga, Turkmenistan, *Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, *United Kingdom, *United States, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Vietnam. *Annex I group

DATA ORGANIZATION AND ANALYSIS

Data collected from the NC will be contained in a Microsoft Access database. Discrete forms will organize data by individual action according to a defined set of indicators. Twelve indicators have been created based on the research questions identified above. They are: i) country, ii) communication number, iii) reporting year, iv) entry title, v) vulnerability, vi) level(s) of action, vii) type(s) of action, viii) status of action, ix) approach, x) actor, xi) sector, and xii) vulnerable group.

Although the analysis conducted with this data will be primarily descriptive, the analysis will be completed using STATA. This departs from the previous analysis on the status of health adaptation to climate change, which relied on Excel for most of the analysis. STATA, however, will be more appropriate for this analysis because it allows for descriptive analysis of non- mutually exclusive variables, i.e. variables that allow more than option to be selected simultaneously. The result of this is a database in which a discrete entry (meaning a discrete row) constitutes a discrete action. In other words, 50 rows indicate 50 actions on climate change. A single action (or row) may thus constitute more than one type of action, or address more than one kind of vulnerability. In the case of some countries, the report might discuss at length (for example) the findings of a single assessment. Regardless of how much detail is provided, however, this would be entered into the database as a single action, with all the appropriate types of action, vulnerabilities, actors, etc selected within the indicators.

The benefit of this approach is that the range of vulnerabilities and kinds of action being addressed and implemented will be documented. The drawback is that action entries will not capture how much emphasis is being taken on particular kind of risk; a single entry may capture

5 three vulnerabilities, but will not be able to identify which vulnerability (or vulnerabilities) is considered particularly critical.

CODEBOOK: Inclusion criteria

To qualify for inclusion in the dataset, information must meet three criteria.

1. Relevancy: Actions must be concerned with impacts of climatic changes, not impacts of general climate processes (including carbon sequestration or release) or weather, introductory or background statements, methodological descriptions, or sectoral trends. The FCCC defines climate change as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.” This differs from the IPCC definition of climate change, which “refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.” For this purposes of this study, the FCCC definition will be used.

Actions must be concerned with adapting to climate change, not mitigating future climate change (i.e. emissions reduction). This study uses the IPCC definition of adaptation, “actual adjustments, or changes in decision environments, which might ultimately enhance resilience or reduce vulnerability observed or expected changes in climate.”

Actions can be concerned with the effect of climate change on any type of system (human, marine, terrestrial, or riparian) and any type of vulnerability associated with a changing climate. Both positive and negative impacts of climate change will be included in the dataset. Where climate change is not specifically identified as a component of risk, only include the action if it can be reasonably inferred that climate change is taken into account. Exclude general monitoring of temperature, precipitation, extreme events, etc unless climate change is a clearly related.

2. Minimum level of information: Information in the NC must allow the coder to identify the Level of Action at which the initiative is occurring (groundwork, adaptation), and the Type of Action that the initiative constitutes (climate change scenario, impact / vulnerability assessment, adaptation research, stakeholder networking, conceptual tool, policy recommendation, legislation, departmental development, public awareness / outreach, surveillance / monitoring, infrastructure development / technology, resource transfer / financial mechanism). All other indicators can be marked indeterminate or none

6 if the information is unclear or not provided, but the action must be classified according to level and type to be included in the dataset.

Note: Actions discussed in more than one part of the report should only be entered once. Be careful not to double enter information on the same actions.

Note: Policy recommendations are frequently embedded within descriptions of other actions, particularly impaction or vulnerability assessments or adaptation research. Pay close attention to where recommendations are made and enter them separately.

3. Country involvement: Actions must be conducted either exclusively through the reporting country, or in cooperation with the reporting country. Include actions that are specific to certain regions (e.g. southern Africa, central Europe). Exclude descriptions of biomes (e.g. alpine) as they can apply in many regions around the world. Identification of initiatives carried out by other countries will be excluded. In the case of initiatives implemented by non-government actors, the action must be conducted within the reporting country. General discusses about global climate change (e.g. global temperature change) should be excluded. References to previous National Communications should be excluded.

Peer reviewed / grey literature should be included in the database only if the content of the document is specifically about that country. If necessary, check article titles in the NC references. If references are not clearly related to climate change studies then exclude them. General articles about climate change impacts or adaptation should be eliminated as background information.

CODEBOOK: Note on titling entries

Entries should be consistently titled so that the name of the initiative is clear. The name of the initiative may include the name of a program, study, document, regulation, project, conference , tool etc.

In cases where there is no clear initiative title, the type of action and /or vulnerability and / or sector can be substituted for the name of the program (e.g.: Infrastructure development and technology: Floods; Impact and vulnerability assessment: Food safety and security).

When entering policy recommendations, use the following format:

Policy recommendation: Type of action recommended

7 In the case of peer reviewed or grey literature, the name of the document can be used in the name of the entry (e.g. Climate change impacts on water quality in Egypt); if title is unavailable then the author’s names can be used instead.

In many cases, the sections concerning impacts and vulnerability discuss risk factors without citing external sources. Sometimes this is because the only impact and vulnerability assessment reported by a country is an assessment conducted for the purpose of submitting the National Communication. It may also be difficult to identify which source information was obtained from if it is discussed multiple times and / or consistent referencing is not followed. In cases where it is not evident where the information was obtained from, create a single entry for the National Communicated itself and include all miscellaneous information therein. Select all relevant options for each indicator. This will ensure that the information is captured in the results analysis. Use the following format for the entry title:

First / second / third / fourth / fifth National Communication: Country name

CODEBOOK: Indicators

Indicators 1 to 4 are intended to provide basic information on the reporting timeline and Annex I and II participation. Only on option will be selected per indicator. In cases where a communication was submitted in one year and updated in another (e.g. submitted 2008, updated or edited 2010), select the most recent (updated) year (e.g. 2010). A text box will be provided under Indicator 4 (Entry title) where all text from the National Communication used to code the action should be copied and pasted.

1. Country Open field 2. One Communication Two number Three Four Five 3. Reporting year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 4. Entry title Open field (+ text box)

Indicator 5 addresses the question “what are we adapting to.” The options listed under this indicator are derived from the description of vulnerabilities summarized by the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change in the Fourth Assessment Report. The vulnerabilities capture six broad categories of impacts: biodiversity, hydrological systems, agriculture, coastal settlements, health, and economy. They include both human and natural systems, and each can

8 impact different sectors in varying ways. For example, drought may affect the agricultural sector in terms of crop productivity, but can also impact human health in terms of public safety and transmission of water-borne illness. Vulnerabilities can be inter-connected; for example, precipitation alone can affect agricultural productivity, or it can affect agricultural productivity through changing patterns of flooding, drought, or run-off. This indicator is not mutually exclusive. In cases where multiple vulnerabilities are addressed through one groundwork or adaptation action, select all relevant vulnerabilities. This will ensure that a single row corresponds to a discrete action (e.g. 100 rows indicates 100 actions). See Appendix A for a full explanation of how the categories under this variable were developed.

5. Vulnerability Sea level rise Coastal inundation, saline intrusion. Not Not mutually defined as a single, extreme event (e.g. exclusive flooding or storms), but rather a creeping effect of climate change along coastal areas Frozen ground Changes in snow cover and / or permafrost, glacial retreat. Rainfall Increase in daily precipitation. Can be linked to flooding, drought, water safety and security. NOT precipitation measured in climate change scenarios. Runoff Level of moisture not absorbed by vegetation. Can be linked to food safety and security. Water quality and Affected by changes in precipitation / quantity drought / extreme weather (e.g. floods). Increase of contamination in drinking and recreational water supply. Including salt water inundation of fresh water sources, irrigation for crops, and water management. Floods Caused by heavy rains, sea level rise. Public safety hazard, increases risk of water-borne contamination and infrastructure damage, population displacement. Drought Caused by decrease in precipitation / land-use changes. Decrease in food security and water security. Storms More frequent and violent thunderstorms, winter storms, tropical storms (hurricanes, cyclones), high winds, and storm surges. Public safety hazard, population displacement. Wildfires Caused by elevated heat and dry conditions. Public safety hazard, air quality, population displacement. Erosion / land slides Mudslides, avalanches, rock slides, debris flows. Public safety hazard, population

9 displacement. Desertification Land degradation in arid, semi-arid, or dry areas. Food quality and Affected by changes in precipitation /drought. quantity Increase in food-borne contamination, decrease in food availability. Includes crops, livestock / animal husbandry, and fisheries. Infectious disease Changes in transmission patterns of rodent and vector-borne diseases. Air quality Air pollution, including higher levels of ground-level ozone, airborne dust, particulates, increased production of pollens and spores by plants. Eye, nose, throat irritation; exacerbated asthma or allergy symptoms; chronic pulmonary disease or respiratory conditions; increased risk of certain cancers. Extreme heat More frequent and severe heat waves. Heat- related illness and deaths; respiratory and cardiovascular disorders. Extreme cold More frequent and severe cold conditions. Hypothermia and cold-related deaths; respiratory and cardiovascular disorders. Mental health Psychological impacts resulting from climate change stress. Human health (general) Physical health and well-being affected by climatic changes. Includes respiratory disease. Marine ecosystem health Loss of species, migration, spread of pests and wildlife disease in salt water bodies. Including coral bleaching and ocean acidification, sea surface temperatures, sea-ice biomes, and changes in oceanic currents. Freshwater ecosystem Loss of species, migration, spread of pests and health disease, hydrological systems, and river shifting. Terrestrial ecosystem Loss of species, migration, spread of pests and health disease. Including forest system health, wetlands, bogs, peatlands, NPP (not carbon sequestration), and general terms like biodiversity. Economic Loss of profitability or viability, or increased costs in private sectors due to climatic change. Includes insurance, tourism, agriculture, forestry, etc. Electricity / Loss of power and / or communication due to telecommunications extreme weather. Displacement / conflict Mass population displacement, violence

10 resulting from resource scarcity or population movement Traditional lifestyles Loss of cultural traditions, methods of acquiring and using natural resources Other (Description field) Vulnerabilities not captured among the options above. Includes general references to “extreme weather events” and “climate change” in cases where vulnerabilities are not specified. Includes UV radiation. Indeterminate Program described, vulnerability(ies) addressed not specified.

Variable 6 address the question “how are we adapting.” It distinguishes actions by two levels: groundwork and adaptation. These levels were developed for this systematic analysis to define a difference between scoping and preparatory actions, and full adaptation responses. The adaptation category draws on the IPCC definition of adaptation as “actual adjustments, or changes in decision environments, which might ultimately enhance resilience or reduce vulnerability observed or expected changes in climate.” This analysis goes beyond this definition, however to separate actions that have a tangible impact on government services and community functioning (adaptation), and actions that establish the knowledge base and decision- making structures to design and implement adaptation (groundwork).

The categories are not mutually exclusive in the sense that a single action can constitute both groundwork and adaptation (e.g. a government program has an adaptation research department as well as a public awareness department). This will ensure that a single row corresponds to a discrete action (e.g. 100 rows indicates 100 actions).

Example: National Climate Change Program, country Z

 Research program on developing heat response systems, information campaigns through TV advertising

o Level of Action: Groundwork; Adaptation

6. Level(s) of Groundwork Steps taken to prepare for and inform Action adaptation responses. Includes climate / impact Not mutually and vulnerability / adaptation research, exclusive stakeholder organization and decision-making, determination of goals and priorities, and recommendations for action.

Adaptation Steps taken to increase resilience of communities to vulnerabilities associated with climate change. Tangibly alters the delivery of

11 government services. Includes legislation action, departmental organization, awareness programs, monitoring systems, public and private infrastructure, financial or technical support, and performance reviews assessing adaptation effectiveness.

Variable 7 addresses the question “how are we adapting.” It lists types of groundwork and adaptation actions that constitute responses to vulnerability. The separation between groundwork and adaptation action is similar to the distinction made in Tompkins et al 2010 between “building adaptive capacity” and “implementation actions,” but to our knowledge previous adaptation analyses have not created specific categories of steps necessary to prepare for and inform adaptation and the tangible initiatives that actually increase human resilience. The typology of groundwork action (climate change scenarios, impact / vulnerability assessments, adaptation research, stakeholder networking, conceptual tools, and policy recommendations) was developed based on the type of actions reported in the National Communications. The range of preparatory actions discussed in the NC have been organized into these six categories and tested against three NC (Jordan, Bhutan, and Australia) to ensure that the options capture all kinds of actions discussed.

The adaptation component of this indicator encompasses categories of adaptation types identified in the IPCC AR4 (physical, technological, investment, regulatory, market- market actions are excluded given that the focus of this analysis is on public-driven adaptation) and is based on the typology of possible adaptation measures to manage health risks summarized in the Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacity. This typology was amended to fit adaptations outside the health sector as well. The category “medical interventions” has been replaced with financial support and resource /information transfers, and department development has been added to reflect the kinds of responses reported in the NC.

Categories are not mutually exclusive; select as many types of action as describes a single response described in the report. This will ensure that a single row corresponds to a discrete action (e.g. 100 rows indicates 100 actions).

Example: National Climate Change Program, country

 Research program on developing heat response systems, information campaigns through TV advertising

o Level of Action: Groundwork; Adaptation

o Type of Action: Adaptation research; Public awareness / outreach

12 Because policy recommendations can vary considerably in terms of specificity and frequently are repeated several times with slight modifications or overlap with other sectors, only one entry per type of action recommended should be entered for each country. For example, Germany may recommend various infrastructure developments throughout the NC to deal with flood management or extreme storms. Only one entry for infrastructure should be made however, with all relevant vulnerabilities and sectors selected. This will avoid the repeated addition of identical or similar entries for policy recommendations. Germany’s list of policy recommendations would appear like this in the database:

 Groundwork: Policy Recommendation: Infrastructure development / technology

o Vulnerabilities: floods, storms

o Sectors: emergency management, spatial planning

 Groundwork: Policy Recommendation: Regulation

o Vulnerabilities: heat, floods, disease, fires, water

o Sectors: health, spatial planning, forestry, water

 Groundwork: Policy Recommendation: Conceptual tool

o Vulnerabilities: Sea-level rise, heat, drought, terrestrial ecosystems

o Sectors: Spatial planning, environment, health, agriculture

This approach is not intended to provide a detailed list of individual policy recommendations; this would be impossible since often they are reiterated throughout reports with varying levels of detail. Instead it will allow us to look at gaps in adaptation action and see if countries have at least progressed on recommending action to close those gaps.

7. Type(s) of Groundwor Climate Change Predictions based on global or regional Action k Scenario climate models and emissions scenarios Not mutually level action on global or regional climatic change. exclusive Typically expressed as change in air temperature and precipitation. Impact / Study of vulnerabilities and / or response vulnerability capacity within national or local context. Assessment May also include adaptation research. Includes scenarios or modeling programs created to inform adaptation. May include research about climate change indicators. Adaptation Study of response options based on Research vulnerability context. May include

13 impact /vulnerability assessments. Includes R&D for adaptation. Conceptual Tool Modeling programs or tools (including data sets, tools created for other purposes but applied to adaptation studies), databases of information, strategic guidelines, plans, frameworks, policy documents that guide adaptation policy. Not legally binding- sets goals, objectives, and priorities. Including vague statements and concepts (e.g. flood risk management, drought strategy). Stakeholder Networking, information sharing, idea Networking sharing among decision-makers, researchers, civil society, and / or the public. Includes meetings, workshops, and conferences. Policy Actions described by report authors as Recommendation something that “should be done.” s (from the NC) Recommendations are not connected with a policy document and no indication is given that these recommendations have been implemented. Note the type of action that the recommendation is addressing in the title of the entry. E.g.: Groundwork: Policy Recommendation: Infrastructure development and technology. Adaptation Organizational Creation of government agencies, level action Development departments, working groups, or ministries with mandates that address climate change issues. Includes increasing capacity of existing groups to address climate change. Implies allocation of government funding. Regulation Binding regulations, rules, guidelines, laws, or statutes. Passed through legislative bodies or executive powers. Includes regulations on operating procedures for agriculture, public utilities, health care, etc. Includes modification of existing regulations. Public Awareness General information campaigns to / Outreach educate communities about the impacts of climate change and sources of particular community vulnerability. Also

14 includes early warning systems that inform communities of extreme events and provide information on proper individual or household response. E.g. heat wave warning systems, storm warning systems. These warning systems may (and probably will) include surveillance and monitoring systems that inform authorities about when the public should be notified about elevated risk (e.g. weather stations that monitor and predict temperatures, used in heat warning systems). Surveillance / Systems for registering vulnerable Monitoring populations and tracking weather patterns. Monitoring systems may be used in conjunction with public awareness and outreach programs to notify the public when elevated risks are detected (e.g. heat watch warning systems). Infrastructure / Building and construction, infrastructure Technology / projects (e.g. roads, airports, railways), Innovation public works maintenance (e.g. sewage systems, water treatment), crop technology (e.g. seed varieties, irrigation projects), and conservation. Resource Transfer Funding for autonomous adaptation and / Financial research, actions at other jurisdiction Mechanisms levels (e.g. local initiatives), technology / information transfers (including support for domestic autonomous adaptation and international development / aid). Not just a description of how much money the government spends. Review Evaluation of how well integrated climate change perspectives are in existing programs, measure, etc. Makes recommendations for how climate change can be better mainstreamed. Other (Description field) N/A

Variable 8 addresses the question “how are we adapting.” It indicates how far action has progressed from conceptualization to implementation. This variable is designed to be mutually

15 exclusive. Since a single row constitutes a single action there will only be one possible status for each action. In cases where actions consist of multiple components at different stages of implementation, partially completed should be selected. The first category, “recommended,” is intended for types of action categorized as “recommendations” in variable 7. Evaluated programs can be ongoing or finished, but will typically be fully implemented.

8. Status of Recommended A statement that an action is important but no Action indication that steps have been taken to Mutually exclusive implement it and no timeline is presented for implementation. Planned Clear indication that action is being designed, resources are being allocated, and personnel are being assigned. May be described in terms of a timeline for implementation. Partially Complete Action is in the process of being implemented; pieces of the action have already been operationalized. Includes items where various components of the item are at different stages of progress (e.g. one component is planned, another component is completed). Complete (Ongoing) Action has been implemented and will continue to function either to a date beyond the NC reporting date or indefinitively (e.g. established surveillance system, laws passed, infrastructure built). Complete (Finished) Action was implemented and ended prior to the NC reporting date. Evaluated An ongoing or finished action that has been assessed for effectiveness. Indicates that action has been long-running enough to have tangible impacts on government and / or communities. Indeterminate Status of action is unclear from the text. N/A

Variable 9 addresses the question “how are we adapting.” This variable assesses the extent to which adaptation actions are being implemented through existing institutions. The benefits of mainstreaming adaptation as opposed to creation of ‘new and additional resources’ for adaptation are much debated; fear that climate change mainstreaming will divert attention and resources away from development projects is a prominent concern among developing nations (Yamin 2005). This variable will provide an analysis of whether there are differences in the prevalence of mainstreaming across developed and developing nations. The indicator is designed to be mutually exclusive; since a single row constitutes a single action there will only be one possible approach for each action. N/A is used in cases where the type of action is a Policy

16 Recommendation. This is done because each country only gets one Policy Recommendation entry per type of action being recommended. These entries will therefore most frequently contain more than one discrete Policy Recommendation; since it will be impossible to identify which actions are being recommended through mainstreaming or new steps selecting N/A simplifies the coding process.

9. Approach Mainstreamed (Pre- Action integrates climate change perspective Mutually exclusive existing institution) into an existing program, institution, framework, policy, or law. E.g. climate change risks are added to legislation on emergency response protocols. Primary Programs, institutions, frameworks, policies, or laws are created where climate change is the stimulus. Includes actions taken under the umbrella of an existing context (e.g. a climate change department within the ministry of energy would be classified as a new action) Indeterminate Implementation approach is unclear from the text. N/A Type of action is a Policy Recommendation.

Variable 10 addresses the question “who is adapting.” The indicator is not mutually exclusive; select as many actors as participate in the design and / or implementation of an action. The list of possible actors is intended to capture possible participation from both public and private sectors, and from government and non-government institutions. N/A is used in cases where the type of action is a Policy Recommendation. This is done because each country only gets one Policy Recommendation entry per type of action being recommended. These entries will therefore most frequently contain more than one discrete Policy Recommendation; since it will be impossible to identify which actions are being recommended through which action selecting N/A simplifies the coding process.

10. Actor(s) International Global treaty body or agency. E.g. World Not mutually organization / agency Bank, IMF, OECD, UN and its affiliated exclusive agencies (e.g. UNEP), UNFCCC, UNCBD. Regional organization / Supranational regional bodies or agencies. E.g. agency EU, AU, OAS, European Environmental Agency. Government: National Member state of the UNFCCC. Government: Sub- Domestic, sub-national governing unit. Terms national include state, province, territory, department, canton, Lander. Government: Local Community-level governing unit. Includes cities, towns, villages. CSO (global, regional, Voluntary civil society organizations. Includes

17 national, or local) professional organizations (e.g. labour unions, associations, federations), cultural groups, religious groups, sporting associations, advocacy groups (e.g. NGOs). Private sector Business sector groups (e.g. companies) and individuals (e.g. farmers). University / research Non-government centers of research, although group they may receive funding or other support from government bodies. Includes authors of peer-reviewed literature. Other (Description field) Indeterminate Actor involvement is unclear from the text. N/A Type of action is a Policy Recommendation.

Variable 11 addresses the question “who is adapting.” The variable is not mutually exclusive; select as many sectors are participate in the design and / or implementation of an action. In some cases sectoral participation will be identified by the government ministry or type of research group involved in the action. In other cases it can be interpreted from the organization of sections (i.e. section headings) within the NC, or from the kind of vulnerability being addressed.

The list of possible sectors was identified by comparing the organization of national governments across 13 countries: Burundi, Ghana, Namibia, Argentina, Jamaica, USA, Indonesia, Tajikistan, Australia, Netherlands, UK, Israel, and Jordan. There countries were selected to represent the regions included in this country analysis (North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Asia). A current list of government ministries was identified for each country, and sector categories were organized to capture the areas of responsibility represented by each ministry.

11. Sector(s) Emergency management Includes public safety during extreme events. Infrastructure Includes planning, housing, lands, utilities, public works. Excludes coastal infrastructure – see specific sector category below. Health Includes public health planning, clinical services, medical interventions. Education Includes primary, secondary, and tertiary school systems. Human services Includes gender equality, immigration, families, Indigenous groups, social affairs, minority affairs, religious affairs, welfare and social services. Agriculture Includes irrigation, plant / seed technology. Water Water for human consumption and recreation, as well as irrigation for crops. Environment Includes natural resources, public park

18 systems, sustainability, mines, meteorology, geosciences, biodiversity, and conservation. Energy Includes hydropower, electricity. Coastal management Coastal settlements infrastructure. Development Includes international cooperation, development aid, sustainable development, sub-national (e.g. rural). National security Military response to instability / volatility associated with climatic change. May include responses to population displacement, disease transmission, Arctic sovereignty, or resource conflict. Forestry Forest ecosystem health; forest ecosystems used in economic activities. Includes game management. Fisheries Marine / riparian ecosystem health; marine / riparian ecosystems used in economic activities. Transportation Includes road / highway maintenance, air traffic, railroad systems, shipping. Insurance Private sector. Tourism Private sector. Includes recreation. Economy Costs associated with climate change. Includes finance, employment, labour, trade, treasury, industry, livelihoods. Culture / arts / heritage Impacts of climate change on particular sites or practices considered important to group identity. Technology Includes science, research, and innovation. Inter-sectoral Multiple sectors cooperating in an initiative, (Unspecified) but not identified in the report. Other (Description field) Indeterminate Sectoral involvement is unclear from the text. N/A

Variable 12 answers the question “who is adapting.” It identifies the extent to which countries are reporting on the integration of vulnerable populations in adaptation planning, design, and implementation. The impacts literature indicates that the effects of climate change will be unequally distributed not only between countries and regions, but also among population segments. Those groups that already face greater obstacles in accessing and using resources, particularly in regards to disaster preparedness, planning, response, and recovery (Wingate et al 2007), will be differentially effected by climate change. To effectively integrate the needs of all population segments, it is imperative that policy-makers specially consider the situation and needs of vulnerable groups.

19 The categories of vulnerable populations are derived from accepted categories of vulnerability within the public health field. The groups especially tend to face obstacles in terms of economic resources and social isolation.

12. Vulnerable Elderly Individuals age 65 and over. Commonly population(s) referred to as senior populations. Children Individuals age 0 to 18. “Younger populations” insufficient to denote children (may include young adults as well). Chronic / Pre-existing Individuals with persistent physical, sensory, condition or cognitive impairments. Includes individuals with impaired hearing and mobility, and those with persistent disease, such as diabetes, degenerative disease, or a cardiovascular condition. Indigenous groups Self-identified aboriginal groups, native peoples, first people, and tribal groups. Race / ethnicity Individuals and / or groups with a visible minority status. Language Individuals or groups with a minority dialect or language that may have difficulty communicating in a primary language. Nationality Place of origin, ancestry, cultural heritage. Specially refers to individuals with an immigrant or undocumented status. Religion Individuals or groups with a minority religious faith and / or religious expression. Sex / gender Minority status based on sex (male or female- typically female) and / or gender expression (e.g. transgenderism). Sexual orientation Individuals who self-identify as gay, lesbian, bisexual, etc. Social disability Individuals suffering from addiction (e.g. alcoholism, drug addiction). Social position Individuals and / or groups from economically marginalized backgrounds. Lack access to basic services and experience episodes of regular or ongoing resource scarcity. Includes homeless populations, may include rural populations depending on context. Other (Description field) None No vulnerable group identified. N/A

Further Description of Variable 5

20 The categories available in variable 5 were developed based on the findings of Working Group 2 of the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. The IPCC organizes its discussion of impacts and vulnerabilities by sector and by region. The summary tables provided below reflect this approach. The tables present information provided in two boxes within the Technical Summary, individually identifying future impacts and vulnerabilities. The first box identifies impacts and vulnerabilities by sector, and the second box identifies impacts and vulnerabilities by region. The grey column in each table indicates how the impacts and vulnerabilities identified by the IPCC are coded in variable 5.

Note: Mental health is not distinguished from general human health in the IPCC vulnerability summary, but is specifically addressed frequently enough in the National Communications to warrant its own category.

Box TS.5 Main projected impacts for systems and sectors. Taken from Fourth Assessment Report, Technical Summary. Grey indicates vulnerability categories used in the database.

IPCC: Categories of System, IPCC: Description of vulnerability vulnerabilities sector Freshwater Decrease in water volumes in glaciers and Frozen ground resources snow cover, reduced water availability Water quality / quantity and their Increase in runoff and water availability in Runoff management higher latitudes, decrease in mid-latitudes and Water quality / quantity dry tropics Increase in drought areas, increase in Drought precipitation and flood risks Rainfall Floods Increased flood hazards in river basins Floods Decrease in water resources in semi-arid areas Water quality / quantity Increase in people living in water stressed river Water quality / quantity basins Sea level rise increasing salinisation of Sea level rise groundwater and estuaries, decrease in fresh Water quality / quantity water availability Decreased groundwater recharge in water Water quality / quantity stressed areas Higher water temperatures, increased Water quality / quantity precipitation, and longer periods of low flows Rainfall will increase water pollution Uncertain quantity projections of precipitation, Water quality / quantity river flows, and water levels Rainfall Compromised functioning of water Water quality / quantity infrastructure / water management Negative impacts on freshwater systems Water quality / quantity

21 outweigh benefits Changing runoff patterns, affected by increase Runoff precipitation variability and shifting water Rainfall supply / quality and flood risks Water quality / quantity Ecosystems Ecological impacts, species extinction, and Terrestrial ecosystem major biome changes in: tundra, boreal forest, health mountain and Mediterranean-type ecosystems, Marine ecosystem health mangroves, salt marshes, coral reefs, sea-ice Freshwater ecosystem biomes. health Initial positive impacts in NPP in savannas and Fire species-poor deserts, contingent on sustained Extreme events (Other) CO2 fertilization and only moderate change in Drought fire and extreme events (drought) CO2 excluded (as component of climate system, not an impact) NPP increases in high latitudes (migration of Terrestrial ecosystem woody plants), NPP decline in lower latitudes health (ocean, land) Marine ecosystem health Carbon sequestration by taiga expansion may Excluded (as components be offset by albedo changes, wildfire, forest of climate system, not loss, methane losses impacts) Tropical sequestration dependant on land-use Excluded (as components change, likely dominated by cc by 2100 in of climate system, not drier regions impacts) Amazon forests, China’s taiga, Terrestrial ecosystem Siberian/Canadian tundra changing, tropical health forests may experience severe biodiversity loss Low-productivity zones in sub-tropical oceans Marine ecosystem health like to expand, productive polar sea-ice biomes likely to contract Polar species dependent on sea-ice biome Marine ecosystem health likely to experience habitat degradation and losses Loss of coral to bleaching Marine ecosystem health Accelerated release of carbon from carbon Excluded (as components stocks (peatlands, tundra, permafrost, soil) of climate system, not impacts) Intensification / expansion of wildfires Fires Greater rainfall variability likely to affect Freshwater ecosystem inland / coastal wetland species health Surface ocean pH likely to decrease, impairing Marine ecosystem health shell/exoskeleton formation Food, fibre Increase cereal crop / pasture yields in mid and Food quality / quantity and forest high-latitudes, decreased yields in seasonally products dry and tropical regions Increased in people at risk of hunger Food quality / quantity

22 marginally Increased frequency / severity of extreme Food quality / quantity climate events, increased risk of fire, pests, Fires disease outbreak Smallholder and subsistence farmers, Food quality / quantity pastoralists, artisanal fisherfolk at risk of localized impacts Global food production likely to increase to Food quality / quantity 3C, then likely to decrease Forestry production only likely to change Food quality / quantity moderately, production will shift to high- latitude regions Local extinction of particular fish species Food quality / quantity Marine ecosystem health Freshwater ecosystem health Food and forestry trade projected to increase, Food quality / quantity greater dependence on food-import in developing countries Lower response rate of forests to elevated CO2 Excluded (as component of climate system, not impacts) Coastal Increased coastal exposure to cc and sea level Sea level rise systems and rise low-lying Increased coral bleaching and mortality, harm Marine ecosystem health areas to mangroves and salt marshes due to sea level Sea level rise rise Increase sea surface temperatures (SST) Marine ecosystem health resulting in more coral bleaching and mortality Loss of coastal wetlands, salt marshes, and Sea level rise mangroves to sea level rise Marine ecosystem health Increased ocean acidification Marine ecosystem health Greater risks of coastal flooding due to sea Floods level rise and increased storm activity Sea level rise Storms Potential impact can be reduced by adaptation No impact Key human vulnerabilities in low-lying coastal No impact systems (deltas, coastal urban areas, small islands) Greatest increase in vulnerability likely to be No impact in the South, South-East, East-Asia, urbanized coastal locations, small-island regions Committed to some degree of sea level rise Sea level rise beyond 2100 because of inertia in the system Industry, Benefits / costs vary widely by location and No impact settlement scale

23 and society Vulnerability greater in coastal / riverine areas, No impact (sector and areas with economies closely linked to description) climate-sensitive resources Economic impacts will rise with increased Economic extreme weather activity Extreme weather events (Other) Poor communities and households particularly No impact (vulnerable vulnerable due to limited resource access groups description) Economic costs of extreme weather require Economic effective economic and financial risk management Likely to increase equity concerns and No impact pressure on government capacity Urban water systems vulnerability to sea level Sea level rise rise and reduced water availability Water quality / quantity Health Increased food insecurity leading to Food quality / quantity malnutrition, hunger Coastal flooding resulting in larger mortality Floods Increase in heat-related mortality Extreme heat Changing risks patterns of malaria Infectious disease Northward expansion of certain vector-borne Infectious disease disease (e.g lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis) Increase in burden of diarrhoeal disease Food quality / quantity Water quality / quantity Increase in ozone-related mortality / Air quality cardiovascular disease mortality with increases in air pollution concentrations Increased risk of dengue Infectious disease Reduction in cold-related deaths greater than Extreme cold increase in heat-related deaths Extreme heat Box TS.6 The main projected impacts for regions. Taken from Fourth Assessment Report, Technical Summary. Grey indicates vulnerability categories used in the database.

IPCC: IPCC: Description of vulnerability Categories of vulnerabilities Region Africa Stresses likely to be greatest where they co- Food quality / quantity occur with multiple stresses (e.g. poor access to (Health a sector in this case) resources, food insecurity, poor health systems) Increase in arid and semi-arid land Desertification Declining agricultural yields due to drought and Food quality / quantity land degradation, especially in marginal areas Drought (mixed rain-fed, semi-arid systems) Desertification

24 Water stress, runoff increase in East Africa Water quality / quantity (possibly floods), decrease in runoff and drought Runoff in other areas Floods Drought Changes in freshwater NPP affecting food Food quality / quantity supplies, possible reduction in fish yields Species migration, range changes, extinction Terrestrial ecosystem health Degradation of mangroves and coral reefs Marine ecosystem health Sea level rise affecting coastal communities Sea level rise Asia Loss of mangroves to sea level rise, loss of Sea level rise cultivated land to salt marshes Increased risk of flooding in coastal and Floods megadelta regions Tibetan Plateau glacier disappearance Frozen ground Decay of Himalayan glaciers Frozen ground Loss of Asian coral reefs Marine ecosystem health Increase in population affected by water stress Water quality / quantity Availability of freshwater in India will drop, Water quality / quantity increased rain and flash floods resulting in greater proportion of runoff and reduced proportion of groundwater access Risk of hunger high as crop yields increase in Food quality / quantity East and South-East Asia but decrease in Central and South Asia Increased demand for agricultural irrigation in Food quality / quantity (water arid and semi-arid regions for agricultural production) Increased frequency of forest fires in northern Fires Asia Australia, Most vulnerable sectors are natural ecosystems, No impact New water security, coastal communities Zealand Altered ecosystems (invasive species, habitat Marine ecosystem health loss, ecosystem damage): Great Barrier Reef, Terrestrial ecosystem health rain forests, alpine areas Increase water security problems, decline in Water quality / quantity runoff and river flows in Murray Darling Basin Runoff Coastal development at risk from sea level rise Sea level rise and storms Storms Increased wildfires risk Fires Risks to infrastructure from extreme weather Extreme weather events events (frequently exceeded design criteria) (Other) Increased energy demand in summer, risk of Electricity black-outs due to increased temperature Extreme heat Decline in agricultural and forestry production Food quality / quantity due to drought and fire; initial benefits in New Drought Zealand due to increased precipitation Fire Rainfall

25 Growth rates of economically important Economic plantation crops expected to increase Increase in heat-related mortality for elderly Extreme heat individuals Europe Increased risk of extreme winter precipitation in Storms UK / northern Europe Increase in annual runoff in northern Europe, Runoff decrease in southern Europe Increase in river-basin area categorized as Water quality / quantity severely water-stressed Increase in people living in water-stressed Water quality / quantity watersheds Increase in number of people affected by coastal Floods flooding Decline in hydropower potential, strong regional Electricity variability Vulnerability of European flora to extinction Terrestrial ecosystem health Increased crop production in northern Europe, Food quality / quantity decreased production in southern Europe Increase in forested areas in northern Europe, Terrestrial ecosystem health decrease in southern Europe, changes in Fires distribution of tree species increase in forest fire risk in southern Europe Amphibian and reptile species likely to expand Terrestrial ecosystem health range if dispersal range is unlimited Disappearance of small Alpine glaciers, reduced Frozen ground volume in large glaciers Changing summer tourism trends in the Economic Mediterranean and north Unlikely shutdown of Meridional Overturning Marine ecosystem health Circulation but would have huge impact on Food quality / quantity crops, cold-related death, winter transport, Extreme cold economic centers, population migration Economic Migration / conflict Latin Disappearance of inter-tropical glaciers, reduced Frozen ground America water availability and hydropower generation Water quality / quantity Electricity Reductions in rainfall leading to severe water Rainfall shortages Water quality / quantity Increase in people suffering from inadequate Water quality / quantity water supplies Sea level rise and weather extremes like to affect Sea level rise low-lying areas, buildings and tourism, coastal Marine ecosystem health morphology, mangroves, availability of drinking Water quality / quantity water Sea surface temperature increases harming coral Marine ecosystem health

26 reefs and fish stocks Decrease in soil water leading to replacement of Desertification tropical forest with savannas and semi-arid with arid vegetation Increased frequency and intensity of hurricanes Storms in Caribbean Basin Rice yields expected to decline, soybean yields Food quality / quantity likely to increase Number of additional people at risk of hunger Food quality / quantity likely to increase Cattle productivity likely to decline Food quality / quantity Adaptation initiatives being implemented in Food quality / quantity fisheries and agricultural sectors, early warning Floods flood systems being set up New institute to mitigate / prevent impacts from Extreme weather events natural hazards (Other) North Increased destructiveness of coastal storms and Storms America storm surges will increases losses associated Sea level rise with sea level rise Sea level rise and tidal surges / flooding will Sea level rise affect of coastal infrastructure and transportation Storms Floods Severe heatwaves will increase in magnitude in Extreme heat cities where they already occur Daily average ozone levels projected to increase Air quality in eastern US, especially in most polluted cities Decreases in snow pack in western mountains, Frozen ground increase in snow melt, winter rain events, Rainfall flooding Floods Increased demand for water, decrease in water Water quality / quantity supplies Increased forest production, but greater Terrestrial ecosystem health sensitivity to drought, storms, insects Drought Storms Increased aggregate crop yields, but big regional Food quality / quantity variation Impacts on forest through pests, diseases, and Terrestrial ecosystem health fire Fire Increased coastal wetlands loss due to sea level Sea level rise rise, decrease in salt-marsh biodiversity Marine ecosystem health Impacts of climate change likely to be worst for No impact specific groups / regions like indigenous, the poor, elderly in cities, those dependent on narrow resource bases Need to invest in adaptation based on projected No impact future conditions, not past experience

27 Polar Reductions in sea-ice extent, near complete loss Frozen ground Regions of summer sea ice Terrestrial ecosystems Reduced thickness / extent of Arctic glaciers and Frozen ground ice caps, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctica Peninsula glaciers and ice sheet Decrease in northern permafrost Frozen ground Increase in coastal erosion, changes to Terrestrial ecosystem health groundwater drainage systems and ecosystem Erosion disruption due to permafrost melting Frozen ground Spread of forest and tundra, loss of tundra and Terrestrial ecosystem health polar desert Decrease in habitat for migratory birds and Terrestrial ecosystem health mammals (seals, polar bears), changes in species Marine ecosystem health abundance and distribution Encroachment of alien species Terrestrial ecosystem health Reductions in lake and river ice cover, affecting Terrestrial ecosystem health under-ice habitations, ice-jamming / flooding Freshwater warming leading to reductions in fish Freshwater ecosystem health stocks, productivity / distribution of aquatic species Impacts on infrastructure and traditional Traditional lifestyles indigenous ways of life Increase in agricultural and forestry productivity, Traditional lifestyles some benefits and disadvantages to traditional ways of life Increase in large-scale forest fires and insect Fires outbreaks Terrestrial ecosystem health Reduced winter mortality, cardiovascular / Extreme cold respiratory deaths Increased wildlife vulnerability to pests and Infectious disease diseases like tick-borne encephalitis Increase in frequency / severity of Arctic Floods flooding, erosion, drought, permafrost Erosion destruction, public health, water supply, Drought infrastructure Health Water quality / quantity Changes in frequency /type/timing of Rainfall precipitation increasing contaminant loading in Freshwater ecosystem health freshwater systems Adaptation already occurring through resource No impact and wildlife management schemes / behavior Small Sea level rise and increase sea surface Sea level rise Islands temperature will accelerate erosion and harm Marine ecosystem health mangroves and coral reef. Will also have an Erosion effect on desirability as tourist destinations Economic Port facilities likely to face damage and flooding Sea level rise

28 due to sea level rise and cyclone intensity Floods Storms Coastal airports likely to be at risk of inundation, Sea level rise flooding, and damage from erosion Floods Erosion Arctic islands face accelerated erosion due to Erosion permafrost warming and loss of ground ice Frozen ground Reduction in rainfall likely to reduce size of Water quality / quantity freshwater lens Increase agricultural economic costs Economic Invasion of alien species likely to occur in mid Terrestrial ecosystem health and high latitude islands causing losses to Marine ecosystem health biodiversity Increase in disease outbreaks due to vectors and Infectious disease increasing temperature / decreasing water Water quality / quantity availability, as economically harmful Economic Negative effect on tourism sector, need for Economic desalinization treatments to offset water Water quality / quantity shortages Adaptation options likely to be limited and very No impact costly Adaptation can also be achieved with co-benefits No impact for sustainable development

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