Activity V: DELPHI
It has been our experience that one of the greatest inhibitors to good problem solving and decision making is the reluctance of participants to truly share the facts that are relevant to the problem or decision. In some cases people fear that if they are honest, someone will hold this against them. Hence, the real issues never are put on the table and the causes of the problems are not solved.
The Delphi is a technique that has been used to resolve conflicts, to develop forecasts, and to build teams. The purpose of your doing the Delphi is to experience two things:
1) The values that you have are often different than others' values.
2) Are you more "open" with your responses when you are behind the "veil of sulfur" that the oracle at Delphus was behind?
We would also like you to practice:
1) Sending information to people rather than sending data.
2) Assess how people "feel" about an issue.
3) Critiquing a person's ability to persuade.
Delphi I
Present a 2 to 4 page typed argument for why you believe what you believe. You must include one article supporting your position. The article pages do not count as pages of your argument. Present it in a manner that you believe will "affect" people. Turn in 6 copies of this in the envelope provided in class. Do this for the other Delphi assignments. PUT YOUR CODE NAME IN THE UPPER RIGHT OF THE PAPER.
Your presentation should consider both substance and style. The substance is the strength and integrity of your logic and argumentation. The style is the format you choose to capture the attention of your reader with the intent of being persuasive. Remember the different styles of thinking. Read carefully the following pages on format style and the fallacies of reason.
Spring 2002 Activity V - 1 Format Style
We encourage you to use a format style that helps the reader understand your argument and grab their attention. For example,
Major Ideas Should Be Centered and Bolded
Supporting factors should be left justified and bolded
Look at font type, size, style, as well as graphics and color.
What size font do you use? Do you vary the size and the style of the font? Do you use graphics to grab their attention? Do you have color printing capabilities?
Example:
For Legalizing Drugs
Crime is driven by drugs
Your argument on this.
Taxing drugs
Your argument on this.
Spring 2002 Activity V - 2 Fallacies of Reasoning
Use of Vague or Undefined Terms
Some weak or meaningless statements can result from using words that are vague or difficult to define. Disagreements can arise from differing interpretations or connotations of words that are used. (See Snarl words and Purr words below.)
Snarl Words and Purr Words
Words carry emotion. Occasionally the emotional content can vary greatly between individuals or groups. Use of these words can hinder dialog or sidetrack the discussion.
Ad Hominem
An inappropriate appeal to emotion can be an attack against the person, not the issue.
Appeal to Authority
Stating that some respected authority (individual or institution) supports an idea is not sufficient evidence for giving credence to the idea. A testimonial is an example of appealing to this form of reasoning.
Rationalization
Rationalization is giving a plausible reason or explanation, though that is not the real reason.
Generalizations and Over-generalizations
Induction is the process of inferring something more general from something specific. Errors can result from generalizing too broadly. For example, when George Bush and Al Gore talked about their tax programs, they showed examples of plans where families would get huge tax breaks. They assumed the public would think this would happen for them as they made the logic leap from these specific examples to the general public.
Stereotypes
Reasoning based on the perception that some characteristic is true, when in fact it need not be true, is stereotyping.
Spring 2002 Activity V - 3 Cause and Effect
Mistaking that a coincidence or a correlation means that there is an underlying cause between two things is making a cause and effect error. This is a generalization of the Latin post hoc, ergo propter hoc "after this, therefore because of this."
Either/Or Fallacy
Asserting that only two options are possible when there are actually other possibilities is an either/or fallacy. This should remind you of fuzzy logic.
False Analogy
A false analogy is assuming that two things are similar or can be compared when that is actually not the case.
Circular Reasoning
Basing a conclusion on premises that contain the conclusion is circular. This is usually very blatant, but occasionally quite subtle and hard to detect.
Bandwagon/Snob Appeal
Pressuring someone to believe something simply in order to conform or to belong or to appear "better" is snob appeal.
Spring 2002 Activity V - 4 Activity V: Delphi II
Things To Do
1.) Record how strongly your yes or no position was when you wrote Delphi I. If you were absolutely yes, you would mark an X and I on the scale. I indicates where you started.
I
0 50 100
DO THIS BEFORE YOU READ THE PANEL MEMBERS RESPONSES.
2.) Read the responses of each panel member. For two panel members, who will be assigned in class, write a paragraph or two on their ability to present a logical argument. You may want to reference Fallacies of Reasoning . This is the substance part of the argument.
Also, comment on their style of presentation. The definition of information is that it is something that will affect the behavior of the person receiving the information. Is the style used effective? Was it appropriate for this audience?
We often do not see many presentations where the format helped the reader follow your reasoning . Remember the different thinking styles: Verbal, Symbolic, and Spatial.
Are you using the power of the computer to generate a “style” that grabs people? Then once you have got their attention, do you have substance in your presentation?
Write a separate sheet for each panel member. We have included a sample sheet. You will always remain anonymous in your critiquing.
WE DO NOT WANT YOU TO CRITIQUE THE PERSON’S POSITION IN THIS PART, JUST THEIR ABILITY TO PRESENT AN INFORMATIONAL ARGUMENT.
3.) Record what you feel is each panel member’s strength of conviction, after having read their initial position. Example: Code ZZ you thought was a moderate NO
I
0 50 100
Fuzzy Logic: Everything Is a Matter of Degree
Spring 2002 Activity V - 5 Doing this, you are attempting to bring precision to Yes/No situations.
We would like you to think of any encounter you have with a person being a “statistical” process. You have a sample of what they feel and/or think; this makes it statistical. In doing this sampling, you have measurement issues. You are measuring their position.
Accurate - Are they telling the “truth?” (much more difficult issue to “calibrate”) Are you correctly interpreting what they are saying?
Reliable - Will they change (Delphi II)?
Precise - What is the degree of the yes or no response?
We have said the difference between a problem solver and a decision maker, is that the decision maker is a systems thinker and a leader with moral convictions. To be a leader one must understand what is important to the people they want to lead. As you interact with people are you able to “measure” their needs vs. their wants? An old book on decision making, The Rational Manager, says to always establish the Needs vs. the Wants. “Needs issues” are issues that cannot be compromised. “Wants issues” are issues that would be nice to have, but one can live without.
As more and more people are involved in a problem, the leader must know who has what Needs and Wants. Generally one can negotiate on Wants but not on Needs.
The degree of the yes/no response is an attempt to quantity whether this issue is a Need or a Want. How accurate are your perception skills?
4. Delphi II
For Delphi II, hand in (in your envelope) your evaluations of each of the two panel members and the strength of yes/no responses. Place the strength of the yes/no response first, and then the individual critiques. Staple together and include 6 copies.
Spring 2002 Activity V - 6 Your Code______Code of Panel Member______being critiqued
“Substance of Presentation”
”Style of Presentation”
Spring 2002 Activity V - 7 Strength of Yes/No
Code Name: ______
Question:______
Everything is a Matter of Degree
On the scale below put an X at the point that indicates the degree to which you believe the above question is true. Also indicate the degree that you perceive the others on your panel believe in the truth of the question. Keep track of each response; this is to be turned in with Delphi II.
You: ______
0% 50% 100%
Other’s Code Name: ______
______
0% 50% 100%
Other’s Code Name: ______
______
0% 50% 100%
Other’s Code Name: ______
______
0% 50% 100%
Other’s Code Name: ______
______
0% 50% 100%
Other’s Code Name: ______
______
0% 50% 100%
On a separate page type your feelings about whether there have been any movements in people’s opinions and in your opinion. Why or why not?
Spring 2002 Activity V - 8