Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Limited June. 26, 2000

Wednesday, Dec. 01, 2004 CHINA OILSEEDS Volume Oilseeds, Issue 20041201 Inside This Issue Weekly Weather & Prices

1. Weather & Crop Condition 2. Price Trends 3. DEC vs. CBOT Futures Prices

Weather & Crop Conditions

Weather: During the week, it had moderate to large snows in the North China and the Yellow- Huaihe Valley, the temperature in the Northeastern part of China and North China moved back obviously. It had continuously foggy weather in the southern of North China and the Yangtze River. In the future, it shall have light to moderate rains or snows in the eastern of Southwest and the eastern of Northwest.

Table1, Precipitation and Temperatures in China Last Seven Days Unit: mm, centigrade Province Region Precipitation Average Daily Province Region Precipitation Average Daily Temperature Temperature Northeast East Heilongjiang All 2-5 -8~-1 Anhui All 10-20 7~15 Jilin All 2-5 -4~5 Zhejiang All 10-20 9~19 Liaoning All 2-5 -2~8 Central North Hubei All 10-20 8~19 Shandong All Clear 1~9 Hunan All 10-30 8~20 Hebei All Clear 2~16 Jiangxi All 10-20 9~20 Henan All Clear 4~18 Southwest East Guizhou All 10-30 8~18

Page 1 Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Limited June. 26, 2000

Jiangsu All Clear 7~15 Sichuan All 10-20 9~20 Crop Condition

The rapeseed is at seedling stage in the Yangtze River, it is at the end of transplanting stage in large parts of areas, the growth is normal. Table 2, Crop Condition of Rapeseed Dec. 01, 2004 Major Province Acreage Acreage Growing Stage Crop Condition Soil Moisture 2004/2005 2005/2006 1,000 ha 1,000 ha East Zhejiang 225 210 Seedling nursery Normal Normal Jiangsu 725 710 Seedling nursery Normal Normal Anhui 995 960 Seedling nursery Normal Normal Central Hubei 1,250 1,300 Seedling nursery Normal Normal Hunan 910 900 Seedling nursery Normal Normal Jiangxi 635 630 Seedling nursery Normal Normal Southwest Sichuan 790 800 Seedling nursery Normal Normal Chongqing 200 205 Seedling nursery Normal Normal Guizhou 475 500 Seedling nursery Normal Normal North Henan 387 370 Seedling nursery Normal Normal Nation 7,952 7,935 Note: The Crop year of Rapeseed is from June 1 to May 30.

Price trends: (Wednesday)

On the basis of the analysis on spot transaction prices of the national grain & oil wholesale markets on November 30 from the National Grain & Oil Information Center (published on every Tuesday), the prices of oil and oilseeds in this report refer to wholesale prices of various places, the wholesale prices of soymeal, soy oil and rapeseed oil are higher than factory prices.

Soy Oil: during this week, the price rose slightly from last week, and it is likely to be stable with slight rise in the near future.

Rapeseed Oil: during this week, the price fell slightly and it is expected to keep stable in the near future.

3 rd Floor, Bld.No.16 Maizidian Street, North Office Area, Ministry of Agriculture, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100026, China Telephone: 86-10-6419-5216, 86-10-6419-5218/5219 Fax: 86-10-6419-5217 E-mail: [email protected] Page 2 Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Limited June. 26, 2000

Shelled Peanuts & Peanut Oil: during this week, the shelled peanut price fell slightly and the peanut oil price was similar as last week, and the prices are foreseen to keep at these levels in the near future.

Soybeans: during this week, the price fell slightly, and it is likely to rise slightly in the near future.

Soymeal: during this week, the price fell slightly, and it is expected to keep stable in the near future.

Profit Margin of Soybean Crushing in Heilongjiang: during this week, it rose slightly.

Table 3, Major Seed, Oil and Meal Prices in China’s Wholesale Markets Unit: US$/MT 11/30/2004 11/2/04 12/2/03 Crude Rapeseed Oil Nation 744.88 747.29 861.45 Anhui 746.99 746.99 879.52 Hubei 753.01 753.01 915.66 Hunan 753.01 753.01 897.59 Jiangxi 734.94 746.99 824.10 Crude Peanut Oil Nation 1295.18 1301.20 1319.28 Shandong 1180.72 1180.72 1180.72 Pingdu 1325.30 1325.30 1325.30 Soybeans Nation 348.84 345.07 382.70 Heilongjiang 306.99 302.05 340.72 Henan 374.70 325.30 373.49 Jilin 301.20 301.20 361.45 Weihai 378.31 374.70 401.20 Crude Soyoil Nation 762.05 762.05 873.49 Jilin 783.13 783.13 891.57 Tianjin 783.13 783.13 879.52 Soymeal Nation 300.44 304.04 326.10 Henan 301.20 301.20 320.48 Shandong 295.18 295.18 313.25 Shelled Peanut Nation 620.48 620.48 698.80 Henan 578.31 578.31 650.60 Pingdu 602.41 602.41 674.70 Palmoil Nation 641.57 659.34 801.20 Hangzhou 626.51 638.55 771.08 Sichuan 686.75 686.75 831.33 Shanxi 626.51 685.54 819.28 3 rd Floor, Bld.No.16 Maizidian Street, North Office Area, Ministry of Agriculture, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100026, China Telephone: 86-10-6419-5216, 86-10-6419-5218/5219 Fax: 86-10-6419-5217 E-mail: [email protected] Page 3 Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Limited June. 26, 2000

Figure1, weekly Wholesale Prices of Crude Rapeseed & US$/MT Soybean Oil Exchange Rate 1:8.30 950

900

850

800

750

700 3 9 1 2 3 7 9 0 0 8 8 9 0 0 1 1 9 0 / / / / 1 2 1 3 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 / / / 2 / / 3 / / / 6 / / / / / 1 / 1 2 0 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 soybean oil rapeseed oil

Note: (1) The rapeseed oil prices represent average wholesale prices in Anhui, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi. (2) The soybean oil prices represent average wholesale prices in Tianjin and Jilin.

Figure 2, Weekly Wholesale Prices of Crude Peanut Oil US$/MT Exchange Rate 1:8.30 1400 1380 1360 1340 1,319 1,319 1320 1,295 1300 1280 1260 1240 1220 1200 1 3 9 0 0 8 8 9 9 0 2 3 7 9 0 0 1 1 / / / / 1 3 1 2 1 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 3 2 / / / / 3 / / / 6 1 2 / / / / / / / 0 1 1 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 Note: The peanut oil prices represent average wholesale prices in Jinan and Weihai.

Figure 3, weekly Wholesale Prices of Soybean & Soymeal US$/MT Exchange Rate 1:8.30 450 430 410 390 370 350 330 310 290 270 250 6 0 4 9 6 0 1 8 6 0 3 5 6 0 3 0 3 5 1 7 1 9 9 2 / / / / / / 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 3 1 / / / 3 4 / / 6 7 / 8 / / / / / / / / / / / / 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 soybean soybean meal

3 rd Floor, Bld.No.16 Maizidian Street, North Office Area, Ministry of Agriculture, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100026, China Telephone: 86-10-6419-5216, 86-10-6419-5218/5219 Fax: 86-10-6419-5217 E-mail: [email protected] Page 4 Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Limited June. 26, 2000

Figure 4, Weekly Wholesale Prices of Shelled Peanut US$/MT Exchange Rate 1:8.30 760 740 720 699 699 700 672 680 660 640 620 600 6 0 3 0 9 3 6 1 5 8 6 0 3 1 5 9 2 6 0 4 0 1 7 9 / / / / / / 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 3 / / / / / 3 / 4 / / 6 7 / 8 / / / 1 / / / / / / 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Note: The peanut prices represent wholesale prices in Zhengzhou ( Henan) and Weihai ( Shandong).

Figure 5, Weekly Crush Margin of soybeans in Heilongjiang

US$/MT Exchange Rate 1:8.30 60

30 20

-10 3 0 4 3 6 0 1 5 1 6 0 3 7 1 5 9 2 6 0 9 8 9 6 0 / / / / / / 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 3 1 1 2 2 2 1 3 1 1 3 / / / / / / / / / 3 / 4 / 6 7 / 8 / / 1 / / / / 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 1

DCE vs. CBOT Futures Prices

During this week, the soybean price at DCE was similar as last week and the price at CBOT rose slightly. Soybean price at DCE was 65-69% higher than that at CBOT.

During this week, the soymeal price at DCE fell slightly and the price at CBOT also fell slightly. The price at DCE was 54-58% higher than that at CBOT.

3 rd Floor, Bld.No.16 Maizidian Street, North Office Area, Ministry of Agriculture, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100026, China Telephone: 86-10-6419-5216, 86-10-6419-5218/5219 Fax: 86-10-6419-5217 E-mail: [email protected] Page 5 Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Limited June. 26, 2000

Figure,Comparison of Soybean Futures Exchange Prices, at Dalian in China and CBOT US$/MT Unit:Exchange Rate: 1:8.30 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 2 5 7 7 2 3 4 3 9 2 5 0 4 7 9 5 3 9 7 2 1 9 1 9 8 / / / / / / / 2 2 2 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 / 9 / / 1 / / / 3 / 4 / / 6 / / / / 9 / 1 / / / / 8 9 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 9 1 0 1 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CBOT DCE

Figure,Comparison of Soymeal Futures Exchange Prices, at Dalian in US$/MT China and CBOT Unit:Exchange rate 1:8.30 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 4 0 6 1 2 3 8 9 7 1 8 4 9 0 9 5 4 1 7 2 1 6 6 2 2 0 3 / / / / / / / / / 3 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 / 9 / / / / 2 / / 2 / 3 / 4 / / 6 / 7 / 8 / 9 / / / / 8 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 CBOT DCE