AASG Hazards Committee Report for 2016

AASG Hazards Committee Report for 2016 David K. Norman Washington Geological Survey June 2016 Girdwood, Alaska

Introduction This report discusses the status of geologic hazard issues at a national level for the past 12 months spanning June 2015 to June 2016.

There will be several hazard related breakout sessions for this year’s annual meeting in Girdwood, Alaska that will discuss volcanic and earthquakes hazards, ground collapse, environment related hazards and Lidar.

H.R. 4776 – the National Landslide Loss Reduction Act was introduced on 3/17/2016. It was referred to the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. Proposed authorization is for $8,000,000 to support the efforts of state and local government to map and assess landslide hazards. In addition, there is proposed authorization of $10,400,000 to support efforts by institutions of higher education, state, and local governments, and nongovernmental entities to research landslides. The bill attempts to include other ground failures such as sinkhole and ground fissures to broaden the legislation. There have been conversations with Senate staff about developing a Senate version. Beyond that no further action has occurred.

The National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) has not been reauthorized and funding for this important program has dropped off considerably. Reauthorization legislation of NEHRP was introduced in June of 2013 and no further action has occurred. On February 2, 2016 the White House hosted an Earthquake Resilience Summit to highlight how a whole-community approach, including scientists, engineers, public officials, nonprofit entities, government, and private companies, is the best approach for improving resilience to earthquakes and other hazards; and to explore how science and technology can improve our ability to detect and respond to earthquakes in the future. A lot of the day was taken up by presentations on earthquake early warning. The GAO was very interested in this and the potential application to New Madrid.

H.R. 34 -The Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act of 2015 was introduced and passed the House on 1/6/2015. Senate Bill S.533: Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act of 2015 was introduced on 2/23/2015 and was referred to the Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation. A striking amendment removed all language related to tsunamis and substituted language on taxation. This passed and now there is no bill in Congress related to the reauthorization of TWEA.

Landslides As a reaction to the March 22, 2014 SR530 (aka Oso/Hazel) landslide in Washington State that killed 43 people and the May 25, 2014 West Salt Creek landslide in Colorado that killed 3 people there is renewed interest in national legislation to develop a partnership approach to mitigate landslide hazards. Representative Susan DelBene (D-WA) H.R. 4776 – the National Landslide Loss Reduction Act was introduced on 3/17/2016. On 3/22/2016 it was referred to the Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. There have been conversations with Senate staff about developing a Senate version. No further action has occurred. This bill requires the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to establish a national program to identify landslide hazards and reduce losses from landslides. The USGS shall: • develop a national strategy for research on landslides and landslide hazards; • develop and maintain a landslide hazard assessment system and a national landslide hazard inventory database; • in coordination with state geological surveys, conduct federal-state working groups to establish regional priorities for identifying, mapping, and assessing hazards and develop and implement guidelines for geologists and geological and geotechnical engineers; • compile, maintain, and evaluate data on landslide hazard stabilization and reduction of losses and on the nationwide impact of landslides on health and safety, the economy, and the environment; and • in coordination with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through the National Weather Service (NWS), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and state geological surveys, develop and disseminate guidelines and training materials (in coordination with specified entities) for planners and decision makers on the use of the system and reducing losses from landslides. • shall develop and disseminate landslide-related curricula and training modules for state and local officials and emergency managers. The bill establishes an Interagency Coordinating Committee on Landslides, chaired by the USGS Director, which shall: • oversee the planning, management, and coordination of the program; • develop and periodically update a strategic plan and a detailed management plan for the program; and • develop a coordinated interagency budget for such program. The Director shall establish an Advisory Committee on Landslides, which may submit recommendations to the coordinating committee. The Secretary of the Interior shall: (1) make grants, administered through the USGS, to support state and local government efforts to map and assess landslide hazards; and (2) make grants to support efforts by institutions of higher education, state and local governments, and nongovernmental entities to research landslides. Proposed authorization is for $8,000,000 to support the efforts of state and local government to map and assess landslide hazards. In addition there is proposed authorization of $10,400,000 to support efforts by institutions of higher education, state and local governments, and nongovernmental entities to research landslides. The bill attempts to include other ground failure such as sinkhole and ground fissures to broaden the legislation. Nothing more is likely to occur this year on this bill. Earthquakes Due to budget reductions, funding for the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) has lagged. Unlike the USGS, which has line items for its NEHRP-contributing components, none of the other agencies (FEMA, NIST, and NSF) have such an explicit mandate for NEHRP-related activities. The absence of a NEHRP reauthorization may exacerbate this trend. Coupled with federal reductions, many states that have been participating in the program through FEMA State Earthquake Program Assistance funding have been unable to meet the mandatory 50% cash match requirement. This troubling trend has the real potential to reduce or eliminate marked gains in earthquake hazard risk reduction activities over the previous 5 to 10- year period. FEMA is reaching back out to state earthquake programs to determine whether they are now able to meet matching requirements and is now considering direct state funding again. In the interim, FEMA has been funding earthquake consortia such as CREW, WSSPC, CUSEC, EERI, and SCEC, to carry out earthquake hazard mitigation projects on behalf of the states. While reauthorization legislation was introduced in June of 2013 by the Ranking Member of the Technology Subcommittee, Frederica Wilson (D-FL), H.R. 2132, the Natural Hazards Reduction Act of 2013 has not passed. In the case of the NEHRP federal agencies (NIST, FEMA, NSF, and USGS), to date all four federal agencies have continued to fund their parts of the program at some level. NIST is the lead NEHRP agency and has primary responsibility for NEHRP planning and coordination. NIST supports the development of performance-based seismic engineering tools and works with FEMA and other groups to promote the commercial application of the tools through building codes, standards, and construction practices.

NEHRP effectiveness is a perennial issue for Congress. A major earthquake in a populated urban area within the United States would cause significant damage, and in question is how much damage would be prevented by mitigation strategies underpinned by the NEHRP program. A 2015 report issued by the Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction, created by Public Law 108-360, calls for congressional reauthorization of NEHRP, in part to reinvigorate the federal investment and interest in NEHRP and to ensure that earthquake hazard reduction remains a federal priority. Congress has not introduced legislation to reauthorize appropriations or change the NEHRP program in the 114th Congress. FEMA Regions IX and X, the states of Washington, Oregon, and California, and many included cities, counties, and Indian tribes, the province of British Columbia, and the U.S. military have been preparing for a major four-day functional exercise called Cascadia Rising, which will exercise response to a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami generated by the Cascadia subduction zone. The exercise was June 7-10, 2016 and the results were not available as of this writing. However, one shortcoming that will likely be identified is the lack of an effective earthquake clearinghouse for technical data. Earthquake Early Warning Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. Earthquake early warning is being implemented in many locations around the world but is in it’s infancy in the US.

On the west coast of the US, a partnership has been formed to develop and test an early prototype. The main partners include USGS, Cal Tech, University of Washington, University of Oregon, and UC Berkeley. The USGS is coordinating these activities.

On February 2, 2016 the White House hosted an Earthquake Resilience Summit to highlight how a whole-community approach, including scientists, engineers, public officials, nonprofit entities, government, and private companies, is the best approach for improving resilience to earthquakes and other hazards; and to explore how science and technology can improve our ability to detect and respond to earthquakes in the future. The focus of the day was very much on earthquake early warning. The GAO was very interested in this and the potential application to New Madrid. The event was attended by State Geologists Dave Norman (WA) and Richard Ortt (MD).

Tsunami

The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) is administered by NOAA’s National Weather Service and serves as the primary facilitator for comprehensive and consistent tsunami preparedness activities at the coastal community level. The Tsunami Warning and Education Act of 2006 (TWEA) provided the framework and authorization for State, Commonwealth, and Territorial tsunami program funding through the NTHMP to carry out this work. NTHMP grant funding is considered mission critical towards carrying out tsunami warning, mitigation, and preparedness activities within coastal communities – especially those with local subduction zone hazards. In order to sustain the demonstrated progress that has been made by the NTHMP partners in increasing tsunami preparedness, a reauthorization of TWEA with ensuing appropriations is paramount. In the absence of appropriate funding for State tsunami programs, either through reauthorization or through internal NOAA prioritization, life safety for coastal residents will be in jeopardy and increasingly vulnerable to future tsunami hazards, both from inevitable local and distant source tsunamis.

The NTHMP continues to provide the perfect platform for State and Federal tsunami programs to coordinate and share best practices about new and ongoing tsunami preparedness projects, including new research for the east and gulf coast states. These tsunami programs work closely together and with other physical and social science experts to ensure that warning, mitigation, awareness, and preparedness activities and messaging are done in a consistent manner nationally. The tsunami programs that are a part of the NTHMP have been able to substantially improve the products and services they provide to coastal communities. It has continued for several years past its expiration and likely will continue in some form without reauthorization. Congress has either explicitly funded it or it has continued through continuing resolution. Representative Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR) introduced H.R. 34 -The Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act of 2015. It passed the House without amendment on 1/7/2015 HR 34 would reauthorize the Tsunami Warning and Education Act through FY2017. The bill has not passed the Senate. The bill: Consolidates separate tsunami warning systems for the Pacific and Arctic Oceans and for the Atlantic Ocean into a single warning system. Requires the system to support international tsunami forecasting and warning efforts. Requires the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to support or maintain tsunami warning centers to support the national warning system and develop uniform operational procedures for the centers. Requires warning centers to utilize a range of models to predict tsunami arrival times and flooding estimates, and maintain a fail-safe warning capability and an ability to perform back-up duties for each other. Requires the National Weather Service to coordinate with the centers. Modifies the tsunami hazard mitigation program to provide for: (1) technical and financial assistance; (2) activities to support the development of regional hazard and risk assessments; and (3) dissemination of guidelines and standards for community planning, education, and training products, programs, and tools. Expands the tsunami research program, including by: (1) requiring the program to develop the technical basis for validation of tsunami maps, models, and forecasts; and (2) authorizing NOAA to develop a pilot project for near-field tsunami forecast development for the west coast's Cascadia region. Removes a requirement that NOAA operate an International Tsunami Information Center to improve preparedness for Pacific Ocean nations. Directs NOAA to: (1) designate an existing working group to serve as the Tsunami Science and Technology Advisory Panel to provide advice on matters regarding tsunami science, technology, and regional preparedness; and (2) continue to convene a coordinating committee to assist in the national tsunami hazard mitigation program.

Senator Maria Cantwell (D-WA) introduced S. 533: Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act of 2015 on 2/23/2015 but has not passed out of the Senate. S. 533 would:  Advance new research related to improving tsunami detection, forecasting, notification and response;  Enhance tsunami preparedness for ports and harbors by directing the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program to evaluate and recommend procedures for communication and response plans;  Ensure supercomputing resources are available for tsunami forecast models and that guidelines and metrics for evaluating and improving tsunami models are disseminated;  Direct NOAA to conduct a readiness assessment for areas at-risk for a near-shore tsunami such as the Cascadia fault;  Require tsunami warning centers to work with local weather forecasting offices to ensure timely delivery of warnings.

In the 114th Congress, H.R. 34, the Tsunami Warning, Education, and Research Act of 2015, which the House passed by unanimous consent on January 7, 2015. Both H.R. 34 and S. 533 would authorize appropriations for the tsunami program of $27 million per year. However, H.R. 34 would provide a three-year authorization through FY2017, whereas S.533 would extend the program’s authorization for six years, from FY2016 to FY2021.

H.R. 34 and S. 533 would amend the Tsunami Warning and Education Act and authorize appropriations for the NTHMP through FY2017 (H.R. 34) or through FY2021 (S. 533). Authorization for the program’s appropriations in P.L. 109-424 expired in FY2012. Both bills apparently would not make fundamental changes to the NTHMP, but they would broaden the program to include an additional focus on tsunami research and outreach, among other alterations. However, a striking amendment removed all language related to tsunamis and substituted language on taxation. This passed and now there is no bill in Congress related to the reauthorization of TWEA.