Bursaries for Scientific Research

BURSARIES FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH

Application Form

2006 / 2007 I. INVESTIGATION TEAM

A. Project Leader

Identification

Name: Dr. Roger Nelson Date of Birth: 10 March 1940 Place of Birth: Broken Bow, Nebraska, USA Nationality: USA Home address: 196 Valley Road Post Code: 08540 City: Princeton, NJ Country: USA Telephone: 1 609 924 4875 Mobile: 1 201 874 2646 Fax: 1 609 924 4875 E-mail: [email protected]

Affiliated Institution

Institution: Princeton University, Retired; Global Consciousness Project (GCP) Appointment: Director, GCP; Extended Faculty, Institute of Noetic Sciences Address: 196 Valley Road Post Code: 08540 City: Princeton, New Jersey Country: USA Telephone: 1 609 924 4875 Fax: 1 609 924 4875 E-mail: [email protected] URL of Project: http://noosphere.princeton.edu Financial Management: Institute of Noetic Sciences

- 2 - Attention Marilyn Schlitz 101 San Antonio Road Petaluma, CA 94952, USA

- 3 - Curriculum vitae

NAME AND ADDRESS Roger D. Nelson 196 Valley Road, Princeton, NJ 08540 1 609 924 4875 Email: [email protected]

PERSONAL Born 1940, Broken Bow, Nebraska Married 1967 to Reinhilde Luedtke One son, Gregory, born 1969

EDUCATION Ph.D. Experimental Psychology, New York University, 1972 Research Fellow, Columbia University, 1970-1972 B.A. University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, 1962 Psychology, Mathematics, Physics

EMPLOYMENT 1997 - Present: Director, Global Consciousness Project 1980-2002: Princeton University, Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research 1972-1980: Johnson State College, Johnson Vt., Tenured Professor 1963-1966: U.S. Army Intelligence, Helmstedt, West Germany, NATO Liaison

PROFESSIONAL AFFILIATIONS Alternative Therapies in Health and Medicine, Advisory Board American Association for the Advancement of Science American Psychological Association

- 4 - NIH Office of Alternative Medicine, Consultant Parapsychological Association, Board of Directors Society for Scientific Exploration, Councillor

B. Project team

Researcher 1 Name: Roger Nelson Academic Degrees: BA, PhD, Experimental Psychology Institutional Affiliation: Princeton University, Retired Appointment: Director

Researcher 2 Name: Peter Bancel Academic Degrees: BS, Physics, Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME, USA; PhD, Physics, University of Pennsylvania. Philadelphia, PA, USA. Institutional Affiliation: GCP Analysis Project, Paris, France Appointment: Analysis Analyst

Researcher 3 Name: Paul Bethke Academic Degrees: MS Computer Science Institutional Affiliation: Self Employed Appointment: Programming Consultant, Windows OS and Networking

Researcher 4 Name: Greg Nelson Academic Degrees: MS Computer Science Institutional Affiliation: Princeton Gamma Tech, Princeton, NJ, USA Appointment: Programming Consultant, Linux OS, Database, Networking

Researcher 5

- 5 - Name: Academic Degrees: Institucional Affiliation: Appointment:

- 6 - II. RESEARCH PROJECT

Monitoring Global Consciousness: Measurement Enhancement and Parameter Refinement

Summary

The Global Consciousness Project (GCP) is an international experimental collaboration established to study the interaction of collective human consciousness and the environment. The project maintains a network of physical Random Number Generators (RNGs) located at widely distributeddifferent sites around the world. Data trials from the RNGs are collected continuously and archived to a database via the Internet. The GCP network has been in operation since August 1998 and currently comprises over 65 random sources.

The database of synchronized, random trials is used to investigate mind-matter interactions on a global scale. The project hypothesizes that the emergence of collective attention at the time of major world events will correlate with deviations from chance expectation in the variance of the network data-stream. These anomalous correlations operationally define what the project refers to as Global Consciousness. An on-going, 8-year experiment to test this hypothesis finds a highly significant p-value (~10-6) for periods corresponding to 209 pre- determined global events.

This proposal is to fund a two-year program to implement a major enhancement of the GCP data network and initiate a refinement of the operational definition of Global Consciousness. Our goal is to increase the sensitivity of the network capabilities and refine statistical parameters used to measure and model the effect. An integral aspect of the proposal entails a simultaneous upgrade of the database structure to include parallel data sequestration. This will extend experimental design capabilities to include exploratory analysis and hypothesis testing on parallel datasets (data-splitting).

These enhancements are necessary to address fundamental questions raised by the global mind-matter correlations. Answers will bear on the nature of the interactions and are essential to an understanding of the effect. Three network attributes of primary importance have been targeted: data bandwidth, temporal resolution, and spatial distribution.

- 7 -  Increase of Data Bandwidth Data trials in the current network are synchronized to one-second cycles. The data cycle includes a 900 millisecond latency period to iensure proper synchronization of the RNGs, during which no data areis collected. Since the conception of the project in 1997, internet time synchronization protocols have significantly improved. We estimate that it is now feasible to increase the data acquisition rate by up to 5 times. It is thus possible to exploit the latency in order to increase the data acquisition rate by up to 5 times. This Implementation will entail software modification at the server and the remote RNG nodes, and design modifications of the database for the data sequestration. In essence, the network will be upgraded to produce parallel, inter-digitated datasets with structure identical to the existing database, while providing up to a five-fold increase in data available to analysis.  Increase of Temporal Resolution Consecutive trials currently occur at one-second intervals. The bandwidth modification will allow access to trials separated by as little as 100 milliseconds. This will increase the trial-to-trial time resolution of the data by nearly a factor of ten and permit the measurement of correlations on a much finer timescale than is presently possible. A testing period of several months will be necessary to assure the time-stamping precision and network synchronization of the upgrade.  Network Distribution and Deployment The project will undertake an in-depth study of the complex question of the effect’s distance and geographical distribution. The A singular feature of the GCP network is its ability to measure coherent deviations across geographically distributed RNGs. Importantly, a detailed analysis of the measured effect indicates that it is driven by significant correlations between the RNGs. This is a unique finding in parapsychological (psi) research and may be the first experimental evidence of a consciousness field. To investigate this key issue, we will use Monte Carlo techniques to address the dependence of effect size on the number of RNG nodes and their geographical density and distribution. In addition to the fundamental nature of the study, a significant benefit will be to inform deployment strategies for future networks.

Project Background and Conception

Project Background An extensive body of research using RNGs has demonstrated that aspects of human consciousness correlate with subtle but measurable processes in the physical world (Radin & Nelson; 1989, 2003). In particular, periods of

- 8 - conscious human intention have been shown to correlate significantly with statistical deviations in RNG data. This effect has been reported in experiments that use RNGs as targets of human intention, as well as in situations where intention is not directed at the target RNG. The non-intentional RNG studies (termed “Field-REG”) involve monitoring groups of people experiencing a strong resonance of feelings or attention. Results indicate that correlations of coherent group consciousness and RNG data can occur independently of any group awareness or intention regarding the experiment (Nelson, et al.; 1996, 1997; Nelson & Radin, 2003).

The Global Consciousness Project extends the research on group consciousness to global populations and distances. by studying the correlations of a worldwide RNG network with events of global importance. The project maintains a worldwide RNG network and hypothesizes The hypothesis of Global Consciousness states that deviations from chance expectation will occur in the RNG data from the world-wide RNG network around the time of "global events". Global events are significant news events or celebrations which focus the attention of large numbers of people, such as the 2005 London terrorist bombings, the Asian tsunami, or New Year’s Eve.

The experiment has been in continual operation since 1998 and has logged 209 formal, pre-specified global events. The event periods comprise about 1% of the total database. Currently, the cumulative analysis (Figure 1) of 209 formal, pre-specified global events supports the GCP hypothesis, with chance odds greater than 500,000 to one (Z-score = 4.62). The same analysis, when applied to the database as a whole by random re-sampling, produces values within theoretical expectation of the null hypothesis. Thus we find that the anomalous statistical deviations are only associated with the relatively short periods around global events.

- 9 - Figure 1: Composite result for 209 tests over 8 years of accumulating evidence for the GCP hypothesis

The same analysis, when applied to the database as a whole by random re- sampling, produces values within theoretical expectation of the null hypothesis. Thus we find that the anomalous statistical deviations are only associated with the relatively short periods around global events.

The GCP network is implemented as a global, internet-based data acquisition system. As of August 2006, the network comprises over 65 nodes, located around the world in 30 countries (Figure 2). Each node consists of a physical RNG connected to a computer running software to collect data at a rate of one sample trial per second. The data are recorded locally and then sent for

- 10 - archiving to continuously on a central server in Princeton, NJ, USA. The network's random sourcesRNGs are shielded from electromagnetic and other environmental influences and have been rigorously tested to insure unbiased randomness and stability. Currently, the data accumulate at the rate of over 20 megabytes per day. The full database comprises more than 12 gigabytes.

The GCP network of continuous, synchronized RNG data-streams is uniquely suited to the study of Global Consciousness .constitutes a unique instrument in psi research. It permits the measurement of spatial and temporal correlations not possible in single-RNG experiments and is amenable to the use of powerful analytical tools techniques such as signal averaging techniques. These features are uniquely suited to the study of Global Consciousness.

Figure 2: The GCP RNG network is distributed around the world as shown by the bright dots.

The GCP network of continuous, synchronized RNG data-streams is uniquely suited to the study of Global Consciousness. It permits the measurement of spatial and temporal correlations not possible in single-RNG experiments and is amenable to the use of powerful analytical techniques such as signal averaging.

The current results and conclusions of the GCP can be summarized as follows: Results:  The cumulative experiment z-score is > 4.6 (pvalue < 2x10-6).  Experimental analyses applied across the entire database show no anomalous deviations.  There are no outlier events; the average z-score per event is 0.3.  The effect is driven by anomalous correlations between RNGs in the network, not the individual RNG statistics.

- 11 - Conclusions:  There is strong evidence for operationally defined global consciousness.  The effect is too small to see in single events; 50 to 100 events are needed for reliable significance estimates.  The effect is due to extended, synchronized network deviations.

These conclusions indicate that further understanding will require studying that we need to study the structure of network correlations. The modest effect size is a difficulty which must be addressed. We propose to approach solve this problem by increasing the sensitivity of the network.

There have been several critical assessments of the GCP (Scargle, 2002; May&Spottiswode, 2001; Bancel, 2002). However, these critiques need fail to properly consider the project’s results. Chief objections have argued that:

 The hypothesis is too broadly stated to provide a valid test of global consciousness.  Historic events, such as the September 11, 2001 terror attacks,, should, but do not , stand out unequivocally from less important events.  Some kind of collective activity is nearly always happening on the planet, which renders the selection of global events ambiguous or arbitrary.

The GCP cumulative result is indeed valid since events are always pre- determined before data examination. A misunderstanding arises since because the formal experiment is not a hypothesis test in the strict sense of defining does not define a simple hypothesis and a confidence level;. instead it looks for convergent evidence in a replication paradigm. At our current level of understanding, it is Given that global consciousness is an entirely new research proposition, we find unreasonable it is inappropriate to formulate hypotheses too narrowly at this stage. Given that global consciousness is an entirely new research proposition, we find with J. Searle and others in mainstream consciousness studies, that it is important “not to overdefine the topic ahead of investigating it ... for at the start a common sense definition serves to target the direction of the research” (Freeman, 2003). The purpose of this proposal, however, is to help refine hypotheses so that simple hypotheses can be stated and tested.

The other objections merely indicate that the network is not sufficiently sensitive to measure what one might expect, given the general hypothesis we propose plausible consequences of the hypothesis. We agreeIt is the case that

- 12 - tThe network is neither able to cannot unambiguously detect unambiguously a single, global momentous events, noror to distinguish detect lesser minor instances of collective consciousness which do not simultaneously effect the entire network. These observations rightly highlight the need of to upgradeing the network capabilities. Based on an extensive analysis of the database, this proposal provides concrete steps to increase the network sensitivity and resolution.

One further objection that might be made is that the experiment cannot distinguish global consciousness from experimenter psi. The “experimenter effect” objection, of course, applies to any psi investigation and can ultimately only be resolved by Occam’s razor considered in the light of experimental research such as is proposed here. We expect that convergent evidence from well-formed analytical questions will ultimately resolve this difficult question.

Project Conception Analysis is constrained by the small average event z-score, which necessitates hundreds of events in order to adequately test hypotheses. For example, power analysis shows that a straightforward replication of the experiment at a 99% significance level and with a power of 80% requires more than 110 events, or 4 to 5 years of data accumulation. An oObvious solutions is are to increase the data acquisition rate and improve statistical tests. Four preliminary analyses have been used to evaluate these approaches. They are:This approach is supported by a series of secondary analyses. They indicate that parameter refinement and an increased data rate are likely to yield greater measurement sensitivity. Briefly, the independent analyses include:  A generalized statistic based on standardized network statistic the formal experiment (the netvar, for network variance).  An independent, second-order netvar statistic (the covar).  TheA netvar 1-second autocorrelation (in composite network statistics).  Correlation of of effect size the netvar with the data rate (number of RNG nodes).

The analyses indicate that data rate and statistic enhancements are indeed likely to improve measurement sensitivity. Results are summarized in the table below . (Z-scores are cumulative values over all events of the formal experiment. In each case, theoretical calculations have been confirmed

 . Z-scores are cumulative values over all events of the formal experiment. In each case, theoretical calculations have been confirmed empirically by re-sampling from the entire database. The calculation of the data rate correlation is possible because the data rate has gradually changed over time as RNGs have been added to the network.

- 13 - empirically by re-sampling from the entire database. The calculation of the data rate correlation is possible because the data rate has gradually changed over time as RNGs have been added to the network.).

Analysis Z-score Pvalue ConjectureIndication Data rate Stronger effect for 1.6 .05 Correlation higher data rates Short-time Autocorrelation 1.7 .04 correlations Inter-RNG correlations Netvar 4.2 0.00001 First-order statistic Inter-RNG correlations Covar 2.7 0.003 Second-order statistic Netvar/Data_rate 1.6 .05 Stronger effect for Correlation higher data rates Netvar 1.7 .04 Short-time correlations Autocorrelation

The data rate and autocorrelations suggest that greater sensitivity can be attained by collecting more data at finer time resolutions. This is consistent with the sensible intuition to increase the data acquisition rate. While the netvar necessarily reproduces the formal result, the other analyses indicate directions for improving the network and analysis. The netvar/data_rate correlation is consistent with the sensible intuition to increase data acquisition. The autocorrelation, which is significant only at a lag time of 1-second, indicates that a shorter time interval between trials is desirable. The netvar and covar, which have similar structureindependently attain significance and have similar structure. , indicateThis suggests that more powerful test statistics are possible, and that the that the database structure characterstructure of the database timing should be preserved. The implications for upgrading the network upgrading and parameter analysis are as follows:

Network Upgrade The network currently produces a one time-stamped trial sum of 200 random bits from each RNG once per second. The 1-second data cycle consists of a short accumulation period followed by a latent period to allow for network synchronization. The accumulation period is short because the RNGs produce bits at a rate is much faster than 200 bits/sec. The data cycle for one second is represented schematically below:

1 Second

- 14 - Data Latency

D Data acquisition: 200-bit trial

L Latency period The network was designed to provide reliable sychronization synchronized trials when it was conceived in 1997. Improvements in computer and internet time synchronization protocols allow us to exploit the latency period in order to increase the number of accumulated trials per second. We will can increase the acquisition rate while maintaining compatibility with the existing database. The upgrade will thus allowprovide for one additional, parallel database for each trial added to the data cycle. The design considerations are:

 Acquire new trials in the latency period  Minimize inter-trial interval for autocorrelation sensitivity  Direct added trials to parallel, sequestered databases

The final data rate of the upgrade will depend on the details of the local network nodes, which include a variety of computers, operating systems and internet routings. A preliminary review indicates we can achieve a minimum increase of five trials per second. Maintain 200-bit trials Maintain 1-second acquisition cycle Maintain identical structure for each sequestered database Acquire trials in the latency period to increase trials/sec Minimize inter-trial latency interval for autocorrelation sensitivity Direct added trials to parallel, sequestered databases Include a buffer latency to assure synchronization Implement synchronization and time-stamp controls for the network

The final data rate of the upgrade will depend on the details of the local network nodes, which include a variety of computers, operating systems and internet routings. A preliminary review indicates we can achieve a miniumum increase of the trial rate from one to five trials per second. Minimizing the latency will depend on the precision of network synchronization and the network’s geographical distribution. The schematic below shows the data cycle for a hypothetical case in which the trial rate per second increases threefold. Trials labelled D2 and D3 are directed to separate, sequestered databases by the network server when the data is archived. Note the greatly reduced inter-trial latency, L.

- 15 - 1 Second D1 L D2 L D3 Buffer

Parameter Analysis The parameter analysis seeks to determine how the effect depends on database parameters such as data rate, time resolution and geographical node distribution. The goal is to provide input for theoretical modelingmodelling and to develop valid statistics with enhanced effect sizes. We will:  propose a two-fold approach: TTtest our preliminary conjectures using the upgraded network.  and Aanalyzse the existing database to study the distance dependence of network correlations. at the RNG level.

1. Database tests The two-year project will devote six months to implementing the upgrade and 18 months to data acquisition and analysis. Over the acquisition period we expect to identify approximately 30 new global events. The parallel databases (D1, D2, D3, etc.) will be used to calculate cumulative test scores over the new events. We will focus on the The scores will then be combined to give a final score representative of the entire upgraded database (with the 1-second time resolution of the individual databases, D1, etc.). These combined scores will be compared to the scores of the legacy database (D1) in order to address the following questions: preliminary tests outlined above:

 Does the netvar effect size increase with data rate?  Are the covar and 1-second autocorrelation confirmed as valid statistics? The test significance level will be set at 0.05. The parallel databases will then be combined to a single database with high time resolution. Tests of the netvar, covar and autocorrelation will respond to these questions:  Does the autocorrelation increase at shorter time scales?  Do the netvar and covar effect sizes increase when the data is are blocked at 1-second (ie, blocked over sub-second trials within the data acquisition cycle)

2. Database analyses

- 16 - Here we ask questions that provide a foundation for major steps toward theory and explanation in parapsychology and psi research. We address the field structure of global consciousness and focus on the role of inter-node distances. The analysis will calculate the distribution of the event-based experiment as a function of RNG-RNG distance. The goal is to see if effect sizes diminish for distant RNGs or if the effect is entirely independent of distance.

Our investigation of distance dependence will assess the question by calculating the distribution of event results in the netvar measure as a function of mean RNG location and inter-RNG distance. An outcome showing uniform distribution would imply no distance dependence. A non-uniform distribution can be studied to determine a length scale for the global consciousness field.

The importance of this point must be emphasized. A distance-independent effect would imply that global deployment is irrelevant since the same effect could be measured if all RNGs were grouped at the same location. Understanding distance dependence, on the other hand, would have enormous implications for deployment strategies as well as for fundamental modelling of the phenomenon.

Our investigation of distance dependence will assess the question by calculating the distribution of event results of the netvar as a function of mean RNG location and inter-RNG distance. An outcome showing uniform distribution would imply no distance dependence. A non-uniform distribution can be studied to determine a length scale for the global consciousness field. An analysis of the exitsting database will address two fundamental issues related to the concept of a consciousness field. (We stress here that it is prudent to consider such a field as phenomenological – merely descriptive of the data. We resist any tendency to Tthinking of the field as having physical properities as beingis premature.)

The first issue question addresses the degree of ‘entanglement’ inherent in the measured effect. Current analyses suggest that the measured correlations arise from truly synchronized outputs between the RNGs. An alternate possibility is that a consciousness field effectsaffects RNG output probabilities only locally, independently of the rest of the network. In this scenario, the local RNG deviations would only mimic a deeper correlation, such as is suggested by the netvar result. The two cases have dramaticlydramatically different consequenecesconsequences for model building. In the first, a consciousness field is associated with the network as a whole, and in the second case, the field is associated with RNGs only locally.

- 17 - We can investigate this analytically by using the netvar, covar and autocorrelation, which are network-wide statistics, to constrain models of the individual RNG statistics. A simple local field which reproduces both the RNG and network statistics would might be favored preferred because of its relative simplicity. However, if a local model were unsuccessful or unduly complicated, it would suggest that more subtle interactions should be considered.

The second fundamental issue question asks whether there is evidence for a field structure related to inter-node distances. The analysis will calculate the distribution of the event-based experiment as a function of RNG-RNG distance. The goal is to see if effect sizes diminish for distant RNGs or if the effect is entirely independent of distance. The importance of this point can be easily overlookedmust be emphasized. A distance-independent effect would imply that global deployment is irrelevant since the same effect could be measured if all RNGs were grouped at the same location. Understanding distance dependence, on the other hand, would have enormous implications for deployment strategies as well as for fundamental modelling of the phenomenon.

We propose a preliminaryOur investigation of distance dependence. We will assess the question by calculating the distribution of event results of the netvar as a function of mean RNG location and inter-RNG distance. An outcome showing uniform distribution will would imply no distance dependence. A non- uniform distribution can be studied to determine a length scale for the global consciousness field.

This and the aforementionedSuch analyses require a fast computer workstation, primarily due to the need of calculating empirical probability distributions directly from the database by bootstrap and re-sampling techniques.

[all the other stuff] [PROJECT HISTORY NAME DROP BROUGHTON, RADIN BIERMAN MAY VARGOLIS WALKER] Project Background and Conception - ctd.

- 18 - Objectives

Network and database upgrade:  Increase the data rate of the GCP network.  Increase the database time resolution.  Implement sequestered parallel databases.

Network upgrade assessment:

- 19 -  Assess the impact of increased data rate and time resolution on the netvar, covar and autocorrelation test statistics. Database analysis:  Determine the functional dependence of inter-RNG distance on the Global Consciousness effect.

Methodology

Network upgrade Each node in the GCP network consists of custom data acquisition software, a RNG hardware device attached to the computer serial port and an Internet connection. Data trials are acquired and time-stamped once per second at each RNG. Periodically, the software assembles the data into a packets which are sent via the Internet to the Princeton server for archiving. The data acquisition begins at the start of each second, as read from the local computer clock.

Two commercial hardware RNGs (Mindsong and Orion) are used in the network. They have different data rates and are capable of producing 12 and 38 data trials/sec, respectively. Due to timing considerations, the network was designed to acquire one trial/sec, which leaves considerable unused data

- 20 - capacity. Improved internet timing and faster computers now make faster data rates feasible.

Because of the excess data capacity, faster data rates can be achieved by software changes alone. The 1-second cycle will be modified to create the data time-stamp and initiate a second cycle of five 150 msec trial acquisitions per second. A latency of 250 msec at the end of the timing cycle will insure timing integrity during periods of high processor demand at the node computers (the GCP software runs in the background on the homelocal computers volunteered by GCP collaborators). This design affords a five-fold increase in the data rate and a seven-fold improvement in the time resolution, slightly below the full network capacity. Testing will determine whether the full capacity of ten-fold increases in trial rate and resolution are feasible.

The upgrade will be tested first in-house on a Linux system before being ported to the Windows operating system. A test period on a set of sample hosts will be conducted before installing the upgrade across the network.

The server software will be modified to read and parse multiple trials for each second of data from each node. Parsed trials will be sequestered in separate databases. The project will continue its policy of open data access for one database. The other sequestered databases will be released at periodic intervals (i.ee.g., annually).

As a major improvement of the project’s accessibility, the database will be ported from its current custom format to MySQL. This will greatly facilitate use both for GCP analysis and for independent researchers who wish to use the freely available database. The database archiving will also be improved to include automatic data normalization and quality control.

Database analysis Our primary result gives a significant p-value of 10 -6 against the null hypothesis for global events and measures no significance for thenon-event control periods in the remaining 99% of the database which lies outside event periods. It can be shown that the significant result is equivalent to measuring an anomalous deviation in the average pair correlations of the RNGs. Because the RNGs are distributed around the world, this raises the question of how the effect depends on distance. Do nearby RNGs show a greater correlation than distant ones? We have mentioned that a distance independent effect would imply that geographic distribution is irrelevant and that similar effect sizes would be measured if all RNGs were situated at one location. Conversely, an understanding of the

- 21 - dependence on RNG – RNG separation would have major implications for network deployment.

A related question is whether regional events (such as a New Year’s celebration in the western United States the celebration of Kumbh Mala in northern India as opposed to a global news event such as the Sept. 11, 2001 terror attacks) effectaffect RNGs globally or only regionally.

Both of these questions can be addressed by studying the RNG pair correlations, represented as the products of individual trial values. This complex problem is complicated by two factors:  The geographical distribution of the network has changed over time as new RNG nodes have been brought online.  The correlation statistic contains over 4 billion data elements and 2000 distance parameters. This puts considerable demands on computational design and capacity.

We intend to establish a basis for understanding these questions during the course of the project. Equipment needs and analysis procedures are presented below.

Equipment  Computer workstation o Dual Xeon Core2 processors o 64-bit processing o 4 GB RAM o 500 GB Hard disk  Mathematica computing environment o 64-bit version o Professional licence (renewal)

Analysis Procedures 1. Direct evidence for distance dependence. a. Reduce the event set from 209 to 150 events in order to optimize the effect size. Because event z-scores are small, a simple ranking by z-score is not sufficient. This step will involve an extensive study of event parameters in order to optimize event selection. b. Create database subsets with constant RNG distributions. It will be possible to make data sets with 20, 30 and 40 RNG nodes extending over 6, 5 and 4 continuous years, respectively.

- 22 - c. Calculate correlations for first and second order statistics (the netvar and covar) over all pairs. Perform correlation calculations of these distributions with RNG – RNG distance. d. Repeat (c) for secondary event sets not in the formal experiment. We have identified 3 candidates: i. 84 New Year’s Eve celebrations in populous time zones. ii. 80 major earthquakes occurring near populated regions. iii. 2002 and 2006 World Cup games.

2. Evidence for regional response. a. Record the time evolution of pair correlations by blocking the calculations of (c) above into 1-minute intervals. b. Group pairs geographical region. c. Investigate the distribution moments and time autocorrelations of the groupings for evidence persistent regional effects. d. Compare with the complement groupings of RNG pairs across distant regions. e. Compare results with qualitative rankings of events as regional or global.

3. Confirmation of results by re-sampling analysis. a. The calculations above will be compared to theoretical expectation for standard normal statistics. b. The validity of theoretical expectation values will be tested by repeating analyses 1) and 2) on the entire database via random re- sampling. This will increase the computation time by 100 – 1000 times. The fast workstation described above will be adequate for these computing requirements.

- 23 - Methodology - ctd.

- 24 - Bibliography

Bancel, P. (2003) Evaluation of the Global Consciousness Project. An independent, commissioned evaluation of the GCP results and methodology for the Institute of Noetic Sciences.

Nelson, R. D. (2001). Correlation of global events with REG data: An Internet- based, nonlocal anomalies experiment. Journal of Parapsychology, 65, 247– 271.

Gershenfeld, N. (2000). The Nature of Mathematical Modeling , Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Freeman, A. (2003). As in Consciousness: A Guide to the Debates. Santa Barbara: ABC-CLIO Press.

Bierman, D. J. (1996). Exploring correlations between local emotional and global emotional events and the behavior of a random number generator. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 10, 363–374.

Blasband, R. A. (2000). The ordering of random events by emotional expression. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 14, 195–216.

Rowe, W. D. (1998). Physical measurements of episodes of focused group energy. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 12, 569–583.

Nelson, R. D., Bradish, G. J., Dobyns, Y. H., Dunne, B. J., & Jahn, R. G. (1996). FieldREG anomalies in group situations. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 10, 111–142.

Nelson, R. D., Jahn, R. G., Dunne, B. J., Dobyns, Y. H., & Bradish, G. J. (1998a). FieldREG II: consciousness field effects: replications and explorations. Journal of Scientific Exploration, 12, 425–454.

Varvoglis, M. P. & McCarthy, D. J. (1986). Conscious-purposive focus and PK: RNG activity in relation to awareness, task-orientation and feedback. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 80, 1-30.

Nelson, R. D., Radin, D. I., Shoup, R., Bancel, P. A. (2002). Correlations of Continuous Random Data with Major World Events. Foundations of Physics Letters, 15, 537-550.

- 25 - Bibliography

- 26 - - 27 - Research Centre Where the Project Will be Conducted

Name: Global Consciousness Project Address: 196 Valley Road Post Code: 08540 City: Princeton, New Jersey Country: USA Telephone: 1 609 924 4875 Fax: 1 609 924 4875 E-mail: [email protected]; URL: http://noosphere.princeton.edu

Purpose of Research Centre: Long term study, of group and global consciousness

Director of Research Centre: Dr. Roger D. Nelson

International Affiliation of the Centre: The centre is inherently an international project, with collaborators in 30 countries around the world. Our fiscal affiliation is with the Institute of Noetic Sciences, Petaluma, CA, USA.

Schedule of Project

December 2006 – November 2008 Project Duration: 24 months

December 2006  Contact programmers and consultants.  Set design parameters for network upgrade.  Set design parameters for database. January – March 2007  Complete and test network upgrade and database archiving.  Begin analysis of RNG – RNG distance dependence. April – May 2007  Install software upgrade at RNG nodes and server.  Monitor trial synchronization. May 2007 – August 2008

- 28 -  Data accumulation.  Continue database analysis. October 2008 – November 2008  Hypothesis testing on sequestered databases.  Conclude database analysis.  Prepare project report.

III. PROJECT BUDGET

Activities Salary (2 years, 75%): Dr. Bancel € 30.000

- 29 - Consultants Linux programming € 2.000 Windows programming € 2.000 Database consultant € 2.500

Total € 6.500

Services Required

- 30 - Bibliography

Equipment Computer workstation with 4Gb RAM € 4.000 Server with 500Gb hard disk € 3.000 Mathematica License renewal € 550

Total € 7.550

- 31 - Other Expenses Travel expenses € 1.000 Office supplies € 500

Total € 1.500

Budget Summary Salaries € 30.000 Equipment € 7.550 Consultanting € 6.500 Travel & supplies € 1.500

Project Total € 45.550

- 32 - - 33 - IV. ATTACHMENTS

Please attach: 1. Opinion of the Institution where the project will be conducted 2. External experts' reports concerning the project (optional) 3. Proof of Academic Qualifications of the project leader 4. Declaration signed by the project leader mentioning that the Investigation Team has insufficient economic funds to allow the accomplishment of the research without support 5. Declaration signed by the project leader agreeing with the terms of the present regulation, following the undermentioned model

IV. ATTACHMENTS

Attachment 1: Opinion of the Institution where the project will be conducted

I am the director of the Institution where the project will be conducted, as well as one of the principal investigators in the project. I hope the following meets the requirement for Attachment 1.

We believe that the Global Consciousness Project database presents an unusually rich opportunity to address questions that have arisen in parapsychological research.

It is a large database of “replications” of a few basic experiments, and is in addition, a hitherto unexplored type of data, namely, a continuous series over months and years of parallel sequences of random numbers. The hypothesis that there might be an effect of group or global consciousness has been tested in promising preliminary work by several researchers. The GCP is a much bigger and more consistent experimental paradigm that should allow several difficult issues in parapsychology to be addressed fruitfully. In addition, the GCP data allow, in principle, an assessment of the fundamental relation of random data to a wide variety of potential influences – from physical, biological, and social sources in addition to the anomalous sources posited in the main hypotheses.

We are confident in the scientific qualifications and the philosophical approach of the principal investigators, and we expect the project to be completed with professional care and rigor.

- 34 - Roger D. Nelson Director, GCP

- 35 - Attachment 2: External experts' reports concerning the project (optional)

The Global Consciousness Project is well known to the parapsychology research community, including several people who are known to the Bial Foundation. If recommendations are needed, please contact, for example, Dr. Richard Broughton, Prof. Deborah Delanoy, Dr. Dean Radin, Dr. Ed May, Dr. Caroline Watt or other leaders in the parapsychology research community. The late Prof. Robert Morris was supportive of the Global Consciousness Project, and encouraged submission of a proposal to the Bial Foundation.

Attachment 3: Proof of Academic Qualifications of the project leader

Please see my Curriculum Vitae in the body of this funding proposal. My qualifications include teaching and research at the university level for 32 years, most recently (1980-2002) at Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. I was the coordinator of research at the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research laboratory (PEAR), and the principal architect of our experimental design and analysis strategies. My publication resume comprises more than 100 articles, reviews, book chapters, and technical reports dealing with professional research in anomalies associated with human consciousness.

Attachment 4: Declaration signed by the project leader mentioning that the Investigation Team has insufficient economic funds to allow the accomplishment of the research without support

I declare that the Global Consciousness Project and the Analysis Investigation Team has insufficient funds to accomplish the proposed research and analysis without support.

Roger D.Nelson

- 36 - Attachment 5:

DECLARATION

I, the Project Applicant for a bursary of BIAL Foundation for financing the Research Project " Measuring Monitoring Global Consciousness: Measurement Enhancement and Parameter Refinement", declare that:

I have been fully informed and accept the terms of the Regulation of Bursaries for Scientific Research of the BIAL Foundation, approved by the Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia in pursuance of Law nº 40/2004, of 18th August.

Date August 30 2006......

Signed Roger D. Nelson......

- 37 -