Caspian Studies Program

CASPIAN STUDIES PROGRAM Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project Kennedy School of Government Harvard University

NEWSLETTER JANUARY 2002 Program Chair: Graham Allison Program Director: Melissa Carr Editor: John Grennan

This Caspian Studies Program (CSP) newsletter highlights CSP activities that occurred during Fall 2001.

CSP RESEARCH DIRECTOR SHAFFER TESTIFIES IN CONGRESS

On October 10, the Caspian the Center for Strategic and helped shape the discussion in Studies Program’s Research International Studies (CSIS). policy circles. These Director Brenda Shaffer gave a In her testimony, Shaffer recommendations included briefing on the Caspian region to outlined the Caspian region’s supporting an East-West the U.S. House of development into an important petroleum pipeline in the Representatives International alternative source of oil. She Caspian region and making a Relations Committee. The also indicated that the United serious effort to repeal sanctions hearing was convened by Elton States has an opportunity to against Azerbaijan. Gallegly (R-CA) and Earl establish strong relationships Shaffer’s testimony was Hilliard (D-AL), the chairman with the Muslim countries of the widely covered in the and ranking member of the region. Azerbaijani press and cited as a House European Subcommittee, The recommendations Shaffer key turning point in the debate respectively. made in her testimony, and in over Section 907 sanctions In addition to Dr. Shaffer, the her earlier CSP Policy Brief against Azerbaijan. This month, hearing featured scholars from “U.S. Policy toward the Caspian President Bush signed a bill that the School of Advanced Region: Recommendations for waived sanctions against International Studies (SAIS) and the Bush Administration,” have Azerbaijan for one year.

GEORGIAN PRESIDENT SHEVARDNADZE SPEAKS AT KENNEDY SCHOOL

On October 3, Georgian President institutions such as the United and former Soviet Foreign Minister Nations could play a key role in Eduard Shevardnadze addressed improving global security in the the Harvard community, speaking post-September 11th world. on the topic of “Searching for Shevardnadze expressed his Security in a Changing World.” belief that the greatest challenge The speech marked the tenth facing leaders in the new anniversary of Georgia’s century is to address the independence and was sponsored by widening gap between rich and the Caspian Studies Program and the poor countries. Institute of Politics. He also In his discussion of terrorism and discussed other security challenges, Georgia’s Shevardnadze said that international own security

Caspian Studies Program 1 situation—including its desire to relationship with Russia, and the join NATO, its evolving civil war in Abkhazia.

Photograph by Martha Stewart CSP PUBLICATIONS AND MEDIA

CSP Chair Offers Commentary For more information on CSP Publications, About Kazakhstan in Boston Globe . . . visit our web site www.ksg.harvard.edu/bcsia/sdi Immediately following the visit of Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev to the United CSP’s Shaffer on a ‘Caspian States in December, Caspian Studies Program Chair Graham Allison wrote an op-ed piece in the Alternative to OPEC’ in Wall Street Boston Globe on January 6 about Kazakhstan’s Journal leadership in the campaign against the proliferation In the November 7 Wall Street Journal, CSP of nuclear weapons. Nonproliferation is a Research Director Brenda Shaffer published an significant strategic issue facing the region and an article in which she discussed the security risks issue that Professor Allison knows well. When he associated with the United States’ current reliance served as assistant secretary of defense in the on Persian Gulf oil and new opportunities in the oil Clinton administration, Allison worked with industries of President Nazarbayev to Kazakhstan and make Kazakhstan a non- Azerbaijan. nuclear state. Shaffer’s article The article explained indicated that that Kazakhstan is more increased flows of than just an oil-rich state. Caspian oil, while It is also a leader in not serving as a regional affairs and can replacement for oil continue to be a positive from countries like force in the campaign for Saudi Arabia, could nuclear nonproliferation. help to reduce the According to Allison, power the OPEC Nazarbayev has the best cartel has in opportunity among determining regional leaders to broker international oil the completion of the prices. She also discussed the need to resolve the Central Asian Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone Treaty. Nagorno-Karabagh conflict in order to improve the . . . and for TASS TV security situation within the region. After this piece appeared in the Boston Globe, IN ADDITION: TASS TV of Russia and Kazakhstan interviewed Elchin Amirbayov, counselor on political affairs Dr. Allison about Kazakhstan’s role in nuclear at Azerbaijan’s Mission to NATO, nonproliferation. wrote “Shusha’s Pivotal Role in a CSP’s Allison Provides Introduction for Nagorno-Karabagh Settlement, ” President Nazarbayev’s Book the latest installment in the Caspian Studies Policy Brief During this past summer, CSP Chair Graham series. Amirbayov was previously Allison also wrote the introduction to President a United States Azerbaijan Nursultan Nazarbayev’s Epicenter of Peace, a Chamber of Commerce (USACC) book that provides a first-hand account of Fellow and completed the Senior Kazakhstan’s role in combating nuclear Executives in National and proliferation. In his introduction, Allison lauded International Security Program at Nazarbayev for convincing Kazakhstan to the Kennedy School in 2000. relinquish the nuclear arsenal it inherited when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

Caspian Studies Program 2 In August, Pavel Baev, senior researcher at the interviewed by several media outlets in the Fall of International Peace Research Institute in Oslo, 2001, including The New York Times and The published “Russia Refocuses its Policies in the Washington Times, as well as many publications in Southern Caucasus,” the first CSP Working Paper. Turkey, Israel, and Azerbaijan. She is also the author of the recently-published and widely- Brenda Shaffer was profiled in Investor’s distributed Caspian Studies Program Policy Brief, Business Daily on November 8, as part of the “U.S. Policy toward the Caspian Region: feature article “Caspian Oil Fields Increase in Recommendations for the Bush Administration.” Significance with Gulf Volatility.” She was CSP SEMINARS AND OUTREACH On October 16, Brenda Shaffer, Doug Blum On September 27, Nurlan Kapparov, former (Brown University), Markus Fischer Kazakhstani vice-minister of energy and mineral (Pitzer College), Gerard Libaridian resources, spoke at the Belfer Center Director's (University of Michigan), and Yusup Seminar on the topic of oil and other natural energy Magdiev (Harvard University) convened resources in Kazakhstan. Mr. Kapparov also and discussed “Culture and Foreign addressed the political relationship between Policy: Islam and the Caspian.” This was Kazakhstan, Russia, and the West in terms of oil the first of two meetings that will lead to and Caspian Sea development. Culture and Foreign Policy: Islam and the Caspian Region, an edited volume to

be published in 2002. Anna Politkovskaya, special correspondent for Novaya Gazeta and author of A Dirty War: A Russian Reporter in Chechnya, spoke at a Caspian Studies Program event held at the Kennedy School on November 19. Ms. Politkovskaya discussed the current situation in Chechnya, as well as her own experience working on the ground in the region. Maury Devine, a fellow at the Caspian Studies program since 2000, continues her work among the Nurlan Kapparov with CSP Chair Graham Caspian and energy policy-making communities in Allison at the Kennedy School on September 27. Washington, D.C. Her recent activities include Photograph from BCSIA Archives involvement in the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Energy Program.

Brenda Shaffer, the research director of the Caspian Studies Program, has had an active past few months of policy outreach and conference activities in Europe and the Caucasus. Some highlights are described below:  In her two most recent trips to the Caspian region, Shaffer held meetings with Azerbaijani government leaders, as well as members of the international business and diplomatic communities in Baku. In September, she met with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliyev, as well as high- ranking members of the Ministry of Foreign

Caspian Studies Program 3 Affairs and the Ministry of National Security. She  Shaffer continues her extensive involvement also met with leaders of SOCAR, ExxonMobil, BP with Israeli policymakers. In August, she Azerbaijan, and CSO Aker Maritime Offshore, participated in a conference of Israeli ambassadors LTD., in order to discuss energy policy and the to the former Soviet Union held in Warsaw, where strategic situation in the Caspian region. In she met with Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and November, at the invitation of President Heydar other Israeli diplomatic leaders. In December, she Aliyev, she attended the Azerbaijanis of the World gave a lecture on Caucasus and Central Asian Forum in Baku. During this trip, she discussed issues to Israel’s National Security Council. policy issues with Ross Wilson, the U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan. The tragic events of September 11 and their repercussions have raised the profile of the  Shaffer also gave several presentations at policy Caspian region and its strategic importance in conferences in Europe. In October, she traveled to the eyes of many Americans. CSP Chair Graham Brussels to participate in a conference on conflicts Allison and Research Director Brenda Shaffer— in the southern Caucasus. This meeting was as well as CSP program staff and fellows—have sponsored by TESEV, the leading independent been actively engaged in ongoing discussions foreign policy think tank in Turkey. In December, with members of the Bush administration, Shaffer gave a presentation on “Implications of the Congress, and Caspian regional leaders, as they September 11 Events for Central Asia and the formulate and analyze their response to terrorism Caucasus” at the Landau Network-Centro Volta and its implications for the countries of the Conference on energy issues, held in Como, Italy. Caspian region.

CSP NEWS

CSP Chair Graham Allison introduced Senator Charles Hagel (R-NE), at the Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics Forum on October 17. In his speech, Hagel advocated repealing sanctions against certain foreign countries—including Azerbaijan. Hagel was recently named to the Senate Central Asia and Caucasus Subcommittee. Photograph by Thomas J. Fitzsimmons

On September 25, CSP Research Director Brenda Shaffer, U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan Ross Wilson, and Azerbaijani Ambassador to the United States Hafiz Pashayev spoke at a ceremony held at the U.S. Embassy in Baku for recent Azerbaijani graduates of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government. The event, which was co-sponsored by the U.S. Embassy in Azerbaijan and the Caspian Studies Program, honored Azerbaijani graduates of the Kennedy School’s Executive Education and Master’s Degree Programs, as well as the sponsors who funded their studies—ExxonMobil, Chevron, CSO Aker Maritime Offshore, LTD., CCC, ETPM, and Statoil. In December, one of these former students of the Kennedy School, Afgan Abdullayev, won the Edmund Muskie/Freedom Support Award from the U.S. Department of State Cultural Affairs and Social Relations Bureau. On November 1-3, the Kennedy School held its Fifth Annual Russian Investment Symposium—the world’s leading forum for business and government leaders from the United States and Russia to discuss the business climate in Russia. One panel focused on foreign investment in the oil and gas sector and highlighted the countries of the Caspian region. This panel was moderated by Thane Gustafson of the Cambridge Energy Research Associates and included high-level representatives from ExxonMobil, BP, Access Industries, and Rosneftegazstroy. The Kennedy School faculty continues to incorporate Caspian issues more fully into the curriculum. In December, Professor Keith Allred invited Nagorno-Karabagh’s representative to the United States, Vardan Barseghyan, to address his Negotiations class and engage graduate students in discussing possible solutions to the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Caspian Studies Program 4 Mohammad Haririakbari, professor of social sciences at Tabriz University in Iran, has joined the Caspian Studies Program as a visiting scholar for the 2001-2002 academic year. While he is in the United States, he will be focusing his research on emerging socio-cultural phenomenon in Iranian Azerbaijan, as well as new possible pipeline routes for Caspian energy.

The Caspian Studies Program seeks to locate the Caspian region on the maps of the American policy- making community as an area in which the United States has important national interests and where U.S. policy can make major differences. Through its research and teaching, the Caspian Studies Program helps raise the profile of the region’s opportunities and problems and utilizes Harvard resources to train new leaders who will shape the future of the region.

SDI PROJECT, BELFER CENTER FOR SCIENCE AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS JFK SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY 79 JFK STREET, CAMBRIDGE, MA 02138 Phone: (617) 496-1565 Fax: (617) 496-8779 Email: [email protected] Website: http://ksg.harvard.edu/BCSIA/SDI Graham Allison, Chair Melissa Carr, Program Director Brenda Shaffer, Research Director Maury Devine, Fellow Annaliis Abrego, Administrative Assistant Mohammad Haririakbari, Fellow John Grennan, Research Assistant

Caspian Studies Program 5