Supplementary Material s80

1 Supplementary material

2 Table S1. Some of the many strategic foresight tools and the steps of the process they are associated with. Note: some tools can be used in more 3 than one step.

Setting the scope Collecting inputs Analyzing signals Interpreting Determining how to Implementing the information act outcomes

Issues trees[ 1 ]: used to Horizon scanning[ 2 ]: Delphi[ 3 ]: an expert Scenarios[ 4 ]: a tool to Backcasting[ 5 ]: used to Action research[ 6 ]: an identify the key used to collect and elicitation process with explore alternative visualize barriers to iterative process for elements of an issue organize a wide array confidential voting over visions of the future achieving a goal and improving action that need to be of information to several rounds where based on key the steps needed to designed around considered identify emerging participants can adapt uncertainties and trends overcome those planning, acting, issues their views based on obstacles learning and reflecting the views of others

Review of abstracts[ 1 ]: State of science Emerging issues Causal layered Roadmaps[ 1 ]: for Issues management[ 9 ]: a series of short, reviews[ 1 ]: expert analysis[ 7 ]: used to analysis[ 8 ]: a tool to identifying the actions a systems-based annotated summaries of synthesis of all the identify trends and expose hidden required to overcome approach to identifying intersting primary relevant science on problems as they assumptions and help any barriers emerging issues and sources (e.g., research, specific topics relevant emerge based on an s- create a new narrative developing successful news media) relevance to the system of interest shaped curve from to promote a desired responses, often to the topic novelty to information change focused on public saturation relations issues

Seven questions[ 1 ]: Literature review: Driver analysis[ 1 ]: a Narrative[ 1 ]: using The fifth scenario[ 1 ]: Coaching: a type of series of questions summary of relevant process to look across stories to make a topic uses an existing set of change management designed to stimulate published information diverse information to tangible and encourage four scenarios to that focussed on reflection and identify and group imaginative thought by describe the preferred supporting individuals speculation about the trends, determine the capturing historical and future and the steps or organizations to future drivers of these trends, current details, along needed to achieve it. change. and the relationships with desirable or between drivers possible future Cook et al

Setting the scope Collecting inputs Analyzing signals Interpreting Determining how to Implementing the information act outcomes

conditions Stakeholder Leading/ lagging Statistical modelling Visioning[ 12 ]: Dialogue[ 1 ]: discussion Change management: analysis[ 10 ]: a process indicators: using data and analysis[ 11 ]: using Participants describe facilitated by open- an approach to to identify stakeholders on lagging indicators mathematical concepts the ideal scenario in ended questions, transitioning with an interest in an (current or recent to describe a system, detail. They share and observations and a individuals or groups to issue trends) and developing study the effects of refine the vision, often focus on contextual a desired state leading indicators that different components, exploring barriers and information attempt to anticipate and make predictions key actors, the future trends about system behavior resources required and and the effects of the steps involved in alternative conditions achieving the vision or actions System maps[ 1 ]: Workshops[ 13 ]: Trend impact Gaming[15]: Reverse Adaptive conceptual assembles expert to analysis[ 14 ]: projection participants use engineering[ 1 ]: uses management[ 16 ]: a representation of a identify the most based on past trends to information provided to alternative views of the process for learning system, with a set of significant emerging infer the consequences make decisions about future to identify short, about the effectiveness elements and the issues via an iterative of similar or different the future in a medium and long-term of management by relationships between scoring process trajectories in key controlled, risk-free threats and monitoring outcomes them variables environement using opportunities that will methods such as have a high impact on roleplay the system. Critical futures[ 17 ]: a Interviews[ 18 ]: Cross impact Futures wheel[ 20 ]: a Decision process for targeted discussion analysis[ 19 ]: structures structure brainstorming modelling[ 21 ]: ubnderstanding and with experts to elicit thinking about how one tool exploring the alternatives are scored renegotiating their views on a topic event impacts the primary, secondary and against multiple, underlying assumptions likelihood of other tertiary impacts of a weighted criteria or and worldviews events. Probabilities are trend or event objectives to determine assigned subjectively or which alternative are underpinned by performs best across all Setting the scope Collecting inputs Analyzing signals Interpreting Determining how to Implementing the information act outcomes mathematical objectives relationships

Societal, Technological Futures triangle[22]: – Risk analysis[ 23 ]: a Environment, a tool to consider process for assessing Economic, Political plausible futures based and dealing with (STEEP) analysis[ 1 ]: on past, present, and hazards scans the contextual future drivers and and external trends environment for an issue in relation to the STEEP areas.

5 References

6 1 Foresights' Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) (2014) Exploring the future: Tools for strategic thinking. The Government Office for Science 7 http://hsctoolkit.bis.gov.uk/index.htm 8 2 Amanatidou, E., et al. (2012) On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Sci. 9 Pub. Policy 39, 208-221 10 3 Gordon, T.J. (2009) The Delphi method. In Futures research methodology - version 3.0 (Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, J.T., eds), The Millennium 11 Project 12 4 Peterson, G.D., et al. (2003) Scenario planning: A tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conserv. Biol. 17, 358-366 Cook et al

13 5 Robinson, J. (2003) Future subjunctive: Backcasting as social learning. Futures 35, 839-856 14 6 McNiff, J. and Whitehead, J. (2003) Action research: principles and practice. Routledge Falmer 15 7 Molitor, G.T.T. (2003) The power to change the world. Public Policy Forecasting 16 8 Inayatullah, S. (2009) Causal Layered Analysis: An integrative and transformative theory and method. In Futures research methodology - 17 version 3.0 (Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J., eds), The Millenium Project 18 9 Coates, J. (1987) Issues management: How you can plan, organize and manage for the future. Lomond Publications 19 10 Reed, M.S., et al. (2009) Who's in and why? A typology of stakeholder analysis methods for natural resource management. J. Environ. 20 Manag. 90, 1933-1949 21 11 Pacinelli, A. (2009) Statistical modeling: From time series to simulation. In Futures research methodology - version 3.0 (Glenn, J.C. and 22 Gordon, T.J., eds), The Millennium Project 23 12 Grove Consultants International (2013) Strategic visioning process. National Endowment for the Arts 24 http://www.nea.gov/resources/lessons/grove.html 25 13 Sutherland, W.J., et al. (2011) Methods for collaboratively identifying research priorities and emerging issues in science and policy. Methods 26 Ecol. Evol. 2, 238-247 27 14 Gordon, T.J. (2009) Trend impact analysis. In Futures research methodology - version 3.0 (Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J., eds), The 28 Millennium Project 29 15 Rausch, E. and Catanzaro, F. (2009) Simulation and games in futuring and other uses. In Futures research methodology - version 3.0 (Glenn, 30 J.C. and Gordon, T.J., eds), The Millenium Project 31 16 McCarthy, M.A. and Possingham, H.P. (2007) Active adaptive management for conservation. Conserv. Biol. 21, 956-963 32 17 Slaughter, R. (1999) An outline of critical futures studies. In Futures for the third millennium - Enabling the forward view (Slaughter, R., ed), 33 Prospect 34 18 Patton, M.Q. (2002) Qualitative research and evaluation methods. Sage Publications 35 19 Gordon, T.J. (2009) Cross-impact analysis. In Futures research methodology - version 3.0 (Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J., eds), The 36 Millennium Project 37 20 Glenn, J.C. (2009) Futures wheel. In Futures research methodology - version 3.0 (Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J., eds), The Millennium Project 38 21 The Futures Group International (2009) Decision modeling. In Futures research methodology - version 3.0 (Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J., 39 eds), The Millennium Project 40 22 Inayatullah, S. (2006) Anticipatory action learning: Theory and practice. Futures 38, 656-666 41 23 Maguire, L.A. (1991) Risk analysis for conservation biologists. Conserv. Biol. 5, 123-125