Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery

 Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery  Slope Resource Assessment Group (SLOPERAG)

MINUTES

CHAIR: MR SANDY MORISON

23–25 SEPTEMBER 2013

FREYCINET ROOM

CSIRO MARINE LABS

CASTRAY ESPLANADE TAS SlopeRAG Minutes Chair: Mr Sandy Morison

Date and Location: 23 – 25 September 2013, CSIRO, Hobart

Members Mr Sandy Morison SlopeRAG Chair Dr Geoff Tuck CSIRO Mr Tom Bibby Industry Mr John Jarvis Industry Mr Simon Boag Industry Dr Sarah Jennings UTAS, Economics Mr Andrew Penney ABARES Dr Marcus Finn AFMA, Manager Commonwealth Trawl Fisheries Observers and invited participants Mr Ross Bromley AFMA, SlopeRAG Executive Officer Dr Neil Klaer CSIRO Dr Jemery Day CSIRO Dr Judy Upston CSIRO Mr George Day AFMA, Senior Manager, Demersal and Midwater Section Dr Kevin Rowling Invited participant Dr Bruce Taylor CSIRO Consultant Professor Andre Punt CSIRO by Skype Dr Malcolm Haddon CSIRO Mr Patrick Cordue ISL NZ. Consultant for SETFIA Mr Craig Geier AFMA, Observer Section Apologies from members Mr Les Scott Industry Dr Jeremy Prince Biospherics Pty Ltd

Dr Sarah Jennings UTAS, Economics. (Tuesday) Preliminaries

Welcome and Introductions/Apologies

1. The Chair welcomed all SlopeRAG members and observers to the meeting and advised the RAG of the objectives of the meeting. All in attendance introduced themselves and declared any pecuniary interest. 2. The RAG accepted apologies from Mr Les Scott, Dr Jeremy Prince and Dr Sarah Jennings (Tuesday only).

Declarations of Interest Name Interest Declared Sandy Morison SlopeRAG and ShelfRAG Chair, member of SEMAC and SESSFRAG. Consultant with an interest in funding for research purposes. Conducts fisheries related work consultancies for Industry, companies and other Government departments. Geoff Tuck Acquiring funding for research purposes Tom Bibby Chair of SETFIA and South East Trawl boat and quota SFR holder John Jarvis South East Trawl boat and quota SFR holder Simon Boag CEO of SETFIA, member of Victorian Fishing Advisory Council, director of a fishing company that owns South East Trawl boat and quota SFRs. Vice Chair Commonwealth Fisheries Association. Sarah Jennings No pecuniary interest Andrew Penney No pecuniary interest Marcus Finn No pecuniary interest Ross Bromley No pecuniary interest Neil Klaer Acquiring funding for research purposes Jemery Day Acquiring funding for research purposes Judy Upston Acquiring funding for research purposes George Day No pecuniary interest Kevin Rowling No pecuniary interest Bruce Taylor Acquiring funding for research purposes Patrick Cordue No pecuniary interest Craig Geier No pecuniary interest Andre Punt Acquiring funding for research purposes Malcolm Haddon Acquiring funding for research purposes

3. John Jarvis and Simon Boag left the room in turn while the RAG discussed their conflicts of interest. The RAG resolved that their conflicts did not preclude them from RAG discussions and the RAG would deal with any conflicts as they arose. It was noted that their experience in the fishery was desired by the RAG and that all commercial operators would have similar conflicts of interest. No other members declared conflicts with any of the agenda items.

Adoption of Agenda

4. The draft agenda was accepted. Adoption of minutes and actions from SlopeRAG meeting November 2012

5. The RAG noted that the minutes of the previous meeting held in November 2012 had previously been accepted out of session. 6. The RAG noted that the meeting would be recorded for the purpose of compiling the minutes and that the recording would be destroyed once the minutes were confirmed.

Results of action items arising from SlopeRAG November 2012 Action item Response Action Result person

Alfonsino - Examine data from New Zealand / To be presented Neil Klaer Completed high seas. Compare age structure inside and later at this RAG outside the AFZ to assess whether the ECDW Alfonsino assessment needs to account for them.

Identify where the 7 apparently targeted To be presented Neil Klaer November shots for Oreos mixed were taken to at the RAG determine if they were from the Cascade November RAG Plateau or not.

Oreos mixed – provide information on To be presented Judy Upston November observed shots of Oreos mixed in the west at the RAG since 2007. November RAG

Add the review of the Bergh et. al. (2009) Completed Sandy Completed report to the list of research needs. Morison

Undertake sensitivity of removing the larger Will be done for Malcolm To be vessels data from the Silver Warehou the next Silver Haddon included in assessment model. Warehou the next SW assessment assessment

Silver Warehou - Deterministic projections Completed Neil Klaer To be be done under 3 years of low recruitment included in scenarios (low recruitment defined as the the next SW average of 2002 – 2005) to inform a assessment projection of the next 3 years of the stock estimates for a 3 year MYTAC.

Send Ian Knuckey’s closure report to Completed AFMA Completed SlopeRAG. manager

Circulate a copy of his analysis of Orange Completed Malcolm Completed Roughy catches in the proposed re-opening Haddon of the western Deepwater area of the >700m closure. Stock Assessments

Pink Ling – Tier 1

7. Marcus Finn, AFMA trawl manager, gave the RAG a brief summary of the background to current management arrangements for eastern zone Pink Ling.  The AFMA recommended TAC for the 2013 fishing season was rejected by the AFMA Commission due to their concerns that the biomass for the eastern stock was estimated to be around B26.  A step down to a revised TAC of 250t was accepted by the Commission with the caveat that arrangements must be implemented to constrain catches to this level.  A trigger of 200t has been exceeded by the fishery during the current season and a 50kg daily limit will come into force on 26 September 2013.  AFMA management recognises the effort put in by larger quota holders to avoid this situation and acknowledged their preferred arrangements; however AFMA does not have the legislative authority to implement their proposals.  AFMA acknowledges that limits are not ideal management tools nonetheless it needs to base decisions on the best available knowledge. 8. In response to a query whether ling were measured as standard length or total length by observers; Neil Klaer advised that recently standard lengths had been measured but he had developed a conversion factor and this has been applied to the existing data.

9. Andre Punt joined the meeting via Skype. 10. The RAG agreed that the data selection and model structure options should be judged independently on their merits and the base case should be developed by taking the best options from each of the two proposed approaches (Punt and Cordue).

Modeling and data options – Patrick Cordue

11. The RAG noted that assessments implemented with either Stock Synthesis 3 and or CASAL, using the same data, will give similar results but there are some differences and not all options can be implemented in both packages. The RAG requested that Andre Punt and Patrick Cordue identify any differences in their assessments resulting from the software used. 12. The RAG agreed that considering the Kapala data was collected over a small area it was not likely to be representative of the abundance of the entire stock and should be excluded from the assessment. Nevertheless, it was suggested that the size frequency data from the first Kapala survey provided a good indication of the size composition of a relatively unfished stock. 13. Stratification and scaling can be done using; space, time, depth or boats and different strata are scaled up to represent the catch for the age and length data. Cordue used three depth strata; 0 – 300m, 300 – 500m and >500m. There is a difference in length at depth in the zones and therefore it is important to consider stratification by zone and depth. 14. Cordue identified that there were strong zone and depth effects on length data from the eastern zones and this means data that cannot be assigned a depth (port data) should not be used in the eastern zone assessment. This effect is not apparent for western zone data; consequently port and onboard data can be combined. The RAG supported these approaches. 15. The RAG agreed that the stratification and scaling of trawl length frequencies be done by zone and depth. Further details are described in Cordue’s report. 16. Spawning biomass. The RAG agreed that female spawning biomass is a good proxy for egg production and this measure should be used in the new assessment (no change from last year). 17. Patrick Cordue explained to the RAG that he had used mid-year spawning female biomass estimates in his assessment. His reasoning is that at the start of the fishing year (May in the SESSF) there was a larger female population that was fished down as the season progresses and there was less female spawning population at spawning time (October to November) than at the start of the season. A mid-year stock estimate better reflects the stock available to spawn. It was noted that due to software constraints this approach may be difficult to implement in SS3. 18. The RAG agreed to continue to allow the model to estimate growth. 19. The RAG agreed to use the same CV across all years for trawl CPUE. 20. The RAG agreed that data sets and relative weighting of CPUE would be weighted as per Francis (2011). 21. The RAG agreed that any changes in catchability within the CPUE estimates are to be dealt with within the CPUE standardization. 22. The RAG discussed using non-trawl CPUE in the assessment. The RAG noted Patrick Cordue’s opinion that the non-trawl CPUE is not reflective of the stock abundance due to the paucity of data and that data from auto longline operations targeting ling may indicate hyperstability and not be indexing abundance. Andre Punt was of the view that auto longline data could index abundance in the areas fished. The RAG deferred its decision on using non trawl data until it had a chance to review plots of the data coverage. 23. Patrick Cordue described his analysis of age-length data. He concluded that:  There were strong conditional age at length differences between trawl and line data and across the eastern zones.  The appropriate depth stratification zones are; 0 – 300m, 300m – 500m and > 500m  The data supports stratification by zones in the east but not in the west;  There are obvious gear effects and the data supports separating age-length data by gear types; and  The data provides no evidence of cohort-specific growth and therefore it should not be estimated in the assessment model. 24. The RAG agreed to an estimation of M within the model informed by a prior with a mean of 0.2 and a CV of 0.2. 25. The RAG discussed the use of length based selectivities in the model and agreed that this approach was fine if the assumption is that length based selectivity is the same for trawl and non-trawl, however the data do not support this. The RAG agreed to use age based rather than length based selectivities in the model. 26. The RAG considered the suitability of either the number of fish or the number of operations as a tuning metric within the model. It was noted that because large numbers of fish sampled could have come from a small number of operations this may not be representative of the fishery. The RAG agreed to use the number of operations or landings as a metric. 27. The RAG agreed to use the on board data in the assessment and to keep these data separate to port samples because the selectivities between the two may differ.

28. Tom Bibby joined the meeting after lunch. He made a declaration of interest that he is the holder of a Commonwealth Trawl Boat SFR and also quota SFRs. He left the room while the RAG considered his declaration. The RAG resolved that his conflicts did not preclude him from RAG discussions and the RAG would deal with any conflicts as they arose. 29. The RAG reviewed the age at length proportions and zone data and noted:  A difference of age at length proportions between the zones  A difference in proportions of age at given length  Zone 10 has younger fish  Auto longline caught fish have a different age structure to those caught by trawl  There may be different availability of age at length in each of the zones  There are different lengths/mean age in the zones  There is no evidence of cohort specific growth or cohort effects. 30. The RAG also considered whether cohort effect on growth could be recognized in the data. The RAG agreed that there was no evidence of cohort-specific growth in the data and it should be left out of the model this year. The RAG agreed that these data should be reviewed prior to next year’s assessment and the results of the review be discussed at next year’s RAG. 31. The RAG discussed three approaches to spatial modelling:  Full spatial approach was recognised as probably the approach to adopt, however some parameters the model estimates are biologically unreasonable e.g. M. The RAG recognised that if estimates of these parameters were incorrect then the potential for a bad outcome was high. The RAG agreed not to use this approach as part of this base case but it may be considered in the future.  Semi-spatial (fleet) approach was proposed as a way to deal with unbalanced data that avoids the need to fill in data gaps. This approach has also been shown in simulation studies to perform better than models where heterogeneous data are aggregated. Nevertheless, this approach was rejected because the RAG had concerns with the requirement that the CPUE indices in individual zones index full-stock abundance, i.e. full stock mixing. The RAG also had concerns that definition of the zones was arbitrary and that this approach requires accurate estimates of stock wide parameters.  Standard (spatially aggregated) approach was discussed and adopted by the RAG subject to the agreed changes in Attachment 1.

CPUE analysis

32. Patrick Cordue described his analysis of trawl catch and effort data: Eastern zone  Depth filtering between 200-750m was used  Filtering of trawl records, based on the catches of species other than ling, was used to try to define a consistent fishery from which ling was taken as a bycatch  There is an arithmetic drop in CPUE between 1999-2000 in Zones 10 and 20  There was a change in the trend of the proportion of trawls that reported retained ling in Zones 10 and 20; an increasing trend reversed direction in about 2000. This may be related to the sale of ling quota from the trawl sector in the eastern zones at that time  Cordue used time blocking to estimate fleet effectiveness and vessel effects. The time blocks are: 1986-1999, 2000-2006 and 2007-2012.  Use of time-blocking (with linked vessel effects) increases CPUE indices from 1999 onwards  There is a very strong depth and latitude effect on ling catches  There are no unreasonable vessel effects or changes in vessel effects. Western zone  Time blocks used were; 1986-2006, 2007-2012  Depth and species-based filtering as for the eastern stock  The use of time-blocking had little effect on the CPUE indices  There is a moderate depth effect and a close to linear trawl duration effect  The is a weak to moderate latitude effect  There are no unreasonable vessel effects or changes in vessel effects 33. Cordue noted that inclusion of time blocks increased the difference in eastern zone estimated CPUE between CSIRO and the estimate he calculated. This effect was not apparent when time blocks were used in the western zone. 34. The RAG summarised its agreed changes to the Ling base case as per Attachment 1 The meeting adjourned at 17:20 Tuesday 24 September

35. The RAG noted an apology from Dr. Sarah Jennings for today’s meeting.

Pink Ling - continued

36. The RAG discussed whether running a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis was appropriate and warranted for the Pink Ling assessment. The RAG advised the benefits of running a MCMC for the following reasons. The MCMC:  provides estimates of error within the model;  considers if the model has considered minimum values; and  checks estimates of the parameters within the model. 37. AFMA management and industry supported doing a MCMC on the assessment this year.

Blue Grenadier

38. Geoff Tuck presented the preliminary 2013 Blue Grenadier assessment. The RAG noted:  The last assessment was undertaken in 2011  The data were updated to include 2012  The steepness was changed from 0.9 in 2011 to 0.75  The large cohort that the fishery depended on is now coming to an end and catch rates have been declining  An estimated large recruitment in 2010 is the second largest on record and is predicted to increase biomass 39. Industry informed the RAG that:-  Australian supermarkets import large quantities from New Zealand and that they may not be able to catch Blue Grenadier economically in the future irrespective of the size of the TAC  Some operators had increased the mesh size of their nets to avoid large discards of small Blue Grenadier and this may need to be considered when looking at CPUE and vessel selectivity  In the west, fish were widespread. Warmer water from a strong Leeuwin current (3 degrees warmer at normal Blue Grenadier depths) meant fishers had to use gear deeper, and the size of fish varied with location. In the east small fish were found as far north as Greenwell Point, There was colder water close to the coast and there had been a drop off in catches. It is unsure if this can be related to the water temp.

Action item – AFMA to establish; if net and mesh sizes are recorded by ISMP observers, to what detail and if these data are entered into the database. AFMA.

40. The RAG noted the outcomes of the 2013 assessment:-  The 2011 assessment was rerun with the latest SS software and when compared with the 2013 assessment there was no difference  Early recruitments were poorly estimated and have been removed from the estimation and recruitment estimates now begin in 1974  Model fits to CPUE in the early 2000’s are unexplainably low, however fits to CPUE since 2005 are quite good. As the later fits are used for management purposes this was considered to be the most important and no attempt was made to change the model to get a better fit to early CPUE  The 2013 assessment picks up the 2010 recruitment and this results in a more optimistic outlook. This is a good sign for the fishery, however it will have to be seen if this flows through into future catches  The RAG agreed that removal of the egg survey should be done as a sensitivity  The RAG agreed that the Francis (2011) tuning method for data would be done as a sensitivity  Preliminary results of the assessment estimate a virgin female biomass of 38,365 t (estimated at 39,983 t in 2011) and biomass of 77% of unfished levels (estimated 2014 90%). 41. The RAG noted Geoff Tuck’s suggestions for further development:-  Explore a better fit to discards as a sensitivity  Use an average recruitment estimate. The RAG to provide advice on catch scenarios to inform MYTAC considerations if the estimated recruitment is weaker or does not enter the fishery under current assumptions  Revisit the breakout rules 42. To inform MYTAC decisions the RAG will provide advice on 3 and 5 year constant catch estimates and 5 year projections.

Alfonsino

43. There were no reported catches of Alfonsino in the East Coast Deepwater fishery in 2006, 2008,and 2010, but there were catches reported in 2011 and 2012 so the analysis conducted in 2011 (Haddon, 2012b) was updated. However, there was only a single vessel active and the information remained sparse so the resulting catch rates are highly uncertain and still cannot be used to conduct a Tier 4 analysis. 44. Alfonsino are a straddling stock and there have been catches taken from the high seas area of the eastern Lord Howe Rise by Australian and non–Australian boats. 45. Australia reports its high seas catch to SPRFMO however Alfonsino are also taken by other nationalities on the high seas between Australia and New Zealand. 46. There are data from the New Zealand fleet but not from the Russian fleet that fished in the high seas area in the past. Andrew Penney has provided New Zealand’s high seas data however there are probably only a few records. 47. The RAG resolved to use the Australian and New Zealand data within the overlap area adjacent to the AFZ and provide RBC advice for the straddling stock and AFZ only.

Blue eye Trevalla (Cascade Plateau hook closure)

48. AFMA presented a paper seeking RAG clarification on whether the rationale for maintaining the spatial closure of the Cascade Plateau (CP) to hook fishing methods is still applicable. 49. The RAG noted the original rationale for closing the CP was an assumption that the Blue eye Trevalla (BET) shelf stock relied somewhat on the spawning CP stock for stock replenishment. 50. The RAG discussed the closure and the discussion points and questions can be summarised as follows:  The assumption for the closure is that CP BET are the part of the SE Australian stock and provide recruitment into the fishery. There is a need to consider if this is correct and if fishing effort on the CP affects overall recruitment more than fishing elsewhere  Juvenile BET are semi pelagic and capable of moving considerable distance  The New Zealand experience is that their (NZ) stocks are connected  BET are slow growing and have low productivity  If the CP is opened would that change the TAC?  How would opening the CP affect the Tier 4 assessment?  There is an assumption that all BET in the SESSF are protected from over fishing by the TAC and there is no need for additional measures, such as spawning closures, to protect the stock  The RAG agrees with the single stock hypothesis and that the single stock is assessed by a Tier 4 assessment  Closure of the CP does provide a small insurance, however if the TAC is correct a closure is not required  An advantage to opening the CP is that fishing effort is spread over a larger area  What proportion of BET habitat is closed and is it appropriate to use this as a proxy for a discount factor?  There is no evidence to support the hypothesis that closing areas of spawning adults increases recruitment into the BET fishery  The RAG advised they had no evidence that the CP contributes disproportionally to recruitment to the east coast  There are other protections in the form of Gulper and deepwater closures and the TAC that provides protection to BET. 51. The RAG resolved to defer its advice until the BET assessment was discussed at the November meeting.

3.4 Blue eye Trevalla – Tier 4 stock assessment

52. Kevin Rowling presented a paper on the status of BET off south-eastern Australia. The paper can be summarised as follows:  Similar declines in CPUE have been observed in the SESSF, NSW and New Zealand  BET are widely distributed in their preferred depth range throughout the southern oceans  Genetic studies concluded that gene flow between different areas was sufficient to prevent any differentiation of stocks. This genetic homogeneity could result from dispersal of larvae or juveniles, however it is difficult to estimate rates of migration or migration patterns  Little is known of the early life stage of BET but settlement occurs at about 45- 50cm LCF  BET are caught in the SESSF on the east and south east slope and east of Long 155°E (Tasmantid Seamounts)  BET are now known to be a relatively long lived, late maturing species, which appears to be highly susceptible to line & hook fishing.  The detailed structure of the BET stock has not been captured in the population models developed to date – but the declines in catch rate observed across fisheries in different parts of the species’ range suggest a reasonably well mixed stock that has been significantly impacted by fishing. 53. The RAG thanked Kevin Rowling for his presentation. 54. The RAG noted an ongoing FRDC Project “Developing improved methods for stock assessment in spatially complex fisheries using Blue eye Trevalla as a case study”. 55. The RAG discussed BET stock structure hypotheses; true stock separation between the eastern seamounts and the shelf; and a single meta-population with adult residency. The RAG supported the hypothesis that the BET was a single Australian stock separate to New Zealand. 56. Catches east of Long 155°E are currently excluded in the Tier 4 assessment however catch rates are included. The RAG discussed continuing to exclude catches taken east of Long 155°E (Tasmantid seamounts) from the assessment and noted that catches in the reference period (1997-2005) were very high and may have been due to operators attempting to qualify for higher quota allocation. The RAG also noted that catches from the eastern seamounts have become a substantial proportion of the total catch in the last two years 57. The RAG recommended that catches east of long 155°E be included in the reference period. 58. Andrew Penney explained that the east coast and seamounts have different densities of BET and changes in densities in each area can be used to index BET abundance in that area. This information can be used separately or together if the different CPUEs can be standardised. Action item. Malcolm Haddon undertook to provide further information on the CPUEs from the east coast and seamounts at the November meeting.

59. The RAG queried if the standardised CPUE is representative of stock abundance due to the presence or absence of Orcas. Pease (2012) estimated a reduction in CPUE and a loss in catch of up to 60% in the 25% of shots when Orcas were present an overall reduction of about 15%. The proportion of Orca presence and effect in Pease is consistent with work done by Ian Knuckey. The RAG requested that Malcolm Haddon include fishing mortality attributable to Orcas as discards as sensitivity (if possible) when exploring different scenarios in the reference years.

Action item. Malcolm Haddon to include fishing mortality attributable to Orcas as discards as a sensitivity (if possible) when exploring different scenarios in the reference years.

Orange Roughy – results of AOS

60. Rudy Kloser and Tim Ryan gave a presentation on the preliminary results of the Acoustic Optical Survey (AOS) that was conducted in the eastern Orange Roughy (OR) zone during the winter of 2012:  Survey objectives included obtaining an acoustic estimate of spawning OR biomass in the eastern zone and to collect biological data to support target strength, age, length, weight and reproductive potential analyses.  The AOS may not get representative biological samples due to the nature of the fishing undertaken, i.e. avoiding the main spawning plume.  All years of the AOS since 2006 have indicated stock recovery, however it should be noted that the recruitment into the fishery is from pre-fishing recruitment and it should be noted that proportion spawning has been shown to be variable.  There has been an increase in OR fecundity by 75% in 2010 compared with an estimate in 1992.  Changes in OR biology should be factored into an assessment.  Results from 2012 are reasonably consistent with 2011.  St Helen’s had 37% less biomass than 2010, St Patrick’s 15% more biomass. It should be noted that inter annual variability may produce short term reversals contrary to an expected upward recovery trend.  Estimates from the 2012 AOS of the maximum combined spawning biomass at St Helens and St Patricks Head are between 17,672 and 19,194t. These estimates are about 25% lower than estimates from the 2010 survey, (proportion spawning has been shown to be variable). 61. Rudy Kloser presented the preliminary results of the July 2013 eastern zone AOS:  Significant OR aggregations were observed at both St Patricks and St Helens grounds.  These aggregations were dynamic at both grounds.  The area of extent at St Patricks was larger than previous years.  To have large aggregations at both St Helens and St Patricks is unusual – historically one or the other ground has been the dominant biomass ground  Although unquantified it appears the biomass was large and very different to the situation encountered in 2012. 62. Rudy Kloser presented a summary of the surveys at St Patrick’s and St Helen’s 1999 to 2013:  Proportions of surveyed stock are variable between St Patricks and St Helens, for most years usually one is dominant.  1999 survey had high cv’s.  2006, 2009 and 2010 appeared to have similar schooling behaviours, 2012 was odd schooling behaviour at St Helens.  2013 schooling behaviour was similar to 2010 except high biomass appears to be at both grounds.  The snapshot biomass from the surveys in all years is higher that the model estimated biomass.  There was a decline (~15 years) in OR mean age between 1987 and 2010.  There has been a 73 % increase in length standardised fecundity since the start of the fishery in 1987. This can be inferred as a density dependency effect as stock reduced to <20% B0 and suggests a positive feedback for recovery. 63. Rudy Kloser made some observations and raised some questions regarding strategies for managing the OR eastern zone fishery:  Assuming resolution of the model age data and acoustic biomass conflict may not be possible, what other indicators could be used to meet harvest strategy objectives that ensures an acceptable recovery time frame and long term sustainability.  Is it possible to have low level fishing under a research quota (RQ) arrangement to ensure appropriate monitoring.  What is the risk of a staged opening with monitoring to determine the appropriate trajectory based on an adaptive management plan? Can a simple approach of taking a small percentage of biomass each year meet the HCR.  Should broader habitat/associated species indicators be included.  Can we reduce cost of annual surveys by AOS to facilitate long term monitoring and what is the appropriate timing for more detailed biological/AOS survey and model synthesis of results (i.e. every 4 years) costs? 64. The RAG recommended:  Work up the 2012 and 2013 AOS results.  A Tier 1 assessment be undertaken in 2014.  The assessment incorporates tuning as per Francis (2011). It is hoped that by reducing the weighting of the age data as per Francis that this may help resolve the conflict between the age data and the AOS results.  Review the single stock structure hypotheses for the base case and sensitivities.  A workshop is conducted in mid-2014; refer to Judy Upston’s Future Work document as a basis for agenda planning. The workshop should include; designing a modelling approach, how data is used in the model review of single stock hypotheses. The RAG agreed that some elements of the assessment should be externally reviewed. 65. The RAG does not support continuing the AOS until the current work is written up and a way to utilise the existing AOS data in the stock assessment is developed.

66. The RAG asked for an update on catches of OR taken in the recently reopened Western Deepwater Shark (WDS) area.

Action item – AFMA to provide details of catches of OR taken in the reopened WDS area. 67. The RAG agreed that the current OR incidental bycatch TACs in the eastern, southern and western zones were still appropriate and recommended the current TACs remain for the next season. 68. The RAG noted there was little OR fishing on the Cascade Plateau (< 6t) during the 2011/12 season and therefore no data to update an assessment. The RAG recommended that the TAC for the Cascade Plateau remain at 500t.

Orange Roughy Zone 2013/14 TAC (t) Recommended 2014/15 TAC (t) Eastern 25 25 Southern 35 35 Western 60 60 Cascade Plateau 500 500

69. The meeting adjourned at 17:00 Wednesday 25 September

General Updates

Report on management issues

70. Marcus Finn, AFMA Manager of the Commonwealth Trawl Fishery, gave a report to the RAG. It is summarised below:  Pink Ling. After initially rejecting the proposed TAC, the AFMA Commission accepted a notional TAC of 250t in the eastern zone with AFMA to develop additional management arrangements if a 200t trigger was reached. AFMA implemented three closures in areas of historic high catch rates; however this measure did not constrain catches sufficiently. A Closure Direction to limit Pink Ling catches in the eastern zone to a daily limit of 50kg will come into effect on 26 September. Future management arrangements, including TAC splitting are being considered.  Orange Roughy Conservation Program. The program is currently being updated.  Updates of the location of seabird and seal interactions. 71. The RAG raised concerns that:  The 50kg Ling daily limit may cause avoidance and this would degrade the CPUE series.  It is emphasised to the observer section that it is important to get good coverage of the fleet during the Direction period.  There may be an “observer effect” and fishing activities, location and discard behaviour. Simon Boag undertook to provide a list of boats that he believed filled logbooks in correctly at all times to enable a comparison to be made with the rest of the fleet.

Action item. Simon Boag undertook to provide a list of boats that he believed filled logbooks in correctly at all times to enable a comparison to be made with the rest of the fleet.

72. The RAG noted that:  There are three data points from the Fishery Independent Survey (FIS) and this survey is designed to reduce the reliance on CPUE as an index of abundance for many of the main quota species.  Concerns with the accuracy of logbook records emphasised the importance of conducting a FIS.

AFMA Commission’s comments on the 2013/14 TACs

73. Blue eye Trevalla  Agreed with RAG concerns about the CPUE indices  Asked that AFMA engage with NZ about their experiences, and whether there were any signals that in hindsight could have signalled stock decline  Noted a need to quantify Orca depredation  Asked that any positive impacts from gulper closures be acknowledged. 74. Pink Ling comments have previously been noted.

ABARES Fishery Status Report 2012

75. FRDC will be producing the Key Australian Fish Stock 2014 report. These reports may replace the ABARES Fishery Status Reports in the future.

Observer Report

76. Deferred until the next meeting.

Upper Slope Dogfish management arrangements

77. AFMA submitted a paper “4.5 Upper Slope Dogfish Management Strategy – Review of management arrangements applying to ‘Power Handline”. The RAG was asked to provide scientific advice on:  the proposal to remove the trigger limit and move on provisions for the ‘power handline’ method when fishing in gulper shark closures on the Tasmantid Seamounts.  Monitoring requirements for the power handline method when on the Tasmantid Seamounts.  The RAG noted that the estimated survivability of Upper Slope Dogfish caught by the power handline method was approximately 95%. 78. The RAG provided the following advice:  The RAG had difficulty in providing advice because even though there was assumed to be 95% survivability of Dogfish after capture; the RAG did not have an estimate of the appropriate level of potential biological removals (PBR) for these species. The RAG noted that the risk of exceeding the PBR will dictate the appropriateness of monitoring measures. However the RAG noted that it was important in species like Upper Slope Dogfish that the interaction rate is kept as low as possible even with high survivability.  The RAG queried whether further monitoring was required if previous 100% coverage had indicated low mortality.  The RAG noted that fine scale detection of interaction rates will require high observer coverage. Outcome 79. The RAG supports a 10% monitoring program, as per normal and the removal of the trigger limit on Upper Slope Dogfish for the power handline method if interaction rates are as low as those indicated by previous monitoring.

Research priorities for 2013/14

80. SESSF outputs will be put forward to the AFMA Research Committee

Update of SESSFRAG issues

81. The Chair reported briefly on the results of recent SESSFRAG meetings. SESSFRAG had discussed the application of discount factors and noted that the paper by Gavin Fay et.al. has been finalised. SESSFRAG noted the papers main conclusions:  that there is no default discount factor suited to all species on a particular Tier level but the appropriate discount needed to maintain risk equivalence needs to be determined on a species by species basis  that stability of CPUE is not a good reason not to apply the discount factor. SlopeRAG noted, however, that SESSFRAG had not explicitly changed its previous advice about when the discount factor need not be applied and requires specific advice from SESSFRAG as to whether stability in the CPUE estimate is sufficiently precautionary not to apply the appropriate discount factor

Action item – SESSFRAG to provide advice by the next RAG meeting if stability in the CPUE estimate is sufficiently precautionary not to apply the appropriate discount factor? SESSFRAG

82. Other SESSFRAG matters reported:  SESSFRAG had accepted that current funding would allow AFMA to conduct a winter FIS only, every second year.  Inclusion of discards in catch rates in Tier 4 assessments should be made by the appropriate RAG on a species by species basis dependant on the accuracy of the data set.  Discards in Tier 1 assessments should be estimated within the model.  When calculating MYTACs: if changes in RBCs for successive years are within 10% use the average of those years to set the TAC, if this is not the case then use the RBC to set the TAC. State catches and all discards would need to be reviewed yearly on a species basis. SlopeRAG agreed with this approach in principle but pointed out that there was little difference in the amount of work to monitor a Tier 3 or 4 MYTAC when compared to doing a new assessment.  A decline of CPUE below the 95% confidence interval of the predicted CPUE triggered a review of the Silver Warehou MYTAC. As this was not unexpected SESSRAG agreed not to undertake a new Tier 1 assessment.  Some secondary species in the SESSF are suitable to be managed at a lower target. AFMA has agreed that the Ribaldo and Redfish target should be amended to B40.  Orange Roughy east are scheduled for a SlopeRAG Tier 1 assessment next year. Contingent on this year’s results the RAG will decide at the next meeting if Pink Ling will also be assessed. 83. The next SlopeRAG meeting will be held in the Freycinet Room at CSIRO from 6-8 November 2013. 84. Meeting closed at 11:30am. Attachment 1 - Summary of agreed changes to Pink Ling base case, 23 – 25 September 2013

Data  Include non-trawl, subject to adequate spatial coverage  Tune model on number of landings/operations  Exclude Kapala data  Length frequencies to be stratified and scaled by depth and zone, details to be provided by Patrick Cordue  Keep port and on board data separate  Age/length data. Include unsexed data; however look at the growth curves and down-weight the age/length data so growth is consistent with the sexed data.  Shift the selectivity change in the eastern zone to 1999/2000 to match the CPUE time blocks

Modelling  Use the mid-year spawning female population estimates definition in SS3 if possible  Constant CV for trawl CPUE between years  Data sets to be weighted in the model as per Francis (2011)  Use CPUE time blocking with linking vessels if robust. Patrick Cordue to provide information of the “robustness” of linking vessels  No cohort specific growth  Use age and length based selectivity as a sensitivity.  Allow the model to estimate M with a prior of 0.2 and CV of 0.2. Use the prior for the eastern zone for the western zone if necessary

Spatial Structure  Do not use zone based spatial structure

Sensitivities  Run all the standard sensitivities and include the zone based and full spatial models using the settings from the base case. Action items arising from SlopeRAG 23 – 25 September 2013

Action item Person Result responsible

Plot of coverage of non-trawl Pink Ling effort to be Malcolm Haddon Circulated, provided to inform the decision whether non-trawl waiting Andre’s data is used in the Pink Ling assessment. comments, Nov meeting Test robustness of the CPUE filtering decisions, e.g. Patrick Cordue Document species and depth in Patrick Cordue’s draft circulated. To assessment. be discussed at Nov meeting Do the ISMP observers record net and mesh sizes, Ross Bromley, Yes, net and if so to what detail, is this entered into the database. AFMA mesh sizes recorded and entered into the database Blue eye Trevalla. An estimate of fishing mortality Malcolm Haddon Done due to Orca is to be included as discards as a sensitivity exploring different years back to 2001 (if possible). Malcolm Haddon undertook to provide further Malcolm Haddon information on the CPUEs from the east coast and seamounts at the November meeting. Orange Roughy. The 2012 and 2013 AOS results to Rudy Kloser and Ongoing be worked up as soon as possible. Tim Ryan Provide the RAG with details of Orange Roughy AFMA 6790 kg catch taken during this season in the reopened western Deepwater shark area. Simon Boag to provide a list of boats that he Simon Boag Not to be believed filled logbooks in correctly at all times to continued enable a comparison to be made with the rest of the fleet. AFMA to provide an ISMP observer report to the AFMA Mike Yates RAG at the November meeting. present and will present at Nov meeting The RAG requires an explicit decision from SESSFRAG Ongoing SESSFRAG on the application of discount factors when the standardised CPUE is flat. Approach SESSFRAG to consider recommending AFMA/SESSFRAG Ongoing Francis (2011) tuning method as the most appropriate way of weighting data for all stock assessments.