Locust Displacing Winds in Eastern Australia Reassessed with Observations from an Insect

Locust displacing winds in eastern Australia reassessed with observations from an Insect Monitoring Radar

Zhenhua Hao1*, V. Alistair Drake2, Leesa Sidhu1 and John R. Taylor1

1School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences

UNSW Canberra, 2612, Australia.

2School of Physical, Environmental and Mathematical Sciences

UNSW Canberra 2612 and Institute for Applied Ecology, University of Canberra, Canberra 2601, Australia.

*E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +61 414989987, Fax: +61 (2) 6268 8786

Fig. S1 Seven-year mean November, January and March wind-direction distributions at 990 m and 395 m AGL at 21:00 AEST for nights that were suitable for MP5+ nights. The figures at the top-right corner show the number of such nights for each month. The black lines indicate the average resultant vector length R for all distributions. Equal-area plots; rings represent 10, 20, and 30 nights. Outer ring represents R = 1. Table S1 Comparison of MP5+ predictions and MA and DM occurrences using contingency tests at 21:00 AEST at 395 m and 990 m AGL.

MA DM 395m 990 m 395 m 990 m Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. Prediction based on MP5+ criteria + + 13 24 18 7 8 5 10 12 9 4 5 4 − + 41 54 91 13 18 38 29 32 67 11 14 27 + − 26 33 14 32 49 27 29 45 23 35 52 28 − − 100 69 85 128 105 138 112 91 109 130 109 149 total 180 180 208 180 180 208 180 180 208 180 180 208 p 0.61 0.82 0.64 0.12 0.92 0.44 0.50 0.47 0.28 0.74 0.60 0.79 Note: Each row shows the number of nights in each contingency category: MP+ and MA+ (++), MP− and MA+

(− +), MP+ and MA‒ (+ −), and MP− and MA‒ (− −). The p values are for the chi-squared contingency tests and Fisher’s exact test when the cell values are < 5. Table S2 Comparison of MP3+ and MP5+ predictions and strong migration occurrence at 21:00 AEST at 395m and 990m.

990m 395m Nov. Jan. Mar. Nov. Jan. Mar. total 180 180 208 180 180 208 Prediction based on MP3+ criterion + + 5 4 10 10 13 26 − + 2 2 2 10 2 11 + − 92 132 105 87 123 89 − − 81 42 91 73 42 82 p 0.45 0.64 0.07 0.71 0.37 0.04* Prediction based on MP5+ criterion + + 2 2 2 5 5 6 − + 5 4 10 15 10 31 + − 37 55 30 34 52 26 − − 136 119 166 126 113 145 p 0.64 1 1 0.70 0.88 0.88 Note: N represents the number of nights for migration occasions. Each row shows the number of nights in each contingency category: MP+ and MA+ (++), MP‒ and MA+ (− +), MP+ and MA‒ (+ −), and MP‒ and MA‒ (− −). The p values are for the chi-squared contingency tests and Fisher’s exact test when the cell values are < 5.