Organize Demand Into Sectoral Components

ECON 3067: Energy Economics 1

Course Description This course introduces students to the Economics of Energy at the micro level. It will cover themes such as:  The demand for and supply of renewable and non-renewable energy , i.e. fossil fuels (viz. crude oil, natural gas, coal ), electricity and renewables. In terms of supply, the course will cover the issues associated with the exploration, production, transportation, processing or refining and marketing of fossil fuels and production of renewable energy  Energy pricing and markets ,  Introduction to Energy and the Economics of the Environment

Purpose of the Course It is designed to introduce students to basic energy issues, and to allow them to better understand the energy business and introduce students to the tools required for energy analysis and provide its microeconomic foundations

Instructor information . Name of instructor(s)- Michael John . Office address and phone Mobile 771-0904 . E-mail address : [email protected], . Office hours: To be advised . Communication policy – preferred method of contact - E-mail

Goals/Aims To provide students with the analytical tools to facilitate the overall understanding of the energy sector

General Objectives At the end of the course students should:  Have a greater awareness of the micro issues associated with energy  Appreciate the critical contribution of energy to our domestic economy  Appreciate the role of the energy industry in the global economy

Themes/Topic and Unit Objectives Overview and Introduction to Energy Economics

Students should be able to :  Define Energy Economics  List factors accounting for the complexity of the energy sector  List the multi-dimensional interactions energy of the energy industry. Readings

Bhattacharyya S.C.: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag., 2011 Chapter 1 ______Energy Sector Management Issues: An Overview, International Journal of Energy Sector Management 1(1):13-33.

[1] Stevens P.J : An Introduction to Energy Economics in Stevens (ed) The Economics of Energy Vol. 1 Edward Elgar, Cheltenham also Journal of Energy Literature, Vol 6 (2) December 2 000 and Vol. 7(1) June 2001.

Unit 1 Introduction to Energy Demand Analysis

Theme - Energy Basics, Energy Data and Energy Balances

Students should be able to :  Classify the energy on the basis of sources  List the components of the energy supply chain  Outline the energy accounting framework  List components of a country’s Energy Account ,  Analyze energy balances  Use energy conversion factors,  Identify energy balance entries requiring special treatment or information

Readings

Bhattacharyya S.C: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag, 2011 Chapter 2 IEA(2004) Energy Statistics Manual http://www.iea.org/stats/docs/statistics_manual.pdf Karbuz, S Conversion Factors and Oil Statistics, Energy Policy; Jan 2004, Vol. 32 Issue 1, 41-45

Theme - Energy Demand Analysis

Students should be able to :  Trace the evolution of demand analysis,  Differentiate the economic foundations of a) consumer energy demand from b) producer energy demand,  List alternative approaches for energy demand analysis  Organize demand into sectoral components  Evaluate leading selected demand models

Readings

Bhattacharyya, S.C: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag, 2011 Chapter 3-4 Bhattacharyya, S C. and Timilsina, G R. Energy demand models for policy formulation : a Comparative Study of Energy Demand Models, World Bank Policy Research Working paper WPS 4866 (2009) Bhattacharyya, S C. and Timilsina, G R. A Review of Energy systems models International Journal of Energy Sector Management 4(4) 2010, 494-518 EIA : Model Documentation http://www.eia.gov/tools/models/models.cfm IAEA Model for Analysis of Energy Demand, www. ub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/ CMS 18_web.pdf 2006 IEA , World Energy Model http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/ World_Energy_Model.pdf SEI Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) http://sei-us.org/ Energy Modeling Ryan, David L and Plourde Andre : Energy Demand Models and Modelling, Canadian Building Energy End- use Data and Analysis Centre, April 2008 , http://www.cbeedac.com/publications /documents/energydemand_002.pdf

[2] Theme - Demand Forecasting

Students should be able to :

 List approaches to demand forecasting  Evaluate the different approaches to energy demand forecasting

Readings

Bhattacharyya, S.C.: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag, 2011 Chapter 5 Mehra M, Bharadwaj A. (2000) Forecasting the Demand for Electricity http://www.teriin.org/upfiles//pub/papers/ft30.pdf Shell Scenarios: An Explorer’s guide http://www-static.shell.com/static /public/ downloads/brochures /corporate_pkg/scenarios/explorers_guide.pdf Swisher et al : Tools and Methods for Integrated Resource Planning ;Improving energy efficiency and protecting the environment http://uneprisoe.org/IRPManual/IRPmanual.pdf

Theme - Demand management

 Define demand side management (DSM),  Critique the justification for DSM,  Summarize the concept of Load management,  Define Energy efficiency,  List the challenges associated with energy efficiency,  Identify and discuss the energy saving opportunities,  Assess the cost effectiveness of energy saving opportunities  Summarize the concept of the rebound effect

Readings

Bhattacharyya S.C.: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag, 2011 Chapter 6 Greening, Lorna A, Greene, David L.,& Difiglio Carmen : Energy Efficiency and consumption –the rebound Effect- a Survey, Energy Policy 28 (2000) pp.389-401. IEA : Energy Efficiency Governance (2010) CSPM Economic Analysis Of Demand-Side Programs and Projects Califonia Standard Practice Manual, Califonia USA. 2001 http://www.energy.ca.gov/greenbuilding/ documents/ background/07J_CPUC_STANDARD_PRACTICE_MANUAL.PDF CRA : Primer on Demand side management, With special emphasis on price responsive programmes Charles River Associates, Califonia (2005) http://siteresources.worldbank.org /INTENERGY/Resources/PrimeronDemand-SideManagement.pdf EC : GREEN PAPER on Energy Efficiency or Doing More With Less http://eur- lex.europa.eu/ LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=COM:2005:0265:FIN:EN:PDF Swisher et al : Tools and Methods for Integrated Resource Planning ;Improving energy efficiency and protecting the environment http://uneprisoe.org/IRPManual/IRPmanual.pdf

[3] Unit 2 Supply Economics

Theme - Energy Investment Analysis

 Explain the main characteristic of energy projects  Distinguish between Economic and Financial Investment Analysis

Readings

Asian Development Bank : Key Areas of Economic Analysis of Projects, ADB 2003 ______: Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects , ADB, 1977 Bhattacharyya S. C.: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag, 2011 Chapter 7-11 IEA Overseas Investments by Chinese National Oil Companies: Assessing the drivers and impacts http://www.iea.org/papers/2011/overseas_china.pdf

Themes: Economics of fossil fuel supply  Exploration  Development  Production  Fossil fuel production economics  Resource rents  Exhaustible Resources and depletion

 Explain the activities involved in the non-renewable energy supply system  Describe the risk involved in exploration projects  Illustrate the use of decision trees in exploration investment decisions  Summarize the alternative legal arrangements for resource exploration  Critique the methods for resource classification  Distinguish between field level and industry level economics  Define the concept of resource rent  Outline the simple model of extraction of exhaustible resources

Readings Bhattacharyya S C.: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag, 2011 Chapter 7-11 Boopsingh, Trevor; Oil and Gas Development – A View from the South 1988 Chap 3,4. French Institute for Petroleum Publications; Oil and Gas Exploration and Production. 2001 Chap.3 , 4 and 5. Abdel –Al, Hussein and Schmelzlee , Robert K.– Petroleum Economics and Engineering ; An Introduction 1978 Chap, 2,6 and 7 The Energy Value Chain UTC Investment series Trinidad and Tobago Unit Trust Corporation http://www.ttutc.com/news/article/energy/value_chain.pdf Tordo S. Fiscal Systems for Hydrocarbons, Design Issues, W orld Bank Working Paper No 123 Tordo S, David Johnston and Daniel Johnston :Petroleum Exploration and Production Rights Allocation Strategies and Design Issues World Bank Working Paper No. 179 Otto, James ; et al: Mining Royalties: a Global Study of their Impact on Investors, Government, and Civil Society (Vol. 1 of 2) Van Meurs P. Government Take and Petroleum Fiscal Regime www.krg.org/.../ Government_Take _and_Petroleum_Fiscal_Regimes__2008_06_30_h14m7s53.doc

[4] SPE Petroleum Resources Management System Guide for Non-Technical Users, http://www.spe.org/spe- app/spe/industry/reserves/index.htm Historical Facts on the Petroleum Industry of Trinidad and Tobago – GSTT www.gstt.org WCI The Coal Resource :A Comprehensive Overview of Coal, World Coal Institute , 2009 Centre for Liquefied Natural Gas www.lngfacts.org Natural Gas Supply Association – Natural gas .org- www.naturalgas.org Section 1, 2,5 Foss, Michelle M: Introduction to LNG, Centre for Energy Economics, University of Texas at Austin http://www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon/lng/documents/CEE_INTRODUCTION_TO_LNG_FINAL.pdf

Theme :Refining and Transportation of fossil fuels

 Classify refineries  Evaluate the issues affecting refinery profitability  Perform simple valuations of crude delivered to a refinery  Compare and contrast transportation options  Summarize the operation of the tanker market  Explain the determination of freight rates

Readings

Cornot-Gandolphe The Challenges of Further Cost Reductions for New Supply Options (Pipeline, LNG, GTL) 22 World Gas Conference 2003, www.cedigaz.org/Fichiers/pdf_papers/challengesof further.pdf. Tom Meisner: A Practical Guide to US Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline Economics, Oil and Gas Journal Research Centre/Penn Energy,2009. Pirog, Robert L. :Petroleum Refining:Economic Performance and Challenges for the Future, Congressional Research Service,˜ The Library of Congress. http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metacrs7271/m1/1/high_res_d/RL32248_2005May09.pdf ______: Conversion Unit Yield Analysis, 2008 Fuels refinery Performance Analysis, February 17, 2010 Solomon & Associates http://solomononline.com/documents /Whitepapers/ CU_YA_WWW .pdf Okimi H. Comparative Economy of LNG and Pipelines in Gas Transmission , World Gas Conference 2003, Japan http://www.igu.org/html/wgc2003/WGC_pdffiles/ 10392_1045815366_9772_1.pdf Stopford,M. Maritime Economics, Routledge 2nd ed. 2006 Chapters 3 & 4

Emmerson C. & Stevens P.: Maritime choke points in the global energy system: charting a way forward, Chatham House, 2012

Theme :Economics of Electricity Supply

 Explain the basic concepts related to Electricity Systems  List the challenges associated with energy efficiency,  Identify and discuss the energy saving opportunities,  Assess the cost effectiveness of energy saving opportunities

Readings

[5] Srivastava, A.K , Kamlasadan, D.P, Sankar, S. & Al-Olimat K.S. Electricity Markets : An Overview and comparative Study, International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 2007 Vol. 5 (2) pp. 169-200. Anderson D. : Electricity Generation Costs and Investment Decisions: A Review UK Energy Research Centre

Working Paper February 2007 Bhattacharyya Subes C.: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag, 2011 Chapter 10 Blyth W.: The Economics of Transition in the Power Sector, IEA Information Paper 2010 Heptonstall P : A Review of Electricity Unit Cost Estimates, Working Paper UKERC/WP/TPA/2007/006 IEA : Opportunities to transform the Electricity Sector in Major Economies, IEA, 2010 Meetamehra. Demand : Forecasting for Electricity Turvey R & Anderson D. : Electricity Economics, World Bank July 1977 Swisher et al : Tools and Methods for Integrated Resource Planning ;Improving energy efficiency and protecting the environment http://uneprisoe.org/IRPManual/IRPmanual.pdf

Theme: Economics of Renewable Energy

 Identify the renewable energy options available  Explain the economic issues hindering adoption

Readings

Awerbuch S. and Saute R. Exploiting the Oil-GDP Effect to Support Renewables Deployment, SPRU Electronic Working Paper Series 2005 , http://www.awerbuch.com/shimonpages /shimondocs/sewp129.pdf Bhattacharyya S. C.: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag, 2011 Chapter 11 Holmgren, J. et al : Opportunities for Bio Renewables, Hydrocarbon Engineering, June 2007 . http://www.uop.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/UOP-Opportunities-for-Renewables-in- Petroleum-Refineries-Tech-Paper.pdf IEA : Renewable Energy Essentials: Solar heating and cooling, : Hydropower :Geothermal Energy (2010) :Concentrating Solar Thermal power _____: Cogeneration and Renewables: Solutions for a Low Carbon Future (2011) ______: Clean Energy Progress Report, (2011) IEA.org Kaygysuz : The Role of Hydropower for Sustainable Energy Development, Energy Sources Part B (2009) Taylor & Francis

Unit 3 Energy markets

Students should be able to :  Trace the evolution of the International Petroleum Industry  List the major players in the international petroleum market

[6]  Identify the key drivers of energy demand  Examine the role of OPEC in the petroleum market  Identify the components of the Natural Gas value chain  Describe and evaluate the key features of fossil fuel supply contracts (with special emphasis on Natural Gas)  Appraise the different approaches to Natural Gas Pricing  Identify the characteristics of the LNG business  Evaluate the supply/ demand outlook for Crude Oil, Coal , Natural Gas and LNG

Themes: Energy markets

 Energy Pricing  Energy Taxation  International oil market o Anatomy of Oil Prices  Natural Gas markets  Electricity Markets  Introduction to Coal markets

Readings

General Bhattacharyya S C.: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer -Verlag 2011 Chapter 12-16 ______Determinants of Energy Prices in World Energy Report 2005, RWE, http://www.rwe.com /app/ Mediencenter/Detailansicht.aspx?Mandant=rwe_holding&mID=906&catID=141 ______Analysis of the Scope of Energy Subsidies and Suggestions for the G-20 Initiative , Joint report prepared for submission to the G-20 Summit meeting Toronto (Canada) 26-27 June 2010 IEA, OPEC, OECD, World Bank Joint Report Coal Markets Martin-Amouroux J.M. Coal: The Metamorphosis of an Industry, International Journal of Energy Sector Management 2(2) 2008 162-180 Zientara, P.: Polish Government policies for Coal (1989-2006) International Journal of Energy Sector Management 1(3) 2007 273-294. Li, R The Evolution of the International Steam Coal Market, International Journal of Energy Sector Management 4(4) 2010, 519-534 ______Coal and Steel, , World Coal Institute,2009

Gas and LNG Stevens P. The Shale Gas Revolution Developments and Changes, Chatham House, 2012 Stern J and Rogers H Transition to Hub based Gas Pricing in Continental Europe, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2011 Rogers, H.V LNG Trade-flows in the Atlantic Basin: Trends and Discontinuities, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies March 2010 National Gas Company of Trinidad and Tobago Limited – Gasco News. Special Anniversary Editions 22nd, and 30th. Energy Research Associates: LNG in the 21st Century : The First Decade Vol. 1. Executive summary EIA The Global LNG Market EIA 2003 Nazemi ,A New Mechanisms of LNG Pricing in Asia, IGU International Gas Conference 2009 http://www.igu.org/html/wgc2009/papers/docs/wgcFinal00070.pdf Chris Holmes C. and Rogers D : The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Global LNG Trade, International Gas Conference 2009 http://www.igu.org/html/wgc2009/papers/docs/wgcFinal00673.pdf McGuire, Gregory Understanding Gas Prices Mimeo UWI 2003 Jensen J T, Development of A Global LNG Market: Is it likely? If so when? Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, Oxford UK

[7] Julius De Anne and Afsanah Mashayeki The Economics of Natural Gas: Pricing Planning and Policy Chaps 1-3

Crude Oil

Fattouh, Bassam, Kilian L. & Mahadeva Speculation in Oil Markets: What we have learned so far? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2012 ------Oil Markets in 2021 Calm or Turbulent Waters? Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, 2012 ------: An Anatomy of the Crude Oil Pricing System , Oxford Institute for Energy Studies 2011 ------Oil Market Dynamics, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies 2010 “Oil Market Basics” Energy Information Administration Yergin Daniel: Its Still the One, Foreign Policy September –October 2009 BP Statistical Review of World Energy Latest issue, www.bp.com McGuire, G. : Crisis and Aftermath – An Assessment of Petroleum Policy in Trinidad and Tobago 1973-80. Chap 4. Salameh, Mamdouh G. China’s Global Oil Diplomacy Benign or Hostile IAEE Newsletter Quarter 1, 2010

Stevens P. :The Arab Uprisings and the International Oil Market, Chatham House, 2012 Koosh, Victor Market Dynamics can be Challenging Oil and Gas Financial Journal, January 2009 Jan Hein Jesse and Coby Van Der Linde: Oil Turbulence in the Next Decade ; An Essay on High Oil Prices in a Supply constrained World., Netherlands Institute of International Relations- Clingendael. June 2008 – World Energy Outlook International Energy Agency Latest Issue.www.iea.org ______Frequently Asked Questions about the Petroleum Industry, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, www.OPEC.org ______Monthly Oil Market Report Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries –www.OPEC.org. ______Annual Energy Outlook ( Latest Issue) Energy Information Administration www.eia.doe.gov

Electricity Markets Srivastava, A.K , Kamlasadan, D.P, Sankar, S. & Al-Olimat K.S. Electricity Markets : An Overview and comparative Study, International Journal of Energy Sector Management, 2007 Vol. 5 (2) pp. 169-200.

Unit 4 Energy and the Environment

Students should be able to :  Identify the various interactions between energy and the environment  Explain the concept of the Environmental Kuznets curve  Compare and contrast the options to address energy related environmental problems  Distinguish between pollution from stationary and mobile sources  Evaluate the policy options

Readings Bhattacharyya S C.: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer- Verlag, 2011 Chapter 23-25 Panayotou T. Economic Instruments for environmental management and sustainable development, UNEP Paper 16 http://www.conservationfinance.org/guide/guide/images/40_panay.pdf UNEP Global Environmental Outlook 3, 2002 Shahrin A and Naili A.M.A Introduction to Environmental Kuznets Curve http://economics.dstcentre.com/Introduction %20to%20Environmental%20Kuznets%20Curve%20By%20Azmi%20Shahrin.pdf

[8] Assignments Students will complete three assignments during the semester. The first -an Essay provides an opportunity to practice the analysis of industry issues. The second -a mid-term Examination designed to indicate the extent of mastery of the first half of the course. The final assignment – a problem sheet will provide practice in the simple quantitative issues covered during the semester

Course Assessment

Assessment is designed to establish the student understanding of the material and the ability to critically examine energy matters and issues. Students will be assessed on the following basis: Course Work 40%  Course Work Mid-Term Examination : 20 %  Course Work Essay Unit 3: 10% (5% essay, 5% essay presentation in tutorial)  Course Problem Sheet : 10 %

Final Examination: 60 %. This examination will be two hours long and consist of five essay questions of which students will be required to select three questions.

Teaching Strategies Students will have three (3) contact hours for weekly.

 Lectures - Wednesday (EU), 5.30-&.30p.m. (TCB 3.1 )  Tutorials- Tuesday 6.00 -7.00 p.m. (FSS 102 E)  Wednesday 1.00-2.00 p.m. (SAC FL 18) Lectures will be delivered with the aid of power point presentations. Student participation will be encouraged and students are advised to read assigned material before the scheduled class, so that they can participate meaningfully in the class and tutorial discussion. Tutorial attendance is mandatory.

Faculty regulations allow for the Course Lecturer to debar from the Final Examination students who do not attend at least 75% of tutorial classes. The Course Lecturers and tutors will be monitoring and subsequently enforcing this regulation

Recommended Resources

Essential Text Subes C. Bhattacharyya: Energy Economics Concepts, Issues, Markets and Governance, Springer-Verlag, 2011

Other Resources Stopford,M. Maritime Economics, Routledge 2nd ed. 2006 James G. Speight : Handbook of Petroleum Analysis Wiley-Interscience, 2001 James G. Speight : Handbook of Petroleum Product Analysis Wiley-Interscience, 2002 Richard Seba : Economics of World Wide Petroleum Production Trevor Boopsingh; Oil and Gas Development – A View from the South 1988 Robert Schmelzlee and Hussein K. Abdel – Petroleum Economics and Engineering ; An Introduction 1978

[9] Additional Information Students are reminded of the University’s Examination Regulations for First Degrees, Associate Degrees, Diplomas and Certificates including GPA Regulations:

19. Any candidate who has been absent from the University for a prolonged period during the teaching of a particular course for any reason other than illness or whose attendance at prescribed lectures, classes, practical classes, tutorials, or clinical instructions has been unsatisfactory or who has failed to submit essays or other exercises set by his/her teachers, may be debarred by the relevant Academic Board, on the recommendation of the relevant Faculty Board, from taking any University examinations. The procedures to be used shall be prescribed in Faculty Regulations.

[This regulation (19) will be enforced. Students failing to attend a minimum of 75% of the tutorial classes will be debarred from taking the final Examination. Consequently, students are strongly advised to promptly bring to the attention of their Tutors/Lecturer evidence of extenuating circumstances that prevent them from attending tutorial class/lectures. Evidence of such circumstances will not be accepted at the end of the semester when the list of students to be debarred in this course is published.]

97. (i) Cheating shall constitute a major offence under these regulations (ii) Cheating is any attempt to benefit one’s self or another by deceit or fraud. (iii) Plagiarism is a form of cheating. (iv) Plagiarism is the unauthorized and/ or unacknowledged use of another person’s intellectual effort and creations howsoever recorded, including whether formally published or in manuscript or in typescript or other printed or electronically presented form and includes taking passages, ideas or structures from another work or author without proper and unequivocal attribution of such source(s), using the conventions for attributions or citing used in this University.

Grading policy The University Grading System will apply.

Course Activities Planned

1. Attendance at the Post National Budget Forum 2012, students are advised to check the Departmental Website (http://sta.uwi.edu/fss/economics/index.asp) after the presentation of the National Budget for 2012/13 in the Parliament.

2. Attendance at the Conference on the Economy (COTE2012) on October 11 – 12, 2012 students must register for attendance with the Economics Student Union (ESU) or the Department of Economics.