The Full Report Is Available From

13 September 2012 The full report is available from www.daff.gov.au/abares Summary of key issues  According to the September edition ABARES Australian Crop Report, winter crops in Australia face mixed prospects across the country heading into spring, reflecting varied winter rainfall and soil moisture conditions.  Overall, winter crop production is forecast to be lower than the record harvest of last season, reflecting dry conditions in Western Australia and parts of south-eastern Australia. In contrast, conditions have been positive in northern New South Wales and Queensland, where crops are forecast to achieve above average yields.  Total winter crop production is forecast to be 36.2 million tonnes in 2012–13, around 20 per cent lower than last year’s record production, but 17 per cent above the five-year average to 2010- 11.  Wheat production is forecast to fall by 24 per cent to around 22.5 million tonnes but the supply of wheat in Australia is forecast to remain high with stocks estimated to be around 11.5 million tonnes at the beginning of August 2012, around double what these were in August 2009, reflecting significantly high production in the past two seasons.  Lower than average winter rainfall, an above average number of frosts and a dry September to- date have meant that grain and canola crops in south-west NSW and north-west Victoria require sufficient and timely spring rainfall to reach maximum yield potentials.  Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased by 135 gigalitres this week and are at 97 per cent of total capacity.  Sea surface temperatures are predicted to remain near El Niño values until the end of 2012. Combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, there is likely to be below average spring rainfall in southern, central and northern Australia.  The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$365 a tonne in the week ending 11 September 2012, compared with US$366 a tonne in the previous week.  The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$326 a tonne for the week ending 5 Sep 2012, compared with US$335 a tonne in the previous week.  The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$660 a tonne in the week ending 11 September 2012, compared with US$654 a tonne in the previous week. 1. Climate

1.1. Notable events

 Following lower than average winter rainfall, an above average number of frosts and a dry September, grain and canola crops in south-west New South Wales and north-west Victoria require sufficient and timely spring rainfall to reach maximum yield potential.

 Favourable seasonal conditions in central Australia have resulted in high numbers of young bulls becoming available for export. A large shipment has recently been mustered from around Alice Springs and Northern New South Wales for export.  While sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain close to El Niño values, most other indicators, such as trade winds and tropical cloud patterns are well within the neutral range. Climate models suggest that sea surface temperatures are likely to remain close to El Niño values until the end of 2012 (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’ 11 September 2012).

 The Indian Ocean Dipole has been showing values consistently above positive for the last seven weeks and are likely to stay positive over spring. Positive values generally favour lower than average spring rainfall in southern, central and northern Australia (Bureau of Meteorology ‘ENSO Wrap-Up’ 11 September 2012).

1.2. Rainfall this week For the week ending 12 September 2012, there was little or no rainfall across most of Australia. Frontal systems produced rainfall across southern areas of Australia during the week. The highest total recorded rainfall for the week was 220 mm at Mount Read in western Tasmania. For further information, go to www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/weeklyrain.shtml.

Rainfall for the week ending 12 September 2012 1.3. Temperature anomalies this week Spatial temperature analyses are based on historical weekly temperature data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology. These temperature anomaly maps show the departure of the maximum and minimum from the long- term average. Temperature anomalies are calculated using high resolution gridded datasets from 1911 onwards. For further information on temperature anomalies, go to www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/.

Maximum temperature anomalies for the week ending 11 September 2012

Minimum temperature anomalies for the week ending 11 September 2012 1.4. Rainfall outlook The rainfall forecast below is produced from computer models. As it contains no input from weather forecasters, it is important to also check local forecasts and warnings by the Bureau of Meteorology.

Total forecast rainfall for the period 13 to 20 September 2012 2. Water

2.1. Water availability Water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin increased by 135 gigalitres (GL) this week and are at 97 per cent of total capacity. This is 10 percentage points or 2228 GL more than this time last year. Water storages in the Murray–Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)

Information on irrigation water available in the Murray–Darling Basin from 1 January 2001 to 13 September 2012 is shown above. The top horizontal (red) line indicates the storage level at the similar time last year. The bottom horizontal (orange) line indicates the amount of ‘dead’ or unusable storage. 2.2. Water allocations The current water allocations for the 2012–13 water trading season for licence holders in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia water systems are summarised in the following table.  Allocations to general security entitlements increased from 28 per cent to 57 per cent in the NSW Macquarie Valley.

Allocations at Allocations at 5 September 2012 (%) 12 September 2012 (%) NSW Murray Valley High security 100 100 General security 100* 100* NSW Murrumbidgee Valley High security 95 95 General security 64* 64* NSW Lower Darling High security 100 100 General security 100* 100* NSW Macquarie Valley High security 100 100 General security 28* 57* NSW Hunter Valley High security 100 100 General security 100 100 NSW Lachlan Valley High security 100 100 General security 0* 0* NSW Lower Namoi High security 100 100 General security 14* 14* NSW Upper Namoi High security 100 100 General security 100* 100* NSW Gwydir Valley High security 100 100 General security 49* 49* NSW Border Rivers High security 100 100 General security 100 100 NSW Peel Valley High security 100 100 General security 78* 78* Victoria Murray Valley High reliability 61 61 Low reliability 0 0 Victoria Goulburn High reliability 100 100 Low reliability 0 0 Allocations at Allocations at 5 September 2012 (%) 12 September 2012 (%) Victoria Campaspe High reliability 100 100 Low reliability 54 54 Victoria Loddon High reliability 100 100 Low reliability 0 0 Victoria Bullarook High reliability 100 100 Low reliability 100 100 Victoria Broken High reliability 44 44 Low Reliability 0 0 South Australia Murray Valley High security 100 100 *Carryover water may also be available.

2.3. 3. Commodities

3.1. Production and commodities  The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$365 a tonne in the week ending 11 September 2012, compared with US$366 a tonne in the previous week.  The world coarse grains indicator price (US no. 2 yellow corn, free on board Gulf ports) averaged US$326 a tonne for the week ending 5 September 2012, compared with US$335 a tonne in the previous week.  The world canola indicator price (Rapeseed, Europe, free on board Hamburg) averaged US$660 a tonne in the week ending 11 September 2012, compared with US$654 a tonne in the previous week.  The world cotton indicator price (the Cotlook ‘A’ index) averaged US 85.2 cents a pound in the week ending 12 September 2012, 1.3 per cent higher than in the previous week.  The world sugar indicator price (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) averaged US19.4 cents a pound in the week ending 12 September 2012, largely unchanged from previous week.  The United States Department of Agriculture has set the 2012–13 tariff free sugar quotas at 1.1 million tonnes, the minimum amount to which the United States is committed under its World Trade Organisation obligations.  Winter crops in Australia face mixed prospects across the country heading into spring, reflecting varied winter rainfall and soil moisture conditions. Overall, winter crop production is forecast to be lower than the record harvest of last season, reflecting dry conditions in Western Australia and parts of south-eastern Australia. In contrast, conditions have been more positive in New South Wales and Queensland, where crops are forecast to achieve above average yields.  Total winter crop production is forecast to be 36.2 million tonnes in 2012–13, around 20 per cent lower than last year’s record production, but 17 per cent above the five-year average to 2010-11.  For the major winter crops, wheat production is forecast to fall by 24 per cent to around 22.5 million tonnes; barley production is forecast to fall by 19 per cent to around 7.0 million tonnes; and canola production is forecast to fall by 2 per cent to around 2.8 million tonnes.  Although wheat production is forecast to fall, the supply of wheat in Australia is forecast to remain high with stocks estimated to be around 11.5 million tonnes at the beginning of August 2012, around double what these were in August 2009, reflecting significantly high production in the past two seasons.  Australian wheat exports in July 2012 totalled 2.3 million tonnes, the eighth consecutive month when exports have exceeded 2 million tonnes.  The Australian canola indicator price (Portland, Victoria) averaged $530 a tonne in the week ending 10 September 2012, largely unchanged from the previous week.  The Queensland young cattle indicator price (330-400 kg live weight C3) fell 2 per cent to 370 cents a kilogram in the week ending 7 September 2012. Young cattle prices in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia also fell.  Saleyard lamb prices declined in most states in the week ending 7 September 2012. The lamb price indicator (18- 22kg fat score 2-4) declined in Western Australia (7 per cent), Victoria (5 per cent) and New South Wales (4 per cent). In contrast, the indicator price rose in South Australia (13 per cent). Total lamb saleyard throughput rose 14 per cent compared with the previous week.  Changes to the wholesale prices of fruit were mixed in the week ending 8 September 2012. Rockmelon and strawberry wholesale prices were higher but watermelon (seedless), pineapple (smoothleaf) and banana (cavendish) were lower.  Changes to the wholesale prices of vegetable were also mixed in the week ending 8 September 2012. Pumpkin (grey bulk), beans (round) and onions (brown) wholesale prices were higher but iceberg lettuce, broccoli and cauliflower prices were lower. 3.2. Recent movements in fruit and vegetable prices Weekly wholesale prices for selected fruit, Melbourne market

Weekly wholesale prices for selected vegetables, Melbourne market 3.3. Selected world indicator prices 3.4. Crop indicator prices 3.5. Livestock indicator prices 4. Data attribution  Climate Bureau of Meteorology  Weekly rainfall totals: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/index.jsp  Monthly and last 3-months rainfall percentiles: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/  Temperature anomalies: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/  Rainfall forecast: www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp  Seasonal outlook: www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead  Drought statement: www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/drought.shtml  ENSO Wrap-Up: www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/  Soil moisture (BoM, CSIRO and the former Bureau of Rural Sciences): www.eoc.csiro.au/ awap /  Water New South Wales  New South Wales Water Information: http://waterinfo.nsw.gov.au/  New South Wales Office of Water, Department of Environment, Climate Change and Water: www.water.nsw.gov.au/Home/default.aspx

 Available water determinations register: www.wix.nsw.gov.au/wma/DeterminationSearch.jsp? selectedRegister=Determination  Snowy Hydro: www.snowyhydro.com.au/lakeLevels.asp?pageID=47&parentID=61&grandParentID=4 Queensland  Sunwater: www.sunwater.com.au  seqwater: http://seqwater.com.au South Australia  SA Water: www.sawater.com.au/SAWater/Environment/TheRiverMurray/River+Murray+Levels.htm  South Australian Department of Water: www.waterforgood.sa.gov.au/ Victoria  Goulburn–Murray Water: www.g-mwater.com.au Water trading  Waterexchange: www.waterexchange.com.au  Commodities Fruit and vegetables  Datafresh: www.datafresh.com.au Mutton, lambs, wheat, barley and grain sorghum  The Land: hardcopy or online at http://theland.farmonline.com.au/markets.aspx Cattle, mutton, lambs and pigs  Meat and Livestock Australia: www.mla.com.au/Prices-and-markets Canola  Weekly Times: hardcopy 