Joshua M. Epstein January, 2012
DEMOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
Current Appointments
2011 – Present Institute of Medicine’s (IOM) Committee on Identifying and Prioritizing New Preventive Vaccines for Development
2010 – Present Director, Center for Advanced Modeling in the Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences (CAM), Johns Hopkins University
2010 – Present Professor, Dept. of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University
2010 – Present Joint Appointments: Applied Math and Statistics, Economics, International Health, Biostatistics, Environmental Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University
2010 Amherst College Honorary Doctor of Science
2007- Present Adjunct Professor, Graduate School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh
1996-Present External Professor, Santa Fe Institute
Personal Data
Professor, Department of Emergency Medicine Director, Center for Advanced Modeling in the Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences Johns Hopkins University 5801 Smith Avenue Suite 3220, Davis Bldg Baltimore MD 21209 Email: [email protected] Phone: 410-735-6419
Education and Training Undergraduate 1969 - 1973 University of Massachusetts, Music Composition and Theory Principal Instrument: piano, with training in voice and orchestral conducting. (Transferred to Amherst College, February 1973).
1976 B.A. Amherst College, Independent Scholar with Thesis in Political Economy, “Bank Control of Industrial Corporations in the U.S. Economy.” Mathematics major before assuming Independent Scholar status.
Doctoral/Graduate 1981 Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Political Science. Fields of Specialization: Security Studies, and Economics (in the MIT Economics Department). Postdoctoral 1976-1977 Amherst College Memorial Fellowship
1977-1978 Amherst College Memorial Fellowship 1977-1979 Ford Foundation Arms Control Fellowships | Arms Control Project, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
1980-1981 Institute for the Study of World Politics Fellowship
1980-1981 Ford Foundation Dual Expertise Fellowship | Soviet/East European Area Studies and International Security/Arms Control
1982-1983 Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship
1983-1984 Rockefeller Foundation International Relations Fellowship
Professional Experience 1980 – 1981 Consultant, The RAND Corporation
1980 – 1981 Post-Doctoral Research Fellow, Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
1981 – 1982 Post-Doctoral Fellow, Center for International Affairs, Department of Government, Harvard University
1982 – 1983 International Affairs Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
1983 – 1985 Rockefeller Foundation International Relations Fellow in residence as a Guest Scholar, The Brookings Institution
1983 – 1993 Visiting Lecturer, the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University
1985 – 1987 Research Associate, The Brookings Institution
1987 – 1996 Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies Program, The Brookings Institution
1989 – 1990 Adjunct Professor of Security Studies, Georgetown University
1992 – 2008 Faculty Member, Complex Systems Summer School, Santa Fe Institute
1992 – Present Member, The New York Academy of Sciences
1993 – 2003 Founding Book Series Editor, The Princeton Studies in Complexity, Princeton University Press
1995 – Present Editorial Board, Complexity, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
1996 – Present External Professor, The Santa Fe Institute
1996 – 2010 Senior Fellow, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution
1998 – Present Associate Editor, Artificial Life and Robotics, Springer-Verlag
2000 Member, The MacArthur Foundation Research Network on Economic Inequality and Social Interactions, The MacArthur Foundation
2002 – Present External Affiliate, The Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study, George Mason University
2004 – 2010 Director, Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution 2005 – 2006 Member, National Academy of Sciences Institute of Medicine Committee on Advances in Technology and the Prevention of their Applications to Next Generation Biowarfare Threats
2007– Present Editorial Board, Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness
2007– Present Visiting Professor, School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh
2008 – Present Research Associate, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, The Australian National University College Of Business & Economics
RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
Peer-reviewed original research articles
[Note: Books, Book Chapters, and Monographs are listed under EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES]
1. Epstein J. "Soviet Vulnerabilities in Iran and the RDF Deterrent," International Security. 1981; 6(2): 126- 59.
2. Epstein J. "On Conventional Deterrence in Europe: Questions of Soviet Confidence," Orbis. 1982; 26(1): 71-86.
3. Epstein J. "Assessing the Military Balance: Defense Analysis and the Defense Debate," The Brookings Review. 1985; 3(3): 16-20.
4. Epstein J. "Dynamic Analysis and The Conventional Balance in Europe." International Security. Spring 1988; 12(4): 154-65.
5. Epstein J. "The 3:1 Rule, The Adaptive Dynamic Model, and the Future of Security Studies," International Security. 1989; 13 (4): 90-127.
6. Epstein J. "War With Iraq: What Price Victory?" Brookings Discussion Papers. 1991.
7. Axtell R, Epstein J. "Agent-Based Modeling: Understanding Our Creations." The Bulletin of the Santa Fe Institute. 1994; 9(4): 28-32.
8. Axtell R, Epstein J. "Artificial Societies and Generative Social Science." Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Artificial Life And Robotics (AROB). 1996; 1(1): 33—34.
9. Axtell R, Axelrod R, Cohen M, Epstein J. "Aligning Simulation Models: A Case Study and Results." Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory. 1996; 1(2): 123-141
10. Epstein J. “Zones of Cooperation in Demographic Prisoner’s Dilemma.” Complexity. 1998; 4(2): 36-48.
11. Epstein J. “Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science.” Complexity. 1999; 4(5): 41-60.
12. Epstein J. "Learning to be Thoughtless: Social Norms and Individual Computation." Computational Economics. 2001; 18 (1) 9-24.
13. Axtell R, Dean J, Gumerman G, Swedlund A, Chakravarty S, Harburger J, Hammond R, Parker J, Parker M, Epstein J. “Population Growth and Collapse in a Multi-Agent Model of the Kayenta Anasazi in Long House Valley.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2002; 99(3):7275-7279.
14. Epstein J. “Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2002; 99(3): 7243-7250. 15. Gumerman G, Swedlund A, Dean J, Epstein J. “The Evolution of Social Behavior in the Prehistoric American Southwest.” Artificial Life. 2003; 9(4): 435 - 444.
16. Burke D, Epstein J, Cumming D, Parker J, Cline K, Singa R, Chakravarty S. “Individual-based Computational Modeling of Smallpox Epidemic Control Strategies.” Academic Emergency Medicine. 2006; 13(11): 1142-1149.
17. Longini I, Halloran M, Nizam, A, Yang Y, Xu S, Burke D, Cummings D, Epstein J. “Containing a Large Bioterrorist Smallpox Attack: A Computer Simulation.” International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 2007; 11(2): 98-108.
18. Epstein J, Bobashev G, Goedecke D, Morris R, Wagner D, Yu F. “Controlling Pandemic Influenza: The Role of International Travel Restrictions.” Public Library of Science One Journal. 2007; 2(5): e401.
19. Epstein J, Bobashev G, Goedecke D, Yu F. “A Hybrid Epidemic Model: Combining the Advantages of Agent-Based and Equation-Based Approaches.” Proceedings of the 2007 Winter Simulation Conference. 2007; (9)12:1532 – 1537.
20. Epstein J. “Why Model?” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation. 2008; 11(4):12.
21. Epstein J, Hammond R, Parker J, Cummings, D. “Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease: Mathematical and Computational Explorations.” Public Library of Science One Journal. 2008; 3(12): e3955.
22. Epstein J. “Modelling to contain pandemics.” Nature. 2009; 460:687.
23. Lempel H, Hammond R, Epstein J. “Economic Cost and Health Care Workforce Effects of School Closures in the U.S.” Public Library of Science Currents: Influenza. 2009.
24. Parker J, Epstein J. “A global-scale distributed agent-based model of disease transmission.” ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation. 2011. 21(2).
25. Epstein J, Pankajakshan R, Hammond R. "Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning." Public Library of Science One Journal. 2011; 6(5).
26. Lee BY, McGlone SM, Wong KF, Yilmaz SL, Avery TR, Song Y, Christie R, Eubank S, Brown ST, Epstein JM, Parker JI, Burke DS, Platt R, Huang SS. Modeling the spread of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) outbreaks throughout the hospitals in Orange County, California. Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol. 2011. 32(6):562-72.
27. Hammond R, Epstein J. “Exploring Price-Independent Mechanisms in the Obesity Epidemic.” Public Library of Science One Journal. (Submitted).
Extramural Sponsorship
Grants [Note: All funding figures represent Epstein’s portion of the grant in question]
Current
09/30/2008 - 07/31/2013 Behavioral Epidemiology: Applications of Agent-Based Modeling to Infectious Disease *NIH Director’s Pioneer Award 1DP1OD003874-01 NIH/NIGMS $2,809,250 PI: Epstein, 6.0 Calendar The major goal of this award is to extend and deepen the modeling of infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and disaster response by incorporating realistic human behavioral adaptation in public health modeling.
10/1/2008 – 09/30/13 Preparedness and Emergency Response Research Centers: A PHS Approach RFA-TP-08-001 NIH/CDC $1,750,000 PI: Epstein, 2.0 Calendar The broad objective of this project is to construct an agent-based computational model of the Public Health Preparedness and Emergency Response System. This model will incorporate insights from five other collaborating groups, including: indicators of successful health system performance, difficulties of coordination and communication with vulnerable communities, the role of critical infrastructure, and core amplifiers and suppressors of important tipping points in the system.
07/1/2009 – 06/30/2014 Models of Infectious Disease Agents Study: Computational Models of Infectious Disease Threats II RFA-GM-09-003 NIH-NIGMS $1,240,000 PI: Burke/Epstein, 1.0 Calendar The major goals of this project are to develop computational models of the interactions between infectious agents and their hosts, disease spread, prediction systems, and response strategies to develop novel policies and powerful strategies for risk communication, preparedness, and mitigation in the event of outbreaks of pandemic flu, MRSA, or other novel pathogens.
07/01/2010 – 06/30/2012 PACER Johns Hopkins University Department of Emergency Medicine 2010-ST-061-PA0001 DHS/ONR $2,337,439 PI: Kelen, 1.28 Calendar The major goal of this project is to create the National Center for the Study of Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response (PACER) to lead a consortium studying how the nation can best prepare for and respond to potential large-scale incidents and disasters.
12/01/2010 – 11/30/2014 Causes and Interventions for Childhood Obesity: Innovative Systems Analysis R01-HDG64685 NIH $55,000 PI: Wang, 0.12 Calendar The major goal of this project is to study multilevel causes of childhood obesity and simulate the effects of potential interventions. The specific aims are to use integrated conceptual framework and statistical analysis approaches to individual and environmental factors on childhood obesity to determine the complex causal path; to determine the key contextual drivers of the childhood obesity epidemic at the population level over the past three decades using innovative systems analysis methods, nationally representative data sets, and environmental measures; to use agent-based models (ABM) to test simple rules that could explain individuals’ EBRB and obesity risk and changes in population level outcomes; to identify and characterize potential intervention/policy strategies; and to project/simulate possible impacts of these strategies on future trends in the childhood obesity epidemic based on the simulation models.
07/01/2011-06/30/2014 Ultrahigh-throughput Virus-Host cell PicoReactor System for Predictive Modeling of Viral Evolution DARPA-BAA-10-93 $1,000,000 PI: Epstein, 1.2 Calendar The major goal of this project is to develop computational models for predicting viral evolution under selection pressure from multiple evolutionary stressors. Modeling work will be both theoretical and empirically-driven, the latter utilizing nucleic acid sequences and other data developed by the Prophecy team via experiments in vivo and in two different in vitro systems. The theoretical work will be computational, and will fuse Evolutionary Agent-Based Modeling and Dynamic Bayesian Networks.
07/01/11 – 06/30/16 Johns Hopkins Systems-Oriented Pediatric Obesity Research and Training Center (JHU SPORT) RFA-HD-10-001 NIH $2,109,988 PI: Wang, 0.84 Calendar
The major goal of this project is to establish a Center of Excellence on childhood obesity research and training, based on a transdisciplinary systems science framework and methodologies. The specific aims are to use systems modeling approaches with integrated application of spatial analysis guided by behavioral models and basic sciences regarding food intake and body weight regulations to study the impacts of environmental and policy interventions; to use epidemiological research to study the cascading influences of macrosocial environmental factors on individual-level behaviors and biology using existing and newly collected data from large cohorts of children and their families in the U.S. and in China; to evaluate a novel system-wide, multilevel intervention that can become a model of effective and sustainable community-based environmental interventions and policy changes; to establish a computational workshop for systems modeling and GIS-based investigation (Research Resource Core and Training Core); and to construct the first national-scale agent-based obesity model, including environmental, behavioral, economic, and physiological drivers of the epidemic available to the entire project for policy design, empirical research, and training.
01/01/12-06/30/12 Migration Model Pilot Project R24HD042854 NICH/NIH $5,000 PI: Cherlin, 0.3 Calendar
The major goal of this project is to construct a simple model of migration within China, including recent migration from the rural, agricultural west to the industrial, urban east. This dynamic will be represented in an agent-based model, replicating the overall migratory movements from 1995 to 2000.
Pending
07/01/12 – 06/30/17 Elderly Disaster Resilience Modeling: An Agent-Based Approach PA-11-263 (Epstein/Barnett) NIH PI: Epstein, 1.2 Calendar
The major goals of this project are to use agent modeling to examine disaster impacts on diverse elderly cohorts, identifying novel practical interventions for reducing disaster-related morbidity and mortality among them. We will model a variety of representative disaster scenarios based on actual and hypothetical events, including: a heat wave (based on the 1995 Chicago heat wave); earthquake (based on recent examples); and pandemic influenza (based on the recent H5N1 and H2N1 infectious disease episodes). To evaluate their impacts as mediators of disaster-related morbidity and mortality, we will model various social network patterns, degrees of information access, infrastructural factors, socio-demographic variables, and physical, cognitive capacities among our age- structured elderly population agents.
12/01/2 – 11/30/17 Agent_1.0: From Synapses to Societies RFA-GM-13-006 NIH PI: Epstein, 4.2 Calendar
The major goals of this project are to use agent-based computational modeling to generate observed social trajectories of health behaviors by explicitly generating large-scale spatial and network dynamics from neural drivers across a range of important health phenomena. The specific aims are: to develop the next generation of agent model, deepening the neural representation, scaling up the populations, and applying this method to Vaccine refusal, Contagious fear and mass psychogenic illness, Non-adherence to medication regimes, and Addictive eating behavior and obesity.
Previous
1992-1997** Santa Fe Institute and World Resources Institute 2050 Project MacArthur Foundation $2,000,000* *Amount is estimated **Dates are estimates
06/01/1999-05/31/200 Agent-Based Models of Social Interaction and the Emergence of Multi-Agent Institutions IRI-9820872 NSF $290,000 PI: Epstein/Axtell
06/18/02-07/01/03 Model of Selective Vaccination and Quarantine 2002-6-2 Alfred P. Sloan Foundation: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health $150,000 PI: Epstein/Burke
07/1/02-06/30/05 Social Influences and Smoking Behavior Grant #5009 The American Legacy Foundation $350,000 PI: Epstein 01/1/04-12/31/06 Economic Governance Initiative MacArthur Foundation $225,000
04/15/07-03/31/08 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Advances in Modeling Economic Resilience DHS/PNNL $50,000
12/05/07-12/31/07 New Directions in Migration Modeling 1R13HD057739-01 NIH/NICHD $100,000 PI: Epstein/Singer
09/01/07-01/31/08 Toward a Warning Indicator for Decentralized Rebellion Against a Central Authority The United States Institute for Peace $15,000 PI: Epstein
10/1/07-06/30/08 Social and Economic Impacts of Influenza Epidemics and Policies to Contain Them The World Bank $30,000 PI: Friedman
04/01/04 - 04/01/09 Models of Infectious Disease Agents Study: Computational Models of Infectious Disease Threats GM-03-008 NIH/NIGMS $135,940 PI: Burke/Epstein, Calendar2.0 The major goals of this project are to develop computational models of the interactions between infectious agents and their hosts, disease spread, prediction systems, and response strategies. *Winner, 2006 Department of Health and Human Services Secretary’s Distinguished Service Award
07/07/06-07/06/09 Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine National Center for the Study of Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response. Domain C: Modeling and Simulation of Complex Interactions of Bioterrorism Epidemiology, Behavior and Economic Effects BAA 05-008 DHS/ONR $298,002 PI: Epstein, 1.5 Calendar The major goals of this project are to improve the nation’s preparedness and the ability to respond in the event of a high consequence natural or manmade disaster to alleviate the event’s effects by developing and disseminating best scientific practices.
10/01/07-03/30/10 Collaborative Research: Modeling Interaction Between Individual Behavior, Social Networks And Public Policy To Support Public Health Epidemiology SES-0729262 NSF $90,000 PI: Epstein, 0.5 Calendar The major goals of this project are to build computational agent-based models of social networks and public policy; to conduct theoretical investigation using game theory and discrete dynamical systems of the dynamic co-evolution of social networks and public policies; and to build illustrative realistic case studies that demonstrate the results of our research to aid in planning for and responding to large scale infectious disease outbreaks.
09/30/2009 – 08/31/2010 The Integrative Social Relations, Health and Aging Project 3R01AG034052-02S2 NIH/NIA $75,000 PI: Epstein/Cacioppo, 0.0 Calendar The major goals of this project are producing two founding workshops in Computational Social Neuroscience, bringing together leaders in Agent-Based Modeling, Social Neuroscience and Affective Dynamics, and even perhaps to form a new Scientific Society for Computational Social Neuroscience; and a translation technique from Agent-Based Models directly into equations (recursive functions) by a qualified mathematical logician/computer scientist, under my supervision, and to co-author a paper on this for publication. * This is a supplemental award to 1DP1OD003874-01, Behavioral Epidemiology: Applications of Agent-Based Modeling to Infectious Disease, as reimbursement for of the costs for the above stated goals. -02S2 will be used to directly cover workshop expenses.
EDUCATIONAL ACTIVITIES
Educational Publications:
Book Chapters
1. Epstein J. "Horizontal Escalation: Sour Notes of a Recurrent Theme." In The Use of Force, Edited by Robert Art and Kenneth Waltz, 541-552. Lanham: University Press of America, 1983. *The same chapter slightly revised appears in International Security, Winter 1983-84, 8(3): 19-31.
2. Epstein J. "On the Mathematical Biology of Arms Races, Wars, and Revolutions." In 1992 Lectures in Complex Systems, edited by Lynn Nadel and Daniel L. Stein. Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1994.
3. Epstein J. "The Adaptive Dynamic Model of War." In 1992 Lectures in Complex Systems, edited by Lynn Nadel and Daniel L. Stein. Reading: Addison-Wesley, 1994.
4. Epstein J, Axtell R. “Coordination in Transient Social Networks: An Agent-Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement.” In Behavioral Dimensions of Retirement Economics, edited by Henry Aaron, 161-186. New York: Russell Sage / Washington: Brookings Press, 1999.
5. Epstein J, Dean J, Gumerman G, and Axtell R. “Understanding Anasazi Culture Change Through Agent- Based Modeling.” In Dynamics in Human and Primate Societies: Agent-Based Modeling of Social and Spatial Processes, edited by George J. Gumerman and Timothy Kohler, 179-206. New York: Oxford University Press 2000.
6. Epstein J, Axtell R, Young P. “The Emergence of Economic Classes in an Agent-Based Bargaining Model.” In Social Dynamics, edited by Steven Durlauf and Peyton Young, 191-212. Washington: Brookings Press 2001.
7. Epstein J. “Remarks on the Foundations of Agent-Based Generative Social Science.” In Handbook of Computational Economics II: Agent-Based Computational Economics, edited by Leigh Tesfatsion and Kenneth Judd, 1585-1604. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 2006.
Monographs 1. Epstein J. The Extended Calculus of Spencer Brown and Related Areas of Logic and Mathematics [book online]. Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology; 1979.
2. Epstein J. The 1988 Defense Budget [book online]. Brookings Studies in Defense Policy. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press; 1985.
3. Epstein J. The 1987 Defense Budget [book online]. Brookings Studies in Defense Policy. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press; 1985.
4. Epstein J. The Calculus of Conventional War: Dynamic Analysis Without Lanchester Theory [book online]. Brookings Studies in Defense Policy. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press; 1985.
5. Epstein J, Gupta R. Controlling the Greenhouse Effect: Five Global Regimes Compared [book online]. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press; 1990.
6. Epstein J, Cummings D, Chakravarty S, Singa R, and Burke D. Toward a Containment Strategy for Smallpox Bioterror: An Individual-Based Computational Approach [book online]. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution Press; 2004.
Books
1. Epstein, Joshua M. Measuring Military Power. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984.
2. Epstein, Joshua M. Strategy and Force Planning: The Case of the Persian Gulf. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1987.
3. Epstein, Joshua M. Conventional Force Reductions: A Dynamic Assessment. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1990.
4. Epstein, Joshua M; Axtell, Robert L. Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up. Cambridge: MIT Press / Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1996. *Recently translated into Japanese and Swedish
5. Epstein, Joshua M. Nonlinear Dynamics, Mathematical Biology, and Social Science. Reading: Addison- Wesley, 1997.
6. Epstein, Joshua M. Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2006.
Teaching
Classroom instruction 1983 -1990 Public Affairs 549: Topics in Military Policy. Visiting Lecturer, The Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University.
1983 -1990 Public Affairs 556a: Force Planning and the Defense Budget. Visiting Lecturer, The Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University.
1989 -1990 Topics in Security Studies, Adjunct Professor, Security Studies, Georgetown University.
1990 The International Political Economy of Global Warming. Visiting Lecturer, The Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University.
1990 -1993 Complex systems, Simple Models, and Public Policy. Visiting Lecturer, The Woodrow Wilson School and University Council on Science and Technology, Princeton University.
1992 Professor, Complex Systems Summer School, Santa Fe Institute.
1996 -Present External Professor, the Santa Fe Institute. 2008 Professor, Complex Systems Summer School, Santa Fe Institute.
2008 -Present Visiting Professor, School of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh.
Selected Lectures and Presentations 2001 “Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach,” April 12, 2001. Harvard University, Center for International Affairs.
2004 “Co-Organized Workshop on Social Interaction Dynamics,” April 7-9, 2004. The Santa Fe Institute
2004 “Generative Social Science,” April 20, 2004. Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study, George Mason University
2004 “Remarks on the Foundations of Agent-Based Generative Social Science,” May 20-21, 2004. University of Michigan, Computational Economics.
2005 "Agent-Based Modeling of Infectious Disease," February 23, 2005. Model Presentation, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
2005 "A Global Model of Pandemic Flu,” March 22, 2005. Model Presentation, NIH Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) at Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech.
2005 "Games, Networks, and Cascades,” October 7, 2005. Model Presentation, Cornell University.
2005 “Agent-Based Infectious Disease Modeling at Global Scale,” December 5, 2005. The NIH Models of infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS), The Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
2006 "Agent Modeling of Smallpox Containment,” January 26, 2006. Model Presentation, School of Public Affairs, University of Maryland.
2006 "Agent-Based Computational Modeling,” February 6, 2006 - February 9, 2006. Invited Lecture Series on Agent-Based Modeling, Nuffield College, Oxford University.
2006 "Frontiers of Public Health Modeling,” May 10, 2006. Invited Lecture, School of Public Health, Harvard University.
2006 "Agent-Based Models in Public Health,” May 30, 2006 - June 1, 2006. Invited Speaker, York University, Toronto, Canada.
2006 “Progress in Global-Scale Epidemic Simulation,” June 5, 2006. Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech.
2006 "University of Alabama Pandemic Influenza Symposium,” December 5, 2006 - December 7, 2006. Invited Speaker, Birmingham, AL.
2006 "Department of Emergency Medicine Grand Rounds,” December 22, 2006. Invited Speaker, Johns Hopkins University.
2007 “Agent-Based Modeling of Infectious Disease”. March 23, 2007. Grand Rounds. Johns Hopkins Medical School.
2007 "Coupled Contagion Dynamics of Fear and Disease,” November 8, 2007 - November 9, 2007. Invited Speaker, University of Tennessee, Chattanooga.
2007 "Modeling Organizational Adaptation,” November 9, 2007 - November 10, 2007. Model Presentation, Smith School of Business, University of Maryland. 2008 "Santa Fe Institute Complex Systems Summer School,” June 3, 2008 - June 6, 2008. Invited Lecture Series, Santa Fe Institute.
2008 "Mathematical and Computational Modeling,” November 20, 2008. Invited Lecture, Department of Mathematics, Georgetown University.
2009 "University of Maryland Graduate Economics Class," February 23, 2009. Guest Lecturer, University of Maryland. College Park, MD.
2009 " Public Health Adaptive System Studies (PHASYS) Advisory Group Meeting," April 1, 2009. Invited Speaker, University of Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh, PA.
2009 "Simulation Modeling Meeting," April 14, 2009. Invited Speaker, The Brookings Institution. Washington, DC.
2009 "Center for Complexity in Business Inaugural Conference on Complexity in Business,” April 24, 2009. Invited Speaker, Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland. College Park, MD.
2009 "Institute On Systems Science And Health," May 6, 2009. Invited Speaker, University Of Michigan School Of Public Health. Ann Arbor, MI.
2009 "Northwestern Institute on Complex Systems Conference," September 2, 2009. Invited Speaker, Northwestern University. Evanston, IL.
2010 “Agent-Based Computational Modeling in Public Health: From Playground to Planet.” Johns Hopkins Medicine. October 15, 2010. Grand Rounds Invited Speaker. Baltimore, MD.
2011 “Epistemology of Modeling and Simulation Conference.” University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public Health. April 1-3, 2011. Pittsburgh, PA.
2011 “Johns Hopkins University Department of Economics Futures Seminar.” Invited Contributor. April 21-22, 2011. Baltimore, MD.
2011 “Argonne-SFI BNet sponsored ABMS Course.” Argonne National Laboratory. May 16-20, 2011. Invited Speaker. Argonne, IL.
Workshops /Seminars 2002 Professor, Graduate Workshop in Computational Economics. Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM.
2011 Co-Host and Organizer, The Johns Hopkins University and University of Chicago Computational Social Neuroscience Workshop, Johns Hopkins University. Baltimore, MD.
Mentoring
Advisees 1988 Raj Gupta, B.S. Electrical Engineering, Princeton University. Currently Owner, RHG Capital, L.P. Awarded: Princeton University Valedictorian
1989 Daniel Eisenstein , Ph.D. Physics, Harvard University. Currently Professor of Astronomy at the University of Arizona. Awarded: Residence in the Princeton Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton University Valedictorian
1991 Michael O'Hanlon, Ph.D. Public Affairs, Princeton University. Currently Director of Research and Senior Fellow Foreign Policy and Director of Research 21st Century Defense Initiative, The Brookings institution, The Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
1993 Lars Erik Cederman, Ph.D. Political Science, University of Michigan. Currently Professor Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Awarded: 1998 Edgar S. Furniss Book Award
1994-1996 Steven Andrew McCarroll, Ph.D. Computational Biology University of California, San Francisco. Currently Professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School Awarded: Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard Postdoctoral Fellowship, Mass General Hospital Postdoctoral Fellowship
1998-2003 Ross Hammond, Ph.D. Economics, University of Michigan. Currently Fellow, Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, The Brookings Institution. Awarded: IGERT NSF Graduate Fellowship, the Okun-Model Fellowship in Economics
2000-2002 Shubha Chakravarty, Ph.D. Economics, Columbia University Awarded: NSF Graduate Fellowship
2002-2004 J. Nicholas Beldecos, A.B. Politics, Princeton University. Ph.D. Candidate, Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Currently Executive Director, DSF Charitable Foundation.
2007-2009 Matthew A. Raifman, B.A. Economics, Tufts University. Master in Public Policy Candidate at Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
2011 Yu-Hsiang Hsieh, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Department of Emergency Medicine, Johns Hopkins University.
Thesis Committees
1988 Raj Gupta, B.S. Electrical Engineering, Princeton University, Undergraduate Dissertation Committee Chair
1991 Michael O'Hanlon, Ph.D. Public Affairs, Princeton University, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Chair
2005 Anthony Bigbee, Master of Arts in Interdisciplinary Studies, Center for Social Complexity, George Mason University. Dissertation Committee Member
Educational Program Building / Leadership
1993-2005 Princeton Studies in Complexity Book Series, Co-founder and Editorial Board member
1998 The Brookings Institution-Johns Hopkins University Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, Founding member
2002 Testimony to the State of Virginia on George Mason University as first Doctoral program in Social Complexity
CLINICAL ACTIVITIES
None
ORGANIZATIONAL ACTIVITIES
Institutional Administrative Appointments
1996 – 2010 Senior Fellow, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution
2004 – 2010 Director, Center on Social and Economic Dynamics, The Brookings Institution Editorial Board Appointments
1995 – Present Editorial Board, Complexity, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
1998 Founding Book Series Editor, The Princeton Studies in Complexity, Princeton University Press.
1998 – Present Associate Editor, Artificial Life and Robotics, Springer-Verlag.
2007 – Present Editorial Board, Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, the American Medical Association, Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
Professional Societies
1981 Elected Term Member, The Council on Foreign Relations, 1981
1989 Elected Member, The Council on Foreign Relations, 1989.
1991 – Present Member, The Mathematical Association of America
1991 – Present Member, The American Political Science Association
1993 – Present Member, New York Academy of Sciences
RECOGNITION
Congressional Testimony
1984 Statement on the Fiscal Year 1985 Department of Defense Budget Request Before the Senate Committee on the Budget, February 23, 1984.
1985 Statement on NATO's Strategy for the 1990s Before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, October 3, 1985.
1987 Statement on the Fiscal Year 1988 Department of Defense Budget Request Before the Senate Committee on the Budget, February 18, 1987.
1987 Statement on Defense Budget Policy in a Constrained Environment Before the House Committee on the Budget, September 14, 1987.
1987 Statement on the European Conventional Balance Before the Senate Committee on Armed Services, October 20, 1987.
1988 Statement on the European Conventional Balance Before the House Committee on Armed Services, April 13, 1988.
1990 Statement on Defense Spending Priorities for the 1990s Before the U.S. Senate Budget Committee, March 8, 1990.
Major Awards, Honors
2006 Department of Health and Human Services Secretary’s Distinguished Service Award for The NIH Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS). Dr. Epstein chairs both the Behavioral and Global modeling activities. 2008 NIH Director's Pioneer Award, 2008-2013. To support scientists of extraordinary creativity for high-risk projects with the potential to have a transformative impact in the biomedical or behavioral sciences. Conferred by NIH Director Elias A. Zerhouni.
2008 National Training and Simulation Association (NTSA) Award for Outstanding Achievement in Analysis for The Large-Scale Agent Model (LSAM), built under the Direction of Dr. Epstein at the Brookings Center on Social and Economic Dynamics. NTSA presents awards for outstanding achievement in the development or application of models and simulations.
2010 Honorary Doctorate of Science, Amherst College.
Selected Invited Talks and Presentations
2000 "Modeling Civil Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach," October 23, 2000. CIPEC Colloquium Series: Fall Semester 2000, The Center for the Study of Institutions, Population, and Environmental Change (CIPEC).
2001 “An Agent-Based Computational Model of Civil Violence,” February 28, 2001. Center for Naval Analyses.
2001 “Agent-Based Models in Social Science,” May 29, 2001. The MacArthur Foundation.
2001 “Agent-Based Computational Modeling and Generative Social Science,” October 5, 2001. National Academy of Sciences Colloquium, University of California, Irvine
2004 “Advances in Large Scale Modeling of Infectious Disease,” February 23, 2004. National Academy of Sciences, Institute of Medicine
2004 “Agent-Based Computational Game Theory,” March 27, 2004. American Philosophical Society Meetings. California Institute of Technology.
2004 “Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease,” April 27-28, 2004. Institute of Medicine.
2004 “National Academy of Sciences, Institute of Medicine,” June 24, 2004. Agent-Based Epidemiology for Containment Strategies in the Absence of Vaccine.
2004 “New Directions in Network Science,” November 15, 2004. National Academy of Sciences.
2005 "Modeling Social Networks in Epidemiology,” January 5, 2005 - January 6, 2005. National Institute of General Medical Sciences, Bethesda, MD.
2005 "Modeling Political Violence in an Era of Globalization,” January 31, 2005. Model Presentation, MacArthur foundation, Chicago, IL.
2005 "Emerging Diseases: Old Threats and New Challenges,” February 19, 2005. Model Presentation, American Academy for the Advancement of Science.
2005 "Agent-Based Computational Modeling and Generative Social Science,” June 28, 2005. Keynote, GECCO (Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference), Washington, DC.
2005 "Stellwagen Memorial Lecture in Agent-Based Modeling,” July 28, 2005. Keynote, Abt Associates, Cambridge, MA.
2005 "Global Pandemic Flu as one of the Top Ten Financial Risks to the Global Economy,” September 22, 2005 - September 26, 2005. Invited Speaker, Goldman Sachs, New York.
2005 "An Agent-Based Model of Smoking,” September 30, 2005. Invited Speaker, The National Partnership to End Teen Pregnancy. 2005 “Agent-Based Models and Generative Social Science,” October 13, 2005. Keynote Address, Agents 2005 Conference. University of Chicago/Argonne National Labs
2005 “The Global Epidemic Model,” November 4, 2005. The World Bank.
2005 "Pandemic Influenza Modeling: U.S. Perspective meeting,“ November 10, 2005. Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) participant, Deputy Secretary's Conference Room, Humphrey Building, Washington, DC.
2006 "Agent Modeling of Civil Violence,” January 30, 2006. Model Presentation, The Pentagon, Washington, DC.
2006 “Advances in Agent-Based Computational Modeling,” February 25, 2006. Keynote Address. The Society for Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Meetings. Washington DC.
2006 "NIH Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) Consultation on Behavior,” November 2, 2006 - November 4, 2006. Chair and Presenter, University of Pittsburgh.
2006 "Computational Modeling in Disaster Preparedness and Response,” September 14, 2006. Invited Speaker, Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response (PACER) Trade Show, Rayburn House Office Building.
2006 “The role of Modeling in Infectious Disease Mitigation and Containment,” September 19, 2006. Ethical and Legal Considerations in Mitigating Pandemic Disease Conference, The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO).
2006 "In Honor of Thomas Schelling,” September 29, 2006 - September 30, 2006. Invited Speaker, The Thomas C. Schelling Nobel Prize Symposium, University of Maryland.
2006 "Global Pandemic Flu: Health and Economic Impact, “October 19, 2006 - October 20, 2006. Keynote, Falk Auditorium, Brookings Institution.
2006 "Global Pandemic Flu: Containment Strategies,” November 1, 2006 - November 2, 2006. Invited Speaker, National Press Club.
2007 "Agent Based Modeling and Public Policy,” April 3, 2007. Invited Address, RAND, Arlington, VA.
2007 “An Agent-Based Model of Smoking,” April 20, 2007. The Legacy Foundation.
2007 "The Global Epidemic Model (GEM),” April 24, 2007. Model Presentation, the World Bank.
2007 “Agent-Based Models in the Social Sciences”. May 16, 2007. European University Institute, Florence, Italy.
2007 "Agent-Based Modeling in Public Health and International Security,” June 27, 2007. Invited Speaker, The Rockefeller Foundation.
2007 “Agent Based Modeling: Population Health from the Bottom Up,” July 13, 2007. The Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (OBSSR), National Institutes of Health (NIH).
2007 “Public Scientific Presentation - Non-Price Mechanisms In The Obesity Epidemic: Toward an Agent- Based Model,” September 6, 2007. Invited Speaker, The Nutrition Coordinating Committee (NCC) Meeting, National Institutes of Health (NIH).
2007 "Modeling Obesity,” October 12, 2007. Invited Speaker, Obesity Conference, National Institutes of Health (NIH). 2007 “Agent-Based Infectious Disease Models: From Playground to Planet” September 17, 2007. Mediterranean Society for Emergency Medicine. Sorrento, Italy
2007 “Keynote on Computational Simulation” November 3, 2007. The Annual Meetings of the Society for Differential Equations. University of Alabama at Birmingham
2008 "Social and Behavioral Modeling,” January 15, 2008 - January 17, 2008. Model Presentation, Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS), National Institutes of Health (NIH).
2008 "DHS University Network Summit,” March 19, 2008 - March 21, 2008. Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response (PACER) Models Presentation, Washington DC.
2008 "Social and Behavioral Modeling in Epidemiology,” May 4, 2008 - May 7, 2008. Model Presentation, Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) CDC, Atlanta, GA.
2008 "DHHS Secretary's Antiviral Medkit, Home Stockpiling Blue Ribbon Workshop,” June 17, 2008 - June 18, 2008. Closed Blue Ribbon Lead Presentation, DHHS, Washington, DC.
2008 "World Congress on Social Simulation 2008,” July 14, 2008 - July 18, 2008. Keynote Address, George Mason University.
2008 "National Academy of Sciences, Keck Futures Initiatives Conference,” November 12, 2008 - November 16, 2008. Selected Participant, NAS Beckman Center, Irvine.
2009 Address to NIGMS Council on Social and Behavioral Modeling. January 23, 2009. National Institute of General Medical Sciences, Bethesda, MD.
2009 "NIH Roadmap Development effort on the Science of Behavior Change (SOBC),” February 17, 2009 - February 19, 2009. NIH Advisor, Washington, DC.
2009 "Presentation to CDC Medical Residents," March 17, 2009. Invited Speaker, US Capitol. Washington, DC.
2009 "NSF-ANR Workshop on Dynamics in the Human Sciences: Cognitive, Behavioral & Social Complexity," April 27, 2009 - April 28, 2009. Invited Speaker, Saline Royale, Arc-et-Senans, France.
2009 "2009 Preparedness and Catastrophic Event Response (PACER) Scientific Assembly," May 28, 2009 – May 29, 2009. Invited Speaker, Mt. Washington Conference Center. Baltimore, Maryland.
2009 " Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) Network Meeting," June 9, 2009 – June 13, 2009. Invited Speaker. Atlanta, GA.
2009 "Social Networking Consensus Conference Planning Meeting," July 27, 2009 - July 28, 2009. Invited Speaker, The Schroeder Institute/American Legacy Foundation. Washington, DC.
2009 "H1N1 Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) Meeting," August 18, 2009. Model Presentation, US Department of health and Human Services. Washington, DC.
2009 "The National Academy of Sciences and National Institute on Aging Disasters Meeting," September 14, 2009. Invited Speaker, The National Academy of Science’s Keck Center. Washington, DC.
2009 “Agent-Based Modeling and Behavioral Epidemiology,” September 24, 2009. NIH Director's Pioneer Award Symposium. National Institutes of Health.
2009 “Economic Cost and Health Care Workforce Effects of School Closures in the U.S. Press Briefing,” September 30, 2009. The Brookings Institution.
2010 " Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) Network Meeting," September 6, 2010 – September 8, 2010. Invited Speaker. Pittsburgh, PA. 2011 " Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) Network Meeting," June 7, 2011 – June 10, 2011. Invited Speaker and Executive Committee Member. Atlanta, GA.
2011 “3rd Annual PHASYS Advisory Group Meeting.” June 29, 2011. Pittsburgh, PA. Invited Speaker.
2011 “Committee on Identifying and Prioritizing New Preventative Vaccines for Development.” March 8-9, 2011. Committee Member and Modeling Lead. Washington, DC.
OTHER PROFESSIONAL ACCOMPLISHMENTS
Musical Compositions and Activities
Quartet for Violin, Oboe, Clarinet and Bassoon, Op. 1.
Trio for Violin, Clarinet, and Cello, Op. 2.
Quartet for Flute, Viola, Trumpet, and Bass Clarinet, Op. 3.
Assistant Conductor, Amherst College - Mount Holyoke College Orchestra, 1973.
Major Computer Languages And Softwares
C++, C, Java (Ascape), NetLogo, and Mathematica.
Foreign Language Training
French, Russian