Loyola Marymount University s1

LOYOLA MARYMOUNT UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION ______

MBAB 698 Sec 01 STRATEGIC SCENARIO PLANNING SPRING 2005 THURSDAYS 7:15 PM – 10:00 PM 103 Hilton

DR. RICHARD A. DOYON Adjunct Professor of Management [email protected] Office Hours: By appointment Phone: 310-663-5373 Email: [email protected]

______SYLLABUS

Course Overview and Objectives

Scenario Planning is a technique for developing business strategies, turning the uncertainty about the future from being a risk to a strategic advantage. The course will examine a real strategy issue brought to the class by a major Southern California business "client." Using scenario planning, the team will develop a strategy and will present the recommendations to the client at the end of the semester. Critical issues and uncertainties affecting the client's business will be identified, alternative future scenarios described, and strategies developed to strategically position the business to hedge risk and profit from uncertainty.

Teaching Philosophy and Methods

Learning is an exploratory activity best accomplished through “doing” rather than through passive absorption. One way to accomplish this is to use case situations to simulate the “real world.” In this course, by using a real company, our “client,” and by exploring its problems and issues, the class will come as close to “real-world” as is possible in an academic environment.

Another way to make learning an exploratory activity is to encourage creativity and experiential learning. Scenario planning involves both. Scenarios are stories and are best when their developers are creative. The teaching methods in the course are highly interactive. You have the responsibility of becoming involved and participating in the classroom activities and discussions as well as out-of-class discussions as you work with your class group.

Syllabus MBA 698 Sec 1 -- Strategic Scenario Planning Page 1 of 7 Spring 2005 Group involvement is a major part of the course. You will be a member of a group that will work together to develop scenarios and strategies.

Your performance will be assessed based on information provided by you, your fellow group members, and me. The minimum requirements to earn a B grade are: completion of assigned work on schedule and of high-quality; written and oral communication with demonstrated attention to content, format, and presentation; and active involvement in class discussions. The minimum requirements for an A grade are clearly superior work in all areas.

The “Client”

Cinematica, a Manhattan Beach, California company, is poised to become the “Digital Cinema Utility Company™.” Cinematica provides unique financial and satellite deployment services programs for the entertainment industry, enabling Digital Cinema, globally.

Cinematica’s founder, Malcolm Ferris, is a veteran of the Betamax Wars, with 21 years in video and movie distribution in Europe, U.S.A. Canada and Australia. Trained in science and engineering as a development engineer, but with a lifelong interest in Economic History, English Language and Physics, Mr. Ferris brings an unusual combination of financial and technical skills to integrate the diverse needs of Digital Cinema.

At the second meeting of the class, Mr. Ferris will join us and present the class with an overview of his company and its business plan. The class will discuss with Mr. Ferris, the issues that are most challenging to his management team and together will decide on the goal of the class project.

Mr. Ferris may join the class, time-to-time, to answer questions that may have arisen and to participate in the discussions. The class’s final project will be to prepare and deliver a report to Mr. Ferris on recommended strategies that will minimize risk and mitigate uncertainties of the future.

Text and Readings

The Art of the Long view: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Peter Swartz. Doubleday, 1996.

Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Kees Van der Heijden, Wiley, 2005

Additional readings will be assigned during the semester. These readings will be distributed in class as hand-outs or as references on the Web.

Syllabus MBA 698 Sec 1 -- Strategic Scenario Planning Page 2 of 7 Spring 2005 Grading

The grade in the class will be comprised of five core requirements listed below. The core requirements, the number of points, and percentage of your overall grade are listed below: Core Requirement Points % of Total Grade Weekly assignments 300 24% Class Participation 240 30% Final group report - oral 260 26% Final group report - written 200 20% Total 1000 100%

The core requirements are described below:

Weekly Assignments 300 Points Ten weekly assignments of 30 points each will be assigned.

Class Participation 300 points The participation grade will be based on your contribution to class discussions, your ability to answer questions, your mastery of the material, your ability to integrate the learning process for you, for your classmates, and for me. This will be based on your responses to your classmates and your ability to listen and integrate their comments into your own learning. Each class will count for 20 points and each student will be graded for each class. The highest 12 scores will be totaled for the class participation grade.

Final Report A final report will be prepared by the student and the class.

Half the total of 400 points for the Final Report will be earned from the written report and half from the team’s oral report to the class and the “Client.”

Intra-group assessments

In the real world, strategy is most often developed in a group environment. While we expect that each student will give their best effort in group participation, it is the responsibility of the individual and the class to strive for best efforts.

To address the issue of possible inequity in students’ contribution to the class effort, each student’s final grade on the Final Report will be adjusted by a peer assessment. Each student will assess the participation of the other students in the group on a scale of 70 to 110.

Score Interpretation 110 Student participation exceeded normal expectations of a class member 100 % Student participation was as expected of a class member 90 Student participation somewhat less than expected of a class member

Syllabus MBA 698 Sec 1 -- Strategic Scenario Planning Page 3 of 7 Spring 2005 80 Student participation less than expected of a class member 70 Student participation far less than expected of a class member

Each student’s scores from other class members will be averaged (I may throw out the low score or the low and high scores before averaging if I conclude that a score(s) is undeserved). The student’s final report grade will be computed by multiplying the total score for Oral and Written reports by the average assessment of other group members.

Grade Points Percentage A 930-1000 93.0-100% A- 890-929 90.0-92.9% B+ 870-889 87.0-88.9% B 830-869 83.0-86.9% B- 790-829 79.0-82.9% C+ 770-789 77.0-78.9% C 730-769 73.0-76.9% C- 700-729 70.0-72.9% F 000-699 00.00-69.9%

I reserve the right to adjust the overall distribution of class grades and/or individual class participation scores based on class and individual performance. Performance will be rewarded, and nonperformance will not be rewarded. A grade of F is possible.

Assignments and Schedule

Due to the unpredictability of the scenario planning process, weekly assignments will be made at the end of each class. If you miss class, it is your responsibility to contact another student or to check on Blackboard to find out what was assigned. Assignments turned in late will not be accepted.

Assignments are to be emailed to the instructor at [email protected] prior to the start of the class on the due date. If there are attached documents, such as printouts from web pages, you should include relevant text or you can include the URL Web address of the page so that we can post it on Blackboard.

Documents are to be created in Microsoft Word or PowerPoint, as appropriate.

Format the subject line on emailed assignments as follows:

Subject: Last_Name, First_Initial, Week X day month year of class assignment due

For example:

Subject: Doyon, R Week 1 17-Jan-05

Syllabus MBA 698 Sec 1 -- Strategic Scenario Planning Page 4 of 7 Spring 2005 Missed Classes

Students are encouraged to attend each class. Class participation will be graded as a zero for a class missed.

Biography

Dr. Doyon is a strategic planning consultant. He was the co-developer of the "Vision Methodology", a scenario planning methodology, at the Center for Digital Media in the UCLA Anderson School of Management where he served as Assitant Director.

Most recently he was Chief Technology Officer responsible for technology planning, VP of Corporate and Business Development, and on the Board of Directors for BMG Seltec, an enterprise software company. Prior to that, he was Manager Worldwide Software Projects at Avery Dennison; a business strategy consultant; and an executive at various technology companies.

Dr. Doyon has taught Scenario Planning in the MBA program at the UCLA Anderson School and for the UCLA Extension's Entertainment Management Program. He has managed scenario planning projects for Intel, Bell Atlantic, Avery Dennison, General Motors, Sony Pictures Entertainment, the US Government and other organizations.

CLASS SCHEDULE

(IMPORTANT NOTE: This is presented as a guide and may be modified as class progresses – it is your responsibility to find out what the week’s actual assignment is and not rely on this schedule for assignments.)

1. Planning for the Future -- 1/10/05

Readings

Swartz: Introduction up to page 59 Van der Heijden: Introduction to page 52

Mont Fleur Scenarios, Global Business Networks (GBN) http://www.arlingtoninstitute.org/future/Mont_Fleur.pdf

Be ready to discuss readings in class

Research Assignement

Syllabus MBA 698 Sec 1 -- Strategic Scenario Planning Page 5 of 7 Spring 2005 1. Look for at least 3 different news items that include a prediction of the future or an implied prediction

Write a paragraph or two addressing the following issues:

* What leads the writer or the quoted individual to make the prediction? * What evidence or sources do they present? * How does the prediction used? To support a decision? To advise a certain course of action? *How confident do you feel about this prediction?

2. Look for at least 3 different news items that include a statement of uncertainty about the future

Write a paragraph or two addressing the following issues:

* What leads the writer or the quoted individual to make the statement of uncertainty? * What evidence or sources do they present? * How is this statement used? To support a decision? To advise a certain course of action? *Do you agree that the item is uncertain? Why?

2. The “Client” -- 1/24/05

- An overview of the Scenario Planning Creating a planning team within a company Defining the Focal Issue Selecting the time frame

- Meeting with our “Client”

The client has not confirmed as of the date of this version of the syllabus. The tentative schedule is for the client to attend this class.

Independent Research/Assignment: Identify questions and issues where more information is needed.

The remainder of the schedule will be provided once the client is confirmed.

Class dates:

10-Jan-05 First class 17-Jan-05 Martin Luther King’s Birthday Holiday – No class 24-Jan-05 Client meeting 31-Jan-05 Building a Knowledge Base 7-Feb-05 Re-Defining the Research Question (the Focal Issue) 14-Feb-05 Understanding the Influences and Driving Forces Affecting the Focal Syllabus MBA 698 Sec 1 -- Strategic Scenario Planning Page 6 of 7 Spring 2005 Issue 21-Feb-05 Presidents’ Day Holiday – No class 28-Feb-05 Revisiting the Driving Forces Adding to Our Knowledge Base & Identifying Critical Uncertainties 7-Mar-05 Selecting the Scenario Logics 14-Mar-05 Creating the First Drafts of the Future Scenarios 21-Mar-05 Spring Break – No class 28-Mar-05 Creating the Final Scenarios 4-Apr-05 Scenarios and Strategies 11-Apr-05 Scenarios and Strategies Continued 18-Apr-05 Identifying Leading Indicators of Change & "Backcasting" 25-Apr-05 Presentations to client Last Day of class

Syllabus MBA 698 Sec 1 -- Strategic Scenario Planning Page 7 of 7 Spring 2005