Food Insecurity Analysis of Gujarat

World Food Programme India - 1 - FOOD INSECURITY IN GUJARAT : A DISTRICT LEVEL ANALYSIS

OBJECTIVE, METHODOLOGY AND DATABASE

The objective of the food insecurity and vulnerability analysis is to identify districts, which are highly vulnerable to food insecurity within the food insecure states of India (as identified in the Food Insecurity Atlas of India – MSSRF/WFP). The analysis is intended to ensure that the interventions are directed to the most food insecure areas and thus improve the programme effectiveness.

The analysis is primarily based on secondary data from the Central and State Government agencies. In order to capture food insecurity, a number of developmental indicators have been considered.

The analysis was undertaken in two stages, after a detailed examination of the relative importance of the indicators, based on inter-correlation analysis. In the first phase, 21 indicators were considered for the analysis, covering different dimensions of food insecurity, viz. Access, Availability, Utilization, and Disaster (see Figure 1 for the conceptual framework):

Fig. - 1 Conceptual Framework for Food Insecurity Analysis

Availability Access

Targeting

Vulnerability to Utilisation Natural Disaster

- 2 - The indicators are: i. 1Per capita cereal production. (Based on different issues of Agricultural Situation in India - 1995) - Availability ii. Rate of seasonality in the production of cereal crops (Based on different issues of Agricultural Situation in India - 1995) - Availability iii. Proneness to disaster - flood, drought, etc. (Based on NATMO Disaster Map of India) - Disaster iv. Percentage of Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe population (Census of India - 1991) - Access v. Percentage of illiterate people (Census of India - 1991) - Access vi. 2Gender disparity in literacy (Based on Census of India - 1991) - Access vii. Percentage of people below poverty line (Based on NSS sub-regional data - 1993-94) - Access viii. 3Percentage of child workers (Based on Census of India - 1991) - Access ix. Percentage of agricultural labourers among the total main workers (Census of India - 1991) - Access x. Percentage of marginal farmers among the total farmers (Based on Agricultural Census of different states) - Access xi. Sex ratio in the age group of 0-9 years of age (Based on Census of India - 1991) - Access xii. Percentage of village without electricity (Based on Census of India - 1991) - Access xiii. Percentage of households without electricity (Based on Census of India - 1991) - Access xiv. Percentage of households not having access to safe drinking water (Based on Census of India - 1991) - Access xv. Number of hospital beds per lakh of population (Profiles of Districts, CMIE - 2000) - Access xvi. Road length per 100 square kilometers(Profiles of Districts, CMIE - 2000) - Access

1 The indicator has been considered as the number of people supported per 100 quintal of cereal production. 2 All the gender disparity indicators have been arrived at by taking the male to female ratio for a developmental indicator and female to male ratio in case of a vulnerability indicator. 3 Percent child labour in main and marginal workers categories together has been considered for the purpose of analysis. - 3 - xvii. 4Infant Mortality Rate (Based on Census of India - 1991) - Utilization xviii. Gender disparity in IMR (Based on Census of India - 1991) - Utilization xix. Under-five mortality rate (Based on Census of India - 1991) - Utilization xx. Disparity in under-five mortality rate (Based on Census of India - 1991) ) - Utilization xxi. Percentage of children stunted (National Family Health Survey, 1992) - Utilization

A correlation matrix was derived to examine the interdependencies between the indicators and also to identify the indicators that are having relevance for the composite food-security analysis. After the correlation analysis, 17 indicators having direct and indirect bearing on the level of food insecurity were retained in the final analysis for constructing the composite indices.

For converting the indicators to indices, the "division by mean" method has been applied to the indicators. In this method, values of the indicators are divided by their simple averages, which gives the indices corresponding to the individual indicators. The index shows the relative level of vulnerability of the districts with respect to a particular indicator. Indices for all the indicators have been so constructed that a higher value of the index would mean higher level of vulnerability. The composite index was constructed by taking simple average of the individual indices, for all the indicators.

The districts have been divided into four categories viz. extreme, high, moderate and low, based on the degree of food insecurity, as revealed from the values of the final average scores of the indices for the districts.

4 Estimates by Rajan and P. Mohanachandran (see Economic and Political Weekly, May 9, 1998, pp. 1120-1140) have been used for all the three states. - 4 - MAPPING

The composite food insecurity map of the state has been arrived by using the composite index derived out of the selected indicators after correlation analysis. The districts are divided into four degrees of food insecurity, viz., extreme, high, moderate and low. The comparisons are strictly within state and hence districts depicted as less food insecure can be said to be better off only in a relative sense.

LIMITATIONS

Data on most of the indicators have been collected from the Census of India reports, published by the Registrar General of India and the NSS volumes brought out by the National Sample Survey Organizations. It would, however, be important to note here that the NSS volumes give data only at the sub- regional level, and not at the district level. In the absence of reliable district level data for a few indicators, it would be important to use this data which gives us an idea about spatial distribution, if any, within a state. Data on the newly formed districts of the state were not available and hence for mapping the figures of the undivided districts were replicated for the new districts.

FOOD INSECURITY IN GUJARAT

AREA, POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY

Gujarat is relatively one of the smaller states in India. The projected population of the state for the year 2000 is 49,806,093, about five percent of the total

- 5 - population of the country. There are 19 districts in the state. The density of the population is 254, lower than the national average of 322. About 65 percent of the people in Gujarat lives in the rural areas.

The Scheduled Tribes constitute 14.92 percent and Scheduled Castes 7.41 percent of the population in the state. Sex ratio in Gujarat is 934, which is above the national average of 927.

The literacy rate in Gujarat is 61.3 percent, higher than the national average of 52.2 percent. Although lower than the male literacy rate, the female literacy rate in Gujarat (48.6 percent) is above the national average (39.3 percent).

Some key demographic features for the state are shown in the following table.

Table: Demographic and Related Indicators for Gujarat

INDICATOR Number/ INDICATOR Number/ Percent Percent

Projected population for year 49,806,093 Literacy Rate 61.3% 2000

Population Density 254 per sq. km Sex Ratio 934

Percent SC+ST population 22.33% Infant Mortality Rate 69

ANALYSIS OF THE FOOD INSECURITY INDICATORS: GUJARAT

1. Population supported per 100 quintal of cereal production5:

5 Only the level of production and not availability, which includes intervention measures, has been considered for the purpose of analysis - 6 - The indicator has been measured as number of people supported by 100 quintal of cereals produced in the district, assuming that the total cereal production is distributed equally amongst the population. As per the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) nutritional norms, 100 quintals of cereal should ideally support 49 persons a year.

Overall, Gujarat is a food deficit state. The data on cereal production show that in Gujarat all the districts have more than 49 people supported by 100 quintals of cereals per annum. There is extremely high population pressure on cereal production in the state. In 13 districts, 100 quintals of population support more than 100 people per annum. The highest population pressure is in Jamnagar (425 people supported by 100 quintals of cereal per annum) and Rajkot (377 people supported by 100 quintals of cereal per annum).

It can be said from the correlation analysis that the areas prone to recurrent natural disasters6 exert high pressure on the level production of cereals in the districts.

2. Seasonality in cereal production:

For the purpose of the analysis, this indicator has been calculated by taking the modulus value of the differential between Rabi and Kharif crops. The differential value for a large number of the districts is more than 1,00,000 tonnes. This reflects high dependence of cereal production on the monsoons. Conversely, this also reflects vulnerability of the state to monsoon failures, which is becoming a recurrent feature. Seven districts - Mahesana, Sabarkantha, Valsad, Panchmahals, Banaskantha, Junagarh and Vadodara -have recorded the differential above 0.1 million tonnes (the differential for Mahesana is 0.32 million tonnes).

6 The correlation coefficient of this indicator with proneness to disasters is positive and significant. - 7 - The pattern of seasonality has high correlation with the percent of people below poverty line and percent of stunted children. It also shows a positive correlation with the infrastructural deprivation indicators.

3. Disaster proneness:

Disaster proneness is characterised by vulnerability to drought, flood or any type of natural calamity, which has a direct impact on production and productivity of crops, livestock or human life or any kind of tangible loss that might affect the economy of the region. The indicator has been constructed by assigning "1" value to the districts which are recurrently affected by natural disasters (based on the National Atlas Map of India on Natural Hazards) and "0" value to districts which are not affected by recurrent natural disasters. Sixteen districts in Gujarat are prone to disaster.

4. Percent of people below the poverty line:

The level of poverty in Gujarat is much lower than the national average. As per the 50th round of the National Sample Survey on Consumption Expenditure (1993), only 24.2 percent of the population in the state is below the poverty line (the national average is 36 percent). Even the cluster of districts in the southern part of the state having the highest percentage of population living below poverty line (28.7 percent) is on the lower side of the national average.

However, at the sub-regional level, the majority of the districts have a higher percentage of the population below the poverty line than the state average. Only the districts in the south-eastern parts of the state (Amreli, Bhavnagar, Jamnagar, Junagarh, Rajkot and Surendranagar) have a lower percentage of the population living below the poverty line, than the state average.

The correlation of this indicator with the distribution of the Scheduled Tribe population is highly positive and significant, which reveals that most of the - 8 - poverty-stricken areas are dominated by the ST population. It also shows a positive and significant correlation with seasonality in cereal crops, thereby conforming the positive relationship between poverty and food insecurity.

5. Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) population:

Gujarat has a higher percentage of ST population than SC population. The state average of the ST population is 18 percent and that of SC is about 7 percent. Thus SC and ST population together constitute approximately 25 percent of the total population.

There is high concentration of SC and ST population in a few pockets of the state. Kachh, Ahmedabad, Surendranagar and Banaskantha have a high concentration of SC population, with more than 10 percent of the total population belonging to SC. The ST population in Dangs, Valsad, Panchmahals and Bharuch is more than 50 percent; in Dangs it is as high as 95 percent.

The correlation of both SC and ST population with the level of poverty is positive and significant, thus revealing the vulnerability of the population in these categories. Furthermore, availability of infrastructural facilities7 is minimal in the areas dominated by the SC and ST population, which aggravates the situation further.

6. Illiteracy:

Literacy is usually seen to have a high correlation with the level of employment. It is also seen as an indicator of the quality of the workforce in a particular region. The illiteracy rate in Gujarat is 38.7 percent, which is lower than the national average of 47.8 percent. Further, female illiteracy in Gujarat is 51.4 percent, which is also lower than the national average of 60.7 percent.

7 Percentage distribution of SC+ST population shows highly positive and significant correlation with the infrastructural deprivation indicators (negative with no. of hospital beds). - 9 - Excepting three districts (Banaskantha, Panchamahals and Dangs), all the districts in Gujarat have lower levels of illiteracy than the national average. Gandhinagar has 27 percent illiteracy, followed by Ahmedabad, Rajkot, Kheda, Valsad, Mahesana and Vadodara, which have less than 45 percent of their people illiterate. Only nine districts have illiteracy more than 50 percent.

The incidence of illiteracy among the SC and ST populations, particularly in the latter, is much higher in the state. The correlation coefficient between SC/ST and illiteracy is highly positive and significant. The level of illiteracy also shows a highly positive and significant correlation with the incidence of child labour.

7. Agricultural labourers:

The data on agricultural labourers have been gathered from the 1991 Census "Economic Tables", published by the Registrar General of India. Agricultural labourers include both landless labourers and marginal farmers. According to the 1991 Census, the percentage of main workers working as agricultural labourers in Gujarat is 22.9 percent, which is lower than the national average of 26.1 percent. Five districts have more than 26 percent of the main workers as agricultural labourer. Bharuch has the highest percentage of main workers as agricultural labourers - 40 percent.

This indicator shows positive correlation with poverty. This indicates that most of the poor people do not have land and as a result work as wage earners. They are, thus, highly food insecure. Furthermore, the correlation of this indicator with illiteracy and disparity in literacy is highly positive and significant. This reveals that where illiteracy, particularly among the females, is higher, the pressure on the primary activities is more. As a result a higher percentage of people earn just subsistence level of income and they are highly vulnerable.

- 10 - 8. Child labour:

The Census of India provides estimates of the number of children working as main and marginal workers at the district level, which have been used for the present analysis. The following table summarises the comparative figures for child labour in India and Gujarat:

Table: Percentage of working children (in the age group of 5-14 years) in India and Gujarat Category India Gujarat Main workers (Boys+Girls) 3.18% 2.65% Main and marginal workers (Boys+Girls) 3.59% 3.15% Main workers (Girls) 5.32% 5.03% Main and marginal workers (Girls) 5.68% 4.67% Source: Census of India (1991): Working Children in India: An Analysis of the 1991 Census Data, Registrar General of India, New Delhi

The analysis indicates that six districts have higher percentage of child labour than the national average and eight above the state average. The percent of children working in Bhavnagar is 5.74%, followed by Banaskantha with 5.15%.

Studies at the national level have revealed child labour to have positive correlation with illiteracy and poverty. The correlation of the percent of child labour with illiteracy rate is positive and highly significant. This reveals that rather than sending the children to the school, the poor send them to work.

9. Gender disparity in literacy:

There is a high disparity in the literacy rates between males and females, particularly in the rural areas. In this analysis, gender disparity in literacy has been measured as number of literate females per thousand literate males. In Gujarat, there are 627 literate females per 1000 literate males, which is higher than the national average of 565.

- 11 - The district level analysis shows that almost all the districts have more than thousand literate males per thousand literate females. In two districts, Banaskantha and Panchmahals, more than two thousand males are literate in every thousand literate females.

The analysis shows that the incidence of discrimination against the females - in terms of literacy - is much higher among the poorer sections of the people, particularly in the rural areas. This could be inferred from the positive correlation of the indicator with poverty and disparity in mortality rates, both for infants and children below the age of five years. It also shows high correlation with stunting, child labour and illiteracy.

11. Infant and under-five mortality rate, and gender disparity:

Infant mortality rate in Gujarat is 69. In eight districts, IMR is more than 69. Among these, six districts (Mahesana, Panchmahals, Kheda, Banaskantha, Dangs and Sabarkantha) have the figure above 80. It is lowest in Surendranagar (35).

Under five mortality rate in the state is 85. In nine districts, more than 85 children die in this age group. The figures for Mahesana and Panchmahals, are 124 and 122, respectively. Followed by them are Kheda, Dangs, Banaskantha, Surendranagar and Sabarkantha, where more than one hundred children (under five years of age) die in every 1000 of their population. The figure is the lowest for Valsad (46).

Disparity in IMR and under-five mortality rate is measured as the number of female deaths per thousand male deaths in the respective age/ age-group. While the level of IMR and U5-MR are less in Gujarat than the national average, the gender disparity in both the indicators is higher. Excepting four districts (Amreli, Bharuch, Dangs and Valsad), in all other districts more than 1,000 female infants die per 1,000 deaths among their male counterpart. In ten - 12 - districts, more than 1100 infants die per 1000 deaths among the male infants. The figure for Jamnagar is the highest, followed by Bhavnagar, Mahesana and Banaskantha.

Similarly, except Dangs, Bharuch and Valsad, the mortality rate among female children below the age of five years is more than 1,000 per 1,000 deaths among their male counterpart for all the districts. While in Bhavnagar and Mahesana, 1,480 female children die per 1,000 deaths among male children, in Banaskantha and Jamnagar, about 1,320 female children die per 1,000 male child deaths. In thirteen districts, more than 1100 girls die per thousand deaths among the girls, in this age group.

As mentioned in the previous section, the incidence of both IMR and CMR is high in the poorer districts of the state. All the four indicators related to mortality show positive correlation with poverty, stunting, illiteracy, disparity in literacy and the distribution of SC and ST population.

12. Percentage of Children (1-5 years) suffering from stunting:

For this indicator, the sub-regional level data brought out by National Sample Survey Organisations have been used in the analysis. Most of the districts in Gujarat look vulnerable in terms of this indicator, 45 percent (the lowest in the state) of the children in the age group of 1-5 years, suffering from stunting in the Saurashtra area. The cluster of districts in the eastern and northern plains of the state (Panchmahals, Vadodara, Banaskantha, Kachh, Mahesana, and Sabarkantha) show the figure at 53.5 percent.

12. Male female ratio in the age group of 0-9 years:

Sex ratio in the age group of 0-9 years serves as an important indicator for the analysis of gender disparity. In the present analysis the number of boys per

- 13 - 1000 girls in the age group of 0-9 years has been considered to analyse the degree of vulnerability of the girl children in different districts.

This indicator shows discrimination against the girl child in terms of the choice of the people preferring a male child. Girl children have higher mortality rate and are also vulnerable to abortion at the foetal stage. This is attributed to the fact that while a male child is thought to be an asset, a girl child is considered a liability. This is true especially of the rural areas.

So far as this indicator is concerned, all but four districts (Surat, Valsad, Dangs and Panchmahals) show more than 1050 boys per 1000 girls. The figure for Gandhinagar is the highest at 1115 boys per 1000 girls.

14. Percent of villages and households without electricity:

Villages in almost all the districts of Gujarat have got electricity connection, excepting Junagarh, which has about 7 percent of the villages without electricity. About 34 percent of the households in Gujarat, however, are yet to be provided with electricity. The percent of households without electricity is 69% in Panchmahals, followed by Banaskantha with 55 percent. Only Bhavnagar, Junagarh and Rajkot have more than 80 percent of their households connected with electricity. This shows the poor household level availability of infrastructural facilities in majority of the districts in Gujarat.

15. Percentage of households without safe drinking water:

It is surprising to note that in three districts, more than 50 percent of the households do not have access to potable water. While in Bharuch, 92 percent of the households do not have access to safe drinking water, in Dangs it is 86 percent. Only Mahesana, Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar have more than 80 percent of the population having free access to potable water.

- 14 - 16. 8Road length per 100 square kilometres:

The average length of road availability in the state is very low at 44 kilometres per 100 sq. km. Excepting five districts, all other districts have less than 44 km of road per 100 square kilometres. The road length is as low as six and nine kilometres, respectively for Vadodara and Kachh. This, along with the household level connectivity of electricity, shows the poor level of infrastructural facilities in Gujarat.

17. Number of hospital beds per lakh of population:

Excepting Ahmedabad, Kheda, Bhavnagar and Mahesana, which are among the most industrialised and urbanised districts in Gujarat, all the other districts have less than 200 hospital beds per lakh population. Amreli has only 99 hospital beds per lakh population. Ahmedabad has the highest number of hospital beds (328) per lakh population.

The above analysis reveals that the distribution of infrastructural services is highly disparate and concentrated more in the well-off pockets in the state. The analysis shows that most of the vulnerable districts (with higher levels of poverty, stunting, illiteracy and dominated by the SC/ST population) are marked with much higher level of infrastructural deprivation than the less vulnerable districts. The correlation of all the infrastructural deprivation indicators, with most of the vulnerability indicators mentioned above are positive and significant.

8 The figures for road length used in the analysis are for the year 1990. - 15 - ANALYSIS OF THE COMPOSITE FOOD INSECURITY INDICES FOR GUJARAT

The districts have been divided into four categories9 viz. extreme, high, moderate, and low, based on the degree of food insecurity as calculated from the values of the final average scores of the indices for the districts. The methodology has been already explained in the methodology section.

The districts, having the composite index of 1.17 or more have been classified as extremely vulnerable. While the districts having a score between 1.17 and 1.0, have been categorised as highly vulnerable, those between 1.0 and 0.9 were put under the category of moderately vulnerable districts. The relatively food secure districts have been included in the last category - low food insecure districts. The districts with a score less than 0.90 have been included in the low food insecure category.

The analysis reveals that only three districts (Panchmahals, Bharuch and Dangs) in Gujarat come under the most vulnerable (extreme) category. Panchmahals appears to be the most vulnerable/ food insecure districts in the state. The next most vulnerable group - coming in the "high" category - includes five districts. Vadodara and Valsad appear at the top of the table, followed by Kachh, Banaskantha and Sabarkantha.

While six districts of the state come under the moderately vulnerable category, five districts (Kheda, Amreli, Rajkot, Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar) come out to be the relatively food secure. The analysis reveals that Gandhinagar, which has a composite index of 0.77, looks to be the least vulnerable district in the state.

9 The districts, formed after the year 1991 have been assigned the average composite value of the scores for the parent district. - 16 -